Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Urea Daily Report, January 12, 2026 [2] - Report type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Research area: Commodity research - Energy and Chemicals [1][8][12] Group 2: Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1783 (+4/+0.22%) [3] - Spot market: Factory prices stabilized, but order intake was weak. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1680 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1680 - 1710 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized particles 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea industry daily output on January 12 was 20.20 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.00 tons from the same period last year; the current operating rate was 85.81%, a 4.55% increase from 81.26% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logical Analysis - The factory prices in mainstream regions remained generally stable, market sentiment was low, and trading was weak. In different regions, although the situation varied, the factory prices were expected to remain firm or follow the upward trend. The daily output had returned to around 200,000 tons due to the return of some gas - fired maintenance devices. The Indian tender result was CFR 420 US dollars/ton, with a counter - offer of around 840,000 tons. The domestic - foreign price difference was still large, but there were no new quotas, so the overall impact was limited. The compound fertilizer operating rate in the Central Plains and Northeast regions increased, and some enterprises that had stopped production due to environmental protection resumed work. The progress of the off - season reserve enterprises had reached over 70%, and the subsequent purchasing intensity would gradually slow down. As the factory price rose, downstream resistance increased, and the factory order intake weakened, so the factory price was expected to decline [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Single - side: Oscillation [6] - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [6] - Options: Wait - and - see [9] Group 6: Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of urea daily output, total output, operating rates (coal - based, gas - based, and overall), port inventory, enterprise inventory, enterprise pre - orders, compound fertilizer demand, compound fertilizer operating rate, compound fertilizer factory inventory, melamine operating rate, and Northeast arrival volume from 2023 to 2026 [10][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall repair trend of December's CPI and PPI readings continued, but the structural differentiation of price indicators was not significantly improved. The core CPI's year - on - year repair momentum may have slowed, and the PPI is expected to turn positive in Q2 [6][14][18]. - The bond market was weak this week. The strong performance of the equity market at the beginning of the year suppressed the bond market. Factors such as the correction of unreasonable interest - rate cut expectations and the lower - than - expected central bank bond - buying scale led to a larger adjustment in the short - and medium - term bonds. However, the impact of the equity market on the bond market weakened marginally towards the weekend [6]. - The factors restricting the bond market's strength still exist, so a relatively cautious judgment is held for the Q1 trend. But there may be short - term trading opportunities in bond futures, and it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - This week's CPI data met expectations, with food and tobacco prices and precious metal jewelry prices being the main drivers of CPI repair. The core CPI's year - on - year repair momentum may have slowed, and the household appliance prices in the household goods and services sub - item increased strongly [14]. - The PPI data slightly exceeded expectations. The production data prices in the upstream were the main source of PPI repair, while the downstream consumer goods prices had weak repair momentum. The domestic PPI year - on - year is expected to turn positive in Q2 [18][16]. - The strong equity market at the beginning of the year suppressed the bond market, but the impact weakened marginally towards the weekend [24]. - The capital price did not fall further, and the central bank's bond - buying was lower than expected, leading to a relatively large adjustment in the short - and medium - term bonds [26]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Try to go long at low prices in the short term [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Contract Valuation - The IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were about 1.3126%, 1.4026%, 1.2506%, and 0.7725% respectively. The futures bond valuation was slightly underestimated compared to the spot bonds [36]. 3.2.2 Contract Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented in the data [41]. 3.2.3 Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume and open interest data of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are provided [44]. 3.2.4 Spot Bond Yields and Spreads - The curves of spot bond yields, term spreads, spreads between national bonds and local bonds, and spreads between 10Y national bonds and state - owned development bonds are presented [47]. 3.2.5 US Treasury Yields and Exchange Rates - Data on the US 10 - year Treasury yield, Sino - US 10 - year Treasury spread, US dollar index, and US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate are provided [50].