Report Summary - The report is an agricultural product option strategy morning report, covering the analysis of various agricultural product options and providing corresponding strategy suggestions [2] - The overall market trend shows that oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, oils and agricultural by - products maintain a volatile market, soft commodity sugar fluctuates slightly, cotton consolidates strongly, and grains such as corn and starch are narrowly bullish [2] Market Conditions of Underlying Futures Price and Volume Changes - Among different option varieties, the prices and trading volumes of underlying futures contracts have changed to different degrees. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2603) decreased by 7 to 4,326, with a trading volume of 2.70 million lots, a decrease of 1.47 million lots compared to the previous period; the price of soybean meal (M2603) decreased by 29 to 3,098, with a trading volume of 24.46 million lots, an increase of 7.74 million lots [3] Option Factors Analysis Volume - to - Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume - to - open interest PCR values and their changes, which reflect the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.37, with a change of 0.08, and the open interest PCR is 0.95, with a change of - 0.04 [4] Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of soybean No.1 is 4,500 and the support point is 4,000 [5] Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties also varies, and the weighted implied volatility has different degrees of change. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean No.1 decreased by 0.36 to 15.39% [6] Strategy and Suggestions Oilseeds and Oils Options - For soybean No.1, the fundamental situation shows that the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in February 2026 has a slight weekly increase, the import cost has a weekly decrease, and the crushing profit on the disk has a weekly increase. The market trend is a short - term bullish rebound. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy to obtain time value and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - For soybean meal, the fundamental situation shows that the average daily提货 volume of major oil mills has a slight decrease, and the inventory has a weekly and year - on - year increase. The market is in an oversold rebound. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - For palm oil, the fundamental situation shows that the production in December has a significant decrease and the export has a slight increase. The market is a rebound with upper pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy with a short delta and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] Agricultural By - products Options - For live pigs, the fundamental situation shows that the prices of piglets, live pigs, and sows have different degrees of changes, and the average slaughter weight has a slight decrease. The market is a weak short - term oversold rebound. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long - spot covered call strategy [10] - For eggs, the fundamental situation shows that the inventory at the production and circulation ends has increased, indicating a short - term oversupply. The market is a rebound with upper pressure. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [11] Soft Commodities Options - For sugar, the fundamental situation shows that the import volume in November 2025 has a year - on - year decrease, but the cumulative import volume from January to November has a year - on - year increase. The market is a weak short - term oversold rebound. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] - For cotton, the fundamental situation shows that the processing and inspection volume of cotton in the 2025 cotton year has reached a certain scale. The market is a short - term bullish upward trend. Option strategies include constructing a call option bull spread strategy and a long - spot collar strategy [13] Grains Options - For corn, the fundamental situation shows that the price of corn starch is stable with a weak trend, and the farmers' sentiment of holding back sales is strong. The market is a rebound with lower support. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, with the expected re - inflow of institutional allocation funds at the beginning of the year and the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, although the market's economic expectations have improved, the sustainability of economic recovery momentum is uncertain. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak, affected by factors such as the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations in the first quarter [8]. - For precious metals, they may face short - term corrections in January due to the Fed's possible inaction, but this does not mean the end of the upward cycle. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to be volatile. For example, copper is expected to oscillate in the short term, aluminum is expected to remain at a high level, and zinc is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium term [12][14][17]. - For black building materials, the black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern. Steel prices may be affected by factors such as market rumors, hot - rolled coil de - stocking, and "dual - carbon" policies. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, mainly affected by factors such as steel mill restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [35][37]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different outlooks. For example, rubber can be traded with a neutral mindset or put on the sidelines; oil prices are recommended to be traded with a low - buy and high - sell strategy after testing OPEC's export price - support willingness [58][60]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; for other products, trading strategies vary according to their fundamentals [83][85]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology warned about the irrational competition in the lithium - battery industry, Sichuan set the medical service prices for brain - computer interfaces, the market regulator interviewed photovoltaic leaders, and S&P Global predicted an increase in global copper demand [2]. - **Base - ratio of Stock - Index Futures**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different base - ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a medium - to - long - term strategy of going long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Thursday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed. The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on Japan [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted a 99 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse - repurchase operation, with a net injection of 99 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak, affected by factors such as stock - market trends, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [8]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver changed, and Trump and Fed officials' statements boosted the market's expectations of loose monetary policies. The total holdings of SLV silver ETF increased [9]. - **Strategy**: Precious metals may face short - term corrections in January, but this does not mean the end of the upward cycle. