投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年03月26日08时21分 报告导读： 消息面上，新疆有更多钢企压减粗钢产量 ，提振多头信心。我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所回落，厂库继续下降，社库回落，总库 存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，数据利多螺纹热卷的价格。目前房地产仍处于筑底的过程中 ，下游需求主要看热卷。从技术上看，目前期价围绕 10 日均线进行震荡，整体处于震荡偏弱的状态。 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 3220 3386 | 16 -10 | 0.50% -0.29% | 29 16 | 0.91% 0.47% | | | 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3280 | 20 | 0.61% | 30 | 0.92% | | | 热轧板卷现 ...

Group 1: Trade and Economic Challenges - The US has imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, raising the cumulative tariff to 20%, with the overall tariff rate on Chinese exports potentially reaching 45%[7] - The trade war has led to a significant decline in bilateral trade, with the proportion of US imports from China dropping from 18% in 2018 to 11% in 2023[9] - China's export growth is expected to face further pressure, with a forecasted decline in export growth for 2025 due to rising tariffs and stricter "origin" requirements[9] Group 2: Real Estate Market Dynamics - In the first two months of the year, national real estate development investment was 1,072 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.8%[13] - New housing sales area decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[13] - The pressure on real estate companies to deliver projects is increasing, with a significant rise in unsold residential properties, which grew by 6.6% year-on-year[13] Group 3: Fixed Asset Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 52,619 billion yuan in January-February, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%[19] - Consumer confidence remains low, with per capita disposable income growth at only 3.9%, leading to a decline in consumption willingness[21] - Retail sales in January-February totaled 83,731 billion yuan, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 4.0%[21] Group 4: Policy Responses and Economic Outlook - The fiscal deficit is projected to increase to 5.66 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of around 4%, aimed at stimulating economic growth[26] - Monetary policy is expected to shift towards easing, with indications of potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[30] - The overall economic environment is anticipated to stabilize in the second quarter, despite ongoing pressures from the trade war and domestic challenges[37]

| 一、原油与黄金的基本属性 2 | | --- | | 二、影响黄金与原油的因素分析 2 | | 2.1 经济增长是决定原油与黄金的价格走势的重要因素 2 | | 2.2 通胀预期与美联储货币政策预期对黄金与原油价格形成显著驱动 3 | | 2.3 地缘政治风险是影响油价和金价的重要因素之一 4 | | 三、黄金与原油相关性分析 4 | | 四、金油比分析与展望 6 | | 4.1 金油比分析 6 | | 4.2 金油比展望 8 | 作为全球大宗商品市场中的两大核心资产，原油与黄金的价格波动对各国经济稳定具有重要 影响。近年来，国际政治经济格局的深刻变化使得这两种商品的价格走势备受市场关注。本文旨 在深入探讨原油与黄金之间的内在关联，分析其价格联动机制。具体而言，我们将重点研究以下 问题：两者之间存在何种经济逻辑关系？为何在某些市场周期中表现出显著的价格相关性，而在 其他时期却呈现背离走势？通过对历史数据和市场机制的系统性分析，本文将揭示原油与黄金价 格关系的动态特征及其背后的驱动因素。 一、原油与黄金的基本属性 原油，被誉为"工业的血液"或"黑金"，因其在工业生产中的不可替代性和巨大的经济价值 而得名。作 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年03月25日08时14分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 较上日 较上周 | 单位 | 3月24日 | | | | | | | 绝对值 百分比 百分比 | | | | 绝对值 | | | | 原油期货 | Sc -0.10 -0.02% | 元/桶 | 534.40 | | | 11.00 | 2.10% | | | WTI - 0 | 美元/桶 | 68.29 | | | 0.81 | 1.20% | | | Brent 0.92 1.28% | 美元/桶 | 73.03 | | | 2.10 | 2.96% | | 内外价差 | Sc-WTI -0.03 -0.56% | 美元/桶 | 6.16 | | | 0.63 | 11.37% | | | Sc-Brent -0.95 | 美元/桶 | 1.42 | -40.21% | | -0.66 | -31.77% | | | Brent-WTI 2.37 99.63% ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年03月25日08时25分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 消息面上，新疆钢企压减粗钢产量 10%，提振多头信心。我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所回落，厂库继续下降，社库回落，总库存 继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，数据利多螺纹热卷的价格。明目前房地产仍处于筑底的过程中 。从技术上看，目前期价围绕 10 日均线进行震荡 操作建议： 逢低轻仓做多，已经做多的，多单可轻仓持有 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3204 | 48 | 1.52% | -13 | -0.40% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3396 | 45 | 1.34% | 10 | 0.30% | | | 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3260 | 40 | 1.2 ...