Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bottom of precious metals may be confirmed, and they are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals has not reversed, and the long - term price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [1][3]. - The price of precious metals rebounded slightly on Thursday after the decline gradually slowed down. The U.S. government shutdown continued, overseas was still in a data vacuum period, and the U.S. stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were calm [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - U.S. President Trump will make a statement in Washington at 3 p.m. local time and will visit Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan next week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will accompany Trump to Japan and then attend the APEC meeting in South Korea [2]. - During the federal government shutdown, the U.S. government's national debt scale exceeded $38 trillion on Wednesday for the first time in history. The debt has been growing rapidly in the past decade due to factors like population aging and increased interest payments [2]. - The release of the U.S. initial jobless claims data originally scheduled for 8:30 a.m. on October 23 was postponed due to the government shutdown [2]. Price Logic - In the short - term, the precious metals are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. In the month, attention should be paid to the Sino - U.S. meeting around the APEC meeting. In the fourth quarter, focus on the Fed's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The market has fully priced in three interest rate cuts this year, but the 2026 interest rate cut expectation has not been reflected. Pay attention to the game around the December FOMC meeting [3]. - Personnel changes in the Fed within 1 - 2 quarters are an important variable. After Thanksgiving, the nomination of the new Fed chairman is expected to be confirmed, which may bring greater long - term interest rate imagination [3]. - Pay attention to the potential impact of the right - wing tendency after Koike Sanae is elected as the new Prime Minister of Japan [3]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals remains unchanged. The contraction of the U.S. dollar credit is the core foundation. In the long - run, the price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [3]. - This week, the price range of London Gold Spot is expected to be between $3,900 and $4,400 per ounce, and that of London Silver Spot is expected to be between $46 and $55 per ounce [3]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.70%, 0.58%, 1.12%, and 0.86% respectively [43]. - The precious metals index on October 23, 2025, had a daily decline of 0.58%, a 5 - day decline of 5.94%, a 1 - month increase of 13.32%, and a year - to - date increase of 49.27% [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the tight supply - demand situation, lithium carbonate leads the rise of new energy metals. In the long run, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, with a possible rise in the price center. The high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, with continuous warehouse receipt depletion, the silicon price fluctuates. For polysilicon, with a slight reduction in warehouse receipts, it continues to fluctuate. For lithium carbonate, with continuous warehouse receipt depletion, the lithium price rises with increased positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously depleted, and the silicon price fluctuates [6]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, the monthly domestic industrial silicon production was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. In September, the export volume was 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. The latest domestic inventory was 445,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [6]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the supply in the Northwest continues to increase, while the dry season in the Southwest is approaching, with some silicon plants reducing production. On the demand side, the consumption of industrial silicon has rebounded due to the resumption of production of some polysilicon enterprises in October, but is expected to decline slightly in November. The silicone DMC market is stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry is limited. The continuous depletion of industrial silicon warehouse receipts supports the futures price [6]. - **Outlook**: With a relatively loose supply pattern, the silicon price is under pressure. Affected by coal prices, the silicon price will fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are slightly depleted, and polysilicon continues to fluctuate [7]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, the export volume of polysilicon was about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September, the export volume was 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. The import volume in September was about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September, the import volume was 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26%. Some bases in the Southwest are expected to stop production in late October - early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons per year [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the production in August - September has recovered to over 130,000 tons, expected to remain high in October and decline in November. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first half of the year was high, but the demand in the second half of the year is expected to weaken. There is still pressure on the current supply - demand of polysilicon, but there are policy expectations, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [7][9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy can boost the polysilicon price, but the current supply - demand is poor, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously depleted, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [9]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 23, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.66% to 79,940 yuan/ton, and the total open interest increased by 72,329 lots to 815,338 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton to 74,800 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton to 72,550 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts decreased by 260 lots to 28,759 lots [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand. The supply is expected to reach 90,000 tons in October. The apparent demand is strong, and the production schedule in November is still strong. The social inventory is decreasing, but the total inventory is still large. The significant reduction in warehouse receipts should be watched out for. The price has strengthened under the situation of strong supply and demand [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the long - term oversupply expectation suppresses the price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [10]. 