1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current market as a whole shows signs of breaking through the previous range and starting to move upwards. For futures trading, a long - biased strategy is recommended for stock index futures, and buying options is suggested for stock index options. In the long - term, A - shares are considered to have high investment value, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having more growth potential due to science and innovation policies, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 are more defensive in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3906.40, 3893.20, 3885.80, and 3855.60 respectively, with price increases of 10.80, 8.80, 7.60, and 6.60 and increases of 0.28%, 0.23%, 0.20%, and 0.17%. The trading volumes were 30836.00, 2035.00, 40077.00, and 6044.00, and the open interests were 65471.00, 3682.00, 135428.00, and 40026.00, with decreases of 4640.00, 344.00, 3939.00, and 618.00 respectively [1] - **IH Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 2693.00, 2689.00, 2689.00, and 2690.00 respectively, with price increases of 8.80, 7.60, 7.20, and 7.00 and increases of 0.33%, 0.28%, 0.27%, and 0.26%. The trading volumes were 14261.00, 855.00, 22994.00, and 2568.00, and the open interests were 26401.00, 1756.00, 49133.00, and 8551.00, with decreases of 4124.00, 235.00, 3937.00, and 298.00 respectively [1] - **IC Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 5863.00, 5818.80, 5768.80, and 5650.00 respectively, with price increases of 33.20, 25.80, 20.40, and 15.00 and increases of 0.57%, 0.45%, 0.35%, and 0.27%. The trading volumes were 32984.00, 3036.00, 27514.00, and 7769.00, and the open interests were 73467.00, 4820.00, 91475.00, and 51599.00, with changes of - 4070.00, 17.00, - 3076.00, and - 649.00 respectively [1] - **IM Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 6283.00, 6220.60, 6148.60, and 5973.20 respectively, with price increases of 48.40, 42.40, 29.80, and 20.60 and increases of 0.78%, 0.69%, 0.49%, and 0.35%. The trading volumes were 53137.00, 4220.00, 94541.00, and 20114.00, and the open interests were 82875.00, 7270.00, 158728.00, and 68772.00, with changes of - 9504.00, 449.00, - 9029.00, and - 1081.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 13.20, - 4.00, - 44.20, and - 62.40 respectively, compared to previous values of - 9.60, - 4.40, - 37.20, and - 56.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the index was 3936.08, with a trading volume of 145.17 billion lots and a total trading value of 2888.21 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 3921.76, with a trading volume of 194.56 billion lots and a total trading value of 3434.68 billion yuan. The increase was 0.37% [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the index was 2711.99, with a trading volume of 38.31 billion lots and a total trading value of 764.64 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 2707.57, with a trading volume of 57.08 billion lots and a total trading value of 957.14 billion yuan. The increase was 0.16% [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the index was 5915.39, with a trading volume of 166.28 billion lots and a total trading value of 2265.17 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 5863.73, with a trading volume of 199.39 billion lots and a total trading value of 2433.03 billion yuan. The increase was 0.88% [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the index was 6356.18, with a trading volume of 237.32 billion lots and a total trading value of 3362.21 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 6276.94, with a trading volume of 248.56 billion lots and a total trading value of 3304.55 billion yuan. The increase was 1.26% [1] - **CSI 300 Industry Index**: Different industries had different performance. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors had increases of 0.11%, 0.02%, 0.99%, and - 0.01% respectively; the main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had increases of 0.29%, 0.87%, - 0.44%, and 1.06% respectively; the telecommunications and public utilities sectors had increases of 1.95% and 0.01% respectively [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - **IF Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index were - 29.68, - 42.88, - 50.28, and - 80.48 respectively, compared to values of - 29.76, - 39.36, - 45.16, and - 75.36 two days ago [1] - **IH Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the SSE 50 index were - 18.99, - 22.99, - 22.99, and - 21.99 respectively, compared to values of - 23.17, - 27.57, - 27.57, and - 25.77 two days ago [1] - **IC Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 500 index were - 52.39, - 96.59, - 146.59, and - 265.39 respectively, compared to values of - 36.73, - 73.93, - 118.73, and - 232.13 two days ago [1] - **IM Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 1000 index were - 73.18, - 135.58, - 207.58, and - 382.98 respectively, compared to values of - 46.74, - 102.94, - 166.14, and - 333.94 two days ago [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - cap Board Index, and ChiNext Index