玻璃纯碱早报 研究中心能化团队 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/10/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/23 | | 2025/10/24 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/23 | | 2025/10/24 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全5mm 大 板 | 1173.0 | 1130.0 | 1121.0 | -52.0 | -9.0 | F G 0 5合约 | 1231.0 | 1256.0 | 1236.0 | 5.0 | -20.0 | | 沙河长城 5 m m大板 | 1156.0 | 1113.0 | 1104.0 | -52.0 | -9.0 | F G 0 1合约 | 1095.0 | 1108.0 | 1092.0 | -3.0 | -16.0 | | 沙河5 m m大 ...

Group 1: Volatility Index Explanation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility to historical volatility. A larger difference means the implied volatility is relatively higher, while a smaller difference means it is relatively lower [3] Group 2: Volatility Data Visualization - The document presents the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and their differences (IV - HV) for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, silver, gold, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, rubber, iron ore, PTA, copper, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, rebar, zinc, urea, palm oil, etc [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low. Volatility spread is related to the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] - The document shows the implied volatility quantile rankings and historical volatility quantile rankings for different options such as 300 - stock index, 50ETF, PTA, methanol, etc [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Recently, the futures market has been strong due to shipping companies' additional sailings cancellations and good cargo receipts on multiple routes at the end of October. The current valuation of the December contract is high, but considering the upcoming price increase announcements and the upward momentum during the long - term contract signing season, the strategy of buying on dips for the December contract remains unchanged. There may be short - term downward fluctuations, and attention should be paid to possible price cuts by shipping companies in early November. Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, the February contract may have more upside potential with the arrival of the peak season, but geopolitical fluctuations also exist. The April contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies, but it may follow the near - term contracts and show a slightly stronger trend during the peak season from November to January, and positions can be gradually established [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1136.1, 1793.1, 1582.0, 1171.8, and 1374.8 respectively, with changes of - 0.04%, 0.27%, - 0.06%, 0.03%, and 1.59% [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 were 21899, 2589, and 1290 respectively, and the trading volume of EC2510 was 932. The open interests of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 decreased by 765, 94, 126, and 263 respectively [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 were - 657.0 and 211.1 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 5.3 and 5.7, and week - on - week changes of - 99.2 and 28.4 [1]. Spot Index Data - **Spot Indices and Changes**: As of October 20, 2025, the spot index was 1140.38, up 10.52% from the previous period. The SCFI (October 17, 2025) was 1145 US dollars/TEU, up 7.21% from the previous period. The CCFI (October 17, 2025) was 1267.91, down 1.49% from the previous period. The NCFI (October 17, 2025) was 803.21, up 14.96% from the previous period [1]. Recent European Line Quotations - **Current Booking Situation**: Currently, downstream customers are booking cabins for the end of October and early November (Week 44 - 45). The offline quotes for Week 44 are PA1400, GEMINI1600, and OA1800 US dollars [2]. - **Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies have announced price increases to 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent of about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened bookings at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, and the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened. The geopolitical premium faded, and the fundamental surplus intensified. The latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026 again. With a large number of oil tankers heading to major trading and transportation centers, on - land inventory pressure increased significantly in October, which is the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. [7] - Tensions in the Middle East flared up again as the Israeli Defense Forces carried out an air - strike on southern Gaza. Meanwhile, multiple factors influenced Russian oil supply, with India stating it would stop purchasing Russian oil, but the export volume from Russia to India in the first half of October increased by 250,000 barrels per day month - on - month. [7] - Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories fluctuated this week, and the total waterborne inventory remained flat. OPEC production increased by about 500,000 barrels per day in September, and crude oil net exports soared. Non - OPEC countries like Brazil, the US, Guyana, and Norway also saw a significant increase in crude oil net exports. [7] - This week, oil prices and global refinery profits weakened. The profit of gasoline in the external market was slightly stronger than that of diesel, while in the domestic market, gasoline was significantly weaker than diesel. During the peak maintenance period, downstream profits declined, and the domestic start - up rate was expected to weaken marginally. The demand side provided weak support for oil prices. [7] - The subsequent oil price trend depends on whether Russian crude oil supply declines marginally and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations before the APEC meeting at the end of October. In the baseline scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is currently in the trend of waterborne inventory converting to OECD inventory. The expected surplus in 2026 is 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. Attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on Russia and Iran on their export volumes in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation phase. [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From October 17 to 23, WTI increased from $57.54 to $61.79, a rise of $3.29; BRENT rose from $61.29 to $65.99, an increase of $3.40; DUBAI went up from $63.26 to $65.24, a gain of $1.38. [3] - During the same period, SC increased by 12.50, OMAN rose by 4.93. The spread between SC and BRT changed by - 1.61, and the spread between SC and WTI changed by - 