中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 ★ | 长线做多 | 政府继续关门、关税合法性继续辩论、地缘交恶。但数据意外走好。美国两党表态 来看，有望中旬结束停摆。黄金短线等企稳做多。中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，地缘 秩序重塑，央行继续买黄金，战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 ★ | 长线做多 | 白银跟随相关市场波动，基本面上来看，长期全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持 续变，宽松货币投放提供流动性。11200 支撑较强。长线做多持有 | | 铜 ★ | 长线持有 铜依旧看多。 | 特朗普督促尽快重启政府，美国 10 月 ADP 就业数据超预期，市场恐慌情绪缓和，隔 夜铜止跌企稳，建议回调逢低轻仓试多，中长期，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发， | | 锌 ★ | 国内冶炼厂冬储备库积极，锌精矿加工费大幅回落，消费淡季，需求转弱，隔夜锌 | | --- | --- | | | 铜依旧看多。 反弹承压 窄幅震荡，中长期看，锌供增需减，维持反弹逢高沽空观点。 | 铅 ★ 反弹承压 河北等地铅生产企业受环保影响，下游终端消费旺季尚可，但中大型铅蓄电池企 业减产拖累 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish [1] - Silver: Long - term bullish [1] - Copper: High - level adjustment in the short - term, long - term bullish [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, short - term profit - taking for long positions, long - term short - selling on rebounds [1] - Lead: Rise and then fall [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait for stabilization [1] Core Views - The shutdown of the US government has led to liquidity depletion, causing significant drops in capital markets including the precious metals market. Gold and silver are expected to stop falling in the short - term and are long - term bullish due to factors like global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. However, sentiment fluctuation risks need to be guarded against [2][3]. - Copper is under high - level adjustment in the short - term due to factors such as the strengthening US dollar and the approaching consumption off - season. But in the long - term, it remains bullish because of tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand [1][6]. - Zinc is facing a situation where supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. In the short - term, long positions should take profits at high levels, and in the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure in the short - term as the terminal consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, with overseas supply shrinking and domestic supply remaining high [1][13]. - Nickel prices are weak as overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the terminal consumption of downstream stainless steel is fading [1][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are under high - level adjustment. Although there are short - term shocks from复产 news, the fundamentals are improving with continuous de - stocking. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize [1][20]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver Market Review - The shutdown of the US government and other events have led to liquidity depletion, causing significant drops in the precious metals market [2]. Basic Logic - The US government shutdown may set a new record, and the market is facing liquidity depletion. There are also internal differences within the Fed regarding the December interest rate cut. In the long - term, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, both gold and silver have stopped falling. For the medium - and long - term, consider entering the market after stabilization. The support levels are 900 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions can be held [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper opened lower overnight and is under high - level adjustment [6]. Industry Logic - In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased. The consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and the market is worried about the economy as the manufacturing PMIs in China and the US have weakened in October [6]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the US government shutdown, the strengthening US dollar is suppressing commodities. Copper opened lower overnight and tested the 85000 support level. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels near the lower moving averages. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. For industrial hedging, options protection can be added, positions should be reduced, and strict risk control should be implemented. In the long - term, copper is still bullish [7]. Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc rebounded but faced pressure [9]. Industry Logic - The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined due to smelters' winter stockpiling. The profit of refined zinc enterprises has slightly increased. The consumption is entering the off - season, and the domestic zinc ingot export window has opened [9]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the decline in macro and sector sentiment, Shanghai zinc tested the 22800 level and then fell back. Short - term long positions should take profits at high levels. In the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas expectation of a year - end interest rate cut by the Fed has weakened. The domestic production capacity is high, and the terminal consumption is fading. For alumina, overseas shipments have decreased due to the rainy season in Guinea, and the domestic industry is facing profit contraction [13]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take profits at high levels for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, and pay attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate. The main operating range is [21000 - 21700] [14]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have slightly stabilized, and stainless steel shows a relatively weak trend [16]. Industry Logic - The overseas expectation of a year - end interest rate cut by the Fed has weakened. Overseas and domestic nickel inventories are increasing, and the terminal consumption of stainless steel is approaching the end of the peak season [17]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to the downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 122000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed low, with a reduction of over 70,000 lots in a day and a decline of over 4% [19]. Industry Logic - The market is spreading news of复产, which may impact the market in the short - term. However, the fundamentals are improving with continuous de - stocking for 11 weeks, and the terminal demand remains strong [20]. Strategy Recommendation - It is advisable to wait and see and wait for the market to stabilize within the range of [76800 - 78800] [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs. The core views for each variety are as follows: - Soybean meal: Short - term oscillation. Concerned about Sino - US trade and Brazilian soybean planting weather [1][3]. - Rapeseed meal: Short - term oscillation. Focus on Sino - Canadian trade and Sino - US trade negotiation results [1][5]. - Palm oil: Short - term decline. Existing short positions can be held, but new short positions should be taken with caution [1][7]. - Soybean oil: Short - term consolidation. Pay attention to US biodiesel policy and Sino - US trade [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Short - term stop - falling consolidation. Monitor Sino - Canadian trade progress [1]. - Cotton: Short - term correction. Be wary of the risk of a slight decline during the pressure transfer to inland areas [1][11]. - Jujube: Cautiously bearish. Short - selling operations should be carried out based on purchase price changes and progress [1][13]. - Live pigs: Be vigilant against rebounds. Consider short - selling on rebounds for near - month contracts and pay attention to the 03 contract [1][16]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: As of October 31, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased, oil - mill soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Spot prices showed a slight decline, and the futures price also decreased slightly [2][3]. - **Analysis Logic**: Good rainfall in Brazil in the next 15 days, reduced sales pressure on oil mills, and the current tariff situation still supports the cost of domestic soybean meal. The main contract is expected to be in a large - range market [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: As of October 31, coastal oil - mill菜籽 inventory was 0, rapeseed meal inventory remained unchanged, and unexecuted contracts decreased. Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices also increased [4][5]. - **Analysis Logic**: High port inventory and off - season consumption pressure the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports far - month contracts. The recent statement from Canada has cooled the expectation of tariff improvement [1][5]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the national commercial inventory decreased. Futures and spot prices both declined, and the trading volume increased [6][7]. - **Analysis Logic**: Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. Malaysia is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in October and November. Indonesian production increase and market doubts about B50 are negative factors [1][7]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested; in India, new cotton is being listed; in Pakistan, new cotton has been listed; in Brazil, the processing progress is slower than last year. In China, new cotton is almost harvested, and commercial inventory has recovered to the same - period level [8][9][10]. - **Analysis Logic**: The increase in supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries pressures the market, but India's MSP provides some support. In China, the cost of new cotton supports the bottom, but the increase in inventory and weak demand limit the upward movement [1][11]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: Xinjiang jujubes are concentrated for harvest. The expected reduction in production has been adjusted, and inventory has increased. Futures prices have fallen significantly, and spot prices are relatively stable [12][13]. - **Analysis Logic**: The large - scale harvest makes the new - season output clearer. High - inventory old jujubes and low acceptance of new jujubes in the market lead to an expected weakening of the market [1][13]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In October, large - scale enterprises over - sold, and the planned output in November decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises increased, and the output decreased. Futures prices showed mixed trends, and spot prices decreased slightly [14][15]. - **Analysis Logic**: The supply pressure in Q4 remains high due to the postponed supply from second - fattening in October. The market should be vigilant against short - term rebounds, and pay attention to the 03 contract and anti - arbitrage opportunities [1][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the products in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, and asphalt [2][4][6]. - Natural gas is rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [6]. - Glass is rated as "Bearish with Rebound" [6]. - Soda ash is rated as "Bearish with Consolidation" [6]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is generally affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical risks. Most products face downward pressure due to oversupply or weakening cost support, while natural gas has upward potential due to increased demand in the consumption season [2][4][6]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.80%, Brent down 0.69%, and SC unchanged from the previous period [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply in the off - season. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause production increases in Q1 next year. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating the accumulation [10][11]. - **Strategy**: Hold existing short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [455 - 470] [12]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 4, the PG main contract closed at 4,266 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [14][15]. - **Basic Logic**: It follows the cost - end oil price. The cost is bearish as Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price again. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical industry's operating rate has increased, but the inventory at ports has risen [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [17]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory is slowly decreasing, and cost support is weakening. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is in the peak season but lacks restocking motivation [21]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices and hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6750 - 6900] [21]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories are at the same - period high. The demand is at the end of the "Silver October", and there is a high pressure to destock. The oil - based cost support is insufficient [25]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices and hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6450 - 6600] [25]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost support is weakening as the price of calcium carbide falls. The social inventory is stable, and the fundamentals maintain a high - inventory and high - warrant structure [29]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a high contango. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious when short - chasing. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4550 - 4700] [29]. PX - **Market Performance**: - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has domestic production cuts and overseas production increases. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high. The cost - end oil price rebounds but the supply - demand pattern remains loose [30]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of PX at [6550 - 6650] [31]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA01 closed at 4,586 yuan/ton [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low, and the later - stage device maintenance efforts are expected to increase, which will relieve the supply pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory accumulation in November [33]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4530 - 4590] [34]. MEG - **Market Performance**: - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an expected inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver [36]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3870 - 3950] [37]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the spot price rebound. The supply pressure is large, and the demand performance is average. The cost support is weakly stable [40]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices and consider the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Pay attention to the price range of MA at [2091 - 2141] [42]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 closed at 1,625 yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory is at a high level but has decreased recently. The valuation is low [44]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the price range of UR at [1610 - 1640] [46]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 4, the NG main contract closed at 4.501 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 3.02% [48][49]. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical risk of sanctions on Russia has been released, and the demand for heating has increased with the temperature drop, which supports the gas price [50]. - **Strategy**: The rising demand in the consumption season supports the gas price, but the supply is sufficient, and the upward pressure is increasing. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.262 - 4.458] [51]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 4, the BU main contract closed at 3,193 yuan/ton, down 1.24% [53][54]. - **Basic Logic**: It follows the cost - end oil price. The cost support is decreasing, and the supply and demand are both weakening. The inventory has decreased [55]. - **Strategy**: The valuation is high, and the supply is sufficient. The medium - to - long - term trend is bearish. Lightly short - allocate. Pay attention to the price range of BU at [3100 - 3200] [56]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton [59]. - **Basic Logic**: The daily melting volume has increased slightly, the fundamentals are in a loose pattern, and the capital game is intense. The inventory in factories is slowly decreasing but remains high [60]. - **Strategy**: The loose pattern is hard to change, and the medium - to - long - term rebound is bearish. Pay attention to the price range of FG at [1060 - 1110] [60]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton [63]. - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory is slightly decreasing but still at a high level. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply is in a loose pattern due to high - production periods [64]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices. The single - side rebound is bearish. Pay attention to the price range of SA at [1170 - 1220] [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) are rated as "Cautiously Bearish" [1] Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the steel and related raw material markets shows weak supply and demand in the off - season. There are various influencing factors such as production changes, inventory adjustments, and policy impacts, leading to a situation where prices of most varieties are expected to run within a range with short - term weakening trends [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Variety View**: Rebar's weekly production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory continued to decline, and it conforms to the off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. Hot - rolled coil's apparent demand and production both rebounded, and inventory decreased slightly but remained higher than the same period in previous years. Iron - making water production decreased significantly, weakening the support for raw materials. The Sino - US meeting ended, and tariff easing measures were implemented [1][4] - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: For rebar, the upward and downward drivers are not strong, and it will run within a range in the medium term, and may face short - term weakening at the current position. For hot - rolled coil, it will also run within a range in the medium term and may have a short - term correction [1][5] Iron Ore - **Variety View**: This week, iron - making water production decreased significantly due to environmental protection control in Tangshan and some steel mills' loss - based maintenance. Steel mills reduced inventory, and port inventory increased. Overseas ore arrivals increased significantly, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bearish. The phased macro - positive factors have been exhausted, and the short - term ore price will fluctuate weakly [1][6] - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish. Reduced production disruptions and increased supply put pressure on ore prices [1][7] Coke - **Variety View**: The expectation of the third round of coke price increase is strengthening, and the game between coke and steel enterprises is obvious. Recently, coke enterprises' profits have improved slightly but are still mostly in a loss state. Iron - making water production has declined from a high level, steel mills' inventory is at a medium - low level, and the short - term replenishment enthusiasm is average. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and it will run within a range following the coking coal price [1][9] - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][10] Coking Coal - **Variety View**: On the supply side, the coal mine operating rate decreased slightly month - on - month due to safety inspections and underground problems. There is still uncertainty in Mongolia's political situation, and the subsequent port traffic should be monitored. The exchange released opinions on the delivery quality standard, but the applicable contract is not clear yet, and it has limited impact on the listed contracts. Iron - making water production decreased significantly, and the demand side weakened marginally. Currently, the supply - demand pattern is still relatively healthy, and the price will run within a range [1][12] - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][13] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Variety View**: For ferromanganese, the production area supply level is still at a high level in the same period, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory continued to increase compared with the previous period. For ferrosilicon, the production area supply level remained high, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory increased significantly compared with the previous period. Attention should be paid to the re - warehousing situation after the warehouse receipt cancellation [1][16] - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: For ferromanganese, the manganese ore price increased