| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短线下跌 | 中美贸易加征关税事件进一步利多影响有限。南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植即 | | | | 将开启。国内港口及油厂大豆连续两周累库，本周大豆开机回升，预计下周豆粕库 | | | | 存有望逐步进入累库周期。4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。受现货供应偏紧近月合 | | | | 约带动，昨日豆粕小幅收涨。由于国际层面美豆未来十五天降雨展望充沛，以及国 | | | | 内 4 月开始进入集中进口供应季，在缺乏基本面利多支持下，豆粕短期偏空运行格 | | | | 局为主。主力【3000，3080】 | | | 短期下跌 | 国内菜粕库存远高于过去两年同期，加上 5 月国内迎来新季菜籽收获上市。菜粕短 | | | | 期供应预计充足。豆菜粕现货价差近日再度扩大至 600 元/吨以上，菜粕替代性下 | | 菜粕 | | 降。盘面上，受短期库存及供应压力影响，菜粕短期承压下跌，偏空对待，前日受 | | | | 豆粕带动反弹收涨，暂以反弹对待。主力【2585,2660】 | | 棕榈油 | 短线反 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 黄金强势逻辑继续。大国多方面博弈剧烈，特朗普要求鲍威尔下台，美元去化 | | 黄金 | 强势 | 加速，黄金是成为未来秩序的重要筹码。长期看，国际秩序破坏，不确定困扰 | | | | 持续，各经济体购金动力积极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【790-830】 | | | | 全球需求释放或再现，商品市场波动剧烈，但是关税谈判以及短期需警惕流动 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 性危机。白银弹性大跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附近，操 作上区间思路对待，秩序将改变，金银比或短期失效。【8000-8500】 | | | | 美元指数走弱跌破 98 关口，伦铜休市，沪铜走出独立行情，国内 LPR 按兵不动， | | 铜 | 反弹 | 市场期待政治局会议政策刺激，市场情绪回暖，短期多单谨慎持有，回调背靠下方 | | | | 均线把握逢低试多机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【75000，78000】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 海内外库存累积，终端需求偏弱，锌区间震荡，空单可部分逢低止盈 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡 | 行至阻力位，油价震荡调整。美伊进行核问题谈判，地缘风险有所缓解；近期美国豁免 | | | | 中国部分产品"对等关税"，关税战争缓和；OPEC+部分成员国补偿性减产。SC【480-495】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 现货下调叠加成本走弱，液化气偏弱。成本端原油回落，液化气现货下调；厂内和港口 | | | | 库存均下降；下游 PDH 开工下降，烷基化、MTBE 开工上升。PG【4350-4450】 | | L | 偏弱 | 社库窄幅下降，装置维持高开工，震荡偏弱，关注后续进口变动。中长期，装置投产压 | | | | 力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。L【7100-7200】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 供需双弱，现货窄幅波动，反制裁加剧 PDH 供给收缩预期，短期供给依旧充沛，震荡偏 | | | | 弱。中长期，装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。PP【7000-7100】 | | PVC | 关注 偏弱 | 5 月台塑报价，降息预期落空，仓单转降，氯碱一体化成本转弱，短期震荡偏弱。 | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 低位运行 | 螺纹需求增加明显，已接近去年同期。产量小幅回落，库存去化较好，供 | | | | 需层面有所改善。但铁水产量维持高位，后期钢材整体供需或存在趋于宽 | | | | 松的压力。市场对政策仍有期待，短期市场低位震荡运行。【3050，3150】 | | 热卷 | 低位运行 | 热卷供需均小幅增加，数据上看暂时无明显矛盾。但贸易摩擦升级以及越 | | | | 南、韩国反倾销政策或对出口预期产生影响。中期基本面仍有趋于宽松的 | | | | 倾向，短期市场低位震荡运行，等待驱动指引。【3150，3250】 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 发到货双增，铁水产量止增转降，但钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 随着外矿发运逐渐恢复放量，铁矿基本面边际转弱。下游需求仍在改善， | | | | 关注钢厂节前补库及宏观政策出台情况。【670,750】 | | | | 铁水日产量仍然维持在 240 万吨左右的高位，钢厂生产积极性较高，对原 | | 焦炭 | 弱势运行 | 料需求有保障。焦炭周产量持 ...