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, while the domestic white sugar price will range - bound. It is advisable to consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is suggested [8][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,291, down 8 (-0.15%); SR01 closed at 5,316, up 6 (0.11%); SR05 closed at 5,285, down 3 (-0.06%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [3] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions varied, with prices in places like Liuzhou at 5390 yuan/ton, Kunming at 5230 yuan/ton, etc. The price in Nanning decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3] - **Basis**: The basis in different regions also showed differences, such as 105 in Liuzhou, - 55 in Kunming, etc [3] - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 31, down 9; SR09 - SR05 spread was 6, down 5; SR09 - SR01 spread was - 25, down 14 [3] - **Import Profits**: The quota - within and quota - outside prices, as well as the spreads with domestic prices and futures prices, were provided for Brazilian and Thai imports [3] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Important Information - In December, the forecasted arrival of tariff - quota - outside raw sugar was 268,600 tons. From the 25/26 sugar - making season to the end of December, Brazil had cumulatively exported 1,447,100 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 878,000 tons. The estimated import volume of sugar in December was between 400,000 - 500,000 tons, higher than last year's 390,000 tons. The total sugar import volume in 2025 was expected to be around 4.8 million tons, higher than 4.35 million tons in 2024 [5] - As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in India's Maharashtra state, 197 sugar mills had started production, 2 less than the same period last season. The crushed sugarcane was 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons compared to the same period last season, and the sugar production was 5.6297 million tons, with an average sugar - making rate of 8.89% [5] - In December, Brazil exported 385,300 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 331,000 tons. In 2025, Brazil cumulatively exported 4,767,500 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 1,747,200 tons [6] 3.2.2 Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease as the sugarcane harvest nears completion. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly production may lead to an over - expected increase, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar price and the strong performance of bulk commodities, the US sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [8] - Domestically, the high processing cost of white sugar (most sugar mills in Guangxi have a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton) and the bottom - building trend of the US sugar price on the external market (the quota - outside cost of imported Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton) support the white sugar price. But considering the peak sugar - pressing season and the expected global sugar increase in the 25/26 season, there is significant pressure on the upper oscillation platform of white sugar prices. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [8] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and the domestic white sugar price will range - bound. Consider low - buying and high - selling within the range [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Sell put options [10] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include graphs of monthly inventory, production, spot prices, price spreads, and basis of white sugar in different regions and time periods, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [11][14][15]

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Fundamental Support, Cotton Fluctuates Slightly Bullish [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is supported by fundamental factors and is expected to fluctuate slightly bullish. However, due to the recent rapid rise in cotton prices, there is a short - term risk of correction, and risk control should be noted [8][28][44] Summary by Directory Part 1: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamental contradictions in the US cotton market are not significant, and it is expected that the US cotton price will continue to fluctuate within a range. As of January 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.6675 million tons, accounting for 85.8% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 11% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 77.5%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.5%, 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year [8] - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of January 1, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 22,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 27% and a 49% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 34,900 tons, a weekly increase of 10% and an 18% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [8] - **CFTC**: As of January 2, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,977 to 18,662, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 year decreased by 2,068 to 36,195, equivalent to 820,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [8] - **Brazil**: As of December 13, 2025, the cotton planting in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 10.1% completed, a 4.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and 2.1 percentage points slower year - on - year. As of January 3, the planting was 31.2% completed, a 6.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and 0.1 percentage point faster year - on - year [8] - **India**: According to the latest report of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), as of November 30, 2025, compared with the previous month's assessment, the production increased by 80,000 tons, imports increased by 90,000 tons, exports increased by 20,000 tons, and domestic demand decreased by 90,000 tons, resulting in a 230,000 - ton increase in ending inventory [8] - **Global**: According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast in December, the changes were not significant. The global cotton production in December was 26.08 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons from the previous month. The total consumption decreased by 60,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, and the ending inventory remained relatively stable at 16.54 million tons [8] Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: The new cotton picking is basically over, and the ginning mills' processing is coming to an end, with the operating rate gradually decreasing. As of January 7, 2025, the cumulative public inspection volume was 6.650735 million tons, a 14.27% year - on - year increase. As of January 2, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2888 million tons, a 123,800 - ton (2.40%) increase from the previous week [28] - **Demand Side**: The current market sales situation is good. As of January 9, the cumulative sales volume of lint cotton was 4.093 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, 2.318 million tons more than the average of the past four years. As