Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bullish [1] - L: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PP: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PVC: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Short - term bullish [1] - Glass: Weak bullish rebound [2] - Soda ash: Low - level consolidation [2] - Caustic soda: Bearish rebound [2] - Methanol: Bullish [2] - Urea: Bearish but with long - position opportunities [2] - Asphalt: Bullish [2] Core Views - The current core driver of the oil market has shifted from supply - demand to geopolitics. The Israel - Iran conflict dominates oil prices, and short - term oil prices are bullish. Other chemical products are also affected by factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand, and cost [1][5]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market conditions**: On June 20, WTI rose 0.46%, Brent fell 0.09%, and SC rose 2.47%. The current international oil prices are high - level volatile [4]. - **Basic logic**: The core driver is geopolitical, with the Israel - Iran conflict likely to intensify. Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz. Supply: Iran's oil facilities continue to operate. Demand: OPEC forecasts 2025 and 2026 demand growth. Inventory: US commercial crude inventory decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions. Consider option strategies. Long - term, due to factors like trade wars and new energy, oil prices are expected to range between $60 - 70 per barrel. Short - term, expect high - level volatility. SC to focus on [560 - 590] [5][6] LPG - **Market conditions**: On June 20, the PG main contract closed at 4557 yuan/ton, up 1.00%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China had different changes [7]. - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices, which in turn affect LPG. Cost - profit, supply, demand, and inventory all show certain trends. For example, PDH, MTBE, and alkylation开工率 increased, and port inventory decreased [8]. - **Strategy**: Double - buy option strategy. Long - term, the central price may decline. Short - term, due to geopolitics, be cautious with short positions. PG to focus on [4550 - 4750] [9] L - **Market conditions**: The L main contract showed certain price and position changes [10]. - **Basic logic**: Recent shutdown and maintenance of devices, with reduced supply expectations. Downstream demand has a slowdown in restocking. Geopolitical impact on cost weakens. Import may shrink due to the conflict. Maintenance intensity increases this week, and production is expected to decline [10]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish. Negative basis, upstream enterprises can consider selling hedging. L to focus on [7350 - 7550] [10] PP - **Market conditions**: The PP main contract price and position changed [13]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, but the terminal market has not improved substantially. Supply pressure is high in June - July. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and export margins turn negative [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish following the cost. PP to focus on [7150 - 7350] [13] PVC - **Market conditions**: The PVC main contract price and position changed [15]. - **Basic logic**: Macro - policy uncertainty and energy price fluctuations affect the market. Supply remains high, domestic demand is poor, and foreign trade has no growth space. Cost support is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish rebound following the cost. Short - term long, long - term short. V to focus on [4850 - 5050] [15] PX - **Market conditions**: On June 20, PX spot price in East China was flat, and the PX09 contract price decreased. The basis converged [17]. - **Basic logic**: PX profit improves, and domestic and foreign device loads are high. Supply and demand are expected to increase. Inventory is decreasing but still high. PXN spread is not low, and the basis is converging [18]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. PX to focus on [7020 - 7200] [18][19] PTA - **Market conditions**: On June 20, PTA spot price in East China increased, and the TA09 contract price decreased. The basis strengthened [20]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase due to device restarts and new capacity. Downstream polyester load is high, but terminal weaving load is declining. Inventory is decreasing, processing fees are high [21]. - **Strategy**: Go long at low prices. TA to focus on [4930 - 5080] [21] Ethylene Glycol - **Market conditions**: On June 20, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China increased, and the EG09 contract price decreased. The basis strengthened [22]. - **Basic logic**: Device load increases, but arrivals and imports are low. Demand is expected to weaken, downstream polyester load is high, but terminal weaving load is declining. Inventory is decreasing [23]. - **Strategy**: Look for low - long opportunities. EG to focus on [4480 - 4560] [24] Glass - **Market conditions**: The glass main contract price increased slightly, and the basis weakened [25]. - **Basic logic**: Commodity sentiment warms up, but glass mid - term