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申万期货品种策略日报:国债-20250926
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On September 25, the central bank carried out 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan; it also conducted 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, achieving a net MLF injection of 3000 billion yuan, which effectively alleviated the liquidity pressure. Amid the stock - bond seesaw effect, the scale of bond funds decreased slightly. The US Q2 GDP final value was significantly revised up, and the core PCE price index was also adjusted upward. The monetary market interest rates mostly rose on September 25, and US Treasury yields mostly increased. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the domestic central bank has more policy space, but the central bank stated that the next policy adjustment needs to wait for the unified deployment of the central government. Considering the continued strength of the equity market, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view on long - term bonds and stay on the sidelines for short - term bonds [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury futures prices showed mixed performance. The T2512 contract fell 0.04%, and its trading volume increased. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. The short - term market interest rates also showed mixed movements, with the SHIBOR 7 - day rate down 0.6bp, the DR007 rate up 9.09bp, and the GC007 rate up 0.3bp [2] Spot Market - On the previous trading day, the yields of key - maturity Chinese Treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 0.94bp to 1.89%, and the spread between long - and short - term (10 - 2) Treasury bond yields was 41.54bp [2] Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 2bp, the 10 - year German Treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10 - year Japanese Treasury bond yield rose 0.4bp [2] Macro News - On September 25, the central bank carried out 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan; it also conducted 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, achieving a net MLF injection of 3000 billion yuan, which effectively alleviated the liquidity pressure. China submitted a position paper on the special and differential treatment issue to the WTO, and does not seek new special and differential treatment in current and future WTO negotiations. The Ministry of Commerce launched a trade and investment barrier investigation into relevant Mexican measures. As of the end of August, the scale of China's public funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 36.25 trillion yuan, with a sharp monthly increase of 1.18 trillion yuan. The US Q2 GDP final value was significantly revised up to an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was adjusted from 2.5% to 2.6% [3] Industry Information - On September 25, most money market interest rates rose. The weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank lending for various terms reached new highs in different periods. Most US Treasury yields increased, with the 2 - year yield rising 4.50bp, the 3 - year rising 5.08bp, the 5 - year rising 3.91bp, the 10 - year rising 1.93bp, and the 30 - year falling 0.40bp [3] Comment and Strategy - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped to 1.805%. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity through MLF operations. The short - end Shibor showed mixed performance, and the cross - festival funding situation tightened. Consumption and production growth rates declined in August, and the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase. The central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy and implements a moderately loose monetary policy. The Fed restarted interest - rate cuts after a 9 - month pause. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the domestic central bank has more policy space, but it stated that the next policy adjustment needs to wait for the unified deployment of the central government. Given the continued strength of the equity market, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view on long - term bonds and stay on the sidelines for short - term bonds [3]
20250924申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250925
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No information provided on industry investment ratings Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Night - time copper prices rose 0.06%. Although concentrate supply is tight and smelting profits are under pressure, smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices rose 0.41%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, and smelting profits have turned positive. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - time copper prices rose 0.06%. Concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output has high growth. The power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic installations increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. The price may have short - term range - bound fluctuations [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices rose 0.41%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. The price may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 20,685 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,646 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 0.24 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 513,900 tons with no daily change [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 120,730 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 990 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,340 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 173.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 228,900 tons with an increase of 456 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 17,040 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 120 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 1,999 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 42.13 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 221,675 tons with an increase of 1,375 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 269,880 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,000 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 34,270 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 98.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,580 tons with an increase of 75 tons [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:国债-20250925
