1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The macro - market may continue to trade on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a favorable atmosphere, but concerns about the Fed's independence will limit the upward space. The current market supply is stable, and the focus is on the demand performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, there is some restocking at low prices, but large - scale restocking has not formed, and the inventory has not entered continuous destocking. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum has reached the upper limit of the recent oscillation range. Without a trend - setting macro - guidance or a clear fundamental orientation, the market is expected to remain in a wait - and - see state, and Shanghai Aluminum will continue to oscillate favorably [2][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/29 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 2622 | 2619 | - 3.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 20560 | 20715 | 155.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.8 | 7.9 | 0.1 | | | LME Spot Premium | 2.07 | 2.98 | 0.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 479525 | 481050 | 1525.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 57144 | 58629 | 1485.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 20604 | 20772 | 168.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | 30 | - 30 | - 60.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Reserve Spot Average Price | 20562 | 20712 | 150.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | 42 | 60 | 18.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 59.6 | 62 | 2.4 | tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 16628.88 | 16581.41 | - 47.5 | yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 3975.12 | 4190.59 | 215.5 | yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's dismissal of Cook raised concerns about the Fed's independence. The US Q2 real GDP annualized revised value increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The Q2 core PCE price index annualized revised value increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000. The eurozone economic sentiment index in August dropped to 95.2. In China, Shanghai introduced real - estate new policies, and the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July narrowed [4] - **Consumption end**: The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7% week - on - week, but the order recovery degree of each segment varied, and the short - term downstream operating rate may still rise slowly [5] - **Inventory aspect**: On August 28, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 620,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,000 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons from last Thursday [5] 3.3 Market Outlook The macro - market may continue to trade on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a favorable atmosphere, but concerns about the Fed's independence will limit the upward space. The current market supply is stable, and the focus is on the demand performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, there is some restocking at low prices, but large - scale restocking has not formed, and the inventory has not entered continuous destocking. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum has reached the upper limit of the recent oscillation range. Without a trend - setting macro - guidance or a clear fundamental orientation, the market is expected to remain in a wait - and - see state, and Shanghai Aluminum will continue to oscillate favorably [6] 3.4 Industry News - Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum output in July 2025 was 510,200 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July was 3.4142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% [7] - The Yunnan Green and Low - Carbon Demonstration Industrial Park was completed, and the 1.93 - million - ton low - carbon aluminum B - series project of Yunnan Honghe was put into production. Currently, the first - stage capacity of 160,715 tons in the B - series has reached full production, and the transferred capacity of 378,000 tons is expected to reach full production before October 1 [7] - The retail volume of the national new - energy passenger - vehicle market in the first 24 days of August was 727,000, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 6% and 7% respectively. The new - energy retail penetration rate has reached 56.6%, and the cumulative retail volume since the beginning of the year has reached 7.182 million, a year - on - year surge of 27% [7] 3.5 Related Charts The report provides 10 charts including the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - month and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London Aluminum ratio, LME Aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai Aluminum's inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium/discount, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal change, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal change [8][9][12][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract dropped 5.25 to close at 1053 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.5%; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 33 to close at 3055 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.07%; the South China soybean meal spot price dropped 10 to close at 2940 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.34%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 30 to close at 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.18%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 10 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.39% [4]. - U.S. soybeans oscillated. The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was higher than expected; the re - allocation of the U.S. biodiesel exemption volume to large refineries might face significant resistance, and U.S. soybean oil prices declined during the week; new - crop export sales exceeded expectations. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated and declined during the week. The oil mill operating rate was at a high level, and soybean meal inventory was expected to increase. The Chinese trade delegation went to the U.S. for negotiations. Trump previously posted that he hoped China would purchase U.S. soybeans. There were positive expectations for the conclusion of an agricultural product agreement in this negotiation. Market sentiment cooled, and long - position funds reduced their positions to avoid risks [4][7]. - Precipitation in U.S. soybean production areas will be below the average in the next two weeks, which may be unfavorable for the growth and development during the pod - setting period. There is a high possibility that the high - yield per - unit estimate will be revised down. Attention should be paid to the data adjustment in the September USDA report. As the positive sentiment expectation of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations is gradually priced in, the decline of domestic soybean meal futures slows down. Attention should be paid to whether an agricultural product agreement is reached and announced. In terms of ship - booking, China has not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans yet, and the purchase progress for the November - January shipping period is slow compared with the same period. The release of reserve soybeans has alleviated the tight supply expectation to some extent, but the tight supply expectation remains unchanged without effective replenishment of distant - end soybean purchases. In the short term, domestic soybean meal futures may oscillate within a range [4][7][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract dropped 5.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.5%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased by 6 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.22%; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans increased by 3 dollars per ton, an increase of 0.64%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit increased by 41.16 yuan per ton; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 33 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.07%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 30 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.18%; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased by 3 yuan per ton; the East China soybean meal spot price remained unchanged; the South China soybean meal spot price dropped 10 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.34%; the South China spot - futures price difference increased by 23 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean: The good - to - excellent rate was higher than expected, but dry conditions in the production areas since mid - August may lead to a downward revision of the high - yield per - unit estimate in the September USDA report. The re - allocation of the U.S. biodiesel exemption volume to large refineries faces resistance, and new - crop export sales exceeded expectations but the overall sales progress is slow [4][7]. - Domestic soybean meal: The oil mill operating rate is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory is expected to increase. The Sino - U.S. trade negotiation has positive expectations for the agricultural product agreement, which cools the market sentiment and causes long - position funds to reduce their positions [4][7]. - Supply and demand: China has not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans, and the purchase progress for the November - January shipping period is slow. The release of reserve soybeans alleviates the tight supply expectation, but the tight supply expectation remains without effective replenishment of distant - end soybean purchases [4][7][11]. Industry News - Brazil: In August, the daily average soybean export volume increased by 24% compared with the same period last year; a federal judge approved a ban to temporarily suspend the "Amazon soybean ban" plan; farmers in Paraná state are preparing for the 2025/26 sowing, but the planting area may decline [12][14][16]. - Canada: As of August 17, the weekly rapeseed export volume decreased by 64.34%; from August 1 to 17, the rapeseed export volume decreased by 46.16% compared with the same period last year; in July, the rapeseed crushing volume increased by 13.13% month - on - month; the Canadian government expects the 2025 rapeseed output to increase by 3.6% [12][13][16]. - EU: As of August 24, the 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, and rapeseed import volumes decreased compared with the same period last year [14]. - Argentina: As of August 20, the cumulative sales volume of 2024/25 soybeans reached 2989.56 million tons [16].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, copper prices fluctuated and strengthened. The main reasons were the moderate rebound of the US core PCE in line with expectations, the resilience of the overall US economic demand, the dovish stance of Powell and Fed governors on interest rate cuts, and the concerns about the Fed's policy independence triggered by Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed governor Cook, which weakened the US dollar index and boosted the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine shortages persisted, the release of global refined copper new production capacity was limited, domestic social inventories were at a low level, and the near - term structure turned to B again. In the short term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the $10,000 integer mark for LME copper [2][3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From August 22nd to August 29th, LME copper rose from $9809.00/ton to $9906.00/ton, a 0.99% increase; COMEX copper rose from 446.1 cents/pound to 458.5 cents/pound, a 2.78% increase; SHFE copper rose from 78690.00 yuan/ton to 79410.00 yuan/ton, a 0.91% increase; international copper rose from 70220.00 yuan/ton to 70490.00 yuan/ton, a 0.38% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.01, LME spot premium/discount decreased by $1.88/ton (2.40% decrease), and Shanghai spot premium increased by 100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 29th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 600,000 tons. LME copper inventory increased by 2925 tons (1.88% increase), COMEX inventory increased by 6361 short tons (2.34% increase), SHFE inventory decreased by 1950 tons (-2.39% decrease), and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 