of the week of January 8, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 64.7%, the same as the previous week. The yarn price increased significantly this week, and the yarn sales slowed down. Spinning mills mainly processed previous orders, and the operating rate changed little [28] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The report shows the historical trends of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend [49][50] - **Mid - end Situation**: It includes the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, the yarn inventory days, and the grey fabric inventory days [53] - **Cotton Inventory**: It presents the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [55] - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It shows the basis trends of cotton in different months and the basis of US seven - major market upland cotton [58] Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The historical volatility (HV) on the previous day was 3.9092, and the volatility decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7094, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.8660. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today [42] - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [42] Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The current cotton sales progress is still fast, and the improvement of Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity in the new year support the fundamental upward trend. However, due to the recent rapid rise in cotton prices, there is a short - term risk of correction [44] - **Single - sided Strategy**: It is expected that the US cotton price will mostly fluctuate within a range in the future. The positions of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton have decreased recently, and it is recommended that long positions consider taking profits and closing positions [44] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [45] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [45]

Report Title - Apple Weekly Report: Slight Increase in Demand, Faster Apple Outbound [1] Core Viewpoint - This season's apple warehouse receipt cost is high due to low premium fruit rate, strongly supporting the apple futures price. Although the current cold - storage apple outbound volume is lower than the same period last year, the Spring Festival is postponed this year, so the peak sales season is also delayed, and the current demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the outbound volume remains normal, the later apple supply will be tight. If the apple demand maintains a normal state, the price of the May contract is likely to rise [14]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Spot Analysis - **Market Situation**: This week, the number of inquiring merchants in late - Fuji apple production areas slightly increased, with different trading atmospheres in each area. The outbound of fruit farmers' goods was concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning. Most merchants packed their self - stored goods, and the trading of fruit farmers' goods focused on low - priced products. The overall shipment volume was small, and the price was stable or slightly weak. In the sales areas, the transaction was still sluggish, with reduced arrivals and increased pressure on sales and inventory in transit warehouses [6]. - **Main Production Area Prices**: In Shandong, the cold - storage trading was cold, with limited overall transfer volume. In Shaanxi, the inventory reduction speed was slightly faster than last week but still lower than the same period last year. The prices in different regions varied, such as in Penglai, 65 - 70 general goods were 2.0 - 2.2 yuan/jin, and in Luochuan, 70 above semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods were 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin [6]. 2. Supply Analysis - **Inventory Monitoring**: As of January 8, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.13%, 4.92 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In two weeks (December 25, 2025 - January 8, 2026), the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.18 percentage points, and the inventory reduction rate was 8.48%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 52.54%, with a 1.53 - percentage - point decrease in two weeks. In Shaanxi, it was 49.18%, with a 2.56 - percentage - point decrease. In Gansu, it was 51.87%, with a 3.88 - percentage - point decrease [9]. - **Steel Union Data**: As of January 7, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main national production areas was 720.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.66 million tons from last week, and the inventory reduction speed was slightly faster than last week but still lower than the same period last year [9]. 3. Demand Analysis - **Market Conditions in Guangdong**: In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of morning arrival vehicles decreased compared with last week. The market consumption was average, with reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and there was pressure on daily digestion of arrival vehicles. The inventory in transit warehouses increased, and high - quality Gansu goods were the main ones sold [12]. - **Substitute Prices**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on December 18, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.66 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, at a high level in recent years [12]. - **Profit Situation**: During the acquisition stage of the 2025 - 2026 production season, the profit statistics of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia were suspended [12]. 4. Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: High apple warehouse receipt costs support the futures price. Although the current cold - storage apple outbound volume is lower than last year, considering the postponed Spring Festival, the demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the normal outbound volume is maintained, the later supply will be tight. Pay attention to the cold - storage apple outbound situation. If the demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [14]. - **Specific Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Hold long positions in the May contract and short the October contract on rallies [14]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the May contract and short the October contract [14]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [14]. 5. Weekly Data Tracking - **Apple Supply and Demand**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided text, only relevant data charts of apple export, planting area, and consumption are presented [17][18] - **Inventory and Outbound**: Data on national and regional cold - storage inventory and outbound volume are presented in charts, showing the trends over different weeks [20][21] - **Price Difference and Basis**: Charts show the trends of 1 - 5, 5 - 10, 10 - 1 price differences and 1 - month, 5 - month, 10 - month basis over different time periods [25][26]

