Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy on Dips" for crude oil [17] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The heavy oil crack spread can be taken as a profit, while crude oil can be bought on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [15][17] - In 2025, the oil price center will move down, with a bottom margin, and it's difficult to predict a trend. The extremely pessimistic bottom range is expected to be between $45/barrel and $55/barrel. It is recommended to short on rallies [22] - In 2026, the oil price center will reach the bottom, and the price is expected to rise steadily during the peak season, but the increase is still limited. The center is expected to be between $60/barrel and $65/barrel. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on crack spread opportunities [22] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Crude oil rebounded this week. The geopolitical situation in Venezuela did not expand, but there were potential geopolitical expectations between Iran and Israel, causing oil prices to fluctuate with the geopolitical situation [15] - **Supply - Demand Changes**: US commercial crude oil inventories increased, while in the Middle East, production in Venezuela and Iran declined, leading to a marginal decrease. The CPC pipeline export is expected to resume, and overall supply in January is expected to decline slightly [15] - **Macro - Political Situation**: In December, the US CPI was 2.7% year - on - year and + 0.3% month - on - month, and the core CPI was 2.6% year - on - year, slightly lower than the expected 2.7%. Politically, President Trump imposed sanctions on countries trading with Iran, and the geopolitical friction between the US and Iran intensified, but the probability of military strikes is considered low [15] - **Viewpoint Summary**: The heavy oil crack spread can be taken as a profit, and crude oil can be bought on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [15][17] 2. Macro & Geopolitical - **Macro Short - Term High - Frequency Indicators**: Include the US ISM manufacturing PMI, Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, US 10 - year inflation expectation, and US long - short - term spread, which are correlated with WTI oil prices [46] - **Macro Medium - Term Forecast Indicators**: Such as the eurozone investment confidence index, eurozone PMI, US investment confidence index, and US PMI, which are used to predict the macro - economic situation [49] - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The Middle East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are related to WTI oil prices [56] 3. Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: Analyzes the WTI crude oil forward curve, including the M1/M4 month - spread and the M1 price, as well as the forward curves of other crude oils such as Brent, Dubai, and INE [60] - **Inter - Regional Spreads**: Compares the spreads between Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI [63] - **Product Spreads**: Studies the spreads between different oil products such as LGO diesel, gasoline, and diesel, including the RB/HO and LGO/RB spreads [70] - **Crack Spreads**: Analyzes the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US [74][77][80] 4. Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC & OPEC+ Supply**: OPEC and OPEC+ have implemented a series of production - cut and production - increase measures. The production and export of OPEC 12 countries and OPEC+ main member countries are analyzed, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, etc. [86][91][112] - **US Supply**: The US has implemented a series of policies, such as reducing SPR funds, imposing sanctions on Iran and Russia, and planning to purchase SPR. The number of oil wells, rigs, production, and export in the US are also analyzed [117][118] - **Other Supply**: The production of other countries such as Canada, Norway, and Brazil is analyzed [126] 5. Crude Oil Demand - **US Demand**: Includes the US crude oil input, refinery capacity utilization, direct import and export demand, and the demand for refined oil products such as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene [132][134][137] - **Chinese Demand**: Analyzes China's crude oil input, import, refinery profit, and the production and demand of refined oil products such as gasoline and diesel. Micro - demand indicators such as new - energy vehicle penetration and population migration are also considered [154][159][167] - **European Demand**: Focuses on the refinery start - up rate, crude oil input, and the production of refined oil products in 16 European countries [173][178] - **Indian Demand**: Analyzes India's crude oil input, refinery start - up rate, import, and demand [183] - **Other Demand**: Considers the average daily speed of oil tankers and the oil - transportation quality model [187][190] 6. Crude Oil Inventory - **US Inventory**: Includes US commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing inventory, and the inventory of refined oil products such as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene [197][199][201] - **Chinese Inventory**: Analyzes China's crude oil port inventory, gasoline and diesel inventory, and the inventory of refined oil products [206][209][212] - **European Inventory**: Focuses on the ARA inventory and the inventory of 16 European countries, including gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil products [217][222][225] - **Singapore Inventory**: Analyzes Singapore's gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil product inventory [229] - **Fujairah Inventory**: Focuses on the gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil product inventory in Fujairah [234] - **Marine Inventory**: Analyzes the floating storage of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, heavy oil, light oil, and crude oil at sea [239][245][249] 7. Meteorological Disasters - **Crude Oil Supply Area Meteorological Disasters**: Include the US Gulf of Mexico storm model, the Middle East strait storm model, the Canadian wildfire probability model, and the US Gulf of Mexico rainstorm and thunderstorm [255][261] 8. Alternative Data - **Crude Oil Alternative Data**: Such as the in - transit supply of crude oil by sea, the oil - transportation demand model, the shipping freight in the Arabian Sea, and the media - voted probability of the Hormuz Strait blockade, which are related to WTI oil prices [267]