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: The market regulator interviewed photovoltaic enterprises, causing a decline in copper prices. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [11]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with support from supply and pressure from demand [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Domestic sentiment cooled, and the price of Shanghai aluminum weakened relatively. Aluminum inventory increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to remain at a high level, supported by low overseas inventory and supply - side disturbances [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The price of Shanghai zinc index decreased, and zinc inventory changed. The base - ratio and other indicators also had corresponding changes [15][16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium term and follow the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term [17]. Lead - **Market News**: The price of Shanghai lead index decreased, and lead inventory changed. The base - ratio and other indicators also had corresponding changes [18]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to follow the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector and have a wide - range oscillation [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices dropped significantly, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [20]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of nickel prices may have been reached. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines in the short term [20]. Tin - **Market News**: The price of Shanghai tin decreased, and the supply and demand of tin changed. Tin inventory increased [21]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate according to market sentiment. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The price of carbonate lithium increased, and inventory changed [23]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines or make light - position attempts due to the high risk of price corrections [24]. Alumina - **Market News**: The price of the alumina index decreased, and the base - ratio changed [25]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines. If there is no actual production cut, short positions can be established on rallies [28]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The price of the stainless - steel contract decreased, and the price of raw materials and inventory changed [29]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to operate with caution due to the large price fluctuations [30]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy contract decreased, and inventory changed [31]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to remain at a high level, supported by cost and supply - side disturbances [32]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the registered warehouse receipts and inventory changed [34]. - **Strategy**: The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern. Pay attention to market rumors, hot - rolled coil de - stocking, and "dual - carbon" policies [35]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The price of the iron - ore contract decreased, and the base - ratio and inventory changed [36]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, mainly affected by factors such as steel mill restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The price of the glass contract increased, and the price of soda - ash contract decreased. The inventory of both changed [38][40]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices have limited upward space due to weak demand; soda - ash prices are volatile due to the game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors [39][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon contracts decreased, and the prices of spot and base - ratio changed [42]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is positive, but pay attention to the impact of factors such as manganese - ore cost and supply contraction. It is recommended to pay attention to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The prices of industrial - silicon and polysilicon contracts decreased, and the prices of spot and inventory changed [47][49]. - **Strategy**: Industrial - silicon prices are expected to be under pressure due to weak fundamentals; polysilicon prices are weak, and it is recommended to operate with caution [48][51]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices showed signs of weakness, and the opening rate of tire enterprises and inventory changed [53][55]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral trading strategy or remain on the sidelines. Short positions can be established if the price falls below 16,000 [58]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The price of INE crude - oil futures decreased, and the inventory of related refined oil products changed [59]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines in the short term and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [60]. Methanol - **Market News**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed, and MTO profit was reported [61]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips due to low valuation and improved future prospects [62]. Urea - **Market News**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed, and the base - ratio was reported [63]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals [64]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and indicators such as base - ratio, supply, and demand also changed [65]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [66]. PVC - **Market News**: The price of the PVC contract increased, and the prices of raw materials, inventory, and base - ratio changed [67]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term due to strong supply and weak demand [69]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The price of the EG contract increased, and the prices of raw materials, inventory, and base - ratio changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs improvement through production cuts. Be cautious about rebound risks in the short term and expect valuation compression in the medium term [71]. PTA - **Market News**: The price of the PTA contract remained flat, and the prices of raw materials, inventory, and base - ratio changed [72]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term de - stocking. Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium term [73]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The price of the PX contract decreased, and the prices of raw materials, inventory, and base - ratio changed [74]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to have a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium term [75]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The price of the PE contract decreased, and the prices of raw materials, inventory, and base - ratio changed [76]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The price of the PP contract decreased, and the prices of raw materials, inventory, and base - ratio changed [78]. - **Strategy**: The PP price may bottom out after the supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [80]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: Domestic pig prices showed different trends, and the procurement enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and pay attention to the support of far - term contracts [83]. Eggs - **Market News**: National egg prices were mostly stable, and the supply and demand situation was general [84]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [85]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The prices of protein - meal futures decreased, and the prices of spot and base - ratio changed. Export and inventory data also changed [86][87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines in the short term due to the intertwining of long and short factors [88]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: The prices of oil and fat futures changed, and the prices of spot and base - ratio changed. Indonesia may adjust palm - oil export policies, and domestic inventory data changed [89][90]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. Oil and fat prices may be close to the bottom range [90]. Sugar - **Market News**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated, and the prices of spot and base - ratio changed. Export data of Brazil and relevant policies of India were reported [91][92]. - **Strategy**: International sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. The short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [93]. Cotton - **Market News**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures decreased, and the prices of spot and base - ratio changed. Export and inventory data also changed [94][95]. - **Strategy**: Zhengzhou cotton prices may have large short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on dips [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has significantly cooled, and the prices of finished steel products have slightly declined. The black - series is still in a bottom - range oscillation pattern and is sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and in the short - term, the macro level is in a policy window period. Attention should be paid to the destocking of hot - rolled coils and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The upper space is restricted by high inventory and the expectation of loose supply, while the lower space is supported by restocking expectations. Follow - up attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [6]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact and high - volatility risk of previous "sentiment leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate on the market sentiment. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction issues due to losses [10][11]. - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are still weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure. For polysilicon, the demand is weak, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The price is affected by the price increase of the industrial chain and the antitrust news [15][17]. - The glass price has risen recently due to cost support and supply - contraction expectations, but the short - term upward space is limited due to weak terminal demand. The soda ash market is in a stage of intense game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, and the disk volatility has increased significantly [20][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3168 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.59%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1211 tons to 55633 tons, and the position increased by 40419 hands to 1.7818 million hands. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar increased by 30 yuan/ton to 3210 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price remained unchanged at 3320 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3317 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.45%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 4706 tons to 108701 tons, and the position increased by 63008 hands to 1.4409 million hands. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils remained unchanged at 3300 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Views - The production of hot - rolled coils has increased slightly, demand has continued to weaken, and inventory has continued to decline slightly; the production of rebar has increased counter - seasonally, demand has declined, and inventory has slightly accumulated. The black - series is still in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to market rumors and information screening. Focus on the destocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 813.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.81% (-15.00). The position decreased by 29907 hands to 636700 hands, and the weighted position was 962000 hands. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.89 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.86% [5]. Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased. Demand: The daily average hot - metal output has continued to rise, and the steel mill profitability has slightly declined. Inventory: The port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 1.80% at 5892 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5780 yuan/ton, with a basis of 78 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 3.28% at 5668 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 182 yuan/ton [9]. Strategy Views - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact of previous "sentiment leaders" on the market sentiment. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction issues due to losses [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8535 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4.96% (-445). The weighted position increased by 13815 hands to 379966 hands. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 665 yuan/ton [13]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 53610 yuan/ton, with a change of - 8.04% (-4690). The weighted position decreased by 12083 hands to 116672 hands. The average price of SMM - caliber N - type granular silicon increased by 4 yuan/kg to 54.5 yuan/kg, and the basis was 1890 yuan/ton [16]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [15]. - Polysilicon: The demand is weak, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The price is affected by the price increase of the industrial chain and the antitrust news. Attention should be paid to the actual production reduction of enterprises and the actual spot transactions [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1163 yuan/ton, up 1.31% (+15). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1348000 boxes (-2.37%) to 55.518 million boxes. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 75448 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 28120 hands [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, down 2.52% (-32). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 164400 tons to 1.5727 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 54910 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 86643 hands [21]. Strategy Views - Glass: The price has risen recently due to cost support and supply - contraction expectations, but the short - term upward space is limited due to weak terminal demand [20]. - Soda ash: The market is in a stage of intense game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, and the disk volatility has increased significantly [22].

