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工业硅周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 供应维持宽松，工业硅低位震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 上周工业硅低位震荡，主因全球贸易局势仍然不明，我国 工业企业利润增速转正，工业品市场情绪仍然较为低迷。 供应来看，新疆地区开工率维持7成左右，川滇地区开工 率依然偏低，企业生产压力加大亏损面持续扩大，供应端 转入收缩；从需求侧来看，多晶硅5月部分企业有减产计 划，硅片企业后续有减产 ...

油脂板块震荡收涨 棕榈油或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨61收于4036林吉特/吨，涨幅 1.53%；棕榈油09合约涨244收于8376元/吨，涨幅3%；豆 油09合约涨230收于7934元/吨，涨幅2.99%；菜油09合约 涨285收于9506元/吨，涨幅3.09%；CBOT美豆油主连涨1.38 收于49.7美分/磅，涨幅2.86%；ICE油菜籽活跃合约涨21.4 收于697.4加元/吨，涨幅3.17%。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 棕榈油周报 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 ...

钢材周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 政策积极有为 期价震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫ 宏观面：中共中央政治局召开会议，会议强调，要加 紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极 的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加力实施城市更 新行动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。加快构 建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给，优化存 量商品房收购政策，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 持续稳定和活跃资本市场。 ⚫ 基本面： ...

碳酸锂周报 2024 年 4 月 28 日 基本面预期边际走弱 锂价或有二次探底 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 基本面方面：供给收缩背景下，厂库延续累库，反映现实 需求偏弱，可与乘联会高频销量数据互相印证。盐湖产能 复产驱动供给结构内部置换，成本重心下移。价格此次破 位后并未带动下游积极补库，部分下游节前备库已完成， 且看空观点较为一致，现货市场观望情绪浓郁。 ⚫ 成本方面：报告期内 ...

豆粕周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 现货大幅飙升 连粕反弹后或走弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆7月合约涨12.5收于1059.25美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅1.19%；豆粕09合约涨10收于3031元/吨，涨幅 0.33%；华南豆粕现货涨730收于3850元/吨，涨幅23.4%； 菜粕09合约涨87收于2684元/吨，涨幅3.35%；广西菜粕现 货涨210收于2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus of alumina prices remains on the changes in supply - side production capacity. Currently, the supply side has both negative factors such as the upcoming commissioning of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled production capacity, and positive factors like some regional production capacity being in a loss - making state and potentially undergoing overhauls. Amid the stalemate between bulls and bears, alumina prices are expected to have support at the bottom and fluctuate within a range [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From April 17 to April 25, 2025, the price of the active alumina futures contract increased from 2828 yuan/ton to 2846 yuan/ton, a rise of 18 yuan/ton; the price of domestic alumina spot rose from 2888 yuan/ton to 2897 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton; the spot premium increased from 60 yuan/ton to 81 yuan/ton, a rise of 21 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Australian alumina remained unchanged at 347.5 US dollars/ton; the import profit and loss improved from - 293.47 yuan/ton to - 285.74 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.7 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 294,269 tons to 274,723 tons, a decrease of 19,546 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory decreased from 8100 tons to 7800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons. The prices of domestic bauxite in some regions remained unchanged, while the CIF price of Guinean bauxite decreased from 88 US dollars/ton to 80 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton [3] 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 0.99% last week, closing at 2846 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average price of the spot market on Friday was 2897 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous Friday. Affected by the cost - price inversion of alumina enterprises, the purchase price of domestic bauxite in some regions was slightly reduced again, and there may be further downward adjustments in the future. In 2025, China's total bauxite imports reached 47.089 million tons, and the total imports in March alone were 1.6466 million tons, breaking the previous monthly import record. On the supply side, there were both production increases and decreases in the alumina market last week, and overall, the operating production capacity increased significantly. Some previously overhauled alumina enterprises resumed production, while some enterprises started roasting furnace overhauls due to unstable product quality. As of April 24, China's built - in alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating production capacity was 85.4 million tons, and the operating rate was 79.52%. On the consumption side, some electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong was transferred to Yunnan, and production capacity in Guangxi and Guizhou was restored and newly commissioned. Overall, the theoretical operating production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly this week, and the demand for alumina increased. As of now, the theoretical operating production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 43.825 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from last week. The alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12,958 tons to 275,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory was 7800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [4][5] 3.3 Market Outlook - Last week, some previously overhauled and reduced - production alumina production capacity in the southwest and Guangxi regions resumed production, but there was also new production capacity undergoing overhauls. Overall, the current supply - side operating production capacity increased slightly compared to last week. On the consumption side, the weekly theoretical operating production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased, but most raw material purchases were based on long - term contracts, and spot transactions were relatively light. On the cost side, the disturbance of imported ore did not have much impact on the supply. The profit pressure of alumina was transmitted upwards, and there was still downward pressure on ore prices. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12,958 tons to 275,000 tons last week, and the factory warehouse inventory was 7800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons. Overall, the focus of alumina prices remains on the changes in supply - side production capacity. Currently, the supply side has both negative factors such as the upcoming commissioning of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled production capacity, and positive factors like some regional production capacity being in a loss - making state and potentially undergoing overhauls. Amid the stalemate between bulls and bears, alumina prices are expected to have support at the bottom and fluctuate within a range [7] 3.4 Industry News - According to Baichuan Yingfu, a 400,000 - ton production line of an alumina plant in Henan with a built - in production capacity of 1.4 million tons has reduced production, and the operating production capacity is 1 million tons, with the resumption time to be determined. On April 24, the Zhalute Banner Branch of the Tongliao Ecological Environment Bureau released an announcement on the second public notice of the environmental impact assessment of the Jintai and Tongliao Green Aluminum - based New Materials Source - Network - Load - Storage Energy Optimization Demonstration Project. The project is located in the Zhahao'er Industrial Park, Tongliao City, with an annual production capacity of 2 million tons of alumina. The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the Market Access Negative List (2025 Edition), stating that the addition of new electrolytic aluminum and alumina production capacity is strictly prohibited in key regions [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina exchange inventory, and alumina cost - profit [10][14]