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - On September 24, treasury bond futures prices generally declined, with the T2512 contract down 0.24% and a decrease in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally rose, and key - term treasury bond yields showed mixed trends. The long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 41.3bp. Overseas, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 4bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield fell 1.4bp. The central bank's monetary policy showed a moderately loose orientation, with a net MLF injection of 3000 billion yuan in September. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the central bank's policy space has increased, but the next policy adjustment needs central unified deployment. It is recommended to remain bearish on the long - end and stay on the sidelines for the short - end [2][3] Summary by Relevant Content Treasury Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On September 24, prices of various treasury bond futures contracts generally fell, such as the TS2512 contract down 0.05%, the TF2512 contract down 0.14%, and the T2512 contract down 0.24%. Open interest of most contracts decreased, except for some with an increase. Trading volume varied among contracts [2] - **IRR and Arbitrage**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - Rates of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR7 days, DR001, DR007, GC001, GC007, FR001, and FR007 generally rose on September 24. For example, SHIBOR7 days rose 12.8bp, DR007 rose 18.48bp, and GC007 rose 14.2bp [2] Spot Market - Chinese Treasury Bonds - **Yield Changes**: Yields of key - term treasury bonds showed mixed trends on September 24. The 10Y treasury bond yield rose 1.98bp to 1.9%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 41.3bp [2] Overseas Market - Treasury Bonds - **Yield Changes**: On September 24, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 4bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield fell 1.4bp [2] Macro News - **Monetary Policy**: On September 24, the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan. It also announced a 6000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on September 25, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan in September, continuing the moderately loose monetary policy [3] - **Trade Policy**: China stated at the WTO that it would not seek new special and differential treatment, while emphasizing its status as the largest developing country. The US and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, with certain EU products on the tariff - exemption list [3] - **Financial Policy**: Commercial banks can use certain bonds as collateral for treasury cash time deposits, with specific collateral requirements [3] - **US Fiscal Policy**: The US Treasury Secretary criticized the Fed Chairman and urged a 100 - 150 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the end of the year. The Treasury is considering a 20 - billion - dollar currency swap with Argentina [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On September 24, most money - market interest rates rose, and US treasury bond yields collectively increased [3] Comment and Strategy - The market situation showed that treasury bond futures prices generally declined, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal, and short - end Shibor rates rose. Although the MLF continued to inject medium - term liquidity, considering factors such as economic data and the Fed's policy, it is recommended to remain bearish on the long - end and stay on the sidelines for the short - end [3]
首席点评:全球第二大铜矿停产
重点品种:铜、黄金、原油 铜:夜盘铜价收涨 3.31%,印尼 Grasberg 矿难导致供应预期缩减。年初以来精 矿供应延续紧张状态,冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘,但冶炼产量延续高增长。国家统 计局数据显示,电力行业延续正增长,光伏抢装同比陡增,未来增速可能放缓; 汽车产销正增长;家电产量增速趋缓;地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率导致全球 铜供求转向缺口,长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 黄金:金银涨势暂缓,出现一定调整。鲍威尔最近一次讲话中表示,就业下行风 险证明降息是合理的,但通胀仍然有些高企,政策取决于数据,延续了 9 月美联 储会议时的谨慎姿态。美联储金融监理副主席鲍曼周二表示,美联储在支持就业 市场方面可能行动过于缓慢,如果需求状况恶化、企业开始财源,届时可能需要 加快降息的速度。上周,9 月美联储风险管理式降息 25 个基点,符合市场预期。 仅有刚被任命的美联储理事米兰支持降息 50 个基点。在特朗普持续施压的背景 下,美联储的降息姿态仍然较为谨慎,不过降息前景较为明确。市场预期今年剩 余两次会议均将降息。本周接连有几位联储官员讲话释放谨慎态度,但市场情绪 整体并未受其打压。市场预期关税对 ...
20250925申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250925
Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily update on the basis of non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, etc., and offers short - term price trend views and strategies [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Copper may have short - term range - bound fluctuations. The night - session copper price rose 3.31%. The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia led to a reduced supply expectation. The concentrate supply has been tight since the beginning of the year, and the smelting profit is on the verge of profit and loss, but the smelting output has continued to grow. The power industry has positive growth, the PV rush - installation has increased sharply year - on - year, and the future growth rate may slow down. The auto production and sales are growing, the home appliance output growth rate is slowing down, and the real estate is weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, which will support the copper price in the long term [2] - Zinc may have short - term wide - range weak - side fluctuations. The night - session zinc price rose 0.62%. The zinc concentrate processing fee has generally recovered, the smelting profit has turned positive, and the smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. The infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate has a small positive growth, the auto production and sales are growing, the home appliance output growth rate is slowing down, and the real estate is weak. The short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [2] Group 4: Market Data Summary Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 79,970 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 25 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 10,320 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 31.37 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 144,975 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 400 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 20,705 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 0 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,655 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 5.44 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 513,850 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 50 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 21,845 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 105 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,923 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: 59.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 45,775 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 1,050 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 121,250 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 1,250 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 15,435 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 178.85 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 230,454 tons, LME inventory daily change: 1,554 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 17,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 115 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,003 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 40.08 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 219,975 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 1,700 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 271,650 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 960 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 34,315 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 105.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 2,575 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 5 tons [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250925
