| | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/11/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | 2025/11/10 2025/11/14 2025/11/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/10 2025/11/14 2025/11/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1113.0 | 1095.0 | 1070.0 | -43.0 | -25.0 | FG05合约 | 1205.0 | 1160.0 | 1165.0 | -40.0 | 5.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1113.0 | 1096.0 | 1053.0 | -60.0 | -43.0 | FG01合约 | 1069.0 | 1032.0 | 1029.0 | -40.0 | -3.0 | | 5mm大板 | | ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - term, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 18, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 18, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86490, the LME spot price was 10779, and the ratio was 8.07; the domestic three - month price was 86450, the LME three - month price was 10812, and the ratio was 8.01. No profit data for spot import and export was provided [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22380, the LME spot price was 3126, and the ratio was 7.16; the domestic three - month price was 22490, the LME three - month price was 3022, and the ratio was 5.76. No profit data for spot import and export was provided [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21620, the LME spot price was 2809, and the ratio was 7.70; the domestic three - month price was 21725, the LME three - month price was 2848, and the ratio was 7.64. No profit data for spot import and export was provided [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120300, the LME spot price was 14616, and the ratio was 8.23. The profit for spot import was - 2326.46 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17200, the LME spot price was 2037, and the ratio was 8.48; the domestic three - month price was 17355, the LME three - month price was 2054, and the ratio was 10.93. No profit data for spot import was provided [3] Cross - Term Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract were - 370, - 370, - 410, and - 410 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 536, 970, 1413, and 1856 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 10, 35, 75, and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 337, 458, and 579 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 75, - 25, 0, and - 5, and the theoretical spreads were 220, 341, 461, and 582 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 120, - 90, - 65, and - 75, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 429, and 537 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 490, - 290, - 60, and 190 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 630, and the theoretical spread was 6008 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 360 and - 10 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 75 and 85 respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 245 and 125 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.84, 3.98, 4.98, 0.97, 1.25, and 0.77 respectively; for LME (three - continuous), they were 3.60, 3.83, 5.29, 0.94, 1.38, and 0.68 respectively [5]

研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/18 | 玉米/淀粉 | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/11 2070 | 2130 2150 | 2300 | -47 | 20 164 | 2700 | 2800 | 165 | 8 | | 2025/11/12 2070 | 2140 2150 | 2310 | -37 | 20 151 | 2700 | 2800 | 165 | -12 | | 2025/11/13 2070 | 2150 2150 | 2320 | -36 | 20 145 | 2700 | 2800 | 148 | -12 | | 2025/11/14 2070 | 2160 2150 | 2330 | -25 | 20 156 | 2700 | 2800 | 150 | 9 | | 2025/11/17 2070 | 2180 ...

、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 830.0 0.0 10.0 77.0 -20.0 25省终端可用天数 25.7 -0.3 5.7 4.8 8.1 秦皇岛5000 737.0 0.0 9.0 75.0 -18.0 25省终端供煤 545.7 -0.4 -62.8 -94.3 -77.1 广州港5500 865.0 0.0 0.0 70.0 -45.0 北方港库存 2394.0 76.0 138.0 179.0 -212.5 鄂尔多斯5500 580.0 0.0 -15.0 75.0 -50.0 北方锚地船舶 127.0 7.0 -1.0 27.0 58.0 大同5500 630.0 0.0 -15.0 75.0 -80.0 北方港调入量 182.2 12.6 9.2 33.6 7.8 榆林6000 722.0 10.0 10.0 70.0 -110.0 北方港吞吐量 135.2 -24.7 -26.6 -29.6 -32.5 榆林6200 750.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - Australian mainstream iron ore prices generally increased, with Newman powder at 790 (up 10 daily and 18 weekly), PB powder at 793 (up 10 daily and 18 weekly), etc [1] - Brazilian mainstream iron ore prices also had mixed trends, with Baha at 830 (up 10 daily and 14 weekly), while Baha coarse IOC6 was at 770 (down 13 daily and 7 weekly) [1] - Other varieties like Ukrainian concentrate powder, 61% Indian powder, etc also had price changes [1] 3.2 Exchange Contracts - For DCE contracts, i2601 was at 788.5 (up 16.0 daily and 23.5 weekly), i2605 at 756.5 (up 13.0 daily and 14.5 weekly), i2609 at 732.0 (up 10.5 daily and 10.0 weekly) [1] - For SGX contracts, FE01 was at 99.51 (down 0.20 daily and up 1.31 weekly), FE05 at 97.15 (down 0.25 daily and up 1.06 weekly), FE09 at 95.09 (down 0.23 daily and up 0.97 weekly) [1] 3.3 Premiums - Information on U - ball/pellet premium, PB block/block ore premium was presented, but specific data was not fully summarized here [1] 3.4 Basis and Spread - The monthly spread and other relevant data for each contract were given, such as the monthly spread of i2601 was - 56.5 (up 48.1 daily and down 5.2 weekly) [1]