4100 tons (-4.68% decrease) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Movement Reasons**: The rise in copper prices was due to the moderate rebound of the US core PCE in July in line with expectations, the Fed's dovish stance on interest rate cuts, and the concerns about the Fed's independence caused by Trump's actions. Fundamentally, overseas mine shortages persisted, new production capacity was limited, and domestic inventories were low [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 29th, the total global inventory rebounded slightly. LME copper inventory increased slightly by 0.3 million tons with a cancellation warrant ratio of 8.2%, SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 0.2 million tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons. The LME inventory continued to rebound but at a slower pace, and the US copper decline rate slowed down. The Shanghai - London ratio remained at 8.02 due to the weak US dollar index [8]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: In the US, the core PCE in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The Fed's dovish governor supported a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The EU and the US reached a tariff concession agreement. Domestically, China's industrial enterprise profits decreased in July and from January to July, but high - tech manufacturing profits grew rapidly [9]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Codelco's Teniente mine in Chile is expected to cut production by 40,000 tons this year. The underground pumping at the Kamoa - Kakula mine is slow, and the domestic spot TC dropped to -$41.5/ton. China's refined copper production remained high, but non - CSPT smelters began to cut production slightly due to cold material shortages. On the demand side, power grid investment weakened, the start - up rate of refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the consumption of the wind and solar industries was expected to decline, and the new energy vehicle market entered the off - season but still had good year - on - year growth. Domestic social inventories remained at a low level of about 120,000 tons, and the near - term structure turned to B [10]. 3. Industry News - Freeport Indonesia expects to complete the repair of its East Java joint - venture smelter in early September. The Gresik smelter has an annual cathode copper production capacity of 342,000 tons [13]. - Hudbay Minerals restarted its Snow Lake mine in Manitoba after the evacuation order was lifted and expects to resume full - load production in early September [14]. - Ivanhoe's Kamoa - Kakula mine in Africa is expected to restart mining in early 2026 after drainage. The company lowered its 2025 production forecast by 28% to 370,000 - 420,000 tons of copper concentrate [15]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, inventory changes, basis, premium/discount, and other aspects [17][18][22][26][30][31][33][37][39][44].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices continued to rise. Concerns about the Fed's independence boosted risk - aversion sentiment, and the release of the US July PCE data further strengthened the market's interest - rate cut expectation. COMEX gold futures approached the historical high, and international silver prices reached a 14 - year high [3][6][7]. - The US economy remains resilient, but under Trump's pressure, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed support for interest - rate cuts, and the market expects a more than 86% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in September [3][7]. - Market doubts about the Fed's independence, the weakening of the US dollar index, and the interest - rate cut expectation support the rise of precious metal prices. Technically, gold prices face pressure at the previous high, while silver prices are expected to be stronger in the short term [3][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 785.12 | 11.72 | 1.52 | 136691 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 781.70 | 4.87 | 0.63 | 27326 | 201542 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3516.10 | 98.90 | 2.89 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9386 | 194 | 2.11 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9365 | 54 | 0.58 | 409046 | 3444504 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 40.75 | 1.87 | 4.81 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices rose last week. The US July PCE data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, pushing up gold and silver prices. COMEX gold futures neared the historical high, and silver prices hit a 14 - year high [3][6][7]. - The US economy shows resilience, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is increasing due to Trump's pressure. Many Fed officials support interest - rate cuts, and the market expects an over 86% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in September [3][7]. - Doubts about the Fed's independence, the weakening of the US dollar index, and the interest - rate cut expectation support the rise of precious metal prices. Technically, gold prices face pressure at the previous high, and short - term silver prices are expected to be stronger [3][7]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The annualized revised quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the US Q2 real GDP was 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The annualized revised quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the Q2 core PCE price index was 2.5%, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6% [10]. - The US July PCE price index was 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value; the month - on - month growth was 0.2%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous 0.3%. The US July core PCE price index rose 2.9% year - on - year, the highest since February 2025, in line with expectations [10]. - US personal spending in July 2025 increased 0.5% month - on - month to $20.802 trillion, accelerating from the revised 0.4% in June and in line with market expectations [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000, and the number of continued claims dropped to 1.954 million, both lower than expected [10]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 