数据来源: Mysteel、云沥青、Wind 免责 s 加安期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/16 | | 指标 | 11/13 | 12/9 | 12/11 | 12/12 | 12/15 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | -9 | -43 | -60 | -42 | -23 | -11 | -10 | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 121 | 97 | 20 | 18 | 17 | -1 | -80 | | | 华南县差(佛山库) | 101 | 17 | 0 | -32 | -33 | -1 | -50 | | | 01-03 | -43 | -35 | -28 | -39 | -30 | 9 | 5 | | | 02-03 | -27 | -20 | -13 | -18 | -19 | -1 | | | | 03-06 | -37 | -42 | -39 | -40 | -34 | 6 | 8 | | 用 | BU主力合约 ...

Report Information - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Ferroalloy Morning Report Core Viewpoints - The report presents comprehensive data on the ferroalloy market, including prices, supply, demand, inventory, and cost - profit analysis of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, facilitating investors' understanding of market trends [2][4][5] Summary by Category Price - **Silicon - Iron**: Spot prices vary by region and grade. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon - iron natural block is 5200 yuan, with a daily change of 100 yuan and a weekly change of 100 yuan. Futures prices also show different trends in different contracts. The main contract price is 5518 yuan, with a daily change of 48 yuan and a weekly change of 74 yuan [2] - **Silicon - Manganese**: The ex - factory prices of different regions and grades also fluctuate. For instance, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon - manganese is 5540 yuan, with a daily change of 20 yuan and a weekly change of 10 yuan. The main contract price is 5758 yuan, with a daily change of 28 yuan and a weekly change of 22 yuan [2] Supply - **Silicon - Iron**: The production data of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China shows the overall supply situation. The capacity utilization rates of enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi also vary over time [4] - **Silicon - Manganese**: The weekly production data of silicon - manganese in China reflects the supply dynamics, and the enterprise start - up rate also affects the supply [6] Demand - **Silicon - Iron**: The demand is related to industries such as steel and metal magnesium. The production and price changes of these downstream industries will affect the demand for silicon - iron [4] - **Silicon - Manganese**: The demand is mainly affected by the steel industry. The production and price trends of steel products will influence the demand for silicon - manganese [6][7] Inventory - **Silicon - Iron**: The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including those in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, reflect the inventory situation [5] - **Silicon - Manganese**: The inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China, warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the inventory average available days in China show the inventory status [7] Cost - Profit - **Silicon - Iron**: The cost is mainly affected by electricity prices, raw material prices such as semi - coke. The profit data of different regions, including Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, show the profit situation [5] - **Silicon - Manganese**: The cost is related to the prices of manganese ore and other raw materials. The profit data of different regions, such as Inner Mongolia and Guangxi, reflect the profit status [7]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 4315.85, change is -31.10 [2] - London Silver latest price is 63.87, change is -0.64 [2] - London Platinum latest price is 1774.00, change is 105.00 [2] - London Palladium latest price is 1536.00, change is 65.00 [2] - WTI Crude latest price is 57.44, change is 0.00 [2] - LME Copper latest price is 11684.50, change is -213.50 [2] - Dollar Index latest is 98.40, change is 0.00 [2] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.17, change is 0.00 [2] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.34, change is 0.00 [2] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 155.84, change is 0.00 [2] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 1.93, change is 0.00 [2] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 14101.07, change is 0.00 [2] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 857.81, change is 36.89 [2] - Gold ETF持仓 latest is 1051.68, change is -1.43 [2] - Silver ETF持仓 latest is 16060.60, change is -42.30 [2] - SGE Silver inventory latest is 687.20, change is 0.00 [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 1, change is 0.00 [2] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 1, change is -1.00 [2]

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/16 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/12/09 | 3120 | 3240 | 3280 | 3260 | 3490 | 3360 | | 2025/12/10 | 3170 | 3300 | 3320 | 3260 | 3490 | 3360 | | 2025/12/11 | 3120 | 3250 | 3320 | 3310 | 3480 | 3360 | | 2025/12/12 | 3110 | 3250 | 3280 | 3270 | 3480 | 3350 | | 2025/12/15 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | 上海冷卷 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/16 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/09 110 4266 115035 29531 -838.94 -8.32 40.0 46.0 0.00 165675 63100 2025/12/10 35 4271 115035 28931 -1168.76 -70.55 41.0 48.0 11.69 164975 65400 2025/12/11 5 4282 115035 31461 -1540.94 -17.07 41.0 48.0 24.76 165850 66650 2025/12/12 -15 4927 115035 32563 -1469.82 -364.76 41.0 47.0 20.69 165900 66000 2025/12/15 30 4637 115035 42226 -1177.97 -249.44 42.0 48.0 -4.39 165875 65400 变化 ...