能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李倩 F03134406 尿素周报： 供应压力依旧较大，水稻农需用肥预期向好 社会库存有所累库，成本支撑关注低多机会 时间：2024/04/19 供应端压力较大，农业水稻用肥需求有望开启，成本尚有支撑 2 • 检修装置陆续恢复，供应端压力预期增加。下周暂无企业装置计划停车，随着前期停车企业的陆续恢复， 尿素日产可能会再次提升至较高水平。随着5月煤制尿素企业装置停车，尿素日产有望下降。近期，煤制尿 素方面，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，2-3家停车企业可能恢复生产。气制尿素方面，下周暂无气头企业计 划停车，1-2家停车企业恢复生产。具体企业方面，阳煤丰喜（40）、陕化煤化工（52）、靖远刘化（35）、 长山化工（30）、宁夏石化（80）、中石油乌鲁木齐石化（60）装置开车。最新数据显示，尿素周度加权 成本1751.51（-8.89）元/吨，加权利润96.23（-0.62）元/吨，但仍处近五年同期低位；尿素生产企业周 度装置检修损失量16.08（+1.62）万吨，高于去年同期但处近五年同期偏低位置。周度开工率85.74%（- ...

PVC周报： 社库续降难敌成本下移，低位震荡 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 时间：2025/4/21 社库续降难敌成本下移，低位震荡 【本周概况】 观点回顾：春检陆续启动，关注库存去化的可持续性。下周天津渤化、安徽华塑、宁夏金昱元、四川金路 仍在检修中，加之部分企业开工负荷下降，产量存季节性下滑预期。"对等关税"落地，利空终端地板制 品企业出口，管材、型材等国内地产相关产品影响不大。近期烧碱现货价格持续下跌，山东氯碱一体化装 置成本支撑好转。盘面低估值下底部有支撑。关注后续宏观政策变动及春季检修力度。策略上，择机回调 做多。V2505关注区间【4800，5100】，V2509关注区间【4950，5200】 观点复盘：本周V2505波动区间【4890，4967】，波动率显著下移，盘面低位震荡。基本面看，检修持续 进行，厂库周环比-4万吨，社会库存连续6周去化。内需边际下滑，3月出口量为37万吨，前3月出口累计 同比+36%，维持高增速。基本面边际好转，但烧碱现货价格低位反弹，电石重心持续下移，氯碱一体化成 本下移。 【下 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **PE (Polyethylene)**: The market is in a state of strong supply and weak demand, with a downward - trending price outlook. In the short - term, although cost support has improved due to the rebound in crude oil prices, the fundamental situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, leading to a decline in both futures and spot prices. In the long - term, it is still in a capacity expansion cycle, and the center of crude oil prices is expected to continue to decline, so the market is bearish on rebounds. The recommended trading strategy is to hold a short position in the L - PP09 spread. The L2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of [7050 - 7250] next week [3][4]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) device has not shown a significant reduction in load. Although the operation of PDH devices is under pressure due to tariff counter - sanctions, the supply has not significantly decreased for the time being. In the long - term, multiple sets of devices are planned to be put into production in the second quarter, so the medium - and long - term pattern is weak, and the market is bearish on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the changes in PDH devices. The PP2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of [7050 - 7200] next week [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory **This Week's Review** - **PE**: The view was that new devices were coming into operation one after another, and the market was expected to be weak and volatile. The supply was generally loose due to the commissioning of new devices and the restart of maintenance devices. The demand was weak as the peak season for agricultural films was ending, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid replenishment. The L2509 contract's price center continued to move down this week, with the price fluctuating in the range of [7106 - 7272]. The supply was abundant due to profit restoration, and the weekly output increased for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The operating rate of agricultural films declined for three consecutive weeks. Although the cost support improved due to the rebound in crude oil prices, the fundamental situation of strong supply and weak demand led to a decline in both futures and spot prices [3]. - **PP**: The view was that the PDH device had not shown a significant reduction in load, and the supply was sufficient. Although the operation of PDH devices was under pressure due to tariff counter - sanctions, the supply had not significantly decreased for the time being. The profit of oil - based and coal - based enterprises had improved, and the upstream supply was still abundant. The profit still had room for short - selling. The PP2509 contract's price center moved down this week, with the price fluctuating in the range of [7088 - 7215]. The market fluctuated mainly following the commodity sentiment, with both supply and demand decreasing and the inventory of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream enterprises decreasing marginally [6]. **Next Week's Outlook** - **PE**: The supply will remain loose as new devices are coming into operation and existing devices are operating at a high rate. Although there is an expectation of supply reduction due to counter - sanctions, the pressure of inventory accumulation will gradually increase as demand weakens. The L2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of [7050 - 7250]. The strategy of holding a short position in the L - PP09 spread should be continued [4]. - **PP**: Attention should be paid to the changes in PDH devices, and the market is bearish on rebounds. Multiple devices are planned for maintenance and restart next week, and the planned maintenance loss of polypropylene is expected to increase. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene is expected to decline to around 76.5%. The L2505 contract is expected to trade in the range of [7050 - 7200] [7]. **PE Supply and Demand Balance Sheet** - **Capacity**: The effective capacity will gradually increase in 2025, with a total of 208 tons of new capacity put into operation in the first quarter. In April, Shandong New Era's 70 - ton capacity was commissioned, and ExxonMobil's 50 - ton LLDPE2 line is planned to start operation at the end of the month [8][9][10]. - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly output and apparent consumption will fluctuate throughout the year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production and apparent consumption shows an upward trend, but the growth rate varies in different months [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of petrochemical plants, enterprises, and the futures market shows a certain degree of fluctuation, with both increases and decreases [9]. **PP Supply and Demand Balance Sheet** - **Capacity**: New capacity will be gradually put into operation in 2025, such as Inner Mongolia Baofeng's 50 - ton capacity in January and its third - line new capacity in March. In April, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of multiple sets of devices such as Exxon, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, and Yulong Petrochemical [49]. - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly output and apparent consumption will fluctuate throughout the year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production and apparent consumption shows an upward trend [49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of petrochemical plants, enterprises, and traders shows a certain degree of fluctuation, with both increases and decreases [49]. **PE Weekly Fundamental Data** - **Price**: The prices of PE futures and spot have declined, with the main contract L2509's price center moving down [11]. - **Supply**: The supply is abundant, with the weekly output increasing for four consecutive weeks, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 15th week is 15.9%. The operating rate of downstream industries has declined [10][11]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profits of oil - based and coal - based processing have decreased, while the cost has shown a certain degree of change [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of enterprises, society, and traders has shown a slight increase, and the trading volume has increased significantly [11]. **PP Weekly Fundamental Data** - **Price**: The prices of PP futures and spot have declined, with the main contract PP2509's price center moving down [51]. - **Supply**: The supply is relatively abundant, but the weekly output has decreased slightly, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 16th week is 16.3%. The average capacity utilization rate is expected to decline to around 76.5% next week [51][58]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profits of different production methods have shown different degrees of change, with the profit of PDH production showing a slight improvement [51]. - **Inventory**: The total commercial inventory, enterprise inventory, and trader inventory have all decreased, while the trading volume has increased significantly [51].

