Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the arrival at the port is expected to increase next week, and the supply side has certain support. However, affected by the low departure from New Zealand and the rising foreign quotation, the import volume of Chinese ports in August is expected to be relatively low [6][7]. - The off - season continues, and the port outbound is still weak. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the short - term demand is weak but the decline space is limited. As the peak season approaches, the outbound is expected to improve gradually [8][9]. - The total arrival at the port is still low, but there are signs of demand recovery. If the arrival at the port remains weak, the inventory is expected to decline steadily [9]. - The foreign quotation is expected to rise, and the spot price is relatively stable as the peak season approaches. The subsequent rise in the foreign quotation may support the domestic spot to some extent. The fundamentals of the futures market are volatile, and the futures price is affected by capital and commodity sentiment [11]. - The foreign quotation has rebounded, the import profit has declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still in a weak and volatile state. Affected by the weak demand of downstream and terminal, the profits of logs and timber are expected to show a weak trend [15]. - For the industrial chain, the spot price is stable. It is reported that the arrival at the port is expected to increase slightly this week. As the peak season approaches, the outbound may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly. For the futures market, the fundamentals are volatile, and the futures price is affected by capital and commodity sentiment. In the short term, it is recommended to observe and conduct appropriate hedging at high prices according to the actual spot situation [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1 Log Overview Supply - side - The number of arriving ships on August 15, 2025, was 8, a decrease of 7 compared with August 8, with an expected increase to 9 next week. The arrival volume was 25.1 million cubic meters, a decrease of 22 million cubic meters compared with August 8. The import volume of coniferous logs was 217.68 million cubic meters, a decrease of 1.39 million cubic meters month - on - month and 7% year - on - year. The import volume of radiata pine was 160.68 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.32 million cubic meters month - on - month and 6% year - on - year [7]. - From the seasonal perspective of New Zealand's shipments, June and July are the off - seasons. In July, New Zealand shipped 46 ships with a volume of 175.5 million cubic meters, remaining at a low level for two consecutive months. Affected by the low departure from New Zealand and the rising foreign quotation, the import willingness of domestic traders is suppressed to some extent [7]. Demand and Inventory - side - The weekly outbound volume of the whole country was 44.31 million cubic meters on August 15, a decrease of 0.6 million cubic meters compared with August 8. The apparent demand was 30.10 million cubic meters, a decrease of 28.3 million cubic meters compared with August 8. The inventory was 353.75 million cubic meters, a decrease of 5 million cubic meters compared with August 8 [9]. - The off - season continues, and the port outbound is still weak. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the short - term demand is weak but the decline space is limited. As the peak season approaches, the outbound is expected to improve gradually. The total arrival at the port is still low, but there are signs of demand recovery. If the arrival at the port remains weak, the inventory is expected to decline steadily [9]. Price and Spread - The foreign quotation of radiata pine is expected to rise, and the spot price is stable. The fundamentals of the futures market are volatile, and the futures price is affected by capital and commodity sentiment. The wood square price is stable, and the downside space is limited due to the support of raw material costs [11]. - The spot spread is relatively stable. Affected by the spot spread, the current basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine, with a reference size difference of 8%, equivalent to about 780 - 790 yuan per cubic meter on the futures market [13]. Cost and Profit - The import cost of radiata pine is 998 yuan per cubic meter on August 15, an increase of 7 yuan compared with August 8. The import cost of spruce is 1270 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 11 yuan compared with August 8. The import profit of radiata pine is - 61 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 7 yuan compared with August 8. The import profit of spruce is - 120 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 11 yuan compared with August 8 [15]. - The foreign quotation has rebounded, the import profit has declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still in a weak and volatile state. Affected by the weak demand of downstream and terminal, the profits of logs and timber are expected to show a weak trend [15]. Strategy Recommendation - For the industrial chain, the spot price is stable. It is reported that the arrival at the port is expected to increase slightly this week. As the peak season approaches, the outbound may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly [17]. - For the futures market, the fundamentals are volatile, and the futures price is affected by capital and commodity sentiment. In the short term, it is recommended to observe and conduct appropriate hedging at high prices according to the actual spot situation [17]. Part 2 Log Balance Sheet - The report provides the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6, 2025, to August 15, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily average outbound volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and species, total inventory, and supply - demand differences [20]. Part 3 Log Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - side - No specific content about New Zealand log shipments, log imports, and imports by species is described, only the headings are provided [26][28][31]. Demand - side - No specific content about the daily average outbound volume of logs, real - estate, and downstream substitutes is described, only the headings are provided [35][37][55]. Inventory - side - No specific content about inventory summary, inventory by species, and inventory by region is described, only the headings are provided [59][61][67]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - No specific content about log import cost and profit, and log delivery profit is described, only the headings are provided [73][78]. Part 5 Log Price and Spread Analysis Log Foreign Quotation - No specific content is described, only the heading is provided [85]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices - The report shows the seasonal price trends of 3.9m pulp, 3.9m small A, 3.9m medium A, 3.9m large A, 5.9m medium A radiata pine, and 11.8m spruce from 2024 to 2025 [88][89]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads - No specific content is described, only the heading is provided [91]. Radiata Pine and LG Basis - No specific content is described, only the heading is provided [97]. LG Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread - The report shows the seasonal price trend of the LG main contract from 2024 to 2025 [99][100].