Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate weakly, while treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar, iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][5][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to moderately layout long positions after the market panic is fully released; aluminum is recommended to strengthen observation; nickel is recommended to observe or short on rallies; tin is recommended for range - bound operations; gold is recommended to build long positions at low prices after sufficient price corrections; silver is recommended for range - bound operations [1][10][12][14] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber are expected to fluctuate weakly; urea and methanol are expected to fluctuate; soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [1][19][20][21] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate weakly; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][26][27][28] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly; eggs are strongly supported in the near - term and short on rallies in the far - term; corn is recommended to go long at low prices; soybean meal is weak in the near - term and strong in the far - term; oils are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][30][32][33] Core Views The report comprehensively analyzes the futures market trends of various industries. It is affected by multiple factors such as US tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. Different industries and varieties show different trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to pay attention to policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and market sentiment [5][10][19] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the short - term, it is under pressure. After the government introduces favorable policies, it may rebound. In the medium - term, if there are super - expected policies, the internal driving force will be enhanced; otherwise, it may still be under pressure [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Since early April, the extreme risk - aversion sentiment has driven the yield to decline too fast. There is a need for adjustment. Considering the uncertainty of trade policies, the interest rate decline process may be repeated [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Affected by the tariff storm, the direct and indirect exports of steel will be impacted. In the short - term, the market sentiment is affected, and the actual demand is under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff negative impact has eased. The supply side is strong, and the iron - water growth rate is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe around the US tariff and domestic policies [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, the supply pressure has recovered, and the demand is mainly rigid. For coke, the supply is increasing steadily, and the demand is improving marginally. Both are affected by the overall market and need to pay attention to terminal demand and inventory [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US tariff war increases the probability of a global economic recession, causing copper prices to decline. However, the long - term demand logic remains, and the short - term fundamentals are still resilient [10] - **Aluminum**: The overall supply of the ore end is improving, and the demand of downstream processing enterprises is declining. There is a short - term downward risk, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [12] - **Nickel**: Affected by policies and supply - demand relationships, the nickel ore price has an upward expectation, but the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern. It is recommended to observe or short on rallies [14][15] - **Tin**: The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the tin ore supply is tight. The price is expected to fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to build long positions at low prices [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US tariff policy, the market has a recession expectation, and the prices have corrected. However, the central bank's gold - buying demand and downstream industrial demand support the prices. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices after sufficient price corrections [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The long - term demand is sluggish, the supply is under pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro policies and export and maintenance dynamics [19] - **Caustic Soda**: The profit is neutral, the inventory is high, and the market sentiment is poor. However, the export orders may improve. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish and pay attention to inventory and production capacity changes [21] - **Rubber**: It is mainly affected by the macro - environment. The overseas demand is weak, and the domestic supply is loose. It is recommended to be bearish before the tariff impact changes [21] - **Urea**: The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is stable, and the inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage. It is necessary to pay attention to the price correction risk caused by the US tariff policy [23][24] - **Methanol**: The supply is at a high level, the demand of the main downstream is stable, and the inventory is in the destocking stage. It is necessary to pay attention to the price correction risk caused by the tariff policy [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply is expected to increase slightly, and the consumption is also expected to increase. The market consumption is not strong, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [26] - **Apples**: The inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but it is necessary to pay attention to macro risks [27] - **PTA**: The cost has collapsed due to external factors, and the terminal export orders are not good. Although the supply - demand is good and the inventory is decreasing, the price is not optimistic [28][29] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short - term, the price fluctuates around 14 yuan/kg. In the medium - to long - term, the supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [30][31][32] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is large, but the supply growth rate is weakened. In the long - term, the supply will continue to increase. It is recommended to observe in the near - term and short on rallies in the far - term [32] - **Corn**: In the short - term, the spot price is easy to rise and difficult to fall. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [33][34] - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, the 05 and 07 contracts are under pressure, and the 09 contract is expected to be strong. It is recommended to short on rallies for 05 and 07 and go long for 09 [34][35][36] - **Oils**: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the medium - to long - term, the supply of soybean oil and palm oil will increase, and the price may decline first and then rebound. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to spread trading [36][38][39]

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 4 月 9 日辽宁现货 14-14.3 元/公斤，较上日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.3- 14.9 元/公斤，较上日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.7 元/公斤，较上日稳 定；广东 15.2-15.8 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价北跌南稳。目前 行业养殖利润仍存，短期规模场多控重出猪均摊生产成本，且肥标价差虽缩 窄但仍处高位，养殖端降重出猪意愿不足，二育低位入场积极性较好，以及 屠宰库存偏低，猪价低位也会考虑冻品入库，均支撑价格。不过价格涨高后 二次育肥介入谨慎，大猪出栏积极性增强，而终端消费增量有限，屠企大多 亏损，猪价上方承压，短期猪价围绕 14 元/公斤震荡整理，关注企业出栏节 奏、二育和屠宰冻品入库情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月持续缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势， 根据仔猪数据和存栏结构，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，2 月中 大猪存栏占比增长，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消 费淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价下跌风险加剧，向成本回归，关注二育 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：承压下行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手）,未点价，想接 货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双方 会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。4 月 3 日美国宣布了全球对等关税措施， 加征关税的幅度之大，尤其针对发展中国家加征幅度最大基本在 30% 以上，发达国家加征在 20%以上还算容易接受，其中纺织品出口国家 中国加征 34%（34%+20%=54%，中国关税加征最多）、越南 46%、 孟加拉 37%、巴基斯坦 29%、印度 26%、土耳其 10%，其他泰国 36%、 韩国 25%、日本 24%、马来西亚 24%、印度尼西亚 32%、南非 30%、 欧盟 20%。中美博弈进入激烈阶段，面对出口严峻的形势，认为 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格继续下挫，杭州中天螺纹钢 3160 元/吨，较前一 日下跌 30 元/吨，05 合约基差 121（+14），主要受关税风波影响，美 国威胁再加征 50%关税。就钢材而言，关税对直接出口影响不大，2024 年中国对美钢材出口量 89 万吨，仅占出口总量的 0.8%，不过间接影响 相对较大，根据 Mysteel 测算，去年我国钢铁间接出口量达到 1.4 亿吨， 其中对美国出口达到 1000 多万吨，叠加部分转出口也受到影响，因此 后期钢材直接与间接出口均会受到一定冲击。美国对等关税政策是否会 按期落地仍需观察，另外国内除了关税反击以外，是否会出台财政与货 币政策也需要进一步观察。短期来看，一方面市场情绪受到冲击，另一 方面钢材实际需求承压，预计钢价震荡偏弱运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 2025/4/9 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 ◆ 铁矿石 研究员 周二，铁矿期货价格大幅下跌，特朗普放言对华可再加征 50%关税，整 体看黑色系是对周一的补跌。现货方面， ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 2025-04-09 公司资质 短期来看，股指承压，待政府出台利好政策后，股指或将跟随政策力度出现 不同程度的反弹。