1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★ [1] - Silver: ★★ [1] - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★ [1] - Lead: ★ [1] - Tin: ★ [1] - Aluminum: ★ [1] - Nickel: ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Long - term gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring, presenting a long - term bullish trend. Short - term gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [1][3][4]. - Copper is expected to strengthen due to lower - than - expected US inflation. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a long - term bullish outlook. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] dollars/ton [1][8]. - Zinc shows a short - term upward trend with the center of gravity rising as Shanghai zinc follows the external market. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited when the price is high. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for London zinc is [2800, 2900] dollars/ton [1][11]. - Aluminum prices are expected to have short - term rebounds. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound, paying attention to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [1][15]. - Nickel prices are expected to have short - term rebounds. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range is [121000 - 123500] [1][19]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to the approaching peak demand season. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a price range of [81000 - 86000] [1][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - After the delay of Sino - US tariffs by 90 days and with the ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue and US data supporting significant interest rate cuts, gold and silver prices declined and then consolidated [2]. Basic Logic - US tariff revenue reached a new high, but the government budget deficit still expanded. Inflation data led to an increase in interest rate cut expectations, with the September interest rate cut expectation rising to 95% and the annual interest rate cut expectation rising to 2.48 times. The US government pressured for interest rate cuts. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Gold may find support around 770 in the short - term, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver's trading range is 9100 - 9300, and long positions can be entered after the price stops falling. Long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper gapped down overnight and faced resistance during the rebound [7]. Industrial Logic - Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and although the subsequent refined copper production may decrease marginally, the current refined copper production is at a high level. It is currently the off - season for consumption, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. LME copper inventory build - up has slowed, and domestic social copper inventory is tight [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the 90 - day extension of Sino - US tariffs, lower - than - expected US inflation, and an increased probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed, it is recommended to hold long positions. The long - term outlook for copper is bullish. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc Market Review - London zinc stopped falling and rebounded, and Shanghai zinc followed the upward trend [10]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. The demand side is affected by factors such as Vietnam's tariff increase on galvanized steel and the domestic off - season, leading to a decline in the expected start - up rate of galvanized enterprises. Domestic zinc inventory is building up, while overseas London zinc warehouse receipts are being depleted, posing a risk of a soft squeeze [10]. Strategy Recommendation - With the 90 - day extension of Sino - US tariffs, lower - than - expected US inflation, and an increased probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed, Shanghai zinc will follow the external market in the short - term, with the center of gravity rising. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited when the price is high. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for London zinc is [2800, 2900] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices had a short - term rebound, and alumina had a rebound and then a decline [13]. Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - environment is positive. The cost has decreased, inventory is rising, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite supply is stable, but there are some disturbances in domestic bauxite. Alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory is accumulating. In the short - term, the supply - demand of alumina is expected to remain loose [14]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the short - term rebound of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices had a short - term rebound, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [17]. Industrial Logic - Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production has increased. Stainless steel production cuts have led to some inventory reduction, but overall, there is still an oversupply pressure during the off - season [18]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [121000 - 123500] [19]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opened high and then fell, dropping more than 6000 points from the high [21]. Industrial Logic - Although domestic weekly production has reached a new high, the total inventory has only increased by less than 700 tons, indicating that terminal demand is about to enter the peak season. There is speculation about supply disruptions, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. From a capital perspective, the 09 contract has a high open interest but a low warehouse receipt volume [22]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the continued speculation about supply disruptions, it is recommended to hold long positions in the range of [81000 - 86000] [23].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 气候中性预期，美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，8 月累库速度 | | 豆粕 | 警惕数据调整 | 较 7 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关键成本支撑。在基本面偏弱及 | | | | 中美贸易关税成本支撑的多空因素交织作用下，大区间行情对待。昨日受中国公布 | | ★ | 风险 | 对加籽反倾销调查结果提振，跟随菜粕价格上涨。关注本周三凌晨 8 月 USDA 报告 | | | | 美豆单产情况，市场预计环比趋向调增风险，追多谨慎对待。主力【3030，3090】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽新年单产存在调减风险。