农产品早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/19 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/09/12 | 2230 | 2260 | 2270 | 2430 | 63 | 40 321 | 2800 | 2850 | 231 | -27 | | 2025/09/15 | 2230 | 2260 | 2264 | 2420 | 93 | 30 270 | 2750 | 2850 | 262 | -27 | | 2025/09/16 | - | 2260 | 2264 | 2420 | 94 | 30 295 | 2750 | 2850 | 262 | -26 | | 2025/09/17 | - | 2240 | 2264 | 2420 | 79 | ...

Group 1: Coal Price Information - The latest price of Qinhuangdao 5500 is 696.0, with a daily change of 6.0, a weekly change of 15.0, a monthly change of -6.0, and an annual change of -164.0 [1] - The latest price of Qinhuangdao 5000 is 605.0, with a daily change of 7.0, a weekly change of 16.0, a monthly change of -28.0, and an annual change of -155.0 [1] - The latest price of Guangzhou Port 5500 is 760.0, with a daily change of 0.0, a weekly change of 5.0, a monthly change of -5.0, and an annual change of -150.0 [1] - The latest price of Ordos 5500 is 495.0, with a daily change of 5.0, a weekly change of 30.0, a monthly change of 5.0, and an annual change of -125.0 [1] - The latest price of Datong 5500 is 555.0, with a daily change of 5.0, a weekly change of 35.0, a monthly change of -5.0, and an annual change of -155.0 [1] - The latest price of Yulin 6000 is 622.0, with a daily change of 5.0, a weekly change of 20.0, a monthly change of 0.0, and an annual change of -193.0 [1] - The latest price of Yulin 6200 is 650.0, with a daily change of 5.0, a weekly change of 20.0, a monthly change of 0.0, and an annual change of -192.0 [1] Group 2: Terminal and Inventory Information - The 25 - province terminal available days are 22.3, with a daily change of 0.5, a weekly change of 2.4, a monthly change of 1.4, and an annual change of 4.7 [1] - The 25 - province terminal coal supply is 585.2, with a daily change of -2.6, a weekly change of -23.3, a monthly change of -54.8, and an annual change of -37.6 [1] - The 25 - province terminal daily consumption is 553.4, with a daily change of -10.8, a weekly change of -89.8, a monthly change of -92.6, and an annual change of -101.0 [1] - The 25 - province terminal inventory is 12333.3, with a daily change of 27.2, a weekly change of -487.2, a monthly change of -1171.2, and an annual change of 815.8 [1] Group 3: Northern Port Information - The northern port inventory is 2069.0, with a daily change of 27.0, a weekly change of 29.0, a monthly change of 0.0, and an annual change of -35.0 [1] - The number of northern anchored ships is 86.0, with a daily change of 5.0, a weekly change of 23.0, a monthly change of 16.0, and an annual change of -8.0 [1] - The northern port inbound volume is 153.0, with a daily change of -7.4, a weekly change of -5.2, a monthly change of -11.1, and an annual change of 0.0 [1] - The northern port throughput is 156.7, with a daily change of 3.3, a weekly change of 35.6, a monthly change of -11.5, and an annual change of -5.2 [1] Group 4: Shipping Index and Freight Information - The CBCFI shipping index is 692.1, with a daily change of 0.8, a weekly change of 113.3, a monthly change of -50.6, and an annual change of 42.8 [1] - The freight from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai (4 - 5DWT) is 27.3, with a daily change of 0.4, a weekly change of 6.2, a monthly change of -2.6, and an annual change of 2.9 [1] - The freight from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou (5 - 6DWT) is 38.7, with a daily change of 0.5, a weekly change of 4.3, a monthly change of -6.8, and an annual change of 2.4 [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 19, 2025 [2] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the main contract was 11,415, down 175 from the previous day and 240 from the previous week. The open interest of the main contract was 74,503, an increase of 7,604 from the previous day and 52,260 from the previous week. The trading volume of the main contract was 116,114, an increase of 42,925 from the previous day and 53,914 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of butadiene rubber was 135, up 40 from the previous week. The 8 - 9 month spread was 165, up 100 from the previous week. The 9 - 10 month spread was 145, down 5 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [3]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, down 150 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. The Chuanhua market price was 11,450, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, down 200 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Import/Export**: The spot processing profit was - 264, down 125 from the previous day and 149 from the previous week. The on - screen processing profit was - 399, down 150 from the previous day and 189 from the previous week. The import profit was - 82,873, up 1,455 from the previous day and 1,609 from the previous week. The export profit was 137, up 131 from the previous day and 223 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,425, down 25 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 9,150, down 100 from the previous day and 125 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,250, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Import/Export**: The carbon - four extraction profit was not available. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 56, down 30 from the previous day and 55 from the previous week. The import profit was 250, down 100 from the previous day and 66 from the previous week. The export profit was - 862, up 51 from the previous day [3]. Downstream Products - **Production Profit**: The butadiene styrene rubber (SBR) production profit was 938, down 175 from the previous day and 175 from the previous week. The ABS production profit was - 3, up 92 from the previous week. The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 825, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 28,933, down 7,914 from the previous day and 25,295 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was - 62,203, down 7,894 from the previous day and 52,580 from the previous week. The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,200, down 100 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [3]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The spread between standard and non - standard butadiene rubber was 150, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week. The spread between SBR 1502 and 1712 was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly provides a series of data on asphalt, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spot prices, basis, spreads, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Prices - On September 18, the BU main contract price was 3427, a daily decrease of 18 and a weekly decrease of 23 [4]. - BU06 was 3358, down 12 daily and 12 weekly [4]. - BU09 was 3349, down 13 daily and 71 weekly [4]. - BU12 was 3388, down 16 daily and 11 weekly [4]. - BU03 was 3377, down 1 daily and unchanged weekly [4]. Trading Volume and Position - The trading volume on September 18 was 210,608, an increase of 1,178 daily and a decrease of 12,209 weekly [4]. - The position was 408,756, an increase of 1,203 daily and a decrease of 27,301 weekly [4]. Spot Prices - The Shandong market price was 3,520, unchanged daily and down 20 weekly [4]. - The East China market price was 3,590, down 50 daily and 50 weekly [4]. - The South China market price was 3,490, unchanged daily and down 30 weekly [4]. - The North China market price was 3,660, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly [4]. - The Northeast market price was 3,850, unchanged daily and down 20 weekly [4]. Basis and Monthly Spreads - The Shandong basis was 93, an increase of 18 daily and 3 weekly [4]. - The East China basis was 163, down 32 daily and 27 weekly [4]. - The South China basis was 63, an increase of 18 daily and a decrease of 7 weekly [4]. - The 03 - 06 spread was 19, an increase of 11 daily and 12 weekly [4]. - The 06 - 09 spread was 9 [4]. - The 09 - 12 spread was -39, an increase of 3 daily and a decrease of 60 weekly [4]. - The 12 - 03 spread was 11, down 12 daily and 11 weekly [4]. Spreads and Profits - The asphalt Brent spread was -4, an increase of 27 daily and a decrease of 93 weekly [4]. - The asphalt Ma Rui profit was -71, an increase of 24 daily and a decrease of 84 weekly [4]. - The general refinery comprehensive profit was 384, an increase of 14 daily and a decrease of 76 weekly [4]. - The Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit was 715, an increase of 18 daily and a decrease of 79 weekly [4]. - The import profit (South Korea - East China) was -137, down 44 daily and 36 weekly [4]. - The import profit (Singapore - South China) was -939, unchanged daily and down 16 weekly [4]. Related Prices - The Brent crude oil price was 68.0, down 0.5 daily and up 1.6 weekly [4]. - The Shandong gasoline market price was 7,511, down 9 daily and 36 weekly [4]. - The Shandong diesel market price was 6,468, down 17 daily and 1 weekly [4]. - The Shandong residual oil market price was 3,700, unchanged daily and up 125 weekly [4].

1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 废钢早报 價in 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/19 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 西南 2025/09/125 | 2241 2329 原点 2072 2285 2261 2150 ~ l 隐ዘ 2284 2025/09/15 2242 2329 2071 2260 2152 2286 2025/09/16 2257 2333 2074 2270 2154 2025/09/17 2259 2333 2080 2268 2286 2169 2025/09/18= 译 2258 ~ 2332 原占 2081 2261 版d 2290 2170 ~ 环比 -1 -7 4 -1 1 1 沙钢重三价格 (含税) 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格（不含税） ◆ 2022 ↓ ● 2023 ↓ ● 2025 ◆ 2022 ◆ 2023 ◆ 2024 ◆ 2025 4,200 3,600 3,900 3,300 3,600 3,000 3,300 2,700 3,000 2,400 2,700 2,100 2,400 2,100 1,800 1月 ...

Group 1: Volatility Index Explanation - Financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower [3] Group 2: Volatility Data Graphs - The graphs show the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences of various financial and commodity options, including 300 Index, 50ETF, 1000 Index, 500ETF, silver, gold, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, rubber, iron ore, PTA, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, rebar, zinc, urea, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Volatility Spread Quantiles - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. Volatility spread is the difference between the IV index and HV [5] - The implied volatility quantile rankings are as follows: 300 Index (0.83), 50ETF (0.74), PTA (0.19), etc., and the historical volatility quantile rankings are also presented [6]