Industry Investment Rating - Short - term outlook: Hold. The downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1] Core View - The raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar cane for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish sugar - crushing in February and the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the supply of imported sugar sources in China is gradually decreasing. As sugar prices fall to a low level, the short - term downside space is limited [9] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry News**: In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%; the cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugar cane crushing volume was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%; the cumulative crushing volume was 598 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. As of January 15, 2026, the sugar production in India reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase from 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 to 518. In December, Brazil exported 2.913 million tons of sugar, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 390,000 tons compared to the previous month. In December, Brazil exported 385,300 tons of sugar to China, an increase of 330,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 56,000 tons compared to the previous month. As of the week of January 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 48, up from 44 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.6629 million tons, up from 1.5823 million tons the previous week [9] - **View and Strategy**: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish sugar - crushing in February. After the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. The current supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing. As sugar prices fall to a low level, the short - term downside space is limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is 92 yuan/ton, the Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread is - 9 yuan/ton, the production - sales area spread is - 200 yuan/ton, the raw - white sugar spread is 98 US dollars/ton, the sugar - alcohol spread is - 1.79 cents/pound. The cost of the March contract within the quota is 4124 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5123 yuan/ton. The short - term recommendation is to wait and see [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [11] 2. Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report presents the price trend of first - grade white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi and the basis between the Nanning spot and the main Zhengzhou sugar contract through charts [17][18] - **Spot - to - Spot Spreads**: It shows the processing sugar basis, production - sales area spreads, Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 spreads, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spreads through charts [20][21][23] - **Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: The report shows the import profit of out - of - quota spot and out - of - quota futures, as well as the spreads of raw sugar 10 - 3, raw sugar 3 - 5, London white sugar 3 - 5, and London white sugar 5 - 8 through charts [24][25][27] - **Raw - White Sugar Spread**: It presents the raw - white sugar spreads of 5 - 5 and 3 - 3 through charts [30][31] - **Raw Sugar Spot Premium or Discount**: It shows the premium or discount of Brazilian and Thai raw sugar through charts [32][33] - **Sugar - Alcohol Ratio**: The sugar - alcohol ratio is in a volatile state, and relevant charts are provided [35][36] 3. Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China through charts [39][40] - **Sugar Imports**: It presents the monthly and annual cumulative sugar imports, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder in China through charts [42][43][45] - **National Sales**: The monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative production - sales progress in China are shown through charts [47][48] - **National Industrial Inventory**: The monthly industrial inventory in China and the inventory in the three - party warehouses in Guangxi are shown through charts [50][51] 4. International Market Situation - **Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, the cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil through charts [55][56][58] - **Production in India**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India are shown through charts [60][61] - **Production in Thailand**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand are shown through charts [63][64] - **Brazilian Shipment Volume**: The sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at Brazilian ports are shown through charts [66][67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The commodity market sentiment was positive this week, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils improved marginally, but the inventory remained relatively high with a slow destocking pace. The apparent demand for rebar increased significantly, with production remaining neutral and inventory fluctuating slightly. Overall, the supply-demand structure improved slightly compared to the previous period. - With the marginal recovery of demand and the support from the cost side, the downside support for the black series is gradually emerging. Although it still operates