中期来看，若出台超预期政策，我国经济结构改善，则股 指内生动能将显著增强。若无超常规政策出台与有效推进，则海外经济下行 风险较大的情况下，或对我国经济造成扰动，股指或仍承压运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 承压运行 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 4 月初以来极致的避险情绪带动收益率下行斜率过快，整条曲线已大幅平行 下移约 10-15BP，行情演绎过快存在一定调整需求，叠加资金面较节前有所 收紧，当 10Y 国债来到年初极度抢跑降准降息的位置时，市场开始对近几个 交易日的大涨进行纠偏。前期过度乐观的做多情绪已逐步修正，当前收益率 水平下，止盈与欠配需求相互交织。考虑到贸易政策的不确定性，短线交易 盘更倾向于获利了结，利率下行过程存在反复。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 张志恒 从业编号：F03102085 投资咨询编号：Z0021210 联系人： 彭博 咨询电话：(027) 6577716 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Bearish allocation, with an overall cautious and bearish outlook, but potential support if domestic stimulus policies exceed expectations; otherwise, the market will face further pressure if trade frictions worsen and economic expectations deteriorate [2] - Caustic Soda: Cautiously bearish, with cautious downward movement in the market [3] - Rubber: Bearish, with a negative outlook especially before the substantial change in tariff impact [4] - Urea: Concerns about price corrections due to a bearish sentiment on commodities influenced by US tariff policies [6] - Methanol: Concerns about price corrections due to a bearish sentiment on commodities influenced by tariff policies [7] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, and methanol, covering aspects such as price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic impacts. It provides investment outlooks and key points to watch for each product [2][3][4] Grouped Summaries PVC - On April 8, the closing price of the PVC main 05 contract was 4,907 yuan/ton (-22), the Changzhou market price was 4,800 yuan/ton (0), and the main basis was - 107 yuan/ton (+22). Long - term demand is weak due to real - estate drag and export constraints, with high inventory and over - supply. The market is bearish, mainly following the broader market, and is affected by macro factors such as tariff wars, US recession expectations, and domestic stimulus policies [2] Caustic Soda - On April 8, the caustic soda main SH05 contract closed at 2,372 yuan/ton (-105). As of April 3, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises decreased by 2.99% week - on - week and increased by 12.07% year - on - year. The market is cautiously bearish, with attention on factors such as Weiqiao's delivery volume, inventory reduction, alumina production, and exports [3] Rubber - On April 8, the rubber sector declined significantly. The market is currently macro - driven, with weak overseas demand due to tariffs. The fundamentals are weak, with increasing expectations of tapping, loose port inventory, and weakening raw materials. The rubber sector is bearish before the tariff impact changes substantially [4] Urea - The urea main contract closed down 2.91% at 1,804 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant with a slight decrease in daily output, and the cost is stable. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises decreased slightly, and industrial demand is stable. The inventory decreased, and there are concerns about price corrections due to US tariff policies [6] Methanol - The methanol main contract closed down 0.33% at 2,381 yuan/ton. The domestic supply is high, and the downstream methanol - to - olefins industry is stable. Both domestic and port inventories are decreasing. There are concerns about price corrections due to tariff policies [7]

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 8 日收盘，沪铜主力 05 合约下跌 1.29%至 73360 元/吨。美 国推出对等关税政策，加征程度超预期，美国所有进口商品的实际关税 税率将从 2024 年年底的 2.3%升至 26%左右，达到 131 年来的最高水 平。其中今年对中国加征的关税就达到 54%若加上 2018 年美国对中国 加征的关税水平，已经显著超过 70%.。美国挑起的关税战加大了全球经 济衰退的概率，市场对美国经济将进入袁退的预期升温，市场恐慌情绪 周末二次发酵引发全球各类资产遭受无差别抛售，主要经济体股市，以 及重要大宗商品价格短期重挫。对冲基金为避免组合头寸爆仓大幅抛售 黄金等高位头寸，铜价也同样深度回撤。关税引发衰退的担忧，但铜长 期的需求逻辑仍在，铜矿及原料供应维持紧张，炼厂仍面临较大的原料 保供和保本压力，短期基本面仍有韧性，铜跌至 73000 一线后或将整固 回稳。不过关税扰动风险仍未完全释放，贸易战有螺旋加码的可能，后 续对经济层面的冲击仍有待观察，铜价的持续下行或将改变前期牛市运 行的特征。 产业服务总部 有色金属团队 2025-04-09 公司资质 长江期货股份有限 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 短期来看，股指承压，待政府出台利好政策后，股指或将跟随政策力度出现 不同程度的反弹。中期来看，若出台超预期政策，我国经济结构改善，则股 指内生动能将显著增强。若无超常规政策出台与有效推进，则海外经济下行 风险较大的情况下，或对我国经济造成扰动，股指或仍承压运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡偏弱 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 中长期来看，随着全球贸易摩擦升级趋势日益明朗，经济基本面不确定性显 著增加，后续出口、工业生产及制造业投资均面临下行压力。在此背景下， 市场对货币政策宽松的预期不断增强，我们持续看好债市表现。不过需要警 惕的是，资金面波动及获利了结压力可能引发短期回调风险，投资者需密切 关注市场情绪变化。 ◆ 策略建议： 继续走强 研究咨询部 2025-04-08 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 张志恒 从业编号：F03102085 投资咨询编号：Z0021210 联系人： 彭博 咨询电话：(027) 65777169 从业编号：F3080600 1 / 9 ◆ 市场回顾： 沪深 300 股指主力合约期货跌 1 ...

