中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 美国贸易数据不尽如人意，一季度 GDP 继续被下调，但是 5 月耐用品订单数据 积极。地缘方面协调停火和重建，避险情绪消退，价格走低。但是中长期不确 | | | | 定性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【760-790】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 主要国家经济前景面临收缩风险，白银情绪或受到影响。目前，金银比价目前 回归正常区间，目前白银基本面变化不大，盘面关注 8700 附近表现，考虑到白 | | | | 银的品种特性弹性较大，操作上做好仓位控制。【8600-8900】 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 特朗普威胁提前任命新美联储主席，降息预期走高，美元指数走弱，铜冲击 8 万关 口，建议前期铜多单继续持有。沪铜关注区间【79000，81000】 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 宏观和板块情绪积极，海内外锌库存去化，锌延续反弹，震荡走强，长期看， 锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22200，22800】 | | 铅 | 反弹 | 国内原生铅部分企业检修，再 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线下跌 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企 | | | | 业库存补库大幅恢复。6 月美农报告中性。由于美豆种植基本顺利叠加国内豆粕累 | | | | 库，整体基本面依然偏空。虽然美豆优良率同比偏低，但目前产量实际影响较小， | | | | 更多为炒作。本周国内大豆及豆粕最新库存环比增加，利空市场情绪，美豆种植天 | | | | 气顺利，缺乏利多驱动。在月底美豆面积重要数据公布前，预计将维持偏弱运行， | | | | 看多谨慎对待。主力【2900，2970】 | | 菜粕 | 短期下跌 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | 应展望压力减轻，加籽的强势叠加国内菜籽进口偏低，对菜粕价格构成较强支持作 | | | | 用。菜粕前日 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量继续上升，表观需求基本持平，库存变化不大。钢厂盈利水平较 | | | | 高，铁水产量仍然高企。由于绝对库存水平同比偏低，钢材出口需求仍然 | | | | 较好，供需总体矛盾不大。目前未出现强驱动，多空走势均缺乏持续性， | | | | 维持区间运行。【2970，3010】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅上升，表观需求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平 | | | | 衡，出口需求仍在，矛盾不大。当前市场缺少持续的方向性驱动，维持区 | | | | 间运行。【3100，3140】 | | | 区间参与 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | 铁矿石 | | 供给端发到货双增，港口去库，钢厂增库。整体供需结构环比继续改善， | | | | 矿价偏强运行。短期区间参与，中期逢高布空【705，730】 | | 焦炭 | 反弹 | 焦炭第四轮提降后，焦企亏损加深，市场出现提涨声音。独立焦企产量近 | | | | 期有所回落，库存环比 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量回升，表观需求继续下降，体现了近期较好的高炉利润与需求淡 | | | | 季特征。库存小幅下降，供需总体上矛盾不大，部分地区缺规格现象仍然 | | 螺纹钢 | | 存在。铁水产量仍然处于高位，出口需求仍然较好。外围地缘政治升级有 | | | | 一定的向上拉动作用，在现实基本面未出现明显改善的背景下，短期或偏 | | | | 强，中期仍或区间运行。【2950，2990】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅下降，表观需求环比回升，库存重新下降。供需总体相对平 | | | | 衡，矛盾不大。地缘政治风险抬高商品整体水平，短期表现或偏强，中期 | | | | 维持区间运行。【3070，3110】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 供给端发到货双增，港口去库，钢厂增库。整体供需结构环比继续改善， | | | | 矿价偏强运行。短期区间参与，中期逢高布空【690,715】 | | 焦炭 | 区间运行 | 近 ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 盘整 油价重回基本面定价，消费旺季 VS 供给增加，油价盘整。本周一周二油 价大幅下跌，地缘风险溢价被挤出，油价重回基本面定价。OPEC+从 4 月 份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消费旺季，油价 下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大。策略：轻 仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【490-520】 LPG 反弹偏空 地缘缓和，成本端大幅下降，液化气承压。特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已 同意全面停火，成本端油价大幅回落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷 基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好，港口库存连续下降。策略：成本 端利空，可轻仓试空。PG【4250-4350】 L 空头盘整 装置大量重启，停车比例降至 13%，美伊冲突升级，盘面波动加剧。淡季 继续补库意愿不足，华北基差为 19（环比+71）。本周检修力度增加，预 计产量继续下降。需求淡季，下游补库力度放缓，关注后续库存去化力度。 策略：反弹偏空。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头盘整 停车比例上升，下游刚需采购，综合利润修复。华东基差为 116（环比-42）。 近期检修力度加剧，预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a strong oscillation, with short - term price decline due to reduced risk - aversion sentiment, but long - term strategic allocation is recommended as there are many uncertainties [1]. - Silver is in a range - bound oscillation, affected by the gold price, and attention should be paid to the support at 8700 [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold long positions. In the long - term, there is confidence in the upward trend as global copper mines are in short supply [1]. - Zinc is in a rebound. It is advisable to wait and see for now, and in the long - term, take short - selling opportunities on rallies [1]. - Lead is in a short - term rebound due to enterprise maintenance and cost support [1]. - Tin is in a short - term rebound as mine production resumption is slow and consumption is in the off - season [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure as imports are high and the terminal is entering the off - season [1]. - Nickel is slightly stable at a low level, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [1]. - Industrial silicon's rebound is under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rallies as the fundamental surplus remains [1]. - Lithium carbonate's rebound is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply is in surplus [1]. Summary According to Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Condition**: Gold prices plummeted and then stopped falling due to short - term reversals in geopolitical situations and approaching tariff deadlines. Silver lacks new driving forces [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: There are only two weeks left until Trump's tariff deadline. The US has only reached a trade agreement with the UK, and many other countries have not achieved substantial progress in trade negotiations with the US. Trump criticized the Fed chairman, and the Middle East situation is under control. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged as the world reduces its reliance on the US dollar and fiscal and monetary policies are both loose [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold is in an adjustment phase. Pay attention to the support around 760 and consider long - term investment. Silver is in a range - bound oscillation, and pay attention to the support at 8550 [4]. Copper - **Market Condition**: Shanghai copper oscillated at a high level overnight, and its center of gravity moved up. The prices of domestic and foreign copper futures and spot all increased slightly, with an increase in trading volume and changes in inventory [6]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the copper concentrate processing TC has dropped. The domestic electrolytic copper production has increased, and it is expected to decline slightly in June. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and the LME spot premium has decreased. The terminal green copper demand is strong, offsetting the weakness in traditional demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold the previous long positions of copper. In the long - term, there is confidence in the upward trend of copper. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of Shanghai copper [78000, 79500] and London copper [9650, 9800] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Condition**: Zinc held above the integer - level mark, and the prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures and spot all increased slightly. Trading volume decreased, and inventory decreased [8]. - **Underlying Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. The domestic zinc ore processing fee has been raised. The domestic refined zinc production decreased in May and is expected to increase in June. Overseas and domestic zinc inventories are de - stocking against the season, and the downstream galvanizing enterprise's operating rate is affected by weak steel demand [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for now due to positive macro and sector sentiment and inventory de - stocking. In the long - term, short on rallies as supply increases and demand is weak. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22500] and London zinc [2650, 2750] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Condition**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina prices rebounded slightly [10]. - **Underlying Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - sentiment has recovered, but the terminal is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports remain high, the domestic operating capacity has increased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has slightly increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range is [20000 - 20600]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Condition**: Nickel prices were slightly stable, and stainless steel prices rebounded from a low level [12]. - **Underlying Logic**: The overseas macro - environment has improved. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore has decreased. The domestic refined nickel production has slightly decreased, but the inventory is sufficient, and the supply pressure is significant. The stainless steel terminal is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating, with an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range of nickel is [117000 - 121000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Condition**: The main contract LC2509 slightly increased its positions and was strong throughout the day [14]. - **Underlying Logic**: Market rumors led to short - covering. Fundamentally, the supply is in surplus, and the supply - demand contradiction is intensifying. Production has increased, and the terminal is in the off - season, with expected inventory accumulation. Although the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, the total inventory has reached a new high [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies in the range of [60500 - 61600] [15].

