Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. Individual metal品种ratings are as follows: gold - high - level adjustment; silver - high - level adjustment; copper - rebound under pressure; zinc - rebound under pressure; lead - under pressure; tin - under pressure; aluminum - under pressure; nickel - weak; industrial silicon - correction; polysilicon - correction; lithium carbonate - cautiously bullish [1] Group 2: Core Views - Short - term tariff risks have subsided, but long - term bullish logic for gold remains due to factors like Fed rate - cut expectations, debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping. Silver follows gold and basic metals in adjustment, with long - term upward trend intact. Copper, zinc, lead, tin, and aluminum prices are under pressure due to various factors such as inventory changes and supply - demand imbalances. Nickel price is weak, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are in correction. Lithium carbonate has a cautiously bullish outlook with potential for price fluctuations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Metal (Gold and Silver) Gold - **Core view**: High - level adjustment [1] - **Logic**: Short - term tariff risks are reduced, but long - term factors like weak dollar trend, loose monetary policies, and central bank gold purchases support long - term strategic allocation [1] - **Price range**: [765 - 784] [1] - **Strategy**: Focus on support around 765, long - term trend remains unchanged [3] Silver - **Core view**: High - level adjustment [1] - **Logic**: Follows gold and basic metals in adjustment. Economic demand supports, and long - term upward trend is intact due to fiscal stimulus for industrial demand [1] - **Price range**: [9050 - 9350] [1] - **Strategy**: Focus on 9050 support, treat as short - term adjustment [3] Group 4: Summary by Metal (Copper) - **Core view**: Rebound under pressure [1] - **Logic**: Overseas inventory accumulation, potential US copper import tariff, and high electrolytic copper production drag down prices. However, long - term supply shortage and strategic importance support long - term bullish view [1][5] - **Price range**: Shanghai copper [78000, 79500], London copper [9700, 9850] dollars/ton [1][6] - **Strategy**: Wait for price to stabilize and then look for buying opportunities at low prices [6] Group 5: Summary by Metal (Zinc) - **Core view**: Rebound under pressure [1] - **Logic**: Abundant supply in 2025, increased domestic smelting capacity, and weak demand during off - season lead to price pressure [1][8] - **Price range**: Shanghai zinc [22500, 23000], London zinc [2700, 2900] dollars/ton [1][9] - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [9] Group 6: Summary by Metal (Aluminum) - **Core view**: Under pressure [1] - **Logic**: Domestic consumption is weak, with inventory accumulation and declining downstream processing industry's operating rate. Alumina supply - demand is expected to be loose [1][10][11] - **Price range**: Shanghai aluminum [20000 - 20800] [11] - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to inventory changes [11] Group 7: Summary by Metal (Nickel) - **Core view**: Weak [1] - **Logic**: Uncertain overseas environment, potential high tariffs on Russian nickel, and weak domestic supply - demand situation with inventory accumulation and weak downstream consumption [1][12][13] - **Price range**: [120000 - 123000] [13] - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, pay attention to inventory changes [13] Group 8: Summary by Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Logic**: Supply disruptions exist, and the expected annual surplus is reduced. However, beware of price fluctuations due to market sentiment [1][14][15] - **Price range**: [77000 - 80000] [15] - **Strategy**: Take profit on long positions and wait and see [15]

20250726棉系周报： 宏观转暖不敌供需弱预期 仍需警惕回调风险 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年7月26日 周度综述：摘要 2 7月USDA供需平衡表总览——中美产量调增超消费，全球期末库存调增 | 棉花供需平衡表(7月) | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024/25 | 项目名称 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | | 2025/26 (6月) | 2025/26 (7月) | 环比变化 | 同比变化 1) | | 中国 | | 581.3 | 669.5 | 595.5 | 696.6 | 653.1 | 674.9 | 21.8 | -21.8 | | 印度 | | 529.1 | 572.6 | 553.0 | 522.5 | 511.6 | 511.6 | 0.0 | -10.9 | | 巴西 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段，油厂催提。饲 | | | | 料企业库存开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计有所减缓。美国总统特朗 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 普宣布与印度尼西亚达成农业贸易协议，该国承诺将采购 45 亿美元的美国农产品。 | | | | 印尼是美国大豆的第五大进口国，该消息提振美豆价格上涨。周五国内豆粕价格收 | | | | 跌，市场静待中美贸易谈判新进展。在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑多空双 | | | | 重作用下，豆粕以大区间行情对待。关注本周中美贸易谈判结果。主力【2970，3040】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国内市场， | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧作 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Hold short positions [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: With the decline of coking coal, the bullish sentiment has cooled down, and the rebar price has followed suit. In terms of supply and demand, both the output and apparent demand have rebounded month - on - month, and the total inventory has slightly decreased, with a relatively balanced supply - demand situation. After a short - term correction, the market may enter a high - level fluctuation phase [1][4]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The output and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly increased. The fundamentals are relatively stable with limited contradictions. The market is trading around factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production - restriction policies. The decline of coking coal has driven the steel price down, and it may enter a high - level fluctuation state later [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, the pig iron output has decreased, the supply side has seen an increase in both arrivals and shipments, and