有色金属日报 2026-1-9 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 市场监管总局约谈 6 家光伏企业，国内商品情绪有所降温，昨日伦铜 3M 收跌 1.27%至 12072 美元/ 吨，沪铜主力合约收至 100230 元/吨。L ...

农产品早报 2026-01-09 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周四郑州白糖期货价格震荡，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5279 元/吨，较前一交易日下跌 2 元/吨，或 0.04%。 现货方面，广西制糖集团新糖报价 5320-5380 元/吨，报价较上个交易日持平；云南制糖集团新糖报价 5180-5230 元/吨，报价较上个交易日持平；加工糖厂主流报价区间 5810 元/吨，报价较上个交易日上涨 0-10 元/吨。广西现货-郑糖主力合约基差 41 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 根据印度食品与公共分配部(DFPD)发布的通知，政府将在 2026 年 3 月 31 日后审查糖厂的出口表现，并 可能将未使用的配额重新分配给出口表现更好的糖厂或有意愿的糖厂。据巴西对外贸易秘书处(Secex)公 布的出口数据显示，巴西 12 月出口食糖 291.3 万吨，较去年同期增加 8 ...

贵金属日报 2026-01-09 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 图 1：金银重点数据汇总 | 金银重点数据汇总 | | 单位 | 2026-01-08 2026-01-07 | | | 日度变化 日度涨跌幅 近一年历史分位数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | COMEX报告区间为: | 2026-01-08 2026-01-07 | | | | | | 收盘价（活跃合约） | | 美元/盎司 | 4487.90 | 4467.10 | 上涨 | 0.47% | 98.01% | | 成交量 | | 万手 | 19.19 | 19.71 | 下跌 | -2.63% | 46.03% | | COMEX黄金 | 持仓量（CFTC最新报告期：周) 万手 | | 48.19 | 49.21 | 下跌 | -2.08% | 58.49% | | 库存 | | 吨 | 1132 | 1132 | ...

有色金属研究 | 镍 专题报告 2026-01-09 剧烈反弹之后，如何看待镍价走势？ 报告要点： 近期镍价强势反弹更多体现为宏观交易逻辑主导的估值修复，而非产业供需格局发生实质性改 善。在商品普涨与风险偏好抬升的背景下，宏观资金持续流入显著改变了盘面主导力量，推动 价格突破前期震荡区间。 刘显杰（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 基本面层面，2026 年在印尼矿端配额供应相对充裕、后续新增项目投产的假设下，镍产业链过 剩压力仍较为突出，中长期镍铁与精炼镍价格仍面临向下修正风险；尤其精炼镍在短期溢价快 速扩大后，或将通过转产与增产机制引发供给弹性释放，进而抑制其估值持续扩张空间。考虑 到当前多头资金体量较大、短期内难见明显撤退迹象，同时印尼配额缩减（RKAB）叙事尚无法 证伪，镍价或仍将维持一定风险溢价，后市更大概率转入高位宽幅震荡格局。需重点关注两类 验证信号：一是 LME 与国内显性库存是否出现持续累积；二是盘面资金（尤其基金端）持仓是 否出现明显减仓或多头离场迹象，若两者同步出现，则本轮上涨行情可能逐步进入尾声。 吴坤 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the outlook for next year is marginally improving with limited downside. Due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, there will be bearish fundamentals, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The short - term trading strategy is neutral, with a short - selling strategy if it falls below 16,000. It is also recommended to partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [10][11][14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. In the short - term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, while in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large upward repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the futures price may bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage after short - term inventory drawdown. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks in the short - term due to the tense situation in Iran [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.02% decline, at 416.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 1.00 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase, to 2458.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 33.00 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase, to 2929.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels to 419.06 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 413.46 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 242.04 million barrels, a 3.29% increase; diesel inventories increased by 5.59 million barrels to 129.27 million barrels, a 4.52% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 22.98 million barrels, a 0.27% decrease; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.05 million barrels to 44.03 million barrels, a 0.11% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 15 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 127 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The tire开工率 has marginally deteriorated. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than the previous week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than the previous week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 118.2 tons as of December 21, 2025, a 2.5% increase from the previous month [10][11][12]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral short - term trading strategy, or wait and see. Short if it falls below 16,000. Partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 53 yuan to 4972 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 255 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous period, with the calcium - carbide method at 78.4% (a 0.1% decrease) and the ethylene method at 79.3% (a 5% increase). The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. Factory inventory was 30.9 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons), and social inventory was 106.3 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons) [15]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium - term before significant production cuts in the industry [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5442 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 122 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The basis was 118 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 138.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 99.