中辉有色观点 【基本逻辑】：①鲍威尔重申不急于降息。美联储主席鲍威尔向国会提交半年度货 币政策报告证词。鲍威尔表示，政策调整对经济的影响仍存在不确定性，但目前处于有 利位置，可以等待再考虑利率调整。他指出，最终的关税水平将决定其影响，关税可能 推高物价并对经济产生压力，对通胀的影响可能是短暂的，也可能会持续更长时间。② 关税谈判不顺利。面对 7 月 9 日美国对欧盟出口商品征收 50%关税的威胁，美国要求欧 盟做出被视为"不平衡、单方面"的让步，欧盟正考虑是否启动反制措施。③市场预期 中东局势可控。特朗普致电以色列总理内塔尼亚胡，要求其完全避免对伊朗采取任何攻 击行动。内塔尼亚胡告诉特朗普，他无法取消这次袭击，最终，（以色列）决定大幅缩 减攻击规模并取消对大量目标的攻击。伊朗总统表示，如果以色列不违反停火协议，伊 朗就不会违反。伊方已准备在谈判桌上进行对话。④逻辑主线。关税地缘变数较大，长 期全球降低美元依赖及财政货币双宽松趋势不变，黄金长牛逻辑不变。 资料来源：Wind，中辉期货 【行情回顾】：鲍威尔拒绝降息、特朗普熄火中东，黄金有下挫。 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 伊以冲突缓和，油价挤出地缘溢价。周末美国下场对伊朗核设施进行轰炸， | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 伊朗扬言封锁霍尔木兹海峡，当地时间 23 日，特朗普宣布，以色列和伊 | | | | 朗已同意全面停火，油价大幅回落。当前油价重回供需基本面定价，走势 | | | | 震荡偏弱。策略：短期建议观望，等待地缘风险进一步释放。SC【510-540】 | | | | 地缘缓和，成本端大幅下降，液化气承压。特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 同意全面停火，成本端油价大幅回落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷 | | | | 基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好，港口库存连续下降。策略：成本 | | | | 端利空，可轻仓试空。PG【4200-4350】 | | | | 地缘降温，社库大幅去化，停车比例升至 19%，华北基差为-54（环比-29）。 | | L | 2024 | 年自伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，进口存缩量 | | | 空头盘整 | 预期。本周检修力度增 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量回升，表观需求继续下降，体现了近期较好的高炉利润与需求淡 | | | | 季特征。库存小幅下降，供需总体上矛盾不大，部分地区缺规格现象仍然 | | | | 存在。铁水产量仍然处于高位，出口需求仍然较好。外围地缘政治升级有 | | | | 一定的向上拉动作用，在现实基本面未出现明显改善的背景下，短期或偏 | | | | 强，中期仍或区间运行。【2975，3015】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅下降，表观需求环比回升，库存重新下降。供需总体相对平 | | | | 衡，矛盾不大。地缘政治风险抬高商品整体水平，短期表现或偏强，中期 | | | | 维持区间运行。【3100，3140】 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发到货双增，港口去库，钢厂增库。整体供需结构环比继续改善， | | | | 矿价偏强运行。短期区间参与，中期逢高布空【695,720】 | | 焦炭 | 区间运行 | 近 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短线回落整理 | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企 | | | | 业库存补库大幅恢复。6 月美农报告中性。由于美豆种植基本顺利叠加国内豆粕累 | | | | 库，整体基本面依然偏空。虽然美豆优良率同比偏低，但目前产量实际影响较小， | | | | 更多为炒作。前日豆粕回落，本周国内大豆及豆粕最新库存环比增加，利空市场情 | | | | 绪，美豆种植天气顺利，缺乏利多驱动。在月底美豆面积重要数据公布前，预计将 | | | | 维持震荡整理行情为主。关注 20 日均线附近技术支持情况。主力【3000，3065】 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | | 至 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | 应展望压力减轻，加籽的强势叠加国内菜籽进口偏低，对菜粕价格构成较强支持 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 180°转弯。伊朗有限报复，局势没有扩大，特朗普称两国将停火，市场预计中 | | 黄金 | 强势震荡 | 东问题可控，不过 7 月 9 日对等关税或重起。未来中期短期不确定性仍然较多， | | | | 长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【773-801】 | | | | 关注黄金价格波动对白银的影响。目前，金银比价目前回归正常区间，目前白 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 银基本面变化不大，盘面关注 8700 支撑，考虑到白银的品种特性弹性较大，操 | | | | 作上做好仓位控制。【8700-8900】 | | | | 伊朗和以色列已经在美方主导下实现全面停火，原油价格大跌，地缘风险缓和，市 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 场风险偏好恢复，LME 铜库存续创年内新低，引发安全供应担忧，短期铜站稳 7 万 | | | | 8 关口，建议逢低轻仓试多。沪铜关注区间【78000，79000】 | | | | 海外地缘风险缓和，市场风险偏好回升，海内外锌库存去化，短期宏微共振， | | 锌 | 反弹 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Glass shows a weak rebound due to the warming of commodity sentiment, but the medium - term demand contraction and industrial deflation persist, and the short - term fundamentals are still weak with no obvious driving force [1][4] - The overall logic of soda ash is a supply - demand surplus pattern, and a medium - to long - term bearish view is recommended, although it is sensitive to policy and cost changes [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - The weekly start - up rate of the float glass industry is 75.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate is 77.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points [3] - One production line was cold - repaired this week, with a capacity of 700 tons per day. The daily output is 15.54 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%; the weekly output is 109.35 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [3] Demand - In the off - season, the shipment in various regions is mainly for rigid demand, and the speculative purchasing demand is relatively weak [3] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 202,000 heavy boxes or 0.29% week - on - week to 69.887 million heavy boxes, reaching an 8.5 - month high, with a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days are 30.8 days, the same as the previous period [3] Cost and Profit - The costs of glass made from petroleum coke, coal, and natural gas are 1,138, 1,020, and 1,466 yuan per ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 20, - 6, and - 7 yuan per ton [3] - The production profits are - 108.5, 83.7, and - 195.1 yuan per ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 20, + 3, and - 12.3 yuan per ton [3] View and Strategy - The glass shows a weak repair market. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is no obvious driving force. Although the valuation is relatively low, considering the uncertainty of the off - season and limited positive driving forces, attention should be paid to the 1,045 pressure level [4] Soda Ash Supply - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week is 86.57%, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%. The domestic soda ash output is 754,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97% [5] Demand - The sales - to - production ratio this week is 94.65%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61%, but less than 100%. The downstream demand is average, mainly for on - demand procurement [5] - There is no new investment or cold - repair of production lines in photovoltaic glass, and the downstream orders are few. The performance of float glass is mediocre, with most