Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts: CF01 closed at 13865 with a 45-point increase, CF05 at 13835 with a 50-point increase, CF09 at 13990 with a 140-point increase, CY01 at 20135 with a 100-point increase, CY05 at 20060 with a 45-point increase, and CY09 at 20180 with a 130-point increase [3]. - Spot prices: CCIndex3128B was 15272 yuan/ton with a 23-yuan decrease, Cot A was 78.75 cents/pound with a 0.70-cent increase, and other spot prices also had corresponding changes [3]. - Price differences: Cotton and棉纱 had various inter - period and cross - variety price differences, such as the 1 - 5 month cotton inter - period spread being 30 with a 5 - point decrease [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - US cotton: As of the week of July 12, 2025, the average temperature in the main US cotton - producing areas was 82.81°F, 0.12°F lower than the same period last year, and the average rainfall was 1.22 inches, 0.16 inches higher than the same period last year [6]. - Indian cotton: As of July 11, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 9.283 million hectares, 239,000 hectares lower than the same period last year. As of the week of July 13, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 133,000 tons, a 316% year - on - year increase [6][7]. Trading Logic - US cotton: It was slightly weak in the short term but had potential positive factors due to possible trade negotiations and the weather trading peak [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton: The upward space might be relatively limited considering factors such as downstream demand and potential additional sliding - scale tariff quotas [8]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton was expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile trend, and Zhengzhou cotton was expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [9]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10]. - Options: Sell put options [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The cotton fabric market was cold, with manufacturers having small - order shipments, and weavers reducing production and taking holidays. Spinning mills' cash - flow losses were not significantly improved, and downstream procurement was mainly on a need - to - buy basis [11][13]. Group 3: Options - Option data: For example, on July 16, 2025, the CF509C14000.CZC option had a closing price of 188 with a 9.2% decrease [14]. - Volatility: The 10 - day HV of cotton was 4.4970, and the implied volatilities of some options were given [14]. - Option strategy: Sell put options, and the market's bearish sentiment was alleviated [15][16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the oil market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. For the YP09 spread, partial profit - taking can be considered, and when it widens, shorting at high levels can be considered again. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [14]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2509 for soybean oil was 8042 with a rise of 30; for palm oil, it was 8722 with a rise of 14; for rapeseed oil, it was 9470 with a rise of 66. The spot basis and its changes varied by region for each oil [3]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 month - to - month spread for soybean oil was 42 with a fall of 4, for palm oil it was 18 with a rise of 2, and for rapeseed oil it was 72 with a rise of 4 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 680 with a rise of 16, the OI - Y spread was 1428 with a rise of 36, the OI - P spread was 748 with a rise of 52, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.70 with a rise of 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a negative profit of - 208 for the 8 - month ship - period, with a CNF price of 1045. The European rapeseed oil had a negative profit of - 796 for the 8 - month ship - period, with an FOB price of 1026 [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: As of the 28th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 104.9 million tons, palm oil was 56.3 million tons, and rapeseed oil was 70.6 million tons [3]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit increased by 17.95%, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and production increased by 17.06% [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 56.3 million tons, a 5.21% increase from the previous week. The import profit deficit narrowed. It is expected to fluctuate, and buying on dips can be considered [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 104.94 million tons, a 2.91% increase from the previous week. It is expected to fluctuate as it enters a phased inventory - building period [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 70.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil import profit deficit narrowed. It is expected to have large - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to ship - buying and policy changes [6][9]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, the oil market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [14]. - **Arbitrage**: For the YP09 spread, partial profit - taking can be considered, and when it widens, shorting at high levels can be considered again [14]. - **Options**: Wait and see [14]. 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various spreads and month - to - month spreads [13][16][19]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 7 月 16 日 【粕类日报】新增题材有限 盘面继续震荡 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/7/16 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 天津 | 0 1 | 3011 | - 4 | | -70 | -80 | 1 0 | | 豆粕 | 0 5 | 2700 | - 2 | 东莞 | -180 | -180 | 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2977 | - 1 | | -170 | -170 | 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -170 | -160 | -10 | | 南通 | 0 1 | 2309 | - 3 | | -163 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn planting is completed, and the price is weak. With the reduction of Sino-US tariffs, the price continues to decline, and weather factors may be a potential market driver. China has adjusted tariffs on US corn and sorghum, and the import profit of foreign corn is relatively high. The domestic corn market shows different trends in different regions, with short - term stability in the