Group 1: Report Core View - In H1 2025, China's tin ore imports decreased sharply due to the delayed resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and geopolitical conflicts in the DRC. In Q3, the overall imports are expected to remain at a low level, but the imports from Africa will gradually increase. If the tin mines in Wa State resume production smoothly in Q4, China's tin ore imports are expected to improve significantly [2][5][11] Group 2: 2025 H1 Domestic Tin Ore Imports - In H1 2025, China's tin ore imports decreased by 32.42% year-on-year to 62,100 physical tons. Imports from Myanmar dropped by 75.92% to 13,200 physical tons, while imports from the DRC increased [5] Group 3: Q3 Domestic Tin Ore Imports - In Q3, China's tin ore imports are expected to remain at a low level. In July, the import volume was 10,278 physical tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.7%. The decrease mainly came from Myanmar [7] - Although some operators in Wa State, Myanmar, have obtained mining permits, the export volume to China is not expected to increase significantly in Q3. If the resumption is successful in Q4, the monthly import volume is expected to return to 2,000 - 3,000 metal tons [7] Group 4: Tin Ore Imports from Africa - After the Bisie tin mine in the DRC resumed production, production has not been hindered, and imports from the DRC are expected to increase slightly in Q3. Investment in Nigerian tin mines is increasing, and production is expected to grow steadily [8] Group 5: Tin Ore Imports from Other Countries - Bolivia restricts the export of high-grade tin ore, and only low-grade tin ore can be exported, which is highly unstable. Australian tin mine reserves are decreasing, and subsequent production will mainly be stable [8][10]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Five Mines Futures Agricultural Products Morning Report on August 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soybean/M粕 Core View - The cost of imported soybeans is on a stable and slightly rising trend, while the domestic soybean meal market is in a season of oversupply. It is expected that the spot market may start to destock in September. The soybean meal market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors [3][5] Key Information - On Wednesday night, the U.S. soybeans closed slightly higher in a narrow - range oscillation. The market is still focused on the PROFARMER tour survey. The U.S. Soybean Association called on Trump to reach an agreement with China as soon as possible. The Brazilian soybean premium is stable, and the cost of imported soybeans remains unchanged for the time being. The domestic soybean meal spot basis is stable, with the East China region reporting 01 - 170 yuan/ton. The soybean meal trading is weak, but the pick - up is good. The downstream inventory days decreased slightly by 0.02 days to 8.35 days. According to MYSTEEL statistics, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China last week, and it is expected to crush 2.4043 million tons this week [3] - In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is expected to be low. In Brazil, the premium has been oscillating at a high level recently. Overall, the USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the U.S. soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month, which is a short - term positive for CBOT soybeans. Currently, due to the low valuation of U.S. soybeans, the positive EPA policy, and the fact that soybeans are solely supplied by Brazil from September to January, the cost of imported soybeans maintains a stable and slightly rising trend. However, the continuous upward momentum of the cost of imported soybeans needs to be tested under the background of global protein raw material oversupply [3] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the soybean meal cost range. At the high end, pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure. Focus on the progress of Sino - U.S. tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5] Group 3: Oils Core View - The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. The palm oil price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with a rising expectation in the fourth quarter. However, the upward space is limited by multiple factors [7][9] Key Information - According to the Malaysian independent inspection agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the 366,482 tons exported in the same period last month. It is expected that the exports in the first 15 days will increase by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month, and the first 20 days will increase by 13.61% - 17.5%. SPPOMA data shows that from August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [7] - The Malaysian Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities (KPK) stated that the direct impact of U.S. market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be relatively limited, as it is difficult to find substitutes in the global market [7] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said that due to the slowdown in supply and the decrease in soybean supply caused by biodiesel demand, the palm oil price is expected to remain above 4,300 ringgit per ton in the short - term [7] - On Wednesday night, the three major domestic oils oscillated, affected by the weak sentiment of the overall commodity market. The stable demand from importing countries, low inventories in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply in Indonesia provide continuous positive factors. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] Trading Strategy - The oil price is expected to oscillate strongly. If the importing countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production in the producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable, supporting a strong price. There is a rising expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the high valuation and multiple suppressing factors limit the upward space [9] Group 4: Sugar Core View - The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12] Key Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,676 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan or 0.26% increase from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,940 - 6,000 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, a 0 - 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,050 - 6,130 yuan/ton, a 0 - 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day. The basis between the Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 264 yuan/ton [11] - According to the latest data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center, the average sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region of Brazil in July was 81.3 tons, a 5.6% year - on - year decrease compared to 86.1 tons per hectare in the same period in 2024 [11] Trading Strategy - The international raw sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increased domestic imports and high import profits [12] Group 5: Cotton Core View - The short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level [15] Key Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price slightly decreased. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 14,055 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan or 0.32% decrease from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price was 15,000 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day. The basis between the 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 945 yuan/ton [14] - India has suspended the 11% import tariff on cotton until September 30, which may benefit U.S. cotton growers [14] Trading Strategy - The USDA report is more positive than expected, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the U.S. for 90 days are positive for the domestic cotton price. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the cotton destocking speed has slowed down. The short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level [15] Group 6: Eggs Core View - The egg price in the spot market is mostly stable with a few declines, and the futures market may fluctuate in the short - term, with short - selling opportunities after a rebound in the medium - term [17][18] Key Information - The national egg price is mostly stable with a few declines. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.02 yuan to 3.19 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan dropped 0.1 yuan to 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the willingness of second - and third - tier dealers to stock up and build inventories is low. The overall circulation speed is slow. It is expected that the egg price will mostly decline and a few will remain stable today [17] Trading Strategy - The supply of newly - laid hens continues to increase, and the number of culled chickens is limited, resulting in a large supply. The egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the futures market has a premium. The short - term futures market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [18] Group 7: Pigs Core View - The pig price may oscillate in a range, with short - term low - buying opportunities and attention to the upper - limit pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse arbitrage strategy for the far - month contracts [21] Key Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally increased. The average price in Henan increased 0.03 yuan to 13.8 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan increased 0.1 yuan to 13.57 yuan/kg. After the price increase, the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced goods decreased, the market's bullish sentiment weakened, and some farmers plan to increase the number of pigs for sale. It is expected that the pig price will be stable with some declines and a few slight increases today [20] Trading Strategy - The spot price has temporarily stabilized due to previous pressure release and bottom - support sentiment. The futures market has risen and then fallen. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. In the context of expected increases in both supply and demand, the fat - to - standard pig price difference and whether there will be pig hoarding are crucial. The market may oscillate in a range. In the short - term, focus on low - buying opportunities; in the medium - term, pay attention to the upper - limit pressure; and use a reverse arbitrage strategy for the far - month contracts [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the sentiment in the有色金属 market is mixed. Some metals may experience price fluctuations due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical issues, and market expectations. For example, copper prices may be in a consolidation phase, aluminum prices may turn to a volatile state, and zinc prices still face significant downward risks. Meanwhile, long - term factors like the US easing expectations and domestic anti - involution policies may support nickel prices [1][3][9]. - The prices of various metals are affected by different factors. For instance, copper prices are influenced by raw material supply, inventory levels, and market sentiment; aluminum prices are related to inventory changes and downstream consumption; lead prices are affected by raw material shortages and high inventory at the consumer end; and tin prices are restricted by slow production resumption and weak demand during the off - season [1][3][7][11]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper closed up 0.38% at $9,721 per ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 78,730 yuan per ton. The price may consolidate and await further guidance from the Fed Chair's speech on Friday [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 156,350 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 25,000 tons. Domestic refined copper net imports in July were 218,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from June [1]. - **Outlook**: The market has expectations of interest rate cuts, and raw material supply is tight. Overall, copper prices may consolidate, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 78,000 - 79,200 yuan per ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,600 - $9,800 per ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum closed up 0.37% at $2,577 per ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20,565 yuan per ton. The price may turn to a volatile state [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 442,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 480,000 tons [3]. - **Outlook**: The US - Russia talks were relatively smooth, but the US has expanded the scope of taxation on aluminum and steel derivatives. With low domestic inventory and strong aluminum product exports, aluminum prices are supported, but downstream consumption is weak. The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,480 - 20,680 yuan per ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,540 - $2,600 per ton [3]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract slightly increased to 20,095 yuan per ton, and the price increase may face resistance [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 200 tons to 31,400 tons [5]. - **Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Cost support is strong, but the large price difference between futures and spot may limit price increases [5]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.58% at 16,735 yuan per ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1,971.5 per ton. The price is expected to be weak [7]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 65,800 tons, and LME lead inventory was 283,000 tons [7]. - **Outlook**: The lead ore inventory is