Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on ferrous alloys dated March 19, 2026[1] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF main contract closed at 5824, up 28 from the previous day and down 98 for the week. Trading volume was 107,934, down 61,847 from the previous day, and open interest was 169,839, down 4,644[3] - SM main contract closed at 6188, up 50 from the previous day and up 26 for the week. Trading volume was 173,565, down 74,656 from the previous day, and open interest was 344,535, down 10,825[3] Spot - For ferrosilicon, 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5620, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 for the week. In other regions, prices also showed different changes[3] - For silicomanganese, 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5920, down 30 from the previous day and up 20 for the week. Other regions also had price fluctuations[3] Basis/Spread - For ferrosilicon, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was -204, down 28 from the previous day and up 68 for the week. Other regional bases also changed[3] - For silicomanganese, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was -268, down 80 from the previous day and down 6 for the week. Other regional bases also changed[3] - The SF - SM spread was -364, down 22 from the previous day and down 124 for the week[3] Raw Materials - For manganese ore in Tianjin, Australian lump was priced at 43.8, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.3 for the week. Other types of manganese ore also had price changes[3] - For semi - coke small materials, prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged[3] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, the market is in a positive feedback of demand and cost, and prices are expected to be volatile and bullish[6][7] - Arbitrage: Hold off for now[7] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options[7] Key Information - From January to February, the national cumulative production of crude steel was 160.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. The cumulative daily output was 2.7176 million tons. The production of pig iron was 137.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%, and the cumulative daily output was 2.3339 million tons. The production of steel was 221.19 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, and the cumulative daily output was 3.749 million tons[8] - In January - February 2026, China's air - conditioner production was 40.118 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. Refrigerator production was 16.643 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Washing machine production was 18.579 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%[8] Group 4: Related Attachments Ferrosilicon - The monthly spread of ferrosilicon showed different values on different days, such as the 1 - 2 spread being 48 today, 40 yesterday, 48 last week, and 18 last month[12] - The basis of ferrosilicon (main contract - Inner Mongolia) and other regional bases are presented in the figure[17] - The cost and profit of ferrosilicon in different regions are as follows: Inner Mongolia had a production cost of 5500 yuan/ton and a profit of 80 yuan/ton; Ningxia had a production cost of 5401 yuan/ton and a profit of 99 yuan/ton; Shaanxi had a production cost of 5505 yuan/ton and a loss of 25 yuan/ton; Qinghai had a production cost of 5849 yuan/ton and a loss of 349 yuan/ton; Gansu had a production cost of 5687 yuan/ton and a loss of 187 yuan/ton[19] Silicomanganese - The monthly spread of silicomanganese also showed different values on different days, such as the 1 - 2 spread being -22 today, -92 yesterday, -24 last week, and -22 last month[14] - The basis of silicomanganese (main contract - Inner Mongolia) and other regional bases are presented in the figure[17] - The cost and profit of silicomanganese in different regions are as follows: Inner Mongolia had a production cost of 6075 yuan/ton and a loss of 225 yuan/ton; Ningxia had a production cost of 6066 yuan/ton and a loss of 286 yuan/ton; Guangxi had a production cost of 6290 yuan/ton and a loss of 340 yuan/ton; Guizhou had a production cost of 6176 yuan/ton and a loss of 276 yuan/ton[22] - The electricity prices for ferrous alloys in different regions are presented in the figure, with today's prices in Gansu being 0.405 yuan/kWh, Guangxi 0.55 yuan/kWh, etc.[17]

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3210 yuan (-20), Beijing Jingye is 3170 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3290 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3220 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - Core view: The black metal market oscillated weakly today, and steel prices declined. This week, the output of the five major steel products continued to increase, with the growth rate of rebar output slowing down and hot-rolled coil turning to production increase. It is expected that the molten iron output will rebound this week. The resumption of work at downstream construction sites and the availability of funds continued to improve this week, leading to an increase in the apparent demand for building materials and a reduction in rebar inventory. However, the apparent demand is still declining year-on-year, and the recovery speed has slowed down. Recently, the export orders have been good, resulting in an improvement in the supply and demand of hot-rolled coils and an accelerated reduction in inventory, but the overall inventory level is still high, and there is pressure on supply and demand. However, the conflict between the US and Iran has intensified recently, and energy prices and shipping freight rates have continued to rise. If the friction intensifies in the future, it may drive up the raw material cost of steel. Recently, there has been a rumor that the import of Newman powder is blocked, and the iron ore price is supported. Therefore, the short-term steel price will maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend affected by overseas and raw materials. In the future, attention still needs to be paid to the molten iron production situation, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain an oscillating trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels, and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Group 4: Important Information - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January to February 2026, China's air conditioner output was 40.118 