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/1/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2301 | 30 | 1.30% | 118 | -94.99% | 9,197 | -25.92% | | C2605 | | 2279 | 7 | 0.31% | 206,298 | 21.06% | 604,112 | 6.18% | | C2509 | | 2297 | 8 | 0.35% | 8,976 | 16.94% | 52,720 | 1.66% | | CS2601 | | 2538 | 18 | 0.71% | 500 | 233.33% | 2,400 | 0.00% | | CS2605 | | 2596 | 18 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Peanut Daily Report [1] - Date: January 12, 2026 [1][2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [1] Group 2: Data Futures Market - PK604: Closing price 7860, down 60 (-0.76%); Volume 31,429, down 21.48%; Open interest 34,965, down 4.45% [2] - PK610: Closing price 8262, up 2 (0.02%); Volume 201, down 53.69%; Open interest 2,459, up 1.61% [2] - PK601: No valid data for closing price and change; Volume 0, down 100.00%; Open interest 1,052, down 17.62% [2] Spot Market - **Peanut**: Henan Nanyang 7400 yuan/ton; Shandong Jining 8400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; Shandong Linyi 8400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [2] - **Peanut Meal**: Rizhao 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Soybean Meal**: Rizhao 3120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2][6] - **Peanut Oil**: 14350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Soybean Oil**: Rizhao first - grade 8320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [2] Import Price - Sudanese peanuts 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Brazilian new peanuts 9200 yuan/ton; Indian 50/60 peanuts 8000 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] Spread - PK04 - PK10 spread: -402, down 62 [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - Henan peanut prices are stable, while Northeast China's are weak. Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 peanuts are 4.6 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; Liaoning Changtu 4.6 yuan/jin, stable. Henan's Baisha peanuts are 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, stable; Shandong Junan 3.5 yuan/jin, stable [4] - Peanut oil prices are stable. Mainstream peanut oil factory purchase prices range from 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton, with a theoretical cost - break price of 7780 yuan/ton. Domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil is 14300 yuan/ton, and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16500 yuan/ton, both stable [4][6] - Rizhao soybean meal prices are up. The unit protein spread between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and peanut meal is expected to remain strong in the short term. 48 - protein peanut meal is 3100 yuan/ton [6] - Overall, peanut supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. Peanut prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short term. Peanut futures will continue to fluctuate weakly [4][8] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Go long on 05 peanuts at low prices as it is in bottom - range oscillation [9] Calendar Spread - Stay on the sidelines [10] Options - Sell PK603 - P - 8200 at high prices [11] Group 5: Related Charts - Chart 1: Shandong peanut spot prices (yuan/ton) [13] - Chart 2: Peanut oil factory crushing profit (yuan/ton) [13] - Chart 3: Peanut oil prices (yuan/ton) [19] - Chart 4: Peanut spot and continuous contract basis (yuan/ton) [19] - Chart 5: Peanut 4 - 10 contract spread (yuan/ton) [21] - Chart 6: Peanut 1 - 4 contract spread (yuan/ton) [21]

研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面宽幅震荡，最终报收 2263（+18/+0.8%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1880 元/吨，北线报价 1840 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1870 元/吨，山西地区报价 1980 元/吨，河南地区报价 2070 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2140 元/吨，鲁北报价 2100 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2080 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2100 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 22100 元/吨，宁波报价 2290 元/吨，广州报价 2190 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20260103-20260109）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 867899 吨，较上周回升 26800 吨，装置产能利用率为 59.49%，较上周回升 1.84%。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 320 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，非伊开工下降，外盘整体 开 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The raw coal market shows stable coal mine开工率, with the开工率 in E'erduosi and Yulin recovering. The daily coal output in these two regions is around 4.2 million tons, and the pithead price has stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol开工率 is high and stable, with sufficient supply. The US dollar price has risen slightly, most Iranian plants are shut down due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian开工率 has decreased, and the overall overseas开工率 is at a low level. The import volume in January is expected to be around 1.2 million tons. The MTO装置开工率 has recovered, and the port inventory has been decreasing. Considering the unstable Middle East situation and strong support sentiment, methanol is expected to remain strong in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary of Chapter 1 (Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy) - **Market Analysis**: Coal mine开工率 is stable, coal price rebounds, coal - to - methanol profit is stable, and domestic supply is sufficient. Overseas, Iranian plants are mostly shut down, and non - Iranian supply decreases. The MTO装置开工率 is stable, and the port inventory is decreasing. The domestic MTO has a strong shutdown expectation, and the unstable Middle East situation supports methanol prices [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, gradually build long positions on 05 contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, pay attention to positive spreads; in the over - the - counter market, sell put options [5] Group 4: Summary of Chapter 2 (Weekly Data Tracking) - **Supply - Domestic**: As of January 8, the domestic methanol overall装置开工负荷 is 77.63%, up 0.99 percentage points from last week and 3.