交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 4 月 2 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/4/2 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 氧化铝 | 集运欧线 | 玻璃 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 碳酸锂 | 硅铁 | 白糖 | | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 锰硅 | 十债 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 上证50股指期货 | 燃油 | 三十债 | | | 客服电话： | | 沪深300股指期货 | 原油 | 二债 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 中证500股指期货 | 铝 | 五债 | | | | | 红枣 | 纯碱 | 多晶硅 | | | 公司网址： | 塑料 | | 沥青 | 苹果 | | | | 鸡蛋 | | 棉花 | | | | www.ztqh ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/4/1 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | | | | | | | | 上证50股指期货 | 生猪 | 五债 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 沪深300股指期货 | 纯碱 | 原油 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 中证500股指期货 | 玻璃 | 十债 | | | | | 碳酸锂 | 烧碱 | 三十债 | | | 客服电话： | | 中证1000指数期货 | 豆粕 | 二债 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 氧化铝 | 铝 | 燃油 | | | | | 焦煤 | 棉花 | 苹果 | | | 公司网址： | | 焦炭 | 沥青 | | | | www.ztqh.com | | 塑料 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 3 月 31 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/3/31 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | | | | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | | 甲醇 | 焦炭 | 燃油 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 塑料 | 焦煤 | 苹果 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 红枣 | 橡胶 | | | | | | 玻璃 | 沥青 | | | | 客服电话： | | 纯碱 | 铝 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 氧化铝 | 原木 | | | | | | 尿素 | 烧碱 | | | | 公司网址： | | 橡胶 | 豆粕 | | | | www.ztqh.com | | 鸡蛋 | 生猪 | | | | | | 热轧卷板 | 铁矿石 | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The production increment of polyethylene continues to materialize, and it is recommended to treat the market with a weak and oscillatory outlook [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - This week, the domestic polyethylene production increased slightly, with the national output rising from 60.27 million tons last week to 61.64 million tons, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly next week due to the resumption of many maintenance devices. The import and export volumes remained unchanged, with imports at 28.89 million tons and exports at 2.50 million tons. The apparent demand was lower than expected this week, reaching 93.58 million tons, and is estimated to be 87.49 million tons next week according to seasonality. The inventory reduction speed was faster than expected, mainly due to the increase in apparent demand, but it is expected to accumulate slightly next week [5] 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply - In 2024, a total of 3.2 million tons of new polyethylene production capacity was put into operation, and in 2025, new production capacity such as Jilin Petrochemical's upgrade, Qinghai Damei Coal Industry, and ExxonMobil (Huizhou) is planned to be put into operation [18] 3.2.2 Cost - The price of crude oil is expected to oscillate, and the price of coal remains stable. The cost of polyethylene is oscillating, with the cost of oil - based PE increasing from 8393 to 8542, and the cost of coal - based PE remaining at 7352. The overall upstream profit is in a weak and oscillatory state [6] 3.2.3 Demand - The downstream demand is mainly based on rigid needs, and the apparent demand this week was lower than expected. The downstream profit situation varies, with the profit of some products such as film showing different trends [32][33][34] 3.2.4 Inventory - The inventory reduction speed this week was faster than expected, mainly due to the increase in apparent demand. The upstream inventory decreased, with the two - oil inventory decreasing from 38.93 million tons to 35.09 million tons, but it is expected to accumulate slightly next week [5] 3.3 Basis and Spread - The basis oscillated weakly this week, with the spot market weakening significantly. The monthly spread is expected to show a reverse arbitrage trend, and the spread between varieties is expected to decline slightly later. The LL - PP spread in the far - month contract is recommended to be temporarily withdrawn for observation [6] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The upstream is still focused on rapid sales, with great pressure from new production capacity and a poor mentality. The mid - stream sales are average, and the downstream purchasing willingness is not strong. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to withdraw from the 5 - 9 spread, consider reducing a small amount of short - hedging orders for the far - month 05 contract and increasing them after a rebound, and adopt a strategy of selling call options [7]

中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报 PVC + NAOH + CL 2025年3月31日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 PVC综述及平衡表 数据来源：隆众资讯，中泰期货整理 预测方法:依据历史数据进行线性外推 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 PVC相关品种价格 | | | 上 周 | 本 周 | 周环比 | 下周预期 | 思 路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 烧碱32% | 930 | 870 | -60 | 液氯价格略微好转 | 烧碱现货降价 兰炭价格小幅走弱 部 。 ， | | | 山东液氯 | 1 | -100 | -101 | | 分地区电石价格走 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound space of the polypropylene market is limited, and it will continue to fluctuate weakly. The upstream production profit is expected to decline, and the inventory removal speed is ideal this week, but the inventory removal speed is expected to slow down slightly next week. The cost side fluctuates strongly this week, and the upward space is limited, and it is expected to decline slightly in the next two weeks. [1][7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions No relevant content provided. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: This week's production decreased slightly to 732,000 tons, and the maintenance loss decreased by 3,700 tons to 156,100 tons. Next week, some devices will resume production, and the production is expected to increase to 737,500 tons. The import volume remained stable at 75,000 tons, and the export volume was 37,500 tons. [6] - **Demand**: The apparent demand increased by 64,200 tons to 842,200 tons this week. According to the seasonality, the apparent demand is expected to be about 820,000 tons next week. [6] - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 72,700 tons to 858,600 tons this week, and the inventory removal speed was ideal. The upstream inventory decreased by 59,000 tons to 641,700 tons, and the midstream inventory decreased by 13,700 tons to 216,900 tons. Next week, the inventory is expected to continue to decrease. [6] 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis showed a weakening trend this week. The East China basis decreased by 40 to -40, the North China basis decreased by 50 to -100, and the South China basis decreased by 60 to -60. [8] - **Spread**: The monthly spread fluctuated, and there was no strong short - term driving force. The fiber -拉丝 spread remained unchanged at 200, and the copolymer -拉丝 spread increased by 10 to 260, which had a certain supporting effect on the pellet price. [8] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Upstream**: The upstream is under great production capacity pressure, with a pessimistic attitude and a focus on active sales. Although some devices are under maintenance and the operating rate has decreased significantly, the production decline is not obvious, and the upstream is still under some pressure. [10] - **Midstream**: The mid - stream sales situation is average, with mainly rigid demand transactions. [10] - **Downstream**: The downstream has rigid demand procurement, and there is no significant change in demand currently. [10] - **Strategy**: Consider reducing the long PP and short MA spread strategy in small quantities, and continue to operate after the callback. Adopt a range - bound thinking, and it is recommended to increase short PP orders at the current price. Sell call options. [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report For the Soda Ash Market - The most concentrated period of maintenance plans has ended, and inventory pressure will return. Although rigid demand has improved recently, the trend of oversupply remains unchanged. After end - users replenish inventory from middle - stream players, upstream order - taking faces pressure. The recommended strategy is to mainly short at high levels and avoid the positive feedback effect driven by upward - rushing sentiment [9]. For the Glass Market - Low supply exerts little pressure, and the inventory accumulation rate has significantly narrowed and is nearly flat; the inventory of futures - cash transactions needs to be digested. The short - term strategy should turn cautious, with the idea of taking profits on long positions, and then going long on far - month contracts at low prices after a pullback [167]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Soda Ash Market 3.1 Soda Ash Market Overview - **Supply**: The daily production level of soda ash plants has returned to a high level and is expected to increase in the near future. The export performance is good, while the import price window is not open. Some manufacturers have maintenance plans in April and May, but the involved production capacity is relatively small [8]. - **Demand**: The demand for heavy soda ash from the float glass and photovoltaic glass sectors is expected to increase recently. End - users are replenishing inventory at low prices [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash plants and social inventory have decreased this week, but the long - term inventory accumulation pressure remains after the maintenance plans [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs of ammonia - soda process and combined - soda process are relatively stable, and the profit of the combined - soda process has increased slightly [8]. - **Strategy**: Trend shorting at high levels is recommended, avoiding the positive feedback effect driven by upward - rushing sentiment [9]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - **Production**: The monthly production of soda ash shows seasonal fluctuations, and the current production is at a relatively high level [15]. - **Import and Export**: The current import volume is 0.55 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.42 million tons; the export volume is 15.14 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.39 million tons [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Futures - Spot Price Comparison**: The prices of soda ash futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations over the years [23][25]. - **Basis of Soda Ash Contracts**: The basis of different soda ash contracts has different trends [28][30][31]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread of Soda Ash Contracts**: The inter - delivery spreads of different soda ash contracts also show different trends [33][34][35]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: The spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot have different trends [37][38][39]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - **Shahe Region**: The current market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe region is 1383 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 567 yuan/ton [45]. - **Regional Price Comparison**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions have different trends, with some regions showing price decreases [49]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Start - Stop Situation**: Some manufacturers are currently under maintenance or have reduced production loads, and some have planned maintenance in the future [85]. - **Start - up Rate**: The current domestic start - up rate of soda ash is 82.