金属期权 2026-01-08 金属期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 理 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏多上行，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属反弹回暖上升，构建牛市价差组合策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | ...

农产品期权 2026-01-08 农产品期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花偏强盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉偏多窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish, but the black - series is still in a bottom - range oscillation phase and is sensitive to marginal news. Traders need to be vigilant against rumor disturbances and strengthen information screening. In the short term, the macro - level is in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy and its impact on the steel industry's supply - demand pattern [3]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term shocks and high volatility from previous "sentiment leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the demand side is weak, and the supply - demand situation is loose with inventory accumulation pressure. The price increase in the industrial chain has an emotional support for raw material prices, and the market should pay attention to terminal demand feedback and trading liquidity [14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, glass prices are rising due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. Soda ash is strongly affected by market sentiment, and the market is in a game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, with high volatility [19][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3187 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton (2.442%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 56,844 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract's open interest was 1.7414 million lots, up 178,435 lots. The spot rebar price in Tianjin was 3180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3320 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3332 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton (2.114%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 103,995 tons, down 593 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.3779 million lots, up 103,802 lots. The spot hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3300 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy View - The price of finished products has risen significantly driven by the strong raw material prices. The supply - demand contradiction of hot - rolled coils has been marginally alleviated, while the rebar inventory continues to decline. The winter storage participation is still cautious, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation and is sensitive to news [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 828.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +3.37% (+27.00), and the open interest increased by 25,713 lots to 666,600 lots. The weighted open interest was 999,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 832 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.42% [4]. Strategy View - The price of iron ore continued to rise. The overseas iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals increased. The daily hot - metal output rebounded slightly, and the steel mills' profitability improved. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory was still at a low level in the same period of the past five years, with some replenishment demand [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 7, the main manganese silicon contract (SM603) rose 1.39% to close at 6000 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) rose 1.45% to close at 5860 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy View - The market's bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term shocks. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market will be affected by the black sector's direction and cost - push and supply - contraction factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policy [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8980 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.90% (+80). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 18,796 lots to 379,966 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 220 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 130 yuan/ton [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 58,300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.79% (- 1065). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 8838 lots to 116,672 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 52.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 53.5 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of - 4800 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon is affected by market sentiment, but its own supply - demand is weak, and inventory accumulation may continue. The demand for polysilicon is weak, and the supply - demand is loose with inventory accumulation pressure. The price increase in the industrial chain has an emotional support for raw material prices, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and trading liquidity [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1148 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 5.13% (+56). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1010 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1060 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 56.866 million cases, down 1.757 million cases (- 3.00%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 566 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 633 lots [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1271 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 6.81% (+81). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1231 yuan, up 81 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4083 million tons, down 30,200 tons (- 3.00%), including 676,100 tons of heavy soda ash, down 26,900 tons, and 732,200 tons of light soda ash, down 3300 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 7939 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 32,712 lots [20]. Strategy View - Glass prices are rising due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. Soda ash is strongly affected by market sentiment, and the market is in a game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, with high volatility [19][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement in economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. - For precious metals, they may face short - term significant corrections in January 2026 due to the Fed's "holding steady", but this does not mean the end of the upward cycle. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to maintain high - level operation or wide - range fluctuations, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy expectations, and cost changes [11][13][16]. - For black building materials, the commodity market has a strong bullish sentiment, but the black series is still in the bottom - range oscillation stage. Attention should be paid to policy changes and marginal news [31]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different investment strategies. For example, rubber can be traded neutrally or on the sidelines; oil prices can be traded in a range, and short - term waiting is recommended [52][54]. - For agricultural products, the short - term price of live pigs may be strong, but the medium - term support logic may collapse; the price of eggs has limited upside and downside space; the prices of other agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost [77][79]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued relevant policies to support the development of artificial intelligence and manufacturing. There was a large sell - order in the closing call auction of CITIC Securities, and the number of job vacancies in the US in November dropped to the lowest level in more than a year [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a medium - to - long - term strategy of going long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased. The central bank will conduct a 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation, and the foreign exchange reserve increased at the end of December 2025. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 5002 billion yuan on Wednesday [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market may face pressure due to improved economic expectations, but the funds are expected to be stable. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver decreased. The US employment data was weaker than expected, but the increase in precious metal prices was limited. The market is concerned about the risk of a decline in silver prices [7]. - **Strategy**: Precious metals may face short - term corrections in January 2026, but this does not mean the end of the upward cycle. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper oscillated and adjusted. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot was at a discount [10]. - **Strategy**: The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, supported by supply and policy expectations [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum declined after rising. The inventory increased slightly, and the spot was at a discount [12]. - **Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to remain at a high level, supported by low overseas inventory and supply disturbances [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc increased slightly. The domestic and LME inventories and other data are provided [14][15]. - **Strategy**: The zinc price is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in the medium term and be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead increased. The domestic social inventory increased, and other data are provided [17]. - **Strategy**: The high sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector may drive the lead price to break through the upper limit of the oscillation range [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel increased significantly. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron increased [18]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bottom of the nickel price may have appeared, but it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin increased. The supply was stable at a high level, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy**: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium increased. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased, and the new energy vehicle sales data is provided [21]. - **Strategy**: The price of carbonate lithium is rising, but there is a risk of correction. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a light position [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina increased. The spot was at a discount, and the inventory remained unchanged [22][23]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. If there is no actual production cut, short positions can be established at high prices [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel increased. The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy**: The price of stainless steel is rising, but the spot trading is inactive. It is recommended to operate with caution [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory decreased slightly, and the trading volume was high [27]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to remain at a high level, supported by cost and supply disturbances [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil continued to decline [30]. - **Strategy**: The price of finished products increased driven by raw materials. The black series is in the bottom - range oscillation stage, and attention should be paid to policy changes [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore increased. The spot price and basis data are provided [32]. - **Strategy**: The iron ore price continued to rise. The supply decreased, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The price of glass increased. The inventory decreased, and the number of long and short positions increased [34]. - **Strategy**: The glass price increased due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak, and the upward space is limited [35]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The price of soda ash increased significantly. The inventory decreased, and the number of long positions decreased while the number of short positions increased [36]. - **Strategy**: The soda ash price rose strongly driven by market sentiment, but the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is recommended to operate with caution [37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. The spot prices and basis data are provided [38]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is positive, but the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, and the supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Pay attention to the influence of market sentiment and cost factors [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The inventory of the weighted contract increased, and the spot price remained unchanged [43]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is affected by market sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate [44]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of the weighted contract decreased, and the spot price remained unchanged [45]. - **Strategy**: The demand for polysilicon is weak, and the inventory is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price showed a weakening trend. The bullish and bearish views are different, and the tire production rate decreased slightly [49][50][51]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy, trade short - term, or stay on the sidelines. Consider partial position - building for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of INE crude oil and related refined oil products decreased. The gasoline and fuel oil inventories in the port decreased, while the diesel inventory increased [53]. - **Strategy**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Adopt a range - trading strategy and wait for the verification of OPEC's export - supporting willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [55]. - **Strategy**: The valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of going long on dips [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed, and the main contract price increased [57]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental of urea is expected to be bearish. Take profit at high prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased. The basis and profit data are provided [59]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC increased. The cost, production rate, and inventory data are provided [61]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol increased. The production rate, inventory, and profit data are provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The valuation may be compressed in the medium term [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA remained unchanged. The production rate, inventory, and processing fee data are provided [66]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene decreased. The production rate, inventory, and valuation data are provided [68]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a slight inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE increased. The production rate, inventory, and basis data are provided [70][71]. - **Strategy**: The price of PE may be supported. Consider going long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP increased. The production rate, inventory, and basis data are provided [73]. - **Strategy**: The price of PP may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [74]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The price of live pigs continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. The downstream procurement enthusiasm decreased [76]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price of live pigs is strong, but the medium - term support logic may collapse. Consider shorting on the rebound [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs mostly increased. The supply was normal, and the market digestion speed was stable [78]. - **Strategy**: The price of eggs has limited upside and downside space. Consider shorting on the rebound [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures increased. The export and inventory data of soybeans are provided [80][81]. - **Strategy**: The prices of protein meals increased with the overall rise of commodity prices. The import cost has a bottom, and the inventory is large [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures rebounded. The production and inventory data of palm oil are provided [82][83]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the price may be close to the bottom range. The long - term expectation is optimistic [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures was strong. The production and sales data of sugar are provided [84][85]. - **Strategy**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures increased. The export and inventory data of cotton are provided [87]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of cotton is balanced, and it is recommended to go long on dips [88].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Benefiting from the tightness of the spot market and the driving force of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, precious metal prices have been extremely strong recently. Silver still has room to strengthen in 2026, but in the first quarter, the Fed's monetary policy will slow down the rate - cut amplitude due to Powell's tenure, and there are certain negative factors at the macro - level. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of long - allocation after the silver price experiences a periodic correction [1]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Silver Spot Driving Force Will Continue in the First Quarter of This Year - In 2025, the London silver price rose by 146.5%, reaching a historical high of $83.62 per ounce. The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs increased from 26,050.7 tons to 29,362.5 tons, an increase of 3,311.8 tons, accounting for 10.35% of the annual silver output. The increase in ETF holdings led to a significant increase in spot demand, driving up the silver price. As of January 7, 2026, the silver spot premium reached 140 yuan per kilogram, and the overseas silver spot one - month implied lease rate was at a relatively high level [4]. - India's new silver mortgage loan regulations will be officially implemented on April 1, 2026. At the beginning of the year, the Indian silver premium has recovered. In October 2025, India's monthly silver import volume reached 1,785 tons, which was an important driving factor for the tightness of the London silver spot. It is expected that India's silver imports will support the demand side in the first quarter [5]. II. The Macro - environment in the First Quarter Will Have a Negative Impact on Precious Metals at High Prices, and Wait for Buying Opportunities after Price Corrections - The acceleration of the silver price has fully reflected the expected monetary policy of Hassett or Warsh's tenure. In the first quarter of 2026, the Fed under Powell's leadership will significantly slow down the pace of easing. The Fed's monetary policy stance is expected to tighten marginally, which is a negative factor for precious metal prices [15]. - The CME has raised the margin level for precious metal trading twice in the week of December 31. Similar margin increases in 2011 led to a significant decline in the silver price after it reached a historical high. Precious metals may face suppression in January 2026 and experience a short - term correction. However, this does not mean the end of the current precious metal bull cycle. The Trump administration has the motivation to further expand fiscal policy, and the Fed will enter a more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell leaves office. It is recommended to wait for a periodic correction and then allocate long positions [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Precious metals may face short - term significant corrections in January next year due to the Fed's "holding steady", but this does not mean the end of the current gold and silver upward cycle [2] - The Trump administration has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policy under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a new and more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially leaves office [2] - Currently, the short - term prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the context of large price fluctuations, and not to open new long or short positions, while being aware of the risk of price surges followed by declines [2] Summary by Related Content Market Quotes and Data - On January 8, 2026, Shanghai gold fell 0.31% to 1002.20 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 2.99% to 19020.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4470.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 78.45 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.15%, and the US dollar index was 98.73 [1] - The global major silver ETF holdings continued to decline. The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 235.4 tons yesterday and another 18.33 tons today. The BCOM commodity index rebalancing time is approaching, and major exchanges have raised margin levels, leading the market to focus on the risk of silver price decline from high levels [1] - The US employment data released yesterday was all weaker than expected. The number of ADP employed people in December was 41,000, lower than the expected 47,000. The number of JOLTS job openings in November was 7.146 million, significantly lower than the expected 7.6 million and the previous value of 7.67 million. After the data release, the upward range of gold and silver prices was limited [1] Price and Volume Data of Gold - COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 4467.10 US dollars/ounce, down 0.86% from the previous day, and its trading volume increased by 17.87% to 197,100 lots, while the position decreased by 2.08% to 481,900 lots, and the inventory remained unchanged at 1132 tons [5] - LBMA gold's closing price on January 7, 2026, was 4438.00 US dollars/ounce, down 1.17% from the previous day [5] - SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 998.90 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous day, the trading volume increased by 5.79% to 3.26 million lots, the position decreased by 0.68% to 3.163 million lots, the inventory decreased by 0.05% to 97.65 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 1.28% to 50.555 billion yuan [5] - AuT + D's trading volume on January 7, 2026, was 63.13 tons, up 42.67% from the previous day, and the position decreased by 3.98% to 190.92 tons [5] Price and Volume Data of Silver - COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 77.98 US dollars/ounce, down 3.99% from the previous day, the position increased by 1.08% to 157,400 lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.77% to 13,864 tons [5] - LBMA silver's closing price on January 7, 2026, was 78.99 US dollars/ounce, up 0.65% from the previous day [5] - SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 19,290.