Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to the dissipation of geopolitical premiums in the energy and chemical sectors. The markets returned to the mid - term supply - demand logic, presenting opportunities for short positions. Whether to enter the market depends on individual risk tolerance [3][5]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the cease - fire, geopolitical premiums were squeezed out, and the market returned to the mid - term oversupply supply - demand logic [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term oscillatory structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was a sharp decline and a short - term break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: There was an opportunity to enter short positions when the price broke through in the early morning with Iran's symbolic attack. The stop - loss was set at the 572 level [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The operating rate of styrene increased rapidly to 79%, with ample supply, weak downstream demand, and a possible shift to inventory accumulation. It was still easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: There were opportunities to enter short positions when the price broke through last night or when the cease - fire was announced this morning [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: In May, the export volume of Thai mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year, and the supply increase expectation was gradually realized. Tire operating rates declined, inventories were high, and downstream demand expectations remained pessimistic [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was an increase in trading volume and a decline today, returning to the downward structure. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [11]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamental situation was one of high supply, weak demand, and large inventory pressure. Raw material butadiene would still be under pressure, and demand was extremely weak. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [15]. (5) PX - **Logic**: Supported by downstream demand, PX continued to reduce inventory, with a short - term strong fundamental situation. It was more affected by crude oil price fluctuations recently [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [19]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Previously shut - down PTA units were gradually restarting, polyester demand was weak, and the fundamental situation had weakened. It was more easily affected by crude oil price fluctuations in the short term [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The operating rate of PP units increased, supply was under pressure, and terminal demand was weak. The supply expectations of raw materials methanol and propane were affected by the Israel - Iran conflict [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian methanol units stopped operating, increasing supply - side disturbances. Attention was needed on whether this would have a significant impact on future imports [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Maintenance volume gradually decreased, PVC supply increased, and terminal demand was insufficient. The impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on PVC was relatively weak [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure may have ended. It broke through key support today, and the short - term trend may have reversed. - **Strategy**: Wait for a rebound and then enter short positions according to technical signals rather than directly entering the market [28]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply - side maintenance units would gradually resume operation, polyester operating rates declined, and the short - term fundamental situation weakened. It was easily affected by the geopolitical situation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There was pressure from large - scale unit production in the mid - term, with a large expected increase in supply. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, the hourly - level upward structure was under test. There was a significant decline today, testing short - term support, but it had not broken through technically. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [34].

油脂全线下挫、棉花突破上扬 一、农产品板块综述 油脂全线下挫,受到原油暴力下跌的拖累,因以色列和伊朗全面 停火,中东局势急剧降温,原油重挫。同时国内大豆压榨量处于峰值 水平,豆油供应增加,库存累库,令豆油承压下跌。棉花突破上行, 棉花本月以来的横盘区间被突破,因新疆主产区遭遇高温天气影响, 考验棉花作物生长,且虫害也有提前爆发风险,市场担忧新棉花单产 下降,支撑棉价上涨。玉米大幅下跌,因小麦替代效应以及进口玉米 拍卖预期给玉米期价回落压力。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆油:大幅下跌 焦点关注:豆油主力 2509 合约周二大幅下跌,受到原油暴跌的 拖累: 1.以色列和伊朗全面停火,中东局势急速降温,原油价格暴跌, 带动油脂板块全线下跌,豆油跌幅领先。国内5月大豆进口量攀升至 历史同期高位,油厂压榨量处于峰值水平,豆油供应增加,下游需求 步入传统淡季,豆油库存累积,豆油期价承压下跌。 2.豆油主力 2509 合约大幅下跌,报收长阴,跌破 10 日均线, MACD 红柱四缩小,技术转弱,策略上轻仓空单,主力 2509 合约支 撑 7900,阻力 8000。 (二) 棕榈油:大幅下跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 ...

