1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pressure of simultaneous weakening of supply and demand persists, but the futures price is still expected to bottom out and rebound in the medium term [1] - In the third quarter, rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell, basically erasing the gains from the "anti - involution" speculation. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to decline, demand will seasonally weaken, and inventory is expected to continue to fall, but at a relatively slow pace [8] - From October to November, the market is dominated by weak reality, and prices tend to fluctuate and decline. Starting from December, the market is dominated by strong expectations, and the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound [8] - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and switch to going long on dips in the medium - term if a clear bottom pattern appears. For arbitrage, consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views - **Market Trend in Q3**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell. In early July, due to the "anti - involution" policy, industrial products rose significantly, but later, affected by high prices and demand concerns, prices declined from August to September [8][9] - **Supply**: Marginal profit is close to the break - even point, so steel mills have strong motivation to reduce production. In November, environmental protection restrictions may increase, and the "anti - involution" policy may be phased out, leading to a decline in supply. However, a decrease in production may cause a decline in iron ore and coke prices, resulting in a "negative feedback" cycle [8] - **Demand**: Downstream demand will seasonally weaken in the fourth quarter, reaching a low point during the Spring Festival next year. Before December, the market anticipates the weak demand in the off - season, pressuring the futures price. After December, the market is optimistic about the peak - season demand next year, boosting the futures price [8] - **Inventory**: Although the current inventory is relatively high, it is likely to continue to decline in the fourth quarter, but at a slow pace. If inventory rises, the price of rebar and hot - rolled coils will face pressure, forcing steel mills to cut production. The total inventory will seasonally rise before the Spring Festival, but the market will focus on the rising speed [8] - **Market Judgment**: From October to November, the market is affected by weak reality, and prices tend to fall. Starting from December, the market is driven by strong expectations, and the futures price is expected to rebound. The switch in rhythm depends on technical patterns, policies, and supply - demand conditions [8] - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term trading suggests shorting on rallies. In the medium - term, if a clear bottom pattern appears, switch to going long on dips and hold the position until after the Spring Festival next year [8] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8] 3.2 Review of the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils Spot and Futures Market in Q3 - **Price Trend**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell, returning to the level at the beginning of July, erasing the "anti - involution" gains. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased, with the increase in rebar's basis being more significant [8][9][14] - **Spread Analysis**: The spread between different contracts, regions, and varieties showed differentiation. The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of rebar decreased, while the spread between the 10 and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coils increased. The spread of the 10 - contract of the coil - to - rebar spread reached a record high, while the 01 and 05 contracts were within a reasonable range [22][25][28] - **Profit Analysis**: The profit of upstream and downstream processing slightly improved, which may be related to the "anti - involution" policy in the third quarter. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level and may rise, while the ratio of rebar to coke has declined and may continue to fall [30][33] 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis of Steel in Q4 - **Supply**: Steel production has been gradually decreasing, mainly due to the off - season consumption, the National Day holiday, and the "anti - involution" policy. The production of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills has decreased. The production of iron water remains high, but steel mills are likely to cut production in the future due to falling profits [36][38][47] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils during the National Day holiday reached a record low in recent years. The recovery of steel demand after the holiday is not satisfactory. The real estate market is still under pressure, which drags down the demand for steel. However, steel exports increased in September, mainly driven by the high - speed growth of billet exports [54][55][58] - **Inventory**: The inventory of major steel products has increased rapidly, especially for hot - rolled coils and cold - rolled coils, which reached record highs in the same period, indicating that the supply of downstream industrial materials exceeds demand. In the fourth quarter, steel mills still face great pressure to reduce inventory, but inventory is likely to decline seasonally [68][73][76] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Analysis - **Market Outlook**: The Langer Iron and Steel PMI index indicates pressure in the fourth quarter. Seasonal patterns suggest that the market is likely to be weak first and then strong in the fourth quarter. In the short - term, the downward trend since August is expected to continue, but in the medium - term, the futures price may bottom out and rebound [79][83][87] - **Investment Strategy**: For short - term trading, short on rallies. For medium - term trading, go long on dips if a clear bottom pattern appears. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rose and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.70%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.64% [2]. - In the short - term, due to the trade war and the US government shutdown, the risk aversion sentiment has escalated. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has begun to materialize [2]. - Trump's trade war escalation and the US government shutdown have increased market uncertainty [2]. - The labor market weakness has become the Fed's major concern in formulating policies. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. The US PCE inflation data met expectations, strengthening the bet that the Fed may continue to cut interest rates later this year. Currently, the market expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in October to remain around 90%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year is still about 2 [2]. - The implied lease rate of London silver has soared, indicating a tight supply of silver spot. The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and rise step - by - step in the medium - and long - term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. - **Relevant Data**: - International prices: Comex gold main contract closed at $4130.00 per ounce, up $94.50 (2.34%) from the previous day and up $145.60 (3.65%) from last week; London gold closed at $4095.95 per ounce, up $121.45 (3.06%) from the previous day and up $146.50 (3.71%) from last week [3]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 938.98 yuan per gram, up 11.42 yuan (1.23%) from the previous day and up 72.46 yuan (8.36%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 939.95 yuan per gram, up 13.47 yuan (1.45%) from the previous day and up 77.45 yuan (8.98%) from last week [3]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased by 1867 hands; the SPDR gold ETF decreased by 3.15 tons (- 0.33%) [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Relevant Data**: - International prices: Comex silver main contract closed at $50.78 per ounce, up $3.26 (6.86%) from the previous day and up $2.38 (4.91%) from last week; London silver closed at $51.24 per ounce, up $0.48 (0.95%) from the previous day and up $2.68 (5.51%) from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 11,533 yuan per kilogram, up 2 yuan (0.02%) from the previous day and up 594 yuan (5.43%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 11,530 yuan per kilogram, up 77 yuan (0.67%) from the previous day and up 652 yuan (5.99%) from last week [6]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC management funds increased by 1937 hands; the iShare silver ETF increased by 358.49 tons (2.33%) [6]. Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25% [8]. - The Fed's total assets were $6641.668 billion, up $4.268 billion (0.00%) [8]. - M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year [8]. - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.07 ( - 2.93%) [8]. - The US dollar index was 99.24, up 0.41 (0.41%) from the previous day and up 0.65 (0.66%) from last week [8]. - The US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) was 0.50, up 0.07 (16.28%) from the previous day and up 0.06 (12.77%) from last week [8]. Other Key Indicators - In terms of currency attributes, various inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industrial, and trade indicators have different degrees of change [10]. - In terms of risk - aversion attributes, the geopolitical risk index was 271.85, and the VIX index was 22.07, up 3.04 (15.97%) from the previous day and up 4.83 (28.02%) from last week [12]. - In terms of commodity attributes, the CRB commodity index was 295.54, up 2.78 (0.95%) from the previous day and down 5.53 ( - 1.84%) from last week; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1348, down 0.0074 ( - 0.10%) [12]. - Fed's latest interest rate expectations show different probabilities of interest rate ranges in different meeting dates from 2025 to 2027 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to move up in the short - term with a step - up trend in the long - term. Silver prices are anchored to gold price trends. The short - term rise in gold is driven by increased short - term risk aversion, enhanced risk - hedging attributes, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The silver market shows slight increases in net long positions and ETF holdings, along with a slight decrease in visible inventories [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.99%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.84% [2]. - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, risk aversion has increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown. The risk of US economic stagflation has risen, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts is being realized. Trump's trade war escalation, the US government shutdown, and the French Prime Minister's resignation have increased market uncertainty. Fed officials' warnings about the labor market and support for rate cuts, along with disappointing employment data and in - line inflation data, have strengthened the bet on further rate cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 rate cuts this year. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. - **Data Summary**: There are detailed data on international and domestic gold prices, basis, spreads, ratios, open interest, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and ETF holdings, as well as the net position rankings of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Gold Exchange [3][4]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices [6]. - **Fundamentals**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - **Data Summary**: There are detailed data on international and domestic silver prices, basis, spreads, open interest, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and ETF holdings, as well as the net position rankings of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Silver Exchange [7][8]. Key Fundamental Data - **Federal Reserve - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the reserve balance interest rate is 4.15%, and the Fed's total assets are $66416.68 billion. M2 year - on - year growth is 4.77%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and US Treasury spreads have changed to varying degrees [9]. - **Other Key Indicators**: There are data on US inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and risk - hedging and commodity - related indices [11][13].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年10月10日16时18分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位回调，沪金主力收跌1.25%，沪银主力收跌1.13%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，巴以冲突有所缓和，贸易战与美 国政府停摆避险仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期开始兑现。②避险属性方面，以色列批准加沙停 火协议，停火将在24小时内生效。美国政府关门、法国总理辞职等事件，加剧市场不确定性。③货币属性方面，美联储威廉姆斯 支持今年继续降息，因就业市场或进一步放缓。美联储9月降息25个基点并暗示将进一步下调利率。9月ADP就业减少3.2万人，大 幅低于市场预期的新增5.1万人。美国PCE通胀数据符合预期，加强了美联储今年晚些时候可能继续降息的押注。目前市场预期美 联储10月降息25基点概率维持90%附近，且年内降息次数预期仍有2次左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of precious metals fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 4.82%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.22%. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate strongly in the short - term and rise in steps in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, risks such as trade wars and the shutdown of the US government have increased, the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation has been moderate, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has begun to materialize. Events such as the US government shutdown and the resignation of the French Prime Minister have increased market uncertainty, and geopolitical changes in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. The ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. The Fed believes that the risk in the employment market has increased and remains vigilant about inflation. The US PCE inflation data met expectations, strengthening the bet that the Fed may continue to cut interest rates later this year. The market currently expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in October to remain around 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data**: International prices (Comex gold and London gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) all increased. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, ratio, position, and inventory [2]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Data**: International prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) all increased. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, position, and inventory [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets decreased by 21.792 billion US dollars, with a decrease of 0.00%. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) changed, and there were also changes in other key indicators such as the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year - 10 - year), US - Europe yield spread, and US - China yield spread [7][9]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and other inflation - related data changed to varying degrees [9]. - **Economic Growth and Employment**: GDP, unemployment rate, non - farm employment, and other data showed different trends [9]. - **Real Estate Market**: Data such as existing home sales, new home sales, and new home starts in the US real estate market changed [9]. - **Consumption and Industry**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditure, industrial production index, and other data changed [9]. - **Trade**: US export, import, and trade balance data changed [9]. - **Economic Surveys**: ISM manufacturing PMI, ISM services PMI, and other economic survey data changed [9]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world, as well as IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios and the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves, changed [11]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 21.50%, the VIX index decreased by 2.04%, the CRB commodity index increased by 1.27%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate changed [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, precious metals have continued to rise, but gold and silver have shown divergence. Gold has repeatedly reached new historical highs, while silver has followed up slowly and faced pressure to fall back. The main driving factors include increased risk - aversion sentiment, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. The current bull market in precious metals differs significantly from previous ones in terms of driving logic, amplitude, and the role of central banks. [4][5][7] - Looking ahead, before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise. However, after the interest rate cuts enter the second half, attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline in precious metal prices due to profit - taking, and the overall volatility of precious metals may further increase. [64] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Since 2025, gold has reached new highs, with London gold reaching a maximum of $3057.14 per ounce, Comex gold reaching $3065.2 per ounce, and domestic Shanghai gold reaching a maximum of 711.24 yuan per gram. Silver has followed up slowly, with London silver reaching a maximum of $34.224 per ounce and domestic Shanghai silver reaching a maximum of 8444 yuan per kilogram. [4] - The main logics for the rise of precious metals since the beginning of the year are: increased risk - aversion sentiment due to global economic and political restructuring, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. [5][7] - This bull market in precious metals differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "cyclical" to "structural"), amplitude and breadth (unprecedented global general increase), and the role of central banks (from "participants" to "leading forces"). [9][10] - The bull market in silver also differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "investment - led" to "investment + industrial demand dual - driven"), breadth and synchronicity (global value re - evaluation), and the relationship with gold (from "following" to "potentially leading"). [12][13] 3.2. Evolution Logic of Safe - Haven Attribute - The world is in the process of transitioning to a new order, with the US no longer the dominant power. There are risks of trade wars, government shutdowns, and potential geopolitical conflicts, which may increase the demand for safe - haven assets. Trump's policy expectations affect precious metal prices through multiple channels, and in the short term, risk - aversion sentiment may support precious metal prices, while in the long term, trade frictions may increase inflation or lead to economic recession, making precious metals more attractive. [14][16] - The volatility of the US stock market may rise, which will increase the safe - haven value of precious metals. [19] 3.3. Evolution Logic of Monetary Attribute - In 2025, US inflation may experience "re - inflation", and the eurozone is close to achieving its anti - inflation target, but trade war risks pose pressure on future interest rate cuts. The Fed has adjusted its monetary policy framework, which may lead to potential changes in US dollar liquidity and have different impacts on various countries. [23] - The US employment situation may continue to weaken, and Trump's new policies may accelerate the decline in employment. Non - farm payroll data has a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate decisions and precious metal prices. [32][35] - The Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates in 2025, with a total interest rate cut of about 50 basis points and the process expected to be completed around mid - 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool can help investors predict the Fed's interest rate trends. [41][42] - Global central bank monetary policies have shown significant divergence in recent years. The difference in interest rate cut expectations between the US and non - US countries is crucial. Later, the Fed's larger interest rate cut space may put pressure on the US dollar index. [45] 3.4. Evolution Logic of Commodity Attribute - In 2024, the global gold supply increased steadily, but demand declined. In 2025, demand is expected to continue to show structural divergence. Jewelry demand is suppressed by high gold prices, but official and private gold purchases offset some negative impacts. Gold ETFs, bars, and coins have strong demand, while gold jewelry demand shows a tonnage - consumption divergence. [51] - The World Silver Association predicts that in 2025, the global silver supply - demand gap will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply. [56] 3.5. Technical Analysis - London gold has been in an upward trend since 2000. After reaching a high in 2011 and then falling back, it has started a new upward trend since 2016. In 2025, it has accelerated its upward movement. It is expected to continue to rise before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels of $3750 - 4000 (about 850 - 910 yuan for Shanghai gold) and the support level of $3400 (about 770 yuan for Shanghai gold). [58][59] - London silver has followed a similar trend to gold since 1994. Since 2016, it has oscillated upward along the 20 - year line. The recent rebound in global silver industrial demand may drive its price up. Attention should be paid to the pressure range of $49.8 - 55 (about 11780 - 13000 