3.2 Market Monitoring - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the black building materials industry. However, for individual varieties, the mid - term outlook for most is "oscillation", including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon [7][8][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black building materials industry chain operates stably. Coal mine supply recovery is slower than expected, supporting coking coal and coke prices, but it's difficult to spread the impact to other varieties in the sector. Meanwhile, with continuous macro and policy expectations, short - term prices of sector varieties will remain oscillating, and attention should be paid to rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined from a high level. The sample daily average output of hot metal continues to decline, and the market's expectation of weakening hot metal has increased. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and the pressure is not significant. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply has decreased significantly this week, and demand has also declined. Steel mills' inventories are slightly reduced. The short - term price is expected to follow the trend of finished products [10]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The second round of price increase is likely to be implemented. With short - term rigid demand from steel mills and strong raw materials, the price is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is frequently disrupted, and mid - and downstream procurement is active. The fundamentals are healthy, but the upward driving force of furnace materials is limited under the pressure of steel products. The price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: Cost reduction is limited, steel production is at a high level, and macro - policy expectations support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the medium - and long - term price center may decline [2]. - **Ferrosilicon**: High finished product output and stable cost support the price, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the expected upward price limit is limited [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Upstream inventory continues to accumulate, and the short - term price shows an oscillating and weakening trend. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro fluctuations and oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [3]. 3.5 Steel - The inventory of steel continues to decrease, but it is at a moderately high level. The contradiction in the fundamentals needs time to ease. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the strengthening of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [7]. 3.6 Commodity Index - On October 23, 2025, the comprehensive index, including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, showed an upward trend, with increases of 0.70%, 0.58%, 1.12%, and 0.86% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.93% on that day, 2.20% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.29% in the past month, and decreased by 4.73% since the beginning of the year [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The sanctions imposed by the US on Russian oil companies have increased trade barriers, forming a bullish driver for oil prices. However, whether it will lead to a substantial reduction in Russian oil exports is uncertain, and the geopolitical factor only delays the downward trend of oil prices. The short - term price support is expected to be relatively stable, and the SC - Brent spread is expected to widen [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics - On October 22, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil closed up 4.36% and 3.13% respectively, and on October 23, SC crude oil opened up 3.5% in the morning [3] Reasons for the Rise - On October 22, the US Treasury added Rosneft and Lukoil to the sanctions list. In 2024, these two companies' crude oil production accounted for 46% of Russia's total production, which led to increased trade barriers and a bullish driver for oil prices. Trump also canceled the meeting with Putin and said it was time to sanction Russia [4] Fundamental Situation - Geopolitical factors dominate the short - term market. After the sanctions on Gazprom Neft in January 2025 and Rosneft and Lukoil on October 22, the top four Russian oil companies are all on the US sanctions list, accounting for 77% of Russia's 2024 crude oil production. The US Treasury's exemption for normal transactions ends on November 21. Although Russian oil exports have been relatively stable after multiple sanctions, the potential impact of this new round of sanctions is difficult to quantify [5] Market Outlook - Currently, the expectation of a reduction in Russian oil supply is difficult to disprove, and short - term price support is expected to be stable. Even if there is a reduction of hundreds of thousands of barrels in Russian oil exports, it is difficult to reverse the global crude oil supply surplus. The SC - Brent spread is expected to widen due to the enhanced substitution effect of Middle Eastern crude oil [6]

Group 1: Report Core View - The EIA weekly data shows that the refinery utilization rate rebounded, while the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel remained weak [2] - In the week ending October 17, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels, with an increase in net crude oil imports of 656,000 barrels per day and an increase in crude oil processing volume of 600,000 barrels per day. Domestic focus is on production resilience and refinery utilization rate. The estimated single - week crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate rose from 85.7% to 88.6%, likely due to the restart of refineries after early - month accidents [4] - Gasoline and diesel showed seasonal inventory declines, but their apparent demands were at low levels compared to the same period. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products declined from a high, and single - week data has limited indication [4] Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data (in barrels) - US commercial crude oil inventory change: decreased by 961,000 barrels (previous value increased by 3.524 million barrels) [5] - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: decreased by 770,000 barrels (previous value decreased by 703,000 barrels) [5] - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 819,000 barrels (previous value increased by 760,000 barrels) [5] - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 2.147 million barrels (previous value decreased by 267,000 barrels) [5] - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 1.479 million barrels (previous value decreased by 4.529 million barrels) [5] - US jet fuel inventory change: decreased by 1.485 million barrels (previous value increased by 146,000 barrels) [5] - US fuel oil inventory change: increased by 505,000 barrels (previous value increased by 255,000 barrels) [5] - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): decreased by 4.172 million barrels (previous value increased by 1.663 million barrels) [5] Production and Demand Data (in barrels per day) - US crude oil production: 13.629 million barrels per day (previous value 13.636 million barrels per day) [5] - US refined oil apparent demand: 20.014 million barrels per day (previous value 19.726 million barrels per day) [5] - US gasoline apparent demand: 8.454 million barrels per day (previous value 8.455 million barrels per day) [5] - US diesel apparent demand: 3.847 million barrels per day (previous value 4.233 million barrels per day) [5] - US crude oil imports: 5.918 million barrels per day (previous value 5.525 million barrels per day) [5] - US crude oil exports: 4.203 million barrels per day (previous value 4.466 million barrels per day) [5] - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 15.73 million barrels per day (previous value 15.13 million barrels per day) [5] - US refinery utilization rate: 88.6% (previous value 85.7%) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The EIA weekly data shows that the refinery utilization rate rebounded, while the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel remained weak. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 961,000 barrels in the week ending October 17, 2025, with an increase in net imports and crude oil processing volume. The refinery utilization rate rose from 85.7% to 88.6%, likely due to the restart of refineries after early - month accidents. Gasoline and diesel showed seasonal inventory declines, but their apparent demands were at low levels for the same period, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products decreased from a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Crude Oil - **Inventory**: The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 961,000 barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 770,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum inventory increased by 819,000 barrels [4][5]. - **Production**: The estimated single - week U.S. crude oil production decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day [4]. - **Imports and Exports**: Crude oil net imports increased by 656,000 barrels per day. Imports were 5.918 million barrels per day, and exports were 4.203 million barrels per day [4][5]. Petroleum Products - **Inventory**: Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.147 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 1.479 million barrels, jet fuel inventory decreased by 1.485 million barrels, and fuel oil inventory increased by 505,000 barrels. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) decreased by 4.172 million barrels [5]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for refined oil products was 20.014 million barrels per day, with gasoline at 8.454 million barrels per day and diesel at 3.847 million barrels per day. Both gasoline and diesel apparent demands were at low levels for the same period [4][5]. Refinery - **Processing Volume**: The U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 600,000 barrels per day to 15.73 million barrels per day [4]. - **Utilization Rate**: The refinery utilization rate rebounded from 85.7% to 88.6%, likely due to the restart of refineries after accidental shutdowns at the beginning of the month [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, mainly including "oscillation", "oscillation - slightly stronger", "oscillation - slightly weaker", etc. For example, the mid - term outlooks for most products like crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are "oscillation" [7][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - US situation and the US - India trade agreement have led to a rebound in crude oil prices. The short - term rhythm of crude oil is determined by geopolitics, while the medium - term supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [1]. - With the rebound of crude oil and the increase of chemical coal prices, the chemical industry has also started to rebound. There are minor disruptions in the supply of some chemical products, but the overall pattern has not changed significantly [2]. - For different energy and chemical products, their prices are affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, showing different trends of oscillation, rise, or fall [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased, and Russian oil exports are facing new challenges. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and EIA data shows a small reduction in US crude oil and refined product inventories last week. The downward trend of crude oil prices may be delayed, and the spread between domestic and foreign markets is expected to widen [7]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price has broken through the 3200 pressure level. OPEC+ production increase, Saudi Arabia's export price adjustment, and other factors have led to a rebound in asphalt prices. However, the spot price has continued to decline, and the inventory pressure is still large [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela have intensified, driving up the futures price. Although there are some negative factors, the market is mainly affected by geopolitical upgrades [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. It is facing multiple negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by other fuels, but its current valuation is low [10]. - **PX**: Low prices have attracted market buying interest, and the short - term support has been strengthened under the improvement of supply - demand conditions [11]. - **PTA**: Under supply - demand pressure, the spot processing fee and basis have weakened significantly [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream consumers tend to buy on rising prices, and the sustainability of increased trading volume needs to be observed [20]. - **Bottle - Chip**: It follows the rise of polyester raw materials [21]. - **Propylene**: The price difference with PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates [3]. - **PP**: The rebound of oil prices and minor support from maintenance lead to oscillation [28]. - **Plastic**: The rebound of oil prices and increased downstream trading volume result in oscillation [27]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates upward with the rebound of crude oil [16]. - **PVC**: It oscillates at a low valuation with weak expectations [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market oscillates [31]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.34 with a change of 0.05, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 6 [33]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 81 with a change of - 102, and the number of warehouse receipts is 13040 [34]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 164 with a change of 57 [35]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but does not provide specific data analysis in the given text. It only lists the names of these products [36][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of commodities are presented. The commodity 20 index is 2531.94 with a decline of 0.48%, the industrial products index is 2204.41 with an increase of 0.87%, and the energy index on October 22, 2025, has a daily increase of 2.01% [279][281].