Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot freight rate for the European container shipping line will continue to decline before the Spring Festival. The average price of 40 - foot containers in the third week of February will drop to around $2080, and there is still a discount of about 200 points in the market. The real - level game space is relatively small, and the game is more concentrated on the expected level. The market is highly correlated with the commodity market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the intraday impact of commodity sentiment on EC. The main event at the expected level is the rush to export products such as photovoltaic before April 1st, which may bring about 2 container ships with a capacity of 18,000 - 23,000 TEU. It is difficult to cause a full - load situation in the off - season after the festival, but it may lead to an increase in the list price of shipping companies, the stabilization and even a slight increase in freight rates, bringing real - level drivers to the market. Attention should be paid to the possible falsification of expectations caused by the subsequent release of shipping companies' price increase letters [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Change) | Open Interest (Change) | Long Position (Top 20 Members) | Short Position (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Position (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1743 | 0.39 | 280 (183) | 1602 (-224) | 1256 | 1424 | -168 | | EC2604 | 1268.2 | 3.86 | 43994 (19795) | 34661 (1900) | 19719 | 23054 | -3335 | | EC2606 | 1568.2 | 3.56 | 5866 (2496) | 14888 (666) | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2608 | 1630.5 | 3.05 | 588 (192) | 1440 (-54) | | | | | EC2610 | 1131.8 | 0.60 | 1760 (-203) | 8150 (-35) | | | | | EC2612 | 1420.2 | 0.34 | 14 (-30) | 137 (-2) | | | | | Total | - | - | 52502 | 60878 | 20975 | 24478 | -3503 | [2] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | Increase/Decrease Rate | Previous Period | Increase/Decrease Rate | Two Periods Ago | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1792.14 | -3.6% | 1859.31 | -4.9% | 1954.19 | -0.1% | | SCFI - $/TEU | | 1418 | -4.8% | 1595 | -2.5% | 1676 | 1.7% | | Spot Freight Rate | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1551 | 0.0% | 1551 | -3.3% | 1604 | -3.3% | | (Daily) $/FEU | TCI(40GP) | 2636 | 0.0% | 2636 | -3.3% | 2725 | -2.4% | [4] Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was 523.94 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was 544.54 points, with a change of - 20.6 points [6]

本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 20260206申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨0.15%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。铜价短期可能进入调整阶段。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和 | | | 下游需求等变化。 | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨0.84%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 | | 锌 | 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电排 产负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌价可能跟随有色整体走势。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游 | | | 需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合 ...

免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨 投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信息 不得用于未经允许的其他任何用途 如因投资者将本报告所提供的信息、 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant investment rating information provided in the reports [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market since 2026 is due to factors such as the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. In February, the market is expected to continue its phased positive trend, benefiting from the “Spring Market” window period, the release of policy dividends at the beginning of the “15th Five - Year Plan”, clear profit expectations for AI and overseas - expansion themes, seasonal recovery of the consumer end, and the implementation of investment projects. However, potential disturbances from overseas capital market fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday, especially geopolitical risks, need to be watched out for [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices were 4671.60, 4665.20, 4636.00, and 4585.20 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. There were declines in price, with the largest decline of - 0.40 in the next - quarter contract. The trading volume was highest in the next - month contract (70168.00). Some contracts saw an increase in open interest, while the current - month contract decreased by 387.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices showed a decline. The largest decline in percentage was - 0.14 in the next - month contract. The trading volume was highest in the next - month contract (36122.00). All contracts had an increase in open interest, with the largest increase in the next - month contract (1146.00) [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices decreased significantly. The largest decline in percentage was - 1.96 in the contract for the quarter after next. The trading volume was highest in the next - month contract (112281.00). All contracts had an increase in open interest, with the largest increase in the next - month contract (4345.00) [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices decreased. The largest decline in percentage was - 1.67 in the contract for the quarter after next. The trading volume was highest in the next - month contract (142554.00). Some contracts had a decrease in open interest, such as the current - month contract which decreased by 3835.00 [1] - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The current inter - monthly spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 6.40, - 2.20, - 24.80, and - 38.00 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous day's index was 4698.68, with a trading volume of 264.88 billion lots and a total trading value of 6360.19 billion yuan, showing a 0.83% increase [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous day's index was 3069.24, with a trading volume of 61.04 billion lots and a total trading value of 1698.82 billion yuan, showing a 1.14% increase [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous day's index was 8068.08, with a trading volume of 275.82 billion lots and a total trading value of 4409.65 billion yuan, showing a - 1.69% decrease [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous day's index was 2520.32, with a trading volume of 4621.33 billion lots and a total trading value of 2642.27 billion yuan, showing a - 1.55% decrease [1] - **CSI 300 Industry Index**: Different industries had different performance. The main consumer, pharmaceutical and healthcare, and real estate and finance industries had positive growth rates of 2.73%, 1.19%, and 1.46% respectively, while the information technology industry had a - 1.89% decline [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - **IF Contracts**: The basis between the current - month, next - month, and next - quarter IF contracts and the CSI 300 index was 0.12, - 5.08, and - 33.68 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The basis between the IC contracts and the CSI 500 index showed significant negative values [1] - **IM Contracts**: The basis between the IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index also showed certain negative values [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and other domestic indexes showed different trends. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a 0.14% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index had a - 0.88% decrease [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The DAX index was 24373.06, with no information on its change compared to the previous period provided [1] 3.5 Macro Information - **Policy**: The Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Taxation Administration jointly announced tax exemptions for inbound goods purchased by Hainan Free Trade Port residents within the duty - free quota and product list, with an annual quota of 10,000 yuan per person and no limit on purchase frequency [2] - **Technology**: OpenAI launched GPT - 5.3 - Codex and a new enterprise - level platform Frontier, competing with Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 [2] - **Consumption and Trade**: The 2026 National Service Consumption and Service Trade Conference emphasized the shift from goods - consumption - led to service - consumption - led, and encouraged the cultivation of new service - consumption growth points and service exports. In 2025, China's service trade imports and exports reached 80823.1 billion yuan, a 7.4% increase year - on - year, with a reduction in the service trade deficit of 3439.5 billion yuan. Travel service imports and exports reached 22067 billion yuan, a 7.6% increase [2] - **International Relations**: The US established a critical minerals trade mechanism, with South Korea as the chair until June. China's Foreign Ministry opposed any country using “small - circle” rules to disrupt international economic and trade order [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicted that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 would fall to 180GW - 240GW, and the average annual new installed capacity during the “15th Five - Year Plan” would be 238GW - 287GW. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized addressing the industry's involution [2] - **Memory Industry**: The global HBM shortage has spread from data centers to the consumer electronics sector, especially affecting the smartphone industry. Qualcomm and Arm warned that the shortage would limit phone production, and some manufacturers planned to cut production and lower shipment targets [2] - **Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry**: Eight departments jointly issued a plan for the high - quality development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, aiming to achieve certain goals by 2030, such as cultivating 60 high - standard raw material production bases [2] - **Internet Industry**: As of the end of 2025, China's netizen population reached 1.125 billion, with an Internet penetration rate exceeding 80%. The number of generative AI users reached 602 million, a 141.7% increase year - on - year, and the penetration rate was 42.8% [2]

