交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 5 月 9 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/5/9 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 氧化铝 | 二债 | 铝 | | | | 棉花 | 五债 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 棉纱 | 尿素 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 铁矿石 | 原油 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 工业硅 | 三十债 | 烧碱 | | | | 豆粕 | 十债 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 棕櫚油 | 液化石油气 | 燃油 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 纯碱 | | | | | 焦煤 | 短纤 | | | | | 焦炭 | 白糖 | | | | | 塑料 | ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 5 月 7 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農筋 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 原油 | 中证1000指数期货 | 燃油 | | | | 棉纱 | 中证500股指期货 | 液化石油气 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 氧化铝 | 铝 | | | | 棉花 | 二债 | | | | | 豆粕 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | | 棕櫚油 | 五债 | | | | | 焦炭 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 焦煤 | 尿素 | | | | | 塑料 | 十债 | | | | | 甲醇 | 三十债 | | | | | 纸浆 | 烧碱 | | | | | 原木 | 沥青 | | | | | 生猪 | 白糖 | | ...

--------高浓度碱大幅度下跌后企稳回升 烧碱期货仓单数量稀少 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年5月6日 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应产量 | | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为83.9%，环比+1.8%。西北、华中、华东、华南、西南新增重启装置，带动负 | | | | 荷不同程度提升，周内华北有装置减产导致负荷下滑。山东产能利用率呈现上升+0.1%至91.1%。本周来看，华北、华南、西南均有 | | | | 装置复产，因此综合来看，预计本周烧碱产能利用率涨至85%左右，周产量82万吨左 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 5 月 6 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅 | 沪银 | 玻璃 | | 沪铜 | 白糖 | 铁矿石 | | 沪锌 | 焦炭 | 棕榈油 | | 沪铝 | 豆粕 | 沪锡 | | 豆油 | 聚丙烯 | 菜油 | | 玉米 | PTA | 塑料 | | 豆二 | 菜粕 | 锰硅 | | | ロー | | | | 鸡蛋 | | | | PVC | | | | 沥青 | | | | 焦煤 | | | | 甲醇 | | | | 热轧卷板 | | | | 郑棉 | | | | 沪金 | | | | 橡胶 | | | | 螺纹钢 | | | | 玉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the industry conference promotes production - cut and price - support plans. Although short - term factory inventory is expected to decrease and the mid - stream may stop reducing inventory, continuous price increases are difficult. The long - term bearish trend remains, but caution is needed before the positive feedback atmosphere ends. Traders are advised to pay attention to new order transaction prices and the implementation of maintenance and price - support plans, and short - term short - covering and then short - selling at high prices are recommended after the upward sentiment calms down [8][9]. - For the glass market, from a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the market sentiment to improve. A long - position strategy for far - month contracts is recommended, and subsequent attention should be paid to production line changes, the digestion progress of low - price spot and futures sources, and the price - volume sentiment changes of spot in major production areas [173]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - **Supply**: The total weekly production is 75.51 million tons, with heavy - soda production at 41.55 million tons and light - soda production at 33.96 million tons. The import volume is 0.07 million tons, and the export volume is 4.2 million tons. There are production - cut and maintenance plans in the industry, and potential incremental production awaits the full - capacity operation of Jiangsu Debang and the subsequent commissioning of Lianyungang Alkali Plant [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - soda consumption is 34.27 million tons, and the light - soda apparent demand is 30.87 million tons. The apparent demand for soda ash is 77.54 million tons. The market's expectation for terminal demand is weak, but the short - term apparent demand may be boosted by the positive feedback between futures and spot [8]. - **Inventory**: The alkali factory inventory is 169.1 million tons, and the social inventory is 33.85 million tons. With the positive feedback and subsequent production - cut expectations, short - term factory inventory is expected to decrease, while mid - stream inventory may stop falling and start to rise [8]. - **Valuation**: The ammonia - soda process cost is 1327 yuan, and the profit is 83 yuan. The combined - soda process cost is 1170 yuan, and the profit is 140 yuan. The price difference between heavy and light soda in Central China is 40 yuan, and the basis of the market price in Shahe is 20 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - **Production**: The report provides monthly production data of soda ash from 2020 to 2025 [15]. - **Imports and Exports**: The current import volume is 0.32 million tons, and the export volume is 19.43 million tons. Compared with the previous month, imports decreased by 0.23 million tons, and exports increased by 0.02 million tons. Compared with the same period last year, imports decreased by 21.23 million tons, and exports increased by 9.45 million tons [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Spot - Futures Price Comparison**: It shows the price trends of soda ash futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, and glass futures price index from 2020 to 2025 [24][25][26][27]. - **Soda Ash Contract Basis**: Presents the basis trends of Shahe heavy - soda 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [29][31][32]. - **Soda Ash Contract Inter - period Spread**: Displays the spread trends of soda ash 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [34][35][36]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Shows the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2021 to 2026 [38][39][40][42]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - **Shahe Region**: The current market price of heavy - soda in Shahe is 1312 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan compared with last week and 938 yuan compared with last year [47]. - **Light and Heavy Soda Regional Prices**: The prices of heavy and light soda in different regions such as North China, East China, and Central China are provided, with most prices remaining stable [51]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Start - up and Shutdown**: Some enterprises are currently under maintenance or reducing load, and some have planned maintenance in May [88]. - **Start - up Rate**: The current domestic soda ash start - up rate is 89.44%, with a weekly production of 75.51 million tons, heavy - soda production of 41.55 million tons, and light - soda production of 33.96 million tons [89]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit trends of ammonia - soda and combined - soda processes from 2020 to 2025 are presented, as well as the price trends of related products such as synthetic ammonia, limestone, and caustic soda [100][102][104][106][112][122][126]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Heavy - Soda Demand**: It shows the daily melting volume of photovoltaic and float glass, the daily consumption of heavy - soda, and the weekly demand from 2020 to 2025 [137][139][140][141]. - **Weekly Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio**: Presents the weekly consumption and production - sales ratio of light and heavy soda from 2020 to 2025 [143]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Price**: Displays the market average prices of 3.2mm and 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass from 2021 to 2025 [146][147]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The current soda ash enterprise inventory is 169.1 million tons, with light - soda enterprise inventory at 85.05 million tons and heavy - soda enterprise inventory at 84.05 million tons [151]. - **Regional Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of soda ash in different regions such as North China, Central China, and East China from 2020 to 2025 [159][160][162]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass is 157,175 tons, and the weekly production is 110.02 million tons. There are cold - repair and production - start plans for some production lines [171]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 108.47 million tons. Market sentiment suppresses the apparent demand, but the mid - and downstream purchase appropriately at low prices [171]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 327.37 million tons, and short - term inventory is expected to increase slightly due to demand suppression [171]. - **Valuation**: The cost and profit of natural - gas, coal - gas, and petroleum - coke production lines are provided. Low - cost production capacity still has profits, but most production capacity is in the red [171]. 3.9 Glass Monthly Supply and Demand - **Production**: Displays the monthly production data of flat glass from 2020 to 2025 [178]. - **Imports and Exports**: Presents the monthly import and export data of float glass from 2020 to 2025 [179][183]. 3.10 Glass Basis and Spread - **Spot - Futures Price Comparison**: Shows the price trends of soda ash futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, and glass futures price index from 2020 to 2025 [187][188][189][190]. - **Glass Contract Basis**: Presents the basis trends of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [192][193][194]. - **Glass Contract Inter - period Spread**: Displays the spread trends of glass 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 contracts from 2009 to 2026 [196][197][198]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Shows the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2021 to 2026 [201][202][203][205]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - **Float Glass 5mm Regional Price**: Provides the price information of 5mm float glass in different regions such as Shahe, North China, and East China, with some prices showing slight fluctuations [210]. - **Float Glass 5mm Large - Plate Price**: Displays the price trends of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan 5mm glass large - plate tax - included price, and South China 5mm glass large - plate tax - included price from 2020 to 2025 [225]. 3.12 Glass Supply No relevant content provided for the supply part after "05 Glass Supply".