国内油厂菜籽环比去库菜 | | | | 粕环比累库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。8 月至 10 月菜籽进口同比 | | 菜粕 | | 大幅偏低，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧作加籽的强势。对菜粕价格构成较 | | ★★ | 短线偏多 | 强支持。现货市场方面，豆粕对菜粕消费替代较大。昨日中国发布对加籽反倾销调 | | | | 查结果，叠加报告公 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 供需方面，铁水产量环比微降，绝对水平仍高，螺纹产量及表观需求环比上升，库存有 | | | 谨慎看多 | 所增加。建筑钢材成交低位运行，整体仍体现淡季特征。唐山独立轧钢企业阅兵期间停 | | ★ | | 产，供应端政策继续扰动市场，短期或有走强。【3220，3280】 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需环比下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。热卷出口利润回落明显，后期 | | | 谨慎看多 | 出口或受一定影响。宏观强预期对下方形成支撑，唐山阅兵期间限产消息或刺激短期有 | | ★ | | 所走强。【3430，3490】 | | 铁矿石 | 短多参与 | 基本面看，铁水产量再降。港口、钢厂库存同增，钢厂低库存补库带动阶段性价格坚挺。 | | ★ | | 基本面主导下，矿价偏强。【780,815】 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货已有五轮提涨，焦企利润边际有所改善，绝对水平仍然有限，生产积极性一般。 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 焦炭供需总体相对平衡，产量及库存偏稳运行，变化不大。近期煤炭限产减产等消息再 ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 ★ 谨慎看空 供给压力不断上升，油价中枢继续下移，关注周五美俄会谈。油价进入旺 季尾声，随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行 压力较大，但下降空间在逐渐缩小。供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页 岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点；地缘端重点关注本周五美俄会谈。策略：买入看 跌期权。SC【490-505】 LPG ★ 谨慎看多 成本端企稳叠加高基差，持仓升至近期高位，反弹动力上升。成本端油价 有所企稳；基差处于高位，估值中性偏低；下游化工需求尚可，PDH 开工 率 70%左右；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅上升，港口库存上升。 策略：轻仓试多。PG【3750-3850】 L ★ 空头反弹 成本止跌，需求边际好转，现货价格连续上涨。近期多数装置陆续重启， 国内外价差扩大，转口意愿提升，供给压力边际增加，社会库存连续 6 周 累库。但农膜旺季即将开始，开工率连续 3 周上行，关注补库节奏。绝对 价格低估值，远月合约具有抗跌性。策略：旺季临近，逢低试多。L 【7200-7400】 PP ★ 空头反弹 丙烯现货涨价，成本支撑好转，下游成交乏力，现货小幅下跌。上游 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting a focus on long - position opportunities, with a mid - to - long - term strategic allocation recommendation [1] - Silver: ★★, indicating a long - position strategy after a decline, with a long - term upward trend [1] - Copper: ★★, recommending trial long positions on dips, with a long - term optimistic outlook [1] - Zinc: ★, showing a bearish trend, suggesting short - position opportunities at high prices [1] - Lead: ★, with a bearish trend and the price under pressure [1] - Tin: ★, having a short - term rebound trend [1] - Aluminum: ★, with the price under pressure [1] - Nickel: ★★, suggesting short - position opportunities on rebounds [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★, with a cautious long - position recommendation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, with a long - position recommendation [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, with a long - position recommendation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple factors affecting various non - ferrous and new - energy metals, including policies, inflation expectations, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. It provides investment strategies for different metals based on these factors, such as long - position or short - position operations at appropriate times [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Trump cooled down the meeting, and there was news that the Sino - US tariff might be postponed for 90 days. Trump stated that gold would not be taxed. Also, the inflation expectation rose this week, leading to an obvious adjustment in gold prices [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump's new policy exempts gold from tariffs, causing a short - term decline in physical demand. The market is trading inflation expectations, with a high probability of a September rate cut and an expected 1 - 2 rate cuts within the year. Trump cooled down the US - Russia summit. In the long run, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770 in the short term, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver follows gold's decline, and long positions can be taken after it stops falling. The trading range is 9100 - 9300 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The overnight Shanghai copper futures gapped down and rebounded under pressure [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and the subsequent refined copper production may decrease marginally. It is currently the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up during the peak seasons. LME copper inventory accumulation has slowed down, and domestic social copper inventory is tight, stimulating refined copper consumption. The annual copper supply - demand is in a tight balance [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The US inflation data is about to be released. The US dollar's rebound puts pressure on copper prices. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long term, copper is still bullish. The Shanghai copper price is expected to be in the range of [78000, 80000], and the London copper price in the range of [9600, 9900] dollars per ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: London zinc rose and then fell, and Shanghai zinc rebounded under pressure [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. The demand side is affected by tariffs and the off - season, leading to inventory accumulation in the domestic market [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The US inflation data is about to be released. The US dollar's rebound puts pressure on zinc prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now. In the long term, short positions can be established at high prices. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to be in the range of [22200, 22800], and the London zinc price in the range of [2750, 2850] dollars per ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina rebounded and then fell [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, and inventory is rising while demand is weak. For alumina, the supply from Guinea is stable, and the supply is expected to be abundant in the short term [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded in the short term, and stainless steel also showed a rebound trend [17]. - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and the production of refined nickel is increasing. Stainless steel production cuts are weakening, and there is still an oversupply pressure during the off - season [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 increased in position and reached the daily limit [21]. - **Industrial Logic**: Terminal demand is about to enter the peak season, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The market is speculating on