投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年08月06日16时53分 投资咨询系列报告 二、白银 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收跌0.08%，沪银主力收涨1.19%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议争议再起，避险需求上行；美国经 济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，特朗普新一轮关税引发全球股市暴跌，多国寻求重新谈判。特朗普威 胁大幅提高印度商品关税，俄油和地缘政治导致贸易冲突升级。③货币属性方面，美国7月就业增长弱于预期，此前两个月的非农 就业岗位增幅遭大幅下修25.8万个，暗示劳动力市场状况急剧恶化，使得美联储9月降息的可能性增加。目前市场预期美联储9月 降息概率从非农前40%左右快递飙升至80附近%，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至2次。关税飙升导致美国6月贸易逆差创近两年最 低，对华逆差创21年来新低。美元指数和美债收益遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格 。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, increasing the demand for hedging, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with the weakening employment leading to a rebound in the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in steps in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreement disputes increase hedging demand; the risk of US economic stagflation rises, and the weak employment situation leads to a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations. The new round of tariffs by Trump has caused a global stock market crash, and many countries are seeking renegotiation. The weak US employment growth in July and the significant downward revision of non - farm payrolls in the previous two months have increased the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September has soared from about 40% to about 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 3. The US dollar index and US bond yields have fallen under pressure. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold have increased, and domestic prices like Shanghai gold and gold T + D have also risen. There are changes in positions, inventories, and other aspects. For example, the position of Comex gold has decreased by 0.73% compared with the previous week, and the inventory of Comex gold has decreased by 1.08% [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai gold of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total increased by 7,617, and the net short positions decreased by 133 [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There are slight reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight increase in recent visible inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver have changed, and domestic prices like Shanghai silver and silver T + D have also adjusted. There are also changes in positions, inventories, etc. For example, the position of Comex silver has decreased by 1.93% compared with the previous week, and the visible inventory has increased by 0.46% [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai silver of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total decreased by 2,778, and the net short positions increased by 5,610 [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets have decreased by 0.00%. There are also changes in indicators such as M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and US dollar index [8]. - **Inflation in the US**: Indicators such as CPI, core CPI, and PCE price index have changed. For example, the year - on - year CPI has increased by 0.30% [10]. - **US Economic Growth**: GDP has changed both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate has increased by 0.10%, and other labor - market indicators have also adjusted [10]. - **US Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index has increased by 3.13%, while new home sales have decreased by 19.64% [10]. - **US Consumption**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditures, and other indicators have changed. For example, the year - on - year retail sales have decreased by 1.84% [10]. - **US Industry**: The industrial production index has increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate has increased by 0.16% [10]. - **US Trade**: Exports and imports have changed both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the trade balance has decreased by 18.69% [10]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The Michigan consumer confidence index has increased by 9.50%, while the small - and - medium - sized enterprise optimism index has decreased by 0.20% [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: The gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have their own changes, and the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has also adjusted. For example, the global proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has increased by 4.11% [12]. - **Hedging Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index has increased by 51.84%, and the VIX index has decreased by 5.54% [12]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index has decreased by 2.70%, and the offshore RMB has increased by 0.65% [12]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in different periods from September 2025 to December 2026 is presented in the table, showing the changing trends of market expectations for interest - rate cuts [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since late 2022, the continuous uptrend of Shanghai Gold's main contract has been driven by factors such as the risk - aversion and interest - rate cut logics. Recently, with the easing of trade - war risk aversion and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations, precious metals face increased pressure to correct. Gold has been oscillating at a high level after the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, and its risk - aversion value has a more significant impact. Silver, which previously had higher volatility than gold but lower average gains in recent years due to its industrial attributes, has seen consecutive catch - up gains since the second half of the year, with its recent gains exceeding those of gold [6][12]. - Risk - aversion events often trigger market movements, while the long - term