Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market showed a weak and volatile trend this week due to the decline in safe - haven demand, the phased achievement of short - term trade agreements, and the upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks. The short - term outlook is still weak and volatile, but in the long - term, the upward trend of precious metals remains due to the increasing risk of economic recession and the "de - dollarization" process [6]. - After the non - farm payrolls data, there are still differences within the Fed. The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has soared, but it is not certain. Next week, the precious metals market will face a major test at the global central bank annual meeting, and Powell may dampen the market's current aggressive interest rate cut expectations [3][6][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Currency Attribute - **Inflation**: In July, US wholesale prices jumped, with the PPI rising 0.9% month - on - month, the largest monthly increase in three years. The July CPI inflation was moderate, but the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.9% [3][6]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: After the non - farm payrolls data, the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September soared from about 40% to around 90%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts this year increased from 1 to 3. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields faced resistance in their upward movement and returned to a weak trend [3][6]. - **Monetary Policy Review**: From 2024 to 2025, the Fed's monetary policy experienced multiple adjustments, including interest rate holds, cuts of different magnitudes, and changes in the expected number of interest rate cuts. The Fed's stance has been influenced by factors such as inflation, employment, and economic growth [11][12][13]. 2. Safe - Haven Attribute - Trump's trade war has entered a new stage, with the US - China tariff truce extended by 90 days. Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the "Trump - Putin meeting" is imminent, with Trump indicating that the US and Russia are "very close" to reaching an agreement [7][8]. 3. Commodity Attribute - **Gold**: Although gold jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars and other forms has offset some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets, including the People's Bank of China, are implementing a "de - dollarization" strategy, which keeps the central bank's gold - buying demand at a high level [4]. - **Silver**: The World Silver Association expects that due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap in 2025 will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) [4]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds in gold increased while those in silver decreased. Domestic Shanghai gold futures companies have continuously reduced their net long positions at a high level, and Shanghai silver has slightly reduced its net long positions at a low level. The world's largest gold and silver ETFs have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions [4]. 5. Future Investment Logic and Strategy - **Investment Logic**: In the short - term, the precious metals market is weak and volatile. In the medium - term, it will fluctuate at a high level, and in the long - term, it will show a step - by - step upward trend. The risk of economic recession in the long - term may force the Fed to cut interest rates, and the "de - dollarization" process will support the upward trend of precious metals [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: weak and volatile; Medium - term: high - level volatility; Long - term: step - by - step upward. The support and resistance levels for Shanghai gold futures are 760 - 765 and 790 - 795 respectively, and for Shanghai silver futures are 9000 - 9030 and 9400 - 9430 respectively [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, the demand for hedging is falling; the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising. It is expected that precious metals will be slightly stronger in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased. The strategy is that the conservative investors should wait and see, while the aggressive investors can buy low and sell high, and should manage positions well and set stop - loss and take - profit strictly [5][6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold 3.1.1 Core Logic - Short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, leading to a decline in hedging demand; the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising [1]. 3.1.2 Attributes - **Hedging Attribute**: US - China tariff truce is extended by 90 days, and the US and Russia are "very close" to reaching an agreement [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US July CPI inflation is moderate, core CPI rises year - on - year. July employment growth is weaker than expected, and the labor market deteriorates. Market expectation of the Fed's September interest rate cut probability soars from about 40% to over 80%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year rises from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury bond yields rebound [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. 3.1.3 Price and Related Data - **International Prices**: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $3407.00 per ounce, up $7.40 (0.22%) from the previous day, down $24.80 (- 0.72%) from last week; London gold is $3364.40 per ounce, up $21.10 (0.63%) from the previous day, down $7.60 (- 0.23%) from last week [2]. - **Domestic Prices**: Shanghai gold主力收盘价 is 778.70 yuan per gram, up 0.98 yuan (0.13%) from the previous day, down 6.32 yuan (- 0.81%) from last week; Gold T + D收盘价 is 775.10 yuan per gram, up 0.39 yuan (0.05%) from the previous day, down 6.92 yuan (- 0.88%) from last week [2]. - **Other Data**: Such as basis, spread, ratio, position, inventory, etc. For example, the net long position of top 10 futures companies in Shanghai gold is 145,591.00, with a decrease of 1,735.00 [2][3]. 3.2 Silver 3.2.1 Influencing Factors - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. Capital and inventory factors affect silver prices, with CFTC silver net long and iShare silver ETF slightly reducing positions, and recent explicit inventory slightly increasing [5]. 