Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The report anticipates a 4% expansion in the US soybean planting area in 2026, while the latest forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is 178.76 million tons, a reduction of over 2 million tons from the September prediction due to irregular rainfall in some regions [2]. - Night trading of protein meal showed a weak trend. The USDA供需 report lowered the US soybean yield forecast for 2025/26, resulting in a decrease in production and ending stocks. However, as the market's expectation for the report's adjustment strength was high, the actual data was less favorable. Recently, the US soybean crushing demand has been strong, but the US soybean futures price has corrected due to significant increases. The domestic soybean meal market remains loose with high inventory, and it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will adjust following the US soybean in the short term [2]. - Night trading of oils and fats showed a weak and volatile trend. The MPOB report indicated an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and exports, leading to continued inventory accumulation to 2.46 million tons. After the report was released, the market showed a situation of "bad news is out." Regarding soybean oil, market rumors suggest that the EPA is preparing to submit the final RVO plan to the White House, boosting the demand expectation for soybean oil in biodiesel. It is expected that the futures prices of related oils and fats will strengthen in the short term. However, due to the upcoming arrival of Australian rapeseeds and frequent state reserve sales, the supply of rapeseed raw materials has increased, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8,356, 8,852, 9,813, 3,022, 2,419, and 8,844 respectively, with price changes of 36, 144, -61, -19, -12, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.43%, 1.65%, -3.15%, -0.62%, -0.49%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09 are -290, -236, -451, -920, 1,353, and 433 respectively, compared with previous values of -288, -264, -460, -952, 1,484, and 532. The current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, Y - M09 are -26, 80, 491, 1.20, 2.73, and 5,038 respectively, compared with previous values of -53, 88, 467, 1.19, 2.75, and 5,026 [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,176 ringgit/ton, 1,135 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 321 dollars/ton respectively, with price changes of 241, -15, -1, and -6, and percentage changes of 6.12%, -1.33%, -1.30%, and -1.72% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8,640 and 8,670 respectively, with a percentage change of 0.70%; the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8,810 and 8,740 respectively, with a percentage change of 1.38% and 1.39%; the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9,780 and 9,860 respectively, with a percentage change of -0.31% and -0.30%. The spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 2,990, with a percentage change of -0.99% and -1.32%; the spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2,400 and 2,490 respectively, with a percentage change of -1.64% and -1.58%; the spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7,450 and 7,400 respectively, with a percentage change of -1.32% and 0.00% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil is 284 and 314; the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil is -42 and -112; the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil is -33 and 47; the spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal is -32; the spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal is -19 and 71; the spot basis of Linyi and Anyang peanuts is -344 and -394. The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is -20; the spot spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1,500; the spot spread between Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 510 [1]. Import Profit and Crush Margin - The current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is -411, compared with a previous value of -469. The current import profit of near - month US Gulf soybeans is -337, compared with a previous value of -339. The current import profit of near - month Brazilian soybeans is -32, compared with a previous value of -267. The current import profit of near - month US West soybeans is -253, compared with a previous value of -260. The current import profit of near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil is 491, compared with a previous value of 554 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 24,627, 730, 4,161, 40,890, 2,000, and 0 respectively, compared with previous values of 24,731, 730, 5,253, 41,073, 2,745, and 0 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current economic fundamentals data is weak, and the central bank will continue to adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance. It is expected that market liquidity will remain reasonably abundant, which has a certain supporting effect on Treasury bond futures prices. The position transfer and replacement has started recently, and it is recommended to make a position transfer plan [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2512 contract fell by 0.07%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract changed. For instance, the open interest of the T2512 contract decreased by 22,730, while that of the T2603 contract increased by 12,402 [2] - **Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of each contract also changed. For example, the inter - delivery spread of TS2512 was 0.050, down from the previous value of 0.060 [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally declined. SHIBOR 7 - day interest rate dropped by 3.1bp, DR007 interest rate dropped by 0.52bp, and GC007 interest rate dropped by 2.7bp [2] - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, the yields of key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose by 0.5bp to 1.82%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 