碳酸锂周报： 市场利多消息扰动，基本面指引依然偏空 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2025.4.25 本周碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【宏观概况】中国即将召开重要会议，近期各省市正在密集出台关于扩内需促消费的相关方案。美国4月Markit制造业PMI初值 50.7，预期49，前值50.2；服务业PMI初值51.4，预期52.6，前值54.4，制造额表现超出预期，但商业活动增长降至16个月低点。 特朗普"改口"表示没打算解雇鲍威尔，并且对中国商品的关税不会高达145%，未来中美将对关税问题进行谈判。市场情绪得到 大幅缓解，但从长期来看风险依旧没有完全解除。 【供给端】本周碳酸锂产量连续6周下滑，但仍处于绝对高位。头部大厂检修，部分外采矿企业开始减停产，但随着盐湖进入季 节性生产旺季国内产量将再度回升。3月智利出口碳酸锂至中国1.66万吨，环比增加38%，同比增加3%。 【需求端】4月1—20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比去年4月同期增长20%，较上月同期下降11%，零售渗透率 53.3%，今年以来累计零售289.8万辆，同比增长33%；全国乘用车厂商新能源批发53万辆，同比去 ...

沪铜报告 假期避险情绪上升，铜多单止盈兑现 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-04-25 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 盘面情况 供应和需求 总结和展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 观点摘要 【核心观点】五一假期临近，市场避险情绪上升，特朗普关税政策陷入僵局，海内外降息预期 落空，建议短期铜多单止盈兑现，落袋为安 【策略展望】 本周特朗普上演"川剧变脸"，释放关税缓和信号，美联储官员放鸽，6月降息概率回升。国内LPR利率连续六个 月按兵不动，政治局会议保持定力，稳字当先。下周五一长假临近，且仅有3个交易日，市场避险情绪将上 升。基本面上，海外铜矿供应扰动不断，铜精矿加工费续创新低，需求展现韧性，但随着金三银四旺季逐渐进 入尾声，需要关注后续供需再平衡，库存去化可能放缓，此外也要警惕关税实质性落地对需求的抑制和海外隐 性库存释放，美国铜过剩库存回流亚洲的风险。 短期建议铜前期多单逐渐止盈兑现，落袋为安，轻仓或者空仓过节。中长期看，中美博弈进入新阶段，全球铜 矿紧张难以缓解，铜作为重要战略资源，我们对铜长期看涨仍旧有信心。 短期沪铜关注区间【75500，79 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **豆粕**: Short - term decline. The impact of Sino - US trade tariff increase on soybean meal is limited. South American soybean production is set, and US soybean planting has started smoothly. China will import over 10 million tons of soybeans per month from April to June. With ample rainfall expected for US soybeans in the next 15 days and the concentrated import supply season starting in April, the soybean meal market is bearish in the short - term [1][2]. - **菜粕**: Short - term rebound. Low inventory of rapeseed meal at oil mills supports the spot price. The increasing spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal reduces the substitution of rapeseed meal. However, the sharp rise in soybean meal prices drives up rapeseed meal prices. Also, the continuous increase in Canadian rapeseed prices supports domestic rapeseed meal prices. But beware of the supply pressure from the new rapeseed harvest [1][7]. - **棕榈 oil**: Short - term rebound. In April, the supply and demand of international palm oil both increased, with a possible downward trend in price. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and imports, with no supply - side pressure for now. Pay attention to international price guidance, and the near - month contracts may be strongly supported [1][9]. - **棉花**: Limited rebound. US cotton sowing is ongoing with improving soil moisture, which is bearish for the market. The tariff war is in a buffer stage, and demand is expected to pick up, but the overall market recession expectation remains. In China, the new cotton sowing is over half - done, and the demand is weak. After the release of short - term negative factors, the price will fluctuate within a range [1][11]. - **红枣**: Weak operation. Currently, there are few disturbances in the planting area, and the supply in the downstream market is sufficient. After the traditional consumption off - season, there are no bright spots, and fresh fruits are crowding out the market. The supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists [1][15]. - **生猪**: Low - level oscillation. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, and the oversupply pressure will dominate the market in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening is weakening, and the consumer demand lacks growth momentum. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [1][18]. Summary by Variety 豆粕 - **International**: The impact of Sino - US trade tariff increase is limited. South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started with smooth progress and favorable weather prospects [2]. - **Domestic**: From April to June, the monthly import is over 10 million tons. As of April 18, domestic port and oil - mill soybeans have been accumulating for three weeks, while soybean meal inventory is decreasing, and the spot supply is tight. Due to low inventory and tight supply, near - month contracts are strong, but the main contract has not broken the short - term adjustment pattern [2][3]. - **Price and Spread**: The main contract closed at 3031 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. The national average spot price was 3968.57 yuan/ton, down 2.31%. The national average soybean crushing profit was 697.4996 yuan/ton, down 51.24 yuan/ton. The basis of various contracts has increased, and there are changes in cross - variety and cross - period spreads [2]. 