钢材：缺乏持续驱动，重回区间运行 资料来源：iFinD，mysteel，中辉期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3016 | 1 | 热卷01 | 3136 | 8 | | 螺纹05 | 3022 | 2 | 热卷05 | 3134 | 5 | | 螺纹10 | 3003 | ୧ | 热卷10 | 3136 | 13 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2900 | -20 | 张家港废钢 | 2100 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3100 | -30 | 热卷:天津 | 3110 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3120 | -10 | 热卷:上海 | 3200 | O | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3160 | 1 0 | 热卷： 杭州 | 3210 | -20 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3160 | 0 | 热卷:广州 | 3180 | 0 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3160 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 按照 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企 业库存补库大幅恢复。6 月美农报告中性。美豆种植天气顺利，市场预计美豆种植 | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 面积环比增加，利空市场情绪，本周豆粕预计继续维持累库，基本面偏空。美豆种 | | | | 植面积环比小幅下降，产量减少影响幅度在 15 万吨以下，季度库存高于预期，整 | | | | 体数据影响有限。市场继续围绕基本面波动。昨日豆粕小幅收涨，反弹对待，3-5 | | | | 日内以 10 日均线以下震荡运行为主。主力【2950，2980】 | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | 应展望压力减轻，加籽的强势叠加国内菜籽进口偏低，对菜粕价格构成较强支持作 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线反弹 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企 | | | | 业库存补库大幅恢复。6 月美农报告中性。美豆种植天气顺利，市场预计美豆种植 | | | | 面积环比增加，利空市场情绪，本周豆粕预计继续维持累库，基本面偏空。美豆种 | | | | 植面积环比小幅下降，季度库存高于预期，隔夜美豆下跌。整体数据影响有限。市 | | | | 场继续围绕基本面波动。豆粕日内反弹有限，震荡整理为主。主力【2950，2980】 | | | 短线反弹 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | 应展望压力减轻，加籽的强势叠加国内菜籽进口偏低，对菜粕价格构成较强支持作 | | 菜粕 | | 用。周末加拿大菜籽种植面积报告出炉，2150 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Bearish consolidation. Geopolitical risk premium has been squeezed out, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is increasing production, and although it's the consumption peak season, increasing production will put downward pressure on prices. Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection [1][6]. - **LPG**: Weak. Saudi Arabia has lowered the CP contract price, and cost reduction due to falling oil prices, although downstream chemical demand is rising and inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Lightly short [1][9]. - **L**: Bearish consolidation. Device restarts are increasing, with production expected to rise this week. New device launches are planned in the medium - long term, and demand is in the off - season. Strategy: Hold short positions [1][11]. - **PP**: Bearish consolidation. Downstream orders are weak, cost support is weakening, and new capacity is planned in the third quarter. Strategy: Hold short positions [1][14]. - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation. Calcium carbide prices are rising, production is expected to decline, and new device launches are planned in the long term. Strategy: Short on rebounds, pay attention to pressure at integer levels [1][17]. - **PX**: Bullish. PX device loads are high, demand is expected to increase, and inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Look for opportunities to go long on dips [1][19]. - **PTA/PR**: Short - term bullish. Supply pressure is expected to increase, but inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Look for opportunities to go short on highs and widen the TA - PR spread [1][22]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish. Device loads are increasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory reduction is expected to narrow. Strategy: Do not chase long positions in the long - term, look for shorting opportunities [1][25]. - **Glass**: Under pressure and falling back. Market risk appetite has recovered, but medium - term demand shrinkage has not been alleviated, and cost has decreased. Strategy: Be cautious with long positions [3][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds. Supply is slightly reduced, but demand is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. Strategy: Short on rebounds [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: Back to weakness. Supply is high, demand is weak, and cost support is shifting down. Strategy: Pay attention to the 2310 pressure level [3]. - **Methanol**: Short on rebounds. Supply is increasing, demand feedback is negative, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities in the 09 contract and long opportunities in the 01 contract [3][36]. - **Urea**: Short on rebounds. Supply pressure remains high, although demand from exports is growing. Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities [3]. - **Asphalt**: Weak. Cost reduction due to falling oil prices, supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Strategy: Lightly short [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices were weakly volatile. WTI fell 0.63%, Brent fell 0.09%, and SC fell 1.21% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risk has eased, and OPEC+ may increase production in August. Supply from Guyana is increasing, while global demand growth has slightly decreased. US crude inventory decreased last week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, supply is in excess, and the price range is expected to be $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, it is weakly volatile. Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection. SC focus range: [490 - 510] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 30, the PG main contract closed at 4235 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed slightly [7]. - **Basic Logic**: Falling oil prices and Saudi Arabia's price cut have put pressure on LPG. PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil开工 rates are rising, but PDH device profit has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the upstream oil supply is in excess, and LPG is over - valued. Technically, it is weak. Strategy: Lightly short or buy put options. PG focus range: [4130 - 4250] [9]. L - **Market Review**: Price and position data of different contracts showed slight fluctuations [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weakening, supply is expected to increase due to device restarts, and demand is in the off - season. New devices are planned in July - August [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Risk: Monitor oil and coal prices and new capacity launches. Focus range: [7150 - 7350] [11][12]. PP - **Market Review**: Prices of different contracts and spot markets declined slightly [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weak, cost support is weakening, and new capacity is planned in the third quarter. Export profit is negative [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Risk: Monitor oil and coal prices and new capacity launches. Focus range: [7000 - 7150] [14][15]. PVC - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices are rising, production is expected to decline, and new devices are planned in the long term. The market is in the off - season, and exports are still supported [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, pay attention to integer - level pressure. Short - term participation. Risk: Macro - systematic risk. Focus range: [4800 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 7145 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 6752 yuan/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX device loads are high, demand is expected to increase due to PTA device restarts and new capacity launches, and inventory is decreasing. PXN and basis are high [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [6780 - 6930] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 5025 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 4778 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase due to device restarts and new capacity launches, while demand from the downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries is weakening. Inventory is decreasing [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on highs and widen the TA - PR spread. Focus range: [4790 - 4880] [22][23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 4340 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 4271 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Device loads are increasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory reduction is expected to narrow. Geopolitical risks still exist [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase long positions in the long - term, look for shorting opportunities. Focus range: [4230 - 4300] [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices have been lowered, and the basis has widened [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have decreased, and domestic policies have boosted market sentiment. Supply is at a low level, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals are weak [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [1010 - 1030], with weak support at the 5 - day moving average [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot prices have been lowered, and the main contract basis has widened [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply has slightly decreased, but demand is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. The price is sensitive to policies and costs [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [1185 - 1220], rebound within the range [31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices have been lowered, and the basis has weakened [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is high, demand from the main downstream (alumina) is weakening, and cost support is shifting down. There is an inventory reduction expectation during the maintenance season [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the 2310 pressure level [3]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 2638 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 2393 yuan/ton. The basis is high [35]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based methanol production is increasing, overseas device loads are low, and 7 - month arrivals may be lower than expected. Demand feedback is negative, but traditional demand is rising. Inventory is slightly accumulating [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities in the 09 contract and long opportunities in the 01 contract. Focus range: [2360 - 2420] [36][37]. Urea - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains high, although fertilizer exports are growing. Cost support still exists [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities. Focus range: [1700 - 1740] [3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, oil prices have fallen, supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short. Focus range: [3500 - 3600] [3].

钢材：缺乏持续驱动，重回区间运行 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 在短期反弹后，期货重新回落。目前钢厂盈利水平较高，铁水产量仍然高 | | | | 企，螺纹产量继续上升，表观需求基本持平，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好， | | | | 库存变化不大，供需矛盾比较有限。上行缺少驱动支撑，但在基差修复背 | | | | 景下行情重回区间运行。【2970，3010】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅上升，表观需求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平 | | | | 衡，出口需求仍在，矛盾有限。前期上行主要受情绪改善推动，基本面支 | | | | 撑比较有限，重回区间运行状态。【3090，3130】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 供给端发货冲量结束，后期外端港口有检修，发货难增。整体供需结构环 | | | | 比继续改善，矿价偏强运行。观点：短期区间参与【700,730】 | | 焦炭 | 震荡 | 独立焦企产量近期有所回落，但钢厂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. The long - term bullish logic remains unchanged due to the reshaping of the global order and the trend of fiscal and monetary easing, despite short - term price fluctuations caused by tariff negotiations and inflation changes [1][3]. - Silver will experience range - bound trading, lacking new driving forces [1][4]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold some long positions and take partial profits at high prices. In the long run, copper is expected to rise due to the tight global copper mine supply [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure to rebound. In the long term, with increasing supply and weakening demand, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be seized [1][8]. - Aluminum may face pressure as the off - season approaches, and short - selling opportunities on rallies are suggested [1][11]. - Nickel is likely to rebound and then decline. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended, considering the inventory pressure in the downstream [1][13]. - Industrial silicon is under pressure to rebound. Short - selling opportunities on rallies should be watched [1]. - Carbonate lithium is under pressure to rebound. Short - selling at high prices is advised as the fundamental situation remains one of oversupply [1][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Review**: Gold prices fluctuated due to Canada's compromise in tariff negotiations and Trump's criticism of the Fed [2]. - **Basic Logic**: German inflation decreased, and there were compromises in trade negotiations among countries. However, future variables are still large. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains intact [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 760. Consider long - term investment opportunities [4]. Silver - **Market Review**: Lacks new driving forces, showing range - bound trading. - **Basic Logic**: The logic has not changed significantly, and the ratio of gold to silver has returned to the normal range [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the support at 8550 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated around the 80,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and during the consumption off - season, the strong demand from the power and new - energy vehicle sectors offsets the weakness in traditional demand [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold some long positions and take partial profits at high prices. Be cautious of the risk of price drops at high levels. In the long term, copper is expected to rise. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is [78,500, 81,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9,700, 9,900] dollars/ton [1][6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc rebounded under pressure and oscillated [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Domestic inventories have slightly increased, and downstream demand is weak [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is under pressure to rebound and will trade in a narrow range. In the long term, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be grasped. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22,200, 22,800] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2,700, 2,850] dollars/ton [8][9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded under pressure, and alumina stabilized at a low level [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: The off - season in the terminal field is deepening, and inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods are showing signs of accumulation. The supply of alumina is relatively loose [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities on rallies for aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800] yuan/ton. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded weakly, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply pressure of nickel is obvious, and the stainless steel industry is facing over - supply due to the off - season and high inventory [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [13]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions by over 10,000 lots and opened high and closed low [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The market fundamentals remain in a state of oversupply, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. Although the number of warehouse receipts has decreased recently, the total inventory has reached a new high [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell at high prices in the range of [61,700 - 63,600] yuan/ton [15].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线暂止跌整 理 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企 | | | | 业库存补库大幅恢复。6 月美农报告中性。美豆种植天气顺利，市场预计美豆种植 | | | | 面积环比增加，利空市场情绪，本周豆粕预计继续维持累库，基本面偏空，市场等 | | | | 待美豆最终面积数据及季度库存数据。数据公布前，豆粕预计暂维持震荡行情。主 | | | | 力【2920，2975】 | | 菜粕 | 短线止跌反弹 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | 应展望压力减轻，加籽的强势叠加国内菜籽进口偏低，对菜粕价格构成较强支持作 | | | | 用。菜粕隔夜反弹，周末加拿大菜籽种植面积报告出炉，2150 万英亩，低于市场预 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Weak rebound [2] - Soda ash: Range - bound rebound [2] - Caustic soda: Range - bound rebound [2] - Methanol: Short - term bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously long [2] - Asphalt: Weak [2] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Oil prices return to fundamental pricing. With the consumption peak season and increasing supply, oil prices are in a consolidation phase. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, prices are weakly oscillating. [1][4] - LPG: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side declines, and LPG is under pressure. [1][5] - L: Transaction slows down, inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches eases, the cost side of crude oil weakens, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][9] - PP: Warehouse receipts decrease, the parking ratio rises, the cost side of crude oil and methanol falls, and it is advisable to go short on rebounds. [1][12] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices rise, social inventory increases, factory inventory decreases, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][15] - PX: Domestic and foreign PX device loads are operating at a high level, and there are expectations of both supply and demand increases. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices. [1][17] - PTA/PR: Recently, there are many maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short at high prices. [1][20] - Ethylene glycol: The device load increases, the arrival volume is expected to rise, demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to look for high - level short - selling opportunities. [1][23] - Glass: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the supply side slightly decreases, and the price has a weak rebound. [2][26] - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate and production decline, and there is a range - bound rebound, but high supply and inventory limit the upside. [2][29] - Caustic soda: There is an expectation of inventory reduction through maintenance, and there is a weak rebound at a low level. [2][32] - Methanol: The port has a high basis, but there is a negative feedback on MTO demand. It is short - term bullish. [2][33] - Urea: The supply pressure is still large, but there are expectations for agricultural demand peak season and exports. It is recommended to be cautiously long. [2] - Asphalt: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side of crude oil falls, and it is recommended to go short with a light position. [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude oil - **Market review**: On June 27, international oil prices were weakly oscillating. WTI rose 0.43%, Brent rose 0.16%, and SC fell 0.63%. [3] - **Basic logic**: After the US participated in the Israel - Iran conflict on June 23, geopolitical risks eased, and oil prices returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is rumored to increase production by 415,000 barrels per day in August. In terms of supply, Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May. In terms of demand, the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 is 1.29 million barrels per day, lower than 1.3 million barrels per day in May. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending June 20, US crude oil inventory decreased by 5.8 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 4.1 million barrels. [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, with the decline of geopolitical risks, oil prices return to supply - demand fundamental pricing, and it is recommended to go short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 510]. [4] LPG - **Market review**: On June 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,256 yuan/ton, down 0.21% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. [5] - **Basic logic**: Recently, geopolitical risks have declined, the cost side of oil prices has adjusted after squeezing out geopolitical premiums, and LPG has oscillated following the cost side. The PDH device profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit increased by 25 yuan/ton. The supply of LPG increased, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased. [6] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to go short with a light position or buy put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4,170 - 4,300]. [7] L - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of L contracts increased to varying degrees, and the main contract position increased by 2.0%. The spot prices of LL and HD decreased slightly, and the import and production profits changed. The social inventory of PE decreased significantly. [9] - **Basic logic**: With the easing of the situation in the Middle East, the international crude oil price has fallen, and the cost support for polyethylene has weakened. Some previously maintained devices have restarted, and the supply is expected to increase. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the price support is limited. [9] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [10] PP - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position decreased by 1.0%. The spot prices of PP were mostly stable, and the production and import profits changed. The enterprise and trade inventory of PP decreased. [12] - **Basic logic**: The decline in cost has dampened market sentiment, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The supply side has increased device maintenance, but in the off - season, downstream factories mostly purchase on demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated. [12] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [13] PVC - **Market review**: The PVC market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, with the spot supply - demand fundamentals being poor, and the market center remains weak. [15] - **Basic logic**: Calcium carbide prices have risen, social inventory has increased, and factory inventory has decreased. Some device maintenance is expected to end this week, and new maintenance is planned at the end of the month, with production expected to decline. It is the domestic off - season for demand, but exports still have support. There are plans to put into production three sets of devices in the future, and the supply side is under pressure. [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure level at integer points. V is expected to be in the range of [4,850 - 5,000]. [15] PX - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,145 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,752 (+30) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 206 (+8) yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. [16] - **Basic logic**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and foreign device loads are operating at a high level. The demand side is expected to improve with the resumption of PTA device production and new capacity addition. The inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years. [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6,760 - 6,950]. [18] PTA - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,025 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,778 (+8) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 172 (-2) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 247 (-8) yuan/ton. [19] - **Basic logic**: Recently, there are many PTA maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. Downstream polyester production reduction and terminal weaving operating load continue to decline. Inventory is continuously decreasing, processing fees are high, and the basis is strong. [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4,780 - 4,910]. [21] Ethylene