there will be further shipment increments. The port inventory has increased. On the market, after the position - limit of coking coal, the price has dropped significantly, and the market sentiment has turned cautious. The short - term market may decline [1][6]. - **Coke**: After the rapid rise of coking coal, the increase of coke has lagged behind. Coke enterprises are still in a loss state, and their production enthusiasm is not high. The supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, and the inventory is relatively stable. With the rapid decline of coking coal, coke has followed the correction [1][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has tightened the position - opening limit for coking coal, and the market sentiment has calmed down, with the market price dropping rapidly. In terms of supply and demand, the domestic coking coal output has generally rebounded recently, and the absolute level is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory has transferred from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory is stable. The impact of the energy bureau's inspection on over - production on output may be limited. After the market's correction, it may enter a calm period, and the market may decline periodically due to little change in fundamentals [1][14]. - **Silicomanganese**: The fundamentals have relatively limited contradictions. The strengthening of coal at the cost end strongly supports the alloy price. Driven by short - term sentiment, the price may still have room to rise [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Last week, both supply and demand increased. The factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, and the near - end warehouse receipt pressure is obvious. Driven by short - term market sentiment, the price may still have room to rise. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may still be under pressure [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: The latest prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot, as well as their price changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of rebar 01 is 3399 with a rise of 46, and the latest price of hot - rolled coil 01 is 3518 with a rise of 46 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Rebar output and apparent demand have rebounded month - on - month, and the total inventory has slightly decreased; hot - rolled coil output and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly increased [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After a short - term correction, the rebar market may enter a high - level fluctuation phase, and attention should be paid to whether the important meeting at the end of the month will reiterate the anti - involution policy. The hot - rolled coil market may enter a high - level fluctuation state later [5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The price range is [760, 810] [1]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Fundamentally, the pig iron output has decreased, the supply side has seen an increase in both arrivals and shipments, and the port inventory has increased [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [7]. Coke - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coke futures contracts and spot, as well as their price changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of the coke 1 - month contract is 1811.0 with a rise of 25.5 [9]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Coke enterprises are still in a loss state, and their production enthusiasm is not high. The supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, and the inventory is relatively stable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coking coal futures contracts and spot, as well as their price changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of the coking coal 1 - month contract is 1318.5 with a rise of 54.0 [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic coking coal output has generally rebounded recently, and the absolute level is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory has transferred from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory is stable [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [15]. Iron Alloys - **Price Information**: The latest prices of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon futures and spot, as well as their price changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of silicomanganese 01 is 6478 with a rise of 458 [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: For silicomanganese, the output and operating rate have continued to rise, with more restarts in southern regions. For ferrosilicon, the output and operating rate have also continued to rise, with both maintenance and restarts in major production areas. The factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level [18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For silicomanganese, pay attention to the trends of leading varieties such as coking coal; for ferrosilicon, the price may still be under pressure in the medium term [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the weekly market conditions of polyolefins (including plastics, PP, and propylene), with a focus on price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Overall, the upward driving force of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it suggests partial reduction of long positions. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Review and Outlook - **2025 - Week 30 Macro Review**: The commodity index and 3P showed certain fluctuations. The whole - week increase was PVC > energy - chemicals > polyolefins > commodities. The market continued to trade on anti - involution policies. PE, PP, and PVC had coal - based proportions of 21%, 23%, and 70% respectively, and old - capacity proportions of 14%, 8%, and 11% respectively [12]. - **2025 - Week 31 Macro Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, anti - involution policies, and US tariff changes. Plastic Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The L2509 contract fluctuated between [7224, 7483] this week, with the price rising driven by multiple news on Friday. The closing price was 7456 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [15][19]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will increase by 30,000 tons. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past 5 years [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory replenishment willingness is insufficient, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The agricultural film start - up rate has improved marginally [4]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially reduce long positions. Focus on the interval [7200 - 7500] for L2509. - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold the long LP09 arbitrage. - **Hedging**: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [5]. PP Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated between [7023, 7239] this week, with the price rising driven by news on Friday. The closing price was 7221 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [56][60]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will rise to 790,000 tons, and the basis and monthly spread have continued to weaken, with the warehouse receipts reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [7]. - **Demand**: The downstream start - up rate remains at around 50%, and the plastic - weaving start - up rate has continued to decline [78][80]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [7050 - 7300] for PP2509. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the long PP9 - 1 spread or MTO position opportunistically. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [8]. Propylene Weekly Fundamental Analysis - **Market Performance**: In the first week of propylene's listing, it fluctuated strongly, with the PL01 contract fluctuating between [6501, 6708]. As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton week - on - week [89][92]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The PDH start - up rate has increased marginally, and the factory inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The supply pressure will continue to increase in the future [93][95]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate has decreased marginally. Most downstream industries maintain a rigid - demand procurement strategy [10]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [6500 - 6700] for PL2601. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the short PL1 - 2 spread. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the premium of the futures price [11].

1. Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: PVC Weekly Report: Monitor Policy Changes and Reduce Long Positions [1] - Investment Rating: Not explicitly provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the PVC market was policy - driven and trended strongly with fluctuations. The V2509 contract fluctuated between 4949 and 5391 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the fundamental situation is deteriorating marginally, but the market is still dominated by policy expectations. Although there are factors restricting the upward movement of the market, such as the release of new production capacity and the emergence of risk - free arbitrage space, given that the policy expectations cannot be falsified, attention should be paid to policy changes in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market Review - **Price Movement**: This week, the PVC futures price fluctuated between 4949 and 5391 yuan/ton, with an opening price of 4956 and a closing price of 5373. Driven by stable - growth policies and various market news, the price reached a weekly high of 5391 yuan/ton on Friday [8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC main contract was 5373 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 436), and the open interest was 860,000 lots (weekly decrease of 124,000), with the de - stocking speed of open interest significantly accelerating [12] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the PVC Changzhou basis was - 213 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 116), and the number of warehouse receipts was 54,412 lots (weekly increase of 1771). The delivery volume in June was 35,000 tons, at a neutral level year - on - year [14] - **Calendar Spread**: As of Friday, the V9 - 1 spread was - 113 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 6) [17] - **Regional and Variety Spreads**: This week, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was significantly driven by coal, and the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC narrowed [20] 3.2 Macro Review and Outlook - **This Week's Macro Events**: The market was affected by policies such as stable - growth policies, rumors of coal mine production rectification, and the release of the draft amendment to the Price Law. The overall weekly increase was PVC > energy and chemicals > polyolefins > commodities [21] - **Next Week's Focus**: Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, anti - involution policies, and US tariff changes [21] 3.3 Monthly Balance Sheet - **Capacity and Production**: In the first quarter, 500,000 tons of new production capacity from Xinpu Chemical was put into operation, and a 300,000 - ton ethylene - based device from Shaanxi Jintai was launched at the beginning of June. In July, a total of 900,000 tons of production capacity from Wanhua Fujian and Bohua Development was gradually released [22][23] - **Supply and Demand Data**: The production, import, export, and apparent consumption of PVC from January to December 2025 are presented in the table, with the production showing a cumulative year - on - year increase, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in apparent consumption gradually narrowing [22] 3.4 Supply - This week, the PVC output was 450,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 77%. From January to week 30, the cumulative year - on - year output increased by 3.9%. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC in China is expected to reach 76.86%, and the overall supply is expected to increase [26] 3.5 Domestic Demand - This week, the downstream operating rate was 42%. The operating rates of profiles and films improved significantly, while the operating rate of pipes declined for three consecutive weeks [28] 3.6 Exports - From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC was 1.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50%. In May, the domestic PVC export volume was 260,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21% [31] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC floor was 2.09 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. In June, the export volume of PVC floor was 320,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% [36] 3.7 Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the large - sample social inventory of PVC was 680,000 tons (weekly increase of 26,000), with continuous inventory accumulation for five weeks, totaling 114,000 tons. The enterprise inventory was 360,000 tons (weekly decrease of 10,000), with continuous inventory reduction for five weeks, mainly due to the increase in upstream pre - sales volume [39] 3.8 Profit - The profit of PVC has been significantly repaired. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 181 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a growth rate of 57.6%, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 89 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a growth rate of 14.9% [9] 3.9 Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: Hold long positions, and some can take profits at high prices. Focus on the range of [5100, 5450] for V2509 [5] - **Hedging Strategy**: Since the futures price is higher than the spot price, industrial customers can sell on the futures market at high prices for hedging [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon - manganese, the fundamentals have relatively limited contradictions. The strengthening of coal at the cost - end strongly supports the alloy price. Driven by market sentiment, the price may still have room to rise. The short - term market fluctuates greatly, and cautious operation is recommended. The reference range for the main contract is [6155, 6675] [3][4] - For ferrosilicon, this week's fundamentals show both supply and demand growth. Currently, the factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period. In the short term, driven by market sentiment, the price may still have room to rise. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5955, 6375] [52][53] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manganese - Silicon 1.1 Market Review - As of July 25, the closing price of the manganese - silicon main contract was 6414 yuan/ton, the spot price in Jiangsu was 6090 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 324 yuan/ton [7] - Spot prices in the main production areas increased by 50 - 170 yuan/ton [8] 1.2 Supply - As of July 25, the total national silicon - manganese output was 186,480 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,640 tons; the operating rate was 41.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05%. Inner Mongolia's daily average output increased by 150 tons/day; Yunnan's daily average output increased by 160 tons/day, and the operating rate increased to 85.38% [13] 1.3 Demand - As of July 25, the weekly demand for silicon - manganese was 123,670 tons, a week - on - week increase of 289 tons. The daily average output of molten iron from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 million tons; the weekly output of rebar was 2.1196 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons [17] - Hebei Iron and Steel Group's procurement price for silicon - manganese alloy in July was 5,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with June; the procurement volume was 14,600 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons compared with June [21] 1.4 Inventory - The total inventory of alloy plants was 205,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,300 tons [22] 1.5 Cost and Profit - The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were 5,736.34 yuan/ton and 6,240.59 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 56.34 yuan/ton and - 540.59 yuan/ton respectively [27] 1.6 Manganese Ore - As of July 25, the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port increased slightly. South32's August manganese ore quotes to China showed some price adjustments [29][33] - The shipping and arrival volumes decreased month - on - month, and the decline in the port clearance volume slowed down. The port inventory was expected to remain at a low level in the short term [4] - As of July 18, the total national port inventory was 4.285 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42,000 tons; Tianjin Port's inventory was 3.42 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 64,000 tons [38] - The average available days of manganese ore inventory in alloy plants was 13 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.36% [41] 1.7 Other Costs - The power price in the production area remained stable, and the ex - factory price of chemical coke in Ningxia was 1,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with last week [44] 2. Ferrosilicon 2.1 Market Review - As of July 25, the closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract was 6,166 yuan/ton, the spot price in Jiangsu was 5,900 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 266 yuan/ton [56] - Spot prices in the main production areas increased by 250 - 300 yuan/ton [57] 2.2 Supply - As of July 25, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; the operating rate was 32.