1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a suppressive effect on raw materials and supports steel prices, but it is less than the previous "anti - involution" hype expectations. The overall apparent demand in the consumption season is lower than expected, and the total inventory is still increasing. However, the downstream restocking demand before the National Day holiday may support spot prices [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials. The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market News**: The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was jointly issued by relevant departments, which has different impacts on raw materials and steel prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the output of rebar decreased for four consecutive weeks, the apparent demand rebounded, and the total inventory decreased. The total output of the five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. The apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils rose and then fell, indicating obvious resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and go long after the futures stabilize [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week due to the sharp increase in coke spot prices and the decline in steel prices. The iron ore shipment is at a high level globally, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated and fell back. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for a full adjustment, and go long after other varieties stabilize. Be cautious about chasing up [4]. 3.3. Industry News - Indonesia has suspended 190 coal and mining licenses because they failed to fulfill the obligation to repair damaged mine land or comply with production quotas [6]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average daily customs clearance of the three major Mongolian coal ports has changed. The total average daily customs clearance in September is 2258 vehicles, equivalent to an import volume of about 31.26 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.90%. It is estimated that the 7 - day closure of the three major ports during the 2025 double - festival holiday will affect the Mongolian coal import volume by about 187.56 tons [6]. - On September 23, a large steel mill in Tangshan tendered for Mongolian 5 coking coal, with a winning bid price of 1400 yuan/ton to the factory, and all 7000 tons of the tender quantity were sold. The transaction price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous period on September 11 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has an overall suppressive effect on raw material varieties and supports steel prices, but it falls short of previous expectations [2]. - The anti - involution policy for iron ore has been implemented, which is also below expectations and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **News**: The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was jointly issued by relevant departments, affecting the market [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Threaded steel production has declined for four consecutive weeks, with a rebound in apparent demand and a decrease in total inventory. The total production of five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. Apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, but the overall apparent demand in the peak consumption season is lower than expected, and total inventory is still increasing [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils rose and then fell, indicating significant resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close long positions on rallies and then maintain a wait - and - see stance [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Policy Impact**: The anti - involution policy has been implemented, which is below expectations and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the profitability of sample steel mills declined due to the sharp increase in coke prices and the decrease in steel prices. The iron ore supply is at a high level globally, and port inventories have not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak consumption season. Before the holiday, the replenishment demand of steel mills supports iron ore demand [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated upwards but then fell after reaching a high. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [4]. - **Strategy and Operation Suggestions**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance, patiently wait for a pull - back to go long, and be cautious about chasing high prices [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry in the next two years, with measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, and promotion of the transformation of steel enterprises [6]. - From September 15th to 21st, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the iron ore arrival volume in Chinese ports increased [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for precious metals is oscillating with an upward bias, and the long - term trend is a step - by - step upward movement. This is due to short - term risk - aversion factors such as the phased achievement of trade agreements but renewed concerns about the Fed's independence, increased risk of stagflation in the US economy, and the start of the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East also support the safe - haven property of precious metals. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in October with a probability of around 90% and about 2 more cuts within the year. The CRB commodity index faces pressure in its rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated upward. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.99%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.78% [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: International prices of Comex gold and London gold, as well as domestic prices of Shanghai gold and gold T + D, all showed increases. For example, the Comex gold main - contract closing price was $3719.40 per ounce, up 1.12% from the previous day [3]. - **Basis, Spreads, and Ratios**: The basis and spreads of gold showed different changes. The gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.77% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Positions**: The positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold main contract, and gold TD all increased to varying degrees. For example, the position of the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 8.36% from the previous day [3]. - **Inventory**: The LBMA inventory remained unchanged, the Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and the Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1.57% [3]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The net long positions of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai gold market showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 31.89% compared to the previous day [4]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver, as well as domestic prices of Shanghai silver and silver T + D, showed increases. For example, the Comex silver main - contract closing price was $43.37 per ounce, up 3.00% from the previous day [7]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of silver showed different changes. The spread between the Shanghai silver main contract and London silver decreased by 7.40% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Positions**: The positions of Comex silver, Shanghai silver main contract, and silver TD all increased to varying degrees. For example, the position of the Shanghai silver main contract increased by 0.93% from the previous day [7]. - **Inventory**: The visible inventory of silver decreased by 0.20% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The net long positions of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai silver market decreased, and the net short positions also showed different changes [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets increased by 0.00% [9]. - **Inflation and Economic Growth Data**: The year - on - year CPI increased by 0.20 percentage points, and the GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points [11]. - **Interest Rate Spread and Yield Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 3.02%, and the US - Europe interest rate spread (10 - year bond yield) increased by 1.37% [9][11]. - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index increased by 4.21%, the CRB commodity index decreased by 0.41%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.02% [12]. - **Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations**: The probability of different interest - rate ranges at different Fed meetings is provided, showing a trend of possible interest - rate cuts in the future [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals rose significantly, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 2.01% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 3.81%. The report predicts that precious metals will fluctuate upward in the short - term and step - up in the long - term [2] - Gold price trend is the anchor for silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long and iShare silver ETF slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, although trade agreements are reached in batches, concerns about the Fed's independence have resurfaced. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are starting to materialize. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 interest - rate cuts are still expected within the year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure to rebound. The CRB commodity index is under pressure to rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3] - **Data Summary**: Various gold - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc. have shown different degrees of changes. For example, Comex gold主力合约收盘价 increased by 1.12% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main Shanghai gold contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 8.36% compared to the previous day [3] Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There was a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the recent visible inventory of silver [6] - **Data Summary**: Similar to gold, various silver - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc. have changed. For example, the main Comex silver contract increased by 3.00% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main Shanghai silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 16.15% compared to the previous day [7] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate both decreased by 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets increased by 0.00% compared to the previous week [9] - **Other Key Data**: Data on inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys in the US, as well as data on central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign - exchange reserve ratios, and various risk and commodity - related indices, are presented with their corresponding changes [10][11][12] - **Fed's Interest - Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate ranges at different future meeting dates is provided [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, the overall apparent demand in the consumption season is lower than expected, and the total inventory is still increasing. The expectation of the "anti - involution" policy is the current dominant factor. Before the National Day holiday, the downstream restocking demand supports the spot price [2]. - For iron ore, the "anti - involution" policy remains an important disturbing factor for the market. The supply is at a high level globally, and the port inventory has little change for now, but there is a possibility of inventory increase in the consumption season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the iron ore demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: The output of rebar has decreased for four consecutive weeks, the apparent demand has rebounded, and the total inventory has turned to decline. The total output of the five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. The apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions can be held with a light position, and investors should leave the market in time when the price rises. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see [2]. - **Data**: Various price data such as futures and spot prices, basis and spreads, and production, inventory, and demand data are provided, including the fact that the 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 83.83%, the average daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, etc. [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of sample steel mills decreased last week due to the sharp increase in coke prices and the decline in steel prices. The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 tons week - on - week. The global shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has little change, but there may be an inventory increase in the consumption season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the iron ore demand [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, wait patiently for a pull - back to go long, and be cautious about chasing the rise [4]. - **Data**: It includes various price data such as spot and futures prices, basis, and spreads, as well as shipment, inventory, and production data. For example, the Australian iron ore shipment is 1836.9 tons, and the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 790.6 tons [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Independent electric - arc - furnace construction steel mills are in a serious loss state, with an average profit of - 132 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit of - 35 yuan/ton, and there are still actions to reduce production [7]. - Last week, the scale of maintenance of construction steel mills increased, with 15 maintenance production lines and 10 restarted production lines [7]. - The total urban inventory this week is 933.75 tons, a decrease of 5.43 tons (- 0.58%) from last week [8]. - The Simandou iron ore project has entered a decisive stage, and the first - batch mining operations of Blocks 1 and 2 have officially started, with a current production capacity of 4000 tons per hour [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing down 0.41% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing up 0.64%. The short - term core logic includes: in terms of short - term hedging, trade agreements are being reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence have resurfaced; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are starting to materialize. Geopolitical uncertainties still exist in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. The market expects a 90%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate at high levels in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver decreased slightly, and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver increased slightly [6]. Summary by Section Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex gold and London gold) increased, and domestic gold prices (Shanghai gold and gold T + D) also rose. The basis and spreads, and various ratios showed different changes. The positions of Comex gold increased, while the positions of Shanghai gold main contract decreased. The inventories of LBMA and Shanghai gold remained stable, while the Comex gold inventory decreased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased slightly [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai gold futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [4]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [7]. - **Data Summary**: International silver prices (Comex silver and London silver) showed mixed trends, and domestic silver prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) increased. The basis and spreads changed. The positions of Comex silver decreased, while the positions of Shanghai silver main contract increased. The visible inventory of silver increased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the iShare silver ETF inventory increased [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai silver futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased year - on - year. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and the VIX index increased, while the geopolitical risk index decreased significantly [9][12]. - **Interest Rate Spreads and Inflation**: The US - EU and US - China interest rate spreads (10 - year bond yields) increased. The CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index all showed different degrees of change. The inflation expectations of the University of Michigan also changed [11]. - **Economic Indicators**: GDP growth showed different trends in annualized year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter terms. The unemployment rate increased, and non - farm payrolls decreased. The labor participation rate decreased, and average hourly wage growth slowed down. Other economic indicators in the labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys also showed various changes [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The central bank gold reserves of China increased slightly, while those of the US remained stable. The proportion of the US dollar in IMF foreign exchange reserves increased, while the proportion of the euro decreased. The ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves increased globally and in China and the US [12]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market has different expectations for the Fed's interest rate range in different periods from October 2025 to October 2027 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" policy hype in the black sector has led to general price increases. For the steel market, there are differences in the demand recovery between rebar and hot - rolled coils, with the former being slower and the latter faster. For the iron ore market, the supply is at a high level, and the port inventory shows signs of stabilization. Technical breakthroughs need further observation [2][5]. - In the steel market, the policy aims to rectify low - price and disorderly competition, promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity, and guide enterprises to improve product quality [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Policy Impact**: The publication of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important article in Qiushi magazine triggers market speculation about the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, with a consistent policy tone compared to the article on July 1 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar production has decreased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease, apparent demand has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and