1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market is influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3]. - Trade war impacts are gradually weakening, but uncertainties still exist, affecting market sentiment and price trends [1][4][5]. - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of supply - demand imbalance, leading to price fluctuations and investment strategies [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market showed Friday oscillations, with international gold priced in London nearly closing at $3200/ounce. Suggested to build long positions opportunistically due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: Recommended to short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Expected to trade in a range due to short - term risk preference decline, weak dollar, and tight spot market, despite inventory accumulation [2]. - **Aluminum**: Likely to maintain a sideways movement in the short term as downstream consumption weakens, and it's advised to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices are expected to be strong until an agreement is reached between mining companies and the Guinea government, and a light - position long strategy is recommended [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With weak fundamentals and limited downward momentum, it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggested to hold short positions or short on rebounds as the market is in a surplus and the bearish sentiment is strong [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Expected to bottom - out and oscillate in the short term, and it's recommended to take profit on long positions and consider shorting the 07 contract later [3]. - **Tin**: Forecasted to trade in a range due to weak risk preference and a weak dollar [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations, and it's recommended to close short positions and consider certain arbitrage strategies [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it's advised to close short positions and try long positions on the 2509 contract [4]. - **Coking Coal**: It's recommended to wait and see as the market is in a relatively balanced state [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: U.S. soybeans are expected to be range - bound, and domestic soybeans are short - term weak and mid - term follow the international market [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate as the spot market is weak and trade conditions ease [5]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term is expected to rebound while the long - term is bearish [6]. - **Cotton**: It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: In a seasonal weak phase, and later attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate as supply is high and demand is weak with cost support [6]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices are expected to decline as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [6]. - **Apples**: Prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but attention should be paid to fruit consumption and weather conditions [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [8]. - **PTA**: PX and PTA are in a de - stocking state, and it's recommended to take profit on long - short spreads and be cautious with single - side trading [8]. - **Rubber**: Bearish sentiment is strong, and it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: Prices are expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to sell call options above 1250 [8]. - **PP**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [9]. - **MEG**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but long positions should be taken with caution due to high valuation [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Recommended as a short - side allocation due to high supply pressure and potential negative factors [9]. - **Styrene**: Expected to be strong in the short term, and a long - short spread strategy is recommended [10]. - **Soda Ash**: It's recommended to close short positions gradually and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize, waiting for non - aluminum downstream demand to recover [10]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The 06 contract should be chased with caution, and an 8 - 10 long - short spread strategy is recommended [11].

2025年05月16日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 隔夜贵金属价格反弹，以伦敦金计价的国际金价重回 3200 美元/盎司。 | | 属 | 【消息面】 | | | 鲍威尔表示美联储正在调整其货币政策框架，以应对 2020 年疫情后通胀和利率前景的重大变化；中东局势缓 | | | 和，伊朗称愿与美国达成协议。伊朗最高领袖顾问：伊朗愿承诺永不制造核武，换取美解除制裁。哈马斯官 | | | 员：若实现永久停火，可交出加沙地带控制权。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | 美国 4 月 PPI 同比上涨 2.4%低于预期，环比-0.5%，降幅创下五年来最大。美国 4 月零售销售环比 0.1%小幅 | | | 超预期，消费者支出疲软显露端倪。。 | | | 【库存数据方面】 | | | 国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日继续流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1213 吨，与前一交易日相比减少 8 吨，上期所黄金 | | | 库存 15 吨，维持不变，伦敦 4 月黄金库存 8536 吨，小幅增加；上期所白银库存 914 吨 ...

