021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 工业硅周报 成本倒挂加剧，工业硅持续下探 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅继续探底，虽然中美贸易战仍未平息，工业品 市场情绪偏弱，光伏产业供给侧改革对上游原料需求形成 持续性干扰。供应来看，新疆地区开工率回升至79%，川 滇地区开工率依然偏低，企业生产压力加大亏损面持续扩 大，供应端转入收缩；从需求侧来看，多晶硅抢装季节临 近尾声下游后市预期转向悲观，硅片价格竞争激烈成交困 难，光伏电池成本和需求支撑转弱细分市场出现价格分 化，组件市场分布式订单消费转弱头部企业降价倾销部分 销售价格已低至0.7元/瓦，集中式地面电站项目有序开工 但增量低于去年，虽然供应因成本倒挂转向收敛但终端消 费难表现出明显减速迹象，社会库存维持61.2万吨。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z001778 ...

2025 年 4 月 21 日 房地产平稳为主 期价震荡走势 钢材周报 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 宏观面：国务院总理李强4月18日主持召开国务院常 务会议，研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举 措。要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康 发展。1-3月份，全国房地产开发投资19904亿元，同 比下降9.9%。房地产开发企业房屋施工面积613705万 平方米，同比下降9.5%。房屋 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 海外方面，特朗普关税谈判进展有限，欧盟谈判陷僵局、拟反制措施，特朗普仍称有信 心达成协议。特朗普亲自参与日美关税谈判但无实质进展，日媒表示仅同意续谈、立场分歧 明显。美国经济"软数据"仍在恶化，4 月费城联储制造业指数骤降至-26.4，创两年新低， 成本与售价预期上升，滞胀忧虑加剧。欧央行 4 月如期降息 25 基点，拉加德警告贸易不确 定性上升，欧元区复苏承压，通胀与需求前景转弱。美元指数在 99 上方震荡，美债利率回 升至 4.33%，美股涨跌互现，油价受供给推动涨幅超 3%，铜价震荡收涨，金价创新高后小 幅调整。 国内方面，"对外反制结盟友，对内稳增长稳预期"政策持续推进，习近平会见柬埔寨 人民党主席洪森，称中国将保持周边外交政策的延续性和稳定性，深化同周边国家友好合作； 李强：政策要早出手、快落地，把握时机与力度，必要时打破常规、打出组合拳，增强市场 获得感、稳住预期。地产、服务业政策预期为昨日股债博弈主线，A 股缩量收涨，地产、内 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250417 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：鲍威尔否认 Fed Put 可能性，国内二季度经济寻找新增长点 海外方面，美国 3 月零售销售月率录得 1.4%，预期 1.3%，创两年多来最大涨幅，主要 由汽车购买热潮驱动，目前美国硬数据尚可（零售、非农、CPI），但关税不确定性笼罩下 软数据持续走弱（消费者信心、通胀预期）。鲍威尔强调美联储无法抵消贸易战对经济造成 的冲击，短期内将观望数据再决策；勿指望美联储干预股市大跌，特朗普政策变动频繁，关 税超预期市场承压可以理解。美元指数震荡下行至 99.2，10Y 美债利率持续回落至 4.28%， 鲍威尔否认 Fed Put 后纳指跌幅超 3%，金价继续创下 3357 美元新高，外媒报道"中美贸易 谈判有望"提振铜、油价格。 国内方面，一季度 GDP 录得 5.4%，好于预期 5.0%；3 月抢出口带动生产强劲反弹， "以旧换新"提振社零增速，基建与制造业投资继续加速，地产投资降幅小幅扩大，然而 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US import prices in March declined more than expected, and the market is worried about inflation after the April reciprocal tariffs. Trump's tariff negotiations are progressing slowly, and the trade - war has led to a rise in gold prices and a fall in US stocks and some commodity prices. Domestically, the policy focuses on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, and the A - share market shows a shrinking - volume shock [2][3]. - Gold prices are strong due to risk - aversion demand and a weakening US dollar index. Copper prices are under pressure due to concerns about a global economic recession. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the near - term range. Alumina prices are in a multi - empty game and tend to stabilize and oscillate. Zinc prices are expected to remain in low - level consolidation. Lead prices will oscillate with limited one - sided drivers. Tin prices will oscillate with reduced capital attention. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weakly oscillating due to weak demand. Lithium carbonate prices will continue to oscillate in the short - term. Nickel prices will oscillate with cost support. Oil prices will continue to oscillate, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of spread convergence. Steel prices will oscillate due to weak supply and demand. Iron ore prices will oscillate with a loose inventory situation. Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate in the short - term and have a bullish medium - to - long - term outlook. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short - term and may weaken in the medium - to - long - term [4][6][8][10][12][13][14][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The US import prices in March declined more than expected due to the fall in energy product prices. Trump's tariff negotiations are slow. The EU expects the US not to revoke major tariffs, and Japan is not eager to reach an agreement. The trade - war has led to a rise in gold prices, a fall in US stocks, and a decline in the 10Y US Treasury yield, oil prices, and copper prices. Attention is paid to the US March retail data [2]. - Domestic: The policy focuses on "countering externally by allying and stabilizing growth and expectations internally". The A - share market shows a shrinking - volume shock, and the daily - use chemical and domestic - demand industries lead the rise. Attention is paid to the market trading volume and the first - quarter reports of listed companies, as well as China's first - quarter economic data [3]. Precious Metals - On Tuesday, international precious - metal futures prices rose slightly. COMEX gold futures rose 0.64% to $3246.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.43% to $32.305 per ounce. Gold prices are supported by risk - aversion demand and a weakening US dollar index. The market expects the Fed to restart rate cuts in June and cut the policy rate by 100 basis points this year. Attention is paid to Fed Chairman Powell's speech [4][5]. Copper - On Tuesday, the Shanghai copper main contract 2505 declined under pressure. The high - tariff policy may impact the global economy in the short - term, and the market may shift to a global economic recession expectation. The first - quarter import of unforged copper and copper products in China decreased by 5.2% year - on - year. The copper price rebound may be near the end, and it is expected to enter a weak oscillation in the short - term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Tuesday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 19,670 yuan per ton, up 0.31%. The market is cautious about Trump's tariff policy. The downstream consumption is stable, and the supply is rigid. The aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, but there are concerns about exports and consumption. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the near - term range [8][9]. Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures main contract fell 1.87% to 2786 yuan per ton. The cost side provides support, but the current inventory is high, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The market is in a multi - empty game, and alumina prices have limited upward space in the short - term [10][11]. Zinc - On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc main contract ZN2506 oscillated weakly. The spot market trading is not improved, and the spot premium is decreasing. The zinc ingot import window opens intermittently, and the supply - demand mismatch may be alleviated. Due to unclear tariff prospects and weak market risk preference, zinc prices are expected to remain in low - level consolidation in the short - term [12]. Lead - On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead main contract PB2505 oscillated. The supply of waste batteries is tight, and the profit of recycled lead is in deficit, with some production cuts. However, the lead - acid battery is in the off - season, and the demand is mainly for inventory digestion. Lead prices will oscillate in the short - term with limited one - sided drivers [13]. Tin - On Tuesday, the Shanghai tin main contract SN2505 oscillated. Indonesia's tin exports in March increased by 47.2% month - on - month. The supply of raw materials is less worried with the复产 of the Bisie tin mine in Congo, but the复产 of Wa State is uncertain. The demand is resilient, and tin prices will oscillate with reduced capital attention [14][15]. Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon main contract declined. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is high. The supply side is shrinking, but the demand side is weak, with high inventory in the polysilicon industry and weak demand in the photovoltaic industry. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate prices oscillated, and the spot price decreased slightly. The market has a long - buying sentiment, but the inventory is still high, and the fundamental improvement has not been realized. Lithium carbonate prices will continue to oscillate in the short - term [18]. Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices oscillated strongly. The cost logic may support nickel prices in the medium - term, but attention should be paid to the price fluctuations caused by profit - taking. Nickel prices will oscillate [19]. Crude Oil - On Tuesday, Shanghai crude oil oscillated. The price difference between Brent and WTI crude oil is out of the normal range. Although there is an over - supply expectation, the decline of US oil is limited. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of spread convergence [20]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The steel mill profits have declined, and the short - process losses have increased, leading to an increase in maintenance willingness. The real - estate demand is weak, and the external demand is under pressure. Steel prices will oscillate due to weak supply and demand [21]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The overseas shipment has increased this week, and the arrival volume has also increased. The growth rate of molten iron production has slowed down. The port inventory has decreased, but the overseas inventory has increased. Iron ore prices will oscillate with a loose inventory situation [22]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, the bean meal 05 contract fell 48 to 2910 yuan per ton, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 43 to 2584 yuan per ton. The US soybean crushing in March was lower than expected. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be strong. Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate in the short - term and have a bullish medium - to - long - term outlook [23][24]. Palm Oil - On Tuesday, the palm oil 05 contract fell 28 to 8720 yuan per ton. Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 15 days of April increased. Malaysia will maintain the 10% export tax on crude palm oil in May and lower the reference price. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short - term and may weaken in the medium - to - long - term [25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on the 11th exempted import tariffs for certain categories of goods, such as automatic data processors, computers, communication equipment, displays and modules, and semiconductor - related products, from "reciprocal tariffs". The State Council Tariff Commission raised the additional tariffs on US - originated imported goods from 84% to 125% starting April 12, 2025. If the US further imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, China will ignore it [2][5][11]. - Last week, steel production and sales declined, inventory decreased but the decline narrowed. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils dropped significantly, and the pattern of pressure on external demand remained unchanged. The Sino - US tariff conflict has temporarily ended, and the US has exempted some Chinese products from reciprocal tariffs. Subsequently, the two sides will enter the negotiation stage, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate and stabilize [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3131 | - 33 | - 1.04% | 12913972 | 2995110 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3242 | - 118 | - 3.51% | 4398093 | 1164621 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 708.0 | - 80.5 | - 10.21% | 2801968 | 481877 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 892.5 | - 108.5 | - 10.84% | 2364567 | 445365 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1522.0 | - 106.5 | - 6.54% | 156461 | 47275 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Steel futures fluctuated significantly last week. At the beginning of the week, prices weakened due to US tariff impacts, and then rebounded as the US tariff policy eased. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billets was 2970 (- 70) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3160 (- 70) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3250 (- 100) Yuan/ton [5]. - In terms of industry data, last week, rebar production was 232 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4 million tons; apparent demand was 252 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons; rebar factory inventory was 215 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons; social inventory was 564 million tons, a decrease of 27 million tons; total inventory was 778 million tons, a decrease of 20 million tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 313 million tons, a decrease of 9 million tons; factory inventory was 86 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons; social inventory was 298 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons; total inventory was 384 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons; apparent demand was 315 million tons, a decrease of 17 million tons [2][6]. 3.3 Industry News - The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on the 11th issued an updated tariff schedule, exempting the import tariffs of certain categories of goods from "reciprocal tariffs" [7]. - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff rate on US - originated imported goods from 84% to 125% starting April 12, 2025. If the US further imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, China will ignore it [11]. - From April 7th to 8th, multiple institutions such as the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and others expressed their confidence in the development prospects of the capital market and committed to maintaining its stable operation [11]. - Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs for over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10% [11]. - EU member states voted on the 9th to pass the first - round tariff counter - measures against the US, imposing up to 25% tariffs on a series of US products [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and their monthly spreads, basis trends, spot regional price differences, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [10][12][14]

