贵金属周报 2025 年 4 月 21 日 关税政策反复，金价维持强势 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格继续维持强势运行，金价持续再创新高。 白银价格也持续反弹，站上32美元/盎司上方。关税政策 带来的不确定性令投资者纷纷转向避险资产黄金，美元指 数持续走弱，提振贵金属价格走势。 ⚫ 关税政策依然反复不定。11日，联邦政府发出通知，已同 意对智能手机、电脑、芯片等电子产品 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In terms of fundamentals, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in early April fell short of expectations, with a significant decline in year-on-year growth rate. The sales-to-production ratio of new energy vehicles remained low from January to March, and automakers still faced inventory pressure. Although downstream buyers were more active when lithium prices were low, the terminal consumption increment was limited, and the consumption transmission path was blocked, so the downstream buying enthusiasm lacked strong resilience [4]. - In terms of cost, the prices of spodumene and lepidolite remained stable during the reporting period [4]. - Regarding the later outlook, the demand increment was lower than expected, and the fundamentals lacked support. Although there was a possibility of a rebound from a technical perspective, high inventory still exerted pressure, and lithium prices would continue to fluctuate. Fundamentally, although there was an obvious contraction expectation on the supply side in April, the spot inventory continued to accumulate, the high-frequency consumption growth rate announced by the Passenger Car Association declined, and the sales-to-production ratio under the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' statistics remained low, so the demand increment was lower than expected, and the fundamentals lacked support. Technically, the trading volume increased significantly when lithium prices hit the bottom, indicating strong willingness of bulls to buy at the bottom. After lithium prices entered a shrinking and volatile phase, the 5-day moving average was about to cross above the 10-day moving average to form a golden cross, suggesting a possible rebound. Overall, the cost support logic remained, there was a rebound expectation from a technical perspective, but the bearish fundamental pattern continued, which might suppress the rebound, and lithium prices would generally remain volatile [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Data - The prices of imported lithium ore (1.3%-2.2%) and imported lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%) remained unchanged, while the price of domestic lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%) decreased by 0.55%. The spot prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, as well as the price of the lithium carbonate main contract, all increased slightly. The prices of battery-grade coarse-grained lithium hydroxide increased by 1.46%, while the price of fine-grained lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.13%. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.62%. The prices of lithium iron phosphate and cobalt acid lithium decreased by 3.21% and 0.94% respectively, while the prices of ternary materials (811 and 622) remained unchanged [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Last Week's Market Analysis** - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of April 18, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 29,562 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 72,280 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2507 was 153,000 lots [8]. - **Supply Side**: As of April 18, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,305 tons, a decrease of 190 tons from the previous period. Domestic lithium salt supply had shrunk significantly after the Spring Festival, and lithium salt plants were less willing to increase production at low prices. After the supply structure changed, high-cost salt plants might leave the market temporarily, and domestic supply was unlikely to recover significantly in the short term [8]. - **Imports**: In February, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 12,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 38.7% and a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Among them, 7,572 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for about 61%, a month-on-month decrease of 15.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 40%. 4,388 tons were imported from Argentina, a month-on-month decrease of 34.5% and a year-on-year increase of 77.3%. In March, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was about 23,000 tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 8% and 37% respectively. Among them, 16,600 tons were exported to China, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 3% and 38% respectively. Although Chile's shipping volume increased significantly in March, the low level in February would still drag down China's import volume in April. The supply side was still in a contraction phase and might improve in May driven by increased imports [8]. - **Lithium Ore Imports**: In February, about 567,100 tons of lithium ore were imported, a month-on-month decrease of 3.9%. Among them, 232,100 tons were imported from Australia, a month-on-month decrease of 32.0% and a year-on-year increase of 77.1%; 149,500 tons were imported from South Africa, a month-on-month decrease of 48.1%; 97,200 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month-on-month increase of 81.1%; and 46,600 tons were imported from Nigeria, a month-on-month increase of 18.5%. From the high-frequency shipping data, Australia's lithium ore shipping volume increased significantly in March, and about 90,000 tons of lithium ore were shipped to China in the second half of the month. As of April 3, the domestic lithium ore inventory was about 63,000 tons, at an absolute high level [9][10]. - **Demand Side** - **Positive Electrode Materials**: As of April 18, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 65,846 tons, with an operating rate of 60.98%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 38,318 tons, an increase of 166 tons. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,850 tons, with an operating rate of 45.79%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,755 tons, a decrease of 50 tons. During the reporting period, the prices of positive electrode materials were weak. Although the prices of iron phosphate and lithium were relatively stable and the nickel price increased significantly due to the expected policy disturbance in Indonesia, the prices of ternary positive electrodes still decreased slightly, indicating that the weak demand side dragged down the prices [11]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From April 1 to 13, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 275,000, a year-on-year increase of 15% compared with the same period in April last year and a month-on-month decrease of 17%. The new energy retail penetration rate was 53.3%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 2.695 million, a year-on-year increase of 34%. According to the high-frequency data of the Passenger Car Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was weak in early April, and the year-on-year growth rate declined significantly, dragging down the increase in the cumulative annual sales volume. Under the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales-to-production ratio of new energy vehicles from January to March improved slightly, but the improvement in terminal demand was limited, and automakers still faced inventory pressure. The demand transmission path was still relatively blocked. Multiple auto shows across the country will be held in late April, and attention should be paid to the stimulation of potential consumption by new technologies and new models [12]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 96,705 tons, a decrease of about 608 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 29,700 tons, an increase of 230 tons from the previous period, and the market inventory was 67,005 tons, a decrease of 838 tons from the previous period. Overall, the operating rate of downstream material plants increased slightly, the total lithium salt inventory remained low and the margin further narrowed, and the marginal improvement in fundamentals drove the spot inventory to decline. However, it should be noted that the terminal consumption intensity was limited, and the resilience of lithium salt inventory destocking needed to be considered [13]. - **This Week's Outlook**: The demand improvement was lower than expected, and lithium prices would continue to fluctuate. Although there was an obvious contraction expectation on the supply side in April, the spot inventory continued to accumulate, the high-frequency consumption growth rate declined, and the demand increment was lower than expected, so the fundamentals lacked support. Technically, there was a possibility of a rebound, but the high inventory would still suppress it. Overall, lithium prices would generally remain volatile [14]. Industry News - Zhefu Holdings' nickel sulfate production line has been put into operation, and the nickel equivalent production in 2024 is about 6,400 tons. The refined cobalt sulfate and lithium carbonate projects have basically completed construction and are ready for production [15]. - The fourth-generation lithium iron phosphate project of Bangpu with a total investment of 5.6 billion yuan has started construction. After full production, it can achieve an annual output value of 14.5 billion yuan [15]. - Guocheng Mining's Jinxin Mining has a mining license for 1 million tons/year and is promoting the application for a 5 million tons/year mining license [15]. - Tibet Mining's production targets for 2025 are 100,000 tons of chromite, 5,000 tons of lithium concentrate, 7,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and 93,000 tons of potassium chloride [15]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, production, supply structure, imports, and other data of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related products [17][19][21]

印尼政策仍有调整空间 警惕回撤风险 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 宏观面，美国关税政策反复摇摆，市场对关税风险的 敏感度有所降温，有色金属整体振幅有所收敛。但镍 价近期主要受印尼税改新规扰动，新税规将大幅抬升 电镍成本，导致镍价表现强于其他有色标的。 ⚫ 基本面：镍价在前期低位时，现货市场库存明显去 库，升贴水大幅走高，下游采买热度较好。而随着印 尼税改落地预期持续发酵，镍价走高后压制升贴水回 落，本期现货端有所降温。成本端FOB价格整体表现 平稳，镍铁价格在不锈钢高库存压力下如期走弱，电 镍排产仍处于绝对高位，前期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided text 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff policy is fluctuating, and the Fed's stance is hawkish. The macro - environment remains cautious. Given the current rapid inventory reduction, low absolute inventory, and rigid supply, there is strong support for the aluminum price at the lower end, and the aluminum price will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. As it enters the off - season, the pressure at the 20,000 - yuan mark will gradually increase, and the center of the aluminum price may shift downward in the second half of the second quarter [2][8] 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From April 11th to April 18th, 2025, the price of LME aluminum for 3 months decreased from 2397 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton; SHFE aluminum continuous three decreased from 19595 dollars/ton to 19590 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased by 0.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 12175 tons to 434150 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12769 tons to 92475 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased by 87.6 yuan/ton to 16382.04 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased by 57.1 yuan/ton to 3345.46 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot was 19728 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average price of Southern Storage spot was 19736 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [4] - The US tariff policy has new developments, such as the exemption of "reciprocal tariffs" for some electronic products. Trump said he expected to reach a trade agreement with the EU. The Fed Chairman warned about the inflation effect of Trump's tariff policy. Economic data in the US, Eurozone, and China were released, with China's Q1 GDP growing by 5.4% year - on - year [5][6] - On the consumer side, the operating rates of domestic downstream aluminum processing industries are differentiated. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased significantly in the past two weeks. As of April 17th, aluminum ingot social inventory was 68.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.5 million tons from the previous Thursday, and aluminum rods were 22.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.59 million tons [7] Market Outlook - The US reciprocal tariff has eased slightly, but it may still fluctuate. China's Q1 economic data is better than expected, and there is a high expectation of incremental policy implementation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum maintains high - start capacity, and the consumption is strong during the peak season. In summary, the aluminum price will oscillate in the short term and may decline in the second half of the second quarter [8] Industry News - The US has imposed high tariffs on China, and China has responded. In March 2025, China's aluminum product output was 598.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [9][10] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, and inventory seasonal changes [12][16][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rebounded but was blocked. The US is in trade negotiations with other countries, and the Fed's hawkish remarks have weakened expectations of a bailout, leading to low market risk appetite. China's Q1 export and economic indicators exceeded expectations due to pre - tariff exports and policy support. The large - scale delivery of LME zinc inventory has raised concerns about overseas consumption, pressuring zinc prices at home and abroad. Domestic downstream buyers purchased at low prices, reducing social inventory to 100,000 tons, which provides support. The supply pressure is expected to increase as smelters have a mix of production cuts and restarts. Zinc ingot imports opened and then closed, with limited inflow of imported goods, resulting in a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The galvanizing industry's operating rate increased slightly due to strong tower orders and some companies' pre - tariff exports, while the operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide industries declined. Overall, as the US enters the tariff negotiation stage and China is expected to introduce policies to hedge against overseas risks, market sentiment is expected to improve but may be volatile. Fundamentals are weak, but strong downstream purchases and inventory reduction provide support. In the short term, there is no clear single - sided driver, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely at a low level [3][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | April 11 | April 18 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,660 | 22,050 | - 610 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2,661 | 2,595 | - 66 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.52 | 8.50 | - 0.02 | | | SHFE Inventory | 63,857 | 58,585 | - 5,272 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 119,350 | 195,350 | 76,000 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 102,100 | 100,000 | - 2,100 | Tons | | Spot Premium | 120 | 160 | 40 | Yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2506, rebounded but then fell back. With tariffs in the negotiation stage and macro - trading being volatile, along with a large - scale delivery of LME inventory, zinc prices closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.58%. On Friday night, the oscillation center moved slightly higher. LME zinc oscillated downward, closing at 2,595 US dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 2.48% due to inventory increases and concerns about demand prospects [5] - In the spot market, as of April 18, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was 22,410 - 22,510 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers' inventory from previous purchases had not decreased, so their inquiry enthusiasm weakened, and traders lowered their quotes, causing the spot premium to continue to decline [6] - In terms of inventory, as of April 17, LME zinc inventory increased by 76,000 tons to 195,350 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 5,272 tons to 58,585 tons, and social inventory decreased to 100,000 tons. Due to lower zinc prices during the week, downstream buyers purchased more at low prices, with significant inventory reductions in Shanghai and Tianjin, while inventory in Guangdong changed little [7] - In the macro - aspect, Fed Chairman Powell warned about the inflationary effects of Trump's trade policies. Trump criticized Powell for being slow to act and said that a US - Ukraine mineral agreement would be signed on the 24th. The US government initiated a 232 national security investigation on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. Trump mentioned measures to help automakers adjust their supply chains. He was confident about reaching a trade agreement with the EU but was not in a hurry. The EU might impose export restrictions on the US if negotiations broke down. Trump said that US - Japan negotiations had made significant progress but no substantial documents had been signed. The European Central Bank cut interest rates. Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized early and rapid policy implementation [7][8] - China's March export in US dollars increased by 12.4% year - on - year, with a trade surplus of 102.64 billion US dollars, a 75.2% year - on - year increase. Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year and 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. March industrial added value increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 5.9% year - on - year [9] 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending April 18, the average weekly domestic TC of SMM Zn50 was flat at 3,450 yuan/metal ton, and the average weekly imported TC was flat at 35 US dollars/dry ton [13] - An East China smelter plans to conduct maintenance on its zinc production line from May 5 to May 31, affecting about 4,000 tons of zinc ingot output. A Southwest smelter postponed its April maintenance to May. New maintenance was added in East and Central China, but with new capacity release and restart after maintenance, supply pressure is expected to increase. Some smelters plan to increase production, while others postpone maintenance due to high sulfuric acid prices [13][14] - A large die - casting zinc alloy factory in East China has suspended raw material procurement due to high inventory and plans to stop production for inventory consumption. If inventory consumption is not good, it may extend the holiday or resume production after the May Day holiday [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio between domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums, LME premiums, inventory levels of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and the operating rates of downstream primary enterprises [16][21]

铅周报 2025 年 4 月 21 日 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 炼厂减产支撑 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 反弹动力不足 核心观点及策略 要点 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价先抑后扬。宏观面看，美国对中国 关税提高至 245%，且美国与各国关税进入谈判阶段， 市场情绪反复，美联储重申通胀担忧，降息救市期望 降温。国内一季度经济表现较好，政策出台对冲贸易 风险预期较强。 基本面看，电池消费淡季，废旧电瓶报废量不足，回 收商惜售， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The demand side shows that the number of blast furnace restarts was equivalent to that of overhauls last week, downstream steel purchases were stable, supporting steel mill operations, and hot metal production remained at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 83.56%, a 0.28 percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.70 percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The daily average hot metal production was 240.12 tons, a decrease of 0.10 tons from the previous week but an increase of 13.90 tons from the same period last year [2]. - On the supply side, affected by previous shipments, the number of arriving ships increased last week, and the arrival volume stopped decreasing and started to increase. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil last week was 24.348 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 418,000 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 145.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8102 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2231 million tons, a decrease of 80,400 tons [2]. - Overall, affected by previous shipments, the number of arriving ships increased last week, and the arrival volume stopped decreasing and started to increase. With stable downstream steel purchases supporting steel mill operations and high - level hot metal production on the demand side, and the State Council deploying a package of measures to stabilize the economy, enhancing the expectation of policy easing, it is expected that iron ore will show a volatile trend [2]. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3076 | - 55 | - 1.76 | 7376676 | 3023524 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3181 | - 61 | - 1.88 | 2551563 | 1360193 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 699.0 | - 9.0 | - 1.27 | 1978390 | 566874 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 952.5 | 60.0 | 6.72 | 2128415 | 501104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1552.5 | 30.5 | 2.00 | 126152 | 47129 | Yuan/ton | [3] Market Review - The iron ore futures fluctuated and adjusted last week. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 755 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 614 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 141 yuan/ton [5]. - On the demand side, the number of blast furnace restarts was equivalent to that of overhauls last week, downstream steel purchases were stable, supporting steel mill operations, and hot metal production remained at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.70 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.56 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 54.98%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.50 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 240.12 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 tons but a year - on - year increase of 13.90 tons [5]. - On the supply side, affected by previous shipments, the number of arriving ships increased last week, and the arrival volume stopped decreasing and started to increase. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 24.348 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 418,000 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 17.063 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.763 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 232,000 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 7.285 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,000 tons. The global iron ore shipment volume this period was 29.077 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 142,000 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 145.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8102 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2231 million tons, a decrease of 80,400 tons [6]. Industry News - On April 13, the People's Bank of China announced the financial data for March. At the end of March 2025, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%, the same as the previous month. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month. In terms of social financing, at the end of March 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 422.96 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month [10]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year; the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 6.5% year - on - year, 0.7 percentage points faster than the whole of last year; the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 1.1 percentage points faster; and fixed - asset investment increased by 4.2% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage point faster [10]. - According to customs data, in the first quarter of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 10.3 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, exceeding 10 trillion yuan for eight consecutive quarters, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Among them, exports were 6.