Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On October 22, equity indices fell while most CGB futures rose. More commodities rose, with energy & chemicals performing strongly [2][10][13]. - The price of crude oil increased by 2.5% on October 22, but the rebound space is expected to be limited due to persistent downward pressure on fundamentals and uncertain macroeconomics and geopolitics [16][18]. - Gold and silver decreased by 3.9% on October 22. After the concentrated realization of bullish factors, the market may enter a phased correction period. However, in the long run, the bull market trend of precious metals has not yet reversed [23][27][28]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On October 22, equity indices fell (IC decreased by 0.8%), most CGB futures rose (TL increased by 0.1%), more commodities rose, and energy & chemicals performed strongly. Among commodities, the top three gainers were bitumen (up 2.9% with open interest up 2.7% month - on - month), rapeseed (up 2.5% with open interest up 6.5% month - on - month), and crude oil (up 2.5% with open interest up 5.1% month - on - month). The top three decliners were gold (down 3.9% with open interest down 6.0% month - on - month), silver (down 3.9% with open interest down 9.0% month - on - month), and RBD palm olein (down 1.7% with open interest up 3.8% month - on - month) [10][11][13]. 1.2 Daily Raise - Crude Oil - On October 22, crude oil increased by 2.5% to 447.2 yuan/barrel. The downward pressure on fundamentals persists, and the outlook for macroeconomics and geopolitics remains uncertain. The room for rebound is expected to be limited. API data shows a slight draw in U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories last week, but the sustainability of this trend is limited. The supply side is in a phase of production increase, and there is pressure for accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation [16][17][18]. 1.3 Daily Drop - Gold & Silver - On October 22, gold decreased by 3.9% to 952.56 yuan/gram, and silver decreased by 3.9% to 11404 yuan/kg. After nearly two months of upward trend since late August, the market may enter a phased correction period as some bullish factors are gradually digested. In the long run, the bull market trend of precious metals has not reversed, and the contraction of US dollar credit remains the core cornerstone [23][27][28]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Trump said he expected to reach a trade agreement with Chinese leader at the APEC summit, but the meeting might be canceled. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that heads - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in Sino - US relations, and there is no information to share on the specific issue [3][38]. - The EU trade chief said that EU and Chinese officials have agreed to meet in Brussels for urgent talks on China's export controls on rare earth. The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized that China - EU economic and trade relations are win - win, and hopes the EU will uphold free trade principles [38][39]. 2.2 Industry News - Shenzhen has released the "Shenzhen Action Plan for Promoting High - Quality Development of Mergers and Acquisitions (2025 - 2027)", aiming to have the total market value of domestic and overseas listed companies exceed RMB 20 trillion by the end of 2027, cultivate 20 enterprises with a market value of over RMB 100 billion, and build a complete industrial chain M&A ecosystem [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The current volatility level is in a low - lying stage of accumulation. The "bad news is good news" logic may be coming to an end, and the internal fluctuation energy in the US is being accumulated, with a possible phased increase. The domestic low - valued assets may have some support in the fourth quarter. There is a risk of increased volatility in global large - class assets next week [8]. - Domestic macro: The economic and financial data in September showed relative resilience with structural highlights. Policy expectations were further strengthened, which is expected to promote the increase of physical work volume in the fourth quarter. The low - valued domestic assets in the fourth quarter may have certain support [8]. - Asset views: There is a risk of increased volatility in global large - class assets next week. In the overseas market, the marginal support for risk assets may decline, and the volatility of precious metals and the equity market may increase. In the domestic market, there are marginal changes in the policy end, and the low - valued domestic commodity assets may have a rebound opportunity [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4563.4, down 0.31%; the SSE 50 futures at 3005.6, up 0.03%; the CSI 500 futures at 7011.6, down 0.58%; the CSI 1000 futures at 7163.2, down 0.27% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.358, down 0.01%; the 5 - year at 105.735, up 0.02%; the 10 - year at 108.145, unchanged; the 30 - year at 115.61, up 0.02% [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher, while the precious metals sector corrected. For example, in the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 57.58, up 1.14%; ICE Brent at 61.66, up 1.18%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold closed at 4138.5, down 5.39%; COMEX silver at 48.16, down 16.41% [4]. 3.2 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: The stock market had a shrinking - volume rebound, and the bond market continued to be weak. Stock index futures may see a shock - up trend due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles; stock index options may fluctuate as market turnover declined slightly; treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. Gold and silver prices may fluctuate due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade tensions [9]. - **Shipping Sector**: Attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline. The container shipping to Europe may be volatile as the peak season in the third quarter has passed and there is a lack of upward drivers [9]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Steel and ore prices have been under pressure. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as policy disturbances, production and supply, and cost [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Basic metals are waiting for the clarification of macro - policies and are in a state of shock. For example, copper prices may decline in the short term due to renewed trade frictions; aluminum prices may rise slightly as inventories are decreasing [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The trade tension has slightly eased, but the supply - demand pattern of energy and chemicals remains weak. Most products are expected to be volatile, with some products such as crude oil and LPG at risk of shock - down [11]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The sentiment has warmed up, but the trends are differentiated. Some products like cotton may see a shock - up due to rising purchase prices, while others like sugar may continue to be weak and volatile [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Bearish outlook, with palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil expected to oscillate weakly [2][5] - **Protein Meals**: Expected to oscillate, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal in a sideways trend [5] - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to oscillate, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [6][7] - **Hogs**: Expected to oscillate weakly, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [12] - **Cotton**: Expected to oscillate, with a price range of 13100 - 13800 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [13][15] - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a recommendation of selling on rebounds [16] - **Pulp**: Expected to oscillate weakly, dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand [18] - **Offset Paper**: Expected to oscillate, with support at the bottom during the tender season [19][20] - **Logs**: Expected to oscillate, with opportunities to go long on dips in the 01 contract in the short term [21] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Due to profit - taking, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday, causing domestic oils and fats to decline. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may continue to build up, and factors such as the smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans and the seasonal decline in Indian vegetable oil imports increase the downward pressure on oils and fats [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, US soybeans are affected by Sino - US trade relations, with a low - level rebound. Domestically, there is a short - term expectation of increased US soybean imports, and the supply pressure is high. In the long term, the supply of soybean meal in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, while there may be a small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the futures price has declined slightly. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter progress has accelerated, and the rebound momentum has slowed down. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and in the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is in an oscillating and consolidating state. The recent rebound is a temporary oversold rebound, and the supply pressure is not significant for the time being. The demand is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price has returned to a narrow - range oscillation. The high production this year and the high social inventory are the main pressures. The raw material price has shown some support after a decline [12]. - **Cotton**: The purchase price has continued to rise slightly, boosting the cotton price. The estimated cotton production in Xinjiang has been revised down, and the short - term downward driving force is weakened, but there is a risk of correction after the rise [13]. - **Sugar**: The external market has continued to decline, and the weak pattern is difficult to change. In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is in a bear market [16]. - **Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the futures price is running at a low level. The supply - demand fundamentals are difficult to support a significant rise, and the warehouse receipts have a negative impact on the futures price [18]. - **Offset Paper**: Tenders are gradually starting, and there is support at the bottom. The market is currently in a low - activity state, and the cost support is general [19][20]. - **Logs**: There is a game on the information side, and the price is oscillating. The special port fee issue is under implementation, and the market is in a weak state due to factors such as weak demand and inventory build - up [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by profit - taking and the possible build - up of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the price is under pressure. The macro environment and industrial factors are complex, with factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the production and export of soybeans and palm oil having an impact [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, US soybeans are affected by Sino - US trade and South American competition. Domestically, the short - term supply pressure is high, and the long - term supply situation varies. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed, and the futures price has declined. The short - term supply pressure is not fully released, and the long - term inventory is expected to be tight [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease with the reduction of sow capacity [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The recent rebound is an oversold one. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The high production and inventory are the main pressures, and the raw material price has shown some support [12]. - **Cotton**: The estimated production has been revised down, and the purchase price has risen, driving the price up. There is a risk of correction in the fourth quarter [13]. - **Sugar**: The long - term supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term external market is weak. The internal market is relatively resistant to decline but may face downward pressure in the future [16]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the warehouse receipts have a negative impact on the futures price [18]. - **Offset Paper**: Tenders are starting, and there is support at the bottom. The market activity is low, and the cost support is general [19][20]. - **Logs**: The special port fee issue is affecting the market, and the demand is weak with inventory build - up [21]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various varieties including oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but no specific data monitoring details are provided in the non - omitted content [23][42][55]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include "bullish", "oscillating bullishly", "oscillating", "oscillating bearishly", and "bearish", with the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks and the standard deviation calculated as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price [176]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) are presented, with their respective values and changes [178][180].