had increases of 0.59%, 0.83%, 0.87%, and 1.35% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index had changes of - 0.87%, 0.84%, 0.52%, and - 0.51% respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - In June, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were in the expansion range for two consecutive months [2] - From January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028, overseas investors who use the profits distributed by Chinese domestic resident enterprises for domestic direct investment can, if meeting the conditions, offset 10% of the investment amount against the current year's taxable amount [2] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued the identification criteria for "light - asset, high - R & D investment" on the ChiNext. About 200 listed companies meeting the criteria, mainly in strategic emerging industries such as information technology and biomedicine, are no longer subject to the 30% limit of supplementary working capital for raised funds [2] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued investment quotas of $3.08 billion to some qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII) [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Starting from July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties of 20.2% - 103.1% will continue to be imposed on imported stainless - steel billets and hot - rolled stainless - steel sheets/coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for a period of 5 years [2] - The movie "Ne Zha: Rebirth of the Demon Child" ended with a domestic box office of 154.45 billion yuan and 324 million viewers, and the global box office exceeded 159 billion yuan [2] - From January to June, the total sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises were 1836.41 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.8%, and the decline in June was 18.5% year - on - year, with the decline rate widening [2] - Domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to cut production by 30% starting from July, and it is expected that the domestic supply of photovoltaic glass will decline rapidly [2]

重点品种：集运、股指、纯碱 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 30 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美国通胀可能卷土重来 国际清算银行警告称，由于特朗普的贸易政策暴露了全球经济脆弱性并加剧了经 济不确定性，美国通胀可能卷土重来。该行报告强调了通胀风险，包括贸易动荡 对本已面临挑战的经济体的影响，并建议各国央行专注于核心使命，以维护市场 信任并提升政策有效性。据中国证券报，上周，A 股震荡走高。上证指数创今年 以来新高，深证成指、创业板指本周分别上涨 3.73%、5.69%。展望后市，部分业 内机构认为，上市公司中报季即将来临，预计市场将以结构性机会为主。就后市 投资方向而言，除中报业绩好、确定性强的板块外，安全边际较高的资产、政策 提振下的大消费板块、创新药核心资产等值得关注。 1）国际新闻 集运欧线：EC 震荡，08 合约收于 1805 点，上涨 2.33%。盘后公布的 SCFI 欧线 为 2030 美元/TEU，环比上涨 195 美元/TEU，基本对应于 06.30-07.06 期间的订 舱价，反映 7 月船司的提涨情况但不及预期。近期美西运价的快速见顶和迅速回 落以及马士基在 7 月连续两周的调降令市场 ...

研究局限性和风险提示 | | 20250630申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收平。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产 | | | 铜 | 量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续 正增长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交 | 可能短期区 | | | 织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量 | 间波动 | | | 等因素变化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 弱。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽 | 幅波动 | | | 幅波动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market as a whole shows signs of breaking through the previous oscillation and starting to break upward. It is recommended to be bullish on stock index futures and buy options for stock index options. In the medium - to - long - term, A - shares have a high investment cost - performance ratio. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and innovation policies and may bring higher returns due to their high growth potential, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with declines ranging from - 0.72% to - 0.79%. Volumes were 39,772.00 (current month), 2,237.00 (next month), 56,221.00 (next quarter), and 9,123.00 (inter - quarter). Open interest increased, with increments of 4,653.00, 623.00, 3,684.00, and 1,256.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts decreased, with declines from - 1.12% to - 1.17%. Volumes were 20,919.00 (current month), 1,487.00 (next month), 32,852.00 (next quarter), and 3,919.00 (inter - quarter). Open interest increased, with increments of 2,572.00, 377.00, 4,634.00, and 1,039.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts increased, with increases from 0.23% to 0.27%. Volumes were 36,609.00 (current month), 3,200.00 (next month), 32,557.00 (next quarter), and 10,256.00 (inter - quarter). Open interest increased, with increments of 1,525.00, 922.00, 3,085.00, and 202.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts increased slightly, with increases from 0.02% to 0.20%. Volumes were 55,188.00 (current month), 4,157.00 (next month), 113,010.00 (next quarter), and 21,753.00 (inter - quarter). Open interest changes varied, with a decrease of 663.00 in the current month and increases in other periods [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, with IF next month - IF current month spread increasing from - 12.60 to - 9.60, IH next month - IH current month spread increasing from - 5.20 to - 4.40, IC next month - IC current month spread increasing from - 38.40 to - 37.20, and IM next month - IM current month spread decreasing from - 55.20 to - 56.