投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月01日08时19分 报告导读： 美国即将公布对等关税政策，亚洲股市、工业品等遭抛售，贵金属强势突破，黑色商品走势偏弱。近期新疆有多家钢企压减粗钢产量 ，提振多头信 心，但新疆整体产量规模小，后续内次钢厂是否跟进有待观望。我的钢铁最新的数据显示，本周螺纹钢产量有所增加，厂库继续下降，社库回落， 总库存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但全国范围来看， 低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 ，未来钢材的下游需求主要看热卷等其他品种 。从技术上看，目前期价围绕 10 日均线进行震荡，整体处于震荡 偏弱的状态，有可能处于震荡筑底的过程中。 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3159 | -38 | -1.19% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products**: Recent production cuts by steel enterprises in Xinjiang have boosted bullish sentiment, but the overall production scale in Xinjiang is small, and it remains to be seen whether other steel mills will follow. The real - estate market in core cities is showing signs of recovery, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. Steel futures prices are oscillating around the 10 - day moving average, with an overall weak - oscillating trend [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The news of steel production restrictions in Xinjiang has boosted bullish sentiment and stabilized iron ore prices. The supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level, and port inventories are expected to rise in the future. Terminal demand is warming up, and steel mill profitability is acceptable, but the room for further increase in iron - water production is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Section **I. Steel Products (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)** - **Market Situation**: Xinjiang steel mills' production cuts have boosted confidence, but follow - up actions are uncertain. Real - estate in core cities is recovering, while lower - tier cities are still bottoming out. Futures prices are oscillating weakly [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Prices**: Thread steel futures closed at 3197 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day; hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3374 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [2]. - **Production**: National thread steel production was 227.43 million tons, up 0.54% week - on - week; hot - rolled coil production was 324.75 million tons, up 0.13% [2]. - **Inventory**: Total inventory of five major steel products decreased, with thread social inventory down 1.36% and hot - rolled coil social inventory down 4.08% [2]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Market Situation**: News of steel production restrictions in Xinjiang has stabilized iron ore prices. Supply is high, and port inventories may rise. Terminal demand is warming up, but the increase in iron - water production is limited [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, avoid chasing up or selling down, and consider going long lightly on dips [3]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Prices**: DCE iron ore futures settled at 785.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3.70% week - on - week; McFadden powder in Qingdao Port was 765 yuan/wet ton, down 0.13% from the previous day [4]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 16.828 billion tons, down 0.86%; Brazilian shipments were 5.823 billion tons, up 56.24% [4]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories totaled 144.6249 billion tons, up 0.29% [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing Trump trade war, concerns about a US recession, and risk aversion have jointly pushed up the prices of precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will continue to be volatile and bullish in the short term, experience high-level fluctuations in the medium term, and rise in a stepwise manner in the long term [7]. - The short - term strategy is to be volatile and bullish, the medium - term strategy is to be weakly volatile, and the long - term strategy is to rise in a stepwise manner. The support and resistance levels for Shanghai Gold futures are 690 - 695 and 725 - 730 respectively, and for Shanghai Silver futures are 8000 - 8030 and 8500 - 8530 respectively [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Safe - Haven Attribute - Recent trade wars and geopolitical events have reignited, increasing risk - aversion demand. Trump's 25% tariff on imported cars and the expansion of the trade war, along with geopolitical risks such as the tense Middle - East situation and the recurring Russia - Ukraine conflict, have contributed to this [2]. - The US debt has exceeded $36 trillion, and the deteriorating fiscal situation has intensified market doubts about the US dollar's credit system [2]. 