菜粕 - **Inventory and Price Support**: As of April 18, coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory decreased, and rapeseed meal inventory was low. Low inventory supports the spot price. The increasing price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal reduces substitution, but the rise in soybean meal prices drives up rapeseed meal prices. The increase in Canadian rapeseed prices also supports domestic prices [7]. - **Price and Spread**: The main contract closed at 2684 yuan/ton, down 1.50%. The national average spot price was 2714.21 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. The national average rapeseed spot pressing profit was - 578.177 yuan/ton, an increase of 54.08 yuan/ton. There are changes in basis, cross - variety, and cross - period spreads [4]. 棕榈油 - **Inventory and Market Sentiment**: As of April 18, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil was 38.44 million tons, up 3.58% week - on - week. The market sentiment shows that the proportions of those who are bullish, bearish, and neutral remain unchanged. The main contract closed at 8376 yuan/ton, up 1.77% [8][9]. - **Production and Price Outlook**: In April, the production of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 20 increased by 19.88% compared to the same period last month. The price is in a rebound trend, and near - month contracts may be strongly supported. Pay attention to US biodiesel policies, crude oil prices, and Malaysian palm oil export data in April [9]. 棉花 - **International**: As of April 20, the US cotton planting rate was 11%. The soil moisture in the main cotton - producing areas is expected to improve with rainfall. In Brazil, the soil moisture in cotton - growing areas has slightly deteriorated [11]. - **Domestic**: The intended cotton planting area in 2025 is 4376.3 million mu, up 1.5% year - on - year. The planting progress in Xinjiang is 62.3%, slightly faster than the same period. The spring peak season is ending, and the demand is weak. However, domestic retail and foreign trade exports show some resilience [12]. - **Price and Related Data**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 12990 yuan/ton, with no change. The domestic spot average price was 14241 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. There are changes in basis, cross - period spreads, and related profit and inventory data [10][11]. 红枣 - **Production and Market**: The main contract CJ2509 closed at 9080 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. Some jujube trees in southern Xinjiang have germinated, and the short - term weather impact is small. The inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly, and the market trading is light. With the arrival of fresh fruits, the demand for jujubes is expected to decline [14][15]. 生猪 - **Supply and Demand**: The main contract LH2509 closed at 14150 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The supply pressure in April - June is limited, but it will increase in the third quarter. The demand has a slight increase but remains low. The inventory is gradually increasing [16][17]. - **Price and Related Data**: The national average spot price of live pigs was 14980 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. There are changes in basis, spreads, inventory, and profit data [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of polyolefins remains abundant, and the fundamentals are weak. In the medium to long term, the industry is in a capacity expansion cycle, and there is an expectation of a continued decline in the price center of crude oil on the cost side. Therefore, the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds. For L2509, the focus range is [7050 - 7250], and for PP2509, it is [7050 - 7200] this week and [7050 - 7170] next week. The short position of the L - PP09 spread should be held [3][4][5]. Summary Based on Directories This Week's Review PE - **Viewpoint Review**: The supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with a volatile and weak trend. The new 208 - million - ton devices of Wanhua and others were put into production in the first quarter, and the 70 - million - ton Shandong New Era and 50 - million - ton ExxonMobil devices are planned to start in April. Although there is an expectation of supply reduction due to counter - sanctions, as demand gradually weakens, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the fundamentals is increasing. The L2509 was expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7250], and the short position of the L - PP09 spread should be held [3]. - **Viewpoint Review**: The L2509 fluctuated in the range of [7086 - 7220] this week, basically in line with expectations. The weekly output increased for 5 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.5%. The peak season of agricultural films is coming to an end, and the operating rate has declined for 4 consecutive weeks. The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and the market fluctuated weakly [3]. PP - **Viewpoint Review**: Attention should be paid to the changes in PDH devices, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds. Some devices are planned for maintenance and restart next week, and