1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the daily market data of stock index futures including IM, IF, IC, and IH, covering closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, and positions of major seats for different contracts. It also shows intraday trends and historical basis data for each type of futures [4][21][40][61]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IM Futures - **Daily Market Data**: The closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with the main contract IM2512 down 1.55% to 7284.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 233,578 lots, up 4,445 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 363,473 lots, up 534 lots [4][5]. - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 151.33 points, down 11.21 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -16.48%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0.69 points, 0.87 points, 3.4 points, and 48.67 points respectively [5][12]. - **Positions of Major Seats**: Data for major seats of IM2511, IM2512, IM2603, and IM2606 contracts are provided, showing changes in trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of different members [16][18][20]. IF Futures - **Daily Market Data**: The closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with the main contract IF2512 down 0.89% to 4589 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 118,199 lots, up 3,153 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 268,460 lots, down 1,637 lots [21][22]. - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 29.7 points, down 11.1 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -5.14%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 1.9 points, 2.75 points, 10.48 points, and 41.59 points respectively [22][31]. - **Positions of Major Seats**: Data for major seats of IF2511, IF2512, IF2603, and IF2606 contracts are provided, showing changes in trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of different members [35][37][38]. IC Futures - **Daily Market Data**: The closing prices of IC contracts decreased, with the main contract IC2512 down 1.92% to 7094.6 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 143,967 lots, up 3,761 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 252,156 lots, down 2,202 lots [40][41]. - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 116.23 points, down 22.23 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -13%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 1.72 points, 1.94 points, 5.18 points, and 60.91 points respectively [41][51]. - **Positions of Major Seats**: Data for major seats of IC2511, IC2512, IC2603, and IC2606 contracts are provided, showing changes in trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of different members [55][57][59]. IH Futures - **Daily Market Data**: The closing prices of IH contracts decreased, with the main contract IH2512 down 0.18% to 3008.2 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 50,534 lots, down 624 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 94,774 lots, down 2,205 lots [61]. - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 4.77 points, down 5.02 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -1.26%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 1.13 points, 1.98 points, 10.46 points, and 29.6 points respectively [62][72]. - **Positions of Major Seats**: Data for major seats of IH2511, IH2512, IH2603, and IH2606 contracts are provided, showing changes in trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of different members [77][79][81].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the shipping industry. 2. Core View - Mainstream shipping companies have initiated price increase announcements for the second half of November, boosting the EC futures market. The spot freight rate decline slightly exceeded market expectations, mainly due to changes in the settlement index rhythm caused by vessel rolling and delays in late October. It is expected that the spot freight rate will gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies may continue to announce price increases. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Section I. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance** - On November 4, 2025, EC2512 closed at 1909.9 points, up 3.14% from the previous day. The SCFIS European line index reported on November 4 was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% week - on - week, while the SCFI European line reported on October 31 was $1344/TEU, up 7.9% week - on - week [6][7]. - Shipping companies such as CMA, HPL, and MSC have announced price increases for the second half of November, with targets between $3000 - 3100/FEU [7]. - **Logic Analysis** - Spot freight rates are expected to gradually rise. For example, HPL plans to raise the price to $3100 in the second half of November from around $2000 in the first half. CMA announced a price increase to $3000/FEU in the second half of November and set the online price at $3500 in December [8]. - From the fundamental perspective, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports in October, November, and December is 241,100 TEU, 260,400 TEU, and 289,200 TEU respectively, with a slight increase in December [8]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral trading: Wait and see as the market has factored in the peak - season expectations in advance, and short - term fluctuations are expected while waiting for the implementation of price increases [9]. - Arbitrage trading: Wait and see [10]. II. Industry News - Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has a fleet capacity of over 7 million TEU, accounting for 21.2% of the market share [11]. - The third - quarter corrugated carton shipments in the US fell to the lowest level since 2015, intensifying concerns about the holiday sales season [11]. - China and the EU held export control dialogue consultations in Brussels to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [11]. - Diplomatic responses were made regarding the potential US tariff increase on China and the situation in the Israel - Palestine conflict [11][12]. III. Related Attachments The report includes figures such as the SCFIS European line index and SCFIS US - West line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Shanghai Shipping Exchange, and other institutions [15][17][20].

