集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਉਲੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 環 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓星 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1604.8 | -0.51% | 137.8 | 151 | | 1695 | | | | EC2602 | | 1822.9 | -0.09% | -80.3 | 24389 | | 30437 | 20 -1412 | | | EC2604 | | 1169.9 | 1 31% | 5/2.7 | 6/62 | | 21197 | -265 | | | EC2606 | | 1374.0 | 4.39% | 368.6 | 984 | | 2350 | 110 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1497.7 | 0.7/8% | 244.9 | 110 | | 1206 | 14 | | | EC2610 | | 1054.7 | 0.51% | ...

玻璃现货：沙河工厂产销较高，沙河贸易商低价950左右，出货一般，期现出货差；湖北省内工厂970左右，成交尚可；湖北中游期现01平水， 成交差 玻璃产销：沙河143，湖北98，华东106，华南108 2025/12/22 2025/12/26 2025/12/29 周度变化 日度变化 2025/12/22 2025/12/26 2025/12/29 周度变化 日度变化 沙河重碱 1130.0 1140.0 1130.0 0.0 -10.0 SA05合 约 1169.0 1200.0 1181.0 12.0 -19.0 华中重碱 1120.0 1120.0 1110.0 -10.0 -10.0 SA01合约 1109.0 1121.0 1107.0 -2.0 -14.0 华南重碱 1350.0 1350.0 1350.0 0.0 0.0 SA09合约 1223.0 1258.0 1247.0 24.0 -11.0 青 海 重 碱 830.0 830.0 830.0 0.0 0.0 SA01沙河基 差 21.0 19.0 23.0 2.0 4.0 华北轻碱 1130.0 1130.0 1130.0 0.0 0.0 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For PTA, the near - term TA partial device has a short - stop, the polyester load drops, the inventory continues to decline, and the basis is stable with the spot processing fee significantly repaired. The PX price has strengthened significantly, but the short - term upward space may be limited, and it is necessary to wait for downstream price pass - through [1]. - For MEG, the domestic supply is stable with a slight increase, overseas maintenance increases, the overall inventory accumulation continues, and the pattern is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the domestic demand is gradually entering the off - season, the spot profit has been significantly compressed, and the further weakening space is limited. Attention should be paid to the warrant situation [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai stage price is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Product Categories PTA - Price and Spread: The average daily trading basis of PTA is 2605(-58). The PX - naphtha spread has strengthened significantly, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits have both increased to a relatively high level, while the US - Asian aromatics spread has shrunk [1]. - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device increased its load, and Dushan's 2.5 million - ton device restarted. Near - end TA partial devices had short - stops, and the start - up rate decreased slightly [1]. - Market Outlook: The downstream filament profit has dropped significantly, and the possibility of accelerated production cuts has increased. Although the long - term pattern has not completely reversed, the probability of falling short of expectations has increased [1]. MEG - Price and Spread: The basis for MEG is around - 140 for the 05 contract. The domestic device load has increased, and overseas maintenance plans have increased [1]. - Device Changes: Zheng Dakai's 600,000 - ton device restarted, and Zhongkun's 600,000 - ton device increased its load [1]. - Market Outlook: The domestic supply is increasing steadily, overseas maintenance is increasing month - on - month, and the overall inventory accumulation continues. The pattern is expected to be weak under new production [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Spread: The spot price is around 6580, and the market basis is around - 100 for the 02 contract [1]. - Device Changes: Sanfangxiang increased its load, and the start - up rate slightly increased to 96.2%. The production and sales improved month - on - month, and the inventory slightly accumulated [1]. - Market Outlook: Although the domestic demand is entering the off - season, the spot profit has been significantly compressed, and the further weakening space is limited due to the relatively low absolute inventory [1]. Natural Rubber - Price and Spread: The prices of various types of natural rubber have changed to different degrees. The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai stage price is stable due to rainfall [1]. - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [1]. Styrene and Related Products - Price and Spread: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related products have changed. The production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS have also changed [1]. - Device Changes: No significant device change information is provided [1]. - Market Outlook: No specific market outlook information for styrene and related products is provided [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The overseas market remains tight with an expected increase in the official price of January CP. Domestically, the domestic - foreign price difference is relatively high, and the basis is relatively low, and the driving force needs further waiting. The profit of PDH is deteriorating, and the maintenance situation in January needs to be observed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data and Information Price Data - **Domestic Civil Gas**: On 2025/12/29, the price in East China was 4380 (-4), in Shandong was 4320 (+50), and in South China was 4510 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4430 (-70). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with the latest basis at 244 (-30) [1] - **Futures Spreads**: The 02 - 03 month spread was 113 (+1), another 02 - 03 month spread was 126 (+13), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -190 (+10). For the inner - plate, the 02 basis was 186 (-95), the 01 - 02 month spread was 117 (-2), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -203 (-3) [1] - **Paper Goods Prices**: As of 9 p.m., the FEI and CP paper goods prices were 523 and 510 respectively, up 2 and 6 US dollars [1] - **1 - Month CP First - Round Recommended Values**: Propane and butane were 505/495 (+10/+10) respectively [1] - **Price Ratios**: PG - CP reached 100 (+1.86), PG - FEI reached 89 (+4.86), FEI - MB reached 185.6 (+10.6), and FEI - CP reached 11 (+3) [1] - **Propane Premiums**: The premium of propane arriving at East China was 4 (+1), and the premiums of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane OB were 18.75 (+5.75), 50 (-1), and 43 (+0) respectively [1] - **FEL - MORI Price Difference**: -14 (up 4 month - on - month) [1] Inventory and Production Data - **Port Inventory**: The arrival rate of ships was 54.83%, and port inventory decreased by 14.3% [1] - **Refinery Data**: The refinery's commercial volume increased by 1.18%, and refinery inventory increased by 0.41% [1] - **PDH Data**: The operating rate of PDH was 76.36% (+1.36 pct) [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Morning Report - Report Date: December 30, 2025 [1] Price Information Ferrosilicon - Latest prices of natural lump ferrosilicon in different regions: Ningxia 72 at 5250, Inner Mongolia 72 at 5270, Qinghai 72 at 5250, Shaanxi 72 at 5220, Shaanxi 75 at 5650 [2] - Latest prices of qualified lump ferrosilicon: Jiangsu 72 at 5700, Tianjin 72 at 5750 [2] - Export prices of ferrosilicon in Tianjin: 72 at 1020 (USD), 75 at 1070 (USD) [2] - Changes in ferrosilicon prices: Some prices have weekly changes, e.g., Ningxia 72 up 30, Inner Mongolia 72 up 20 [2] - Basis, spreads, and price differences: Such as the main - month basis at - 126, 1 - 5 month spread at - 98, etc. [2] Silicomanganese - Latest factory - ex prices in different regions: Inner Mongolia 6517 at 5590, Ningxia 6517 at 5520, Guangxi 6517 at 5700, etc. [2] - Latest trader prices: Ningxia 6517 at 5520, Jiangsu 6517 at 5750 [2] - Changes in silicomanganese prices: Some prices have weekly changes, e.g., Inner Mongolia 6517 up 40, Ningxia 6517 down 20 [2] - Basis, spreads, and price differences: Such as the main - month basis at 28, 1 - 5 month spread at - 68, etc. [2] Supply - related Information Ferrosilicon - Production volume and capacity utilization data are presented in long - term trends, including 136 - company monthly production, weekly production of 136 companies (95% capacity), and monthly capacity utilization in different regions [4] Silicomanganese - Weekly production volume data and long - term trends are shown [6] Demand - related Information Ferrosilicon - Data on export prices, import prices, and related demand - side indicators such as steel production forecasts and metal magnesium production are presented in long - term trends [3][4] Silicomanganese - Data on demand in China (in million tons) and related demand - side indicators like steel production forecasts are presented in long - term trends [4][7] Inventory - related Information Ferrosilicon - Inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions, as well as warehouse receipt and effective forecast data, are presented in long - term trends [5] Silicomanganese - Warehouse receipt, effective forecast, and inventory data, as well as inventory average available days in China, are presented in long - term trends [7] Cost - profit - related Information Ferrosilicon - Data on electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials like semi - coke, semi - coke production profit, and ferrosilicon production cost and profit in different regions are presented in long - term trends [5] Silicomanganese - Data on raw material prices such as chemical coke and manganese ore, and silicomanganese production profit in different regions are presented in long - term trends [6][7]