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The EB spread between the first and second contracts was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6628 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 103 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 39.54 tons, a 2.47 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.93 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase [22]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 144 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 46.77 tons, a 2.3 - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 20.47 tons, a 2.75 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 7.11 tons, a 0.48 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 144 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan decrease [24][25]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the oversupply situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom out [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 7286 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 14 dollars to 886 dollars. The basis was 1 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 42 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX operating rate was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase. A 820,000 - ton overseas plant in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. In December, South Korea exported 433,000 tons of PX to China, a 42,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In November, the inventory was 4.02 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 367 dollars (a 2 - dollar decrease), the South Korean PX - MX was 147 dollars (a 7 - dollar decrease), and the naphtha crack spread was 90 dollars (a 1 - dollar decrease) [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract remained unchanged at 5150 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5070 yuan. The basis was - 48 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged. Some plants were under maintenance or restarted. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) was 203 tons as of January 4, a 25,000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 43 yuan to 367 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market increased by 14 yuan to 384 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, paying attention to the rhythm [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 41 yuan to 3879 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan to 3717 yuan. The basis was - 143 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ethylene glycol operating rate was 73.9%, a 0.2% increase, with the syngas - based method at 78.6% (a 2.8% increase) and the ethylene - based method at 71.3% (a 1.2% decrease). Some plants were under maintenance or planned to start production. The import arrival forecast was 178,000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on January 7 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 72.5 tons, a 5000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 756 yuan, that of domestic ethylene - based production was - 892 yuan, and that of coal - based production was 188 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 540 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious of short - term rebound risks due to the tense situation in Iran. Expect further valuation compression in the medium - term without further production cuts in China [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market, including the Shanghai Composite Index, large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks, shows a bullish upward trend [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has declined to a level below the historical average [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct bullish seller strategies and call option bull spread combination strategies; for index options, in addition to the above strategies, an arbitrage strategy of synthetic long futures with options and short futures can also be considered [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,085.77, up 2.11 points or 0.05%, with a trading volume of 119.74 billion yuan, an increase of 21.7 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,030.56, up 8.01 points or 0.06%, with a trading volume of 165.67 billion yuan, an increase of 26 billion yuan [4]. - The SSE 50 Index closed at 3,145.12, down 13.64 points or 0.43%, with a trading volume of 16.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.7 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,776.67, down 14.03 points or 0.29%, with a trading volume of 66.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.5 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,875.08, up 60.95 points or 0.78%, with a trading volume of 58.27 billion yuan, an increase of 11.1 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,906.42, up 41.52 points or 0.53%, with a trading volume of 61.79 billion yuan, an increase of 37.1 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option - Underlying ETF Market Overview - The SSE 50 ETF closed at 3.220, down 0.015 or 0.46%, with a trading volume of 6.1297 million shares, an increase of 6.0652 million shares, and a trading value of 1.977 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.097 billion yuan [5]. - The SSE 300 ETF closed at 4.901, down 0.018 or 0.37%, with a trading volume of 9.334 million shares, an increase of 9.2288 million shares, and a trading value of 4.578 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.563 billion yuan [5]. - Other ETFs' trading data are also presented in detail in the report [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - The PCR indicators of various options, including trading volume PCR and position PCR, are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option - underlying market and the turning point of the market [6][7]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of various options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [8][10]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility, are presented [11][12]. 