1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US relations policies. With high capacity in week 44, the implementation of price increases in the first half of November is expected to be poor, but there are still upward drivers at multiple price - increase announcement nodes later. The current valuation of December is not low, and it has returned to the stage mainly driven by spot (price increase announcements & implementation). In the case of repeated geopolitical situations, the upward space of far - month contracts is larger [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1100.1, 1682.0, 1522.0, 1155.1, and 1330.3 respectively, with daily increases of 0.29%, 1.65%, 3.40%, 2.77%, and 3.68%. The position of EC2510 decreased by 628, while that of EC2512 increased by 442 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 are - 581.9 and 160.0 respectively, with daily decreases of 24.1 and 22.7 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Indexes - **SCHIC**: Updated every Monday, the value on October 20, 2025, is 1140.38 points, with a 10.52% increase from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, the value on October 17, 2025, is 1145 dollars/TEU, with a 7.21% increase from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, the value on October 17, 2025, is 1267.91 points, with a 1.49% decrease from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: Updated every week, the value on October 17, 2025, is 803.21 points, with a 14.96% increase from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Shipping Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The average weekly capacities in October, November, and December are 269,000, 316,000, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended, they are 269,000, 300,000, and 330,000 TEU. The capacities in week 44 and 45 are 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively, indicating high supply pressure [1]. - **Demand**: Currently in the off - season, the cargo collection in week 42 was good, and that in week 43 of the OA alliance was good with a small amount of container use in the south. The cargo volume of PA and GEMINI was average. The supply - demand relationship maintained a weak balance. In week 44, with high capacity, the cargo - collection pressure increased significantly, especially for the PA alliance [1]. 3.4 Shipping Quotes - **Week 42**: The final offline prices of PA, GEMINI, and OA are 1500, 1600, and 1800 dollars respectively, with an average of 1640 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [2]. - **Week 43**: The PA alliance continued to reduce the price by 100 dollars to 1400 dollars. The offline quotes of PA, GEMINI, and OA are 1400, 1600, and 1800 dollars respectively [8]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market [8].