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" outlook for the mid - term of the black building materials industry [7]. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the peak season draws to an end, although the demand for steel products has a slight month - on - month improvement, it cannot strongly support the prices of sector varieties. After the "15th Five - Year Plan" related meeting on October 23, the trading expectation around the introduction of favorable policies is expected to heat up. The fundamentals' guidance for prices will be "blunted", and short - term sector varieties may remain volatile. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [1][2][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals of iron ore have slightly weakened at the margin, but the overall contradiction is not significant. The overseas mine shipments have a slight month - on - month rebound, the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined from a high level, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The daily output of sample hot metal and the steel mill profitability rate have continued to decline slightly, but the hot metal is still at a high level. It is expected that the short - term price will fluctuate. The port trading volume is 122.9(+21.8) million tons, the swap main contract is 105.08(+0.52) dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 781(+4) yuan/ton [2][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel is relatively stable, with a significant decline in the arrival volume this week and a slight year - on - year decrease, and a slight rebound in yesterday's arrival at the port. The demand has seen a slight increase in the daily consumption of scrap steel due to the resumption of some electric furnaces after the festival, and a decrease in the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel due to a slight decline in hot metal production. The inventory has increased slightly in steel enterprises. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the trend of finished products. The average tax - free price of shredded materials in East China is 2173(+1) yuan/ton, and the price difference between rebar and scrap steel in East China is 945(+9) yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The profit margins of the coking and steel sectors have both narrowed, and the game between coking plants and steel mills continues. With the hot metal remaining at a high level in the short term, the expectation of a price increase is strong. It is expected that the coke price will fluctuate. The futures market fluctuated yesterday, and the spot price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1470(+20) yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply has been disrupted, and capacity release is still restricted. The demand for coke production can provide rigid support in the short term, and the fundamentals are relatively healthy with low upstream inventory. However, with the steel under pressure, the upward driving force of furnace materials is temporarily limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will fluctuate in the short term. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1300 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1307 yuan/ton [12][13]. 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: Cost reduction is limited, steel production is at a high level, and macro - policy expectations support the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the price center may shift downward in the medium - to - long - term. The main contract price of silicomanganese rose yesterday. The ex - factory price of 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian ore blocks with 45.0% Mn at Tianjin Port is 39 yuan/ton - degree [16][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: High steel production, macro - policy expectations, and firm cost support the price. However, the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the rebound height of the ferrosilicon price is expected to be limited. The main contract price of ferrosilicon rose yesterday, and the ex - factory price of 72 ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5180(+50) yuan/ton [19]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The upstream inventory has been continuously accumulating, and after the negative feedback between futures and spot, the short - term price shows a weak and volatile trend. The mid - stream has not significantly reduced inventory, and it is difficult to have a rebound in the short term. In the medium - to - long - term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price may continue to decline. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1140(-20) yuan/ton, and the national average price is 1196(-7) yuan/ton [3][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow the macro - fluctuations and have a wide - range volatile trend. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote production capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, the daily production is 105,000 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by about 10,000 tons on Monday [16]. 3.5 Steel Products - The spot market transactions are average, with a strong willingness to sell at low prices. The profit of blast furnaces and electric furnaces is not good, but the profitability rate of steel mills is still relatively high. The downward trend of hot metal is not obvious, and there is a situation of electric furnace restart. The supply of steel products is at a relatively high level. The demand continues to recover, but the recovery height is still limited. The steel inventory continues to decline, but the inventory level is still at a moderately high level. It is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate at a low level. The price of Hangzhou rebar is 3170(+20) yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260(+10) yuan/ton, the trading volume of construction steel is 107,573(+6,422) tons, and the trading volume of hot - rolled coil is 35,237(+2,107) tons [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core Views - The stock index futures market showed a volume - shrinking adjustment with overall resilience. After two consecutive days of gains, the market took a rest on Wednesday. The Wind All - A Index slightly