Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC is rated as bearish with a volatile and weak outlook [2] - Caustic soda is rated as cautiously bearish [3] - Rubber is rated as bearish [4][5] - Urea is rated with a focus on price correction risk due to a supply - demand situation and macro factors [6] - Methanol is rated with a focus on price correction risk due to supply - demand and macro factors [7][8] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The energy and chemical market is generally affected by factors such as trade conflicts, overseas recession expectations, and domestic policies. Different products have their own supply - demand characteristics, and most are under downward pressure, but there are also some potential positive factors [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Product PVC - On April 7, the PVC 05 contract closed at 4,929 yuan/ton (-140). In the long - term, demand is weak due to the real estate drag and export restrictions, supply has new investment plans and high inventory, so it's in a bearish position. In the short - term, it follows the macro - market and is volatile and weak. Attention should be paid to tariffs, US recession expectations, and domestic stimulus policies [2] Caustic Soda - On April 7, the SH05 contract closed at 2,477 yuan/ton (-24). The overall chlor - alkali chain is weak. Currently, profit is neutral, inventory is high, and the market sentiment is poor, but export orders may improve. Pay attention to delivery volume, inventory, alumina production, and future maintenance [3] Rubber - On April 7, the three major rubbers hit the daily limit down, with a decline of over 12% from last Thursday to April 7. Due to macro - deterioration and weak fundamentals, it's bearish. As of April 6, 2025, the inventory in Qingdao increased slightly. The domestic spot price decreased [4][5] Urea - On April 7, the urea contract fell 1.69% to 1,862 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, demand from compound fertilizer enterprises decreased slightly, and it's in a seasonal de - stocking phase. Pay attention to the price correction risk affected by US tariffs [6] Methanol - On April 7, the methanol contract fell 3.77% to 2,376 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, cost has increased slightly, demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable but with profit losses and potential maintenance. Inventory is decreasing. Pay attention to the price correction risk affected by tariffs [7][8]

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格低开后震荡运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3190 元/吨， 较节前下跌 50 元/吨，05 合约基差 107（+31），主要受关税风波影响， 清明期间外盘大跌，市场氛围悲观。就钢材而言，关税对直接出口影响 不大，2024 年中国对美钢材出口量 89 万吨，仅占出口总量的 0.8%，不 过间接影响相对较大，根据 Mysteel 测算，去年我国钢铁间接出口量达 到 1.4 亿吨，其中对美国出口达到 1000 多万吨，叠加部分转出口也受到 影响，因此后期钢材直接与间接出口均会受到一定冲击。近日全美爆发 大规模反特朗普示威，美国对等关税政策是否会按期落地仍需观察，另 外国内除了关税反击以外，是否会出台财政与货币政策也需要进一步观 察。短期来看，一方面市场情绪受到冲击，另一方面钢材实际需求承压， 预计钢价震荡偏弱运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周一，铁矿期货价格低开高走。关税利空有所缓和。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 768 元/湿吨（-16）。普氏 62%指数 98.85 美元/吨（-2.95）， 月均 102.32 美元/吨。PBF ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 4 月 8 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆国债： | 继续走强 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 等市场恐慌情绪完全释放后考虑适度布局多单 | | ◆铝： | 加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间操作 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间操作 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆纯碱： | 看涨期权空头持有。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏空 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡走强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 近月支持较强，远月逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US tariff war increases the probability of a global economic recession, leading to a short - term slump in major commodity prices. Although the long - term demand logic for copper remains, the tariff risk has not been fully released, and the continuous decline in copper prices may change the previous bull - market characteristics [1] - For aluminum, the overall ore supply is improving, but there are still short - term downward risks. It is recommended to strengthen observation and pay attention to policy changes [3] - The US tariff policy may suppress future nickel demand, and with the continuous surplus of pure nickel, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The US tariff policy causes a callback in tin prices, but the recovery of the downstream semiconductor industry may support demand, and price fluctuations are expected to increase. It is recommended to build positions at low prices [6] Group 3: Summary by Metal Type Copper - As of April 7, the main 05 contract of Shanghai copper closed at 73,640 yuan/ton, down 7.01%. The US tariff war led to a sharp decline in copper prices, but the long - term demand logic remains, and it may stabilize after falling to 73,000 yuan. However, tariff risks still exist [1] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices plummeted, and the buying sentiment was weak with limited transactions [7] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9,136 tons to 116,824 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 575 tons to 210,225 tons [19] Aluminum - As of April 7, the main 05 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 19,685 yuan/ton, down 3.67%. The overall ore supply is improving, the alumina production capacity is decreasing, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is flat. The downstream demand is weak, and there are short - term downward risks [2][3] - In the spot market, the spot aluminum price followed the decline of the futures price. The trading atmosphere was dull in the afternoon [8] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5,455 tons to 126,177 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,050 tons to 454,700 tons [19] Nickel - As of April 7, the main 05 contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 118,640 yuan/ton, down 7.51%. The macro - environment is unfavorable, the nickel ore supply is tight, the refined nickel is in surplus, and the nickel iron price is strong. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5] - In the spot market, the purchasing enthusiasm increased as the nickel price fell [16] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 205 tons to 27,166 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,908 tons to 202,308 tons [19] Tin - As of April 7, the main 05 contract of Shanghai tin closed at 267,800 yuan/ton, down 8.75%. The spot supply is tight, the semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and price fluctuations are expected to increase. It is recommended to build positions at low prices [6] - In the spot market, there was a strong fear of falling, with mostly on - lookers and only a small number of traders buying at low prices [17] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 133 tons to 9,641 tons, and LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 2,990 tons [19] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead, Alumina) - **Zinc**: Spot zinc prices fell, the market trading was dull, and the terminal procurement volume was limited [10][12] - **Lead**: Spot lead prices fell, and downstream buyers purchased on demand at low prices [13][14] - **Alumina**: Domestic alumina spot prices fell, the market transaction improved slightly, and the overall demand was inelastic [9]

