Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo

Search documents
申银万国期货首席点评:美国6月ADP就业人数减少
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 08:19
报告日期:2025 年 7 月 3 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评:美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数减少 美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数意外减少 3.3 万人,自 2023 年 3 月以来首次负增长,预 期为增长 9.8 万人,5 月份数据在向下修正后仅增加 2.9 万人。服务业就业在 6 月份减少 6.6 万个就业岗位,遭遇自疫情以来的最大降幅。美国利率期货完全 消化美联储 9 月降息预期。证监会党委召开扩大会议强调,要持续优化股债融 资、并购重组等资本市场机制安排,促进要素向最有潜力的领域高效集聚。牢 记我国资本市场中小投资者众多的最大市情,不断完善投资者保护制度体系。 深入推进以"两创板"改革为抓手的新一轮全面深化资本市场改革。全力抓好 资本市场自主开放重点举措落地。始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首要任 务,推动健全常态化稳市机制安排,平稳有序防控债券违约、私募基金等领域 风险。央行近日发文明确,客户单笔或者日累计金额人民币 10 万元以上(含 10 万元)现金交易的,贵金属和宝石交易从业机构应当履行反洗钱义务进行上 报,但刷卡消费不受影响。多位专家对此表示,该消息与百姓日常买金关系不 大。 重点品种: ...
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250703
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 08:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of gold and silver rebounded. The unexpected decrease in the US ADP employment in June intensified the market's expectation of an early interest rate cut by the Fed this year. The approaching deadline for the suspension of reciprocal tariffs made the market uneasy, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill raised the expectation of fiscal deficit, leading to a weak US dollar. Although Fed officials continued to maintain a wait - and - see attitude and mentioned the possibility of a rate cut as early as July with pre - conditions, the progress of trade negotiations was limited. The market might be paving the way for future easing, and if tariff policies became clear, the expectation of rate cut would be further clarified. Gold faced hesitation in upward movement due to its high price, and investors should be vigilant about the uncertainty of Trump's policies and the hype of tariff escalation as the July tariff suspension deadline approached [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were 775.90, 780.04, 8830.00, and 8872.00 respectively, with daily increases of 2.16 (0.28%), 2.04 (0.26%), 83.00 (0.95%), and 87.00 (0.99%) [2]. - **Position and Volume**: The positions of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were 103401, 83453, 249023, and 174093 respectively, and the trading volumes were 73175, 21045, 323881, and 34757 respectively [2]. - **Spot Premium**: The spot premiums of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were - 5.57, - 9.71, - 93.00, and - 135.00 respectively [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and London Gold (in USD/oz) were 770.33, 773.00, and 3356.93 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.71 (- 0.22%), 4.21 (0.55%), and 19.6 (0.59%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 8737.00, with a daily change of - 68.00 (- 0.77%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in USD/oz) was 36.55, with a daily change of 0.53 (1.48%) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver were 4.14, 42, 88.17, 7.14, and 7.44 respectively, compared with previous values of 4.26, 38, 87.68, 7.20, and 7.60 [2]. Inventory - The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were 18,456 kg, 1,338,659 kg, 37,048,200 units, and 500,183,447 units respectively, with changes of 3.00 kg, - 185.00 kg, no change, and - 1026742 units compared to the previous values [2]. Related Markets - **Indices and Rates**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and USD/CNY were 96.7788, 6227.42, 4.3, 69.15, and 7.1617 respectively, with daily changes of 0.14%, 0.47%, 0.94%, 0.01%, and 0.00% [2]. - **Derivatives**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF, SLV Silver ETF, CFTC speculators' net position in silver, and CFTC speculators' net position in gold were 44315 tons, 44315 tons, 33486 units, and 32895 units respectively, with daily changes of 1.00 ton, 1.00 ton, 481 units, and - 1451 units [2]. Macro News - The US ADP employment in June unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, far below the expected increase of 98,000. Service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in the Fed's rate - cut expectation in September [3]. - EU Commission President von der Leyen met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Brussels. Wang Yi said that the upcoming China - EU leaders' meeting was an important one at a critical juncture. China hoped to summarize the past 50 - year experience of China - EU relations, plan the future 50 - year cooperation, and send positive signals. China was willing to deepen economic and trade cooperation with the EU [3]. - The US Department of Defense said that the Iranian nuclear facilities were estimated to have been destroyed, and the Iranian nuclear program was postponed by about 1 - 2 years [3]. - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam's exports to the US would be subject to a 20% tariff, and trans - shipped goods would be subject to a 40% tariff. Vietnam agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [3].
