中泰期货尿素周报 ——尿素生产成本上移 尿素出口再度放开 2025 . 1 1 . 9 中泰期货研究所 ：郭庆 从业资格号：F3049926 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0016007 （数据更新时间截止至每周五23：59） 目 录 CONTEN T S 0 1 综述 0 2 价格 0 3 供应 0 4 需求 综述 01 | 产业链 | | 2025年10月31日-11 | 2025年11月7日-11 | 2025年11月14日-11 | 2025年11月21日-11月27 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 月6日 | 月13日 | 月20日 | 日 | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量： | 19.35 | 19.86 | 20.00 | 20.14 | 上周新增1家企业停车，停车企业恢复4家，本 周预计1家企业计划检修，3家停车企业恢复生 | | | 万吨 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 产(预估数据来自隆众资讯） | | | | | | | | 2025年第45周(20251031-1106)，复合肥本周期产能利 ...

去库不及预期，继续偏弱震荡 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 近期甲醇港口库存略微累库，盘面仍受限于偏高的库存，价格偏弱运行。基本面环比改善不明显，甲醇 自身供应压力较大，后期伊朗是否限气影响产量以及时间节点不好预测，还需要进一步观察甲醇进口货到港 情况。 甲醇近期围绕伊朗货到港是否顺利等因素的博弈比较激烈，导致甲醇行情波动较大。甲醇现在最大的压 力是库存比较高，但是后期有冬季限气影响产量等利多因素，不宜过分看空，建议暂时偏弱震荡思路。 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2025年11月9日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 单边策略：震荡偏弱思路，等待反弹驱动出现后少量偏多配置。 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊朗甲醇出口受阻 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 现货市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证 ...

供需压力仍大，继续偏弱震荡 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年11月09日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 1、聚丙烯综述 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国产量 | 78.92 | 79.65 | 0.74 | 83.37 | 83.51 | 本周检修装置较少，产量小幅度增 加，未来两周装置检修减少，产量可 | | 产量 | | | | | | | 能继续增加。 | | （万吨） | 检修损失量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, this week's production increased slightly, with some previously shut - down plants resuming production. Next week, production is expected to increase slightly. Export orders increased slightly this week. Domestic demand is weak, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low. The overall profit of the upstream continues to deteriorate, and the mid - stream mainly focuses on arbitrage operations. Suggested strategies include paying attention to spot - futures arbitrage opportunities, short - term bearish allocation after rebounds, and reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread [6][10]. - For caustic soda, this week's production increased slightly due to the resumption of many shut - down plants, and production is expected to remain high next week. The national inventory decreased slightly this week and is expected to increase next week. The profit of caustic soda plants with external sales of liquid chlorine has worsened, and the comprehensive profit of enterprises with supporting PVC has continued to decline. Suggested strategies include reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread [106][109][110]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC 3.1.1 Spot Market - PVC production this week was 49.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.52 million tons. The export volume remained at 5.75 million tons per week on average. The apparent demand was 45.19 million tons, slightly higher than expected. The total inventory decreased by 0.23 million tons. Some related product prices changed, such as a 70 - yuan increase in the price of Shaanxi semi - coke and a 50 - yuan decrease in the price of Wuhai calcium carbide [6][7]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The basis fluctuated weakly, with the East China calcium carbide method basis changing from - 81 to - 70. The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated weakly, changing from - 292 to - 303 [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of the upstream continued to deteriorate. For example, the calcium carbide production profit in Shaanxi decreased from - 454 to - 510 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased from - 359 to - 470 yuan/ton. The export profit improved slightly, with the theoretical export profit to India increasing from 821 to 897 yuan/ton [9]. 3.1.4 Market Expectation - Next week, PVC production is expected to reach 49.95 million tons, and the apparent demand is expected to be 42.72 million tons. The inventory is expected to increase slightly [6]. 3.2 Caustic Soda 3.2.1 Spot Market - Caustic soda production this week was 83.53 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 million tons. The export volume remained at 6.52 million tons per week on average. The apparent demand was 78.25 million tons. The national inventory decreased by 1.22 million tons (in terms of 100% caustic soda). The price of Shandong liquid chlorine decreased significantly, from 250 to 1 yuan/ton [106][107]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of 32% caustic soda weakened, with the 01 - contract basis changing from 34 to 32. The 1 - 5 spread was recommended for reverse arbitrage, and the spread changed from - 173 to - 169 [109]. 3.2.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The profit of caustic soda plants with external sales of liquid chlorine worsened, and the comprehensive profit of enterprises with supporting PVC continued to decline. For example, the comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased from - 359 to - 470 yuan/ton [109]. 3.2.4 Market Expectation - Next week, caustic soda production is expected to be 85.76 million tons, and the apparent demand is expected to be 77.53 million tons. The inventory is expected to increase [106].