中美互征关税对油脂油料的影 响分析 核心观点 2025 年 4 月 2 日，川普宣布对等关税，表示将对所有国家征收 10%的 基准关税（4 月 5 日生效），同时对所有中国商品额外加征 34%关税。之后 4 月 4 日，中国宣布将从 4 月 10 日起对所有美国商品加征 34%关税。在清 明节后，国内粕系因为担心美豆进口受限后的供应紧张局面而高开。另一方 面，油脂因为国际原油和外盘油脂大跌拖累，节后大幅下跌，油粕走势明显 分化。中美贸易紧张加剧对油脂油料影响几何？本文将对此进行分析。 对豆粕影响上，我们认为关税事件对二季度国内大豆的供应影响有限， 主要从情绪上支撑价格。虽然加税从成本端推高豆油价格，但 4-6 月期间中 国本身就倾向于购买更便宜的巴西豆，对美豆采买的量非常少，关税事件只 会进一步压缩已经很少的美豆旧作采买需求。二是二季度巴西豆大量到港， 月均到港量达 1000 万吨级，可以有效弥补美豆进口受阻后的供应空缺。不 过从中长期来看，如果三四季度美豆进口中国仍然受阻，则美豆供应季期间 的国内大豆供应可能明显下降，利好远月豆粕价格。 对油脂影响上，虽然关税事件短期通过阻碍美豆进口，对豆油价格有一 定的提 ...

金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 股指或承压运行，国债短 期看好 2025-04-07 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：主要宽基指数周涨幅均为负数。沪深300、中证500跌超1%。 p 核心观点：美国3月非农新增就业大超预期，达到22.8万，因劳动参与率上升、失业率走高。美联储主 席鲍威尔警告新关税带来的经济影响可能远超预期，他同时暗示因为政府政策及其影响尚不明朗，暂时 不会调整利率。11箭齐发、中国反制！4月10日12时起对美加征34%关税、中重稀土出口管制。人民日 报评论员：降准、降息等货币政策工具已留有充分调整余地。美国关税超预期，但我国关税反击迅速强 硬，政策态度强势，股指承压但后续利好政策出台预期将一定程度上支持股指，股指或震荡偏弱运行。 p 技术分析：KDJ指标显 ...

