Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern is expected to improve marginally next year. Despite short - term downside risks, due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is potential for bottom - fishing [2]. - The current situation of the internal - external price difference of urea has opened the import window. With the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [4]. - The geopolitical situation in Latin America does not provide sufficient bullish support for the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - grade oil products will be significantly raised. Therefore, the valuation of heavy - grade oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [6]. - The seasonal performance of rubber is weak. Currently, a neutral approach is recommended. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be adopted. It is also suggested to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [11]. - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, in the medium term, until there is a substantial reduction in production in the industry, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [13]. - The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively low level, with significant potential for upward valuation repair. By the end of the first quarter, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [16]. - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19]. - In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high. There are no prominent short - term contradictions, but the contract price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. - Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected that PX will maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX following the trend of crude oil on dips [24]. - In the short term, PTA is expected to continue to draw down inventory and then enter the Spring Festival inventory - building period. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PTA on dips and grasp the rhythm [26]. - The overall load of ethylene glycol remains relatively high, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of new device commissioning. If there is no further production reduction in China, the valuation is expected to be compressed [29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 9.90 yuan/barrel, a 2.27% increase, at 445.60 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.53% increase, at 2461.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 50.00 yuan/ton, a 1.66% increase, at 3066.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 5.70 million barrels to 210.81 million barrels, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.85 million barrels to 91.47 million barrels, a 2.06% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.00 million barrels to 93.56 million barrels, a 1.08% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.85 million barrels to 185.03 million barrels, a 1.57% increase [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The geopolitical situation in Latin America does not provide sufficient bullish support for the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - grade oil products will be significantly raised. Therefore, the valuation of heavy - grade oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [6]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: No specific market quotes provided in the given text. - **Strategy Views**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern is expected to improve marginally next year. Despite short - term downside risks, due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is potential for bottom - fishing [2]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton, in Henan by 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, in Hubei remained unchanged, in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton, in Shanxi remained unchanged, and in the Northeast remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 44 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 9 yuan/ton, at 1774 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy Views**: The current situation of the internal - external price difference of urea has opened the import window. With the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [4]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. The long - side of natural rubber RU believed that rubber production in Southeast Asian rubber forests might be limited, rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand was expected to improve. The short - side believed that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, supply was increasing, and demand was in the seasonal off - season. As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from the previous week and down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory pressure of all - steel tire factories increased. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from the previous week and down 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 2.5% increase from the previous week. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.5 tons, a 3% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 41.7 tons, a 1.3% increase. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 54.43 (+2.49) tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15,000 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1900 (- 10) US dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1900 (- 10) US dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9250 (+50) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11450 (+50) yuan [8][9][10]. - **Strategy Views**: The seasonal performance of rubber is weak. Currently, a neutral approach is recommended. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be adopted. It is also suggested to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC05 contract decreased by 52 yuan, at 4888 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4670 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 218 (+102) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 121 (- 11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 730 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 674 (- 14) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.7%, a 1% increase from the previous week; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.7%, a 1.4% increase; the ethylene method was 79.6%, a 0.3% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 44%, a 0.1% increase. The in - factory inventory was 32.8 tons (+1.9), and the social inventory was 111.4 tons (+3.7) [12]. - **Strategy Views**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, in the medium term, until there is a substantial reduction in production in the industry, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [13]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Quotes**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of pure benzene in East China was 5440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 144 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7200 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton; the basis was 172 yuan/ton, an increase of 296 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 124 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 43.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.95 yuan/ton. The spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, an increase of 0.22%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.90%, an increase of 0.11%. The PS operating rate was 58.90%, a decrease of 1.50%; the EPS operating rate was 46.72%, an increase of 3.07%; the ABS operating rate was 69.80%, a decrease of 0.10% [15]. - **Strategy Views**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively low level, with significant potential for upward valuation repair. By the end of the first quarter, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6766 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 91 yuan/ton, a weakening of 29 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase from the previous week. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 39.54 tons, an increase of 2.47 tons from the previous week, and the inventory of traders was 2.93 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease from the previous week. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Views**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6430 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 115 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease from the previous week. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 46.77 tons, a decrease of 2.3 tons from the previous week; the inventory of traders was 20.47 tons, an increase of 2.75 tons from the previous week; the port inventory was 7.11 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease from the previous week. The LL - PP spread was 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Strategy Views**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high. There are no prominent short - term contradictions, but the contract price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX03 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 7282 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 2 US dollars, at 899 US dollars. Converted at the central parity of the RMB, the basis was - 18 yuan (+42), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan (- 12). The PX operating rate in China was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase from the previous week; the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. In terms of facilities, there were few changes in China, a 82 - ton facility in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week, and there were few changes in facilities this week. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 14.6 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of January, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.02 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 339 US dollars (- 2), the South Korean PX - MX was 144 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (- 2) [23]. - **Strategy Views**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected that PX will maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX following the trend of crude oil on dips [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 2 yuan, at 5140 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 40 yuan, at 5060 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan (- 11), and the 5 - 9 spread was 52 yuan (+4). The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week, and there were few changes in facilities this week. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of facilities, 75 - ton bottle chips of Sanfangxiang, 12 - ton bottle chips of Yipu, and 10 - ton chemical fiber of Jindayu were under maintenance, and 50 - ton bottle chips of Sanfangxiang were restarted. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 2% to 72%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 3% to 56%. In terms of inventory, on January 9, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.005 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 50 yuan to 295 yuan, and the on - screen processing fee increased by 15 yuan to 363 yuan [25]. - **Strategy Views**: In the short term, PTA is expected to continue to draw down inventory and then enter the Spring Festival inventory - building period. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PTA on dips and grasp the rhythm [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG05 contract decreased by 65 yuan, at 3815 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 48 yuan, at 3686 yuan. The basis was - 147 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 118 yuan (- 14). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was

文字早评 2026/01/14 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、据央视新闻报道，中国申请 20.3 万颗卫星频轨资源，并非盲目扩张，而是立足长远、统筹布局的国 家行动，关乎你我未来； 2、工信部：2025 年我国工业互联网核心产业规模预计超 1.6 万亿元，带动工业增加值增长约 2.5 万亿 元； 3、工信部召开第十八次制造业企业座谈会，深入实施新一轮十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，自觉抵制 "内卷"； 4、META 计划到 2026 年将 AI 眼镜 Ray-Ban 的产能翻一番，达到 2000 万件。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.11%/0.04%/-0.05%/-0.97%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.36%/0.09%/-0.15%/-1.94%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.37%/-0.03%/-0.52%/-2.96%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.12%/-0.02%/0.15%/-0.14%。 文字早评 | 2026/01/14 【策略观点】 【策略观点】 年初增量资金入场，融资规模大幅走高，市场成交量快速放大。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度 ...