Report Overview - The report is a colored arbitrage morning report by the colored team of the research center on October 21, 2025, covering cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking for multiple metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin [1][2][4] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The domestic spot price is 85,650, the LME spot price is 10,656; the domestic March price is 85,360, the LME March price is 10,680, with a ratio of 8.04. The spot import profit is - 888.92 [1] Zinc - The domestic spot price is 21,870, the LME spot price is 3,178, with a ratio of 6.88; the domestic March price is 21,880, the LME March price is 2,948, with a ratio of 5.80. The spot import profit is - 5,169.01 [1] Aluminum - The domestic spot price is 20,930, the LME spot price is 2,782, with a ratio of 7.52; the domestic March price is 20,920, the LME March price is 2,777, with a ratio of 7.54 [1] Lead - The domestic spot price is 16,900, the LME spot price is 1,935, with a ratio of 8.75; the domestic March price is 17,100, the LME March price is 1,977, with a ratio of 11.08 [3] Nickel - The domestic spot price is 123,550, the LME spot price is 14,935, with a ratio of 8.27. The spot import profit is - 1,445.62 [1] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 990, 970, 900, 890 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 524, 946, 1377, 1808 [4] Zinc - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 35, 65, 90, 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 212, 330, 448, 566 [4] Aluminum - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 25, 35, 40, 45 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 332, 448, 565 [4] Lead - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 15, 25, 60, 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 317, 423, 530 [4] Nickel - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 300, - 60, 180, 380 respectively [4] Tin - The 5 - 1 spread is - 460, and the theoretical spread is 5791 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are - 1215 and - 225 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 279 and 897 [4] Zinc - The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are - 55 and - 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 169 and 296 [4] Lead - The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are 175 and 190 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 192 and 305 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - For copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc, the Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios are 3.90, 4.08, 4.99, 0.96, 1.22, 0.78 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios are 3.60, 3.87, 5.37, 0.93, 1.39, 0.67 respectively [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [3] 1. Futures Contract Information - **Price Changes**: The closing price of the BU main contract on September 19 was 3420, dropping to 3156 on October 17, a daily change of -44 and a weekly change of -314. Different contract months (BU10 - BU03) also showed varying degrees of price declines [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume increased from 246,616 on September 19 to 312,542 on October 17, with a daily increase of 43,198 and a weekly increase of 68,738. The open interest rose from 409,431 to 358,277, with a daily increase of 4,924 and a weekly increase of 11,368 [4]. 2. Spot Market Information - **Market Prices**: Market prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast) all declined to varying degrees. For example, the Shandong market price decreased from 3520 on September 19 to 3380 on October 17, a daily decrease of 40 and a weekly decrease of 80 [4]. - **Warehouse Prices**: Prices at various warehouses (Zhenjiang, Foshan, Hongrun, Jingbo) also declined. For instance, the Zhenjiang warehouse price dropped from 3470 to 3320, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 30 [4]. 3. Basis and Calendar Spread Information - **Basis**: The basis in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China) generally increased. For example, the Shandong basis (+80) climbed from 149 to 285, with a daily increase of 114 [4]. - **Calendar Spread**: Calendar spreads between different contract months (10 - 11, 10 - 12, etc.) showed different trends, with some spreads narrowing and others widening. For example, the 10 - 11 spread decreased from 180 to -78, a weekly decrease of 258 [4]. 4. Crack Spread and Profit Information - **Crack Spread**: The asphalt - Brent crack spread decreased from 244 to 193, a daily decrease of 52 [4]. - **Profit**: Profits of different types of refineries (asphalt - Ma Rui, ordinary refineries, Ma Rui - type refineries) also showed different trends. For example, the asphalt - Ma Rui profit decreased from 155 to 109, a daily decrease of 46 [4]. 5. Related Product Price Information - **Crude Oil**: The price of Brent crude oil decreased from 63.3 to 61.3, a daily increase of 0.2 and a weekly decrease of 2.0 [4]. - **Gasoline and Diesel**: The Shandong market prices of gasoline and diesel also declined. The gasoline price dropped from 7387 to 7281, a daily decrease of 39 and a weekly decrease of 106 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and imports are likely to remain high in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory reduction difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect methanol profits [2]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profits are around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating. LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New plants in 2025 will bring significant pressure [7]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of major producers are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profits are around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. PDH profits are around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Drawing production is at a neutral level. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the implementation of new production capacity and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stabilizing, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2285 to 2278, and the South China spot price decreased from 2270 to 2253. Other regional prices also showed certain fluctuations [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 785 on some days. The North China LL price decreased from 6890 to 6840, and the East China LL price remained at 7025 on some days. Other related prices and data also had corresponding changes [7]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6260 to 6000, and the Northeast Asian propylene price remained at 750. The East China PP price and other related prices also showed fluctuations [7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2425 to 2450, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 835 to 822. The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price increased from 4640 to 4680 [7].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4294.35 with a change of 69.60 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 51.80 with a change of -2.30 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1642.00 with a change of -32.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1539.00 with a change of -36.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 57.54 with no change [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10679.50 with a change of 157.00 [1] - The latest Dollar Index is 98.62 with a change of 0.07 [1] - The latest Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.16 with no change [1] - The latest Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.34 with no change [1] - The latest US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 150.76 with a change of 0.13 [1] - The latest yield of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.75 with no change [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 15752.90 with a change of -93.06 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory is 855.85 with a change of -64.25 [1] - Gold ETF持仓 is 1058.66 with a change of 11.45 [1] - Silver ETF持仓 is 15769.78 with a change of 272.38 [1] - SGE Silver inventory is 1172.37 with no change [1] - SGE Gold deferred - fee payment direction has a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred - fee payment direction has a change of 1.00 [1]

