Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil price continues to decline due to increased production and inventory expectations, weak downstream demand, and increased domestic imports [1][2]. - The cotton price rebounds due to the expected Sino - US tariff agreement, but the weak downstream demand limits the rebound [1][17]. - The soybean meal price fluctuates narrowly, and there is a downward pressure due to the expected increase in supply after the arrival of imported soybeans [1][7]. Group 3: Summary of Each Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil 2509 contract expands its decline, with strong supply and weak demand in the origin. The production in Malaysia in April increased by 17% - 25%, and it is expected to increase by 60% at the beginning of May, while the export only increased by 3% - 5%. Domestic purchases are increasing, and the demand is suppressed by the inverted soybean - palm oil price difference. The strategy is to hold a light - short position, with support at 7850 and resistance at 7974 [2]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil 2509 contract rebounds. There is a post - holiday restocking demand, and the short - term supply is tight. But the supply will improve as the oil mill's operating rate rises. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 7738 and resistance at 7812 [3]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly and remains in a downward trend. The Sino - US meeting news boosts US soybeans, but the expected increase in supply after the arrival of imported soybeans limits the rebound. The strategy is to hold a light - short position, with support at 2896 and resistance at 2930 [4][7]. Corn - The corn 2507 contract rises and then falls, with high - level fluctuations. The low remaining grain in the producing area, strong downstream demand, and falling port inventory support the price. The strategy is to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 2365 and resistance at 2400 [8]. Live Pigs - The live pigs 2509 contract rebounds slightly but the downward trend remains. The high inventory in the breeding end and weak demand after the May Day holiday lead to this situation. The strategy is to go short with a light position on rallies, with support at 13900 and resistance at 14050 [10]. Sugar - The sugar 2509 contract declines in a volatile manner. The expected increase in production in Brazil and Thailand, falling international raw sugar prices, and the opening of the domestic import profit window lead to a weak trend. The strategy is to hold a light - short position, with support at 5856 and resistance at 5912 [13]. Eggs - The eggs 2506 contract rebounds slightly after a sharp decline, but the downward trend remains. The high egg - laying hen inventory, slow culling progress, and weak demand after the May Day holiday cause this. The strategy is to hold a light - short position, with support at 2880 and resistance at 2902 [14][18]. Cotton - The cotton 2509 contract rebounds due to the expected Sino - US tariff agreement, but the weak downstream demand limits the rebound. The strategy is to close short positions, and go long if the price stabilizes above the 20 - day moving average, with support at 12700 and resistance at 13000 [17]. Apples - The apples 2510 contract declines in a volatile manner. Although the low cold - storage inventory and possible autumn production reduction support the price, the limited upward momentum and active long - position closing lead to a weak trend. The strategy is to close long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average, with support at 7820 and resistance at 7930 [19]. Soybean No. 1 - The soybean No. 1 2507 contract continues to rebound. The low remaining domestic soybeans and rising local prices drive the futures price up. The strategy is to hold a light - long position, with support at 4204 and resistance at 4300 [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Crude oil's three major medium - term drivers (supply - demand, macro, and geopolitics) remain bearish, with no sign of reversal. OPEC+ accelerating production increases exacerbates the supply - surplus expectation and increases the medium - and long - term downward pressure on crude oil. Geopolitical factors related to Iran may be a potential short - term variable. For trading strategies, pre - holiday short positions can lower the stop - profit to the high of the day, and after stop - profit, wait for a rebound to go short instead of chasing the short [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Sector - Crude oil has increased positions and retraced to the previous low. Most energy and chemical products have followed the trend in the past two days. Urea and caustic soda, which have relatively independent trends today, have a short - term bullish structure, while rubber is still seen as a rebound [3]. Crude Oil - **Weekly Fundamental View**: OPEC+ accelerating production increases exacerbates the supply - surplus pressure, which becomes the main medium - term downward driver. Pay attention to whether there are changes in Iranian geopolitical factors in the short term [5]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: Crude oil has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and reached a new low today, continuing the downward path, with the upper pressure reference at the 480 level. Pre - holiday remaining short positions can still be held, and the stop - profit can be lowered to the high of the day [5]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Styrene - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It decreased positions and declined today, continuing the downward path on the hourly cycle. The pressure reference is the high on April 29. Pre - holiday short positions can lower the stop - profit to the high on April 29 [9]. PX - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It decreased positions and declined with crude oil today. There is no signal on the hourly level, and it turned bearish first on the 15 - minute level. The 15 - minute pressure reference is the high on April 30. The strategy is to go short when it fails to break through the pressure on the hourly cycle [10]. PTA - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Technically, it increased positions and declined today, breaking below the support of the low on the night of April 25. The hourly cycle turned bearish again. The new pressure level to focus on is the high on April 30. The strategy is to go short when it fails to break through the pressure [13]. PP - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and declined today, continuing the short - term downward path. Pre - holiday remaining short positions can still be held, and the stop - profit can be lowered to the high on April 30 [17]. Urea - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The pre - holiday rumor of export liberalization pushed the futures price to reverse in the short term, but it has not been confirmed. The peak agricultural demand season is over, and there is a possibility of export relaxation, but port inventory verification is still needed. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Technically, it increased positions and rose today. After the short - term structure reversed before the holiday, the new short - term support reference is the low on April 30. The strategy is to consider going long when it does not break through the support [21]. Methanol - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The explosion in the container area of Abbas Port in Iran before the holiday had limited impact. With the resumption of Iranian plant operations, the shipping speed of Middle - East methanol has accelerated, and the import pressure will gradually become prominent. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the hourly level. Technically, it increased positions and reached a new low today, continuing the downward path on the hourly cycle. The pressure level still refers to the high on April 28. The strategy is to look for a reversal pattern when it fails to break through the pressure level on the hourly cycle and go short [24]. Rubber - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The high tire inventory has led to a decline in the tire operating rate. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires has dropped by 6.2%. However, the futures price has already fully reflected this. The current divergence lies in the verification of the output after the Southeast Asian rubber tapping season. The macro - demand expectation is bearish and difficult to improve. Pay attention to whether there are any abnormalities in the Southeast Asian weather in the short term. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term oscillating structure on the hourly level. Technically, it decreased positions and rebounded today, but in the long run, it is still in an oscillating pattern. The upper pressure still refers to the high on April 8. Recently, it has been doing an oversold repair through narrow - range oscillation by trading time for space. There is no trading opportunity for now [25]. Caustic Soda - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It broke through the short - term pressure level of the high on April 25 today, and the short - term structure has reversed. The pre - holiday short positions should stop the loss [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and declined today, and the short - term pressure and stop - profit level are lowered to the high on April 30 [32]. Plastic - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and declined today, continuing the downward path. The pressure level is lowered to the high on April 30. Short positions can be held, and the stop - profit refers to the high on April 2 [33].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View After the May Day holiday, the oil and fat sector continued to decline, with palm oil leading the drop. The egg price gap dropped, and the apple price fluctuated greatly. Different agricultural products showed different trends due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to decline after May Day. The production in the palm oil - producing areas increased smoothly, and the inventory was expected to rise. The domestic purchase volume increased and the cost decreased. Technical indicators showed weakness. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7880 and resistance at 8000 [3][4] (2) Soybean Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined. The external market price dropped, and the domestic supply was expected to improve. Technical indicators turned weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7714 and resistance at 7742 [5] (3) Soybean Meal - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to decline with oscillations. The external market price was under pressure, and the domestic supply was expected to increase. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2930 [7] (4) Corn - Key points: The main 2507 contract of corn rose first and then fell with oscillations, but the upward trend remained unchanged. Factors such as low remaining grain, reduced imports, and increased demand supported the price. Technical indicators were strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position at low prices, with support at 2358 and resistance at 2384 [9] (5) Live Pigs - Key points: The 2509 contract of live pigs first declined and then rose with oscillations, but the downward trend remained. The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was insufficient. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position at high prices, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [12] (6) Sugar - Key points: The main 2509 contract of sugar opened low and closed high with oscillations. Good sales and approaching peak consumption season supported the price. The price was still under the moving - average pressure. The recommended strategy was short - term trading, with support at 5866 and resistance at 5900 [13][15] (7) Eggs - Key points: The main 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline with a large gap. The supply was sufficient, and the demand decreased during the holiday. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [16] (8) Cotton - Key points: The main 2509 contract of cotton opened high and closed low. The textile industry entered the off - season, and the demand was weak. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 12600 and resistance at 12800 [18] (9) Apples - Key points: The main 2510 contract of apples opened high and closed low with large fluctuations, but the upward trend remained. Good sales during the holiday, low inventory, and possible yield reduction supported the price. Technical indicators showed an upward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a long position at low prices, with support at 7908 and resistance at 8000 [22] (10) Soybean No.1 - Key points: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded. The reduction of remaining grain supported the price. Technical indicators turned strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position, with support at 4176 and resistance at 4246 [23][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. The overall situation is that the oil and meal sectors are declining, the pig price is dropping, the corn price is expected to be strong, and different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The supply - demand in the palm oil producing areas is increasing, but the supply - side pressure is greater. High - frequency data shows that the production in Malaysia from April 1 - 20 increased by 9% - 20%, and the export from April 1 - 25 increased by 3% - 15%. The market expects the MPOB to raise the inventory in May. The lack of progress in Indonesia's B40 policy weakens consumer confidence. The domestic import profit is repaired, and the increase in supply expectations and weak demand pressure the price [1][2]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the downside, the MACD red column shrinks, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 8100, and the resistance is 8170 [3]. (2) Soybean Oil - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China increases the supply expectation. The total import volume in the second quarter may reach 4150 tons, doubling that of the first quarter. It is expected that the oil mill's operating rate will continue to rise after May Day, and the tight supply situation will be alleviated [4]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 falls below most moving averages, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 7756, and the resistance is 7814 [4]. (3) Soybean Meal - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The downstream market's acceptance of high - priced soybean meal decreases, the spot price drops, and the trading volume plummets. With the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the oil mill's operating rate will increase, and the supply is expected to improve [6]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 has three consecutive declines, the MACD green column expands significantly, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 2928, and the resistance is 2990 [6]. (4) Corn - The main contract 2507 rises and then falls. After continuous price increases, there is profit - taking by long - positions. However, the remaining grain in the domestic main production areas is low, the drought in the wheat - producing areas raises the wheat price, reducing its substitution advantage for corn. The significant decrease in corn imports also supports the price [8]. - Technically, the main contract 2507 is still above the moving averages, the MACD red column expands, and the strategy is to go long at low positions. The support is 2350, and the resistance is 2370 [8]. (5) Live Pigs - The main contract 2509 continues to decline significantly. The breeding side accelerates the slaughter rhythm due to the inverted standard - fat price difference, increasing the supply. The downstream demand lacks increment, and the difficulty of selling white - striped pigs in the wholesale market pressures the price [11]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the downside, the MACD green column expands, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 13800, and the resistance is 14000 [11]. (6) Sugar - The main contract 2509 gaps down. The increase in sugar production in Thailand and Brazil pressures the international ICE raw sugar price. The rainfall in Guangxi, China, eases the drought, and the opening of the additional import profit window may increase the import pressure [12][13][15]. - The strategy is to close long positions. The support is 5887, and the resistance is 5997 [15]. (7) Eggs - The main contract 2506 has a narrow - range oscillation, and the main trend is still weak. The May Day stocking is basically over, the market trading slows down, and the inventory increases. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level and will continue to grow [16]. - Technically, the main contract 2506 is still pressured by the short - term moving averages, the MACD shows a dead - cross sign, and the strategy is to go short at high positions. The support is 2960, and the resistance is 2998 [16]. (8) Cotton - The main contract 2509 breaks through the downside. The "Golden March and Silver April" season in the domestic textile industry is ending, the new orders are low, the sales slow down, and the inventory increases. The new cotton sowing progresses rapidly, and the climate in Xinjiang is favorable, with a sowing progress of 78.3% [18]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the moving averages, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 12700, and the resistance is 12900 [18]. (9) Apples - The main contract 2510 rebounds after a decline and remains at a high level. The May Day stocking is ending, the market in the production area is stable, the inventory is low (309.98 million tons as of April 24), and the sales in the sales area are stable [20]. - The strategy is to hold long positions. The support is 7886, and the resistance is 8070 [20]. (10) Soybeans (Domestic) - The main contract 2507 declines continuously. The decline of imported soybean prices drags down domestic soybeans, and the demand in the sales area is weak. The shift of the imported soybean supply to a loose situation weakens the long - position sentiment [23]. - Technically, the main contract 2507 approaches the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average and go short if it is broken. The support is 4150, and the resistance is 4208 [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Crude oil's medium - term drivers (supply - demand, macro, and geopolitics) still point downward, with a bearish outlook. Short - term upward repair is limited, and the medium - to long - term oversupply pattern persists. During the May Day