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. The national refrigerator output was 16.643 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. The national washing machine output was 18.579 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%. The national color TV output was 24.678 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [8] - This week, the small-sample output of rebar was 2.0333 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 80,300 tons. The apparent demand was estimated to be 2.0809 million tons (a year-on-year decrease of 15.2% in the lunar calendar), a month-on-month increase of 312,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 34,200 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 13,400 tons, with a total inventory decrease of 47,600 tons. The output of hot-rolled coils this week was 3.0021 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 49,500 tons. The apparent demand was estimated to be 3.1051 million tons (a year-on-year decrease of 3.67% in the lunar calendar), a month-on-month increase of 151,500 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 43,200 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 59,800 tons, with a total inventory decrease of 103,000 tons [8][9] Group 5: Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as the basis of rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts, price spreads, and profit margins [14][16][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market remains relatively loose in supply and demand, but the focus of market influence may lie in macro factors and subsequent soybean demand, with relatively high uncertainty [4][5] - The domestic spot supply is gradually tightening, and the market is reacting to potential supply shortages, with prices showing some support [6] - The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate widely, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will also fluctuate [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The soybean meal futures prices showed a downward trend, with the 01 contract closing at 3049, up 9; the 05 contract at 3042, up 6; and the 09 contract at 3009, up 5. The rapeseed meal futures prices also had some changes, with the 01 contract at 2380, up 12; the 05 contract at 2443, unchanged; and the 09 contract at 2438, up 11. The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions also changed to varying degrees [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of soybean meal showed a significant downward trend, while the monthly spread of rapeseed meal followed suit, mainly due to relatively high supply pressure [3] - **Cross - Variety Futures Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts (05 and 09) and the oil - meal ratio (01) also had certain changes [3] - **Spot Spread**: The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as between soybean meal and sunflower meal, increased [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The US soybean carry - over inventory is estimated to be around 350 million bushels, slightly higher than market expectations. The supply in South America has been affected, with some institutions lowering the Brazilian soybean yield, but the impact on the final yield is expected to be limited. The Brazilian old - crop has good export and crushing performance, while the new - crop export is expected to increase significantly. The demand for the old - crop in Argentina is good, but the new - crop yield has decreased [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot supply is gradually tightening, with the oil mill operating rate likely to decline after a short - term increase. The market transactions have increased, but the supply has decreased, and the inventory has shown a downward trend. The demand for rapeseed meal is generally average, with the oil mill operating rate increasing slightly, but the supply pressure still exists [6] 3.3 Logical Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market continues to face downward pressure, and the driving force for further price increases is limited. The key factors are subsequent exports and demand [7] - **South American Soybeans**: The South American soybean quotes are relatively strong, but the overall changes are limited, and it takes time for inland pressure to be transmitted to the export market [7] - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal fundamentals change little, but the spot supply is tightening due to uncertain soybean arrivals. The basis continues to rise, and the price is supported to some extent, but the sustainability is limited [7] - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal, with limited pressure. The supply of rapeseed has increased, but the inventory is still at a relatively low level. The price has support, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will fluctuate widely [7] 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: The fundamentals of soybean meal and rapeseed meal face certain pressure, but due to increased market disturbances, they are expected to fluctuate widely [8] - **Arbitrage**: Narrow the MRM09 spread [8] - **Options**: Seagull put option (for reference only) [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: March 19, 2026 [2] 1. IM Futures 1.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7909.23, down 2.31%. The main contract (IM2606) fell 2.14% to 7681 points. [4] - The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 282,196 lots, an increase of 28,223 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 394,837 lots, an increase of 5025 lots. [5] - The main contract was at a discount of 228.23 points, up 23.76 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -11.3%. [5] 1.2 Main Seats - In IM2603, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 46,395 lots, an increase of 7856 lots from the previous day. [16] - In IM2606, the top five seats in terms of long positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 11,869 lots, an increase of 769 lots from the previous day. [20] 2. IF Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4583.25, down 1.61%. The main contract (IF2606) fell 1.53% to 4502.2 points. [21] - The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 153,370 lots, an increase of 12,184 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 282,146 lots, an increase of 6721 lots. [22] - The main contract was at a discount of 81.05 points, up 7.68 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -6.84%. [22] 