| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 关税战缓和提振市场情绪，商品普遍反弹，但持续性或不强。螺纹供需层 | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 面有所改善，但铁水产量维持高位，后期钢材整体或存在趋于宽松的压力。 | | | | 市场对政策仍有期待，短期维持区间运行。【3050，3170】 | | | | 热卷供需从数据上看暂时无明显矛盾，但出口存在回落可能。短期受特朗 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 普态度缓和提振市场情绪，但预计对市场影响的持续性有限，难有持续性 | | | | 上涨，或维持区间运行。【3150，3270】 | | | | 阶段性供应收缩，铁水产量大幅增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持 | | | | 高位。随着外矿发运逐渐恢复放量，铁矿基本面边际转弱。下游需求仍在 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 改善，但市场对高铁水的承接力担忧更甚。关注钢厂节前补库及宏观政策 | | | | 出台情况。单边短线参与，跨期正套持有【670,750】 | | | | 铁水日产量继续上升至 244 万吨以上的高位，钢厂生产积极性较高，对原 | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国关税态度又发生变化，谈判过程仍然不确定，脱钩仍是主要矛盾，购金力 | | 黄金 | 高位调整 | 量仍然较多，长期看，国际秩序破坏，去美元化是主力，各经济体购金动力积 | | | | 极，黄金是未来秩序筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【766-800】 | | | | 关税放缓缓解了经济增长忧虑，白银等基本金属情绪有所好转，但中期看不确 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 定性较大。白银弹性大跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附近， | | | | 操作上区间思路对待，秩序将改变，金银比或短期失效。【8000-8500】 | | | | 特朗普再度川剧变脸，其不确定性是市场主要风险来源，政治局会议临近，市场情 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 绪回暖，国内需求韧性显现，库存连续去化，短期多单谨慎持有，回调背靠下方均 | | | | 线把握逢低试多机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【76500，79500】 | | | | 国内锌锭库存去化叠加月底政治局会议临近，市场情绪回升，锌反弹突破上方 | | 锌 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短期下跌 | 中美贸易加征关税事件进一步利多影响有限。南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植即 货提振豆粕消费。5-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。受豆粕低库存，现货供应偏紧影 | | | | 将开启。国内港口及油厂大豆连续三两周累库，本周大豆开机继续回升，但节前备 | | | | 响，近月合约暂维持强势，主力合约窄幅整理，尚未打破短期调整格局。国际层面 | | | | 美豆未来十五天降雨展望充沛，以及国内 4 月开始进入集中进口供应季，在缺乏基 | | | | 本面利多预期下，豆粕主力短期暂以偏空运行格局为主。节前看多追多操作谨慎对 | | | | 待。主力【3000，3065】 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 | 国内菜粕库存远高于过去两年同期，加上 5 月国内迎来新季菜籽收获上市。菜粕短 | | | | 期供应预计充足。豆菜粕现货价差近日再度扩大至 600 元/吨以上，菜粕替代性下 | | | | 降。截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜粕库存偏低，低于过去两年同期，对现货 | | | | 价格带来支持，消 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位调整 | 特朗普战术上口风放缓，但谈判过程仍然不确定，脱钩仍是主要矛盾，购金力 量仍然较多，长期看，国际秩序破坏，不确定困扰持续，各经济体购金动力积 | | | | 极，黄金是成为未来秩序的重要筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【766-800】 | | | | 关税放缓缓解了经济增长忧虑，白银等基本金属情绪有所好转，但长期看细则 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 落地尚需时日。白银弹性大跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附 | | | | 近，操作上区间思路对待，秩序将改变，金银比或短期失效。【8000-8500】 | | | | 特朗普改口降低对华关税，但只是缓兵之计，其不确定性是市场主要风险来源，政 治局会议临近，市场情绪回暖，国内需求韧性显现，库存连续去化，短期多单谨慎 | | 铜 | 反弹 | | | | | 持有，回调背靠下方均线把握逢低试多机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【76500，79500】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 锌精矿供应平稳增长，终端需求偏弱，锌 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 关税战缓和提振市场情绪，商品普遍反弹，但持续性或不强。螺纹供需层 | | | | 面有所改善，但铁水产量维持高位，后期钢材整体或存在趋于宽松的压力。 | | | | 市场对政策仍有期待，短期维持区间运行。【3050，3170】 | | | | 热卷供需从数据上看暂时无明显矛盾，但出口存在回落可能。短期受特朗 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 普态度缓和提振市场情绪，但预计对市场影响的持续性有限，难有持续性 | | | | 上涨，或维持区间运行。【3150，3270】 | | | | 阶段性供应收缩，铁水产量止增转降，但钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高 | | | | 位。随着外矿发运逐渐恢复放量，铁矿基本面边际转弱。下游需求仍在改 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 善，关注钢厂节前补库及宏观政策出台情况。单边短线参与，跨期正套持 | | | | 有【680,760】 | | | | 铁水日产量仍然维持在 240 万吨左右的高位，钢厂生产积极性较高，对原 | | 焦炭 | 弱势运行 | 料需求有保 ...

| | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油期货价格 | | | | | | 价格走势 | | WTI主力 | 美元/桶 | 62. 27 | 63. 67 | -1.4 | -2. 20% | | | Brent主力 | 美元/桶 | 65. 18 | 67. 44 | -2. 26 | -3. 35% | | | SC主力 | 元/桶 | 498. 6 | 487. 5 | 11.1 | 2. 28% | | | 原油现货价格 | | | | | | | | 布伦特Dtd | 美元/桶 | 68. 98 | 68. 28 | 0.7 | 1.03% | | | 美国WTI | 美元/桶 | 62. 27 | 64. 31 | -2. 04 | -3.17% | | | 阿曼 | 美元/桶 | 68. 5 | 68. 44 | 0.06 | 0. 09% | | | 跨市场价差 | | | | 涨跌 | | | | Brent-WTI | 美元/桶 | 2. 91 | 3.77 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term decline. With limited further positive impact from China - US trade tariff events, upcoming US soybean planting, and China's concentrated soybean imports starting in April, it has a short - term bearish outlook. Caution is advised for bullish and chasing - up operations before the holiday [1][2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term rebound, but overall bearish. High domestic rapeseed meal inventory, new - season rapeseed harvest in May, and an enlarged soybean - rapeseed meal price difference lead to reduced substitution. It is under pressure in the short term, and chasing - up should be cautious [1][4][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation. International palm oil supply is recovering, and its price center may shift downward. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and no supply - side pressure for now. Caution is needed for bullish and chasing - up operations, and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil prices, and Malaysia's April palm oil export data [1][8][9]. - **Cotton**: Range - bound oscillation. US cotton planting is ongoing with improved soil moisture, and there is a temporary buffer in the tariff war. In China, new cotton planting is over half - done, and the market has a supply - demand imbalance. After the release of short - term negative factors, the price is expected to oscillate within a range [1][10][13]. - **Red Dates**: Weak operation. The focus is on planting, with sufficient supply and weak demand due to the arrival of fresh fruits. It is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation, and attention should be paid to the new production season [1][14][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Be vigilant against corrections. The supply pressure will continue to dominate the market in the second half of 2025. The narrowing of the standard - fat price difference reflects weak fat - pig demand, and there is a risk of price suppression from the release of heavy - weight pigs. Be cautious about the post - holiday market correction [1][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The main contract closed at 3054 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3671.43 yuan/ton, up 2.96%. The national average soybean crushing profit was 412.4603 yuan/ton, up 98.59 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the impact of China - US trade tariffs is limited, and US soybean planting is about to start. Domestically, from April to June, the monthly average import is over 10 million tons. As of April 18, port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, while soybean meal inventory is decreasing [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The main contract closed at 2658 yuan/ton, up 1.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2612.63 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 715.746 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.82 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May. The soybean - rapeseed meal price difference has expanded to over 600 yuan/ton, reducing the substitution of rapeseed meal [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The main contract closed at 8130 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous day. The national average price was 9013 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The national daily trading volume was 200 units, down 64.29% [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In April, international palm oil supply and demand both increased. Indonesia's March exports decreased slightly, while Malaysia's April 1 - 20 production increased by 9.11% and exports increased by 3.64%. The probability of inventory accumulation is high [8][9]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 12795 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the previous day. The domestic spot average price was 14215 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The cotton commercial inventory was 420.02 tons, down 11 tons [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the US, the cotton planting rate was 11% as of April 20. In China, the intended cotton planting area in 2025 is 43.763 million mu, up 1.5%. The spring peak season is ending, and textile orders and开机 rates are declining [11][12]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2509 closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 3.23% from the previous day. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 10521 tons, down 134 tons from the previous week [14][15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Xinjiang's jujube trees are gradually sprouting. The supply in the downstream market is sufficient, and the demand is weakening due to the arrival of fresh fruits [15]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14485 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14940 yuan/ton, down 0.40%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory was 36.891 million heads, up 0.36% [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply pressure in April - June is incrementally limited, but it will increase in the third quarter. The market is still facing supply - demand imbalance, and there is a risk of price correction after the holiday [17][18].