研究中心能化团队 2025/09/18 原油成品油早报 | | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/11 | 62.37 | 66.37 | 69.85 | - | 0.36 | -4.00 | -0.02 | 197.93 | 16.76 | 228.19 | 29.47 | | 2025/09/12 | 62.69 | 66.99 | 70.20 | - | 0.45 | -4.30 | -0.02 | 198.54 | 16.40 | 229.00 | 29.19 | | 2025/09/15 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and hard to fall in the third and fourth quarters of this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, short - term fundamentals are acceptable. In a low - inventory situation, hold positions on dips and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern that may further differentiate. Short - term single - side positions can be used as a short - side allocation, and internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to hold [2]. - Nickel has a weak short - term fundamental situation, and geopolitical risks have been alleviated to some extent. Continuous attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. The short - term macro - aspect follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [6]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. - Tin's short - term domestic fundamentals maintain a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term observation is recommended, and long positions can be held near the cost line in the medium - long term [9]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom anchored by seasonal marginal costs [12]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of a seasonal peak season, the monthly balance turns to continuous de - stocking after CATL's production reduction, but the de - stocking amplitude is small. Before the supply - side disturbance is realized, the price has strong downward support in the peak season [14]. Summary by Metal Types Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The fundamentals remained resilient. Domestic social inventories did not accumulate despite increased imported copper arrivals, and downstream production was in the stage of consuming finished - product inventories. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the external - internal positive arbitrage had room. Macro - economically, copper benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - loosening [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to July. Downstream construction improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. Inventories are expected to decline in September [1]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. Smelting production decreased slightly in September due to concentrated maintenance. Overseas mine supply increased more than expected. Domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas European demand was average. The domestic social inventory continued to rise, and the overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and overseas warehouse receipts increased. Geopolitical risks in Indonesia have been alleviated, and attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. Stainless Steel - Supply is expected to gradually resume as northern steel mills are affected by the military parade. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs include stable ferronickel prices and slightly rising ferrochrome prices. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. Supply was expected to be tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons. Demand improved slightly, but inventories were at a high level. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. The supply of raw materials was tight in the short term, and it is expected to gradually increase after October. The demand for solder was limited, and the domestic inventory fluctuated. The LME inventory rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to observe in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium - long term [9]. Industrial Silicon - This week, leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production. Sichuan and Yunnan had stable production. In September and October, supply and demand were in a tight - balance state. In the medium - long term, the industrial silicon capacity was still in significant excess, and prices were expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [12]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's production resumption, the futures market declined significantly in the middle of the week. The contradiction lies in the background of an uncompleted large - scale capacity expansion cycle and a still - surplus static supply - demand pattern, with resource - side compliance disturbances. In the peak season, the monthly balance turns to de - stocking after CATL's production reduction, but the de - stocking amplitude is small [14].

1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/1 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 -57% 2022 2023 2024 2025 / (200) 50 0 数据来源：MYSTEEL 免责 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及 建议内容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信 息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货 交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司 ...

Report Overview - The report is a macro asset market analysis released by the research center's macro team on September 18, 2025, covering global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and trading data of stock index futures and treasury bond futures [2][3] Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of major economies showed different trends. For example, the US 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 4.089 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of 0.060, a one - week change of 0.042, a one - month change of - 0.203, and a one - year change of 0.388 [3] - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: The US 2 - year Treasury bond yield was 3.540 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.020, a one - week change of 0.050, and a one - year change of - 0.210 [3] Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.305 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of 0.14% and a one - month change of - 3.24% [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 7.104 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.14%, a one - week change of - 0.24%, a one - month change of - 1.00%, and a one - year change of - 0.13% [3] Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: The S&P 500 index was 6600.350 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.10%, a one - week change of 1.05%, a one - month change of 3.20%, and a one - year change of 20.64% [3] - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: The emerging economies' stock index was 1347.850 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of 0.59%, a one - week change of 3.09%, a one - month change of 6.98%, and a one - year change of 26.74% [3] Credit Bond Indices - Different credit bond indices, such as the US investment - grade credit bond index (3528.030 on September 17, 2025) and the euro - zone high - yield credit bond index (407.110 on September 17, 2025), showed various trends in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The A - share index closed at 3876.34 with a 0.37% increase, the CSI 300 index closed at 4551.02 with a 0.61% increase, etc. [5] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.16 with a 0.07环比 change, and the PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 27.47 with a - 0.03环比 change [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 was - 0.45 with a - 0.06环比 change, and that of the German DAX was 2.52 with a 0.02环比 change [5] Fund Flows - The latest fund flow of A - shares was - 198.10, and the latest fund flow of the CSI 300 was 79.42 [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23767.38, and the latest trading volume of the CSI 300 was 6084.54 [5] Basis and Spread - The basis of IF was 2.18 with a 0.05% spread, the basis of IH was 3.42 with a 0.12% spread, and the basis of IC was - 7.64 with a - 0.11% spread [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 closed at 108.155, 105.890, 107.855, and 105.760 respectively, with increases of 0.18%, 0.13%, 0.18%, and 0.14% [6] - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M in the money market were 1.5536%, 1.5493%, and 1.5540% respectively, with daily changes of 5.00 BP, 5.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [6]