Group 1: Report Core Views - The report focuses on the impact of the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities on the Israel-Iran conflict and the crude oil market, suggesting a preference for optimistic and neutral scenarios for the conflict's evolution, with a strategy of shorting crude oil on rallies [3][4] - Crude oil should be shorted on rallies in the optimistic and neutral scenarios, but the timing of short positions needs to be carefully considered, such as after signs of conflict de-escalation or significant supply increases from OPEC+ [4][5] Group 2: Future Evolution Paths of the Israel-Iran Conflict Optimistic Scenario - Iran either launches symbolic missile attacks on US military bases in the Middle East or does not respond, keeping the conflict limited to exchanges with Israel. Oil production and shipping in Iran are not affected. Eventually, through mediation or Israel's ceasefire, negotiations resume, and the oil price drops back to $60 (WTI) [3] Neutral Scenario - Iran attacks US military bases in the Middle East, leading to US intervention and further sanctions. The Strait of Hormuz is not blocked, and the conflict persists. Oil prices remain above $70 due to risk premiums but fall as OPEC+ increases production [3] Pessimistic Scenario - Iran attacks US military bases and blocks the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict expands, and the oil price may exceed $100, but this is a low - probability event [3] Group 3: Analysis of Various Commodities Crude Oil - Short - term influenced by the Israel - Iran conflict, with a mid - term supply - demand surplus logic taking a back seat. Wait for conflict de - escalation events. Technical analysis shows a mid - term oscillatory structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for support break or de - escalation events to short [6] Styrene (EB) - Supply is abundant with high开工 rates, and demand is weak. It is easily affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for support break or de - escalation events to short [9] Rubber - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak with high inventories. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term oscillatory structure. Strategy: hold short positions [11] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Fundamental situation is weak with high supply, weak demand, and high inventory pressure. It is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for support break or de - escalation events to short [14] PX - Demand supports inventory reduction, but it is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [17] PTA - Supply increases as maintenance devices resume operation, and demand is weak. It is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [20] PP - Supply is under pressure due to increased device operation, and demand is weak. It is affected by the Israel - Iran conflict through raw material supply. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [24] Methanol - Supply is affected by Iranian device shutdowns. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for technical break or de - escalation events to short [25] PVC - Supply is increasing as maintenance decreases, and demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn. The Israel - Iran conflict has a relatively weak impact. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait and see [28] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume, and demand is weak. It is affected by geopolitical situations. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [31] Plastic - There is pressure from large - scale device production in the mid - term, and it is affected by oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows diverse trends. Sugar and hog prices are rising, vegetable oils are at high levels, and corn is moving upward. Each specific variety is affected by different factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Sugar rebounds due to low inventory and the approaching summer consumption peak. Hogs rise strongly as policy requires pig enterprises to reduce sow inventory, mid - year promotions boost sales, and slaughterhouse operating rates increase. Vegetable oils remain high supported by strong crude oil and positive news from production areas. Corn prices move up due to tight supply and a significant drop in imports [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Sugar - Focus: The main sugar 2509 contract breaks through and moves up. In May 2025, sugar imports increased (34.764 tons, a 157.80% month - on - month and 1954.93% year - on - year increase), but the cumulative imports from January to May decreased by 50.1% year - on - year. Low inventory and the consumption peak may further reduce inventory, supporting prices. Technically, it shows strength. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 5684 and resistance at 5732 [2]. 3.2.2 Hogs - Focus: The hog 2509 contract rises strongly, entering an upward trend again. The supply is stable as farmers are not very willing to sell. Mid - year promotions in some areas increase slaughterhouse operating rates (27.97% in the week of June 19, a 0.75 - percentage - point week - on - week and 4.22 - percentage - point year - on - year increase). There is a phenomenon of second - fattening. Policies like stockpiling and reducing sow inventory support prices. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 13730 and resistance at 14000 [3]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Focus: The main soybean oil 2509 contract rises but then falls back, continuing the upward trend. Tensions in the Middle East keep oil prices high, and the strengthening cost side in the domestic market provides upward momentum. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 8100 and resistance at 8200 [5]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil - Focus: The main palm oil 2509 contract first rises then falls, with a narrowing increase. Strong exports (a 10.9% increase in exports from June 1 - 20) and a 4% decrease in production from June 1 - 15 support prices, but India's reduced procurement weakens the increase. Technically, it remains strong. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 8494 and resistance at 8600 [8]. 3.2.5 Eggs - Focus: The main egg 2508 contract first rises then falls, with a narrowing increase. Low egg prices arouse bottom - fishing sentiment, and high - temperature weather reduces laying rates. However, the high - humidity rainy season suppresses demand. Technically, it remains strong. The strategy is to hold long orders, with support at 3600 and resistance at 3655 [9][11]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal - Focus: The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates and closes down. Record - high soybean imports in May bring some pressure, but rising Brazilian soybean export premiums increase costs, supporting prices. Technically, it remains strong. The strategy is to hold long orders, with support at 3050 and resistance at 3087 [12]. 3.2.7 Corn - Focus: The main corn 2509 contract continues to rise, supported by tight supply. Spot prices are firm, and port inventories are decreasing. In May 2025, corn imports dropped 81.5% year - on - year. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 2400 and resistance at 2415 [14]. 3.2.8 Cotton - Focus: The main cotton 2509 contract fluctuates and closes down, continuing the sideways trend. The domestic textile market is in the off - season, but a sharp drop in imports supports prices. The strategy is to close long orders and conduct short - term trading, with support at 13450 and resistance at 13600 [16]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Focus: The main red date 2509 contract falls back after a sharp rise. High - temperature weather in Xinjiang may affect production as the jujubes are in a critical growth period. Technically, it remains in an upward trend. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders during the correction, with support at 9200 and resistance at 9640 [18]. 3.2.10 Apples - Focus: The main apple 2510 contract rises significantly. Apple inventory is low (116.49 tons as of June 18, a 10.97 - ton decrease from the previous period), and new - season apples are in the late bagging stage. Technically, it shows strength. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 7700 and resistance at 7800 [20].

以伊冲突之下等待标志性降温事件 板块观点汇总 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EB | 農汤 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PX | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PTA | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PP | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 塑料 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 甲醇 | 偏多 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EG | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 橡胶 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 空单持有 | | PVC | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | BR 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | 行情日评: 以色列-伊朗冲突尚未降温,以伊冲突仍是近期主要交易逻辑。 昨日特朗普表示将于两周内决定是否对伊朗采取军事行动,暂缓决定 打击伊朗一事,地缘风险小幅降温,但并非标志性的降温信号。目前 原油与能化判断依然是地缘事件带来的溢价扰动,类似与去年 10月 伊朗"真实承诺 2"行动带来的干扰,只是幅度更大,而非趋势反转。 短期情绪推高原油与化工估值后,等待降温事件出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Oils and fats are rising strongly, eggs are making a strong rebound, and pigs are rising with fluctuations. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations [1]. 3. Summary by Product (1) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract continues to rise strongly, boosted by US biofuel policies. Tensions in the Middle East drive up crude oil prices, which in turn drive up vegetable oils. Although domestic inventory is accumulating, the external market is strong. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7980 and resistance at 8100 [2]. (2) Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract continues to rise at a high level after a sharp increase, supported by rising oil prices and the upward trend of related oils. The export of Malaysian palm oil is strong, and production has declined. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 8450 and resistance at 8600 [3]. (3) Eggs - The egg main 2508 contract makes a strong rebound, driven by speculative buying. Egg prices are at a low level, leading to a release of bottom - fishing sentiment. Spot market transactions have improved, and inventory is low. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to buy long positions with support at 3545 and resistance at 3656 [6]. (4) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates at a high level. Domestic oil mills have a high operating rate, and inventory is accumulating. However, strong terminal demand and rising spot prices support the futures price. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 3054 and resistance at 3087 [7][9][11]. (5) Corn - The corn main 2507 contract oscillates at a high level. Support comes from wheat's minimum purchase price, rising corn starch prices, and reduced port inventory. However, concerns about policy grain release limit its increase. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 2362 and resistance at 2380 [13]. (6) Pigs - The pig 2509 contract continues to rise with fluctuations. Short - term government purchases boost market sentiment, and factors such as reduced supply and transportation restrictions support pig prices. Technically, it shows strong characteristics, and the recommended strategy is to hold long positions with support at 13795 and resistance at 13930 [14]. (7) Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract oscillates at a low level. The decline in the external raw sugar market drags down Zhengzhou sugar, but low domestic inventory and the upcoming consumption season provide some support. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 5645 and resistance at 5700 [16]. (8) Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract rises with fluctuations. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and declining port inventory support cotton prices. Although the domestic textile market is in the off - season, there are signs of improvement in external orders. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 13500 and resistance at 13600 [19]. (9) Apples - The apple main 2510 contract fluctuates strongly. Low inventory supports the futures price, but the slow pace of inventory clearance and the gap with the same period in previous years are narrowing. Attention should be paid to the growth and quality of new - season apples. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7618 and resistance at 7700 [20][22]. (10) Peanuts - The peanut main 2510 contract oscillates and closes down. The market is in a stalemate between supply and demand, with low remaining inventory in the production area and limited demand from oil mills. Technically, it is weak, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - short positions with support at 8220 and resistance at 8286 [23].

地缘风险继续推动行情, 等待标志性降温事件 逻辑:以伊冲突下短期地缘溢价继续被市场交易,中期供需过剩 逻辑暂且退场。等待冲突下的标志性降温事件出现,如伊朗同意放弃 轴浓缩确定新谈判时间。 日度技术追踪:原油日线级别中期震荡结构,小时级别短期上涨 结构。今日增仓上行,小时 K 线则尚未转势,短期支撑关注 508一线。 策略上小时周期观望等待短期支撑破位或看到以伊冲突的标志性降 温事件后再逢高空。 图 1.1: 原油 2508 日线图 (二) 苯乙烯: 板块观点汇总 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 農汤 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EB | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PX | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PTA | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PP | 農物 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 塑料 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 甲醇 | 偏多 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EG | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | PVC | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单止 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Israel-Iran conflict continues, but it is likely to cool down. After the short - term sentiment pushes up the valuations of crude oil and chemicals, wait for the cooling event to find mid - term short - selling opportunities [2][3] - The short - term trading in the market is based on the geopolitical premium under the Israel - Iran conflict, while the mid - term supply - demand surplus logic of crude oil has temporarily retreated [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Short - term trading is based on geopolitical premium under the Israel - Iran conflict, and the mid - term supply - demand surplus logic has temporarily retreated [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. There are signs of a peak on the daily K - line, and the hourly K - line has not reversed. The short - term support is at 490. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [4] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The supply of pure benzene at the cost end is sufficient, and the port inventory is at a five - year high. The mid - term supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, but it is affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil prices in the short term [7] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reduced positions and declined today but has not reversed. The hourly - level support is at 7315. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai cup rubber is 27% lower than the same period last year, and the supply in Southeast Asian producing areas is gradually being realized. The demand is extremely weak both at home and abroad. The mid - term bearish fundamentals remain unchanged [10] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The 14000 level is still a valid short - term pressure. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [10] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are still in a weak pattern of high supply, weak demand, and large inventory pressure. The price of raw material butadiene will be under pressure after the large - scale commissioning of cracking units in June and the second half of the year. The demand is as weak as that of rubber. The mid - term fundamentals are bearish, but it is easily disturbed by large fluctuations in crude oil in the short term [13] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It reduced positions and declined today, with some fluctuations near the short - term pressure of 11470. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11640 [13] (5) PX - **Logic**: Some PX plants will resume production in June, and the demand side (PTA) will also restart the overhauled plants. The current PX inventory is low, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced. It is more affected by crude oil fluctuations in the short term [17] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today. The short - term support is at 6510 or wait for the crude oil to break the signal. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [17] (6) PTA - **Logic**: The previously overhauled PTA plants are gradually resuming production, the polyester start - up has declined, and the de - stocking amplitude has narrowed. The fundamentals have weakened, but it is more affected by crude oil fluctuations in the short term [20] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today. The short - term support is at 4610 or wait for the crude oil to break the signal. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [20] (7) PP - **Logic**: The start - up of PP plants has increased, the supply is under pressure, and the order demand at the terminal demand end is weak in the traditional off - season. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but it is affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil from the cost end recently [23] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support below is at 7060. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The Iranian methanol plants have stopped production, increasing supply - side disturbances. The domestic plants have high profits, and the domestic start - up remains at a historical high. The inventory has entered the accumulation stage [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 2365. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [25] (9) PVC - **Logic**: The overhaul volume is gradually decreasing, and the PVC start - up is expected to gradually increase. The terminal demand is still insufficient in the real - estate downward cycle, and the export expectation has weakened significantly. The bearish fundamentals remain unchanged [28] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today and has not reversed in the short term. The short - term pressure is still at 4880. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 4865 [28] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The overhauled plants at the supply end will gradually resume, and the polyester start - up at the demand end has declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened, but it is easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 4310. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [31] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There is pressure from the commissioning of large plants in the mid - term, and the supply is expected to increase significantly. The mid - term view is bearish, but it is easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [32] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 7220. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [32]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The agricultural products sector shows diverse trends. Soybean meal is strongly rising, sugar is rebounding, and the oil and fat sector is oscillating upward. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal consumption patterns [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Soybean Meal - The 2509 contract has risen significantly, reaching a new stage high. The US bio - fuel policy has boosted US soybean prices, which in turn support domestic soybean varieties. Despite high domestic oil mill operating rates, strong terminal demand and active提货 keep inventory accumulation slow. As of the 24th week, the inventory was 410,000 tons, with a 7.19% week - on - week increase and a 58.79% year - on - year decrease. The technical pattern is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 3050 and resistance at 3100 [2]. (2) Soybean Oil - The 2509 contract oscillated upward. The US renewable fuel policy has a positive impact, but high domestic oil mill operating rates and increased inventory limit the upward space. The contract is technically strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 7932 and resistance at 8100 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - The 2509 contract oscillated upward. The US bio - fuel policy and strong Malaysian palm oil exports support the price. The technical pattern is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 8400 and resistance at 8500 [5]. (4) Corn - The 2507 contract first declined and then rose, showing a high - level oscillation. The wheat purchase price and reduced supply pressure support the price. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 2353 and resistance at 2369 [7]. (5) Live Pigs - The 2509 contract oscillated upward. The state purchase plan, reduced supply, and transportation restrictions support the price. The technical pattern is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold long positions with support at 13750 and resistance at 13930 [10]. (6) Eggs - The 2508 contract oscillated downward, falling into a weak state again. High egg - laying hen inventory and the off - season for sales put downward pressure on the price. The technical pattern is weak, and the recommended strategy is to close long positions with support at 3537 and resistance at 3600 [11][13]. (7) Sugar - The 2509 contract strongly rebounded. The rebound of the external market and the approaching domestic consumption season support the price. The technical pattern has turned strong, and the recommended strategy is to close short positions and consider long positions with support at 5636 and resistance at 5725 [14]. (8) Cotton - The 2509 contract oscillated and closed with a small positive candle, continuing the sideways trend. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and reduced inventory support the price, but the off - season in the textile market limits the upward space. The technical pattern is slightly strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 13450 and resistance at 13600 [16]. (9) Apples - The 2510 contract strongly rose, entering an upward trend. Low inventory supports the price, and attention should be paid to the growth and quality of new - season apples. The technical pattern has turned strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 7594 and resistance at 7698 [18]. (10) Peanuts - The 2510 contract oscillated downward, and the rebound was limited. The weakening support from the oil and fat sector and low demand limit the price. The technical pattern is weak, and the recommended strategy is to close long positions with support at 8240 and resistance at 8334 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil's sharp rise drives the overall strength of the oil and fat sector. Due to the Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the Middle - East situation has suddenly become tense, increasing the geopolitical premium and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. The palm oil price has risen, with its origin showing both supply and demand growth. Meanwhile, eggs have rebounded, and corn has fluctuated at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Crude oil's sharp rise drives the overall strength of the oil and fat sector. The Middle - East situation's tension boosts the geopolitical premium and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. Palm oil has risen, with its origin having both supply and demand growth. The strong exports of Malaysian palm oil support the price increase, but the production growth also limits the increase. Eggs have rebounded due to potential bullish expectations after contract transfer and over - culling in the breeding end. Corn has fluctuated at a high level, supported by the wheat support policy, tight supply in the producing areas, and a sharp increase in the corn price in the sales areas [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil: Rebound and Oscillation - The palm oil main 2509 contract has risen significantly, boosted by the sharp rise in crude oil. The tense Middle - East situation drives the rise in palm oil. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase, but India's strong demand for palm oil exports supports the price. In China, palm oil inventory has increased year - on - year, and it is mainly for rigid demand. The main 2509 contract shows a box - shaped oscillation. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8086 and resistance at 8224 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil: Gap - up and Higher - The soybean oil main 2509 contract has risen due to the sharp rise in crude oil. However, the subsequent increase may be limited because of the large arrival of imported soybeans in China, high oil mill operating rates, and increased soybean oil supply and inventory. As of the end of the 23rd week, domestic soybean oil inventory was 91.89 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.42%. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 7736 and resistance at 7838 [4]. 3.2.3 Live Hogs: Continuous Rise - The live hog 2509 contract has continued to rise, boosted by the news of state reserve purchases. The 10,000 - ton reserve purchase has boosted market confidence, supported the hog price, and increased buying from long positions. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 13700 and resistance at 13880 [6]. 3.2.4 Eggs: Rebound from Low Levels - The egg main 2508 contract has rebounded from low levels, boosted by increased culling of laying hens. After contract transfer, there are potential bullish factors. The accelerated culling of hens may reduce egg supply pressure. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to whether the resistance of the 20 - day moving average can be overcome, with support at 3500 and resistance at 3566 [8]. 3.2.5 Sugar: Rebound after Reaching a Low - The sugar main 2509 contract has rebounded after reaching a low, supported by some short - covering. The increased sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand puts pressure on the international sugar price. Although China's sugar production has increased and import volume is expected to rise, the high sugar sales rate and the upcoming summer consumption season support the price. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 5610 and resistance at 5686 [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal: Oscillation and Decline - The soybean meal 2509 contract has oscillated and declined at a high level due to long - position profit - taking and cost - driven cooling. The high operating rate of domestic oil mills has increased soybean meal inventory. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 3037 and resistance at 3065 [12]. 3.2.7 Corn: High - level Fluctuation - The corn main 2507 contract has fluctuated at a high level, first falling and then rising. Supported by the wheat support policy, tight supply in the producing areas, low imported corn, and a sharp increase in the sales - area spot price, the adjustment space is limited. The strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 2372 and resistance at 2387 [15]. 3.2.8 Cotton: First Decline then Rise, High - level Oscillation - The cotton main 2509 contract has first declined then risen and is running strongly. The Sino - US economic and trade consultation meeting has increased market optimism, and the decreasing port inventory of imported cotton also has a positive impact. Although the domestic textile market is in the off - season, the easing of Sino - US relations has stabilized market sentiment. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 13390 and resistance at 13600 [16][18]. 3.2.9 Apples: Narrow - range Oscillation - The apple main 2510 contract has oscillated in a narrow range, with limited rebound space. Low inventory supports the price, but slow sales in the off - season offset some of the support. The inventory depletion has slowed down, and the expected reduction in new - season production has decreased. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 7544 and resistance at 7637 [19][21]. 3.2.10 Peanuts: Narrow - range Fluctuation - The peanut main 2510 contract has had a small rebound after a continuous sharp decline and is fluctuating in a narrow range. The peanut market currently has weak supply and demand. Some suppliers' profit - taking and weak terminal demand put pressure on the price. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 8180 and resistance at 8232 [22].