Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is increasing, with the apparent supply of domestic lead ingots reaching 72.39 million tons in November 2025, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate is marginally warming up, but the social inventory of lead ingots is marginally accumulating. Currently, the lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro funds and industrial seat funds is intensifying. Although the non - ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish in the double - loose cycle, the subsequent trend of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.37% at 17,473 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 122,500 lots. The LME 3S lead price fell 8 to $2,075/ton, with a total position of 174,800 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,100 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap price difference of 200 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [11] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [11] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 109,800 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,278,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrates in November was 180,900 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.5% and a month - on - month increase of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,686,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.2% [15] - **Production**: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrates was 1,658,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.89% [17] - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 274,900 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.09% and a month - on - month increase of 3.75%. From January to November, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 2,973,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.62% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Operating Rate and Output**: The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.32% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: The recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead production was 354,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.52% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 262.0% and a month - on - month increase of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 32.4%. The total domestic supply of lead ingots in November was 723,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,241,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77%. In November 2025, the apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.6% [38] - **Battery Exports**: In November 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,530,070 units, a year - on - year decrease of 22.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.23%. From January to November, the total net lead - containing export of batteries was 19,680,580 units, and the cumulative net lead - containing export of batteries decreased by 10.47% year - on - year [41] - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly affected the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries [47][49][52] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a shortage of - 8,400 tons [61] - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 98,400 tons [64] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [69] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [71] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [74] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased, the investment fund in LME lead turned net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The contradiction between speculative funds and industrial funds in terms of positions intensified [77]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International geopolitical conflicts have escalated, with Germany and France sending troops to Greenland. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the supply side is facing the expectation of production cuts during the spring maintenance period. According to the production plan, the LL2605 contract has no new production capacity pressure. The rebound in the cost side and the alleviation of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound [15][17][18]. - This week's forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is (6300 - 6600); for polypropylene (PP2605), it is (6200 - 6500). The recommended strategy is to go long on LL2605 - LL2609 (a positive spread strategy) [17]. Summaries According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information** - Policy: International geopolitical conflicts have escalated, with Germany and France sending troops to Greenland [15]. - Valuation: For polyethylene, the weekly increase is (spot > futures > cost); for polypropylene, it is also (spot > futures > cost) [15]. - Cost: Last week, WTI crude oil rose by 10.77%, Brent crude oil rose by 10.94%, coal prices rose by 1.15%, methanol rose by 1.33%, ethylene rose by 12.01%, propylene rose by 2.65%, and propane rose by 2.34%. There is still support on the cost side [15]. - Supply: PE capacity utilization is 81.56%, a week - on - week decrease of - 2.19%, a year - on - year decrease of - 4.13%, and a decrease of - 9.64% compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization is 76.61%, a week - on - week increase of 3.74%, a year - on - year decrease of - 2.56%, and a decrease of - 10.55% compared to the five - year average. With the approaching spring maintenance and low profits in each process, there is an expectation of significant production cuts [15]. - Imports and Exports: In November, domestic PE imports were 1.0622 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04% and a year - on - year decrease of - 9.99%. PP imports were 179,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.97% and a year - on - year decrease of - 8.74%. The import profit has rebounded, and the supply of PE from North America has increased, increasing the pressure on the import side. In November, PE exports were 85,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07% and a year - on - year increase of 38.74%. PP exports were 224,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.54% and a year - on - year increase of 36.59% [15]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PE is 41.10%, a week - on - week decrease of - 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 104.58%. The downstream operating rate of PP is 52.58%, a week - on - week decrease of - 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 4.12%. It is the seasonal off - season, and there are no bright spots in the downstream operating rate of polyolefins [16]. - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory is 350,300 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 11.41% and a year - on - year stocking of 7.72%; PE trader inventory is 29,200 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 0.14%. PP production enterprise inventory is 431,000 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 7.85% and a year - on - year stocking of 8.16%; PP trader inventory is 193,900 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 5.28%; PP port inventory is 70,600 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 0.70%. Middle - stream traders have started to stock up [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - International geopolitical conflicts have escalated. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the supply side is facing the expectation of production cuts during the spring maintenance period. According to the production plan, the LL2605 contract has no new production capacity pressure. The rebound in the cost side and the alleviation of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound. - This week's forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is (6300 - 6600); for polypropylene (PP2605), it is (6200 - 6500). - Recommended strategy: Go long on LL2605 - LL2609 (a positive spread strategy) [17]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the term structure, prices, trading volume, open interest, basis, and spreads of LLDPE and PP futures contracts, as well as the price differences between different polyolefin products [31][32][47]. 3. Cost Side - The oil - based cost has increased significantly. The report presents multiple charts related to the prices of WTI crude oil, thermal coal, naphtha, propane, etc., as well as the production capacity utilization rate and gross profit of domestic LPG refineries, and the import and export situation of LPG [72][78][81]. 4. Polyethylene Supply Side - The raw materials for PE production mainly include oil, light hydrocarbons, coal, methanol, and外购乙烯, with oil - based raw materials accounting for 80%. - The report shows charts of PE production capacity utilization, maintenance loss volume, and production volume, as well as those of LLDPE [136][137][142]. 5. Polyethylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Charts are presented to show the inventory situation of PE production enterprises, traders, and different types of enterprises, as well as the import sources, import volume, and import profit of LLDPE [158][163][166]. 6. Polyethylene Demand Side - The downstream demand for LLDPE is mainly concentrated in packaging films, followed by agriculture films, pipes, etc. - The report provides charts of the downstream operating rate, order days, and raw material and finished product inventory of PE [171][173][182]. 7. Polypropylene Supply Side - The raw materials for PP production mainly include oil, PDH, coal, methanol, and外购丙烯, with外购丙烯 accounting for 53%. - Charts of PP production capacity utilization, maintenance loss volume, and production volume are provided [193][194][199]. 8. Polypropylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Charts show the inventory situation of PP production enterprises, different types of enterprises, and traders, as well as the import volume, import profit, export country composition, export volume, and export profit of PP [207][208][222]. 9. Polypropylene Demand Side - The downstream demand for PP is mainly concentrated in BOPP, followed by injection molding, drawing, etc. - The report provides charts of the downstream operating rate, raw material and finished product inventory of PP [228][230][235].

Report Title - "Policy Stabilizes Rhythm, Short - term Volatility: Stock Index Weekly Report 2026/01/17" [1] Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of the year, incremental funds entered the market, driving the market to rise rapidly. This week, policies tightened to stabilize the market rhythm. The long - term policy orientation is still a slow - bull market. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: The CSRC aims to maintain market stability and crack down on illegal activities; China has 200,000 new satellite applications; stock exchanges raise the minimum margin ratio for margin trading; the central bank cuts re - loan and rediscount rates; TSMC plans a 2026 capital expenditure of $52 - 56 billion [12] - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In November 2025, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year - on - year, retail sales rose by 1.3%, and fixed - asset investment fell by 2.6%. December's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1. In December 2025, M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 was 8.5%, and social financing increment was 220.75 billion yuan. December's US dollar - denominated exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year. The US added 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, with a 4.4% unemployment rate [12] - **Interest Rates and Credit Environment**: This week, 10Y Treasury bond and credit bond interest rates declined, and the credit spread widened. Liquidity became stable at the beginning of the year [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term; hold IF long positions for 6 months [14] 2. Spot and Futures Markets - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14%, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.00%, etc [17] - **Futures Contract Performance**: IF, IH contracts generally fell, while IC, IM contracts generally rose [18] 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: In Q3 2025, GDP real growth was 4.8%. In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1. In November 2025, consumption growth was 1.3%, investment growth was - 2.6%. In December, US dollar - denominated exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year [40][43][46] - **Corporate Earnings**: In the 2025 Q3 report, operating income growth was 1.24% year - on - year, and net profit growth was 3.89% year - on - year [49] 4. Interest Rates and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: 10Y Treasury bond and 3 - year AA - corporate bond interest rates are presented in the report. Liquidity and the relationship between Chinese and US interest rates are also analyzed [53][58] - **Credit Environment**: In December 2025, M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 was 8.5%. Social financing increment was 220.75 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 64.62 billion yuan [64] 5. Capital Flow - **Inflow**: This week, about 13.363 billion new equity - focused fund shares were established, and the two - market margin trading balance increased by about 91.295 billion yuan, with the latest balance at 270.1216 billion yuan [72][75] - **Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 164 yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 1 [78] 6. Valuation - **PE (TTM)**: Shanghai 50 was 11.74, CSI 300 was 14.22, CSI 500 was 37.38, and CSI 1000 was 49.92 - **PB (LF)**: Shanghai 50 was 1.29, CSI 300 was 1.50, CSI 500 was 2.57, and CSI 1000 was 2.66 [83]

