核心观点及策略 铜周报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 对等关税暂缓，铜企稳向上 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周铜价企稳反弹，主因美国暂缓对等关税期限，而中方 姿态强硬无惧正面对抗，中欧积极磋商维护全球供应链稳 定，美元指数持续走弱提振金属市场，美国3月核心通胀 降温令美联储操作降息具有一定空间，全球避险情绪得到 一定程度改善；国内方面，中央汇金类平准基金入市并大 幅增持中国股市，央行发声坚决 ...

2025 年 4 月 14 日 政策落地在即 镍价或偏强运行 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 | | | 上周市场重要数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/4/11 | 2025/4/2 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | SHFE 镍 | 121300 | 129460 | -8160 | 元/吨 | | LME 镍 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Demand side: Last week, the number of blast furnace restarts was equivalent to that of overhauls, production profit decreased, and the growth rate of molten iron output slowed down. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.28%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.87 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4022 million tons, a 14,900 - ton increase from the previous week and a 154,700 - ton increase year - on - year [2][5]. - Supply side: Last week, both the shipment and arrival of foreign iron ore decreased month - on - month, and the port inventory declined. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2.393 million tons, a 254,800 - ton decrease from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14.83102 billion tons, a 112,390 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 830 tons [2][6]. - Overall: Affected by the previous shipments, the number of arriving ships and the arrival volume decreased last week. Considering the demand side, the number of blast furnace restarts was equivalent to that of overhauls, production profit decreased, and the growth rate of molten iron output slowed down. On the macro - level, the US exempted some Chinese products from "reciprocal tariffs", easing the tariff sentiment. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate and stabilize [2][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3131 | - 33 | - 1.04 | 12,913,972 | 2,995,110 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3242 | - 118 | - 3.51 | 4,398,093 | 1,164,621 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 708.0 | - 80.5 | - 10.21 | 2,801,968 | 481,877 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 892.5 | - 108.5 | - 10.84 | 2,364,567 | 445,365 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1522.0 | - 106.5 | - 6.54 | 156,461 | 47,275 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Futures market: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated significantly. At the beginning of the week, affected by US tariffs, the futures price dropped sharply. In the middle of the week, as the US tariff policy eased, market sentiment recovered, and iron ore stabilized and rebounded. - Spot market: The quotation of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 762 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The price of Super Special powder was 623 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 139 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) updated the tariff schedule on the 11th, exempting the import tariffs of goods in categories such as automatic data processors, computers, communication equipment, displays and modules, and semiconductors from "reciprocal tariffs" [7][8]. - People's Daily published a commentator article, stating that in the future, monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have sufficient room for adjustment and can be introduced at any time according to the situation. Fiscal policy will increase the intensity and speed of expenditure, and there is still room for further expansion of fiscal deficits, special bonds, and special treasury bonds. It will boost domestic consumption with extraordinary measures and stabilize the capital market with practical policy measures [11]. - EU member states voted on the 9th to pass the first - round counter - measures against US tariffs, imposing up to 25% tariffs on a series of US products, mainly targeting US steel and aluminum tariffs [11]. - Trump announced on social media that he had approved a 90 - day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" for more than 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs would be reduced to 10% [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 38 charts, including the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures and spot prices, basis trends, steel mill profits, steel production and inventory, blast furnace operating rates, and iron ore shipment and arrival volumes, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [10][12][15]

铅周报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 铅价反弹修复 高度相对有限 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 | | | 上周市场重要数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 4 月 4 日 | 4 月 11 日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | SHFE 铅 | 17100 | 16825 | -275 | 元/吨 | | LME 铅 | 1910.5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff measures initially caused market panic, but the extension of tariffs for most countries and good US inflation data eased market sentiment. The domestic expectation of loose policies remains high. The aluminum supply side mainly involves capacity transfer, with little change in operating capacity. On the consumption side, downstream aluminum processing enterprises have stable new orders and increased willingness to buy at low prices, leading to a significant reduction in aluminum social inventory. Although the risk sentiment has cooled, attention should be paid to the direction of China - US trade negotiations and potential tail - risks of tariffs. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19,500 - 20,000 yuan/ton, supported by factors such as low supply elasticity, seasonal consumption peak, and low inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price increased from 2385.5 to 2397 yuan/ton, SHFE aluminum continuous third contract decreased from 20330 to 19595 dollars/ton, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.3 to 8.2, LME spot premium decreased from - 31.71 to - 37.46 dollars/ton, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 14525 tons to 442225 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 26388 tons to 105244 tons, aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.1 tons to 74.4 tons, and aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.94 tons to 23.51 tons [4]. 3.2 Market Review - In the spot market, the Yangtze River spot weekly average price was 19758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 799.5 yuan/ton from last week; the Southern Reserve spot weekly average price was 19698 yuan/ton, a decrease of 824.5 yuan/ton from last week. In the macro - aspect, the US's tariff measures and the European's response affected the market. The US March CPI growth rate decreased significantly, but inflation may rise after tariff increases. The market is still cautious [5]. - In the consumption end, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 0.38% to 62.2%. The industry will continue the pattern of "demand stratification and profit reconstruction". Three variables need to be focused on, and the SMM predicts that the operating rate may drop to 61.5% next week [6]. - In terms of inventory, on April 7, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 3.0 tons compared with Monday and 2.1 tons compared with last Thursday; the domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory decreased by 1.29 tons compared with Monday [7]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The extension of tariffs by Trump has cooled the market risk sentiment, but attention should be paid to the China - US trade negotiation and potential tariff tail - risks. The fundamentals of low supply elasticity, seasonal consumption peak, and low inventory support the aluminum price, which is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19,500 - 20,000 yuan/ton [3][8]. 3.4 Industry News - In March, the retail sales of the passenger vehicle market reached 1.94 million, with a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2%. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 991,000, with a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 45%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger vehicle market was 51.1%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The 350,000 - ton green - power aluminum project of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum and Electricity Company plans to complete the civil engineering in early July [9]. 3.5 Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous third price trend, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal change, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal change [10][11][15].

