1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. corn price is rising, and the yield per unit is expected to be further adjusted downward, but the production remains at a high level, with the U.S. corn showing a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn is declining. The spot price of corn in the northern ports of China is rising, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is relatively strong, while that in North China is weakening. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn is narrowing. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and some feed enterprises are building inventories in the Northeast. The 01 - contract corn showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the spot basis strengthened. The 01 - contract corn has limited room for rebound [4][7][8]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has increased, the spot price of corn in Shandong is weakening, and the spot price of starch in Northeast China is relatively strong. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The 01 - contract starch fluctuated strongly following corn, but the corn price in North China may still decline in December, and the spot price of corn starch is also expected to fall [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - For corn futures, the closing prices of C2601, C2605, and C2509 are 2259, 2289, and 2304 respectively, with increases of 16, 9, and 17, and increases of 0.71%, 0.39%, and 0.74% respectively. The trading volumes are 761,132, 128,716, and 8,806 respectively, with increases of 43.99%, 32.16%, and 27.07% respectively. The open interests are 905,398, 389,799, and 25,069 respectively, with changes of - 2.38%, 3.75%, and 3.02% respectively [2]. - For corn starch futures, the closing prices of CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 2562, 2618, and 2647 respectively, with increases of 16, 11, and 11, and increases of 0.62%, 0.42%, and 0.42% respectively. The trading volumes are 121,079, 6,936, and 267 respectively, with changes of 15.88%, - 48.40%, and - 29.74% respectively. The open interests are 225,949, 8,925, and 1,251 respectively, with changes of - 1.04%, 1.17%, and - 5.51% respectively [2]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - For corn, the spot prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 2035, 2130, 2354, 2298, 2290, 2400, and 2470 respectively, with changes of 10, 0, - 6, - 6, 0, 0, and 0 respectively. The basis is - 269, - 174, 50, - 6, 31, 96, and 166 respectively [2]. - For starch, the spot prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Jiajie, Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are 2680, 2700, 2800, 2890, 2820, 2880, and 2760 respectively, with changes of 0, 0, 0, 0, - 30, - 20, and - 10 respectively. The basis is 62, 82, 182, 272, 202, 262, and 142 respectively [2]. 3.1.3 Price Spreads - For corn inter - delivery spreads, C01 - C05 is - 30 with a change of 7, C05 - C09 is - 15 with a change of - 8, and C09 - C01 is 45 with a change of 1. - For starch inter - delivery spreads, CS01 - CS05 is - 56 with a change of 5, CS05 - CS09 is - 29 with a change of 0, and CS09 - CS01 is 85 with a change of - 5. - For cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 is 343 with a change of - 6, CS01 - C01 is 303 with a change of 0, and CS05 - C05 is 329 with a change of 2 [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook and Judgment - Corn: The U.S. corn price is rising, and the yield per unit is expected to be further adjusted downward, but the production remains high, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn is falling, and the FOB price at northern ports in China is rising. The spot price of corn in the Northeast is relatively strong, while that in North China is weakening. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn is narrowing. The wheat price in North China is relatively strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn is still large, making corn cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and some feed enterprises are building inventories in the Northeast. The 01 - contract corn showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the spot basis strengthened. Currently, the market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn in mid - to - late December and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][7][8]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has increased, the spot price of corn in Shandong is weakening, and the spot price of starch in Northeast China is relatively strong. This week, the inventory of corn starch decreased to 105.4 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.61%. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The 01 - contract starch fluctuated strongly following corn, but the corn price in North China may still decline in December, and the spot price of corn starch is also expected to fall [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The U.S. corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. For the 01 - contract corn, short positions can be lightly established on rallies, and for the 05 - contract corn, continue to wait [9]. - Arbitrage: Try to narrow the price spread between the 01 - contract corn and starch on rallies [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - put strategy in the short term and conduct rolling operations [10]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the 01 - contract corn, the 1 - 5 price spreads of corn and corn starch, the basis of the 01 - contract corn starch, and the price spread between the 01 - contract corn starch and corn [15][17][20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market presents a complex and diverse situation, with different sectors showing various trends. Some sectors are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are influenced by macro - economic policies, geopolitical factors, and seasonal changes. For example, in the financial derivatives market, the stock index futures are under pressure and the bond market is affected by the central bank's policies; in the agricultural products market, different products have different supply and demand situations and price trends; in the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets, factors such as production capacity, cost, and market sentiment all play important roles in determining prices. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core view: Pressure is evident, and the market will remain volatile in the short term without further positive stimuli [18][19]. - Strategy: Reduce long positions when prices rise, conduct IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buying strategy for options [20]. Bond Futures - Core view: The central bank's bond purchase scale is lower than expected, and the bond market trend in the short term may be more dominated by investor behavior [22][23]. - Strategy: Take profit on previous long positions and then wait and see [23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core view: International soybean pressure is still obvious, and domestic supply has uncertainties. It is expected to be mainly in a shock operation [26]. - Strategy: Use the strategy of selling a wide - straddle option [26]. Sugar - Core view: International sugar prices are bottoming out, and domestic prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [30][31]. - Strategy: Consider building long positions at low levels in the short term, and sell put options at low levels [31]. Oilseeds and Oils - Core view: The shock market continues, with palm oil inventory expected to decrease gradually but still at a relatively high level, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil showing different trends [35]. - Strategy: Adopt the low - buying and high - selling strategy in the short term [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Core view: The spot is strong, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The price of American corn is expected to be strong in the short term, and the price of domestic corn is also strong [38]. - Strategy: Go short on 01 corn at high levels, wait for the callback of 05 and 07 corn, and narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch [38]. Live Pigs - Core view: The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to decline [42]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy and sell a wide - straddle option [43]. Peanuts - Core view: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The new peanut quality is lower than last year, and the supply of oil peanuts is loose [45]. - Strategy: Go short on 01 peanuts at high levels, wait and see for 05 peanuts, conduct a 15 - contract reverse spread, and sell pk603 - C - 8200 option [46]. Eggs - Core view: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The short - term destocking speed is expected to be slow, and the near - month contract is expected to oscillate within a range [49]. - Strategy: Consider building long positions in the far - month contract at low levels [50]. Apples - Core view: The inventory is low, and the fundamentals are strong. The apple production has decreased this year, and the effective inventory is expected to be low [54]. - Strategy: Exit and wait and see due to the high price of the 1 - month contract and the approaching delivery risk [55]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core view: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the cotton price is mainly oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, but the increase may be less than expected, and the demand is in the off - season [58]. - Strategy: The US cotton is expected to oscillate within a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [58]. Black Metals Coking Coal and Coke - Core view: They are operating at the bottom and oscillating. The previous decline has priced in some negative factors, and there is a demand for winter storage in the later stage [61]. - Strategy: Try to go long on the far - month contract at low levels [61]. Iron Ore - Core view: It should be treated with a short - selling mindset at high levels. The supply is loose in the fourth quarter, and the demand for domestic steel is declining [64]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high levels [65]. Steel - Core view: The steel price is oscillating within a range, and the cost provides support. The black sector is affected by the contract change, and the supply - demand relationship and cost factors jointly affect the price [66]. - Strategy: Maintain an oscillating strategy, conduct the spread trading of hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio, and wait and see for options [67]. Ferroalloys - Core view: The cost drives a short - term rebound, but the demand suppresses the rebound height. The supply of silicon iron and manganese silicon is decreasing, and the cost is rising, but the demand recovery is difficult to last [68][69]. - Strategy: The short - term rebound is driven by cost, and sell a virtual - value straddle option combination [69]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Core view: Trump's hint about the Fed chairperson boosts market sentiment, and silver is leading the rise. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts in December further supports the precious metals [72]. - Strategy: Hold long positions in gold based on the 5 - day moving average, and consider entering the market for silver cautiously at low levels based on the 5 - day moving average. Buy virtual - value call options [72][73]. Platinum and Palladium - Core view: Driven by the macro - economy, they are operating strongly. The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts is strong, but pay attention to the callback risk [75]. - Strategy: Go long on platinum at low levels, be cautious about the callback risk caused by the spread between domestic and foreign markets, conduct long - platinum and short - palladium spread trading, and buy virtual - value call options [75]. Copper - Core view: The overall center of gravity is moving up. The supply of copper ore is still tight in 2026, and the market expects the US to continue to import copper [78]. - Strategy: Take partial profit on long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton and then buy back on the callback [79]. Alumina - Core view: There is no substantial production reduction, and the price is running weakly. The spot trading is scarce, and it is difficult to promote substantial production reduction [82]. - Strategy: The price is running weakly, and wait and see for spread trading and options [83]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Core view: The overseas market sentiment is volatile, but the fundamentals provide obvious support. The supply is in a deficit, and the demand has new growth points [86]. - Strategy: The price is oscillating strongly, and consider going long on the callback in the medium term [86]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core view: It is oscillating strongly with the aluminum price. The macro - environment improves, but the fundamentals are affected by raw material shortages and uneven demand [91]. - Strategy: Oscillate at a high level with the aluminum price, and wait and see for spread trading and options [91]. Zinc - Core view: It is oscillating in a wide range. The domestic refined zinc production is expected to decrease in December, and the consumption is entering the off - season [93][94]. - Strategy: Settle the previous profitable long positions and wait and see [94]. Lead - Core view: It is oscillating within a range. The cost of secondary lead smelting has increased, and the inventory has decreased [96][97]. - Strategy: Try to go long lightly at low levels and be vigilant about macro - factors [97]. Nickel - Core view: The supply will increase and the demand will decrease in December, so maintain a short - selling position. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the supply is expected to recover [98]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy and sell virtual - value call options [99]. Stainless Steel - Core view: The supply and demand are both weak, waiting for macro - economic stimuli [100]. - Strategy: No specific strategy is provided in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views The report provides daily observations on the plastic L and PP markets, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. Market conditions show fluctuations in contract prices and spot market prices for both L and PP. Important news covers various corporate developments, such as production expansions, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships. Logical analyses consider multiple factors like domestic and international economic indicators, production and inventory data, and their impacts on the polyolefin market. Trading strategies include suggestions on holding, buying, or selling L and PP contracts, as well as options for arbitrage and options trading [1][2][5]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Contract prices fluctuated, with some days showing increases and others decreases. LLDPE market prices also varied, with fluctuations in different regions and ranges from 10 - 110 yuan/ton. Market sentiment was often affected by factors such as futures trends, factory price adjustments, and downstream demand. For example, on 25 - 12 - 03, L2601 contract closed at 6817 points, down 14 points or - 0.20%, and LLDPE market prices partially declined [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Contract prices also had ups and downs. PP market prices showed narrow - range fluctuations, with some days having slight increases or decreases. The market was influenced by factors like futures performance, factory price changes, and downstream procurement behavior. For instance, on 25 - 12 - 03, PP2601 contract closed at 6398 points, down 12 points or - 0.19%, and the domestic PP market prices had a narrow - range fluctuation [1]. Important News - **Corporate Developments**: Many companies announced significant events, such as齐翔腾达's plan to extend its industrial chain in the MMA and PMMA fields,科思创's acquisition by XRG, and万华绿能's establishment in the energy sector. These events could potentially impact the supply and demand of related products in the market [1][21][40]. - **Industry - wide Information**: Information about the global and domestic chemical industries was also reported, including the performance of the基础化工板块, the development of the global特种建筑化学品 market, and the status of China's chemical industry in terms of production and technology [37][18][60]. Logical Analysis - **Economic Indicators**: Various economic indicators were considered, such as domestic automobile sales, manufacturing PMI, global stock market value, and currency - related indices. These indicators had different impacts on the polyolefin market, either positive or negative. For example, a decline in domestic automobile sales index was negative for polyolefin prices [2]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: Data on PE and PP production capacity utilization, registered warehouse receipts, and inventory levels were analyzed. Increases or decreases in production capacity utilization and inventory changes could affect market supply and demand relationships. For instance, an increase in PE production capacity utilization might lead to an increase in supply [10]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggestions included holding long or short positions in L and PP contracts, with specific stop - loss points recommended. For example, on some days, it was recommended to hold long positions in L主力 01 contract and set stop - loss at a certain point [2]. - **Arbitrage**: There were also suggestions for arbitrage trading, such as holding positions in specific contract combinations and setting stop - loss levels [2]. - **Options Trading**: In most cases, the report recommended a wait - and - see approach for options trading [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily sugar report dated December 2, 2025, prepared by the Agricultural Products Research Institute of Galaxy Futures [2][3] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09 closed at 5,328, down 17 (-0.32%), with a trading volume of 6,072 (up 4,346) and an open interest of 21,363 (up 1,386) - SR01 closed at 5,382, down 23 (-0.43%), with a trading volume of 163,973 (up 30,236) and an open interest of 338,486 (down 12,087) - SR05 closed at 5,316, down 17 (-0.32%), with a trading volume of 58,088 (up 25,109) and an open interest of 221,789 (up 6,405) [3] Spot Market - The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou was 5,565, down 20; in Kunming, 5,415, down 10; in Wuhan, 5,850, unchanged; in Nanning, 5,510, down 20; in Rizhao, 5,750, unchanged; and in Xi'an, 6,060, down 20 [3] Monthly Spread - The SR05 - SR01 spread was -66, up 6; the SR09 - SR05 spread was 12, unchanged; and the SR09 - SR01 spread was -54, up 6 [3] Import Profit - For Brazilian imports, the ICE主力 was 14.74, the quota - within price was 4,021, the out - of - quota price was 5,107, with a spread of 458 against Liuzhou, 643 against Rizhao, and 275 against the futures market - For Thai imports, the ICE主力 was 14.74, the quota - within price was 4,067, the out - of - quota price was 5,168, with a spread of 397 against Liuzhou, 582 against Rizhao, and 214 against the futures market [3] Group 3: Important Information Brazil - In the first half of November 