電运手机 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/9/19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 雑 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1105.9 | -0.34 | -1105.9 | 19585 | | 47173 | -2436 | | | EC2512 | | 1645.3 | -1.60 | -1645.3 | 9304 | | 20570 | 183 | | | EC2602 | | 1566.1 | -0.80 | -1566.1 | 1549 | | 7215 | 110 | | | EC2604 | | 1255.2 | -2.52 | -1255.2 | 1289 | | 8534 | 200 | | | EC2606 | | 1453.5 | -1.03 | -1453.5 | | 68 | વેરૂર | 12 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 ...

铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/19 | | | | | | 现货 | | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | 普氏62指数 | | 105.60 | -0.30 | -1.45 | | | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 789 | -4 | 2 | | 844.4 | 103.10 | -0.45 | -0.25 | -29.35 | | | | PB粉 | 792 | -3 | 2 | | 840.4 | 105.75 | -0.50 | -0.15 | -10.48 | | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 780 | -4 | 3 | | 851.9 | 102.00 | -0.30 | -0.15 | -5.47 | | | | 金布巴 | 763 | -3 | 5 | | 857.0 | 99.40 | -0.70 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2][11][20] - Report Date: September 19, 2025 [3][12][21] - Report Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3][12][21] 2. Core Data and Changes Futures Contracts - BU main contract: Price on September 18 was 3427, with a daily change of -18 and a weekly change of -23 [4][13][22] - BU06: Price on September 18 was 3358, with a daily change of -12 and a weekly change of -12 [4][13][22] - BU09: Price on September 18 was 3349, with a daily change of -13 and a weekly change of -71 [4][13][22] - BU12: Price on September 18 was 3388, with a daily change of -16 and a weekly change of -11 [4][13][22] - BU03: Price on September 18 was 3377, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 0 [4][13][22] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume: On September 18, it was 210608, with a daily change of 1178 and a weekly change of -12209 [4][13][22] - Open interest: On September 18, it was 408756, with a daily change of 1203 and a weekly change of -27301 [4][13][22] Spot Market Prices - Shandong market price: On September 18, it was 3520, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -20 [4][13][22] - East China market price: On September 18, it was 3590, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of -50 [4][13][22] - South China market price: On September 18, it was 3490, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -30 [4][13][22] - North China market price: On September 18, it was 3660, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 10 [4][13][22] - Northeast market price: On September 18, it was 3850, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -20 [4][13][22] Basis and Calendar Spreads - Shandong basis: On September 18, it was 93, with a daily change of 18 and a weekly change of 3 [4][13][22] - East China basis: On September 18, it was 163, with a daily change of -32 and a weekly change of -27 [4][13][22] - South China basis: On September 18, it was 63, with a daily change of 18 and a weekly change of -7 [4][13][22] - 03 - 06 spread: On September 18, it was 19, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of 12 [4][13][22] - 06 - 09 spread: On September 18, it was 1, with a daily change of -7 and a weekly change of 59 [4][13][22] - 09 - 12 spread: On September 18, it was -39, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -60 [4][13][22] - 12 - 03 spread: On September 18, it was 11, with a daily change of -12 and a weekly change of -11 [4][13][22] Crack Spreads and Profits - Asphalt Brent crack spread: On September 18, it was -4, with a daily change of 27 and a weekly change of -93 [4][13][22] - Asphalt Marrow profit: On September 18, it was -71, with a daily change of 24 and a weekly change of -84 [4][13][22] - Ordinary refinery comprehensive profit: On September 18, it was 384, with a daily change of 14 and a weekly change of -76 [4][13][22] - Marrow - type refinery comprehensive profit: On September 18, it was 715, with a daily change of 18 and a weekly change of -79 [4][13][22] - Import profit (South Korea - East China): On September 18, it was -137, with a daily change of -44 and a weekly change of -36 [4][13][22] - Import profit (Singapore - South China): On September 18, it was -939, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -16 [4][13][22] Related Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil: On September 18, it was 68.0, with a daily change of -0.5 and a weekly change of 1.6 [4][13][22] - Shandong gasoline market price: On September 18, it was 7511, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -36 [4][13][22] - Shandong diesel market price: On September 18, it was 6468, with a daily change of -17 and a weekly change of -1 [5][14][23] - Shandong residue oil market price: On September 18, it was 3660, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -40 [5][14][23]

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/09/12 | 385.00 | 438.60 | -6.46 | 666.83 | -228.23 | 24.22 | 53.60 | | 2025/09/15 | 381.06 | 435.93 | -6.95 | 671.73 | -235.80 | 24.47 | 54.87 | | 2025/09/16 | 385.64 | 443.49 | -7.14 | 686.03 | -242.54 | 25.32 | 57.85 | | ...

