1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report" and dated December 4, 2025 [1][2] 2. Overall Market Performance Summary IM Contracts - The main IM contract rose 0.33% to close at 7,213.4 points. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 172,057 lots, down 5,429 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 357,216 lots, down 13,768 lots [4][5] IF Contracts - The main IF contract rose 0.32% to close at 4,530.6 points. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 92,574 lots, down 5,184 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 261,904 lots, down 3,942 lots [24][25] IC Contracts - The main IC contract rose 0.55% to close at 6,983.2 points. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 99,796 lots, down 2,272 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 244,189 lots, down 8,576 lots [43][44] IH Contracts - The main IH contract rose 0.34% to close at 2,968.2 points. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 39,273 lots, down 44 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 87,594 lots, down 3,020 lots [59] 3. Specific Contract Data IM Contracts | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 7,248.66 | 0.01% | 19,484 | -9% | 3,113 billion | -7% | - | - | | IM2512 | 7,213.40 | 0.39% | 116,454 | -2% | 1,674 billion | -2% | 181,088 | -11,986 | | IM2601 | 7,137.20 | 0.33% | 7,618 | 5% | 108 billion | 5% | 17,229 | 1,137 | | IM2603 | 6,987.80 | 0.38% | 35,706 | -4% | 497 billion | -4% | 102,333 | -1,707 | | IM2606 | 6,748.20 | 0.41% | 12,279 | -15% | 165 billion | -15% | 56,566 | -1,212 | [4] IF Contracts | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 300 | 4,546.57 | 0.34% | 14,720 | -13% | 3,488 billion | -7% | - | - | | IF2512 | 4,530.60 | 0.38% | 63,708 | -6% | 865 billion | -6% | 136,475 | -5,723 | | IF2601 | 4,512.20 | 0.32% | 3,708 | 0% | 5 billion | 0% | 8,471 | 505 | | IF2603 | 4,492.20 | 0.34% | 20,155 | -5% | 271 billion | -5% | 90,771 | 851 | | IF2606 | 4,441.60 | 0.27% | 5,003 | 0% | 67 billion | 0% | 26,187 | 425 | [24] IC Contracts | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 7,012.81 | 0.24% | 14,104 | -11% | 2,399 billion | -5% | - | - | | IC2512 | 6,983.20 | 0.61% | 64,721 | -4% | 901 billion | -4% | 123,278 | -10,513 | | IC2601 | 6,926.20 | 0.55% | 4,034 | 7% | 56 billion | 7% | 11,229 | 789 | | IC2603 | 6,812.20 | 0.59% | 23,747 | 0% | 323 billion | 0% | 76,774 | 1,096 | | IC2606 | 6,605.00 | 0.59% | 7,294 | 0% | 96 billion | 0% | 32,908 | 52 | [43] IH Contracts | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,974.34 | 0.38% | 3,628 | -6% | 886 billion | 4% | - | - | | IH2512 | 2,968.20 | 0.44% | 27,688 | 0% | 246 billion | 0% | 53,262 | -2,692 | | IH2601 | 2,959.80 | 0.34% | 1,268 | 25% | 11 billion | 25% | 2,694 | 228 | | IH2603 | 2,958.60 | 0.37% | 8,640 | 3% | 77 billion | 3% | 23,841 | -354 | | IH2606 | 2,943.80 | 0.36% | 1,677 | -29% | 15 billion | -29% | 7,797 | -202 | [59] 4. Basis and Annualized Basis Rate IM Contracts - The main IM contract was at a discount of 35.26 points, up 17.61 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -11.15% [5] IF Contracts - The main IF contract was at a discount of 15.97 points, down 3.12 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -8.04% [25] IC Contracts - The main IC contract was at a discount of 29.61 points, up 16.35 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -9.67% [44] IH Contracts - The main IH contract was at a discount of 6.14 points, down 1.46 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -4.72% [60] 5. Main Seats' Data IM2512 - For trading volume, the top five seats were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 14,784 lots, up 321 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 11,474 lots, down 625 lots; Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 5,779 lots, down 200 lots; Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,280 lots, down 59 lots; and Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,042 lots, up 104 lots [19] - For long positions, the top five seats were Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 15,520 lots, down 637 lots; CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 10,314 lots, down 492 lots; Yide Futures (on behalf of clients) with 5,060 lots, up 9 lots; Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,679 lots, down 376 lots; and Guotou Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,084 lots, up 108 lots [19] - For short positions, the top five seats were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 20,445 lots, up 192 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 15,590 lots, down 735 lots; Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients) with 5,813 lots, down 103 lots; Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,184 lots, down 164 lots; and Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,118 lots, down 603 lots [19] Other Contracts - Similar data is provided for other contracts such as IF, IC, and IH in relevant sections of the report [38][54][76]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - MPOB's December palm oil supply - demand data and USDA's monthly report are neutral to bullish, and the oil market may experience a weak rebound but will likely remain volatile in the short term [4][19]. - Due to low inventories in Malaysia, Indonesia, and China, as well as import profit inversion in China, palm oil may be supported; domestic soybean oil inventories are neutral and may be prone to decline; domestic rapeseed oil supply remains abundant [4][11][14][17]. Summary by Directory International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil - In December, Malaysian palm oil stocks decreased to 1709000 tons, a 