Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fiscal inflection point and pension new policy help the A-share ecosystem enter a new starting point of a "slow bull." Market funds have voted in advance under the policy combination. The central bank has increased support, and multi - ministry "anti - involution" actions are advancing to reshape profit expectations for a long - term bull market [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity in China will continue to be loose, in the policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. External risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September increases, which further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in the resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom" [2][11]. - The unexpected US inflation data last week put pressure on gold and silver, and the positive signals from the US - Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The long - term driving factors of gold still provide support, and gold and silver may show a volatile trend under the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3][20]. - SC crude oil fell 0.87% at night. The situation after the multi - party meeting on the Ukraine issue is under concern, and the subsequent OPEC production increase situation needs attention [4][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chief Comment - On August 19, the Ministry of Finance data showed that the growth rate of the national general public budget revenue in July reached a new high this year, and the cumulative growth rate turned from negative to positive. Five departments such as the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced new pension withdrawal situations and optimized channels. The securities transaction stamp duty in July was 15.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year surge of 125%. The A - share total market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time. The central bank added 100 billion yuan of re - loans for agriculture and small businesses [1]. 2. Key Varieties 2.1 Index Futures - US three major indices mainly declined. The domestic market turnover was 2.64 trillion yuan on the previous trading day. The margin trading balance increased by 39.506 billion yuan on August 18. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][11]. 2.2 Precious Metals - Unexpected US inflation data last week pressured gold and silver. US 7 - month PPI and CPI data had different impacts on the market. Geopolitical risks declined, and the long - term driving factors of gold still support it. Gold and silver may fluctuate under the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3][20]. 2.3 Crude Oil - SC crude oil fell 0.87% at night. The multi - party meeting on the Ukraine issue was held, and India's state - owned refiner continued to buy Russian crude oil. US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels in the week ending August 15, 2025. Follow - up attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][5][14]. 3. Main News Concerns of the Day 3.1 International News - The US Department of Commerce included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate to protect domestic manufacturing and curb import dependence [6]. 3.2 Domestic News - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 2.0273 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative increase in the first 7 months turned positive. The expenditure was 1.60737 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [7]. 3.3 Industry News - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed to standardize the competition order of the photovoltaic industry, strengthen industrial regulation, and curb low - price disorderly competition [8]. 4. Daily Earnings of External Markets - The report provides the daily earnings of various external market varieties on August 18 and 19, 2025, including the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, etc., showing the price changes and percentage changes of each variety [10]. 5. Morning Comments on Main Varieties 5.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The domestic market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom." The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are defensive [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's net investment increased, and the US interest rate cut expectation in September decreased. The bond market may be under pressure, and the cross - variety spread may widen [12][13]. 5.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell at night. Pay attention to the situation after the multi - party meeting on the Ukraine issue and OPEC's production increase [4][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.5% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. It is expected to be bullish in the short term [15]. - **Rubber**: The price support mainly comes from the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the price may fluctuate and decline in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are weak. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to late August [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures fell. The supply is shrinking, but the inventory has rebounded. Pay attention to the inventory digestion speed [18][19]. 5.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are under pressure from US inflation data. Geopolitical risks decline, and they may fluctuate under the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3][20]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee is low, and the downstream demand is mixed. The copper price may fluctuate in a range [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee is rising, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Jiangte Motor plans to resume lithium mine production. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also growing. The lithium price may have callback risks and potential upward space [23][24]. 5.4 Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported, but the global shipment may increase rapidly in the second half of the year. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is emerging, but the inventory is decreasing. The export is still strong, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish [26]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures are weak. The inventory of coking coal has increased, and the market is in a wide - range shock [27]. 5.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures are weak. The USDA report shows a decrease in US soybean production and inventory, and the domestic market is supported by import costs [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures are weak. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil have changed, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short term [29][30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is expected to be weak, while the domestic market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. The domestic sugar price is expected to be volatile [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fell. The domestic cotton supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The Zhengzhou cotton futures may be weak and volatile [32]. 5.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is volatile. The freight rate has decreased, and it is expected to slow down in early September. The market is likely to continue to fluctuate [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The USDA has adjusted the planting area and yield of new - crop soybeans in the United States, leading to a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop soybeans and a significant tightening of the ending stocks. The prices of soybean meal futures are supported by the cost of imports. For palm oil, the increase in production and exports in Malaysia, along with concerns about Indonesia's production and policy, will cause short - term oscillations in the oil market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are provided, along with their price changes, price differences, and price - to - price difference ratios. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 8526, with a price increase of 10 and a price increase rate of 0.12%. The current value of the Y9 - 1 spread was 32, compared to a previous value of 28 [1] - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and price increase rates of international futures such as BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, and others are presented. For instance, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4473, with a price increase of 135 and a price increase rate of 3.11% [1] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current spot prices, price increase rates, spot basis, and spot price differences of domestic products like soybean oil, palm oil, and others are given. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8730, with a price increase rate of 0.00%, and the spot basis is 204 [1] - **Import and Profit**: The current and previous values of import profit for varieties such as Malaysian palm oil, U.S. Gulf soybeans, and others are provided. For example, the current import profit of Malaysian palm oil is - 195, compared to a previous value of - 204 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are presented. For example, the current value of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 15,310, the same as the previous value [1] Industry Information - **Crop Inspection**: ProFarmer's crop inspection estimates that the corn yield per acre in Ohio in 2025 will be 185.69 bushels, and the average number of soybean pods in Ohio will be 1287.28, showing an increase compared to 2024 [2] - **Protein Meal**: The USDA has adjusted the planting area and yield of new - crop soybeans in the United States, resulting in a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop soybeans from 43.35 billion bushels to 42.92 billion bushels. The export estimate of U.S. soybeans has been further reduced to 17.05 billion bushels, and the ending stocks of U.S. soybean futures in the 25/26 season have decreased to 2.9 billion bushels [2] - **Oils**: According to high - frequency data, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 0.88% compared to the same period last month, and the export volume increased by 34.5%. Indonesia's policies and actions have also affected the palm oil market [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are running weakly. The spot market of polyolefins is mainly driven by supply - demand factors. The market heat has cooled down, and the inventory is slowly being digested after the previous rebound. The short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate, and the destocking process in summer is tortuous. However, domestic demand is the main driver at the macro level, and the terminal备货 demand may gradually pick up in the middle and late August. The focus should be on the autumn stocking market rhythm after supply - demand digestion and the potential changes in the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL and PP Futures Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7307, 7291, and 7268 respectively, with changes of - 27, - 21, and - 24 compared to the day before, and percentage changes of - 0.37%, - 0.29%, and - 0.33% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7016, 7032, and 6987 respectively, with changes of - 32, - 16, and - 39 compared to the day before, and percentage changes of - 0.45%, - 0.23%, and - 0.56% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 195031, 3873, and 54494 respectively, and the open interests were 360140, 18851, and 125736 respectively, with changes of 18234, 761, and - 22109 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 198360, 7393, and 50844 respectively, and the open interests were 416594, 28997, and 81393 respectively, with changes of 24874, 1950, and - 18050 respectively [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January are 16, 23, and - 39 respectively, compared to previous values of 22, 20, and - 42. For PP, the current price spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 16, 45, and - 29 respectively, compared to previous values of 0, 22, and - 22 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2395 yuan/ton, 6410 yuan/ton, 560 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2400 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 564 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Intermediate and Final Products**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6950 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, and the previous price ranges were 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7100 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Tuesday (August 19), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.35 per barrel, down $1.07 or 1.69% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.25 - $63.39. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.79 per barrel, down $0.81 or 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.61 - $66.58 [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, with the suspension of Sino - US tariffs extended for another 90 days and an increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, which further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the upward trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are rich in technology - growth components, are more offensive with larger fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are rich in dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts showed an increase, with the highest increase of 1.16% in the IF far - quarter contract. The trading volume of the IF current - month contract was 99,705, and the open interest was 168,841, with an increase of 168,841 in open interest. The spread between the IF next - month and current - month contracts decreased from 4.40 to - 2.40 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts also rose slightly, with the highest increase of 0.31% in the IH current - month contract. The trading volume of the IH current - month contract was 52,884, and the open interest was 74,907, with an increase of 74,907 in open interest. The spread between the IH next - month and current - month contracts decreased from 6.80 to 1.20 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts increased significantly, with the highest increase of 1.54% in the IC next - quarter contract. The trading volume of the IC current - month contract was 83,689, and the open interest was 129,184, with an increase of 129,184 in open interest. The spread between the IC next - month and current - month contracts decreased from - 29.80 to - 31.60 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts had a large increase, with the highest increase of 2.02% in the IM far - quarter contract. The trading volume of the IM current - month contract was 187,694, and the open interest was 220,587, with an increase of 220,587 in open interest. The spread between the IM next - month and current - month contracts decreased from - 18.20 to - 46.40 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.88%, the SSE 50 index increased by 0.21%, the CSI 500 index increased by 1.52%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 1.69%. Among industries, the telecommunications business had the highest increase of 4.78%, while the raw materials industry decreased by 0.02% [1] - **Trading Volume and Turnover**: The total trading volume and turnover of major indexes generally increased compared to the previous two