废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/15 日期 华东 华北 中部 华南 东北 西南 2025/09/08 2231 2326 2066 2261 2285 2148 2025/09/09 2237 2331 2071 2269 2285 2152 2025/09/10 2238 2331 2070 2266 2285 2153 2025/09/11 2241 2330 2071 2267 2285 2152 2025/09/12 2241 2329 2072 2261 2285 2150 环比 0 -1 1 -6 0 -2 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲 ...

Report Overview - The report provides overnight market information on oilseeds and oils, including data from USDA reports, export figures, and news on biodiesel projects [1]. - It also presents spot prices of various oilseeds and oils from September 8 - 12, 2025 [2]. USDA Oilseed Report Highlights Rapeseed - Global 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to reach 9096.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 523.5 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 1137.4 million tons, up 101 million tons [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed oil production is expected to be 3469.9 million tons, up 59.8 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 312.2 million tons, down 8.8 million tons [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed meal production is expected to be 4958.2 million tons, up 57.3 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 157.9 million tons, up 19.8 million tons [1]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed exports are expected to be 670 million tons, down 263.5 million tons; rapeseed oil exports are expected to be 337.5 million tons, up 3.5 million tons; rapeseed meal exports are expected to be 550 million tons, down 29.9 million tons [1]. Palm Oil - Global 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 8081.6 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 palm oil ending stocks are expected to be 1524 million tons, up 20.6 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 palm oil exports are expected to be 4570.8 million tons, a downward revision of 45.5 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 2400 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate; Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 1610 million tons, also unchanged [1]. Soybean - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 175 million tons, the same as the August estimate; exports are estimated at 112 million tons, unchanged from August [1]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 48.5 million tons, the same as in August; exports are estimated at 6 million tons, up from 5.8 million tons in August [1]. - China's 2025/26 soybean imports are estimated at 112 million tons, the same as the August estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 425.87 million tons, down from 426.39 million tons in August; ending stocks are estimated at 123.99 million tons, down from 124.9 million tons in August [1]. Other Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10, 2025, were 244,940 tons, a 27.8% decline from the same period last month [1]. - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil content in biodiesel to 45% (B45) before reaching B50, currently at 40% [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With oil prices falling, the PG spot market is weak, and both civil gas and ether - post carbon four prices have declined. The overall market is expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply from incoming resources and a decline in chemical demand, especially with the drop in PDH, alkylation, and MTBE operating rates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - **Spot Prices**: Civil gas prices in East China are at a low of 4507 (+0), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4550 (-40). Ether - post carbon four is at 4760 (-40). The lowest delivery location is Shandong [1] - **Futures Prices**: The PG main contract fluctuates strongly. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakens to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 month spread is 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread is 62 (+3) [1] - **External Prices**: FEI and CP drop slightly by 2 dollars to 550 and 546 dollars/ton respectively. FEI month - spread is +1, MB month - spread is unchanged, and CP month - spread is -2.5. The internal - external price difference decreases slightly [1] Market Conditions - **Inventory**: Port and factory inventories increase as inbound shipments decrease, outbound shipments increase slightly, but demand narrows [1] - **Demand**: Chemical demand drops. PDH operating rate is 70.49% (-2.61), with some plants resuming, others under maintenance or reducing loads. Alkylation and MTBE operating rates also decline [1] - **Arbitrage and Freight**: The US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Freight rates continue to rise, with the US Gulf - Japan at 155 (+11) and the Middle East - Far East at 82 (+7) [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short - term and continue to decline in the long - term due to new season production increase and cost reduction [3] - Starch prices are expected to be reduced in the short - term to clear inventory and remain bearish in the long - term due to high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [3] - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's high - supply period, and domestic sugar prices face upward pressure with imported sugar arriving [6] - Cotton prices are in a range - bound state, and if there are no major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, with focus on demand changes [9] - Egg prices are affected by factors such as food factory inventory, cold - storage eggs, and seasonal demand, with spot price rebounds being slow and limited [16] - Apple production in the new season may not differ significantly from last year, and consumption is in the off - season with current stable prices, with focus on final production [17] - Pig prices are in a range - bound state, with potential pressure in September, and the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policy expectations [17] Group 3: Summary by Catalog Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, corn prices in different regions showed little change, with the base difference increasing by 5, and starch base difference increasing by 3 and processing profit remaining unchanged [2] - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, new season corn is about to be listed, and demand is weakening, but the decline is limited due to low inventory. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under the influence of increased production and reduced costs. Starch prices are expected to be reduced to clear inventory in the short - term and remain bearish in the long - term [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the spot price in Kunming increased by 5, the base difference increased by 16, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 140 [6] - **Market Analysis**: International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's high - supply period. Domestic sugar prices follow the international trend, with imported sugar arriving and downward - adjusted processed sugar prices, facing upward pressure [6] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton remained unchanged, the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 142, and the spot price of cotton yarn decreased by 10 [9] - **Market Analysis**: Cotton prices are in a range - bound state. If there are no major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and attention should be paid to demand changes [9] Eggs - **Price Data**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, egg prices in some regions increased, and the base difference decreased by 109 [16] - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices were affected by factors such as food factory inventory and cold - storage eggs. In September, prices rebounded due to seasonal demand, but the rebound was limited by high cold - storage egg inventory [16] Apples - **Price Data**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the national inventory decreased by 77,000 tons [17] - **Market Analysis**: Apple production in the new season may not differ significantly from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are currently stable. Attention should be paid to the final production situation [17] Pigs - **Price Data**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, pig prices in some regions showed small changes, and the base difference increased by 15 [17] - **Market Analysis**: Pig prices are in a range - bound state. There is potential pressure in September, and the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policy expectations [17]

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 681.0 0.0 -5.0 -16.0 -174.0 25省终端可用天数 21.9 0.6 1.9 0.9 4.3 秦皇岛5000 589.0 0.0 -10.0 -43.0 -161.0 25省终端供煤 599.7 -4.7 -8.8 -40.3 -23.1 广州港5500 755.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -150.0 北方港库存 2035.0 -5.0 20.0 -58.0 -87.6 鄂尔多斯5500 465.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -155.0 北方锚地船舶 72.0 9.0 10.0 -3.0 -29.0 大同5500 520.0 0.0 0.0 -35.0 -190.0 北方港调入量 154.4 -3.8 -0.9 9.6 -8.0 榆林6000 602.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -197.0 北方港吞吐量 126.3 5.2 -17.0 -12.5 10.0 榆林6200 630.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -195.0 CBCFI海运指数 604.4 25.6 17.2 - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with the restart of devices, TA de - stocking slows down. The polyester shows no unexpected performance, and with new production in the future, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, the processing fee has reached a very low level for a long time, and as PX supply gradually returns, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees [3]. - For MEG, new devices are put into operation earlier than expected, and the valuation is significantly compressed. With the subsequent increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the far - month, port inventory may gradually accumulate, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, the speed of increasing production at the polyester yarn end may slow down due to high finished - product inventory. The staple fiber has a high operating rate due to good spot benefits, with limited inventory pressure, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [4]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Device Changes**: Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device restarted [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA maintenance is over, the operating rate rises, polyester load slightly increases, inventory remains stable, the basis is weak, and the spot processing fee is at a low level. PX domestic operating rate rises, overseas devices restart, PXN remains the same, disproportionation efficiency remains stable while isomerization efficiency weakens, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia remains stable [3]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device restarted, Inner Mongolia Jinyuan's 260,000 - ton device and Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device were under maintenance [4]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based production slightly increases the load, the overall load rises. Overseas, there are both maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals during the week, port inventory slightly accumulates. Downstream inventory levels rise, the basis weakens, and the efficiency ratio shrinks [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: Near - end, Sanfangxiang and Yizheng increased their loads, and the operating rate rose to 94.4% [4]. - **Market Situation**: The production and sales improved compared with the previous period, and inventory slightly decreased. On the demand side, the polyester yarn operating rate remained stable, raw material inventory decreased, finished - product inventory decreased, and the efficiency was weak [4]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, prices of various types of rubber, including US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, etc., showed different degrees of decline. For example, the US - dollar Thai standard rubber spot price decreased from $1,875 to $1,850 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [4]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, prices of raw materials and products such as ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene showed certain fluctuations. For example, the CFR China price of styrene decreased from $878 to $870 on September 11 - 12 [7]. - **Profit Situation**: The domestic profit of styrene remained at a loss, while the domestic profit of EPS increased from 235 to 295 from September 11 - 12 [7].