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous day, the trading volume increased by 12.02% to 32.443 million lots, the position decreased by 1.08% to 6.752 million lots, the inventory decreased by 4.82% to 553.43 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 1.90% to 35.166 billion yuan [5] - AgT + D's trading volume on January 7, 2026, was 823.59 tons, down 6.05% from the previous day, and the position increased by 1.33% to 3,033,278 tons [5] Price Structure and Spread Data - The report provides data on the near - far month structure of COMEX gold, London gold - COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, Au(T + D) - Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, London silver - COMEX silver, Shanghai silver, and Ag(T + D) - Shanghai silver [20][21][33][35] - On January 7, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX gold spread was - 2.72 yuan/gram (- 12.10 US dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA gold spread was - 1.96 yuan/gram (- 8.72 US dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX silver spread was 1835.33 yuan/kilogram (8.16 US dollars/ounce), and the data of the SGE - LBMA silver spread was also provided [49]

有色金属日报 2026-1-8 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 【策略观点】 美国经济数据偏弱，政策宽松宽松方向不变，国内政策面温和刺激，情绪面中性偏暖。产业上看矿端 供应维持紧张和美国关税预期继续给予铜价强支撑，而铜价处于高位背景下需求仍面临一定压力， 短期铜价预计震荡整理。今日沪铜主力合约参考：100800-1040 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere finishes harvesting in February and the negative impact of increased production is mostly realized. The downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited in the short - term due to reduced imported sugar supply and low prices [4] - For cotton, although the market has long expected a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, the price volatility may increase. The supply - demand relationship is balanced, and it is advisable to buy on dips [8] - For protein meal, the bottom of import costs may have been reached, and the current large domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are supported by negative crushing margins. Protein meal prices follow the general upward trend of commodities [12] - For oils, the current fundamental situation is weak, but the negative soybean crushing margins provide some support. The consumption of total oils in US biodiesel may increase significantly in 2026, and oil prices may be close to the bottom [16][17] - For eggs, the short - term downside of spot prices is limited, but the upside is also restricted. It is advisable to focus on shorting after rebounds from the valuation perspective [19] - For pigs, the short - term upward logic of pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is advisable to short on rebounds in near - term off - season contracts and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts in the long - term [22] 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. The closing price of the May contract was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day. Spot prices of sugar from different regions also increased [2] - **Production and Sales Data**: As of January, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production was 1.94 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 810,000 tons; the sugar production rate was 11.96%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.85 percentage points. Yunnan's cumulative sugar production was 390,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,000 tons [3] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to rise. The closing price of the May contract was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton or 1.21% from the previous trading day. The spot price index also increased [6] - **Export and Inventory Data**: As of December 25, the US current - year cotton export sales were 31,100 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.5193 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 232,700 tons. As of January 2, the national cotton commercial inventory was 5.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [6] Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, protein meal futures prices continued to rise. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,811 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 1.26% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,419 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton or 1.21% from the previous trading day [10] - **Export and Inventory Data**: As of December 25, the US exported 1.18 million tons of soybeans in the week, with a cumulative current - year export of 27.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.85 million tons. As of January 2, the domestic sample soybean port inventory was 8.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons [11] Oils - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, oil futures prices rebounded, except for rapeseed oil. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7,958 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8,562 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day [14] - **Production and Inventory Data**: From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 34.48% month - on - month. As of January 2, the domestic three - major oils inventory was 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons [15] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Most egg prices in the country rose yesterday. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.08 yuan to 3.21 yuan/jin. It is expected that today's egg prices will mostly remain stable with a few increasing [18] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The capacity reduction is slow, and the overall supply is large. However, the late Spring Festival leads to continued stocking sentiment [19] Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price continued to rise yesterday, but the increase narrowed. It is expected that today's pig price will be stable in some areas and slightly decline in others [21] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Low prices stimulate consumption, the late Spring Festival leads to postponed demand, and the structural shortage of large pigs has contributed to the unexpected rebound of pig prices [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and wait for OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall for verification [2]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downside. With geopolitical expectations from Iran, there is feasibility to buy on dips [5]. - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, bearish expectations for the fundamentals are coming, so take profits on rallies [6]. - For rubber, adopt a neutral strategy, trade short - term, enter and exit quickly, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a historically low level, but supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand is entering the off - season, and exports also face off - season pressure. With a strong supply and weak demand situation, short - term electricity prices support PVC, and in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial industry production cuts [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low with large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and styrene's port inventory is decreasing. One can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, and the overall inventory is expected to decline from a high level. One can go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight decline in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. The disk price may bottom out when the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [23]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and demand is under pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, the import decline in January is limited, and the port inventory accumulation period will continue. In the medium term, it is expected to compress the valuation without further domestic production cuts [31]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 11.00 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 2.57%, at 416.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories decreased, while diesel inventory increased [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and wait for OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall for verification [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had different changes, and the main futures contract fell 26 yuan/ton to 2267 yuan/ton, with an MTO profit of - 106 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downside. With geopolitical expectations from Iran, there is feasibility to buy on dips [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas changed, with an overall basis of - 60 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 12 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, bearish expectations for the fundamentals are coming, so take profits on rallies [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the rubber price broke through the range. Bulls and bears had different views. Tire开工率 showed marginal changes, and inventory increased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral strategy, trade short - term, enter and exit quickly, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 53 yuan to 4972 yuan. The overall start - up rate increased, but the downstream start - up rate decreased, and inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a historically low level, but supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand is entering the off - season, and exports also face off - season pressure. With a strong supply and weak demand situation, short - term electricity prices support PVC, and in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial industry production cuts [13]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - end price of pure benzene and the price of the active contract rose, and the basis decreased. The spot and active contract prices of styrene rose, and the basis strengthened. Supply - side start - up rate increased, and port inventory decreased. Demand - side start - up rate also increased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low with large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and styrene's port inventory is decreasing. One can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract price and spot price rose, the basis weakened, the upstream start - up rate increased, inventory decreased, and the downstream start - up rate decreased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, and the overall inventory is expected to decline from a high level. One can go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract price and spot price rose, the basis weakened, the upstream start - up rate decreased, inventory decreased, and the downstream start - up rate decreased [21][22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The EIA monthly report predicts a slight decline in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. The disk price may bottom out when the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 50 yuan to 7286 yuan. PX load increased in China and Asia. Some domestic and overseas devices had changes. PTA load increased. Import volume from South Korea to China increased, and inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract remained unchanged at 5150 yuan, the spot price rose, the basis increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased. PTA load increased, some devices restarted or increased production, and some downstream devices had maintenance. Terminal load decreased, and inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and demand is under pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 41 yuan to 3879 yuan, the spot price rose, the basis decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased. Supply - side load increased, some domestic and overseas devices had changes. Downstream load increased, terminal load decreased, and port inventory decreased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall load is still high, the import decline in January is limited, and the port inventory accumulation period will continue. In the medium term, it is expected to compress the valuation without further domestic production cuts [31].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Title: Metal Options Strategy Morning Report [1] - Report Date: January 7, 2026 - Research Team: Li Liqin, Huang Kehan, Li Renjun [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - For non - ferrous metals, which are trending upwards, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended [2]. - For the black series, which are experiencing significant fluctuations, a short - volatility portfolio strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals, which are rebounding, a bull spread portfolio strategy is suggested [2]. Group 4: Market Overview Futures Market - Copper (CU2602) closed at 104,600, up 1,300 (1.26%) with a trading volume of 29.10 million hands and an open interest of 22.36 million hands [3]. - Aluminum (AL2602) closed at 24,695, up 620 (2.58%) with a trading volume of 55.17 million hands and an open interest of 25.31 million hands [3]. - Other metals such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., also had their respective price changes, trading volumes, and open interest as detailed in the report [3]. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR: Different metals had varying volume and open - interest PCR values, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying and potential turning points [4]. - Pressure and Support Levels: Pressure and support levels were identified for each metal option based on the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [5]. - Implied Volatility: Implied volatility data for each metal option were presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes [6]. Group 5: Strategy Recommendations Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: A bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility seller's option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [7]. - **Aluminum**: A bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a positive delta, and a spot collar strategy are suggested [9]. - **Zinc**: A short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a long - delta and a spot collar strategy are recommended [9]. - **Nickel**: A bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a long - delta, and a spot covered - call strategy are suggested [10]. - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a long - delta and a spot long - hedging strategy are suggested [11]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: A short - volatility option seller's portfolio strategy with a neutral delta and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [12]. Black Series - **Rebar**: A short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a short - delta and a spot covered - call strategy are suggested [13]. - **Iron Ore**: A short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a neutral delta and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [13]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron)**: Strategies such as short - volatility strategies and spot hedging strategies are recommended according to their respective market conditions [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a neutral delta and a spot long - hedging strategy are suggested [14]. - **Glass**: A short - volatility option portfolio strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [15].