tight, and the processing fee is declining. The demand from battery manufacturers is weak, and the finished product inventory is high. Overall, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to decline [7]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.26% at 22,265 yuan per ton, and LME zinc 3S remained unchanged at $2,776.5 per ton. The price still has significant downward risks [8][9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 135,400 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 72,200 tons [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Zinc ore inventory is decreasing, but the TC of zinc concentrate is rising. Refined zinc imports are decreasing, and domestic social inventory is increasing rapidly. Downstream consumption is weak, and the market is in an oversupply state [9]. Tin - **Price Movement**: On August 20, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 267,840 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Inventory**: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 184 tons to 7,329 tons, and LME inventory increased by 85 tons to 1,715 tons. As of August 15, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 10,392 tons [11]. - **Outlook**: The supply is tight in the short term due to slow production resumption in Myanmar and transportation issues. The demand is weak during the off - season. As production resumes in Myanmar, the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan per ton for domestic tin and $31,000 - $34,000 per ton for LME tin [11]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices fluctuated. The price may face correction pressure in the short term but has support in the long term [12][13]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided in the summary part. - **Outlook**: Downstream stainless steel demand improvement is limited, but long - term factors such as the US easing expectations and RKAB approval support the price. The SHFE nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan per ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - $16,500 per ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index dropped 4.05% to 82,832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed down 7.49% at 80,980 yuan. The price may have further fluctuations [15]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided in the summary part. - **Outlook**: The sentiment of bullish funds supported by supply disruptions has cooled down. The short - term support level of lithium prices has shifted upward, and attention should be paid to imports and industry news. The reference operating range for the GFEX lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 77,000 - 82,000 yuan per ton [15]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: On August 20, 2025, the alumina index increased by 0.67% to 3,137 yuan per ton. The price may have limited downward space [17]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,000 tons to 75,000 tons [17]. - **Outlook**: The supply of domestic and overseas ore is disturbed, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 3,100 - 3,500 yuan per ton [17]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,820 yuan per ton, down 0.50%. The price is expected to fluctuate [19][20]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 1,078,900 tons, a decrease of 2.48%. The 300 - series inventory was 644,500 tons, a decrease of 1.99% [20]. - **Outlook**: The decline was affected by low - price selling by arbitrage institutions. The downstream is cautious in purchasing, and the steel mills have the intention to support the price. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate [20].

Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai gold (Au) rose 0.52% to 776.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 0.60% to 9160.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.11% to 3392.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.31% to 37.89 US dollars/ounce [2] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.29%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.23 [2] - Au(T+D) closed at 769.83 yuan/gram, down 2.57 yuan or -0.33% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 9022.00 yuan/kilogram, down 161.00 yuan or -1.75% [4] - The London gold price was 3344.65 US dollars/ounce, up 10.20 US dollars or 0.31%; the London silver price was 37.08 US dollars/ounce, down 0.99 US dollars or -2.61% [4] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4.01 tons to 958.20 tons, a decrease of -0.42%; the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 33.89 tons to 15305.76 tons, a decrease of -0.22% [4] Group 2: Market Outlook - Trump and his team pressured the independence of the Federal Reserve through personnel appointments, causing a significant rebound in gold and silver prices [2] - The director of the US Federal Housing Finance Agency is urging a judicial review of two loans of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and Trump called for her immediate resignation [2] - Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on the evening of August 22, and his speech will significantly impact the trend of gold and silver prices [3] - The fourth quarter will be the time to announce the new Fed Chairman, and there is a driving force for the interest rate cut expectation to further increase [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - It is recommended to wait for Powell's specific statement in the precious metal strategy. If his monetary policy speech is significantly dovish, it is recommended to enter long silver orders on dips [3] - The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 765 - 794 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8885 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Data Summary - For gold on August 20, 2025, the closing price of the active contract on COMEX was 3392.20 US dollars/ounce, up 0.99%; the trading volume was 13.06 million lots, up 1.04%; the position was 44.62 million lots, down -0.78%; the inventory was 1199 tons, down -0.17% [7] - For silver on August 20, 2025, the closing price of the active contract on COMEX was 37.90 US dollars/ounce, up 1.51%; the position was 15.64 million lots, down -3.00%; the inventory was 15816 tons, up 0.07% [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not be able to maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - For iron ore, although the current supply - side pressure is not significant, attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress. If the terminal demand continues to weaken, the short - term iron ore price may be slightly adjusted [6]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, in the short - term disordered market environment affected by emotions, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [8]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to run weakly with fluctuations, and for polysilicon, it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - emotions, and soda ash prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment under the "anti - involution" logic [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3132 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.191%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.40%) from the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, inventory accumulation speed increased. Hot - rolled coil demand rebounded significantly, and inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are in a marginal upward state, with high production and insufficient demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 769.