Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates remains high due to the U.S. economic data not exceeding expectations, and the risk in the domestic equity market has been released. The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector is positive [2][6][7][10]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some are supported by supply shortages or expected demand increases, while others face over - supply problems [2][6][7][8]. Summary by Metal Copper - The LME copper price fell 0.83% to $9891/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 79650 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 200 to 158375 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 0.85 million tons (SMM caliber). The price is supported by tight raw material supply and approaching peak season [2]. - The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract today is 79200 - 80500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9800 - 10000 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum price fell 0.92% to $2590/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20625 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the price is expected to be range - bound in the short term due to mixed factors [4]. - The reference range for the domestic main contract is 20560 - 20820 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2570 - 2620 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - The SHFE lead index fell 0.03% to 16861 yuan/ton. The lead market shows a weak supply - demand pattern, but with the high Fed rate - cut expectation, the lead price is expected to be strong [6]. Zinc - The SHFE zinc index fell 0.73% to 22121 yuan/ton. The zinc market has an over - supply situation in the industry, but due to the high Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern [7]. Tin - Tin prices continued to trade in a narrow range. Supply is expected to decline significantly in September, and demand is in the off - season. Tin prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro environment is positive, and the nickel price is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract this week is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index was flat, and the LC2511 contract rose 2.14%. The supply - demand pattern is improving, and the reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2511 contract today is 71200 - 75400 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - The alumina index fell 0.4% to 2978 yuan/ton. After a sharp decline, the downside space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract fell 0.46% to 12855 yuan/ton. The market has entered a consolidation phase due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak downstream demand [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 contract fell 0.35% to 20215 yuan/ton. The price is expected to remain high in the short term due to the approaching peak season, supply disruptions, and increased market activity [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental situation will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have room for growth. It is a good opportunity for left - hand side layout [2]. - For methanol, the short - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but the downside space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the price is expected to move within a range at a low valuation. It is recommended to pay attention to going long at low prices [6]. - For rubber, it is advisable to maintain a bullish view in the medium - term. In the short - term, it is expected that the rubber price will be strong, and a bullish approach is recommended, buying on dips and exiting quickly [12]. - For PVC, given the situation of strong domestic supply, weak demand, and high valuation, and the weakening export expectation, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [14]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover in the long - term. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long - term [20]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. - For PX, the valuation has support at the bottom, and it is recommended to follow the crude oil and look for long - buying opportunities on dips after the peak season arrives [23][24]. - For PTA, it is recommended to follow PX and look for long - buying opportunities on dips after the peak - season downstream performance improves [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the mid - term valuation has a downward pressure [26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 10.80 yuan/barrel, a 2.20% decline, at 481.00 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG weekly oil product data showed inventory increases in gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil products [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 68.00 yuan/ton, a 2.40% decline, at 2760.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 113.00 yuan/ton, a 3.21% decline, at 3412.00 yuan/ton [1]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: On September 4, the 01 contract fell 4 yuan/ton to 2378 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 8 yuan/ton with a basis of - 133. Domestic production has further increased, and coal prices have slightly declined. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high level, and the import pressure remains. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and the profit has continuously improved, but the traditional demand is still weak [4]. - **Urea**: On September 4, the 01 contract remained stable at 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat with a basis of - 14. The enterprise profit has further declined, the supply - side production has significantly decreased, and the demand is weak. The port inventory has continued to increase [6]. - **Rubber**: NR and RU fluctuated strongly. Due to heavy rain in Thailand in the next 2 - 10 days, the risk of floods has significantly increased, and the rubber price is likely to rise. As of September 5, 2025, the operating load of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 58.70%, down 4.08 percentage points from last week and 0.22 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 69.07%, down 5.5 percentage points from last week and 9.60 percentage points from the same period last year [9][11]. - **PVC**: The PVC01 contract rose 5 yuan to 4883 yuan. The cost side remained stable, the overall PVC operating rate was 76%, a 1.6% decline. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a 0.1% decline. The factory inventory was 31.2 (+0.6) million tons, and the social inventory was 89.6 (+4.4) million tons [14]. - **Styrene**: The spot price increased, and the futures price decreased, with the basis strengthening. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. The port inventory has continued to increase significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread is expected to recover, and the styrene price may rebound when the inventory starts to decline [16][18]. - **Polyethylene**: The futures price decreased. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The supply - side has only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is decreasing from a high level. The downstream average operating rate is 40.5%, a 0.20% increase [20]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price decreased. The supply - side still has 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with relatively high pressure. The demand - side downstream operating rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [21]. - **PX**: The PX11 contract fell 130 yuan to 6680 yuan. The PX load in China was 83.3%, a 1.3% decline; the Asian load was 75.6%, a 0.7% decline. The PTA load was 72.8%, a 2.4% increase. In August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 376,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2,000 tons [23]. - **PTA**: The PTA01 contract fell 76 yuan to 4656 yuan. The PTA load was 72.8%, a 2.4% increase. The downstream load was 91%, a 0.7% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 29 was 2.12 million tons, a decrease of 84,000 tons [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The EG01 contract rose 26 yuan to 4357 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 74.1%, a 1% decline. The downstream load was 91%, a 0.7% increase. The port inventory was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector mainly includes beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. The sector shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, oils and agricultural by - products maintain a volatile market, soft commodity sugar has a slight fluctuation, cotton is weakly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are weakly and narrowly consolidating. Strategies suggest building option combination strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various agricultural product futures contracts, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, eggs, etc. For example, the latest price of soybean (A2511) is 3,958, with a price change of - 6 and a change rate of - 0.15% [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. Different agricultural product options have different PCR values and changes. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean (A2511) is 0.44, with a change of - 0.01, and the open interest PCR is 0.43, with a change of 0.01 [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels of option underlyings are determined by the strike prices where the maximum open interest of call and put options are located. For example, the pressure level of soybean (A2511) is 4,100, and the support level is 3,900 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report presents the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various agricultural product options. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean (A2511) is 10.585, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.95, with a change of - 0.13 [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Agricultural Product Options 3.5.1 Oils and Oilseeds Options - **Soybeans (A2511, B2511)**: Based on the USDA crop growth report and steel - union data, the fundamentals and market trends of soybeans are analyzed. Option strategies include building a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal (M2511) and Rapeseed Meal (RM2511)**: Analyze the fundamentals such as soybean crushing volume and开机率. Option strategies involve a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [9] - **Palm Oil (P2510), Soybean Oil (Y2511), and Rapeseed Oil (OI2511)**: Analyze the fundamentals of oils such as production, exports, and inventories. Option strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [10] - **Peanuts (PK2510)**: Analyze the fundamentals such as market prices and supply - demand relationships. Option strategies include a bear spread strategy for direction and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [11] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs (LH2511)**: Analyze the supply and demand fundamentals of pigs. Option strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot long - hedging [11] - **Eggs (JD2510)**: Analyze the fundamentals such as egg production and demand. Option strategies include a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12] - **Apples (AP2601)**: Analyze the fundamentals such as cold - storage inventory. Option strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12] - **Jujubes (CJ2601)**: Analyze the fundamentals such as inventory and market transactions. Option strategies include a short - neutral strangle option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot long - hedging [13] 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar (SR2511)**: Analyze the fundamentals such as inventory and new - season production. Option strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [13] - **Cotton (CF2511)**: Analyze the fundamentals such as cotton growth and production expectations. Option strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot long - hedging [14] 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn (C2511) and Starch (CS2511)**: Analyze the fundamentals such as inventory and demand. Option strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content in the provided document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on energy - chemical options, covering various sectors such as energy, polyolefins, polyesters, and alkalis. It analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and option factors of different underlying assets and provides corresponding option strategies and suggestions [3][9]. - It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option - Underlying Futures Market Overview - Multiple energy - chemical option underlying futures are presented, including details like the latest price, price change, change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2510) is 484, with a price drop of 8 and a decline rate of 1.67% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - The volume - open interest PCR data of various option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option - underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.61 with a change of 0.08, and the open interest PCR is 0.77 with a change of 0.06 [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 600 and the support level is 450 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 26.005, and the weighted implied volatility is 29.16 with a change of 1.62 [7]. 3.3 Strategy and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - Class Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamentals are healthy with OPEC's supply restraint. The market shows a short - term upward resistance and decline. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - Class Options - **Methanol**: The import volume increases, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory is decreasing. The market shows a wide - range weak oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Polyolefin - Class Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory shows a mixed trend. The market is weak. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.4 Rubber Options - **Rubber**: The tire production capacity utilization rate shows different trends. The market is short - term weak. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.3.5 Polyester - Class Options - **PTA**: The inventory is decreasing, and the downstream load is rising. The market shows a rebound resistance and decline. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.3.6 Alkali - Class Options - **Caustic Soda**: The production capacity utilization rate decreases in most regions. The market shows an oscillatory trend. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is decreasing. The market shows an oscillatory trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.3.7 Urea Options - The port inventory increases, and the enterprise inventory is under pressure. The market shows a low - level oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stock market review: The Shanghai Composite Index, large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks showed a market trend of gradually declining on the long side [3]. - Financial options volatility analysis: The implied volatility of financial options gradually increased and fluctuated at a relatively high level [3]. - Financial options strategies and suggestions: For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a long-biased buyer strategy and a bull spread strategy for call options; for index options, it is suitable to construct a long-biased seller strategy, a bull spread strategy for call options, and an arbitrage strategy between synthetic long futures of options and short futures [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all showed declines, with the CSI 1000 having the largest decline of -1.46%. The trading volume of each index also decreased to varying degrees [4]. 3.2 Option - Underlying ETF Market Overview - Most ETFs showed declines, with the ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF and E Fund STAR 50 ETF having relatively large declines of -2.08% and -2.05% respectively. Only the ChiNext ETF showed an increase of 0.77% [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of most option varieties showed changes, which can be used to describe the strength of the option - underlying market and whether the underlying market has a turning point [6][7]. 3.4 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of each option variety can be observed from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [8][10]. 3.5 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each option variety fluctuated, and the weighted implied volatility was calculated using the volume - weighted average of the current and next - month option contracts [11][12]. 3.6 Strategies and Suggestions - The financial options sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board. For each sector, some varieties are selected to provide option strategies and suggestions, including directional strategies, volatility strategies, and spot long - covered strategies [13]. - **Financial stocks sector (SSE 50ETF, SSE 50)**: The SSE 50ETF showed a long - term upward trend followed by a high - level decline. It is recommended to construct a short - biased long combination strategy for volatility and a spot long - covered strategy [14]. - **Large - cap blue - chip stocks sector (SSE 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF, CSI 300)**: The SSE 300ETF showed a short - term long - term upward trend followed by a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot long - covered strategy [15]. - **Large - and medium - sized stocks sector (Shenzhen 100ETF)**: The Shenzhen 100ETF showed a long - term upward trend. It is recommended to construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot long - covered strategy [16]. - **Small and medium - sized stocks sector (SSE 500ETF, Shenzhen 500ETF, CSI 1000)**: The SSE 500ETF and CSI 1000 showed short - term long - term upward trends followed by high - level declines. It is recommended to construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy (for CSI 1000), and a spot long - covered strategy [16][17]. - **ChiNext board (ChiNext ETF, ChinaAMC STAR 50ETF, E Fund STAR 50ETF)**: The ChiNext ETF showed a long - term upward trend followed by a sharp decline. It is recommended to construct a bull call option combination strategy and a spot long - covered strategy [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import costs needs further verification. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to show a range - bound trend, and the oil price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term. The domestic sugar price is generally bearish, while the cotton price may fluctuate at a high level. The egg price may rise steadily in the short - term, and the short - term trend of the hog price is weak, but there is potential support [3][5][10][13][16][18][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, US soybeans fell due to concerns about demand, and there was no new information on Sino - US soybean trade. The domestic soybean meal futures rebounded slightly. Last week, domestic soybean meal and soybeans both accumulated inventory, and the soybean meal inventory was still high. The soybean good rate in the US has declined, and the Brazilian premium has rebounded after a decline. The USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production has decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to start destocking in September, which will support the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the profit and supply pressure at the upper end [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: In August 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased, while production decreased. Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to increase. Before the fourth Sino - US talks in late October or early November, the domestic soybean meal cost will gradually increase. If the US soybeans are purchased after the talks and the South American new crop has a good harvest, the domestic soybean meal price may decline. On Wednesday, the three major domestic oils and fats were weak, with large foreign capital short - selling [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats have fallen due to high valuations and weak commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, factors such as the US biodiesel policy, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, and low inventory support the price center. Palm oil may be bullish in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. As of the end of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi increased year - on - year, while that in Yunnan decreased. The industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased, while that in Yunnan increased [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since July, the domestic sugar import supply has increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the new season. The overall view is bearish. The downward space depends on the international market [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell slightly. The global 2025/26 cotton production and ending inventory are expected to decrease compared to the previous month's forecast. As of August 31, the US cotton good rate decreased but was still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, with the approaching of the peak consumption season and low domestic inventory, the situation may improve. Technically, the cotton price may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The supply was relatively stable, and the market was trading normally. The egg price may continue to be stable with some increases [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in the elimination of laying hens and the increase in demand due to pre - festival stocking, the egg price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the medium - term pressure [18]. Hogs - **Spot Information**: The domestic hog price was mostly stable with some declines. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The hog price may decline today, and some low - price areas may remain stable [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the failure of the expected rebound in the spot price, the market is trading the reality of oversupply. In September, the supply may still be weak, but there is potential support from demand and other factors. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the low - level rebound [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. The fundamentals will support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [6]. - For methanol, supply pressure is increasing, the market is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [3]. - Regarding urea, it is currently in a situation of low valuation and weak drivers, with limited downside space. It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic situation is one of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover in the long - term. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. - For PX, although there is currently a lack of upward drivers, the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and there is support at the lower end of the valuation. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the peak season [23]. - For PTA, the supply has shifted from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and the demand side is improving. It is recommended to follow PX and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is still in excess, and there is downward pressure on the valuation in the medium - term [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 3.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.69%, at 493.20 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oils, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 1.00 yuan/ton, or 0.04%, at 2840.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 30.00 yuan/ton, or 0.85%, at 3512.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Data**: According to the US EIA weekly data, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.57%; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.19%; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.60%; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 2382 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 132 [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic production has further increased, and there is still room for improvement in the future. Import arrivals have increased, and port inventories have accumulated to a high level [3]. - **Demand**: The profit of port MTO has continued to improve, but demand is weak. Traditional demand has not improved significantly, and overall downstream performance is average [3]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract fell 32 yuan/ton to 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of - 14. The futures price broke through the support level on Wednesday, while the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [5]. - **Supply**: The number of maintenance devices has increased, domestic production has decreased, and short - term supply pressure has been relieved. However, enterprise profits are still at a medium - low level [5]. - **Demand**: The production of compound fertilizers has peaked and declined, and domestic agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Exports have increased, and port inventories have risen rapidly. Currently, demand is mainly concentrated in exports [5]. - **Inventory**: Although domestic supply has decreased, demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level compared to the same period last year [5]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [8]. - **Factor Analysis**: Due to heavy rain in Thailand in the next 2 - 10 days, the risk of floods has increased, which may cause the rubber price to rise. Bulls believe that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may limit rubber production growth, the seasonal pattern usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - economic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected [8][9]. - **Industry Data**: As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.78%, 1.76 percentage points lower than the previous week and 3.95 percentage points higher than the same period last year. All - steel tire exports were good. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.57%, 0.19 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.06 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The downstream inventory of semi - steel tire factories was slow to consume. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 126.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.5% from the previous month. China's total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. China's total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 46.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. As of August 31, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 47.34 (- 0.36) million tons [11]. - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14880 (+ 30) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1830 (+ 0) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1840 (+ 5) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9400 (+ 50) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11650 (0) yuan [12]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 10 yuan to 4878 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 198 (+ 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 294 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Cost**: The cost side remained stable, with the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai at 2300 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke at 660 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene at 840 (0) US dollars/ton. The spot price of caustic soda was 870 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 76%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 77.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, and the operating rate of the ethylene method was 73%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% [15]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [15]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 31.2 million tons (+ 0.6), and social inventory was 89.6 million tons (+ 4.4) [15]. - **Strategy**: In the domestic situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook and poor fundamentals, it is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [17]. - **Factor Analysis**: Currently, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. The production of pure benzene has been fluctuating at a moderate level, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and styrene production has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products has been rising [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of styrene was 7000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7040 yuan/ton, an increase of 106 yuan/ton; the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a weakening of 156 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 127.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 344.