3.6 Strategy and Suggestions - **Financial Stock Sector (SSE 50 ETF)**: The SSE 50 ETF shows a bullish upward trend. It is recommended to construct a call option bull spread combination strategy, a seller - biased long combination strategy, and a spot long covered call strategy [14]. - **Large - Cap Blue - Chip Stock Sector (SSE 300 ETF)**: The SSE 300 ETF shows a moderately bullish trend. Suggested strategies include a call option bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options, and a spot long covered call strategy [14]. - **Small and Medium - Cap Stock Sector (SSE 500 ETF)**: The SSE 500 ETF shows a moderately bullish trend. Recommended strategies are a call option bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options, and a spot long covered call strategy [15]. - **Large - and Medium - Cap Stock Sector (SZSE 100 ETF)**: The SZSE 100 ETF shows a bullish high - level oscillating and slightly rising trend. Strategies include a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options and a spot long covered call strategy [15]. - **ChiNext Sector (ChiNext ETF)**: The ChiNext ETF shows a bullish trend. Strategies include a short - volatility strategy and a spot long covered call strategy [16]. - **Small and Medium - Cap Stock Sector (CSI 1000)**: The CSI 1000 Index shows a moderately bullish trend. Recommended strategies are a call option bull spread combination strategy and a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report shows the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open - interest changes of various energy - chemical futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil contract SC2602 is 416, with a decrease of 9 and a decline rate of 2.19%, trading volume of 111,000 lots, and an open interest of 33,000 lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - The report presents the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open - interest change, trading - volume PCR, volume - PCR change, open - interest PCR, and open - interest - PCR change of various energy - chemical options. For instance, the trading - volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.53, with a change of 0.03, and the open - interest PCR is 0.45, with a change of - 0.08 [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - It shows the underlying contract, at - the - money strike price, pressure points, pressure - point offsets, support points, support - point offsets, maximum call - option open interest, and maximum put - option open interest of various energy - chemical options. For example, the pressure point of crude oil options (SC2602) is 450 and the support point is 400 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report provides information on the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted - implied - volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call - option implied volatility, put - option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and implied - historical - volatility difference of various energy - chemical options. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 35.09%, and the weighted implied volatility is 43.46% with a change of 11.52% [7]. 3.3 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - Type Options (Crude Oil and LPG) - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation involves geopolitical events and OPEC+ production policies. The market has shown a weak - bearish trend recently. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for the volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for the spot long - hedging strategy [8]. - **LPG**: The supply has no significant increase, and the chemical demand supports the price. The market shows an oscillating - decline bearish trend. Option strategies are similar to those of crude oil, with a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - Type Options (Methanol and Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol**: The import volume from Venezuela and domestic inventory conditions affect the price. The market shows an upward - rebound trend after a decline. Option strategies include a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory situation impacts the price. The market shows a weak - bearish trend. Option strategies include a short - volatility strategy for volatility and a long - spot + long put + short out - of - the - money call strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Olefin - Type Options (PVC) - PVC: The production - capacity utilization rate and the market show a bearish trend followed by a rebound. Option strategies include a bull - spread call - option combination strategy for directionality and a long - spot + long at - the - money put + short out - of - the - money call strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.4 Rubber - Type Options (Rubber and Synthetic Rubber) - **Rubber**: The inventory and production data affect the price. The market shows a warming - up upward trend. Option strategies include a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: No detailed fundamental and strategic analysis is given in the text. 3.3.5 Polyester - Type Options (PTA) - PTA: The market start - up rate and production affect the price. The market shows a short - term strong upward - rebound trend. Option strategies include a bull - spread call - option combination strategy for directionality and a short - bullish call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.3.6 Alkali - Type Options (Caustic Soda and Soda Ash) - **Caustic Soda**: The capacity utilization rate and the market show a weak - bearish trend. Option strategies include a bear - spread combination strategy for directionality and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The effective production capacity and the market show a low - level weak - oscillating trend. Option strategies include a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.3.7 Other Options (Urea) - Urea: The daily production volume and the market show a short - term weak - bearish trend. Option strategies include a short - bullish call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long - spot + long at - the - money put + short out - of - the - money call strategy for spot hedging [14].