1.50. [3] - The price of Japanese naphtha CFR increased from $537.00 to $551.50, and the spread between Japanese naphtha and BRT increased from $86.52 to $91.46. The Singapore 380CST fuel oil premium changed by 0.73, and the spread between Singapore 380 and BRT changed by - 6.65. [3] 2. Daily News - German Chancellor Merz is optimistic that the US will exempt the German subsidiary of Russian oil company Rosneft. There are concerns that without the exemption, the German subsidiary may be cut off from major customers. [3] - The US government is preparing a proposal to open almost all US coastal waters for new offshore oil drilling, which has been opposed by local governors. The preliminary draft indicates a significant expansion of areas eligible for oil and gas leasing in the US. [4] - Kuwait's oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase production in response to rising demand. This statement was made against the backdrop of rising oil prices after the US imposed new sanctions on Russia. [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report for the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels, a decrease of 0.2%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels, an increase of 0.2%; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.918 million barrels per day, an increase of 393,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [6] - For the week of October 10, US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels (expected - 75,000 barrels, previous value - 1.601 million barrels), and EIA refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels (expected - 294,000 barrels, previous value - 2.018 million barrels). [6] - From September 19 - 25, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased, while diesel production increased. Gasoline inventory increased, while diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month. [6]

Report Summary Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 4143.75, up 73.75 [1] - London Silver latest price is 49.11, up 1.35 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1550.00, down 12.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1425.00, up 4.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 61.79, up 3.29 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 10744.50, up 75.50 [1] - Dollar Index latest is 98.93, up 0.03 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.16, unchanged [1] - Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.33, unchanged [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 152.58, up 0.62 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 15488.94, down 94.74 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory is 663.37, down 28.32 [1] - Gold ETF holdings is 1052.37, unchanged [1] - Silver ETF holdings is 15469.20, down 128.41 [1] - SGE Silver inventory data not shown for change [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction data not shown for change [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, up 1.00 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 24, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 24, 2025, the domestic spot price was 85,500, the LME price was 10,733, and the ratio was 7.96; the domestic three - month price was 86,000, the LME price was 10,745, and the ratio was 7.97. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.09 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,100, the LME price was 3,260, and the ratio was 6.78; the domestic three - month price was 22,370, the LME price was 3,035, and the ratio was 5.77. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.50, with a profit of - 5,619.46 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,040, the LME price was 2,819, and the ratio was 7.46; the domestic three - month price was 21,170, the LME price was 2,811, and the ratio was 7.51. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.37, with a profit of - 2,543.81 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123,400, the LME price was 14,999, and the ratio was 8.23. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.19, with a profit of - 1,318.15 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,125, the LME price was 1,971, and the ratio was 8.69; the domestic three - month price was 17,490, the LME price was 2,008, and the ratio was 11.08. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.82, with a profit of - 250.04 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 24, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 690, 620, 600, and 570 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 529, 956, 1392, and 1828 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 360, 385, 420, and 445, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 451, and 570 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 150, 155, 145, and 150, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 333, 450, and 567 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 405, 330, 290, and 315, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 318, 424, and 531 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 260, 450, 670, and 930 [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was - 790, and the theoretical spread was 5827 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 90 and 600, and the theoretical spreads were 397 and 971 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 115 and 245, and the theoretical spreads were 195 and 325 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 35 and 440, and the theoretical spreads were 161 and 275 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 24, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.84, 4.06, 4.92, 0.95, 1.21, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.58, 3.78, 5.38, 0.95, 1.42, and 0.67 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are decent, and keep an eye on terminal demand. In the long run, hold at low prices [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to wait and see or consider short - selling LME zinc. For the internal - external spread, gradually take profits on long internal - short external spreads and watch for far - month reverse spreads. For the monthly spread, pay attention to the positive spread between December and February [2]. - For nickel, with a weak short - term real - world fundamental situation, it is advisable to wait and see due to ongoing disruptions in the Indonesian mining end and increased short - term macro uncertainties [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - supporting motivation from Indonesian policies [8]. - For lead, expect narrow - range oscillations in the lead price next week between 17,000 - 17,300, and consider positive spreads [10]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systemic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downside. In the long - term, hold near the cost line on dips [12]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [13]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong with a de - stocking trend. In the long - term, the elasticity of demand, especially with the increasing proportion of energy storage, is the key variable for a pattern reversal [14]. Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 20, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 199, and there were various changes in inventory and import profitability indicators [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is influenced by tariff negotiations. Fundamentally, smelting production cuts are higher than expected, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. Downstream price - fixing quantities and purchasing sentiment are acceptable, and the psychological price - fixing level has risen. Copper cable and aluminum cable starts have diverged [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices increased by 60, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, and there were changes in inventory and premium indicators [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Production capacity is flat. Demand from photovoltaic components has stabilized. There was seasonal inventory accumulation during the holiday and significant post - holiday de - stocking. The global economic recovery and Fed rate - cut expectations coexist with Sino - US trade uncertainties, leading to a divergence in internal and external market trends [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 20, and there were changes in prices, inventory, and import profitability indicators. The LME C - 3M decreased by 113, and LME inventory decreased by 600 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price oscillated this week. On the supply side, domestic TC decreased, and imported TC increased. The domestic ore supply will be tighter from Q4 this year to Q1 next year, while overseas ore supply increased significantly in Q2. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas European demand is average. The domestic social inventory oscillated, and the LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100, and there were changes in import profitability and LME - related indicators [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating both domestically and overseas [4]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled sheets, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Steel mills' production in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. Demand is mainly from rigid needs. Costs of ferronickel and ferrochrome are stable. Inventory remains at a high level [8]. Lead - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 10, and there were changes in price spreads, inventory, and import profitability indicators [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The lead price oscillated slightly at a high level this week. On the supply side, scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production is expected to increase in October. On the demand side, battery production increased this week, but there is an expectation of weakening demand after the National Day holiday [10]. Tin - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the tin position decreased by 47, the LME C - 3M increased by 45, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The tin price oscillated this week. On the supply side, the processing fee for tin ore is at a low level, and supply is gradually recovering. On the demand side, the solder market warmed up slightly during the peak season, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased by 220, and the basis of 553 in East China and Tianjin also decreased by 220. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 367 [13]. - **Market Analysis**: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The overall supply of industrial silicon will decline in the dry season, but considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply - demand balance in Q4 is slightly loose [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 450, the basis of the main contract decreased by 2370, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 260 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate price oscillated strongly this week. On the raw material side, the ore market is firm, and spot supply is tight. On the lithium salt side, consumption and de - stocking are better than expected [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the content Summary by Category Macro - On October 23, 2025, the spot price of IF was 4606 with a change of 13, the basis was 26, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.62 [2] - The spot price of IH was 3027 with a change of 17, the basis was 3, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.34 [2] - The spot price of IC was 7143 with a change of 15, the basis was 103, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.84 [2] Black - For Shanghai's rebar on October 23, 2025, the spot price was 3220 with a change of 10, the basis was 149, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.78 [3] - Beijing's rebar had a spot price of 3200 with a change of -10, the basis was 129, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.06 [3] - Shanghai's hot - rolled coil had a spot price of 3300 with no change, the basis was 44, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.70 [3] - Shandong's ore had a spot price of 831 with a change of 3, the basis was 54, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.45 [3] - Tianjin Port's coke had a spot price of 1656 with no change, the basis was -112, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.69 [3] - Port warehouse receipts of coking coal had a spot price of 1614 with a change of 36, the basis was 355, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.70 [3] - Qinhuangdao Port's thermal coal had a spot price of 767 with a change of 3, the basis was -34, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.17 [3] - Shahe's low - price glass had a spot price of 1104 with no change, the basis was -4, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.01 [3] - Hubei's low - price glass had a spot price of 1070 with no change, the basis was -38, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.00 [3] - Yinchuan's ferrosilicon had a spot price of 5580 with no change, the basis was -114, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.80 [3] - Inner Mongolia's ferromanganese had a spot price of 6050 with no change, the basis was 162, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.57 [3] Energy and Chemicals - Port methanol on October 23, 2025, had a spot price of 2250 with no change, the basis was -42, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.88 [3] - Henan's methanol had a spot price of 2350 with a change of 25, the basis was 58, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.24 [3] - Southern Shandong's methanol had a spot price of 2485 with no change, the basis was 193, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.43 [3] - Hebei's methanol had a spot price of 2785 with no change, the basis was 493, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.97 [3] - East China's PTA had a spot price of 4423 with a change of 29, the basis was -85, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.87 [3] - East China's PP had a spot price of 6560 with a change of 40, the basis was -131, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.93 [3] - North China's LLDPE had a spot price of 6920 with a change of 60, the basis was -79, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.40 [3] - High - end PVC had a spot price of 4625 with a change of 5, the basis was -90, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.64 [3] - Low - end PVC had a spot price of 4555 with a change of 5, the basis was -160, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.72 [3] - East China's asphalt had a spot price of 3500 with no change, the basis was 223, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.30 [3] - Shandong's asphalt had a spot price of 3330 with a change of 20, the basis was 133, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.10 [3] - South China's asphalt had a spot price of 3500 with no change, the basis was 223, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.56 [3] - Domestic ethylene glycol had a spot price of 4185 with a change of 55, the basis was 90, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.84 [3] - Soda ash had a spot price of 1150 with a change of 20, the basis was -85, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.62 [3] - Shandong's pulp had a spot price of 5000 with a change of 5, the basis was -250, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.92 [3] - East China's staple fiber had a spot price of 6150 with a change of 30, the basis was -10, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was -0.22 [3] - Urea had a spot price of 1490 with no change, the basis was -148, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.95 [3] - Shanghai's natural rubber had a spot price of 14880 with a change of 80, the basis was -365, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.64 [3] - Whole latex natural rubber had a spot price of 14545 with a change of 95, the basis was -700, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.56 [3] - Qingdao's 20 - number rubber had a spot price of 1830 with a change of 5, the basis was 606, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.93 [3] - Styrene had a spot price of 6560 with no change, the basis was 15, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.81 [3] Non - ferrous - On October 23, 2025, copper had a spot price of 85500 with a change of 520, the basis was 20, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.07 [4] - International copper had a spot price of 75695 with a change of 670, the basis was -965, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.35 [4] - Aluminum had a spot price of 21040 with a change of 60, the basis was -10, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.12 [4] - Zinc had a spot price of 22100 with a change of 200, the basis was -60, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.82 [4] - Lead had a spot price of 17125 with a change of 125, the basis was -205, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.36 [4] - Nickel had a spot price of 121300 with a change of 50, the basis was 400, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.76 [4] - Tin had a spot price of 280000 with a change of -1000, the basis was -1230, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.67 [4] Agricultural Products - On October 23, 2025, 43% soybean meal in Jiangsu had a spot price of 2910 with a change of 50, the basis was -28, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.09 [5] - First - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu had a spot price of 8410 with a change of -70, the basis was 222, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.20 [5] - 36% rapeseed meal in Guangdong had a spot price of 2470 with a change of 30, the basis was 131, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.88 [5] - Rapeseed oil at the market average price had a spot price of 10283 with a change of -100, the basis was 526, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.99 [5] - 24° palm oil in Guangzhou had a spot price of 9000 with a change of -140, the basis was -132, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.97 [5] - National cotton had a spot price of 14575 with a change of 15, the basis was 1000, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.53 [5] - Guangxi's sugar had a spot price of 5750 with no change, the basis was 293, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.02 [5] - Yunnan's sugar had a spot price of 5830 with no change, the basis was 373, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.49 [5] - Fresh eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei had a spot price of 2870 with a change of 90, the basis was -157, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was -0.50 [5] - Fresh eggs in Dalian, Liaoning had a spot price of 2800 with a change of 90, the basis was -227, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was -0.57 [5] - Fresh eggs in Dezhou, Shandong had a spot price of 2650 with no change, the basis was -377, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was -0.70 [5] - Fresh eggs in Shangqiu, Henan had a spot price of 2700 with no change, the basis was -327, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was -0.72 [5] - Beian's soybean had a spot price of 4060 with no change, the basis was -53, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.82 [5] - Jiamusi's soybean had a spot price of 4140 with no change, the basis was 27, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.49 [5] - Changchun's corn had a spot price of 2240 with no change, the basis was 100, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.43 [5] - Weifang's corn had a spot price of 2360 with