production suspension news, and funds are sensitive to positive information [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The speculation on supply continues, and long positions can be held in the range of [85000 - 89000] [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (★★), Cotton (★), Red dates (★), Live pigs (★★) [1] - **Large - range market**: Soybean meal (★), Rapeseed meal (★) [1] Core Views - **Soybean meal**: In the context of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it should be treated as a large - range market. Although there was inventory reduction this week, there is a risk of a month - on - month increase in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious when going long [1][5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: With the recovery of global rapeseed production year - on - year but the risk of a yield reduction in Canadian rapeseed, and considering factors such as import volume, tariffs, and consumption substitution, it should be treated as a large - range market. Pay attention to planting weather, data adjustments in the US agricultural report, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian progress [1][7]. - **Palm oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable to the consumption expectations of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The trend is mainly to go long on dips, but beware of the risk of a near - month squeeze [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Before the new cotton is listed, the supply is tight, and there is a certain support at the bottom. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" and the extension of Sino - US tariffs, there is a high probability of an improvement in downstream demand. Consider the opportunity to go long on dips [1][14]. - **Red dates**: There are still great differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and there is speculation risk. In the short term, the speculation period around the opening price is relatively long, and the recent inventory reduction speed has accelerated, which is still favorable for the long - term trend. It is recommended to go long on dips [1][17]. - **Live pigs**: The current situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". The short - term and medium - term supply pressure is high, but the capacity reduction of leading enterprises may help the far - month contracts rise. It is not recommended to blindly short - sell in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity to establish long positions in far - month contracts on dips [1][20]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 3072 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3020.57 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [3]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.20 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 655.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.00 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [4]. - **Trading situation**: On August 5, the far - month basis trading volume increased significantly, reaching a three - year high [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 2724 yuan/ton, down 1.77% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2707.32 yuan/ton, down 0.66% [6]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 8, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 13.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 million tons [7]. - **Demand situation**: Due to the oversupply of soybean meal, the substitution effect of soybean meal on rapeseed meal is enhanced, squeezing the market share of rapeseed meal [7]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 9218 yuan/ton, up 2.65% from the previous day. The national average price is 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [8]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 59.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.76 million tons, an increase of 3.02% [9]. - **Export situation**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared with the same period last month [9]. Cotton - **Market data**: The main contract CF2509's closing price is 13880 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.09% to 15179 yuan/ton [12]. - **International situation**: The US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased by 2% week - on - week to 53%, and the non - drought rate in the US cotton area increased to 82%. India's cotton planting area increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress was 24% [12]. - **Domestic situation**: Xinjiang's new cotton is mostly in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory has decreased to 200.67 million tons. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to start in 1 - 2 weeks [13][14]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The main contract CJ2601's closing price is 11685 yuan/ton, up 3.32% from the previous day [16]. - **Production area situation**: The new - season jujubes are in the fruit - setting stage. The estimated new - season output is between 56 - 62 million tons, but there are different views on the reduction range [16]. - **Inventory situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and the inventory reduction speed accelerated [16]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511's closing price is 14180 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous day. The domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply situation**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union's sample enterprises increased by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 increased, and the slaughter volume in the second half of the year is expected to increase [19]. - **Demand situation**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has weakened [19].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 供需方面，铁水产量环比微降，绝对水平仍高，螺纹产量及表观需求环比上升，库存有 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 所增加。建筑钢材成交低位运行，整体仍体现淡季特征。唐山独立轧钢企业阅兵期间停 产，供应端政策继续扰动市场，短期或有走强。【3190，3250】 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需环比下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。热卷出口利润回落明显，后期 | | | 谨慎看多 | 出口或受一定影响。宏观强预期对下方形成支撑，唐山阅兵期间限产消息或刺激短期有 | | ★ | | 所走强。【3400，3460】 | | 铁矿石 | | 基本面看，铁水产量再降。港口、钢厂库存同增，钢厂低库存补库带动阶段性价格坚挺。 | | ★ | 短多参与 | 基本面主导下，矿价偏强。【770，810】 | | | | 焦炭现货已有五轮提涨，焦企利润边际有所改善，绝对水平仍然有限，生产积极性一般。 | | 焦炭 ★ | 谨慎看多 | 焦炭供需总体相对平衡，产量及库存偏稳运行，变化不大。近期煤炭限产减产等消息再 | | | | ...