30.71bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, the 10Y Treasury bond yields of the US, Germany, and Japan all increased. The US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose by 1bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose by 2bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield rose by 2bp [2] 3.3 Macro News and Strategies - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 19, the central bank carried out 3105 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 1955 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, the net investment was 1150 billion yuan [3] - **Treasury Cash Management**: The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct the bidding for the 11th and 12th installments of the 2025 central treasury cash management commercial bank time deposits on November 24, with operation volumes of 120 billion yuan (1 - month term) and 80 billion yuan (21 - day term) respectively [3] - **International and Domestic Economic Situations**: The US government ended the "shutdown", and the Fed's decision - makers had serious differences when cutting interest rates last month. They were cautious about future interest rate cuts, and US Treasury bond yields rebounded. In China, the year - on - year growth rates of social financing stock, M2, and M1 in October declined. Industrial production, consumption growth rates slowed down, and investment decline widened, mainly dragged down by the real estate sector [3] - **Interest Rate Trends**: On November 19, most money market interest rates declined. US Treasury bond yields rose across the board [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be strong [2] - Zinc: Likely to fluctuate within a range [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Night trading saw a rise in copper prices. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment maintains positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc: Night trading saw a decline in zinc prices. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 86,080 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 50 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 10,803 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 33.13 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 140,500 tons; LME inventory daily change: 4,450 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 21,525 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 20 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,815 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 32.88 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 548,075 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 2,125 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 22,420 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 75 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,990 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 152.14 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 43,525 tons; LME inventory daily change: 3,550 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 115,650 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 3,120 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 14,640 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 197.66 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 257,832 tons; LME inventory daily change: 138 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 17,230 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 140 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,015 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 27.39 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 264,800 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 1,325 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 293,370 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 1,950 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 36,945 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 100.00 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 3,055 tons; LME inventory daily change: 0 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side, and zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - For copper, night - time prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, supporting copper prices in the long run [2] - For zinc, night - time prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious, and it may fluctuate within a range [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market situation: Night - time copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, and smelting output has high growth. Grid investment has positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2] - Future outlook: The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand deficit, supporting copper prices in the long term. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 85,650 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 25 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,698 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 35.33 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 136,050 tons, and the daily change was 325 tons [2] Zinc - Market situation: Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventory is at a high level, infrastructure investment growth slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance output has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2] - Future outlook: The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious, and it may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,310 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 75 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,991 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 129.76 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 39,975 tons, and the daily change was 1,000 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,420 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 40 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,790 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 35.81 