2. Monetary Attribute - The US economy has shown more signs of weakness, with significant declines in retail sales and consumer confidence, a loosening employment market, and persistent overall inflation data, increasing the risk of recession [3]. - The Fed's March interest - rate decision indicates that the pace of balance - sheet reduction will slow down, increasing the risk of stagflation in the US. This has strengthened the market's bet on a decline in real interest rates and reduced the cost of holding gold. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged until June 2025, with the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 rising to 75 basis points, one more rate cut than the Fed's dot - plot suggests [3]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Although gold jewelry consumption is constrained by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars has offset some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets, including the People's Bank of China, are implementing a "de - dollarization" strategy, keeping central - bank gold - buying demand at a high level [4]. - The CRB commodity index is under pressure and declining, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices [4]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of gold and silver in the CFTC have increased at high levels, and the net long positions of Shanghai gold and silver futures in China have continued to increase. The world's largest gold and silver ETFs have ended their long - term downward trends and have rapidly increased their positions [5]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution - In the short term, the inflation - upward risk brought by the trade war remains to be released, and the Fed may maintain a cautious attitude or even postpone rate cuts. The realization of the trade - war phase, the resumption of Russia - Ukraine negotiations, or a cease - fire in the Middle East may weaken short - term risk - aversion demand, increasing the short - term correction pressure on gold prices after a sharp rise. In the long term, the reconstruction of the global economic and political system will drive the reconstruction of the monetary system, and geopolitical risks and the expectation of the Fed's policy shift to easing will still provide support [7]. 6. 2024 - 2025 Fed Monetary Policy Path Review - In March 2024, the Fed raised economic and inflation expectations, maintained the guidance of rate cuts within the year, and hinted at a slowdown in balance - sheet reduction [9]. - In May 2024, the Fed maintained interest rates, announced a slowdown in balance - sheet reduction from June 1, and hinted that the next rate action was unlikely to be a rate hike [9]. - In June 2024, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the updated dot - plot significantly reduced the expected number of rate cuts for the year [9]. - In July 2024, the Fed continued to keep interest rates unchanged, confirmed progress in inflation reduction, and suggested that a rate cut might be an option in September [10]. - In September 2024, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, with a larger - than - usual initial rate - cut amplitude, and announced further rate - cut plans [10]. - In November 2024, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, expressed concerns about inflation pressure, and indicated that future rate cuts might slow down [10]. - In December 2024, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the dot - plot showed that the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 had decreased [10]. - In January 2025, the Fed paused rate cuts, stating that inflation was still somewhat high and the labor market had cooled but remained robust [10]. - In March 2025, the Fed maintained interest rates, announced a slowdown in balance - sheet reduction from April 1, and expected two rate cuts in 2025, but the number of those expecting no rate cuts in the dot - plot increased [10].

山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年03月28日08时17分 一、螺纹、热卷 投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 消息面上，新疆有更多钢企压减粗钢产量 ，提振多头信心。我的钢铁最新的数据显示，本周螺纹钢产量有所增加，厂库继续下降，社库回落，总库 存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，数据利多螺纹热卷的价格。核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但全国范 围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 ，钢材的下游需求主要看热卷。从技术上看，目前期价围绕 10 日均线进行震荡，整体处于震荡偏弱的 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3208 | -1 | -0.03% | 32 | 1.01% | | | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3381 | | -5 -0.15% | 24 | 0.71% | | 期现货价格 | ...