黑色板块研发报告 钢材专题报告 2025 年 11 月 4 日 粗钢产能见顶，钢价还能重回牛市吗？ 第一部分 前言概要 黑色板块研发报告 第 1 页 共 7 页 钢材专题报告 2025 年 11 月 4 日 第二部分 中国粗钢产能即将见顶 第 2 页 共 7 页 黑色板块研发报告 钢材专题报告 2025 年 11 月 4 日 图 1：247 家钢厂高炉产能利用率（%） 图 2：49 家短流程产能利用率（%） 第 3 页 共 7 页 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 1月1日 1月17日 2月3日 2月21日 3月7日 3月20日 4月2日 4月15日 4月28日 5月10日 5月23日 6月5日 6月18日 7月1日 7月14日 7月26日 8月8日 8月21日 9月4日 9月20日 10月6日 10月21日 11月5日 11月20日 12月6日 12月22日 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 12/19 12/31 12/7 11/13 11/25 11/1 10/20 9/14 9/26 10/8 9/2 8/21 8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. The bond market is not pessimistic in the medium - and short - term, but the repair rhythm may slow down. Different commodities have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and other aspects [19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index has support at the 3950 gap. The stock index will maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to go long at low levels near 3950 and reduce positions at high levels above 4000. Consider the IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage and bull spread options at low levels [19][20]. - **Treasury Futures**: The repair rhythm of treasury futures slows down, and there is a slight adjustment. It is recommended to go long on the TL contract at low levels on a short - term basis, short the 30Y - 7Y term spread and the current - next quarterly spread, and pay attention to the potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The supply remains high, and there is still inventory pressure. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the far - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the short strangle strategy for options [27]. - **Sugar**: The new - season sugar is priced at 5700 yuan/ton, and the international sugar price rebounds. It is recommended to build long positions in the short - term for Zheng sugar, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35]. - **Oils and Fats**: The sector is in the bottom - grinding stage. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels after the bearish factors are exhausted, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract corn on dips, close the long positions of the 01 - contract corn and wait for dips for the 05 and 07 - contract corn, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [40]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure continues to be reflected, and the price continues to fall. It is recommended to build a small number of short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the short strangle strategy for options [42][43]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price rebounds, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom in the short - term. It is recommended to try long positions lightly on the 01 and 05 - contract peanuts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [46]. - **Eggs**: The number of culled chickens increases, and the egg price stabilizes. It is recommended to close the previous short positions and stay on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [51]. - **Apples**: The quality of the new - season apples is poor, but the merchants' procurement is active. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The acquisition enters the peak period, and the cotton price fluctuates slightly stronger. It is recommended to expect the cotton price to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The molten iron output shrinks, and the steel price fluctuates within a range. It is recommended to maintain the range - bound trading, go long on the coil - rebar spread at low levels, and stay on the sidelines for options [63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to wait for the correction and then go long, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [66]. - **Iron Ore**: Take a bearish view. It is recommended to go short, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [68]. - **Ferroalloys**: The inventory continues to rise. It is recommended to go short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money straddle option combination [71][72]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Multiple factors are intertwined, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to trade in a band - trading manner, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [75]. - **Copper**: The manufacturing PMI in Europe and the US is lower than expected, and the copper price pulls back in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 85000 - 86000 yuan/ton and the resistance level of 90000 yuan/ton, continue to hold the inter - market cash - and - carry arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [79][81]. - **Alumina**: The supply - side production cut has not been implemented, and the price is weak. It is recommended to expect a weak and volatile trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The macro and fundamental factors resonate, and the aluminum price is strong. It is recommended to expect the aluminum price to rise in an oscillatory manner, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The seasonal peak season arrives, and the alloy price rises with the aluminum price. It is recommended to expect the alloy price to rise with the aluminum price, consider the long AD short AL arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [90]. - **Zinc**: Hold the profitable long positions. It is recommended to hold the long positions, consider the buy SHFE sell LME operation, and stay on the sidelines for options [95]. - **Lead**: Pay attention to the resumption of production of secondary lead. It is recommended to focus on the resumption process, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97].