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Protein Meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal rebounded. Argentina temporarily取消 export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat, increasing global soybean market pressure. With ongoing US soybean harvest and unclear export prospects, domestic supply increase expectations and lower import costs may lead to short - term low - level oscillations of domestic soybean meal futures [2]. - Oils and Fats: Night trading of oils and fats was strong. In Malaysia, concerns about palm oil production due to floods in Sabah have subsided. Both production and exports of Malaysian palm oil decreased in September 1 - 20, 2025. Argentina取消 export taxes on soybean oil and meal, pressuring soybean oil prices and affecting palm oil's cost - effectiveness. This is expected to continue to drag down the performance of oils and fats in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8100, 9126, and 9921 respectively, with changes of 14, 72, and - 75, and percentage changes of 0.17%, 0.80%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 2930, 2457, and 8844, with changes of 2, - 35, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.07%, - 1.40%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc., showed different changes compared to the previous values. For example, Y9 - 1 changed from - 296 to - 320 [1]. International Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4299 (ringgit/ton), 1009 (cents/bushel), 50 (cents/pound), and 276 (dollars/ton), with changes of - 84, - 4, - 0, and - 1, and percentage changes of - 1.92%, - 0.40%, - 0.14%, and - 0.40% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and fats and meals in different regions showed different percentage changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.85%, while the spot price of Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil decreased by 0.59% [1]. - **Spot Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads also changed. For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 210, and the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 590 to - 560 [1]. Import and Crushing Profits - Import and crushing profits for different products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, etc., changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import and crushing profit of Malaysian palm oil changed from - 656 to - 417 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, etc., showed some changes. For example, the warehouse receipts of palm oil decreased from 1570 to 1500 [1]. Industry Information - Indonesia's palm oil exports in July 2025 were 354 tons, production was 511 tons, and inventory was 257 tons, slightly increasing from the previous month [2]. - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) lowered the September soybean export forecast from 753 tons to 715 tons and increased the September corn export forecast from 712 tons to 761 tons [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250925
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward trend of gold and silver has paused, showing some adjustments. The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts remains cautious, but the prospect of rate cuts is clear. The market expects rate cuts in the remaining two meetings this year. The long - term driver for gold is still clear due to factors such as the US fiscal deficit and central banks' gold purchases. However, there is a short - term adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: For沪金2510, the current price is 850.12, down 5.92 (-0.69%) from the previous close. The持仓量 is 60076, and the成交量 is 75472. For沪金2512, the current price is 853.06, down 6.94 (-0.81%), with a持仓量 of 274765 and a成交量 of 285621 [2]. - **Silver Futures**: For沪银2510, the current price is 10305.00, down 49.00 (-0.47%), with a持仓量 of 109776 and a成交量 of 175883. For沪银2512, the current price is 10349.00, down 48.00 (-0.46%), with a持仓量 of 516112 and a成交量 of 753535 [2]. Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: The Shanghai gold T + D previous closing price was 856.27, up 6.69 (0.79%). The London gold price was 856.56, down 3.86 (-0.45%), and in dollars per ounce, it was 3735.805, down 27.18 (-0.72%) [2]. - **Silver Spot**: The Shanghai silver T + D previous closing price was 10349.00, up 74.00 (0.72%). The London silver price was 43.89, down 0.13 (-0.29%) [2]. Inventory - **Gold Inventory**: The上期所黄金库存 increased by 1530.00 kg to 60543 kg, and the COMEX黄金库存 increased by 62032.18 to 39807223 [2]. - **Silver Inventory**: The上期所白银 inventory increased by 12756.00 kg to 1161799 kg, and the COMEX白银 inventory increased by 406878 to 527155089 [2]. Related Data - The dollar index increased by 0.65% to 97.8657, the standard -普尔指数 decreased by 0.28% to 6637.97, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.97% to 4.16, the Brent crude oil price increased by 0.01% to 68.26, and the US dollar to RMB exchange rate increased by 0.34% to 7.1379 [2]. Derivatives - The spdr黄金ETF持仓 increased by 1.00 tons to 44315 tons, the SLV白银ETF持仓 increased by 1.00 tons to 44315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net position in silver increased by 481 to 33486, and in gold decreased by 1451 to 32895 [2]. Macro News - The US and the EU have finalized a tariff agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts from August 1st, and some EU products are on the tariff - exemption list from September 1st [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent criticized Fed Chairman Powell for not having a clear agenda for rate cuts and urged a 100 - 150 basis - point rate cut by the end of the year. The US Treasury is considering a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina [2]. - In August, the annualized number of new home sales in the US was 800,000, far exceeding the expected 650,000, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%. The inventory of new homes for sale dropped to 490,000, the lowest level this year [3].