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5350 | 0 | 100 | 5650 | 主力合约 | 5756 | -10 | 130 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5350 | 0 | 40 | 5700 | 01合约 | 5744 | 2 | 156 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5370 | 0 | 120 | 5700 | 05合约 | 5850 | 4 | 158 | | | 陕西#72 | 5350 | 0 | 100 | 5650 | 09合约 | 5930 | 10 | 478 | | | 陕西#75 | 5900 | 0 | -50 | | 主力月基差 | -106 | 10 | -30 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏# ...

免责声明: 油 脂 油 料 盘 面 价 差 ： 蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油 脂 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/19 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： Conab预计巴西2025/26年度大豆产量将增加3.6% 巴西国家商品供应公司（Conab）发布对2025/2026作物年度的首份预估，预计大豆产量将较上一年度增加3.6%。 Conab预计巴西2025/26年度大豆产量将触及1.7767亿吨，2024/25年度预计为1.7147亿吨。 同时Conab预测大豆播种面积将扩大3.7%至4,908万公顷，上一年度为4,735万公顷。 Conab表示，巴西2025/26年度玉米产量预计为1.3828亿吨，2024/25年度预计为1.3970亿吨。巴西玉米播种面积预 计为2.263万吨。 Conab：巴西2025/26年度大豆出口料达到创纪录的1.1212亿吨 巴西国家商品供应公司（Conab）发布对2025/2026作物年度的首份预估，预计巴西大豆出口量将达到创纪录的 1.1212亿吨，而上一年度为1.0666亿吨，这主要得益于对中国出口的推动。 "鉴于美国出口预计减少、全球需求增加，再加上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the restart of international TA plants has led to a rise in production, a slight increase in polyester load, stable inventory, weak basis, and low spot processing fees. With the restart of plants, TA de - stocking slows down. Considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and future new production, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, processing fees are at a very low level for a long time, and with the gradual return of PX supply, potential additional maintenance may offer opportunities to expand processing fees [1]. - Regarding MEG, domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based production has a slight increase in load, overall load rises, overseas plants have a mix of maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals this week, port inventory accumulates slightly. Downstream stocking levels rise, and the basis weakens. New MEG plants start production earlier than expected, and valuations are significantly compressed. Future arrivals are expected to increase, and port inventory may gradually accumulate, but current inventory is not high, and valuations may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the production of some plants increases, leading to a rise in overall production. Sales improve, and inventory decreases slightly. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remains stable, raw material stocking decreases, and finished product inventory decreases. Given the high inventory of polyester yarn finished products, the speed of increasing production may slow down. Although the spot profit of staple fiber is good and production remains high, inventory pressure is limited, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. - In the natural rubber market, the national inventory remains stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market data**: From September 12 - 18, 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated slightly, PX prices and processing spreads changed, PTA prices increased slightly, spot processing fees were at a low level, and the average daily trading basis was 2601(-77). The PTA device of Zhongtai Chemical with a capacity of 1.2 million tons was under maintenance [1]. - **Market situation**: International TA plants restarted, production increased, polyester load rose slightly, inventory was stable, basis was weak, and spot processing fees were low. PX domestic production increased, overseas plants restarted, PXN remained stable, disproportionation benefits remained, and isomerization benefits weakened. The price difference between American and Asian aromatics was stable [1]. - **Future outlook**: TA de - stocking slows down. Given the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and future new production, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, processing fees are at a very low level for a long time, and with the gradual return of PX supply, potential additional maintenance may offer opportunities to expand processing fees [1]. MEG - **Market data**: From September 12 - 18, 2025, MEG prices were relatively stable, the basis for 01 was around (+78), and the Xinjiang Tianye plant with a capacity of 600,000 tons restarted [1]. - **Market situation**: Domestic oil - based production was stable, coal - based production had a slight increase in load, overall load rose, overseas plants had a mix of maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals this week, port inventory accumulated slightly, downstream stocking levels rose, and the basis weakened [1]. - **Future outlook**: New MEG plants start production earlier than expected, and valuations are significantly compressed. Future arrivals are expected to increase, and port inventory may gradually accumulate, but current inventory is not high, and valuations may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market data**: From September 1 - 18, 2025, spot prices were around 6462, and the market basis for 10 was around - 40. The production of Sanfangxiang and Yizheng increased, and the overall production rate reached 94.4% [1]. - **Market situation**: Production increased, sales improved, and inventory decreased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking decreased, and finished product inventory decreased. The profit of polyester yarn was weak [1]. - **Future outlook**: Given the high inventory of polyester yarn finished products, the speed of increasing production may slow down. Although the spot profit of staple fiber is good and production remains high, inventory pressure is limited, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. Natural Rubber - **Market data**: From September 1 - 18, 2025, prices of various types of natural rubber fluctuated. For example, the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber decreased, and the price of Thai cup rubber was stable [1]. - **Market situation**: National inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber was stable [1]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [1]. Styrene and Its Derivatives - **Market data**: From September 12 - 18, 2025, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and its downstream products such as EPS, ABS, and PS changed. For example, the price of styrene in some regions decreased, and the production profit of some products also changed [1]. - **Market situation**: The production profit of some styrene - related products changed, and the start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS also showed certain fluctuations [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall LPG market is expected to remain weak. The domestic market has declined significantly, with the basis weakening. The external market prices have