| | | | | | | | 大类资产早报 | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/16 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.174 | 4.495 | 3.564 | 2.852 | 3.571 | 3.299 | 0.271 | 3.447 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 1.952 | 6.150 | 1.854 | - | 4.726 | 4.494 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.503 | 3.746 | 2.149 | 1.062 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending December 11, 2025 was 795,661 tons, falling short of market expectations [1]. - The U.S. soybean crushing volume in November 2025 decreased by 5.1% from the record - high in October, but increased by 11.8% year - on - year [1]. - The NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory at the end of November 2025 reached a seven - month high of 1.513 billion pounds, up 15.9% from October and 39.6% year - on - year [1]. - A private exporter reported a sale of 136,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - Brazil exported 1,650,220.58 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of December 2025, with the daily average export volume increasing by 73% compared to the same period last year [1]. - In the week ending November 20, 2025, the net increase in U.S. soybean export sales was 2.3207 million tons, in line with expectations [1]. - In the same week, the net increase in U.S. soybean meal export sales was 151,400 tons, also in line with expectations [1]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from December 1 - 15, 2025 decreased by 15.9% (ITS data) or 16.4% (AmSpec data) compared to the previous month [1]. - India's palm oil imports in November 2025 increased by about 5% month - on - month, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports declined, leading to a 13.3% month - on - month drop in total edible oil imports [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Overnight Market Information - U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending December 11, 2025 was 795,661 tons, lower than the expected 1 - 1.25 million tons, and 202,043 tons were exported to China, accounting for 25.39% of the total. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year is 13.702208 million tons, compared with 25.252848 million tons in the same period last year [1]. - The U.S. soybean crushing volume in November 2025 was 216.041 million bushels, a 5.1% decrease from October but an 11.8% increase from November 2024. The soybean oil inventory at the end of November reached 1.513 billion pounds, a 15.9% increase from October and a 39.6% increase from the previous year [1]. - A private exporter sold 136,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - Brazil exported 1,650,220.58 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of December 2025, with a daily average of 165,022.06 tons, a 73% increase compared to December last year [1]. Export Sales Data - In the week ending November 20, 2025, U.S. soybean export sales net increased by 2.3207 million tons (expected 0.8 - 3 million tons), with 2.142 million tons sold to China. The export shipment was 763,500 tons, a 51% decrease from the previous week [1]. - In the same week, U.S. soybean meal export sales net increased by 151,400 tons (expected 0.1 - 0.45 million tons), and the export shipment was 336,700 tons, a 19% decrease from the previous week [1]. Palm Oil Export Data - Malaysian palm oil exports from December 1 - 15, 2025 decreased by 15.9% (ITS) or 16.4% (AmSpec) compared to the previous month [1]. Indian Edible Oil Import Data - India's palm oil imports in November 2025 increased by about 5% to 632,341 tons, while soybean oil imports decreased by over 18% to 370,661 tons and sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% to 142,953 tons. Total edible oil imports decreased by 13.3% to 1.15 million tons [1]. Spot Price - The table shows the prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 9 - 15, 2025 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 12 - contract follows the delivery logic. P1 is announced as 1510.56 points (lower than expected), and P2 and P3 are expected to be between 1700 - 1750 points [3]. - The valuation of the 02 - contract is moderately high. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and follow the spot price trend later. The current spot market is strong and recovering. Historically, the freight rate peaks usually occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (corresponding to mid - to late January 2026). However, the high shipping capacity in January 2026 may suppress the peak. At the current valuation, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - The short - term downside space of the 04 - contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when the 04 - contract may rise following the near - month contracts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - **Closing Price and Changes**: EC2512 closed at 1649.8 with a - 0.01% change; EC2602 