yuan for Shanghai silver) and the support level of $37.9 (about 8960 yuan for Shanghai silver). [62] 3.6. Future Market Development Direction from the Perspective of Long - Short Game - The reconstruction of the global economic and political system promotes the reconstruction of the monetary system. The safe - haven demand under global economic uncertainty and policy game are complexly intertwined. The continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term Sino - US game, and repeated geopolitical conflicts still support the precious metal market. Before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline. [64] 3.7. Overview of the Domestic Precious Metal Industry Chain - In the first half of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 179.083 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.31%. After including imported raw material gold, the total gold production was 252.761 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.44%. Key gold mine projects are advancing rapidly, and large - scale gold enterprises' overseas mine production has increased. [67][68] - In the first half of 2025, domestic gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. Gold jewelry consumption was suppressed by high prices, while demand for gold bars and coins increased, and industrial and other gold uses also increased. [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.35% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 3.92%. The short - term investment strategy for both gold and silver suggests that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [1][2][6]. - The short - term core logic for gold includes increased trade - war concerns, ongoing worries about the Fed's independence, rising risks of U.S. economic stagflation, weakening employment, and moderate inflation, leading to the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Trump's new tariffs from the national to the industry level have broken the relatively calm trade situation, and there are still geopolitical disturbances in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more cuts this year. The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen under pressure. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term and rise in a step - like manner in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net longs and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex gold and London gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai gold and gold T + D) have all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex gold主力 contract's closing price increased by 0.25% compared to the previous day and 1.89% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold positions increased by 3.76% compared to the previous week, while Shanghai gold主力 positions decreased by 0.87% compared to the previous day but increased by 10.05% compared to the previous week. LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Futures Company Member Net Position Ranking**: The top 20 long - position members' net long positions totaled 183,220, an increase of 3,550 (41.27% daily increase). The top 20 short - position members' net short positions totaled 23,066, a decrease of 251 (5.20% daily increase) [3]. Silver - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) have all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex silver主力 contract's closing price increased by 3.07% compared to the previous day and 8.00% compared to the previous week [6]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: CFTC silver net longs and iShare silver ETF slightly increased their positions. The recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased. For example, the total visible inventory decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous week [5][6]. - **Futures Company Member Net Position Ranking**: The top 20 long - position members' net long positions totaled 188,609, a decrease of 18,061 (22.28% daily increase). The top 20 short - position members' net short positions totaled 95,783, a decrease of 1,179 (11.31% daily increase) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit and the discount rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 0.00%. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury real yield increased by 0.83% compared to the previous day [8]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI increased by 0.20% year - on - year, and core CPI increased by 0.10% year - on - year. The PCE price index increased by 0.14% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index increased by 0.05% year - on - year [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP decreased by 0.30% year - on - year in annualized terms but increased by 4.40% quarter - on - quarter in annualized terms. The unemployment rate increased by 0.10% [10]. - **Other Data**: Geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, VIX index increased by 3.14% compared to the previous day, CRB commodity index increased by 0.55% compared to the previous day, and the offshore RMB increased by 0.39% compared to the previous day [11]. - **Fed Interest - Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October 2025 is 89.3%, and the probability changes over different meeting dates in the future [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For precious metals, in the short - term, gold is weak while silver is strong, and in the long - term, they are expected to rise step - by - step. The reasons include short - term hedging factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence and increased stagflation risks in the US economy; geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East; the Fed's interest rate cuts and market expectations of further cuts; and the impact of the CRB commodity index and RMB exchange rate on the price [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.01%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 2.27% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term hedging: Trade agreements are reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence resurface; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are being fulfilled. Hedging attribute: Geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The attempt by Trump to fire Fed Governor Cook and Cook's lawsuit against Trump for over - stepping his authority to remove her have raised concerns about the Fed's independence. Monetary attribute: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. Market expectations are that the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in October remains around 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold showed different changes; domestic prices of Shanghai gold and gold T + D increased; various bases, spreads, and ratios also changed; positions in Comex gold, Shanghai gold, and gold TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai gold also changed [2]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [5]. - **Funds and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver increased; domestic prices of Shanghai silver and silver T + D also rose; bases and spreads changed; positions in Comex silver, Shanghai silver, and silver TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, Shanghai silver, and silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange changed, and the total explicit inventory increased slightly [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: Federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. Various bond spreads, inflation indicators, and economic growth indicators showed different changes [8][10]. - **Risk Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 16.79%, and the VIX index increased by 6.62% [11]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index increased by 1.46% [11]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in different periods from 2025 to 2027 are presented in the table [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a suppressive effect on raw materials and supports steel prices, but it is less than the previous "anti - involution" hype expectations. The increase in apparent demand is mainly due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream, and may not represent a trend. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to maintain a shock pattern [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, with an overall under - expected effect and a negative impact on raw materials. The supply is at a high level, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the demand for iron ore. The upward trend of the 01 contract needs further observation [6]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Supply and Demand**: The output of rebar increased from a decline, the factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks, and the social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. The total output of the five major varieties increased by 9.5 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory increased by 3.0 tons, the social inventory decreased by 12.2 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 9.1 tons. The apparent demand increased by 23.73 tons [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose and then fell, indicating significant resistance above. Currently, the prices are near the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the opening of the Bollinger Band is narrowing, with a high probability of maintaining a shock [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Aggressive investors can try to go long at low prices with a light position [3]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of sample steel mills has adjusted. The iron ore output of 247 steel mills was 2.41 million tons last week, an increase of 0.5 tons week - on - week. The global shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the demand [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated and fell back. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Wait patiently for a full adjustment and go long after other varieties stabilize. Be cautious about chasing up [6]. **III. Industry News** - Some coke enterprises in Changzhi and Xingtai plan to adjust coke prices, with increases ranging from 50 - 85 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on September 26 [8]. - As of the week of September 25, the output of rebar increased from a decline, the factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks, and the social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks [8]. - As of September 25, the start - up rate and capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry remained unchanged from the previous two weeks, with a daily output of 160,200 tons. The total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 2.55% week - on - week, reaching a new low since the end of January [8]. - The EU Commission plans to impose additional tariffs of 25% - 50% on Chinese steel and related products in the next few weeks [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion factors include the phased achievement of trade agreements, concerns about the Fed's independence, increased risk of stagflation in the US economy, weakening employment, and moderate inflation, with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations starting to materialize [2]. - Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist, and Trump's attempt to fire Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence [2]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month and hinted at further rate cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year [2]. - The CRB commodity index faces pressure in its rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - Precious metals are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. There has been a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the visible inventory of silver recently [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.03%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.83% [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3719.40 per ounce, up 1.12% from the previous day; London gold at $3663.15 per ounce, up 0.53%; Shanghai gold main contract at 860 yuan per gram, up 0.53%; gold T + D at 856.27 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [3]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions increased by 4.73% from the previous week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 186.19%; Shanghai gold registered warehouse receipts increased by 0.38% [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai gold in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 112,314, a decrease of 3,744; the top 10 totaled 150,089, a decrease of 2,445 [4]. 3.2 Silver - **Market Influencing Factors**: The price of gold is the anchor for silver prices. There was a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in visible inventory [6]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex silver main contract closed at $44.27 per ounce, down 0.11% from the previous day; London silver at $44.33 per ounce, up 1.35%; Shanghai silver main contract at 10,397 yuan per kilogram, up 0.46%; silver T + D at 10,349 yuan per kilogram, up 0.72% [7]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions increased by 3.99% from the previous week; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 32.90%; visible inventory decreased by 0.13% [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai silver in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 112,866, an increase of 11,247; the top 10 totaled 166,336, an increase of 10,752 [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are $66,593.66 billion, up 0.00% [9]. - **Economic Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.39, up 3.02% from the previous week; the US dollar index is 97.23, down 0.10% from the previous day [9]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.90%, up 0.20 from the previous value; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.10% [11]. - **Other Data**: Geopolitical risk index is 128.06, up 1.97% from the previous week; VIX index is 16.50, down 0.84% from the previous day; CRB commodity index is 299.88, up 0.72% from the previous day [12]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest - rate ranges at different times in the future is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate adjustments [13].