north and potential tight supply in North China. The starch market is affected by corn prices and downstream demand, with inventory increasing and limited short - term downward space for the 09 contract [3][4][5]. - In the short term, domestic 09 corn is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and there is a possibility of a rebound in North China corn due to tight supply. For trading strategies, a light - position short - term long on 09 corn can be considered, and for the spread between 09 corn and starch, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Data**: On July 16, 2025, different corn and corn starch futures contracts showed various closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the closing price of C2601 was 2293, down 2 with a decline of 0.09%, and its trading volume decreased by 15.37% to 373,438, while the open interest increased by 1.77% to 1,054,601. There are also data on basis, spreads (including corn inter - term, starch inter - term, and cross - variety spreads) [2]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Jiajisheng Chemical, and Zhucheng Xingmao are provided, along with their price changes and basis. The same goes for starch in different companies like Longfeng, COFCO, and Jiali [2]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn market is affected by planting progress, tariff policies, and potential weather speculation. In China, the northern port's flat - hatch price is stable, the Northeast corn spot is stable, the supply in North China is tight, and the wheat - corn substitution continues. The domestic breeding demand is weak, and the downstream feed enterprises have high inventory. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, but there is a possibility of a rebound in North China corn [3][4]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong has rebounded. The starch inventory has increased this week, reaching 1346,000 tons, a monthly increase of 2.83% and a year - on - year increase of 26.27%. The starch price depends on corn prices and downstream stocking. The short - term downward space for the 09 starch contract is limited [5]. Part 3: Corn Options - Option strategies are proposed, suggesting that enterprises with spot positions close out short positions on corn call options, or short - term investors can try bottom - accumulating purchases [10]. Part 4: Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of the corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spreads of corn and corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 09 contract, and the spread between corn starch and corn 09 contracts [11][13][17].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 7 月 16 日 | 第一部分 | | | | | | 数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/7/16 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 8016 | 16 | 0.20% | 11 | 37.50% | 146 | -1.35% | | PK510 | | 8232 | 40 | 0.49% | 33,463 | -38.80% | 93,333 | 1.59% | | PK601 | | 8046 | 36 | 0.45% | 1,181 | -32.17% | 8,722 | 2.12% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | | 现货 | | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of live pigs has declined. After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The supply pressure is still expected to exist in the future, and it is relatively difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4][6]. - The live pig futures have shown an obvious decline, and the market's enthusiasm for further bullish sentiment has decreased. The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The average spot price of live pigs today is 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in various regions have generally declined, with the largest decline of 0.2 yuan/kg in Jiangxi [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The previous slaughter completion was relatively good, and the recent slaughter pressure has decreased. Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the subsequent supply pressure is still expected to exist due to the relatively high inventory [4]. - **Profit Situation**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head compared with yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets is 31.60 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head compared with yesterday [4]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: All LH contracts have declined. For example, LH01 is now 13700 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from yesterday; LH09 is 14010 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from yesterday [4]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of LH7 - 9 is - 120, an increase of 130 compared with yesterday; the spread of LH9 - 1 is 310, a decrease of 175 compared with yesterday [4]. - **Market Expectation**: The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Mainly operate in a high - level shock [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a positive spread arbitrage for LH91 [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, with the domestic soybean market showing obvious inventory accumulation characteristics [4]. - Raw sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to global supply - demand expectations and potential buying support, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [10]. - After continuous increases, the upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may experience a short - term shock and decline [17]. - The CBOT corn futures are rising, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downside space, with the spot market being relatively weak in the short - term and the futures market oscillating at the bottom [23][25]. - The pig price is expected to fluctuate as the supply side remains relatively stable [29]. - Peanuts are expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock, but there is a potential for a medium - to - long - term decline due to the expected increase in planting area [33]. - Egg prices are expected to strengthen seasonally, and the September contract is expected to rise after reaching the bottom [41]. - Apples are expected to have a short - term oscillating trend due to low supply and weak demand before the new - season apples are on the market [44]. - Cotton is expected to have limited upward space in the short - term, with the market