1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][5][6] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1][7][9] - L: Cautiously bullish [1][10][12] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1][14][15] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1][17][18] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1][20][21] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1][23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1][26][27] - Glass: Cautiously bullish [2][30][31] - Soda ash: Cautiously bullish [2][32][33] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2][35][36] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2][37] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Strong reality and weak expectation, focus on OPEC's production increase and US production changes. Oil prices are in the second half of the peak season, with increasing supply - surplus pressure and a downward trend [1][5][6] - LPG: Narrow - range oil price fluctuations, recovering downstream chemical demand, and a short - term rebound in liquefied gas [7][8][9] - L: Driven by policy expectations, with short - term volatility biased upwards following policy expectations and long - term high production limiting the rebound space [10][11][12] - PP: Driven by policy expectations, following market sentiment for a rebound, with short - term volatility biased upwards and long - term third - quarter production pressure limiting the upside [14][15] - PVC: The "anti - involution" trading continues, with short - term sentiment and cost supporting the bottom, but the weak fundamental pattern limits the rebound space [17][18] - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with macro - policy positives, focus on the opportunity to go long on dips [20][21] - PTA/PR: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase with new device production, and demand is weakly bottoming out. Short - term "anti - involution" policies bring supply - side positives [23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Domestic and foreign device changes are small, demand is in the off - season, and there is support from a strong basis and low inventory. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [26][27] - Glass: Fundamental improvement, with short - term macro - industrial policy expectations providing support, and the price center of the futures market moving upwards [30][31] - Soda ash: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the futures price is pulled up, but there is a large supply - surplus pressure and the market follows commodity sentiment [32][33] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, demand is improving, and the futures price is supported by macro - policy expectations and downstream alumina price trends [35][36] - Methanol: Supply - demand relationship has improved, with cost support and a bullish trend in the short term [2][37] - Urea: Production is expected to increase, demand is improving, and there are short - term macro - policy positives and export speculation possibilities [2] - Asphalt: Cost - side oil prices are weakly fluctuating, with sufficient raw material supply and bearish fundamentals [2] - Propylene: Considering the "anti - involution" trading, the sentiment is optimistic, and it is cautiously bullish on a single - side basis [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.20%, Brent up 0.78%, and SC up 0.08% [4] - **Basic Logic**: Weak expectation and strong reality, with OPEC's production increase pressure gradually releasing. Supply - side focuses on US production changes. EU sanctions on Russia and Norwegian production decline. Chinese imports increase, and IEA has supply - demand forecasts. US inventory data shows changes [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is in surplus, and the price range is expected to be 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short - term, it is in narrow - range fluctuations. Light - position short positions and buying call options are recommended [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On July 24, the PG main contract closed at 3994 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [7] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side oil prices are in a narrow - range tug - of - war, and the fundamentals of LPG have improved. Downstream chemical demand is recovering, and the basis is at a high level [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the oil price center is expected to move down, and LPG prices have room for compression. In the short - term, it is bullish. Close previous short positions and go long with a light position [9] L - **Market Review**: Spot prices and futures prices have small fluctuations, with inventory accumulation and a decrease in the main contract's position [11] - **Basic Logic**: Coal - based proportion is 20%, and old - capacity proportion is 14%. Short - term volatility is biased upwards following policy expectations, and long - term high production limits the rebound space [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, and industries can sell for hedging. Go long on dips in the short - term [12][13] PP - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise, and the main contract's position increases slightly. Spot prices have small fluctuations [14] - **Basic Logic**: Coal - based proportion is 19%, and old - capacity proportion is 8%. Short - term volatility is biased upwards, and exports are expected to maintain high growth. Long - term third - quarter production pressure limits the upside [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close long positions, and go long on dips in the short - term [15][16] PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise, and the main contract's position decreases. Spot prices increase slightly [17] - **Basic Logic**: Old - capacity proportion is 11%. "Anti - deflation" trading continues, with weak spot price increases and a weak basis. Social inventory has increased for 5 weeks [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close long positions due to high short - term market volatility [18] PX - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [20] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, and demand - side changes are also limited. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are macro - policy positives [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions at low levels and look for opportunities to go long on dips. The price range is [6940 - 7050] [21][22] PTA/PR - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China increased, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [23] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, and demand is weakly bottoming out. Short - term "anti - involution" policies bring supply - side positives [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [4830 - 4920] [24][25] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China decreased slightly, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [26] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign device changes are small, demand is in the off - season, and there is support from a strong basis and low inventory [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [4480 - 4600] [27][28] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market quotes continue to rise, the futures market rises sharply, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [30] - **Basic Logic**: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations and coal - related product price increases, the fundamentals improve, and the price center of the futures market moves upwards [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close long positions after a large increase, and go long based on the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages. The price range is [1310 - 1360] [31] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot quotes increase, the futures market rises, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increases [32] - **Basic Logic**: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the futures price is pulled up, but there is a large supply - surplus pressure and the market follows commodity sentiment [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price center moves upwards, and the moving averages tend to converge. The price range is [1410 - 1460] [32][33] Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Flake - caustic spot quotes increase, the futures market rises, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is approaching saturation, demand is improving, and the futures price is supported by macro - policy expectations and downstream alumina price trends [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price center moves upwards, and the upward slope slows down. The price range is [2640 - 2710] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China decreased, and the futures price of the 09 contract decreased. The basis and month - spread changed [37] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand relationship has improved, with cost support and a bullish trend in the short term [2][37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [2470 - 2520] [2] Urea - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text - **Basic Logic**: Production is expected to increase, demand is improving, and there are short - term macro - policy positives and export speculation possibilities [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips with a light position. The price range is [1770 - 1810] [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side oil prices are weakly fluctuating, with sufficient raw material supply and bearish fundamentals [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short with a light position. The price range is [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text - **Basic Logic**: Considering the "anti - involution" trading, the sentiment is optimistic, and it is cautiously bullish on a single - side basis [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [6550 - 6800] [3]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段，油厂催提。饲 | | | | 料企业库存开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计有所减缓。美国总统特朗 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 普宣布与印度尼西亚达成农业贸易协议，该国承诺将采购 45 亿美元的美国农产品。 | | | | 印尼是美国大豆的第五大进口国，该消息提振美豆价格上涨。昨日国内豆粕价格高 | | | | 位快速回落。在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑多空双重作用下，豆粕以大区 | | | | 间行情对待。关注 8 月中美贸易新进展。主力【3000，3050】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国内市场， | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧作加籽的 | | 菜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Short - term fluctuations possible, stay on the sidelines [3] - Iron ore: Short - term long positions to take profit, mid - term short positions to be laid out [9] - Coke: High - level risks rising, stay on the sidelines [10] - Coking coal: High - level risks rising, stay on the sidelines [14] - Ferroalloys: More restarts in production areas, stay on the sidelines [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The news of coal production restrictions drives the overall upward movement of the black commodity sector, strengthening the bullish market sentiment [1][4] - For steel products, the supply - demand situation of rebar is relatively balanced, while the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are relatively stable with limited contradictions [1][4] - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, with a shift from long to short sentiment [1][8] - The spot price of coke has started the third round of increases, and the fourth is imminent. The market is highly bullish [1][12] - The domestic coking coal production has rebounded, but the production restriction policy brings uncertainty. The futures market sentiment is overly bullish [1][16] - For ferroalloys, the production and operating rates of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are rising, but the ferrosilicon has high delivery inventory pressure [1][20] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Rebar** - **Price range**: [3280, 3330] [1] - **Reasons**: The production and apparent demand have both rebounded month - on - month, and the total inventory has slightly decreased. The molten iron production has slightly declined but remains at a high level. Driven by policy expectations, the market sentiment is strong, but there may be short - term fluctuations after a rapid rise [1][4][5] - **Hot - rolled coils** - **Price range**: [3440, 3500] [1] - **Reasons**: The production and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly increased. The market trades around factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production restriction policies. The sharp rise in raw material prices has also pushed up steel prices, but there may be short - term fluctuations after a rapid rise [1][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price range**: [780, 820] [1] - **Reasons**: The molten iron production has decreased, and the supply side has seen an increase in both arrivals and shipments, with more shipments expected in the future. Port inventories are rising. The previous rapid price increase may lead to a subsequent correction, so pay attention to policy expectations [1][8] - **Operation suggestion**: Short - term long positions to take profit, mid - term short positions to be laid out [9] 3.3 Coke - **Price range**: [1700, 1750] [1] - **Reasons**: The spot price has started the third round of increases, and the fourth is imminent. The news of coal production restrictions has boosted market expectations, and steel mills' restocking has made the market more bullish. The current market atmosphere is highly excited [1][12] - **Operation suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [13] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price range**: [1200, 1259] [1] - **Reasons**: The news of coal production restrictions has strengthened the bullish market sentiment, and the futures price has risen sharply recently. The domestic coking coal production has rebounded and is close to last year's level. Some mines have restarted production in July, but the production restriction policy brings uncertainty. The spot trading has improved, the market sentiment has generally improved, and inventory is shifting from upstream to downstream. However, the futures market sentiment is overly excited [1][16] - **Operation suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [17] 3.5 Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese** - **Price range**: [5840, 6050] [1] - **Reasons**: The production and operating rates have continued to rise this week. The northern production areas have stable operations, and there are more restarts in the southern production areas. The short - term demand for ferromanganese is rigidly supported by the increase in rebar production. The overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and the short - term price fluctuates with market sentiment [1][20][21] - **Ferrosilicon** - **Price range**: [5635, 5875] [1] - **Reasons**: The production and operating rates have continued to rise, but there are both maintenance and restarts in the main production areas. The factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure. It may face short - term correction pressure, and the price will remain under pressure without obvious improvement in fundamentals [1][20][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High - level oscillation, long - term strategic allocation [1] - Silver: Bullish, with support shifted up [1] - Copper: Bullish [1] - Zinc: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views - The Fed's possible over - expected interest rate cut, unclear Trump's tariff policy and regional conflicts, along with continued central bank gold purchases, support the long - term bullish trend of gold, while short - term breakthrough of the previous high requires concentrated outbreak of risk factors [3] - For copper, due to the tense global copper mine situation and its status as an important strategic resource, there is long - term confidence in its price increase [7] - Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand is weak in the long term, but short - term factors support a cautious bullish view [1][9] - Aluminum prices face pressure to rebound due to factors such as increased inventory and weakening demand in the off - season [11] - Nickel prices have limited room for rebound due to factors like high inventory and weak demand in the off - season [13] - For lithium carbonate, although the short - term fundamentals have not improved significantly, the market has priced in the easing of supply - demand contradictions in advance, and there are differences between long and short positions [15] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: With increased expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and uncertain prospects of the August 1st negotiation deadline, gold and silver are at high levels [2] - **Basic Logic**: US data is weak, there are developments in US - EU tariffs, Powell is under pressure, and the Fed's possible over - expected interest rate cut, along with other factors, support the long - term bullish trend of gold [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 770 - 775, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged; silver has strong support at 9250, and a bullish approach is recommended [4] Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper price lost the 80,000 mark after briefly reaching it, with intense competition between bulls and bears at this key psychological level [6] - **Industrial Logic**: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists, electrolytic copper production is increasing, domestic social inventory is de - stocking against the season, downstream开工率 is rising, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors offsets the insufficient demand in real estate construction [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous long copper positions, and some can take profits. In the long - term, there is confidence in the rise of copper prices. The Shanghai copper price is expected to be in the range of [79000, 81000], and the London copper price in the range of [9700, 10000] US dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc price is oscillating at a high level, testing the pressure of the upper - level resistance [8] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, domestic new smelting capacity is being released, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and although the demand for galvanizing is boosted, the off - season and high prices make downstream enterprises hesitant [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous long zinc positions cautiously, not to chase the rise blindly. New speculators should wait for a pull - back to enter. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to be in the range of [22800, 23200], and the London zinc price in the range of [2750, 2950] US dollars per ton [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices face pressure to rebound, and alumina rebounds and then falls [10] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity is increasing, inventory is rising, and demand is weakening in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in overseas bauxite supply, and the short - term supply of spot alumina is relatively tight, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to mainly wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventory, and the main operating range is [20300 - 21000]. Alumina is expected to face pressure during the rebound [11] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have limited rebound, and stainless steel prices face pressure during the rebound [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is uncertainty in the overseas environment, the price of nickel ore may decline, and domestic nickel supply and demand are weak, with inventory accumulating. For stainless steel, the production reduction is weakening, and inventory pressure is emerging again in the off - season [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to mainly wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range of nickel is [122000 - 125000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduces positions and declines by more than 4% [14] - **Industrial Logic**: In the spot market, lithium salt factories are willing to sell, and basis weakens. Although the short - term fundamentals have not improved significantly, the market has priced in the easing of supply - demand contradictions in advance, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to mainly wait and see in the short - term, with the price range of [69000 - 73400] [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bullish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bullish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: There is a situation of strong reality and weak expectation. Pay attention to OPEC's production increase and changes in US production capacity. As OPEC+ gradually expands production, the pressure of oversupply in oil prices will gradually rise, and there is a large downward pressure on oil prices [1][4]. - LPG: The cost - end oil price is weak, downstream demand is fair, the basis is at a high level, and the downward support is gradually increasing [1]. - L: The proportion of coal - based plastics is 20%. It is less affected by anti - involution. Spot replenishment willingness is insufficient, and social inventory continues to accumulate. It mainly rebounds following market sentiment in the short term [1]. - PP: Demand follow - up is insufficient, and commercial total inventory accumulates. It rebounds following market sentiment. The export is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the future, but the production pressure in the third quarter is relatively high, which limits the upside space [1]. - PVC: The anti - involution trading continues. Short - term sentiment and cost support the bottom. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the supply - demand pattern in July tends to accumulate inventory [1]. - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. PX inventory is decreasing but still at a relatively high level. PXN is not low, and there are recent macro - positive factors under the anti - involution policy [1]. - PTA/PR: There are relatively few changes in the device recently. The pressure on the supply side is expected to increase with the commissioning of new devices. The demand side is weakly bottoming out. It is affected by the anti - involution policy [1]. - Ethylene glycol: There are not many changes in domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices. Arrival and imports are lower than the same period. Demand is in the traditional off - season, and orders need further improvement. The basis is strong, and low inventory supports the price [1]. - Glass: The fundamentals have improved. The production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, and the upstream inventory continues to decline. It is supported by anti - involution policies and coal - based production line technological transformation expectations [2]. - Soda ash: There are both device overhauls and restarts recently. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. It follows the improvement of commodity sentiment in the short term [2]. - Caustic soda: The supply is approaching saturation with the increase in production capacity utilization and the expectation of new production capacity. The demand from the main downstream alumina has recovered, but non - aluminum demand is still weak [2]. - Methanol: Domestic methanol device overhauls have led to a decline in the comprehensive operating load, but overseas devices have recovered. Demand is relatively good, and social inventory is accumulating but at a relatively low level [2]. - Urea: The resumption of overhauled devices is expected to increase daily production. Industrial demand is improving, and fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. There are short - term macro - positive policies [2]. - Asphalt: The cost - end oil price is oscillating weakly, and the raw material supply is sufficient. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. The valuation is relatively high [2]. - Propylene: The spot market is weak. The futures are expected to be in a short - term sideways shock. Considering the anti - involution trading, it is cautiously bullish on the long side [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline. WTI decreased by 0.09%, Brent decreased by 1.11%, and SC decreased by 0.53% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil market shows a situation of weak expectation and strong reality. It is in the consumption peak season with some support below, but the pressure from OPEC's production increase is gradually released. The EU has introduced new sanctions on Russian oil, and Norway's oil production has decreased. China's oil imports have increased, and IEA's forecast for global oil demand growth has decreased. US commercial crude inventory has decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories have increased [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, due to tariff wars, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+'s production expansion, oil supply will be in surplus, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short term, the oil price is oscillating weakly. The strategy is to lightly short and buy call options for protection. SC focuses on [495 - 510] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 23, the PG main contract closed at 3972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% compared to the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4630, 4443, and 4590 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Basic Logic**: With the increase in OPEC+ production, the cost - end oil price is under pressure. The fundamentals of LPG are mixed. The basis is at a high level, and there is some support below. The PDH device profit has increased, and the supply has decreased slightly while the demand has shown different trends. Inventory in refineries and ports has increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, the upstream crude oil supply is in excess, and the LPG price still has room for compression. In the short term, the downward support is increasing, and it is expected to rebound. The strategy is to stop the loss of previous short positions. PG focuses on [3950 - 4050] [8]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of L contracts have decreased, and the main contract's trading volume has decreased. The spot price in North China has increased slightly, and the basis has strengthened [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The proportion of coal - based plastics is 20%. It is less affected by anti - involution. Spot replenishment willingness is insufficient, and social inventory continues to accumulate. The device restart is increasing, and the production is expected to increase this week. The anti - involution impact is limited, and the follow - up raw material replenishment demand after the off - season of agricultural films needs attention [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upward driving force on the fundamentals is insufficient. Part of the long positions can be stopped for profit. L focuses on [7250 - 7450] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of PP contracts have increased, and the main contract's trading volume has decreased. The spot price in East China has increased slightly, and the basis has weakened [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand follow - up is insufficient, and commercial total inventory accumulates. It rebounds following market sentiment. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and the planned unplanned overhauls of existing devices have increased, reducing the supply pressure. The export from January to June has increased by 21% year - on - year, and the export profit is positive. The production pressure in the third quarter is relatively high, which limits the upside space [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Part of the long positions can be stopped for profit. PP focuses on [7100 - 7250] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The prices of PVC contracts have decreased, and the main contract's trading volume has decreased slightly. The spot price in Changzhou has decreased slightly, and the basis has strengthened [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The anti - involution trading continues. Short - term sentiment and cost support the bottom. The August Formosa Plastics quotation has decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the export in June has significantly decreased. The social inventory has accumulated for 4 consecutive weeks, and new devices are being commissioned. The supply - demand pattern in July tends to accumulate inventory. Pay attention to the progress of India's anti - dumping tax [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Part of the long positions can be stopped for profit. V focuses on [5100 - 5400] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: The prices of PX contracts have increased. The spot price in East China has remained unchanged, and the basis has weakened [19]. - **Basic Logic**: There are not many changes in domestic and foreign devices. The processing difference is positive, and the production is stable. The demand from the downstream PTA has some changes. The supply and demand are in a tight - balance state, and the inventory is decreasing but still at a relatively high level. Under the anti - involution policy, there are recent macro - positive factors [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focuses on [6840, 6950] [21]. PTA/PR - **Market Review**: The prices of PTA contracts have increased. The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis has strengthened [22]. - **Basic Logic**: There are relatively few changes in the device recently. The pressure on the supply side is expected to increase with the commissioning of new devices. The demand side is weakly bottoming out. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly differentiated. It is affected by the anti - involution policy, and the supply side has some positive support. Pay attention to the oil price [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focuses on [4750, 4820] [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The prices of ethylene glycol contracts have increased. The spot price in East China has decreased slightly, and the basis has weakened [25]. - **Basic Logic**: There are not many changes in domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices. Arrival and imports are lower than the same period. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and orders need further improvement. The basis is strong, and low inventory supports the price. There are recent anti - involution macro - positive factors. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focuses on [4430, 4500] [27]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market prices have generally increased, the futures price has corrected, the basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The market is affected by the anti - involution policy expectation. The fundamentals of glass have improved, with increased production and decreased inventory. The cost is expected to increase due to the strength of coal - related products. The short - term price is boosted by macro - policies, and the inventory reduction enhances market confidence [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [1200, 1260] [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot prices of heavy soda ash are differentiated, the futures price has corrected, the basis has narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts has increased [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Affected by the anti - involution policy expectation, the glass and coal markets are stronger, which boosts the industry sentiment. The alkali plant inventory has accumulated again, reaching a new historical high. There are both device overhauls and restarts, and the supply is increasing. The downstream support is general [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is not clearly stated in the given text, but it is in the context of being cautiously bullish following the market sentiment. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of flake caustic soda has increased, the futures price has corrected, the basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is approaching saturation with the increase in production capacity utilization and the expectation of new production capacity. The demand from the main downstream alumina has recovered, but non - aluminum demand is still weak. The export scale has decreased in May [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is not clearly stated in the given text, but it is related to the cautious bullish view. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price of methanol in East China decreased, and the main contract price decreased. The basis in East China and ports has strengthened, and the month - spread has decreased [36]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol device overhauls have led to a decline in the comprehensive operating load, but overseas devices have recovered. The demand is relatively good, and the social inventory is accumulating but at a relatively low level. The coking coal has been oscillating strongly recently, and methanol is oscillating strongly in the range [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The strategy is to try to go long on dips. MA focuses on [2410 - 2490] [2]. Urea - **Market Review**: It is not clearly presented in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The overhauled urea devices are resuming production, and the daily output is expected to return to 200,000 tons. Industrial demand is improving, and agricultural fertilizer demand is weakening month - on - month, but fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. The coal price is stable, and the cost support remains. The factory inventory is decreasing, and exports are progressing smoothly [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly try to go long. UR focuses on [1760 - 1810] [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: It is not clearly presented in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is oscillating weakly, and the raw material supply is sufficient. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. The current cracking spread is at a high level, and the valuation is relatively high [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly try to go short. BU focuses on [3530 - 3630] [2]. Propylene - **Market Review**: The spot price in Shandong has decreased, and the futures volatility has decreased after the listing day. It is expected to be in a short - term sideways shock [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot market is weak. Considering the anti - involution trading, the market sentiment is optimistic, and it is cautiously bullish on the long side. For arbitrage, pay attention to shorting the 1 - 2 month - spread or shorting the PP processing fee [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Propylene focuses on [6500 - 6700] [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Short - term fluctuations possible, stay on the sidelines [3] - Iron Ore: Take partial profit on previous long positions and wait for new opportunities [6] - Coke: With high - level risks rising, stay on the sidelines [9] - Coking Coal: Due to over - excited sentiment, stay on the sidelines [13] - Ferroalloys: Cautiously bullish as market sentiment dominates [17] Core Views - Steel: For rebar, coal production restrictions drive the black sector up, but production and demand decline, and inventory rises. For hot - rolled coils, the