农产品早报 2026-01-14 【策略观点】 目前原糖价格已经跌破巴西乙醇折算价的支撑，在今年 4 月后巴西新榨季生产存在着下调甘蔗制糖比例 的可能性。等待 2 月北半球开始收榨，增产利空基本兑现以后，国际糖价可能会迎来一波反弹。国内当 前进口糖源供应逐步减少，随着糖价跌至低位水平，短线往下空间有限，暂时观望。 棉花 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二郑州白糖期货价格小幅下跌，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5253 元/吨，较前一交易日下跌 32 元/吨，或 0.61%。现货方面，广西制糖集团新糖报价 5310-5380 元/吨，报价较上个交易日持平；云南制糖集团新 糖报价 5180-5230 元/吨，报价较上个交易日持平；加工糖厂主流报价区间 5800 元/吨，报价较上个交易 日持平。广西现货-郑糖主力合约基差 57 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 根据印度食品与公 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the Fed's independence being undermined and the weakening of inflation data, the prices of gold and silver are strong. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 980 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 19050 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Shanghai gold rose 0.14% to 1031.00 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.14% to 21943.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4594.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 86.86 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.18%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.18 [2] - The US CPI data released last night was lower than expected. The year - on - year value of the US CPI in December was 2.7%, in line with expectations and the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, also in line with expectations. The year - on - year value of the US core CPI in December was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7% and the same as the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [2] - The decline in the overall CPI mainly came from the energy - related commodity sub - item, with a year - on - year value of - 3.0% and a month - on - month value of - 0.4%. In the core CPI data, the year - on - year item of rent generally changed little from the previous value. Affected by the Christmas holiday, the decline in the prices of accommodation and air tickets slowed down. The price of medical insurance showed a marginal decline, with the month - on - month value of the health insurance sub - item recording - 1.1% [2] 3.2 Gold and Silver Data Summary - **Gold**: - COMEX gold: The closing price of the active contract was 4594.40 US dollars/ounce, down 0.31% from the previous day; the trading volume was 24.91 million lots, down 11.63%; the position (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) was 48.81 million lots, up 1.30%; the inventory was 1129 tons, down 0.04% [6] - LBMA gold: The closing price was 4623.05 US dollars/ounce, up 0.22% [6] - SHFE gold: The closing price of the active contract was 1027.18 yuan/gram, up 0.09%; the trading volume was 37.08 million lots, down 12.15%; the position was 33.65 million lots, up 0.93%; the inventory was 98.28 tons, up 0.65%; the precipitation funds were 55.305 billion yuan, an inflow of 1.02% [6] - AuT + D: The closing price was 1025.52 yuan/gram, up 0.33%; the trading volume was 58.00 tons, up 1.00%; the position was 187.16 tons, down 0.27% [6] - **Silver**: - COMEX silver: The closing price of the active contract was 86.86 US dollars/ounce, up 2.00%; the position (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) was 15.32 million lots, down 2.64%; the inventory was 13551 tons, down 0.41% [6] - LBMA silver: The closing price was 85.82 US dollars/ounce, up 2.08% [6] - SHFE silver: The closing price of the active contract was 21004.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.28%; the trading volume was 238.26 million lots, down 3.72%; the position was 71.83 million lots, up 0.50%; the inventory was 630.07 tons, down 3.01%; the precipitation funds were 40.737 billion yuan, an inflow of 0.78% [6] - AgT + D: The closing price was 21048.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.70%; the trading volume was 700.30 tons, up 70.30%; the position was 3081.116 tons, up 1.27% [6] 3.3 Gold and Silver Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, and other factors, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX gold price and actual interest rate, the relationship between Shanghai gold price and trading volume, etc. [8][11][12][15] 3.4 Gold and Silver Near - Far Month Structure and Spread Charts - There are charts showing the near - far month structure of COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, and Shanghai silver, as well as the spread between London gold and COMEX gold, and the spread between London silver and COMEX silver [22][23][36][39] 3.5 Management Fund Net Long Positions and ETF Positions - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds and prices, as well as the total positions of gold and silver ETFs [41][42] 3.6 Gold and Silver Internal - External Spread Statistics - The internal - external spreads of gold and silver on January 13, 2026 are calculated, including the spreads between SHFE and COMEX, and between SGE and LBMA [53]

专题报告 2026-01-14 焦煤： 价格上涨与月差相背离时的风险提示作用 报告要点： 我们观测到当盘面上涨的同时月差却走出明显反套时（我们称该现象为价格上涨与月差相背 离），价格容易发生向下的修复，且二者背离的程度越大，回调的概率越大、幅度越明显。其 发生的时间容易出现在 3-5 月、7-9 月、12-1 月，即主力合约交割月前后。此外，主力合约上 的异常高持仓（通常超过 2 万手）可能是价格上涨与月差背离状态下价格将要发生向下调整的 另一个"线索"，需要对此提高警惕。 近年来，交割合格但使用不合格的"科技煤"一直是悬在多头头上的一把利刃，由此衍生出的 使用"烂仓单"进行交割的问题始终挥之不去。 关于"科技煤"的出现，我们认为其根本原因在于焦煤本身并非是良好的可进行标准化的产品， 其众多纷杂的指标注定了交易所在将其标准化为一份合约时只能综合多方因素进行指标标准 的取舍。这也就给了部分参与者通过配煤的方式将低质煤处理成满足交割标准、形成低成本仓 单的空间。 目前市场普遍认为"科技煤"的实际价值低于仓单价值的 100-150 元/吨，即多头参与交割， 接到"科技煤"仓单（即"烂仓单"）后的处理成本需要较正常焦 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a financial options strategy morning report dated January 13, 2026 [1] - The stock market shows a bullish upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks performing well [3] - The implied volatility of financial options has declined to a level below the historical average [3] Group 2: Market Index Data Financial Market Important Indexes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,165.29, up 44.86 (1.09%), with a turnover of 144.62 billion yuan and an increase of 15.7 billion yuan [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,366.91, up 246.76 (1.75%), with a turnover of 215.51 billion yuan and an increase of 32.17 billion yuan [4] - The SSE 50 Index closed at 3,143.74, up 9.41 (0.30%), with a turnover of 18.98 billion yuan and an increase of 1.21 billion yuan [4] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,789.92, up 