29, 2025, the total gold holdings of ETFs were 977.68 tons, an increase of 20.91 tons from last week; the silver holdings of ishare were 15310.00 tons, an increase of 21.18 tons from last week [11]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: For gold futures on August 26, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 275767, non - commercial short positions were 61456, and non - commercial net long positions were 214311, an increase of 1721 from last week. For silver futures on the same day, non - commercial long positions were 68227, non - commercial short positions were 21761, and non - commercial net long positions were 46466, a decrease of 83 from last week [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on alumina [2] Core Viewpoints - The alumina futures main contract fell 3.25% last week, closing at 3,036 yuan/ton, and the national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3,222 yuan/ton on Friday, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] - Domestic bauxite supply and prices changed little compared with last week, and the trading mentality of both supply and demand sides of imported ore was cautious. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments [5] - Alumina supply reduction was concentrated in the South, with some enterprises' roasting furnaces under maintenance and new ones starting, while the production in the North changed little. As of August 28, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.2 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93% [5] - Last week, Shandong's electrolytic aluminum capacity continued to transfer to Yunnan, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi continued to resume production, with a slight increase in the operating capacity and theoretical demand [5] - On August 29, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 82,810 tons to 87,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][7] - Overall, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South is expected to resume next week. The alumina operating capacity will remain high, the spot supply will gradually become loose, and the prices in the North and South will decline simultaneously with a narrowing price difference. The warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase, the position on the disk will decline, and the market pressure on alumina will increase. However, due to strong cost support and policy expectations, the room for further decline in alumina is limited [2][7] Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Category | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/29 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3138 | 3036 | -102 | yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3263 | 3222 | -41 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 134 | 237 | 103 | yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 370 | 362 | -8 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -24.60 | 0.10 | 24.7 | yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 77746 | 97829 | 20083 | tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - The alumina futures main contract fell 3.25% last week, closing at 3,036 yuan/ton, and the national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3,222 yuan/ton on Friday, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] - Domestic bauxite supply and prices changed little compared with last week, and the trading mentality of both supply and demand sides of imported ore was cautious. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments [5] - Alumina supply reduction was concentrated in the South, with some enterprises' roasting furnaces under maintenance and new ones starting, while the production in the North changed little. As of August 28, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.2 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93% [5] - Last week, Shandong's electrolytic aluminum capacity continued to transfer to Yunnan, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi continued to resume production, with a slight increase in the operating capacity and theoretical demand [5] - On August 29, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 82,810 tons to 87,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][7] Market Outlook - Last week, both domestic and imported ores were relatively stable. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments. Currently, the bauxite inventory at domestic ports is sufficient, and the supply of imported ore in the short term is expected to be stable [2][7] - On the supply side, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South has not resumed, and new roasting capacity entered maintenance last week, with a slight decline in the operating capacity [2][7] - On the consumption side, when the alumina price declined, electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased their spot replenishment purchases slightly, but due to the stable operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum, the increase in demand was limited [2][7] - Overall, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South is expected to resume next week. The alumina operating capacity will remain high, the spot supply will gradually become loose, and the prices in the North and South will decline simultaneously with a narrowing price difference. The warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase, the position on the disk will decline, and the market pressure on alumina will increase. However, due to strong cost support and policy expectations, the room for further decline in alumina is limited [2][7] Industry News - According to Aladdin (ALD) research, the freight rate of Cape-type ships on the Guinea-China route increased significantly this week, rising by 1.5 US dollars/ton to 25 US dollars/ton [8] - The Natural Resources Department of Shanxi Province recently released the review result announcement of the preliminary design of the 300,000-ton/year underground mining expansion project of Loufan Bauxite Mine of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, which aims to increase the current production scale from 240,000 tons/year to 300,000 tons/year [8] - On August 22, 2025, Emirates Global Aluminium announced that its subsidiary, Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), would completely terminate all activities in Guinea due to the illegal expropriation of its assets by the Republic of Guinea [8] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month-to-month spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost and profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][10][11][13][15][18][20][23]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Demand Side**: Last week, the daily average hot metal output remained above 2.4 million tons. Before the parade, maintenance increased, leading to a decline in hot metal output. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, with the daily average hot metal output at 2.4013 million tons [1]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, the overseas shipment volume decreased slightly week - on - week but was at a high level for the same period. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased week - on - week and was at a relatively low level for the same period. The total global iron ore shipment was 33.158 million tons, a decrease of 0.908 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports decreased by 561,800 tons [1]. - **Overall Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak. However, the expectation of restocking after the parade supports the spot price, and the futures price is expected to show a volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Sections Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3160 | 22 | 0.70 | 17417436 | 2897345 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3346 | - 43 | - 1.27 | 5457540 | 1454760 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 787.5 | 0.5 | 0.06 | 1844920 | 410009 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1151.0 | - 64.5 | - 5.31 | 17695850 | 764344 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1643.0 | - 93.0 | - 5.36 | 344282 | 51526 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, the iron ore futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The high - level operation of hot metal and the expectation of restocking by steel mills after the parade supported the spot price [4]. - **Spot Market**: The PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 779 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week. The Super Special powder price was 673 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton week - on - week [4]. Industry News - **Real Estate Policy**: Shanghai optimized and adjusted real estate policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions for eligible families outside the outer ring and tax exemptions for non - local residents' first - home purchases [10]. - **Steel Mill Maintenance**: As of August 27, 2 more blast furnaces in 23 sample steel enterprises were under maintenance. More maintenance is expected by the end of the month, which will affect hot metal output [10]. - **Local Government Bonds**: In the first 7 months of this year, China issued 3.3159 trillion yuan in new local government bonds [10]. - **Steel Industry Policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a work plan to promote the stable growth of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity [10]. Related Charts The report provides a series of charts showing the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore futures and spot prices, as well as steel mill profits, production, inventory, and consumption data [9][11][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main reasons were the cooling of domestic anti - involution sentiment, the decline of the polysilicon futures price after a peak, and the negative growth of China's industrial enterprise profit growth rate again. The supply side remained in passive contraction, while the demand side showed mixed trends. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the spot market weakened gradually [2][6][10]. - Overall, Sino - US trade may start a new round of talks. The cooling of anti - involution sentiment and the negative profit growth of industrial enterprises in July dragged down the sentiment of the industrial product market. Technically, there was strong resistance at the 9000 level on the futures price chart, and the willingness of funds to enter the market was not strong after the cooling of anti - involution sentiment. It was expected that the futures price would have a risk of further correction in the short term [3][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | Price on Aug 29 | Price on Aug 22 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial silicon main contract | 8390.00 | 8745.00 | - 355.00 | - 4.06% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 spot | 9050.00 | 9250.00 | - 200.00 | - 2.16% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 spot | 8950.00 | 9050.00 | - 100.00 | - 1.10% | Yuan/ton | | 421 spot | 9400.00 | 9600.00 | - 200.00 | - 2.08% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 spot | 10300.00 | 10550.00 | - 250.00 | - 2.37% | Yuan/ton | | Organic silicon DMC spot | 10750.00 | 10750.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon dense material spot | 47.00 | 46.00 | 1.00 | 2.17% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial silicon social inventory | 54.1 | 54.3 | - 0.2 | - 0.37% | Ten thousand tons | [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro aspect**: In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, and from January to July, the cumulative decline was 1.7%. However, the profits of high - tech manufacturing industries grew rapidly, with a significant leading role. In July, the profits of high - tech manufacturing industries turned from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared with June [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of August 28, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas of industrial silicon remained at 293, and the overall furnace - opening rate rose slightly to 36.8%. In terms of demand, polysilicon trading was frequent at the end of August, with increased trading volume and significantly reduced inventory. Due to industry self - discipline, the production schedule in September would continue to decline. Small - scale silicon wafer enterprises sold goods at low prices to reduce