it is expected that the output will decrease slightly. Currently, the propane import gap has not significantly affected the PP end, and the PDH operating rate is basically the same as the same period in previous years. In terms of valuation, due to the double - weak situation of coal, the profits of oil - based and coal - based production are significantly higher than the same period last year, and there is still room to short the profits. In the short term, the operation of PDH devices is uncertain, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium to long term, multiple devices are planned to be put into production in the second quarter, and the medium - to - long - term pattern is weak. The PP2509 was expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7200] [5]. - **Viewpoint Review**: The PP2509 fluctuated in the range of [7056 - 7148] this week, basically in line with expectations. The supply - side output was 730,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons, and it has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 17th week is 16.3%. The downstream operating rate has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, showing a situation of weak supply and demand, and the total commercial inventory has declined for 2 consecutive weeks [5]. Next Week's Outlook PE - The supply remains abundant, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of funds. The new 258 - million - ton devices of Wanhua, Exxon, etc. have been put into production since the beginning of the year, and the 70 - million - ton Shandong New Era and 50 - million - ton ExxonMobil devices are planned to start in the second quarter. The import volume decreased significantly in March, and the import margins of LL and LD are negative. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the pressure of inventory accumulation in the industry chain is increasing. The L2509 is expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7250]. Currently, the concentration of short positions in the 09 contract is relatively high. As the long holiday approaches, if a large number of short positions are closed for profit, the market may rebound periodically. The short position of the L - PP09 spread should be held [4]. PP - High maintenance cannot offset high production, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds. Multiple devices such as Ningbo Taishu and Ningxia Baofeng were shut down unexpectedly at the end of the week, and the maintenance losses will be postponed to next week. Although the supply pressure has been marginally relieved, according to data, the planned new maintenance volume before May is less than the device restart volume, and the 955,000 - ton new device of Exxon was put into production in late April. In the medium to long term, multiple devices are planned to be put into production in the second quarter, and the medium - to - long - term pattern is weak. The PP2509 is expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7170] [6]. PE - Related Data - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The effective production capacity is increasing throughout the year. The production capacity utilization rate fluctuates between 76% - 87%. The monthly output, import volume, and export volume also show certain fluctuations. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of output and apparent consumption are positive, and the inventory at the end of the period shows a certain degree of change [7]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The PE main contract closing price, regional prices, and various costs and profits have changed. The PE output has increased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has decreased slightly. The inventory of enterprises, society, and traders has changed to varying degrees, and the position volume has increased significantly [8]. - **Production and Inventory**: This week's PE output is 640,000 tons, increasing for 5 consecutive weeks. The cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 17th week is 16.5%. Next week, it is expected that the total output will be 658,700 tons, an increase of 16,200 tons compared with this week [18]. - **Import and Export**: From January to March, the cumulative PE import volume was 3.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Currently, the import margins of LL and LD have turned negative, and the import pressure will gradually ease. It is expected that the total import volume of polyethylene in April and May will be about 1.01 million tons and 950,000 tons respectively [28]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 40% (a week - on - week increase of 0.01 pct). The peak season of agricultural films is coming to an end, and the operating rate has declined for 4 consecutive weeks. The operating rate of the packaging industry is running at a low level [31][37][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit is at a relatively high level compared with the same period [45]. - **Position Volume**: As of April 25th, the net short position of the L2509 main contract accounts for 63%. Attention should be paid to the capital dynamics of seats such as Guotai, Qiankun, and CITIC [50][51]. PP - Related Data - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The effective production capacity is increasing throughout the year. The production capacity utilization rate fluctuates between 77% - 79%. The monthly output, import volume, and export volume also show certain fluctuations. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of output and apparent consumption are positive, and the inventory at the end of the period shows a certain degree of change. The 50 - million - ton fourth line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's production plan has been postponed to mid - June [52]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The PP main contract closing price, regional prices, and various costs and profits have changed. The output has decreased, and the production capacity utilization rate has decreased. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the total commercial inventory, enterprise inventory, and trader inventory have all decreased [53]. - **Supply**: This week's PP output is 730,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons, and it has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 17th week is 16.3%. Due to the unexpected shutdown of multiple devices at the end of the week, the production capacity utilization rate of polypropylene is expected to continue to decline, and it is expected to run at around 74% next week [61]. - **Import and Export**: In March, PP turned into a net exporter again [69]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate has declined slightly for 3 consecutive weeks. The operating rate of the raffia is at a relatively high level compared with the same period. The profit of BOPP is relatively low, and the operating rate of PP non - woven fabrics is running smoothly [71][72][75][81]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit is at a relatively high level [87]. - **Position Volume**: As of April 25th, the net short position of the PP2509 main contract accounts for 51%. Attention should be paid to the capital dynamics of seats such as Dongzheng, CITIC, and Guotai [106][107].

PVC周报： 春检力度不足，低位震荡 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 时间：2025/4/28 春检力度不足，低位震荡 【本周概况】 观点回顾：季节性检修持续，关注成本及政策变动。下周天津渤化、青岛海湾、宁夏金昱元、四川金路等开工 提升，产量存小幅上升预期。虽然上游整体仍处于季节性检修阶段，但随着一体化利润的修复，企业难以出现 大面积降负，年初至今产量累计同比增速升值3.7%，关注电石及烧碱价格变动。近期库存持续去化，基本面边 际好转，基差走强。3月出口维持高增速，关注周二台塑报价。整体来看，低估值对盘面底部有支撑，但内需 弱势加之供给依旧充沛，上行驱动不足，盘面延续低位震荡。关注后续宏观政策变动及春季检修力度。策略上 ，短期观望为主，择机回调做多。V2509关注区间【4950，5120】。 观点复盘：本周V2509波动区间【4927，5053】，降幅略超预期。资金面看，周二主力移仓换月09增仓11万手， 盘面跌近2%。基本面看，装置陆续重启，上中游库存表现分化，企业库存周环比+0.9万吨，社会库存周环比- 2.1万吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Weak Investment Outlook - Crude Oil, L, PP, PVC, PTA/PR (PTA), Methanol, Urea, Asphalt [1] Neutral Investment Outlook - LPG, PP, PVC, Glass, Soda Ash [1] Bullish Investment Outlook - PX, PTA/PR (PTA) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ may accelerate the pace of production increase, putting pressure on oil prices. Long - term supply is expected to be in surplus, and short - term prices are likely to be weak with range - bound fluctuations [1][3][4]. - **LPG**: Affected by tariffs, the cost of imports has increased, but the impact is decreasing. It follows the trend of oil prices and is in a volatile state [1][7]. - **L**: With continuous inventory accumulation upstream and increasing production, supply is abundant while demand is weakening. In the long - term, the pressure of new device launches and the decline of crude oil prices make the rebound bearish [1][10]. - **PP**: The parking ratio is rising, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the long - term, the pressure of new device launches and the decline of crude oil prices make the rebound bearish [1][13]. - **PVC**: The spring maintenance is insufficient, with factory inventories increasing and social inventories decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks. It is in a low - level volatile state [1][16]. - **PX**: The devices are under planned maintenance, and the overall demand - side maintenance is high. In April, the fundamentals improved, and recently it has shown a strong - biased volatile trend following cost fluctuations [1][18]. - **PTA/PR (PTA)**: The high volume of device maintenance has alleviated the supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but is expected to weaken. In the short - term, it shows a strong trend, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1][22]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The devices are under planned maintenance, and the arrival volume is high. The demand from the polyester industry is high but expected to weaken, and the cost support is limited. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment state with a bearish rebound [1][24]. - **Glass**: The macro - hedging sentiment has cooled down, and real - estate data decline has narrowed. Supply is stable at a low level, and demand is seasonally recovering, but high intermediate inventories and weak restocking expectations suppress the rebound of the market [1][28]. - **Soda Ash**: There are more maintenance plans in May, and supply may contract again. Although the market sentiment has improved, the supply - demand drive is limited, and the overall trend is volatile [1][31]. - **Methanol**: Despite device maintenance, the overall supply pressure is still large, and the demand is expected to weaken. In the short - term, it is in a relatively loose state, and a bearish view is taken on rebounds [1][33]. - **Urea**: The supply pressure remains large, and the agricultural demand is in a gap period while the industrial demand is weakening. Although the fertilizer export growth rate is fast, the overall view is bearish [1]. - **Asphalt**: Both supply and demand are weak, and inventory is accumulating. The cost of crude oil is under pressure, and the valuation is high, resulting in a weak trend [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices rose slightly, with WTI up 0.37%, Brent up 0.23%, and domestic SC up 0.69% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices have reached a pressure level, and OPEC+ members propose to accelerate oil production increase in June. On the supply side, the number of active oil rigs in the US increased, and Kazakhstan's oil production decreased in March. On the demand side, China's gasoline production in March decreased year - on - year. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude oil and strategic crude oil reserves increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, oil supply will be in surplus, and the price will fluctuate between 55 - 65 US dollars. In the short - term, the resistance to price increases is rising, and it will be in a weak range - bound state. Attention should be paid to the range of SC [485 - 505] [4]. LPG - **Market Review**: On April 25, the PG main contract closed at 4406 yuan/ton, down 0.61% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4820 yuan/ton, 4910 yuan/ton, and 4910 yuan/ton respectively, with Shandong down 10 yuan/ton and the other two remaining unchanged [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Recently, the spot price of LPG has decreased, and it follows the range - bound trend of upstream oil prices. As of April 25, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the profit of PDH devices decreased, and the profit of alkylation devices increased. The supply increased slightly, while the demand of downstream devices decreased. The refinery inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to tariff disturbances, the import cost has increased, and there is short - term cost support. Technically, it follows the trend of oil prices. Strategies include a positive spread operation for PG05 - 06 and selling call options. Attention should be paid to the range of PG [4350 - 4450] [7]. L - **Market Review**: The closing prices of L01, L05, and L09 decreased, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices were mostly stable, and import and production profits changed. The main contract's basis increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased [9]. - **Basic Logic**: This year, new production capacities have been put into operation, and some devices have started production. The import windows of some products are closed, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season. Upstream inventory is accumulating, production has increased for 5 consecutive periods, supply is abundant, and demand is weakening. In the long - term, the pressure of new device launches and the decline of crude oil prices make the rebound bearish [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: A bearish view should be taken at high prices. Attention should be paid to the range of L [7080 - 7200] [10]. PP - **Market Review**: The closing prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 decreased, and the main contract's trading volume increased slightly. Spot prices were mostly stable, and production and import profits changed. The parking ratio increased, and the basis of the main contract increased [12]. - **Basic Logic**: In the first quarter, a new PP device was put into operation, and attention should be paid to the launch progress of a new PDH device in May. Affected by tariffs, product exports are under pressure. The parking ratio is rising, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the long - term, the pressure of new device launches and the decline of crude oil prices make the rebound bearish [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term observation