| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 市场恐慌性情绪有所缓解，但整体仍存在不确定性。基本面方面，螺纹产 | | 螺纹钢 | 低位运行 | 量已高于去年同期，但需求仍然偏弱，为同期最低水平，暂时未出现需求 | | | | 整体性转强。目前市场等待政策发力，短期行情或进入低位盘整状态。 | | | | 【3050，3150】 | | 热卷 | 低位运行 | 热卷从供需数据上看，暂时无明显矛盾，均为同期高位。但贸易摩擦升级 | | | | 以及越南、韩国反倾销政策或对出口预期产生影响。中期基本面仍有趋于 | | | | 宽松的倾向，短期市场期待政策出台，或进入低位震荡行情。【3150，3250】 | | 铁矿石 | 暂且观望 | 本期发到货双降，铁水产量继续上升，港口去库，基本面阶段性好转。下 游需求有望继续改善。而关税加码预期加重资金恐慌情绪，短线暂且观望。 | | | | 避险情绪主导，短线暂避锋芒，5-9 正套持有【655,725】 | | 焦炭 | 低位运行 | 近期随着焦炭现货提涨，以及山东地区去产能消息，基本面出现一定改善。 | | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西大豆产量展望基本维持稳定。阿根廷方面，未来十五天降雨有再度降雨不足的 可能。4 月美国将对中国加征 10%关税，中国发起反制，对美豆加征 10%的关税。 | | | | 美豆贸易争端暂告一段落。美豆种植意向面积公布结果同比环比调减，但美豆期末 | | | | 库存高于预期。国内市场方面，本周国内港口及大豆、豆粕库存环比下降。但 4 月 | | 豆粕 | 短线上涨 | 国内大豆进口开始放量，4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。中美贸易摩擦再度升级， | | | | 以及阿根廷有大豆地区出现霜冻，推动昨日豆粕再创近期新高。由于实质影响在前 | | | | 期的准备中较低，但市场情绪影响较大，目前豆粕暂以事件性行情对待。短线参与 | | | | 为宜。主力【3050，3230】 | | | | 美对加籽加征关税利空加籽下跌。国内市场本周沿海油厂菜籽及菜粕库存环比下 | | | | 降，压力边际改善。中国对加拿大菜粕菜油加征 100%关税，但未包含菜籽，且可 | | | | 交割菜粕途径较多，实际利多影 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: Short - term upward trend. The Sino - US trade friction has escalated, and the frost in some soybean - producing areas in Argentina has led to a higher opening of the bean meal price. However, the impact of the tariff event on the domestic bean meal supply is limited, and it is treated as an event - driven bullish speculative market [1][2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term rebound and consolidation. Affected by the bullish factors of the bean meal, the rapeseed meal opened higher and then declined. The fundamentals are weak, so be cautious when going long and manage positions and risks well [1][5][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term downward adjustment. In April, the international palm oil supply and demand both increased, but the monthly trend is expected to weaken. The domestic market has low inventory and low imports. Although the near - month contracts are supported by high import costs and high basis, be cautious when short - selling [1][7][8]. - **Cotton**: Under pressure. The international market is affected by trade frictions and the risk of macro - economic recession. The domestic market has high inventory, and the export cost has increased due to tariff barriers. The overall price is under pressure, but there may be a small technical rebound [1][9][12]. - **Red Dates**: Weak operation. The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The downstream market is in the off - season, and the arrival of fresh fruits has squeezed the market. It is expected to maintain a weak operation in the near future [1][13][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - term rebound. The market supply pressure is still large, but with the improvement of demand before the May Day holiday, beware of the basis convergence of contracts 5 and 7. Maintain a bearish overall view and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [1][15][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Bean Meal - **International Situation**: Brazil's soybean production outlook is stable. Argentina may face insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days. The Sino - US trade friction has escalated, with the US imposing a 10% tariff on China and China counter - imposing a 10% tariff on US soybeans [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: This week, the inventory of soybeans and bean meal at domestic ports decreased. From April to June, the monthly average soybean import will exceed 10 million tons. The trade tariff event has limited impact on the domestic bean meal supply [1][3]. - **Price Movement**: Driven by the Sino - US trade friction and frost in Argentina, the bean meal price opened higher and then declined. The futures price (main contract daily closing) increased