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 550,200 tons, and the daily change was - 2,175 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 114,840 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 2,590 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,645 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 199.86 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 257,694 tons, and the daily change was 5,604 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,210 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 150 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,027 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 28.21 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 266,125 tons, and the daily change was 43,650 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 288,890 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 1,800 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 36,860 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 5.01 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,055 tons, and the daily change was - 10 tons [2]

20251119申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 投资咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 488.1 | 491.3 | 65.19 | 64.66 | 69.64 | 68.80 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 488.0 | 490.6 | 65.22 | 64.59 | 69.07 | 68.26 | | | 涨跌 | 0.1 | 0.7 | -0.03 | 0.07 | 0.57 | 0.54 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.02% | 0.14% | -0.05% | 0.11% | 0.83% | 0.79% | | | 成交量 | 234 | 88,721 | 240,484 | 155,928 | 210,514 | 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US stock market continues to decline despite an improvement in the "small non - farm" data. The international economic and trade order is impacted by high tariffs and other barriers. [1] - The stock index market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. The technology sector is a long - term focus. The domestic glass and纯碱 markets are in a process of inventory digestion, and the crude oil market has a downward trend. [2][3] 3. Summary by Category A. Main News - **International News**: Trump claims to have selected the next Fed Chair candidate, and the short - listed candidates include current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid. [6] - **Domestic News**: In October, the unemployment rates of the non - student urban labor force aged 16 - 24, 25 - 29, and 30 - 59 are 17.3%, 7.2%, and 3.8% respectively. [1][7] - **Industry News**: After Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou, and Tianjin, Nanjing and Suzhou in Jiangsu Province will carry out real - estate trust property registration pilot projects. [8] B. Performance of Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: US indices decline. The domestic stock index market had a correction, with the media and computer sectors leading the rise, and coal and power equipment sectors leading the fall. The trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The technology sector is a long - term direction, and the market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. [2][11] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures remain weak, with last week's inventory at 5962 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 54 million heavy cases. Soda ash futures slightly decline, with last week's inventory at 154.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 tons. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. [2][17] - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rises 0.74%. An attack on a port in Russia causes it to suspend oil exports, equivalent to 2% of global supply. US refined oil demand is lower than last year, and the number of online drilling rigs shows a long - term downward trend. [3][13] C. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The long - term trend is positive, with a focus on the technology sector. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be loose, and external funds may flow in. [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rise slightly. The central bank's open - market operations and the economic situation at home and abroad affect the bond market. The market liquidity is expected to be reasonably abundant. [12] - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is difficult to reverse, affected by supply and demand factors. [3][13] - **Methanol**: It rises slightly at night. The inventory is accumulating, and the short - term trend is weak. [14] - **Rubber**: It is expected to continue to rebound in the short term, affected by supply and demand and weather conditions. [15] - **Polyolefins**: Futures decline. The downstream demand is stable, but the market sentiment is affected by the overall market. It may continue to fluctuate at a low level. [16] - **Metals** - **Copper**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the long - term price may be supported by the supply - demand gap. [19] - **Zinc**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and the price may fluctuate within a range. [20] - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend may correct, depending on factors such as supply, steel de - stocking speed, and iron - water production. [21] - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: It adjusts weakly at night. The US soybean production and inventory data are mixed, and the domestic market is in a loose pattern. [22] - **Oils and Fats**: They run strongly at night. The palm oil market has different supply - demand situations, and the soybean oil is supported. The rapeseed oil may fluctuate. [23] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to decline, while the domestic market may fluctuate within a range. [24][25] - **Cotton**: The price is weak. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. [26] - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price fluctuates and declines. The price support in November is uncertain, and the 02 contract has limited upward space. [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The 15th Five - Year Plan still focuses on technological self - reliance, and the technology sector is expected to be a long - term direction. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, residents may increase their allocation of equity assets, and with the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. Although funds are relatively cautious near the end of the year and the market style is more balanced compared to the third quarter, the current market trend is still expected to maintain a long - term and slow - rising bull market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4595.80, 4581.40, 4552.40, and 4513.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4569.60, 4555.00, 4523.00, and 4476.80. There were declines of - 20.00, - 18.80, - 23.00, and - 27.20, with corresponding percentage declines of - 0.44, - 0.41, - 0.51, and - 0.60. The trading volumes were 23964.00, 76476.00, 15119.00, and 6304.00, and the open interests were 33649.00, 158826.00, 67946.00, and 18267.00, with changes in open interest of - 3588.00, 4718.00, 3154.00, and 1683.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices for IH contracts were 3072.60, 3068.80, 3064.00, and 3059.60, and the previous day's closing prices were 3034.00, 3030.40, 3025.80, and 3017.00. The declines were - 36.60, - 37.40, - 37.40, and - 39.40, with percentage declines of - 1.19, - 1.22, - 1.22, and - 1.29. The trading volumes were 9482.00, 32072.00, 5074.00, and 1605.00, and the open interests were 11938.00, 62716.00, 17381.00, and 5086.00, with changes in open interest of - 824.00, 1112.00, 452.00, and 66.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices for IC contracts were 7215.80, 7143.40, 6960.40, and 6757.80, and the previous day's closing prices were 7152.80, 7079.80, 6897.00, and 6690.00. The declines were - 62.40, - 61.00, - 66.00, and - 69.60, with percentage declines of - 0.86, - 0.85, - 0.95, and - 1.03. The trading volumes were 26417.00, 83267.00, 17679.00, and 7077.00, and the open interests were 31223.00, 139697.00, 60086.00, and 23013.00, with changes in open interest of - 1529.00, 6266.00, 1185.00, and 2263.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices for IM contracts were 7566.00, 7478.40, 7246.00, and 7012.00, and the previous day's closing prices were 7468.40, 7372.00, 7140.00, and 6913.40. The declines were - 81.80, - 90.80, - 91.80, and - 88.80, with percentage declines of - 1.08, - 1.22, - 1.27, and - 1.27. The trading volumes were 34335.00, 125074.00, 23113.00, and 10057.00, and the open interests were 53957.00, 182376.00, 82892.00, and 37997.00, with changes in open interest of - 1680.00, - 1368.00, 2359.00, and 1746.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM (next month - current month) were - 14.60, - 3.60, - 73.00, and - 96.40 respectively, and the previous values were - 14.40, - 3.80, - 72.40, and - 87.60 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 4568.19, with a trading volume of 177.71 billion lots and a total trading amount of 4201.50 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4598.05, with a decline of - 0.65% [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 3003.02, with a trading volume of 43.59 billion lots and a total trading amount of 1062.01 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 3012.07, with a decline of - 0.30% [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 7151.02, with a trading volume of 202.21 billion lots and a total trading amount of 3065.40 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7235.35, with a decline of - 1.17% [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the index points was 7502.76, with a trading volume of 271.97 billion lots and a total trading amount of 4062.93 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7590.58, with a decline of - 1.16% [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries such as information technology, energy, raw materials, etc. showed various percentage declines. For example, the information technology industry had a decline of - 3.39% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **CSI 300**: The previous value of the basis was - 96.54 [1] - **SSE 50**: No relevant basis value details provided - **CSI 500**: The previous values of the basis for different contracts were 1.78, - 71.22, - 254.02, - 461.02, and the previous two - day values were - 19.55, - 91.95, - 274.95, - 477.55 [1] - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The previous values of the basis for IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) against CSI 1000 were - 34.36, - 130.76, - 362.76, - 589.36, and the previous two - day values were - 24.58, - 112.18, - 344.58, - 578.58 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3939.81, 13080.49, 7957.60, and 3069.22 respectively, and the previous two - day value of the Shanghai Composite Index was 3105.20, with a decline of - 1.16% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25930.03, 50323.91, 6617.32, and 23153.92 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 26384.28, 50376.53, 6672.41, and 23590.52. The percentage declines were - 1.72%, - 0.10%, - 0.83%, and - 1.85% respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The Chinese Foreign Ministry's Asia Department Director was dissatisfied with the results of the consultation with Japan. China maintains its stance on safeguarding core interests and international justice, and demands that Japan correct its wrong remarks [2] - The US has modified the transparency rules for patent invalidation applications, targeting some Chinese enterprises. China's Ministry of Commerce will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [2] - Premier Li Qiang called for free trade and less trade barriers at the SCO meeting, and proposed strengthening cooperation in areas such as new energy [2] - Hainan Free Trade Port is ready for the full - island customs - closure operation, and more financial reform and opening - up measures will be piloted in Hainan [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Shanghai will accelerate the construction of "good houses", promote the