申万期货品种策略日报:国债-20250703
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 07:59
2025年07月03日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华(从业资格号:F3010997;交易咨询号:Z0011162) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 前日收盘价 | 102.512 102.488 | 102.642 102.632 | 106.250 106.205 | 106.345 106.295 | 109.130 109.005 | 109.210 109.040 | 121.18 120.74 | 121.04 120.6 | | | 涨跌 | 0.024 | 0.010 | 0.045 | 0.050 | 0.125 | 0.170 | 0.440 | 0.44 ...
申银万国期货首席点评:纵深推进全国统一大市场建设
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 06:15
报告日期:2025 年 7 月 2 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评:纵深推进全国统一大市场建设 美国参议院表决结果通过"大而美"税收与支出法案,法案将送交众议院。美 国总统特朗普表示,有信心税收法案能在众议院获得通过。中央财经委员会召 开第六次会议,研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问 题。会议强调,要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争,规范政府采购和招标投 标、招商引资,着力推动内外贸一体化发展,持续开展规范涉企执法专项行 动,健全有利于市场统一的财税体制、统计核算制度和信用体系。要加强顶层 设计,加大政策支持力度,鼓励引导社会资本积极参与发展海洋经国际贵金属 期货普遍收涨,COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.28%报 3349.90 美元/盎司,COMEX 白银期 货涨 0.20%报 36.25 美元/盎司。特朗普威胁对日本加征关税加剧贸易担忧,美 联储暗示可能降息,加上中东地缘风险持续,共同推动避险资金流入贵金属市 场济。 重点品种:黄金、集运、铜 集运欧线:EC 午后放量拉升,08 合约收于 1904.9 点,上涨 7.8%。最新一期 SCFIS 欧线表现超预期,同时近期其他联盟尚未明显跟降,7 ...
20250702申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250702
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 05:19
(核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号) 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性,对未来预测存在不及预期,以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 | | 20250702申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜: 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌: 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝: 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍: 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜:夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价,考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看,国内下游需求总体稳定向好,电力行业延续正增 | | | 铜 | 长;汽车产销正增长;家电产量增速趋缓;地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织, | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展,以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌:夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看,国 内汽车产销正增长,基建稳定增长,家电产量增速趋缓,地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | | ...
申万期货品种策略日报:国债-20250702
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 03:51
| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华(从业资格号:F3010997;交易咨询号:Z0011162) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 前日收盘价 | 102.488 102.498 | 102.632 102.638 | 106.205 106.160 | 106.295 106.255 | 109.005 108.895 | 109.040 108.930 | 120.74 120.42 | 120.6 120.29 | | | 涨跌 | -0.010 | -0.006 | 0.045 | 0.040 | 0.110 | 0.110 | 0.320 | 0.310 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.01% | ...
申银万国期货早间策略-20250702
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 03:51
| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/7/2 | 星期三 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷(从业资格号:F3056905;交易咨询号:Z0016232 )jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 (从业资格号:F03111639;交易咨询号:Z0018586)chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 3906.40 | 3893.20 | 3885.80 | 3855.60 | 前日收盘价 | 3911.60 | 3895.00 | 3886.00 | 3850.20 | | | 涨跌 | 3.80 | 0.40 | -1.00 | -6.40 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | 0.10 | ...