贵金属周报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 避险情绪助推，金价再创新高 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格继续维持强势运行，国际金价站上3250美 元/盎司，再创历史新高，银价在大幅下挫后上周也强势 反弹站上32美元/盎司上方。上周四特朗普对于超过175个 国家暂缓90天征收对等关税政策，但市场对全球贸易量萎 缩的担忧加剧。美元指数持续大幅下挫，提振贵金属价格 走势。 ⚫ 最新公布的美国3月CPI、PPI数据都低于市场预期，显示 短期通胀压力缓解。但市场预计关税政策可能在未来推高 通胀， ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250411 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：关税无常引发美国股债汇三杀，国内股市情绪短期企稳 海外方面，3 月美国通胀超预期降温，核心 CPI 同比 2.8%创下 2021 年 3 月来新低，现 阶段的经济超预期增长、通胀超预期回落，难以改善市场对特朗普关税政策反复无常的担忧。 隔夜美国市场出现股债汇三杀，美元指数跌幅超 2%来到 100 关口，10Y 美债利率重新迈向 4.5%，纳指盘中跌幅超 7%后 V 型反弹，美元走弱、中美贸易战升级推动资金流入黄金避险， 金价再次创下新高，铜价涨幅超 3%、油价跌幅超 3%，两者走势出现背离。 国内方面， 3 月 CPI 同比下降 0.1%、PPI 同比下降 2.5%均弱于市场预期，主要受食品 价格、国际油价拖累，目前物价偏弱表明供给侧出清、内需回升的共振仍需时日。"对外反 制，对内稳增长"政策预计近期将加速落地，A 股缩量上涨，北证 50、微盘股领涨，在政策 预期呵护下，市场情绪企稳。债券市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global recession expectation has cooled down due to the postponement of tariffs, but the geopolitical situation will become more complex in the medium and long term. The A - share market is expected to show a structural market with a stable index and style differentiation, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. - Precious metals prices may rebound in the short term due to the volatile tariff policies, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high of gold prices and the US March CPI data [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term as the global trade war enters a period of easing negotiations and the risk appetite of the global market has significantly recovered [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize as the market risk sentiment is released, and the overall supply - demand situation is still good, but attention should be paid to further tariff trends [8][9][10]. - Alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation as the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved, but there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter [11]. - Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity as the short - term market risk is quickly released with the loosening of Trump's tariff policy [12]. - Lead prices are expected to follow the London lead to stabilize and repair as the tariff risk eases [13]. - Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level as the global trade situation concern eases, and the tight pattern of tin mines in the second quarter is difficult to change [14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation as the peak - season demand is weak and the high inventory drags down the spot market [16]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate as the cost - support logic still exists although the fundamental outlook is bearish [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to be strong as the cost - increase logic of the increase in Indonesia's mineral royalty is about to be realized [18]. - Crude oil prices are mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but due to the volatile tariff policy, it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment eases and the fundamentals change little, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern [20]. - Iron ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment recovers and the supply - demand relationship changes little [21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate as the panic sentiment eases and the market may return to the fundamentals [22][23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize as the oil price rises significantly from the low level and the market sentiment warms up [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most economies, but still imposed a 10% global tariff during the negotiation period, and raised the tariff on China to 125%. The "global recession expectation" has cooled down significantly, and risk assets have risen sharply [2]. - Domestic: China has raised the tariff on the US, and the policy of "counter - measures against foreign countries and stabilizing growth and expectations at home" has become the main line. The A - share market has rebounded with the support of liquidity, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - International precious - metal futures prices rose significantly on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, attracting safe - haven funds and supporting precious - metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June is 72%. Precious - metal prices may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the US March CPI data [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened low and moved high on Wednesday, and the London copper rebounded. The global trade war has entered a period of easing negotiations, and the market risk preference has increased. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in May is 76%. Codelco is optimistic about the long - term copper demand, and copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed down on Wednesday. The US has suspended tariffs on some countries, and the EU has passed counter - measures. The market risk sentiment is released, and the supply - demand situation is still good. Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize, but attention should be paid to tariff trends [8][9][10]. 3.1.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract fell on Tuesday. Some alumina plants have reduced production, and the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved. However, there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter, and alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation [11]. 3.1.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated weakly during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The market risk is quickly released, and the spot supply is tight. Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity [12]. 3.1.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract continued to fall during the day and rebounded at night on Wednesday. The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand, but due to the easing of tariff risks, lead prices are expected to stabilize and repair [13]. 3.1.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated downward during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The Bisie tin mine is gradually resuming production, but the global tin - mine tight pattern in the second quarter is difficult to change. Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level [14][15]. 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract oscillated at a low level on Wednesday. The high inventory drags down the market, and the demand in the peak season is weak. Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [16]. 3.1.10 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices oscillated on Wednesday. Although the fundamentals are bearish, the cost - support logic still exists, and lithium prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. 3.1.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, and Indonesia is about to raise the mineral royalty. Nickel prices are expected to be strong [18]. 3.1.12 Crude Oil - The Shanghai crude - oil main contract oscillated on Wednesday and rose sharply at night. The oil price is mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but it is recommended to wait and see due to the volatile tariff policy [19]. 3.1.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel and iron - ore futures first fell and then rose on Wednesday. The capital - market sentiment eases, and the fundamentals of steel and iron ore change little. Steel and iron - ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, and the panic sentiment has eased. The double - meal prices may return to the fundamentals and oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices fell on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, the market sentiment warms up, and the oil price rises significantly from the low level. Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize [24]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - Provides the closing price, change, change percentage, total trading volume, total open interest, and price unit of various metal futures contracts on Wednesday, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, precious metals, steel, and iron ore [25]. 3.3 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the data of various metals on April 9th and April 8th, including futures prices, warehouse receipts, inventories, spot quotes, spot premiums and discounts, refined - scrap spreads, and other indicators [26][28][29].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250409 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：关税博弈牵制全球市场，离岸人民币贬至新低 海外方面，对等关税生效前夕，市场被"贸易战缓和"预期所左右，全球资产价格延续 高波态势。美国称已安排与日韩等亲密盟友磋商贸易，随后表示坚持对中国征收 104%的关 税，风险资产再度承压，纳指日内振幅超 7%，商品价格均有不同程度的回调，金、铜、油 跌幅分别超 1%、2%、3%，美元指数在 103 关口震荡后向下，美债受到抛售、利率大幅上 行。目前贸易冲突仍未有显著缓和信号，贸易中断下的全球衰退预期、逆全球化从博弈到现 实或将成为近期海外定价主线。 国内方面，海外资产价格巨震、地缘局势加剧下，政策密集出台提振信心，各大上市公 司纷纷公告增持和回购，央行给予流动性托底预期，A 股主要宽基指数止跌反弹，风格上红 利、价值占优，行业上反关税、农业、内需等板块领涨。在政策"稳住股市"的决心下，指 数大幅调整风险降低，后续演绎"指数稳、风格分化"的结构性行情。隔夜 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250408 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 海外方面，在对等关税落地生效前，关税博弈牵动全球市场。特朗普称不会暂停对等关 税措施，拒绝欧盟提议的互免关税政策，但对谈判持开放态度；若中国不取消上周对美国产 品加征的 34%关税，威胁对华再额外加征 50%关税。美盘市场波动加剧、避险交易暂时缓 和，美元指数回升至 103.5，10Y 美债利率从 3.87%回升至 4.2%，纳指震荡收涨，金价下跌 1.8%、伦铜创下 16 个月新低、油价创下近 4 年新低。 国内方面，A 股在假期贸易冲突升级、全球衰退预期下补跌，上证指数跌破 3100 关口 （-7.3%），中证 1000、创业板指、北证 50 跌幅分别为 11.4%、12.5%、18%，两市成交额 回升至 1.6 万亿，行业上仅在中国出口反制下的农业板块收涨。特朗普威胁对华再加征 50% 关税，在幅度上对贸易影响边际减弱，但意味着中美贸易脱钩缓和余地在骤降，隔夜美股止 跌但中概股跌幅调整超 5%，短期国内风险 ...