holiday, there is a high probability of a decline in crude oil prices, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the holiday or use some options instead [1]. - For the energy and chemical sector, profitable positions can be partially liquidated before the holiday, and for those that have exited, wait for post - holiday opportunities [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Weekly Fundamental View**: Kazakhstan prioritizes national interests over OPEC+ interests, and some OPEC+ members want to accelerate production increase in June, leading to an expected supply surplus [4]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a long - negative candlestick with reduced positions today, the downward structure is further confirmed, but there may be short - term fluctuations. The upper pressure is around 499. Last week's short positions can still be held, with the stop - profit moved down to today's high, and partial positions can be exited before the holiday. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying options after the implied volatility drops [4]. Styrene - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both weak, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase while the inventory is high, resulting in a bearish fundamental outlook [7]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward path continues. The pressure is the high on April 23, and the stop - loss for last week's short positions still refers to the high on April 25. Partial positions can be liquidated before the holiday [7]. PX - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The terminal textile demand is weak, and the polyester production at a high level is under pressure to decline [11]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fell with crude oil today, with no signal at the hourly - level but a downward turn at the 15 - minute level. The pressure is the high on April 8. The strategy is to short on the reversal pattern without breaking through the pressure, but it is not recommended to open new positions before the holiday [11]. PTA - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - term demand is under pressure due to high tariffs on textiles in the US [14]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fell with reduced positions today but did not break below the low on the night of April 25. There is no opportunity to enter short positions again for now [14]. PP - **Weekly Fundamental View**: PP enters the maintenance season from late April to May, with a decline in the operating rate expected. The demand is under pressure due to the end of the peak season and export tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. The fundamentals are bearish [17]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward trend remains. Last week's short positions can still be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 16, and partial positions can be liquidated before the holiday [17]. Urea - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The restart of short - term shutdown devices will maintain a high supply, while the summer fertilizer preparation demand has not started, and the export policy is tight. The short - term supply is strong and the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook [21]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low with increased positions today, the trend remains unchanged. Last week's short positions can continue to be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 18, and partial profit - taking can be done before the holiday [21]. Methanol - **Weekly Fundamental View**: Due to tariff pressure, the export demand of methanol's downstream products is weak, and the demand has declined significantly. Although there are maintenance of inland devices, the supply is expected to increase. The supply and demand are weak, with a bearish outlook [22]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a decline with reduced positions today, the downward trend remains. The pressure level refers to the high on April 7. The strategy is to short on the reversal pattern without breaking through the pressure, but there is no good opportunity to open new positions before the holiday [24]. Rubber - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The weekly fundamentals change little, and it follows the tariff sentiment. The spot price above 15,000 is at a high level in recent years. After the Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season, the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic tire inventory is high, and the substitution of synthetic rubber for natural rubber is expected to increase. The medium - term outlook is bearish [25]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, it is in a narrow - range oscillation for oversold repair. There is no opportunity after the previous short positions took profit [25]. Caustic Soda - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward path remains. Last week's short positions can still be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 25 [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, there is no signal of trend reversal. The short - term pressure level is the high on April 7. After the previous short positions took profit last week, it is recommended to wait and see [29][32]. Plastic - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The peak season of agricultural film is over, the demand is weak, and the supply remains high. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook [33]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward path continues. The pressure level is the high on April 7. Short positions can be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 23, and partial profit - taking can be done before the holiday [33].

本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 28 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者： 金海东 从业资格号: F03088653 交易咨询从业资格号：Z0016875 原油盘面仍然偏弱,注意假期内时间节点 天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 摘要: 原油中期三大驱动:供需、宏观、地缘目前均未看到反转,仍指 向下方,偏空看待。短期市场经过海外风险偏好的改善。原油随风险 资产有一定上行修复,但对关税战的判断仍是短期中美不会有缓和出 现。本周美国一系列经济数据公布将逐步反应关税影响,如数据走弱, 宏观衰退逻辑或重新回归。此外在哈萨克斯坦对原油产量的表态减弱 了补偿减产协议的最终执行效果。供应压力或进一步提前,原油市场 中长期过剩格局依然存在。 关键时间节点上,五一假期中除了美国一系列经济数据公布,5 月 3 日美伊的第四轮谈判,5 月 5 日 OPEC+会议也可能从供应端形成 新的驱动。目前看伊朗有达成协议的意愿, OPEC+也 ...