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 8 月 20 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/20 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 合成橡胶 | 橡胶 | 三十债 | | | | 锌 | 工业硅 | 二债 | | | | 原油 | 沥青 | 五债 | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 多晶硅 | | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 棉花 | | | | | 玉米 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 生猪 | | | | | 纯碱 | 棉纱 | | | | | 甲醇 | 上证50股指期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Economy**: China's State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasizes enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stabilizing market expectations, and boosting consumption and investment. The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. In the domestic real - estate market, the "price - for - volume" phenomenon persists in the second - hand housing market [5][6]. - **Macro - Finance**: For stock index futures, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips, and pay attention to the safety margin for short - term entry. For treasury bond futures, the curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term [8][9]. - **Black Metals**: The policy for the black metal industry is expected to be milder, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Steel and ore prices will likely remain volatile, while coking coal and coke prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. For ferroalloys, it is advisable to hold previous short positions [11][13][14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Zinc prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and weak demand. Lithium carbonate prices will be supported by tightened fundamentals in the short term. Industrial silicon prices will fluctuate, and polysilicon prices will have wide - range oscillations [18][19][20]. - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton prices will be affected by both short - term supply - demand tightness and long - term production increase pressure. Sugar prices are constrained by expected supply increases. Egg prices are likely to be weak in the short term, and apple prices can be operated with a light - position positive spread strategy [21][25][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are likely to be weak due to expected supply increases. Fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG prices will follow the trend of crude oil. Plastics, methanol, and other chemical products are expected to have weak oscillations [36][37][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - China's State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasizes enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stimulating consumption, and promoting investment. Trump meets with Zelensky, and the market awaits the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The second - hand housing market in China shows a "price - for - volume" trend, with prices falling [5][6]. 3.2 Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market has a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a nearly 10 - year high. The strategy is to go long on dips in the long - term and pay attention to the safety margin for short - term entry [8]. Treasury Bond Futures - The curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term. The money market is tight during the tax period, and the bond market is under pressure from the stock market. Inflation requires both expectation management and fundamental support [9]. 3.3 Black Metals Overall Situation - Policy is expected to be milder, and supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Seasonal demand is weak, but futures - cash arbitrage is active. Exports may be affected after mid - September [11]. Steel and Ore - Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel mill profits vary. Steel and ore prices will likely maintain a volatile trend, and the spot market trading is generally weak [13]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also downward pressure factors. It is advisable to short on rebounds [14]. Ferroalloys - The double - silicon futures market has seen a partial release of liquidity. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and pay attention to structural trading opportunities [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass should be observed for now. The supply of soda ash is increasing, and the glass market is weak [16]. ，3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Social zinc inventories are increasing, and processing fees are rising. Zinc prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and weak demand [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are tightening, and the price will be supported in the short term, showing a strong - side oscillation [19]. Industrial Silicon - The inventory of industrial silicon is expected to decline due to the resumption of polysilicon production. The price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [20]. Polysilicon - The policy progress dominates the price fluctuations. The supply - demand contradiction is still relatively loose, and the price will have wide - range oscillations [21]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Cotton - In the short term, cotton prices will be supported by low inventory, but there are concerns about consumption. In the long term, there is pressure from increased production [21][23]. Sugar - The expected increase in supply will suppress sugar prices. Domestically, the import of sugar is increasing, and attention should be paid to the holiday stocking demand [25][26]. Eggs - The egg market has a large supply pressure, and the price of far - month contracts may decline to repair the high valuation. The price may rise seasonally in the short term, but the increase is limited [28][29]. Apples - It is advisable to operate with a light - position positive spread strategy. The price of early - maturing apples varies by quality, and the new - season apple price may be related to the early - maturing and old - season apple prices [30]. Corn - It is recommended to short the 01 contract on rallies and go long on the starch profit. The corn market sentiment is bearish due to supply and demand pressures [31]. Red Dates - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot price of red dates in the Hebei market is stable, and the number of warehouse receipts has changed [32]. Pigs - It is advisable to be cautiously bearish on near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy. The short - term spot price will likely oscillate at the bottom [33][34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply of crude oil is expected to increase, and the price is likely to be weak. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early September [36]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. The current oil price has no main - line logic, and the supply - demand assessment is bearish [37]. Plastics - The market sentiment for plastics is weakening, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options or have a slightly bearish allocation [37]. Rubber - The rubber market has no obvious short - term contradictions. It is advisable to go long on dips with a stop - loss and be cautious when chasing high prices [39]. Methanol - Methanol prices will likely continue to oscillate weakly due to port inventory accumulation. It is recommended to have a bearish oscillation strategy [40]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is supported, while the futures price may be at a discount to the spot price in the future [41]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow the trend of crude oil. The asphalt market is in the off - season, and the inventory decline is slower than expected [42][43]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain will likely oscillate within a range. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on PX [44]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price of LPG is expected to be weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is likely to decline in the medium - long term [45]. Pulp - The pulp market is affected by inventory accumulation, but there is support from the price of broad - leaf pulp. It is recommended to observe the port inventory and spot trading [47]. Logs - The log market is expected to oscillate. It is advisable to observe and conduct appropriate hedging on rallies [48]. Urea - The urea futures price will likely have wide - range oscillations due to the combination of bearish fundamentals and bullish sentiment [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The curve steepening strategy continues to be dominant due to the loose funding situation and high risk appetite [5]. - The anti - involution process will continue, and the main line of anti - involution supply - side reform remains clear despite asset differentiation [7]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is relatively high, and the market will trade the interest rate cut before the actual cut, with the recession logic likely to be shelved after the cut [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Logic and Strategy - The funding situation is expected to remain loosely balanced, with a low probability of interest rate cuts and excessive liquidity injection by the central bank in the third quarter. The interest rate term structure may show a long - term steepening characteristic [7]. - The macro data shows that the real estate sector is under pressure, and fiscal efforts are the core force to hedge against the cyclical decline of real estate. The anti - involution process is expected to continue, and the policy tolerance is relatively large [7]. - The US economic data shows signs of weakening, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high. The market will trade the interest rate cut before the actual cut, increasing risk appetite and weakening the US dollar [7]. - The bond market has seen a significant decline, with long - term bonds falling more than short - term bonds, and the curve is continuously steepening. The strategy is to consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curve structure [7]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes - The yield of Chinese bonds has rebounded by 3bp, and the yield of US bonds has increased by 5bp. The global equity market has continued to strengthen, and the commodity market has shown volatile and differentiated trends, with crude oil significantly weakening [9]. 3.3 Recent Macro Data Analysis and Review - Domestic data: In July, the foreign trade data slightly exceeded expectations. Exports to ASEAN maintained high growth, and the growth rate of exports to South Korea rebounded. The CPI was at a low level, and the PPI remained unchanged. The PMI data was lower than expected, and the economy showed a marginal decline [20]. - Overseas data: The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI was lower than expected and the previous value, indicating a weakening of the US service industry. The US labor market has shown a secondary weakening, and if inflation does not continue to decline, the US economy may face stagflation [20]. 3.4 Funding Situation Analysis and Bond Futures and Spot Indicator Monitoring - The central bank's OMO operations had a stable withdrawal, and funds smoothly passed through the tax period. DR001 rose to around 1.4% due to tax payment factors. In July, the net injection of the 3 - month repurchase operation was 300 billion yuan, and the 6 - month operation was a flat - volume hedge, with a total net injection of 300 billion yuan [7][33]. - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report added the statement of "preventing idle funds" and deleted the statement of "resuming treasury bond trading operations opportunistically". The central bank is less likely to cut interest rates and inject excessive liquidity in the third quarter, and the probability of maintaining a loose funding situation is high [7][33]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures and Spot Indicator Monitoring - Not provided in the content 3.6 Medium - Term Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring of the Macroeconomy - Not provided in the content 3.7 Long - Wave Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring of the Macroeconomy - Not provided in the content

Report Summary on August 18, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Based on Fundamental Analysis**: - **Trend Long**: Crude oil, asphalt, caustic soda, liquefied petroleum gas, alumina, lithium carbonate, eggs, aluminum, urea, ten - year treasury bonds, ethylene glycol, apples, thirty - year treasury bonds, red dates, corn, five - year treasury bonds, short - fiber, CSI 1000 index futures, soda ash, PTA, live pigs, p - xylene, plastic, SSE 50 index futures, methanol, CSI 500 index futures, log, sugar, two - year treasury bonds, CSI 300 index futures, pulp, glass, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, coke, hot - rolled coil, rebar, iron ore, cotton, cotton yarn, coking coal, industrial silicon [1] - **Trend Short**: Not specified in a clear group, but implied negative trends for some based on analysis - **Based on Quantitative Indicators**: - **Bearish**: Shanghai copper, corn, soybean No. 2, glass, rapeseed meal, rubber, sugar [4] - **Sideways**: Shanghai gold, Shanghai tin, palm oil, Shanghai zinc, manganese silicon, hot - rolled coil, rebar, plastic, PTA, PVC, coke, polypropylene, coking coal, rapeseed oil, corn starch, methanol, soybean oil, soybean meal, Shanghai lead [4] - **Bullish**: Zhengzhou cotton, Shanghai silver, eggs, Shanghai aluminum, soybean No. 1, iron ore [4] 2. Core Views - **Macroeconomic**: China's July economic data showed mixed performance, with some indicators fluctuating. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Globally, the US economy has signs of recovery in consumption, but inflation expectations are rising, and geopolitical factors such as US - Russia relations and trade policies are affecting the market [8][9] - **Financial Futures**: For stock index futures, a long - term buy - on - dips strategy is recommended, while short - term entry requires attention to safety margins. For treasury bond futures, a strategy of steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curves is considered [12][13] - **Black Metals**: Steel and ore prices are expected to remain volatile. Coking coal and coke prices may enter a high - level consolidation phase. For ferroalloys, a strategy of going long on the spread between ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is proposed. For soda ash and glass, a short - selling strategy for soda ash and a wait - and - see approach for glass are recommended [16][17][18][19] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Aluminum prices are expected to be slightly bullish, while alumina prices may be slightly bearish. Lithium carbonate prices will be in a wide - range consolidation. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices will be volatile, mainly driven by policy and supply - demand factors. Cotton prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Sugar prices are restricted by supply increases. Egg prices may have a short - term seasonal rise but with limited upside. Apple prices are recommended for light - position positive spreads. Corn prices are recommended to short the far - month 01 contract. Red date prices are recommended for a wait - and - see approach. Live pig prices are recommended to be short - sold cautiously for near - month contracts [22][23][24][25][27][29][32][34][35][36] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to be bearish due to supply increases. Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil. Plastic prices are expected to be bearish. Methanol prices will be in a weak - side consolidation. Caustic soda futures have upward momentum but limited upside. Asphalt prices will follow crude oil. Polyester industry chain products will be in a range - bound consolidation. Liquefied petroleum gas prices are expected to be bearish. Pulp prices will be volatile. Log prices are recommended for short - term observation. Urea prices are expected to open high and then fluctuate widely with an upward shift in the center [39][40][41][43][44][45][46][47] 3. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic Information - **Domestic**: The July economic data showed that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year. From January to July, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, while real estate development investment decreased by 12%. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The production of raw coal decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, while the production of crude oil and natural gas increased [8][9] - **International**: The US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August declined unexpectedly. The US government plans to impose tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors. The US and Russia held a joint press conference, and the US expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports [9][10] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A long - term buy - on - dips strategy is recommended, considering the market's overall trend and the impact of economic data. Short - term entry requires attention to safety margins [12] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: A strategy of steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curves is considered, based on the central bank's monetary policy and inflation expectations [13][14] Black Metals - **Steel and Ore**: Prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by policy trends, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. The policy is relatively mild, the supply is strong, and the demand is in a seasonal weak period [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level consolidation phase. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short - term, while the demand from steel mills provides support, but there are also factors that may put pressure on prices [17] - **Ferroalloys**: A strategy of going long on the spread between ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is proposed. The short - term supply pressure is released, but the medium - term supply pressure is increasing [18] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, a short - selling strategy is recommended, as the supply is at a high level and the inventory pressure is large. For glass, a wait - and - see approach is recommended, considering the weakening of the spot market [19][20] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to be slightly bullish due to the expected increase in demand in the peak season and the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Alumina prices may be slightly bearish due to high production and supply [22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices will be in a wide - range consolidation, supported by the short - term supply - demand gap [23] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon prices will be volatile, mainly affected by the复产 of leading manufacturers and the demand from the polysilicon industry. Polysilicon prices will be mainly driven by policy and supply - demand relationships [24][25] - **Cotton**: Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the long - term, affected by factors such as downstream demand, supply expectations, and international trade policies [27][28] - **Sugar**: Prices are restricted by the expected increase in supply, but there may be opportunities for short - covering due to holiday - related demand [29][30][31] - **Eggs**: The market has a large divergence, and the price may have a short - term seasonal rise but with limited upside due to large production capacity [32][33] - **Apples**: A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended, considering the price performance of early - maturing apples and the inventory situation of old - season apples [34] - **Corn**: A short - selling strategy for the far - month 01 contract is recommended, as the market sentiment is bearish due to supply and demand pressures [35] - **Red Dates**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended, paying attention to the weather in the production area and the sales and price changes in the sales area [36] - **Live Pigs**: A cautious short - selling strategy for near - month contracts is recommended. The short - term price rebound is not sustainable, and the price will mainly fluctuate at the bottom [36][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices are expected to be bearish due to the supply increase