Group 1: Overall Inventory Information - Total inventory this week is 3,504,599 tons, compared to 3,654,107.9 tons last week, with a decrease of 149,509 tons. The出库 is 534,147 tons and the入库 is 384,638 tons [2] Group 2: Inventory by Country - Gabon: This week's inventory is 218,300 tons, a decrease of 63,100 tons from last week, accounting for 6.23% of the total [2] - Australia: This week's inventory is 67,300 tons, accounting for 10.31% of the total [2] - South Africa: This week's inventory is 361,198 tons, compared to 365,279 tons last week, with a decrease of 4,081 tons. The出库 is 71,381 tons [2] - Ghana: This week's inventory is 229,878 tons, last week it was 246,359 tons, with a decrease of 42,074 tons. It accounts for 70.30% of the total [2] - Other: This week's inventory is 218,074.9 tons, compared to 152,477 tons last week, with an increase of 87,460 tons, accounting for 6.79% of the total [2] Group 3: Graphical Data - There are graphs showing the入库,出库, and inventory of manganese ore in Tianjin Port for different types including oxidation ore (Gabon + Australian ore), South African semi - carbonate powder + block, and Ghanaian block ore from 2023 - 2025 [6]

General Information - Report Title: Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Dong Xueshan [2] - Qualification Number: F3075616 [2] - Trading Consultation Certificate Number: Z0018025 [2] Core Data Silicon Manganese - National weekly production: 20.19 million tons, a decrease of 5,845 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14.59% [3] - Inner Mongolia weekly production: 9.70 million tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.81% [3] - Ningxia weekly production: 4.75 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.47% [3] - Guangxi weekly production: 1.07 million tons, an increase of 455 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.99% [3] - Guizhou weekly production: 1.61 million tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 17.43% [3] - Yunnan weekly production: 0.99 million tons, a decrease of 6,160 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.64% [3] - Other regions weekly production: 2.07 million tons, a decrease of 140 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 24.09% [3] Silicon Iron - National weekly production: 11.41 million tons, an increase of 910 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.85% [3] - Inner Mongolia weekly production: 3.68 million tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.25% [3] - Ningxia weekly production: 2.98 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.22% [3] - Shaanxi weekly production: 1.84 million tons, an increase of 140 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.45% [3] - Qinghai weekly production: 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.82% [3] - Gansu weekly production: 1.18 million tons, an increase of 280 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.30% [3] - Other regions weekly production: 0.01 million tons, an increase of 1 ton from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.00% [3] Data Notes - The update date of the Steel Union terminal is every Thursday, and the data display date is Friday of the current week [6] - Data sources: Mysteel; compiled by Zhongtai Futures [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, some commodities are in a trend of short - selling, some are oscillating with a bearish or bullish bias, and some are in a neutral oscillation state. Based on quantitative indicators, commodities are classified as bearish, oscillating, and bullish [2][4]. - The A - share market shows a unilateral upward trend, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising. The bond market still has upward momentum. The black market maintains a bearish view in the medium - term (winter). Different commodities in other sectors have their own trends and investment suggestions [10][11][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - China aims to achieve the goals of Hainan Free Trade Port construction, and the Ministry of Commerce responds to the issue of Nexperia. Chongqing adjusts its administrative divisions, and new stock indices are released. The polysilicon industry may undergo major integration, and China promotes international cooperation in new - energy storage. The US employment situation is severe, leading to an increased expectation of interest - rate cuts. Indonesia restricts nickel ore processing, Saudi Aramco cuts crude oil prices for Asia, and the US updates its critical minerals list [6][7][8]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The index weakens during the capital rotation. The A - share market rises unilaterally, and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December exceeds 70%. The fourth - quarter monetary policy is expected to be further loosened [10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The implementation of monetary policy intensification is in progress, and bonds still have upward momentum. The capital market is balanced and loose, and the market discusses the reform of public - fund fees. The symbolic significance of the central bank's bond - buying is more important than the actual scale [11]. Black Iron Ore and Steel - In the medium - term (winter), a bearish view is maintained. The market may return to fundamentals in the short - to - medium term. The winter market may rebound first and then decline, and the willingness to store steel for the winter may be affected. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is acceptable. The supply of molten iron remains high, and the valuation of steel products is at a low level [12][13]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate in the short term. The supply of coking coal may shrink in the short term, but the weakening demand for steel during the off - season may limit the price increase [15]. Ferroalloys - The black sector shows a short - term increase, but the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and short - selling at the upper limit of the range is advisable [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - High - level short positions should be held. The domestic zinc inventory decreases, and the zinc price oscillates at a high level. The downstream demand is cautious, and the global zinc price shows a downward trend [20]. Lithium Carbonate - The expected resumption of production of the Jianxiawo lithium mine may affect market sentiment, but the short - term supply - demand situation is still strong, and the price is expected to rise after the expected resumption of production [21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon oscillates within a range with no prominent supply - demand contradiction. Polysilicon also oscillates within a narrow range, with the lower limit supported by policy expectations and the upper limit restricted by the progress of capacity mergers [22]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The cotton price oscillates at a low level due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand. The domestic cotton price rebounds but is limited by the actual supply [26]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is bearish due to increasing supply and falling international sugar prices. However, the cost of domestic sugar production provides some support, and short - selling or waiting is recommended [28]. Eggs - The egg futures are strong due to the expectation of capacity reduction. The spot price may rise slightly in November, but the increase is expected to be limited. An oscillating trading strategy is recommended [30]. Apples - The apple price oscillates strongly. The acquisition of late - maturing Fuji apples is in the later stage, and the price is stable. The inventory is lower than last year [32]. Corn - The corn market has large differences in the futures market. The spot price rebounds, but the supply pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure in November and the release of policy - supported wheat [33]. Red Dates - Temporarily wait and see. The weakening of the spot market in the sales area affects the purchase price of new dates, and the futures market oscillates [34]. Pigs - The supply pressure of pigs continues, and the spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. Short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The oil price is expected to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and OPEC +'s measure to postpone production increase has limited support for the oil price [37]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows the oil price. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The focus of trading is the supply - side concerns after the sanctions on Russia [38]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to large supply pressure. However, the losses of production enterprises may provide some support [38][39]. Rubber - The rubber price rebounds due to weather influence. It is in the seasonal peak season, but there is still upward pressure. Appropriate reduction of short - call and short - put positions is recommended [42]. Synthetic Rubber - The short - selling positions in the synthetic rubber market are closed, and the price rebounds slightly. However, caution is still needed when going long, and the short - call strategy can be continued [43]. Methanol - The methanol market fluctuates greatly due to factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods, gas restrictions in Iran, and inventory reduction in China. The short - term contract is recommended to be traded with a bearish oscillation strategy, and the long - term contract can be slightly long - positioned after the emergence of a rebound driver [44][45]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is in an oversupply situation. The electricity price provides some support for the futures price. An oscillating trading strategy is recommended [46]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate with an enlarged amplitude. The oil price is in an oscillating state, the inventory reduction speed is expected to slow down, and geopolitical factors may increase the price volatility [46][47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain may be strong in the short term. The supply - reduction expectation of PX is increasing, and the prices of PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip follow the upward trend [48]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is difficult to exceed expectations. A bearish view is maintained in the medium - to - long term. The price of LPG is expected to weaken relative to crude oil next week [49]. Pulp - The pulp market is stable. The spot trading improves slightly, but the factory demand is difficult to increase significantly. Short - selling at a high level can be considered if the port inventory reduction continues [50]. Logs - The log market is bearish. The spot price decreases, and the inventory is expected to increase. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance [50]. Urea - The release of the fourth - batch of urea export quotas may boost the market sentiment in the short term. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the release of bullish sentiment [50][51][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a pattern of opening low and closing high, with the storage and new - energy sectors leading the gains. The domestic economic data in October is expected to face a decline in pressure, and the monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [9]. - For the black industry, the medium - term (winter) view remains to be bearish on rallies. The coal - coke prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the prices of iron alloys are recommended to be shorted on rallies in the medium - term [14][15][17]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, the demand for lithium carbonate continues to support the price, and the zinc price can be considered to be shorted on rallies. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to trade within a range [20][21][24]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton and sugar are under supply pressure, eggs may be strong in the short - term but the increase is limited, and the prices of other products such as corn, jujubes, and live pigs are affected by various factors and need attention [27][30][33]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the oil price is expected to fluctuate, and the prices of various chemical products such as plastics, rubber, and methanol are affected by factors such as supply and demand and cost, with different trends and trading suggestions [39][42][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China has announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including tariff adjustments and the relaxation of export controls on some US entities [6]. - The US Supreme Court is debating the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff measures, and the results may be announced in December. The US federal government's "shutdown" has broken the historical record, which may reduce the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter [6][8]. - The ADP employment and service industry PMI in the US in October were better than expected, which added uncertainty to the Fed's decision on whether to cut interest rates in December [8]. - Guizhou Moutai has launched a second - round share repurchase and announced a mid - year profit distribution plan. The scope of institutions participating in the stock repurchase and increase loan business is expected to expand [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market opened low and closed high, with the storage and new - energy sectors leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% to 3969.25 points, and the daily trading volume was 1.89 trillion yuan. The domestic economic data in October is expected to face a decline in pressure, and the monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [9]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and loose, and the price is stable. The treasury bond futures opened high and closed low, showing a seesaw effect with the A - share market. The symbolic meaning of the central bank's bond - buying is more positive than the actual scale, and the monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [11]. 3.4 Black Industry 3.4.1 Iron Ore and Steel - The spot prices of steel and iron ore fluctuated. The prices were affected by factors such as environmental protection restrictions and steel mill maintenance. In the medium - term, the winter market may show a pattern of first rising and then falling, and the steel price is expected to have limited rebound space. The medium - term view is to be bearish on rallies [12][13][14]. 3.4.2 Coal - Coke - The short - term iron - making volume has a downward space, and the coal - coke prices continue to fluctuate at a high level. In the short - term, the supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, but the weakening demand for steel during the off - season will restrict the price [15]. 3.4.3 Ferroalloys - Affected by the price increase of动力煤 and lump coal, the cost of ferrosilicon is expected to increase, but the black sector is weak, and the price is recommended to be shorted on rallies in the medium - term [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials 3.5.1 Zinc - The zinc price fluctuated. The import of refined zinc in China decreased in September. The downstream demand is cautious, and the price can be considered to be shorted on rallies [20]. 3.5.2 Lithium Carbonate - The demand for lithium carbonate continues to increase, and the supply increase is less than the demand increase. Although the expected resumption of production of the Jiaxiawo lithium mine affects the market sentiment, the strong demand in the short - term still supports the price [21]. 3.5.3 Industrial Silicon - The contradiction of industrial silicon is not prominent. It is affected by the macro - environment and coal prices. It is expected to trade within a range, and small - position long positions can be tried at the lower end of the range [24]. 3.5.4 Polysilicon - The spot trading of polysilicon is in a stalemate. The market is affected by policies and fundamentals, and it is expected to trade within a range [25]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 Cotton - The supply of cotton is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. 3.6.2 Sugar - The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic sugar price is affected by factors such as import cost and domestic production cost. It is recommended to operate with a short - selling strategy or wait and see [30]. 3.6.3 Eggs - The futures price of eggs is strong due to the expectation of "capacity reduction". The spot price may be strong in November, but the increase is limited. It is recommended to operate according to the range - trading idea [33]. 