红枣产业日报 2025-12-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) -75 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 8820 | | 125602 | 1552 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) -4168 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | -14588 | | 1092 | 0 | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) 0 | 1035 | | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 6.5 | | 4.35 | 0 | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 5.65 | | 4.45 | 0 | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) 0 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 5.15 | | 9.9 | 0 | | | 河北红枣特级价格(元/公斤) -0.05 广东红枣特级价格(日,元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a trend where the main contract is oscillating stronger. The fundamentals are in a stage of increasing supply and stable high - level demand. The industry inventory is continuously decreasing, and the outlook is positive. In the options market, the sentiment is bearish with a slightly rising implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The trading strategy is to trade lightly with a slightly stronger oscillation and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 114,380 yuan/ton, up 2980 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 146,949 hands, up 8070 hands; the position of the main contract is 671,889 hands, up 3060 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 1,580 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZFE are 16,411 hands/ton, up 900 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 99,000 yuan/ton, up 1350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 96,350 yuan/ton, up 1300 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 15,380 yuan/ton, down 1630 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 1320 US dollars; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone is 12,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,575 yuan/ton, up 174 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,980 tons, up 2450 tons; the monthly import volume is 22,055.19 tons, down 1825.51 tons; the monthly export volume is 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged. The monthly output of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate (daily) is 37,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 346,600 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary materials (811 type) in China is 167,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (622 power type) in China is 148,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (523 single - crystal type) in China is 159,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 40,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 63%, down 1%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,880,000 units, up 108,000 units; the monthly sales are 1,823,000 units, up 108,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 47.48%, up 0.74%; the cumulative sales are 14,780,000 units, up 3,518,000 units; the monthly export volume is 300,000 units, up 44,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 2.315 million units, up 1.174 million units [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total holding of call options is 113,809 contracts, down 5198; the total holding of put options is 141,148 contracts, up 13,277; the put - call ratio of total holdings is 124.02%, up 16.5735%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.40%, up 0.0170% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In November 2025, China imported 22,055 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 15%. From January to November, the cumulative import was 219,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. In November, China exported 759 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 209% and a year - on - year increase of 248%. From January to November, the cumulative export was 4378 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.6% [2] - In November 2025, China's spodumene import volume reached 729,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 12%, equivalent to about 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia was the main source of incremental imports, with 425,000 tons imported in that month, a significant month - on - month increase of 44%, accounting for 58% of the total import [2] - In November 2025, China's lithium hydroxide export volume was 3357 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17% and a year - on - year decrease of 39%. Exports to South Korea and Japan accounted for 87% of the total export volume. In November, China imported 1420 tons of lithium hydroxide, a month - on - month increase of 11% [2] - The resumption of production at Ningde Times' Yichun Jianxiawo lithium mine has new progress. On December 19, the Yichun Tendering Network in Jiangxi Province released the first environmental impact assessment information publicity for the mining project of the lithium mine [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading of apples in Shandong and Shaanxi production areas remains sluggish, with slow shipment and increased willingness of fruit growers to sell at market prices. The shipment in Gansu production area is okay, especially the inventory of high - cost - effective Fuji apples is actively traded. The trading atmosphere of late - Fuji apples remains light, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase fruit growers' goods has declined. Good - quality apple prices remain firm, while the prices of general and lower - quality apples have loosened. As of December 18, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the storage - capacity ratios in Shandong and Shaanxi also decreased. The prices of fruit growers' goods in Shaanxi's secondary production areas slightly declined, and the sales area market shipment is still poor. The increasing supply of tangerines and other citrus fruits impacts apple sales. With the current weak demand for double - festival stocking, there is a possibility of a continued short - term price decline. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9149 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 888 compared to the previous period; the main - contract position volume is 6025 hands, and the net long - order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 148,778 hands, with a decrease of 1940 compared to the previous period. [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, with no change compared to the previous period. The price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag, above 70) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, also with no change. [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons. The fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, with an increase of 168.34 compared to the previous period, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.14 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.01. The national apple cold - storage total inventory is 752.98 million tons, with a decrease of 5.57 million tons. The storage - capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.57, and that in Shaanxi is 0.53. The monthly export quantity of apples is 80,000 tons, with an increase of 10,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts decreased by 503,616 US dollars, and the year - on - year monthly export amount of apples decreased by 14.3%. The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin, with no change. [2] Downstream Situation - The fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.68 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.06; the price of bananas is 6.6 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.27; the price of watermelons is 5.64 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.17. The early - morning average daily vehicle arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 17.2 vehicles, with an increase of 2.6; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 20.6 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 27.6 vehicles, with an increase of 3.8. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 24.02%, and that of at - the - money put options is 24.01%, both with an increase of 0.33 compared to the previous period. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a view of "oscillating on the upside with attention to risk control" for the RB2605 contract of rebar [2]. 