1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For silicon manganese, the supply - demand contradiction is yet to accumulate, the cost side strongly supports the price, but new warehouse receipts in the short term will suppress the upward price limit. It is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5750, 6000] [4][5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the warehouse receipts are on a high - level downward trend but still high in absolute value, suppressing the upward price limit. It is expected to move within a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5550, 5700] [49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The weekly output has returned to the pre - parade level, and the operating rate has increased by 0.93%. Northern production areas are relatively stable, while some factories in southern Guangxi and Guizhou have resumed production. Yunnan's operating rate has remained at around 95% for three consecutive weeks, and the daily output is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. As of September 12, the national silicon manganese output was 214,130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,295 tons; the operating rate was 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93% [4][8] - Demand: The molten iron output has returned to the pre - parade level, but the rebar output has decreased week - on - week, dragging down the demand for silicon manganese. As of September 12, the weekly demand for silicon manganese was 122,314 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,354 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price of a landmark steel mill is 5,800 yuan/ton [4][13] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 166,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,300 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 61,400, a decrease of 1,400 from last Friday. As of September 12, the total valid forecasts are 2,994, an increase of 1,995 from the previous day. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 322,200 tons, and the inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase [4] Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices at ports have rebounded slightly this week. The total shipment volume of the three major countries is 949,300 tons, basically the same as the previous period. The arrival volume is 359,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 231,900 tons, with the reduction mainly from South Africa. The electricity price in Ningxia has increased by 0.02 yuan/kWh, and the current comprehensive electricity price of manufacturers is 0.4 yuan/kWh, while the electricity prices in other production areas remain stable [4] Market Price - As of September 12, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it is 5,600 (+ 50) yuan/ton; in Guangxi, it is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 5,850 (+ 100) yuan/ton [7] River Steel Silicon Manganese Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon manganese tendering by River Steel is 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 17,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to August and 6,500 tons compared to the same period last year [16] Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: This week, the national output and operating rate of silicon iron have decreased week - on - week. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have stable operations, while Shaanxi has slightly reduced production. As of September 12, the weekly output of silicon iron is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons; the operating rate is 34.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [49][54] - Demand: This week, the demand for silicon iron converted from the five major steel products is 19,737 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 339 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by a landmark steel mill is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity has increased by 317 tons compared to August. In terms of non - steel demand, the magnesium ingot output in August is basically the same as that in July, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [49] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 69,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 16,500, a decrease of 1,800 from last Friday. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 85,300 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from last Friday [49] Cost and Profit - Recently, the semi - coke market has been stable. The current small - material quotation in Fugu area is 640 - 690 yuan/ton. The electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai have both increased. In the short term, the cost side of silicon iron has strong support [49] Market Price - The spot prices in the main production areas have increased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [52] River Steel Silicon Iron Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by River Steel is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 3,151 tons, an increase of 317 tons compared to August and 650 tons compared to the same period last year [60]

沪铜周报 美联储降息预期拉满，铜震荡走强 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-09-12 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】美非农大幅下修，美国CPI数据符合预期，美联储9月降息预期拉满，铜宏微共振， 铜上方空间打开，建议铜多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现 【策略展望】 整体而言，宏观情绪积极，美联储9月降息预期拉满，美元疲软铜价走强。基本面上，矿供应扰 动和金九银十旺季需求复苏，国内铜社会库存偏紧，铜宏微共振，上方空间打开。短期建议前期 铜多单继续持有，部分可逐步逢高止盈兑现，企业卖出套保可逢高布局时机，锁定合理利润，警 惕美联储降息预期落空和需求证伪带来铜价高位回落风险。 中长期，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和重要的贵金属平替资产配置，叠加铜精矿紧张和绿色 铜需求爆发，对铜长期看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，83000】，伦铜关注区间【9900，11000】 美元/吨 【操作策略】 策略：多单持有 【风险提示】 政策不及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel futures first declined and then rose, with a similar pattern to the previous week, showing a generally weak and volatile trend. After the military parade, pig iron production quickly recovered to over 2.4 million tons. The supply - demand of hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, while the contradiction in steel was mainly concentrated in rebar. The inventory in Hangzhou continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in history, and the warehouse receipt volume kept increasing, leading to rising delivery pressure. The contradiction in the raw material end was not obvious for the time being. The high pig iron production supported the demand for raw materials. The iron ore inventory was stable, the recovery speed of coking coal production was average, and the overall inventory decreased [3]. - Currently, the downstream demand for construction steel has not shown the characteristics of the peak season, and