Group 1: Report on Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold remains strong in the long - term due to international order disruption and high purchasing power from various economies, with a long - term strategic allocation value and a price range of 790 - 840 [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, following the fluctuations of gold and base metals, and should be treated with an interval trading approach, with a price range of 8000 - 8500 [1]. - Copper is expected to rebound. Short - term long positions can be carefully held, and mid - to long - term prospects are positive, with Shanghai copper in the range of 76500 - 78500 [1]. - Zinc's upward movement is under pressure. Short - term rebound is limited, and mid - to long - term, it presents a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with Shanghai zinc in the range of 21800 - 22800 [1]. - Lead and tin prices are expected to rise and then fall, with price ranges of 16300 - 17300 and 255000 - 265000 respectively [1]. - Aluminum prices will rise slightly, with a price range of 19500 - 20300 [1]. - Nickel prices are expected to rise and then fall, with a price range of 123000 - 129000 [1]. - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate should be sold on rebounds, with price ranges of 8600 - 9000 and 67000 - 70000 respectively [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Trump's change of attitude led to a short - term adjustment in gold. During the 90 - day tariff suspension period, the negotiation process is uncertain, which supports gold in the long run. Gold prices in SHFE and COMEX showed different trends, and the silver price was in a range [2]. - **Industry Logic**: Tariff impacts are negative. Trump's attitude towards Japan in trade and towards Powell in interest - rate policies changed. The emergence of reciprocal tariffs accelerates the global de - dollarization process, and both short - term and long - term factors support gold prices [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term gold investment is recommended, with short - term chasing of long positions requiring careful control of positions. Silver should be traded within the range of 8000 - 8500 [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: US copper rose significantly, and Shanghai copper followed suit, stabilizing above the 77,000 mark [5]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased in March but is expected to decline in April. Social inventories are continuously decreasing, and terminal demand is supported by power investment, new energy vehicles, and the air - conditioning season [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions and buy on dips near the moving averages. Short - term Shanghai copper is in the range of 76500 - 78500, and London copper is in the range of 9000 - 9500 US dollars per ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc's rebound is under pressure, and its upward space is limited [8]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is increasing steadily. Terminal demand is weak, especially with the impact of anti - dumping tariffs on exports. The profits of zinc smelters have turned positive, and production is increasing [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term rebound is limited, waiting for more macro - level guidance. Mid - to long - term, short on rallies. Shanghai zinc is in the range of 21800 - 22800, and London zinc is in the range of 2580 - 2680 US dollars per ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are relatively strong, while alumina is under pressure [10]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the impact of tariffs is weakening, inventories are decreasing, and demand is increasing. For alumina, there are supply - side issues with over - supply in the short - term and price pressure in the mid - term [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly go long on Shanghai aluminum on dips, with the main contract in the range of 19500 - 20300. Alumina is expected to be relatively weak [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel prices are also weak [12]. - **Industry Logic**: The impact of tariffs on nickel is weakening. There are policy uncertainties in Indonesia's nickel mines, and stainless steel inventory removal is facing difficulties, with an overall oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, with nickel's main contract in the range of 123000 - 129000 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 of lithium carbonate hit a new low [14]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply of lithium carbonate is in excess, but the inventory accumulation speed is slowing down. There is a possibility of small - scale restocking by downstream factories, and there is a chance to short on rebounds [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is expected to be weak, and short on rebounds, with a price range of 67000 - 70000 [15].

资料来源：iFinD，mysteel，中辉期货 【品种观点】 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3108 | -34 | 热卷01 | 3196 | -36 | | 螺纹05 | 3006 | -33 | 热卷05 | 3152 | -39 | | 螺纹10 | 3075 | -38 | 热卷10 | 3171 | -38 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2940 | -20 | 张家港废钢 | 2080 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3160 | -10 | 热卷:天津 | 3200 | -10 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3160 | -20 | 热卷:上海 | 3220 | -40 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3160 | -30 | 热卷： 杭州 | 3250 | -10 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3420 | 0 | 热卷： 广州 | 3240 | -20 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3310 | 10 | 热卷:成都 ...

资料来源：IFIND，钢联，中辉期货研究院 【行情回顾】：隔夜国际油价上行，WTI 上升 2.02%，Brent 上升 1.78%，内盘 SC 下降 0.41%。 【基本逻辑】：核心驱动，部分 OPEC+成员国提交补偿性减产计划，油价短期得到支撑，API 数据显 示美国原油超预期下降，油价上行，但原油供给过剩局面仍为改变，油价上行压力上升。供给方面， 4 月 22 日，伊朗石油部长表示，如果美国制裁取消，伊朗原油产量将在 1 年内显著提升至 2015 年 水平附近；今年一季度，伊拉克原油和成品油出口较上年同期下降 11 万桶/日至 370 万桶/日；JODI 周二发布数据显示，沙特 2 月份原油出口量较 1 月份增长近 50 万桶/日至 654.7 万桶/日。需求方面， 国家统计局公布数据显示，中国 3 月汽油产量 1322.00 万吨，同比下降 6.10%，1-3 月累计产量为 3905.30 万吨，同比下降 5.10%。库存方面，EIA 最新数据显示，截至 4 月 11 日当周，美国商业原油 库存增加 51.5 万桶至 4.429 亿桶，战略原油储备增加 30 万桶至 3.970 亿桶，汽油库存减少 20 ...