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.26% (- 2.00), and the position changed to 44.04 million hands [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. The daily average pig iron output increased. Port inventories increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventories increased significantly. The apparent demand for five major steel products continued to weaken [6]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Prices**: On August 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 1.32% at 5836 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 0.99% at 5622 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Environment**: Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices of related commodities, including ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, have dropped significantly. It is expected that the price will eventually return to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8390 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.72% (- 235). The weighted contract position changed to 5.26445 million hands [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand remain. The operating rate is expected to rise in August, and the demand side can provide some support, but the price is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 51875 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.74% (- 385). The weighted contract position changed to 3.37155 million hands [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, and the inventory clearance speed was limited. The supply - demand situation is still weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1156 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China was 1060 yuan, down 30 yuan. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 2.55% [18]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, it follows macro - emotions, and the price may rise if there are substantial real - estate policies [18]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was 1205 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8973 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18% [19]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the price center may gradually rise under the "anti - involution" logic, but the upward space is limited due to the supply - demand contradiction [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] - For PVC, the supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [13] - For polyethylene, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] - For polypropylene, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [19] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 1.01%, to $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.09, or 1.65%, to $67.04; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.00 yuan, or 0.21%, to 475.9 yuan [1] - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.01 million barrels to 420.68 million barrels, a 1.41% decrease; SPR increased by 0.22 million barrels to 403.43 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to 223.57 million barrels, a 1.20% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 2.34 million barrels to 116.03 million barrels, a 2.06% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 0.39% increase; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 43.30 million barrels, a 1.02% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract rose 33 yuan/ton to 2424 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 119 [4] - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices have risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production starts are increasing, leading to greater supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. The current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve in the peak season [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract fell 41 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 40 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production starts have turned from decreasing to increasing, and corporate profits are still low but expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively abundant. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the demand side is generally weak. The downside space is limited, and attention should be paid to long - position opportunities on dips [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8] - **Fundamentals**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders of semi - steel tires were weak. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 7 yuan to 5008 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4720 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 288 (- 37) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (+8) yuan/ton [10] - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate is 80.3%, an increase of 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, a decrease of 0.1%. Factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 327,000 tons, and social inventory increased by 35,000 tons to 812,000 tons. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high [10] Benzene Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening [12] - **Fundamentals**: The macro - market sentiment is good, and the cost side still provides support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has a large upward repair space. The supply side is increasing, and the port inventory is decreasing significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [12][13] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7275 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The inventory of traders is high, and the demand is in the off - season. There is a large capacity release plan in August. The price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7075 yuan/ton, unchanged [16] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The demand side is in the off - season. There is a 450,000 - ton planned capacity release in August. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 70 yuan to 6844 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 837 dollars, with a basis of 43 (- 51) yuan and an 11 - 1 spread of 58 (+10) yuan [18] - **Fundamentals**: The PX operating rate remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. However, due to the new PTA device put into operation, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The valuation has support at the bottom but is limited in the short - term upside. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [18][19] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 44 yuan to 4778 yuan, the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4690 yuan, and the basis was - 2 (+6) yuan [20] - **Fundamentals**: The PTA operating rate is 76.4%, an increase of 1.7%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The inventory decreased by 23,000 tons. The supply side may accumulate inventory due to new device production, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 53 yuan to 4477 yuan, the East China spot price rose 49 yuan to 4507 yuan, the basis was 90 (- 3) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 (- 10) yuan [21] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side operating rate is 66.4%, a decrease of 2%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The port inventory decreased by 6000 tons to 547,000 tons. The short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market, including the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks, shows a high - level slight - oscillation market trend [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options gradually rises to fluctuate above the mean level [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct covered strategies, neutral double - selling strategies, and vertical spread combination strategies; for stock index options, it is suitable to construct neutral double - selling strategies and arbitrage strategies between synthetic long or short futures with options and long or short futures [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Market and Option Overview - **Stock Market Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,727.29, down 0.02%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,821.63, down 0.12%; the Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2,812.42, down 0.93%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4,223.37, down 0.38%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6,655.31, down 0.19%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,242.85, up 0.07% [4]. - **Option - based ETFs**: The closing prices of various option - based ETFs showed different changes, with trading volumes and turnovers also varying. For example, the Shanghai 50ETF closed at 2.937, down 1.14% [5]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR**: The volume and position PCR of different option varieties showed different trends. For instance, the volume PCR of the Shanghai 50ETF was 0.80, with a change of 0.16; the position PCR was 0.93, with a change of - 0.13 [6]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support Points**: Different option varieties have corresponding pressure and support points. For example, the pressure point of the Shanghai 50ETF is 3.10, and the support point is 2.90 [8]. - **Option Factors - Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of different option varieties also varied. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of the Shanghai 50ETF was 16.53%, and the weighted implied volatility was 18.70%, down 0.89% [11]. 3.2 Strategy and Suggestions for Different Sectors - **Financial Stocks Sector (Shanghai 50ETF, Shanghai 50)**: Since July, the Shanghai 50ETF has been in a high - level oscillation after a partial upward trend. It is recommended to construct a seller - biased long combination strategy for volatility and a covered strategy for spot [14]. - **Large - cap Blue - chip Stocks Sector (CSI 300, Shanghai 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF)**: The Shanghai 300ETF has shown a short - term upward trend. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility strategy of selling both calls and puts and a covered strategy for spot [15]. - **Large - and Medium - sized Stocks Sector (Shenzhen 100ETF)**: The Shenzhen 100ETF has shown a bullish trend. It is recommended to construct a bull call spread strategy for direction and a short - volatility strategy of selling both calls and puts, as well as a covered strategy for spot [16]. - **Small and Medium - cap Stocks Sector (Shanghai 500ETF, Shenzhen 500ETF, CSI 1000)**: These stocks have shown a short - term upward trend. For the Shanghai 500ETF and Shenzhen 500ETF, it is recommended to construct a bull call spread strategy for direction and a covered strategy for spot; for the CSI 1000, it is recommended to construct a short - volatility strategy [16][17]. - **ChiNext Sector (ChiNext ETF, Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF)**: The ChiNext ETF has shown a long - term upward trend. It is recommended to construct a bull call option combination strategy for direction and a covered strategy for spot [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the soybean/meal market, it is in a state of mixed long - and short - term factors. The cost of soybean imports is showing a stable and slightly rising trend, while the domestic meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and new supply - side drivers [3][5]. - For the palm oil market, the price is expected to remain above 4300 ringgit. The market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy, low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations and uncertain RVO rules. It is expected to be volatile and bullish [6][9]. - For the sugar market, the probability of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low due to increased production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, with increasing imports and high import profits, Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [11][12]. - For the cotton market, the USDA report and the suspension of tariffs are positive factors, but weak downstream consumption and slow de - stocking may cause short - term prices to remain in a high - level oscillation [14][15]. - For the egg market, large supply leads to weaker - than - expected prices in the peak season. The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, selling opportunities after rebounds should be focused on [17][19]. - For the pig market, the spot price has temporarily stabilized, and the market is expected to enter a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, low - price buying is recommended, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [21][22]. 