阿根廷农林渔业国秘处发布的月报显示，阿根廷 2024/25 年度大豆种植面积预估为 1780 万公顷，较 上月预估上调 0.6%，较上一年度的 1660 万公顷增加 7.2%。阿根廷 2024/25 年度大豆产量预估为 4990 万吨，较上月预估增加 1.8%，较上年度的 4820 万吨增加 3.5%。 Mysteel：截至 2025 年 06 月 20 日，全国港口大豆库存 783.3 万吨，环比上周增加 40.60 万吨；同 比去年增加 91.03 万吨。125 家油厂大豆库存为大豆库存 637.99 万吨，较上周增加 38.39 万吨，增幅 6.40%， 同比去年增加 91.56 万吨，增幅 16.76%；豆粕库存 50.89 万吨，较上周增加 9.89 万吨，增幅 24.12%， 同比去年减少 45.88 万吨，减幅 47.41%。 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线调整 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 伊以冲突缓和，油价挤出地缘溢价。上周末美国下场对伊朗核设施进行轰 | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 炸，伊朗扬言封锁霍尔木兹海峡，当地时间 23 日，特朗普宣布，以色列 | | | | 和伊朗已同意全面停火，油价大幅回落。当前油价重回供需基本面定价， | | | | 走势震荡偏弱。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【500-530】 | | | | 地缘缓和，成本端大幅下降，液化气承压。特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 同意全面停火，成本端油价大幅回落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷 | | | | 基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好，港口库存连续下降。策略：成本 | | | | 端利空，可轻仓试空。PG【4150-4250】 | | L | | 地缘降温，社库大幅去化，淡季继续补库意愿不足，华北基差为 90（环比 | | | 空头延续 | +144）。本周检修力度增加，预计产量继续下降。需求淡季，下游补库力 | | | | 度放缓，关注后续库存去化力度。策略：反弹偏空。L【72 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量回升，表观需求继续下降，体现了近期较好的高炉利润与需求淡 | | | | 季特征。库存小幅下降，供需总体上矛盾不大，部分地区缺规格现象仍然 | | | | 存在。铁水产量仍然处于高位，出口需求仍然较好。外围地缘政治升级有 | | | | 一定的向上拉动作用，在现实基本面未出现明显改善的背景下，短期或偏 | | | | 强，中期仍或区间运行。【2950，2990】 | | | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅下降，表观需求环比回升，库存重新下降。供需总体相对平 | | 热卷 | | 衡，矛盾不大。地缘政治风险抬高商品整体水平，短期表现或偏强，中期 | | | | 维持区间运行。【3070，3110】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 供给端发到货双增，港口去库，钢厂增库。整体供需结构环比继续改善， | | | | 矿价偏强运行。短期区间参与，中期逢高布空【690，715】 | | 焦炭 | | 近期焦化利润 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线整理 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企 | | | | 业库存补库大幅恢复。6 月美农报告中性。由于美豆种植基本顺利叠加国内豆粕累 | | | | 库，整体基本面依然偏空。虽然美豆优良率同比偏低，但目前产量实际影响较小， | | | | 更多为炒作。本周国内大豆及豆粕最新库存环比增加，利空市场情绪，美豆种植天 | | | | 气顺利，缺乏利多驱动。在月底美豆面积重要数据公布前，预计将维持震荡整理行 | | | | 情为主，看多追多操作谨慎对待。主力【3000，3060】 | | 菜粕 | 短线整理 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | 应展望压力减轻，加籽的强势叠加国内菜籽进口偏低，对菜粕价格构成较强支持 ...