within the bottom oscillation range in the short term, the further downward space is relatively limited. The strategy maintains a slightly bullish stance while observing. - Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand recovery and the progress of hot-rolled coil destocking. Also, be vigilant about the short-term disturbance of market rumors to sentiment. If the "dual carbon" - related policies are strengthened or the cost side strengthens again, it may drive steel prices upward [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: This week, the rebar production was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last week, with a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. Long - process production was 1.5634 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.37%. Short - process production was 0.3396 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year increase of 38.50%. The long - process production continued to decline slightly, while the short - process production remained at a relatively high level. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%. The blast furnace profit of rebar in East China was about 65 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level, and the valley - electricity profit was 69 yuan/ton, with the electric - furnace profit narrowing compared to the previous period. The rebar basis was 137 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis was - 5 yuan/ton, with neutral valuations [11]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar this week was 1.9034 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.80% and a year - on - year increase of 8.80%. The demand was neutral but still in the seasonally weak range, with a slow recovery pace at the terminal. The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.1416 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.89% and a year - on - year increase of 0.16%, with relatively neutral comprehensive demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The rebar inventory this week was 4.3807 million tons, an increase of 120,800 tons compared to the same period last year, remaining at a relatively low level. The hot - rolled coil inventory was 3.6233 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 460,000 tons (+14.50%). Affected by the late Spring Festival, the destocking pace of hot - rolled coils this year was slower than in previous years, and the current inventory pressure remained relatively high [11]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a slightly bullish stance while observing. Focus on the sustainability of demand recovery and the progress of hot - rolled coil destocking, and be vigilant about market rumors [11][12][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are presented, including the price and trading volume of rebar in different regions (North, East, South), the basis and price differences of rebar futures contracts (January, May, October), the price and basis of hot - rolled coils in different regions and futures contracts, the price differences between hot - rolled and rebar futures, the price differences between China and other regions (Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe) for hot - rolled coils, and the prices and price differences of cold - rolled coils, color - coated coils, and galvanized sheets [24][26][29]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Charts show the rebar and hot - rolled coil disk profits, the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils from Steel Union, the blast furnace and electric - furnace profits of rebar, and the spot profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [78][80][82]. - **Inventory**: Charts display the total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory of rebar, the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan and 55 rolling enterprises, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils in China, including large - sample, social, and factory inventories [90][92][101]. 3.4 Cost Side - Charts show the ratio of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, daily average pig iron and crude steel production, the price of square billets, the price difference between rebar and billets, the price of heavy scrap, crushed materials, and scrap steel, and the cumulative consumption of scrap steel and its consumption in electric - furnace smelting [107][110][113]. 3.5 Supply Side - Charts present the production, cumulative year - on - year production, and capacity utilization rate of rebar, as well as the actual production, cumulative year - on - year production, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils [127][130][132]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - **Demand**: Charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the production and export volume of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [139][142][147]. - **Import - Export**: Charts display the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates [154][156][159].

成本支撑持续下移， 基本面拐点仍需等待 氧化铝周报 2026/01/17 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 04 需求端 02 期现价格 05 供需平衡 03 供给端 06 库存 01 周度评估 周度要点小结 ◆ 期货价格：截至1月16日下午3时，氧化铝指数周内下跌3%至2745元/吨，持仓减少7.4万手至70.3万手。本周氧化铝期货价格高位回落，现货价格低迷，期货价格反弹仍难有持 续性。基差方面，山东现货价格报2565元/吨，贴水02合约52元/吨。月差方面，连1-连3月差收盘录得-37元/吨。 ◆ 现货价格：本周各地区氧化铝现货价格延续下跌趋势，广西、贵州、河南、山东、山西和新疆地区现货价格分别下跌25元/吨、下跌25元/吨、下跌25元/吨、下跌30元/吨、下跌 35元/吨、下跌40元/吨。累库趋势持续，多数地区现货价格仍然承压。 ◆ 库存：周内氧化铝社会总库存累库7.5万吨至539.3万吨，其中电解铝厂内库存 ...

高价抑制需求，铝价冲高回落 铝周报 2026/01/17 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 基本面评估 | 原铝基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差（元/吨、美元/吨） 月产量（万吨） | 冶炼利润（元/吨） | 库存（万吨） | 需求 | 进口盈亏（元/吨） | | 数据 | 华东：-190（-95） 375 LME：+8.9（+0.6） | +8206.1 （-2.1） | 74.9（+3.1） | 铝材环节开工 率微升 | -2551.3（+316.1） | | 多空评分 | 0 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | | 简评 | 国内现货基差走弱， 国内电解铝开工 | 冶炼利润微减，仍 | 铝锭库存增加 | 消费改善还不 | 进口亏损 ...