demand decline has not been alleviated. In the short - term, upstream inventory accumulates, and the cost of coal - based production still has profit, so large - scale cold repair is difficult [26]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions. The 5 - day moving average provides weak support. FG to focus on [990 - 1020] [26] Soda Ash - **Market conditions**: The soda ash main contract price decreased slightly, and the basis fluctuated narrowly. Warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - **Basic logic**: Supply increases as device maintenance ends, and new capacity is expected. Demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass weakens. Inventory accumulates, and the cost center moves down [28]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, coal prices rebound, and the cost suppresses the decline speed. Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average. SA to focus on [1150 - 1180] [2] Caustic Soda - **Market conditions**: The caustic soda spot price decreased, and the main contract price rebounded weakly. The basis weakened [30]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from alumina decreases. Overall demand is weakening [30]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average. SH to focus on [2230 - 2280] [2] Methanol - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Upstream profit is good, and domestic device load is high. Iranian supply is expected to decline due to the conflict. Demand feedback is negative, and inventory is low [2]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is short - term bullish. Lightly go long, but also pay attention to high - short opportunities. Consider going long on the 01 contract. MA to focus on [2500 - 2600] [2] Urea - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is high, but agricultural demand is expected to pick up. The Israel - Iran conflict affects international supply, and international prices are short - term bullish [2]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - position opportunities at low prices. UR to focus on [1740 - 1780] [2] Asphalt - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Price is driven by oil prices. Supply increases, inventory accumulates, and demand shows a "north - strong, south - weak" pattern [2]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. BU to focus on [3750 - 3900] [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The short - term trends of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil are rebounds; cotton is under pressure during the rebound; jujube is at risk of a decline; and live pigs are in a wide - range oscillation [1]. - For soybean meal, the overall fundamentals remain bearish, and caution is needed when chasing long positions. For rapeseed meal, due to the strong price of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, there are opportunities to go long at low prices. For palm oil, attention should be paid to the risk fluctuations of crude oil in the future, and caution is needed when chasing long positions above 8700 yuan. For cotton, although there is support at the bottom, the upward momentum is weak. For jujube, be vigilant against the risk of the market rising first and then falling. For live pigs, consider short - selling on rebounds or reverse calendar spreads [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: Internationally, South American soybean production is basically determined, and the planting of US soybeans has started with normal rainfall in June. Domestically, ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are accumulating, and soybean meal supply is also entering a stock - building period. Feed enterprise inventories are gradually returning to the normal range, and spot trading has been average recently [3]. - **Data**: As of June 13, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 742.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.50 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 599.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.41 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.49 million tons [3]. - **Trading Advice**: The previous day's soybean meal rebounded, but approaching the previous high resistance, it is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions and to wait and see. Before the release of the US soybean acreage report, it is expected to run above the 20 - day moving average [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: Domestically, rapeseed meal inventories are much higher than in the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed has been harvested and listed in May. However, from June to August, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and the long - term import volume is expected to be low. The price of old - crop Canadian rapeseed is strong [7]. - **Data**: As of June 13, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 17.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.55 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 million tons; the unexecuted contracts were 5.