研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 12 月 2 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/12/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | 2243 | 7 | 0.31% | 528,615 | -12.61% | 927,482 | -2.39% | | C2605 | 2280 | 7 | 0.31% | 97,391 | 5.22% | 375,704 | 2.85% | | C2509 | 2287 | -1 | -0.04% | 6,930 | 11.97% | 24,335 | 8.90% | | CS2601 | 2546 | 4 | 0.16% | 104,490 | -17.87% | 228,326 | -0.80% | | CS2605 | 2607 | -9 | -0.35% | 4,3 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is continuously speculating on the implementation expectations of price increases in the second half of December and January, and the EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation [5]. - It is expected that the trading logics of the December and February contracts will diverge. The December contract follows the price in the second half of December, while the February contract focuses on the expected price increase and its implementation in January. The spread between the two contracts is uncertain, and the improvement in cargo volume needs to be tracked [6]. - The second - stage peace talks are expected to be tortuous. It is difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, but the probability of resumption after the Spring Festival may gradually increase [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Container Shipping - Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On December 2, EC2512 closed at 1,633.6 points, down 0.19% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line on November 28 was reported at $1,404/TEU, up 2.7% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line reported after Monday's market close was 1,483.65 points, down 9.5% month - on - month, slightly lower than market expectations [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: - **Spot Market**: MSK released a quote of $2,400 for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in week 51, up $200 from last week. Some shipping companies have announced price increases for the second half of December, with online quotes ranging from $2,800 to $3,500 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The demand for shipping from December to January is expected to gradually improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports in December is 283,200 TEU, and the weekly average capacities in January and February 2026 are 298,800 TEU and 280,500 TEU respectively [6]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The second - stage peace talks are expected to be difficult, and it is hard to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival. The number of return ships passing through the Suez Canal is expected to gradually increase, and the probability of resumption after the Spring Festival may rise [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Single - side Trading**: Hold long positions in EC2602 and pay attention to the rhythm of shipping companies' price increases and cargo volume improvement [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider partial profit - taking on the 2 - 4 positive spread [8]. 3.1.2 Industry News - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2, lower than the market expectation of 49, and it has been in the contraction range for nine consecutive months [10]. - HMM, South Korea's largest liner company, signed a shipbuilding order worth approximately $1.445 billion to build 8 dual - fuel container ships of 13,400 TEU, which are expected to be delivered in the first half of 2029 [10]. 3.2 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures showing the trends of various shipping indices and container freight rates, such as SCFIS European Line Index, SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [12][15][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures still have the momentum to rebound, and the treasury bond futures should focus on the central bank's bond - buying scale. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply pressure of international soybeans increases, and the international sugar price has bottomed out, while the domestic sugar price is in a low - level shock. The oscillation in the oil sector continues. - In the ferrous metals sector, steel prices fluctuate within a range with cost support, coking coal and coke operate in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and iron ore should be treated with a high - level short - bias mindset. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, gold is in a strong - bias oscillation, and silver hits a new high. Platinum and palladium generally follow the upward trend of gold and silver, but there is a risk of callback. Summary According to Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market rebounded with increased trading volume. The index is expected to continue to rebound, and attention should be paid to the previous pressure levels. The trading strategies include short - term oscillating upward, conducting IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using the double - buying option strategy [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The performance of treasury bond futures was divided on Monday. The central bank's open - market operation led to a net withdrawal of short - term liquidity. The 11 - month official manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and the previous long positions are recommended to be closed at high points [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply pressure of international soybeans increases, and the domestic supply may remain high. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate. The option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [28][29]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production in Brazil may be lower than expected, and the international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom with a slightly upward trend. Domestically, the new sugar production increases, but the high production cost provides support. The trading strategies include short - term bottom - oscillating, conducting 1 - month long and 5 - month short arbitrage, and selling put options at low levels [35][36]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in November, and the export was weak. The inventory is expected to gradually decrease. The price of soybean oil follows the overall trend, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline. The recommended strategy is to conduct short - term low - buying and high - selling band operations [37][38][39]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures fell. The domestic northeast corn price is strong, and the north China price is weak. The 01 - contract corn oscillates at a high level. The trading strategies include short - term long on the 03 - contract corn on dips, short on the 01 - contract corn at high points, and waiting for dips on the 05 and 07 - contract corn [40][41]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter rhythm of large - scale enterprises has slowed down, but the overall supply pressure still exists. The recommended strategies are a short - bias mindset and selling a wide - straddle [43]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates at a high level. The trading strategies include short - selling the 01 - contract peanut at high points, waiting and seeing on the 05 - contract peanut, conducting 1 - 5 contract reverse arbitrage, and selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option [45][47]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price is mainly stable. The in - production laying - hen inventory is still high. The recommended strategy is to build long positions on the far - month contract on dips [48][49][50]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory is low, and the fundamentals are strong. Considering the high price of the 01 - contract and the approaching delivery, it is recommended to wait and see [51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton supply increases, and the demand enters the off - season. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term [55]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price oscillates within a range with cost support. The trading strategies include maintaining an oscillating - upward trend, conducting the coil - coal ratio arbitrage, and waiting and seeing on options [59][60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is operating at the bottom. The trading strategies include lightly buying far - month contracts on dips, stopping profit on the 1/5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal, and waiting and seeing on options [61][62]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to be treated with a high - level short - bias mindset. The supply is loose in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak. The trading strategy is to be short - biased at high levels [64]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term rebound is driven by cost, but the future demand pressure suppresses the rebound height. The option strategy is to sell an out - of - the - money straddle [67][68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is in a strong - bias oscillation, and silver hits a new high. The trading strategies include holding long positions on gold below the 5 - day moving average, and for silver, aggressive investors can hold long positions against the 5 - day moving average, while conservative investors can adjust the stop - profit point. Buying out - of - the - money call options is also recommended [70][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: They generally follow the upward trend of gold and silver, but there is a risk of callback due to arbitrage. The trading strategies include holding long positions on platinum following gold and silver, being cautious about the callback risk, having a neutral view on palladium, conducting long platinum - short palladium ratio arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [73][74]. - **Copper**: The Japanese central bank's hawkish remarks trigger concerns about global liquidity tightening. The copper price may experience a short - term pull - back but has a long - term upward trend. The trading strategy is to take partial profit on long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton and then buy back on dips [77][78]. - **Alumina**: The short - term maintenance has limited impact. The price is expected to be in a weak - bias oscillation. The trading strategies include waiting and seeing on arbitrage and options [80][82]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The macro and micro factors resonate, and the aluminum price is in a strong - bias oscillation. The trading strategy is to be bullish on the medium - term price on dips [85][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates strongly following the aluminum price. The trading strategies include waiting and seeing on arbitrage and options [88][89]. - **Zinc**: The price fluctuates widely. The trading strategy is to take partial profit on profitable long positions and be vigilant about macro factors [91][93]. - **Lead**: The price oscillates within a range. No specific trading strategies are recommended in the text [95].