棉纺策略日报 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手）,未点价，想接 货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双方 会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。4 月 3 日美国宣布了全球对等关税措施， 加征关税的幅度之大，尤其针对发展中国家加征幅度最大基本在 30% 以上，发达国家加征在 20%以上还算容易接受，其中纺织品出口国家 中国加征 34%（34%+20%=54%，中国关税加征最多）、越南 46%、 孟加拉 37%、巴基斯坦 29%、印度 26%、土耳其 10%，其他泰国 36%、 韩国 25%、日本 24%、马来西亚 24%、印度尼西亚 32%、南非 30%、 欧盟 20%。中美博弈进入激烈阶段，面对出口严峻的形势，认为 4 月 开始进入压力冲击阶段， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily insights on the feed and aquaculture industry, covering various products such as live pigs, eggs, oils, soybean meal, and corn. It analyzes the current market situation, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding trading strategies [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - **Spot Price**: On April 8, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. The price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.4 yuan/kg, in Henan 14.3 - 15 yuan/kg, in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong 15.1 - 15.6 yuan/kg [1]. - **Market Analysis**: China's 34% counter - tariff on US imports from April 10 has limited direct impact on the pork market as the domestic pork import accounts for only about 5% and the US share is less than 1%. Currently, the industry still has breeding profits. In the short - term, large - scale farms control the weight of pigs for sale, and the low - price entry of secondary fattening and low slaughter inventory support the price. However, the price is under pressure due to cautious secondary fattening after price increases, increased large - pig sales, and limited terminal consumption. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply from April to September is expected to increase, and the price may fall back to the cost level. The forward price is also under pressure [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures are at a discount, reflecting a weak expectation. The general direction is to go short on rebounds. For the 05 contract, pay attention to the pressure at 13,500 - 13,600; for the 07 contract, 13,600 - 13,800; and for the 09 contract, 14,300 - 14,500. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices [1]. Eggs - **Spot Price**: On April 8, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in Beijing it was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2]. - **Market Analysis**: In April, the supply pressure is large due to the increasing number of old hens undergoing molting and newly - hatched chickens starting to lay eggs. The egg price is under pressure, but the increased culling of old hens and the digestion of inventory have marginally improved the supply - demand pattern. In the long - term, the high breeding profit from December 2024 to February 2025 led to high replenishment enthusiasm, resulting in more newly - laying hens in the second quarter. The supply increase trend in the second half of the year may be difficult to reverse [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 05 contract on the futures market has a slight premium over the spot. For non - holders, be cautious about shorting. The 08 and 09 contracts are considered bearish in general, but pay attention to the impact of feed costs and culling [2]. Oils - **Futures Price Movement**: On April 7, the US soybean oil May contract fell 1.14% to 45.20 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil June contract fell 3.40% to 4,182 ringgit/ton. The domestic palm oil price fell 410 - 460 yuan/ton, soybean oil 150 - 250 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 250 - 280 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Trump's tariff policy has increased the global economic recession expectation, dragging down the oil market. In Malaysia, the March export increased by 0.4 - 3.9% month - on - month, but the production increased by 5.10 - 9.48%. The inventory is expected to rise. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate weakly. In China, the supply - demand is in a tight balance in the short - term, but the price may decline in the long - term [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Although the US may increase the biodiesel blending ratio, the overall fundamentals are bearish. After the mutual tariff imposition, the domestic import of US soybeans incurs heavy losses, and the South American supply pressure is large. The US soybean is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. In China, the soybean and soybean oil inventories are decreasing, but the supply pressure will increase in the second quarter. The price may first fall and then rise in the long - term [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The uncertainties in the relations between the US, Canada, and China have affected the Canadian rapeseed export. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the supply pressure will ease after May. In the long - term, the rapeseed oil price is expected to stop falling and rebound [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the festival, domestic oils are expected to fluctuate weakly, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil relatively strong. In the second quarter, the overall oil price may decline, and then rebound in the third quarter. Temporarily observe the 05 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the support levels. Close the spread - widening position of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil [8]. Soybean Meal - **Futures and Spot Price**: On April 7, the US soybean 05 contract rose 6 cents to 983 cents/bu. The domestic soybean meal spot price in the East China region was 3,120 yuan/ton, with a basis of 05 + 220 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: China's tariff policy on US imports has a limited direct impact on soybean meal before July, but it may push up the bottom price of the 05 and 07 contracts due to sentiment. The abundant supply from South America will limit the upward space. In the long - term, the tariff will increase the import cost and tighten the supply, driving up the domestic soybean meal price [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about going long on the 05 and 07 contracts. Go long on the 09 contract at low prices. Do a reverse spread on the 7 - 9 contract and a positive spread on the 9 - 1 contract. For spot enterprises, be cautious about arranging the basis from May to September, and price at low levels if there is an existing basis. Arrange the basis after September according to the crushing profit or use the 9 - 1 positive spread [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On April 7, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2,180 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,230 yuan/ton. The purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2,334 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, there is still a selling demand from the grass - roots level, and the port inventory is high, putting pressure on the spot price. However, the market sentiment is bullish, and the downstream has replenishment demand. In the long - term, the corn production in the 24/25 season has decreased, and the import has continued to decline, but the supply is supplemented by substitutes, limiting the upward space [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Generally, be bullish on the corn market. Look for opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on pullbacks, and pay attention to the 2,250 support level. Do positive spreads on the 5 - 9 and 5 - 7 contracts [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, eggs, live pigs, etc. on the previous and the day before the previous trading days [11].