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.53 percentage points [86]. - **Production of Heavy and Light Soda Ash**: The current weekly production of heavy soda ash is 36.9 million tons, and that of light soda ash is 32.12 million tons [86]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs and profits of ammonia - soda process and combined - soda process enterprises have different trends, and the price of synthetic ammonia also affects the cost of soda ash production [109]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Demand for Heavy Soda Ash**: The demand for heavy soda ash is mainly from the float glass and photovoltaic glass industries, and the demand is expected to increase [133]. - **Weekly Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly apparent consumption of heavy and light soda ash and the production - sales ratio have different trends [140]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Price**: The prices of photovoltaic glass of different specifications have different trends [143][144]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The current inventory of soda ash enterprises is 163 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.78 million tons [148]. - **Inventory by Region**: The inventory of soda ash in different regions has different trends [157]. Glass Market 3.8 Glass Market Overview - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass has decreased slightly this week, and there are plans for production line cold - repairs and water - releases in the future [165]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption has increased this week. After the recent stabilization and upward movement of the futures market, futures - cash traders and traders have replenished inventory, but the wait - and - see sentiment among middle - stream players has increased this week [165]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory has decreased this week, and the inventory accumulation rate has significantly narrowed [165]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs of natural - gas - fired, coal - gas - fired, and petroleum - coke - fired production lines are relatively stable, but most production capacities are in a loss - making state [165]. 3.9 Monthly Supply and Demand - **Production**: The monthly production of flat glass shows seasonal fluctuations, and the current production is at a relatively low level [172]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volumes of float glass have different trends over the years [173][177]. 3.10 Basis and Spread - **Futures - Spot Price Comparison**: The prices of soda ash and glass futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations over the years [181][182]. - **Basis of Glass Contracts**: The basis of different glass contracts has different trends [186][187][188]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread of Glass Contracts**: The inter - delivery spreads of different glass contracts also show different trends [190][191][192]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: The spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot have different trends [195][196][197]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - **Regional Price Comparison**: The prices of float glass of different specifications in different regions have different trends, with some regions showing price increases [203]. 3.12 Glass Supply - **Profit of Float Glass**: The profits of float glass enterprises using different fuels have different trends, and the profit of coal - gas - fired enterprises has increased significantly this week [242].

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 3 月 28 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] | | [Table_Report] | | 中泰微投研小程序 中泰期货公众号 | 1. 国家统计局最新数据显示，1-2 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现营业收入同比 增长 2.8%，增速比去年全年加快 0.7 个百分点。工业企业利润有所改善，制造业利 润改善明显，1-2 月份同比增长 4.8%。 | Marketing | 112 129 | 1004 28. | | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 豆粕 | 鸡蛋 | | 铁矿石 | 螺纹钢 | 橡胶 | | 焦炭 | 甲醇 | 塑料 | | PTA | 菜畑 | 들 드 | | PVC | 郑棉 | 玉米淀粉 | | 白糖 ...

晨会纪要 2025 年 3 月 27 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | ان ان اساس | | 生 ↓ 生 イ ・ | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農あ | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 氧化铝 | 铝 | 燃油 | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 白糖 | 三十债 | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 原油 | 十债 | | | | 上证50股指期货 | 棉纱 | 五债 | | | | 沪深300股指期货 | 沥青 | 苹果 | | | | 橡胶 | 棉花 | 多晶硅 | | | | 橡胶 | 二债 | | | | | 棕櫚油 | 液化石油气 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 集运欧线 | | | | | 塑料 | 生猪 | | | | | 工业硅 | 尿素 | | | | | 红枣 | ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 3 月 26 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/3/26 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 上证50股指期货 | 纯碱 | 玻璃 | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 棉纱 | 燃油 | | | | 沪深300股指期货 | 棉花 | 原油 | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 白糖 | 螺纹钢 | | | | 标 脚 | 三十债 | 热轧卷板 | | | | 烧碱 | 二债 | 多晶硅 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 沥青 | 苹果 | | | | 工业硅 | 五债 | | | | | ई] क् | 十债 | | | | | 塑料 | 氧化铝 | | | | ...