3.6.4 Apples - The acquisition of apples is in the middle - late stage, and the price is stable. The market is expected to be strong with fluctuations [35]. 3.6.5 Corn - The spot price of corn has rebounded to some extent, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. 3.6.6 Jujubes - The spot price of jujubes in the sales area is weak, which affects the new - jujube ordering price. It is recommended to wait and see [37]. 3.6.7 Live Pigs - The supply pressure of live pigs continues, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [38]. 3.7 Energy and Chemical Industry 3.7.1 Crude Oil - The US commercial crude oil inventory has increased, and the oil price is under pressure. The OPEC+ measure to delay the increase in production in the first quarter has limited impact, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [39]. 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price fluctuates with the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat. The short - term trading focus is on the impact of sanctions on the supply [41]. 3.7.3 Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a bearish - on - rallies trading idea [42]. 3.7.4 Rubber - The raw material price in the Yunnan region of China has slightly decreased, and the price in Thailand is firm. The fundamental situation is still slightly weak, and it is recommended to hold short - call option strategies [43]. 3.7.5 Synthetic Rubber - The price of synthetic rubber is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly due to the decline in raw material prices. It is recommended to be cautious about going long [44]. 3.7.6 Methanol - The methanol market fluctuates greatly due to factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods and potential plant maintenance. The supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to be bearish on rallies in the near - term and wait for a rebound in the far - term [46]. 3.7.7 Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is weak, and the supply exceeds demand. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to adopt a range - trading idea [48]. 3.7.8 Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to have a larger fluctuation range due to factors such as the change in oil price focus, production increase, and geopolitical risks [48]. 3.7.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain lacks a clear driving direction and is expected to follow the cost - end movement. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity of ethylene glycol [50]. 3.7.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is affected by different factors. The price is expected to be bearish in the medium - long term [52]. 3.7.11 Pulp - The pulp spot price is stable, and the market has rigid demand. The price is expected to be supported but has limited upside space. It is recommended to establish long positions at low prices after observing the port inventory and spot trading [53]. 3.7.12 Logs - The spot trading of logs is weak, and the supply pressure exists. The price is expected to be under pressure [54]. 3.7.13 Urea - The spot price of urea has increased, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading idea [55].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, various commodities are categorized into trend - bearish, oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish trends. Based on quantitative indicators, commodities are classified as bearish, oscillating, and bullish [5][9]. - Macroeconomic news includes Sino - Russian cooperation, semiconductor supply issues, central bank liquidity operations, and service trade data [11]. - In the macro - financial sector, stock index futures are advised to focus on rotation strategies, and bond futures are expected to rise. The black market in the medium - term (winter) maintains a bearish view on rallies. Other sectors such as non - ferrous metals, agriculture, energy, and chemicals also have corresponding investment outlooks [14][18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic News - Sino - Russian cooperation emphasizes expanding mutual investment and exploring new cooperation areas [11]. - The issue of Anshi Semiconductor's supply disruption is causing turmoil in the global semiconductor supply chain, and China will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises [11]. - The central bank has resumed treasury bond trading, and will conduct a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation [11]. - The list of the first - and second - tier benchmark libraries for public fund performance comparison has been released, mainly including stock indices [12]. - China welcomes Goldman Sachs to continue investing in China to promote Sino - US economic and trade relations [12]. - In the first three quarters, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 59362.2 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 7.6% [12]. - The US federal government is in a shutdown, and the US Supreme Court will review Trump's tariff policy [12]. 2. Macroeconomic and Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - A - shares are in a shrinking adjustment, with the PMI falling to 49%. The central bank's bond - buying operations have symbolic significance, and the fourth - quarter monetary policy is expected to be further loosened [14]. Bond Futures - The monetary policy is being implemented, and bonds still have upward momentum. The central bank's bond - buying operations have symbolic bullishness [15]. Black Market (Screw and Ore) - In the medium - term (winter), a bearish view on rallies is maintained. Although the export is resilient and the risk of short - term negative feedback is reduced, the winter storage willingness is affected, and the steel price rebound space is limited [17][18]. Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate in the short term. The supply may shrink in the short term, but the potential negative feedback risk from the steel market will limit the price rebound [20]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to buy at the lower end of the oscillation range. For silicomanganese, a bearish view on rallies remains [21][23]. 3. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum can be short - sold on rallies, and alumina can be short - sold in the short term and observed in the medium - to - long term [27]. Zinc - Short - sell on rallies as the domestic inventory slightly increases and the market is cautious [28]. Lithium Carbonate - The price is currently weakly oscillating under the influence of the resumption of production expectations, but strong demand will support it in the future [30]. Industrial Silicon - It oscillates within a range, and small - position long positions or selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered at the lower end of the range [31]. Polysilicon - It oscillates within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to policy expectation disturbances at the lower end of the range [32]. 4. Agricultural Products Cotton - A bearish view on oscillations at low levels is maintained due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand [34]. Sugar - A bearish view on oscillations is maintained. Globally, there is an oversupply of sugar, and domestically, there are both supply and demand pressures [36]. Eggs - The futures are currently strong but may face pressure. The spot price may be slightly strong in November, and an oscillating trading strategy is recommended [38]. Apples - The market is oscillating. Attention should be paid to price trends, storage progress, and purchasing intentions [40]. Corn - The market is divided, and it is recommended to wait and see. There is still supply pressure, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure in November and the release of policy wheat [41][42]. Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see as the spot price in the sales area is weakening [43]. Pigs - A bearish view on rallies for near - month contracts is maintained due to continuous supply pressure and weak demand [43]. 5. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to oscillate. OPEC +'s decision to slow down production increases has limited support for oil prices [46]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the trend of crude oil, with a supply - abundant and demand - flat situation [47]. Plastics - A bearish view on oscillations is maintained due to large supply pressure and weak demand [49]. Methanol - The near - month contracts are recommended to be traded with a bearish view on oscillations, and the far - month contracts can be slightly long - positioned after the emergence of upward drivers [50]. Caustic Soda - A bearish view on oscillations is maintained. The spot price is weak, and there are certain support and risk factors [51]. Asphalt - The price is expected to have larger fluctuations. The inventory reduction speed may slow down, and there are geopolitical and winter storage expectations [52][53]. Polyester Industry Chain - The market is expected to continue to be weak due to insufficient cost support and unimproved supply - demand structure [54]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - In the short term, it may be strongly oscillating due to the approaching peak season, but in the medium - to - long term, a bearish view is maintained due to abundant supply [55]. Offset Printing Paper - If the price increase is implemented, long positions can be considered at low prices with risk control [56]. Pulp - The spot price provides certain support, and long positions can be considered at low prices after observing port destocking and spot trading [56]. Logs - The market is weakly oscillating, and the price is expected to be under pressure [56]. Urea - A bearish view on oscillations is maintained. There is a game between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the impact of coal prices on sentiment [58].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on quantitative indicators, the trends of various futures varieties are judged. Some varieties are considered bearish, some are in a sideways trend, and some are bullish [4]. - The macro - economic situation shows a series of events, including changes in government debt management, corporate business adjustments, international policies, and economic data forecasts, which will have an impact on the financial market [6][7]. - Different strategies are proposed for different sectors of the futures market, such as going long on stock index futures on dips, expecting bonds to rise due to the implementation of monetary policy, and having different views on the trends of black, non - ferrous, agricultural, and energy - chemical products [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The Ministry of Finance has established a Debt Management Department to manage government domestic debt [6]. - ICBC's gold accumulation business was suspended and then resumed [6]. - China has extended visa - free policies for 45 countries and resumed group tours to Canada [6]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth [6]. - China's robotics industry revenue increased by 29.5% in the first three quarters of this year [6]. - TSMC may implement a four - year price increase plan for advanced processes starting from 2026 [7]. - Some Fed officials called for more aggressive interest rate cuts, while others said that December rate cuts depend on new information [7]. - US corporate layoffs reached nearly 950,000 as of September, with the government sector being the hardest - hit [7]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a strategy of going long on dips and pay attention to index rotation. A - shares rebounded after hitting the bottom, but China's October economic data showed a decline, and the fourth - quarter monetary policy is expected to be more accommodative [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - Monetary policy implementation is expected to drive bond prices up. The money market is balanced and loose, and the market expects more accommodative monetary policy in the fourth quarter [10]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - In the medium - term winter, maintain a bearish view on rallies. The industry is expected to return to fundamentals in the short - to - medium term. Winter demand is weak, but prices may rebound. However, high inventory and weak demand limit the upside of steel prices [12][13][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Supply is gradually recovering, but policies and iron - water production will affect prices. The potential negative feedback from weak steel demand will limit the upside [16]. Ferroalloys - Silicon iron is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the range. Manganese silicon is recommended to be shorted on rallies due to over - supply [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see. Soda ash supply is high, and new capacity is yet to be put into production. Glass may see production cuts, but inventory is high [18][19]. Non - Ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to rise and fluctuate at a high level, but it is recommended to wait and see due to weak domestic demand. Alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies due to over - supply [21]. Zinc - It is recommended to short on rallies. Domestic zinc inventory has a slight increase, and the market is cautious in purchasing [21][22]. Lithium Carbonate - It will fluctuate in the short term. Demand is good, but supply may increase, which will limit the upside [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to go long with a small position at the lower end. Polysilicon will also trade in a range, with policy expectations affecting the price [24][25][26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - It is recommended to wait and see. Supply pressure is increasing, but low prices and potential production shortfalls support the price [28][29]. Sugar - It is recommended to operate with a short - rolling strategy or wait and see. Global sugar supply is in surplus, but domestic costs and import policies affect the price [30][32]. Eggs - It is recommended to trade with a sideways strategy and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices. Futures are strong due to "capacity - reduction" expectations, but high inventory may limit the upside [33][34]. Apples - Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The acquisition is in the later stage, and inventory is lower than the same period [35]. Corn - It is recommended to wait and see. Spot prices have rebounded, but new - grain supply pressure and potential wheat substitution may limit the upside [36]. Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. Market prices are stable, and attention should be paid to the price changes after the new - season harvest [37]. Pigs - It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Prices are expected to fluctuate. OPEC+ has postponed production increases, but the long - term supply - demand imbalance still exists [40]. Fuel Oil - Prices will follow crude oil prices. Supply is loose, and demand is weak [41]. Plastics - Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Supply pressure is high, and demand is relatively weak [41][42]. Rubber - Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Inventory is increasing, and the market is weak [44]. Methanol - Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly, and far - month contracts can be long - configured in small amounts when there is a rebound drive. Supply is under pressure, but there are potential supply disruptions [45][46]. Caustic Soda - It is recommended to trade with a sideways strategy. Supply exceeds demand, but there are cost supports and risks [47]. Asphalt - Price fluctuations are expected to increase. Crude oil is in a sideways trend, asphalt demand is weakening, and production is expected to increase [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices are expected to continue to be weak in the short term. Cost support is limited, and supply - demand pressure remains [49][50]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to the peak season, but bearish in the long term due to high supply [51]. Others Offset Printing Paper - If the price increase is implemented, long positions can be established at low prices with risk control [52]. Pulp - It is recommended to observe inventory and spot transactions. Long positions can be established at low prices for far - month contracts if the spot price is stable [52]. Logs - Prices are expected to be under pressure. Inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in a weak balance [53]. Urea - It is recommended to trade with a weakly sideways strategy. There is a game between bulls and bears, and coal prices affect the sentiment [53]. Synthetic Rubber - It is not recommended to chase short positions after a sharp decline. A short - call strategy can be continued [54][55].