中泰期货尿素周报 2025年5月6日 ——节前收单火爆 外需传闻扰动期货市场 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-86113507 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 主要内容 3 2 尿素及相关产品价格 尿素供应 1 综述 5 4 尿素需求 尿素库存 | 产业链 | | 2025年4月24日-4月 | 2025年5月1日-5月 | 2025年5月8日-5月 | 2025年5月15日-5月 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 30日 | 7日 | 14日 | 21日 | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量：万 吨 | 20.01 | 20.43 | 20.29 | 20.14 | 上周新增4家企业停车，停车企业恢复7家，本周预计1 家企业计划检修，1家停车企业恢复生产(预估数据来自 | | | | | | | | 隆众资讯） | | 需求 | 农业需求 | ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 4 月 30 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 备注: | | --- | | 1. 趋势判断观点主要基于各品种的基本面等因素。 - ST John School SC -- London -- London - - Library ado PC -- don Min / Le Pro 21 minute of the | | | 基于量化指标研判 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 偏空 | 農汤 | 偏多 | | 护金 | 标桐油 | 焦炭 | | 玉米淀粉 | 沪银 | 铁矿石 | | 玉米 | 聚丙烯 | 塑料 | | 热轧卷板 | PVC | 沪锡 | | 沪铝 | ...

交易咨询资格号： 晨会纪要 2025 年 4 月 29 日 证监许可[2012]112 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | РУС | 菜油 | 沪银 | | 玉米淀粉 | 豆粕 | 铁矿石 | | 螺纹钢 | 甲醇 | PTA | | 焦煤 | 棕櫚油 | 沪锡 | | 玉米 | 聚丙烯 | 玻璃 | | 沪铅 | 锰硅 | 焦炭 | | 热轧卷板 | 直一 | 菜粕 | | | 塑料 | | | | 白糖 | | | | 邦棉 | | | | 沥青 | | | | 걸ニ | | | | 护金 | | | | 鸡蛋 | | | | 橡胶 | | | | 旦相 | | | | 沪锌 | | | | 护铜 | | | | ...

供给侧政策短期利多，政策强定力中期依然弱势 中泰黑色报告 2025年4月28日 黑色研究团队 裴红彬 从业资格号：F0286311 交易咨询证书号：Z0010786 张 林 从业资格号：F0243334 交易咨询证书号：Z0000866 董雪珊 从业资格号：F3075616 交易咨询证书号：Z0018025 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 中泰黑色报告摘要20250426：供给侧政策短期利多，政策强定力中期依然弱势 交易逻辑和核心观点 受粗钢压减政策减产5000万吨消息影响，钢材走势震荡偏强运行。但从政治局会议精神来看，国内政策以稳为主，表现出较强定力，后期存量政策紧 踩油门，增量政策引而不发，大概率要等到出口等影响到经济增速以后，或者叠加对等关税90天豁免到期，也就是6-7月份之后，或者7月底的政治局会议。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 政治局会议精神对黑色市场影响：政策"两步走"，存量加速，增量蓄力 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 从成本来看，原料价格近期废钢提涨以及铁 ...

国内CPI、PPI、PMI走势及房地产数据 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2019-07 2019-11 2020-03 2020-07 2020-11 2021-03 2021-07 2021-11 2022-03 2022-07 2022-11 2023-03 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 中国CPI（%） CPI:当月同比 CPI:环比 -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2019-07 2019-11 2020-03 2020-07 2020-11 2021-03 2021-07 2021-11 2022-03 2022-07 2022-11 2023-03 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 中国PPI（%） PPI:当月同比（左轴） PPI:环比（右轴） 35 40 45 50 55 制造业PMI 生产 新订单 原材料库存 从业人员 供应商配送时间 新出口订单 进口 采购量 主要原材料购进价格 出厂价格 产成品库存 在手 ...