declined by 0.38%. Defensive sectors like oil and gas and banks led the rise, while military and agricultural products led the decline. The A - share trading volume dropped to 1.69 trillion yuan, and the total position of stock index futures decreased by over 30,000 lots. The market is in a state of limited upside and downside, and it is advisable to hold a dumbbell - shaped structure and then shift to a growth - oriented allocation structure when the situation changes [1][7]. - The stock index options market witnessed a simultaneous decline in volume and volatility. The trading volume of the options market was 7815 million yuan, a 20.39% decrease from the previous day. The market liquidity declined, especially for small - and medium - cap varieties. The implied volatility index decreased by 0.51% on average. It is recommended to use covered call strategies to increase returns and also consider holding short straddles [2][7]. - The treasury bond futures market should focus on policy signal releases. The bond market showed a volatile performance. The expectation of loose monetary policy continued to boost the bullish sentiment in the bond market, and the central bank continued to conduct net injections in the open market, with a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan on the day. In the fourth quarter, there is a possibility of the implementation of quantitative tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, but the timing may be late. In the short term, caution is still needed, and attention should be paid to policy signals after the Fourth Plenary Session [2][7][9]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The current situation is a volume - shrinking adjustment with overall resilience. The basis, spread, and total position of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have changed. The operation suggestion is to hold dividend ETF + IM [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The volume and volatility have declined simultaneously, and covered call strategies can be used to deal with the situation. The trading volume of the options market decreased, the risk preference retracted, and the implied volatility continued to decline. The suggestions are covered call and short straddle strategies [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Attention should be paid to policy signal releases. The trading volume, position, spread, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed. The central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 43.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. The operation suggestions include trend strategies (volatility), hedging strategies (pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels), basis strategies (pay attention to basis widening), and curve strategies (the curve may remain steep) [7][9]. Economic Calendar - The economic data of China and the US for the week are presented, including China's October LPR, September fixed - asset investment, industrial added - value, social consumer goods retail sales, and the third - quarter GDP, as well as the US's September non - farm payrolls change [10]. Important Information and News Tracking - **Mergers and Acquisitions**: Shenzhen has launched an action plan for high - quality development of mergers and acquisitions from 2025 - 2027, aiming to improve the quality of listed companies, increase the total market value of listed companies, and promote the development of the mergers and acquisitions market [11]. - **Interest Rates**: In September 2025, the average interest rates of bank time deposits for different terms are provided, such as 0.944% for 3 - month deposits [11]. - **Huawei**: On October 22, Huawei released the HarmonyOS 6 special version, including the Harmony Galaxy Interconnection architecture with a transmission rate of 160MB/s, and enhanced functions such as "touch - to - share" [12]. - **US Government Shutdown**: The US government shutdown has entered the 22nd day, becoming the second - longest shutdown in history. The shutdown is likely to last until November [12]. Derivatives Market Monitoring - Information about the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures markets is mentioned, but specific data details are not provided in the given content [13][17][29].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious metals continued the adjustment trend on Wednesday, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous day. They may enter a monthly - level adjustment, but the long - term bull market trend remains intact. The key factors to watch are Fed's monetary policy, personnel changes, geopolitical and trade changes [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Key Information from Different Sections 1. Key News - Trump said that China and the US would reach a trade agreement at the APEC summit next week, but the two heads of state may not meet. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that they maintain close communication, and no specific information is available [2] - New Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae is preparing an economic stimulus plan worth over 13.9 trillion yen (about $92.19 billion) to help families cope with inflation. The plan focuses on anti - inflation measures, investment in growth industries, and national security. The specific scale is being finalized and may be announced next month [2] - UK's September CPI increased 3.8% year - on - year (expected 4%, previous 3.8%), and was flat month - on - month (ending the growth since February 2025, expected 0.2%, previous 0.3%). Core CPI increased 3.5% year - on - year (expected 3.7%, previous 3.6%) [2] 2. Price Logic - Precious metals continued the adjustment on Wednesday, with better performance during the Asian trading session. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets continued to repair upwards. Future focuses include Fed's monetary policy (the expectation of three rate cuts this year is well - priced, but 2026's rate - cut expectation is not), personnel changes (new Fed chair nomination may be confirmed after Thanksgiving), and the potential impact of Kaochi Sanae's right - wing tendency. In the long run, the bull market remains due to the shrinking of the US dollar's credit [3] 3. Outlook - This week, the price range of spot London gold is expected to be between $3900 and $4400 per ounce, and that of spot London silver is expected to be between $46 and $55 per ounce [3] 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index is not detailed. The special indices include the commodity index (2234.80, - 0.20%), the commodity 20 index (2531.94, - 0.48%), and the industrial products index (2204.41, + 0.87%) [42] 5. Sector Index - For the precious metals index on October 22, 2025, the daily decline was 3.94%, the decline in the past 5 days was 2.56%, the increase in the past month was 12.63%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 50.14% [44]