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.45 million tons [7]. - **Trading Advice**: The short - term adjustment space of the rapeseed meal main contract is limited, and opportunities to go long at low prices can be considered. Pay attention to the subsequent Sino - Canadian trade situation for far - month contracts [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the inventory - building cycle of Southeast Asian palm oil has begun, but factors such as India's increased imports and the promotion of Malaysia's B20 policy have affected market sentiment. Domestically, the commercial inventory of palm oil is low, and imports have improved compared to the previous period [1]. - **Data**: As of the 24th week of 2025 (June 13), the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 40.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.70 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.20 million tons. The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending requirement of 5.61 billion gallons of biomass - based diesel (BBD) in 2026. In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 599,000 tons month - on - month, and China's palm oil imports were 180,000 tons [8]. - **Trading Advice**: The palm oil price rebounded, but considering the inventory - building cycle, caution is needed when chasing long positions above 8700 yuan, and attention should be paid to position control [1][9]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the US cotton planting progress is slow, and the drought situation has improved. Domestically, new cotton is growing well, the import of cotton in May decreased, and the destocking of domestic cotton is fast. However, downstream orders have weakened [11][12]. - **Data**: As of June 16, the US cotton planting progress was 85%. In May 2025, the domestic import of cotton resources was about 124,662 tons. The weekly order volume of textile enterprises decreased by 0.51 days to 9.91 days [11][12]. - **Trading Advice**: The Zhengzhou cotton's upward momentum is weak, but there is support at the bottom, and it is expected to operate in a short - term range [1][13]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: In the production areas, jujube trees are growing well, but high temperatures may affect flowering. The inventory is high, and the demand is in the off - season [15]. - **Data**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,680 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13 tons, higher than the same period by 4,531 tons [15]. - **Trading Advice**: Be vigilant against the risk of the jujube market rising first and then falling, and continuously pay attention to the actual situation in the production areas [1][15]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the planned slaughter in June has decreased slightly, but there may still be an increase in the slaughter plan. In the medium - term, there will be pressure on supply from October to November. In the long - term, the far - month production capacity has not shown an inflection point. The demand for slaughter has decreased, and the second - fattening replenishment has increased [17]. - **Data**: In May 2025, the number of newly - born piglets in steel - union designated enterprises increased by 64,600 to 543,390. The national sample enterprises' pig inventory in May was 37.0841 million, and the slaughter volume was 11.0882 million heads [16][17]. - **Trading Advice**: It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds or conduct reverse calendar spreads for the 09 and 11 contracts, focusing on the subsequent adjustment of production capacity [1][18].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【555-585】 | | LPG | 偏强 | 地缘冲突不确定性上升，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成本端油价受 | | | | 地缘冲击，短线走强，并且伊朗 LPG 出口占国内进口比例约三分之一；下 | | | | 游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好， | | | | 港口库存连续下降。策略：上行风险较大，波动加剧，双买期权。PG | | | | 【4500-4650】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 装置维持高检修，现货涨势放缓，华北基差为-62（环比-14）。2024 年自 | | | | 伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续进口存缩量预期。 | | | | 下周检修力度增加，预计产量继续下降。近期市场情绪好转，下 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量回升，表观需求继续下降，体现了近期较好的高炉利润与需求淡 | | | | 季特征。库存小幅下降，供需总体上矛盾不大，部分地区缺规格现象仍然 | | | | 存在。铁水产量仍然处于高位，出口需求仍然较好。外围地缘政治风险有 | | | | 一定的向上拉动作用，但幅度有限。在现实基本面未出现明显改善的背景 | | | | 下，钢价或继续区间运行。【2970，3010】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅下降，表观需求环比回升，库存重新下降。供需总体相对平 | | | | 衡，矛盾不大。地缘政治风险抬高商品整体水平，但对国内钢价实际影响 | | | | 较有限，预计短期维持区间运行。【3090，3130】 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 供给端发到货双降，港口去库，钢厂增库。整体供需结构环比继续改善。 | | | | 近期煤矿环保减产，煤价走强，支撑原材料价格。