from OPEC+ and the potential impact of geopolitical factors [39] - **Fuel Oil**: Prices will follow crude oil, affected by factors such as power generation demand in the Middle East, shipping weakness, and inventory changes [40] - **Plastic**: Prices are expected to be bearish due to large supply and high inventory [40][41] - **Methanol**: Prices will be in a weak - side consolidation, as the port inventory is increasing while the inland supply is relatively tight [41][43] - **Caustic Soda**: Futures have upward momentum but limited upside, supported by the increase in the purchase price of liquid caustic soda by Shandong alumina enterprises [43] - **Asphalt**: Prices will follow crude oil, and the current fundamentals are in a seasonal off - peak period [44] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Products will be in a range - bound consolidation, mainly affected by the upstream crude oil price and the overall market sentiment [45] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Prices are expected to be bearish due to abundant supply and weak demand [45] - **Pulp**: Prices will be volatile, mainly affected by inventory changes and market sentiment [46] - **Log**: Prices are recommended for short - term observation, affected by capital flow and market supply [46] - **Urea**: Prices are expected to open high and then fluctuate widely with an upward shift in the center, influenced by the potential positive factors from India's urea import tender and market expectations [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the PVC industry, the current upstream PVC price continues to decline, the caustic soda price slightly increases, and the comprehensive profit improves. The downstream demand is weak, and the export order volume slightly deteriorates this week. The strategy suggests appropriate participation in cash - futures arbitrage, a slightly bearish unilateral allocation, a 9 - 1 reverse spread for the inter - month strategy, and continuing to sell the V2509 out - of - the - money call option strategy [10]. - For the caustic soda industry, the upstream manufacturers slightly increase prices, and there are many maintenance plans in the future, with a slight decline in production. The downstream main alumina procurement price slightly increases, and the delivery volume remains at a low level, providing a slight boost to the price. The strategy advises being cautious about the callback risk for the unilateral strategy, and there is no specific suggestion for the cash - futures, inter - month, and option strategies [105]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market 3.1.1 Spot Market - This week, the total PVC output is 48.11 tons, a slight increase from last week. Next week, due to many maintenance devices, the output is expected to drop to around 46.85 tons. The export signing volume continues to decrease this week, and the export volume next month is expected to be slightly lower than expected. The apparent demand this week is 43.71 tons, higher than the expected value. The inventory accumulates by 0.15 tons this week, and it may continue to accumulate next week [6]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The basis fluctuates with little change. The 9 - 1 spread fluctuates weakly. The export profit improves as the domestic PVC price continues to decline while the overseas price remains stable [8][9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The production profit of most PVC production methods shows a downward trend, while the export profit improves. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong turns from negative to positive [9]. 3.1.4 Supply and Production Profit - The total PVC output shows a certain trend of change, and the production profit of different production methods varies. The production profit of some methods such as imported ethylene method decreases, while the profit of some export methods improves [9]. 3.1.5 Import and Export - The export volume remains stable this week, but the signing volume decreases. The export profit improves due to the decline in domestic prices and stable overseas prices [6][9]. 3.1.6 Demand - The downstream start - up rate is still weak, and the trading is mainly concentrated among cash - futures traders. The domestic demand is not strong [10]. 3.1.7 Inventory - The total inventory accumulates slightly this week, and the inventory of upstream manufacturers decreases, while the inventory of middle - stream traders increases. If the domestic demand remains weak, the inventory accumulation speed may accelerate [6]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Market 3.2.1 Spot Market - This week, the total caustic soda output is 81.92 tons, a decrease from last week. Next week, the output is expected to continue to increase. The export volume remains stable, and the apparent demand is 78.42 tons this week. The national inventory slightly decreases this week, and it may continue to decrease next week if the apparent demand remains the same [101]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis weakens, and the inter - month spread shows a certain trend of change. The 1 - 5 spread has a certain change trend, and the overall performance needs to be observed [104]. 3.2.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong turns positive, mainly due to the increase in the caustic soda price. The export profit of caustic soda strengthens [104]. 3.2.4 Supply and Production Profit - The caustic soda output is at a high level, and the production profit improves due to the increase in the caustic soda price and the stability of liquid chlorine [104]. 3.2.5 Import and Export - The import and export volumes remain stable, and the export profit strengthens [101][104]. 3.2.6 Demand - The main alumina procurement price slightly increases, and the delivery volume remains at a low level, providing a slight boost to the price [105]. 3.2.7 Inventory - The total inventory of caustic soda decreases slightly this week, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda decreases while the inventory of flake caustic soda increases slightly [101].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the polypropylene market have changed little and are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. The strategy suggests a weak and volatile mindset, guarding against callback risks, and a strategy of selling call options [1][10] Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Main Contradictions - Not provided in the document 2. Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation Supply - This week's production met expectations, with few new maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase slightly. This week's production was 783,100 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last week. In the next two weeks, it is expected to reach 815,500 tons and 844,200 tons respectively. The maintenance loss this week was 155,000 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from last week, and it is expected to be 0 in the next two weeks [6] - In June, exports were 235,300 tons and imports were 243,300 tons, meeting expectations. The weekly average import and export volumes remained stable this week, with imports at 75,000 tons and exports at 37,500 tons [6] Demand - This week, there was a slight inventory build - up. Next week, it is expected to continue to de - stock slightly, and domestic apparent demand will slightly decline. Next week, the seasonal apparent demand is expected to be around 820,000 tons [6] - Downstream replenishment willingness has declined as downstream enterprises had replenished a lot before and are currently digesting inventory [10] 3. Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The basis as a whole showed a trend of fluctuating and strengthening, with limited basis opportunities. The East China basis weakened by 20 points, the North China basis remained unchanged, and the South China basis weakened by 20 points [9] Spread - The inter - month spread fluctuated. The 1 - 5 inter - month spread decreased by 1 point, the 5 - 9 inter - month spread decreased by 2 points, and the 9 - 1 inter - month spread increased by 3 points [9] - The spread between different varieties also fluctuated. The spread between copolymer and draw decreased by 30 points, the spread between injection and draw increased by 20 points, and the spread between fiber and draw decreased by 50 points [9] - The spread between PP and 3MA strengthened. The multi - PP and short - MA strategy had previously been recommended to take profit and exit the market, and there are no suitable opportunities in the short term [9] - The LL - PP spread fluctuated this week and is expected to strengthen slightly later [9] 4. Summary and Outlook Market Outlook - The cost side fluctuated and strengthened this week, and it is expected that there will be little change in the cost side next week. The profit of upstream production processes is generally weakening, and the import profit is still inverted [7] - The upstream is in the peak maintenance period, but the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, with a focus on active shipment. The mid - stream shipment situation has slightly deteriorated, and some spot - futures arbitrageurs have an opportunity to sell after the decline in the futures price [10] Strategies - The strategy suggests a weak and volatile mindset, guarding against callback risks, and a strategy of selling call options. The multi - PP and short - MA spread strategy had previously been recommended to take profit and exit the market [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the bullish sentiment in commodities has faded, and methanol has started to return to its fundamentals. Continuous inventory accumulation at ports has exerted significant pressure on the methanol futures market, causing the futures price to decline sharply. Methanol currently has high profits for upstream producers and low profits for downstream producers. After the sentiment fades and it returns to fundamentals, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, methanol is generally weak. After the sentiment fades, it is expected to enter a weakly fluctuating pattern. A weakly fluctuating approach is recommended [3][94]. - For the unilateral strategy, a weakly fluctuating approach is recommended, considering a strategy of selling call options. For the hedging strategy, it is advisable to wait and see [4][95]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. On Friday, the basis quote was around 09 - 5 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for paper goods in late September was 09 + 20 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Basis and Spread - Methanol basis quotes fluctuated weakly this week. The basis quote for paper goods in late September was around 09 + 20 yuan/ton [17]. - Methanol's coastal basis fluctuated this week. The inland basis also fluctuated. The inland market prices fluctuated this week, and the market prices in the northwest region also fluctuated [26][37]. - The price difference between East China and inland regions of methanol fluctuated weakly [47]. - The PP - 3MA spread rebounded this week. A strategy of going long on PP and short on MA can be considered and a small amount can be held [61][63]. 3. Industry Chain Profits - There were many new methanol production units under maintenance, and the methanol production capacity utilization rate weakened slightly. Many maintenance units resumed production, and methanol production began to increase [69][73]. - The dimethyl ether production capacity utilization rate fluctuated. The formaldehyde production capacity utilization rate rebounded with fluctuations. The production capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest region fluctuated at a high level [78][82]. - This week, the production capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins plants fluctuated, and MTO profits continued to recover [85]. 4. Market Expectations - Recently, the bullish sentiment in commodities has faded, and methanol has started to return to its fundamentals. Continuous inventory accumulation at ports has exerted significant pressure on the methanol futures market, causing the futures price to decline sharply. Methanol currently has high profits for upstream producers and low profits for downstream producers. After the sentiment fades and it returns to fundamentals, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, methanol is generally weak. After the sentiment fades, it is expected to enter a weakly fluctuating pattern. A weakly fluctuating approach is recommended [3][94]. - For the unilateral strategy, a weakly fluctuating approach is recommended, considering a strategy of selling call options. For the hedging strategy, it is advisable to wait and see [4][95].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The central bank conducts large - scale reverse repurchase operations to inject liquidity, and the market expects the central bank to increase the volume of MLF roll - over. The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is frustrated due to high PPI data [10]. - For stock index futures, consider taking profits on the covered strategy and pay attention to July's macro data. For Treasury bond futures, there may be a short - term rebound, and the curve - steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term [12][13]. - Steel and ore prices are expected to remain volatile, and double - coking prices may enter a high - level shock stage. For ferroalloys, consider long - short spreads or reverse spreads, and short on rebounds [14][15][17]. - For soda ash and glass, maintain a short - on - rallies strategy for soda ash and stay on the sidelines for glass. For non - ferrous metals and new materials, aluminum prices may be weakly volatile, and alumina prices may be strong in the short - term but weak in the long - term. Zinc prices are expected to weaken, while lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon prices will be in a wide - range shock [18][20][21]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices may be shorted on rallies in the long - term, sugar prices are restricted by increasing supply, egg prices may have limited upside during the Mid - Autumn Festival, and apple prices can be long - short spread. Corn prices can be shorted on the far - month contract, and hog prices can be shorted cautiously on the near - month contract [27][30][33]. - For energy and chemicals, crude oil may enter a supply - surplus pattern, and fuel oil and asphalt prices follow crude oil. Plastic prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and rubber prices may have limited downside. Methanol prices are expected to be weak, and LPG prices are prone to fall [40][42][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank conducts 500 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations on August 15, and the cumulative outright reverse repurchase operations this month have exceeded the maturing amount by 30 billion yuan. The market expects the central bank to increase the volume of 30 billion yuan of MLF roll - over [10]. - The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is frustrated as the US July PPI soars to 3.3% year - on - year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%. San Francisco Fed President Daly and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee oppose large - scale interest - rate cuts [10]. - Ping An Insurance increases its holdings of CPIC H - shares, reaching the threshold for a mandatory public announcement. This year, there has been a third wave of insurance companies' share - buying sprees [10]. - US Treasury Secretary Yellen clarifies that she is not pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, while the number of continued jobless claims decreased to 1.953 million [11]. Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to take profits on the covered strategy and pay attention to July's macro data. On Thursday, the A - share market rose and then fell, with over 4,600 stocks declining. The market turnover increased to 2.31 trillion yuan. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations have a net injection of 30 billion yuan, and the market is affected by insurance companies' share - buying and US PPI data [12]. Treasury Bond Futures - There may be a short - term rebound, and the curve - steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term. The money market was loose in the morning and tightened slightly in the afternoon. The bond market was under pressure when the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3,700 points. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations have a net injection of 30 billion yuan, and attention should be paid to the MLF roll - over [13]. Steel and Ore - From a policy perspective, it is relatively mild. From a supply - demand perspective, the contradiction is not prominent. The demand is seasonally weak, but the mid - term supply - demand is balanced. The supply is expected to remain strong, and steel and ore prices are expected to remain volatile. The prices of steel products and imported iron ore have fluctuated, with the iron ore trading volume decreasing by 31.71% on a daily basis and increasing by 15.72% on a weekly basis [14][15]. Coal and Coking - Double - coking prices may enter a high - level shock stage. The strict inspection of coal mine over - production and coke - enterprise production restrictions have led to price adjustments. The supply of coking coal may be tight in the short - term, but the possibility of a decline in steel mill's molten iron output and sufficient imported Mongolian coal supply still put pressure on prices [15][16]. Ferroalloys - The current spot - futures pressure of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is high, but the basis has not widened significantly during the price decline. The steel - tendering price is high. Consider long - short spreads (ferrosilicon - ferromanganese) or reverse spreads of ferromanganese's near - far months. Short on rebounds if there is an upward movement [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, maintain a short - on - rallies strategy and exit flexibly if the positive feedback continues. For glass, stay on the sidelines. The production of soda ash has increased, and the inventory is under pressure. The inventory of glass has increased, and the spot market is weak [18]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Aluminum prices may be weakly volatile in the short - term due to weak demand in the off - season, but may rise in the long - term with the approaching peak season. Alumina prices may be strong in the short - term but weak in the long - term due to high supply and increasing inventory. Zinc prices are expected to weaken due to increasing inventory and supply. Lithium carbonate prices are supported by short - term supply - demand gaps and will be in a wide - range shock. Industrial silicon prices will be volatile, and polysilicon prices will be in a wide - range shock due to policy and supply - demand factors [20][21][22]. Agricultural Products - Cotton prices may be shorted on rallies in the long - term due to weak downstream demand and potential future production increases. Sugar prices are restricted by increasing supply, but attention should be paid to the Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking demand. Egg prices may have limited upside during the Mid - Autumn Festival due to large supply pressure. Apple prices can be long - short spread. Corn prices can be shorted on the far - month contract, and hog prices can be shorted cautiously on the near - month contract [27][30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil may enter a supply - surplus pattern, and attention should be paid to US sanctions on Russia and the peak - season demand. Fuel oil and asphalt prices follow crude oil. Plastic prices are expected to be weakly volatile. Rubber prices may have limited downside. Methanol prices are expected to be weak. LPG prices are prone to fall due to sufficient supply and weak demand [40][42][43]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp fundamentals are turning to inventory accumulation, which restricts the price, but there is still support from the price - holding and production - cut of broad - leaf pulp. Consider spread trading opportunities. Log prices are affected by capital, and short - term observation is recommended [51][52]. Urea - In a weak fundamental environment, urea futures prices are expected to be weak. The spot price may decline further over the weekend, with weak new orders and downstream rigid demand [52]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber prices are turning weakly volatile in the short - term, with limited downside. Consider short - term long - on - dips with a stop - loss and be cautious about chasing high prices [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report 1. **Macro - financial**: For stock index futures, consider buying on dips; for treasury bond futures, a steepening strategy can be considered. The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile, and double - coke prices may enter a high - level consolidation phase. For double - silicon, avoid chasing short positions without non - fundamental positive disturbances [14][15][16]. 