1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices fell to the previous low and then rose sharply due to expected lower sugar production and higher consumption in 2026/27, although India's sugar production may exceed expectations. [8] - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure from increased supply during the peak crushing season, but the pressure is expected to ease due to the sharp rebound in international sugar prices and the easing of domestic macro - sentiment, with prices likely to oscillate at the bottom. [8] - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom after hitting the bottom and rebounding, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to have a bottom - oscillating price. [9] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options, and expect a bottom - oscillating trend for the unilateral position. [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,214 with a rise of 37 (0.71%), trading volume of 25,546 (a decrease of 14,196), and an open interest of 116,869 (an increase of 696); SR01 closed at 5,318 with a rise of 38 (0.72%), trading volume of 968 (an increase of 619), and an open interest of 2,391 (an increase of 743); SR05 closed at 5,210 with a rise of 43 (0.83%), trading volume of 215,851 (a decrease of 68,473), and an open interest of 451,761 (an increase of 262). [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5360 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Kunming 5150 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Wuhan 5620 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Nanning 5330 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), in Bayuquan 5435 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), in Rizhao 5415 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Xi'an 5750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The corresponding basis was 150, - 60, 410, 120, 225, 205, and 540 respectively. [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of SR05 - SR01 was - 108 (up 5), and the spread of SR09 - SR05 was 4 (down 6), and the spread of SR09 - SR01 was - 104 (down 1). [3] - **Import Profit**: The quota - free price for Brazilian imports was 3921 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 4977 yuan/ton, with a spread of 383 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou and 341 yuan/ton compared to the futures market. For Thai imports, the quota - free price was 3966 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5036 yuan/ton, with a spread of 324 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou and 282 yuan/ton compared to the futures market. [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In the 2026/27 sugar - crushing season, the EU's beet planting area is expected to decline by 5% - 7%, and the sugar production is expected to drop from 17.1 million tons in 2025/26 to about 15.5 million tons. [5] - **Important Information**: Brazil's ethanol production in 2026/27 is expected to increase by 7.9% year - on - year to a record high of 36.5 billion liters. The increase may exceed the domestic market's digestion capacity and promote an increase in exports. [6][7] - **Important Information**: As of February 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 199 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, with a cumulative cane crushing of 87.029 million tons (an increase of 21.269 million tons compared to the same period last season) and a sugar production of 8.0634 million tons, with an average sugar production rate of 9.27%. [7] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar influence has declined, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production may exceed expectations, sugar prices have risen after falling to the previous low due to expected lower production and higher consumption. Domestically, the sugar price pressure is expected to ease, and prices are likely to oscillate at the bottom. [8] - **Trading Strategies**: For the unilateral position, expect a bottom - oscillating price for international sugar and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach. [9][10][11] 3.3 Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between different regions and varieties, and basis and spreads of different futures contracts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND. [13][17][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over. The good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has eased, the overall reduction has weakened recently due to the good egg price performance. It is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3756, up 69 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3385, down 20; JD09 closed at 3863, down 9 [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 371, up 89; the 05 - 09 spread was - 478, down 11; the 09 - 01 spread was 107, down 78 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.66, up 0.03; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.49, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.68, unchanged. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.28, up 0.01; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.24, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.35, down 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. The average price in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin. Egg prices in different regions showed a mixed trend of decline and stability [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [2][7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The profit per feather was 18.89 yuan, down 3.62 yuan. The average price of corn was 2372 yuan, down 1 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3178 yuan, unchanged; the price of laying hen compound feed was 2.61 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices showed a mixed trend of decline and stability [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5]. - **Culled Chicken Data**: In the week of January 16, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of January 16, the egg sales in representative selling areas were 7391 tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week, at a historical low [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of January 15, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan. On January 9, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, slightly reduced from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, also slightly reduced [6]. 3.5 Trading Logic - As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over. The good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. The number of culled chickens in the main producing areas in the week of January 23 was 16.27 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week. The average culling age was 490 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous week. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton fundamentals remain strong, with an upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [5]. - In the short - term, the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range. For trading strategies, it is advisable to build long positions on dips for the single - side, and to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70 points; CY05 decreased by 150 points, and CY09 decreased by 70 points. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 118,425, and its open interest decreased by 4,804 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price increased by 25 yuan/ton, while the FCY IndexC33S price decreased by 349. Other spot prices such as Cot A, Indian S - 6, etc., had different changes [2]. - **Spreads**: In cotton and棉纱, there were various spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 spread was 5,835, down 80 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 31, 2026, Pakistan's 2025/26 new cotton market volume reached 859,000 tons, a 0.6% year - on - year increase. Textile mills' purchases were 773,000 tons, up 0.2% year - on - year, and unsold new cotton was 54,000 tons, a 25% year - on - year decrease [4]. - As of January 31, 1,099 cotton processing enterprises in China conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 7.262 million tons. Among them, 1,018 enterprises in Xinjiang inspected 7.166 million tons, and 81 enterprises in the inland inspected 95,000 tons [4]. - As of January 31, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 78.6% complete, a 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, 22.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year, and 3.3 percentage points faster than the average of the past three years [4]. 3.2.2 Trading Logic - There are reports that Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to decrease by 266,000 mu to 3.621 million mu, a 7% reduction. However, several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang, which will benefit cotton consumption [5]. 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range in the short - term. Consider building long positions on dips [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Remain on the sidelines [6]. - **Options**: Remain on the sidelines [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton traded sideways. As logistics began to take holidays, the trading in the pure cotton yarn market weakened. Spinning mills focused on order fulfillment and inventory preparation, and the overall inventory decreased. The operating rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline, while that in Xinjiang remained high. The price of pure cotton yarn was stable, with some manufacturers testing price increases. Most inland spinning mills will finish their holidays around the 25th of the twelfth lunar month, and only a small number of Xinjiang spinning mills will take the Spring Festival holiday [7]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, cotton fabric mills reported a decrease in new orders. It is expected that the number of mills taking holidays will increase significantly this weekend. The finished - product inventory of cotton fabric mills remains high, and the price of cotton fabric is expected to remain stable in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2% [9]. - Yesterday, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [10]. - Option trading strategy: Remain on the sidelines [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant content provided 3. Summary by Related Catalog Futures Prices - DCE01 decreased from 753.5 to 741.0, a drop of 12.5 [2] - DCE05 decreased from 781.5 to 768.5, a drop of 13.0 [2] - DCE09 decreased from 764.5 to 751.0, a drop of 13.5 [2] Spread between Futures Contracts - I01 - I05 increased from -28.0 to -27.5, an increase of 0.5 [2] - I05 - I09 increased from 17.0 to 17.5, an increase of 0.5 [2] - I09 - I01 decreased from 11.0 to 10.0, a decrease of 1.0 [2] Spot Prices - PB powder (60.8%) increased from 777 to 780, an increase of 3 [2] - Newman powder increased from 777 to 780, an increase of 3 [2] - Mac powder increased from 773 to 775, an increase of 2 [2] Spot Variety Spreads - The spread between Carajás fines and PB powder decreased from 93 to 92, a decrease of 1 [2] - The spread between Newman powder and Jinbuba powder decreased from 47 to 46, a decrease of 1 [2] - The spread between Carajás fines and Jinbuba powder decreased from 144 to 142, a decrease of 2 [2] Import Profits - The import profit of Carajás fines decreased from -7 to -8, a decrease of 1 [2] - The import profit of Newman powder decreased from 50 to 49, a decrease of 1 [2] - The import profit of PB powder increased from 20 to 22, an increase of 2 [2] Platts Index - Platts iron ore 61% price increased from 102.0 to 102.3, an increase of 0.3 [2] - Platts iron ore 65% price increased from 118.0 to 118.5, an increase of 0.5 [2] - Platts iron ore 58% price increased from 93.4 to 94.0, an increase of 0.7 [2] USD Spread between Domestic and Overseas Markets - The spread between SGX main contract and DCE01 decreased from 4.7 to 4.2, a decrease of 0.5 [2] - The spread between SGX main contract and DCE05 decreased from 1.0 to 0.6, a decrease of 0.4 [2] - The spread between SGX main contract and DCE09 decreased from 3.3 to 2.8, a decrease of 0.5 [2]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/5 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7914 | -10 | -0.13% | 15,230 | 7.39% | 55,725 | 0.61% | | PK610 | 8232 | -6 | -0.07% | 80 | -25.23% | 2,693 | -0.88% | | PK601 | 8210 | -22 | -0.27% | 36 | -21.74% | 32 | 6.67% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7400 | 8000 | 8000 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - US corn supply pressure eases, expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. North China corn supply increases, with stable spot prices, while Northeast corn prices decline. The spot price is still weak in the short - term, but the purchase price at the northern port is strong today. North China wheat prices are strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn widens. The market is trading on the increased pre - Chinese New Year grain sales in North China, and there is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. Corn spot prices still have room to fall, and the 03 corn contract will also decline, but the decline of the 07 corn contract is limited [4][7][9]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increases, and Shandong corn spot prices are stable. Northeast starch spot prices are stable. Corn starch inventory has decreased this week. Starch prices mainly depend on corn prices and downstream stocking. By - product prices are weakening but are still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. North China corn is stable in the short - term, and Northeast corn is stable. Due to the end of pre - Chinese New Year stocking, corporate losses are expanding. The 03 starch contract oscillates narrowly following corn, and the spot price of starch stabilizes in the short - term. It is expected that the 03 starch contract will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures contracts (C2601, C2605, C2509) and corn starch futures contracts (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interests, and