一、螺纹、热卷 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年03月27日08时17分 报告导读： 消息面上，新疆有更多钢企压减粗钢产量 ，提振多头信心。我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所回落，厂库继续下降，社库回落，总库 存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，数据利多螺纹热卷的价格。目前房地产仍处于筑底的过程中 ，下游需求主要看热卷。从技术上看，目前期价围绕 10 日均线进行震荡，整体处于震荡偏弱的状态。 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 3209 3386 | -11 0 | -0.34% 0 | 47 38 | 1.49% 1.14% | | | 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） | 元/吨 元/吨 | 3260 3380 | -20 -1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market anticipates 2 Fed rate cuts this year, with a low probability of a May cut and uncertainty about a June cut. There are ongoing concerns about US inflation, and the US counter - tariff policy takes effect on April 2nd [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts in the Gaza Strip have reignited, and US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela provide a bullish basis. US - Russia negotiations have both differences and progress, and the overall trend seems to be a cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but there is still some game space among the US, Russia, and Europe [2]. - OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts, with production set to increase in May. The oil price has factored in some of this, but it's unclear if it has fully priced in a smooth OPEC+ production increase. Attention should be paid to US drilling numbers and the probability of Trump's oil and gas production increase policy implementation [2]. - On the demand side, it's difficult to see a definite increase. There are reports of the US replenishing its SPR, but it's unlikely to happen quickly. Future inventory data will be a key factor, and currently, the total inventory is low, but the low - inventory support for prices may be weaker due to poor demand expectations [2]. - In the long - term, there is no clear global demand growth logic, and with OPEC+ gradually increasing production, potential supply losses should be monitored, especially from Russia, Iran, and other countries affected by US sanctions [2]. - Overnight, crude oil continued to rebound but faced resistance at the previous oscillation lower boundary, showing short - term pressure on the market. The overall market sentiment may turn bearish, but the final situation depends on Russian crude oil supply data [2]. - Technically, the oil price is still in a bearish mid - term state. After a continuous low - level rebound, short - term indicators are showing divergence. Traders should prepare to exit short - term long positions and consider a mid - term strategy of selling at high prices by setting up out - of - the - money put options with an execution price of around $67 per barrel for US crude oil [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - On March 26th, Sc was at 541.80 yuan/barrel, up 3.50 yuan (0.65%) from the previous day and up 25.60 yuan (4.96%) from the previous week. WTI was at $69.94/barrel, up $0.74 (1.07%) from the previous day and up $2.75 (4.09%) from the previous week. Brent was at $74.00/barrel, up $0.83 (1.13%) from the previous day and up $3.14 (4.43%) from the previous week [2]. - The Sc - WTI spread was $5.57/barrel, down $0.22 (-3.75%) from the previous day but up $0.76 (15.82%) from the previous week. The Sc - Brent spread was $1.51/barrel, down $0.31 (-16.90%) from the previous day and up $0.37 (32.58%) from the previous week [2]. - The Brent - WTI spread was $4.06/barrel, up $2.25 (123.73%) from the previous day and up $2.92 (256.94%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Data - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $75.74/barrel, up $1.49 (2.01%) from the previous week; Brent DTD was at $74.67/barrel, up $2.17 (2.99%) from the previous week. Oman and Dubai were both at $73.63/barrel, up $0.71 (0.97%) from the previous week [2]. - ESPO was at $67.82/barrel, with an OPEC - basket premium of $1.74/barrel, up $0.24 (16.00%) from the previous day and up $2.17 (3.31%) from the previous week. The Brent DTD premium was $0.67/barrel, up $0.21 (45.65%) from the previous day but down $4.36 (-118.16%) from the previous week [2]. - The Oman premium was -$0.37/barrel, up $3.31 (89.95%) from the previous day but down $2.37 (-86.50%) from the previous week. The Dubai premium was -$0.37/barrel, up $1.96 (84.12%) from the previous day and down $0.02 (-5.13%) from the previous week [2]. 3.3 Product Spot Data - Diesel in East China was at 6905.27 yuan/ton, up 45.18 yuan (0.66%) from the previous day and up 102.91 yuan (1.51%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was at 8109.36 yuan/ton, up 36.55 yuan (0.45%) from the previous day and up 93.36 yuan (1.16%) from the previous week [2]. - The ratio of diesel in East China to Sc was 12.745059, up 0.00 (0.01%) from the previous day but down 0.43 (-3.28%) from the previous week. The ratio of gasoline in East China to Sc was 14.967449, down 0.03 (-0.20%) from the previous day and down 0.56 (-3.62%) from the previous week [2]. 