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 801.0 | 794.0 | 7.0 | I01-I05 | 23.5 | 26.0 | -2.5 | | DCE05 | 777.5 | 768.0 | 9.5 | I05-I09 | 25.0 | 24.5 | 0.5 | | DCE09 | 752.5 | 743.5 | 9.0 | I09-I01 | -48.5 | -50.5 | 2.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 790 | 794 | -4 | 860 | 58 | 84 | 109 | | 纽曼粉 | 791 | 796 | -5 | 858 | 56 | 82 | 106 | | 麦克粉 | 788 | 789 | -1 | 859 | 57 | 83 | 108 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report, December 1, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [2] Group 2: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar at 3,260 yuan (+40), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3,230 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil at 3,310 yuan (+20), Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil at 3,250 yuan (+30) [4] Group 3: Market Analysis - Market trend: The black metal sector maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with coal and coke leading the rebound [5] - Steel production and inventory: Five major steel products continued to increase production, with rebar production decreasing and hot-rolled coil increasing; total steel inventory destocking slowed down, social inventory destocking accelerated, and apparent steel demand declined slightly [5] - Raw material outlook: Iron ore production is expected to continue to decline this week, squeezing raw material prices; coal and coke prices have recently accelerated their decline due to increased supply and inventory, but the downside for coking coal is limited [5] - Steel price forecast: Short-term steel prices will remain volatile and slightly stronger, following the fundamentals and continuing to trade within a range [5] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [6] - Arbitrage: Suggest closing long positions in the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread for profit [7] - Options: Suggest waiting and seeing [8] Group 5: Important Information - Environmental inspection: The third round and fifth batch of central environmental protection inspection teams reported typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei [9] - Tangshan steel billet: On the 1st, the direct sales of Tangshan steel billets were average, and the ex-factory price of steel billets is expected to increase by about 10 yuan in the afternoon [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Black Metal Daily - Ferroalloy Daily, December 1, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5466, daily change 76, weekly change 10, trading volume 354,243, daily change 121,697, open interest 254,583, daily change -3,190 [3] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5738, daily change 122, weekly change 108, trading volume 256,244, daily change 143,035, open interest 253,444, daily change -61,711 [3] Spot - Silicon Iron: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia priced at 5250, daily change 50, weekly change 20; in Ningxia 5200, daily change 0, weekly change -30; in Qinghai 5250, daily change 0, weekly change -20; in Jiangsu 5500, daily change 0, weekly change -20; in Tianjin 5400, daily change 0, weekly change 0 [3] - Manganese Silicon: Si - Mn 6517 in Inner Mongolia priced at 5530, daily change 30, weekly change 10; in Ningxia 5510, daily change 30, weekly change 30; in Guangxi 5550, daily change 20, weekly change 20; in Jiangsu 5700, daily change 50, weekly change 30; in Tianjin 5680, daily change 50, weekly change 30 [3] Basis/Spread - Silicon Iron: Inner Mongolia - Main contract basis -216, daily change -26, weekly change 10; Ningxia - Main contract -266, daily change -76, weekly change -40; Qinghai - Main contract -216, daily change -76, weekly change -30; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread 250, daily change -50, weekly change -40; SF - SM spread -272, daily change -46, weekly change -98 [3] - Manganese Silicon: Inner Mongolia - Main contract basis -208, daily change -92, weekly change -98; Ningxia - Main contract -228, daily change -92, weekly change -78; Guangxi - Main contract -188, daily change -102, weekly change -88; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread 20, daily change -10, weekly change 10 [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump ore priced at 40, daily change 0, weekly change 0.2; South African semi - carbonate 34.2, daily change 0, weekly change -0.1; Gabon lump ore 42, daily change 0, weekly change 1.3 [3] - Lanthanum Coke Small Materials: In Shaanxi priced at 820, daily change 0, weekly change 0; in Ningxia 920, daily change 0, weekly change 0; in Inner Mongolia 810, daily change 0, weekly change 0 [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Trading Strategy - On December 1, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon iron main contract closed at 5466, up 1.41%, with open interest decreasing by 3190 lots; the manganese silicon main contract closed at 5738, up 2.17%, with open interest decreasing by 61,711 lots [5] - Silicon Iron: Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend on the 1st. Supply continued to decline slightly as alloy plants continued maintenance. Demand may see a short - term increase in steel production due to improved steel profits, but overall steel apparent demand will decline seasonally in December, and the resumption of production is expected to be short - lived. Costs were generally stable. Overall, short - term costs provide support, the fundamentals have slightly improved, and it rebounds in the short term following the overall commodity sentiment, but the rebound height should not be over - expected [5] - Manganese Silicon: Manganese ore spot prices were generally stable on the 1st, and manganese silicon spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, rising 20 - 50 yuan/ton in various regions. Supply also continued to decline. Demand may see a short - term increase in steel production due to improved steel profits, but steel apparent demand will seasonally weaken in the future, and the resumption of production is expected to be short - lived. Manganese ore port inventory increased slightly but remained at a low level compared to the same period, and the spot price was firm, which pushed up the cost. It rebounds in the short term due to cost factors, but future demand pressure remains, suppressing the rebound height [5] Specific Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term rebound driven by costs, but future demand pressure still exists, suppressing the rebound height [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Group 4: Important Information - Xinyu Iron and Steel set the silicon iron purchase price at 5700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 600 tons [7] - The third