Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report indicates that crude oil continues to be weak, and the energy and chemical sectors are undergoing an oscillatory repair. The fundamentals of various products are under different pressures, with most showing a bearish trend in the short - term, and their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost changes, while also being influenced by the trend of crude oil [1][2]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Logic: On August 3, the OPEC+ meeting decided to continue a significant production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September. U.S. refined oil apparent demand has been weakening in the past two weeks, and after consecutive inventory builds of crude oil and refined oil, the support from low inventory has weakened. There is also a tendency for "recession expectations" trading in the macro - environment [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, with the short - term pressure level shifting down to 516. The strategy is to look for opportunities to go short after a rebound [1][2]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: The cost of pure benzene remains under pressure. High profits in benzene ethylene stimulate increased supply and new device production, leading to greater supply pressure. Demand remains weak, and the fundamentals will continue to be under pressure [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory without changing the downward path. The short - term pressure is at 7375, and the 15 - minute pressure is at 7325. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [6]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonally, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year's rubber supply is difficult to increase, and terminal tire inventories are much higher than historical levels, resulting in weaker demand expectations. High - inventory pressure drives the fundamentals downward [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory without changing the downward path. The short - term pressure is at 15120, and the 15 - minute pressure is at 14600. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: High terminal tire inventories lead to weaker demand expectations. Supply - side device restarts and capacity releases maintain high production. Although the short - term inventory of butadiene is low, it will be bearish after more arrivals. The fundamentals are bearish [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory without changing the downward path. The short - term pressure is at 11550. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The start - up of downstream terminals has increased during the off - peak to peak season transition, but overall changes in upstream and downstream start - ups are small. The short - term fundamentals have few contradictions and may follow the direction of crude oil [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. There was a rebound repair today, with the 15 - minute cycle turning bullish, but the hourly - level has not reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle (partially take profit and re - enter after the 15 - minute cycle breaks through) [17]. PTA - Logic: Upstream and downstream start - ups remain stable, and inventory is neutral. The short - term fundamentals have no contradictions and may follow the direction of crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. There was a rebound repair today, with the 15 - minute cycle turning bullish, but the hourly - level has not reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle (partially take profit and re - enter after the 15 - minute cycle breaks through) [19]. PP - Logic: During the demand off - season, downstream start - ups are weak. With new capacity launches and restart of maintenance devices, inventories at all levels are continuously building. The fundamentals are bearish, and attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil [22]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and after a sharp short - term decline, the slope was repaired without changing the declining structure. The pressure level at 7195 is far away, and the 15 - minute cycle pressure at 7100 can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22]. Methanol - Logic: Port inventories continue to build, domestic maintenance devices have restarted, and the start - up rate has increased, remaining at the highest level in history. Downstream demand is average for olefins and good for traditional downstream sectors, with few short - term contradictions [25]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term declining/oscillatory structure, and the short - term is in a declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and the short - term pressure is at 2400. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [25]. PVC - Logic: Some devices have ended maintenance and start - ups have increased. Terminal demand remains weak due to the ongoing real - estate downturn and the off - season. After the exchange restricted positions and the Politburo meeting did not mention anti - involution, speculative funds withdrew, leading to a short - term downward correction [27]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term rising structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and the downward path remained unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: After consecutive declines, low port inventories provide short - term support, but terminal demand remains weak. The current situation is strong, but the expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the time when inventories start to build [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and the short - term pressure is at 4425. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29]. Plastic - Logic: Maintenance devices have restarted, start - ups have increased, and new capacity has been launched, resulting in large supply pressure. Downstream start - ups remain at a low level year - on - year and are weak. The supply - demand situation is bearish [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillatory structure. The intraday trading was oscillatory, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for the 15 - minute cycle to turn into a declining structure. The 15 - minute support is at 4395. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and pay attention to the opportunity for the 15 - minute cycle to break through and reverse [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The energy and chemical sector is oscillating to repair the previous sharp decline. The fundamentals of various products are under different pressures, and the technical analysis shows mostly short - term downward structures, with corresponding trading strategies mainly being to hold short positions or seek opportunities to go short on rebounds [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: On August 3rd, OPEC+ decided to continue a substantial production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September. U.S. refined oil apparent demand has been weakening in the past two weeks, and the low - inventory support has diminished after continuous inventory accumulation. There is a tendency for "recession expectation" trading in the macro - environment, but potential Trump sanctions against Russia may cause short - term disturbances [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a new low, the upper pressure level has moved down to 516. The strategy is to seek opportunities to go short on rebounds [2]. 2. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The cost of pure benzene remains under pressure. High profits stimulate increased supply and new device production, while demand is weak. The high - inventory, high - supply, and weak - demand pattern will continue to pressure the fundamentals [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is declining. The upper short - term pressure is at 7375, and the 15 - minute pressure is at 7325. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [6]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: According to seasonal logic, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year's supply is difficult to increase, and high tire inventories lead to weak demand expectations. The high - inventory pressure from seasonal inventory accumulation makes the fundamental drive downward [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a short - term sharp decline, it is repairing the slope. The upper pressure is at 15120. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [10]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: High tire inventories lead to weak demand expectations. Supply - side device restarts and capacity releases maintain high production. The short - term inventory of butadiene is low, but it will turn bearish after more arrivals. The fundamentals are bearish [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a short - term sharp decline, it is repairing the slope. The upper pressure is at 11550. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The start - up of downstream terminals has increased during the off - peak to peak season conversion, but overall changes in upstream and downstream start - ups are small. It may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is declining. The upper pressure is at 6775. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [17]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: Upstream and downstream start - ups remain stable, and inventory is neutral. There is no short - term fundamental contradiction, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [19][22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a new low, the decline structure is confirmed. The upper pressure is at 4715. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22]. 7. PP - **Logic**: It is the demand off - season, and downstream start - ups are weak. New capacity is put into production, and maintenance devices are restarted, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The fundamental drive is downward, and the movement of crude oil should be monitored [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a short - term sharp decline, it is repairing the slope. The upper pressure level is at 7195, and the 15 - minute pressure can be focused on at 7140. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [23]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: Port inventories continue to accumulate, domestic maintenance devices are restarted, and start - ups are increasing. Downstream demand is average for olefins and good for traditional downstream, with no short - term contradictions [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is declining/oscillating, and the short - term structure is declining. The upper short - term pressure is at 2400. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [26]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: Some devices have ended maintenance, and start - ups have increased. Terminal demand remains weak due to the real - estate downturn and the off - season. After the exchange restricted positions and the Politburo meeting did not mention anti - involution, speculative funds withdrew, and prices are repairing downward in the short term [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is rising, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a late - session reduction in positions and a rebound, the downward path remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [30]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Low port inventories after continuous decline provide short - term support, but terminal demand remains weak. The present is strong, but the expectation is weak. The time when inventories turn to accumulation should be monitored [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. The upper short - term pressure is at 4425. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [31]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: Maintenance devices are restarted, start - ups are increasing, and new capacity is put into production, leading to high supply pressure. Downstream start - ups remain at a low level year - on - year, and the supply - demand drive is bearish [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level structure is oscillating. After a reduction in positions and a rebound, the hourly - level structure is unclear, and the 15 - minute level has turned bullish. It follows market sentiment recently. The strategy is to hold short positions and can stop profit [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with strong performance in the oil sector led by palm oil, while corn, eggs, and other products continue to decline. Each variety is affected by different supply - demand fundamentals and technical factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each variety [1]. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil 2509 contract rose significantly, driven by cost recovery and a decline in domestic inventories. As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area palm oil inventory was 58.22 tons, a 5.41% week - on - week decrease. The import cost rebounded on August 5. However, the weak fundamentals of increasing production and decreasing exports in Malaysia may limit its rebound space [2]. - Technically, the futures price stood above the moving average system, with the MACD green column shrinking. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8964 and resistance at 9106 [3][4]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil 2509 contract rose strongly to a new high, boosted by the strength of palm oil. Although domestic oil mills maintained high crushing volumes and soybean oil inventories continued to accumulate, there may be a supply gap in the future. China's exports of soybean oil to India also supported the price [5]. - Technically, the futures price was above the moving average system, with the MACD red column expanding. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8260 and resistance at 8400 [5]. Corn - The corn 2509 contract fell significantly to a four - month low. Supply increased due to continuous auctions of imported corn by CGSGB, continuous wheat substitution, and good new - season corn production. Demand was weak as feed enterprises used previous inventories and deep - processing enterprises had poor profits [7]. - Technically, the futures price was below the moving average system, with the MACD green column expanding after a zero - axis death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 2220 and resistance at 2260 [7]. Eggs - The egg 2509 contract continued to decline, hitting a new low for the year. The supply was abundant as the culling of old hens was slow and the number of newly - laid hens increased. The July national in - production laying - hen inventory was about 1.292 billion, a 1.73% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year increase. Demand was weak due to postponed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking and other factors [9]. - Technically, the futures price was far below the moving average system, with the MACD green column significantly expanding after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 3300 and resistance at 3390 [9]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract first rose and then declined, with limited upside. The expected high inventory in August (above 1.2 million tons) pressured the price, but the increase in imported soybean costs and concerns about insufficient supply in the fourth quarter provided support [11]. - Technically, the futures price fluctuated above the moving averages. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3014 and resistance at 3050 [11]. Cotton - The cotton 2509 contract's rebound was blocked. Xinjiang's cotton production is expected to be good, and the market anticipates the issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas. The downstream textile industry is in a slump, with weak demand for cotton [13]. - Technically, the futures price fell below the moving averages, with the MACD green column continuing after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13535 and resistance at 13750 [13]. Live Pigs - The live pig 2509 contract continued to fall to a one - and - a - half - month low. Supply increased as farmers accelerated the release of production capacity, and demand was weak due to high - temperature weather and increased alternative consumption [15]. - Technically, the futures price continued to fall, with the MACD green column continuing to expand after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13770 and resistance at 14000 [15]. White Sugar - The Zhengzhou white sugar 2509 contract continued to fall, hitting a one - month low. The expectation of increased imported sugar volume pressured the price, and the future increase in processed sugar may slow down the inventory reduction of domestic sugar [17]. - Technically, the futures price was below the moving average system, with the MACD green column continuously expanding after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 5680 and resistance at 5730 [17]. Red Dates - The red date 2601 contract first declined and then rose. There is an expected reduction in new - date production (estimated at 56 - 62 million tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease). The consumption is in the off - season, and the sample inventory is slowly decreasing [19]. - Technically, the futures price showed a strong trend, with the MACD red column continuing after a golden cross. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 10720 and resistance at 11100 [19]. Apples - The apple 2510 contract continued to rebound, supported by short - covering. As of July 31, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 576,100 tons, 410,500 tons lower than the same period last year. The supply is a mix of old and new apples, and the demand is average [21]. - Technically, the futures price stood above the short - term moving averages. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 7796 and resistance at 7900 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is generally under pressure. Eggs, corn, and sugar are in a downward trend, while soybean meal has limited upward space and may face downward pressure later. Cotton is in a short - term rebound but the downward trend remains. Other products such as palm oil, pork, etc. also show different degrees of decline or unfavorable fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of eggs has plummeted, hitting a new low this year. The supply is abundant with high egg - laying hen inventory, slow old - hen culling, and increasing newly - laid hens. The demand side has a postponed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking cycle, and high - temperature weather has increased egg substitutes and affected logistics, leading to low - price selling by farmers [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is running far below the moving - average system, with a MACD death cross and a significant increase in the green column, showing a weak technical pattern [3]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 3330 and resistance at 3400 [3]. Corn - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of corn continues to decline. The regular auction of corn by the State Grain Reserve, wheat substitution, and the approaching listing of spring corn have increased supply. The demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is weak [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has fallen below the 2300 integer mark, with a MACD death cross below the zero axis and the appearance of a green column, indicating a weak technical pattern [4]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 2274 and resistance at 2300 [4]. Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The 2509 contract of soybean meal fluctuates upward but with limited amplitude. The increase in soybean import costs provides support, and the downstream demand has slightly improved. However, the high - volume crushing of oil mills has led to sufficient supply and inventory accumulation [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has once stood above the moving - average system, showing a slightly strong technical pattern [6]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3050 [6]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of cotton rebounds at a low level due to short - covering, but the downward trend remains. The new - year cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the market anticipates the issuance of sliding - duty quotas. The textile industry is in a slack season with insufficient orders [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is still under the pressure of the medium - term moving average, with a MACD death cross and a continuous green column, showing a weak technical pattern [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 13535 and resistance at 13715 [8]. Soybean Oil - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil fluctuates narrowly at a high level. High - volume crushing by domestic oil mills has led to continuous inventory accumulation, but exports to India have boosted prices. The supply - demand pattern remains supply - strong and demand - weak [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is still above the moving - average system, with a long - position arrangement of moving averages and a continuous red MACD column, showing a strong technical pattern [10]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position long position, with support at 8176 and resistance at 8300 [10]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of palm oil fluctuates downward. The weak fundamentals of increasing production and decreasing exports in Malaysia have pressured the price, and the domestic demand is still sluggish [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [12]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 8740 and resistance at 8850 [12]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: The 2509 contract of pigs continues to decline, hitting a one - and - a - half - month low. The supply has increased due to factors such as disease risks and incremental slaughter by group pig enterprises, while the demand is weak [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has continuously closed with negative lines, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [14]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 13770 and resistance at 14000 [14]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to decline, hitting a one - month low. The overseas market has increased production, and the domestic market is under pressure from the expected increase in imported sugar [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has fallen below the moving - average system and expanded the downward space, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 5700 and resistance at 5750 [16]. Jujubes - **Market Situation**: The main 2601 contract of jujubes rises and then falls, fluctuating at a high level. The estimated new - jujube production is slightly lower than expected, and the consumption is in the off - season. The futures market is still in a game about the new - jujube production reduction [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price fluctuates above the moving averages, with a MACD golden cross and an enlarged red column [19]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position long position, with support at 