3.2.2 Price and Related Data - **International Prices**: Comex silver主力合约收盘价 is $38.55 per ounce, up $0.61 (1.61%) from the previous day, up $0.61 (1.62%) from last week; London silver is $38.61 per ounce, up $0.91 (2.43%) from the previous day, up $0.83 (2.20%) from last week [6]. - **Domestic Prices**: Shanghai silver主力收盘价 is 9286.00 yuan per kilogram, down 14.00 yuan (- 0.15%) from the previous day, up 28.00 yuan (0.30%) from last week; Silver T + D收盘价 is 9274.00 yuan per kilogram, down 4.00 yuan (- 0.04%) from the previous day, up 50.00 yuan (0.54%) from last week [6]. - **Other Data**: Such as basis, spread, position, inventory, etc. For example, the net long position of top 10 futures companies in Shanghai silver is 152,740.00, with an increase of 4,363.00 [6][7]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve Data**: Federal fund target rate upper limit is 4.50%, down 0.25 from the previous value; discount rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 from the previous value; reserve balance interest rate is 4.40%, down 0.25 from the previous value; total Fed assets are $66918.54 billion, down $7.62 billion (- 0.00%) from the previous value [8]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, up 0.30; core CPI year - on - year is 3.10%, up 0.30; etc. [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year is 1.90%, with no change; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is 3.00%, up 3.50 [10]. - **Labor Market Data**: Unemployment rate is 4.20%, up 0.10; non - farm employment monthly change is 7.30 million, up 0.59 million [10]. - **Other Data**: Such as real yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, US dollar index, US Treasury bond spread, etc. [8][10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.08%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.43%. The short - term trade agreements are to be reached in batches, and the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has rebounded. The report expects precious metals to be slightly bullish in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements in batches and upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks reduce risk - aversion demand; the US faces increasing stagflation risk, weak employment, and moderate inflation, leading to a rebound in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - **Risk - Aversion Attribute**: US President Trump has signed an executive order to extend the China - US tariff truce for another 90 days, and he also stated that gold will not face tariffs [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: The US CPI inflation in July was moderate, and investors increased their bets on the Fed's interest - rate cut in September. The US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls in the previous two months were significantly revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor market. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September has soared from about 40% before the non - farm data to over 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating downward [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the relatively strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [6]. - **Capital and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long and iShare Silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - Related**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are 6,691.854 billion US dollars, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.54% [9]. - **Bond and Currency - Related**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.55%, the US dollar index is 98.06, the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread is 0.61, the 2 - year to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread is 0.04, the US - Europe 10 - year bond yield spread is 1.66, and the US - China 10 - year bond yield spread is 3.10 [9][11]. - **Inflation - Related**: CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year is 3.10%, and core CPI month - on - month is 0.20 [11]. - **Economic Growth - Related**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 3.00%, the unemployment rate is 4.20%, and non - farm employment monthly change is 730,000 [11]. - **Other Aspects**: There are also data on the US labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and various risk and commodity - related indices [9][11][12]. Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at various Fed meeting dates from September 2025 to December 2026 are provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest - rate adjustments [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The hype of "anti - involution" is gradually cooling down, and the market will shift its focus to the demand situation in the peak season. The current price increase is mainly driven by the rise in coking coal prices. With the end of the summer heat, the apparent demand is expected to gradually recover, and the total inventory is expected to gradually decline. The futures price may advance the expectation of the demand recovery in the peak season, and the market focus is expected to turn to the peak - season consumption in September [2]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, with the profitable area of sample steel mills exceeding 68%. As the consumption peak season approaches, there is room for the iron - making water output of steel mills to rebound. However, the current iron - making water output is already at a relatively high level, so the room for further increase may be limited even in the peak season. The recent relatively strong performance of the futures price is largely related to the market's expectation of improved downstream demand [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Basis Information**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3258 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day and 0.77% from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3484 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day and 0.78% from last week. The basis of the threaded steel main contract is 112 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan and a weekly decrease of 15 yuan. The basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 26 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan and a weekly increase of 13 yuan [2]. - **Production and Supply**: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel output is 221.18 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.12 tons or 4.79%. The hot - rolled coil output is 314.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.90 tons or 2.45%. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.46%, and the average daily iron - making water volume of 247 steel mills is 240.