round and fifth batch of the Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Team reported typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei. Tianjin had serious problems in volatile organic compound control and vehicle inspections, with sub - standard air quality and many enterprises found to be illegally discharging pollutants. Tangshan, Hebei, was named for illegally launching steel projects and adding new production capacity, and there were obvious shortcomings in air pollution prevention and control. Many enterprises were found to be illegally discharging pollutants and failing to meet ultra - low emission transformation standards. The inspection team will continue the investigation and carry out subsequent work as required [7] Group 5: Cost and Profit Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia: Production cost 5444 yuan/ton, profit - 324 yuan/ton [16] - Ningxia: Production cost 5625 yuan/ton, profit - 525 yuan/ton [16] - Shaanxi: Production cost 5729 yuan/ton, profit - 649 yuan/ton [16] - Qinghai: Production cost 5783 yuan/ton, profit - 633 yuan/ton [16] - Gansu: Production cost 5831 yuan/ton, profit - 681 yuan/ton [16] Manganese Silicon - Inner Mongolia: Production cost 5800 yuan/ton, profit - 300 yuan/ton [17] - Ningxia: Production cost 5892 yuan/ton, profit - 412 yuan/ton [17] - Guangxi: Production cost 6288 yuan/ton, profit - 758 yuan/ton [17] - Guizhou: Production cost 6183 yuan/ton, profit - 683 yuan/ton [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market supply and demand are relatively loose, with limited upward space for the soybean price. The domestic soybean meal market is also in a state of loose supply and demand, and there is still price pressure in the medium and long - term. Rapeseed meal is affected by supply pressure and relevant rumors, and its price is expected to be under pressure [4][7]. - The monthly spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a downward trend, and it is expected that there will still be pressure in the future [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On December 1, 2025, the domestic soybean meal futures prices slightly declined, and the rapeseed meal futures prices generally fell. The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions changed to varying degrees. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend [3]. - **Market Trends**: After the opening of the US soybean market, the market showed a volatile trend, and the domestic soybean meal market slightly declined. The rapeseed meal market generally declined, and the market was worried about supply pressure [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report of US soybeans is generally bullish, but the market has fully reflected the bullish factors, and the upward space is limited. The sowing progress of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is fast, and it is expected to be a bumper harvest, which will put pressure on the price in the medium - term. The old - crop soybeans in Brazil and Argentina have good export and crushing performance, but the future export growth space may be limited [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market supply and demand are relatively loose, with high inventory. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply pressure still exists [5]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The macro - situation is generally stable. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans, but the future import volume is still uncertain [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean market is mainly in a volatile state, and the price change is expected to be limited. The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the market. The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure due to loose supply and demand, and there is still price pressure in the medium and long - term. Rapeseed meal is affected by rumors and supply pressure, and its price is expected to be under pressure. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to continue to decline [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Continue to lay out a small number of long positions. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a sugar daily report dated December 1, 2025, focusing on sugar market analysis and trading strategies [2] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Disk - SR09 closed at 5,345, up 2 with a 0.04% increase, trading volume was 1,726 (up 211), and open interest was 19,977 (up 146) [3] - SR01 closed at 5,405, up 5 with a 0.09% increase, trading volume was 133,737 (down 13,168), and open interest was 350,573 (down 10,944) [3] - SR05 closed at 5,333, up 6 with a 0.11% increase, trading volume was 32,979 (down 5,739), and open interest was 215,384 (up 3,246) [3] Spot Prices - Sugar prices in different regions: Hezhou was 5,585 (down 30), Dianming was 5,425 (down 30), Wuhan was 5,850 (down 10), Nanning was 5,530 (unchanged), Yingyuquan was 0, Rizhao was 5,750 (down 50), and Liang'an was 6,080 (down 20) [3] Monthly Spreads - SR05 - SR01 spread was -72 (up 1), SR09 - SR05 spread was 12 (down 4), and SR09 - SR01 spread was -60 (down 3) [3] Import Profits - For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price was 4,122, out - of - quota price was 5,239, and the spread with Liuzhou was 346, with Rizhao was 511, and with the futures market was 166 [3] - For Thai imports, the in - quota price was 4,170, out - of - quota price was 5,302, and the spread with Liuzhou was 283, with Rizhao was 448, and with the futures market was 103 [3] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - Thailand's 2025/26 sugarcane season unified base price is set at 890 Thai baht/ton (equivalent to 196.78 yuan/ton), and the price fluctuation standard is 53.40 Thai baht/ton per CCS percentage point (equivalent to 11.81 yuan/ton) [5] - As of November 27, 2025/26 in India's Maharashtra state, 165 sugar mills were in operation (15 more than the same period last