social inventory has increased for nine consecutive weeks. The total production of five major steel products has decreased by 3.4 million tons week - on - week, factory inventory has decreased by 3.5 million tons, social inventory has increased by 17.4 million tons, and total inventory has increased by 13.9 million tons. Apparent demand has increased by 15.5 million tons week - on - week, with the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increasing by 20.8 million tons. Currently, the demand for rebar recovers slowly, while that for hot - rolled coils recovers quickly [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Rebar has broken through the pressure of the upper 10 - day moving average on the daily K - line chart, and hot - rolled coils have broken through the pressure of the middle Bollinger Band, showing a short - term strong rebound [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing up, and treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: The resurgence of "anti - involution" speculation has led to a general rise in the black sector, and iron ore has followed suit. The profitability of sample steel mills has recently declined, mainly due to the sharp increase in coke spot prices and the decline in steel prices. The iron ore supply is at a high level globally, and port inventory shows signs of stabilization, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract forms an upward breakthrough, it enters an oscillation state. Whether it is a real breakthrough remains to be seen [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. If the upward breakthrough is proven to be a false one, try to enter the market to short. If an upward effective breakthrough is formed, consider short - term and light - position long - buying on dips [5]. 3.3 Industry News - **Production Data**: In August, China's crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron production was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; and steel production was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [7]. - **Tariff Policy**: The United States has opened a "tariff inclusion window" for steel and aluminum under Section 232, planning to impose tariffs on more steel and aluminum derivatives [8]. - **Coal Mine Shutdown**: Two coal mines in Shanxi have shut down, with uncertain复产 times. One in Lvliang Zhongyang has a production capacity of 1.2 million tons, and the other in Linfen Guxian has a production capacity of 0.9 million tons [8]. - **Iron Ore Shipment**: From September 8th to September 14th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.731 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.169 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 29.778 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.482 million tons [8]. - **Coke Price Adjustment**: On September 15th, steel mills in the Hebei market lowered the coke purchase price by 50/55 yuan per ton [9]. - **Steel Inventory**: In early September 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.82 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84 million tons, or 5.6% [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market focus has shifted to verifying the actual downstream demand. The implementation of the "anti - involution" policy may cause certain disturbances to the market. There are concerns that the future demand recovery may fall short of expectations due to the ongoing bottom - building process in the real estate sector [3]. - For steel products, the demand for rebar recovers slowly while that for hot - rolled coils recovers quickly. For iron ore, the supply is abundant with high global shipments, and the port inventory shows signs of stabilizing [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar production has decreased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing, apparent demand has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and social inventory has increased for nine consecutive weeks. The total output of the five major steel products decreased by 3.4 tons week - on - week, factory inventory decreased by 3.5 tons, social inventory increased by 17.4 tons, and the total inventory increased by 13.9 tons. The apparent demand increased by 15.5 tons week - on - week, with the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increasing by 20.8 tons [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the upper 10 - day moving average of rebar exerts significant pressure. Hot - rolled coils are relatively stronger than rebar, supported by the 60 - day moving average but facing some pressure from the middle track of the Bollinger Bands [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions and take profits at low prices. Adopt a low - level oscillation strategy [3]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Recently, the profitability of sample steel mills has declined due to the sharp increase in coke prices. After the military parade, the molten iron output of steel mills has returned to the pre - parade level. The global iron ore shipments are at a high level, and the future arrival volume is expected to rise. The port inventory shows signs of stabilizing [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it pulled back. Whether it is a real breakthrough remains to be seen [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. If the upward breakthrough is proven to be false, consider short - selling [5]. 3.3. Industry News - Shanxi Coking Coal announced that Shuiyu Coal Mine resumed production on September 12, with an expected impact on raw coal output of about 180,000 tons due to a 15 - day shutdown [8]. - The inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China increased by 5.08% week - on - week to 69,940 tons, reaching the highest level in the past five weeks. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese enterprises reached a seven - week high, increasing by 6,300 tons to 166,800 tons [8]. - The second round of coke price cuts has started. Tangshan and Xingtai steel mills plan to cut the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on September 15, 2025 [8]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 3.43 percentage points week - on - week to 83.83%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 4.39 percentage points to 90.18%, the steel mill profitability rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points to 60.17%, and the daily average molten iron output increased by 11.71 tons to 240.55 tons [8]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports increased by 24.15 tons to 13,849.47 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 13.50 tons to 331.28 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 30.40 tons to 14,456.12 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 14.06 tons to 344.39 tons [9]. - In early September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities increased by 320,000 tons to 9.2 million tons, a 4.2% increase. Compared with the beginning of the year, it increased by 2.61 million tons (39.6%), and compared with the same period last year, it increased by 360,000 tons (4.1%) [9]. - The total inventory in cities this week was 9.3918 million tons, a 2.25% increase from last week [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the current situation of the crude oil market, including price changes, spreads, and various influencing factors. It points out that the Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and may cut rates 2 - 3 times this year. The Sino - US tariff is extended to November, and the benchmark scenario is expected to maintain a state of "fighting without breaking". OPEC+ plans to complete the second - stage production increase (1.65 million barrels per day) by August 2026, and the oil price is gradually entering a pressured stage. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the US - Venezuela incident, and the Middle - East situation may have potential impacts on the oil market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Price and Spread Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On September 12, Sc was at 476.70 yuan/barrel, down 14.10 yuan (-2.87%) from the previous day and 5.30 yuan (-1.10%) from the previous week; WTI was at 62.60 dollars/barrel, up 0.36 dollars (0.58%) from the previous day and 0.63 dollars (1.02%) from the previous week; Brent was at 66.88 dollars/barrel, up 0.57 dollars (0.86%) from the previous day and 1.21 dollars (1.84%) from the previous week [2]. - **Internal and External Spreads**: Sc - WTI was at 4.52 dollars/barrel, down 2.33 dollars (-34.01%) from the previous day and 1.33 dollars (-22.77%) from the previous week; Sc - Brent was at 0.24 dollars/barrel, down 2.54 dollars (-91.27%) from the previous day and 1.91 dollars (-88.74%) from the previous week [2]. - **Sc Month - spreads**: Sc_C1 - C2 was at -1.40 yuan/barrel, up 0.20 yuan (12.50%) from the previous day and down 1.50 yuan (-1500.00%) from the previous week; Sc_C1 - C6 was at -1.20 yuan/barrel, down 4.50 yuan (-136.36%) from the previous day and 8.90 yuan (-115.58%) from the previous week; Sc_C1 - C13 was at 1.80 yuan/barrel, down 8.40 yuan (-82.35%) from the previous day and 14.50 yuan (-88.96%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 69.68 dollars/barrel, down 1.15 dollars (-1.62%) from the previous day and up 0.32 dollars (0.46%) from the previous week; Brent DTD was at 71.18 dollars/barrel, up 1.66 dollars (2.39%) from the previous day and down 0.10 dollars (-0.14%) from the previous week; Oman was at 71.22 dollars/barrel, up 0.71 dollars (1.01%) from the previous day and 0.47 dollars (0.66%) from the previous week; Dubai was at 71.15 dollars/barrel, up 0.74 dollars (1.05%) from the previous day and 0.40 dollars (0.57%) from the previous week; ESPO was at 65.06 dollars/barrel, up 0.92 dollars (1.43%) from the previous day and 0.18 dollars (0.28%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel (East China) was at 6662.82 yuan/ton, down 12.55 yuan (-0.19%) from the previous day and 27.36 yuan (-0.41%) from the previous week; Gasoline (East China) was at 7706.91 yuan/ton, down 21.00 yuan (-0.27%) from the previous day and 43.09 yuan (-0.56%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic and Geopolitical Factors - **Macro - economic**: The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and may cut rates 2 - 3 times this year. The Sino - US tariff is extended to November, and the benchmark scenario is expected to maintain a state of "fighting without breaking". Trump signed the "Great and Beautiful Act" into law, and its implementation may have a gradual and spill - over impact on the market [2]. - **Geopolitical**: The Russia - Ukraine cease - fire progress is slow, and new sanctions from the US and Europe against Russia may be launched. The Iran nuclear issue and the Houthi situation currently have limited impact. The Venezuela - related risks, if escalated, will affect the oil market. The Israeli attack on Qatar may cause concerns among Middle - East sovereign countries. Trump said his patience with Putin is running out and may take actions to restrict Russia's oil exports [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - OPEC+ plans to complete the second - stage production increase (1.65 million barrels per day) by August 2026. There is no specific plan yet (137,000 barrels per day in October currently), and the plan may be adjusted or withdrawn. The oil price is gradually entering a pressured stage, but OPEC+ may try to maintain the Back structure of the oil market [2]. 3.4 Industry News - On September 14, the Ukrainian drone and special forces attacked the Kirishi refinery in Russia's Leningrad Oblast, causing a fire. Trump threatened to impose major sanctions on Russia if NATO countries stop buying Russian oil. The US to September 12 weekly oil drilling totaled 416 wells, up from 414 wells in the previous period [3]. - The Venezuelan government reported that a US destroyer illegally intercepted and detained a Venezuelan fishing boat for 8 hours. China and the US held talks in Madrid starting on September 14 to discuss trade issues such as tariffs and export controls [8].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年09月12日08时15分 | 投资咨询系列报告 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山金期货原油日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 更新时间：2025年09月12日08时15分 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 原油 | | 数据类别 | | 指标 | 单位 | 9月11日 | | 较上日 | | | 较上周 | | | | | | | 绝对值 | | | | | | 百分比 | | 绝对值 | | | | 百分比 | | | | Sc | | | 元/桶 | 490.80 | | 4.60 | 0.95% | | 9.80 | 2.04% | | | | | | 原油期货 | WTI | | 美元/桶 | 62.24 | | -1.51 | -2.37% | | -1.10 | -1.74 ...