Report Title - "20250809 Cotton Weekly Report: As the Golden September and Silver October Approach, Focus on Short - Long Opportunities Before the New Cotton Goes on the Market" [1] Core View - With the approaching of the Golden September and Silver October, attention should be paid to short - long opportunities before the new cotton goes on the market. Compared with the June forecast, the data adjustment this time is bearish, with the increase in production exceeding that in consumption, leading to an expected increase in global ending inventory in the new year. However, there may be further room for adjustment in China's production, and the optimistic global consumption forecast may lead to a further increase in ending inventory [4][5] Cotton Supply and Demand Balance (July) Production - In the 2025/26 season, global production is expected to increase by 311,000 tons month - on - month to 2.578 million tons. China's production is expected to increase by 218,000 tons to 674,900 tons, the US by 131,000 tons to 304,800 tons, and Pakistan's production is expected to decrease by 44,000 tons to 108,900 tons [4] Consumption - Global consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 78,000 tons month - on - month to 2.5718 million tons. Pakistan's consumption is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 237,300 tons [5] Trade - Global imports and exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to decline slightly by 20,000 - 30,000 tons month - on - month. China's imports are expected to decrease by 152,000 tons to 126,300 tons, and Pakistan's imports are expected to increase by 131,000 tons to 128,400 tons [5] Ending Inventory - Global ending inventory in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 113,000 tons month - on - month to 1.6833 million tons. China's ending inventory is expected to increase by 11,000 tons to 807,000 tons, and the US's by 65,000 tons to 100,100 tons [5] Cotton and Yarn Spot and Futures Cotton Spot and Futures - Cotton prices increased during the week, and the basis was relatively strong [6] Yarn Spot and Futures - Yarn prices were weak during the week, and the terminal's price - holding ability was poor [11] Supply Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory - This week, the national industrial and commercial cotton inventory decreased by 150,400 tons to 2.8637 million tons, lower than the same period by 97,100 tons. The available days of pure - cotton yarn inventory increased by 0.06 days to 31.93 days, and the terminal grey fabric inventory increased by 0.42 days to 30.99 days. The finished product replenishment speed slowed down further [14] Imported Cotton and Yarn - In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the cumulative import was about 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 74.3%. In June, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 0.1% and a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons [16] Cotton Warehouse Receipts - As of August 8, the registered cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou decreased by 432 to 8,252, with 330 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 8,582, equivalent to 343,280 tons of cotton. As cotton prices stabilized after falling, the willingness of some cotton - using enterprises to take over warehouse receipts at low prices increased [18] Demand Factory Operation Rate and Profit - This week, the spinning mill operation rate decreased by 0.9% to 65.7%, and the weaving mill operation rate decreased by 0.1% to 37%. The spinning mill orders decreased by 0.49 days to 6.84 days. The on - the - spot profit of the mainstream yarn in the inland increased to - 1,595.8 yuan/ton, and the expected profit of enterprises in Xinjiang recovered to 400 yuan/ton [20] Market Transactions - This week, the total turnover in the Light Textile City decreased by 282,000 meters to 4.622 million meters, and the cotton cloth turnover decreased by 60,000 meters to 170,000 meters. In Keqiao, the accessory price decreased by 2.29 to 114.15, and the fabric price increased by 1.46 to 112.12 [23] Social Consumption - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the cumulative total was 2.45458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles of enterprises above the designated size in June reached 127.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [24] Export Situation - From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 170.74 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In July, the export was 26.77 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 2%. In June, China's clothing and textile exports to the US increased, while those to the EU and ASEAN showed different trends [27][33] Industry PMI - In June, the cotton textile industry PMI decreased by 1.95% to 47.71%, remaining below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New order PMI increased by 3.15% to 44.68%, and the operation rate PMI increased by 1.04% to 52.13%. The yarn inventory PMI increased by 12.74% to 63.83%, and the cotton inventory increased by 3.29% to 48.94% [35] CFTC Position Data - The net short positions of non - commercial and fund investors increased slightly [36]