02 期现市场 05 需求端 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润及库存 利空频发， 粕类价格下跌 蛋白粕周报 2026/01/17 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） 03 供给端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：据外媒消息报道，中加两国政府达成初步贸易协议，中方承诺把加拿大菜籽的进口合计税率一次性降至约15%。据USDA出口销售 数据显示，截至1月8日当周美国出口大豆206万吨，当前年度累计出口大豆3064万吨；其中当周对中国出口大豆122万吨，当前年度对中国累 计出口812万吨。据USDA数据显示，1月预测2025/26年度全球大豆产量为425.67百万吨，环比12月预测增加3.13百万吨，较上年度减少1.48 百万吨。库存消费比为29.4%，环比12月增加0.39个百分点，较上年度减少0.44个百分点。其中，1月预测美国大豆产量为115.99百万吨，环 比12月预测增加0.238百万吨，较上年度减少3.05百万吨；1月预测巴西产量为178百万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to experience a supply - demand double decline and fluctuate weakly. The supply of polysilicon is shrinking, and it will operate with fluctuations [16][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly output was 22,000 tons, down week - on - week. DMC output was 43,600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons week - on - week. From January to November, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.895 million tons or 19.88%. From January to November, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 651,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,400 tons or 1.95% [14]. - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 510,400 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons week - on - week. Factory inventory was 263,000 tons, down 3,900 tons week - on - week; market inventory was 191,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 56,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week - on - week [14]. - **Price and Cost**: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton week - on - week. The cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9,720.00 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 8,960.00 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 78,400 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons week - on - week [15]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Industrial Silicon**: As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 553 (non - oxygenated) had a premium of 595 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 6.47%; the 421 had a premium of 245 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis ratio of 2.77% [23]. - **Polysilicon**: As of January 16, 2026, the average price of polysilicon N - type re -投料 was 54.85 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg week - on - week; the average price of N - type dense material was 54.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 50,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis of the main contract was 4,650 yuan/ton, with a basis ratio of 8.48% [26]. 3. Industrial Silicon - **Total Output**: As of January 16, 2026, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 78,400 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons week - on - week. In December 2025, the output of industrial silicon was 355,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 decreased by 652,300 tons or 13.86% year - on - year [31]. - **Output in Main Producing Areas**: Relevant graphs show the output trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu [30][33][35]. - **Production Cost**: As of January 16, 2026, the electricity price and silicon stone price in the main producing areas were unchanged week - on - week. The silicon coal price in the main producing areas was also unchanged week - on - week. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9,720.00 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 8,960.00 yuan/ton [43][46]. - **Visible Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 510,400 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons week - on - week. Factory inventory was 263,000 tons, down 3,900 tons week - on - week; market inventory was 191,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 56,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week - on - week [49]. 4. Polysilicon - **Output**: As of January 16, 2026, the weekly output of polysilicon was 22,000 tons, down week - on - week. In December 2025, the output of polysilicon was 115,500 tons, an increase of 900 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 1.3052 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.46% [54]. - **Capacity Utilization and Scheduling**: In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of polysilicon was 42.23%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points month - on - month. It is predicted that the output of polysilicon in January 2026 will continue to decline [57]. - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 316,800 tons, and the SMM -口径 inventory was 321,000 tons [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of January 16, 2026, the production cost of polysilicon was 42,969.05 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 16,241.47 yuan/ton [63]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The weekly output of silicon wafers was 10.83 GW, a slight increase week - on - week. In December 2025, the output of silicon wafers was 43.9 GW, a decrease of 10.47 GW month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 647.09 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.46%. The inventory of silicon wafers was 24.78 GW, down week - on - week. It is predicted that the output of silicon wafers in January 2026 will be 45.2 GW, basically unchanged month - on - month [66][69]. - **Battery Cell**: In December 2025, the output of battery cells was 46.76 GW, a decrease of 8.85 GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic batteries was 47.11%, a decrease of 8.93 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 669.48 GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.95%. The inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 9.04 GW, an increase week - on - week. It is expected that the output of battery cells in January 2026 will be 39.36 GW, a significant decrease month - on - month [75][78]. - **Module**: In December 2025, the output of modules was 38.7 GW, a decrease of 8.2 GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of modules was 37.57%, a decrease of 8.14 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 563.2 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The finished product inventory of photovoltaic modules was 30.4 GW, basically unchanged week - on - week. It is predicted that the output of modules in January 2026 will be 32.47 GW, a decrease from December [83][86]. 5. Silicone - **Output**: As of January 16, 2026, the output of DMC was 43,600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons week - on - week. In December 2025, the output of DMC was 204,800 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 2.477 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93% [93]. - **Price and Profit**: As of January 16, 2026, the average price of silicone was 13,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton week - on - week. The gross profit of DMC was 1,921.88 yuan/ton [96]. - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the DMC inventory was 43,300 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons week - on - week [99]. 6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of January 16, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 24,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 23,890 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton week - on - week. From January to November, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.895 million tons or 19.88%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.6%, and the capacity utilization rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58% [104][107]. - **Exports**: From January to November, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 651,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,400 tons or 1.95% [110].