fundamentals are stable. Rapid rallies may lead to short - term fluctuations [4][5]. - Iron Ore: Iron - making water production increases, supply and arrivals both grow. Steel mills' profits are good, but rapid rises offer profit - taking opportunities [7]. - Coke: Spot prices start the second round of increases, and market sentiment is over - excited [11]. - Coking Coal: Production restrictions boost sentiment, but domestic production is rising, and futures sentiment is over - excited [15]. - Ferroalloys: For manganese silicon, supply increases while demand decreases, and cost is supported. For ferrosilicon, there is supply - demand imbalance and high delivery inventory [19]. Summary by Variety Steel Rebar - **Market Situation**: Coal production restrictions strengthen the bullish atmosphere. Production and apparent demand decline, and inventory rises slightly. Iron - making water production increases, driving up furnace material demand expectations [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to strong policy - driven sentiment and rapid rallies, it's advisable to stay on the sidelines. Price range: [3240, 3290] [1]. Hot - rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: Production, demand, and inventory change little, with limited fundamental contradictions. Market trades around policies, and rising raw materials push up steel prices [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After rapid rallies, short - term fluctuations are possible. Stay on the sidelines. Price range: [3400, 3450] [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Iron - making water production increases significantly, supply and arrivals both grow, and there will be more arrivals. Ports destock, and steel mills restock. Steel mills' profits are good, driving up iron ore prices [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Take partial profit on previous long positions and wait for new opportunities. Price range: [790, 830] [1]. Coke - **Market Situation**: Spot prices start the second - round increase, and there are expectations for further increases. Coal production restrictions boost sentiment, and steel mills' restocking makes the market more positive, but the atmosphere is over - excited [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines. Price range: [1660, 1750] [1]. Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: Production restrictions strengthen bullish sentiment, and the price rallies. Domestic production is rising, and some mines are resuming production. Inventory transfers from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory is stable. Spot trading improves, but futures sentiment is over - excited [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines. Price range: [1100, 1200] [1]. Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - **Market Situation**: Supply increases while demand decreases. High - level iron - making water production doesn't offset the decline in rebar production, which drags down demand. Rising raw material prices support costs [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term trading is sentiment - driven. In the medium - term, the fundamentals will loosen, and prices may decline. Price range: [5835, 6040] [1]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Situation**: Supply increases while demand decreases. Factory inventory pressure eases, but delivery inventory is high, with obvious near - end warrant pressure. Pay attention to inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term high sentiment may lead to corrections. In the medium - term, the fundamentals will loosen, and prices will decline. Price range: [5715, 5950] [1].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段，油厂催提。饲 | | | | 料企业库存开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计有所减缓。美国总统特朗 | | | | 普宣布与印度尼西亚达成农业贸易协议，该国承诺将采购 45 亿美元的美国农产品。 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 印尼是美国大豆的第五大进口国，该消息提振美豆价格上涨。昨日国内豆粕价格延 | | | | 续收涨行情。前高附近及以上继续追多需注意做好仓位及风控管理。短期走势，在 | | | | 基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑多空双重作用下，豆粕以大区间行情对待。主 | | | | 力【3030，3120】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国内市场， | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 1 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bullish [1] - Zinc: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, trade negotiations, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to different trends in various metals [1][3] - Gold and silver are likely to rise due to trade uncertainties and the potential for Fed rate cuts [1][2][3] - Copper is expected to perform well in the long - term due to global copper mine shortages and strategic importance [1][6][7] - Zinc supply is abundant, limiting its upside potential in the short - term, with a long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease outlook [1][8][9] - Aluminum and nickel prices may experience short - term rebounds, but are affected by factors such as inventory and seasonal demand [1][10][11][12][13] - Lithium carbonate is expected to rise due to supply - side disruptions [1][14][15] Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: The US trade negotiations with Brazil and the EU are not going smoothly, and the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st has increased the safe - haven sentiment for gold and silver [2] - **基本逻辑**: Trump pressures the Fed to cut interest rates, the US has reached trade agreements with some countries, and there are uncertainties in the global economic and political situation. The Fed rate cuts may exceed expectations, and central banks continue to buy gold, supporting the long - term upward trend of gold [3] - **策略推荐**: Gold has strong support around 770 - 775, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has strong support at 9250, and a bullish approach is recommended [4] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper has rebounded strongly and is consolidating around the 80,000 - yuan mark [6] - **产业逻辑**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, electrolytic copper production has increased, domestic social inventory has decreased seasonally, downstream开工率 has rebounded, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors has maintained resilience [6] - **策略推荐**: With Trump's pressure on the Fed and positive short - term macro - sentiment, it is recommended to hold existing copper long positions. In the long - term, copper is still expected to rise. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [79000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc is oscillating at a high level, testing the pressure of the upper resistance [8] - **产业逻辑**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant, new smelting capacity is being released, and the processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising. The demand side is affected by the high - temperature season and the consumption off - season, and downstream enterprises are hesitant to buy at high prices [8] - **策略推荐**: Due to cost support, low inventory, and macro - sentiment stimulation, zinc has rebounded. It is recommended to hold existing long positions cautiously, not to chase the rise blindly. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22800, 23200], and for London zinc is [2750, 2950] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, and alumina also shows a rebound trend [10] - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity has increased, the cost has risen, the inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream processing industry's开工率 has decreased in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea's bauxite supply, and the supply of spot alumina is relatively tight in the short - term [11] - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to wait and see with Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20300 - 21200], and alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices continue to rebound, and stainless steel also shows a rebound trend [12] - **产业逻辑**: For nickel, there are uncertainties in the overseas environment, the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline, and the domestic nickel supply - demand situation has improved slightly. For stainless steel, the production reduction is weakening, and the inventory pressure is emerging again in the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to wait and see with nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [122000 - 125000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 has increased in position and reached a new high [14] - **产业逻辑**: In the spot market, lithium salt producers are more willing to sell, and the basis has weakened. The total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the demand growth in the new energy vehicle market has slowed down. However, there are many supply - side disruptions, and the futures market has priced in the improvement of the supply - demand situation in advance [15] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a range of [71800 - 74000] [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products**: Cautiously bullish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term long - position profit - taking, mid - term short - position layout [1][6][7][8] - **Coke**: Stay on the sidelines [1][9][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Stay on the sidelines [1][13][15][16] - **Ferroalloys**: Cautiously bullish [1][17][19][20] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: The news of coal production restrictions drives the overall upward movement of the black market, strengthening the bullish sentiment. For rebar, production and apparent demand decline month - on - month, with a slight increase in total inventory, showing off - season characteristics. The significant increase in hot metal production boosts the expected demand for furnace materials. For hot - rolled coils, production, apparent demand, and inventory change little, with a relatively stable fundamental situation and limited contradictions [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, hot metal production increases significantly, with both supply - side shipments and arrivals rising, and there will be more shipments later. Ports are destocking while steel mills are restocking. Recently, steel mills have good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the locked - in profits on the futures market drive the strong performance of iron ore. However, as the recent rise is rapid, there are profit - taking opportunities, so previous long positions should be closed, and attention should be paid to the subsequent supply - side reform policies [1][7]. - **Coke**: The second round of spot price increases has started, and there are still expectations for further increases. The news of coal production restrictions boosts market sentiment. After the rapid price increase, steel mills' restocking makes the market more positive. However, the current market atmosphere seems overly exuberant, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1][11]. - **Coking Coal**: The news of coal production restrictions strengthens the bullish sentiment in the market, and the futures price has risen significantly recently. In terms of supply and demand, domestic coking coal production has rebounded recently, approaching last year's level. Some shut - down coal mines have resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase later. The inventory has shifted from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory remains stable. Spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. However, the futures market sentiment is overly exuberant, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply increases while the demand decreases. Although the hot metal production is at a high level, the month - on - month decline in rebar production drags down the demand for ferromanganese, but the slight increase in raw material prices strongly supports the cost. For ferrosilicon, the supply increases while the demand decreases. The factory inventory pressure has been relieved, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3367 with a rise of 90; rebar 05 is at 3386 with a rise of 93; rebar 10 is at 3307 with a rise of 83. Hot - rolled coil 01 is at 3492 with a rise of 82; hot - rolled coil 05 is at 3490 with a rise of 77; hot - rolled coil 10 is at 3477 with a rise of 83. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions also show certain changes [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Rebar is expected to continue its strong performance with limited short - term decline due to policy expectations and the increase in hot metal production. Hot - rolled coils may maintain a strong short - term trend due to factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production restrictions, as well as the sharp rise in raw material prices [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore 01 is at 794 with a rise of 17; iron ore 05 is at 771 with a rise of 16; iron ore 09 is at 823 with a rise of 14. The prices of various iron ore powders also change accordingly, and there are also fluctuations in spreads, basis, freight rates, and spot indices [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions should take profits, and mid - term short positions can be considered [1][8]. Coke - **Price and Data Information**: The 1 - month contract of coke is at 1752.0 with a rise of 98.0; the 5 - month contract is at 1797.5 with a rise of 98.5; the 9 - month contract is at 1697.5 with a rise of 94.5. There are also changes in basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as capacity utilization, production, and inventory [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines due to the over - exuberant market atmosphere [1][12]. Coking Coal - **Price and Data Information**: The 1 - month contract of coking coal is at 1137.0 with a rise of 81.0; the 5 - month contract is at 1154.0 with a rise of 79.5; the 9 - month contract is at 1048.5 with a rise of 42.5. There are changes in basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as the start - up rate of coal washing plants, production, and inventory [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines because of the overly exuberant futures market sentiment [1][16]. Ferroalloys - **Price Information**: Manganese silicon 01 is at 6084 with a rise of 120; manganese silicon 05 is at 6130 with a rise of 142; manganese silicon 