Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and declined mainly due to the drop in oil prices and the weak basis of PG. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG), and the March - April spread was -303 (-9). The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1035 to 6902 lots, with Wuchan Zhongda adding 1000 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30) [1]. - The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated. The internal - external spread weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6). The FEI - MB spread was 185.6 (+16.6), and the FEI - CP spread was 10 (+13). Freight rates rose. The actual landed cost fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased [1]. - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week. Although the temperature warmed slightly this week but remained low, the rigid demand for combustion was acceptable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will actively discharge inventory [1]. - Overall, the domestic basis remains weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the price of civil LPG may not have much room to fall during the pre - festival inventory discharge; the March - April spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market remains tight in the short term, with high freight rates. Geopolitical factors and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Price Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/02 | 4870 | 4428 | 4480 | 616 | 540 | 526 | 4250 | 7150 | -40 | 373 | | 2026/02/03 | 4860 | 4428 | 4480 | 613 | 532 | 524 | 4240 | 7130 | -22 | 334 | | 2026/02/04 | 4845 | 4428 | 4470 | 624 | 560 | 535 | 4250 | 7200 | -125 | 277 | | 2026/02/05 | 4845 | 4446 | 4470 | 634 | 573 | 536 | 4250 | 7230 | -198 | 373 | | 2026/02/06 | 4835 | 4475 | 4440 | 635 | 569 | 532 | 4240 | 7230 | -213 | 317 | | Daily Change | -10 | 29 | -30 | 1 | -4 | -4 | -10 | 0 | -15 | -56 | Capacity and Demand Data - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94% [1]. - Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week [1].

【行情分析】： 农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/09 玉米/淀粉 玉米 淀粉 日期 长春 锦州 潍坊 蛇口 基差 贸易利润 进口盈亏 黑龙江 潍坊 基差 加工利润 2026/02/02 2180 2280 2300 2420 19 10 294 2750 2820 182 -78 2026/02/03 2180 2270 2288 2410 3 10 295 2750 2820 186 -70 2026/02/04 2180 2270 2288 2410 7 10 289 2750 2820 185 -83 2026/02/05 2180 2280 2288 2410 16 0 288 2750 2820 178 -83 2026/02/06 2180 2280 2288 2410 6 10 272 2750 2820 155 -83 变化 0 0 0 0 -10 10 -16 0 0 -23 0 玉米：临近春节假期，市场成交逐步转淡，贸易行为预计在下周逐步结束。短期看，市场流通粮源逐步减少的情况下，下游节前补库将继续对 玉米价格形成支撑，预计节前现货难有大涨大跌行情出现，价格震荡运行。中长期 ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 701.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 -59.0 25省终端可用天数 20.4 -0.1 0.5 -0.5 2.8 秦皇岛5000 616.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 -54.0 25省终端供煤 604.0 -2.8 -4.5 -36.0 -18.8 广州港5500 795.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -55.0 北方港库存 2316.0 51.0 13.0 -222.0 -166.9 鄂尔多斯5500 500.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 -30.0 北方锚地船舶 91.0 4.0 6.0 18.0 44.0 大同5500 555.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 -65.0 北方港调入量 142.7 4.7 12.6 20.6 -2.2 榆林6000 670.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -27.0 北方港吞吐量 161.9 5.0 10.7 27.1 71.3 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 CBCFI海运指数 512.9 -8.9 -101.8 -109.8 40.4 25省终端日耗 ...