open interest change percentages are provided. For example, C2605 closed at 2273, up 2 with a 0.09% increase, trading volume of 272,543 with a 27.13% increase, and open interest of 829,931 with a 3.85% increase [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices are provided for different regions (Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, etc.), and starch spot prices are provided for different manufacturers (Longfeng, COFCO, etc.). The basis for both corn and starch is also given. For example, the corn price in Qinggang is 2135, with a basis of - 162 [2]. - **Price Difference**: Corn inter - period spreads (such as C01 - C05, C05 - C09), starch inter - period spreads (such as CS01 - CS05, CS05 - CS09), and cross - variety spreads (such as CS09 - C09, CS01 - C01) are presented, along with their price changes [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: US corn rebounds from the bottom but still oscillates at the bottom. The profit of imported foreign corn increases. The closing price at the northern port is strong, while Northeast corn spot prices continue to decline. North China corn supply increases, and the price is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn widens. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, and wheat prices are strong. The feed demand is stable, and downstream inventory increases. The 03 contract oscillates narrowly, and the spot basis strengthens. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Chinese New Year and downstream inventory building [4][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increases, and Shandong corn prices are stable. Northeast starch prices are stable. Corn starch inventory decreases. Starch prices depend on corn prices and downstream stocking. By - product prices are weakening but are still higher than last year. The 03 starch contract oscillates narrowly following corn, and the spot price stabilizes in the short - term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Go long on the 07 and 05 corn contracts on dips [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Reverse arbitrage on the 3 - 7 corn contracts, and widen the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts on dips [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Use the short - term cumulative put option strategy and operate in a rolling manner [11]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [15][16][21].

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 Z0021009 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn 黑色金属日报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 投资咨询证号： | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5650 | -4 | -86 | 130009 | 36892 | 89527 | 52894 | | SM主力合约 | 5884 | 16 | -42 | 161205 | 42354 | 350906 | -3315 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5440 | 20 | 40 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5650 | 0 | -20 | | ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 02 月 05 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3190 元（-10），北京敬业 3130 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3260 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3160 元（-）。 1.Mysteel：五大品种钢材整体产量-3.27 万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比+9.56 万 吨，社库+49.68 万吨，总库存+59.24 万吨。 2.2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 2128 万吨，平均日产 193.5 万 吨，日产环比下降 2.2%；生铁 1915 万吨，平均日产 174.1 万吨，日产环比下降 3.0%； 2/ 10 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面维持震荡偏弱走势，煤焦领跌，钢材现货成交整体一般偏弱，环比 昨日略有好转。本周钢联数据公布，五大材整体减产，但铁水仍然增产，钢 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, covering financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, the stock index showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.83%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.15%, and the CSI 1000 Index slightly fell 0.02%. The total market turnover was 2.5 trillion yuan. Stock index futures rebounded across the board [20]. - Core logic: Overnight U.S. technology stocks fell, affecting A - share technology stocks. However, the market remained stable and improved overall, with a style shift occurring. The short - term market is expected to remain oscillating strongly [20]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be oscillating strongly, buying on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [22]. - Core logic: The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity and the increase in risk appetite have slightly suppressed the bond market. In the short term, the market lacks a clear driver, and the bond market sentiment may become more cautious [22]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should consider buying TF and T contracts on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybean index rose 2.39% to 1099.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 2.38% to 300.9 dollars per short ton [25]. - Core logic: The improvement of trade relations has boosted the U.S. soybean market. South American dry weather also provides some support, but overall supply and demand are relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal cost is under pressure, but spot prices may be supported in the short term [26]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - Market performance: The previous trading day, the ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract price dropped 1.5% to 14.41 cents per pound, and the London white sugar main contract fell 1.46% to 411.2 dollars per ton [27]. - Core logic: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar influence is declining, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing production cycle. However, sugar prices have reached a low level, and some institutions' forecasts for the 2026/27 sugar production and consumption are favorable. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but the international price rebound and improved macro - sentiment may lead to a bottom - oscillating price [30]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect international and domestic sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - Market performance: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main price changed by 2.15% to 55.69 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by - 0.07% to 4219 ringgit per ton [33]. - Core logic: The market is affected by trade and policy expectations. Malaysian palm oil may reduce production and inventory in January, but the high - base inventory may remain at a relatively high level. The U.S. biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. However, soybean oil supply pressure may shift later. Rapeseed oil may have some support [33]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect oils to oscillate widely; for arbitrage, consider shorting the y59 spread at high levels; for options, stay on the sidelines [34]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Market performance: The night - trading session of the black sector was oscillating weakly. On the 4th, the construction steel trading volume was 3.61 million tons, and the trading volume continued to decline approaching the Spring Festival [57]. - Core logic: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price follows the raw materials to oscillate. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the winter demand is declining. However, the cost is supported by the steel mill's replenishment demand. The short - term steel price may oscillate strongly following coal [57]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should follow the raw materials to oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short coil - rebar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [58]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Market performance: Recently, the coking coal futures have fluctuated greatly due to news of Indonesia's coal policy [60]. - Core logic: The actual impact of Indonesia's coal production reduction policy remains to be seen. The current market is dominated by funds and emotions, and the coking coal valuation is not high. The supply - side events may be repeatedly traded [60]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be mainly for band trading, and cautious investors should stay on the sidelines. Consider buying on dips after a pull - back; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [61]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Market performance: The night - trading iron ore price fell 1.02%. The current macro - sentiment and capital game are significant, and the iron ore valuation is moderately high [63]. - Core logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand may be less than expected in the first half of the year. The domestic iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the high valuation is difficult to sustain. The iron ore price is expected to run weakly [63]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a weak operation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [63]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Market performance: London gold rose 0.36% to 4964.69 dollars per ounce, and London silver rose 3.44% to 88.13 dollars per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.64% to 1114 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.03% to 22955 yuan per kilogram [67]. - Core logic: The gold and silver markets first rose and then fell. The weak U.S. ADP employment data initially supported the prices, but then the market was affected by the performance of U.S. technology stocks. In the short term, caution should be exercised, especially during the Spring Festival [68]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the 20 - day moving average support and hold long positions in Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 30 - day moving average; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, use a bull call spread strategy [70]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Market performance: The outer - market platinum and palladium fluctuated widely. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract PT2606 rose 3.54% to 572.95 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract PD2606 rose 8.62% to 450.55 yuan per gram [70]. - Core logic: The strong U.S. dollar has a negative impact on non - ferrous and precious metals. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium has shifted from a supply - demand gap to a supply surplus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive [70]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buying on dips and paying attention to position management; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [71]. 3.4.3 Copper - Market performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2603 closed at 102590, down 2.22%, and LME copper closed at 13040 dollars per ton, down 2.76% [72]. - Core logic: The Sino - U.S. leaders' call and AI - related stock fluctuations have led to a slight decline in copper prices. The downstream replenishment has slowed down the inventory accumulation. The strategic reserve demand and supply disturbances provide long - term support for copper prices [73]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should take a long - on - dips approach, but control the position before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [74]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - Market performance: The spot freight rates of the SCFI European line and SCFIS European line showed a downward trend [108]. - Core logic: The resumption of some shipping routes is offset by geopolitical tensions. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March is expected to increase. The traditional off - season is approaching, and the freight rate is expected to decline after the Spring Festival [108]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, take profit on the 6 - 10 positive spread at high levels and then stay on the sidelines, waiting for opportunities to operate on dips [109]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Market performance: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.05% to 65.14 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.2% to 69.46 dollars per barrel [111]. - Core logic: The uncertainty of the U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiation has led to wide - range oscillations in international oil prices. The Brent main contract is expected to oscillate between 66 - 69 dollars [113]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options should all stay on the sidelines [113]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Market performance: The outer - market WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, and the asphalt futures showed a small increase. The spot prices in various regions were stable [114]. - Core logic: The geopolitical risk has increased the volatility of asphalt, which follows the crude oil price. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material cost increase and supply gap. The supply is low, and the demand is weakening [115]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect high - level oscillations and go long on BU2606 on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU - short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [116]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - Market performance: The FU03 contract closed at 2800 (+0.86%), and the LU04 contract closed at 3266 (+0.62%) [118]. - Core logic: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by high - price transactions in the Singapore spot window. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply has increased recently [119]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a strong oscillation and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 positive spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [120].

研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2602 | 1,737.8 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 97.0 | -84.15% | 1,826.0 | -3.03% | | EC2604 | 1,247.6 | 9.7 | 0.78% | 24,199.0 | -17.40% | 32,761.0 | -4.29% | | EC2606 | 1,534.0 | 0.3 | 0.02% | 3,370.0 | 7.09% | 14,222.0 | 5.68% | | EC2608 | 1,604.6 | 6.7 ...