trend is jointly determined by the monetary and commodity attributes of precious metals. In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have shown significant divergence. The difference in interest - rate cut expectations between non - US currencies and the US is crucial, and the Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage. Currently, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September, with the next possible rate cut in October 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space by the end of the year has dropped to 25 basis points [7][20][23]. - The restructuring of the economic system is driving the reconstruction of the monetary system, and the upward movement of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance. The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has recently corrected from its high level, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe yield spread is oscillating upwards, while the US - China yield spread has significantly declined. Trade wars have pushed up US inflation expectations, putting the Fed in a dilemma, and the expected real yield of US Treasuries has decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [8][42][46]. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Recent Market Review - Since late 2022, Shanghai Gold's main contract has approximately doubled, with the risk - aversion and interest - rate cut logics jointly driving the trend. Recently, the easing of trade - war risk aversion and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations have increased the correction pressure on precious metals [12]. - After the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, gold has been oscillating at a high level. Compared with the previous two bull markets, the Fed has been more cautious in cutting interest rates during this bull market, and the risk - aversion value of gold has a more significant impact [15]. - Previously, silver had higher volatility than gold, but in recent years, its average gains have been lower than those of gold due to the significant drag of its industrial attributes. Since the second half of the year, silver has seen consecutive catch - up gains, with its gains exceeding those of gold [17]. II. Precious Metals Investment Logic Evolution - Risk - aversion events often trigger market movements, and the long - term trend is jointly determined by the monetary and commodity attributes of precious metals [20]. - In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have shown significant divergence. Non - US currencies have a significant impact on precious metals, and the difference in interest - rate cut expectations between non - US currencies and the US is particularly crucial. The Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage [23]. - In terms of the comparison of interest rates among major economies, non - US economies cut interest rates faster than the US in the early stage, but recently, the pace of interest - rate cuts in non - US economies has slowed down, and the expected yield spread has declined from its high level [24]. - Currently, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September, with the next possible rate cut in October 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space by the end of the year has dropped to 25 basis points, which is higher than the June dot - plot [27]. - Comparing the inflation rates of major economies, inflation in major economies has recently rebounded as a whole, and trade wars may bring widespread inflationary pressure [31]. - In terms of the economic growth rates of major economies, the US growth rate has slowed down but remains strong overall, while the growth rates of non - US economies are rising from the bottom [34]. - According to the latest July 2025 IMF economic growth rate forecast, the expected economic growth rates of the US for this year and next year are 1.9% and 2%, respectively, and those of the Eurozone are 1% and 1.2%, respectively. The pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has been somewhat alleviated [37]. III. Precious Metals Future Trend Outlook - The restructuring of the economic system is driving the reconstruction of the monetary system, and in the medium - to long - term, the upward movement of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance [42]. - In the process of "de - dollarization," the proportion of the US dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves (stock) and international payments (flow) has decreased, while the proportion of gold has increased significantly. However, the US dollar still maintains a dominant position, and "de - dollarization" is still a long - term process [44]. - The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has recently corrected from its high level, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe yield spread is oscillating upwards, while the US - China yield spread has significantly declined [46]. - Trade wars have pushed up US inflation expectations, putting the Fed in a dilemma. The expected real yield of US Treasuries has decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. The US dollar index is in a long - term downward trend but still has strong support [48]. - Regarding the risk - aversion attribute of precious metals, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) of the S&P 500 is in an ultra - low range in recent years and has shown recent fluctuations. The uncertainty of US economic policies has remained high since Trump took office [49]. - In terms of the capital side, since the beginning of this year, the net long positions of gold and silver in CFTC holdings have recently decreased overall. The SPDR Gold ETF and iShare Silver ETF have been continuously reducing their positions since 2021, but have shown an increasing trend again since the beginning of this year [52]. - In 2025, the global gold supply is