| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 ★ | 谨慎看空 | 螺纹产量及表需环比环比下降，库存正常去化。杭州地区库存绝对水平虽仍较高，但已 降幅已正常。螺纹自身基本面相对平衡。铁水产量环比再降，12 月钢厂检修较多，对 | | | | 建筑钢材影响较大。钢材整体缺少强驱动，或维持区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量及表需均小幅下降，库存变化不大，维持近年来同期最高水平，去库不畅。现 | | ★ | | 货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动，热卷表现或继续弱于螺纹。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续有继续减量预期，关注其降幅。钢厂增库，港口增库。 | | ★ | 空单减持 | 外矿发到货双降，阶段性支撑矿价。减产主导下，矿价承压。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第二轮提降，焦企生产积极性尚可，部分地区受环保要求主动执行限产措 | | 焦炭 | | 施，产区供应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，12 月钢厂检修较多。自身 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 供需结构维持宽松，前期盘面快速下行后行情或有反复，但整体维持下行趋势，谨慎 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term adjustment**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term consolidation**: Palm oil [1] - **Short - term bullish oscillation**: Soybean oil [1] - **Range - bound oscillation**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Upside pressure**: Cotton [1] - **Short - term rebound**: Red dates [1] - **Rebound and sell short**: Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report Soybean Meal - The purchase of US soybeans has started, but the US market has doubts about the optimistic outlook for US soybean exports. Weak export shipment data has led to a consolidation of US soybeans at high levels. This week, the latest soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but were higher year - on - year, with short - term supply sufficient. The US Department of Agriculture's December report on US soybeans was basically flat month - on - month, and the ending stocks were also flat. There was a short - term adjustment, and there was a tendency for a stop - fall consolidation. Short - selling should be cautious [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory, zero crushing, and low imports, but port inventories are still higher year - on - year. In the off - season of consumption, spot prices are reduced to destock. There is no major expected change in the fundamentals. It follows the trend of soybean meal, with a short - term adjustment. The short - term trend is treated as a range above 2270 yuan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of China - Canada trade [1][7]. Palm oil - On November, Malaysian palm oil inventory data showed a month - on - month increase, maintaining a stock - building state, and the export of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of December decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. Weak data depressed the futures price, and it closed down yesterday. It is in short - term consolidation [1][10]. Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but was still higher than the five - year average. It closed slightly down yesterday. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - growing areas. It is in a short - term bullish oscillation, and a large - range market is expected this week. Attention should be paid to the boost from the palm oil side [1]. Rapeseed Oil - Currently, coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. The port inventory has continued to decline month - on - month, but there is diversification in imports. The latest data on Canadian rapeseed shows that the 2025 production is higher than market expectations, with a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. Rapeseed oil rebounded technically after hitting a previous low yesterday, and the stabilization needs to be observed. It is in range - bound oscillation [1]. Cotton - The US cotton harvest is nearing the end, and Brazil has started the new - season cotton planting. The proportion of weather - related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to move in an oscillatory manner. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, and the sales have been relatively fast. The circulation of low - basis resources in the spot market has decreased, and the cost - side support has increased, but the upward adjustment of the production forecast needs to be noted. The downstream textile enterprises' cash flow has been repaired, and the demand resilience has been reflected. The narrowing of the decline in foreign trade in November has further supported the cotton price, but there is still pressure from high inventory and a dense hedging pressure area. It is under upside pressure [1][12][14]. Red Dates - At the end of the acquisition, the spot price rebound has slowed down the downward trend. With the peak of new - crop listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, the market volatility will increase. High inventory still exerts obvious pressure on the price rebound. In a situation of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. Most of the premium caused by speculation about a large - scale production cut of new - season red dates since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The downward trend of the futures market has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. The