2. **Non - ferrous and new materials**: Aluminum prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, while alumina prices may be strong in the short term but face supply surplus pressure in the long term. Zinc prices are expected to weaken after the macro influence fades [24][25]. 3. **Agricultural products**: For cotton, short - term watch and long - term short on rallies; for sugar, pay attention to short - covering opportunities during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking. For eggs, short on rallies for near - term contracts; for apples, use a light - position positive spread strategy; for corn, short on far - term contracts; for dates, stay on the sidelines; for pigs, be cautious and short on near - term contracts [30][33][35][37][39][40][41]. 4. **Energy and chemicals**: For crude oil, consider shorting on rallies; for fuel oil, it follows crude oil and has a complex fundamental situation; for plastics, expect limited rebound space; for rubber, it is slightly strong in the short term; for methanol, it will continue to be weakly volatile; for asphalt, it follows crude oil; for LPG, it is prone to fall and difficult to rise; for pulp, observe the inventory and trading volume; for logs, observe and consider hedging on rallies; for urea, the futures price is weak; for synthetic rubber, it is slightly strong in the short term [44][45][46][47][48][51][53][54][55][56][57]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information 1. In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9% [10]. 2. Four departments including the central bank explained two discount policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal - financial cooperation to boost consumption [10]. 3. In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [10]. 4. Market supervision and industry and information technology departments plan to strengthen the management of intelligent connected new energy vehicles [11]. 5. The US Treasury Secretary called for a new round of interest rate cuts, suggesting that the US interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level [11]. 6. The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the daily position - opening limit and handling fee rate for coking coal futures contracts [12]. Macro - financial Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Consider buying on dips. The A - share market rose on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high since December 2021. However, the on - balance - sheet new RMB loans turned negative in July [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Consider a steepening strategy. The money market is loose, and the bond market first weakened and then strengthened. The long - end bonds can be considered to maintain a weakly volatile and bearish view, and the steepening of the yield curve is still relatively advantageous [15][16]. Black Metals - **Steel and Ore**: Policies are becoming milder, supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, and prices are expected to be volatile. Steel mill profits are mixed, and iron ore prices are also volatile [16][17][18]. - **Double - coke**: Prices may enter a high - level consolidation phase. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short term, but there is also downward pressure [18][19]. - **Double - silicon**: The current price is in a reasonable range, and the medium - term supply - demand logic is weak. Avoid chasing short positions without non - fundamental positive disturbances [19]. Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term due to weak demand in the off - season but may rise in the future. Alumina prices may be strong in the short term but face supply surplus pressure in the long term [24]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and zinc prices are expected to weaken after the macro influence fades [25]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile, but there is pressure from industrial hedging [26][27]. - **Polysilicon**: In the short term, it may return to the contradiction between fundamentals and warehouse receipts, with wide - range fluctuations [28]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Short - term watch and long - term short on rallies due to low downstream demand and new crop production pressure [30][31][32]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar stocks are low, but the increase in processed sugar may restrict prices. Pay attention to short - covering opportunities during stocking [33][34][35]. - **Eggs**: The Mid - Autumn Festival peak season is approaching, but the supply pressure is large. Short on rallies for near - term contracts and consider a short 10 - long 12 spread strategy [35][36]. - **Apples**: Use a light - position positive spread strategy. Pay attention to the price changes of early - maturing apples and new - season Fuji apples [37]. - **Corn**: Short on far - term contracts. The market sentiment is bearish, but there is support at the bottom [38][39]. - **Dates**: Stay on the sidelines as the spot market in Hebei is weak [40]. - **Pigs**: Be cautious and short on near - term contracts. The supply pressure is high, and pay attention to the development of African swine fever [40][41]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Consider shorting on rallies as it is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: Follows crude oil. The current fundamental situation is complex, with factors such as power demand in the Middle East and low - sulfur fuel oil demand affecting it [45]. - **Plastic**: The rebound space is expected to be limited, and it is recommended to prevent callback risks [46]. - **Rubber**: Slightly strong in the short term, but be cautious when chasing highs [47]. - **Methanol**: Continue to be weakly volatile due to the contradiction between tight inland supply and loose port supply [48][49]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price in Shandong has support, but the futures price has limited upward space [50]. - **Asphalt**: Follows crude oil, and its own fundamentals are in the off - season, with slow inventory reduction [51]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Unilateral prices are expected to follow the cost downward. Consider a strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA [52]. - **LPG**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - long term, making the price prone to fall [53]. - **Pulp**: The market trading has improved, and the price has followed the increase. Observe the inventory and trading volume [54]. - **Logs**: The price is affected by capital, and it is recommended to observe and consider hedging on rallies [55]. - **Urea**: The futures price is weak due to weak fundamentals [56]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Slightly strong in the short term, be cautious when chasing highs [57].