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250702
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 03:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of gold and silver rebounded. The approaching tariff suspension deadline and the progress of the "Big and Beautiful" bill have made the market uneasy, leading to a weakening of the US dollar. Recent statements from Fed officials suggest a continued wait - and - see stance, with some indicating a possible rate cut as early as July under conditions such as lower inflation and clearer trade policies. The "Big and Beautiful" bill raises expectations of fiscal deficits. US data shows that the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, but trade negotiations have limited progress. As the policy framework is modified, the market may pave the way for future easing. Once the tariff policy becomes clear, the expectation of rate cuts will be further clarified. Gold has long - term drivers but shows hesitation in rising due to high prices. With the approaching July tariff suspension deadline, be vigilant about the uncertainty of Trump's policies and potential hype about tariff resurgence [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 774.50 and 779.08 respectively, with increases of 0.60 (0.08%) and 1.18 (0.15%). The current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 8763.00 and 8805.00 respectively, with decreases of 47.00 ( - 0.53%) and 45.00 ( - 0.51%) [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of沪金2508 and沪金2512 is 110096 and 81240 respectively, and the trading volume is 83291 and 18408 respectively. The open interest of沪银2508 and沪银2512 is 264724 and 174356 respectively, and the trading volume is 342536 and 40561 respectively [2] - **Spot Premium/Discount**: The spot premium/discount of沪金2508 and沪金2512 is - 2.46 and - 7.04 respectively, and that of沪银2508 and沪银2512 is 42.00 and 0.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 772.04 and 768.79 respectively, with increases of 7.89 (1.03%) and 8.25 (1.08%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 8805.00, with an increase of 77.00 (0.88%), and the price of London Silver was 36.01, with a decrease of 0.08 ( - 0.21%) [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 4.58, 42, 87.68, 7.20, and 7.60 respectively [2] Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The current values of上期所黄金库存,上期所白银库存, COMEX黄金库存, and COMEX白银库存 are 18,453 kg, 1,338,844 kg, 37,048,200 ounces, and 501,210,189 ounces respectively. Compared with the previous values,上期所黄金库存 increased by 216.00 kg,上期所白银库存 increased by 39,088.00 kg, and COMEX白银库存 increased by 1,515,437 ounces [2] Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, Standard & Poor's index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate are 96.6451, 6198.01, 4.26%, 67.28, and 7.1614 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the US dollar index decreased by 0.13%, the Standard & Poor's index decreased by 0.11%, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.47%, the Brent crude oil price increased by 0.01%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased by 0.05% [2] Derivatives - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF are 44315 tons, both increasing by 1.00 ton compared with the previous values. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with an increase of 481 in silver and a decrease of 1451 in gold compared with the previous values [2] News and Events - **US Politics and Policies**: The US Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will be sent to the House of Representatives. Trump is confident that the tax bill will pass in the House. Trump said he will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline, may not reach an agreement with Japan by then, and Japan may face 30% or 35% tariffs. There are two or three candidates for the Fed chair [3] - **Central Bank Statements**: Fed Chair Powell said that without Trump's tariff policies, the Fed would adopt looser monetary policies. He did not rule out a rate cut in July, which depends on data, and most Fed members expect a rate cut later this year. ECB President Lagarde said the eurozone's June inflation reached the 2% target, the rate - cut cycle is approaching the end, and future policies will depend on data [3] - **Trade Negotiations**: The EU and the US are in the final stage of trade agreement negotiations. The EU has agreed in principle to a 10% general tariff proposed by the US but requires the US to make equivalent concessions in four key areas. The White House economic advisor is optimistic about reaching an agreement with the EU [3] - **US Economic Data**: The US June ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49, higher than the expected 48.8 but still in the contraction range for four consecutive months. New orders decreased for five consecutive months, and the price - paid index was close to the highest level since June 2022, indicating a slight acceleration of inflation. US job openings in May increased from 7.4 million in April to 7.769 million, far exceeding the expected 7.3 million, and the number of layoffs decreased [4]
20250701申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250701
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 07:22
| | 20250701申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜: 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌: 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝: 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍: 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜:夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价,考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看,国内下游需求总体稳定向好,电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 长;汽车产销正增长;家电产量增速趋缓;地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织, | 间波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展,以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌:夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看,国 内汽车产销正增长,基建稳定增长,家电产量增速趋缓,地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善,冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动,关注美国关税进展,以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | ...
申万期货品种策略日报:国债-20250701
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 03:52
| | 1、央行公告称,6月30日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3315亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40%,投标量3315 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元,中标量3315亿元。Wind数据显示,当日2205亿元逆回购到期,据此计算,单日净投放1110亿元。 | | | 2、央行年中精准调控,资金面有望平稳跨季。近段时间以来,央行精准调控护航年中资金面。在5月降准释放长期流 | | | 动性10000亿元的基础上,6月以来,央行多次开展买断式逆回购净投放,以及加量续做MLF,为市场注入充裕的流动 | | | 性。展望7月跨月及半年度资金面,市场既抱有谨慎乐观态度,也存在一定担忧,主要在于财政因素对于资金面可能 | | | 会形成较大的干扰。 | | | 3、国家统计局公布,6月份,我国制造业、非制造业和综合PMI分别为49.7%、50.5%和50.7%,比上月上升0.2、0.2和 | | | 0.3个百分点,三大指数均有所回升。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI均连续两个月位于扩张区间。 | | 宏观 | 4、财政部、国家税务总局、商务部发布公告,明确在2025年1月1日至2028年 ...