the month - on - month change in apparent demand is not significant. The inventory in East China and the delivery pressure are expected to continue to suppress the upside space of rebar. However, September - October is also a period prone to macro - policy disturbances. In 2023, the "trillion - yuan treasury bond" and last year's "924" market both brought about stage - by - stage increases. Currently, the overall valuation of the black series is not high, and the policy orientation of "anti - involution" and "raising the price level" will also limit the downside space of the market. At present, it is a game between weak overall demand and a strong macro - environment. The negative feedback contradiction in the current supply - demand level is accumulating, and the risk of a callback still needs to be vigilant [3]. - In terms of spot - futures, the price difference between rebar in Guangzhou and that in East China is at an absolute low. At the same time, the 01 basis based on East China is running stably and strongly. A 01 cash - and - carry operation can be considered for Guangzhou rebar [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Monthly Data - In July 2025, the monthly production of pig iron was 70.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%, and the cumulative production was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The monthly production of crude steel was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4%, and the cumulative production was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. The monthly production of steel was 122.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, and the cumulative production was 860.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The monthly steel imports were 0.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.4%, and the cumulative imports were 3.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. The monthly steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.4%, and the cumulative exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [5]. Five - Major Steel Weekly Data - As of September 12, 2025, the weekly production of rebar was 2.1193 million tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1%. The weekly consumption was 1.9807 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5%. The inventory was 6.5386 million tons, an increase of 138,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.46%. For wire rods, the weekly production was 0.849 million tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8%. The weekly consumption was 0.84 million tons, an increase of 15,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9%. The inventory was 1.2038 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13%. For hot - rolled coils, the weekly production was 3.2514 million tons, an increase of 109,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 0%. The weekly consumption was 3.2616 million tons, an increase of 208,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1%. The inventory was 3.7332 million tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13%. For cold - rolled coils, the weekly production was 0.8467 million tons, a decrease of 12,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.59%. The weekly consumption was 0.8616 million tons, an increase of 41,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.35%. The inventory was 1.7837 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53%. For medium - heavy plates, the weekly production was 1.5067 million tons, a decrease of 58,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.09%. The weekly consumption was 1.4864 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.56%. The inventory was 1.8868 million tons, an increase of 20,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.72%. The total weekly production of the five major steels was 8.5724 million tons, a decrease of 34,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.26%. The total weekly consumption was 8.43 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.15%. The total inventory was 15.15 million tons, an increase of 139,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.76% [6]. Steel Production Profit - On September 11, 2025, for rebar - blast furnace in East China, the profit was 75 with a change of - 10; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the profit was - 3 with a change of 0; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the profit was - 123 with a change of 0; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the profit was 197 with a change of 0. In North China, for rebar - blast furnace, the profit was 55 with a change of - 10; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the profit was - 63 with a change of 0; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the profit was - 147 with a change of 0; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the profit was 96 with a change of 0. In Central China, for rebar - blast furnace, the profit was 175 with a change of 0; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the profit was - 55 with a change of 0; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the profit was - 185 with a change of 0; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the profit was 175 with a change of - 10 [21]. Steel Demand - In the real estate high - frequency data, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 4.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 10% [28]. - Regarding cement and concrete demand, the cement outbound volume has been stable recently, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27%. The concrete delivery volume is relatively balanced, and the absolute level is comparable to that of the same period last year, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14% [31]. - In August, the steel export volume decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a high level in the same period [37]. Steel Inventory and Basis - The rebar basis maintained a relatively strong trend. The basis for the October contract was at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the basis for the January 01 contract was at a neutral level. Currently, the rebar warehouse receipt volume is the highest in the same period, strongly suppressing the October contract, and the near - month basis may remain at a relatively high level. The hot - rolled coil basis remained stable this week [51][56]. - The rebar monthly spread was running at a low level this week with limited fluctuations. A large number of rebar warehouse receipts continued to suppress the October contract. The 10 - 1 month spread of hot - rolled coils has strengthened recently. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are relatively stable, with fewer warehouse receipts, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is at a neutral level [61][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of wide - range fluctuation. Supply continues to increase, but terminal demand is strong, evidenced by the reduction in total inventory. Prices are supported in the short - term and are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - The State Council plans to conduct comprehensive reform pilot projects on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions. China's August PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year, with the previous value at - 3.6%, and the month - on - month change turned flat from a 0.2% decline last month. August CPI was - 0.4% year - on - year, with the previous value at 0%, and the month - on - month change was flat. China's exports in August increased by 4.4% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased by 1.3%. US inflation was in line with expectations, with August CPI increasing by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The August core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The US non - farm annual revision was worse than expected, with a downward revision of 911,000. The market is pricing in three interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged [3]. 3.2 Supply - side - This week, lithium carbonate production continued to increase, reaching over 20,000 tons weekly and hitting a new high for the year. The significant increase in spodumene production offset the reduction in mica and salt lake production. As of September 12, lithium carbonate production was 21,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 250 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 48.64%, a week - on - week increase of 0.58% [4][9]. 3.3 Demand - side - From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 181,000 units, a 3% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period last September and a 1% decrease compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 59.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.752 million units, a 25% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 179,000 units, a 5% year - on - year increase compared to the same period last September and a 12% increase compared to the previous month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 58.1%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 9.122 million units, a 33% year - on - year increase [4]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of lithium ore decreased. The African SC 5% was quoted at $610 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $800 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton compared to last week; the lithium mica market price was 2,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 12, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 65,367 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,830 yuan, and the industry profit was 7,809 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 920 yuan [4][48][50]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of September 11, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 138,512 tons, a decrease of 1,580 tons compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 36,213 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,262 tons. The total lithium carbonate inventory continued to decline, the smelter inventory decreased rapidly, and the downstream material factories continued to replenish their stocks [5][33]. 3.6 Market Outlook - This week, the new quotes for battery - grade lithium carbonate mostly fluctuated around the flat - water level, the basis strengthened, and the large - discount supplies decreased compared to the previous period. Lithium salt factories still had a price - holding sentiment, and most of the spot orders were pre - sold. The restocking enthusiasm of downstream material factories was fair, and market circulation improved. Overall, lithium carbonate production continued to increase, but the total inventory also decreased synchronously, indicating strong terminal demand. Prices are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations in the short - term [5]. 3.7 Price List of the Lithium - battery Industry - The prices of most products in the lithium - battery industry decreased this week. For example, the 6% CIF spodumene price was $800 per ton, a 3.61% decrease compared to last week; the battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 71,000 yuan per ton, a 3.4% decrease compared to last week. However, some products such as the 523 ternary material and 523 ternary precursor saw price increases [6]. 3.8 Market Review - As of September 12, LC2511 closed at 71,160 yuan per ton, a 4.2% decrease compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 yuan per ton, a 3.4% decrease compared to last week, and the basis changed from a premium to a slight discount. The main contract position was 3.09 million. The main contract mostly declined this week. The news of Ningde's resumption of production had a negative impact on market sentiment [7]. 3.9 Production of Other Products - As of September 12, the production of lithium hydroxide was 5,235 tons, a week - on - week increase of 115 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 36.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%. The production of lithium iron phosphate was 78,307 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 68.9%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2% [11][14]. 3.10 Downstream Inventory - As of September 12, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 49,550 tons, an increase of 1,350 tons compared to last week. The finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly, and the industry was in a situation of strong supply and demand [37]. 3.11 Cost - side - As of September 12, the African SC 5% was quoted at $610 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $800 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton compared to last week; the lithium mica market price was 2,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week. Lithium ore prices fluctuated around lithium salt prices, with low spot circulation [48]. 3.12 Profit of Other Products - As of September 12, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 68,514 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 938 yuan, and the industry profit was 6,600 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 184 yuan. The production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 34,362 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 573 yuan per ton, and it was in a loss state of 943 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week [53][56].