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਓਲੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1790.0 | 0.43% | -285.2 | 6881 | | 14520 | -1922 | | | EC2602 | | 1605.0 | -1.65% | -100.2 | 20006 | | 38043 | 7159 | | | EC2604 | | 1157.7 | -1.08% | 347.1 | 2180 | | 15618 | 197 | | | EC2606 | | 1377.9 | -0.20% | 126.9 | 130 | | 1624 | 1 | | | EC2608 | | 1486.7 | 0.24% | 18.1 | ર્ણ | | 1196 | 1 | | | EC2610 | | 1103.5 | -0.68% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The current situation remains poor, with Iran's plant shutdown slower than expected. High imports are expected in November, making it difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. It is anticipated that the port sanctions issue will be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous period, and recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [7]. - Polypropylene: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Draw production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - grade caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2065 to 2060, the South China spot price decreased from 2068 to 2048, and the Northwest discounted - to - futures price decreased from 2603 to 2580. The daily change on November 14 showed a 0 change in power coal futures, a - 17 change in Jiangsu spot price, and a - 25 change in the Northwest discounted - to - futures price [2]. Polyethylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price was mostly stable at 740 (except for November 14 with no data). The North China LL price increased from 6770 to 6830, and the two - oil inventory remained at 12067 on November 14. The daily change on November 14 showed a 40 increase in North China LL price and a 35 increase in import profit [7]. Polypropylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased from 5750 to 5790, the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 695, and the two - oil inventory remained at 14642. The daily change on November 14 showed a 30 increase in Shandong propylene price and a 65 increase in East China PP price [7]. PVC - **Price and Profit Data**: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price was mostly 2400 (except for November 14 with no data), the Shandong caustic soda price remained at 802, and the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price increased from 4570 to 4580. The daily change on November 14 showed a 10 increase in the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price [7].

ગુજ 美国主持 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਉਨ੍ਹੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 意 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1790.0 | 0.43% | -285.2 | 6881 | | 14520 | -1922 | | | EC2602 | | 1605.0 | -1.65% | -100.2 | 20006 | | 38043 | 7-59 | | | EC2604 | | 1157.7 | -1.08% | 347.1 | 2180 | | 15618 | 197 | | | EC2606 | | 1377.9 | -0.20% | 126.9 | 130 | | 1624 | 1 | | | EC2608 | | 1486.7 | 0.24% | 18.1 | 65 | | 1196 | 1 | | 期货 | EC2610 | | 1103.5 | -0 ...