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88% [60] 2.3 Demand - As of July 25, the weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 20,065.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52 tons [63] - Hebei Iron and Steel Group's procurement price for ferrosilicon alloy in July was 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with June; the procurement volume was 2,700 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with June [66] - In June, the output of magnesium ingots decreased month - on - month, and the export volume of ferrosilicon continued to decline month - on - month. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of ferrosilicon was 200,047 tons, a decrease of 22,498 tons (a decline of 10.11%) compared with the same period last year [69] 2.4 Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons [70] 2.5 Cost and Profit - The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,421 yuan/ton and 5,274 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were 79 yuan/ton and 226 yuan/ton respectively [74] - The price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi was 540 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared with last week [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, coking coal in the black sector became the biggest driving force, with consecutive daily limit up movements driving the continuous upward trend of steel prices. The expected Politburo meeting and industry policies will still support the market, and the overall warm atmosphere has not ended. The supply - demand fundamentals of the five major steel products have limited contradictions, with supply and demand rising and falling among different varieties and relatively stable inventory [3]. - Currently, the market is trading around macro - sentiment and industry policy expectations. Under the tone of "anti - involution and capacity reduction", many industries have introduced corresponding measures, and the market atmosphere is still quite enthusiastic. Before the introduction of steel policies, the market may not experience an obvious correction, but after the continuous sharp rise of coking coal, the high - level risks are also increasing. The steel market may enter a high - level fluctuation state in the future, and the possibility of further upward movement cannot be ruled out. In the medium - to - long term, pay attention to policy expectations and consumption nodes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Production - **Monthly Data**: In June 2025, the monthly production of pig iron was 71910,000 tons (-4.1% year - on - year), crude steel was 83180,000 tons (-9.2% year - on - year), and steel was 127840,000 tons (1.8% year - on - year). The cumulative production of pig iron was 434670,000 tons (-0.8% year - on - year), crude steel was 514830,000 tons (-3.0% year - on - year), and steel was 734380,000 tons (4.6% year - on - year). Steel imports were 470,000 tons (-18.3% year - on - year) and exports were 9680,000 tons (10.9% year - on - year) [5]. - **Weekly Data**: As of July 25, 2025, the total weekly output of the five major steel products was 866970 tons (-1.22% change), with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.25%. Among them, the output of rebar was 211960 tons (2.9% change, -6% cumulative year - on - year), wire rod was 85250 tons (-1.1% change, -10% cumulative year - on - year), hot - rolled coil was 317490 tons (-3.65% change, 0% cumulative year - on - year), cold - rolled coil was 86960 tons (-0.05% change, 1.05% cumulative year - on - year), and medium - thick plate was 165310 tons (0.68% change, 1.68% cumulative year - on - year) [6]. - **Production Profit**: On July 24, 2025, the profits of different steel products in different regions showed different changes. For example, in East China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 349, rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was 5, rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was 74, and hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 42 [22]. Steel Demand - **Building Materials Consumption**: The real - estate high - frequency data shows that the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.4%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 6.7%. The cement outbound volume has been stable recently, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28%. The concrete shipment volume is relatively balanced, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15% [29][32]. - **Coil Consumption**: The current export volume of steel is still at a high level. Recently, the domestic and foreign prices of hot - rolled coils have declined, which may affect future exports [38]. Steel Inventory - **Inventory Data**: As of July 25, 2025, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1337000 tons (-1.16% change), with a year - on - year decrease of 23.97%. Among them, the rebar inventory was 538640 tons (-4.62% change, -29.15% year - on - year), wire rod inventory was 98220 tons (1.05% change, -36% year - on - year), hot - rolled coil inventory was 345160 tons (2.25% change, -20% year - on - year), cold - rolled coil inventory was 169950 tons (-0.27% change, -10.06% year - on - year), and medium - thick plate inventory was 184530 tons (0.43% change, -17.56% year - on - year) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The rebar basis remained stable, at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. During this price increase, the spot and futures prices generally increased synchronously, and the low rebar inventory supported the spot price. The hot - rolled coil basis continued to decline this week, and seasonally, it still faces the law of weakening in the later stage. The rebar monthly spread continued to weaken this week, and the back structure continued to develop. The 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coils fluctuated at a low level this week with little change [52][57][62].