2025/12/30 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1485.59 | 0.00 | -54.61 | -163.84 | -13.49% 高炉开工率 | 84.94 | | 0.01 | -3.04 | -1.38% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1735.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -165.00 | 4.52% 铁水日均产量 | 226.58 | | 0.03 | -8.10 | -0.57% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1660.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -165.00 | -12.63% 盘面05 | 1707.5 | 0.00 | -35.00 | -18.50 | -4.31% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1700.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -165.00 | -12.37% 盘面09 | 1785 | 2.00 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/30 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/23 -440 4777 95805 49543 -1909.24 -498.41 55.0 54.0 13.16 158575 48875 2025/12/24 -465 5208 95805 52222 -2003.83 -422.80 55.0 54.0 19.69 157025 46525 2025/12/25 -500 5373 95805 59083 - 422.09 55.0 54.0 - - - 2025/12/26 -525 6208 111703 58647 - 2945.00 55.0 54.0 - - - 2025/12/29 -435 6790 111703 65878 -1855.70 -146.77 53.0 52.0 31.35 154575 44075 变化 90 582 0 7231 - -3091.77 -2.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available 2. Core Viewpoints - Not available 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the daily spot prices of various steel products from December 23 to 29, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan's rebar prices, as well as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong's hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil prices [1] Output and Inventory - Not available Basis and Spread - Not available

| | | | 冠 | | --- | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/30 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.111 | 4.486 | 3.524 | 2.828 | 3.503 | 3.249 | 0.263 | 3.393 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.045 | 6.156 | 1.854 | - | 4.755 | 4.439 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.456 | 3.715 | 2.114 | 1.151 | 2.2 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Date: December 30, 2025 - Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Price and Inventory Information Coal Prices - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1450.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 50.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and an annual increase of 2.11% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Pick-up Price is 955.00, with a daily decrease of 15.00, a weekly decrease of 15.00, a monthly decrease of 45.00, and an annual increase of 1.60% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Mongolian No. 5 is 1340.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 20.00, a monthly decrease of 80.00, and an annual decrease of 8.22% [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1600.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 20.00, and an annual increase of 10.34% [2] Inventory Levels - The total inventory is 4011.40, with a weekly increase of 77.29, a monthly increase of 290.20, and an annual decrease of 15.69% [2] - The coal mine inventory is 282.90, with a weekly increase of 10.13, a monthly increase of 58.98, and an annual decrease of 17.19% [2] - The port inventory is 286.17, with a weekly decrease of 21.33, a monthly decrease of 5.33, and an annual decrease of 40.26% [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 804.99, with a weekly increase of 10.34, a monthly increase of 7.91, and an annual increase of 6.06% [2] - The coking coking coal inventory is 1036.29, with a weekly decrease of 1.01, a monthly decrease of 1.90, and an annual decrease of 2.44% [2] Coking Indicators - The coking capacity utilization rate is 71.66, with a weekly decrease of 0.39, a monthly decrease of 1.29, and an annual decrease of 1.97% [2] - The coking coke inventory is 85.52, with a weekly decrease of 0.21, a monthly increase of 0.10, and an annual decrease of 0.86% [2] Futures Market - The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 1108.50, with a daily increase of 6.50, a weekly decrease of 16.50, a monthly decrease of 55.50, and an annual decrease of 2.72% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 09 is 1188.00, with a daily increase of 12.00, a weekly decrease of 11.50, a monthly decrease of 47.00, and an annual decrease of 2.06% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 01 is 1016.00, with a daily decrease of 1.00, a weekly decrease of 18.50, a monthly decrease of 60.50, and an annual increase of 0.44% [2] - The 05 basis is -120.22, with a daily decrease of 78.91, a weekly decrease of 21.43, a monthly decrease of 39.90, and an annual decrease of 75.90 [2] - The 09 basis is -199.72, with a daily decrease of 84.41, a weekly decrease of 26.43, a monthly decrease of 48.40, and an annual increase of 0.70 [2] - The 01 basis is -27.72, with a daily decrease of 71.41, a weekly decrease of 19.43, a monthly decrease of 34.90, and an annual decrease of 1.33 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is -79.50, with a daily decrease of 5.50, a weekly decrease of 5.00, a monthly decrease of 8.50, and an annual increase of 0.08 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is 172.00, with a daily increase of 13.00, a weekly increase of 7.00, a monthly increase of 13.50, and an annual decrease of 0.15 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is -92.50, with a daily decrease of 7.50, a weekly decrease of 2.00, a monthly decrease of 5.00, and an annual decrease of 0.28 [2]