6.91% month - on - month reduction. Production dropped 8.3% to 1487000 tons, exports declined about 10% to 1340000 tons, and consumption increased significantly to 310000 tons. The overall report impact was neutral [7]. - ITS predicted that Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 10 days of January decreased 21.4% month - on - month. Future rainfall in the producing areas is normal, and short - term supply tightness may continue, with stocks likely to keep decreasing [7]. - Indonesia's B40 will be fully implemented in February, with a transition period to consume B35 inventory and adjust equipment. Restrictions on POME exports may increase CPO usage [7]. International Market - US Soybeans - USDA lowered the new - crop soybean yield per acre in the US to 50.7 bushels, with production dropping to 4.366 billion bushels. The inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased from 10.81% to 8.74%, tightening supply expectations. South American soybean production is still expected to be high [8]. - The US proposed 45Z, which may affect UCO imports [8]. Domestic Palm Oil - As of January 3, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 501700 tons, a 5.05% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively low level historically. The import profit inversion has widened, and the basis is stable [11]. Domestic Soybean Oil - As of January 3, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 956500 tons, a 1.01% decrease from the previous week. The basis has declined slightly. The oil mill's soybean crushing volume and开机率 decreased. Spot market trading has become lighter, and inventory is likely to decline [14]. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Last week, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 122500 tons, with a开机率 of 32.65%. As of January 3, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory was 484000 tons, an increase of 13000 tons from the previous week. Supply is abundant, the basis is stable at a low level, and trading is light [17]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: The oil market is expected to remain volatile with a possible weak rebound. Control risks [21]. - Arbitrage strategy: Consider going long on P3 - 5 and P5 - 9 spreads at low levels [21]. - Option strategy: Stay on the sidelines [21].

金融工程研发报告 国债期货策略报告 2025 年 12 月 4 日 基于席位行为的国债期货交易风格指数构建与应用 第一部分 前言概要 | | 年化收益率 | 年化波动率 | 最大回撤 | 夏普率 | 卡玛比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (% | (% | (%) | | | | 基准 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | | 轮动策略 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 2.6 | | 择时策略 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2.6 | | | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 1 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | 第二部分 | 国债期货市场席位结构解析 3 | | | | 3 | | | | 4 | | | | 5 | | | 第三部分 | 基于席位行为的国债期货交易风格指数 | 6 | | | 6 | | | | 7 | | | | 8 | | | 第四部分 | 总结 | 11 | | | 免责声明 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market maintains a volatile trend, with different sectors showing various performance characteristics. Factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical issues significantly impact the market. For example, the expected Fed rate cut affects the precious metals market, and geopolitical conflicts influence the oil market [69][70][121]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market lacks catalysts and remains volatile. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels, conduct IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and adopt a double - buying option strategy [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment is weak, and the ultra - long end is under pressure. It is advisable to lightly short the T contract on rallies and be cautious about curve - steepening arbitrage [24][25][26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: There is obvious supply pressure, and the price of US soybeans continues to decline. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a strategy of selling wide - straddle options [28][29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are adjusting, and domestic sugar prices are falling. It is suggested to wait and see [30][31][33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The market continues to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short term [34][35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot is strong, and the futures are in a high - level volatile state. Different trading strategies are proposed for different contracts [37][39]. - **Hogs**: There is still supply pressure, and the price fluctuates slightly. A bearish strategy is recommended [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The spot is stable, and the futures fluctuate downward. Short - selling at high levels for the 01 contract and waiting and seeing for the 05 contract are advised [44][45][46]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to build long positions at low levels for far - month contracts [47][48][49]. - **Apples**: The inventory is low, and the fundamentals are strong. It is recommended to wait and see [50][51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the price fluctuates mainly. It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will be slightly strong in the short term [53][54][55]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price fluctuates in a range, and the cost provides support. It is recommended to maintain a volatile strategy, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread [58][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are in a bottom - oscillating state. It is advisable to lightly go long on far - month contracts at low levels [60][61][62]. - **Iron Ore**: It should be treated with a bearish view at high levels [63][64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost drives a short - term rebound, but the demand suppresses the rebound height. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold remains stable, and the game for silver intensifies. It is recommended to hold long positions for gold and be cautious with new positions for silver, and buy out - of - the - money call options [69][70][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum can be bought on dips, and palladium fluctuates. It is recommended to go long on the platinum - palladium ratio and buy out - of - the - money call options [72][73][75]. - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warrants increase significantly, and the copper price hits a new high. It is recommended to hold remaining long positions and pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [77][78][79]. - **Alumina**: There is no substantial production cut, and the price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [80][81][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas market sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are supportive. It is recommended to be bullish on dips in the medium term [86][87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It moves with the aluminum price. It is recommended to wait and see [88][89][90]. - **Zinc**: It fluctuates widely. It is recommended to wait and see [91][92]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates in a range. It is advisable to go long lightly on dips [93][94]. - **Nickel**: Supply increases and demand decreases in December. It is recommended to be a short - side allocation [96][97]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are weak. It is recommended to be a short - side allocation [99][100][101]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates in a range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [102][105]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of state - purchase implementation, and the price may strengthen again. It is recommended to avoid short positions first and try to go long on far - month contracts at low levels [107][108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is under pressure to correct in the medium term. It is recommended to buy after a full correction in the long term [109][110][111]. - **Tin**: The expectation of rate cut and supply concerns drive the price up. It is recommended to maintain a high - level volatile view [112][113][114]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: There is still an expectation of a price increase in January, and the futures are expected to continue to rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in the EC2602 contract and consider partial profit - taking for the 2 - 4 cash - and - carry arbitrage [115][116][119]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical conflicts dominate, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to wait and see [120][121][122]. - **Asphalt**: The pessimistic sentiment eases, and the price rebounds. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2601 contract [123][124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase. It is recommended to wait and see [125][126][128]. - **Natural Gas**: The terminal demand is weak, and the price drops faster. It is recommended to sell call options for TTF and adopt a combination of selling out - of - the - money call options and buying out - of - the - money put options for HH [130][132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: PX supply is abundant, and PTA has an inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage for PX1, 3 contracts and PTA1, 5 contracts and sell out - of - the - money call and put options [135][136]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is an inventory accumulation expectation, and the price drops. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [138][139]. - **Short - Fiber**: Domestic demand declines seasonally. It is recommended to adopt a double - selling option strategy [140][141]. - **Bottle Chips**: The demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to adopt a double - selling option strategy [142][143]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The cost lacks support, and the inventory needs to be reduced. It is recommended to short pure benzene and go long on styrene and sell out - of - the - money call options [145][146][148]. - **Propylene**: The price of external propane rises, and propylene fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to short on rallies and sell call options [151][152]. - **Plastic PP**: The cost increases. It is recommended to wait and see for the L and PP 01 contracts and hold the SPC L2605&PP2605 contract [153][154][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [156][157]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see [158][159][160]. - **Soda Ash**: It fluctuates. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting soda ash and going long on glass for the 05 contract [161][162]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair logic weakens, and the price drops. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting soda ash and going long on glass for the 05 contract [163][164][165]. - **Methanol**: It fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5 - 9 cash - and - carry arbitrage [167][169]. - **Urea**: It fluctuates strongly. It is expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the medium term [170][171][172]. - **Pulp**: The sentiment in the spot market improves. It is recommended to wait and see and take profit on previous long positions gradually [173][174][176]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the potential impact of Sino - Japanese relations on log imports [176][177][178]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remains, and the market lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option [183][184]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Hold short positions. It is recommended to set stop - loss levels for RU01 and NR01 contracts and hold the RU2601 - NR2601 spread [186][187][189]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The oil - end cost decreases. It is recommended to hold short positions for the BR 02 contract and the BR2602 - NR2602 spread [190][191][192].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2][3] - Report Date: December 3, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [5] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Disk - SR09: Closing price 5,317, down 11 (-0.21%), volume 4,413 (down 1,659), open interest 22,981 (up 1,618) [6] - SR01: Closing price 5,366, down 16 (-0.30%), volume 133,086 (down 30,887), open interest 330,181 (down 8,305) [6] - SR05: Closing price 5,297, down 19 (-0.36%), volume 60,725 (up 2,637), open interest 237,171 (up 15,382) [6] Spot Price - Sugar in Liuzhou: Today's quote 5,545, down 20, basis 179 [6] - Sugar in Kunming: Today's quote 5,410, down 5, basis 44 [6] - Sugar in Wuhan: Today's quote 5,840, down 10, basis 474 [6] - Sugar in Nanning: Today's quote 5,480, down 30 [6] - Sugar in Rizhao: Today's quote 5,750, basis 384 [6] - Sugar in Xi'an: Today's quote 6,040, down 20, basis 674 [6] Monthly Spread - SR05 - SR01: Spread -69, down 3 [6] - SR09 - SR05: Spread 20, up 8 [6] - SR09 - SR01: Spread -49, up 5 [6] Import Profit - Brazil Import: ICE main 14.77, premium (0.19), freight 38.00, in - quota price 4,071, out - of - quota price 5,173, spread with Liuzhou 372, spread with Rizhao 577, spread with the disk 193 [6] - Thailand Import: ICE main 14.77, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4,117, out - of - quota price 5,223, spread with Liuzhou 322, spread with Rizhao 527, spread with the disk 143 [6] Group 3: Market Judgment Important Information - Guangxi: As of November 30, 2025, 35 sugar mills have started crushing, 26 less than the same period last year; cumulative cane crushed 1.4411 million tons, 3.2521 million tons less than last year; mixed sugar production 133,900 tons, 378,500 tons less than last year; mixed sugar yield 9.29%, 1.63 percentage points lower than last year; cumulative sugar sales 89,400 tons, 195,600 tons less than last year; sales ratio 66.77%, 11.15 percentage points higher than last year; new sugar industrial inventory 44,500 tons, 182,900 tons less than last year [8] - Yunnan: As of November 30, 2025, 10 sugar mills have started crushing (5 last year); cumulative cane crushed 439,400 tons (349,700 tons last season); sugar production 44,800 tons (38,600 tons last season); sugar yield 10.22% (11.05% last season); cumulative new sugar sales 32,200 tons (32,600 tons last year); sales ratio 71.89% (84.50% last year); industrial inventory 12,600 tons (5,900 tons last year) [9] - Brazil: The growth of ethanol demand in Brazil should ensure that the expansion of corn as a bio - fuel raw material will not endanger sugarcane ethanol producers. Since the early 2000s, Brazil's corn ethanol production has more than tripled, while sugarcane ethanol production has remained roughly flat [11] Logical Analysis - International: Brazilian sugarcane is expected to gradually enter the harvest stage, and producing ethanol is more advantageous, so the sugar - making ratio has decreased significantly recently. The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is 39.179 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out, with a short - term price trend slightly stronger in a volatile manner [12] - Domestic: In the short term, domestic sugar mills are starting to crush one after another, and the output in the new season will increase, so the supply and sales pressure will gradually increase. However, considering the tightened import of syrup and premixed powder in China and the relatively high previous point - pricing cost, the domestic sugar production cost is also high, which provides some support for the futures price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [12] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: As the Brazilian sugar season is approaching the end, the supply - side pressure is easing, and the international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out, with a short - term expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner. Although the domestic market has an unexpectedly large amount of imported sugar and the start of sugar mills, increasing the sales pressure, considering the high domestic white sugar production cost and the relatively low current futures price, the downward space is expected to be limited. Short - term long positions can be considered to be built at low prices [13] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [14] - Options: Sell put options at low levels [14] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, Guangxi monthly production, Yunnan monthly production, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, sugar September basis, Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread, sugar January basis, Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spread, sugar May basis, Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 spread, etc. [15][20][23][24][29][31]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 12 月 03 日 研究员：刘倩楠 Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3138 | 3202 | -64 | 01-05 | -463 | -450 | -13 | | JD05 | 3601 | 3652 | -51 | 05-09 | -499 | -465 | -34 | | JD09 | 4100 | 4117 | -17 | 09-01 | 962 | 915 | 47 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.39 | 1.43 | -0.04 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.03 | 1.05 | -0.02 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.57 | 1 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an apple daily report in the agricultural product research report, dated December 3, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji apple price index is 106.38, up 0.02 from the previous day; 6 - fruit average wholesale price is 7.30, unchanged [2] - Price of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70 is 4.15, unchanged; price of Qixia 1st and 2nd - grade paper - bag 80 is 3.75, unchanged; price of Yiyuan paper - bag 70 is 2.40, unchanged; price of Penglai 1st and 2nd - grade paper - bag 80 is 3.75, unchanged [2] Futures Prices - AP01 closes at 9484, down 4 from the previous day; AP05 closes at 9712, down 18; AP10 closes at 8645, up 136 [2] - AP01 - AP05 is - 228, up 14; AP05 - AP10 is 1067, down 154; AP10 - AP01 is - 839, up 140 [2] Basis Prices - Qixia 1st and 2nd - grade 80 - AP01 is - 1984, up 4; Qixia 1st and 2nd - grade 80 - AP05 is - 2212, up 18; Qixia 1st and 2nd - grade 80 - AP10 is - 1145.0, down 136 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Transaction Logic - This year's apple production has declined, the quality fruit rate is poor, storage is more difficult, and market expects low cold - storage inventory data. As of November 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas is 766.75 million tons, down 6.41 million tons from last week and 79.5 million tons from last year. The cold - storage inventory peak this year is at a low level in the same period over the years, so the effective inventory is expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong [5] Transaction Strategy - Unilateral: Although the apple fundamentals are strong, considering the high price of the January contract and high risks approaching delivery, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8] - Options: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8] Other Market News - As of November 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas is 766.75 million tons, down 6.41 million tons from last week and 79.5 million tons from last year, a decrease of 9.4% [7] - In October 2025, fresh apple imports are 0.31 million tons, down 68.09% month - on - month and up 8.54% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative imports are 11.12 million tons, up 19.18% year - on - year. In October 2025, fresh apple exports are about 8.04 million tons, up 13.51% month - on - month and down 17.04% year - on - year [7] - The apple market in the producing areas is basically stable with little price change. In Shandong, cold - storage transactions are few with only a small number of customers purchasing. In the northwest, cold - storage merchants mainly package their own goods with low procurement volume. The cold - storage shipment speed has slowed down slightly compared with last week. The market arrivals are stable and prices remain unchanged [7] - The mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples (70 and above) in Luochuan, Shaanxi is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per jin. The cold - storage trading volume is small, with some Northeast merchants purchasing 80 and above. The mainstream price of growers' apples is 4.5 - 5.0 yuan per jin, and that of merchants' apples is 5.5 - 6.0 yuan per jin. The mainstream purchase price of cold - storage apples (70 and above) by merchants is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per jin, and the asking price of growers is also 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per jin [7] Group 4: Relevant Attachments Figures - Figures include Qixia 1st and 2nd - grade paper - bag 80 price, Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70 price, AP contract main basis, AP10 - AP01, AP05 - AP10, AP10 - AP05, total apple arrivals in Chalong, Jiangmen and Xiaqiao, 6 - fruit price, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple shipment [10][13][16][18][24] - Data sources for figures mainly include Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [13][15][18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The supply side has a large number of new cotton flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production in the new year, but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side has average recent orders, but the previous negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate strongly. The future trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts all showed price declines. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13780, down 20, with a trading volume of 229,172 (an increase of 52245), and an open interest of 522,168 (a decrease of 21990) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15005 yuan/ton, up 69; the Cot A price was 74.95 cents/pound; the FC Index:M: arrival price was 74.07, down 0.09. The prices of some other spot products such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc. also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spread**: In the cotton and yarn markets, there were changes in inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 30, down 15; the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6145, down 60 [2]. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On December 3, 2025, the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1940 yuan/ton·km, unchanged from the previous period. In October 2025, Japan's clothing imports remained at a high level, with the import value reaching 364.853 billion yen (equivalent to 2.418 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 4.