glycol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,340 (-20) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,271 (-22) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was -43 (-9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 69 (+2) yuan/ton. [22] - **Basic logic**: Recently, the device load has increased, and although the arrival volume is currently low, it is expected to rise. The demand side is expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing but the expectation is narrowing. [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4,220 - 4,310]. [24] Glass - **Market review**: The spot market price quotes are stable, the price has a weak rebound, the basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [25] - **Basic logic**: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the market risk preference has recovered. The glass supply has increased and decreased simultaneously this week, and the overall production remains at a low - level fluctuation. The coal - based production still has profits, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The fuel price has increased, which has a certain boost to the glass price. [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1,010 - 1,030], with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support. [26] Soda ash - **Market review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been raised, the price has stabilized, the main contract basis has narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the number of forecasts has increased. [28] - **Basic logic**: Recently, some soda ash devices have reduced their loads, and the overall supply has slightly decreased. However, the industry's operating rate is still at a high level, and the pressure of oversupply in the later period remains. The terminal consumption of soda ash is mediocre, and the glass price is consolidating at a low level, providing general support to the upstream. The manufacturer's inventory continues to accumulate. [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1,185 - 1,220], with a range - bound rebound. [29] Caustic soda - **Market review**: The spot price of caustic soda remains stable, the price has a weak rebound at a low level, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [31] - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintain high - load production, and there is an expectation of new capacity addition from June to July. On the demand side, the downstream alumina production has slightly declined, and non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises has increased. [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the weak rebound driven by inventory reduction through maintenance. [32] Methanol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,638 (+19) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 (-24) yuan/ton. The East China basis was 245 (+43) yuan/ton, the port basis was 427 (+79) yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 month spread was -26 (-10) yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit increased to 56 (-4) US dollars/ton. [33] - **Basic logic**: The overall operating load of methanol has increased, and the arrival volume in July may be lower than expected. The demand side has shown negative feedback, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The port basis is high, and there are still geopolitical military conflict risks. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is short - term bullish. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 09 contract and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract. MA is expected to be in the range of [2,380 - 2,460]. [2] Urea - **Basic logic**: Recently, the urea maintenance intensity has increased, and the daily production has decreased briefly. However, in early July, the device is expected to resume production, and the supply pressure remains large. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand peak season is approaching. The fertilizer export growth rate is relatively fast, and there is still cost support. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to be cautiously long and pay attention to short - selling opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1,710 - 1,760]. [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, the cost side of crude oil has fallen significantly, the supply has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south". [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3,500 - 3,600]. [2]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 尽管降息预期增加，但是关税风险、地缘局势在上周减少，黄金价格大幅回调。， | | | | 中长期不确定性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【760-790】 | | | | 白银跟随黄金大幅调整。目前，金银比价目前回归正常区间，目前白银基本面 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 变化不大，盘面关注 8700 附近表现，考虑到白银的品种特性弹性较大，操作上 | | | | 做好仓位控制。【8600-8900】 | | | | 特朗普威胁提前任命新美联储主席，降息预期走高，美元指数走弱，铜围绕 8 万关 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 口震荡盘整，建议前期铜多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现，警惕铜高位回落风 | | | | 险，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，81000】 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪积极，秘鲁大型锌冶炼减产，锌延续反弹，震荡走强，关注上 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 方缺口压力位，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22200， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Crude oil is in consolidation. The oil price has returned to fundamental pricing, with a consumption peak season against an increase in supply, leading to price consolidation. [1][3] - LPG is expected to rebound with a bearish bias. Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decline in the cost side and putting pressure on liquefied petroleum gas. [1] - L is in a bearish rebound. The inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream has significantly decreased, and the cost side of coking coal has rebounded. [1] - PP is in a bearish rebound. The spot market has weak trading volume, and it will follow the cost rebound in the short term. [1] - PVC is in a bearish rebound. The cost support has improved due to a sharp rebound in coking coal at night, but the supply side is under pressure. [1] - PX is bullish. Both domestic and foreign PX plants are operating at a relatively high load, and there is an increase in both supply and demand. [1] - PTA is bullish. The restart of PTA maintenance devices and the launch of new production capacity are expected to increase supply - side pressure, but the cost side still has support. [1] - Ethylene glycol (MEG) is bearish. The device load has increased, but the demand side is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. [1] - Glass is in a weak rebound. Domestic macro - policies have boosted the market, and the supply side has slightly decreased, but the medium - term demand contraction has not been alleviated. [2] - Soda ash is in an interval rebound. The weekly operating rate and production have decreased, but the high supply and high inventory limit the upside space. [2] - Caustic soda is in an interval rebound. The upstream maintains high - load production, but the demand support is insufficient. [2] - Methanol is expected to rebound with a bearish bias. The comprehensive operating load is still relatively high, and the demand feedback is negative. [2] - Urea is short - term bullish. Although the supply side pressure is large, the agricultural demand peak season and exports are still worth looking forward to. [2] - Asphalt is bearish. Geopolitical tensions have eased, and it has fallen with the cost side in the short term. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: Overnight international oil prices continued to consolidate. WTI rose 0.49%, Brent rose 0.39%, and SC fell 0.65%. [3] - **基本逻辑**: The core driver was the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran announced by Trump on June 23, which led to a sharp drop in oil prices and the extrusion of geopolitical risk premiums. In terms of supply, Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May. In terms of demand, OPEC's latest monthly report showed that the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 was 1.29 million barrels per day, lower than 1.3 million barrels per day in May. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending June 20, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserves increased by 200,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels. [3] - **策略推荐**: In the medium - to - long term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and the expansion cycle of OPEC +, the oil supply will be in surplus, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, the oil price will be weak and volatile. The strategy is to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 520]. [3] LPG - **行情回顾**: On June 26, the PG main contract closed at 4,265 yuan/ton, up 0.66% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged from the previous period. [5] - **基本逻辑**: The core driver is the decline in geopolitical risks, and the cost side of oil prices has adjusted after the extrusion of geopolitical premiums. As of June 26, the PDH device profit was - 586 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton month - on - month. The supply of liquefied gas increased, and the demand side showed mixed trends in different sectors. The inventory in refineries and ports increased. [6] - **策略推荐**: In the medium - to - long term, the supply of upstream crude oil is greater than demand, and the central value is expected to continue to decline. The current ratio of LPG to crude oil is at a high level, and the valuation of LPG is high. In the short term, although there is a rebound on the daily line, the upward momentum is weak. The strategy is to short with a light position or buy put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4200 - 4300]. [7] L (Polyethylene) - **基本逻辑**: In the short term, as the situation in the Middle East eases, the international crude oil price has fallen, weakening the cost support for polyethylene. The supply is expected to increase in the short term due to the restart of some previously maintained devices, while the demand is in the off - season. The inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased, and the cost side of coking coal has rebounded. The North China basis has turned negative, and the willingness to replenish inventory in the off - season is insufficient. [9] - **策略推荐**: The strategy is to be long in the short term and short in the long term. L is expected to be in the range of [7250 - 7400]. [9] PP (Polypropylene) - **基本逻辑**: The cost decline has dampened market sentiment, and the trading atmosphere in the market is weak. The supply - side device maintenance has increased, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. The spot market has weak trading volume, and it will follow the cost rebound in the short term. However, the supply will be under pressure in the medium - to - long term due to the high pressure of device production capacity launch in the third quarter. [11] - **策略推荐**: Treat it as a short - term rebound, and short on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7200]. [11] PVC - **基本逻辑**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to fluctuations in the crude oil market and affected the PVC market. The cost support has improved due to a sharp rebound in coking coal at night, but the supply side is under pressure due to the planned launch of new production capacity in the future. The domestic demand is in the seasonal off - season, while the export still has support. [13] - **策略推荐**: Be bearish on rebounds and do not short in the short term. V is expected to be in the range of [4850 - 5000]. [13] PX - **行情回顾**: On June 20, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,050 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 7,076 yuan/ton (- 18). The 9 - 1 month spread was 232 yuan/ton (- 40), and the basis in East China was - 26 yuan/ton (+ 18). [14] - **基本逻辑**: The profit of PX has continued to improve, and both