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/21 SP主力合约收盘价： 5156.00 | 日期 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5156.00 | 5122.00 | 4856.00 | 4856.00 | 4846.00 | | 折美元价 | 627.35 | 627.35 | 594.45 | 594.54 | 591.86 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 0.66380% | 5.47776% | 0.00000% | 0.20636% | 0.08261% | | 山东银星基差 | 444 | 478 | 744 | 734 | 744 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 404 | 438 | 729 | 729 | 739 | 以13%增值税计算 美元价格以及人民币价格均采用卓创数据，以13%增值税计算 | 日期 | | | 全国均价 | | | | 山东地区均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint - There is no clear core viewpoint explicitly stated in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Trading Volume Indicators**: The closing price of the main contract on 10/17 was 10,925, a daily decrease of 210 and a weekly increase of 145. The open interest of the main contract was 17,001, with a daily decrease of 1,410 and a weekly decrease of 12,074. The trading volume of the main contract was 57,027, a daily decrease of 19,877 and a weekly decrease of 7,984. The warrant quantity remained unchanged at 8,750 [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene basis was 125 on 10/17, a daily increase of 210 and a weekly decrease of 145. The 10 - 11 month spread was 290, a daily increase of 345 and a weekly increase of 400. The 11 - 12 month spread was 100, a daily increase of 15 and a weekly increase of 65 [3]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,050, unchanged from the previous day and week. The Transfar market price was 10,900, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly increase of 100. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,200, unchanged [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was 53, a daily increase of 26 and a weekly decrease of 26. The on - disk processing profit was - 73, a daily decrease of 182 and a weekly increase of 120. The import profit was - 79,618, a daily increase of 4 and a weekly increase of 184. The export profit was 424, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly decrease of 21 [3]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price on 10/17 was 8,622, a daily decrease of 25. The Jiangsu market price was 8,550, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly increase of 100. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,600, unchanged [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The carbon - four extraction profit data was incomplete. The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 124, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly increase of 100. The import profit was 350, a daily increase of 81 and a weekly increase of 278. The export profit was - 892, a daily decrease of 72 and a weekly decrease of 529 [3]. - **Downstream Profits**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 750, with incomplete daily data and a weekly decrease of 175. The ABS production profit data was incomplete. The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 760, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 30 [3]. 3.3 Variety - to - Variety Spreads - **BR - Related Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 2,306 on 10/17, a daily increase of 1,205 and a weekly increase of 11,924. The NR - BR spread was - 4,776, a daily increase of 1,320 and a weekly increase of 12,309 [3]. - **Other Spreads**: The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,500, a daily decrease of 130 and a weekly increase of 100. The 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 3,400, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 50 [3]. 3.4 Intra - Variety Spreads - The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 300 on 10/17, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 100. The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 950, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly decrease of 50 [3].

焦煤日报 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2025/10/21 研究中心黑色团队 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1575.00 | 0.00 | 25.00 | 174.00 | -1.56% Peak Downs | 204.50 | 0.00 | -1.50 | 1.50 | -7.70 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1115.00 | 64.00 | 85.00 | 124.00 | -7.85% Goonyella | 204.50 | 0.00 | -1.00 | 0.50 | -7.70 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1420.00 | 0.00 | -30.00 | 70.00 | -17.44% 盘面05 | 1297.00 | 30.50 | 74.00 | 76.50 | -7.59% ...

| | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1482.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 54.61 | -21.49% 高炉开工率 | 90.33 | | -0.22 | -0.02 | 3.22% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1735.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | -4.14% 铁水日均产量 | 240.95 | | -0.59 | -0.07 | 2.81% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1660.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | -19.61% 盘面05 | 1864.5 | 36.00 | 83.50 | 116.00 | -9.36% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1700.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | -19.24% 盘面09 | 1946 | 36.50 | 79.50 | 433.50 | -8.08% ...

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/10/13 2025/10/17 2025/10/20 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/13 2025/10/17 2025/10/20 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1180.0 | 1150.0 | 1160.0 | -20.0 | 10.0 | SA05合 约 | 1336.0 | 1294.0 | 1304.0 | -32.0 | 10.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1190.0 | 1150.0 | 1160.0 | -30.0 | 10.0 | SA01合约 | 1247.0 | 1209.0 | 1219.0 | -28.0 | 10.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1406.0 | 1360.0 | 1365.0 | -41.0 | ...