研究中心能化团队 2026/2/9 80000 60000 10000 40000 8000 20000 6000 合约收费 BD | 尔 | 尔 | BR价格结构 丁-BR基差 IIII 14000 1200 1000 13500 800 13000 600 12500 400 12000 200 0 11500 7/1 5/1 6/1 -200 11000 -400 10500 -600 现货 01号约 03台约 04台约 05台约 02台约 -800 -- 2/6 -- 2/5 -- 2/4 -- 1/30 --- 1/30 --- 1/7 2023 -2024 · 2026 2025 苯-BR基差 BR03-04 合成橡胶早报 jis | 品种 | 类别 | 指标 | 1/8 | 2/2 | 2/4 | 2/5 | 2/6 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约收盘价 | 12195 | 12900 | 13315 | 12855 | 12790 | -65 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The report presents daily volatility data including implied volatility indices, historical volatility, and their spreads for various financial and commodity options. It also shows the implied volatility quantile data and historical volatility quantile ranking for some products [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighted average of the IVs of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [3]. - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher than HV, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower [3]. Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a product's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low [5]. - The volatility spread is related to the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5]. Data Display - There are charts showing the trends of IV, HV, and IV - HV spreads for various products such as 300股指, 50ETF, 1000股指, etc., from 2024 to 2026. Also, there is a chart presenting the implied volatility quantile data and historical volatility quantile ranking for products like PTA, 500ETF, 50ETF, etc [4][6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded with escalating geopolitical risks. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran persisted. Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran but has not made a final decision to authorize the strike. Israel is on high alert for the possible US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that it will strike Israel and the US if attacked. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a reconciliation tendency. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week. The Dubai monthly spread weakened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits declined. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price pattern in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - As the US and Iran are preparing for diplomatic negotiations, the White House is secretly consulting influential Iranian - American figures to formulate a transition plan for the potential collapse of the current Iranian regime [3] - The oversupply of crude oil is becoming increasingly severe, and Saudi Arabia has lowered crude oil prices for Asian buyers. Saudi Aramco has cut the price of "Arab Light" oil for Asian buyers by 30 cents per barrel, bringing it in line with the March benchmark price in the region. This is the lowest oil price level since the end of 2020 [4] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the US will consider whether to sanction Russia's shadow oil tanker fleet, and further sanctions against Russia depend on the peace negotiations [4] 3.2 Inventory - For the week ending February 21, EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma were 128.2 million barrels (previous value: 147.2 million barrels), EIA crude oil inventories were - 233.2 million barrels (expected: 260.5 million barrels, previous value: 463.3 million barrels), EIA gasoline inventories were 36.9 million barrels (expected: - 84.9 million barrels, previous value: - 15.1 million barrels), EIA refined oil inventories were 390.8 million barrels (expected: - 148.8 million barrels, previous value: - 205.1 million barrels), EIA refinery utilization rate was 86.5% (expected: 84.8%, previous value: 84.9%), and EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories were 0 million barrels (previous value: 0 million barrels) [4] 3.3 Weekly View - Crude oil rebounded this week with rising geopolitical risks. The unstable situation in Iran continued over the weekend. Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran but has not made a final decision. Israel is highly vigilant about possible US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned of retaliation. The Iranian president's willingness to meet protest groups shows a reconciliation tendency. A US strike on Iran could cause oil prices to rise due to geopolitical risks. Fundamentally, oil inventories increased, the Dubai monthly spread weakened after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits declined. The price pattern in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 5th, the LPG night - market followed the oil price decline. The 03 - 04 month - spread was - 295, and the 03 basis was - 91 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas at 4,100). The FEI on the external market rose 4.75 dollars to 537.75, and the CP fell 0.25 dollars to 532.75. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 35 (Shanghai Yuchi + 35) [1] - This week, the futures price fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), the 03 - 04 month - spread was - 294 (-16), - 203 (-8). The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4,418 (+46). There were 5,867 warehouse receipts (-31), with Haiyu Petrochemical decreasing by 31. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI month - spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB month - spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased; the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased [1] - The internal - external spread weakened significantly. The PG - FEI was 37.5 (-17.8), and the PG - CP was 59 (-8). Freight rates increased significantly due to North American cold snaps delaying loading operations and tight supply - demand, along with the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the recent tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB discounts were 19.25 (-16.75), - 15 (-35), 46.89 (-15.6). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (-11) [1] - The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53 pct). Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures. However, the poor downstream profit in China and pre - holiday inventory reduction actions result in weak support for the spot price. Currently, the internal basis is weak, and the month - spread valuation is neutral. Future attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the February cold snap in the US and the development of the Iranian situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Data - From January 30th to February 5th, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as prices of propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - post - carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and the main basis showed different degrees of change [1] 3.2 Daily Viewpoint - On February 5th, the LPG night - market followed the oil price decline. The 03 - 04 month - spread was - 295, the 03 basis was - 91 (using Shanghai civil gas at 4,100 for calculation). The FEI on the external market rose 4.75 dollars to 537.75, the CP fell 0.25 dollars to 532.75, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 35 (Shanghai Yuchi + 35) [1] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the futures price fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances, with changes in the 03 basis, 03 - 04 month - spread, and the price of the cheapest deliverable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 31. The February CP official price met expectations. There were changes in the FEI, CP, and MB month - spreads, the oil - gas ratio, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio [1] - The internal - external spread weakened significantly. Freight rates increased significantly. There were changes in propane discounts in different regions and the FEI - MOPJ spread. The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly, and the PDH operating rate decreased. Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and there are differences in the support for futures and spot prices. The internal basis is weak, the month - spread valuation is neutral, the internal - external valuation is moderately high, and attention should be paid to relevant factors in the future [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report Core View - Not explicitly stated in the given text. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Data - On February 5, the BR主力合约's closing price was 12,855, a daily decrease of 460 and a weekly decrease of 235. The holding volume was 33,340, down 2,762 daily and 20,041 weekly. The trading volume was 311,702, with a daily increase of 88,839 but a weekly decrease of 361,018. The warehouse receipt quantity was 29,170, up 1,180 daily and 850 weekly [3]. - The virtual - real ratio was 6.97 on January 7 and 6.45 on February 4. The cis - butadiene spread was - 205 on February 5, with a daily increase of 260 and a weekly increase of 235. The styrene - butadiene spread was 145 on February 5, also with a daily increase of 260 and a weekly increase of 235 [3]. - The 02 - 03 spread was 230 on February 5, a daily increase of 335 and a weekly increase of 325. The 03 - 04 spread was - 70 on February 5, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 10 [3]. - The RU - BR spread was 3,320 on February 5, a daily increase of 250 and a weekly increase of 350. The NR - BR spread was 280 on February 5, a daily increase of 295 and a weekly increase of 435 [3]. Spot Data - The Shandong market price was 12,650 on February 5, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 300. The Transfar market price was 12,550 on February 5, a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly decrease of 350. The Qilu ex - factory price remained at 13,000 from February 3 - 5, with no daily or weekly change [3]. - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,625 on February 5, with no daily change but a weekly increase of 75. CFR Southeast Asia was 1,825 on February 5, with no daily change but a weekly increase of 40 [3]. Profit Data - The spot processing profit was 21 on February 5, a daily increase of 96 and a weekly increase of 182. The import profit was - 594 on February 5, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 876. The export profit was 1,027 on February 5, a daily increase of 174 and a weekly increase of 527 [3]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Data - The Shandong market price was 10,225 on February 5, a daily decrease of 290 and a weekly decrease of 475. The Jiangsu market price was 10,100 on February 5, a daily decrease of 325 and a weekly decrease of 500. The Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 10,500 from February 3 - 5, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 [3]. - CFR China was 1,270 from February 3 - 5, with no daily or weekly change [3]. Profit Data - The ethylene cracking profit on February 3 was - 24, on February 4 was - 33. The carbon four extraction profit on February 3 was 3,510, on February 4 was 3,392. The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 1,510 on February 5, a daily decrease of 325 and a weekly decrease of 430 [3]. - The import profit was - 12 on February 5, a daily decrease of 325 and a weekly decrease of 491. The export profit was - 607 on February 5, a daily increase of 283 and a weekly increase of 2,512 [3]. - The styrene - butadiene production profit remained at 713 from February 3 - 5, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 125. The ABS production profit was - 424 on February 5, a daily increase of 104 and a weekly increase of 838. The SBS production profit remained at - 1045 from February 3 - 5, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 130 [3].

| 日期 | | 新加坡380cst M1新加坡180cst M1 | 新加坡VLSFO M | 新加坡 GO M1 | 新加坡380cst-Br | 新加坡VLSFO-G | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1 | | ent M1 | O M1 | | 2026/01/30 | 407.65 | 409.34 | 452.99 | 88.58 | -4.13 | -202.50 | | 2026/02/02 | 378.94 | 388.60 | 440.04 | 85.81 | -5.81 | -194.95 | | 2026/02/03 | 377.92 | 382.84 | 441.47 | 84.98 | -5.84 | -187.38 | | 2026/02/04 | 393.37 | 401.93 | 456.15 | 86.75 | -4.96 | -185.80 | | 2026/02/05 | 395.54 | 401.12 | 452.33 | 86.48 | -4.43 | -187.62 | | 变化 | 2. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not explicitly stated in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis and Monthly Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (excluding Jingbo) had a daily change of 42 [3] - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was -60, -124, -9, -11, 11 with a daily change of 22 [3] - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was -30, -74, -20, -61, -39 with a daily change of 22 [3] - The 03 - 06 spread was 23, 9, 5, 2, -3 with a daily change of -5 [3] - The 04 - 06 spread was 7, 8, 8, 8, 10 with a daily change of 2 [3] - The 06 - 09 spread was 25, 27, 19, 23, 22 with a daily change of -1 [3] 3.2. Futures Contract Information - The BU main contract price was 3160, 3424, 3309, 3361, 3339 with a daily change of -22 [3] - The trading volume was 536161, 612629, 303609, 282920, 276075 with a daily change of -6845 (-33) [3] - The open interest was 472199, 422538, 381498, 387150, 383877 with a daily change of -3273 (-3) [3] 3.3. Other Prices - The Brent crude oil price was 61.6, 70.6, 66.1, 67.0, 67.5 with a daily change of 0.6 [3] - The Jingbo price was 3100, 3310, 3260, 3260, 3260 with a daily change of 0 [3] - The Shandong (excluding Jingbo) price was 3060, 3330, 3210, 3250, 3270 with a daily change of 20 [3] - The Zhenjiang warehouse price was 3100, 3300, 3300, 3350, 3350 with a daily change of 0 [3] - The Foshan warehouse price was 3130, 3350, 3250, 3300, 3300 with a daily change of 0 [3] 3.4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 473, 242, 440, 404, 378 with a daily change of -26 [3] 3.5. Weekly Changes - The weekly changes for various indicators were 135, 35, -12, 2, -5, -85, -336554, -38661, 0, -3.1, -50, -60, 50, -50, 136 [6]