PP 聚丙烯相关：PP2601 合约报收 6546 点，下跌-30 点或-0.46%。PP 市场价格 偏弱整理，部分下跌 10-50 元/吨。PP 期货震荡走低令场内交投信心受挫，加之部分 石化厂价下调，成本支撑趋弱，持货商出货为主，报盘偏弱调整为主，下游接盘积极 性不高，场内现货交投偏弱。 【重要资讯】 援引 PUWORLD 消息：研究人员利用腐植酸加速聚氨酯微塑料降解，解决因 控释肥料导致的污染问题。控释肥料（CRF）因养分缓慢释放、提高肥料利用率而 广泛应用，但其残留聚氨酯膜层难以降解，会以微塑料形式进入土壤并积累，造成 污染。腐植酸能提升肥料利用效率、改良土壤结构、促进作物生长，且在微塑料降 解研究中表现出调控潜力，但其与聚氨酯微塑料的相互作用及机制尚不明确。山东 农业大学的研究人员发现，腐殖酸与控释肥料联合使用，可使作物增产 12.3%– 22.4%，并提升聚氨酯微塑料降解速率 34.3%–43.9%。 【逻辑分析】 9 月，国内载重汽车连续 2 个月增产至 33.4 万辆，同比增产+36.4%，连续 8 个月 边际增产，利多塑料单边。10 月，美国制造业 PMI 下滑至 48.7%，同比上涨+3. ...

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 11 月 03 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 782.5 | 800.0 | -17.5 | I01-I05 | 22.0 | 23.5 | -1.5 | | DCE05 | 760.5 | 776.5 | -16.0 | I05-I09 | 20.0 | 21.5 | -1.5 | | DCE09 | 740.5 | 755.0 | -14.5 | I09-I01 | -42.0 | -45.0 | 3.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 797 | 798 | -1 | 868 | 60 | 84 | 105 | | 纽曼粉 | 800 | 802 | -2 | 867 | 59 | 82 | 104 | | 麦克粉 | 796 | 795 | 1 | 864 | 56 | 79 ...

生猪日报 2025 年 11 月 3 日 【生猪日报】供应压力继续体现 现货价格回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： 研究所 农产品研发报告 研究所 农产品研发报告 预计仍将以偏弱为主，在总体存栏维持高位的大背景下，预计猪价仍有一定压力。 Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/11/3 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 12.29 | 12.62 | -0.33 | 山西（-100） | 11.96 | 12.28 | -0.32 | | 湖北（0） | 11.90 | 12.34 | -0.44 | 辽 宁 | 12.17 | 12.48 | -0.31 | | 安徽（200） | 12.37 | 12.62 | -0.25 | 吉林（-30 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Meal Daily Report" dated November 3, 2025, with the theme of "Frequent changes in trade relations, meal futures continue to be strong" [1] Group 2: Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts showed varying degrees of increase. The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed, with the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowing significantly. The monthly spread of soybean meal futures fluctuated greatly, while that of rapeseed meal strengthened significantly [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The 15 - spread of soybean meal was 197 (down 11 from yesterday), the 59 - spread was - 120 (down 3), and the 91 - spread was - 77 (up 14). The 15 - spread of rapeseed meal was 111 (up 65), the 59 - spread was - 90 (unchanged), and the 91 - spread was - 21 (down 65) [3] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 01 contract was 535 (down from 633 yesterday), and the 09 contract was 479 (down from 498). The oil - meal ratio of 01 contract was 2.680 (down from 2.690) [3] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The US soybean market is mainly affected by export volume increase, but the overall supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The sowing progress of Brazilian new - crop soybeans is relatively fast, and the production is expected to remain high, which will put pressure on prices in the medium term. The old - crop soybeans in Argentina have relatively large production, and the recent pressing and export have increased significantly [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply - demand is relatively loose, with high inventory. As of October 31, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2534 million tons, the开机率 was 61.99%, the soybean inventory was 7.1079 million tons (down 5.39% from last week, up 29.06% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons (up 9.33% from last week, up 17.16% year - on - year). The demand for rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, and the supply pressure still exists [5] Group 4: Macro - analysis - The recent Sino - US negotiations have sent positive signals to the market, and the US soybean futures have risen significantly. However, the impact of macro - factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [6] Group 5: Logic Analysis - **US Soybeans**: If the production does not decline significantly, the further upward space of US soybeans is limited [7] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The price is expected to face pressure due to relatively loose supply and smooth sowing progress of new - crop soybeans [7] - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, but there is still price support due to crushing profit losses [7] - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory is relatively low, but the demand is