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average开工负荷 is 70.22%, up 1.35 percentage points from last week [6] - **Supply - International**: From January 3 - 9, 2026, the international methanol (excluding China) output is 867,899 tons, up 26,800 tons from last week, and the装置产能利用率 is 59.49%, up 1.84% from last week [6] - **Supply - Import**: From January 1 - 7, 2026, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume is 373,300 tons [6] - **Demand - MTO**: As of January 8, the average weekly产能利用率 of MTO装置 in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 66.86%, down 2.19 percentage points from last week. The national olefin装置开工率 is 89.28%, with a slight increase in the average weekly开工率 after the adjustment of multiple MTO enterprises in East China and the increase of inland enterprises' loads [6] - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether产能利用率 is 2.96%, down 17.78% month - on - month; the acetic acid产能利用率 is 76.99%, and the formaldehyde开工率 is 34.07%, all showing a decline [6] - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly order volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region (excluding long - term contracts) is 94,200 tons, up 15,700 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 20.00% [6] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory is 447,700 tons, up 25,100 tons from the previous period, and the sample enterprise order backlog is 237,500 tons, up 29,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 14.16% [6] - **Inventory - Port**: As of January 7, 2026, the total Chinese methanol port inventory is 1.5372 million tons, up 4,080 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China has increased by 57,200 tons, and that in South China has decreased by 16,400 tons [6] - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 390 yuan/ton, and that in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference is 370 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference is 110 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis is stable [6] - **Spot Price**: The price in Taicang is 2,250 yuan/ton (- 30), and the price in the northern line is 1,840 yuan/ton (-) [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market bullish factors, such as the confirmed reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast cotton sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion capacity expectations of Xinjiang textile mills. However, the cotton price has significantly corrected recently, and it's necessary to observe if it can break through the 20 - day line. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for the short - term trends of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [6][7][9] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor. The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is still divided, with clothing fabric mills cautious and home textile fabric mills having a slightly better attitude. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), the closing prices decreased, with the decline ranging from 20 to 65. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 106,794, while its open interest decreased by 31,033. For cotton yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), the closing prices mostly decreased, and trading volume and open interest also had various changes [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 135 to 15,857 yuan/ton, while the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 21,300 yuan/ton. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had corresponding changes [2] - **Price Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 85 with a 30 increase; in cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 425 with a 110 increase. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was 5515 with a 20 increase. The internal - external price spreads of cotton and cotton yarn also changed [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated US cotton production in the 2025/26 season, 9% slower than the same period last year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 89.37%, and that of Pima cotton was 88.6%. The quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year. It is expected that the inspection speed will accelerate later [4] - As of January 2, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,977 to 18,662, a 40,000 - ton decrease from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 2,068 to 36,195, equivalent to 820,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from last week [5] - On January 12, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton was 0.1726 yuan/ton·km, a 3.52% decrease from the previous day. It is expected that the freight index will show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production has been gradually confirmed. The cotton sales progress is fast, and factors such as improved Sino - US relations and the expansion capacity of Xinjiang textile mills support the upward movement of fundamentals. The upward trend of the disk is obvious, with some ginning mills reluctant to sell and downstream textile mills starting to price [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound. For Zhengzhou cotton, the positions of the recent main contracts have decreased, and the price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [9] 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor, but there is a slight improvement in downstream orders in some markets. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] - The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is divided. Clothing fabric mills are cautious, and home textile fabric mills have a slightly better attitude. Observe the post - Spring Festival market situation [9] 3.3 Options - The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11] - Yesterday, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7339, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external market cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][18][22][23]