2.2 Main Seats - In IF2603, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 22,053 lots, an increase of 5836 lots from the previous day. [34] - In IF2606, the top five seats in terms of long positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 12,291 lots, an increase of 882 lots from the previous day. [37] 3. IC Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 7877.09, down 2.71%. The main contract (IC2606) fell 2.79% to 7671 points. [39] - The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 208,430 lots, an increase of 38,330 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 306,072 lots, an increase of 9180 lots. [40] - The main contract was at a discount of 206.09 points, up 5.94 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -10.21%. [40] 3.2 Main Seats - In IC2603, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 37,537 lots, an increase of 10,138 lots from the previous day. [56] - In IC2606, the top five seats in terms of long positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 11,332 lots, an increase of 541 lots from the previous day. [59] 4. IH Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 2916.23, down 1.53%. The main contract (IH2606) fell 1.62% to 2893.8 points. [61] - The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 68,881 lots, an increase of 14,363 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 110,567 lots, an increase of 6105 lots. [61] - The main contract was at a discount of 22.43 points, down 3.2 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -2.95%. [62] 4.2 Main Seats - In IH2603, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 9070 lots, an increase of 2902 lots from the previous day. [75] - In IH2609, the top five seats in terms of long positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 1969 lots, an increase of 38 lots from the previous day. [79]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Pig Daily Report" dated March 19, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure of the pig market is relatively large, and the price continues to decline. The overall downward pressure on pig prices in various regions has increased. The subsequent supply pressure still exists, and the market supply and demand are relatively loose in the short term. The price is mainly downward, and the futures price is expected to decline in the medium and long term [1][3][4] Group 4: Price Information Spot Prices - Today, the spot prices of pigs in various regions across the country are showing a downward trend. For example, the price in Henan dropped from 10.09 to 10.02, a decrease of 0.07. The average price dropped from 9.98 to 9.87, a decrease of 0.11 [3] Futures Prices - The futures prices of pigs continue to show a significant downward trend, but after a large decline recently, the overall decline has begun to narrow. For example, LH01 dropped from 13490 to 13405, a decrease of 85 [3][4] Sow/Piglet Prices - The piglet price dropped from 316 to 294, a decrease of 22, while the sow price remained unchanged at 1539 [3] Contract Spreads - For example, LH7 - 9 spread changed from -990 to -1130, a decrease of 140 [3] Spot Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising dropped from -237.98 to -283.15, a decrease of 45.17; the profit of purchasing piglets dropped from -58.89 to -118.18, a decrease of 59.29 [3] Slaughter Information - The slaughter volume increased from 151310 to 152327, an increase of 1017 [3] Size Pig Price Spreads - The price spread between standard pigs and medium pigs decreased from 0.51 to 0.5, a decrease of 0.01; the price spread between large pigs and standard pigs increased from 1 to 0.54, an increase of 0.02 [3] Group 5: Market Analysis - Scale enterprises' pig sales volume continues to decline, and it is expected that the sales volume this month will continue to increase. The sales volume of ordinary farmers has changed little recently and remains at a relatively low level, and the subsequent sales may increase. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, and the market entry is still relatively cautious. The pig slaughter weight remains at a relatively high level, and the supply - side pressure is still relatively obvious [3][4] Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to gradually close out the previous short positions - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see - Options: Sell wide - straddle strategy for near - month contracts [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors show various trends, with some being affected by cost, supply disruptions, and demand changes. For example, energy - related products are strongly influenced by the escalating Middle - East conflict, while some agricultural products are affected by planting area forecasts and supply - demand fundamentals [20][60][120]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is still volatile. Although there were short - term rebounds, trading volume did not increase significantly. It is recommended to use grid operations for single - side trading, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and adopt a double - buy strategy for options [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The safe - haven property of the bond market has increased. With the central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity, the bond market continued to recover on Wednesday. It is recommended to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The macro - environment has increased disturbances, and the market is in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to be cautious due to the large fundamental pressure. For single - side trading, there may be pressure but also potential for phased increases. MRM09 spread narrowing positions should be exited, and seagull put options should be exited [26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, while domestic sugar prices are expected to have limited downward space. It is recommended to be long on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options [30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oils may be in a high - level shock in the short term due to geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The outer - market 05 corn is expected to be bullish on dips, and the 05 corn is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to widen the 05 corn - starch spread on dips and wait and see for options [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the price is generally declining. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and use seagull put options [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is in a strong shock. It is recommended to go long on the 05 peanuts on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell pk605 - P - 7700 options [43][44]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens has decreased, and the egg price is mainly stable. It is recommended to short the June contracts on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][47]. - **Apples**: The inventory reduction speed is acceptable, and the price of high - quality apples is firm. It is recommended to exit and wait and see for the May contracts on the single - side, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [49][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and is expected to be in a slightly strong shock. It is recommended to go long on dips for the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [53][54]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The raw materials provide support, and the steel price is in a shock. It is recommended to maintain a slightly strong shock on the single - side, short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [56][57]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the development of geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to go long on dips on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [58][59]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply disturbances have increased, and it is recommended that spot enterprises conduct hedging at high prices. For arbitrage, enter the 5/9 spread reverse arbitrage at high levels, and wait and see for options [61][62]. - **Ferroalloys**: The price is in a high - level shock affected by the crude oil price. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical escalation and the Fed's hawkish stance have put double pressure on gold and silver. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors short cautiously with a shock - bearish idea. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [67][69]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The rise in oil prices has broken the Fed's bottom - support expectation, and the precious metal prices are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for platinum and palladium, and wait for low - buying opportunities for platinum. Wait for the low - level long - position opportunity of the platinum - palladium spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [70][71]. - **Copper**: The price has broken through the key support, and the center of gravity has moved down. It is recommended to be bearish on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [73][74]. - **Alumina**: Concerns about the supply of bauxite in Guinea have increased the price volatility. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock on the single - side, buy spot delivery products and short futures for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [76][78]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical risks and macro - concerns have jointly increased the price shock. It is recommended to be in a shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [80][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The macro and micro factors have not resonated, and it fluctuates with the aluminum price. It is recommended to fluctuate with the aluminum price on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to the macro and capital sentiment. The price may be in a low - level shock in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips after stabilization, wait and see for arbitrage and options [85][86]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to wait and see for now [89][90]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait for the macro - environment to stabilize before considering going long lightly [91][92]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to wait for the macro - environment to stabilize on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage [94][95]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a range shock. It is recommended to conduct range operations on the single - side, and there is no suggestion for arbitrage and options [96]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in a short - term shock and waiting for policy guidance. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, and there is no suggestion for arbitrage and options [98][100]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Domestic and foreign problems have led to a weakening of the lithium price. It is recommended to be in a downward - moving shock range on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [101][103]. - **Tin**: The geopolitical conflict has escalated, and the tin price remains weak. It is recommended to be bearish on the single - side, wait and see for options [104][105]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The Iran conflict has escalated, and both sides have started to attack oil and gas facilities. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, and wait and see for arbitrage [106][108]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The situation between the US and Iran is still unclear, and it is necessary to pay attention to the weather in Western Australia. The long - term impact of the conflict on the dry - bulk shipping chain needs to be observed. There is no specific trading strategy provided [109][112]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market is still in the off - season, and the EU carbon price has fallen to an 11 - month low. The short - term carbon price in the EU is expected to be in a weak shock, and the long - term trend depends on official policies, geopolitical events, and the global energy supply recovery progress. For the Chinese carbon market, the second - batch quota transfer mechanism is expected to boost market activity. There is no specific trading strategy provided [113][116]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Middle - East situation has escalated again. It is recommended to be bullish on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [120][121]. - **Asphalt**: The main refineries have increased production cuts, and concerns about raw materials continue. It is recommended to be in a strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical drivers continue, and the cost is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [127][128]. - **LPG**: It has risen sharply following oil and gas. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [129][130]. - **Natural Gas**: Geopolitical risks continue, and the upward trend remains unchanged. For international LNG, it is recommended to wait and see; for US HH, the short - term market is relatively loose, and the subsequent trend needs to be observed. There is no specific trading strategy provided [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply, and PTA enterprises may be forced to cut production. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [135][136]. - **BZ & EB**: The raw material supply is short, and the fundamentals are good. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Middle - East conflict has intensified. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [142][144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The sales are light. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [145][146]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously decreasing. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [148][149]. - **Propylene**: The supply is tight. It is recommended to be in a slightly strong shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [150][151]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of PP enterprises has increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline has narrowed. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts on the single - side, hold short positions in the SPC L2605&PP2605 spread, and wait and see for options [152][153]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is weak. It is recommended to be in a shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [155][156]. - **PVC**: It is rising in a shock. It is recommended to go long on dips on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [158][159]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a wide - range shock with a weakening direction. It is recommended to be in a wide - range shock with a weakening direction on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [160][161]. - **Glass**: It is in a wide - range shock with a weakening direction. It is recommended to be in a wide - range shock with a weakening direction on the single - side, close the short - glass long - soda - ash arbitrage position, and wait and see for options [162][163]. - **Methanol**: It has led the rise significantly. It is recommended to hold long positions on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [165][166]. - **Urea**: It is mainly in a shock. It is recommended to be in a shock on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [168][169]. - **Pulp**: The inventory is high, and the pulp price is weakly adjusted. It is recommended to go short on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell SP2605 - P - 5000 options [170][172]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market purchases based on rigid demand. It is recommended to go short on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell OP2604 - C - 4200 options [174][175]. - **Log**: The import cost has increased. It is recommended to go long on dips on the single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options [176][177]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The NR warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU 05 and NR 05 contracts on the single - side, hold the short position of the NR2605 - RU2605 spread, and wait and see for options [180][182]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The monthly average price of crude oil has continued to reach new highs. It is recommended to go long on the BR 05 contract on dips, hold the short position of the BR2505 - RU2505 spread, and wait and see for options [184][186].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - Due to the good profit situation in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has declined, leading to a slowdown in overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg price performance, the overall de - stocking has weakened. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3659, down 11 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3400, up 18; JD09 closed at 3806, down 28. The 01 - 05 spread was 259, down 29; the 05 - 09 spread was - 406, up 46; the 09 - 01 spread was 147, down 17. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans had minor changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.17 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.35 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin. The national average price of culled chickens was 5.21 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [2][4][8]. - **Profit Calculation**: The profit per chicken was 4.91 yuan, up 0.61 yuan from the previous day. The average price of culled chickens was 5.21 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan. The average price of corn was 2452 yuan, down 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3384 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price Trends**: The national mainstream egg prices were mixed. Prices in Beijing, Northeast China, Shanxi, and Hebei increased, while those in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei were mostly stable [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly output of chicks in February was about 43.3 million, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4]. - **Chicken Culling**: In the week of March 5th, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of March 5th, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. The production - link inventory was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days; the circulation - link inventory was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days [5][6][7]. 3.3 Trading Logic - The good early - stage profit situation has led to a decline in the enthusiasm for culling and a slowdown in capacity reduction. After the Spring Festival, it is the egg consumption off - season. Although the inventory has alleviated, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall de - stocking. Therefore, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the spot price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas, the feed cost per jin of eggs, the inventory of laying hens, various spreads, basis, egg production profit expectations, and the weekly average profit per jin of fresh eggs. These charts cover data from multiple years, which helps in analyzing the long - term trends and fluctuations of the egg market [12][13][14][17][20][25][27][32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The apple market has a strong fundamental situation with low cold - storage apple inventory and high costs for May contracts. However, the upward momentum of the May contract is limited due to the high previous prices and upcoming position - limit regulations. The market is expected to shift its focus to the new - season apple production as the key growth period approaches, and the new - season apple is likely to have an increased production. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index decreased by 0.15 to 110.41, while the prices of various apple types such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits increased by 0.04 to 7.88 [2]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 rose by 8 to 8630, AP05 increased by 3 to 10121, and AP10 increased by 21 to 8786. The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 increased by 5 to - 1491, AP05 - AP10 decreased by 18 to 1335 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different contracts decreased, e.g., Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 decreased by 8 to - 630 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Market News**: As of March 12, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 499.72 million tons, a decrease of 27.81 million tons from the previous week and 24.34 million tons from the same period last year, with a decline of 4.6%. The apple market in the producing areas was stable, with good - quality goods in short supply. The sales in the market were okay, and the mainstream prices were stable. The prices in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces also showed different trends [7]. - **Trading Logic**: Although the apple fundamentals are strong, the upward momentum of the May contract is insufficient. The market will focus on the new - season apple production, and the new - season apple is expected to have an increased production. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side trading, it is recommended to exit the May contract and short the October contract on rallies. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 and Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, the basis of AP contracts, the spreads between different AP contracts, the apple arrival volume in some markets, the prices of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, and there is significant uncertainty. The situation in the Middle East and Mozambique is having an impact on the aluminum smelting industry, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. [1][16][20] - The supply and demand of various metals are in different states. For example, copper is in a seasonal destocking phase, while zinc has an increase in domestic inventory due to insufficient demand recovery compared to supply. [1][28] - The prices of different metals are expected to have different trends. For instance, copper prices may test key support levels, and aluminum prices are expected to be weak. [1][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2605 closed at 98,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5%. The Shanghai copper index increased its position by 9,477 lots to 576,000 lots. The spot market showed different price trends in different regions. [1] - **Important Information**: As of March 16, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 5.46% to 547,300 tons. The production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to February decreased year - on - year. Chile's copper production in January was 409,900 tons, and Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to February decreased by 9.1% year - on - year. [1] - **Logic Analysis**: The conflict between the US and Iran brings uncertainty. The African wet - process copper production may be affected by the shortage of sulfuric acid supply. The downstream consumption is strong, and the substitution of refined copper rods for recycled copper rods is prominent. [1] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see as the market sentiment weakens and copper prices test key support levels. For arbitrage and options, also wait and see. [3][4][5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2505 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,048 yuan/ton, and the weighted position decreased by 1,921 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend. [6] - **Related Information**: Guinea is discussing policies to restrict bauxite production and exports. The UAE's aluminum exports and raw material transportation are affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The registered volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased on March 18. China's alumina exports from January to February decreased year - on - year, while bauxite imports increased. New alumina production capacity is expected to be put into trial production. [7][8][9] - **Trading Logic**: The news of Guinea's policy on bauxite has magnified the price fluctuations of alumina. Although the policy details are not clear, the bauxite supply is in a surplus situation. In the short term, alumina prices may be firm, but the subsequent pressure will come from the supply side. There is a basis for spot - futures arbitrage. [10][12] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a decline in an oscillatory manner. For arbitrage, buy spot delivery products and sell futures. For options, wait and see. [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2605 contract decreased by 245 yuan/ton to 24,800 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 9,662 lots. The spot prices in different regions decreased. [16] - **Related Information**: Bahrain Aluminum and Mozal Aluminum have reduced production due to transportation interruptions. China's imports of unforged aluminum and aluminum products from January to February decreased year - on - year, while exports increased. The cancellation of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy may affect the orders of related factories. [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The situation in the Middle East is still tense, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. The reduction in aluminum smelting production in the Middle East and Mozambique continues, and there is a risk of economic weakness due to geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices. [20] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak performance. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [21][22] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Related Information**: Bahrain Aluminum and Mozal Aluminum have reduced production due to transportation interruptions. The warehouse receipt volume of casting aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange shows certain data. [23] - **Trading Logic**: The situation in the Middle East is tense, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. There is a risk of economic weakness. The supply of scrap aluminum is gradually released, but the demand recovery in the peak season is slow, and high prices and price fluctuations suppress purchasing willingness. [24] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a short - term weak performance following the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [25][26] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2605 contract decreased by 2.26% to 23,345 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 1.28 lots to 205,700 lots. The spot market in Shanghai showed that the downstream enterprises took advantage of the low - price to place orders, and the spot discount narrowed. [26] - **Related Information**: As of March 16, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased compared to previous periods. The downstream consumption recovery is slower than the arrival of smelter products. [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of refined zinc in China is increasing, while the demand recovery is insufficient, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. However, there is an expectation of overseas smelter production cuts due to rising energy prices, and the low LME zinc inventory provides some support for zinc prices. [29] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak oscillatory performance in the short term. Wait for the price to stabilize and then go long at low prices. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [30] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2605 contract rose 0.79% to 16,650 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index decreased by 11,100 lots to 133,000 lots. The actual shipment volume of recycled refined lead is limited, and downstream battery production enterprises are reluctant to accept the premium price. [31] - **Related Information**: As of March 12, the social inventory of lead ingots increased. The import window is open, and imported lead is increasing. [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in social inventory due to the delivery of goods by holders and the inflow of imported lead suppress the domestic lead market. However, the losses of recycled lead smelting enterprises are expanding, which provides some support for lead prices. [33] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, continue to hold profitable long positions and raise the stop - loss line to protect profits. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [35] Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price decreased by 130 to 17,255 US dollars/ton, the LME nickel inventory decreased by 174 to 283,740 tons, and the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread was - 206.69 US dollars/ton. [36] - **Important Information**: Greenmei has completed the rectification of the accident in Indonesia, and the production of MHP has resumed. The national economic data from January to February shows certain trends. [37] - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in copper prices and the market's trading of the recession expectation after the sharp rise in oil prices lead to a general decline in the non - ferrous metal sector. Although Greenmei has resumed production, the high cost of MHP provides cost support for nickel prices. In the short term, the macro - situation dominates the market. [37] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak oscillatory performance. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [38][39] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: Due to the geopolitical tension in West Asia, an Indian stainless - steel company has raised its product prices. The supply of industrial gas is interrupted, and logistics costs have increased. [40][42] - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas manufacturing is shrinking due to energy prices and supply issues, and some manufacturing orders are flowing back to China, but the fear of global economic recession still dominates the price trend. Stainless - steel prices are expected to follow the decline of nickel prices. [42] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait for the macro - situation to stabilize. For arbitrage, wait and see. [43] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2604 closed at 370,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9,820 yuan/ton or 2.59%. The position increased by 253 lots to 78,500 lots. The spot price decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious. [43] - **Related Information**: NVIDIA expects high revenue from its new AI chips. Nebius and Meta have reached a cooperation agreement. The supply of helium, an important raw material for chip cooling, is affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The situation in the Middle East is tense, and the impact of Indonesia's potential ban on tin exports is currently limited. China's imports of tin concentrates are increasing, but the production of refined tin in February decreased. The spot market is cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly consume inventory. [47] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect an oscillatory performance in the range due to the unclear situation between the US and Iran and the weakening supply support from Myanmar's resumption of production. For options, wait and see. [48] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: An industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia has its environmental impact assessment file accepted. [49] - **Logic Analysis**: In terms of supply and demand, the production of organic silicon and polysilicon increased in March, and the production of industrial silicon also increased. The overall supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. The low - price shipment willingness of manufacturers is not strong due to cost considerations. [50] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conduct range trading. For arbitrage and options, there is currently no suitable