废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/23 华东 स्क 中部 日期 华南 2025/09/165 2257 2074 2270 2333 原点 2025/09/17 2259 2333 2080 2268 沙钢重三价格 (含税) � 2022 � 2023 � 2024 ● 2025 4,200 元/吨 3,900 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格 (不含税) ↓ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 3,600 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 品周H 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 长流程日耗 短流程日耗 ↓ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 倡展H u48 12 10 8 e 4 2 0 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 张家港废钢到货 】 据点资讯 ◆ 2022 ◆ 2023 ◆ 2024 ◆ 20 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [2] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: On September 22, the closing price of the main contract was 11,505, up 60 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; the open interest was 70,306, down 4,953 from the previous day and up 51,521 week - on - week; the trading volume was 95,866, up 1,305 from the previous day and up 59,284 week - on - week; the warrant quantity was 9,190, down 1,040 from the previous day and down 4,480 week - on - week; the virtual - to - real ratio was 38.25; the butadiene rubber basis was 45, down 110 from the previous day and up 50 week - on - week; the butadiene rubber basis (two major oil companies) was 195, down 60 from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3]. - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, down 50 from the previous day and down 150 week - on - week; the Transfar market price was 11,450, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,525, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3]. - **Profit Data**: The spot processing profit was - 238, up 52 from the previous day and down 150 week - on - week; the futures processing profit was - 283, up 162 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; the import profit was - 83,031, down 54 from the previous day and up 1,520 week - on - week; the export profit was 155, up 44 from the previous day and up 124 week - on - week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price Data**: The Shandong market price was 9,400, down 100 from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,200, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 week - on - week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,150, down 100 from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week; CFR China was 1,060, down 10 from the previous day and down 30 week - on - week [3]. - **Profit Data**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 196, up 90 from the previous day and up 110 week - on - week; the import profit was 527, up 80 from the previous day and up 197 week - on - week; the export profit was - 896, unchanged from the previous day and up 110 week - on - week [3]. Downstream Products - The butadiene rubber production profit was - 283, up 162 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; the styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 1,063, up 100 from the previous day and down 50 week - on - week; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 955, up 70 from the previous day and up 130 week - on - week [3]. Price Spreads - **Inter - variety Spreads**: RU - BR was - 54,691, up 5,033 from the previous day and down 51,901 week - on - week; NR - BR was - 57,881, up 5,078 from the previous day and down 51,806 week - on - week; Thai mixed - butadiene rubber was 3,300, up 170 from the previous day and down 150 week - on - week; 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,100, up 50 from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3]. - **Intra - variety Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 150, down 50 from the previous day and down 50 week - on - week; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper fundamentals show resilience, with downstream开工 rising and weakening scrap substitution. Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, with inventory expected to decline in September. Hold on dips in a low - inventory situation and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. - Zinc prices are moving down in a volatile way. The current internal - weak and external - strong pattern may further differentiate. Hold short positions and partially take profit on internal - external positive arbitrage [6]. - Nickel has weak short - term fundamentals, with high - level production and weak demand. The geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased, but there are price - supporting policies [7]. - Stainless steel has weak fundamentals. Steel mills are expected to resume production slightly, with mainly rigid demand. The short - term macro - situation follows the anti - involution expectation [7]. - Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply is tight, while demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to fluctuate greatly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9]. - Tin prices are in wide - range fluctuations. The domestic and overseas supply is expected to improve marginally. The short - term fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand. Suggest short - term waiting and light - position short selling above 275,000 yuan/ton [12]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October, affected by the resumption rhythm of Southwest and Hesheng. In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. - Carbonate lithium prices are moving strongly in a volatile way. With supply - side disturbances and seasonal demand, the price has high elasticity after the supply - side hype and strong downward support before that [18]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. The downstream开工 rate increased, and the scrap substitution effect weakened. The internal - external positive arbitrage has space [1]. - **Strategy**: Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: Aluminum prices declined slightly. The downstream开工 improved, and the inventory is expected to decline in September [1][2]. - **Strategy**: Hold on dips in a low - inventory situation and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: Zinc prices moved down in a volatile way. Supply from overseas mines increased, and domestic demand is seasonally weak. The LME inventory is at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and partially take profit on internal - external positive arbitrage [6]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: Nickel prices declined slightly. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is mentioned other than the analysis of fundamentals [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: Stainless steel prices were relatively stable. Steel mills are expected to resume production slightly, with mainly rigid demand [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is mentioned other than the analysis of fundamentals [7]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply is tight, and demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level [9]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate greatly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: Tin prices fluctuated widely. Domestic and overseas supply is expected to improve marginally, and demand is mainly rigid [12]. - **Strategy**: Suggest short - term waiting and light - position short selling above 275,000 yuan/ton [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October, affected by the resumption rhythm of Southwest and Hesheng [16]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Market Data**: Carbonate lithium prices are moving strongly in a volatile way. Supply - side disturbances and seasonal demand affect the market [18]. - **Strategy**: The price has high elasticity after the supply - side hype and strong downward support before that [18].