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning report released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on May 16, 2025, covering the market performance and trading strategies of stock index futures and treasury bond futures on May 15, 2025 [1][2][4] Market Performance Stock Index Futures - On May 15, the four major A-share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.68% to 3380.82 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.62% to 10186.45 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 1.92% to 2043.25 points, and the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index declined 1.26% to 1000.97 points. Market turnover was 1.1904 trillion yuan, a decrease of 159.5 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, beauty care (+3.68%), coal (+0.42%), and public utilities (+0.12%) led the gains, while computer (-2.97%), communication (-2.45%), and electronics (-2.12%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1406/149/3856 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of - 24.4 billion, - 28.8 billion, 6.8 billion, and 46.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 25.2 billion, - 21.1 billion, + 13.5 billion, and + 32.8 billion yuan respectively [2] Treasury Bond Futures - On May 15, treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The 2 - year treasury bond futures remained unchanged at 102.29 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.03% to 105.79 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.02% to 108.56 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.24% to 119.11 points [4] - In the cash bond market, the CTD bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had yield changes of + 2.5bps, + 2.25bps, + 1bps, and - 0.45bps respectively, with corresponding net basis of - 0.018, - 0.032, - 0.086, and - 0.082, and IRR of 1.72%, 1.87%, 2.43%, and 2.16% respectively [4] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 64.5 billion yuan and withdrew 158.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 94.1 billion yuan [4] Basis and Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 108.04, 92.3, 34.4, and 17.3 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 17.15%, - 15.53%, - 8.47%, and - 6.07% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 7%, 4%, 9%, and 16% respectively. The futures - spot price difference has been repaired but remains at a low level [3] - The outcome of the tariff talks exceeded expectations, and market risk appetite quickly recovered. In the future, the foreign trade situation in the second quarter and fiscal progress are crucial. It is recommended to pay attention to the recovery of the foreign trade industry and the performance of domestic demand sectors [3] - The market is expected to stabilize from four perspectives: the RMB exchange rate has held the key level; there are signs of capital inflows into popular industry indexes; historical data shows that market trading volume usually increases 1 - 2 weeks after May Day; the valuation of the broader market index is at a low level while the economic fundamentals remain strong. It is suggested to buy stock index futures on dips. In the short term, IC and IM have greater elasticity, while in the medium - to - long term, IH and IF have more attractive valuations [3] Treasury Bond Futures - In the short term, the money market is neutral. After the tariff issue is resolved, treasury bonds return to pricing based on economic fundamentals. In the short term, treasury bond prices have reached a high level and are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of treasury bond futures. If the domestic economy improves further with policy support, long - term treasury bond prices may gradually cool down; otherwise, long - term prices may remain in a high - level volatile situation [5] Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure boom has slightly increased, while the import and export boom has weakened [7] Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - Tables provide detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts (such as IC2505, IF2505, etc.) and corresponding spot indexes (such as CSI 500, SSE 50, etc.), including price, change, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [11] Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - Tables present the performance data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, including price, change, trading volume, open interest, CTD bond information, yield change, net basis, quantiles, and IRR [13] - A table shows the changes in short - term money market interest rates, including SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 [16]

金融研究 2025年5月15日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 14 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 0.86%，报收 3403.95 点；深成 指上涨 0.64%，报收 10354.22 点；创业板指上涨 1.01%，报收 2083.14 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.41%， 报收 1013.77 点。市场成交 13,499 亿元，较前日增加 239 亿元。行业板块方面，非银金融(+3.99%)， 交通运输(+1.79%)，食品饮料(+1.68%)涨幅居前；国防军工(-0.74%)，美容护理(-0.39%)，机械设备 (-0.37%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,327/268/2,816。沪深两 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 8、-76、-66、135 亿元，分别变动+179、+62、 -152、-89 亿元。 现券：目前活跃合约为 2506 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 240024.IB，收益率变动+0.75bps， 对应净基差 0.018，IRR1.32%；5 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. In the short term, it is recommended to avoid due to the easing of the trade war, and consider waiting for opportunities to build long positions in the medium and long term. For silver, it is suggested to sell high on rebounds or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For aluminum, the weakening dollar supports metal prices, and after the Sino - US tariff agreement, the export performance of aluminum downstream products may improve. The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - For alumina, the macro - sentiment has warmed up, and the previous production cuts and maintenance of alumina enterprises have led to continuous inventory reduction, which supports the short - term price increase. However, the decline in imported ore costs and the release of new production capacity may limit the rebound height. It is recommended to wait and see or sell high [3]. - For industrial silicon, although the price rose due to the warming of the commodity market sentiment, the fundamentals remain unchanged. The weekly output