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 25 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 此外围绕伊朗的中东地缘方面,目前美伊两轮会谈结束,谈判未 破裂,同时有特朗普否决以色列对伊朗设施的袭击,短期地缘暂未被 交易,但对伊朗有新一轮制裁,仍需需跟踪美伊谈判进展,本周末将 有第三轮谈判。如果谈判结果较差,未来地缘影响加大的时间节点在 5 月初(特朗普给伊朗信件并提出的两个月内达成新核协议的最后期 限）。 板块综述 原油日内震荡,仍是不过压力逢高空思路。能化各品种今日总体 仍弱于原油,eb 再有试空机会，橡胶虽然收盘价变化不大，但冲高 回落下, 小时周期打到止盈,按计划离场。部分品种: px、pta、eg 前日止损止盈后需寻找新的进场机会,未止损的品种:PP、尿素、塑 料空单仍能持有。 (一) 原油: 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者： 金海东 从业资格号: F03088653 交易咨询从业资格号：Z0016875 原油阶段性反 ...

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 25 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华 从业资格号：F03088692 交易咨询资格证号：Z0016646 油脂偏强、豆粕下挫 一、农产品板块综述 油脂持续强势上行,美国生物柴油需求超预期增长,推动 CBOT 豆油持续大涨,带动油脂集体走高,国内油厂开机率偏低,豆油阶段 性供应偏紧亦助推行情走高。豆粕下挫,受到进口大豆集中到港,油 厂开机率将逐渐回升,供应增加预期升温,且现货豆粕高价抑制下游 消费,施压豆粕期价走低。苹果强势大涨,产区交易活跃,走货顺畅, 库存偏低支撑苹果期价持续劲升。花生持续走高，产区上货量不多、 油厂收购价上调、油脂板块走高等带动花生走强。 内油脂走高。 2. 国内进口大豆清关速度缓慢,油厂开机率偏低,造成豆油阶 段性现货紧张,豆油库存已降至多年同期最低水平。叠加下游正值五 一备货,豆油现货成交放量,支撑豆油价格。 ...

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 24 日 18:00 来源： 公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章未尾免责声明 交易咨询从业资格号： Z0016875 供应主线再度回归,原油阶段性反弹或告- 段落 摘要: 此前在特朗普对关税示弱后原油随风险资产反弹,但昨夜供应端 作者： 金海东 人亚资格号： F03088653 再出现增产消息：OPEC+6 月加速增产以及哈萨克斯坦能源不足表示 在石油生产上国家利益优先于 OPEC+利益。意外着此前 OPEC+补偿 减产计划落地依然受阻，以及增产下各国对配额的遵守将再次受到质 疑。两次增产消息驱动隔夜油价跌破短期关键位，阶段性反弹或告一 段落。 税表态相似，或都是市场压力倒逼，如果参考此前暂缓关税后与日本 缓慢的谈判进展来看，关税方面的不确定性仍然较大。特朗普的示弱 暂时看作情绪改善，而非关税风险消失，不认为中美对抗会出现反转。 此外围绕伊朗的中东地缘方面，目前美伊两轮会谈结束，谈判 ...

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许字|2011|1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 24 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章未尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华从业证号：F03088692 交易咨询证号：Z0016646 玉米劲升、生猪重挫 一、农产品板块综述 玉米高位扩涨，基层余粮见底，持粮主体惜售，玉米上量有限， 进口量大幅下降，下游饲料需求回升，支撑玉米期价强势运行。生猪 大幅下跌，养殖端出栏增量，二育补栏成本上升，补栏体量显著下降， 生猪供应压力增大，施压猪价走跌。鸡蛋亦大幅下跌，养殖端蛋鸡存 栏高位，下游走货放缓，库存回升，鸡蛋价格承压下挫。豆类偏强运 行,进口大豆受到通关滞缓的影响,迟迟无法入油厂卸货,油厂开机 率持续偏低，豆油和豆粕产出下降，供应偏紧，支撑豆类行情走高。 但后续大豆将陆续入关，供应有望改善，涨幅或受限。 I 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 玉米： 强劲上扬 焦点关注：玉米主力 2507 合约高位强劲上扬，受到供应偏紧的 提振: 1 ...