average. The further upward space is limited, and the monthly spread strengthening space is also limited [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [9]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 11 月 03 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13600 | 5 | 184,497 | 7014 | 573,916 | -4225 | | CF05合约 | 13615 | 10 | 43,205 | 5588 | 237,026 | 4418 | | CF09合约 | 13780 | 25 | 752 | 295 | 3,917 | 59 | | CY01合约 | 19920 | 45 | 11810 | -1632 | 24171 | 745 | | CY05合约 | 0 | -19920 | 0 | -2 | 26 | 0 | | C ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Globally, the increase in production in major sugar-producing regions is being realized. Brazil's cumulative sugar production is expected to reach a historically high level, and the fundamental outlook for raw sugar is weak, with a potential short - term rebound after over - decline. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term due to factors such as lower - than - expected domestic sugar production increase and the suspension of imports of some enterprises' syrups and premixes [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: For futures contracts SR09, SR01, and SR05, the closing prices are 5,434, 5,499, and 5,433 respectively, with price increases of 12, 16, and 20, and price increase percentages of 0.22%, 0.29%, and 0.37% respectively. The trading volumes are 1,509, 173,994, and 20,199, and the changes in trading volumes are 817, 6,995, and 6,306. The open interests are 9,065, 372,791, and 97,748, with changes of - 2, 21, and 2,235 [3] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions such as Liuzhou, Dali, Wuhan, Nanning, etc. are reported. For example, the price in Liuzhou is 5,760 with no change, while the price in Dali is 5,905 with a decrease of 15 [3] - **Spread Analysis**: The SR5 - SR01 spread is - 66, the SR09 - SR5 spread is 1, and the SR09 - SR01 spread is - 65, with changes of 0, - 8, and - 4 respectively. The import profit analysis shows that for Brazilian imports, the in - quota price is 3,961 and the out - of - quota price is 5,030, with spreads of 730, 820, and 469 compared to Liuzhou, Rizhao, and the futures market respectively. For Thai imports, the in - quota price is 4,020 and the out - of - quota price is 5,107, with corresponding spreads [3] 3.2 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Important Information**: In the first half of October 2025, in the central - southern region of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume was 34.037 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.30%. The sugar production was 2.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. India's Uttar Pradesh government raised the sugarcane purchase price, which is expected to bring an additional income of about 300 billion rupees (about 24.1 billion yuan) to local sugarcane farmers. The sugar production situation in the main domestic producing areas in the 2025/26 season is relatively clear, with an expected national sugar production of 11.56 million tons, an increase of 394,000 tons compared to the previous season [5][7][8] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the increase in Brazilian sugar production is approaching reality, and the support of ethanol for sugar has weakened, so the raw sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term with a short - term rebound. Domestically, considering the start of sugar mills and the lower - than - expected increase in sugar production, as well as the suspension of some imports, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [9] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see as the international sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term and may rebound in the short - term, and the domestic sugar price may be slightly stronger in the short - term. For arbitrage and option trading, it is also recommended to wait and see [10] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the monthly inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan, the sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi and Yunnan, the spot price of Liuzhou sugar, the spot price spread between Liuzhou and Kunming, the basis of different futures contracts, and the spread between different futures contracts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [12][13][17]