has declined to a new low after the festival, and the downward drive is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For lithium carbonate, short - term price may fluctuate or rebound slightly, and it is advisable to short at high prices in the long term. It is recommended to hold short positions or take short - term profits [3]. - For polysilicon, it is advisable to take profits on long positions and pay attention to the willingness of enterprises to deliver when the price rises to around 40,000 [3]. - For steel products, it is recommended to hold short positions in rebar, hold short positions in the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and try the reverse spread of hot - rolled coils in July/October. For iron ore, try short positions in the 2509 contract. For coking coal, it is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. - For agricultural products, for soybeans, the US soybeans may rebound in the short term, and the medium - term drive lies in the yield game; domestic soybeans are weak in the short term and may follow the international market to fluctuate in the medium term. For corn, the spot is weak, and the futures price may fluctuate and consolidate. For sugar, it may rebound in the short term and be bearish in the future. For cotton, it is recommended to wait and see. For palm oil, it may rebound in the short term and be in a weak seasonal stage in the medium term. For eggs and hogs, the futures prices are expected to fluctuate. For apples, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - For energy and chemical products, for LLDPE and PP, they may fluctuate strongly in the short term and be shorted at high prices in the long term. For PVC, it is recommended to close short positions. For rubber, it is recommended to short in the medium term. For glass, it is recommended to gradually close short positions. For crude oil, it is advisable to short at high prices. For styrene, the short - term trend is strong, and the monthly spread is in a positive spread. For soda ash, it is recommended to gradually close short positions [8][9][10]. - For shipping, the short - term European container shipping (EC) may fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high in the 06 contract and try the 8 - 10 positive spread [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Pre - market Commodity Futures - **Gold Market** - Market performance: Overnight precious metal prices weakened, and the international gold price denominated in London gold fell below $3,200 per ounce [1]. - News: Trump publicly stated that he does not plan to fire Powell but still pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. US government officials will not seek dollar depreciation in trade agreements [1]. - Economic data: China's social financing scale increment in the first four months totaled 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. US inflation cooled in April, with CPI at 2.3% year - on - year and core CPI at 2.8% year - on - year [1]. - Inventory data: Domestic gold ETFs continued to flow out. COMEX gold inventory increased by 5 tons to 1,221 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory remained at 15 tons. The London gold inventory in April increased slightly. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12 tons to 919 tons, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 38 tons [1]. - Operation suggestions: Avoid in the short term and wait for opportunities to go long in the medium and long term; sell silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. 2.2 Basic Metals - **Aluminum** - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 1.48% to 20,240 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 125 yuan per ton, with the LME price at $2,520.5 per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The starting rate of aluminum products increased slightly [2]. - Trading strategy: The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina** - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract increased by 3.77% to 2,945 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 4 yuan per ton. On May 14, 30,000 tons were traded in Western Australia at a price of $370.04 per ton, up about $11 per ton from the 12th [3]. - Fundamentals: The production capacity decreased due to phased maintenance and production cuts of alumina plants. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly [3]. - Trading strategy: The price may rise in the short term, but the rebound height may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see or sell high [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - Market performance: The 2506 contract closed at 8,490 yuan, up 260 yuan from the previous day [3]. - Fundamentals: In the supply side, the resumption of production in Sichuan was obvious in the short term, and Yunnan had production cuts. The demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon industries was limited [3]. - Operation suggestions: Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Market performance: The main 2507 contract closed at 65,200 yuan per ton, up 3.0% from the previous day [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, and the demand was less than expected. The social inventory decreased slightly last week, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased slightly [3]. - Trading strategy: Short at high prices in the long term, hold short positions or take short - term profits [3]. - **Polysilicon** - Market performance: The PS2506 contract closed at 38,420 yuan per ton, up 150 yuan from the previous day. The warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 40 [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply in May is expected to be flat or slightly lower than in April, and the downstream silicon wafer factories have limited procurement [3]. - Operation suggestions: Take profits on long positions and pay attention to the willingness of enterprises to deliver when the price rises to around 40,000 [3]. 2.3 Black Industry - **Rebar** - Market performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar fluctuated strongly and closed at 3,119 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan per ton from the previous day [4]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand for building materials increased, and the production increased. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced [4]. - Trading strategy: Hold short positions. Hold short positions in the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar and try the reverse spread of hot - rolled coils in July/October [4][5]. - **Iron Ore** - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of iron ore fluctuated strongly and closed at 737.5 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan per ton from the previous night session [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply and demand were neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged [5]. - Trading strategy: Try short positions in the 2509 contract. Wait and see for arbitrage [5]. - **Coking Coal** - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of coking coal fluctuated strongly and closed at 888.5 yuan per ton, up 9.5 yuan per ton from the previous night session [5]. - Fundamentals: The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, and the futures was at a premium [5]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [5]. 2.4 Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal** - Market performance: The CBOT soybeans were strong in the short term, trading on the expectation of US biodiesel policy [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply was loose in the near - term in South America and neutral in the long - term for US new - crop soybeans. The demand was seasonally weak [6]. - Trading strategy: US soybeans may rebound in the short term, and the medium - term drive lies in the yield game. Domestic soybeans are weak in the short term and may follow the international market to fluctuate in the medium term [6]. - **Corn** - Market performance: The corn 2507 contract rebounded slightly, and the deep - processing corn prices rose and fell [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand was tightening. The trade - end shipments increased in the short term, and the new wheat listing supplemented part of the demand [6]. - Trading strategy: The spot is weak, and the futures price may fluctuate and consolidate [6]. - **Sugar** - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,888 yuan per ton, down 0.29%. The basis was 8 yuan per ton, and the estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar after tax was 37 yuan per ton [6]. - Fundamentals: Raw sugar rebounded under the influence of macro and crude oil. In May, China entered the pure sales period, and the inventory was low year - on - year [6]. - Trading strategy: Rebound in the short term and bearish in the future [6]. - **Cotton** - Market performance: Overnight, the US cotton price continued to fall, and the international oil price weakened. The Indian cotton import in February decreased by 16.7% month - on - month and increased by 394.2% year - on - year. The Vietnamese cotton import in April increased by 11.1% month - on - month and 28.0% year - on - year. The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated upward [7]. - Operation suggestions: Wait and see and adopt the range - trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil** - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded in the short term [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply was in the seasonal growth period, and the export demand improved [7]. - Trading strategy: Rebound in the short term and be in a weak seasonal stage in the medium term [7]. - **Eggs** - Market performance: The 2506 contract of eggs fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was stable [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The cost supported the price [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Hogs** - Market performance: The 2509 contract of hogs rebounded, and the spot price fell slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply will continue to increase, and the pig price may decline resistantly [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Apples** - Market performance: The main contract closed at 7,723 yuan per ton, down 0.27%. The apple prices in Shandong were stable [7]. - Fundamentals: Extreme weather affected the apple setting in the main producing areas, and the low inventory and expected production reduction supported the price. The consumption problem needs attention [7]. - Operation suggestions: Wait and see [7]. 2.5 Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE** - Market performance: The main contract continued to rise. The spot price in North China was 7,360 yuan per ton, and the basis weakened [8]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply increased, and the import was expected to decrease slightly. The downstream demand was in the off - season for agricultural films [9]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term and short at high prices in the long term [9]. - **PVC** - Market performance: The V09 contract closed at 5,028 yuan, up 2.3% [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply was large, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The demand was expected to improve [9]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions [9]. - **Rubber** - Market performance: The RU2509 contract increased by 1.6% and closed at 15,235 yuan per ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The market sentiment was bullish, and the supply was expected to increase [9]. - Trading strategy: Short in the medium term and pay attention to the pressure level around 15,500 - 15,600 yuan [9]. - **Glass** - Market performance: The FG09 contract closed at 1,037 yuan, unchanged [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply was large, and the inventory accumulated. The demand was expected to improve [9]. - Trading strategy: The price may fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to gradually close short positions [9]. - **PP** - Market performance: The main contract continued to rebound slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,250 yuan per ton, and the basis weakened [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased, and the demand was expected to improve after the Sino - US tariff relaxation [9]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term and short at high prices in the long term [9]. - **Crude Oil** - Market performance: The oil price fell due to unexpected inventory accumulation and the possible Iran - US agreement [10]. - Fundamentals: The demand expectation increased slightly, and the supply pressure was large [10]. - Trading strategy: Short at high prices, and the short - term trading range is Brent $60 - 70 per barrel [10]. - **Styrene** - Market performance: The main contract rose sharply. The spot price in East China was 8,050 yuan per ton, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene inventory was normal, and the styrene inventory was low. The downstream demand was expected to improve [10]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term and adopt the positive - spread strategy for monthly spreads [10]. - **Soda Ash** - Market performance: The SA09 contract closed at 1,338 yuan, up 1.