risen, and the internal - external price difference has decreased slightly. The chemical demand has declined, and the supply is abundant in Shandong, the cheapest delivery location [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Domestic Prices**: The low - end price in East China is 4462 (-20), in Shandong is 4530 (-10), and in South China is 4610 (+25). The post - ether carbon four is 4700 (+0). The lowest delivery location is East China [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the PG main contract has weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread is 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread is 62 (+3) [1]. External Market and Price Differences - **External Market Prices**: FEI and CP are 553.05 (-6) and 547.55 (-2.45) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI monthly spread has decreased by 1 to - 6 dollars, and the CP monthly spread is - 11 [1]. - **Internal - External Price Differences**: PG - CP is 75 (-3); PG - FEI is 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP is 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [1]. Market Conditions and Demand - **Market Conditions**: The external market prices have risen, and the internal - external price difference has decreased slightly. The freight rates have continued to rise [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand has declined. The PDH operating rate is 70.49% (-2.61), and the operating rates of alkylation and MTBE have also decreased [1]. Inventory and Supply - **Inventory**: Port inventory and factory inventory have both increased. Incoming shipments have decreased, and external shipments have slightly increased, but demand has narrowed [1]. - **Supply**: Shandong, the cheapest delivery location, has abundant supply due to incoming resources [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest price, profit, and inventory data of glass and soda ash, as well as the production and sales situation of glass [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From September 11th to September 18th, the prices of 5mm glass plates from different manufacturers showed various trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 1144 to 1155, and that from Wuhan Changli increased from 1060 to 1100 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: FG05 contract price decreased by 14 from 1342 to 1328 on September 18th compared to September 17th, and FG01 contract price decreased by 26 from 1234 to 1208 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased by 4.1 to 241.2 on September 18th compared to September 17th, while the profit of South China natural - gas glass remained unchanged at - 188.1 [1]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe factories had fair production and sales, but Shahe traders had poor sales at low prices. Hubei factories raised prices and had good transactions, while the middle - stream in Hubei had poor sales [1]. - **Production and Sales Rates**: Shahe's production and sales rate was 108, Hubei's was 95, East China's was 101, and South China's was 100 [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From September 11th to September 18th, the prices of heavy and light soda ash from different regions also changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased by 20 from 1230 to 1210 on September 18th compared to September 17th [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: SA05 contract price decreased by 18 from 1418 to 1400 on September 18th compared to September 17th, and SA01 contract price decreased by 28 from 1334 to 1306 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased by 33.8 to - 144.6 on September 18th compared to September 17th, and the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased by 33.1 to - 119.0 [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: Factory inventories decreased significantly, while delivery warehouse inventories increased significantly, resulting in a slight overall increase in inventory [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for multiple non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on September 19, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79,990 (domestic) and 9,871 (LME) with a ratio of 8.17; March price is 79,650 (domestic) and 9,943 (LME) with a ratio of 8.04. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.10, and the profit is - 357.73 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,020 (domestic) and 2,944 (LME) with a ratio of 7.48; March price is 22,070 (domestic) and 2,920 (LME) with a ratio of 5.86. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.55, and the profit is - 3,166.55 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,780 (domestic) and 2,678 (LME) with a ratio of 7.76; March price is 20,785 (domestic) and 2,673 (LME) with a ratio of 7.79. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.37, and the profit is - 1,631.16 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 120,900 (domestic) and 15,087 (LME) with a ratio of 8.01. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17, and the profit is - 2,181.20 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 17,000 (domestic) and 1,967 (LME) with a ratio of 8.63; March price is 17,175 (domestic) and 2,011 (LME) with a ratio of 10.97. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.81, and the profit is - 359.88 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 980, - 910, - 980, - 1000 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 505, 908, 1319, 1731 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 235, - 210, - 175, - 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 335, 455, 576 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 125, - 125, - 135, - 140 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 332, 449, 565 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are 65, 75, 65, 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, 530 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 680, - 450, - 310, 40 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 220, and the theoretical spread is 5583 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 610 and - 370 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 549 and 848 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 260 and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 201 and 308 [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 100 and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 189 and 302 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper/Zinc, Copper/Aluminum, Copper/Lead, Aluminum/Zinc, Aluminum/Lead, Lead/Zinc**: The Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios are 3.61, 3.83, 4.64, 0.94, 1.21, 0.78 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios are 3.41, 3.70, 4.96, 0.92, 1.34, 0.69 respectively [5]