slightly, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price, so it is cautiously bearish. For ferrosilicon, its fundamentals have become looser, and there is upward pressure on short - term coal prices, so it should be treated bearishly [1][17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7] Report's Core Views - The core driver of the energy and chemical industry is the imbalance between supply and demand, with most products facing supply - side pressure and some having weak demand [2][4][7]. - Crude oil is pressured by off - season supply surplus, and most downstream products are affected by the trend of crude oil prices [2][10]. - Some products have low valuations, but the fundamental weakness restricts their upward movement [4][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market situation**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly. WTI rose 0.11%, Brent rose 0.19%, and SC rose 1.26% [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause production expansion in the first quarter of next year. Demand in India increased in September, and US commercial crude inventories decreased in the week ending October 24 [10][11]. - **Strategy**: Hold existing short positions, and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the range of 460 - 475 yuan/barrel for SC [12]. LPG - **Market situation**: On November 3, the PG main contract closed at 4305 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end is bearish as the price of crude oil has corrected. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has shown some resilience. Port inventory has increased, while refinery inventory has decreased [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton [17]. L - **Market situation**: The L01 contract closed at 7009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Social inventory is slowly decreasing, and cost support is weakening. Supply is expected to remain loose due to seasonal restart of domestic plants and expected increase in imports. Demand during the peak season lacks restocking motivation [21]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a contango structure. Industry players can sell at high prices. Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton [21]. PP - **Market situation**: The PP01 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [23]. - **Fundamentals**: Mid - and upstream inventories are at a high level compared to the same period, and there is high pressure to destock. Oil - based cost support is insufficient [25]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a contango structure. Industry players can sell at high prices. Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton [25]. PVC - **Market situation**: The V01 contract closed at 4746 yuan/ton, up 0.8% [27]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of calcium carbide has fallen, weakening cost support. Social inventory is stable, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is continuously compressed. The market has a high - inventory and high - warrant structure [29]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a contango structure. Industry players can hedge at high prices. Be cautious when short - chasing. Focus on the range of 4550 - 4700 yuan/ton [29]. PX - **Market situation**: Supply - side domestic plants have reduced production while overseas plants have increased production. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken [30]. - **Fundamentals**: PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high this year. Cost - end crude oil has rebounded, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose [30]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices, and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of 6570 - 6660 yuan/ton [31]. PTA - **Market situation**: The processing fee is low. New plants have been put into operation recently, but future plant maintenance is expected to increase, relieving supply - side pressure [33]. - **Fundamentals**: Downstream demand has improved slightly, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. Cost - end crude oil is under long - term pressure [33]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of 4520 - 4600 yuan/ton [34]. MEG - **Market situation**: Both domestic and overseas plants have increased production. There is an expectation of increased supply pressure [36]. - **Fundamentals**: Terminal consumption has improved, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers [36]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of 3910 - 3980 yuan/ton [37]. Methanol - **Market situation**: High inventory restricts the rebound of spot prices. Supply - side domestic plants have increased production, while overseas plants have slightly reduced production [40]. - **Fundamentals**: Demand is average, and cost support is weakly stable. The overall fundamental situation remains weak [40]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices and consider the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the range of 2090 - 2150 yuan/ton [42]. Urea - **Market situation**: Small - particle urea spot prices have declined. Supply is expected to increase as maintenance plants resume production [44]. - **Fundamentals**: Demand has improved slightly, but winter agricultural demand and export benefits are limited. The domestic fundamental situation remains loose [44]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long - term. Focus on the range of 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton [46]. Natural Gas - **Market situation**: On November 3, the NG main contract closed at $4.369 per million British thermal units, up 3.90% [49]. - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and the demand side is supported by the arrival of the consumption peak season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of $4.172 - $4.300 per million British thermal units [51]. Asphalt - **Market situation**: On November 3, the BU main contract closed at 3244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [54]. - **Fundamentals**: The price is mainly affected by crude oil. Cost support has decreased, and supply and demand have both declined in October [55]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be lightly held. Focus on the range of 3250 - 3350 yuan/ton [56]. Glass - **Market situation**: The daily melting volume has increased slightly, and the fundamental situation remains loose [60]. - **Fundamentals**: Factory inventory is slowly decreasing but remains high. Demand is weak due to the decline in real - estate prices [60]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to be bearish on medium - to - long - term rebounds. Focus on the range of 1060 - 1110 yuan/ton [60]. Soda Ash - **Market situation**: Factory inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute level remains high [64]. - **Fundamentals**: Demand is mostly rigid, and supply remains loose during the high - production cycle [64]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a contango structure. Industry players can sell at high prices. The market is expected to be bearish on rebounds. Focus on the range of 1170 - 1220 yuan/ton [64].