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply decreased due to maintenance, and the demand from photovoltaic glass increased [10]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions and consider selling out - of - the - money call options at 1,650 [10]. 2.6 Shipping - **European Container Shipping** - Market performance: After the Geneva Conference, the main contract hit the daily limit, and the shipowners announced a price increase for the European line on June 1 [11]. - Fundamentals: The demand on the US line recovered, but the European line demand was still moderate. The supply on the US line will be adjusted, and large ships on the European line are still being launched [11]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term. Be cautious when chasing high in the 06 contract and try the 8 - 10 positive spread [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the market is expected to stabilize from four perspectives. It is recommended to buy stock index futures at low prices, with short - term IC and IM having more elasticity, and medium - to - long - term IH and IF being more attractive in valuation [3] - For treasury bond futures, in the short term, the bond price has reached a high level and is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of treasury bond futures [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures (1) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure prosperity has slightly increased, while the import and export prosperity has decreased [7] (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 13, most of the A - share four major stock indexes declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.17% to close at 3374.87 points, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.13% to close at 10288.08 points, the ChiNext Index falling 0.12% to close at 2062.26 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling 0.15% to close at 1009.68 points. The market turnover was 1326 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.8 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - The basis and basis annualized yields of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts are 154.41, 127.07, 45.26, and 19.86 points, and - 22.41%, - 19.62%, - 10.37%, and - 6.55% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 2%, 2%, 4%, and 16% respectively [3] (3) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 13, most of the treasury bond futures rose, with the 2 - year treasury bond futures rising 0.03% to close at 102.35 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures falling 0.01% to close at 105.96 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures rising 0.03% to close at 108.72 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures rising 0.13% to close at 119.3 points [4] - In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 180 billion yuan and withdrew 405 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market is affected by factors such as US inflation data, trade policy changes, and Fed policy expectations. Different commodity futures have diverse trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight prices fluctuated slightly higher. US inflation cooled in April, with CPI at 2.3% and core CPI at 2.8%. Domestic gold ETFs had an outflow of 3.9 tons, and COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1 ton. Suggest avoiding in the short - term due to trade - war easing, and considering long - term building of long positions. For silver, suggest shorting on rebounds or going long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - **Silver**: Various inventory data changed, with some increases and decreases. Trade - war easing led to a drop in the gold - silver ratio below 100. Suggest shorting on rebounds or going long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices continued to strengthen. US inflation cooling and Trump's call for Fed rate cuts weakened the dollar, supporting metal prices. Suggest buying on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: The 2506 contract of electrolytic aluminum rose 0.48%. Supply increased slightly, and demand also improved. Suggest buying on dips as the dollar weakens and export prospects may improve [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract fell 0.11%. Supply decreased due to maintenance and production cuts, while demand from electrolytic aluminum plants increased. Suggest shorting on rallies as the long - term supply - demand surplus remains [3]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract fell 0.15%. Supply tightened as regenerative lead production became unprofitable, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to range - bound with a slightly higher bottom [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 2506 contract fell. Supply was strong and demand was weak. Suggest waiting and watching as the downward driving force is limited [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract fell. Supply was high and demand was mixed, with domestic new - energy vehicle sales showing different trends. Suggest holding short positions or taking short - term profits, expecting short - term fluctuations or a small rebound and long - term shorting on rallies [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The PS2506 contract fell. The market was affected by production - cut rumors. Suggest taking profits on long positions and watching the enterprise's willingness to deliver at a price around 40,000 yuan [4]. - **Tin**: Prices oscillated strongly. US inflation cooling and a weaker dollar supported prices. Suggest buying on dips as demand is relatively optimistic [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract rebounded. Inventory decreased, and the market was in a relatively balanced state. Suggest holding short positions and considering spread trading [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract rebounded. Supply and demand were neutral - strong in the short - term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained. Suggest trading within the range of 710 - 740 [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract rebounded. Inventory was at a high level, and the market was relatively loose. Suggest waiting and watching within the range of 850 - 900 [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are expected to be range - bound, with short - term rebounds and mid - term drivers depending on US soybean production. Domestic soybeans are weak in the short - term and follow the international market in the mid - term [6]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract continued to decline. Supply - demand tightened marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract rose. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term and turn bearish later [6]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic prices oscillated higher. Suggest waiting and watching with a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Prices rose. Supply is in the seasonal growth phase, and demand improved. Short - term rebound and mid - term weakness are expected [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract oscillated narrowly. Supply is high, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract oscillated narrowly. Supply is increasing, and prices are expected to decline resistantly [6]. - **Apples**: The price of the main contract fell. New - season production is a concern due to weather, and prices are expected to remain high in the short - term but may face downward pressure later [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is mixed. Short - term oscillation is expected to be strong, and long - term shorting on rallies is suggested [8]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract rose. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. Suggest hedging after the premium recovers [8]. - **PTA**: Prices are affected by cost and demand. Near - term performance is strong, and long - term shorting on rallies is considered [8]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract rose. Prices are affected by macro factors and supply - demand. Suggest waiting and watching or shorting around 15,500 [9]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract rose slightly. Supply is large, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to continue to decline, and hedging is suggested [9]. - **PP**: The main contract rebounded. Supply and demand are both increasing. Short - term oscillation is expected to be strong, and long - term shorting on rallies is suggested [9]. - **MEG**: Supply decreased, and inventory declined. Prices are expected to be strong in the near - term [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose. Supply pressure is large, and shorting on rallies is the main strategy, with the short - term oscillation range at Brent $60 - 70 per barrel [9]. - **Styrene**: The main contract rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may improve. Short - term oscillation is expected to be strong, and positive spread trading is suggested [10]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: After the Geneva Conference, the main contract hit the daily limit. Demand on the US line recovered, but that on the European line was mild. Supply on the US line will be adjusted, and more large ships are entering the European line. Suggest 8 - 10 positive spread trading and being cautious about chasing the 06 contract [11].

金融研究 2025年5月13日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 12 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.82%，报收 3369.24 点；深成 指上涨 1.72%，报收 10301.16 点；创业板指上涨 2.63%，报收 2064.71 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.49%， 报收 1011.23 点。市场成交 13,409 亿元，较前日增加 1,185 亿元。行业板块方面，国防军工(+4.8%)， 电力设备(+2.69%)，机械设备(+2.24%)涨幅居前；农林牧渔(-0.49%)，医药生物(-0.27%)，公用事业 (-0.26%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,109/198/1,101。沪深两 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 113、23、-94、-41 亿元，分别变动+286、+215、 -156、-345 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 130.46、105.67、37.61 与 16.02 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-18.24%、-15.72%、-8.33%与-5. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Trade war easing leads to a significant drop in gold prices and a fall in the gold - silver ratio below 100. The logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged, with short - term avoidance recommended and mid - to long - term opportunities for building long positions [1]. - For basic metals, copper is recommended for buying on dips; aluminum may be bullish in the short - term, and buying on dips is advised; alumina is recommended for shorting on rallies; zinc is expected to be weak in the medium - term; lead is likely to trade in a range with a slightly higher bottom; industrial silicon suggests waiting and watching; and tin is recommended for buying on dips [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, for steel, hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions; for iron ore, try short positions in the 2509 contract; and for coking coal, it is advisable to wait and watch [4][5]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are expected to be volatile, corn futures prices will consolidate, sugar may be bullish in the short - term and bearish later, cotton suggests waiting and watching, palm oil should focus on relevant reports and policies, eggs and pork prices are expected to be weak, and apples suggest waiting and watching [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE, PP, and styrene are expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; rubber suggests waiting and watching in the short - term and shorting in the medium - term; and crude oil is recommended for shorting on rallies [8][9]. - In the shipping industry, the short - term outlook for European line container shipping is bullish, but be cautious about chasing high prices in the 06 contract [10][11]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Overnight, precious metal prices dropped significantly due to trade war easing. The gold - silver ratio fell below 100 [1]. - **News**: China and the US cancelled 91% of additional tariffs and suspended 24% of counter - tariffs. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and Goldman Sachs postponed the expected rate - cut time to December [1]. - **Economic Data**: The US government's April fiscal budget surplus increased by 23% year - on - year to $258.4 billion, and customs tariff revenue reached a record high of $16 billion [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic gold ETFs had outflows. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 1217 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory remained at 15 tons. London's April gold inventory increased slightly. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9 tons to 924 tons, and India's March silver imports decreased to about 180 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid in the short - term due to trade war easing, and consider building long positions in the mid - to long - term. For silver, short on rallies or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated slightly higher yesterday, but were constrained by the strong US dollar index [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of copper ore remains tight. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and the back structure weakened [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum contract rose 1.66% yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly as smelters maintained high - load production, and demand improved as the operating rate of aluminum products increased [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The export of aluminum products may improve, and aluminum prices may be bullish in the short - term. Buy on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the 2509 contract rose 0.57% yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased as refineries carried out maintenance and production cuts, while demand increased as electrolytic aluminum smelters maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price rebounded in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand surplus remains. Short on rallies [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the 2506 contract rose 1.35% yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure remains as new smelter capacity increases and imports rise. Consumption decreased in May due to tariff impacts and weak domestic demand [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term [2]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract rose 1.13% yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may tighten as secondary lead production becomes unprofitable and primary lead plants plan maintenance. Consumption is weak due to the off - season and export difficulties [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price bottom may rise slightly, but it will mainly trade in a range [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract rose 115 yuan yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is strong and demand is weak. Sichuan's production recovered, and Yunnan reduced production. Demand from the polysilicon and organosilicon industries is limited [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch as the weekly production has declined [2]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The 2507 contract rose 1020 yuan yesterday due to short - covering [2][3]. - **Marginal Changes**: The US postponed a 24% tariff on "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days, and the comprehensive tariff rate for power batteries and energy - storage batteries decreased. The impact on lithium demand is controllable [2][3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is expected to be more balanced in May. Supply decreased slightly, and demand from the domestic new energy vehicle market was lower than expected. Inventory decreased slightly last week [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Hold short positions or take short - term profits [2][3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The PS2506 contract rose 620 yuan yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be flat or slightly lower in May. Demand from downstream wafer factories is limited [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions as the number of registered warehouse receipts is much smaller than the open interest. Pay attention to the willingness of enterprises to deliver when the price reaches 40,000 yuan [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated slightly higher yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The reduction of tariffs between China and the US boosted the consumer electronics industry, which is positive for tin prices. Domestic warehouse receipts decreased, and London's inventory increased [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [3]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The 2510 contract of rebar rose 65 yuan yesterday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar inventory decreased, and the supply - demand balance is seasonal. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions. The reference range for RB10 is 3040 - 3110 yuan [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of iron ore rose 22.5 yuan yesterday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand remained strong. However, the profit of steel mills narrowed, and the medium - term supply surplus remains. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try short positions in the 2509 contract. The reference range for I09 is 700 - 730 yuan [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of coking coal rose 3 yuan yesterday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore production increased slightly, and the profit of steel mills narrowed. The first round of price increases was implemented, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch. The reference range for JM09 is 850 - 900 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose due to positive USDA reports [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is loose in the near - term in South America and tight in the long - term in the US. Demand is dominated by South America in the short - term, and US soybean demand is seasonally weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to be volatile, and domestic soybeans will follow the international market after stabilizing. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean production [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2507 contract of corn corrected, and the price of deep - processed corn fell in North China and remained stable in Northeast China [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is tightening this year. The transfer of grain ownership to channels increases their bargaining power. Substitute imports are expected to decrease, but short - term spot sentiment may cool down [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices will consolidate due to falling spot prices and eased trade tensions [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar rose 0.19% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Raw sugar rebounded due to macro and crude oil factors. The price is supported at 17 cents/lb. China's sugar market is in the pure sales period, and inventory is low. The price trend will follow raw sugar [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term and bearish later. Pay attention to the time of concentrated imports [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight, US cotton prices fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton prices rose due to tariff policy changes [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's April cotton exports were stable compared to March and decreased by 1% year - on - year. China's April textile and clothing exports increased. The expected production of Xinjiang cotton in the 25/26 season may increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch, and use a range - trading strategy [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian market was closed yesterday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased seasonally in the producing areas, and exports improved [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Palm oil is in a seasonally weak stage. Pay attention to the MPOB report today and production and biodiesel policies later [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract of eggs rebounded, and the spot price rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, and demand is weak due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather and low vegetable prices. Cost provides some support [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. Pork - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of pork fluctuated slightly, and the spot price fell slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply will continue to increase, and the impact of secondary fattening on prices will weaken. Demand is in the off - season, and costs are low [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to decline with resistance. Pay attention to enterprise sales rhythms and secondary fattening trends [7]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract of apples rose 0.32% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Extreme weather may affect apple production in the new season, especially in Shaanxi. Low inventory and expected production reduction support prices, but consumption needs attention [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose slightly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The basis weakened, and the import window closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased as new plants were put into operation and existing plants had more unexpected maintenance. Demand is in the off - season for agricultural films, but there may be a rush to export [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Short on rallies for far - month contracts [8]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract rose 2.18% on Monday [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Thai raw material prices were not reported due to the Buddha's Birthday festival. Social inventory increased slightly [9]. - **Market Logic**: Positive signals from Sino - US negotiations boosted the market [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term but with limited upside. Wait and watch in the short - term and short in the medium - term [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract rebounded slightly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The basis strengthened, the import window closed, and the export window opened [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased as some plants resumed production and new plants were put into operation. Demand from the downstream home appliance and automobile industries is mixed, and there may be a rush to export [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Short on rallies for far - month contracts [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose yesterday due to positive Sino - US tariff negotiation results, but the increase was limited due to supply pressure [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to exceed demand in the second half of the year even if demand is adjusted upwards [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term trading range is adjusted to $60 - 70 per barrel for Brent. Short on rallies [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose significantly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The import window closed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories are expected to increase slightly in May. Demand from downstream industries is weak, but there may be a rush to export [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Slightly bullish in the short - term. Do positive arbitrage on the monthly spread [9]. Shipping European Line Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The main contract hit the daily limit after the Geneva meeting [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Demand improved after tariff negotiations, but European line cargo volume was still moderate. Supply will be adjusted on the US line, and large European line ships are still being launched [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high prices in the 06 contract. Do 8 - 10 positive arbitrage [10][11].

金融研究 2025年5月12日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 9 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.3%，报收 3342 点；深成指下 跌 0.69%，报收 10126.83 点；创业板指下跌 0.87%，报收 2011.77 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.96%， 报收 1006.32 点。市场成交 12,224 亿元，较前日减少 994 亿元。行业板块方面，美容护理(+1.41%)， 银行(+1.36%)，纺织服饰(+0.72%)涨幅居前；电子(-2.07%)，计算机(-1.96%)，国防军工(-1.87%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,212/135/4,061。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-174、-192、62、304 亿元，分别变动-244、-103、+156、 +191 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 136.88、116.92、37.56 与 17.81 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-18.75%、-17.03%、-8.14%与-5.53%，三年期历史分 ...