spot price has stopped falling under the cooling background. Short - term rebound opportunities are recommended to be observed [1][18]. Live Pigs - The short - and medium - term market supply pressure is still high, and the demand increase is limited. The spot price is difficult to support. The futures market is disturbed by epidemic prevention and control and macro - sentiment, and there is differentiation in the price difference between contracts. The contract 03 is more likely to be disturbed by short - term funds. For contract 01, the market has started to trade the expectation of the peak - season curing demand and the large - scale slaughter in the second half of the month, and the market volatility is expected to increase. For contract 01, short - term long - position risks need to be avoided. The contract 03 lacks fundamental support but has intense capital games. Attention can be paid to short - selling on rebounds and the 3 - 5 reverse - spread opportunity. Attention should be paid to the spot price follow - up and curing situation [1][21]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 937 million tons, a decrease of 20.60 million tons month - on - month and an increase of 227.49 million tons year - on - year. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 715.52 million tons, a decrease of 18.44 million tons (2.51%) month - on - month and an increase of 168.49 million tons (30.80%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 116.19 million tons, a decrease of 4.13 million tons (3.43%) month - on - month and an increase of 48.14 million tons (70.74%) year - on - year. The physical inventory days of soybean meal in 50 feed enterprises were 8.49 days, an increase of 0.32 days from the previous period and 0.77 days from the same period last year. The domestic supply - demand fundamentals have changed little, the oil mill crushing volume remains relatively high, and the soybean meal de - stocking process is slow, which suppresses the rise of the spot basis [4]. Rapeseed Meal - As of December 5, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, flat month - on - month; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons month - on - month; the unexecuted contract was 0 tons, flat month - on - month. The rapeseed meal spot market is dull, downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is cautious, the overall trading activity is insufficient, the delivery process is slow, and the effective demand release is limited. There is no strong driver in the off - season of consumption, and it follows the trend of soybean meal [7]. Palm Oil - As of December 5, 2025 (the 49th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 68.37 million tons, an increase of 3.02 million tons (4.62%) month - on - month and an increase of 16.70 million tons (32.32%) year - on - year. From December 1 - 10, the Malaysian palm oil export volume decreased by 16.41% compared with the same period last month. In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month, imports decreased by 36.12% month - on - month, exports decreased by 28.13% month - on - month, and inventory increased by 13.04% month - on - month [10]. Cotton - **International situation**: In the US, the new cotton harvest progress is 79%, and 123.7 million tons of new cotton have been inspected, with an inspection progress of about 40.2%. In late November, the precipitation in the main cotton - growing areas increased, which was not conducive to the harvest. In India, the daily new - cotton listing volume is 1.6 - 2.0 million tons, and nearly 4.25 million tons have been purchased under the Minimum Support Price (MSP), but there was still rainfall in the south and central regions in late November, which was not conducive to MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the non - main producing areas have started sowing the 2026 new - season cotton, with expected heavy rainfall in the main producing areas by the end of November [12]. - **Domestic situation**: The new - cotton picking is basically completed, the inspection volume exceeds 495 million tons, and the sales progress is relatively fast. The total national production is expected to increase by 26 million tons to 768 million tons, and the new - season lint cost is basically locked at 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. In October, the imported cotton volume was 22.3 million tons, almost flat month - on - month and 1.35 million tons higher than the same period. The national commercial inventory increased to 446 million tons, 15 million tons higher than the same period; the Xinjiang commercial inventory increased to 361 million tons, about 40 million tons higher than the same period; the inventory in the main inland provinces increased to 18.27 million tons, 0.16 million tons lower than the same period. The downstream demand has improved seasonally, the export decline in November has slowed down, and the textile and clothing export was 238.7 billion US dollars, a decrease of 5.1% year - on - year and an increase of 7.2% month - on - month [13]. Red Dates - **Supply**: The acquisition in Hotan, Qiemo, and Ruoqiang has ended, and the acquisition progress in other regions is about 80%. The prices in the producing areas are weak. In Kashgar, the acquisition of grey dates is coming to an end, with little unsold inventory, and jujube farmers have a price - holding attitude. In Aksu, the acquisition is also near the end, with a small amount of remaining inventory, and the price has risen slightly. In Alar, the acquisition is at the end, with little unsold inventory and a price increase [17]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 13,910 tons, an increase of 3,062 tons month - on - month and 270 tons lower than the same period [17]. - **Demand**: The trading in the Cui'erzhuang market is mainly for new products, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. The demand in the Ruyifang market is average [17]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In November, the breeding side had active slaughter, with fierce competition and high pressure on large - scale enterprises. The overall plan completion was not ideal. In December, the planned slaughter increased by 3.2%. The short - and medium - term supply pressure is high, but the long - term supply pressure is expected to gradually ease as the number of fertile sows decreased to 39.90 million in October [20]. - **Demand**: With the cooling, the curing and enema activities in the southwest region have increased, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate has rebounded, and the market has gradually entered a situation of both supply and demand growth [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Polysilicon: Strong [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: The gold - silver ratio is approaching the historical low range, and attention should be paid to fluctuations. Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver should not be chased high or shorted in the short term, and long - term positions should be held [2][3]. - Copper: The market sentiment is cautious. In the short term, it is recommended to move the stop - profit for previous long positions and wait for a rebound opportunity. In the medium and long term, copper is still bullish [4][6]. - Zinc: Macro and sector sentiment has cooled, and zinc prices are under pressure. In the medium and long term, it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][9]. - Aluminum: Terminal demand is weakening, and aluminum prices are falling from high levels. It is recommended to stop profit and wait and see in the short term [10][13]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are under pressure due to off - season inventory. It is recommended to sell on rallies [14][17]. - Lithium carbonate: Total inventory continues to decline, and it is recommended to go long on dips [18][21]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market review**: Silver first broke through $60 per ounce, and traders bet on further Fed easing and supply shortages [2]. - **Basic logic**: Wait for the Fed's interest - rate meeting; US employment data is mixed; central banks continue to buy gold; long - term gold benefits from multiple factors, and silver's trading logic requires caution in the short term [2][3]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, pay attention to the support of domestic gold at 935. Long - term value - oriented positions should continue to be held. Be vigilant about the high - volatility risk of silver [3]. Copper - **Market review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and consolidating [4]. - **Industrial logic**: Global copper concentrate supply remains tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and inventories are accumulating, but there is still a delivery risk [5]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, move the stop - profit for previous long positions and wait for a rebound. In the medium and long term, copper is still bullish. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai copper and London copper [6]. Zinc - **Market review**: Shanghai zinc is falling under pressure [7]. - **Industrial logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees are falling, and supply may shrink. Consumption is in the off - season, and short - term supply and demand are both weak, with inventory declining in the off - season [8]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure. Sell - hedging can be lightly positioned on rallies. In the medium and long term, sell on rallies. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai zinc and London zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market review**: Aluminum prices' rebound is under pressure, and alumina continues to be weak [10]. - **Industrial logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs may increase, and demand is structurally differentiated. For alumina, the supply is in an over - supply situation [12]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, stop profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory and the price range of Shanghai aluminum [13]. Nickel - **Market review**: Nickel prices' rebound is under pressure, and stainless steel is under pressure [14]. - **Industrial logic**: Indonesia plans to cut nickel production, but inventories are rising. Stainless steel consumption is in the off - season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the long term [16]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the change in stainless - steel inventory and the price range of nickel [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market review**: The main contract LC2605 opened high and closed low, and the commodity market was weak in the afternoon [18]. - **Industrial logic**: Total inventory has declined for 16 consecutive weeks. Terminal demand is strong, and prices have no room for a deep decline. There will be a correction recently, waiting for an opportunity to go long after stabilization [20]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Go long on dips in the range of [91000 - 95000] [21].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但近日美国市场对于美豆出口乐观前景出现质疑，疲软的出口装 | | | | 船同比数据，导致美豆高位陷入整理。本周最新大豆及豆粕库存环比减少，但同比 | | 豆粕 | 短线调整 | 偏高，短期供应暂充足。美农 12 月报告有关美豆部分，环比基本持平，期末库存 | | ★ | | 环比持平，未出现期末库存调增的市场预期，但全球期末库存调增，美豆隔夜收跌。 | | | | 国内豆粕受外盘影响，预计日内维持偏弱运行。关注前低附近技术企稳情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。进口多元化逐步替代中加进口矛盾问题，暂 | | ★ | 短线调整 | 无强驱动，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。昨日菜粕跟随豆粕价格下跌。短期走势暂以 2270 | | | | 元以上区间行情对待。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 11 月马棕榈油前 30 日出口数据维持弱势，产量环比略减，降幅不及出口。11 月下 | | 棕榈油 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 螺纹产量及表需环比环比下降，库存正常去化。杭州地区库存绝对水平虽仍较高，但已 降幅已正常。螺纹自身基本面相对平衡。铁水产量环比再降，12 月钢厂检修较多，对 | | ★ | | 建筑钢材影响较大。钢材整体缺少强驱动，或维持区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需均小幅下降，库存变化不大，维持近年来同期最高水平，去库不畅。现 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动，热卷表现或继续弱于螺纹。 | | 铁矿石 | 空单减持 | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续有继续减量预期，关注其降幅。钢厂增库，港口增库。 | | ★ | | 外矿发到货双降，阶段性支撑矿价。减产主导下，矿价承压。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦企生产积极性尚可，部分地区受环保要求主动执行限产措施，产区供应小幅下降。从 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，12 月钢厂检修较多。自身供需结构维持宽松，前期盘 面快速下行后行情或有反复，但整体维持下行趋势，谨慎操作。 | | | | 国内煤炭产量环比 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | 月 | 供给过剩叠加地缘缓和，油价弱势下行。地缘：俄乌地缘仍有扰动，12 8 日泽连斯基与英国、德国、法国首脑进行会晤；核心驱动：淡季供给 | | 原油 | | | | | 谨慎看空 | 过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油 | | ★ | | 激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注 | | | | 变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气走弱。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需 | | LPG | | 方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左右， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | L | | 期现共振下跌，基差走强。国内开工季节性回升，月内到港资源充足，供 | | | 空头延续 | 给端整体依旧充足。棚膜旺季逐步见顶，农膜开工率三连降。油价中期仍 | | ★ | | 存下移风 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高、中国央行连续 13 个月增持黄金，黄金价格维持高 | | | 长线持有 | 位，市场等待的美联储议息会议。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在， | | ★ | | 央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银与黄金走势逻辑劈叉，短期白银交易交割逼仓以及低库存，全球大财政均对白 | | | 长线持有 | 银长期有利。不过现货高升水、白银期货波动率飙升，短期不宜追高。连续 5 年有 | | ★★ | | 供给缺口，全球经济刺激、流动性维持宽松，长期做多逻辑不变 | | | | 政治局会议强调逆周期调节，美联储降息已经充分计价，市场情绪降温，基本面上， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 海内外铜库存均累库，高铜价对需求抑制作用明显，建议前期多单移动止盈，中长 | | ★ | | 期，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需双弱，国内淡季去库。锌冲 | | | 反弹 | 高回落，建 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short-term adjustment: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - Short-term consolidation: Palm oil [1] - Short-term bullish oscillation: Soybean oil [1] - Range oscillation: Rapeseed oil [1] - Cautiously bullish: Cotton [1] - Short-term rebound: Red dates, Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean meal**: Sino-US soybean procurement has started, but the US market has questioned the optimistic export prospects of US soybeans recently. The weak year-on-year export shipment data has led to a consolidation of US soybeans at a high level. The latest soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased week-on-week but were higher year-on-year, with short-term supply temporarily sufficient. Before the release of the USDA December report, the market expects the report to be bearish, with the possibility of a month-on-month increase in the global and US soybean ending stocks. Domestic soybean meal fell yesterday. It is expected to remain in a bearish adjustment before the release of the USDA report [1][3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory, zero crushing, and low imports, but port inventories are still higher year-on-year. Spot prices are reduced to destock during the off-season. There is no major expected change in the fundamentals. The long-term supply and demand are relatively strong, but the near-term port inventory pressure is high. Rapeseed meal followed the