长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-04-07 01 尿素：去库虽延续 价格短期或回调 02 甲醇：关注宏观政策影响 目 录 尿素：去库虽延续 价格短期或回调 01 4 重点关注：尿素装置减产检修情况、仓单情况、复合肥开工情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：尿素盘面价格先强后弱，4月3日尿素2505合约收盘价1894元/吨，较上周基本持平，期间最高涨至 1931元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1950元/吨，较上周下调12元/吨，山东市场日均价1952元/吨，较上周下调 11元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端尿素开工负荷率84.84%，较上周基本持平，其中气头企业开工负荷率65.38%，较上周下调 0.73个百分点，尿素日均产量小幅回落至19.32万吨。成本端无烟煤市场下游消耗刚需有支撑，价格仍持稳运行山 西晋城S0.4-0.5无烟洗小块含税价900-950 ...

2025-04-07 产业服务总部 关税风波对黑色商品的影响 2025 年 4 月 2 日，特朗普公布全面关税方案：拟从 4 月 5 日 开始，对所有国家征收 10%的"基准关税"。此外，还将从 4 月 9 日开始，对包括中国在内的数十个其他国家和地区在 10%基础上加 征更高关税。 据特朗普公布新政策，中国的"对等关税"税率将达 34%，越 南的关税将高达 46%，泰国关税为 36%，印度尼西亚关税为 32%， 印度关税为 26%，日本关税为 24%，韩国关税为 25%，欧盟国家 关税将升至 20%。依据美国国际贸易委员会数据，2024 年美国对 华贸易加权平均税率为 10.9%。美国已经分别于 2 月 4 日和 3 月 4 日落地对华加征 10%关税，若此次宣布的 34%税率落地，则美国对 华进口关税税率将达到 64.9%。另一方面，特朗普发表"解放日" 讲话后，签署了一项行政令，将关闭从中国免税运送低价包裹入美 的贸易"漏洞"渠道。白宫方面表示，自 5 月 2 日开始，终止对从 中国内地和中国香港进口的小额包裹（价值 800 美元或以下）的免 税待遇，即低值免税门槛。 一些商品将不受"对等关税"的约束， ...

长江期货贵金属周报 衰退预期升温，价格承压回调 2025/4/7 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 2023/07/03 2023/08/03 2023/09/03 2023/10/03 2023/11/03 2023/12/03 2024/01/03 2024/02/03 2024/03/03 2024/04/03 2024/05/03 2024/06/03 2024/07/03 2024/08/03 2024/09/03 2024/10/03 2024/11/03 2024/12/03 2025/01/03 2025/02/03 2025/03/03 2025/04/03 美国推出对等关 ...

氯碱周报： 偏弱震荡 关注出口和宏观 2025-04-07 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 交易咨询号：Z0015756 目 录 01 烧碱：偏弱震荡 关注出口 02 PVC：偏弱震荡 关注宏观 01 核心观点总结 资料来源：IFIND，博易云，卓创资讯，隆众资讯，长江期货 烧碱：偏弱震荡 关注出口 01 p 本周回顾：截止周五，主力SH2505跌3.66%收于2501，山东32%液碱855（-15）元/吨，折百2672（-47）元/吨。 p 基本面情况： 资料来源：IFIND，博易云，卓创资讯，隆众资讯，长江期货 1. 上游：利润尚可，关注液氯。截至4月3日，山东原盐保持260（0）元/吨，山东液氯价格+1（-49）元/吨。山东氯碱企业周平均毛利在603 元/吨，较上周 环比-24.25%。周内山东液碱价格基本下行，液氯价格下行，周内整体氯碱利润下行。 2. 供应：供应维持高位，关注检修情况。截至4月3日，中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业周度产能利用率82.9%（-0.4%），周损失量16.45万吨（-1.02%）， 周产量79.48万吨 ...