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/23 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1427.78 | 0.00 | -54.61 | -108.16 | -14.41% 高炉开工率 | 90.35 | | 0.17 | 0.10 | 7.70% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1680.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -110.00 | 7.69% 铁水日均产量 | 241.02 | | 0.47 | 0.27 | 7.68% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1605.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -110.00 | -10.34% 盘面05 | 1868.5 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 114.00 | -1.03% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1645.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -110.00 | -10.11% 盘面09 | 1948 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [1] Key Price and Inventory Data Coal Prices - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1503.00, with a weekly increase of 102.00 and an annual increase of 7.36% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 1020.00, with a daily increase of 11.00, a weekly increase of 70.00, a monthly increase of 72.00, and an annual decrease of 10.53% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1350.00, with a monthly decrease of 30.00 and an annual decrease of 18.18% [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1500.00, with a weekly increase of 80.00, a monthly increase of 30.00, and an annual decrease of 10.71% [2] Future Prices - The latest price of Futures 05 is 1323.00, with a daily increase of 10.50, a monthly increase of 79.00, and an annual increase of 4.46% [2] - The latest price of Futures 09 is 1389.50, with a daily increase of 9.00, a weekly increase of 18.00, a monthly increase of 326.50, and an annual increase of 6.23% [2] - The latest price of Futures 01 is 1229.00, with a daily increase of 13.00, a monthly increase of 30.50, and an annual decrease of 2.54% [2] Inventory Data - The total inventory is 3372.99, with a weekly increase of 56.61, a monthly decrease of 100.63, and an annual decrease of 10.92% [2] - The coal mine inventory is 232.79, with a weekly decrease of 21.73, a monthly decrease of 42.85, and an annual decrease of 15.02% [2] - The port inventory is 271.11, with a weekly decrease of 4.38, a monthly increase of 15.62, and an annual decrease of 34.53% [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 793.73, with a weekly decrease of 2.03, a monthly decrease of 12.07, and an annual increase of 10.49% [2] - The coking coking coal inventory is 883.54, with a weekly decrease of 36.51, a monthly decrease of 93.34, and an annual increase of 4.31% [2] Other Data - The coking capacity utilization rate is 75.87, with a monthly increase of 1.45 and an annual increase of 9.88% [2] - The coking coke inventory is 86.03, with a monthly decrease of 0.14 and an annual decrease of 0.06% [2] - The 05 basis is -23.34, with a daily increase of 5.59, a weekly increase of 92.95, and an annual decrease of 217.42 [2] - The 09 basis is -89.84, with a daily increase of 7.09, a weekly increase of 73.95, and an annual decrease of 1.59 [2] - The 01 basis is 70.66, with a daily increase of 3.09, a weekly increase of 91.45, and an annual decrease of 0.65 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is -66.50, with a daily increase of 1.50, a weekly decrease of 19.00, a monthly decrease of 247.50, and an annual increase of 0.60 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is 160.50, with a daily decrease of 4.00, a weekly increase of 17.50, a monthly increase of 296.00, and an annual increase of 2.41 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is -94.00, with a daily increase of 2.50, a weekly increase of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 48.50, and an annual increase of 16.09 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - end TA maintenance has been implemented, the start - up has declined slightly, polyester load has remained stable, inventory has accumulated slightly, the basis has weakened, and the spot processing margin has slightly recovered. With the restart of the device, TA de - stocking will slow down. Considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and new production in the future, the far - end inventory is expected to accumulate. However, the processing fee has reached a very low level for a long time, and as PX supply gradually returns, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand the processing fee under potential additional maintenance [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based production has slightly reduced the load, coal - based start - up has remained stable, overseas maintenance and restart coexist, port inventory has slightly accumulated at the beginning of next week due to stable arrivals and dull shipments, downstream stocking levels have increased, the basis has weakened month - on - month, and the benefit ratio has shrunk. The near - end new device has been put into production earlier than expected, and the valuation has been significantly compressed. With the increase in arrivals month - on - month and the high - supply expectation in the far - end, the port may start to gradually accumulate inventory. However, the actual inventory is still not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up has increased to 95.4% as some devices have increased their loads, sales have improved month - on - month, and inventory has continued to decline. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end has remained stable, raw material stocking has increased, and finished - product inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the benefit is weak. In the future, the speed of increasing the load at the polyester yarn end may slow down due to the high level of finished - product inventory. Although the start - up remains high due to the good spot benefit of staple fiber, the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump has remained stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton device has reduced the load, and Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device has restarted [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions is 2601(- 84). The domestic start - up of PX has declined, overseas devices have operated stably, PXN has weakened month - on - month, the benefits of disproportionation and isomerization have remained basically stable, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia has widened [1]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device has stopped again [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The basis of MEG spot transactions is around + 92 for 01. The near - end domestic oil - based production has slightly reduced the load, coal - based start - up has remained stable, overseas maintenance and restart coexist, port inventory has slightly accumulated at the beginning of next week, downstream stocking levels have increased, the basis has weakened month - on - month, and the benefit ratio has shrunk [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: Some devices such as Zhongtai and Xianglu have increased their loads, and the start - up has increased to 95.4% [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot price is around 6418, and the market basis is around - 10 for 10. Sales have improved month - on - month, inventory has continued to decline. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end has remained stable, raw material stocking has increased, and finished - product inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the benefit is weak [1]. Natural Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The national explicit inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump has remained stable. The daily and weekly price changes of various rubber products are provided in the report, such as the daily change of Shanghai full - latex is - 100, and the weekly change is - 460 [1]. Styrene - related Products - **Price Changes**: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related products have changed. For example, the daily change of pure benzene (CFR China) is - 10, and the daily change of styrene (Jiangsu) is - 75 [1]. - **Profit and Start - up Rate**: The domestic profits of PS, ABS, and EPS have changed, and the start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS are also presented in the report [1].

纯碱现货：重碱河北交割库现货报价在1180左右，送到沙河1210左右 纯碱产业：工厂库存较大幅度下行 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1143 1155 1143 1060 1082 1079 1199 1329 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 10合约 11合约 01合约 05合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(9/22） 昨日(9/19） 一周前(9/15） 一月前(8/22） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2019 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the current situation in the global oilseeds and oils market, including export, production, and import data, as well as policy changes and climate - related information [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Different Aspects 1. U.S. Soybean Data - As of the week ending September 18, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons, at the lower end of the estimated range. The previous week's volume was 821,809 tons (revised). The cumulative export inspection volume for the current crop year is 1,569,77 tons, compared to 1,246,429 tons in the same period last year [1] - As of the week ending September 21, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%. The harvest rate was 9%, lower than the expected 12%. The leaf - falling rate was 61% [1] 2. Argentina's Policy - Argentina's government announced the suspension of export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal to boost exports and increase dollar supply. The policy will be effective from Tuesday until October 31 or until the declared export value reaches $7 billion. The soybean export tax will drop from 26% to zero, soybean oil and meal from 24.5% to zero, and corn from 9.5% to zero [1] 3. Brazil's Soybean Export - Brazil exported 4,719,426.05 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of September, with an average daily export volume of 314,628.40 tons, an 8.20% increase compared to the same period last year [1] 4. Malaysia's Palm Oil Data - Different institutions reported different trends in Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20. ITS showed an 8.7% increase, AmSpec an 8.3% increase, and SGS a 16.1% decrease compared to the previous month. The production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 7.89% compared to the previous period [1] 5. China's Import Data - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 336,550.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.32% and a year - on - year increase of 16.54%. The main import sources were Indonesia and Malaysia [1] - China's rapeseed imports in August were 246,639.83 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.13% but a year - on - year decrease of 58.52%. The main source was Canada [1] - China's rapeseed meal imports in August were 213,385.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.56% and a year - on - year increase of 4.72%. The main sources were India and the UAE [1] - China's rapeseed oil imports in August were 137,572.47 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.75% and a year - on - year increase of 18.68%. The main sources were Russia and the UAE [1] 6. Indonesia's Policy Consideration - Indonesia is considering introducing B45 as a transitional step before implementing B50 due to potential technical and economic obstacles that may delay the full implementation of B50 until after 2026 [1] 7. Price and Spread Data - The report also includes data on import crushing margins, import profits, spot prices, protein meal basis, oil basis, regional price spreads, and seasonal spreads for various oilseeds and oils products [2][4][6][8]

Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the industry investment rating. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, with new - season corn approaching the market, enterprise demand for old corn is weakening, and prices are running weakly, but the decline is limited due to low inventory. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under the pressure of increased production and lower costs, and may reverse when consumption improves or farmers show reluctance to sell [4]. - Starch: In the short - term, as the cost of purchasing raw corn decreases, enterprises are likely to lower the price of starch to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [4]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil's high - pressure supply during the peak crushing season is weighing on sugar prices. Domestic prices are following the international trend, with imported sugar arriving at ports and processed sugar prices dropping [5]. - Cotton: The price has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low could be the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. - Eggs: Since September, the spot price has rebounded by nearly 40% due to increased demand and traders' "buy - on - rising" mentality. High inventory and cold - storage eggs cap the price increase, but the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost. Monitor the situation of culled hens and cold - storage egg release [10]. - Apples: The new - season apple harvest is approaching. The national output may not differ much from last year. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the price is currently stable. Attention should be paid to the final output [12]. - Pigs: There are policy - related expectations for a capacity inflection point next year, but in the medium - term, supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. The spot price has hit a new low this year, and the futures market is trading on weak reality. Focus on factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [16]. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the price in Changchun remained at 2230 (except for the missing data on the 22nd), the price in Jinzhou fluctuated from 2260 to 2250, and the price in Weifang remained at 2264. The price in Shekou remained at 2420. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2750 and 2850 respectively [3]. - **Analysis**: Short - term price of corn is weakening due to new - season supply, and starch price is expected to decline to reduce inventory. Long - term, both are under price - downward pressure [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased by 40, 30, and 25 respectively. The import profits from Thailand and Brazil increased by 23 each, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [5]. - **Analysis**: International supply pressure from Brazil affects prices, and domestic prices follow the international trend with increasing imported sugar supply [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 75, and the spot price of cotton yarn decreased by 50. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 63, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 29 [7]. - **Analysis**: Cotton price is in a consolidation phase, with limited downside and focus on demand changes [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained stable, while the price in Hubei decreased by 0.11. The basis decreased by 40, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.08 [10]. - **Analysis**: Spot price has rebounded, but high inventory and cold - storage eggs limit the increase, and the price is unlikely to fall below feed cost [10]. Apples - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7500. The 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month basis changed by - 18, 7, and - 11 respectively [11][12]. - **Analysis**: New - season output may be similar to last year, consumption is in the off - season, and price is stable. Monitor the final output [12]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.20, 0.20, 0.10, and 0.20 respectively, while the price in Shandong Linyi remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 170 [16]. - **Analysis**: There are policy expectations for next year, but medium - term supply pressure remains, and the spot price has hit a new low. Focus on slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market opened high and moved low on Monday. In the morning, it might have been trading on the price support in mid - October (CMA price increase) and the suspension of the China - Europe Railway Express (with limited actual impact), and then the decline was likely affected by the falling spot prices. The basis for October was around 60 points, and the spread between October and December was - 560 (-20) [1]. - The price is still falling in early October. There is an expected price increase in late October, but under the suppression of the off - season, the expectation may not be well - realized, and it is more likely to stabilize. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers [1]. - The valuation of the December contract is not low. The 02 contract may have a higher cost - performance ratio for long - allocation than the December contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 contract may be higher. The current valuation of the 04 contract is also high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - allocation in the short term, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to fluctuations. Therefore, the long - 02 and short - 04 spread trading can be considered. In addition, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by pre - holiday position reduction, and the risk of capital position transfer for the October contract with a large number of open positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Information - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1093.7, 1653.9, 1573.6, 1275.0, and 1454.5 respectively, with changes of 4.11%, 1.47%, 0.71%, 2.00%, and 1.07%. The open interest of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 was 46030 (-1685), 21956 (-124), 7398 (122), 8922 (81), and 0 (-33) respectively [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 were - 560.2 and 80.3 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 19.3 and 12.8, and week - on - week changes of - 56.1 and - 21.4 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Information - **Spot Freight Indexes**: The SCHIC SCFI (European line) was 1440.24 dollars/TEU on September 15 and 1052 dollars/TEU on September 19, with decreases of 8.06% and 8.84% compared to the previous period. The CCFI was 1470.97 points on September 19, a decrease of 4.31% from the previous period. The NCFI was 673.61 points on September 19, a decrease of 7.65% from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 39 (End of September)**: The average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was initially 1500 US dollars and then rose to 1570 US dollars. The PA Alliance's quotation was 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance's was 1600 - 1720 US dollars [2]. - **Weeks 40 - 41 (Early October)**: The average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was 1400 US dollars, the PA Alliance's was 1300 - 1500 US dollars (YML's 1300 US dollars was the lowest of the year), and the OA Alliance's was 1400 - 1600 US dollars [2]. - **Monday Changes**: OOCL's price dropped 50 to 1400 US dollars, and MSC's dropped 100 to 1490 US dollars. HPL - SPOT quoted 1435 for early October, 2035 for late October, and 2525 for November (HPL - SPOT's quotations usually fluctuate greatly and have limited reference value) [2]. 3.4 Related News - As of September 22, 2025, 157 out of 193 UN member states had recognized the State of Palestine. Israel stated that its war goal "is not limited to Gaza", and the rift in the Western world's consensus on Israel's policy was gradually widening [3].