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑 PTA ★ 谨慎看空 加工费整体偏低，新装置投产预期叠加前期检修装置复产，开工负荷略有 提升，供应端压力有所增加；市场存"金九银十"消费旺季预期，需求端 略显偏好，下游聚酯及终端织造开工负荷持续回升。9 月 pta 供需紧平衡 预期四季度宽松，叠加美联储 9 月降息概率增加，地缘风险尚未解除，市 场风险偏好提升。OPEC+9 月按计划增产，油价震荡偏弱。基差偏弱，但 TA 加工费整体偏低，关注做扩加工费机会。策略：空单谨持，关注做扩 PTA 加工费机会。 乙二醇 ★ 谨慎看空 国内装置略微降负、海外装置变动不大，到港及进口相对较低；市场仍存 消费旺季预期，下游聚酯及终端织造开工负荷持续回升。同时乙二醇库存 整体偏低，对盘面价格有所支撑。9 月累库压力不大。乙二醇库存整体偏 低，对盘面价格有所支撑。近期市场交易新装置投产预期（久泰新材料近 期投产、裕龙石化 9 月底前投产），区间震荡偏弱，谨慎看空。策略：空 单持有，关注逢高布空机会。 甲醇 ★ 谨慎看空 本周整体检修量有所提升，开工负荷下滑但依旧维持高位；海外甲醇装置 负荷再次提升且处于同期高位，与此同时，甲醇月度到港量亦处近五年同 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美豆地区未来十五天降雨低于正常水平。本周豆粕库存继续累库，周二美豆优良率 | | 豆粕 | | 虽有环比下降，但低于市场预期。周六 USDA 公布 9 月供需报告，美豆产量及期末 | | | 短线整理趋弱 | 库存环比调增。但全球大豆期末库存环比调降。报告对美豆略偏空。隔夜美豆受报 | | ★ | | 告影响波动较大，最终收涨。由于美豆收获临近，叠加国内短期供应充足，市场看 | | | | 多追多谨慎对待，注意仓位控制及风控管理。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。上周中加会晤后，尚未 | | 菜粕 | | 有新的进展出现。中方延期对加籽的反倾调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日， | | ★ | 短线整理 | 但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关 | | | | 注中加近期会议结果。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且中印存在采买需求。基本面展 | | 棕榈油 | | 望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。美国议员提交法案反对将小型 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Silver: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Copper: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Zinc: ★, expected to rebound, recommended to wait and see for short - selling opportunities [1] - Lead: ★, expected to rebound [1] - Tin: ★, price stabilizing [1] - Aluminum: ★★, price trending stronger [1] - Nickel: ★, expected to rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★, bullish view [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, wide - range oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of the year. Gold, silver, and copper are supported by multiple factors and are recommended for long - term strategic allocation and short - term long positions. Zinc has a supply - increase and demand - decrease outlook in the long term, suitable for short - selling on rebounds. Other metals also show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions [1][3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of the year. Gold has support due to short - term geopolitical variables and long - term global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical restructuring [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: US consumer confidence data is weak, economic growth is downgraded, and major central banks will announce interest rate decisions. Gold may break through to new highs in the short term and enter a long - term bull market. Silver has strong fundamentals with positive policies, high demand, and limited supply [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions for gold and silver are recommended. Gold should be monitored if it fails to break through the high of 842. Silver has support around 9800. Long - term upward trends for both remain unchanged [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly and stood above the 80,000 - yuan mark [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, processing fees are deeply inverted, and production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to pick up, and social inventory is at a low level, resulting in a tight balance between supply and demand throughout the year [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the expected Fed interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand factors, it is recommended to hold long positions in copper. Long - term optimism is maintained due to strategic resource status and green demand [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. Demand is expected to improve in the peak season, but downstream purchases are based on rigid needs [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although the Fed is likely to cut interest rates and LME zinc is strong, more macro - micro resonance is needed for further upward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continued to rebound, while alumina was under pressure [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. Production increased slightly in August, and inventory decreased. The demand side shows a peak - season effect. For alumina, bauxite supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise start - up rates [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilized and rebounded, and stainless steel showed a slight rebound [16] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is a supply - demand differentiation within the domestic nickel industry chain, with high pressure on refined nickel supply and tightness in the nickel sulfate segment. For stainless steel, inventory is decreasing, but there is pressure on terminal digestion [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take small long positions in nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed high with a slight increase [20] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply continues to increase, while terminal demand is strong. Total inventory is decreasing, and the price has support at the bottom, resulting in short - term wide - range oscillation [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see within the range of [70700 - 72100] [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [3] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [3] 2. Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and oil prices are trending downward. Short positions should be held [1]. - LPG: Cost - end drags, and there is pressure on the upside. Light - position short attempts are recommended [1]. - L: Short - position trend continues. Wait for a pullback to try long positions [1]. - PP: Short - position trend continues. Pay attention to the support at integer levels and try long positions on pullbacks [1]. - PVC: Fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand. Be cautious about short - chasing [1]. - PX: Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose. Hold short positions and sell call options [1]. - PTA: Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose in Q4. Hold short positions and expand processing margins on pullbacks [2]. - MEG: Supply - demand is in a tight - balance, but cost support is weakening. Hold short positions and look for high - level short - selling opportunities [2]. - Methanol: Fundamentals are weak, but look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low levels [2]. - Urea: Domestic fundamentals are loose. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities on the 01 contract [2]. - Asphalt: High valuation and weak cost - end. Hold short positions [3]. - Glass: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend. Observe the market [3]. - Soda ash: Short - term fundamentals are less negative. Short - term bullish, medium - to long - term bearish [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with WTI down 2.86%, Brent down 1.66%, and SC up 0.68% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks are controllable; OPEC+ plans to increase production in October; US oil consumption peak season ends, and demand support weakens. There is a high probability that prices will be pushed down to around $60 in the medium - to long - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: IEA expects 2025 supply to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day; OPEC+ production in August was 42.4 million barrels per day. OPEC predicts 2025 global oil demand growth of 1.29 million barrels per day. As of September 5, US commercial crude and refined product inventories increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the $60 break - even point for new shale oil wells. SC focus range is [470 - 490] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 11, the PG main contract closed at 4453 yuan/ton, up 0.36% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream crude oil has supply - demand imbalance, and LPG is pressured on the upside. Supply and demand are relatively stable, with a slight increase in inventory [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PG focus range is [4400 - 4500] [13]. L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7209 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 29.0% [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the short - position trend continues. Production is expected to recover next week, and the demand side is strengthening [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pullback to try long positions. L focus range is [7150 - 7250] [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 6939 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is insufficient. Production is expected to decline this week, and downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support at integer levels and try long positions on pullbacks. PP focus range is [6900 - 7000] [22]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 4847 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.0% [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation. Production is expected to decline next week [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about short - chasing. V focus range is [4800 - 4900] [27]. PX - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6781 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, and demand is weak but expected to improve. Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options. PX511 focus range is [6680 - 6785] [31]. PTA - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PTA spot price in East China was 4585 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, while demand is showing signs of recovery. TA processing margins are low [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and expand PTA processing margins on pullbacks. TA01 focus range is [4670 - 4720] [35]. MEG - **Market Review**: On September 5, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing production, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is improving, and inventory is low. Cost support is weakening [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and look for high - level short - selling opportunities. EG01 focus range is [4255 - 4300] [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the methanol spot price in East China was 2310 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure increases, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low levels. MA01 focus range is [2370 - 2400] [42].

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3092 | ー17 | 热卷01 | 3334 | -8 | | 螺纹05 | 3145 | -11 | 热卷05 | 3340 | -6 | | 螺纹10 | 3006 | ー17 | 热卷10 | 3372 | -5 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2990 | 0 | 张家港废钢 | 2080 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3170 | 0 | 热卷： 天津 | 3320 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3220 | -10 | 热卷:上海 | 3380 | 0 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3240 | -10 | 热卷:杭州 | 3410 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3260 | -20 | 热卷:广州 | 3370 | O | | 螺纹:成都 | 3260 | -10 | 热卷:成都 | 3520 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 美国 CPI 数据符合预期，降息预期强化，另外地缘局势升级扩大中，黄金有支撑。中 | | 黄金 | 多单持有 | 长期主要国家政策双宽松，地缘格局重塑，央行继续买黄金，黄金资产配置需求强 | | ★★ | | 烈。长期黄金继续战略配置。短期谨防衰退忧虑交易 | | | | 降息预期和对经济前景不确定性共同作用，白银高位震荡。白银自身由于双宽政策 | | 白银 | 多单持有 | 积极，中长期全球流动性和各国再工业化，使得需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，供需 | | ★★ | | 缺口明显，白银向上趋势不变。短期关注美元流动性风险 | | | | 美国 CPI 数据符合预期，美就业数据疲软，美联储降息几乎板上钉钉，中东地缘风险 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 激增，美元指数走弱，金九银十旺季预期叠加供应或边际收敛，建议铜前期多单继 | | ★ | | 续持有，中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪回暖，伦锌走强，带动沪锌止跌反弹，但继续上行需要更多宏微共 | | 锌 | ...