2025, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, up 235,200 tons (14.34%) year - on - year; sugar production was 983,000 tons, up 79,000 tons (8.69%) year - on - year - From the start of the 2025/26 season to the first half of November, the cumulative crushing volume was 576.253 million tons, down 7.341 million tons (-1.26%) year - on - year; cumulative sugar production was 39.179 million tons, up 800,000 tons (2.09%) year - on - year [5] India - As of November 30, 2025, in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in India was 48.6 million tons, up 15.2 million tons (45.5%) year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, up 1.375 million tons (49.81%) year - on - year [6][8] China (Guangxi) - On November 30, 2025, six sugar mills in Guangxi started crushing. In Chongzuo, the sugarcane planting area in 2025 was 4.1 million mu, and the estimated sugarcane crushing volume in the new season will be 18.27 million tons, up 960,000 tons from the previous season [8] Group 4: Market Analysis International Market - Brazilian sugarcane is entering the harvest stage, and the sugar - making ratio has decreased. The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and international sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out, with short - term prices expected to be slightly stronger [9] Domestic Market - Domestic sugar mills are starting to crush, and the supply pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder and high production costs, domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Consider short - term long positions at low prices as the supply pressure from Brazil is easing, and domestic sugar prices have limited downside due to high production costs [10] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11] - **Options**: Sell put options at low prices [11] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes charts on Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly sugar inventories, cumulative sales - to - production ratios, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, sugar basis for different contract months, and price spreads between different sugar futures contracts [12][13][16]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month contracts in April and May, long positions can be considered to be established at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Information - **Price and Market Conditions**: The average price in the main producing areas today is 3 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.22 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged. The national mainstream prices are mostly stable, with egg prices in major Beijing markets remaining stable. Egg prices in Northeast China, Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Anhui are generally stable, with local price fluctuations. Egg prices continue to fluctuate and consolidate, and the sales are normal [4]. - **In - production Laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises in November was about 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated in - production laying hen inventories in December 2025, January, February, and March 2026 are approximately 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively [5]. - **Laying Hen Culling**: In the week of November 27th, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 21.97 million, an increase of 8.7% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in that week was 489 days, a decrease of 3 days from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of November 21st, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7472 tons, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous week [6]. - **Profit Situation**: As of November 13th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.15 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week. On November 6th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 6.1 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.19 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the week of November 21st, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [6]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Today, the national culled chicken price has decreased, with the average price in the main producing areas at 3.8 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [7]. 3.2 Trading Logic The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month contracts in April and May, long positions can be considered to be established at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: It is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. Long positions can be considered to be established in far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may experience a short - term pull - back due to concerns about liquidity tightening caused by Japan's potential interest rate hike, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Alumina prices are expected to be under continuous pressure. Aluminum prices are likely to be strong in the medium - term. Zinc prices may be affected by macro factors, and lead prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Nickel prices have limited upside potential due to weak demand. Stainless steel prices are recommended for short - side allocation. Tin prices will maintain high - level volatility. Industrial silicon prices have limited downside space in the short - term. Polysilicon prices are recommended to hold short positions. Lithium carbonate prices may face callback pressure in the medium - term [3][10][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract 2601 of copper futures closed at 88,920 yuan/ton, up 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 1,209 lots to 587,000 lots. The spot copper price declined, and the supply in the market was tight. The Shanghai spot premium rose, while the North China consumption was weak, and the spot premium and discount weakened [1] - **Important Information**: The Bank of Japan governor strongly hinted at a December interest rate hike. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI index was 48.2, lower than expected. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. The CSPT group plans to reduce the copper concentrate production capacity load by more than 10% in 2026 [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Concerns about global liquidity tightening were triggered by the Bank of Japan's hawkish remarks. The US ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. The copper supply in 2026 remains tight, and the CSPT group plans to cut production. The Comex copper inventory is increasing, and the LME's B - structure is expanding. The copper price may pull back in the short - term but will rise in the long - term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider partially taking profits on long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton and rebuying after the correction. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [4][5][6] Alumina - **Related Information**: An electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan purchased 0.2 million tons of spot alumina on December 1. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi are under maintenance. Four alumina new - construction projects in Guangxi are in different progress stages [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: After the alumina price decline, there was maintenance in the northern market, but it did not affect the monthly output. Near the end - of - year long - term contract negotiation period, the alumina price is expected to be under pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the alumina price will oscillate weakly. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [11][12][13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Related Information**: The Bank of Japan governor's statement intensified market speculation about a December policy shift. The total inventory of Chinese aluminum ingot spot was 591,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. A 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia was put into production [15] - **Trading Logic**: The Fed's dovish remarks and US economic data increased the market's attention to non - interest - bearing assets. Aluminum has a supply gap globally, and its fundamentals are supported. In the short - term, new projects are put into production as scheduled, and domestic aluminum consumption is resilient [16] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the aluminum price will be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips in the medium - term. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Related Information**: The Bank of Japan governor signaled a possible interest rate hike. In October 2025, China's imports and exports of unforged aluminum alloy and waste aluminum had certain volumes, and the warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy increased [18][21][22] - **Trading Logic**: The market's concern about the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut in December was alleviated, but there are concerns about Japan's interest rate hike. The waste aluminum resources are in short supply, and the demand is differentiated [23] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it will oscillate strongly along with the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [24] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2601 rose 1% to 22,745 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 4,053 lots. In the spot market, the downstream was hesitant to buy due to high prices, but the trading among traders was active [26] - **Related Information**: As of December 1, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots decreased. A zinc - lead project in Algeria is expected to start production as planned [27] - **Logic Analysis**: In December, domestic northern mines will enter seasonal shutdown, and the refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The zinc concentrate import is in a loss state. The zinc price may be affected by macro factors [28] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, continue to hold the remaining profitable long positions and be vigilant against macro factors. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [32] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2601 rose 0.73% to 17,210 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index increased by 2,060 lots. In the spot market, the lead price increased slightly, and the downstream maintained rigid demand [34] - **Related Information**: The new national standard for electric bicycles was implemented on December 1. The procurement sentiment of downstream lead - acid battery factories was average, and the social inventory of lead ingots decreased [35] - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of recycled lead smelting increased, and the smelters were reluctant to sell. The production of primary lead was affected by maintenance, and the inventory decreased. The lead price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term [36] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the Shanghai lead price may fluctuate strongly in the range. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract NI2601 of Shanghai nickel rose 570 to 118,050 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 1,877 lots. The spot premiums of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed [39] - **Important Information**: Indonesian companies support the cooperation between Tsingshan and UNIDO. GreenMei's nickel project in Indonesia is operating normally. In November 2025, the domestic ternary material production decreased slightly, and the production is expected to decline further in December [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the supply is still tilted towards nickel sulfate. The supply - demand is loose, and the price has limited upside potential [42] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy was mentioned in the text Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS201 of stainless steel rose 70 to 12,465 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 5,518 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [44] - **Important Information**: POSCO maintained the stainless steel price in December. A stainless steel project in Jieyang was in the environmental impact assessment stage. Indonesia's nickel product exports to China accounted for a large proportion [45] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand in December is not optimistic, and the domestic crude steel production plan decreased significantly. The short - term price rebound lacks a solid foundation, and the price is still restricted by inventory [46] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a short - side allocation. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [46] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2601 closed at 306,980 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton or 0.24%. The spot price of tin decreased, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [52] - **Related Information**: The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. In October 2025, China's tin ore imports increased month - on - month [52][53] - **Logic Analysis**: False news once pushed up the tin price. The domestic tin concentrate imports increased in October, but the processing fee remained low. The production decreased slightly, and the demand was in the off - season [54] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it will maintain high - level volatility after a short - term pull - back. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [55][56] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The environmental protection improvement project of Luxi Chemical's silicone device passed the acceptance monitoring [57] - **Logic Analysis**: In December, the production in Yunnan and Sichuan may decrease, while large enterprises in the northwest will increase production. The demand from the silicone and polysilicon industries has certain changes, and the price has limited downside space in the short - term [58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell on rallies in the short - term. If the inventory accumulates significantly, the price may decline further [58] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: On December 1, the clearing results of Liaoning Power Grid's mechanism electricity price bidding were announced [60] - **Logic Analysis**: The silicon wafer and battery market are under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading. For arbitrage, conduct a long - short spread operation between Si2601 and Si2602. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [62] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate decreased by 700 to 96,560 yuan/ton, and the position and warehouse receipts increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [66] - **Important Information**: The lithium battery recycling industry has improved. Tianhua New Energy plans to increase lithium salt production capacity. In November 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased, and it is expected to continue to reduce inventory in December [67] - **Logic Analysis**: There are differences in the demand side's production plan in December. The supply is expected to increase, and the price may face callback pressure in the medium - term [68] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy after a sufficient long - term pull - back. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2605 contract [69][70]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil market lacks clear drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long - at - low and high - throw - low - suck range operations. Do not rush to go long on palm oil [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8288 with no change. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8558, 8578, and 8448 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 290 (-10), 270 (0), and 160 (-10) [2]. - For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 8720, up 68. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8670, 8750, and 8830 respectively. Basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -50 (0), 30 (-50), and 110 (0) [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9745, down 25. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10025, 10295, etc. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 280 (-20), etc., and 550 (0) [2]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was 192, down 10. For palm oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was -22, up 24. For rapeseed oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was 264, down 22 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - In the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was -432, down 68; the OI - Y spread was 1457, down 25; the OI - P spread was 1025, down 93; the oil - meal ratio was 2.72, down 0.01 [2]. - **Import Profits**: - The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia had a disk profit of -153, with a CNF price of 1045 for the 1 - month ship - period. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was -925, with an FOB price of 1080 for the 1 - month ship - period [2]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: - In the 48th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 117.9 million tons (last week: 118.0 million tons, same period last year: 98.2 million tons); palm oil inventory was 65.4 million tons (last week: 66.7 million tons, same period last year: 51.7 million tons); rapeseed oil inventory was 36.8 million tons (last week: 38.5 million tons, same period last year: 45.0 million tons) [2]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From January to October 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel production was 11.613 billion liters, consumption was 11.947 billion liters, and exports were zero [4]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Palm Oil**: As of November 28, 2025 (the 48th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons, a 2.04% decrease from last week. It is currently at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to around -200. The basis is stable with a downward trend. There is no clear short - term driver, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2008 million tons, with an operating rate of 60.54%, a decrease from the previous week. As of November 28, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 117.88 million tons, a 0.09% decrease from last week. It is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the inventory inflection point has been reached. The domestic demand is average, and the inventory may slightly decrease. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and one can consider lightly going long on dips [4][5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal main oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory was exhausted. As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 36.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from the previous week, still at a high level in the same period of history but continuously de - stocking. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around -1000. The market has a sentiment of holding back sales. It is expected that the coastal de - stocking trend will continue. One can consider high - throw - low - suck operations [5]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Wait and see or conduct short - term long - at - low and high - throw - low - suck range operations. Do not rush to go long on palm oil [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Wait and see [9]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil; the 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil; the 01 spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, etc. [12][14]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 2 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/12/2 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 8044 | -4 | -0.05% | 30,412 | 67.54% | 24,949 | 3.30% | | PK510 | 8226 | -12 | -0.15% | 85 | 30.77% | 722 | 6.96% | | PK601 | 8108 | -44 | -0.54% | 80,559 | -3.35% | 108,135 | -12.42% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7400 | 800 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side still has an impact, and the futures market has staged a rebound [1]. - The overall situation of the international soybean market remains relatively stable, and price changes are expected to be limited. In the medium to long - term, there is still price pressure on domestic soybean meal. Rapeseed meal is expected to face significant supply - side pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 3045, 2848, and 2957 respectively, with price increases of 6, 13, and 10. For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2423, 2413, and 2479 respectively, with price increases of 0, 10, and 11. The spot basis and price differences of various varieties and regions are also presented [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 15 - spread, 59 - spread, and 91 - spread of soybean meal are 197, - 109, and - 88 respectively, with changes of - 7, 3, and 4. The 15 - spread, 59 - spread, and 91 - spread of rapeseed meal are 10, - 66, and 56 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 1, and 11 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The current spreads of soybean - rapeseed 01 and 09 are 622 and 478 respectively, and the oil - meal ratio of 01 is 2.722 [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report is generally bullish, but the market has already fully reflected the positive factors. The U.S. soybean balance sheet can support the price, and future prices will be more affected by changes in soybean exports and crushing. South American supply - side impacts are increasing, with Brazil's new crop sowing progressing rapidly, and most institutions expect a bumper harvest. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand. The oil refinery's operating rate continues to increase, with sufficient market supply and increasing提货量. As of November 28, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 2.2008 million tons, the operating rate was 60.54%, the soybean inventory was 7.3396 million tons, an increase of 189,700 tons (2.65%) from the previous week and 2.3661 million tons (47.57%) compared to the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.2032 million tons, an increase of 51,700 tons (4.49%) from the previous week and 368,700 tons (44.18%) compared to the same period last year. The demand for rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, the refinery's operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply remains low, and the supply pressure still exists [5]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **U.S. Soybeans**: There are limited bullish factors for U.S. soybeans recently, and the market is mainly in a volatile state. If exports do not improve significantly in the future, it is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state [7]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the market, and due to the tightening of the South American market, price support is still relatively strong [7]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The current domestic soybean meal market has relatively loose supply and demand, which exerts pressure on the domestic soybean meal futures market. In the medium to long - term, price pressure still exists [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Affected by rumors about Australian rapeseed, the rapeseed meal futures market has declined. The overall market demand is average, and it is expected that the supply - side pressure will still be significant [7]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Continue to make small - scale long positions [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - **Options**: Implement a strategy of selling wide - straddles [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Research Report on Agricultural Products - Daily Report on Live Pigs" [1] - Date: December 2, 2025 [1][3] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs continues to increase, and the spot price has declined. The overall supply in the pork market remains sufficient, and the subsequent spot price is expected to be weak, with short - term phased support [3][4]. - The futures price of live pigs shows a slight shock trend, and the market is generally stable. In the short - term, the futures price may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure on the price is obvious, and the rebound space of the futures market is limited [4]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Price - Today, the average spot price of live pigs remained unchanged at 11.36 yuan/kg compared to yesterday. Most regions' prices declined, with only Hunan and Guangdong seeing price increases of 0.03 yuan/kg and 0.2 yuan/kg respectively [3]. Futures Price - Futures contracts showed mixed trends. For example, LH01 decreased by 40 yuan to 11455 yuan, while LH03 increased by 50 yuan to 11255 yuan [3]. Breeding - related Prices - The price of piglets remained unchanged at 209 yuan this week compared to last week, and the price of sows decreased by 1 yuan to 1545 yuan [3]. Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising decreased by 12.09 yuan to - 147.99 yuan/head, and the profit for purchasing piglets decreased by 14.19 yuan to - 248.82 yuan/head [3]. Slaughter Data - The slaughter volume increased by 943 heads to 176225 heads [3]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different futures contracts and different pig sizes changed slightly. For example, the LH7 - 9 spread increased by 25 yuan to - 895 yuan, and the spread between large pigs and standard pigs increased by 0.02 yuan to 0.43 yuan [3]. Group 5: Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5] - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]