expected to be stable. The demand for gold jewelry is less affected by high gold prices, and there is still potential for private and central bank investment demand [56]. - The World Silver Institute stated in April that due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, dropping to 117.6 million ounces, approximately 3,658 tons [58]. - Most of Trump's policies have not been implemented yet. The policy expectations in the later stage are short - term negative for precious metals. The trade war has reached a stalemate, and the previous positive factors have been reversed [59]. - From a technical analysis perspective, London Gold is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term but remains bullish in the medium - to long - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance at 3,400 (Shanghai Gold's main contract at around 790) and the support at 3,140 (Shanghai Gold's main contract at around 730) [60]. - London Silver is also expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term but remains bullish in the medium - to long - term. Pay attention to whether it can break through the resistance in the 40 range (Shanghai Silver's main contract at around 9,700) and the effectiveness of the support at 34.8 (Shanghai Silver's main contract at around 8,400) [63]. - The gold - silver ratio is currently at the 8.23% percentile in the past 20 years, with an average value of 70.3990. The expected interest - rate cut is still far off, and the trade war remains uncertain. Anti - involution commodities are under pressure to correct, and the downward trend of the gold - silver ratio has slowed down [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - Policy might correct the over - interpretation of anti - involution previously. During the summer heat, demand will weaken further and inventory is expected to rise. The market focus will shift to the peak - season consumption in August - September. For steel products, short - term short positions can be held, and those not yet in the market can enter short - term short positions after price rebounds. For iron ore, short - term short selling on price rebounds is recommended, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss, and conservative investors should stay on the sidelines [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Products (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Policy and Market News**: Politburo meeting removed "low - price" from "low - price disorderly competition", changed "promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity" to "promote the governance of key industry production capacity", and emphasized optimizing market competition order. The July manufacturing PMI data in China was below expectations, and rapid price increases pressured terminal demand [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week, ribbed bar production and apparent demand decreased from an increasing trend, factory inventory decreased for the third consecutive week, and social inventory increased for the third consecutive week. The total inventory of five major steel products rose, and apparent demand declined. Seasonally, demand will weaken in summer heat, and inventory is expected to rise [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices decreased with reduced positions, and long - position liquidation drove price drops [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short - term short positions. Those not in the market can enter short - term short positions after price rebounds [3]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Ribbed bar futures and spot prices, hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices all decreased. For example, the ribbed bar futures price decreased by 3.32% compared to the previous day and 2.70% compared to last week [3]. - **Production**: Ribbed bar production was 211.06 million tons, a 0.42% decrease from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 322.79 million tons, a 1.67% increase from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: Five - major - product social inventory increased by 1.65%, ribbed bar social inventory increased by 2.99%, and ribbed bar factory inventory decreased by 2.12% [3]. 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Steel mills' profitability is fair, but iron - water production has large downward pressure in the off - season. Even in the peak season, the room for growth is limited. Global iron - ore shipments are high and rising seasonally, and future arrivals are expected to remain high. Port inventory is slowly decreasing, but trade - mine inventory is high [6]. - **Market News**: After the Sino - US trade talks and Politburo meeting, positive factors were exhausted, and prices face large correction pressure [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices stabilized in the short term, the oscillation range narrowed, and prices are expected to follow the trend of ribbed bars [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short selling on price rebounds, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss, and conservative investors should stay on the sidelines [6]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices decreased. For example, the DCE iron - ore futures price decreased by 1.27% compared to the previous day and 3.95% compared to last week [7]. - **Supply**: Australian iron - ore shipments increased by 16.64% week - on - week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 12.19% [7]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased by 0.04%, and trade - mine inventory decreased by 0.11% [7]. 