days [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of IF contracts against the CSI 300 index generally decreased compared to the previous two days [1] - The basis of IH contracts against the SSE 50 index generally increased compared to the previous two days [1] - The basis of IC contracts against the CSI 500 index generally decreased compared to the previous two days [1] - The basis of IM contracts against the CSI 1000 index generally decreased compared to the previous two days [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.85%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.73%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 1.44%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.84% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.37%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.77%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.01%, and the DAX index decreased by 0.18% [1] 5. Macro Information - The Chinese government aims to enhance macro - policy implementation efficiency, stimulate consumption, expand effective investment, and stabilize the real estate market [2] - The US and Ukraine have potential military and economic cooperation, with Ukraine planning to purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the US and sign a $50 billion drone cooperation production agreement [2] - China's central bank plans to improve the legal system for movable property financing [2] - China has extended the anti - subsidy investigation on EU dairy products until February 21, 2026 [2] 6. Industry Information - The radio and television administration plans to increase the supply of high - quality audio - visual content [2] - The second - hand housing market in 100 cities is in a state of "trading at lower prices", with the average price in July decreasing by 0.77% month - on - month and 7.32% year - on - year [2] - The new - car business of automobile dealers suffered serious losses in the first half of the year, and the growth expectation for 2025 is less optimistic than at the end of last year [2] - 49 models of 13 automobile manufacturers, including Li Auto, Xiaomi, and XPeng, meet the requirements for automobile data security [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The US stock market had small fluctuations, and the previous trading day's domestic stock index rose, with the communication sector leading the gain and the real estate sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.81 trillion yuan. On August 15, the margin trading balance increased by 7.542 billion yuan to 2.048599 trillion yuan [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the polyolefin (LL&PP) futures and spot markets, providing data on prices, trading volumes, and inventories, along with market analysis and strategies [2]. Group 2: Market Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - Polyolefin futures are running weakly. The spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand. The market heat has cooled down, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It is in a stage of stopping the decline after the previous rebound. The destocking process in summer is tortuous, but the terminal备货 demand may pick up in mid - to late August. The key is to focus on the autumn stocking market rhythm and potential cost changes [2]. Group 4: Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7334, 7312, and 7292 respectively, with declines of - 17, - 34, and - 14 and percentage drops of - 0.23%, - 0.46%, and - 0.19%. For PP, the closing prices were 7048, 7048, and 7026, with declines of - 36, - 32, and - 32 and percentage drops of - 0.51%, - 0.45%, and - 0.45% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 210483, 3872, and 77466. The open interests were 341906, 18090, and 147845, with changes of 23091, 1252, and - 25485. For PP, the trading volumes were 198520, 7133, and 56805. The open interests were 391720, 27047, and 99443, with changes of 28363, 1051, and - 11273 [2]. - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 22, 20, and - 42, compared to previous values of 5, 40, and - 45. For PP, the current spreads were 0, 22, and - 22, compared to previous values of 4, 22, and - 26 [2]. Group 5: Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2400 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes from the previous values [2]. - **Intermediate Products**: For LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton. For PP, the ranges were 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7100 yuan/ton, with some price changes from the previous values [2]. Group 6: News - On August 18, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.42 per barrel, up $0.62 or 0.99% from the previous day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.60 per barrel, up $0.75 or 1.14% from the previous day [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Multiple factors are at play, with low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output, while downstream demand shows a mixed picture. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. Concentrate processing fees are rising, and this year's concentrate supply has improved significantly. Domestic demand is also a mix of positive and negative factors, and the same external factors need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Current concentrate processing fees are generally at a low level, challenging smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power and automobile industries growing, household appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 78,950 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of 170 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,733 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 96.75 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 155,800 tons, with a daily change of - 50 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. This year's concentrate supply has improved significantly, and smelting supply may recover. Zinc prices may have wide - range short - term fluctuations [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,340 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 65 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,777 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 8.65 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 76,325 tons, with a daily change of - 1,125 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,600 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 20 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,589 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 0.05 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 479,550 tons, with a daily change of - 125 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 120,340 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,270 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,151 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 194.65 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 211,662 tons, with a daily change of 522 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,775 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 155 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,971 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 44.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 261,100 tons, with a daily change of - 575 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 267,020 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 420 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,702 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 89.