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.99%. On December 2, 2025, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 5.94 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.68 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - **Trading Logic**: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be some selling and hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. After the peak season, the market has entered a relatively off - season. Overall, the supply is abundant but the increase may be less than expected, and the demand is average, but previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, so Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated strongly, while cotton yarn futures fluctuated weakly, with an overall bearish profit outlook. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders and mostly small orders. High - count yarns still had good sales. The all - cotton clothing grey fabric market was weak, and fabric mills were mainly focused on inventory reduction. The anti - down fabric in Nantong Home Textile Market in Jiangsu still had continuous sales, but the profit margin was lower than expected [8]. Options - **Option Contract Data**: On November 24, 2025, for option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, information such as the underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, etc. was provided. For example, the CF601C13400.CZC contract had a closing price of 183.00, a price increase rate of 71.0%, and an implied volatility of 6.7% [10]. - **Volatility and Strategy**: The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were different. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for options [10][11][12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term peanut spot price is relatively stable due to supply increase and weak downstream demand, and the peanut futures will still fluctuate at a high level. The new - season peanut output is expected to be higher than last year with lower planting costs, and there is still room for the peanut 01 contract to fall [3][6] - The peanut oil spot price is stable, the peanut meal price has been stable recently, and the oil mills' theoretical pressing profit is good [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data - **Futures盘面**: For PK604, the closing price is 8020, down 24 (-0.30%), with a trading volume of 32,653 (up 7.37%) and an open interest of 25,114 (up 0.66%); for PK510, the closing price is 8214, down 12 (-0.15%), with a trading volume of 122 (up 43.53%) and an open interest of 734 (up 1.66%); for PK601, the closing price is 8052, down 56 (-0.70%), with a trading volume of 72,932 (down 9.47%) and an open interest of 88,007 (down 18.61%) [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi are 7800, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with the price in Henan Nanyang up 400. The basis for these regions are -252, -52, -52 respectively. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil are 3250, 3020, 14470, and 8510 respectively, with no price changes. The import prices of Sudanese rice and Senegalese rice are 8600 and 7600 respectively, with no price changes [1] - **Spreads**: The spread of PK01 - PK04 is 32, down 32; the spread of PK04 - PK10 is -194, down 12; the spread of PK10 - PK01 is 162, up 44 [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - The peanut price in Henan is stable, while that in Northeast China is weak. The price of 308 general peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.8 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.75 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha general peanuts in Henan is 3.65 - 3.9 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Junan, Shandong is 3.4 yuan/jin, stable. The import prices of Sudanese refined rice, Senegalese rice, Brazilian new rice, and Indian specification rice are stable [3] - Some peanut oil mills have lowered their purchase prices, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 7000 - 7350 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills is 7860 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil are stable, with the domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil quoted at 14500 yuan/ton and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil quoted at 16500 yuan/ton [3] - The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal is stable at 3010 yuan/ton. The unit protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the peanut meal is relatively strong in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3100 yuan/ton [4] Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Peanut contracts 01 and 05 will fluctuate at a high level, and short - sell peanut 01 on rallies [7] - **Calendar Spread**: Reverse - arbitrage the 1 - 5 spread on rallies [8] - **Options**: Sell the pk603 - P - 8200 option on rallies [9] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The part provides six figures, including the Shandong peanut spot price, peanut oil mill pressing profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 10 - 1 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [11][17][18]

第二部分 基本面分析 研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 12 月 03 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | 2025/12/3 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 2601收盘价 | | 涨跌 | | 各品种地区现货价 | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8286 | (2) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8546 | | | | 8566 | 8446 | | 280 | -10 | 260 | -10 | 160 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8730 | 10 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8680 ...