Report Investment Ratings - **Beans and Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Jujube**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - **Beans and Meal**: Amid the interplay of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it shows a large - range oscillation. This week, there was inventory reduction, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased month - on - month, which is bullish. However, there is a risk of an upward adjustment in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious about chasing long positions. Focus on the next USDA monthly supply - demand report [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Under the influence of multiple long and short factors, it presents a large - range market. Although the global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, there is a risk of a yield reduction in Canada. The import of rapeseed from August to October is significantly lower year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. But the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit exerts downward pressure. Pay attention to the planting weather, yield estimates, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian developments [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption outlook of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. However, there may be inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July, which could suppress short - term prices. Consider the support of biodiesel policies and look for opportunities to go long on dips. Also, pay attention to domestic palm oil purchases in the past three months and beware of the risk of short - term squeeze [1][10]. - **Cotton**: The moisture condition in the main cotton - producing areas of the US continues to deteriorate slightly, and the export improvement expectation is limited. The ICE market is expected to move in a narrow range. In China, the guaranteed output of new cotton has increased, and the high - temperature risk has been lifted, but the risk of rainy days in the future needs attention. The commercial inventory is still being depleted rapidly, and there is no quota issuance at the import end, providing short - term support. The downstream may gradually enter the stocking period, and there is an expected marginal improvement in the spinning mill's operating rate and future orders. Before the new cotton is launched, the downside space is limited, and it is advisable to establish long positions on dips [1][14]. - **Jujube**: There are still significant differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and the possibility of an over - expected reduction is still in doubt, with speculation risks remaining. High - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height before the final output is determined. It is recommended to be cautious and try long positions [1][17]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous second - fattening sales and the acceleration of short - term sales rhythm have pushed down the price of live pigs. However, the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs still drives some second - fattening speculation, so the near - term contracts are weak but have certain support. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains at a high level, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises may help the far - term contracts rise. The overall situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". Continue to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy and the opportunity to establish long positions on dips for far - term contracts [1][20]. Summary by Directory Beans and Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.237 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 152,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, and the bean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main bean meal contract closed at 3,045 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,015.43 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 27,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons [7]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract closed at 2,773 yuan/ton, up 1.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,725.26 yuan/ton, up 1.07% [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,300 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 3,400 tons [9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,108 yuan/ton, up 1.26% [8]. Cotton - **Inventory Data**: The cotton commercial inventory dropped to 2.0067 million tons, 210,000 tons lower than the same period. The inventory depletion has not significantly slowed down [13]. - **Price Data**: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2509 decreased by 0.22% to 13,640 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.10% to 15,193 yuan/ton [11][12]. Jujube - **Inventory Data**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and 4,379 tons higher than the same period [16]. - **Price Data**: The main jujube contract CJ2601 increased by 3.59% to 11,540 yuan/ton [16]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Output Data**: In August, the planned output of Steel Union sample enterprises was 13.2257 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 5.26%. The national sample enterprises' live - pig inventory was 37.6332 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%, and the output was 10.9168 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.01% [18][19]. - **Price Data**: The main live - pig contract Lh2511 increased by 0.96% to 14,180 yuan/ton, and the domestic live - pig spot price remained stable at 14,340 yuan/ton [18][19].

沪铜周报 需求淡季库存回流，铜反弹乏力 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-08-08 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 周度总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】宏观进入窗口期，美元走弱，特朗普铜关税TACO叠加需求淡季，非美铜 库存累增，铜反弹乏力，中美贸易协定隐含变数，警惕中美关系带来冲击 【策略展望】 短期铜精矿干扰和美元疲软帮助铜止跌反弹，但需求淡季叠加海内外库存累库限制了 铜反弹空间，铜或需要再次下蹲蓄力。铜宏观属性强过工业属性，价格韧性强，建议 纵使看空也不要轻易做空，建议等待回调轻仓试多。如果中美谈判出现波折，铜可能 测试77500附近支撑，反之宏观情绪好转，铜价将获得提振。中长期看，中美博弈进 入新阶段，全球铜矿紧张难以缓解，铜作为重要战略资源，对铜长期看涨。沪铜关注 区间【77500，80500】，伦铜关注区间【9550，9850】美元/吨 【操作策略】 策略：回调试多 【风险提示】 政策不及预期，需求不足，中美关系 4 工作计划安排 WOR ...