processing plants having scattered orders [5] Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,400 tons or 2.40%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 812,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory is 914,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,100 tons [5] Cost and Profit - The ammonia - soda production cost is 1,259 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47 yuan per ton. The combined - soda production cost is 1,591 yuan per ton (calculated at a ratio of 75% - 80%, it is 1,193 - 1,272 yuan per ton), with no week - on - week change [5] - The profit of the ammonia - soda method is 25.2 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.5 yuan per ton; the profit of the combined - soda method is 99.5 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan per ton [5] View and Strategy - Soda ash shows a relatively poor performance. With the increase in supply and decrease in demand, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the market is worried about over - supply. A medium - to long - term bearish view is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 10 - day moving average pressure [6]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 特朗普周末卷入以伊大战，一改周五晚间的措辞，全球多方谴责，避险情绪或 | | 黄金 | 强势震荡 | 升温，上周欧洲央行连续降息、7 月 9 日对等关税或重起。未来中期短期不确 | | | | 定性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【773-801】 | | | | 关注黄金价格波动对白银的影响。近期白银走高主要是缘自资金情绪，金银比 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 价目前回归正常区间，目前白银基本面变化不大，盘面关注 8700 支撑，考虑到 | | | | 白银的品种特性-快涨快跌，操作上做好仓位控制。【8700-8900】 | | | | 传统消费淡季深入，短期铜多单止盈兑现离场，全球经济受中东战乱和中美贸易摩 | | 铜 | 承压 | 擦影响预期偏弱，产业客户积极逢高布局卖出套保，锁定合理利润。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【77800，78800】 | | | | 需求淡季，国内锌库存累库，锌震荡回落，测试前低支撑，长期看，锌供增需 | | 锌 | 承压 | 弱，把握逢高空 ...

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 2985 | 6 | 热卷01 | 3107 | d | | 螺纹05 | 2987 | 8 | 热卷05 | 3100 | 7 | | 螺纹10 | 2992 | 6 | 热卷10 | 3116 | 13 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2920 | 10 | 张家港废钢 | 2130 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3160 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3110 | 10 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3090 | 0 | 热卷:上海 | 3200 | 10 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3130 | 10 | 热卷： 杭州 | 3220 | 10 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3160 | 0 | 热卷:广州 | 3180 | 10 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3190 | 0 | 热卷:成都 | 3400 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 螺纹01:上 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bullish [1] - L: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PP: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PVC: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Short - term bullish [1] - Glass: Weak bullish rebound [2] - Soda ash: Low - level consolidation [2] - Caustic soda: Bearish rebound [2] - Methanol: Bullish [2] - Urea: Bearish but with long - position opportunities [2] - Asphalt: Bullish [2] Core Views - The current core driver of the oil market has shifted from supply - demand to geopolitics. The Israel - Iran conflict dominates oil prices, and short - term oil prices are bullish. Other chemical products are also affected by factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand, and cost [1][5]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market conditions**: On June 20, WTI rose 0.46%, Brent fell 0.09%, and SC rose 2.47%. The current international oil prices are high - level volatile [4]. - **Basic logic**: The core driver is geopolitical, with the Israel - Iran conflict likely to intensify. Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz. Supply: Iran's oil facilities continue to operate. Demand: OPEC forecasts 2025 and 2026 demand growth. Inventory: US commercial crude inventory decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions. Consider option strategies. Long - term, due to factors like trade wars and new energy, oil prices are expected to range between $60 - 70 per barrel. Short - term, expect high - level volatility. SC to focus on [560 - 590] [5][6] LPG - **Market conditions**: On June 20, the PG main contract closed at 4557 yuan/ton, up 1.00%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China had different changes [7]. - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices, which in turn affect LPG. Cost - profit, supply, demand, and inventory all show certain trends. For example, PDH, MTBE, and alkylation开工率 increased, and port inventory decreased [8]. - **Strategy**: Double - buy option strategy. Long - term, the central price may decline. Short - term, due to geopolitics, be cautious with short positions. PG to focus on [4550 - 4750] [9] L - **Market conditions**: The L main contract showed certain price and position changes [10]. - **Basic logic**: Recent shutdown and maintenance of devices, with reduced supply expectations. Downstream demand has a slowdown in restocking. Geopolitical impact on cost weakens. Import may shrink due to the conflict. Maintenance intensity increases this week, and production is expected to decline [10]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish. Negative basis, upstream enterprises can consider selling hedging. L to focus on [7350 - 7550] [10] PP - **Market conditions**: The PP main contract price and position changed [13]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, but the terminal market has not improved substantially. Supply pressure is high in June - July. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and export margins turn negative [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish following the cost. PP to focus on [7150 - 7350] [13] PVC - **Market conditions**: The PVC main contract price and position changed [15]. - **Basic logic**: Macro - policy uncertainty and energy price fluctuations affect the market. Supply remains high, domestic demand is poor, and foreign trade has no growth space. Cost support is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish rebound following the cost. Short - term long, long - term short. V to focus on [4850 - 5050] [15] PX - **Market conditions**: On June 20, PX spot price in East China was flat, and the PX09 contract price decreased. The basis converged [17]. - **Basic logic**: PX profit improves, and domestic and foreign device loads are high. Supply and demand are expected to increase. Inventory is decreasing but still high. PXN spread is not low, and the basis is converging [18]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. PX to focus on [7020 - 7200] [18][19] PTA - **Market conditions**: On June 20, PTA spot price in East China increased, and the TA09 contract price decreased. The basis strengthened [20]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase due to device restarts and new capacity. Downstream polyester load is high, but terminal weaving load is declining. Inventory is decreasing, processing fees are high [21]. - **Strategy**: Go long at low prices. TA to focus on [4930 - 5080] [21] Ethylene Glycol - **Market conditions**: On June 20, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China increased, and the EG09 contract price decreased. The basis strengthened [22]. - **Basic logic**: Device load increases, but arrivals and imports are low. Demand is expected to weaken, downstream polyester load is high, but terminal weaving load is declining. Inventory is decreasing [23]. - **Strategy**: Look for low - long opportunities. EG to focus on [4480 - 4560] [24] Glass - **Market conditions**: The glass main contract price increased slightly, and the basis weakened [25]. - **Basic logic**: Commodity sentiment warms up, but glass mid - term demand decline has not been alleviated. In the short - term, upstream inventory accumulates, and the cost of coal - based production still has profit, so large - scale cold repair is difficult [26]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions. The 5 - day moving average provides weak support. FG to focus on [990 - 1020] [26] Soda Ash - **Market conditions**: The soda ash main contract price decreased slightly, and the basis fluctuated narrowly. Warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - **Basic logic**: Supply increases as device maintenance ends, and new capacity is expected. Demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass weakens. Inventory accumulates, and the cost center moves down [28]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, coal prices rebound, and the cost suppresses the decline speed. Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average. SA to focus on [1150 - 1180] [2] Caustic Soda - **Market conditions**: The caustic soda spot price decreased, and the main contract price rebounded weakly. The basis weakened [30]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from alumina decreases. Overall demand is weakening [30]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average. SH to focus on [2230 - 2280] [2] Methanol - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Upstream profit is good, and domestic device load is high. Iranian supply is expected to decline due to the conflict. Demand feedback is negative, and inventory is low [2]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is short - term bullish. Lightly go long, but also pay attention to high - short opportunities. Consider going long on the 01 contract. MA to focus on [2500 - 2600] [2] Urea - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is high, but agricultural demand is expected to pick up. The Israel - Iran conflict affects international supply, and international prices are short - term bullish [2]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - position opportunities at low prices. UR to focus on [1740 - 1780] [2] Asphalt - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Price is driven by oil prices. Supply increases, inventory accumulates, and demand shows a "north - strong, south - weak" pattern [2]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. BU to focus on [3750 - 3900] [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The short - term trends of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil are rebounds; cotton is under pressure during the rebound; jujube is at risk of a decline; and live pigs are in a wide - range oscillation [1]. - For soybean meal, the overall fundamentals remain bearish, and caution is needed when chasing long positions. For rapeseed meal, due to the strong price of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, there are opportunities to go long at low prices. For palm oil, attention should be paid to the risk fluctuations of crude oil in the future, and caution is needed when chasing long positions above 8700 yuan. For cotton, although there is support at the bottom, the upward momentum is weak. For jujube, be vigilant against the risk of the market rising first and then falling. For live pigs, consider short - selling on rebounds or reverse calendar spreads [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: Internationally, South American soybean production is basically determined, and the planting of US soybeans has started with normal rainfall in June. Domestically, ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are accumulating, and soybean meal supply is also entering a stock - building period. Feed enterprise inventories are gradually returning to the normal range, and spot trading has been average recently [3]. - **Data**: As of June 13, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 742.