domestic and foreign plants are operating at a relatively high load. The PXN spread is 270.9 dollars/ton (+ 8.5). The demand side of PTA is expected to improve, and the inventory is decreasing. [15] - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices. PX is expected to be in the range of [6680 - 6790]. [15] PTA - **行情回顾**: On June 20, the PTA price in East China was 5,280 yuan/ton (+ 105), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,978 yuan/ton (- 10). The TA9 - 1 month spread was 180 yuan/ton (- 26), and the basis in East China was 302 yuan/ton (+ 115). [16] - **基本逻辑**: The short - term supply - side pressure is expected to increase due to the restart of maintenance devices and the launch of new production capacity. The demand side is expected to weaken as the downstream polyester starts to maintain a high level, but the terminal weaving start - up load continues to decline. The inventory is generally low, and the cost side has support. [17] - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices. TA is expected to be in the range of [4740 - 4820]. [17] MEG - **行情回顾**: On June 20, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,580 yuan/ton (+ 33), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,501 yuan/ton (- 38). The EG9 - 1 month spread was 14 yuan/ton (- 9), and the East China basis was 79 yuan/ton (+ 71). [18] - **基本逻辑**: The device load has increased, but the arrival volume and import volume are low compared to the same period. The demand side is expected to weaken as the downstream polyester starts to maintain a high level, but the terminal weaving start - up load continues to decline. The inventory is decreasing. [19] - **策略推荐**: Be bearish. EG is expected to be in the range of [4270 - 4320]. [20] Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market quotation is stable, the futures market is in a weak rebound, the basis has expanded, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [21] - **基本逻辑**: Domestically, macro - policies have boosted the market, and the supply side has slightly decreased. However, the medium - term demand contraction has not been alleviated. The current coal - based production still has profits, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price and is lower than the coal - based cost. [22] - **策略推荐**: The futures price is expected to have a weak rebound, with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support. FG is expected to be in the range of [1010 - 1030]. [22] Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been raised, the futures market has stabilized, the main - contract basis has narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the number of effective forecasts has decreased. [24] - **基本逻辑**: Recently, some soda ash plants have reduced their loads, resulting in a slight reduction in overall supply. However, the industry's operating rate is still at a high level, and the pressure of oversupply in the later period remains. The terminal consumption of soda ash is mediocre, and the glass futures price is consolidating at a low level, providing limited support to the upstream. The manufacturer's inventory has continued to accumulate. [25] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to have an interval rebound. SA is expected to be in the range of [1175 - 1205]. [25] Caustic Soda - **行情回顾**: The spot price of caustic soda is stable, the futures market has a weak rebound at a low level, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [27] - **基本逻辑**: On the supply side, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream plants maintain high - load production, and there is an expectation of new production capacity coming on - stream in June - July, increasing the supply pressure. However, there is also an expectation of inventory reduction during the summer maintenance season. On the demand side, the main downstream, alumina, has a slight decline in start - up and a reduction in metallurgical profits, and the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has shifted downwards. [28] - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to the weak rebound driven by inventory reduction during maintenance. Short - position holders should reduce their positions. SH is expected to be in the range of [2300 - 2350]. [2] Methanol - **行情回顾**: On June 20, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,664 yuan/ton (- 12), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,529 yuan/ton (- 14). The East China basis was 135 yuan/ton (+ 2), the port basis was 221 yuan/ton (- 1), the MA9 - 1 month spread was 18 yuan/ton (- 10), and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit increased to 32 dollars/ton (+ 5). [29] - **基本逻辑**: The methanol plant is under maintenance, but the comprehensive operating load is still relatively high. There is negative feedback on the demand side as the load of coastal MTO plants has decreased, and the order volume of upstream methanol enterprises has declined. The valuation is high, and the social inventory has increased. [2] - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short the 09 contract and go long on the 01 contract. MA is expected to be in the range of [2380 - 2440]. [2] Urea - **基本逻辑**: The restart of maintenance devices has led to a high daily production, and the supply - side pressure is large. The industrial demand is weak, but the agricultural demand peak season is approaching, and the fertilizer export growth rate is fast. There is still cost support. [2] - **策略推荐**: Hold previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the opportunity to short at high prices. UR is expected to be in the range of [1710 - 1750]. [2] Asphalt - **基本逻辑**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the oil price has extruded the geopolitical premium, causing it to decline with the cost side in the short term. The supply has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south". [2] - **策略推荐**: Short with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3500 - 3600]. [2]