2. Core View - On Monday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated strongly. Macroscopically, the State Council executive meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference, requiring to accelerate the formulation of specific implementation plans and ensure a good start for the "14th Five - Year Plan". In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased slightly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 39.83% and an expanding year - on - year decline; apparent demand increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. Overall, in the off - season of consumption, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, but the rebound of furnace materials raises the cost. Coupled with low production and low inventory of rebar, it supports the steel price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis with a stable red column [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,126 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the trading volume is 1,591,974 lots, up 23,108 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 9,538 lots, down 20,860 lots; the spread between RB1 - 5 contracts is 2 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the SHFE is 82,284 tons, unchanged; the spread between HC2605 - RB2605 contracts is 151 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price in Hangzhou (actual weight) is 3,415 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,510 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract is 204 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 797 yuan/wet ton, up 1 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 155.0814 million tons, up 0.8028 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 517,800 tons, up 18,200 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3358 million tons, down 16,400 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.1313 million tons, up 14,800 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.45%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 84.91%, down 0.99 percentage points. The output of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.8168 million tons, up 29,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 39.83%, up 0.64 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.3954 million tons, down 12,600 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.13 million tons, down 257,000 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output is 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar is 1.434 million tons, up 59,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 948,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.90, down 0.52; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is - 2.60%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion is - 15.90%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is - 1.10%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.56066 billion square meters, down 31.27 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 534.57 million square meters, down 43.95 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale is 393.61 million square meters, up 2.84 million square meters [2]. f. Industry News - The third round of the fifth batch of 10 central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams were stationed in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and 5 central enterprises from November 16 - 19, 2025, and carried out special inspections on the ecological and environmental protection of the Grand Canal in 8 provinces and cities, and recently completed the on - site inspection stage. On December 19, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin proposed a third - round price cut for coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton cut for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton cut for dry - quenched coke, to be implemented at zero o'clock on December 22, 2025, and it is expected that the third - round price cut for coke will be fully implemented on Monday [2].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资， 责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可， 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | | 2025/12/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 21.0↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 1000.860 | | 16210 | +834.00↑ | | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) +12628.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 202,290.00 | | 17,327.00 | -335.00↓ | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The economic indicators released in November put pressure on the upside of A-shares, but the positive tone set by the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference provides strong support for the bottom of the A-share market. - This week, the market is in a macro data vacuum period, and it will maintain range - bound trading in the absence of clear trading signals. - Although the US dollar index has rebounded recently, the RMB exchange rate is strengthening, supporting the expectation of loose monetary policy in January 2026. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2603) rose to 4564.8, up 40.0; the IM main contract (2603) rose to 7203.6, up 61.6. - **Contract Spreads**: Most of the spreads between different contracts increased, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread rising to 1572.4, up 27.2. - **Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the IF top 20 net position increased by 1372.0 to - 26,070.00. - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC main contracts decreased, while the A - share trading volume and margin trading balance increased. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Index Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.23%. - **Market Sentiment**: The north - bound trading volume increased, the main funds showed an inflow, and the proportion of rising stocks decreased. [2] 3.3 Industry News - The LPR remained unchanged in December, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5%. - A - share major indexes closed higher, with most industry sectors rising. The communication sector was strong, while the media and banking sectors declined. - Overseas, the US November CPI dropped more than expected, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January. Domestically, the economic fundamentals were weak in November, and the PPI - CPI gap widened for two consecutive months, with deflation pressure remaining. [2] 3.4 Key Events to Watch - The US, Europe, and Hong Kong will be closed for Christmas from December 24 - 25. - China's November industrial enterprise profits data will be released at 9:30 on December 27. [3]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/12/22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 781.50 | +1.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 551,953 | +17048↑ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 16 | -2.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of excess supply and stable demand. Traders are advised to conduct light - position oscillating trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks[2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market is likely to be in a state of tight supply - demand balance with a slight reduction in industrial inventory and long - term positive expectations. Traders are recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades on dips, controlling the rhythm and trading risks[2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may face a situation of slightly decreasing supply and slowing demand, with high - level industrial inventory and slight destocking. Traders are suggested to conduct light - position oscillating trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks[2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 22,220 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main contract position was 314,299 lots, down 7,940 lots; the LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,945 US dollars/ton, up 29 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 519,600 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.54, down 0.06[2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,498 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 111 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the main contract position was 151,207 lots, down 11,147 lots; the inventory of alumina was 197,566 tons, down 61,270 tons[2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 21,290 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 95 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main contract position was 17,184 lots, down 32 lots[2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 21,930 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 21,840 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan[2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,655 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan[2]. Upstream Situation - The production of alumina was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons[2]. - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and fragments was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export quantity was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons; the export quantity of alumina was 17.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the import quantity was 23.24 million tons, up 4.31 million tons[2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,524.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the production of electrolytic aluminum was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons[2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy was 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons[2]. Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles; the National Housing Prosperity Index was 91.90, down 0.52[2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 12.82%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.38%, down 0.07%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV was 13.48%, up 0.0147; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.60, down 0.0142[2]. Industry News - The central economic work conference listed "insisting on innovation - driven and accelerating the cultivation and growth of new kinetic energy" as one of the key tasks for next year's economic work, and relevant departments are actively deploying the work focus for 2026[2]. - The central economic work conference proposed to "promote the construction of a unified national market in depth and rectify 'involution - style' competition", and for the first time proposed to formulate regulations on the construction of a unified national market. The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a compliance guide on price behavior in the automotive industry[2]. - In the context of the overall real - estate sales market not yet turning positive, some cities showed a stable and positive trend. From January to November this year, the total transaction volume of new and second - hand houses in seven cities such as Shenzhen and Nanchang increased by more than 5% year - on - year[2]. - Different Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts. Some advocated cutting rates, some thought it was due to technical factors and were not in a hurry to adjust monetary policy, and some were worried about high inflation and preferred to keep interest rates stable until next spring[2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Today, the platinum and palladium futures main contracts both hit the daily limit. Persistent physical spot shortages and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly increased the price elasticity of platinum and palladium recently. The London platinum lease rate continues to rise, and palladium ETF holdings continue to increase, exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction. High domestic - foreign price differentials have spurred arbitrage motives, pushing up spot prices and amplifying futures price elasticity. In the medium to long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit pattern, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support prices. The parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may lead to a short - term correction risk due to basis repair needs. The weekly resistance and support levels for London platinum spot are $2100/ounce and $1800/ounce respectively, and for London palladium spot are $1800/ounce and $1500/ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 568.45 yuan/gram, up 37.15 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 508.45 yuan/gram, up 33.25 yuan. The platinum main contract's open interest is 10387 hands, down 277 hands; the palladium main contract's open interest is 3179 hands, up 90 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 533.57 yuan/gram, up 21.92 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 429 yuan/gram, unchanged. The platinum main contract's basis is - 34.88 yuan/gram, down 15.23 yuan; the palladium main contract's basis is - 79.45 yuan/gram, down 33.25 yuan. The weekly non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC are 9966 contracts, down 243 contracts; those of palladium are 3003 contracts, down 342 contracts [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.72, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, up 0.04%. The VIX volatility index is 14.91, down 1.96 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset agrees with Goolsbee that there is still sufficient room for interest - rate cuts. Trump hopes the Fed Chairman can make an independent judgment, and Trump's aides will discuss housing policies in Florida and are expected to announce a "major" housing plan soon. Fed's Harker prefers to keep interest rates stable before spring, suggests the neutral rate is higher than commonly thought, and opposes near - term interest - rate cuts due to concerns about high inflation. New York Fed President Williams says there is no urgency to cut interest rates again, strengthening the market's expectation of a short - term pause in rate cuts. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 21%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 79%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 47.1%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 43.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 9.5% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On December 22 at 23:00, the US PCE price index month - on - month; on December 23 at 21:30, the US GDP deflator quarter - on - quarter; on December 24 at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the US corn is in the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but the reduction of the US corn carry - over inventory forecast by USDA supports the price. In the domestic market, the increased acquisition by reserve warehouses in the Northeast provides support, yet high prices limit purchasing enthusiasm, and the price is adjusting slightly. The corn futures price has fallen from its high recently, so short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the supply pressure increases due to sufficient raw material supply and rising industry operating rates. However, holiday备货 and the shift of some downstream customers from expensive tapioca starch may boost demand. Affected by the decline in corn, the starch price has also dropped, and short - term observation is advised [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2497 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (3 - 5) is - 1 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The futures closing price of CBOT corn is 443.25 cents/bushel, down 0.75 cents [2]. - Futures positions (active contract): 983336 hands for yellow corn, down 21181 hands; 61003 hands for corn starch, down 18128 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 91573 hands for corn and - 32111 hands for corn starch [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 52466 hands for yellow corn, down 184 hands; 2500 hands for corn starch, unchanged. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 330 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. Outer Market - CBOT: The total corn positions are 1473739 contracts, up 13996 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions of corn are 67530 contracts, down 19566 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2347.65 yuan/ton, down 0.98 yuan; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2057.76 yuan/ton, up 0.02 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 68 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of the corn main contract is 155.65 yuan/ton, down 0.98 yuan [2]. - The price difference between Shandong starch and corn is 410 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan; the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 712 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 204 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown areas: 425.53 million hectares in the US, 53 million hectares in Brazil, 295 million hectares in China, and 32 million hectares in Ukraine. Forecasted yields: 131 million tons in the US, 22.6 million tons in Brazil, 44.3 million tons in China, 7.5 million tons in Argentina, and 32 million tons in Ukraine [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventories: 13.8 million tons in southern ports, 29 million tons in northern ports. The inventory of deep - processed corn is 294 million tons, up 18.6 million tons. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 107.4 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [2]. - Import volume of corn is 30 million tons; export volume of corn starch is 19.17 million tons, up 6.39 million tons. The monthly output of feed is 20.9 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days are 29.48 days, down 0.05 days. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 2 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; in Hebei is 71 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The deep - processed corn consumption is 141.29 million tons, down 0.38 million tons. The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 62.31%, down 3%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 65.22%, down 0.53% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.45%, down 0.4%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.5%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 7.94%, up 0.26%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 7.95%, up 0.27% [2]. Industry News - Consultancy Safras & Mercado forecasts Brazil's 2025/26 corn output at 142.875 million tons, lower than the previous forecast but higher than 2024/25. The US Department of Agriculture will not issue more aid beyond the $12 billion plan, and the US corn is in the export peak season with high supply pressure [2].