influenced by factors such as potential quota issuance and trade - tariff uncertainties [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1009.24 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.07% to $278.1 per short ton [2]. - **相关资讯**: Brazil's July soybean export forecast is 12.19 million tons, and soybean meal export forecast is 225,000 tons. The US June 2025 soybean crush was 185.709 million bushels. As of July 10, US soybean export inspection was 147,000 tons. As of July 11, the actual soybean crush of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52% [2][3]. - **逻辑分析**: The international soybean market has loose supply and demand. The US new - crop soybean export is slow, and Brazil and Argentina have high production with export pressure. The domestic soybean market has high arrivals and crush, showing inventory accumulation [4]. - **策略建议**: Close previous long positions and wait and see; enter a small - scale RM91 reverse spread; wait and see for options [6]. Sugar - **外盘情况**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.26 (1.60%) to 16.56 cents per pound [7]. - **重要咨讯**: In the second half of June 2025, Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production decreased by 12.98% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks of July decreased by 21.66% year - on - year [8][9]. - **逻辑分析**: Raw sugar is weak due to global supply - demand expectations but may be supported by buying. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar passively [10]. - **持仓建议**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; wait and see for spreads; use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12]. Oils and Fats - **外盘情况**: CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by - 0.64% to 54.36 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by 0.92% to 4186 ringgit per ton [14]. - **相关资讯**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The US June soybean crush was higher than expected, and the soybean oil inventory reached a five - month low. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts increased [15][16]. - **逻辑分析**: The upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may decline in the short - term. Palm oil is in the process of production and inventory accumulation, and domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory accumulation [17]. - **交易策略**: Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and decline in the short - term; consider partial profit - taking for YP09 spread; wait and see for options [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December main contract rising 0.2% to 419.0 cents per bushel [23]. - **重要资讯**: CBOT corn futures rose slightly, supported by short - covering and bargain - hunting. Brazil's July corn export forecast is 4.6 million tons. The US corn good - to - excellent rate is 74%, and the North Port's purchase price is stable [24]. - **逻辑分析**: US corn is oscillating at the bottom with limited downside space. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot market is relatively weak, while the futures market oscillates at the bottom [25]. - **交易策略**: The December CBOT corn is oscillating at the bottom, and consider short - term long positions for the September contract; close the long - corn and short - September - corn spread; consider a high - selling strategy for options with spot positions [26][27][28]. Pigs - **相关资讯**: Pig prices are oscillating, with stable prices in different regions. Piglet and sow prices increased slightly. The national average pork price in the wholesale market rose by 0.7% [29]. - **逻辑分析**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate as the supply side remains stable [29]. - **策略建议**: Wait and see for single - side trading; enter a LH91 positive spread; wait and see for options [30]. Peanuts - **重要资讯**: Peanut prices in different regions are reported, and peanut oil factory purchase prices are relatively stable. Peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased. Peanut meal sales are slow [32]. - **逻辑分析**: Peanut spot trading is light. New - season peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - peanut contract is expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock and a medium - to - long - term decline [33]. - **交易策略**: Consider short - selling the 10 - peanut contract at high prices and wait and see for now; wait and see for spreads; sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [34][35][36]. Eggs - **重要资讯**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas are stable. The national in - production laying - hen inventory increased in June. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas decreased, and the inventory decreased. The egg - farming profit is negative [38][39][40][41]. - **交易逻辑**: Egg prices are stable at the current level and are expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is expected to rise after the plum - rain season [41]. - **交易策略**: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [41]. Apples - **重要资讯**: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the off - season sales speed slowed down. Apple import and export volumes changed. The spot price is stable, and the storage - merchant profit increased [43][44]. - **交易逻辑**: The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the off - season, with little supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [44]. - **交易策略**: The AP10 contract is expected to oscillate, and consider a low - buying and high - selling strategy; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [48][45]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: ICE US cotton rose, with the main contract rising 0.46 (0.68%) to 68.57 cents per pound [46]. - **重要资讯**: Brazil's cotton harvest progress is 13.6%, slower than last year. US cotton growth progress is slightly lagging, but the good - to - excellent rate is high, and the production is expected to increase. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production forecast is 3.938 million tons [47][48][49]. - **交易逻辑**: Cotton commercial inventory and import volume are at low levels, but the market expects potential quota issuance. The trade - tariff issue has uncertainties. The upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be limited [50]. - **交易策略**: US cotton is expected to oscillate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short - term with limited upward space; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations due to uncertainties in the US economic situation and inflation. Copper prices are likely to face downward pressure due to changes in supply and demand and tariff policies. Alumina prices are expected to show a strong and volatile trend, with a supply shift from tight balance to structural surplus. The electrolytic aluminum market has mixed factors, with macro - economic and policy impacts, and inventory changes affecting prices. Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure, with supply and demand imbalances. Zinc prices may decline due to increased supply and weak consumption. Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels, with improved consumption and limited supply growth. Nickel prices are expected to be weak, with a weak supply - demand situation in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are under pressure due to over - supply and weak demand. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be bullish after a correction, with a balanced supply - demand situation. Polysilicon prices are expected to enter a volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [3][8][14][20][27][30][34][37][42][48][53][55]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed down 0.58% at $3323.29 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.12% at $37.686 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.54% to 98.62, the 10 - year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.488%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened, closing up 0.12% at 7.181 [2]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met market expectations, with the overall CPI annual rate rising to 2.7% and the core CPI annual rate rising to 2.9%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 45.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 53.5% [2]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data dampened market expectations of a rate cut, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to rise and precious metals to be under pressure. If the US labor market does not collapse unexpectedly, the Fed's rate - cut timing may be postponed, and precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [3]. Trading Strategy - Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 78,070 yuan per ton, up 0.18%. The LME copper closed at $9,657.5 per ton, up 0.15%. LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110,500 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 238,000 tons [5]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met expectations. There were various tariff - related news, and the import of copper ore and concentrates in June 2025 increased by 1.7% year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 6.4% year - on - year [5][6]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to rise and non - ferrous metal prices to fall. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1, and the supply situation will change, with LME inventory bottoming out [8]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [8]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 17 yuan to 3,144 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [10]. Important Information - There were policy - related news, domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [11][12][13]. Logic Analysis - Although the operating capacity remained flat, production was increasing. The supply - demand pattern is shifting from tight balance to structural surplus, but warehouse - receipt demand may disperse the pressure of spot surplus, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile [14]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE aluminum 2508 contract remained flat at 20,390 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [18]. Important Information - There were changes in inventory, basis, and warehouse receipts. US inflation data and tariff - related news were also reported, along with domestic housing construction data [18][19]. Trading Logic - Macro - economic factors suppress the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and the domestic market focuses on policy expectations. Fundamentally, inventory changes and demand factors co - exist [20]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 19,795 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions remained flat [23]. Important Information - There were changes in production, cost, and inventory [23][24][26]. Trading Logic - Supply is stable but with actual transaction difficulties, and demand is weak. Futures prices are expected to follow aluminum prices due to cost factors [27]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the futures - spot price difference is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options trading [27]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market fell 1.13% to $2,701.5 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2509 fell 0.54% to 21,985 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [29]. Important Information - A zinc smelter planned maintenance and capacity expansion, and domestic zinc inventory increased [29]. Logic Analysis - Domestic zinc supply is increasing, consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating, so prices may be under pressure [30]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [35]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead market fell 0.2% to $2,001 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2508 contract fell 0.44% to 16,935 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [32]. Important Information - Lead inventory increased [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply of recycled lead is in a loss state, and production willingness is low. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and consumption is improving [34]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options trading [34]. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel rose to $15,215 per ton, and the SHFE nickel NI2508 rose to 121,060 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [37]. Important Information - The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse started operation [37]. Logic Analysis - Concerns about US tariffs affect external demand. The supply - demand situation in the off - season is weak, and prices are expected to be weak but with cost support [37]. Trading Strategy - Prices are expected to decline. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [38]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The SS2508 contract rose to 12,720 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were reported [40]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of relevant regulations, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [40][42]. Logic Analysis - External and internal demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [42]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 2.81% to 8,785 yuan per ton, and spot prices also rose [45]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - Production is decreasing, and demand is relatively stable. The market is in a balanced state, and prices are expected to be bullish after a correction [48]. Strategy - Adopt a bullish view after a correction. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [49]. Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose 2.78% to 42,470 yuan per ton, and spot prices declined [51]. Important Information - There was news of China - EU energy cooperation [51]. Comprehensive Analysis - Market rumors are frequent, and prices are expected to enter a volatile phase [53]. Strategy - Conduct range trading. Wait and see for options trading. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [53]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract rose 140 yuan to 66,100 yuan per ton, and spot prices rose [55]. Important Information - There were policy - related news about technology export control [55]. Logic Analysis - Supply - side disturbances have not had a substantial impact on production. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [55]. Trading Strategy - Wait for short - selling opportunities. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the weakening of the near - month spread, stubborn CPI in the US, and potential sanctions on Russia, with short - term volatility and a mid - term bearish outlook [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a neutral - to - high valuation, with short - term supply - demand weakness and expected high - level fluctuations in unilateral prices and a strengthening trend in crack spreads [3][5]. - The liquefied gas market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to run weakly [5][8]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see higher prices due to strong demand and increased LNG exports, while the European market is expected to be volatile due to stable supply and weak demand [8][9]. - The fuel oil market has different situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [10][12]. - The PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PR, and other polyester - related markets are expected to fluctuate and be sorted out, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [13][15][16]. - The styrene market is expected to show an oscillating trend due to factors such as supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [23][25]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand situation, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term, while the caustic soda market has a reduced upward drive, and short - term long positions are recommended to take profits on rallies [26][28]. - The PP and PE markets have a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term [29][31]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a relatively strong performance in price, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [32][35]. - The glass market is affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, and attention should be paid to possible logical conversions [35][37]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading and selling call options [37][40]. - The urea market is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation due to factors such as supply, demand, and export policies [40][42]. - The log market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [43][46]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [46]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [48][50]. - The pulp market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point on Tuesday [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point last Thursday [54][56]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets have a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high points, and the RU2509 - NR2509 spread can be considered for intervention [57][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $66.52, down $0.46/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.69%; Brent2509 contract settled at $68.71, down $0.50/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.72%. SC main contract 2509 fell 2.6 to 509.3 yuan/barrel, and at night it fell 3.7 to 505.6 yuan/barrel. The Brent main - to - next - month spread was $0.94/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: US June CPI rebounded to 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year. There are potential sanctions on Russia, and the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 19.1 million barrels in the week ending July 11, 2025 [1][2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The near - month spread of crude oil weakened, the short - term supply - demand contradiction was slightly weakened. The US CPI in June was still stubborn, the expectation of interest rate cuts was weakened, and the uncertainty of the macro - economic outlook increased. Potential sanctions on Russia may increase market disturbances [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility is weak, and pay attention to the support around $68.2 for Brent. Gasoline and diesel crack spreads are stable, and options are on hold [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3612 points at night (- 0.14%), BU2512 closed at 3433 points at night (- 0.17%). The spot price in Shandong on July 15 was 3550 - 4070 yuan/ton, and in the East China region it was 3670 - 3800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different regions were stable, with some price adjustments