season), with 19.409 million tons of sugarcane crushed and 1.5148 million tons of sugar produced, with an average sugar yield of 7.8% [6] - In Yunnan, as of the end of November, 10 sugar mills were in operation (5 more than the same period last year). New sugar sales in November are expected to be about 30,000 tons (compared to 32,600 tons last year), and production is expected to be about 40,000 tons (compared to 38,600 tons last year) [8] Logic Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production may be lower than expected, and international sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out, with a short - term slightly bullish and volatile trend [9] - Domestically, new sugar production is increasing, but restricted imports and high production costs support the futures price, with a short - term low - level volatile trend [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider short - term long positions at low prices due to the potential bottoming of international sugar prices and high domestic production costs [10] - Arbitrage: Go long on January contracts and short on May contracts [11] - Options: Sell put options at low prices [11] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes various graphs such as Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, sugar basis, and futures spreads, providing visual data for market analysis [13][14][18]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 12 月 01 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 数据来源：银河期货、wind 咨询 1/7 F3013727 投资咨询证号： 研究所 农产品研发报告 一、基本面信息 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3201 | 3293 | -92 | 01-05 | -392 | -315 | -77 | | JD05 | 3593 | 3608 | -15 | 05-09 | -544 | -412 | -132 | | JD09 | 4137 | 4020 | 117 | 09-01 | 936 | 727 | 209 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.43 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on agricultural products (oils) dated December 1, 2025, released by the research institute of Galaxy Futures [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 3: Core Views - Short - term oils lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and high - selling low - buying range operations, and not to rush to buy palm oil [10] Group 4: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8288 with a gain of 44. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8558, 8588, and 8458 respectively. Basis values in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 300, 270, and 170 respectively [2] - For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 8652 with a gain of 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8602, 8732, and 8762 respectively. Basis values in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were - 50, 80, and 110 respectively [2] - For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9770 with a gain of 13. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10070, 10320. Basis values in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 300, and 550 respectively [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was 202 with a decline of 2. For palm oil, it was - 46 with a gain of 6. For rapeseed oil, it was 286 with a gain of 30 [2] Cross - Variety Spreads - For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 364 with a gain of 18, the OI - Y spread was 1482 with a decline of 31, the OI - P spread was 1118 with a decline of 13, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.73 with a gain of 0.02 [2] Import Profits - The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 225, and the CNF price was 1048. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1074, and the FOB price was 1095 [2] Weekly Commercial Inventories - In the 47th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 118.0 tons (last week: 114.9 tons, last year: 105.3 tons), palm oil was 66.7 tons (last week: 65.3 tons, last year: 48.3 tons), and rapeseed oil was 38.5 tons (last week: 43.0 tons, last year: 44.1 tons) [2] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - According to foreign media reports, the devastating floods in Sumatra, Indonesia, have not had a significant impact on palm oil production. The affected areas are mostly residential areas rather than palm oil plantations [4] Domestic Market - Palm oil: As of November 21, 2025, the national commercial inventory was 66.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39 tons (2.13%). It is at a neutral level compared to historical periods. The origin quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has widened to about - 300. The basis is stable. Short - term palm oil lacks a clear driver, with limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - Soybean oil: As of November 21, 2025, the national commercial inventory was 117.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14 tons (2.73%). It is at a relatively high level compared to historical periods, but the inventory inflection point has been reached. The basis is stable. There are rumors of 1 - 3 tons of soybean oil exports. Domestic demand is average. Short - term supply is sufficient, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see and then try to go long lightly after a callback [7] - Rapeseed oil: As of November 21, 2025, the coastal inventory was 38.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 tons. It is at a high level compared to historical periods, but the inventory is continuously decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has widened to about - 1000. The domestic basis is strong. It is expected that the coastal inventory will continue to decrease. It is recommended to go long on OI03 or 05 contracts when there is a callback [8] Group 6: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Short - term oils lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and high - selling low - buying range operations, and not to rush to buy palm oil [10] Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [11] Options - It is recommended to wait and see [12]