renovation of urban villages, and expand the supply of affordable housing [2] - Jiangsu will conduct a pilot program for real - estate trust property registration in Nanjing and Suzhou [2] - Chongqing plans to reach an AI terminal industry scale of over 300 billion yuan by 2030 [2] - China will standardize the management of satellite navigation and positioning reference stations from January 1st next year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The current economic fundamentals are weak, and the central bank will continue to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance. Market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably ample, which provides some support for Treasury bond futures prices. With the recent start of position transfer, it is recommended to plan for position transfer [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Treasury bond futures prices generally rose in the previous trading day, with the T2512 contract rising 0.01% and its open interest decreasing [2]. - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 0.4bp, DR007 rate fell 0.27bp, and GC007 rate rose 1.1bp [2]. Spot Market - Yields of key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield fell 0.04bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 29.71bp [2]. Overseas Market - The 10Y US Treasury bond yield fell 1bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield fell 1bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield rose 1.4bp [2]. Macroeconomic News - On November 18, the central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 37 billion yuan [3]. - The unemployment rates of different age groups in urban China in October were announced, with the 16 - 24 age group at 17.3%, the 25 - 29 age group at 7.2%, and the 30 - 59 age group at 3.8% [3]. - The scale of US Treasury bonds held overseas in September slightly declined from the record high in August. China's holdings decreased by 500 million US dollars to 700.5 billion US dollars [3]. Industry Information - Most money market interest rates rose. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank lending for some terms reached new highs since July [3]. - US Treasury bond yields collectively declined [3]. Comment and Strategy - Treasury bond futures prices rose slightly, and the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell to 1.801%. The central bank's net investment and other factors affected the market. With weak economic data, the central bank's policy stance supports Treasury bond futures prices, and position transfer planning is recommended [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. On the spot side, Sinopec lowered the price of linear LL by 50 in some areas, while PetroChina kept it stable. For drawn PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina maintained stable prices. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily being released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins themselves is at a low level, and the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the future [2]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6785, 6852, and 6906 respectively, with price drops of -58, -50, and -43 and declines of -0.85%, -0.72%, and -0.62% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6392, 6497, and 6546 respectively, with price drops of -75, -68, and -60 and declines of -1.16%, -1.04%, and -0.91% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 260592, 69005, and 445 respectively, and the open interests were 548344, 131144, and 2323 respectively, with changes of 6049, 16030, and 69 respectively. The trading volumes of PP for January, May, and September were 314026, 61784, and 1579 respectively, and the open interests were 638372, 159944, and 8789 respectively, with changes of 5494, 2063, and -345 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -67, -54, and 121 respectively, compared with the previous values of -59, -47, and 106. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -105, -49, and 154 respectively, compared with the previous values of -98, -41, and 139 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2037 yuan/ton, 5885 yuan/ton, 560 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6200 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2034 yuan/ton, 5845 yuan/ton, 555 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6230 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream Market**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6950 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6250 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6400 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6250 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - Due to Ukraine's attack on a refinery in a European country and the sanctions measures to take effect in the US this weekend, market concerns about distillate supply have intensified. The soaring diesel price has pushed up the fluctuations of European and American crude oil futures. As of the close on November 18, WTI in December 2025 rose 0.83 to 60.74 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.39%; Brent crude oil in January 2026 rose 0.69 to 64.89 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.07%. China's crude oil futures SC main contract 2601 closed up 1.5 yuan/barrel to 462.3 yuan/barrel [2].

| | 1、央行公告称，11月17日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2830亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2830 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量2830亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1199亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1631亿元。 | | | 2、外交部发言人毛宁在例行记者会上强调，针对日本首相高市早苗涉台错误言论，中方已经并将继续向日方提出严正 交涉和强烈抗议，严肃要求日方立即反思纠错，收回错误言论，停止在涉华问题上制造事端。另外，在二十国集团领 | | | 导人峰会期间，李强总理没有会见日方领导人的安排。 | | | 3、国务院副总理何立峰与德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔共同主持第四次中德高级别财金对话。联合声明显示，双方 欢迎符合条件的沪深交易所上市公司在法兰克福证交所发行全球存托凭证（GDR），欢迎符合条件的法兰克福证交所上 | | | 市公司在沪深交易所发行中国存托凭证（CDR）。双方同意推动中德金融基础设施互联互通。 | | | 4、财政部公布数据显示，今年1-10月，全国财政收入18.65万亿元，同比增长0.8%。10月单月，全国财政收入2.26万 ...