inventory pressure, while large - scale enterprises increased their demand for silicon material procurement. Photovoltaic cells followed the raw material price and rose slightly. The market preference for large - size and high - efficiency battery cells increased, and the supply of relevant enterprises was tight, but the terminal demand did not improve significantly. The component price increased slightly, with continuous strengthening cost support, but still needed to compete for downstream market orders to maintain production, and the competition pattern was fierce. The distributed projects faced the dilemma of declining yields, and it was expected that the photovoltaic terminal market would face the dilemma of shrinking demand under the influence of anti - involution policies, which would drag down the industrial silicon futures price and limit its rebound space [8]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of August 29, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 541,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons. The increase in social inventory was mainly due to weak demand in the off - season. As of August 22, the registered warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise to 50,453 lots, totaling 252,000 tons. After the exchange issued a new standard for delivery products, most of the 4 - series brand warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5 - series warehouse receipts that met the new delivery standard were actively registered and stored, becoming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. Currently, the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered and stored was increasing day by day. The warehouse receipt inventory had remained at around 50,000 tons recently because the production reduction expectations of enterprises were continuously strengthened under the call of the photovoltaic industry to actively respond to the national anti - involution policy [9]. Industry News - On August 25, the Guizhou Provincial Development and Reform Commission released an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on the "Implementation Plan (Trial) for Deepening the Market - Oriented Reform of New Energy On - grid Electricity Prices in Guizhou Province". The document clarified the electricity volume scale, mechanism electricity price, and implementation period of the new energy sustainable development price settlement mechanism [11]. - The photovoltaic enterprises' plan to list in Hong Kong reached a small peak this month. After Yingfa Ruineng, the third - largest battery cell manufacturer, announced on August 20 that it had submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, another leading company in the photovoltaic and energy storage field, Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. (300274.SZ), also announced today that it was planning to issue H - shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Its semi - annual report showed that in the first half of the year, the company achieved an operating income of 43.533 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 7.735 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 55.97%. The increase in overseas market revenue was considered an important reason for the profit growth. During the reporting period, the company achieved an overseas revenue (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, China) of 25.379 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 88.32%, accounting for 58.30% of the total revenue. In the same period of the previous year, the overseas market revenue accounted for 43.44%. During the reporting period, the global demand for photovoltaic and energy storage markets continued to grow steadily. According to third - party data, the global newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 310 GWac, a year - on - year increase of 60%, and the major global photovoltaic markets maintained a growth trend, with emerging markets performing prominently. In terms of energy storage, driven by factors such as the further increase in the global renewable energy penetration rate, continuous cost reduction, and gradual improvement of the revenue mechanism, the global energy storage demand continued to maintain a high - growth trend. According to third - party data, the global lithium - ion energy storage installed capacity reached 109 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68% [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai government has optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, including relaxing housing purchase restrictions and tax exemptions for eligible non - local residents, which boosts the sentiment of the black industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and continue the production reduction policy, thus boosting the sentiment of the black industry [3][6]. - Last week, the production, apparent demand, and inventory of the five major steel products all increased month - on - month. The apparent demand for rebar was still weak despite a low - level recovery, and the inventory increased but the absolute value was not large. The hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly due to northern production restrictions. The spot market was weak, and the futures price maintained a weak and volatile trend [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3160 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan, a rise rate of 0.70%, a total trading volume of 17,417,436 lots, and a total open interest of 2,897,345 lots [4]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3346 yuan/ton, a fall of 43 yuan, a fall rate of - 1.27%, a total trading volume of 5,457,540 lots, and a total open interest of 1,454,760 lots [4]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 787.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.5 yuan, a rise rate of 0.06%, a total trading volume of 1,844,920 lots, and a total open interest of 410,009 lots [4]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 1151.0 yuan/ton, a fall of 64.5 yuan, a fall rate of - 5.31%, a total trading volume of 17,695,850 lots, and a total open interest of 764,344 lots [4]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1643.0 yuan/ton, a fall of 93.0 yuan, a fall rate of - 5.36%, a total trading volume of 344,282 lots, and a total open interest of 51,526 lots [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile trend. Stimulated by policy benefits such as the relaxation of the Shanghai property market, the market first rose and then fell. Due to the weak fundamentals, steel prices were slightly weak. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 3000 (- 20) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3270 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3380 (- 20) yuan/ton [6]. - In terms of macro - aspects, Shanghai optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" [6]. - In terms of industry, last week, rebar production was 2210000 tons, an increase of 60000 tons month - on - month; apparent demand was 2040000 tons, an increase of 90000 tons; factory inventory was 1700000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons; social inventory was 4540000 tons, an increase of 210000 tons; and total inventory was 6230000 tons, an increase of 160000 tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 3250000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; factory inventory was 800000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons; social inventory was 2860000 tons, an increase of 30000 tons; total inventory was 3650000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons; and apparent demand was 3210000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons [7]. 3. Industry News - Shanghai optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, including relaxing housing purchase restrictions and tax exemptions for eligible non - local residents [8][9]. - From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 331.59 billion yuan, including 53.83 billion yuan of general bonds and 277.76 billion yuan of special bonds [13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and continue the production reduction policy [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 20 charts related to steel products, including futures and monthly spread trends, basis trends, spot regional price difference trends, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [11][12][13] etc.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil futures and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures all declined, with CBOT US soybean oil futures dropping significantly due to difficulties in redistributing 1.39 billion gallons of RIN to large refineries and potential policy adjustments [4][7]. - Affected by the weakening external market, the domestic commodity market continued to decline and adjust, with a generally weak sentiment. In August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month, while export demand increased month - on - month, providing support for prices. However, after the phased positive factors were gradually realized, market drivers weakened, and long - position funds reduced their positions [4][7]. - Macroscopically, the US core PCE in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. The US dollar index continued to fluctuate, and oil prices were also in a fluctuating state. Fundamentally, there may be significant resistance in redistributing the US biodiesel exemption volume for the 2023 - 2024 period to large refineries, causing US soybean oil prices to continue to fall. Malaysian palm oil is currently in a peak production period, but high - frequency data shows that the overall supply pressure is not large, which may support prices. In the short term, palm oil prices may decline and adjust [4][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - From August 22 to August 29, CBOT soybean oil futures dropped 3.1 to 52.1 cents per pound, a 5.62% decline; BMD Malaysian palm oil futures fell 154 to 4377 ringgit per ton, a 3.4% decline; DCE palm oil futures decreased 276 to 9316 yuan per ton, a 2.88% decline; DCE soybean oil futures dropped 100 to 8358 yuan per ton, a 1.18% decline; CZCE rapeseed oil futures decreased 101 to 9789 yuan per ton, a 1.02% decline [5]. - The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also declined to varying degrees [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The continuous decline of US soybean oil prices was mainly due to the difficulty of redistributing 1.39 billion gallons of RIN to large refineries and potential policy adjustments. The domestic commodity market was affected by the weakening external market and continued to decline and adjust [4][7]. - In August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month, while export demand increased month - on - month. According to different data sources, the export volume from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% - 36.41% compared with the same period last month [7][8][9]. - As of August 22, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.4091 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons from the previous week and 0.2913 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory increased, palm oil inventory decreased, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased [9]. - As of August 29, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions decreased from the previous week, while that of palm oil increased [10]. - Short - term palm oil prices may decline and adjust, but the supply pressure of Malaysian palm oil is not large, which may support prices. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy in the fourth - quarter off - season [4][10]. Industry News - Indonesia urged the EU to immediately cancel the anti - subsidy tax on imported biodiesel after the WTO supported several key claims in Indonesia's appeal [11]. - The Indian vegetable oil industry organization IVPA urged the government to cancel the tax credit refund restrictions implemented since July 2022, stating that these restrictions have tightened operating funds and hindered industry investment [11]. - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax (SST) [11][12]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [14][38][43].

2025 年 9 月 1 日 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 镍价区间震荡 警惕技术性回撤 核心观点及策略 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，报告期内，特朗普罢免美联储理事库克，并表示降 息派将在联储获得多数席位，市场担心联储独立性缺失。但 现阶段联储的降息预期与市场基本相符，并未出现明显加速 征兆，商品价格反响有限。通胀数据符合预期，美联储释放 鸽派信号，沃勒讲话提振降息预期。 ⚫ 基本面：印尼能矿部早期通过了 ...