by 6.67%, and the national average spot price increased by 3.62% [1][2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 3, the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills decreased this week, but the short - term supply is generally sufficient [5]. - **Policy Impact**: China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, but the actual bullish impact is limited as rapeseed is not included and there are many ways to deliver rapeseed meal [1][5]. - **Price Movement**: Affected by the bean meal, it opened higher and then declined. In a weak fundamental state, be cautious when going long [1][5]. Palm Oil - **International Supply and Demand**: In April, the international palm oil supply and demand both increased, but the marginal supply is increasing, and the monthly trend is expected to weaken [1][8]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic palm oil has low commercial inventory and low imports. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is inverted, resulting in light spot trading. The near - month contracts are supported by high import costs and high basis [1][7][8]. - **Price Movement**: During the holiday, the decline in crude oil and US soybean oil prices led to a large decline in the palm oil price. It is a short - term adjustment market, and be cautious when short - selling [1][7][8]. Cotton - **International Situation**: The northern hemisphere's cotton sowing has begun, and the southern hemisphere's sowing has ended. The US cotton planting area is slightly lower than expected, and Pakistan's sowing progress is slow. India's cotton production is expected to decline by 3% in the 2025/26 season [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic industrial and commercial inventory is high and is gradually being destocked. New cotton has been sown, and there are no obvious negative warnings about soil moisture and weather. The export cost of downstream textile enterprises has increased due to tariff barriers [1][9][12]. - **Price Movement**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased by 3.25%. The overall price is under pressure, but there may be a small technical rebound [9][10][12]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The transaction price is firm, but the overall trading volume is low. The Xinjiang main - producing areas' jujube trees are still in the dormant stage, and the inventory of 36 sample points has decreased slightly. The market purchasing atmosphere is light [13][14]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract of red dates decreased by 0.28%. It is expected to maintain a weak operation in the near future [13][14]. Live Pigs - **Supply Situation**: The supply pressure in the live pig market continues to be released, with sufficient supply of standard pigs. The second - fattening link shows small - scale entry and flexible operation characteristics. The number of breeding sows increased slightly in February [15][16]. - **Demand Situation**: After the weather warms up, the holiday inventory digestion is completed, and the demand has increased slightly. The slaughtering start - up rate has rebounded, but the growth rate is slowing down. Pay attention to the improvement of demand before the May Day holiday [15][16]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract of live pigs increased by 0.42%. The supply pressure is still large in the medium term, but there may be a short - term rebound. Maintain a bearish view and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [15][16][17].