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton; the spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton; the upstream operating rate was 78.1%, a decrease of 0.40%; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 19.65 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons; the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 43.84%, an increase of 0.24%; the operating rate of PS was 59.90%, an increase of 2.40%, the operating rate of EPS was 58.35%, a decrease of 2.63%, and the operating rate of ABS was 70.80%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [20]. - **Factor Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still support on the cost side. The spot price of polyethylene has remained unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory has decreased from a high level, providing support for the price. The seasonal peak season may be approaching, and the procurement of raw materials for agricultural films has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7247 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 3 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.09%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 45.08 million tons, an increase of 2.38 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 40.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The LL1 - 5 spread was 7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 1 yuan/ton [20]. - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [21]. - **Factor Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, resulting in relatively high supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 6954 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6990 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, a weakening of 11 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 55 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.30 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons, and the port inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.18 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The LL - PP spread was 293 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 16 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. 3.8 Polyester 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract fell 24 yuan to 6810 yuan, the PX CFR price fell 3 US dollars to 843 US dollars, the basis was 99 yuan (+ 1) after conversion at the RMB central parity rate, and the 11 - 1 spread was 48 yuan (- 4) [23]. - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 83.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%, and the operating rate in Asia was 75.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. There were few changes in domestic plants [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of PTA was 70.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. Some PTA plants had maintenance or unexpected shutdowns, while others were in the process of restarting or commissioning [23]. - **Import**: In August, South Korea exported 37.6 million tons of PX to China, an increase of 0.2 million tons compared to the same period last year [23]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory was 389.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24 million tons [23]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 246 US dollars (- 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 94 US dollars (- 3) [23]. - **，**: Currently, the PX operating rate remains high, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA plants, with the overall operating rate at a low level. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory levels, and the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, providing support for the valuation at the lower end. However, due to the lack of upward drivers currently and the reduction in the amount of unexpected PTA maintenance compared to previous expectations, the PXN has limited upward momentum. The valuation is currently at a moderate level, and the terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, a weak and volatile market is observed, suggesting a seller's neutral volatility strategy [2]. - The black - series shows significant fluctuations, suitable for a short - volatility combination strategy [2]. - Precious metals are on an upward trend, recommending a spot hedging strategy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts are presented, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2510) is 80,260, with a price increase of 80 and a trading volume of 9.90 million lots [3]. 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different metal options are provided, which can be used to analyze the strength of the option underlying market and potential turning points. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.32, with a change of 0.03 [4]. 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various metal options are determined based on the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of copper options is 82,000, and the support level is 80,000 [5]. 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different metal options is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 11.67% [6]. 5. Strategy and Recommendations Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on fundamental and market analysis, it is recommended to construct a short - volatility seller's option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum/Alumina**: A bull spread strategy for call options, a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy are recommended [9]. - **Zinc/Lead**: A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are suggested [9]. - **Nickel**: A short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered call strategy are recommended [10]. - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are proposed [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [11]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: A bull spread strategy for call options, a short - neutral short - volatility option seller's combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [12]. Black - Series - **Rebar**: A short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered call strategy are suggested [13]. - **Iron Ore**: A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: A short - volatility strategy is recommended for manganese silicon, and a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended for industrial silicon and polysilicon [14]. - **Glass**: A short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [15].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Based on the current personnel changes at the Federal Reserve and the statements of key figures, combined with the overall marginal weakening of the US labor market, the Fed will enter an interest - rate cut cycle that exceeds market expectations. There is a possibility of three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts in the next three Fed meetings, which will be a significant positive factor for precious metal prices. Silver will outperform gold during the interest - rate cut cycle, causing the gold - silver ratio to decline significantly. It is recommended to buy silver on dips, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract being 809 - 836 yuan/gram and for the main Shanghai silver contract being 9526 - 10500 yuan/kilogram [3]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Gold - **Futures Prices**: Shanghai gold (Au) rose 1.40% to 821.68 yuan/gram, COMEX gold fell 0.51% to 3617.10 dollars/ounce, London gold rose 1.90% to 3556.20 dollars/ounce, and Au(T + D) rose 1.27% to 809.97 yuan/gram [2][4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: COMEX gold trading volume decreased by 40.70% to 21.57 million lots, and open interest increased by 1.19% to 44.38 million lots; SHFE gold trading volume increased by 30.38% to 41.72 million lots, and open interest increased by 3.10% to 44.19 million lots [7]. - **Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 1212 tons, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.15% to 40.25 tons [7]. - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.64% to 984.26 tons [4]. Silver - **Futures Prices**: Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 1.34% to 9918.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX silver fell 0.93% to 41.67 dollars/ounce, London silver rose 0.84% to 40.86 dollars/ounce, and Ag(T + D) fell 0.20% to 9780.00 yuan/kilogram [2][4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: COMEX silver trading volume data is not comprehensively presented, and open interest increased by 0.10% to 15.86 million lots; SHFE silver trading volume increased by 16.61% to 112.89 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.20% to 85.10 million lots [7]. - **Inventory**: COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.42% to 16052 tons, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.97% to 1227.04 tons [7]. - **ETF Holdings**: SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.55% to 15281.40 tons [4]. Other Market Indicators - The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.22%, and the US dollar index was 98.15 [2]. - The Dow Jones Index fell 0.05%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.51%, the Nasdaq Index rose 1.02%, the VIX Index fell 4.78%, the London FTSE 100 Index rose 0.67%, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.88% [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Factors - Fed officials' statements were divided last night, and the US labor market data weakened, increasing the market's expectation of Fed interest - rate cuts and supporting precious metal prices [2]. - Fed Governor Waller supported an interest - rate cut at the next meeting and expected inflation to approach the 2% target in six months; Atlanta Fed President Bostic believed one interest - rate cut this year was appropriate, with the pace adjusted according to inflation and employment [2]. - The US JOLTS job openings in July were 7.181 million, lower than expected and the previous value, indicating labor market weakness, which is a key condition for interest - rate cuts emphasized by Powell [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the "anti - involution" and current macro - relatively loose environment, the short - term valuation of industrial silicon is relatively reasonable, fluctuating with market sentiment and supply - demand changes, and lacking its own driving factors. The medium - to - long - term prospects depend on the redistribution of industrial chain profits and whether the capacity - reduction policy will spread further [2][31]. - In the short term, industrial silicon is still affected by the "weak reality," with high explicit inventory, increased supply pressure after producers increase hedging, lower costs during the wet season, limited demand boost, and the main downstream industry, polysilicon, facing capacity integration. In the medium - term, if the polysilicon capacity integration policy is successfully implemented, the demand for industrial silicon will lack support, and the price may approach the cash cost of most enterprises. If the industrial silicon industry also conducts "anti - involution" actions, the medium - to - long - term price is expected to move closer to the full cost of most enterprises [28][31]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs "Anti - involution" sentiment - influenced follow - up variety - In the rebound of industrial silicon, on June 4, industrial silicon and coking coal bottomed out before the polysilicon futures price. On June 26, driven by the news of a large factory shutting down furnaces, it broke through and rebounded. After a short peak and decline, on July 2, after the polysilicon futures price soared, industrial silicon, as an over - capacity variety, rose with the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the main contract price exceeded 10,000 yuan/ton at most. Polysilicon and coking coal were the star varieties in this "anti - involution" rally, while industrial silicon mainly followed [5]. - Although there were "anti - involution" related news in the industrial silicon industry, such as the initiative put forward by the Sichuan Ferroalloy (Industrial Silicon) Industry Association and the national industrial silicon industry "anti - involution" meeting, their actual impact on the industrial silicon futures was limited. The reasons were the market's desensitization to such information and the weak self - situation of industrial silicon [8]. - The difficulties of industrial silicon in "anti - involution" compared to polysilicon are: relatively low industry entry barriers, a large number of enterprises (nearly 200 effective - capacity enterprises), and unclear capacity - governance paths [9]. Weak reality remains - **Supply side**: In the northwest region, enterprises can maintain a relatively stable operating rate due to stable electricity prices, high utilization of hedging tools, and low production costs of large enterprises with self - supplied power. In the southwest region, the operating rate increased significantly after the wet season and the rebound of spot - futures prices. Since July, the number of open furnaces in major producing areas has increased, and the weekly output has grown for several weeks, so the supply pressure still exists [10][13]. - **Demand side**: In the first half of 2025, the cumulative year - on - year demand for industrial silicon downstream decreased by about 15%, mainly due to the significant reduction in polysilicon production. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of silicone DMC was 1433,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.17%, but the rapid expansion cycle may be approaching the end. From January to July, the cumulative output of polysilicon was 679,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.03%. The proportion of polysilicon in downstream demand decreased from 41% in 2024 to 30% in the first half of 2025, which was the biggest drag on industrial silicon demand. If the polysilicon capacity integration policy is implemented, industrial silicon will face the problem of insufficient effective demand [23]. - **Inventory and profit**: As of the end of August, the explicit inventory of industrial silicon was 688,200 tons, with more than 250,000 tons of warehouse - receipt inventory. Due to the rapid recovery of the supply side, inventory de - stocking was not obvious. After the price rebound, the profit improved. Most enterprises' cash costs were around 8500 - 9000 yuan, and the full cost was around 10,000 yuan. At the current price, enterprises can basically maintain cash flow, but are still in a loss state in terms of full cost. In 2025, the oversupply pattern will continue [26].