宏观及大类资产月报 关税撬动全球失序，黄金重塑价值锚点 核心观点 核心观点 核心观点 核心观点 核心观点 核心观点 "二次通胀"预期升温金价屡创新高 2024 年 4 月 8 日 "二次通胀"预期升温金价屡创新高 ⚫ 美国经济：4月特朗普对等关税幅度远超市场预期，贸易壁垒陡增 推动全球衰退预期显著升温，一周内主要股指普遍回调逾10%， 伦铜下跌超15%，原油跌幅超过20%。随后关税延期90天虽缓解 市场对特朗普政策不确定性的短期冲击，但并未实质性消除相关 担忧，美国资产遭遇股债汇三杀，美债失守避险锚，美元信用根 基被动摇，黄金、日元及瑞士法郎等传统避险资产明显走强。3月 美国"硬数据"（非农、零售、CPI）尚可，关税阴霾下"软数据" 仍在持续恶化，消费者信心指数持续回落、通胀预期飙升。3月全 球制造业景气弱复苏、地区分化，全球央行仍处于降息周期、节 奏受关税预期扰动。 核心观点 核心观点 2024 年 4 月 8 日 ⚫ 风险因素：特朗普关税谈判进展不及预期，美国内政分裂加剧， 全球地缘政治风险超预期，国内经济复苏不及预期。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 l ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普再对美联储施压，国内 4 月 LPR 未降息 海外方面，特朗普警告称除非美联储降息，否则经济将放缓，并再次批评美联储主席鲍 威尔，美联储独立性持续受到威胁。特朗普关税谈判缺乏进展，墨西哥总统直言"连共识都 没有"，日本石破茂表态拒绝一味让步，韩美贸易磋商本周四开启。特朗普政策外交内政不 确定性均未减，美国再次遭遇股债汇三杀，美元指数最低跌破 98 关口，纳指盘中跌超 3%， 10Y 美债利率上行至 4.4%，金价创下 3444 美元新高，美铜上涨，油价跌幅超 2%。 国内方面，4 月 LPR 报价利率按兵不动，二季度进入择机降准降息窗口期，预计近期降 准落地有望。A 股放量上涨，两市成交额回升至 1.07 万亿，风格上小微盘股、北证 50 领涨， 红利指数、上证 50 小幅回调，行业上贵金属、办公用品、机器人板块领涨，资金情绪边际 回暖，市场赚钱效应有所提升。债市方面，央行持续净投放，资金面小幅收紧，LPR 降息落 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 4 月 21 日 关税政策反复，金价维持强势 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格继续维持强势运行，金价持续再创新高。 白银价格也持续反弹，站上32美元/盎司上方。关税政策 带来的不确定性令投资者纷纷转向避险资产黄金，美元指 数持续走弱，提振贵金属价格走势。 ⚫ 关税政策依然反复不定。11日，联邦政府发出通知，已同 意对智能手机、电脑、芯片等电子产品 ...