09 is at 6012 with a rise of 98. Silicon iron 01 is at 5952 with a rise of 206; silicon iron 05 is at 6012 with a rise of 220; silicon iron 09 is at 5874 with a rise of 206. There are also changes in spot prices, spreads, and weekly data such as enterprise start - up rates and production [18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For ferromanganese, short - term trading is mainly driven by sentiment, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. In the medium term, the price may face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state. For ferrosilicon, the short - term high market sentiment may lead to a correction, and in the medium term, the price will still face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state [1][20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a wide range. Short - term rebound should be treated with caution. In the short - term, under the dual influence of weak fundamentals and Sino - US trade tariff cost support, it will show a wide - range market. The main trading range is [3050, 3120] [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also expected to trade in a wide range. Short - term trend is bullish, but chasing long positions requires careful position and risk control management. Pay attention to the improvement of China - Canada relations and China - Australia progress. The main trading range is [2670, 2800] [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Be cautious when chasing long positions. Although there are some bullish factors, considering the supply season in Southeast Asia and the large inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil, it is difficult to force a short - squeeze. The main trading range is [8850, 9150] [1]. - **Cotton**: Be cautious about shorting. Although the short - term bullish sentiment of funds is strong, the conditions for a short - squeeze are not complete. Be vigilant against the negative feedback from weakening downstream demand. The main trading range is [14100, 14350] [1]. - **Red Dates**: Be cautious about shorting. The expected production reduction is gradually being disproven, and the high inventory makes it difficult for the price to rise. However, due to the relatively low price level, the downside space is limited [1]. - **Hogs**: Be cautiously bullish. The short - term price is supported by slow - down in slaughter rhythm and farmers' reluctance to sell, but there is still supply pressure in the medium and long - term. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices or using a cross - year reverse spread strategy [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Supply and Demand**: According to CPC's monthly outlook, the planting weather for US soybeans in July was generally smooth, and South America had a bumper harvest. In China, ports and oil mills are in the inventory - building stage, and feed companies' inventory is higher than last year, with reduced enthusiasm for further restocking [1]. - **Price Movement**: The news of Indonesia's commitment to purchase $4.5 billion of US agricultural products boosted the price of US soybeans. China's soybean meal prices continued to rise. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [1][2]. - **Market Strategy**: Short - term rebound should be treated with caution. When approaching or above the previous high, continue to chase long positions with proper position and risk control management [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply and Demand**: Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but soil moisture in Canada is dry. In China, the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills has decreased month - on - month, but is still high year - on - year. From July to September, rapeseed imports will decrease significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal supports the price [1]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2736 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The short - term trend is bullish [1][4]. - **Market Strategy**: Short - term trend is bullish, but chasing long positions requires careful position and risk control management. Pay attention to the improvement of China - Canada relations and China - Australia progress [1]. Palm Oil - **Supply and Demand**: The July USDA supply - demand report lowered the global palm oil ending inventory for the new year. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61.19% month - on - month. However, the export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month were bearish [1]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8926 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The domestic palm oil price continued to rise [1][8]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautious when chasing long positions. Considering the supply season in Southeast Asia and the large inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil, it is difficult to force a short - squeeze [1]. Cotton - **Supply and Demand**: In the US, the soil moisture in cotton - growing areas is still good, and the excellent - good rate is increasing. In China, the actual sown area of cotton has increased, and the inventory of domestic commercial cotton has decreased. However, the downstream textile enterprises' orders are weakening, and the finished product inventory is increasing [1][13][14]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 14225 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The ICE cotton price rose 0.23% to 68.26 cents/pound, and the domestic spot price fell 0.30% to 15549 yuan/ton [11][13]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautious about shorting. Although the short - term bullish sentiment of funds is strong, the conditions for a short - squeeze are not complete. Be vigilant against the negative feedback from weakening downstream demand [1]. Red Dates - **Supply and Demand**: The growth of new - season jujube trees is good, and the expected production reduction is gradually being disproven. The old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the inventory reduction is slow. The demand is weak in the off - season [1][17]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10490 yuan/ton, up 0.77% [16][17]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautious about shorting. The upside pressure on the price is large, but the downside space is limited due to the relatively low price level [1]. Hogs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the slow - down in slaughter rhythm and farmers' reluctance to sell support the price. In the medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to May 2025 increased, indicating potential growth in slaughter volume in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the industry still has over - capacity [1][19]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14380 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The domestic spot price remained stable at 14810 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautiously bullish. The 09 contract may face a slight correction risk, while the 01 contract is relatively strong. Consider going long at low prices or using a cross - year reverse spread strategy [1].