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 1,655 tons, with a daily change of - 175 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On August 18, the central bank conducted 2665 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1545 billion yuan. The central bank's monetary policy implementation report continues the loose monetary policy idea, which has some support for short - term Treasury bond futures prices. However, the seesaw effect between bonds and equity and commodity markets will continue. Bond funds and household and corporate deposits may continue to flow to the non - banking sector with higher returns, suppressing bond market sentiment. Treasury bond futures prices may continue to weaken, and the price differentiation between new and old bonds and between short - and long - term bonds will intensify, and the inter - period and inter - variety spreads may also widen [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2509 contract fell 0.26%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For instance, the open interest of the T2509 contract increased, while that of the T2512 contract decreased [2] - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to Treasury bond futures contracts was relatively high, indicating certain arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, yields of key - term Chinese Treasury bonds generally increased. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 4.75bp to 1.79%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 35.06bp [2] - **Overseas Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, the 10Y Treasury bond yields of the US, Germany, and Japan increased by 1bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On August 18, the central bank carried out 2665 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net investment was 1545 billion yuan after 1120 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted the bidding for the 2025 central treasury cash management commercial bank time deposits (eighth issue), with a winning total of 1200 billion yuan and a winning rate of 1.78% [3] - **Policy Stance**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized improving the effectiveness of macro - policies, stabilizing market expectations, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and consolidating the stabilization of the real estate market [3] - **Market Supervision**: The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors launched a self - regulatory investigation into relevant institutions due to the misappropriation of debt financing tool funds by some issuing enterprises and the ineffective performance of supervision duties by relevant funds supervision banks [3] - **International Events**: The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference. Different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech. Trump met with Zelensky, and they discussed possible trilateral talks and US military participation in peace - keeping in Ukraine. India plans to reform the goods and services tax in response to Trump's tariff threat [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Movements**: On August 18, most money market interest rates increased. Yields of most US Treasury bonds rose [3] - **Market Situation**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield increased. The central bank's net investment, the rise of Shibor short - term varieties, the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds, and the inflow of funds into the non - banking sector led to a convergence of the money supply. The US economic data affected the expectations of interest rate cuts, and the domestic real estate market was still in adjustment, but the social financing stock growth rate continued to rise [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein meals: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meals showed a strong and volatile trend. The USDA's August supply - demand report led to a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop US soybeans due to a significant reduction in the planting area. The final ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season decreased, and the price of US soybeans was supported during the critical growth period, providing strong support for the import cost of domestic soybean meal [3]. - Oils: Night trading of rapeseed and palm oils closed up, while soybean oil closed slightly down. The MPOB August report indicated that the actual inventory of Malaysian palm oil was lower than market expectations, and the inventory accumulation was less than expected. Affected by the news of large - scale confiscation of illegal palm plantations in Indonesia, it is expected that oils will show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures showed that the closing price of soybean oil was 8516, down 18 (-0.21%); palm oil was 9584, up 124 (1.31%); rapeseed oil was 9826, up 69 (0.71%); soybean meal was 3155, up 18 (0.57%); rapeseed meal was 2688, up 39 (1.47%); and peanuts were 8844, up 26 (0.29%) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads and ratios among different varieties and contract months changed. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil increased from 28 to 32, and the P9 - 1 spread of palm oil increased from - 66 to - 50 [2]. 3.2 International Futures Market - The previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4338 ringgit/ton, unchanged; CBOT soybeans were 1043 cents/bushel, down 2 (-0.22%); CBOT US soybean oil was 53 cents/pound, unchanged; and CBOT US soybean meal was 294 dollars/ton, down 3 (-0.92%) [2]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various varieties changed. For example, the price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.46%, and the price of Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil increased by 2.88% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads also changed. For example, the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 214, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 540 to - 760 [2]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profits - Import and crushing profits of different varieties changed. For example, the import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil increased from - 250 to - 204, and that of near - month US Gulf soybeans decreased from - 93 to - 185 [2]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts for soybean oil increased from 14,840 to 15,310, while the warehouse receipts for palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts remained unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - **US Soybean**: As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.91 per bushel, a 5.8% decrease from the previous week. The average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [3]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 18, 2025, the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time, driven by top - level policies and financial policies, with significant inflow of incremental funds and strong economic resilience [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, in a policy window period. There may be more incremental policies in the second half of the year, and external risks are gradually easing. The stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating and structural differentiation exists [2][11]. - Precious metals may show an oscillating trend under the warming of interest - rate cut expectations, with long - term drivers still providing support for gold [3][19]. - The trend of crude oil needs to pay attention to the OPEC production increase situation, and the unemployment rate in the US may rise in August [4][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fluctuated slightly. The previous trading day saw an increase in the stock index, with the communication sector leading the rise and the real - estate sector leading the fall. The market turnover was 2.81 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 7.542 billion yuan on August 15. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 are more defensive [2][11]. - **Precious Metals**: Last week, unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver. Although there are factors supporting the price, the current high price makes gold hesitant to rise, and gold and silver may oscillate [3][19]. - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rose 0.7%. The US - Russia talks over the weekend had no clear conclusion. The unemployment rate in the US may rise to 4.3% in August, and attention should be paid to OPEC production increase [4][13]. b. Main News of the Day - **International News**: US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House, and a trilateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine may be held. Trump also said he would not rule out sending US troops to participate in peace - keeping missions in Ukraine [5]. - **Domestic News**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, stabilizing market expectations, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and consolidating the real - estate market [6]. - **Industry News**: The National Medical Insurance Work Symposium announced nine key tasks, including starting to formulate the DRG 3.0 grouping plan, improving the maternity insurance system, and exploring national unified follow - up procurement after the expiration of the centralized procurement agreement [7]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Similar to the key varieties part, the market is in a favorable period, but sector rotation and differentiation need attention [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.778%. The bond market may continue to be under pressure, and the price difference between new and old bonds and long - and short - term bonds may widen [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: As mentioned before, pay attention to OPEC production increase and the US unemployment rate [4][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night trading fell 1.04%. The overall domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory continued to accumulate. It is short - term bullish [14][15]. - **Rubber**: The price support mainly comes from the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the price may oscillate and fall [16]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin futures were weak. The market is still mainly driven by supply and demand, and the inventory digestion is slow. Pay attention to the autumn restocking market and cost changes [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures are in the process of inventory digestion. The prices have stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: As described above, affected by inflation data and other factors, it shows an oscillating trend [3][19]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the balance of multiple factors, and attention should be paid to US tariffs and other factors [20][21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by factors such as US tariffs and supply - demand [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, demand is also growing, and inventory is in a complex state. There is a risk of correction after the previous rise, and short - selling should be cautious [23]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. It is expected to rise in the second half of the year, and the market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated narrowly. The market is under pressure, and the multi - empty game is intensifying [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The US Department of Agriculture adjusted the soybean production forecast, and the soybean futures inventory is tightening. The price of the domestic protein meal has strong support [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report has a neutral - to - bullish impact on the market. Affected by news from Indonesia, the short - term trend of oils and fats is expected to be bullish and oscillating [29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is expected to be oscillating and bearish, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, and is expected to be oscillating [30]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose. The domestic cotton market supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend may be oscillating and bullish, but the upside space is limited [31]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated slightly. The SCFIS European line price decreased. The market is concerned about the off - season freight rate decline rate and the support of deep discounts [32][33].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output and mixed domestic downstream demand factors such as stable growth in the power industry, positive growth in automobile production and sales, slowing growth in home appliance output, and weak real - estate. Attention should be paid to factors like US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. The concentrate processing fees have been rising, and the domestic supply of concentrates has improved significantly this year with potential recovery in smelting supply. Domestic downstream demand shows positive growth in automobile production and sales and stable growth in infrastructure, but slowing growth in home appliance output and weak real - estate. Attention should be paid to factors like US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Weekend night - session copper prices rose slightly. The current low concentrate processing fees are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry showing positive growth, automobile production and sales growing, home appliance output growth slowing, and real - estate remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 79,170 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 170 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,760 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 93.75 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 155,850 tons, and the daily change was - 25 tons [2]. Zinc - Weekend night - session zinc prices closed lower. The concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real - estate is weak. This year, the concentrate supply has improved significantly, and smelting supply may recover. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,595 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,797 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 5.22 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 77,450 tons, and the daily change was - 1,025 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,755 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 0 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,603 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 1.79 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 479,675 tons, and the daily change was 1,050 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,360 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,870 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,195 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 207.88 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 211,140 tons, and the daily change was 42 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 155 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,981 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.24 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 261,675 tons, and the daily change was - 550 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 269,660 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 3,480 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,610 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 63.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 1,830 tons, and the daily change was 50 tons [2].