30.99 (0.65%), with a turnover of 80 billion yuan and an increase of 13.12 billion yuan [4] - The CSI 500 Index closed at 8,249.13, up 192.44 (2.39%), with a turnover of 68.58 billion yuan and an increase of 5.47 billion yuan [4] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 8,357.01, up 227.83 (2.80%), with a turnover of 82.76 billion yuan and an increase of 12.22 billion yuan [4] Option - related ETFs - The SSE 50 ETF closed at 3.218, up 0.009 (0.28%), with a trading volume of 5.443 million shares and a turnover of 1.749 billion yuan [5] - The SSE 300 ETF closed at 4.913, up 0.028 (0.57%), with a trading volume of 13.3308 million shares and a turnover of 6.53 billion yuan [5] - The SSE 500 ETF closed at 8.416, up 0.200 (2.43%), with a trading volume of 5.7152 million shares and a turnover of 4.767 billion yuan [5] Option Factors - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 1.1017 million contracts, the open interest was 1.3001 million contracts, the trading volume PCR was 0.59, and the open interest PCR was 0.99 [6] - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the trading volume was 1.6113 million contracts, the open interest was 1.3715 million contracts, the trading volume PCR was 0.74, and the open interest PCR was 1.00 [6] - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the trading volume was 2.4744 million contracts, the open interest was 1.3823 million contracts, the trading volume PCR was 0.67, and the open interest PCR was 1.46 [6] Group 3: Option Strategies and Suggestions General Strategies - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct bullish seller strategies and call option bull spread combination strategies [3] - For index options, it is suitable to construct bullish seller strategies, call option bull spread combination strategies, and arbitrage strategies between synthetic option futures long positions and futures short positions [3] Sector - specific Strategies - Financial stocks (SSE 50, SSE 50 ETF): Construct call option bull spread combination strategies, seller - biased long - position combination strategies, and spot long - position covered strategies [14] - Large - cap blue - chip stocks (CSI 300, SSE 300 ETF, Shenzhen 300 ETF): Construct call option bull spread combination strategies, short - volatility strategies of selling call + put options, and spot long - position covered strategies [14] - Small and medium - cap stocks (SSE 500 ETF, Shenzhen 500 ETF, CSI 1000): Construct call option bull spread combination strategies, short - volatility strategies of selling call + put options, and spot long - position covered strategies [15][16] - Large - and medium - cap stocks (Shenzhen 100 ETF): Construct short - volatility strategies of selling call + put options and spot long - position covered strategies [15] - ChiNext stocks (ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF, E Fund STAR 50 ETF, ChiNext ETF): Construct short - volatility strategies and spot long - position covered strategies [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, oils and by - products maintain a volatile market, soft commodity sugar fluctuates slightly, cotton consolidates strongly, and grains such as corn and starch are narrowly bullish [2]. - Strategies suggest constructing option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product options have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2603) is 4,336, up 29 with a 0.67% increase, trading volume is 2.35 million lots (up 0.50 million lots), and open interest is 5.67 million lots (down 0.16 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and turning points. For instance, the trading volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.65 (up 0.30), and the open interest PCR is 0.91 (down 0.05) [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlyings are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,500 and the support level is 4,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility reflects market expectations. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 13.035%, and the weighted implied volatility is 15.01% (down 0.97%) [6]. 3.5 Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: The fundamental situation shows that the US sold about 666,000 tons of soybeans to China in the week from January 5th to January 9th. The market has shown a short - term bullish rebound. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The average daily提货量 of major oil mills decreased slightly week - on - week, and the basis decreased slightly. The market has shown an oversold rebound. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory in Malaysia in December is expected to exceed 3 million tons, suppressing the rebound of the oil sector. The market has shown a rebound with upper pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The market price is stable, but the peak - season demand is lower than expected. The market has shown a short - term bullish rise followed by a rapid decline. The strategy is a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 By - product Options - **Live Pig**: The average slaughter weight increased slightly, and the supply is expected to increase in March 2026. The market has shown a weak bearish oversold rebound. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [10]. - **Egg**: The inventory of laying hens decreased slightly month - on - month in December 2025. The market has shown a rebound with upper pressure. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling strategy [11]. - **Apple**: The total sales volume decreased significantly compared with last year. The market has shown a continuous upward and high - level volatile trend with upper pressure. Option strategies include constructing a bullish call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The raw material acquisition in Xinjiang is completed, and the market is priced according to quality. The market has shown a weak bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a wide - straddle option selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The domestic processing cost is high, and the external market shows signs of bottoming. The market has shown a weak bearish oversold rebound. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The national new - season cotton inspection volume increased year - on - year, and the inventory further rebounded. The market has shown a short - term bullish rise. The strategy is a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The inventory in northern ports has not yet accumulated, and the inventory in Guangdong ports is at a certain level. The market has shown a rebound with lower support. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling strategy [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [8]. - Strategies focus on constructing option portfolios mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts are presented, including details on the latest price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2603) is 437, with a 0.05% increase, a trading volume of 5.29 million lots, and an open - interest increase of 0.12 million lots [3]. 3.2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR (Put - Call Ratio) indicators of various energy - chemical options are provided, including volume PCR, volume PCR change, open - interest PCR, and open - interest PCR change. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.47 with a 0.03 change, and the open - interest PCR is 0.53 with a 0.04 change [4]. 3.3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical options are given, along with information on the at - the - money strike price, pressure points, pressure - point offsets, support points, support - point offsets, maximum call open interest, and maximum put open interest. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 540, and the support point is 420 [5]. 3.4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 33.845%, and the weighted implied volatility change is 2.25% [6]. 3.5. Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Energy Options (Crude Oil and LPG)** - For crude oil, the fundamental situation shows that OPEC+ is expected to maintain the original production suspension policy, and Nigeria's crude oil production is increasing. The market is in a weak - rebound trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - For LPG, the supply has no significant increase, and the chemical demand supports the price. The market is in a downward - oscillating trend. Strategies are similar to crude oil, including short - biased option combinations and long collar strategies [9]. - **Alcohol Options (Methanol and Ethylene Glycol)** - Methanol production and capacity utilization are slightly increasing. The market shows an oversold - rebound trend. Strategies include constructing neutral - biased option combinations and long collar strategies [9]. - Ethylene glycol's polyester load is stable, and the market is in a weak - downward trend. Strategies include short - volatility strategies and long collar strategies [10]. - **Olefin Options (PVC)** - PVC inventory is increasing, and the market is in a rebound - after - decline trend. Strategies include a bull - spread combination for call options and long collar strategies for spot hedging [10]. - **Rubber Options** - The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao is increasing. The market shows a warming - up trend. Strategies include constructing neutral - biased option combinations [11]. - **Polyester Options (PTA)** - PTA load is slightly increasing, and the market is in a short - term strong rebound trend. Strategies include constructing neutral - biased option combinations [11]. - **Alkali Options (Caustic Soda and Soda Ash)** - Caustic soda's production capacity utilization is increasing, and the market is in a weak - downward trend. Strategies include a bear - spread combination and long collar strategies [12]. - Soda ash's inventory is increasing, and the market is in a low - level weak - oscillating trend. Strategies include short - volatility combinations and long collar strategies [12]. - **Urea Options** - Urea's supply - demand difference is decreasing, and the market is in a short - term weak trend. Strategies include constructing long - biased option combinations and long collar strategies [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility seller strategy can be constructed as they are trending upward [2]. - For the black series, which show large - amplitude fluctuations, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals, which are rebounding, a bull spread combination strategy can be built [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2602) is 103,320, with a change of 560 and a percentage change of 0.54% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The report shows the volume and open - interest PCR of different metal options. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.45 with a change of - 0.13, and the open - interest PCR is 0.65 with no change [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: It provides the pressure and support levels of each metal option from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of copper is 110,000 and the support level is 98,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The report lists the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and other related data of different metal options. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 35.36%, and the weighted implied volatility is 37.69% with a change of 2.62% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals (e.g., Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, etc.)** - **Copper**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals and market trends, directional, volatility, and spot - hedging strategies are proposed. For example, a bull spread combination strategy of call options can be constructed for directional trading [8]. - **Aluminum**: Similar to copper, strategies are provided according to its fundamentals and market trends, including a bull spread combination strategy for direction and a short - option combination strategy for volatility [10]. - **Zinc**: Strategies involve volatility and spot - hedging, such as a short - option combination strategy to obtain time value [10]. - **Precious Metals (e.g., Silver)** - For silver, considering its fundamentals and market trends, directional, volatility, and spot - hedging strategies are recommended. For example, a bull spread combination strategy of call options can be used for direction [13]. - **Black Series (e.g., Rebar, Iron Ore, etc.)** - **Rebar**: Given its supply - demand situation and market trends, volatility and spot - hedging strategies are suggested, such as a short - option combination strategy to obtain time value [14]. - **Iron Ore**: Strategies include volatility and spot - hedging, like a short - option combination strategy to gain time value and directional returns [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term due to weakened Fed rate - cut expectations, geopolitical factors, tight copper mine supply, and high prices suppressing consumption [2][3] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain high, driven by the strength of overseas supply - demand and the recovery of domestic downstream start - up rates, despite inventory accumulation pressure [5][6][7] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to stay high due to strong cost - side prices and continuous supply - side disturbances, with relatively average demand [9][10] - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, influenced by the current industrial situation and the contradiction between macro and industrial capital [12][13][14] - Zinc prices are also expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment, with potential for a large price increase compared to copper and aluminum, despite the lack of significant improvement in the industrial situation [15][16] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market risk preference, and it is recommended to wait and see [17][18][19] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, constrained by inventory pressure but supported by domestic liquidity, and short - term waiting is recommended [20][21] - Carbonate lithium prices may see a "rush - to - export" effect, but rapid increases also bring回调 risks, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [23][24] - Alumina prices are facing multiple difficulties in continuous rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see, with the option of shorting near - term contracts on price rallies [26][27] - Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the short - term due to stable cost support, low supply from steel mills, and continuous inventory reduction [29][30] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: LME copper 3M rose 1.59% to $13,172/ton, and SHFE copper main contract was at 103,320 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,750 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by about 20,000 tons [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Fed rate - cut expectations are weakened, and geopolitical factors may cool the short - term sentiment. The copper mine supply is tight, and prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 101,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,300/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: LME aluminum rose 1.33% to $3,191/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract was at 24,630 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar social inventories increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level volatility of precious metals and non - ferrous metals has increased, and overseas geopolitical factors may cool the short - term sentiment. The aluminum price is expected to remain high, with a reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract of 24,100 - 25,000 yuan/ton and for LME aluminum 3M of $3,120 - 3,220/ton [6][7] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2603 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 1.54% to 23,340 yuan/ton, and domestic mainstream ADC12 prices increased. The domestic aluminum alloy inventory slightly increased [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side prices are strong, and there are continuous supply - side disturbances. Prices are expected to remain high [10] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rose 0.48% to 17,464 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,059.5/ton. The lead ingot social inventory increased [12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between macro and industrial capital is intensifying. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment [13][14] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.66% to 24,166 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $3,181.5/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has significant potential for a price increase compared to copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment [16] Tin - **Market Information**: SHFE tin main contract rose 6.92% to 376,920 yuan/ton. The supply situation is complex, with some regions facing different problems, and the inventory decreased [17][18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market risk preference, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 310,000 - 370,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $43,000 - 47,000/ton [19] Nickel - **Market Information**: SHFE nickel main contract rose 3.67% to 144,200 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices rebounded [20] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel market has a large surplus pressure, but domestic liquidity provides support. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and short - term waiting is recommended. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,500 - 19,000/ton [21] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index increased by 10%, and the LC2605 contract price rose [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush - to - export" effect has raised demand expectations, but rapid price increases bring回调 risks. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt. The reference range for the GZCE carbonate lithium 2605 contract is 152,000 - 168,000 yuan/ton [24] Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose 0.82% to 2,853 yuan/ton. The inventory increased, and the ore price decreased [26] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider shorting near - term contracts on price rallies. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,450 - 2,950 yuan/ton [27] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,855 yuan/ton, and the social inventory decreased [29][30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless - steel price is supported by the optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the short - term [30]