strategy. [51][52][53] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: GlobalData predicts that the global renewable energy installed capacity will increase significantly by 2031, with photovoltaic installed capacity being a major contributor. [54] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of polysilicon increased in March, and the silicon wafer production schedule also increased. The market is in a tight - balance state. The price strategy of manufacturers is divided, and the future price trend depends on whether the industry can maintain sales above the benchmark cost. [57] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect an oscillatory performance with insufficient liquidity, so wait and see. For arbitrage and options, there is currently no suitable strategy. [58][59][60] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: Tesla and LG Energy will invest in a battery factory in Michigan. An auction of lithium spodumene concentrate was completed. Rongbai Technology plans to adjust the equity structure of its South Korean subsidiary. [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The export of lithium mines from Zimbabwe will affect the domestic supply after May. The demand for batteries is high, and new production capacity of cathode materials will be put into operation in April. The supply and demand are marginally looser in March. Due to the external situation and regulatory environment, it is difficult for lithium prices to reach new highs, but there will be buying support if prices fall sharply. [62][64] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak oscillatory performance. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [65][66]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The additional issuance of 300,000 tons of import processing trade sliding duty quotas for cotton is likely to benefit US cotton and narrow the price gap between domestic and international markets The impact on the domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton in the long - term Recently, due to the decline in crude oil prices, cotton prices have fallen, but the decline is expected to be limited [6] - In the short - term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed significantly It is recommended to build long positions at low prices and avoid chasing high prices For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is okay, and the supply of medium - and high - count yarns may be tight in the future The overall situation of the all - cotton grey fabric market remains stable, with more domestic orders and few foreign orders The market is paying attention to the replenishment situation during the Tomb - sweeping Festival [11] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 150, 205, and 185 respectively The trading volume of CF05 and CF09 increased by 87,881 and 57,726 respectively, while that of CF01 decreased by 2,215 The open interest of CF01 and CF09 increased by 1,166 and 11,085 respectively, while that of CF05 decreased by 56,651 For the CY series, CY01 had no trading volume, and the closing prices of CY05 and CY09 decreased by 180 and 315 respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B increased by 13 to 16,897 yuan/ton, and the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 22,050 yuan/ton The price of Cot A increased by 2.3 to 78.75 cents/pound, and the price of FCY IndexC33S increased by 72 to 22,568 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: In the cotton inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May increased by 55 to 420, the spread between May and September decreased by 20 to - 95, and the spread between September and January decreased by 35 to - 325 In the yarn inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May increased by 180 to - 21,300, the spread between May and September increased by 135 to 65, and the spread between September and January decreased by 315 to 21,235 In the cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 increased by 150, CY05 - CF05 increased by 25, and CY09 - CF09 decreased by 130 The 1% tariff - based domestic - foreign cotton price spread decreased by 450 to 2,874, the sliding - duty domestic - foreign cotton price spread decreased by 87 to - 1,156, and the domestic - foreign yarn price spread decreased by 72 to - 518 [2] 2. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On March 17, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton remained unchanged at 0.1566 yuan/ton·km, and it is expected to remain stable in the short - term As of February 28, 2026, the CAI's assessment of India's 2025/26 cotton balance sheet shows that production increased by 60,000 tons, domestic demand increased by 170,000 tons, imports decreased by 50,000 tons, and ending inventory decreased by 160,000 tons compared with the previous month In 2026, China imported 210,000 tons of cotton in January and 170,000 tons in February, with a cumulative import of 370,000 tons from January to February, a year - on - year increase of 41% [4][5] - **Trading Logic**: The additional issuance of 300,000 tons of import processing trade sliding duty quotas for cotton is beneficial to US cotton, and it may also drive up the price of Zhengzhou cotton, but the impact on domestic supply is relatively small The short - term decline in cotton prices is limited due to market support [6] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to build long positions at low prices for US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is okay, and the supply of medium - and high - count yarns may be tight in the future The all - cotton grey fabric market remains stable, with more domestic orders and few foreign orders The market is waiting for the improvement of foreign orders in April and paying attention to the replenishment situation during the Tomb - sweeping Festival [11] 3. Options - **Option Data**: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC decreased by 16.9%, 17.7%, and 34.1% respectively The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, and the implied volatilities of CF605 - C - 14600, CF605 - C - 14200, and CF605 - P - 13800 are 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [13] - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667 for open interest and 0.4688 for trading volume, and the trading volume of both call and put options decreased today It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides eight figures, including the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [17][20][24][25]