10810 and resistance at 11150 [19]. Apples - **Market Situation**: The main 2510 contract of apples rebounds with the support of short - covering, but the space may be limited. The price of early - maturing apples in the west is falling, and the trading of stored apples in Shandong is slow [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is still under the pressure of the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [22]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with support at 7736 and resistance at 7865 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Crude oil has significantly declined, putting pressure on the energy and chemical sector to continue weakening. Most varieties in the sector are in a situation where the medium - term structure is oscillating and the short - term structure is bearish, with the recommended strategy of holding short positions [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: On August 3rd, OPEC+ decided to continue a substantial production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September. U.S. refined oil apparent demand has been weakening in the past two weeks, and after continuous inventory accumulation of crude oil and refined oil, the support of low inventory has weakened. The market has shifted from weak expectations to the stage of weak reality realization, and the weight of fundamentals has increased. There may be a tendency of "recession expectation" trading in the macro - economy after the cold U.S. non - farm payrolls in July. However, potential short - term disturbances caused by Trump's sanctions on Russia should be guarded against [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of crude oil is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a long bearish candlestick with heavy volume today, the short - term structure has reversed. The upper pressure level is around 530, and currently, the 516 level of the 15 - minute short - term decline can be referred to. The strategy is to look for opportunities to go short after the rebound ends (first focus on the 15 - minute level) [2]. 2. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The pressure on pure benzene at the cost end remains high. The considerable profit of styrene stimulates the increase of supply and production capacity utilization, and the supply pressure further increases with the commissioning of new plants. The demand side has been lackluster, and the fundamentals will continue to be under pressure under the pattern of high inventory, high supply, and weak demand [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is declining. After reaching a low point today, it rebounded slightly, and the intraday oscillation did not change the downward path. The short - term upper pressure can be temporarily focused on the 7375 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: According to the seasonal logic, the price should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply of rubber has been difficult to increase under normal weather conditions. The high inventory of terminal tires far exceeding historical levels has made the demand expectation weaker than in previous years. Coupled with the high inventory pressure of continuous seasonal inventory accumulation, the fundamental driving force of rubber is still downward [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of rubber is declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also declining. It oscillated intraday today, and after a short - term sharp decline, the slope was repaired. The upper pressure can be focused on the 15120 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The high inventory of terminal tires far exceeding historical levels has made the demand expectation weaker than in previous years. The supply side has released production capacity with the restart of plants, and the production and operation rate have remained high. The short - term inventory of butadiene at the cost end is low with little pressure, but it will also be bearish after the increase of arrivals in the future. The fundamentals are bearish [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. It oscillated intraday today, and after a short - term sharp decline, the slope was repaired. The upper pressure can be focused on the 11550 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: There is little change in the overall operation rate of upstream and downstream industries during the conversion of peak and off - peak seasons of downstream terminals. There is little short - term fundamental contradiction, and it may follow the direction of crude oil at the cost end [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is declining. It continued to decline with increasing positions today, and the downward structure was confirmed after reaching a new short - term low. The upper pressure level of 6980 is far away, and the 6830 level of the 15 - minute cycle can be referred to first. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [18]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: The operation rates of upstream and downstream industries remain stable with little change, and the inventory is at a neutral level. There is no short - term fundamental contradiction, and it may follow the direction of crude oil at the cost end [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA is declining. It continued to decline with increasing positions today, and the downward structure was confirmed after reaching a new short - term low. The upper pressure level of 4900 is far away, and the 4785 level of the 15 - minute cycle can be referred to first. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20]. 7. PP - **Logic**: It is the off - season for demand, and the downstream operation rate is weak. Coupled with the commissioning of new production capacity and the restart of maintenance plants, the inventory at all links has continued to accumulate. The fundamental driving force is downward, and the trend of crude oil should also be noted [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is declining. It oscillated intraday today, and after a short - term sharp decline, the slope was repaired to some extent without changing the downward structure. The upper pressure level of 7195 is far away, and the 7140 level of the 15 - minute cycle can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [23]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: The inventory at ports has continued to accumulate, and domestic maintenance plants have restarted, with the operation rate increasing and remaining at the highest level in history year - on - year. The demand for olefins in the downstream is average, while that of traditional downstream industries is good, and the overall situation is acceptable with little short - term contradiction [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of methanol is declining/oscillating, and the short - term structure is declining. It oscillated intraday today, with the center of gravity slowly moving down. The upper pressure can be temporarily focused on the 2425 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [26]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: Some plants have ended maintenance and the operation rate has increased. The terminal demand continues to be weak due to the ongoing decline of the real estate industry and the off - season. After the exchange restricted positions and the Politburo meeting did not mention anti - involution, the speculative funds with previous expectations withdrew, and the price has been downward - adjusting in the short term [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of PVC is rising, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. It continued to decline with increasing positions today, and the downward path remained unchanged. The short - term upper pressure can be