3.4 Inventory and Position Data - The total Sc warehouse receipts were 648.50 million barrels, down 50.00 million barrels (-7.16%) from the previous week. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 396.15 million barrels, up 0.29 million barrels (0.07%) from the previous week [2]. - US commercial crude oil was 433.63 million barrels, down 3.34 million barrels (-0.76%) from the previous week. Cushing crude oil was 22.71 million barrels, down 0.76 million barrels (-3.22%) from the previous week [2]. - US gasoline was 239.13 million barrels, down 1.45 million barrels (-0.60%) from the previous week. Distillates were 114.36 million barrels, down 0.42 million barrels (-0.37%) from the previous week [2]. - The non - commercial net position in CFTC was 16.68 million contracts, up 0.27 million contracts (1.64%) from the previous week. The commercial net position was - 18.22 million contracts, down 0.35 million contracts (1.95%) from the previous week [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US Congressional Budget Office warns that if the debt ceiling is not raised, the government may face a default risk as early as August. If borrowing demand exceeds forecasts, the Treasury's borrowing capacity may be exhausted in late May or June [3]. - The EIA reports that for the week ending March 21st, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.341 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.446 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 0.421 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 0.755 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased by 0.286 million barrels [4]. - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak says the Kropotkin oil station is under restoration, and it's too early to say when the work will be completed. The MOL Group is interested in Russian oil and gas projects. The global oil market is stable, and demand is gradually recovering. OPEC+ will monitor the market to maintain supply - demand balance. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is in normal operation, and global oil demand is expected to increase by 1 - 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025 [4]. - India's Reliance Industries will stop importing Venezuelan oil due to tariff threats. Last year, it imported an average of 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil per month, and it's unclear if it will receive the April shipment [4]. - Total Energies' CEO Patrick Pouyanne says Europe will still need a certain level of Russian natural gas for its industries to remain competitive. He wouldn't be surprised if one or two Nord Stream pipelines resume half of their capacity [5]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 86.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 13.6%. By June, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 33.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 58.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 8.3% [5]. - S&P warns that US policy uncertainty poses risks to the North American credit environment, and the probability of a US economic recession in the next 12 months is 25% [6]. - Fed's Musalem says the risk of recent inflation stagnating above 2% or rising further has increased. It's appropriate to be patient with the current policy. If the labor market remains strong and the second - round tariff effects appear, the Fed may need to keep rates high for longer or adopt stricter policies [6]. - Bridgewater's Ray Dalio warns US House Republicans about the danger of rising deficits and urges them to cut the budget deficit to 3% of GDP to avoid the risk of debt - servicing costs squeezing government spending [7]. - The winning bid rate for the 5 - year US Treasury bond auction on March 26th was 4.1%, down from the previous 4.12%. The winning bid rate for the 4 - month Treasury bond auction was 4.2%, the same as the previous rate [7].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年03月26日16时37分 二、白银 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.47%，沪银主力收涨1.70%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易战、地缘异动等避险阶段缓和；美国经 济出现更多转弱信号，联储官员继续谨慎。②避险属性方面，特朗普对贸易战态度趋于谨慎。VIX高位回落，贸易战、地缘异动等 避险阶段兑现；③货币属性方面，面对经济不确定性，美国3月世界大型企业联合会消费者信心指数录得92.9，为2021年1月以来 新低，预期94，前值98.3。预期指数大幅下滑至65.2，创最近十二年新低。美国费城联储服务业部门当前活动指数从-13.1急剧下 跌至-32.5，跌至2020年5月以来的最低水平。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至6月，预期25年总降息空间重回75基点左右。