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.50 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 599.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.41 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.49 million tons [3]. - **Trading Advice**: The previous day's soybean meal rebounded, but approaching the previous high resistance, it is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions and to wait and see. Before the release of the US soybean acreage report, it is expected to run above the 20 - day moving average [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: Domestically, rapeseed meal inventories are much higher than in the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed has been harvested and listed in May. However, from June to August, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and the long - term import volume is expected to be low. The price of old - crop Canadian rapeseed is strong [7]. - **Data**: As of June 13, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 17.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.55 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 million tons; the unexecuted contracts were 5.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.45 million tons [7]. - **Trading Advice**: The short - term adjustment space of the rapeseed meal main contract is limited, and opportunities to go long at low prices can be considered. Pay attention to the subsequent Sino - Canadian trade situation for far - month contracts [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the inventory - building cycle of Southeast Asian palm oil has begun, but factors such as India's increased imports and the promotion of Malaysia's B20 policy have affected market sentiment. Domestically, the commercial inventory of palm oil is low, and imports have improved compared to the previous period [1]. - **Data**: As of the 24th week of 2025 (June 13), the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 40.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.70 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.20 million tons. The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending requirement of 5.61 billion gallons of biomass - based diesel (BBD) in 2026. In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 599,000 tons month - on - month, and China's palm oil imports were 180,000 tons [8]. - **Trading Advice**: The palm oil price rebounded, but considering the inventory - building cycle, caution is needed when chasing long positions above 8700 yuan, and attention should be paid to position control [1][9]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the US cotton planting progress is slow, and the drought situation has improved. Domestically, new cotton is growing well, the import of cotton in May decreased, and the destocking of domestic cotton is fast. However, downstream orders have weakened [11][12]. - **Data**: As of June 16, the US cotton planting progress was 85%. In May 2025, the domestic import of cotton resources was about 124,662 tons. The weekly order volume of textile enterprises decreased by 0.51 days to 9.91 days [11][12]. - **Trading Advice**: The Zhengzhou cotton's upward momentum is weak, but there is support at the bottom, and it is expected to operate in a short - term range [1][13]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: In the production areas, jujube trees are growing well, but high temperatures may affect flowering. The inventory is high, and the demand is in the off - season [15]. - **Data**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,680 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13 tons, higher than the same period by 4,531 tons [15]. - **Trading Advice**: Be vigilant against the risk of the jujube market rising first and then falling, and continuously pay attention to the actual situation in the production areas [1][15]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the planned slaughter in June has decreased slightly, but there may still be an increase in the slaughter plan. In the medium - term, there will be pressure on supply from October to November. In the long - term, the far - month production capacity has not shown an inflection point. The demand for slaughter has decreased, and the second - fattening replenishment has increased [17]. - **Data**: In May 2025, the number of newly - born piglets in steel - union designated enterprises increased by 64,600 to 543,390. The national sample enterprises' pig inventory in May was 37.0841 million, and the slaughter volume was 11.0882 million heads [16][17]. - **Trading Advice**: It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds or conduct reverse calendar spreads for the 09 and 11 contracts, focusing on the subsequent adjustment of production capacity [1][18].