3. Summary by Categories Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Tuesday night, US soybeans declined. Some regions had higher - than - expected soybean yields, and Brazilian premiums slightly decreased, leading to a drop in soybean import costs. Domestic meal spot basis was stable, with weak trading and good pick - up. Last week, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and this week, 2.4043 million tons are expected. The US soybean - growing area is expected to have less rainfall in the next two weeks, and the USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, with a 1.08 - million - ton decrease in US soybean production [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the stable and slightly rising trend of soybean import costs and the seasonal supply surplus in the domestic meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and new supply - side drivers [5]. Palm Oil - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month, and the 1 - 15 - day exports are expected to increase by 16.5% - 21.3%. From August 1 - 15, production increased by 0.88%, with a 1.78% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.51% increase in oil extraction rate compared to the same period last month. The MPOC expects palm oil prices to remain above 4300 ringgit. On Tuesday night, domestic oils declined due to the overall commodity market sentiment [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is supported by multiple factors but has upside limitations. It is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The closing price of the January contract was 5661 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.19%. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. In July, the average sugarcane yield in southern Brazil decreased by 5.6% year - on - year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The probability of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The closing price of the January contract was 14100 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The spot price remained unchanged, and the US cotton good - quality rate as of August 17 was 55%, up 2 percentage points from the previous week and 13 percentage points year - on - year [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices may remain in a high - level oscillation due to positive and negative factors [15]. Egg - **Important Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with some slight declines. The average price in the main production areas was 3.21 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and demand was weak, so egg prices may be stable or decline [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, selling opportunities after rebounds should be focused on [19]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price was half - stable and half - rising. The average price in Henan increased by 0.09 yuan to 13.77 yuan/kg, while that in Sichuan remained at 13.47 yuan/kg. Northern price increases may drive up prices in some regions, while central regions may remain stable [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to enter a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, low - price buying is recommended, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The stock market may experience intensified short - term volatility after continuous recent rises, but the overall strategy is to go long on dips. The bond market may return to a wide - range shock pattern in the short term, while the long - term interest rate trend is downward. For most commodities, prices are affected by various factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, policies, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends and adjustment ranges [3][6]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Index - News includes a photovoltaic industry symposium, satellite internet application promotion, high trading volume in the stock market, and an "AI + manufacturing" development plan. The trading logic is that policies support the capital market, and the short - term market may be volatile, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [2][3]. - The basis ratios of different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH are provided [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. News includes fiscal revenue data and global hedge funds buying Chinese stocks. The central bank conducted a net injection of 4657 billion yuan. The strategy is that the interest rate may decline in the long - term, and the bond market may be in a wide - range shock pattern in the short term [4][6]. Precious Metals - Domestic precious metals prices generally declined, while international prices rose slightly. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The short - term pressure on precious metals prices is due to the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the resilience of US economic data. Wait for Powell's speech to decide on silver long positions [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Copper prices may consolidate due to concerns about US tariffs and cooling "anti - involution" sentiment. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the overall price may wait for macro - economic drivers. The operating ranges of Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [10]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices oscillated and adjusted due to the expansion of US aluminum tariffs and cooling "anti - involution" sentiment. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is low, but the downstream consumption is weak. The short - term price may be in an oscillatory adjustment [11]. Zinc - Zinc prices have a large downward risk. The domestic zinc market is in an oversupply situation, and the LME market's structural disturbance is receding [12]. Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weak. The industry has a situation of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory of lead ingots is rising [13]. Nickel - Nickel prices may have a callback pressure in the short term, but there is support in the long term. If the price drops significantly, long positions can be established [14]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to oscillate. The supply is tight in the short term, and the demand is weak in the off - season [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium has adjusted. The supply and demand pattern improvement depends on the reduction of the ore end. Speculative funds are advised to wait and see, and holders can choose opportunities to enter the market [17]. Alumina - Alumina prices may be shorted on rallies. The supply of ore is disturbed, but the over - capacity pattern remains [18]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate. The market is weak, and the downstream procurement is cautious [19]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance. The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak [20]. Black Building Materials Steel - Steel prices may decline if demand cannot be repaired. The demand for rebar has decreased, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has increased. The inventory of both is rising, and the demand is insufficient [22][23]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices may adjust slightly. The supply is increasing, the demand is slightly weak, and the inventory is rising [24][25]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are expected to oscillate. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is not significantly improved. Soda ash prices are also expected to oscillate, with the price center expected to rise in the long - term, but the upward space is limited [26][27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have declined. Investment positions are advised to wait and see, and hedging positions can be considered. The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, and the final price will return to the fundamentals [28][29]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The over - capacity and high inventory problems remain. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, and the follow - up impact of warehouse receipts needs attention [31][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is advisable to wait and see. The long and short sides have different views on rubber prices, and the industry's tire production and inventory data are provided [35][36]. Crude Oil - Crude oil has the potential to rise, but the upward space is limited in the short term. The target price of WTI is set at $70.4 per barrel, and short - term long positions can be taken on dips [39][40]. Methanol - Methanol prices are advised to wait and see. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season [41]. Urea - Urea prices can be considered for long positions on dips. The supply is loose, the demand is average, and the price may break through the oscillatory range with positive news [42]. Styrene - Styrene prices may rise with the cost. The cost support exists, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is improving [43]. PVC - PVC prices are advised to wait and see. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high [46]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices may decline in the short term. The supply and demand situation is changing, and the inventory may accumulate [47]. PTA - PTA prices can be considered for long positions on dips with PX. The supply may accumulate, and the demand needs improvement [48]. p - Xylene - p - Xylene prices can be considered for long positions on dips with crude oil. The load is high, the inventory may decrease, and the valuation has support [49][50]. Polyethylene PE - Polyethylene prices are affected by cost and supply. The short - term contradiction has shifted, and short positions can be held [51]. Polypropylene PP - Polypropylene prices are expected to oscillate strongly with crude oil. The supply and demand are both weak in the off - season [52]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Hog prices may be in an oscillatory range. The short - term can focus on low - buying, the medium - term should pay attention to the upper pressure, and the far - month can use the reverse spread strategy [53]. Eggs - Egg prices may be stable or decline. The supply is large, and the short - term may fluctuate, while the medium - term can consider short positions after the price rebounds [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean meal prices follow the cost to oscillate. The import cost has a stable and slightly rising trend. Long positions can be tried on dips in the cost range [55][56]. Oils - Oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The fundamentals support the price center, but the upward space is limited [57][59]. Sugar - Sugar prices are likely to decline. The international and domestic supply is increasing, and the valuation is high [60]. Cotton - Cotton prices may oscillate at a high level. The USDA report is positive, but the downstream consumption is average [61].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The current US labor market has weakened significantly, and inflation still faces risks brought by tariffs, which allows the Fed to make relatively cautious statements on monetary policy in the near term. However, the Trump administration's interference with the Fed's independence is more significant, and Fed officials' statements on inflation vary greatly. After the release of non - farm data lower than expected, the objectivity of US economic data will be weakened, and Fed officials' views on monetary policy will have a greater impact on market expectations. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting this week, and the precious metal strategy suggests waiting for Powell's specific statement [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. US July PPI Data Shows Inflation Concerns, but Fed Officials' Statements Differ - US July CPI and PPI data show concerns about imported inflation. The overall CPI was lower than expected due to the decline in oil prices in July, while the core CPI was higher than expected mainly due to the sharp increase in used - car inflation and the impact of home - furniture prices. The US July PPI and import price data far exceeded expectations, indicating that the Trump administration's tariff policy has begun to have a significant impact on US prices [4]. - Fed officials' statements on inflation vary. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee believes that the data shows an "unsettling trend" in inflation, but he hopes to wait for more economic data and advocates further interest - rate cuts under the conditions of slowing inflation and a stable labor market. St. Louis Fed President Musalem believes that tariffs are being transmitted to inflation, and a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut in September does not match the currently announced economic data [5]. II. The US Labor Market Has Weakened, Focus on Powell's Statement This Week - The US July seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls change was 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The non - farm payrolls data for May and June were significantly revised downward, and government employment growth was almost "eliminated." In addition, the US manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs were both lower than expected [8][11]. - After the release of the non - farm data, Trump fired the director of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on the evening of August 22. His speech will have a significant impact on the trend of gold and silver prices. The market currently expects an 83.1% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, and there is also a pricing for another interest - rate cut in December. The precious metal strategy suggests waiting for Powell's specific statement. If his monetary policy speech is significantly dovish, it is recommended to buy gold and silver on dips [11].