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/9/15 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/12 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/9/5 | 2025/9/11 | | | | | 2025/9/5 | 2025/9/11 | | 2025/9/12 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1130.0 | 1144.0 | 1144.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 991.0 | 989.0 | 968.0 | -23.0 | -21.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1113.0 | 1147.0 | 1147.0 | 34.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1189.0 | 1185.0 | 1180.0 | -9.0 | -5.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Week39 ship - line average is $1660 (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk), the basis of contract 10 is - 53 points, and the spread between contracts 10 and 12 is - 405.3 points. The spot price has little change today. The price of contract 10 on the disk drops significantly because the spot price breaks through the previous low of the year, indicating the edge of ship - line competition. The valuation space below contract 10 decreases significantly, and position reduction can be considered. The price of contract 12 also drops, and the change in the spread between contracts 10 and 12 is small and relatively reasonable. Currently, the cargo is still in the spot downward period, the ship - line loading rate is not high, and the overall driving force is still downward [2][23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures - For EC2510, the closing price is 1203.8, with a change of - 5.02%, trading volume of 32766, open interest of 49507, and an open - interest change of 2187 [2][23] - For EC2512, the closing price is 1609.1, with a change of - 3.88%, trading volume of 10045, open interest of 19025, and an open - interest change of 1417 [2][23] - For EC2602, the closing price is 1497.4, with a change of - 1.75%, trading volume of 1268, open interest of 6001, and an open - interest change of 59 [2][23] - For EC2604, the closing price is 1242.0, with a change of - 0.32%, trading volume of 919, open interest of 7791, and an open - interest change of 279 [2][23] - For FC2606, the closing price is 1430.6, with a change of - 0.92%, trading volume of 67, and open interest of 963 [2][23] Month - to - Month Spreads - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 is - 405.3, compared to - 406.6 the previous day and - 414.2 the day before the previous day, with a change of 1.3 and a week - on - week change of - 5.0 [2][23] - The spread of FC2512 - 2602 is 111.7, compared to 150.0 the previous day and 155.5 the day before the previous day, with a change of - 38.3 and a week - on - week change of - 61.9 [2][23] Indicators - SCHIS is updated weekly, and on September 8, 2025, it is 1566.46 points, down 11.68% from the previous period and 10.88% from the period before the previous period [2][23] - SCFI (European line) is updated at a certain frequency, and on September 5, 2025, it is $1315/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period and 11.21% from the period before the previous period [2][23] - CCFI is updated at a certain frequency, and on September 5, 2025, it is 1638.77 points, down 2.79% from the previous period and 4.09% from the period before the previous period [2][23] - NCFI is updated at a certain frequency, and on September 5, 2025, it is 855.93 points, down 7.92% from the previous period and 14.23% from the period before the previous period [2][23] Recent European Line Quotations - Week37: The average quotation is $2100 (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk). Among them, MSK quotes $1900 (later raised to $1950), PA quotes $2100 - 2150, and OA quotes $2100 - 2300 [2][23] - Week38: The average quotation is $1800 (equivalent to 1260 points on the disk). Among them, MSK quotes $1700 (later raised to $1760), PA & MSC quote $1800 - 1950, and OA quotes $1650 - 2020 [2][23] - Week39: The average quotation is $1660 (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk). Among them, MSK quotes $1550, PA's quotation drops to $1600 - 1700, and OA quotes $1650 - 1700 [2][23] Related News - On September 11, a Hamas spokesman stated that the cease - fire conditions in Gaza remain unchanged, and the US and Israel are conspiring to undermine the negotiation process - On September 12, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approved a plan to build 3401 housing units in the "E1 area" between the Jewish settlement of Ma'ale Adumim in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Netanyahu declared that the eastern border of Israel will be the Jordan Valley, not Ma'ale Adumim, and that "everything starting in Gaza will end in Gaza, and we will defeat Hamas, and the Palestinian state will cease to exist." The expansion of Jewish settlements in the "E1 area" will divide the West Bank into two north - south regions, preventing the Palestinian areas of East Jerusalem, Bethlehem, and Ramallah from being connected, and creating a continuous Jewish community between Jerusalem and Ma'ale Adumim. This plan has been opposed by the international community and has also sparked intense controversy within Israel [2][23]

Group 1: Volatility Index Introduction - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the implied volatility of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility: a larger difference indicates that the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, and a smaller difference means the opposite [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility Quantile Ranking - The historical volatility quantile ranking of 50ETF is 0.81 [7] - The historical volatility quantile ranking of 300 Index is 0.79 [5] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Difference Graph Explanation - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of the implied volatility of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [8] - The volatility spread refers to the implied volatility index minus the historical volatility [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Methanol trading follows the logic of port pressure being transmitted to the inland. Although there is seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment in the inland later, the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. The current price on the futures market is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. It's not advisable to bottom - fish yet, and attention should be paid to import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian methanol and unplanned maintenance [2]. - For polyethylene, the overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increment for now. The domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - Polypropylene inventory shows upstream and mid - stream destocking. The basis is - 60, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. The import profit is around - 700, and the export situation is good. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly, and the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure under the background of over - capacity. The supply pressure can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls [7]. - For PVC, the basis remains stable. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weak, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. The current static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, and attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From September 5th to 11th, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of methanol in different regions showed certain fluctuations, and the import profit and other indicators also changed slightly. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased by 10 from September 10th to 11th [2]. - **Viewpoint**: The trading logic is the port pressure transmission to the inland. The inland has seasonal and new device stocking demand, but the port's reverse flow will impact the inland. The current valuation, inventory, and driving forces are not ideal for bottom - fishing [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From September 5th to 11th, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 840. The prices of different types of polyethylene in different regions had minor changes, and the import profit and other indicators also showed some adjustments. The two - oil inventory remained at 67, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2695 from September 10th to 11th [6]. - **Viewpoint**: The overall inventory is neutral. The import profit is around - 200. The domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From September 5th to 11th, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6540 to 6680. The prices of polypropylene in different regions and other related indicators had certain fluctuations. The two - oil inventory remained at 67, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. - **Viewpoint**: The inventory shows upstream and mid - stream destocking. The basis is - 60, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. The import profit is around - 700, and the export is good. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly, and the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From September 5th to 11th, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2400 on September 8th - 11th, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased by 5 from September 10th to 11th. The prices of PVC in different regions and other related indicators had minor changes [7]. - **Viewpoint**: The basis remains stable. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weak, and the mid - upstream inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, as well as factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [7].