due to factors such as supply and demand and weather [3][4]. - **Logical Analysis**: Oil prices fell from a high level, the asphalt crack spread increased passively, the industrial chain profit was repaired, and the valuation was neutral - to - high. The supply and demand were weak in the short term, and both were expected to increase before the peak season at the end of the third quarter [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level fluctuations, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4106 at night (- 1.3%), PG2509 closed at 4016 at night (- 1.06%). The spot prices in different regions varied [5]. - **Related News**: The market trends in different regions were different, with fluctuations and adjustments [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply decreased last week, the international ship arrivals increased, the demand in the combustion and chemical fields was weak, and the inventories at ports and factories increased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly [8]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 34.445 (- 2.85%), HH closed at 3.521 (+ 1.64%), JKM closed at 12.3 (- 2.88%) [8]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased last week, the production increased, the demand was strong, and the LNG export volume increased, so the price was expected to rise. In Europe, the supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price fell [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For HH, buy on dips; for TTF, it is expected to oscillate [9]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 22873 at night (+ 0.21%), LU09 closed at 3642 at night (- 0.14%). The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads [10]. - **Related News**: Malaysia will implement regulations on illegal ship - to - ship crude oil transfers, and the sales volume of marine fuel oil in Singapore in the first half of 2025 decreased slightly [11]. - **Logical Analysis**: The high arrival of domestic high - sulfur spot hit the domestic high - sulfur price. The high - sulfur feed demand was expected to increase, and the low - sulfur supply increased with no specific demand driver [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [13]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2509 main contract closed at 6688 (- 90/- 1.33%) yesterday and 6712 (+ 24/+ 0.36%) at night. The spot price of PX decreased [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PX was still tight, the downstream demand was lack of support in the off - season, and it was expected to oscillate following the cost side [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA509 main contract closed at 4696 (- 44/- 0.93%) yesterday and 4702 (+ 6/+ 0.13%) at night. The spot basis was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PTA was expected to increase, the downstream demand was weak, and the processing fee was compressed [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4322 (- 35/- 0.80%) yesterday and 4301 (- 21/- 0.49%) at night. The spot basis was stable [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [17]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of ethylene glycol was expected to increase, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation in August - September, which would put pressure on the price [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2508 main contract closed at 6368 (- 68/- 1.06%) during the day and 6358 (- 10/- 0.16%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [18]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [18]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - fiber price followed the decline of polyester raw materials, the processing difference continued to expand, and the production and sales were average [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided, wait and see attitude implied [19]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: The PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 50/- 0.84%) yesterday and 5874 (+ 4/+ 0.07%) at night. The spot market trading atmosphere was average [19]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was slightly reduced [19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The raw material futures fell, the bottle - chip processing fee strengthened, and the production was reduced. It was expected to oscillate and sort out following the raw material end [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract closed at 6144 (- 45/- 0.73%) during the day and 6164 (+ 20/+ 0.33%) at night. The EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (- 138/- 1.85%) during the day and 7332 (- 8/- 0.11%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene and styrene changed [23]. - **Related News**: The styrene inventory in the East China main port increased, and some styrene devices were shut down for maintenance [23][24]. - **Logical Analysis**: The pure benzene price was expected to oscillate and sort out, and the styrene price was expected to show an oscillating trend due to supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot market was slightly weak, and the caustic soda spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased [27]. - **Logical Analysis**: The PVC supply and demand were weak, the inventory increased, and there was a risk of new device production. The caustic soda price had a peak - season expectation, but the upward drive was reduced [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, take profits on rallies for short - term long positions; for PVC, be bearish on the price in the medium and short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. PP and PE - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price was slightly weak, and the PP spot price in different regions decreased [29]. - **Related News**: The PP and PE maintenance ratios increased [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: There was a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand was weak, and the price was bearish in the medium and short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bearish on the price in the medium and short term, wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton (- 27/- 2.2%), and at night it closed at 1211 yuan (- 15/- 1.22%). The spot price in different regions