3. Industry Information - **Steel Industry PMI**: In July 2025, the steel industry PMI was 50.5%, up 4.6 percentage points month - on - month, ending two consecutive months of decline and returning to the expansion range. In August, steel demand may continue a weak recovery, steel - mill production may rise slightly, and raw material and steel prices will oscillate [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking - coal long - term agreement price increased in July. Some coking - coal mines' production is restricted, and coking - plant profitability varies by region. The average national ton - coke profit is - 45 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Other Products**: National float - glass inventory decreased for six consecutive weeks, and soda - ash factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks but remains at a high historical level [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. The CFTC silver net long and iShare silver ETF have re - added positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4] Summary by Directory Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, reducing the demand for hedging. The risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, and strong employment and inflation suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - **Risk Aversion Attribute**: After the "constructive talks" between China and the US, the tariff truce is temporarily maintained, and no major breakthrough is announced. The US and the EU reach an agreement to avoid a trade war, with a 15% tariff to be imposed [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The Fed has kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time. Market expectations for the next Fed rate cut are postponed to October, and the expected total rate cut space in 2025 has dropped back to around 25 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strength of the RMB suppresses domestic prices [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] Silver - **Fundamentals**: CFTC silver net long and iShare silver ETF have re - added positions [4] - **Inventory**: The recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.5%, the discount rate is 4.5%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.4%, and the Fed's total assets are 6,708.939 billion US dollars [7] - **Inflation and Economic Growth**: The year - on - year CPI is 2.7%, the year - on - year GDP is 1.9%, and the unemployment rate is 4.1% [9] - **Interest Rate Spreads**: The spread between 3 - month and 10 - year US Treasury bonds is 0.47, and the spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds is 0.03 [7][9] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2,298.55 tons, the US's are 8,133.46 tons, and the world's are 36,250.15 tons [9][10] - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at various Fed meetings from 2025 to 2026 is presented in a table [11]

Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - For the steel sector, after the Politburo meeting, the relevant positive factors have been fully anticipated by the market, leading to a decline in futures prices. In the short - term, the steel market is in a consumption off - season, with demand expected to weaken further and inventory likely to rise. For the iron ore sector, the current high iron - water production has limited room for further increase, and the high supply and relatively high port trade - mine inventory create downward pressure on futures prices [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: After the Politburo meeting, the futures prices of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil rose and then fell. In terms of supply and demand, last week, the production and apparent demand of threaded steel increased, the factory inventory decreased for the second consecutive week, and the social inventory increased for the second consecutive week. The total inventory of the five major varieties increased, and the apparent demand declined. In the summer high - temperature season, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory is likely to rise. The market's focus will shift to the peak - season consumption from August to September [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures prices decreased with a reduction in positions, driven by the departure of long - position holders [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short selling can be considered during the rebound of futures prices, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss. Avoid chasing short positions rashly [2]. - **Data Highlights**: The closing price of the threaded - steel main contract was 3315 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous day; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3483 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. The 247 - steel - mill blast - furnace operating rate was 83.46%, and the average daily iron - water output was 242.23 million tons, down 0.09% from the previous week [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Currently, the profitability of steel mills is fair, but the iron - water production is under great pressure to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, and the future arrival volume is expected to remain high. Although the port inventory is slowly decreasing, the high port trade - mine inventory exists. After the conclusion of the Sino - US trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting, the positive factors have been released, and there is significant downward pressure on futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures prices have stabilized in the short - term, the oscillation range has narrowed, and the direction is to be determined, expected to follow the trend of threaded steel [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short selling can be considered during the rebound of futures prices, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss. Conservative investors can stay on the sidelines [4]. - **Data Highlights**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore main contract was 789 yuan/dry ton, down 1.13% from the previous day. The Australian iron - ore shipment was 1638.7 million tons, up 16.64% from the previous week, and the Brazilian iron - ore shipment was 731.6 million tons, down 12.19% from the previous week [4][5]. 3. Industry News - The China Coking Industry Association Market Committee decided to raise the coke price starting from July 31. The China Metal Materials Circulation Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style competition" in the steel circulation industry. The Xingtai market plans to raise the coke price. Gansu Energy Chemical's Wangjiashan Coal Mine No. 1 Well will resume production. The Ulanqab Industrial Alliance and the Ulanqab Ferroalloy Industry Association called on the industry to balance interests and resist involution. Affected by Typhoon "Zhujiecao", shipping and some wood processing in the Yangtze River's Jiangsu section have been suspended [7].