at 1746.0 with a 4.06% change; EC2604 at 1149.7 with a 3.95% change; EC2606 at 1306.7 with a 3.64% change; EC2608 at 1479.9 with a 3.37% change; EC2610 at 1053.8 with a 2.31% change [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2512 was 274, and the open interest was 2724 with a change of - 223; for EC2602, the trading volume was 28275, and the open interest was 33065 with a change of 1401; for EC2604, the trading volume was 7432, and the open interest was 19657 with a change of - 276; for EC2606, the trading volume was 6/9 (unclear), and the open interest was 2335 with a change of - 20; for EC2608, the trading volume was 402, and the open interest was 1441 with a change of - 114; for EC2610, the trading volume was 1000, and the open interest was 4739 with a change of 157 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: EC2512 - 2504 was 500.1 with a day - on - day change of - 43.9 and a week - on - week change of - 65.6; EC2512 - 2602 was - 96.2 with a day - on - day change of - 68.4 and a week - on - week change of - 144.9; EC2502 - 2604 was 596.3 with a day - on - day change of 24.5 and a week - on - week change of 79.3 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: The SCFIS (European Line) on 2025/12/15 was 1510.56 points with a 0.10% change from the previous period. The SCFI (European Line) on 2025/12/12 was 1538 dollars/TEU with a 9.86% change; the CCFI was 1470.55 points with a 1.59% change; the NCFI was 1064.13 points with a 9.98% change [2]. - **Shipping Company Quotes**: In Week51, MSK opened at 2400 (a 200 increase from the previous week), MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 dollars. The current central price was 1760 dollars, equivalent to about 1760 points on the futures. In Week52, MSK opened at 2300 (a 100 decrease from the previous week), and the other companies mainly followed Week51's quotes. In January, MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 dollars respectively. On Monday, MSC opened at 2864 dollars (a 200 increase from the previous week), equivalent to 2000 points on the futures [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: December 16, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Information**: On December 15, the BR主力合约(12) price was 10,845, up 125 from the previous day and 395 from November 13; the持仓量 was 98,043, an increase of 8,209 from the previous day and 21,634 from November 13; the成交量 was 210,063, up 86,218 from the previous day and 99,018 from November 13; the 仓単数量 remained unchanged at 19,180 from the previous day, with an increase of 1,860 from November 13; the 虚实比 was 25.56, up 2 from the previous day and 4 from November 13 [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 顺丁基差 was -95, down 25 from the previous day and 145 from November 13; the 丁本县差 was 355, down 125 from the previous day and 195 from November 13; the 02 - 03 was -30, down 5 from the previous day and 10 from November 13; the 03 - 04 was -52, down 10 from the previous day and up 20 from November 13; the RU - BR was 4,355, down 152 from the previous day and 180 from November 13; the NR - BR was 1,515, down 95 from the previous day and 115 from November 13 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The 山东市场价 was 10,750, up 100 from the previous day and 250 from November 13; the 传化市场价 was 10,650, up 70 from the previous day and 250 from November 13; the 齐鲁出厂价 remained at 10,600; the CFR东北亚 was 1,325, and the CFR东南亚 was 1,600, both remaining unchanged [4]. - **Profit**: The 现货加工利润 was 451, down 349 from the previous day and 454 from November 13; the 进口利润 was -315, up 100 from the previous day and 264 from November 13; the 出口利润 was 1,291, down 87 from the previous day [4]. Other Related Products - **Butadiene**: The 山东市场价 was 7,940, up 440 from the previous day and 690 from November 13; the 江苏市场价 was 7,600, up 225 from the previous day and 400 from November 13; the 扬子出厂价 was 7,550, up 200 from the previous day and 350 from November 13; the CFR中国 was 870, up 10 from the previous day and 10 from November 13 [4]. - **Profit of Related Products**: The 乙烯裂解利润 data was N/A; the 碳四抽提利润 data was N/A; the 进口利润 was 465; the 出口利润 was -1,259, down 196 from the previous day; the 丁苯生产利润 was 1,188, down 150 from the previous day and 263 from November 13; the ABS生产利润 data was N/A; the SBS生产利润 was -465, up 60 from the previous day and down 45 from November 13 [4].

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 764.0 -6.0 -39.0 -66.0 -41.0 25省终端可用天数 22.0 -0.9 2.0 1.1 4.4 秦皇岛5000 662.0 -7.0 -41.0 -75.0 -53.0 25省终端供煤 565.3 0.8 -43.3 -74.8 -57.6 广州港5500 850.0 0.0 -5.0 -15.0 -40.0 北方港库存 2756.0 22.0 104.0 438.0 257.5 鄂尔多斯5500 510.0 -10.0 -25.0 -85.0 -80.0 北方锚地船舶 52.0 2.0 -21.0 -70.0 12.0 大同5500 565.0 -10.0 -25.0 -80.0 -85.0 北方港调入量 135.7 -14.2 -28.1 -36.3 -20.4 榆林6000 712.0 0.0 -20.0 0.0 -55.0 北方港吞吐量 135.1 -15.5 -26.4 -45.0 -36.2 榆林6200 755.0 0.0 -5.0 15.0 -40.0 CBCFI海运指数 64 ...