短期区间参与，中期逢 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical variables are large, but the long - term trend of reducing dollar dependence globally and the dual - easing of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged, so the long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged. For copper, in the short - term, due to the off - season demand, the price needs to be adjusted, but in the long - term, the supply of global copper mines is tight, and there is confidence in the long - term rise of copper prices. Zinc is expected to have an oversupply situation in the long - term. Aluminum, nickel, and lithium carbonate are all under pressure due to factors such as off - season demand and supply - side pressure [1][3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Core View**: Gold is in a strong shock, and silver has a strong rebound [1]. - **Market Review**: European countries cut interest rates, the geopolitical situation did not expand, gold slightly declined, and silver lacked new drivers, with a large outflow of funds [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates, three European central banks cut interest rates in a row, and there are geopolitical variables. The short - term geopolitical variables are large, and the long - term gold long - bull logic remains unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold is in the adjustment stage, pay attention to the 800 pressure for SHFE gold in the short - term, and consider long - term investment opportunities. Silver lacks new impetus, pay attention to the gap support [3]. Copper - **Core View**: Copper is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: SHFE copper tested the support of the lower integer mark [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, the off - season of consumption is deepening, downstream demand is weak, but green copper demand in power and new energy vehicles is strong [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, take profit on copper long positions, and industrial customers should actively arrange short - hedging at high prices. In the long - term, be confident in the rise of copper prices. SHFE copper focuses on the range of [77800, 78800], and LME copper focuses on [9580, 9680] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Core View**: Zinc is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: Zinc rebounded under pressure and showed a weak shock [9]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply of zinc mines is expected to be loose in 2025, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, zinc is under pressure and tests the previous low support. In the long - term, take short positions at high prices. SHFE zinc focuses on [21700, 22000], and LME zinc focuses on [2600, 2700] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Core View**: Aluminum is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [11]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas trade is uncertain, and the inventory is decreasing, but the demand is entering the off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and the supply is relatively loose [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell SHFE aluminum at high prices, and pay attention to aluminum ingot inventory changes. The main operation range is [20000 - 20800] [12]. Nickel - **Core View**: Nickel rebounds and then falls [1]. - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded weakly, and stainless steel was under pressure [13]. - **Industry Logic**: The cost support of nickel mines is weakening, the supply of refined nickel is excessive, and the stainless steel industry is facing the pressure of off - season and high inventory [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operation range of nickel is [117000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Lithium carbonate is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased positions slightly and oscillated at a low level [15]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply - side pressure of lithium carbonate remains high, the production has recovered to the same - period high, the new capacity is still ramping up, and the inventory is increasing [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell at high prices in the range of [59000 - 60500] [16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线反弹 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升， | | | | 豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存补库有所恢复，但仍有可 | | | | 补库空间，只是积极性预计有所下降。6 月美农报告中性。由于美豆种植基本顺利 | | | | 叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面依然偏空。虽然美豆优良率同比偏低，但目前产量 | | | | 实际影响较小，更多为炒作。前日豆粕维持反弹，由于逼近前高区域阻力，继续追 | | | | 多操作需谨慎，观望为宜。在美豆面积报告公布前，预计将维持 20 日均线以上运 | | | | 行为主。主力【3050，3100】 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量及表观需求继续下降，库存去化良好。铁水产量仍然处于高位， | | | | 钢坯需求良好，铁水转向明显。宏观情绪改善带来的提振有限，同时原料 | | | | 端双焦仍存在一定出货压力。现实基本面尚未出现明显改善，中期重回区 | | | | 间运行，短期表现或偏弱。【2960，3000】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷需求继续回落，近期已低于去年同期，库存延续小幅增加的状态，供 | | | | 需层面偏弱。出口后期存在回落可能，同时黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压 | | | | 制行情表现。中期区间运行，短期表现偏弱。【3070，3110】 | | 铁矿石 | 逢高布空 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量再降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发到货双降，港口钢厂库存双增。整体供需结构好转。近期煤矿环 | | | | 保减产，煤价走强，支撑原材料价格。观点：短期区间操作，中期逢高布 | | | | 空。【685,715】 | | | 区间运行 | 今日焦化利润持续 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【555-585】 | | | | 近期市场不确定性上升，波动加剧，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成 | | LPG | | 本端油价受地缘冲击，短线走强；下游化工需求有所回升，PDH、MTBE | | | 偏强 | 开工率上升；库存端利好，厂库和港口库存均下降。策略：波动加剧，双 | | | | 买期权。PG【4500-4650】 | | | | 上中游去库，基差走弱，华北基差为-48（环比-41）。2024 年 PE 自伊朗 | | | | 进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续相关进口存缩量预期。 | | L | 空头反弹 | 本周检修力度超预期，预计产量下降。