is recommended, and a bearish view should be taken in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the range of PP [7050 - 7150] [13]. PVC - **Market Review**: The closing prices of V01, V05, and V09 decreased slightly, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices were mostly stable, and the cost of production decreased slightly. The basis of the main contract increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased [15]. - **Basic Logic**: In January, a new device was put into operation, and the supply is under pressure. The real - estate completion area decline has narrowed, and downstream demand is seasonally recovering. Exports from January to March increased significantly, and the offer price to India decreased in April. Spring maintenance is insufficient, factory inventories are increasing, social inventories are decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks, and warehouse receipts are continuously registered. It is in a low - level volatile state [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term observation is recommended, and a bullish view can be taken on pull - backs. Attention should be paid to the range of V [4970 - 5060] [16]. PX - **Market Review**: On April 25, the spot price of PX in East China was 6600 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6230 yuan/ton (+64). The basis in East China was 370 yuan/ton (-64) [17]. - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, which has alleviated the supply - side pressure. Some domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or have reduced their loads. The processing spread is at a low level in the past five years, and the gasoline cracking spread is rising. The weekly production and the Asian capacity utilization rate have decreased. The import volume in March increased. The demand from the PTA industry is expected to weaken due to more device maintenance. In April, the fundamentals improved, and recently it has shown a strong - biased volatile trend following cost fluctuations [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Attention should be paid to the range of PX [6180 - 6320] [19]. PTA/PR (PTA) - **Market Review**: On April 25, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4490 yuan/ton (+62), and the TA09 contract closed at 4400 yuan/ton (+30). The TA5 - 9 spread was 32 yuan/ton (+48), and the basis in East China was 90 yuan/ton (+32) [20][21]. - **Basic Logic**: Many PTA devices are under maintenance, which has alleviated the supply - side pressure. Some devices are restarting or planning to restart, while others are under maintenance. The downstream polyester load is high but is expected to weaken. The production and sales rates of polyester products have rebounded, but the inventory is still high. The terminal weaving industry's inventory is also high, and orders are decreasing. PTA inventory is decreasing. In the short - term, it shows a strong trend, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high prices [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high prices. Attention should be paid to the range of TA [4370 - 4500] [1]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On April 25, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4184 yuan/ton (-32), and the EG09 contract closed at 4160 yuan/ton (-19). The EG5 - 9 spread was 12 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis in East China was 24 yuan/ton (-13) [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices are under planned maintenance, which has alleviated the supply - side pressure. The expected arrival volume is high, and the import volume in March exceeded expectations. The downstream polyester load is high but is expected to weaken. The production and sales rates of polyester products have rebounded, but the inventory is still high. The terminal weaving industry's inventory is high, and orders are decreasing. Social inventory has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased. The cost support is weak [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Attention should be paid to the range of EG [4140 - 4220] [25]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market price increased, the futures market was in a low - level volatile state, the basis of the main contract decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The macro - hedging sentiment has cooled down, and real - estate data decline has narrowed. Supply is stable at a low level, and demand is seasonally recovering. However, the high inventory of upstream and intermediate enterprises suppresses the short - term rebound. Enterprises may reduce prices to avoid inventory accumulation before the May Day holiday. The total enterprise inventory increased this week, ending a 5 - week consecutive decrease. The futures discount to Hubei's spot price has increased [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Attention should be paid to the range of FG [1100 - 1140] [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was stable, the futures market was in a warm - biased volatile state, the basis increased, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of effective forecasts remained unchanged [30]. - **Basic Logic**: There are more maintenance plans in May, and supply may contract again. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate and weekly production have decreased slightly. The downstream demand has not changed much, and the inventory of soda ash plants has decreased slightly, but the absolute inventory is still high. The profits of the two main production methods have increased. The market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand drive is limited, and the overall trend is volatile [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Attention should be paid to the range of SA [1350 - 1380] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On April 25, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2413 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2288 yuan/ton (-1). The basis in East China and the port increased, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit remained unchanged [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Although domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or have reduced their loads, the overall supply pressure is still large due to the high comprehensive capacity utilization rate and the expected arrival of imports. The demand from the MTO industry is expected to weaken, and the traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. The social inventory has decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased. The cost support is weak due to the sufficient supply of coal [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: A bearish view should be taken on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the range of MA [2250 - 2300] [34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Despite the uncertainty in tariff negotiations, the long - term strategic allocation value of gold persists due to the global de - dollarization process and the demand from various economies [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment. Short - term sentiment has improved, but medium - term uncertainty is high, and the gold - silver ratio may be invalid in the short term [1]. - Copper is expected to decline in the short term, and long - term prospects are positive. Short - term investors are advised to take profits on long positions due to the approaching holiday and policy expectations [1][4][5]. - Zinc is expected to decline in the short term and has a supply - increase and demand - weak situation in the long term. Investors should look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][6][7]. - Lead prices are under pressure due to the supply - demand double - decline situation in the lead market [1]. - Tin prices are under pressure as the supply of tin ore is still restricted, and the rebound of tin prices is limited [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to rebound as the supply is stable, inventories are decreasing, and downstream demand is picking up [1][8]. - Nickel prices are expected to rebound and then decline. The contradiction in the nickel ore end is prominent, and the inventory of stainless steel is slowly decreasing [1][9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are recommended to be short - sold on rallies. Supply may contract, but demand is weak, and high inventories are difficult to reduce [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices are recommended to be short - sold on rallies. The fundamental situation has not improved, and the inventory has been accumulating for 11 weeks [1][11][12]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - **Market Performance**: SHFE gold is at 787.2, down 0.63% from the previous value and 2.22% from last week; COMEX gold is at 3361, down 0.01% from the previous value and 2.16% from last week [2]. - **Logic**: Tariff negotiations are uncertain, but the impact is diminishing. Investment funds have withdrawn significantly, but the global de - dollarization process is accelerating, which supports the long - term price of gold [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term investors should wait for the price to stop falling and focus on 766. Long - term investors should maintain a long - position allocation strategy [3]. Silver - **Market Performance**: SHFE silver is at 8280, down 0.19% from the previous value and up 0.40% from last week; COMEX silver is at 34, up 0.89% from the previous value and 3.77% from last week [2]. - **Logic**: Similar to gold, short - term sentiment has improved, but medium - term uncertainty is high [1]. - **Strategy**: Treat it with a range - trading mindset within the range of [8000, 8500] [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price of SHFE copper has slightly declined. The current price of the main contract is 77470, down 0.22% from the previous day [4]. - **Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is disrupted, and processing fees are at a low level. Demand shows resilience, but enterprises are cautious about orders due to price fluctuations and tariff policies. Inventory is decreasing, but the de - stocking may slow down [4]. - **Strategy**: Short - term investors should take profits on long positions and hold light or no positions during the holiday. Long - term investors are optimistic about copper. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [76000, 78000], and for LME copper is [9000, 9500] dollars/ton [5]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The price of SHFE zinc has declined. The current price of the main contract is 22550, down 0.86% from the previous day [6]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to increase in 2025. The import of zinc concentrate has increased, and the smelter's profit has turned positive. Downstream consumption has increased after the price decline, but export demand is expected to weaken [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices are expected to decline. Long - term investors should look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The range for SHFE zinc is [22000, 22800], and for LME zinc is [2600, 2680] dollars/ton [7]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices are strongly running, while alumina is relatively under pressure [8]. - **Logic**: The impact of overseas tariff policies has weakened. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum is decreasing, and downstream demand is increasing. The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure in the medium term [8]. - **Strategy**: Investors are advised to take long positions on SHFE aluminum at low prices, focusing on the terminal peak season performance. The main operating range is [19500 - 20300]. Alumina is expected to run weakly [8]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices are under pressure in the rebound, and stainless steel prices have a slight rebound [9]. - **Logic**: The contradiction in the Indonesian nickel ore end is prominent. The production of nickel ore is lower than expected, and the inventory of stainless steel is slowly decreasing, resulting in an oversupply situation [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Short - term investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the change in pure nickel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is [123000 - 129000] [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 opened slightly lower and fluctuated widely throughout the day [11]. - **Logic**: The fundamental situation has not improved, and the inventory has been accumulating for 11 weeks. Downstream demand has no seasonal increase, and although short - term supply is tightened, there is a risk of price decline if the negotiation result is unfavorable [11][12]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly, and investors should short - sell on rallies within the range of [67000, 70000] [12].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 走势偏强 | 钢铁行业压产 5000 万吨的消息再次影响市场，期货夜盘价格已有所反应。 | | | | 目前消息尚未完全确认，后续会议或给出结果。铁水产量高位运行，压产 | | | | 若落地对钢材整体影响较大，甚至产生供需偏紧预期，行情由政策结果主 | | | | 导，落地前或偏强运行。【3100，3220】 | | 热卷 | 偏强运行 | 钢铁压产消息提振市场，具体数据和措施有待后续会议确认。交易逻辑切 | | | | 换至政策，结果落地前或偏强运行。【3230，3350】 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 阶段性供应收缩，铁水产量大幅增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持 | | | | 高位。随着外矿发运逐渐恢复放量，铁矿基本面边际转弱。下游需求仍在 | | | | 改善，但市场对高铁水的承接力担忧更甚。近期粗钢压减传言又起，短期 | | | | 主要扰动盘面情绪，关注钢厂节前补库情况。观点：单边短线参与，跨期 | | | | 正套持有【680,720】 | | 焦炭 | 偏弱运行 | 焦企第二轮 ...

资料来源：IFIND，钢联，中辉期货研究院 【行情回顾】：隔夜国际油价上升，WTI 上升 0.84%，Brent 上升 0.72%，内盘 SC 下降 1.62%。 【基本逻辑】：核心驱动，油价行至压力位，叠加 OPEC+成员国提议在 6 月连续第二个月加快提高 石油产量，油价上行压力上升。供给方面，4 月 23 日，哈萨克斯坦新任圭亚那能源部周四公布数据 显示，该国 3 月石油产量较上月下降约 3%至 62.7 万桶/日，一季度石油产量平均为 63.1 万桶/日， 同比增长 3%；能源部长表示，在决定石油产量水平时，将优先考虑国家利益，而非 OPEC 及其盟友； JODI 周二发布数据显示，沙特 2 月份原油出口量较 1 月份增长近 50 万桶/日至 654.7 万桶/日。需求 方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国 3 月汽油产量 1322.00 万吨，同比下降 6.10%，1-3 月累计产 量为 3905.30 万吨，同比下降 5.10%。库存方面，截至 4 月 18 日当周，美国商业原油库存增加 20 万桶至 4.431 亿桶，战略原油储备增加 50 万桶至 3.975 亿桶，汽油库存减少 450 万桶至 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短期下跌 | 中美贸易加征关税事件进一步利多影响有限。南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植即 | | | | 将开启。国内港口及油厂大豆连续三两周累库，本周大豆开机继续回升，但节前备 | | | | 货提振豆粕消费。5-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。受豆粕低库存，现货供应偏紧影 | | | | 响，近月合约暂维持强势，主力合约昨日小幅收涨，但尚未打破短期调整格局。国 | | | | 际层面美豆未来十五天降雨展望充沛，以及国内 4 月开始进入集中进口供应季，在 | | | | 缺乏基本面利多预期下，豆粕主力短期暂以偏空运行格局为主。节前看多追多操作 | | | | 谨慎对待。主力【3030，3080】 | | | 短线反弹 | | | | | 截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜粕库存偏低，低于过去两年同期，对现货价格 带来支持，消费库存维持高位。豆菜粕现货价差近日再度扩大至 900 元/吨以上， | | | | 菜粕替代性下降。但由于豆粕现货价格因为短期供应不足大幅上涨，带动菜粕价格 | | 菜粕 | | ...