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by - 0.61%, the SSE 50 index decreased by - 1.13%, the CSI 500 index increased by 0.44%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.47%. The trading volumes and total transaction amounts of these indexes also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries showed different trends. Industries such as raw materials, telecommunications services had positive growth rates, while industries like real estate finance, major consumption had negative growth rates [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, inter - quarter) to the CSI 300 index changed compared to the day before yesterday, with the current month basis changing from - 25.22 to - 29.76, and so on [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by - 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by - 0.48%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by - 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by - 0.66% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by - 0.61%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 1.65%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.80%, and the DAX Index increased by 0.64% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The 2025 Listed Companies Forum was held in Wenzhou from June 28th - 29th, where the four major exchanges (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Hong Kong) released multi - dimensional reform signals. Over 30 A - share companies have submitted H - share listing applications, and over 20 A - share companies have announced H - share listing plans [2] - China decided to conditionally resume the import of aquatic products from some regions in Japan under certain conditions [2] - A more proactive fiscal policy has been implemented this year. In the second half of the year, fiscal policy will focus on the early issuance and use of ultra - long - term special bonds and local government special bonds, and incremental reserve policies may be introduced [2] - The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Li Jiachao, said that Hong Kong should play a connecting role and explore new business opportunities [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on July 1st, and it is predicted that gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 600 yuan/ton [2] - The number of public fund managers reached a new high of 4,041 in the first half of this year, a 19% increase from the beginning of the year. At the same time, 182 fund managers left their positions [2] - Private banks have frequently lowered deposit interest rates this year, but some still maintain relatively high rates, and there is a significant differentiation among them [2] - From January to May this year, domestic passenger ships sent 113 million passengers, an increase of 7.37% year - on - year; international vessels had 179,800 port calls, an increase of 2.45% year - on - year; and the cargo carried by international vessels was 1.987 billion tons, an increase of 1.66% year - on - year [2]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.542 | 102.668 | 106.265 | 106.335 | 109.045 | 109.065 | 120.89 | 120.76 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.510 | 102.642 | 106.170 | 106.240 | 108.950 | 108.980 | 120.72 | 120.56 | | | 涨跌 | 0.032 | 0.026 | 0.095 | 0.095 | 0.095 | 0.085 | 0.170 | 0.200 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefin consumption entered a relative off - season, and spot prices were generally mediocre. The futures price fluctuated more with costs and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict, international oil prices declined, weakening cost support. Future focus should be on the cooling of cost - end raw materials mainly crude oil and the reality of the seasonal demand off - season [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7245, 7220, and 7302 respectively, with changes of - 4, - 14, and 2 and percentage changes of - 0.06%, - 0.19%, and 0.03%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 7041, 7019, and 7103, with changes of - 12, - 11, and - 5 and percentage changes of - 0.17%, - 0.16%, and - 0.07%. The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 36087, 214, and 297767, and the trading volumes of PP were 34283, 90, and 223643. The open interests of LL were 115196, 1241, and 460583, and those of PP were 100898, 1141, and 425262. The changes in open interests of LL were - 2223, 57, and - 10437, and those of PP were 313, 2, and - 4105 [2] - **Spread Information**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 25, - 82, and 57, compared with previous values of 15, - 66, and 51. For PP, the current spreads were 22, - 84, and 62, compared with previous values of 23, - 78, and 55 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2397 yuan/ton, 6700 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2419 yuan/ton, 6740 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Market**: The current spot price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7800 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7350 - 7800 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7500 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the three markets were 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and the previous price ranges were 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (June 27), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.52 per barrel, up $0.28 or 0.43% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.80 - $66.09. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.77 per barrel, up $0.04 or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.20 - $68.42 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices have declined. The Middle - East situation has cooled down with Israel and Iran agreeing to a full - scale cease - fire. Fed Chairman Powell stated that the Fed is in a favorable position and can wait patiently. The June Fed rate meeting kept rates unchanged, and the Fed remains on the sidelines. The "big and beautiful" bill raises deficit concerns, and the impact of US tariff policies shown by recent data is smaller than expected. The market is at a stage of expecting a cooling of tariff conflicts, and although gold has long - term drivers, its upward movement is hesitant at high prices. With the approaching July tariff suspension deadline, be vigilant about hype related to a resurgence of tariffs [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Futures Market - The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2508 and 2512 are 763.58 and 767.78 respectively, with price drops of - 2.82 and - 2.64, and declines of - 0.37% and - 0.34%. The current prices of Shanghai Silver 2508 and 2512 are 8718.00 and 8757.00 respectively, with price drops of - 74.00 and - 75.00, and declines of - 0.84% and - 0.85% [2]. - The trading volumes of Shanghai Gold 2508 and 2512 are 169217 and 25321 respectively, and the trading volumes of Shanghai Silver 2508 and 2512 are 469549 and 42675 respectively [2]. Spot Market - The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D are 763.08, 754.99, and 8748.00 respectively. The price drops are - 10.18, - 11.80, and - 25.00 respectively, and the declines are - 1.32%, - 1.54%, and - 0.28% respectively [2]. - The current values of the spread between Shanghai Gold 2512 and Shanghai Gold 2506, and Shanghai Silver 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2506 are 4.20 and 39 respectively [2]. Inventory - The current values of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver inventories are 18,237 kg and 1,295,663 kg respectively. The current values of COMEX gold and silver inventories are 37,048,335 and 499,090,358 respectively. The increase in the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory is 24,833.00 kg, and the decrease in COMEX silver inventory is 930224 [2]. Related Derivatives and Other Data - The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 97.2612, 6173.07, 4.29, 66.34, and 7.1729 respectively [2]. - The current positions of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons each. The net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively [2]. Macroeconomic News - Trump believes he doesn't need to extend the July 9 deadline for countries to reach agreements to avoid higher tariffs. He also criticizes Fed Chairman Powell for keeping interest rates high [3]. - The US Senate passed a procedural motion to advance the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, increasing the likelihood of its passage in the next few days [3]. - Musk criticizes the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, saying it will destroy millions of US jobs and cause great strategic harm [3]. - The G7 agreed to support a proposal to exempt US companies from some provisions of the 2021 "global minimum tax system" [3].

| | 20250613申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 幅波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产 ...

报告日期：2025 年 6 月 13 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：夜来风雨声，"价"落知多少 中方愿同欧央行在国际货币体系改革等方面加强合作。美国 5 月 PPI 与核心 PPI 均环比温和增长 0.1%、低于预期，核心 PPI 增速创近一年新低，美联储年内两 次降息预期升温。贝森特首次称"7 月 9 日关税大限"可延期。美国宣布 23 日 起对钢制家电加征关税，洗衣机冰箱在列。特朗普推翻加州电动车强制令。以汽 车换农业，美英谈判关键细节马上揭晓。美国上周首次申请失业救济人数略高预 期，续请救济人数飙升至 2021 年底来最高。一架印度航空波音 787-8 客机在印 度机场附近坠毁，从起飞到爆炸不足 1 分钟。 重点品种：股指、油脂、铜 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指小幅波动，资金方面，6 月 11 日融资 余额增加 18.23 亿元至 18066.00 亿元。当前我国主要指数的估值水平仍然处于 较低水平，中长期资金入市配置的性价比仍然较高。6 月 11 日中国商务部表示 中方与美方已经在原则上达成了一个协议框架，利好股指。当前市场整体表现震 荡偏多，股指期权隐含波动率也处于历史较低水平，若有新 ...

报告日期：2025 年 6 月 12 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评："硅锂"有意，"钢矿"无情 中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表：中美原则上达成协议框架。美国 5 月 CPI 同比增 2.4%，核心 CPI 环比增 0.1%、连续第四个月低于预期。美国 5 月 CPI 数据全线 低于预期，能源主导整体 CPI 的放缓，汽车、服装价格均出现下滑，玩具、家电 受关税影响更直接的品类价格上涨。特朗普对伊朗核谈判"信心减弱"，美将减 少驻伊拉克使团规模，布油涨超 5%。特朗普表示，伊朗方面似乎在拖延。他强 调，无论协议是否达成，伊朗都不会拥有核武器。黄仁勋 GTC 大会表示，量子计 算正迎来拐点，计划在欧洲新建 20 家"人工智能工厂"。 重点品种：原油、股指、玻璃 玻璃：玻璃期货窄幅整理。基本面，盘面目前在千元下方逐步止跌。不过，整体 而言市场依然关注宏观托底背景下微观层面供需消化的成效。数据方面，上周玻 璃生产企业库存 6011 万重箱，环比增加 222 万重箱。纯碱期货低位整理。数据 层面，上周纯碱生产企业库存 167.5 万吨，环比增加 0.6 万吨。综合而言，国内， 玻璃纯碱都处于库存承压消化的周期，由于生产 ...