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish [1] - Silver: Long - term bullish [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Short - term rebound, long - term sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Short - term rebound [1] - Tin: Short - term rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Short - term strong [1] - Nickel: Short - term weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Short - term rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait for stabilization [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US government shutdown, weak economic data, and Fed's internal divergence affect the precious metals market. Gold and silver are recommended for long - term value allocation, and short - to medium - term entry opportunities are available [1][3][4] - For copper, although there are short - term supply and demand disturbances, the long - term outlook remains positive, and short - term dips can be used to buy [1][6][7] - Zinc shows a short - term rebound but a long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease situation, so it is advisable to sell on rallies [1][9][10] - Aluminum is in a transition from peak to off - peak season, with a short - term strong trend, and short - term profit - taking on rallies is recommended [1][11][13][14] - Nickel is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weakening downstream demand, and rebound selling is recommended [1][15][17] - Lithium carbonate has a marginal improvement in fundamentals but is affected by short - term news. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize [1][18][20][21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Short - term price fluctuations are narrow, and attention is paid to US data and government shutdown [2] - **Basic Logic**: Weak US economic data, continuous government shutdown, internal Fed divergence, and long - term bullish factors for gold such as global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - to medium - term entry, with strong support at 910 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver, and hold long - term value - allocation positions [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai and London copper are oscillating at high levels [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Chilean copper production decline, expected reduction in domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter, and weakening demand in the off - season [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, buy on dips near 84500 - 85500, hold long - term strategic positions, and use options for hedging in the industry [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: London zinc rose nearly 2%, and Shanghai zinc followed slightly [8][9] - **Industrial Logic**: New zinc production in Xinjiang, lower zinc concentrate processing fees, and expected reduction in domestic zinc production in November [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Observe the breakthrough of the 22800 resistance level in the short term, and sell on rallies in the long term [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices should be chased with caution, and alumina is relatively weak [12] - **Industrial Logic**: Weakening Fed's year - end rate - cut expectation, high domestic electrolytic aluminum production, and weakening demand [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take short - term profits on rallies and pay attention to the开工 rate of downstream processing enterprises [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel has fallen significantly [16] - **Industrial Logic**: Accumulation of nickel inventory at home and abroad, and weakening downstream demand for stainless steel [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds and pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened low and fluctuated widely, closing slightly lower [19] - **Industrial Logic**: Marginal improvement in fundamentals with continuous inventory reduction, but short - term negative impact from news [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for the market to stabilize in the range of 81600 - 83000 [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short - term investment ratings for different varieties include: short - term decline for palm oil and rapeseed oil; short - term adjustment for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil; and a cautious bearish view on jujubes, with a warning of a potential short - term rebound for live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term fluctuations. Brazilian rainfall is expected to recover in the next 15 days. The current tariff situation has a slight adjustment, and the cost of domestic soybean meal has some support. The main contract is in a large - range market below the previous high. After a short - term rebound, it needs to be sorted out. Be cautious about chasing long positions [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term fluctuations. High port inventory and the off - season of downstream consumption put pressure on the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports the far - month contracts. Recently, it has rebounded following soybean meal. Be cautious about chasing long positions [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. It has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand, with expected continuous inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October and November. Indonesian production increase and market doubts about B50 are negative factors. Hold existing short positions with caution [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term adjustment. The harvest of US soybeans and the lack of progress in US biodiesel policy provide no positive support. Domestic soybean oil inventory is higher than the five - year average, and supply is sufficient in the short term. Follow palm oil's decline. Be cautious about short - selling [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term decline. Low oil mill operating rates, market's reluctance to sell and price - holding mentality, and the consumption peak season are offset by the lack of positive drivers from the Sino - Canadian meeting. The market is falling due to risk aversion [1] - **Cotton**: Weak and volatile. New cotton from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries increases supply pressure. Although Brazil is accelerating exports, India's MSP provides some support. Domestically, new cotton is about to be harvested, inventory has recovered, and downstream demand is weak. There is resistance to upward movement [1] - **Jujubes**: Cautiously bearish. Large - scale harvesting is coming, and the market is highly volatile due to capital. The future fundamentals are expected to be loose. Short - term, suggest reducing short positions as the premium is being repaired [1] - **Live Pigs**: Be wary of short - term rebounds. The supply pressure in December is expected to increase due to the delayed supply from second - fattening in October. The demand is gradually stabilizing. On the market, it is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and beware of the rebound risk of the 01 contract [1] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.629 million tons, a decrease of 102,000 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons from last week. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal were 8.02 days, an increase of 0.06 days from October 24 [3] - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal was 3,026 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,103.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous day [2] Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 31, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 7,100 tons, unchanged from last week; the unexecuted contracts were 7,100 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week [5] - **Market Situation**: The global rapeseed production has recovered this year. In China, rapeseed meal is in a destocking state, but the demand is in the off - season due to the end of the aquaculture season [5] Palm Oil - **Market Data**: As of October 31, 2025, the national key area's commercial inventory of palm oil was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons from last week. The production in Malaysia from October 1 - 31 increased by 5.55% compared to the same period last month, and the export volume increased by 5.19% [8] - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil was 8,664 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day. The national average price was 8,663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan from the previous day [6] Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested, and precipitation in major cotton - growing areas will decrease in early November. In India, the MSP acquisition has been delayed due to heavy rainfall, and the daily new cotton listing volume is about 12,000 tons. As of mid - October, the new cotton listing volume in Pakistan was 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase [9] - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic new cotton picking progress is 87.1%, the inspection volume exceeds 1.93 million tons, and the sales progress is 14.2%. The Xinjiang mainstream machine - picked seed cotton price has risen to 6.32 yuan/kg, and the cumulative average price of lint cotton has increased to around 14,500 yuan/ton. The downstream demand has not changed much [10] Jujubes - **Production Area Situation**: Large - scale harvesting is expected. Merchants in Xinjiang are actively purchasing, and the final production reduction situation remains to be seen. The inventory of 36 sample points has increased to 9,348 tons, a month - on - month increase of 245 tons [14] - **Sales Area Situation**: Large - scale arrivals have not started yet. The price of sporadic goods is significantly higher than the same - grade goods in the same period last year. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and consumption has not started significantly [14] Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The national sample enterprise's live pig inventory in October was 38.3901 million, a 1.5% increase from the previous month; the monthly slaughter volume was 10.6976 million heads, a 4.29% decrease from the previous month. The national average price of live pigs was 12,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day [16] - **Market Situation**: In October, large - scale enterprises accelerated slaughter, and the planned slaughter volume in November decreased by 2.54% compared to the actual slaughter volume in October. The demand of downstream slaughtering has increased, and the inventory situation has stabilized [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1][7] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][10] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1][13] - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish [1][17] Core Views of the Report - For rebar, weekly production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory continued to decline, with weak supply and demand in the off - season, and iron water production decreased significantly, and mid - term it will run in a range with potential short - term weakness [1][4][5] - For hot rolled coil, both apparent demand and production recovered, inventory decreased slightly but remained higher than the same period in previous years, and mid - term it will run in a range with potential short - term correction [1][4][5] - For iron ore, iron water production decreased significantly this week due to environmental protection and maintenance, with mills reducing inventory and ports accumulating inventory, and short - term ore prices will fluctuate weakly [1][6][7] - For coke, the second round of price increases has fully landed, and the expectation of the third round is strengthening. Although iron water production has declined, the supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and prices will remain strong [1][9][10] - For coking coal, coal mine production and operating rates decreased slightly, supply may tighten in November, and although demand weakened marginally, the supply - demand pattern is still healthy, with prices remaining strong [1][12][13] - For manganese silicon, production area supply remains high, downstream demand weakened marginally, inventory increased, and short - term cost provides some support, but overall it's bearish [1][16][17] - For ferrosilicon, production area supply remains high, downstream demand weakened marginally, inventory increased significantly, and it's bearish due to the loose fundamentals and potential upward pressure on coal prices [1][16][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Variety View**: Rebar shows weak supply - demand in the off - season with iron water production decline, and hot rolled coil has recovered demand and production but high inventory [4] - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of rebar and hot rolled coil mostly declined, and there were changes in basis, futures spreads, and other indicators [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Rebar has limited upward and downward drivers, running in a mid - term range with potential short - term weakness; hot rolled coil runs in a mid - term range with potential short - term correction [5] Iron Ore - **Variety View**: This week, iron water production decreased significantly due to environmental protection and maintenance, mills reduced inventory, ports accumulated inventory, and external ore arrivals increased significantly, with a neutral - bearish static fundamentals [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, as production cuts and supply increases put pressure on ore prices [7] Coke - **Variety View**: The second round of price increases has fully landed, the third - round expectation