山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年07月30日16时30分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收涨0.42%，沪银主力收平。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，避险需求继续回落；美国经济 滞涨风险增加，就业通胀强劲压制降息预期。②避险属性方面，中美"建设性会谈"后暂时维持关税休战，未宣布重大突破。美国 与欧盟达成协议避免了贸易战，将征收15%关税。③货币属性方面，美联储本月决议预计将维持利率不变，因经济数据好坏参半。 美国6月商品贸易逆差降至近两年来最低，或助推第二季GDP大幅反弹。欧洲央行维持利率不变，乐观经济预测引发降息结束猜测 。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌回50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益震荡偏强；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏弱利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。⑥晚间有美国 ADP、GDP等重磅数据及凌晨美联储决议，数据超预期概率较大，建议提前做好风险管理。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, with high hopes for "anti - involution" and strengthened optimistic expectations for macro - policies. The iron ore market is under pressure due to potential iron - water production decline and high port trade - mine inventory, but the short - term price is supported by inventory decline [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market News**: The China Iron and Steel Association called on enterprises to control production and stabilize prices, and some Hebei steel mills are required to reduce production due to the parade. These news boosted the threaded steel price, which increased in volume and reached a new stage high [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of threaded steel increased, the factory inventory decreased for the second consecutive week, and the social inventory increased for the second consecutive week. The total inventory of the five major varieties increased, and the apparent demand declined. In the summer high - temperature season, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory is expected to rise [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a significant correction, the futures price increased in volume, indicating strong bullish power [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly. For empty - position investors, buy on dips, conduct short - term trading, and set stop - losses and take - profits in a timely manner [2]. - **Related Data**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, as well as their spot prices, all increased. The basis and spreads of various varieties showed different degrees of change. The production, inventory, and trading volume data of steel also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the iron - water production is expected to decline significantly in the short term. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, and the future arrival volume is expected to remain high. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the port trade - mine inventory is high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term adjustment, the futures price stabilized and rebounded [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try to go long on dips in the short term and set stop - losses and take - profits in a timely manner [5]. - **Related Data**: The prices of various iron ore varieties, basis, spreads, shipment volume, freight rates, exchange rates, inventory, and production data all showed different degrees of change [5]. 3. Industry News - The fourth round of coke price increase was fully implemented, with different price adjustments in Shandong and Hebei markets [8]. - From July 21st to 27th, 2024, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased compared with last Monday due to a decline in arrival volume [8]. - The China Iron and Steel Association called on enterprises to continue to adhere to the "Three - Fixed and Three - No" principle, control production, and stabilize prices, and promote self - discipline in key steel product markets [9]. - Hainan Development's subsidiary, Haikong Sanxin, recently reduced production by shutting down a 550 - ton kiln and five deep - processing production lines [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading agreements are reached in batches, the risk - aversion demand continues to decline, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases. Strong employment and inflation suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and slightly weaker. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.24%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.33% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements reduce risk - aversion demand, and the US economic stagflation risk and strong employment and inflation suppress interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Risk - aversion**: Sino - US trade talks and US - EU agreement reduce trade risks [1]. - **Monetary**: The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this month. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under upward pressure [1]. - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the weak RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - **Data**: Various gold - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex gold main contract closed at $3314.00 per ounce, down 0.73% from the previous day [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of Shanghai gold among futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [4]. - **Fund and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5]. - **Data**: Various silver - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex silver main contract closed at $38.33 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous day [5]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of Shanghai silver among futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **US Monetary Policy**: Federal fund target rate upper limit, discount rate, reserve balance interest rate, etc. have changed. The Fed's total assets are $67089.39 billion, down $16.72 billion from the previous period [7]. - **Inflation Data**: US inflation data such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, etc. show certain changes. For example, the year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, up 0.30 percentage points from the previous period [9]. - **Economic Growth**: US economic growth data such as GDP, unemployment rate, non - farm employment, etc. are presented. GDP's annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, down 1.00 percentage points from the previous period [9]. - **Other Data**: Data on various aspects such as international trade, central bank gold reserves, and risk - aversion and commodity - related indexes are provided [9][10]. - **Interest Rate Expectation**: The latest Fed interest rate expectations based on the CME FedWatch tool are given, showing the probability distribution of different interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing down 0.33% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing down 1.71%. The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, while the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still exist; the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectations of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be weak in gold and strong in silver in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. The CFTC net long position in silver and the iShare Silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3338.50 per ounce, down $32.80 (-0.97%); London gold was at $3343.50 per ounce, down $22.35 (-0.66%); Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 774.78 yuan per gram, down 2.54 yuan (-0.33%); Gold T + D closed at 771.58 yuan per gram, down 2.03 yuan (-0.26%) [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold's position was 489,423 lots (100 ounces per lot), an increase of 46,279 lots (10.44%); Shanghai Gold's main contract position was 209,675 lots (kilograms per lot), down 2,176 lots (-1.03%); Gold TD's position was 207,044 lots (kilograms per lot), down 2,086 lots (-1.00%). LBMA's gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 13 tons (-1.08%); Shanghai Gold's inventory was 18 tons, up 0.28 tons (1.57%) [2] - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhongcai Futures ranked first with 36,411 lots, an increase of 1,769 lots. Among the top 10 net short positions, Jinrui Futures ranked first with 3,733 lots, an increase of 225 lots [3] 3.2 Silver - **Price Performance**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $38.33 per ounce, down $0.96 (-2.44%); London silver was at $38.74 per ounce, down $0.29 (-0.74%); Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 9,212 yuan per kilogram, down 180 yuan (-1.92%); Silver T + D closed at 9,186 yuan per kilogram, down 186 yuan (-1.98%) [5] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver's position was 173,679 lots (5000 ounces per lot), an increase of 2,205 lots (1.29%); Shanghai Silver's main contract position was 5,976,315 lots (kilograms per lot), down 786,090 lots (-11.62%); Silver TD's position was 3,447,542 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 67,342 lots (1.99%). The total visible inventory was 41,850 tons, an increase of 54 tons (0.13%) [5] - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, CITIC Futures ranked first with 40,772 lots, an increase of 2,153 lots. Among the top 10 net short positions, Jinrui Futures ranked first with 10,982 lots, a decrease of 1,593 lots [6] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points; the discount rate was 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 4.40%, down 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets were $6,708.939 billion, down $0.1672 billion (-0.00%); M2's year - on - year growth rate was 4.54%, up 0.37 percentage points [7] - **Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, up 0.30 percentage points; the month - on - month CPI was 0.30%, unchanged; the year - on - year core CPI was 2.90%, up 0.10 percentage points; the month - on - month core CPI was 0.30%, up 0.10 percentage points; the year - on - year PCE price index was 2.34%, up 0.15 percentage points; the year - on - year core PCE price index was 2.68%, up 0.10 percentage points [8][9] - **Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 1.90%, down 1.00 percentage points; the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was - 0.50%, down 2.90 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.10%, down 0.10 percentage points; the monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 147,000, an increase of 3,000 [9] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index was 132.88, unchanged; the VIX index was 15.22, up 0.29 (1.94%); the CRB commodity index was 302.25, down 2.12 (-0.70%); the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1628, down 0.0184 (-0.26%) [10] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the federal funds rate will be in the range of 300 - 325 basis points in the meeting on July 30, 2025, is 3.1%, and the probability of 325 - 350 basis points is 96.9%. As time goes on, the probability distribution of the federal funds rate in different ranges shows certain changes [11]