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 tons or 0.16% [2]. - **Inventory and Demand**: The social inventory of five major varieties is 962.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.13 tons or 2.14%. The social inventory of threaded steel is 388.48 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.34 tons or 1.13%. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil is 278.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.10 tons or 3.76%. The apparent demand of five major varieties is 845.74 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.29 tons or 0.74% [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short - selling can be considered at high prices, and profits should be taken in a timely manner [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Price and Basis Information**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 801 yuan/dry ton, up 0.56% from the previous day and 0.31% from last week. The SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price is 104.43 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.90% from the previous day and 4.43% from last week. The basis of Mac fine (Qingdao Port) - DCE iron ore main contract is - 24 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 7.5 yuan [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipping volume shows that the Australian iron ore shipping volume is 1518.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 114.4 tons or 7.01%. The Brazilian iron ore shipping volume is 730.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55.0 tons or 8.14%. The 247 steel mills' iron - making water output last week was 240.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 tons [4]. - **Inventory Information**: The total port inventory is 13712.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.37 tons or 0.40%. The port trade ore inventory is 9111.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 69.45 tons or 0.77% [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try short - selling at high prices for the 01 contract [4]. III. Industry News - The machine - inspection system at Gants Mod Port was upgraded, adjusting the vehicle customs - declaration weight error threshold. On the 11th, the customs clearance at Gants Mod Port was 809 vehicles, a 23.53% decrease from the previous period. It is expected that the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the port will rebound to over 1000 on the 13th [6]. - An individual coking enterprise in Shandong has a production - restriction plan from August 16th to August 25th with a 30% restriction and from August 26th to September 3rd with a 50% restriction, and will resume normal production at 0:00 on September 4th. It is expected to affect about 4.1 tons of coke production in total [6]. - Angang, Bengang, and Lingang have synchronously raised the product prices for September. The prices of hot - rolled, wire rod, and threaded steel have all been raised by 200 yuan/ton, and the prices of pickled, cold - rolled, cold - hardened, galvanized, and non - oriented silicon steel have been raised by 300 yuan/ton [6]. - Satellite data shows that from August 4th to August 10th, 2025, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1321.5 tons, a 37.5 - ton increase from the previous period, showing a slight inventory rebound [6]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 14400.58 tons, an 89.61 - ton increase from last Monday. The inventory increase in this period is mainly concentrated in the East and South China regions [7]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Liulin area resumed production on August 9th after a 22 - day shutdown. The coal mine has a verified production capacity of 175 tons, and the daily output of clean coal after resumption is 0.35 tons [7]. - Yunnan's central and state - owned cement enterprises reported that local cement enterprises will soon announce a price increase of 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and the cement price in some markets may bottom out and rebound [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Recently, rebar and hot-rolled coils have maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with price increases mainly driven by rising coking coal and coke prices. There may be opportunities to go long on the spread between near and far contracts of rebar, and it is worth trying to short the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in the short term. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level, presenting a good long - term long - opportunity, while the ratio of rebar to coke has entered a downward cycle [8][45]. - The market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with "anti - involution" trading supporting futures prices. Seasonal improvement in demand is expected to be reflected in prices in advance [8]. - With the arrival of the consumption peak season, overall steel production is likely to increase slightly, and inventory is expected to continue to decline [8][94]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Main Views - Supply: Due to good production profits, overall steel production has remained stable in the past quarter, with the output of five major varieties fluctuating between 850 - 900 million tons per week, rebar output at around 220 million tons per week, and hot - rolled coil output recently decreasing. Production is expected to rise slightly in the peak season [8][94]. - Demand: The apparent demand for rebar has increased month - on - month, while that for hot - rolled coils has decreased. The overall apparent demand for the five major varieties has continued to decline. Apparent demand is expected to recover after the end of the summer heat, but the increase will be limited [8][94]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventories are decreasing. Although social inventories rebounded last week, the total inventory of the five major varieties has increased but remains significantly lower than last year. Currently, inventory pressure is low, and inventory may continue to decline in the peak season [8][94]. - Futures price support: "Anti - involution" trading supports futures prices, and the market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Seasonal demand improvement is expected to be reflected in prices in advance [8][94]. - Price trends and trading opportunities: Recently, rebar and hot - rolled coils have been volatile and slightly stronger, driven by coking coal and coke prices. There may be opportunities to go long on the spread between near and far contracts of rebar, while there are no trading opportunities for hot - rolled coil spreads for now. It is worth trying to short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the short term. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level with significant upside potential, and the ratio of rebar to coke has entered a downward cycle [8][45]. - Trading strategy: Treat rebar and hot - rolled coils with a wide - range volatility mindset, avoid chasing highs or selling lows, and try high - selling and low - buying operations with firm profit - taking and slightly larger stop - losses. Price movements will follow coking coal and coke, but with smaller price changes [8][94]. 3.2 Review of the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Futures and Spot Markets - Spot prices: Recently, rebar was generally weak, with prices in Shanghai and Guangzhou falling. Hot - rolled coils were generally strong, with prices in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Tianjin rising by 10 - 40 yuan [12][13]. - Futures prices: Rebar futures prices rose and then fell, with the basis narrowing. Hot - rolled coil prices also rose and then fell, approaching flat price. The basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally showed a narrowing trend [15][17][18]. - Spreads: The spread between near and far contracts of rebar has been falling, and there may be long - spread opportunities. The inter - contract spread of hot - rolled coils has been narrowly fluctuating, with no trading opportunities. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the 10 - contract has rapidly expanded, deviating from the normal level, and shorting this spread is worth trying [21][23][26]. - Other spreads: The spreads between different regions and varieties have generally widened, indicating improved downstream processing profits [36][38]. 3.3 Analysis of Steel Supply and Demand - Supply: Recent crude steel production has significantly declined, mainly due to previous low prices and poor expectations. Steel weekly production is higher than last year, and the output of independent electric arc furnaces remains relatively high. Iron - water production has also decreased slightly [47][49][56]. - Demand: The apparent demand for building materials has improved month - on - month, while that for hot - rolled coils has weakened. Steel exports rebounded in July, with the growth rate accelerating, mainly driven by high - speed growth in billet exports [62][65][67]. - Profit: The decline in gross profit is mainly due to the recent significant increase in coking coal and coke prices compared to rebar. Currently, the valley - electricity profit in all regions has improved significantly, and only the southwest region has good flat - electricity profit. Profit is expected to continue to improve in the third quarter, so short - term electric arc furnace output is not expected to decline significantly [70][79]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventories of major varieties are increasing but still in a downward trend. Social inventories are continuously increasing, with hot - rolled coil inventories rebounding rapidly. The total inventory of major varieties has increased month - on - month but is still significantly lower than last year [80][83][86]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Analysis - Market outlook: "Anti - involution" continues to support futures prices, and seasonal improvement in demand may be reflected in prices in advance. The market will continue the game between strong expectations and weak reality [93]. - Investment opportunities: There may be opportunities to go long on the spread between near and far contracts of rebar, and it is worth trying to short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the short term. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level, presenting a good long - term long - opportunity, while the ratio of rebar to coke has entered a downward cycle [8][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the documents. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, the risk - aversion demand declines; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, the employment weakens, the expectation of interest rate cuts rebounds, and the risk of rising inflation still exists [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and weak in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. Summary by Directory Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai Gold futures closed down 1.12%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver futures closed down 0.62% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, the risk - aversion demand declines; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, the employment weakens, the expectation of interest rate cuts rebounds, and the risk of rising inflation still exists [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Risk - aversion**: White House officials said that Trump had signed an executive order to extend the US - China tariff truce for another 90 days. Trump also said that gold would not face tariffs [1]. - **Monetary**: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls increase in the previous two months was significantly revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor market situation, increasing the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market's expected probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September soared from about 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 80%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The decline of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields faced resistance [1]. - **Commodity**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [1]. - **Data Summary**: Various gold - related data are provided, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, trading volume, inventory, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETF data [1]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price [5]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: Various silver - related data are provided, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, trading volume, inventory, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETF data [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are 6,691.854 billion US dollars, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.54%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, the