decline in soybean meal prices yesterday. The short-term trend is expected to be in the range above 2,270 yuan. Attention should be paid to the USDA December report and the follow-up progress of Sino-Canadian trade [1][6]. - **Palm oil**: The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 30 days of November remained weak, and the output decreased slightly month-on-month, with the decline less than that of exports. Floods occurred in Southeast Asia in mid-November, triggering market expectations of palm oil entering the production reduction season. Increased purchases from India boosted market sentiment. The futures price continued to consolidate at a high level after the rebound yesterday. However, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in November. As the data release approaches, be cautious about chasing long positions at high levels. For phased operations, pay attention to the opportunity to buy at low levels after the adjustment stabilizes [1][8]. - **Soybean oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased slightly month-on-month but was still higher than the five-year average. It closed slightly lower yesterday. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions of South American soybeans. It is expected to show a large-range trend this week [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Currently, coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. The port inventory continued to decline month-on-month, but the import sources are diversified, including Australian and Russian rapeseed. The latest data shows that the Canadian rapeseed output in 2025 is higher than market expectations, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. Rapeseed oil closed lower yesterday. Attention should be paid to the previous low for technical support [1]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton harvest is nearing completion, and Brazil has started the new planting season. The proportion of weather-related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to fluctuate. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, and sales have continued to be relatively fast. The circulation of low-basis resources in the spot market has decreased, and cost support has increased. The cash flow of downstream textile enterprises has recovered in recent months, showing demand resilience. The narrowing decline in foreign trade in November further supported cotton prices. However, the upward trend is still restricted by high inventories and a dense hedging pressure area. For operations, consider buying on dips and continue to pay attention to the medium- to long-term moderate recovery opportunity after the supply pressure is digested [1][12]. - **Red dates**: At the end of the acquisition, the spot price increase has slowed down the downward trend. As the peak season for new product listing and consumption approaches, market volatility will increase. High inventories still put significant pressure on the price rebound. In a situation of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. On the futures market, most of the premium caused by the speculation of a large reduction in new-season red date production since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The downward trend of the futures has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. With the cooling weather, the spot price has stopped falling. Short-term rebound opportunities are worth attention [1][15]. - **Live pigs**: The futures market has rebounded due to disruptions in epidemic prevention and control and macro sentiment, but the above logic has shown differentiation in the price spreads of different contracts. Therefore, the January contract is more likely to be affected by short-term capital. In the January contract, the market has started to price in the expectations of the peak pickling season and the large-scale slaughter at the end of the month, so market volatility is expected to increase. For the January contract, due to expected trading, secondary position limits, and the sentiment influence of the March contract, short-term long positions should be avoided. The March contract lacks fundamental support, but there is intense capital competition. Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds and the 3 - 5 reverse spread opportunity. Also, keep an eye on the spot price and pickling progress [1][18]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean meal - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,778 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan or 1.52% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,107.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan or 0.13% [2]. - **Inventory data**: As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.37 million tons, a decrease of 206,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.2749 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1552 million tons, a decrease of 184,400 tons or 2.51% from the previous week and an increase of 1.6849 million tons or 30.80% from the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a decrease of 41,300 tons or 3.43% from the previous week and an increase of 481,400 tons or 70.74% from the same period last year [3]. Rapeseed meal - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan or 1.