美元 指数和美债收益率下行遇阻；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数高位承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏多， 中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long term, it's difficult to see a definite demand growth logic globally, and OPEC+ is gradually increasing production. Potential supply losses may come from Russia, Iran, and other countries affected by US sanctions. The support from the production cut floor in the past two years is still effective, but it may involve certain geopolitical factors. The market should pay attention to the US's counter - tariff policy expectations this week [2]. - The overnight crude oil fluctuated within a range and is currently in a rebound process. There are several factors affecting the oil price: difficult to find demand increments, OPEC+ gradually increasing production, Trump's push for US oil and gas production as a potential negative factor, the oil price getting support near the previous production cut floor but possibly involving OPEC+ geopolitical conflicts, and the market's changing expectations for US - Russia negotiations. The overall atmosphere may turn bearish, but the final situation depends on Russian crude oil supply data. Also, the previous decline in oil price may imply expectations of a US economic recession, which may fluctuate. Additionally, it's necessary to focus on whether the US implements a strong counter - tariff policy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Data - **Futures Prices**: On March 25, the SC crude oil futures price was 538.30 yuan/barrel, up 3.90 yuan (0.73%) from the previous day and 12.10 yuan (2.30%) from the previous week. WTI was 69.20 dollars/barrel, up 0.04 dollars (0.06%) from the previous day and 2.50 dollars (3.75%) from the previous week. Brent was 73.17 dollars/barrel, up 0.14 dollars (0.19%) from the previous day and 2.75 dollars (3.91%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spreads**: The SC - WTI spread was 5.78 dollars/barrel, up 0.49 dollars (9.36%) from the previous day and down 0.87 dollars (-13.08%) from the previous week. The SC - Brent spread was 1.81 dollars/barrel, up 0.39 dollars (27.82%) from the previous day and down 1.12 dollars (-38.18%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was 75.11 dollars/barrel, up 1.98 dollars (2.71%) from the previous week; Brent DTD was 73.92 dollars/barrel, up 2.41 dollars (3.37%) from the previous week; Oman was 73.44 dollars/barrel, up 1.53 dollars (2.13%) from the previous week; Dubai was 73.44 dollars/barrel, up 1.53 dollars (2.13%) from the previous week; ESPO was 66.64 dollars/barrel, up 2.09 dollars (3.24%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was 6860.09 yuan/ton, up 23.64 yuan (0.35%) from the previous day and 27.55 yuan (0.40%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was 8072.82 yuan/ton, up 27.73 yuan (0.34%) from the previous day and 9.45 yuan (0.12%) from the previous week [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Reserves**: SC warehouse receipt total was 648.50 million barrels, down 50.00 million barrels (-7.16%) from the previous week. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 395.86 million barrels, up 0.27 million barrels (0.07%) from the previous week [2]. - **EIA US Data (Weekly)**: Commercial crude oil was 436.97 million barrels, up 1.75 million barrels (0.40%) from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 23.46 million barrels, down 1.01 million barrels (-4.12%) from the previous week; gasoline was 240.57 million barrels, down 0.53 million barrels (-0.22%) from the previous week; distillates were 114.78 million barrels, down 2.81 million barrels (-2.39%) from the previous week [2]. - **CFTC Positions (Weekly)**: Non - commercial net positions were 16.68 million contracts, up 0.27 million contracts (1.64%) from the previous week; commercial net positions were - 18.22 million contracts, down 0.35 million contracts (-1.95%) from the previous week; non - report net positions were 1.54 million contracts, up 0.08 million contracts (5.38%) from the previous week [2]. 2. Fundamental Overview - **Macro Aspect**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and there are continuous concerns about US inflation. The US counter - tariff policy will take effect on April 2nd, which needs attention [2]. - **Geopolitical Aspect**: There are bullish factors in the Gaza Strip, US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. US - Russia negotiations have both differences and progress, and currently, the overall situation is moving towards a cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Attention should also be paid to incremental information from Turkey [2]. - **Supply Aspect**: OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts, which is mainly bearish. The oil price has partially priced in this factor, but it may not fully reflect the smooth increase in OPEC+ production. Attention should be paid to the number of US drilling rigs and the probability of Trump's oil and gas production increase policy implementation [2]. - **Demand Aspect**: It's still difficult to see a definite demand increment. There are reports that the US will replenish its SPR, but it may not be implemented quickly. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of inventory data [2]. 3. Operation Suggestions - The short - term oil price has deviated from the previous narrow - range bottom oscillation range and is approaching the previous oscillation lower limit (referring to US oil at 69.6 dollars/barrel). Traders should be cautious in holding long positions in the short - term, raise the stop - loss level to around 68.6 dollars/barrel for US oil, and be prepared to exit short - term long positions or convert floating profits into out - of - the - money call options. Those with a medium - term short - selling strategy can prepare to ambush out - of - the - money put positions during the rebound stage, with the execution price referring to 67 dollars/barrel for US oil [2]. 