1. Report Recommendation - The report recommends short - term waiting and observing in the trading strategy, suggesting waiting for inventory digestion [11][13] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental situation of the oil market is weak, with high production and low exports in major palm oil - producing areas leading to high inventories, and domestic inventories of three major oils also at a relatively high level. However, looking forward, there are optimistic expectations such as the downward adjustment of Malaysia's production forecast, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in U.S. biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026 [11] - Oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [12] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, and Indonesia has cancelled the B50 plan. In January, the estimated consumption of U.S. soybean oil decreased compared to December, while India's vegetable oil imports in December increased. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December increased, production decreased, and exports increased. Malaysia's 2026 palm oil production is expected to be lower than in 2025, and its production in January 2026 decreased. As of January 9, domestic inventories of three major oils decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [11] - **Viewpoint Summary**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but there are optimistic long - term expectations, so short - term waiting and observing are recommended [11] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is neutral to low, the biodiesel spread and inventory are neutral, the import profit is negative, the high production and inventory in major producing countries are negative, and other factors are neutral. Oil prices may be near the bottom [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies recommend waiting and observing [13] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - The document presents multiple charts showing the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil contracts, and the monthly spread of various oil contracts from 2022 - 2026 [22][23][26][28][30] 3.3. Supply Side - The document shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil from 2021 - 2025, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans from 2022 - 2026, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil from 2021 - 2025 [34][36][37][38] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - The document presents charts of the total inventory of three major domestic oils from 2022 - 2026, India's imported vegetable oil inventory from 2021 - 2025, the near - month import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil from 2022 - 2026, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil plants from 2022 - 2026, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil from 2022 - 2026, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 [42][44][46][48][50] 3.5. Cost Side - The document shows charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil from 2022 - 2026, as well as the near - month shipping price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed from 2022 - 2026 [53][56] 3.6. Demand Side - The document presents charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil from 2022 - 2026, and the spread between palm oil and diesel, and soybean oil and heating oil from 2022 - 2026 [61][64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic tin price increased by 14.95% week-on-week. The main reason is the low tin inventory and the market's optimism about the long-term tin demand in AI computing power. Speculative funds significantly increased their positions, driving up the futures price, and both futures and spot prices rose simultaneously. Although the supply side is generally stable and the social inventory has significantly rebounded, the capital game under the low inventory expectation will still dominate the tin price trend, and the tin price may fluctuate sharply at a high level in the short term [11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In November 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The import volume of tin ore and its concentrates in November was 15,099 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.81% and a year-on-year increase of 24.42%. Myanmar, the largest import source, imported 7,190.21 tons that month, a month-on-month increase of 203.79% and a year-on-year increase of 133.38%; the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the second-largest import source, imported 3,225.34 tons that month, a month-on-month increase of 19.45% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.27% [12]. - Supply side: The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained at a high level, with this week's operating rate at 87.81%, basically the same as the previous period. However, restricted by the tight raw material supply, there is limited room for further improvement. Jiangxi is still affected by the insufficient supply of scrap materials, the supply of crude tin is tight, and the refined tin output continues to be at a low level. Overall, against the background that the raw material constraints have not been significantly alleviated, the operation of domestic smelters mainly remains stable at a high level [12]. - Demand side: Downstream consumer electronics are still in the traditional off-season, and terminal orders are weak. However, the demand from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers provides some support for tin solder. The overall operating rate of tin solder enterprises remains stable. Downstream solder and electronic enterprises continue the low-inventory strategy, and spot purchases are mainly for rigid needs, with limited willingness to actively replenish inventory. As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,636 tons, an increase of 2,560 tons from last Friday [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - No relevant content other than graphs provided 3. Cost Side - No relevant content other than graphs provided 4. Supply Side - No relevant content other than graphs provided 5. Demand Side - The year-on-year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [43]. - No relevant content other than graphs provided 6. Supply - Demand Balance - No relevant content other than graphs provided