is strengthening, and although iron water production has declined, the supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, with some mills still replenishing inventory [9] - **Market Data**: Futures prices of coke contracts decreased slightly, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as inventory and production [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [10] Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Coal mine production and operating rates decreased slightly, supply may tighten in November due to over - production checks and political instability in Mongolia, and although demand weakened marginally, the supply - demand pattern is still healthy [12] - **Market Data**: Futures prices of coking coal contracts decreased slightly, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as inventory and production [11] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [13] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Variety View**: For manganese silicon, production area supply is high, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory increased; for ferrosilicon, production area supply remains high, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory increased significantly [16] - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon had different changes, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production and inventory [15] - **Operation Suggestion**: For manganese silicon, cautiously bearish with short - term cost support; for ferrosilicon, bearish due to loose fundamentals and potential upward pressure on coal prices [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - Overall, most energy and chemical products face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and oil price trends, while natural gas has some upward support due to seasonal demand [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market review**: On October 31, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.68%, Brent up 0.62%, and SC down 0.67% [7][8] - **Basic logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2024. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season [9][10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - **Market review**: On October 31, the PG main contract closed at 4,301 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [14] - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the cost has declined. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - **Market review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [18] - **Basic logic**: Cost support has weakened. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand has limited restocking motivation [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - **Market review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 [24] - **Basic logic**: Spot prices have not kept up with the increase, and the basis has weakened. There is high inventory - removal pressure in the future, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - **Market review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 [28] - **Basic logic**: Low - valuation support exists, and the loss of a single variety has expanded. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand surplus [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a high contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [30] - **Basic logic**: Supply has domestic reduction and overseas increase. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels, and the cost of crude oil is under pressure [30] - **Strategy recommendation**: Consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the PX range of [6580 - 6680] [31] PTA - **Market review**: TA05 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,536 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,586 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic logic**: Processing fees are low. Supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory build - up in November [33] - **Strategy recommendation**: Exit short positions at low prices and consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the TA range of [4560 - 4650] [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [36] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. Supply pressure is expected to rise, and there is an expected inventory build - up in November. Valuation is low, but there is no upward drive [36] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and consider short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [37] Methanol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [40] - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses spot price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [40] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices and the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2110 - 2190] [42] Urea - **Market review**: UR05 closed at 1,703 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,736 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,625 yuan/ton [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. Valuation is low, and there is a risk of downward movement [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1610 - 1640] [46] Natural Gas - **Market review**: On October 31, the NG main contract closed at 4.205 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 2.69% [49] - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and demand has increased due to the approaching heating season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50] - **Strategy recommendation**: The cooling temperature supports the gas price, but there is upward pressure. Focus on the NG range of [4.050 - 4.250] [51] Asphalt - **Market review**: On October 31, the BU main contract closed at 3,244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [53] - **Basic logic**: The price is affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand have both decreased, and inventory has declined [54] - **Strategy recommendation**: The valuation is high, and supply is sufficient. Short positions can be held lightly. Focus on the BU range of [3250 - 3350] [55] Glass - **Market review**: FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, up 3 [58] - **Basic logic**: There is intense capital gaming. Inventory has increased counter - seasonally, and supply is under pressure due to profitable production processes [59] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously participate. Bullish in the short - term technically, bearish on rebounds in the medium - term. Focus on the FG range of [1080 - 1130] [59] Soda Ash - **Market review**: SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, down 26 [62] - **Basic logic**: It rebounds with the black building materials sector. Inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level. Supply is expected to increase [63] - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should sell at high prices. Hold the long position of the soda - glass spread. Focus on the SA range of [1220 - 1270] [63]