资料来源：iFinD，mysteel，中辉期货 【品种观点】 螺纹市场恐慌性情绪有所缓解，但整体仍存在不确定性。基本面方面，螺纹产量已高于去年 同期，但需求仍然偏弱，为同期最低水平，暂时未出现需求整体性转强；热卷从供需数据上 看，暂时无明显矛盾，均为同期高位。但贸易摩擦升级以及越南、韩国反倾销政策或对出口 预期产生影响。 【盘面操作建议】 螺纹钢目前市场等待政策发力，短期行情或进入低位盘整状态。热卷中期基本面仍有趋于宽 松的倾向，短期市场期待政策出台，或进入低位震荡行情。 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 低位运行 | 市场恐慌性情绪有所缓解，但整体仍存在不确定性。基本面方面，螺纹产 | | | | 量已高于去年同期，但需求仍然偏弱，为同期最低水平，暂时未出现需求 | | 螺纹钢 | | 整体性转强。目前市场等待政策发力，短期行情或进入低位盘整状态。 | | | | 【3120，3200】 | | 热卷 | 低位运行 | 热卷从供需数据上看，暂时无明显矛盾，均为同期高位。但贸易摩擦升级 | | | | 以及越南、韩国反倾销政策或对出口预期产生影 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 美国加征关税叠加 OPEC+增产，油价下挫。美国掀起全球关税战，市场担忧宏观经济前 | | | | 景；OPEC+计划增产幅度超预期；EIA 显示美国原油库存累库。SC【470-485】 | | LPG | 盘整 | 丙烷进口成本上升，上游油价短期压制，液化气盘整。4 月 4 日，中国对美国加征反制关 | | | | 税，税率为 34%，国内丙烷大约 50%从美国进口，丙烷进口成本短期上升。PG【4550-4650】 | | L | 偏弱 | 利润修复装置重启，上游高投产，供给充足；国内进行反制裁，进口存缩量预期，短期 | | | | 关税政策主导盘面走势，震荡偏弱。中长期，装置投产压力偏高，逢高偏空。L【7230-7400】 | | PP | 震荡 | 现货市场成交乏力，关注反制裁对 PDH 装置的影响，短期跟随情绪偏弱运行。中长期， | | | | 装置投产压力偏高，反弹偏空。PP【7130-7260】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 盘面维持升水结构，仓单继续注册，短期跟随宏观情绪偏弱运行。 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位调整 | 黄金继续被抛售补充流动性，黄金价格调整。长期看，美国关税核弹开启另一 个混乱纪元，未来变数较大，长期不确定困扰仍在，短期等待调整结束，长期 | | | | 战略配置价值仍存【700-728】 | | 白银 | 调整 | 关税对盘面的情绪性冲击尚未结束，全球市场继续交易经济衰退，交易"滞" 的逻辑，白银年后涨幅居首，故关税落地价格调整幅度较大，目前价格跌入前 | | | | 期的震荡区间附近，操作上等待企稳，不接刀子。【7500-7900】 | | 铜 | 延续回落 | 全球经济和金融危机担忧爆发，中方对美强硬反制后，特朗普威胁再度加码 50% 关税，市场恐慌情绪暂时难以缓解，铜延续回落，短期多空双杀，建议暂时观望， | | | | 不要火中取栗。沪铜关注区间【70000，75000】 | | 锌 | 承压回落 | 前期锌高位空单继续持有，中长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会，沪锌关注区 | | | | 间【21800，22800】 | | 铅 | 承压 | 海外关税扰动市场，国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term upward trend. Brazil's soybean production outlook is stable, while Argentina may face insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days. The US - China trade dispute over soybeans has temporarily ended. The US soybean planting intention area has decreased, but the ending inventory is higher than expected. In the domestic market, port and soybean meal inventories have decreased this week, but soybean imports will increase from April to June. The intensification of Sino - US trade frictions and frost in Argentina may lead to a bullish sentiment in the market. Near - month contracts' gains are limited, while there is a risk of far - month contract price increases. The main contract range is [3000, 3090] [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term stop - falling and rebound. The US tariff on Canadian rapeseed is negative for rapeseed prices. In the domestic market, the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills have decreased, and the pressure has marginally improved. Although China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the actual positive impact is limited. The short - term supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is sufficient, and the new rapeseed will be harvested in May, with a weak fundamental situation. However, influenced by the bullish sentiment in the soybean meal market, there is a demand for a stop - falling and rebound. The main contract range is [2560, 2700] [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term high - level oscillation. In April, the supply and demand of international palm oil both increase, but with the gradual recovery of the production season and the increasing marginal supply, the monthly trend of palm oil is expected to weaken. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April. The previous pest infestation in Malaysian palm oil trees needs attention. In the domestic market, the commercial inventory of palm oil is low, and imports are low. The inverted spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has led to light spot trading. The near - month contracts are expected to remain strong before expiration, but the fundamental situation is gradually weakening. The far - month contracts should be treated as a large - range market. The main contract range is [9150, 9350] [1]. - **Cotton**: Phased weakening. The ICE market has declined rapidly due to China's further tariff counter - measures. In the context of the deteriorating international trade environment, the US inflation expectation