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the copper market has cooled down. The copper price is expected to turn into a range - bound pattern to balance supply and demand in the short term, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 98,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 12,400 - 13,300 US dollars/ton. The copper market is affected by factors such as supply tightness, inventory changes, and downstream demand. [12] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to decline, and smelting revenue still relies on by - product sulfuric acid. The processing fee of crude copper remains high. There are labor strikes at the Canadian Capstone Mantoverde copper - gold mine, and Panama plans to decide on the future of the Cobre Panama copper mine by June. The copper production of Luoyang Molybdenum and Ivanhoe Mines in Q4 2025 met expectations. [11] - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 846,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory of SHFE increased by 33,000 tons to 213,000 tons, LME increased by 6,000 tons to 144,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 19,000 tons to 489,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 106,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. [11] - Import and Export: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase, and the annual cumulative imports were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.0%, with the annual cumulative imports of 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. [11] - Demand: The copper price remains high, and downstream buyers purchase on dips. The expected increase in fixed - asset investment of the State Grid during the "15th Five - Year Plan" provides demand support. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods rebounded, while that of cables declined. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread first widened and then narrowed, the substitution of scrap copper remained small, and the operating rate of scrap copper rods only slightly rebounded. [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The copper price rose first and then fell. The SHFE copper main contract fell 0.8% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 1.01% to 12,822.5 US dollars/ton. [18] - Spot Price: Details of spot prices of various copper products such as Yangtze River non - ferrous price, Guangdong Nanhai price, and prices of different copper materials are provided. [20] - Premiums and Discounts: The domestic copper spot basis weakened after the contract change, and on Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the futures. LME inventory increased, the cancelled warrant ratio decreased, and Cash/3M remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 61.5 US dollars/ton on Friday. The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. [25] - Market Structure: Relevant figures of SHFE and LME copper market structure are presented. [27] 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrate declined to - 46.5 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue. [32] - Import - Export Ratio: Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only relevant figures are provided. [34] - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The spot import loss of copper first widened and then narrowed. [37] - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 846,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 106,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. SHFE inventory increased, and the copper warrant quantity increased by 49,201 tons to 160,417 tons. LME inventory increased, mainly from Asian warehouses, and the cancelled warrant ratio decreased. [40][43][46] 4. Supply Side - Production: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper production in December 2025 increased by about 75,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in January 2026. According to NBS data, the domestic refined copper production in November 2025 was 1.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.80%. [50] - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase, and the annual cumulative imports were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.0%, with the annual cumulative imports of 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. Other import and export data of copper products such as anode copper, refined copper, and recycled copper are also provided. [53][56] 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: The global electrolytic copper consumption is mainly in power (46%), home appliances (15%), etc. In China, it is mainly in construction (26%), equipment (23%), etc. [72] - PMI: China's official manufacturing PMI in December 2025 strengthened slightly, and Caixin manufacturing PMI returned above the boom - bust line. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided, with improvement in Japan and the UK, and weakening in the euro area, the US, and India. [75] - Downstream Industry Output: In November 2025, the output of some downstream copper industries such as automobiles, freezers, and washing machines increased year - on - year, while that of air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. The cumulative output from January to November also showed different trends. [78] - Real Estate Data: In November 2025, domestic real estate data remained weak, with year - on - year declines in new construction, construction, sales, and completion, and the decline rates widened. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline in November. [80] - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: The operating rates of different downstream copper enterprises such as copper rod, copper wire, and copper tube enterprises showed different trends in December 2025 and are expected to change in January 2026. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods rebounded, the scrap copper rod operating rate slightly recovered, the cable operating rate continued to decline, and the copper strip operating rate slightly rebounded. [83][95][98] - Refined - Scrap Copper Price Spread: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread first widened and then narrowed, and the refined - scrap copper price spread on Friday was reported at 3,391 yuan/ton. [103] 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 76,102 to 1,287,180 lots (bilateral), with the near - month 2602 contract holding 125,612 lots (bilateral). [108] - Foreign Fund Positions: As of January 13, CFTC funds remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 16.4%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds slightly decreased (as of January 9). [111]

徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 季节性检修来临， 继续做多EB连1-连2 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2026/01/17 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：国际地缘冲突升级，德法驻军格林兰岛，能化板块大幅反弹。 估值：苯乙烯周度涨幅（期货＞现货＞成本），基差走弱，BZN价差下降，EB非一体化装置利润上涨。 成本端：上周华东纯苯现货价格上涨4.98%，纯苯期货活跃合约价格上涨4.87%，纯苯基差无变动0元/吨，纯苯开工率高位震荡。 供应端：EB产能利用率70.92%，环比上涨0.31%，同比去年下降-5.82%，较5年同期下降-12.98%。苯乙烯非一体化利润修复，开 工率随之上升。 风险提示：石脑油、纯苯价格大幅下跌，下游三S开工大幅下降。 02 期现市场 期现市场—苯乙烯活跃合约价格反弹 进出口：11月国内纯苯进口量为459.62万吨，环 ...

等待回调择机做多 棉花周报 2026/01/17 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：据USDA数据显示，1月预测2025/26年度全球产量为2600万吨，环比12月预测下调8万吨，较上年度增加20万吨；库存消费比 62.63%，环比12月预测减少1.42个百分点，较上年度增加0.62个百分点。其中1月预测美国产量303万吨，环比12月预测减少7.6万吨，出口 预估维持不变，库存消费比30.43%，环比减少2.17个百分点。巴西产量预估持平为408万吨；印度产量下调11万吨至512万吨；中国产量上调 22万吨至751万吨。据巴西对外贸易秘书处(Secex)公布的出口数据显示，巴西12月出口原棉45万吨，同比增加10万吨，环比前一个月增加5 万吨。其中，12月对中国出口原棉14.6万吨，同比增加6万吨，环比前一个月增加4万吨。据USDA数 ...