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%; imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6% [10]. - Rio Tinto reported that in the first quarter of 2025, the iron ore production of its Pilbara operations was 69.8 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 19% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The iron ore shipment volume of its Pilbara operations in the first quarter was 70.7 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 17% and a year - on - year decrease of 9% [10]. - Vale reported that in the first quarter of 2025, its total iron ore production was 67.664 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 20.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%; the total iron ore sales volume was 66.141 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 18.5% and a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [10]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, and shipment volume of iron ore, steel products, etc., including the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel mill profits, steel production and inventory, and iron ore shipment and arrival volume [8][11][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 239 to close at 3,975 ringgit/ton, a decline of 5.67%; the palm oil 05 contract fell 166 to close at 8,582 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.9%; the soybean oil 05 contract rose 14 to close at 7,726 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18%; the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 115 to close at 9,195 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.24%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.56 to close at 48.32 cents/pound, an increase of 1.17%; the ICE canola active contract rose 8.3 to close at 676 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 1.24% [3][7]. - The domestic oil market is oscillating. Soybean oil trading volume has increased significantly and shows good resistance to decline. Rapeseed oil still faces supply pressure due to high inventory, but there is an expectation of tightened imports in the medium to long term. Palm oil has weak supply and demand in the domestic market. As the producing areas enter the production - increasing cycle, inventory may enter an accumulation cycle. Facing the impact of tariff policies, the governments of Malaysia and Indonesia may lower export prices, causing the spot quotes in the producing areas to decline and the Malaysian palm oil to continue to weaken. In the short term, US soybean oil is oscillating strongly due to factors such as biodiesel and the rebound of US soybeans. Canadian canola continues to rise this week supported by low inventory and good crushing demand [4][7]. - The impact of tariff policies is gradually being digested by the market. The game among countries may enter a long - cycle process. The US stock market is in an oscillating adjustment process, and the US dollar index is oscillating weakly. With supply concerns and the decline in OPEC+ production - increasing expectations, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, as the producing areas enter the production - increasing period and are affected by tariffs on exports, the producing areas may lower export prices, and spot quotes continue to decline. The import profit of demand countries has improved, and countries such as India have increased their ship purchases, which may limit the decline. Overall, palm oil may oscillate at a low level in the short term. If export demand fails to meet expectations, it may weaken in the medium term [4][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 0.56 to 48.32 cents/pound, an increase of 1.17%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 239 to 3,975 ringgit/ton, a decline of 5.67%; the DCE palm oil contract fell 166 to 8,582 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.9%; the DCE soybean oil contract rose 14 to 7,726 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18%; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract fell 115 to 9,195 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.24%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 180 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 129 yuan/ton. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 150 to 9,100 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.62%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 50 to 8,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu fell 20 to 9,280 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.22% [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil market is oscillating. Soybean oil has good anti - decline ability with increased trading volume. Rapeseed oil has supply pressure due to high inventory but may see tightened imports in the long term. Palm oil has weak supply and demand domestically, and the producing areas are in the production - increasing cycle with possible inventory accumulation. The Malaysian and Indonesian governments may lower export prices, causing the Malaysian palm oil to weaken. US soybean oil is oscillating strongly in the short term, and Canadian canola continues to rise [7]. - From April 1 - 15, 2025, in Malaysia, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area increased by 3.34%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.12%, and palm oil production increased by 3.97%. Different shipping survey agencies showed that the export volume of palm oil products from April 1 - 15, 2025, increased compared with the same period last month, with increases ranging from 7.05% to 13.55% [8][9]. - Malaysia will keep the export tax on crude palm oil in May at 10% and lower the reference price. The simplified EUDR may not fully benefit palm oil - producing countries. Indonesian palm oil producers hope the government will cut export tariffs to the US [9]. - As of the week of April 11, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 1.837 million tons, a decrease of 84,600 tons from the previous week and an increase of 99,200 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased by 97,300 tons, palm oil inventory decreased by 2,300 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory increased by 15,000 tons [9]. - As of the week of April 18, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 56,500 tons, compared with 39,580 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 153 tons, compared with 853 tons in the previous week [10]. 