4. Other News - From March 15th to 21st in the US, API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.599 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 0.61 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.277 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.349 million barrels [3]. - On March 25th, Russia and the US agreed on a list of energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine that are prohibited from being attacked, and the agreement can be extended [3]. - The US Latin American envoy said that the Caribbean region is at a historical moment of energy security, and the oil development in Guyana will be an important topic [3]. - Iran's foreign minister reiterated that the indirect negotiation channel with the US is open, but Iran will not conduct direct negotiations with the US unless the US adjusts its policy towards Iran [4]. - Iran's foreign minister accused the US of trying to create division among Middle Eastern countries and urged Middle Eastern countries to defend their sovereignty [4]. - The Dutch bank ING said that Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on Venezuelan oil buyers may significantly tighten the global oil supply - demand balance. Chevron's sanctions exemption will expire on May 27th, and the 25% tariff will take effect on April 2nd [5]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 87.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 12.9%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 32.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 59.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8.1% [5]. - On March 25th, Trump said that significant progress has been made in the Ukraine issue, and the US is in in - depth discussions with Russia and Ukraine. He also said that Russia and Ukraine will reach an agreement on a maritime cease - fire, and other countries will participate in monitoring the cease - fire process. Trump will consider Russia's request for sanctions relief [5]. - Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio warned US House Republicans about the danger of rising deficits and urged them to cut the budget deficit to 3% of GDP [6]. - The winning bid rate for the 2 - year US Treasury auction on March 25th was 3.984%, down from the previous 4.17%. The winning bid rate for the 6 - week Treasury auction was 4.23%, down from the previous 4.24% [6].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年03月26日08时21分 报告导读： 消息面上，新疆有更多钢企压减粗钢产量 ，提振多头信心。我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所回落，厂库继续下降，社库回落，总库 存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，数据利多螺纹热卷的价格。目前房地产仍处于筑底的过程中 ，下游需求主要看热卷。从技术上看，目前期价围绕 10 日均线进行震荡，整体处于震荡偏弱的状态。 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 3220 3386 | 16 -10 | 0.50% -0.29% | 29 16 | 0.91% 0.47% | | | 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3280 | 20 | 0.61% | 30 | 0.92% | | | 热轧板卷现 ...

Group 1: Trade and Economic Challenges - The US has imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, raising the cumulative tariff to 20%, with the overall tariff rate on Chinese exports potentially reaching 45%[7] - The trade war has led to a significant decline in bilateral trade, with the proportion of US imports from China dropping from 18% in 2018 to 11% in 2023[9] - China's export growth is expected to face further pressure, with a forecasted decline in export growth for 2025 due to rising tariffs and stricter "origin" requirements[9] Group 2: Real Estate Market Dynamics - In the first two months of the year, national real estate development investment was 1,072 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.8%[13] - New housing sales area decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[13] - The pressure on real estate companies to deliver projects is increasing, with a significant rise in unsold residential properties, which grew by 6.6% year-on-year[13] Group 3: Fixed Asset Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 52,619 billion yuan in January-February, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%[19] - Consumer confidence remains low, with per capita disposable income growth at only 3.9%, leading to a decline in consumption willingness[21] - Retail sales in January-February totaled 83,731 billion yuan, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 4.0%[21] Group 4: Policy Responses and Economic Outlook - The fiscal deficit is projected to increase to 5.66 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of around 4%, aimed at stimulating economic growth[26] - Monetary policy is expected to shift towards easing, with indications of potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[30] - The overall economic environment is anticipated to stabilize in the second quarter, despite ongoing pressures from the trade war and domestic challenges[37]