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,474.74 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory data**: As of December 5, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 20 tons, an increase of 10 tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contract was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. Palm oil - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8,706 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.73% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,748 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.57% [7]. - **Inventory data**: As of December 5, 2025 (week 49), the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 683,700 tons, an increase of 30,200 tons or 4.62% from the previous week and an increase of 167,000 tons or 32.32% from the same period last year [8]. Cotton - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) was 13,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15,009 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.09% [9]. - **Supply and demand data**: In the US, the new cotton harvest progress reached 79%, and 1.237 million tons of new cotton had been inspected, with a progress of about 40.2%. In India, the daily new cotton listing was between 16,000 and 20,000 tons, and nearly 42,500 tons had been purchased at the MSP. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress was 73.87%, and the non-main producing areas had started sowing the 2026 new cotton. In China, the new cotton picking was almost completed, with more than 4.74 million tons inspected. The new cotton sales progress continued to be relatively fast, and the new-season lint cost was basically locked between 14,600 and 15,000 yuan/ton [10][11]. Red dates - **Price data**: The futures price of the CJ2601 contract closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day. The spot price of Kashgar common dates was 7 yuan/kg, an increase of 0 yuan or 4.00% [13]. - **Inventory data**: The latest 36 sample enterprises' physical inventory of red dates was 13,910 tons, an increase of 3,062 tons from the previous week and 270 tons lower than the same period [14]. Live pigs - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (1h2603) closed at 11,385 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan or 2.71% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 11,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.71% [16]. - **Supply and demand data**: In November, the breeding side actively slaughtered, with intense competition. The large-scale enterprises had high slaughter pressure, and the overall plan completion was not ideal. In December, the planned slaughter increased by 3.2%. The supply pressure was expected to be gradually released around the Winter Solstice in December. In the medium term, the number of new-born piglets in November decreased by 76,200 to 5.7031 million. In the long term, the number of fertile sows in October decreased to 39.9 million, and it was expected to complete the reduction target of 39.5 million by the end of the year. On the demand side, with the cooling weather, the pickling and enema activities in the southwest and other regions continued to increase, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate, pig - grain ratio, and fresh sales rate stopped falling and rebounded, gradually entering a period of high supply and demand [17].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量及表需环比环比下降，库存正常去化。杭州地区库存绝对水平虽仍较高，但已 | | | 谨慎看空 | 降幅已正常。螺纹自身基本面相对平衡。铁水产量环比再降，12 月钢厂检修较多，对 | | ★ | | 建筑钢材影响较大。钢材整体缺少强驱动，或维持区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量及表需均小幅下降，库存变化不大，维持近年来同期最高水平，去库不畅。现 | | ★ | | 货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动，热卷表现或继续弱于螺纹。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续有继续减量预期，关注其降幅。钢厂增库，港口增库。 | | ★ | 空单减持 | 外矿发到货双降，阶段性支撑矿价。减产主导下，矿价承压。 | | 焦炭 | | 原料煤价格下跌后焦企利润明显改善，生产积极性增加，整体库存压力尚可，后续提降 | | ★★ | 看空 | 预期进一步增强。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，12 月钢厂检修较多。自身供需结 | | | | 构偏宽松，预计短期跟随焦煤弱势运行。 | | | | 国内煤 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | 12 | 淡季供给过剩主导市场走势，油价上方承压。地缘：俄乌地缘仍有扰动， 月 8 日泽连斯基与英国、德国、法国首脑进行会晤；核心驱动：淡季供 | | 原油 | | | | | 谨慎看空 | 给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原 | | ★ | | 油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关 | | | | 注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续 | | | | 持有。 | | | | 需求端韧性较强，液化气震荡调整。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向 | | LPG | | 下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70% | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 左右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | | | 策略：走势强于沥青和燃料油，锚定成本端油价，大趋势仍向下，反弹偏 | | | 空。 | | | L | | 基差持续偏弱，成本支撑走弱。国 ...