3. Industry News - In 2024, Indonesia exported 680,000 tons of palm oil to Russia, an increase of about 13% compared with 2023. The goal is to export 1 million tons in the future, and the exported palm oil is mainly refined [11]. - The US Department of Agriculture's Jakarta commissioner predicts that Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025/26 will increase to 47 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons compared with 2024/25. The export volume is expected to increase by 1 million tons to 24 million tons, and the ending inventory will increase from 4.9 million tons in 2024/25 to 5.29 million tons [11]. - Malaysia is optimistic and plans to adjust its palm oil export strategy to deal with new US tariff measures. The current export tariff to the US is 10% with a 90 - day suspension period. The expected export value to the US this year is 21 billion ringgit, with palm oil products contributing 4.9 billion ringgit [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis differences of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, export volume, and inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils [14][15][16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of alumina prices is limited, and there is a possibility of a subsequent decline under pressure due to the upcoming resumption of previously shut - down production capacity and the planned addition of 1.6 million tons of new alumina capacity at the end of April, which will put significant pressure on the supply side [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From April 10 to April 18, 2025, the alumina futures (active) rose from 2790 yuan/ton to 2818 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price dropped from 2911 yuan/ton to 2888 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB increased from 330 dollars/ton to 347.5 dollars/ton; the import loss widened from 108.27 yuan/ton to 299.30 yuan/ton; the exchange warehouse inventory decreased by 9289 tons to 287681 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 8100 tons. The prices of domestic bauxite in some regions changed, with the price in Shanxi (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) dropping by 50 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton and in Guizhou (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) dropping by 100 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton, while the prices in Henan and Guangxi remained stable [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract fell 1.26% last week, closing at 2818 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 2888 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous Friday. Domestic bauxite supply and prices were relatively stable, but future prices may face downward pressure. The production and transportation in Guinea's GIC mining area were restricted, but the impact on import prices was not significant yet. On the supply side, the roasting furnace of an alumina plant in the southwest region completed maintenance, and the operating rate increased slightly. As of April 17, China's alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 82.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 77%. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises had different production adjustment plans, and the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly by 0.5 million tons to 43.81 million tons. The alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 268 tons to 288,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 8100 tons [4] Market Outlook - The GIC mining area in Guinea was affected by government inspections, but it has not affected the import ore price for now. The supply - side production capacity has both increases and decreases, with the resumption of production in the southwest region and new maintenance plans in Shanxi. The demand for electrolytic aluminum remains rigid, but the spot trading has weakened as alumina prices stabilized and rebounded. Starting next week, the previously shut - down production capacity will gradually resume, which may put pressure on alumina prices. The planned addition of 1.6 million tons of new capacity at the end of April will also increase supply - side pressure [2][6] Industry News - Alumina futures prices rebounded slightly due to news from Guinea's GIC mining area, and the impact on ore supply remains to be seen. In March 2025, China imported 16.47 million tons of bauxite and concentrates, a 14% month - on - month increase and a 39.1% year - on - year increase; from January to March, the cumulative import was 47.07 million tons, a 29.9% year - on - year increase. A medium - sized alumina plant in Shanxi plans to overhaul a production line on April 19, affecting about 500,000 tons of production capacity for about 15 days [7] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures prices, spot prices, spot premiums, inter - period spreads, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, cost - profit, and exchange inventory [9][10][12]

豆粕周报 2025 年 4 月 21 日 现货供应逐步增多 连粕或震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆5月合约跌8收于1035.75美分/蒲式耳，跌 幅0.77%；豆粕05合约跌55收于2857元/吨，跌幅1.89%； 华南豆粕现货涨120收于3120元/吨，涨幅4%；菜粕05合约 跌103收于2493元/吨，跌幅3.97%；广西菜粕现货跌70收 于2380元/ ...