近期市场情绪好转，下游阶段性逢 | | | | 低补库， ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market is influenced by factors such as Fed's stance, US economic data, and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold is in a long - term bullish trend, while short - term fluctuations are affected by geopolitical variables. Silver shows strong rebounds but requires careful position control [5][6]. - In the base metals market, copper is expected to be bullish in the long - term due to global copper supply shortages and strategic importance, but short - term risks need to be watched. Zinc has a long - term supply - increase and demand - weak situation, while short - term it has limited downside due to cost support. Aluminum shows short - term strength in the near - month but faces supply - related pressure. Nickel is under pressure due to supply and downstream inventory issues [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply surplus persists, and prices are expected to decline due to increasing inventory expectations [16]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold slightly declined as geopolitical situations did not expand. Silver showed strong rebounds. SHFE gold was at 785.42, up 0.04% from the previous value, and SHFE silver was at 9045, up 2.04% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The Fed kept rates unchanged, US economic data weakened, and there were geopolitical uncertainties. In the long - term, the trend of reducing dollar dependence and fiscal - monetary easing remains, supporting the long - term bullish view of gold [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, consider long - term positions when the opportunity arises, with short - term attention on the 800 resistance. For silver, pay attention to recent high resistance and control positions [6]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper showed narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract of SHFE copper closed at 78610 yuan/ton, down 0.01% [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight, and there are concerns about overseas soft - squeeze risks. The consumption off - season has led to downstream hesitation, but green copper demand has offset some traditional demand shortages [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short - term long positions cautiously and take partial profits at high prices. Be optimistic about copper in the long - term. SHFE copper should be monitored in the range of [78000, 79500], and LME copper in the range of [9650, 9750] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc rebounded under pressure and oscillated around the upper integer level. The main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 21955 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Downstream demand has weakened, and the start - up rate of zinc - related enterprises has declined [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily observe in the short - term. In the long - term, take short positions on rallies. SHFE zinc should be monitored in the range of [21800, 22200], and LME zinc in the range of [2650, 2750] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices were strong in the near - month, and alumina showed a slight stabilization trend. The main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 20680 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: In June, the reduction in domestic aluminum ingot casting led to inventory depletion. The overseas bauxite supply is high, and the alumina supply surplus continues [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rallies for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main contract should be monitored in the range of [20000 - 20800]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel showed a weak trend. The main contract of SHFE nickel closed at 118480 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The increase in nickel ore shipments from the Philippines and the decline in Indonesian nickel ore prices have weakened cost support. Stainless steel inventory pressure has resurfaced as the terminal enters the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption. The main contract of nickel should be monitored in the range of [117000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and rose, with an intraday high - then - low movement [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply surplus of lithium carbonate persists. During the off - season of terminal demand, production has recovered to a high level, and inventory is expected to increase, driving prices down [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies in the range of [59000 - 61000] [16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 按照 短线反弹 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升， | | | | 豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存补库有所恢复，但仍有可 | | | | 补库空间，只是积极性预计有所下降。6 月美农报告中性。由于美豆种植基本顺利 | | 豆粕 | | 叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面依然偏空。虽然美豆优良率同比偏低，但目前产量 | | | | 实际影响较小，更多为炒作内容。前日豆粕维持反弹，由于逼近前高区域阻力，继 | | | | 续追多操作需谨慎，观望为宜。在美豆面积报告公布前，预计将维持 20 日均线以 | | | | 上运行为主。主力【3030，3100】 | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 ...