no change, the basis was 220, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.45 [5] - Changchun's starch had a spot price of 2580 with no change, the basis was 100, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.03 [5] - Weifang's starch had a spot price of 2605 with no change, the basis was 165, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.54 [5] - Pigs in Kaifeng, Henan had a spot price of 11930 with a change of 240, the basis was -270, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.89 [5] - Hebei's jujube had a spot price of 9600 with no change, the basis was -1565, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.68 [5] - Shandong's apples had a spot price of 6400 with no change, the basis was -2430, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.98 [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Price and Production Data - **Coke Prices**: - Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching coke price is 1482.39, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 54.61, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.70% [2] - Hebei quasi - first dry quenching coke price is 1735.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.72% [2] - Shandong quasi - first dry quenching coke price is 1660.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.70% [2] - Jiangsu quasi - first dry quenching coke price is 1700.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.30% [2] - Inner Mongolia second - grade coke price is 1180.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 100.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 30.59% [2] - **Production and Utilization**: - Blast furnace operating rate is 90.33, with a weekly decrease of 0.22, a monthly decrease of 0.02, and a year - on - year increase of 3.22% [2] - Daily average hot metal output is 239.90, with a weekly decrease of 1.05, a monthly decrease of 2.46, and a year - on - year increase of 1.79% [2] - Coking plant capacity utilization rate is 73.99, with a weekly decrease of 0.96, a monthly decrease of 1.36, and a year - on - year increase of 0.20% [2] - Daily average coke output is 51.21, with a weekly decrease of 0.07, a monthly decrease of 0.81, and a year - on - year increase of 0.37% [2] Group 3: Inventory Data - **Inventory Quantities**: - Coking plant inventory is 37.49, with a weekly decrease of 0.10, a monthly decrease of 2.05, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.02% [2] - Port inventory is 200.09, with a weekly increase of 4.94, a monthly increase of 4.03, and a year - on - year increase of 7.47% [2] - Steel mill inventory is 633.16, with a weekly decrease of 6.28, a monthly decrease of 28.15, and a year - on - year increase of 11.46% [2] - **Inventory Days**: - Steel mill inventory days are 11.07, with a weekly decrease of 0.12, a monthly decrease of 0.59, and a year - on - year increase of 2.03% [2] Group 4: Futures Data - **Futures Prices**: - Futures contract 05 price is 1870, with a daily increase of 29.50, a weekly increase of 41.50, a monthly increase of 1.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.29% [2] - Futures contract 09 price is 1960, with a daily increase of 39.00, a weekly increase of 50.50, a monthly increase of 48.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.73% [2] - Futures contract 01 price is 1731, with a daily increase of 34.50, a weekly increase of 48.50, a monthly increase of 4.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.27% [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: - 05 basis is - 98.61, with a daily decrease of 29.50, a weekly decrease of 41.50, a monthly increase of 41.09, and a significant year - on - year change [2] - 09 basis is - 188.61, with a daily decrease of 39.00, a weekly decrease of 50.50, a monthly decrease of 5.91, and a significant year - on - year change [2] - 01 basis is 40.39, with a daily decrease of 34.50, a weekly decrease of 48.50, a monthly increase of 38.09, and a significant year - on - year change [2] - 5 - 9 spread is - 139.00, with a daily increase of 5.00, a weekly increase of 7.00, a monthly increase of 3.00, and a significant year - on - year change [2] - 9 - 1 spread is - 90.00, with a daily decrease of 9.50, a weekly decrease of 9.00, a monthly decrease of 47.00, and a significant year - on - year change [2] - 1 - 5 spread is 229.00, with a daily increase of 4.50, a weekly increase of 2.00, a monthly increase of 44.00, and a significant year - on - year change [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor, with Iranian plant shutdowns slower than expected. High imports are expected in November, and it's difficult to resolve the contradictions for the 01 contract. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland areas. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it doesn't affect profits [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical producers are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, and downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new devices in 2025 [6]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral, and prices in Europe and the US are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly in the future. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, northwest devices have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and export continuity in Q4. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2280 to 2248, and the import profit decreased from - 10 to - 42 [2]. - **Analysis**: The current situation is poor, with high imports expected in November. It's difficult to resolve the 01 contract contradictions, and inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland areas [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 780. The price of North China LL increased from 6830 to 6920, and the import profit remained around - 120 - 128 [6]. - **Analysis**: Inventory is neutral, the basis is stable, import profit is stable, and domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6000 - 6150. The price of East China PP increased from 6485 to 6525, and the export profit increased from - 15 to - 11 [6]. - **Analysis**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is stable, import profit is stable, and exports are good. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and attention should be paid to exports and PDH device overhauls [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2400 - 2450. The price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4660 - 4680, and the basis remained at - 90 [6]. - **Analysis**: The basis is stable, downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export continuity [6].