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields in major economies: US 4.149, UK 4.573, France 3.458, Germany 2.719, Italy 3.471, Spain 3.226, Switzerland 0.139, Greece 3.347, Japan 1.705, Brazil 6.222, China 1.806, Australia 4.439, New Zealand 4.165 [2] - 2 - year Treasury yields in major economies: US 3.608, UK 3.840, Germany 2.034, Japan 0.930, Italy 2.230, China (1Y yield) 1.408, Australia 3.693 [2] - Dollar exchange rates against major emerging market currencies: Brazil 5.297, South Africa zar 17.090, Korean won 1451.350, Thai baht 32.400, Malaysian ringgit 4.133 [2] - RMB exchange rates: on - shore 7.099, off - shore 7.099, mid - price 7.083, 12 - month NDF 6.959 [2] - Major stock indices: S&P 500 6734.110, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47147.480, Nasdaq 22900.590, Mexican index 62328.630, UK index 9698.370, France CAC 8170.090, Germany DAX 23876.550, Spanish index 16345.900, Russian index (not available), Nikkei 50376.530, Hang Seng Index 26572.460, Shanghai Composite Index 3990.492, Taiwan index 27397.500, Korean index 4011.570, Indian index 8370.436, Thai index 1269.260, Malaysian index 1625.670, Australian index 8907.002, emerging market index 1385.610 [2] - Credit bond indices: US investment - grade 3514.100, Eurozone investment - grade 265.606, emerging market investment - grade 289.070, US high - yield 2874.380, Eurozone high - yield 407.330, emerging market high - yield 1795.322 [2] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - shares closing price 3990.49, down 0.97%; CSI 300 closing price 4628.14, down 1.57%; SSE 50 closing price 3038.43, down 1.15%; ChiNext closing price 3111.51, down 2.82%; CSI 500 closing price 7235.46, down 1.63% [3] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 14.24 (down 0.17), SSE 50 12.04 (down 0.09), CSI 500 33.03 (down 0.50), S&P 500 28.00 (down 0.01), Germany DAX 18.52 (down 0.19) [3] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.58 (down 0.03), Germany DAX 2.68 (up 0.02) [3] - Fund flow: A - shares latest value - 1241.15, 5 - day average - 612.41; Main board latest value - 876.95, 5 - day average - 423.49; ChiNext latest value - 280.70, 5 - day average - 133.20; CSI 300 latest value - 349.80, 5 - day average - 128.23 [3] - Trading volume: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 19580.79 (down 838.83), CSI 300 4447.20 (down 653.41), SSE 50 1203.76 (down 121.05), SME board 4174.57 (down 85.23), ChiNext 4879.21 (down 350.02) [4] - Main contract basis: IF - 27.74 (- 0.60%), IH - 8.03 (- 0.26%), IC - 98.06 (- 1.36%) [4] Group 3: Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures closing prices: T2303 108.42 (unchanged), TF2303 105.88 (down 0.01%), T2306 108.19 (unchanged), TF2306 105.87 (unchanged) [4] - Funding rates: R001 1.4296% (down 7.00 BP), R007 1.4945% (down 1.00 BP), SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800% (unchanged) [4]

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is an LPG morning report by the energy and chemical team of the research center on November 17, 2025, presenting data from November 10 - 14, 2025 [4] Group 2: Daily Changes - On Friday, for civil LPG, prices were 4364 (-4) in East China, 4400 (+0) in Shandong, and 4460 (-30) in South China; ether - post - carbon four was 4630 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China with a basis of 1 (-43), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 93 (-8). FEI was 502 (-1) and CP was 481 (-1) dollars/ton [4] Group 3: Weekly Views - The PG main contract showed a strong trend. The basis was 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 93 (+21). The cheapest delivery product was civil LPG in East China at 4364 (-10), 4440 (+60) in Shandong, 4460 (+10) in South China; ether - post - carbon four was 4630 (+130) [4] - The overseas paper cargo prices rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly; the month spread strengthened; the domestic - foreign price difference weakened, with PG - CP at 128 (-9) and PG - FEI at 111 (-2) [4] - The discount strengthened. The arrival discount of propane in East China was 78 (+8), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were -2.75 dollars (+3.75), 22 dollars (+13), and 39 dollars (+13) respectively [4] - Freight rates weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -66 (+7). The naphtha crack spread changed little and remained at a relatively high level this year [4] - The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong recovered slightly; the profit of alkylation units deteriorated; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good [4] - Domestic production decreased slightly, arrivals were limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71), with Donghua Zhangjiagang restarted and Juzhengyuan and Haiwei under maintenance and shut - down [4] - Overall, the domestic chemical market is strong, there is an expectation of a strong peak season for civil use, but the futures price is over - valued; the international propane market pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to the weather and cold snaps in the US [4]