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the market sentiment fluctuated significantly, with lithium carbonate rising first and then falling. Affected by the adjustment of the battery export tax - rebate policy, the lithium price broke through the 170,000 - yuan mark at the beginning of the week. However, the sentiment in the commodity market weakened in the middle of the week, with more profit - taking orders from lithium carbonate bulls, and it closed at the daily limit down on Friday, with the total open interest decreasing by 17.5% during the week. The expectation of fundamental improvement has been fully traded. If the increase in lithium price is transmitted to the end - users, the increase in battery cost will suppress some energy - storage demand, and the current price still has a certain emotional premium. Due to the large price fluctuations of lithium carbonate recently and many disturbances from the industrial and macro aspects, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. Pay attention to the market atmosphere, demand policies, downstream acceptance willingness, and changes in open interest on the trading board [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Periodic and Spot Market**: On January 16, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 148,681 yuan in the evening session, with a weekly increase of 6.86%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the GZFE was 146,200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.94% [12]. - **Supply**: On January 16, SMM reported that the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 22,605 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3% [12]. - **Demand**: According to CAAM, in December, the production and sales of domestic new - energy vehicles reached 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.3% and 7.2% respectively. The sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 52.3% of the total sales of new vehicles. In 2025, the production and sales of domestic new - energy vehicles reached 16.626 million and 11.649 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 29% and 28.2% respectively. The sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 47.9% of the total sales of new vehicles, 7 percentage points higher than the previous year. According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in December, the combined output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. From January to December, the cumulative output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 1,755.6 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 60.1%. The first quarter is a critical window period for "grabbing exports" of batteries, and the demand in the off - season is expected to increase. The decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [12]. - **Inventory**: On January 15, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 109,679 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 263 tons (- 0.2%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 28 days. On January 16, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the GZFE were 27,458 tons, a weekly increase of 8.3% [12]. - **Cost**: The change in lithium salt prices is transmitted upstream. On January 16, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,070 - 2,100 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 6.92%. As the lithium price falls, pay attention to the changes in the willingness of mining enterprises to support prices and release goods [12]. 2. Periodic and Spot Market - On January 16, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 148,681 yuan in the evening session, with a weekly increase of 6.86%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan. The closing price of LC2605 on the GZFE was 146,200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.94% [20]. - The average discount in the standard electric - carbon trading market on the exchange is - 1,400 yuan (referring to the main contract LC2605). The net short - position of the main seats in the lithium carbonate contract has increased [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 9,000 yuan [27]. 3. Supply Side - On January 16, SMM reported that the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 22,605 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. In December 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.0%, a year - on - year increase of 42.4%, and an annual year - on - year increase of 43.6% [32]. - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 60,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4%, a year - on - year increase of 48.7%, and an annual year - on - year increase of 70.3%. The output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 13,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%, and an annual year - on - year increase of 17.4% [35]. - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 3.1% month - on - month to 14,990 tons, with an annual year - on - year increase of 15.1%. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 10,010 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9%, and an annual year - on - year increase of 27.3% [38]. - In November 2025, China imported 22,055 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to November, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 219,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. In November 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28%, of which the volume exported to China was 14,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9%. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 207,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 6%, of which the volume exported to China was 151,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%. In November 2025, Chile exported 10,132 tons of lithium sulfate, all of which were exported to China, a month - on - month increase of 493%. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 82,000 tons of lithium sulfate, a year - on - year increase of 33% [41]. 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, the global consumption accounted for 87%. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportion and weak growth. The proportion of lithium used in fields such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powders, air - conditioners, and medicine is only 5% [45]. - According to CAAM, in December, the production and sales of domestic new - energy vehicles reached 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.3% and 7.2% respectively. The sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 52.3% of the total sales of new vehicles. In 2025, the production and sales of domestic new - energy vehicles reached 16.626 million and 11.649 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 29% and 28.2% respectively. The sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 47.9% of the total sales of new vehicles, 7 percentage points higher than the previous year [48]. - From January to November, the cumulative sales of new - energy vehicles in Europe were 3.423 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.3%, with a market penetration rate of 28.3%. From January to November, the cumulative sales of new - energy vehicles in the United States were 1.405 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, with a market penetration rate of 9.55%, lower than 9.71% in the same period of the previous year [51]. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in December, the combined output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. From January to December, the cumulative output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 1,755.6 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 60.1%. In December, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1%. From January to December, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries was 769.