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250925
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polyolefins rebounded slightly. The prices of polyolefins have been fluctuating passively following the cost - end recently. In the medium term, the market focuses on actual demand fulfillment and pre - holiday terminal stocking, as well as potential policy changes in the overall supply side in the fourth quarter in China. The future trend of polyolefins is driven by the interaction of cost and supply - demand, and they may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7142, 7182, and 7218 respectively, with increases of 37, 37, and 25, and涨幅 of 0.52%, 0.52%, and 0.35% respectively. The trading volumes were 191081, 13544, and 86, and the open interests were 571775, 44991, and 165, with changes of - 17901, 2245, and - 1 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 40, - 36, and 76 respectively [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6877, 6920, and 6910 respectively, with increases of 35, 29, and 22, and涨幅 of 0.51%, 0.42%, and 0.32% respectively. The trading volumes were 178124, 12681, and 199, and the open interests were 636504, 76469, and 1742, with changes of - 15873, 799, and 117 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 43, 10, and 33 respectively [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch films were 2353 yuan/ton, 6485 yuan/ton, 594 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6710 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Spot Market - LL**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Spot Market - PP**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6850 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Other Information - On Wednesday (September 24), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.99 per barrel, up $1.58 or 2.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.25 - $65.05. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $69.31 per barrel, up $1.68 or 2.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.51 - $69.37 [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:原油甲醇-20250923
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The night - session oil prices continued to decline. Iraq has preliminarily approved a plan to resume oil exports from its semi - autonomous Kurdistan region through the Turkish pipeline, potentially increasing the daily crude oil supply by at least 230,000 barrels. In September, drone attacks in Ukraine disrupted Russian crude oil exports, increasing the risk of production cuts, and there are expectations of more sanctions on a certain European country. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase. [3] - Methanol prices fell 0.17% in the night - session. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.63%, up 6.21 percentage points month - on - month. As of September 18, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 72.66%, down 0.09 percentage points month - on - month and 0.61 percentage points year - on - year. The overall coastal methanol inventory increased steadily. As of September 18, the coastal methanol inventory was 1.5428 million tons (at a record high), up 34,800 tons from September 11, a 2.31% increase, and 40.77% higher year - on - year. The estimated available methanol supply in the coastal area was around 842,000 tons. The estimated arrival volume of imported methanol ships from September 19 to October 5 is between 734,200 and 740,000 tons. Methanol is expected to be bearish in the short term. [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Market - **Price Changes**: SC near - month futures price decreased by 4.2 yuan to 485.8 yuan, a decline of 0.86%; SC次月 futures price decreased by 4.0 yuan to 483.0 yuan, a decline of 0.82%. WTI near - month futures price decreased by 0.08 dollars to 62.64 dollars, a decline of 0.13%; WTI次月 futures price decreased by 0.02 dollars to 62.34 dollars, a decline of 0.03%. Brent near - month futures price decreased by 0.86 dollars to 66.66 dollars, a decline of 1.27%; Brent次月 futures price decreased by 0.92 dollars to 66.05 dollars, a decline of 1.37%. [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SC near - month was 2,249, and the open interest was 4,241 with a decrease of 836. The trading volume of SC次月 was 96,133, and the open interest was 35,314 with an increase of 1,533. For WTI and Brent, details of trading volume, open interest and their changes are also provided. [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current spread between SC near - month and SC次月 is 2.8 yuan, etc. There are also details about other price spreads. [2] Spot Market - **International Market**: International crude oil spot prices decreased. For example, the OPEC basket price decreased from 70.73 dollars to 69.78 dollars, and the Brent DTD price decreased from 67.80 dollars to 67.15 dollars. [2] - **Domestic Market**: Domestic crude oil and refined product prices also decreased. For example, the price of Daqing crude oil decreased from 65.46 dollars to 64.74 dollars, and the Chinese gasoline wholesale price index decreased from 7,865 yuan/ton to 7,860 yuan/ton. [2]
20250923申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250923
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Night - time copper prices closed 0.07% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices closed 0.25% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue rising. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards oversupply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Night - time copper prices closed 0.07% lower. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output shows high growth. The power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic installation is surging but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. Copper prices may range - bound, and factors like the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be monitored [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed 0.25% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory is increasing weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. Zinc prices may have wide - range weak fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 80,190 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 45 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 10,002 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 72.44 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 147,650 tons with a daily change of - 1,225 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,750 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,655 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 4.14 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 513,900 tons with no daily change [2]. - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,080 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 85 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,900 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 45.99 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 47,825 tons with a daily change of - 1,000 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 121,400 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 1,260 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 15,200 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 177.45 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 228,444 tons with a daily change of - 6 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,125 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,000 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 45.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 220,300 tons with a daily change of - 2,375 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 272,510 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 3,280 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 34,020 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 115.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,505 tons with a daily change of - 140 tons [2].