changed [32]. - **Related News**: The domestic soda ash factory inventory increased, and some devices had maintenance or production plans [33]. - **Logical Analysis**: The soda ash supply decreased, the demand was weak, the inventory increased, and the profit decreased. The market expected the real - estate sector to adjust [33][34]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be relatively strong, wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1071 yuan/ton (- 31/- 2.81%), and at night it closed at 1069 yuan/ton (- 13/- 1.2%). The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [35]. - **Related News**: The glass market price was stable with some increases, and the deep - processing order days decreased [35][37]. - **Logical Analysis**: The glass price was affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, the supply decreased last week, and attention should be paid to production and sales in the short term and cost and cold - repair in the medium term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to possible logical conversions, wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2374 at night (- 18/- 0.75%). The spot price in different regions varied [37][38]. - **Related News**: The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in the Northwest increased [39]. - **Logical Analysis**: The international methanol device start - up rate increased, the import recovered, the domestic supply was loose, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fell to 1731 (- 33/- 1.87%). The spot price decreased slightly [40][41]. - **Related News**: The urea daily production increased, and the new Indian tender price was announced [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: The urea supply was large, the demand was weak, the inventory was high, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options on rallies [42][43]. Log - **Market Review**: The log spot market was stable with some price decreases. The 9 - month contract price rose slightly [43][44]. - **Related News**: The import volume of logs and sawn timber in June decreased, and the real - estate development data was not good [43]. - **Logical Analysis**: The downstream demand was weak, and the price support and trading volume needed to be considered. The scale difference supported the disk price [44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread, and wait and see for options [46]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The corrugated and box - board paper market was stable with some individual adjustments [46]. - **Related News**: The price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [46]. - **Logical Analysis**: The corrugated paper market was in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply and weak demand [46

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Egg Weekly Report: Inventory Declines, Egg Prices Stabilize [1] - Industry: Egg Industry - Researcher: Liu Qiannan - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 - Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014425 Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Egg prices have stabilized after a decline, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is a peak-season contract, and prices are expected to rise after hitting bottom as the rainy season ends and food factories stock up before the Mid-Autumn Festival [16] Group 4: Content Summary by Section 4.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.58 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 2.79 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from last Friday. Egg prices were under pressure due to high temperature, high humidity, school holidays, and an increase in newly laid eggs. However, after hitting a new low for the year, the decline may be limited, and some low-price areas saw a rebound at the end of the week. The price of old hens fluctuated strongly [5] 4.2 Supply Analysis - This week, the shipping volume in the producing areas decreased slightly month-on-month. From July 4 - 11, the national main producing areas' egg chicken culling volume was 16270000, a decrease of 5% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 504 days, a decrease of 2 days from the previous week. In June, the national in-laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The monthly egg chicken chick output of sample enterprises was 40.75 million, a month-on-month decrease of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the in-laying hen inventory from July to October 2025 is estimated to be 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [9] 4.3 Cost Analysis - As of July 11, the corn price was around 2421 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 2924 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2572 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.82 yuan/jin of egg feed cost. Corn and soybean meal prices decreased slightly this week, leading to a slight decrease in egg chicken breeding costs. Egg prices stabilized after a decline, but the average weekly egg price decreased month-on-month, so the loss of egg chicken breeding continued to expand. As of July 10, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was -0.68 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week. On July 4, the expected profit of egg chicken breeding was 13.38 yuan/bird, a decrease of 0.46 yuan/jin from the previous week [12] 4.4 Demand Analysis - The sales volume in the selling areas increased first and then decreased this week, with a month-on-month decrease in the total sales volume. As of July 4, the sales volume of representative selling areas was 7606 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week. The national egg market inventory decreased slightly month-on-month. As of July 4, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.17 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous week. This week, the vegetable price index rebounded, and the pork price index changed little [15] 4.5 Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Recent egg prices have stabilized at the current level, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is a peak-season contract, and prices are expected to rise after hitting bottom. - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [16]