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.4% [54]. - In 2025, the annual output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 58.8% year - on - year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 23.5% year - on - year. The first quarter is a critical window period for "grabbing exports" of batteries, and the demand in the off - season is expected to increase. The decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [57]. 5. Inventory - On January 15, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 109,679 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 263 tons (- 0.2%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 28 days. On January 16, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the GZFE were 27,458 tons, a weekly increase of 8.3% [64]. - Driven by the "grabbing export" demand, the inventory of cathode materials has decreased. The inventories of power batteries and energy - storage batteries are at recent lows [67]. 6. Cost Side - The change in lithium salt prices is transmitted upstream. On January 16, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,070 - 2,100 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 6.92%. As the lithium price falls, pay attention to the changes in the willingness of mining enterprises to support prices and release goods [74]. - In November, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 678,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.4% and a month - on - month increase of 27.6%. From January to November, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 5.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. From January to November, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the import of lithium concentrate from Africa increased by 6.4% year - on - year. The supply of high - cost hard - rock mines is accelerating, and the import of lithium mines is significantly supplemented [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - With the end of the year - end shipping rush by mines, the latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline week - on - week. The supply pressure may be marginally reduced as overseas shipments enter the off - season. The limited resumption of hot metal production and the unresolved inventory structural issues, along with the pre - festival restocking by steel mills and the relatively warm market atmosphere, support the iron ore price. However, there is a lack of new marginal drivers. As market sentiment fluctuates, the iron ore price may experience some shock adjustments at high levels. Future attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills and the rhythm of hot metal production [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The global total iron ore shipments were 31.809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons. Australia's shipments were 19.316 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 16.52 million tons, an increase of 36,700 tons. Brazil's shipments were 6.748 million tons, a decrease of 1.283 million tons. The total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 30.15 million tons, an increase of 1.903 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 29.204 million tons, an increase of 1.64 million tons [13]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points [13]. - **Inventory**: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports nationwide was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Difference**: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 126 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder price difference was 81 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder price difference was 136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 22.5 yuan/ton, with no change [19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: The pellet feed ratio was 14.59%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The lump ore feed ratio was 11.63%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 73.78%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points. The Tangshan scrap steel price was 2,155 yuan/ton, with no change. The Zhangjiagang scrap steel price was 2,110 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [25]. - **Profit**: The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from last week. The PB powder import profit was 23.21 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - The imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 165.551 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7984 million tons. The pellet inventory was 391,000 tons, an increase of 46,210 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.52971 million tons, an increase of 66,940 tons. The lump ore inventory was 2.15413 million tons, an increase of 38,750 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 73.8921 million tons, an increase of 2.0387 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 57.0714 million tons, an increase of 432,400 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, an increase of 2.7263 million tons from last week [35][38][41][46]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: The latest 19 - port Australian shipments to China were 15.933 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,500 tons. Brazilian shipments were 6.643 million tons, a decrease of 1.282 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 5.085 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 414,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 4.555 million tons, a decrease of 409,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 5.896 million tons, an increase of 271,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 3.914 million tons, an increase of 1.148 million tons [51][54][57]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: The latest 45 - port arrivals were 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons. In November, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.0041 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 845,000 tons [60]. - **Domestic Mines**: The latest domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 59.72%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points. The daily average iron concentrate powder output of domestic mines was 46,670 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons [66]. 3.5 Demand Side - The domestic daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points. The 45 - port daily average iron ore port clearance volume was 3.1989 million tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,400 tons [71][74]. 3.6 Basis - As of January 16, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 38.72 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 4.55% [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's implementation of a temporary suspension of key metal tariffs this week has alleviated the tightness in the platinum and palladium spot market, causing the price increase to slow down. The "temporary suspension order" has led to the regression of the premium supported by tariffs, and the price difference between the two regions is returning to the historical average. The easing of the driving force for spot inflows into the US has also reduced the shortage of overseas platinum - group metal spot. In terms of macro - driving factors, the increasing probability of Kevin Warsh, who is more rational in monetary policy, becoming the new Fed Chairman has short - term suppression on the upward driving force of the precious metals sector. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards platinum and palladium strategies [9][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - From January 9th to 16th, 2026, the price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 0.16% to 469.35 yuan/gram, and the price of the main platinum contract rose 4.46% to 610.05 yuan/gram. This week, the price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 2.86% to $2342.9 per ounce, and the price of the main NYMEX palladium contract fell 1.47% to $1846.5 per ounce [10][12] - The data shows various changes in platinum and palladium such as closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, CFTC positions, and ETF holdings from January 9th to 16th, 2026 [12] 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: This week, the price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 2.86% to $2342.9 per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 13th was 65,949 lots. As of January 16th, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 602.46 yuan/gram, and the premium of the domestic platinum market has significantly recovered due to the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy. As of January 16th, the one - month implied lease rate of platinum spot was 18.48%. On January 13th, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased from 7,337 lots to 7,536 lots [17][21][22][25] - **Palladium Price**: This week, the price of the main NYMEX palladium contract fell 1.47% to $1846.5 per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 13th was 18,156 lots. As of January 16th, the one - month implied lease rate of palladium was 6.41%. The current net position of palladium managed funds is a net short of 96 lots [18][22][28] - **CFTC Platinum and Palladium Commercial Net Short Positions**: Relevant data and charts are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [29][30] - **Price Ratios**: Charts of platinum - palladium and platinum - silver price ratios are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [32][33] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum ETF Holdings**: As of January 16th, the total holdings of major overseas platinum ETFs were 75.96 tons [39] - **Palladium ETF Holdings**: As of January 16th, the total holdings of major overseas palladium ETFs were 15.56 tons [42] - **Platinum Inventory**: The inventory of the US platinum exchange remains at a high level. As of January 16th, the CME platinum inventory was 20.64 tons [46] - **Palladium Inventory**: The CME palladium inventory has continued to decline, reaching 6.44 tons as of January 16th [51] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Mineral Platinum**: The platinum production forecast of the top 15 global mines shows that the platinum production of these mines in 2026 will reach 124.24 tons, a 2.5% decrease compared to 127.47 tons in 2025 [56][57] - **Mineral Palladium**: The production data of the top 10 global palladium mines shows that the palladium production of these mines in 2026 will reach 147.73 tons, a 1.1% decrease compared to 149.37 tons in 2025 [59] - **China's Platinum Imports**: As of November, China's cumulative platinum imports reached 91.64 tons, a slight 4.82% year - on - year decrease [62] - **China's Palladium Imports**: China's cumulative palladium imports were 31.21 tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [65] - **Automobile Production**: Data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US are presented, including production volume and year - on - year changes, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [66][69][71] - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global platinum and palladium supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2025 are presented, showing supply and demand data in different years [75][76] 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Charts of NYMEX platinum 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [79][80] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Charts of NYMEX palladium 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [87][89][93] - **Cross - Market Spread**: Charts of the price difference between the London spot platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price, and the price difference between the London spot palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term outlook: Hold [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium - term, it is likely that the asphalt valuation will decline in the second half of the year. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period are expected to limit the upward space of asphalt valuation. The weak and volatile cost side of crude oil will also restrict the upward space of asphalt's unilateral price [16]. - In the short - term, due to Venezuela's ongoing production increase and the release of its maritime inventory, which will suppress asphalt prices, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Review**: The price trend of the asphalt's main contract in recent months is presented, with supply - demand and cost factors marked at different time points [13][14]. - **Medium - term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and major refineries are expected to resume some production, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while local refineries are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium - term. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of the demand side has improved slightly compared to previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected, and the overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure seasonal peak. In terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the central range of wide - range fluctuations in oil prices is expected to move down slightly [16]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: Supply is neutral - bearish as the heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate is rising and overall imports remain strong; demand is bearish as the start - up rates of all sub - sectors on the demand side are weak and the downstream shipment is dull; inventory is neutral - bearish (partially priced in) as there is a problem of weak de - stocking in the overall inventory and the domestic total inventory exceeds expectations; the cost of crude oil is expected to stop falling and stabilize, entering a weak - fluctuation process [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Prices**: The spot price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions are analyzed [20][22][24]. - **Basis Trends**: The basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions are presented [32]. - **Term Structure**: The term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts are analyzed [34]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profits**: The capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit margins of Shandong asphalt are analyzed, along with the relationships between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [41][44][45]. - **Imports**: The import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume of asphalt from different countries are presented, as well as the monthly import volume of Venezuelan oil [49][50][53]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent are analyzed [56]. - **Refinery Profits**: The refining profit margins of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit margin of petroleum coke, are analyzed [59][62]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: The trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory are analyzed [66][67]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The trends of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main asphalt contract are presented [70]. - **Inventory and Price**: The relationships between inventory, profit, and price are analyzed [72][74]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: The asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises are analyzed [78][80][83]. - **Downstream Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes are analyzed [86][88][92]. - **Highway Investment**: The cumulative investment in highway construction and the monthly year - on - year and monthly values of public fiscal expenditures on transportation are analyzed, as well as the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditures [93][96][100]. - **Road - related Machinery**: The monthly sales volumes and working hours of road - related machinery such as rollers and excavators are analyzed [101][105]. - **Related Consumption**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway, road, and water conservancy industries, as well as the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds, are analyzed [108][109]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Positions, Trading Volumes, and Price Volatility**: The trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures are analyzed [114][117][119]. 3.7 Industry Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industry Chain**: The exploration and production links of the crude oil industry chain are presented [123][124]. - **Asphalt Industry Chain**: The production processes and uses of asphalt are introduced [125][127].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On January 14, the Director - General of the Mineral and Coal Directorate of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia stated that the annual nickel ore production target is expected to be about 250 - 260 million tons, and the mine supply is expected to remain tight. Market optimism has risen, and stainless steel has shown a trend of increasing volume and price. In the short term, against the backdrop of tight supply, continuous decline in inventory, and significant cost support, the market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, and prices may show a high - level oscillation pattern, with the reference range for the main contract being 13,900 - 14,650 yuan/ton [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot and Futures Market**: On January 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,015 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 6.28%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.73%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.99% [12]. - **Supply**: In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. In December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled products was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [12]. - **Demand**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 927,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.22%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 46,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,483 tons. Last week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 133,300 tons, 602,400 tons, and 191,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.00% week - on - week; last week, the floating quantity of stainless steel at sea was 32,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.61%, and the unloading quantity was 103,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.46% [12]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,020 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/nickel, and the current profit of iron plants in Fujian was 49 yuan/nickel [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - On January 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,015 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.28%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.73%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.99% [20] - The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 325 yuan (- 24) over the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 125 yuan (+ 6) over the main contract. The position on the disk was 261,387 lots, a week - on - week increase of 15.20% [23] - In terms of the monthly spread, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at 5 (+ 90), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 10 (+ 130) [26] 3. Supply Side - In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48% [31] - According to the sample statistics of MYSTEEL, in December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled products was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [34] - It is estimated by SMM that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in December was 420,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; according to MYSTEEL data, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons in November, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56% [37] - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; from January to November, the cumulative net export volume was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [40] 4. Demand Side - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [45] - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [48] - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; in November, the automobile sales volume was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [51] 5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 883,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.13%. It is expected that the inventory will be slightly reduced this week, with an estimated value of 860,000 tons; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 46,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,483 tons [56] - Last week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 133,300 tons, 602,400 tons, and 191,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.00% week - on - week; last week, the floating quantity of stainless steel at sea was 32,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.61%, and the unloading quantity was 103,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.46% [59] 6. Cost Side - According to WIND data, in November, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%; currently, the quotation of nickel ore with a Ni content of 1.5% is 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 13.3203 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [64] - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,020 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/nickel, and the current profit of iron plants in Fujian was 49 yuan/nickel [67] - Last week, the quotation of chrome ore was 55 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 yuan/dry ton; the quotation of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/50 - base ton. In terms of output, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome in December was 887,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [70] - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is 797 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches 5.88% [73]