has intensified, consumption expectation has declined, and the risk of macro - economic recession has increased, posing severe challenges to US cotton exports and prices. In the domestic market, industrial and commercial inventories are high and gradually being reduced, and the import side has shrunk significantly. The new - season cotton planting area is expected to increase, and the soil moisture has no obvious negative warning. The focus in April will shift to new - season planting. The export cost of textile products has increased due to tariff barriers, and the domestic oversupply situation may intensify. The domestic cotton - related consumption policy is still poor, and the short - term market is expected to be under pressure. The main contract range is [13200, 13600] [1]. - **Red Dates**: Weak operation. In the short term, the arrival volume in the downstream sales areas is large, and there are no bright spots after the downstream market enters the off - season. Seasonal fresh fruits are gradually entering the market, squeezing the market share of red dates. The current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of the red date market has not improved significantly, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation in the near future. Attention should be paid to the situation of the new production season. The main contract range is [9000, 9300] [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak oscillation. The futures market has pre - traded the small resonance market of secondary fattening and slaughter in the future, leading to a rebound in the basis. The current market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pressure of oversupply is expected to dominate the market trend in the first half of 2025. Recently, farms have increased their slaughter, and the supply of standard pigs is expected to be abundant. After the narrowing of the price difference between standard and fat pigs, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the market demand recovery is limited. The low - level spot price restricts the unilateral trading trend of futures. The main 2505 contract of live pigs is expected to continue to operate at a low level after being under pressure. Attention should be paid to the future data of piglets for arbitrage opportunities in the second half of the year. The main contract range is [13150, 13500] [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Production and Trade**: Brazil's soybean production outlook is stable, while Argentina may have insufficient rainfall. The US - China soybean trade dispute has temporarily ended, and the US soybean planting intention area has decreased, but the ending inventory is higher than expected [1]. - **Domestic Market**: This week, domestic port and soybean meal inventories have decreased, but soybean imports will increase from April to June, with an average monthly import of over 10 million tons [1]. - **Price and Contract**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2865 yuan/ton, up 1.17% from the previous day. Spot prices have slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the risk of far - month contract price increases, and near - month contract gains are limited. The main contract range is [3000, 3090] [1][2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Policy**: In the domestic market, the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills have decreased, but the short - term supply is sufficient. China's 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has limited actual positive impact [1][5]. - **Market Trend**: Influenced by the bullish sentiment in the soybean meal market, rapeseed meal is expected to stop falling and rebound. The main contract range is [2560, 2700] [1]. Palm Oil - **International Market**: In April, the supply and demand of international palm oil both increase, but the marginal supply is increasing. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April, and the export tariff has been adjusted [1][8]. - **Domestic Market**: The commercial inventory of palm oil is low, and imports are low. The inverted spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has led to light spot trading. The near - month contracts are expected to remain strong before expiration, but the fundamental situation is gradually weakening. The main contract range is [9150, 9350] [1][8]. Cotton - **International Situation**: The ICE market has declined due to China's tariff counter - measures. The US cotton planting area is slightly lower than expected, and Pakistan's new cotton sowing progress is slow. India's cotton production is expected to decline [1][10]. - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic cotton planting area is expected to increase in 2025. The soil moisture in the north of Xinjiang is good, while the south may be affected by drought. The downstream demand is weak, and the "peak season is not prosperous" phenomenon persists. The trade barriers have increased the export cost, and the domestic oversupply situation may intensify. The main contract range is [13200, 13600] [1][11]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The short - term arrival volume in the downstream sales areas is large, and the market is in an off - season. Seasonal fresh fruits are squeezing the market share of red dates. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has not improved significantly, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation. The main contract range is [9000, 9300] [1][15]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: The supply pressure in the live pig market continues to be released, and the supply of standard pigs is abundant. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the market demand recovery is limited. The main 2505 contract is expected to continue to operate at a low level [1][18]. - **Price and Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 13270 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day. Spot prices are stable. Attention should be paid to the future data of piglets for arbitrage opportunities in the second half of the year [1][16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 美国加征关税叠加 OPEC+增产，油价下挫。美国对等关税靴子落地，美国对多数贸易伙 | | | | 伴加征关税；OPEC+计划增产幅度超预期；EIA 显示美国原油库存累库。SC【470-510】 | | LPG | 偏强 | 中国反制美国加征关税，对美液化气加征关税。4 月 4 日，中国对美国加征反制关税，税 | | | | 率为 34%，国内丙烷大约 50%从美国进口，丙烷进口短期上升。PG【4700-4800】 | | L | 震荡 | 关税重挫制品出口及原油价格，国内进行反制裁，进口端存缩量预期，基本面多空交织， | | | | 区间震荡。中长期，装置投产压力偏高，逢高偏空。L【7625-7755】 | | PP | 反弹 | 国内实施反制裁，4 月装置检修旺季，关注 PDH 装置变动，预计短期延续反弹走势。中 | | | | 长期，装置投产压力偏高，反弹偏空。PP【7300-7400】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 4 月仓单重新注册，社库继续去化，预计节后跟随宏观情绪偏弱运行。4-5 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位调整 | 上周末因为被大机构资金确实，黄金被抛售补充流动性，黄金价格调涨。但是 长期看，美国关税核弹开启另一个混乱纪元，未来变数较大，长期不确定困扰 | | | | 仍在，短期等待调整结束，长期战略配置价值仍存【710-740】 | | 白银 | 大幅调整 | 短期刺激逻辑消退，全球供应品市场交易经济衰退，交易"滞"的逻辑，白银 年后涨幅居首，故关税落地价格调整幅度较大、国内市场开盘补跌，不排除跌 | | | | 停的可能性，操作上等待企稳，不接刀子。【7500-7800】 | | | | 清明假期，中方对美强硬反制，全球经济和金融危机担忧爆发，有色板块暴跌，伦 | | 铜 | 承压重挫 | 铜假期累计跌幅 10.42%，美铜累计跌幅 12.78%，折算沪铜 71640 元/吨，沪铜开 | | | | 盘或需跌停两日，市场情绪大起大落，大跌后或出现快速反弹，多空搏杀激烈，建 | 锌 承压回落 伦锌假期累积跌幅 3.97%，前期锌高位空单继续持有，中长期看，锌供增需弱，把 握逢高空机会，沪 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 弱势运行 | 市场整体恐慌性下跌，黑色系亦受影响。基本面方面，螺纹产量已高于去 | | | | 年同期，但需求仍然偏弱，为同期最低水平。在钢厂利润仍然不错的背景 | | 螺纹钢 | | 下，整体供需趋于宽松的矛盾有增强可能，警惕破位下行风险走势偏弱。 | | | | 【3010，3100】 | | 热卷 | 中期偏弱 | 热卷基本面目前体现为供需两旺的状态，库存正常去化。但禁止"买单出 | | | | 口"或对后期钢材出口产生较大影响，基本面有趋于宽松的倾向，叠加市 | | | | 场整体恐慌情绪，警惕破位下行风险。【3180，3300】 | | | | 虽然基本面阶段性好转，但关税大战之下资金避险情绪升温。假期外盘明 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 显下跌，日内连铁亦恐受波及。关注国内刺激政策出台及落地情况，短期 | | | | 矿价震荡偏弱运行。近月短线参与，09 合约逢高空配【750,810】 | | | | 原油大幅下挫，带动能源板块整体下行。节前焦炭现货虽有提涨，山东地 | | 焦炭 | 弱势下行 ...