US dollar index is 98.49, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.58 [8]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, CPI month - on - month is 0.30%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.90%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.30%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.58%, core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.79%, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in the US is 4.50%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation is 3.40 [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 3.00%, the unemployment rate is 4.20%, the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 730,000, the labor participation rate is 62.70%, the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.90%, etc. [10]. - **Other Data**: It also includes data on the US real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, risk - aversion and commodity - related indicators [10][11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectation The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from September 2025 to December 2026 is provided [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, and the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to begin, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. There will still be an inflation test in the middle of the month. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.81%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.72% [2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreement disputes, upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks leading to reduced risk - aversion demand; increased US stagflation risk, weakened employment, and rebounding interest - rate cut expectations; inflation test in the middle of the month [2]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Risk - Aversion Attribute**: US President Trump said on social media on Friday that he will meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska on August 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls in the previous two months were revised down by 258,000, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. The market's expected probability of a Fed rate cut in September has soared from about 40% before the non - farm data to over 80%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The decline of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields has encountered resistance [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2][3]. - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic gold prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETF are provided, showing different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: The net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic silver prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETF are provided, showing different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets are 6,691.854 billion US dollars, a decrease of 762 million US dollars compared with the previous week. M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [9]. - **Other Key Data**: Data on ten - year US Treasury real yields, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys are provided, showing different changes [9][10][11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserve and Related Ratios**: Data on central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world, as well as ratios such as gold/foreign exchange reserves and IMF foreign exchange reserve proportions are provided, showing different changes [11][12]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of different Fed interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 is provided [13].

2025 年 8 月 8 日星期五 投 资 就业走弱降息逻辑重启 贵金属仍需通过通胀大考？ www.shanjinqh.com 作者：林振龙 一、避险属性 投资 咨询资 格证号： 咨 询 部 1、特朗普贸易战进入新阶段，中美关税协议变数仍存。另外据英国《金 融时报》报道，美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）在一封日期为 7 月 31 日的信函 中宣布，将对进口的 1 公斤（约 32.15 盎司）和 100 盎司金条加征关税； Z0018476 审核：曹有明 2、地缘异动有所缓和，俄罗斯称普京和特朗普将在未来几天会晤，泽连 斯基称欧洲须参与谈判。 投资 咨询资 格证号： Z0013162 二、货币属性 复核：刘书语 1、金饰消费虽受高价抑制，但金条等投资需求抵消其部分影响。包括中 国央行在内，新兴市场央行"去美元化"战略推动央行购金需求保持高位； 近期 CFTC 管理基金金银净多头继续减仓；国内沪金期货公司净多高位连 续加仓，沪银净多低位重新加仓；世界最大黄金 ETF 和白银 ETF 结束长期下行 趋势后缓慢增仓。 五、未来的投资逻辑演变： 周 度 策 略 报 告 本周贵金属重新上行，主要逻辑在于：避险属性方面，特朗 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the high - level meeting, the "anti - involution" hype faded, and the market will focus on the demand during the peak season. The steel market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with potential further weakening of demand and rising inventory. For iron ore, the market is in the off - season, with high supply and limited upward space for iron - water production. Both steel and iron ore futures prices face downward pressure [2][4] - For steel, it is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - profits in time. For iron ore, short - term short positions can be held lightly with timely stop - profits [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Focus**: After the meeting, the market turns to focus on the peak - season consumption in September. The market shows a weak supply - demand situation, with potential further weakening of demand due to the ongoing hot summer [2] - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures have different changes compared to the previous day and week. Most spot prices have declined slightly. The basis and spreads of futures contracts also show various changes [2] - **Production and Profit**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remains stable, but the average daily iron - water volume has decreased. The proportion of profitable steel mills has increased. The rebar production has increased, while the hot - rolled coil production has decreased [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major varieties has increased, with both social and factory inventories of rebar rising, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing while the factory inventory has decreased [2] - **Demand and Orders**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties has declined slightly. The trading volume in the spot market has decreased significantly [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill profitability is acceptable, but the iron - water production is under pressure to decline. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the trade - mine inventory is high [4] - **Price and Spread**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have different changes compared to the previous day and week. The basis, futures monthly spreads, and variety spreads also show various trends [4] - **Shipping and Logistics**: The Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments have decreased. The shipping freight rates and exchange rates have changed, and the arrival volume of northern six ports has increased while the average daily port - clearance volume has decreased [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory and trade - mine inventory have decreased, and the sintered powder inventory of sample steel mills has also declined [4] 3. Industry News - HeSteel's August silicon - iron and silicon - manganese tender prices and quantities have changed compared to July [6] - Some coal mines have experienced production suspension and resumption, affecting the output of coking coal [6] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 16 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes increased short - term trade agreement disputes leading to rising risk - aversion demand, and growing stagflation risks in the US economy with weakening employment and a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Currently, there are small reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF in terms of capital, and a small increase in the visible inventory of silver [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals are volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.10%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.07% [1]. - **Core Logic** - **Risk - Aversion Attribute**: Trump's new round of tariffs triggered a global stock - market crash, and many countries sought renegotiation. Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India, and Russian oil and geopolitics led to an escalation of trade conflicts [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls increase in the previous two months was revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor - market situation. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased from about 40% before the non - farm data to around 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year rose from 1 to 2. Many Fed officials signaled growing concerns about economic slowdown, causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to fall under pressure [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary** - **Prices**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D showed different changes compared to the previous day and week [2]. - **Basis, Spreads, and Ratios**: The basis and spreads between Shanghai Gold and London Gold, and ratios such as the gold - silver ratio and gold - copper ratio also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Positions in Comex gold, Shanghai Gold main contract, and Gold T + D, as well as inventories in LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai Gold Exchange, showed different trends [2]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had specific data and changes [3]. Silver - **Core Relationship**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [5]. - **Current Situation**: There are small reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF in terms of capital, and a small increase in the visible inventory of silver [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary** - **Prices**: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices like Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D showed different changes compared to the previous day and week [6]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads between Shanghai Silver and London Silver had corresponding changes [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Positions in Comex silver, Shanghai Silver main contract, and Silver T + D, as well as inventories in LBMA, Comex, Shanghai Silver Exchange, and the total visible inventory, showed different trends [6]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had specific data and changes [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Key Indicators** - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, with a decrease of 0.25 compared to the previous value; the Fed's total assets are 6692.931 billion US dollars, a decrease of 16.008 billion US dollars (- 0.00%) [8]. - M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.54%, an increase of 0.37 [8]. - Ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, with a daily increase of 0.02 (0.81%) and a weekly decrease of 0.04 (- 1.57%) [8]. - US dollar index is 98.23, a daily decrease of 0.54 (- 0.54%) and a weekly decrease of 1.72 (- 1.72%) [8]. - Other indicators such as US Treasury yield spreads, inflation rates (CPI, core CPI), economic growth indicators (GDP), labor - market indicators, real - estate market indicators, consumption indicators, industrial indicators, trade indicators, and economic survey indicators also have specific data and changes [8][10]. - **Safe - Haven Attribute** - Geopolitical risk index is 123.07, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 77.02 (- 38.49%) [11]. - VIX index is 16.39, a daily decrease of 0.38 (- 2.27%) and a weekly decrease of 0.33 (- 1.97%) [11]. - **Commodity Attribute** - CRB commodity index is 293.13, a daily decrease of 0.20 (- 0.07%) and a weekly decrease of 6.65 (- 2.22%) [11]. - Offshore RMB is 7.1930, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.0063 (- 0.09%) [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves** - China's central - bank gold reserve is 2300.41 tons, an increase of 4.04 tons (0.18%) [10]. - US central - bank gold reserve is 8133.46 tons, with no change [11]. - Global central - bank gold reserve is 36268.07 tons, with no change [11]. - **IMF Foreign - Exchange Reserves and Gold/Reserves Ratio** - The proportion of the US dollar in IMF foreign - exchange reserves is 57.80%, an increase of 0.51 (0.88%) [11]. - The proportion of the euro is 19.83%, a decrease of 0.20 (- 0.99%) [11]. - The proportion of the RMB is 2.18%, a decrease of 0.00 (- 0.04%) [11]. - The global gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 22.18%, an increase of 0.88 (4.11%) [11]. - China's gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 6.78%, an increase of 0.29 (4.40%) [11]. - The US gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 78.64%, an increase of 0.67 (0.86%) [11]. - **Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations** - The probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at various Fed meetings from 2025/9/17 to 2026/12/9 are provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions [12].