碳酸锂周报 2024 年 4 月 14 日 基本面边际修正 锂价或有反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 基本面方面：国内锂盐周度供给连续走弱，4月初整车终 端销量尚可，但库存持续累库，基本面边际修正的迹象尚 不明显。而在关税政策扰动下，商品市场剧烈震荡，锂价 大幅下跌。 ⚫ 成本方面：报告期内，锂辉石价格小幅走弱，锂云母价格 相对平稳。 ⚫ 后期观点：基本面预期边际修正，锂价或有反弹 ...

豆粕周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 关税加剧市场波动 连粕震荡中枢上移 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆5月合约涨31.75收于1043.75美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅3.14%；豆粕05合约涨47收于2912元/吨，涨幅 1.64%；华南豆粕现货涨20收于3000元/吨，涨幅0.67%， 华北区域涨幅较大；菜粕05合约跌14收于2596元/吨，跌 幅0.54%；广西菜粕现货涨30收于2450元/吨，涨幅1.24%。 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责 ...

核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价大幅下跌。宏观面看，周中特朗普关税 政策大转弯，对数十个国家暂停征收对等关税 90 天。周 末"豁免了部分电子产品对等关税"，但随后又出现反转， 只是暂停征收，之后将转为其他税率。美国 3 月通胀超预 期回落，市场押注美联储 6 月降息，同时美联储官员释放 救市言论，市场避险情绪改善。国内官媒密集发声，稳股 市稳市场信心，市场期待政策加速出台。基本面看，CZSPT 发布了二季度进口锌精矿采购指导价为 70 -90 美元/干 吨。锌价高位回落，但炼厂利润未有太大冲击，提产驱动 不减。同时，沪伦比价回升，锌锭进口窗口开启，将缓解 现货紧张的情况。需求端看，终端补货稳定提振镀锌企业 排产，同时铁塔订单亮眼、关税缓冲期带动抢出口订单增 加，镀锌企业开工回升；节后企业复工且地产五金、汽配、 电子订单变现较好，压铸锌合金企业开工回升；终端各版 块订单改善，氧化锌企业开工环比小增。下游消费环比改 善，逢低采买积极性较高，带动周度去库 0.7 万吨。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 ...

李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 棕榈油周报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 原油拖累油脂市场 棕榈油震荡走弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主力跌276收于4214林吉特/吨，跌幅 6.15%；棕榈油05合约跌450收于8748元/吨，跌幅4.89%； 豆油05合约跌190收于7712元/吨，跌幅2.4%；菜油05合约 跌224收于9310元/吨，跌幅2.35%；CBOT美豆油主连涨0.68 收于 ...