铁矿石周报： 基本面中性，等待新的爆发点 分析师：李海蓉 黑色研究团队 李海蓉 Z0015849 陈为昌 Z0019850 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货研究院 时间：2025.4.21 需求端：铁水产量转降，上方空间较为有限。在钢厂利润支撑下，铁水有望维持高位，对 炉料需求仍有助力， 库存端：45港口库存大幅下降，钢厂库存小幅下降，整体按需采购为主 行情展望：整体来看，铁矿石基本面矛盾不明显。成材端需求季节性好转，但市场对于下 游需求对于高铁水产量的承接能力存在担忧。矿价震荡运行，等待矛盾积累。 策略：5-9正套获利离场，短线单边暂且观望，长线逢高布空 2 期货价格震荡偏弱 本周铁矿石市场观点摘要 供应端：外矿发运小幅回升，到货增至高位，后期预计持续下降。 价 来源:同花顺,中辉期货有限公司 价 来源:同花顺,中辉期货有限公司 3 现货价格 来源:中辉期货有限公司 来源:中辉期货有限公司 4 主力基差微扩 交割品主力合约基差稳中微扩，进口矿最便宜交割品基差77元/吨左右。 5 品种价差 来源:中辉期货有限公司 来源:中辉期货有限公司 来源:同花顺,中辉期货有限公司 价差 来源:中辉期货有限公司 6 需求 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 低位运行 | 螺纹需求增加明显，已接近去年同期。产量小幅回落，库存去化较好，供 | | | | 需层面有所改善。但铁水产量维持高位，后期钢材整体供需或存在趋于宽 | | | | 松的压力。市场对政策仍有期待，短期市场低位震荡运行。【3050，3150】 | | 热卷 | 低位运行 | 热卷供需均小幅增加，数据上看暂时无明显矛盾。但贸易摩擦升级以及越 | | | | 南、韩国反倾销政策或对出口预期产生影响。中期基本面仍有趋于宽松的 | | | | 倾向，短期市场低位震荡运行，等待驱动指引。【3150，3250】 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 发到货双增，铁水产量止增转降，但钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 随着外矿发运逐渐恢复放量，铁矿基本面边际转弱。下游需求仍在改善， | | | | 关注钢厂节前补库及宏观政策出台情况。【670,750】 | | | | 铁水日产量仍然维持在 240 万吨左右的高位，钢厂生产积极性较高，对原 | | 焦炭 | 弱势运行 | 料需求有保障。焦炭周产量持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term decline. The impact of Sino - US trade tariff increases is limited, South American soybean production is set, US soybean planting is about to start, domestic soybean stocks are accumulating, and with sufficient rainfall for US soybeans in the next 15 days, there is a lack of fundamental bullish support [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline. Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, new - season rapeseeds will be harvested in May, the substitution of rapeseed meal has decreased, and it is under pressure to fall due to inventory and supply [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound and consolidation. International palm oil supply and demand both increased in April, with marginal supply improvement. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and imports. The short - term rebound is due to good export data from Malaysia, but long - term trends need to consider US biodiesel policies, crude oil prices, and Malaysian palm oil exports [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Pressured and volatile. US macro data slightly benefits the commodity market, some countries show a tendency to purchase under tariff pressure, domestic cotton inventory is high and being reduced, new cotton is being sown, and the downstream demand is cautious, with the price expected to remain weak after a rebound [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Weak operation. The market is in the traditional off - season, fresh fruits are on the market, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand has not improved significantly, with prices expected to fluctuate and consolidate [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Rebound under pressure. The impact of the trade war has faded, the market cost - driven sentiment has slowed, supply is excessive, the consumption end lacks growth momentum, and there is a risk of a callback after the pre - holiday stocking market contracts [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3396.57 yuan/ton, up 45.71 yuan or 1.36% [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of April 11, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 400.82 million tons, up 100.07 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 362.24 million tons, up 71.81 million tons week - on - week, and bean粕 inventory was 29.05 million tons, down 28.86 million tons week - on - week [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2597 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, up 9.47 yuan or 0.37% [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of April 11, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 34.8 million tons, up 5.5 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 2.07 million tons, down 1.06 million tons week - on - week [7]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8132 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan or 0.88% from the previous day. The national average price was 9080 yuan/ton, down 133 yuan or 1.44% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: As of a certain period, the weekly commercial inventory was 37.11 million tons, down 0.23 million tons from the previous period [8]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12885 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. The domestic spot average price was 14203 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [10]. - **Planting and Inventory Data**: As of April 13, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 5%. In China, the Xinjiang cotton sowing progress reached 62.3%. The cotton commercial inventory was 420.02 million tons, down 11 million tons from the previous period [11][12]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.32% from the previous day. The prices in different regions remained stable [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 10521 tons, down 134 tons from the previous period [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 14465 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.21% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 14930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.13% [16]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: The national sample enterprises' monthly live pig inventory was 3689.1 million tons, up 13.17 million tons month - on - month; the monthly live pig出栏量 was 1087.03 million tons, up 156.55 million tons month - on - month [16].