2026年02月06日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 540.30 | 536.90 | 531.40 | 442.70 | 435.65 | 424.30 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 599.85 | 592.00 | 585.70 | 461.00 | 456.75 | 450.60 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -46.75 | -39.10 | -42.70 | -8.90 | -11.00 | -18.05 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | -7.96% | -6.79% | -7.44% | -1.97% | -2.46% | -4.08% ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.434 | 102.460 | 105.910 | 105.940 | 108.320 | 108.325 | 112.17 | 112.31 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.398 | 102.424 | 105.850 | 105.895 | 108.240 | 108.240 | 111.7 | 111.78 | | | 涨跌 | 0.036 | 0.036 | 0.060 | 0.045 | 0.080 | 0.085 | 0.470 | 0.530 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.04% | 0.0 ...

20260206申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | IL | | | | | 18 | | | | 1月 5月 9月 | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1414.0 | 1172.0 | 1248.0 | 1888. 0 | 1738.0 | 1804. 0 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1445.0 | 1209. 0 | 1281.5 | 1913.0 | 1770.0 | 1831.5 | | Ele | 楽時 | -31.0 | -37.0 | -33.5 | -25.0 | -32.0 | -27.5 | | 黑 | 准跌幅 | -2. 15% | -3.06% | -2. 61% | -1. 31% | -1.81% | -1 ...

1.据阿联酋《国家报》：在美伊准备进行外交谈判之际，白宫正秘密征询具有影响力的伊朗裔美国 人士的意见，为伊朗现政权潜在的倒台制定局势过渡计划。 2.据中国黄金协会最新统计数据显示：2025 年，我国黄金消费量 950.096 吨，同比下降 3.57%。其 中：黄金首饰 363.836 吨，同比下降 31.61%；金条及金币 504.238 吨，同比增长 35.14%；工业及 其他用金 82.022 吨，同比增长 2.32%。2025 年，国内黄金 ETF 全年增仓量为 133.118 吨，较 2024 年全年增仓量 53.266 吨增长 149.91%。至 12 月底，国内黄金 ETF 持仓量为 247.852 吨。 3.摩根大通预计，今年央行黄金净买入量将达到 800 吨，仍比 2022 年之前的水平高出 70%。今年来 自各国央行和投资者的需求足以在 2026 年底将金价最终推高至每盎司 6300 美元。 宏 4.芝加哥商品交易所（CME）当地时间 2 月 5 日发布通知，对部分黄金、白银和铝等期货合约的保 证金（Outright Rates）进行调整。文件显示，黄金的新保证金比例上调至 9%的水平，白银 ...

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2026/2/6 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8104 | 9042 | 9144 | 2731 | 2333 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -36 | -96 | -99 | 8 | -16 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.44% | -1.05% | -3.15% | 0.29% | -0.68% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | ...