1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a bullish upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks performing well [3] - The implied volatility of financial options has dropped to a level below the historical average [3] - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct bullish seller strategies and call option bull spread combination strategies; for index options, in addition to the above, an arbitrage strategy of synthetic long futures with options and short futures can also be considered [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,083.67, up 60.25 points or 1.50%, with a trading volume of 117.58 billion yuan, an increase of 10.84 billion yuan [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,022.55, up 193.92 points or 1.40%, with a trading volume of 163.07 billion yuan, an increase of 15.18 billion yuan [4] - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 3,158.76, up 59.02 points or 1.90%, with a trading volume of 18 billion yuan, an increase of 1.05 billion yuan [4] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,790.69, up 72.95 points or 1.55%, with a trading volume of 72.54 billion yuan, an increase of 9.48 billion yuan [4] - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,814.14, up 162.94 points or 2.13%, with a trading volume of 57.17 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7 billion yuan [4] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,864.90, up 111.02 points or 1.43%, with a trading volume of 58.08 billion yuan, an increase of 3.86 billion yuan [4] 3.2 Option - related ETF Market Overview - The Shanghai 50 ETF closed at 3.235, up 0.061 or 1.92%, with a trading volume of 6.4441 million shares, a decrease of 6.3642 million shares in volume change, and a trading value of 2.073 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.451 billion yuan [5] - Other ETFs also have corresponding price, volume, and value changes [5] 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and position PCR values and their changes, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market [6][7] 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of different option varieties are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options, which can be used to analyze the trend of the underlying [8][10] 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Different option varieties' implied volatility includes at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility, which reflects the market's expectation of future price fluctuations [11][12] 3.6 Strategy and Suggestions 3.6.1 Financial Stock Sector (Shanghai 50 ETF) - The Shanghai 50 ETF shows a bullish trend with support below. Its implied volatility is at a low - average level, and the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a bullish market. Suggested strategies include constructing a call option bull spread combination, a seller's bullish combination, and a spot long - covered call strategy [14] 3.6.2 Large - cap Blue - chip Stock Sector (Shanghai 300 ETF) - The Shanghai 300 ETF shows a moderately bullish trend with support below. Its implied volatility is at a low - average level, and the position PCR is around 1.00, indicating a slightly weak shock. Suggested strategies include constructing a call option bull spread combination, a short - volatility combination of selling call and put options, and a spot long - covered call strategy [14] 3.6.3 Small - cap Stock Sector (Shanghai 500 ETF) - The Shanghai 500 ETF shows a moderately bullish trend with support below. Its implied volatility is below the historical average, and the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a strong trend. Suggested strategies include constructing a call option bull spread combination, a short - volatility combination of selling call and put options, and a spot long - covered call strategy [15] 3.6.4 Medium - and Large - cap Stock Sector (Shenzhen 100 ETF) - The Shenzhen 100 ETF shows a bullish high - level shock and a slight rebound. Its implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a bullish shock and decline. Suggested strategies include a short - volatility combination of selling call and put options and a spot long - covered call strategy [15] 3.6.5 ChiNext Sector (ChiNext ETF) - The ChiNext ETF shows a bullish trend of over - sold rebound and high - level shock. Its implied volatility is at a high level, and the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a strengthening trend. Suggested strategies include a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [16] 3.6.6 Small - cap Stock Sector (CSI 1000) - The CSI 1000 Index shows a moderately bullish trend with support below. Its implied volatility fluctuates below the average, and the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a strong shock. Suggested strategies include constructing a call option bull spread combination and a short - volatility combination of selling call and put options [16]

黑色建材日报 2026-01-07 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3111 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.225%）。当日注册仓单 56844 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 156.29 万手，环比增加 14597 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3263 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 15 元/吨（0.461%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 127 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning strategy report on energy and chemical options dated January 7, 2026 [1] - It covers various energy and chemical options including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc [2] - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of multiple underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc [3] Group 3: Option Factors Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report presents the volume and open interest PCR data of different option varieties, which are used to describe the strength of the underlying market and the turning point of the market respectively [4] Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option variety are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] Implied Volatility - The report shows the implied volatility data of various option varieties, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes [6] Group 4: Strategy and Recommendations for Different Option Varieties Energy Options (Crude Oil and LPG) - **Crude Oil**: Fundamental factors include geopolitical events and OPEC+ policies; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a short - biased call + put option combination, and spot long - hedging strategy is to construct a long collar strategy [7] - **LPG**: Fundamental factors involve supply and demand; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a short - biased call + put option combination, and spot long - hedging strategy is to construct a long collar strategy [9] Alcohol Options (Methanol and Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol**: Fundamental factors include import volume and inventory; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination, and spot long - hedging strategy is to construct a long collar strategy [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Fundamental factors involve port inventory; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a short - volatility strategy, and spot long - hedging strategy is to hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [10] Olefin Options (PVC) - **PVC**: Fundamental factors include production capacity utilization; directional strategy is to construct a bull spread combination of call options, volatility strategy is none, and spot long - hedging strategy is to hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [10] Rubber Options - **Rubber**: Fundamental factors include port inventory and production; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination, and spot hedging strategy is none [11] Polyester Options (PTA) - **PTA**: Fundamental factors include market operating rate and production; directional strategy is to construct a bull spread combination of call options, volatility strategy is to construct a long - biased call + put option combination, and spot hedging strategy is none [11] Alkali Chemical Options (Caustic Soda and Soda Ash) - **Caustic Soda**: Fundamental factors include capacity utilization rate; directional strategy is to construct a bear spread combination, volatility strategy is none, and spot collar hedging strategy is to hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [12] - **Soda Ash**: Fundamental factors include domestic effective production capacity; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a short - volatility combination, and spot long - hedging strategy is to construct a long collar strategy [12] Urea Options - **Urea**: Fundamental factors include daily production; directional strategy is none, volatility strategy is to construct a long - biased call + put option combination, and spot hedging strategy is to hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, the Latin - American geopolitical situation doesn't strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [1]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downward space. Considering the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [1]. - For urea, the import window has opened due to the current internal - external price difference, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [2]. - For rubber, a neutral stance is adopted for now, with a suggestion to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [6]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor as supply is strong while demand is weak. In the short - term, electricity prices may support PVC at the cost end, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [8]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with large potential for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [11]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and it is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [14]. - For polypropylene, although the overall inventory pressure is high under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price may bottom out in Q1 next year when the oversupply pattern changes [17]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern before the maintenance season. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [19]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up phase after a short - term inventory draw. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve. In the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed if there are no further production cuts in China [25]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 1.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.33%, to 428.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 18.00 yuan/ton, or 0.73%, to 2479.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.27%, to 2925.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed a draw of 2.10 million barrels in crude oil arrival inventory to 205.11 million barrels, a build of 0.58 million barrels in gasoline commercial inventory to 89.62 million barrels, a build of 0.42 million barrels in diesel commercial inventory to 92.56 million barrels, and a build of 1.00 million barrels in total refined oil commercial inventory to 182.18 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: The Latin - American geopolitical situation doesn't strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had various changes. The main futures contract rose 78 yuan/ton to 2293 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 265 yuan [1]. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downward space. Considering the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [1]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had changes, and the overall basis was - 58 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 1778 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened due to the current internal - external price difference, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [2]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and rubber prices fluctuated upwards. There were different views from bulls and bears. The total inventory of natural rubber in China increased, and the tire start - up rate showed mixed trends [3][4]. - **Strategy View**: A neutral stance is adopted for now, with a suggestion to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [6]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 155 yuan to 4919 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable. The overall start - up rate of PVC was 78.6%, with an increase of 1.4%. The inventory in factories and society increased [7]. - **Strategy View**: The overall fundamentals are poor as supply is strong while demand is weak. In the short - term, electricity prices may support PVC at the cost end, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [8]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both declined. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the port inventory of styrene decreased while that of pure benzene increased [10]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with large potential for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [11]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 130 yuan/ton to 6579 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 100 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average start - up rate decreased [13]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and it is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [14]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 93 yuan/ton to 6423 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 80 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the inventory in production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased. The downstream average start - up rate decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: Although the overall inventory pressure is high under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price may bottom out in Q1 next year when the oversupply pattern changes [17]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 126 yuan to 7336 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic plants restarted and expanded production. The PTA load increased. The import volume from South Korea to China in December increased, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern before the maintenance season. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [19]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 104 yuan to 5150 yuan. The PTA load increased, and some plants restarted and increased production. The downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up phase after a short - term inventory draw. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [22]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 106 yuan to 3838 yuan. The supply - side load increased slightly. Some domestic and overseas plants had operation changes. The downstream load increased, and the port inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve. In the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed if there are no further production cuts in China [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market sentiment is positive, with some sectors showing upward trends while others face uncertainties. For example, in the macro - financial sector, the stock index has a long - term bullish outlook, but the bond market may be under pressure. In the commodity market, different metals, energy, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and investors should make decisions based on specific market conditions [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Ministry of Commerce strengthened export controls on dual - use items to Japan, the central bank established a liquidity mechanism for non - bank institutions, and regulators investigated some wealth management companies. NVIDIA's new AI platform was introduced [2]. - **Strategy**: Long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips as institutional funds are expected to flow back into the market and policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. Bond - **Market Information**: Bond prices generally declined on Tuesday. The central bank conducted 162 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2963 billion yuan. The auto industry's production and sales reached a new high in 2025, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 50% of domestic sales [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market may face pressure due to improved economic expectations, but the sustainability of economic recovery is uncertain. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the first quarter, mainly affected by the stock market's spring rally, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose due to dovish statements from Fed officials. COMEX gold reached $4505.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver reached $81.22 per ounce [7]. - **Strategy**: Precious metals may face short - term corrections but are still in an upward cycle in the long run. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and avoid opening new long or short positions, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver provided [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices continued to rise. LME copper inventories increased, and domestic spot copper showed different price trends in different regions. The import loss of Shanghai copper narrowed, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [10]. - **Strategy**: The sentiment is favorable, and the supply of copper mines is tight, providing strong support for copper prices. However, as prices rise, downstream demand is squeezed, and the upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices were strong. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai aluminum increased, and domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends. The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased, and the market's wait - and - see sentiment was strong [12]. - **Strategy**: Affected by overseas geopolitical factors and low overseas inventories, aluminum prices are expected to continue to be volatile and strong [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. The inventory of zinc mines decreased, the TC of zinc concentrates declined, and the profit of zinc smelting stabilized. The domestic inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and the ratio of Shanghai to London zinc increased [14][16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and follow the upward trend of the non - ferrous metals sector in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The inventory of lead mines increased, the profit of secondary lead smelting was relatively high, and the inventory of domestic lead ingots stabilized. The price of domestic lead is close to the upper limit of the shock range [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short term due to the strong sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose sharply. The spot premium of nickel increased, and the price of nickel ore remained stable. The price of nickel pig iron continued to rise [18]. - **Strategy**: Although the surplus pressure of nickel is large, the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and reference price ranges for Shanghai and London nickel are provided [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. The smelting of tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable, but the supply of raw materials was tight. The demand for tin in emerging fields supported the industry, and the inventory of tin decreased [20]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price of tin is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and reference price ranges for domestic and overseas tin are provided [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rose. The spot index and futures prices increased, and the production and sales of lithium - ion battery materials were positive [22]. - **Strategy**: The upward trend of carbonate lithium continues, but if the price remains high for a long time, demand may be under pressure. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a small - position trial, and pay attention to market sentiment and futures positions [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose. The trading volume and positions increased, the basis decreased, and the inventory of futures decreased. The price of imported ore decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The price of ore is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and if there is no actual production cut, consider short - selling when the price is high [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel rose. The spot price increased, the inventory decreased, and the price of raw materials such as nickel iron increased [26]. - **Strategy**: Driven by policy expectations and inventory reduction, stainless steel prices may continue to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume and positions increased, the inventory decreased, and the price difference between contracts widened [28]. - **Strategy**: Supported by cost and supply factors, the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coils decreased marginally [31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. The terminal demand recovery is slow, and the winter storage is cautious. Attention should be paid to the impact of "dual - carbon" policies on the steel industry [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore rose. The overseas shipment decreased, the incoming volume increased, the iron - making output increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33][34]. - **Strategy**: The price of iron ore is expected to be volatile, with the upside limited by high inventory and loose supply expectations and the downside supported by restocking expectations. Attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills and iron - making production rhythm [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass rose, and the inventory decreased. The price of soda ash rose, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - **Strategy**: For glass, although the production capacity has decreased, the inventory is still sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price may rise slightly. For soda ash, the supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to go short when the price is high in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose due to the news of differential electricity prices. The spot prices were stable or increased, and the basis was positive [38]. - **Strategy**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. Attention should be paid to the possible impact of manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose, and the trading volume and positions increased. The price of polysilicon rose, and the trading volume and positions decreased [43][46]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. The demand for polysilicon is weak, and the supply is still loose. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to actual spot transactions and wind - control measures [45][47]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber broke through the range and rose. The long and short sides have different views, and the tire production rate showed different trends [49][50]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy, conduct short - term trading, and partially close the hedging positions [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil and related refined products rose. The inventory of crude oil decreased, and the inventory of refined products increased [54]. - **Strategy**: Adjust the valuation of heavy - oil products to overweight, and expect the spread of asphalt or fuel oil to rise [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol showed different trends, and the futures price rose [56]. - **Strategy**: The valuation of methanol is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year. It is advisable to go long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea increased, and the futures price rose [58]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of urea are expected to be bearish, and it is advisable to take profits when the price is high [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The non - integrated profit of styrene increased, and the inventory decreased [60]. - **Strategy**: The valuation of styrene has room for upward repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC rose. The production rate increased, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [62][63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PVC is strong and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies in the medium term [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The production rate increased, the inventory decreased slightly, and the profit showed different trends [65]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. The valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to the risk of rebound [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rose. The production rate increased, the inventory decreased, and the processing fee showed different trends [67]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. It is advisable to go long on dips in the medium term [68]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene rose. The production rate increased, the inventory decreased, and the valuation increased [69]. - **Strategy**: Para - xylene is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. It is advisable to go long on dips in the medium term [70]. Polyethylene (PE) and Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The prices of PE and PP rose. The production rate, inventory, and downstream demand showed different trends [71][73]. - **Strategy**: For PE, it is advisable to go long on the spread between LL5 - 9. For PP, the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [72][75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The price of live pigs was strong in the north and weak in the south. The supply was tight, and the demand was good [77]. - **Strategy**: The short - term pig price is strong, but the medium - term logic may collapse. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs mostly rose. The supply was normal, and the market digestion improved slightly [79]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price of eggs has limited upside and downside. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal rose. The soybean export and domestic inventory data showed different trends [81][82]. - **Strategy**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile, supported by the inverted crushing margin [82]. Oils - **Market Information**: The prices of oils were strong. The palm oil inventory was high, and the domestic three - major oils inventory was also at a relatively high level [83][84]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The oil prices may be close to the bottom [85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar was narrowly volatile. The domestic sugar production and sales data showed different trends [86][87]. - **Strategy**: The international sugar price may rebound after February. The short - term downside of domestic sugar prices is limited [88]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton rose. The export sales of US cotton decreased, and the domestic cotton inventory increased [89]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait for a pull - back and then go long on cotton, considering the balanced supply - demand relationship and positive expectations [90].

农产品期权 2026-01-07 农产品期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花偏强盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉偏多窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Sugar: The raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar - cane for sugar production. International sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. In China, the supply of imported sugar is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space is limited [4]. - Cotton: The market has long anticipated the reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang. The Zhengzhou cotton price has reached a recent high, and price fluctuations may increase. Fundamentally, the off - season is not weak, the downstream operating rate has increased year - on - year. Although there is a domestic increase in production, imports are restricted, and the supply - demand relationship is balanced. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [8]. - Protein Meal: The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are large, but the negative crushing margin supports the price, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. - Oils: The current high production and weak exports in palm oil - producing areas have led to high inventories. Domestic inventories of the three major oils are also at a relatively high level, with weak fundamentals. However, the negative soybean crushing margin provides some support. In the long - term, the total consumption of oils for bio - diesel in the US in 2026 may increase significantly. Overall, the oil prices may be close to the bottom range [17]. - Eggs: The capacity reduction is slow, and the overall supply is still large. But due to the late Spring Festival, the stocking sentiment remains, and the expectation of capacity reduction due to continuous losses also exists. The short - term downward space for spot prices is limited, and the upward space is also limited. The futures market has priced in the post - festival price drop and future capacity reduction to some extent, with limited short - term drivers. From a valuation perspective, focus on shorting after a rebound [20]. - Pigs: Low prices stimulate consumption, the late Spring Festival leads to postponed demand, and the structural shortage of large pigs have jointly caused an unexpected rebound in pig prices. The short - term logic for the strong pig prices remains solid, but over time, the structural contradiction is expected to be gradually resolved, and prices may return to the logic of overall oversupply. In the medium - term, the logic supporting the strong pig prices faces the risk of collapse. It is advisable to focus on the upside pressure of contracts in the off - season and short on rebounds. In the long - term, the decline in production capacity will gradually be reflected in pig prices in the second half of the year, and pay attention to the downside support of far - month contracts [23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the May contract was 5259 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, new sugar prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups and processing sugar mills all increased. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 41 yuan/ton [2]. - **Production and Sales Data**: As of January, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production was 194 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 11.96%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.85 percentage points; cumulative sugar sales were 88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 45.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.76 percentage points. In December, single - month production was 180 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43 million tons; single - month sales were 79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55 million tons; industrial inventory was 105 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6 million tons. Yunnan's cumulative sugar production was 39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 11.34%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.28 percentage points. Cumulative sugar sales were 28.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 71.72%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.98 percentage points. In December, single - month sales were 24.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5 million tons; industrial inventory was 11.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1 million tons [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract was 14855 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton or 1.36% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15711 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 856 yuan/ton [6]. - **Export and Inventory Data**: As of the week of December 25, the US current - year cotton export sales were 3.11 million tons, and the cumulative export sales were 151.93 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.27 million tons; the export to China was 0.24 million tons that week, and the cumulative export to China was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.55 million tons. As of the week of January 2, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, flat compared with the previous week and 4.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the national commercial cotton inventory was 529 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10 million tons [6]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, protein meal futures prices continued to rebound. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2776 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.8% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2390 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton or 1.23% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Dongguan soybean meal price was 3100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the soybean meal main contract was 324 yuan/ton; the Huangpu rapeseed meal price was 2520 yuan/ton, flat from the previous trading day, and the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 130 yuan/ton [10]. - **Export and Inventory Data**: As of the week of December 25, US soybean exports were 118 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons from the previous week; the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 2770 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1185 million tons; the export to China was 40 million tons that week, a decrease of 22 million tons from the previous week; the current - year cumulative export to China was 642 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1182 million tons. As of the week of January 2, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 225 million tons, an increase of 108 million tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53 million tons. The sample oil mill operating rate was 50.75%, a year - on - year increase of 0.14 percentage points; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 106 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45 million tons [11]. Oils - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, oil futures prices showed a strong - side fluctuation. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7912 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8500 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 9130 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton or 0.95% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil price was 8460 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the soybean oil main contract was 548 yuan/ton; the Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil price was 8570 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the palm oil main contract was 70 yuan/ton; the Jiangsu rapeseed oil price was 9900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 770 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: A market estimate shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high of 297 million tons, a 4.7% increase from November. In November, Malaysia's palm oil production was 193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.38%; exports were 121 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.45%; the ending inventory was 284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.43%. In October, Indonesia's palm oil production (CPO + PPO) was 476 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.78%; exports were 280 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.19%; the ending inventory was 233 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.75%. As of the week of January 2, the domestic inventory of the three major oils was 208 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20 million tons and a decrease of 2 million tons from the previous week [15]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The national egg prices mostly rose yesterday. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.09 yuan to 3.13 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.09 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. The supply is basically normal, the digestion speed in some markets has slightly improved, and industry players are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. It is expected that today's egg prices may be stable or rising [19]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued the pattern of being strong in the north and weak in the south, with mixed rises and falls. The average price in Henan increased by 0.13 yuan to 12.85 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained flat at 12.74 yuan/kg. The demand for large pigs is good, the slaughter enthusiasm of farmers is average, the supply of pigs is tight, and the downstream has difficulty in low - price procurement. Today's pig prices may continue to be strong [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal easing direction of liquidity in the US financial market remains unchanged, domestic policies offer mild stimulus, and geopolitical disturbances enhance the importance of strategic resources, so the sentiment is still relatively favorable. The tight supply of copper mines and US tariff expectations strongly support copper prices, but as prices rise, downstream demand is squeezed out, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. Overall, the upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down [2]. - Amid overseas geopolitical factors, precious metals and copper prices are expected to remain high, which will still drive up aluminum prices. Although high aluminum prices suppress downstream开工, the relatively low overseas aluminum inventory and supply - side disturbances support aluminum prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [5]. - The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the operating rate of primary lead remains relatively high, the scrap lead inventory continues to decline, the smelting profit of recycled lead is still at a relatively high level in the past six months, and the operating rate of recycled smelting has slightly rebounded. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has declined marginally, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has stopped falling and stabilized. Currently, domestic lead prices are approaching the upper edge of the oscillation range, with a high concentration of long - position funds. In the short term, the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector is high, and lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8]. - The visible inventory of zinc ore has declined, the TC of zinc concentrate has declined again but at a slower pace, and the smelting profit of zinc has stopped falling and stabilized. The total domestic inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. After a large number of registered warrants appeared on the LME, the Shanghai - London ratio has continued to rise. After the winter stockpiling ends, the domestic supply of zinc ore may become more abundant. In the double - easing cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is mostly bullish. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term and run strongly in the short term following the non - ferrous sector [10]. - Although the current demand in the tin market is weak and there is an expectation of improved supply, with low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Currently, the surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but due to Indonesia's claim to reduce RKAB quotas and the proposed tax on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has weakened. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - On Tuesday, the market environment was bullish, and non - ferrous and precious metal - related varieties rose significantly. There were occasional disturbances in the supply news of lithium carbonate. Although the substantial impact was limited, the bullish sentiment was high, and the upward trend continued. It is recommended to wait and see or make light - position attempts. Pay attention to the market atmosphere, futures positions, and seat changes [18]. - After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and with the resumption of production in the AXIS mine, the ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the cost - performance of chasing long positions is not high. If there is no actual production reduction, one can wait for an opportunity to short near - month contracts at high prices [21]. - At the end of December, driven by the news of Indonesia's RKAB plan for 2026 to set a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons, nickel prices drove stainless steel prices to continue to strengthen. In the short term, the improvement in policy expectations promotes the rise of raw material prices and accelerates inventory reduction, providing fundamental support for the current market. If the supply quota of nickel ore is clearly tightened in the future, prices may rise further. It is recommended to consider going long at low prices and closely monitor the actual implementation of policies [24]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and with continuous supply - side disturbances, there is strong price support, while demand is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly [27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Quotes**: Offshore RMB appreciated, the domestic equity market rose, and copper prices continued to rise. On January 6, LME copper 3M closed up 1.28% to $13,254/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 104,600 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons, mainly from Asia. The proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium. The daily warrants of SHFE increased by 0.3 tons to 93,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai shifted to a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the trading was poor due to the rising price. The spot in Guangdong had a premium of 15 yuan/ton to the futures, the inventory increased month - on - month, and downstream consumption weakened. The loss of SHFE copper spot imports narrowed to about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 6,100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The marginal easing direction of liquidity in the US financial market remains unchanged, domestic policies offer mild stimulus, and geopolitical disturbances enhance the importance of strategic resources, so the sentiment is still relatively favorable. The tight supply of copper mines and US tariff expectations strongly support copper prices, but as prices rise, downstream demand is squeezed out, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. Overall, the upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract on January 7 is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $13,000 - 13,500/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. On January 6, LME aluminum closed up 1.41% to $3,133/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,695 yuan/ton. The position of the SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased by 34,000 to 746,000 lots, and the futures warrants increased by 0.1 tons to 84,000 tons. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots in three regions increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline, and the market was in a wait - and - see mood. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China had a discount of 220 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream procurement was cautious. LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.3 tons to 504,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a discount [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Amid overseas geopolitical factors, precious metals and copper prices are expected to remain high, which will still drive up aluminum prices. Although high aluminum prices suppress downstream开工, the relatively low overseas aluminum inventory and supply - side disturbances support aluminum prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract on January 7 is 24,100 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,090 - 3,170/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.74% to 17,532 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 101,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose by $13 to $2,033/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 178,700 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,350 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,225 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 236,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 74,400 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $45.52/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $106.8/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.238, and the profit and loss of lead ingot imports was 471.61 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory increased by 1,500 tons to 18,900 tons [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the operating rate of primary lead remains relatively high, the scrap lead inventory continues to decline, the smelting profit of recycled lead is still at a relatively high level in the past six months, and the operating rate of recycled smelting has slightly rebounded. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has declined marginally, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has stopped falling and stabilized. Currently, domestic lead prices are approaching the upper edge of the oscillation range, with a high concentration of long - position funds. In the short term, the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector is high, and lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.01% to 24,328 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 230,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose by $66 to $3,238.5/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 231,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,340 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 110 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was 30 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 100 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 40,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,900 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 7,900 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $36.3/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $58/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.081, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,244.78 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 5,300 tons to 114,000 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has declined, the TC of zinc concentrate has declined again but at a slower pace, and the smelting profit of zinc has stopped falling and stabilized. The total domestic inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. After a large number of registered warrants appeared on the LME, the Shanghai - London ratio has continued to rise. After the winter stockpiling ends, the domestic supply of zinc ore may become more abundant. In the double - easing cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is mostly bullish. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term and run strongly in the short term following the non - ferrous sector [10]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: On January 6, 2026, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 348,820 yuan/ton, up 4.32% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating conditions of tin ingot smelters in Jiangxi and Yunnan were generally stable at a high level. Specifically, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained at 87.09%, basically the same as last week. However, the tin ore processing fee in Yunnan was still at a low level, and the shortage of raw materials for smelting enterprises still existed, with insufficient further upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin was insufficient, and the output of refined tin continued to be at a low level. In terms of demand, the downstream consumer electronics demand entered the traditional off - season at the end of the year, but supported by orders from emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI servers, the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network data, the output of tin solder of sample enterprises in November increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate increased slightly by 0.69% compared with October. In the spot market, downstream solder and electronic enterprises mostly adopted a low - inventory strategy, and the purchasing willingness was weak. In terms of inventory, tin inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. As of December 31, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9,309 tons, a decrease of 1,058 tons from the previous Friday [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the current demand in the tin market is weak and there is an expectation of improved supply, with low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 43,000/ton [12]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: On January 6, nickel prices rose significantly. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 139,800 yuan/ton, up 4.25% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand was relatively strong. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was $51.37/wet ton, the same as the previous day; the arrival price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was $23/wet ton, the same as the previous day; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was $52.7/ton, the same as last week. In terms of nickel iron, prices continued to rise. The ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 935 yuan/nickel point, with an average increase of 5.5 yuan/nickel from the previous day [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but due to Indonesia's claim to reduce RKAB quotas and the proposed tax on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has weakened. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for SHFE nickel prices is 110,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $13,000 - 18,000/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 133,021 yuan, up 7.45% from the previous working day. Among them, the quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 132,200 - 134,800 yuan, with an average increase of 9,150 yuan (+7.36%) from the previous working day; the quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 130,000 - 131,000 yuan, with an average increase of 7.94% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 137,940 yuan, up 6.12% from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,750 yuan [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On Tuesday, the market environment was bullish, and non - ferrous and precious metal - related varieties rose significantly. There were occasional disturbances in the supply news of lithium carbonate. Although the substantial impact was limited, the bullish sentiment was high, and the upward trend continued. In the first quarter, the maintenance of lithium - battery materials extended to the electrolyte end, and the price increase of lithium iron phosphate was gradually being realized. The in - the - money

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fed officials' dovish statements boost market expectations for loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term strengthening of gold and silver prices [1] - Precious metals may face short - term significant corrections due to the Fed's "inaction" in January next year, but this does not mean the end of the current gold and silver upward cycle. The Trump administration has a motivation for further loose fiscal policies, and the Fed will enter a more radical interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially steps down. Currently, the short - term prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see stance in precious metals trading, not to open new long or short positions, and to be aware of the risk of price surges followed by declines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 940 - 1024 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 15340 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.81% to 1008.74 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 4.87% to 19820.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4505.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 81.22 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.18%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.59 [1] Key Data of Gold and Silver - For COMEX Gold on January 6, 2026, the closing price of the active contract was 4505.70 US dollars/ounce (up 1.03% from the previous day), the trading volume was 16.72 million lots (down 19.29% from the previous day), the position was 48.19 million lots (down 2.08% from the previous day), and the inventory was 1132 tons (unchanged). For LBMA Gold, the closing price was 4490.35 US dollars/ounce (up 0.76% from the previous day). For SHFE Gold, the closing price of the active contract was 1004.98 yuan/gram (up 1.00% from the previous day), the trading volume was 30.81 million lots (up 61.30% from the previous day), the position was 31.85 million lots (up 1.83% from the previous day), the inventory was 97.70 tons (unchanged), and the settled funds were 512.11 billion yuan (up 2.85% from the previous day). For AuT+D, the trading volume was 44.25 tons (up 0.55% from the previous day), and the position was 198.82 tons (down 4.66% from the previous day) [4] - For COMEX Silver on January 6, 2026, the closing price of the active contract was 81.22 US dollars/ounce (up 6.16% from the previous day), the position was 15.74 million lots (up 1.08% from the previous day), and the inventory was 13972 tons (down 0.07% from the previous day). For LBMA Silver, the closing price was 78.48 US dollars/ounce (up 4.54% from the previous day). For SHFE Silver, the closing price of the active contract was 19452.00 yuan/kilogram (up 6.60% from the previous day), the trading volume was 289.63 million lots (up 168.34% from the previous day), the position was 68.26 million lots (up 6.92% from the previous day), the inventory was 581.44 tons (down 13.16% from the previous day), and the settled funds were 358.48 billion yuan (up 13.98% from the previous day). For AgT+D, the trading volume was 876.64 tons (up 33.34% from the previous day), and the position was 2993.51 tons (up 1.77% from the previous day) [4] Price - Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, US dollar index, real interest rates, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structures and internal - external price differences of gold and silver [7][8][10][15][20][21][25][27][29][39][44][46][51][52][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock market shows a bullish upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all performing well [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has declined to a level below the historical average [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct bullish seller strategies and call option bull spread combination strategies; for index options, in addition to the above, an arbitrage strategy of long synthetic futures and short futures can also be considered [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,023.42, up 1.38% with a trading volume of 10,673 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,828.63, up 2.24% with a trading volume of 14,789 billion yuan; other indexes such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also showed varying degrees of increase [4]. - **ETF Options Underlying**: Multiple ETFs, including SSE 50ETF, SSE 300ETF, etc., had different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading volume changes. For example, SSE 50ETF closed at 3.174, up 2.22% [5]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and position PCR values and their changes, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market [6][7]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - From the perspective of the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support points of different option underlying are analyzed. For example, the pressure point of SSE 50ETF is 3.20, and the support point is 3.10 [8][10]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes, is presented. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of SSE 50ETF is 13.66% [11][12]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions - The financial option sector is divided into different segments, such as the financial stock sector, large - cap blue - chip stock sector, small and medium - cap stock sector, and ChiNext sector [13]. - For each sector, specific option strategies are proposed based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factors. For example, for SSE 50ETF, a call option bull spread combination strategy, a seller - biased long combination strategy, and a spot long covered call strategy are recommended [14].