碳酸锂周报： 供给超预期收缩，碳酸锂强势上涨 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2025.7.25 本周碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【宏观概况】中国"反内卷"持续升级，全面修订《价格法》。各行业开展反内卷行动，大宗商品市场多头氛围浓厚。欧洲央行 连续八次降息后按下暂停键，9月降息预期下滑。欧元区7月PMI升至51创近一年新高。美国7月Markit制造业PMI下降至49.5，但 整体商业活动创12月以来最快扩张。特朗普表示将对大部分国家征收15%-50%的简单关税，关税风险降低，市场风险偏好回升。 【供给端】本周碳酸锂产量连续9周上升，处于近5年高位。周内关于供应端的小作文较多，江西和青海各有企业停产，其余企业 维持正常生产，部分厂家由于价格波动较大选择停售。 【需求端】7月1-20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售53.7万辆，同比去年7月同期增长23%，较上月同期下降12%，全国乘用车新能 源市场零售渗透率54.9%；7月1-20日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发51.4万辆，同比去年7月同期增长25%，较上月同期下降12%， 全国乘用车厂商新能源批发渗透率53.6%。 【成本利润】本周矿端价格环比调涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment, long-term strategic allocation [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bounce under pressure, long-term optimistic [1] - Zinc: Bounce under pressure, long-term supply increase and demand decrease [1] - Lead: Bounce under pressure [1] - Tin: Bounce under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bounce under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bounce under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - Some tariffs have been implemented, reducing the safe-haven sentiment, leading to an adjustment in gold and silver prices. However, the strong long-term support factors for gold, such as a weak US dollar, interest rate cuts, debt issuance, and central bank gold purchases, still exist [2] - The copper market is affected by a rebound in the US dollar index, with high-level consolidation. In the long term, the tight global copper ore supply and its strategic importance support a positive outlook [5] - The zinc market faces supply surplus and demand weakness during the off-season, with prices under pressure. Long-term, there are opportunities to short on rallies [8] - The aluminum market is pressured by inventory accumulation, and the price rebound is limited. Alumina also shows a similar trend [11] - The nickel market is suppressed by supply factors, and the price is under pressure. Stainless steel also faces inventory pressure during the off-season [13] - The lithium carbonate market is influenced by supply disruptions, and the price remains strong. Low-buying strategies are recommended [14] Summary by Variety Gold - **Core view**: High-level adjustment, long-term strategic allocation [1] - **Main logic**: Short-term tariff risks have landed, reducing the risk and causing a price adjustment. However, Powell's pressure, a medium-term weak US dollar trend, and loose monetary policies of multiple countries, along with continued central bank gold purchases, support long-term investment [1] - **Price range**: 770 - 794 [1] Silver - **Core view**: Bullish [1] - **Main logic**: Supported by economic demand, with increased industrial and physical demand due to loose fiscal policies. Short-term, it is affected by gold's adjustment sentiment [1] - **Price range**: 9250 - 9550 [1] Copper - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure, long-term optimistic [1] - **Main logic**: The US dollar index rebounds, and domestic social copper inventories have decreased seasonally. In the long term, the tight global copper ore supply and its strategic importance support a positive outlook [1][6] - **Price range**: Shanghai copper 78500 - 80500; London copper 9700 - 10000 USD/ton [7] Zinc - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure, long-term supply increase and demand decrease [1] - **Main logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and new smelting capacity is being released. Demand is weak during the off-season [9] - **Price range**: Shanghai zinc 22600 - 23200; London zinc 2750 - 2950 USD/ton [10] Lead - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Affected by maintenance in domestic primary lead smelters and increased losses in secondary lead enterprises, with high social inventories [1] - **Price range**: 16500 - 17200 [1] Tin - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State tin mines during the rainy season, with weak supply and demand in the domestic market and inventory accumulation [1] - **Price range**: 265000 - 273000 [1] Aluminum - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Disturbance from overseas bauxite news, inventory accumulation in domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods, and weakening开工率 in the aluminum processing industry [1][11] - **Price range**: 20500 - 21000 [1] Nickel - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Stable overseas nickel ore prices, slowdown in downstream stainless steel production cuts, and inventory accumulation during the off-season [1][13] - **Price range**: 122000 - 124000 [1] Industrial Silicon - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Main logic**: The market is strongly influenced by policies, with an increase in southwest开工率 and stable demand [1] - **Price range**: 9600 - 10000 [1] Polysilicon - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Main logic**: The "sales price not lower than cost" provides strong support, with little change in fundamentals and positive market sentiment [1] - **Price range**: 51000 - 56000 [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Core view**: Bullish [1] - **Main logic**: Little change in fundamentals, sensitive to positive news, and influenced by supply disruptions. Technical indicators are strong [1][15] - **Price range**: 75000 - 80000 [1]