focused on the 5070 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: After continuous decline, the low inventory at ports provides short - term support, but the terminal demand remains weak. The current situation is relatively strong, but the expectation is weak. The time point when the inventory turns to accumulation should be noted [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of EG is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. It oscillated intraday today, with the center of gravity slowly moving down. The short - term upper pressure level of 4490 is far away, and the 4410 level of the 15 - minute cycle can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [30]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: Maintenance plants have restarted, and the operation rate has increased. Coupled with the commissioning of new production capacity, the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream operation rate remains at a low level year - on - year and continues to be weak. The supply - demand driving force is bearish [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of plastic is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level structure is oscillating. It rebounded slightly after a decline today, and the hourly - level structure is not clear, following the market sentiment recently. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is generally under pressure. Corn, eggs, cotton, and sugar are all showing downward trends, while some products like soybean oil are in a state of high - level adjustment, and palm oil, soybean meal, and others are also experiencing downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Corn prices are under pressure due to factors such as continuous auctions of imported corn, wheat substitution, possible restart of directional rice auctions in August, and the listing of spring corn. It is expected to run weakly in the future [1]. - Egg prices have dropped to a new low because of high egg - laying hen inventory, slow culling of old hens, insufficient capacity reduction, sufficient supply, and average demand. The downward space may expand [1]. - Cotton prices continue to decline due to the expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak downstream demand [1]. - Sugar prices have broken through the support level, and the expected increase in imported sugar volume has suppressed the market [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Corn - Focus: The main 2509 contract of corn has fallen sharply. Supply is abundant with multiple factors, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 2274, and the resistance is 2300 [2]. 3.2.2 Eggs - Focus: The main 2509 contract of eggs has fallen to a new low this year. The supply - side pressure is high with high egg - laying hen inventory and slow capacity reduction. Demand lacks positive factors. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 3500, and the resistance is 3550 [3]. 3.2.3 Soybean Meal - Focus: The 2509 contract of soybean meal has fallen in a volatile manner, affected by the sharp decline of US soybeans in the external market. Supply is sufficient, and some long - positions in the futures market have been closed. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short - term short order. The support for the 2509 contract is 2980, and the resistance is 3007 [5]. 3.2.4 Cotton - Focus: The main 2509 contract of cotton has continued to fall, with an expanding downward space. The new cotton harvest expectation and weak downstream demand are negative factors. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 13600, and the resistance is 13780 [8]. 3.2.5 Soybean Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil has fallen and closed in the negative, adjusting at a high level. Supply is sufficient, but there is news of exports to India. Technically, the strength has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold a light - position long order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 8150, and the resistance is 8280 [11]. 3.2.6 Palm Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of palm oil has fallen in a volatile manner, adjusting at a high level. The production in Malaysia has increased, and exports have decreased. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to close long positions and hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 8810, and the resistance is 8960 [12][15]. 3.2.7 Live Pigs - Focus: The 2509 contract of live pigs has continued to fall, affected by increased supply and weak demand. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 14050, and the resistance is 14160 [16]. 3.2.8 Sugar - Focus: The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has continued to fall. The expected increase in Brazilian sugar production and concerns about the increase in imported sugar volume in the domestic market have led to long - position closing. Technically, it has turned weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 5768, and the resistance is 5814 [18]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Focus: The main 2601 contract of red dates has first risen and then fallen, adjusting downward. The estimated new jujube production has a smaller - than - expected decline, and consumption is in the off - season. The strategy is to reduce long positions. The support for the main 2601 contract is 10500, and the resistance is 10850 [20]. 3.2.10 Apples - Focus: The main 2510 contract of apples has broken through the support level and continued to fall. The inventory trading is average, and the listing of early - maturing apples has not improved the situation. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2510 contract is 7755, and the resistance is 7860 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - After the Politburo meeting on July 25 fell short of expectations, commodity sentiment cooled down, and today it hit rock - bottom. Most energy and chemical products, except for PVC and two types of rubber, mainly fluctuated with market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in sentiment and the trend of crude oil on the cost side [3][4] - Trump's remarks pressuring Russia briefly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the supply pressure in the third quarter has soared. The North American peak season is coming to an end, and the off - season is approaching. The supply - demand pressure for crude oil will gradually emerge [5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: Trump's remarks briefly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the supply - demand pressure will gradually appear. The North American peak season is ending, and the off - season is approaching, with the United States' refined oil inventories increasing for three consecutive weeks and crude oil inventories starting to accumulate [5] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It rose and then fell today, with intraday fluctuations. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle, and the short - term support is at the 526 level [5] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply start - up has increased, port inventories have continued to accumulate, total inventories are at a historically high level compared to the same period, actual demand has not improved, and new device production is approaching. The fundamental driving force remains bearish [8] - Technical Analysis: Short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It continued to fall today and closed at a new low. The short - term pressure above is temporarily at the 7440 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [8] Rubber - Logic: Precipitation disturbances in Hainan and Southeast Asia postponed the supply increase, but a new typhoon is moving north, and supply increase is a relatively certain path. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level start - up is difficult to sustain. The current rubber inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the fundamental driving force remains bearish [12] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term decline on the daily level, short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today and hit a new short - term low. The pressure above is at the 15120 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Supply device start - up has increased, synthetic rubber production has significantly rebounded. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level start - up is difficult to sustain. The cost of butadiene has some support due to low port inventories, but the medium - term fundamental pressure on synthetic rubber remains high [17] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today and hit a new short - term low. The pressure above is at the 11950 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [17] PX - Logic: Polyester start - up continues to decline, demand expectations are pessimistic, supply start - up has rebounded, and supply - demand is weak. The cost of crude oil is expected to decline significantly, and it mainly fluctuates with crude oil [20] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today for downward correction, and the short - term structure is unclear, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [20] PTA - Logic: Short - term supply - demand changes are not significant, inventory levels are not high, and short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. However, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline significantly, and it mainly fluctuates with crude oil [22] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today for downward correction, and the short - term structure is unclear, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22] PP - Logic: Downstream demand is sluggish, supply - side start - up fluctuates slightly, but previously shut - down devices will gradually restart, and new production capacity will be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to remain. Inventories continue to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [24] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fluctuated within the day today, and the hourly cycle is close to breaking through but has not been confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [24] Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply is at a high level compared to the same period, downstream demand is weak, short - term arrivals are normal, port inventories continue to accumulate, and overseas Iranian device start - up is stable. The short - term fundamentals are average. Attention should be paid to cost and recent sentiment drivers [29] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term decline/shock on the daily level, short - term decline structure. It fell with reduced positions today, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29] PVC - Logic: Supply has increased, demand remains sluggish during the off - season, inventories continue to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force remains bearish. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [31] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term upward structure on the daily level, short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It broke through downward with increased positions today, and the short - term trend reversal was confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Start - up has slightly decreased, demand is weak, port inventories fluctuate at a low level, and there are both short - term low - inventory and medium - term inventory - accumulation expectations. The fundamental driving force is weak. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [33] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today, and the hourly - level structure is unclear, but the 15 - minute level confirmed a decline. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [33] Plastic - Logic: Shut - down devices gradually restarted in late July, start - up has increased, downstream overall start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the delivery logic as the 09 basis weakens. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [37] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, shock structure on the hourly level. It fluctuated within the day today, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It has followed market sentiment recently. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products, including significant price movements in rapeseed meal and cotton, and provides trading strategies for each product based on market fundamentals and technical analysis [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Rapeseed meal rebounded significantly due to unhelpful Sino - US economic and trade talks for soybean imports and the peak season of aquaculture demand [1]. - Cotton continued to decline as Xinjiang had a good harvest outlook and downstream demand was weak [1]. - Sugar reversed and tumbled because of concerns about increased sugar imports and a large number of long - position liquidations [1]. - Soybean oil fluctuated upwards, stimulated by the news of Chinese soybean oil exports to India [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal - Both rapeseed meal and soybean meal rose. The Sino - US economic and trade talks and the aquaculture peak season boosted prices. Rapeseed meal inventory decreased to 66.54 million tons by the 30th week, and soybean meal downstream enterprises restocked at low prices [2]. - For rapeseed meal 2509 contract, take a light - long position, with support at 2661 and resistance at 2750. For soybean meal 2509 contract, close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2980 and resistance at 3036 [4]. 3.2.2 Cotton - Cotton 2509 contract continued to fall due to high - yield expectations and weak downstream demand. Xinjiang cotton growth was good, and the textile industry was in a slack season [6][7]. - Take a light - short position, with support at 13610 and resistance at 13770 [7]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Soybean oil 2509 contract continued to rise after a sharp increase the previous day, as China sold discounted soybean oil to India, boosting market sentiment [8]. - Take a light - long position, with support at 8180 and resistance at 8300 [11]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil - Palm oil 2509 contract oscillated upwards. International crude oil price increases and a weakening Malaysian ringgit provided support, although Malaysian exports decreased. Domestic demand was stable [12]. - Take a light - long position, with support at 8900 and resistance at 9050 [12]. 3.2.5 Live Pigs - Live pigs 2509 contract oscillated downwards. There was an increase in supply from farmers and weak demand due to high temperatures and less consumption [14]. - Take a light - short position, with support at 13930 and resistance at 14220 [14]. 3.2.6 Corn - Corn 2509 contract oscillated and closed positive, showing a sideways trend. There were both supply - increasing and supply - decreasing factors in the market [16]. - Close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2300 and resistance at 2316 [16]. 3.2.7 Sugar - Sugar 2509 contract tumbled. Analysts expected an increase in Brazilian sugar production, and there were concerns about increased domestic sugar imports, leading to long - position liquidations [18]. - Close long positions and take a light - short position, with support at 5790 and resistance at 5840 [18]. 3.2.8 Eggs - Eggs 2509 contract oscillated downwards. There was high egg - laying hen inventory and slow capacity reduction on the supply side, and delayed seasonal demand on the demand side [21]. - Take a light - short position, with support at 3550 and resistance at 3597 [21]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Red dates 2601 contract oscillated upwards. The estimated new - date production was 56 - 62 million tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease. The market was still debating the extent of the production cut [22]. - Take a light - long position, with support at 10650 and resistance at 10950 [24]. 3.2.10 Apples - Apples 2510 contract oscillated downwards. Storage merchants were eager to sell, and the quality of early - maturing apples was not good [25]. - Take a light - short - term short position, with support at 7857 and resistance at 7969 [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The 7th Politburo meeting fell short of expectations, with no incremental policies and a possible intention to correct the "low - price" competition issue. After the meeting announcement, the commodity sentiment cooled down, and the energy - chemical sector diverged from crude oil again. Crude oil was short - term strong overnight due to Trump's threat of sanctions against Russia, but the fundamental supply pressure of OPEC+ is increasing, and the North American peak season is ending [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: Trump's remarks on pressuring Russia boosted oil prices short - term. However, OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, with supply pressure soaring in the third quarter. The North American peak season from June to August is ending, and the off - season is approaching. US refined oil has been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, and crude oil will also shift from low inventory to inventory accumulation [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term rising structure. After increasing positions and breaking through the upper edge of the oscillatory range, the short - term structure is considered rising. The short - term support below is at the 514 level. The strategy for the hourly cycle is to wait and see [2]. 2. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Supply and production are increasing, port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the total inventory is at a historical high compared to the same period. The actual demand has not improved, and new device production is approaching, so the fundamental driving force is bearish [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of styrene shows a short - term declining structure. After rising and then falling today, the hourly form is bearish. There is an opportunity to try short - selling, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: Although the previous precipitation in Hainan and Southeast Asia delayed the supply increase, with the new typhoon moving north, supply increase is still a certain path. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level production is difficult to sustain. The current rubber inventory is also high compared to the same period, so the fundamental driving force is bearish [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of rubber shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level shows a short - term declining structure. After rising and then falling today, the hourly - level decline is confirmed. The upper pressure is at the 15120 level. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss referring to the 15120 level [10]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - side device production is increasing, and the output of synthetic rubber has significantly rebounded. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level production is difficult to sustain. The recent arrival volume of butadiene at the port is low, providing some support, but the medium - term fundamental pressure of synthetic rubber is still large [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, the hourly - level decline is confirmed. The upper pressure is at the 11950 level. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss referring to the 11950 level [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The polyester production is continuing to decline, the demand expectation is pessimistic, the supply production is rising, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The cost - end crude oil still has a large expected decline and mainly follows the crude oil fluctuations [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PX shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [18]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: The short - term supply - demand change is small, the inventory level is not high, and there is no major short - term fundamental contradiction. However, the cost - end crude oil still has a large expected decline and mainly follows the crude oil fluctuations [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PTA shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [21]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The downstream demand is sluggish, the supply - side production fluctuates slightly, but the previously overhauled devices will gradually restart and new production capacity will be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to continue. The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PP shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [25]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic supply is at a high level compared to the same period, the downstream demand is weak, the short - term arrival volume is normal, the port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the overseas Iranian device production is stable. The short - term fundamentals are average. Attention should be paid to the cost - end and recent sentiment drivers [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of methanol shows a medium - term decline/oscillation, and the short - term shows a declining structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the morning hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [27]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: The supply is increasing, the demand in the off - season is continuously sluggish, the inventory is continuously accumulating, the fundamental driving force is still bearish, and the anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward movement has significantly cooled down today. It should be treated bearishly [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of PVC shows a medium - term rising structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the morning hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [30]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The production has slightly decreased, the demand is weak, the port inventory fluctuates at a low level, and there are both short - term low - inventory and medium - term inventory - accumulation expectations. The fundamental driving force is weak. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward movement has significantly cooled down today. It should be treated bearishly [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of EG shows a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [33]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The overhauled devices will gradually restart in late July, the production is rising, the overall downstream demand is at a low level compared to the same period, the demand is weak, and the basis of 09 is weakening. Attention should be paid to the delivery logic. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward movement has significantly cooled down today. It should be treated bearishly [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of plastic shows a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level shows an oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Cotton is in a downward trend due to good harvest expectations and weak downstream demand, while soybean oil has risen strongly, driven by the increase in international crude oil prices and export news. Apple prices have declined, and soybean meal remains in a downward trend. Other products such as palm oil, sugar, and jujube show different price movements based on various influencing factors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Cotton has reversed and fallen into a downward trend because of good weather in Xinjiang's cotton - growing areas, increasing harvest expectations, and weak downstream demand. Soybean oil has risen strongly, boosted by the increase in international crude oil prices and export news. Apple has declined, and soybean meal is still in a downward trend due to abundant imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Cotton - Focus: The main 2509 contract of cotton has fallen sharply, accelerating the downward trend, pressured by the expected bumper harvest of new cotton and weak downstream demand. - Reason: In Xinjiang, the cotton growth situation is good, with an expected bumper harvest. The downstream textile industry is in the off - season, with insufficient orders, slow production and sales, and increased finished - product inventory, reducing the purchasing willingness for cotton. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has broken through key levels, with a MACD dead - cross and enlarged green bars. - Strategy: Sell on rallies. The support for the 2509 contract is 13760, and the resistance is 13980 [2]. (2) Soybean Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil has risen strongly, reaching a new stage high, boosted by the increase in crude oil prices and export news. - Reason: The sharp rebound of international crude oil has boosted the oil market. There are news of soybean oil export orders in the domestic market, which may relieve inventory pressure. However, as of the 30th weekend, the domestic soybean oil inventory was 126.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.11% and a year - on - year increase of 0.53%. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has reached a new high this year, with all moving averages in a bullish arrangement and an enlarged MACD red bar. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 8116, and the resistance is 8280 [3]. (3) Soybean Meal - Focus: The 2509 contract of soybean meal has continued to fall, maintaining a downward trend. - Reason: Good weather in the US soybean - growing areas has led to expectations of a bumper harvest, causing a sharp decline in US soybeans and driving down the price of domestic soybean meal. The import of soybeans may improve due to the Sino - US economic and trade talks. As of the 30th weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 107.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.34%. It is expected that the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills in July will reach about 10 million tons. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has fallen below the 60 - day moving average, remaining in a downward trend. - Strategy: Go short with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 2960, and the resistance is 2995 [5]. (4) Palm Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of palm oil has first declined and then risen, showing a relatively strong performance, boosted by the increase in crude oil prices. - Reason: The sharp rebound of international crude oil has increased the attractiveness of palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. Indonesia's inventory is at a low level, and the monthly consumption of palm oil in the biodiesel sector exceeds one million tons. In Malaysia, from July 1 - 25, palm oil production increased by 5.52% month - on - month, while exports decreased by 9 - 15% month - on - month. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has a long lower - shadow阳线, with all moving averages in a bullish arrangement. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 8900, and the resistance is 9050 [7]. (5) Live Pigs - Focus: The 2509 contract of live pigs has had a small rebound but closed with a long negative line, showing a weak trend. - Reason: Recently, the slaughter sentiment of the breeding side has been strong, and the supply of live pigs in the market is abundant. The demand side is weak, affected by high - temperature weather, the summer vacation, and alternative consumption. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has closed with a negative line, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average. - Strategy: Close long positions and go short with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 14025, and the resistance is 14255 [9]. (6) Corn - Focus: The main 2509 contract of corn has oscillated and fallen, showing a weak trend. - Reason: The continuous auction of imported corn by CGS, the substitution advantage of wheat in some areas, the listing of spring corn, and the high - temperature and humid weather have increased the supply pressure on corn. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has oscillated and fallen, with the price below the moving - average system. - Strategy: Go short with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 2280, and the resistance is 2300 [11]. (7) Sugar - Focus: The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has risen strongly, recovering most of the previous day's decline, boosted by the rise in the external market and the domestic peak - demand season. - Reason: The rebound of the external raw - sugar futures price has driven up Zhengzhou sugar. The domestic sugar sales rate is relatively fast, and it is currently in the summer consumption peak season, with low inventory further reduced. Although the import of sugar has increased, it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has risen strongly, with the price above the moving - average system and a continuous MACD red bar. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 5841, and the resistance is 5893 [15]. (8) Eggs - Focus: The main 2509 contract of eggs has first declined and then risen, closing with a positive line but remaining in a downward trend. - Reason: The supply side has a high inventory of laying hens, slow capacity reduction, and cautious purchasing by traders. The demand side has a delayed seasonal peak and general demand. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has opened low and closed high, but the price is still below the moving - average system. - Strategy: Go short with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 3550, and the resistance is 3600 [16][18]. (9) Jujubes - Focus: The main 2601 contract of jujubes has oscillated and risen, showing a relatively strong performance. - Reason: Xinjiang's jujube trees are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The estimated new - jujube output is 56 - 62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20 - 25% and a 5 - 10% decrease compared to normal years. The consumption side is in the traditional off - season, but consumption is expected to improve over time. - Technical analysis: The 2601 contract has oscillated and risen, with the price above the moving - average system. - Strategy: Go long on dips. The support for the 2601 contract is 10605, and the resistance is 10900 [19]. (10) Apples - Focus: The main 2510 contract of apples has fallen sharply after a violent oscillation the previous day, showing a weakening trend. - Reason: The inventory of apples is limited, and storage merchants are increasing sales. The listing volume of early - maturing apples has increased, with problems such as slow coloring and serious green - returning in some areas, leading to continuous price drops. - Technical analysis: The 2510 contract has fallen sharply, breaking below the 10 - day moving average. - Strategy: Close long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average. The support for the 2510 contract is 7848, and the resistance is 7930 [21].