Report Title - How to Trade the Coupon-Switching Market of Active 30Y Treasury Bonds? (20251022) [1] Core View - The spread evolution between new and old 30Y Treasury bonds generally shows an "M" shape, mainly influenced by liquidity premium [2] - Currently, the spread between 2400006 and 2500002 may be near the second peak of the "M" shape. If 2500002 becomes a non-active bond, there may be some convergence space for the spread. Attention can be paid to the spread convergence opportunity between 240006 and 2500002 and trading opportunities combined with Treasury bond futures [2] - The spread between 2400006 and 2500002 is currently at a relatively high level, and attention should be paid to the spread convergence opportunity [4]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with the overall outlook being "sideways" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the black building materials sector were generally stable yesterday, but steel and iron ore prices on the futures market continued to face pressure, dragging down coal and coke products. As the traditional off - season approaches, the actual demand for steel is unlikely to improve significantly. With the approaching of the blast furnace maintenance season for steel enterprises, there are still expectations of negative feedback in the industrial chain. However, in late October, the expectation of positive news from domestic and foreign macro - level meetings has increased, and short - term sector varieties are expected to remain volatile. Attention can be paid to the rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [2][3] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The fundamentals of iron ore have slightly weakened at the margin, but the overall pressure is not prominent. With the still - existing macro - level expectation disturbances, a slight recovery in steel demand, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations, the short - term price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. - Scrap steel: The contradictions in the scrap steel market are not prominent. With the current pressure on finished steel prices and poor EAF profits, the short - term price of scrap steel is expected to follow the trend of finished steel [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: In the short term, the supply and demand of coke are tight. With the deterioration of coking profits, the second - round price increase has been initiated. However, steel mills' profits are also poor, and the game between coking plants and steel mills continues. Whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be seen. The price of coke is expected to fluctuate. - Coking coal: Under the background of "anti - involution" and over - production inspections, the release of supply - side production capacity is restricted. The demand side still has rigid demand support from short - term coke production. With low inventories upstream, the fundamentals are relatively healthy. The price of coking coal is expected to fluctuate [2] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: Cost, high steel production, and macro - policy expectations support the price of manganese silicon, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the medium - to - long - term price center may still decline. - Ferrosilicon: Ferrosilicon is also supported by high finished steel production, policy expectations, and cost. However, the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still faces downward pressure in the later stage [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot sales of glass are weak. After the synchronous decline of the spot and futures markets, the short - term price fluctuates weakly. Currently, the middle - stream has not significantly reduced inventory, and there is little chance of a short - term rebound. In the long - term, market - based capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price may continue to decline. - Soda ash: The pattern of over - supply in the soda ash market remains unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely following macro - level changes in the future, and the long - term price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - Steel: The recovery of post - holiday demand is limited, and steel inventories are at a moderately high level. Fundamental contradictions still exist, and the upper limit of the futures price is suppressed. With important domestic meetings this week, attention should be paid to policy - related disturbances. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] - Iron ore: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate due to marginal weakening of fundamentals, macro - level disturbances, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations [7] - Scrap steel: With its own fundamentals having no prominent contradictions, the short - term price is expected to follow the trend of finished steel due to pressure on finished steel prices and poor EAF profits [9] - Coke: In the short term, the supply and demand of coke remain tight. With the continuous deterioration of coking profits, the second - round price increase has been initiated, but it still needs time to be implemented. The price is expected to fluctuate [11] - Coking coal: With supply still restricted and good auction results, the price is expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Glass: The spot sales are weak, and the short - term price fluctuates weakly. There is little chance of a short - term rebound. In the long - term, it is expected to decline if the market focuses on fundamentals [12] - Soda ash: The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely following macro - level changes, and the long - term price center will decline [14] - Manganese silicon: Cost, high steel production, and macro - policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the price center may decline [14][15] - Ferrosilicon: Although supported by high finished steel production, policy expectations, and cost, the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still faces downward pressure [16] 3.6 Index Information - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index was 2239.21, up 0.35%; the commodity 20 index was 2544.06, up 0.41%; the industrial products index was 2185.29, up 0.06%; the PPI commodity index was 1323.60, up 0.10%. - Plate Index: The steel industry chain index on October 21, 2025, was 1968.47, with a daily decline of 0.39%, a 5 - day increase of 0.42%, a 1 - month decline of 2.87%, and a decline of 6.63% since the beginning of the year [102][103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market preference is rising. The stock index futures are led by technology stocks, the implied volatility of stock index options continues to decline, and the bond market of treasury bond futures strengthens due to the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy [1]. - Before the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, a bullish view is maintained. Technology and anti - involution may become the consensus directions, and there may be opportunities in elastic sectors recently. After the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, focus on tracking the market trading volume [8]. - The bond market is affected by the change in tariff war expectations and the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy. The stock - bond跷跷板 effect may weaken [2][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The equity market continued its upward trend, with technology stocks leading for the second consecutive day. The Sci - Tec 50 and ChiNext Index both rose by around 3%. The market trading volume increased to around 1.9 trillion, and the number of daily limit stocks reached 90. It is recommended to focus on the dumbbell configuration. After the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, track the market trading volume [8]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety increased slightly by 1.47%, maintaining a liquidity level below 10 billion. The implied volatility of each option variety decreased by an average of 1.61%. It is recommended to continue to hold the covered call strategy [9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts rose by 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.16% respectively. The bond market was affected by the change in tariff war expectations and the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy. It is recommended to adopt different strategies for trends, hedging, basis, and yield curve [9][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On October 20, 2025, China released a series of economic data, including the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR), September's urban fixed - asset investment annual rate, industrial added value annual rate, total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate, and the third - quarter GDP annual rate. The US also released the forecast for the September non - farm payrolls change [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - On October 20, the Ministry of Commerce held a policy interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises. The central bank will accelerate legislation in key and emerging fields. Guangdong Province issued an action plan for AI to empower the high - quality development of the manufacturing industry. Japanese central bank officials believe there is no need to raise the benchmark interest rate next week [12][13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content. Only the headings for data collection are given [14][18][30].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for various agricultural products, including "Oscillation" for oils and fats, protein meals, corn and starch, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, and double - glue paper; "Oscillation Weakly" for sugar, paper pulp, and live pigs; and "Oscillation Strongly" for logs [1][5][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][18]. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of multiple agricultural products. For example, the price of natural rubber rebounds due to low valuation and bottom - position position - increasing; the inventory of Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate as Brazilian soybean planting progresses smoothly; the price of live pigs rebounds in the short - term but remains under supply pressure in the long - term [1][5][8]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory. The market is affected by factors such as the US government shutdown, trade negotiations, and production expectations. The outlook is for oil prices to oscillate [5]. - **Protein Meals**: With the increasing expectation of Sino - US relations easing, double - meal prices are under pressure in the low - level oscillation. The market is influenced by factors such as international soybean prices, import volume, and downstream demand. The outlook is for bean meal and rapeseed meal to oscillate [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The port inventory has slightly increased, and the spot price increase has slowed down. The market is affected by factors such as production expectations, weather, and demand. The outlook is for corn prices to oscillate [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Second - fattening continues to enter the market, and pig prices rebound in stages. However, the supply pressure remains. The market is affected by factors such as production capacity, demand, and inventory. The outlook is for pig prices to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The valuation is low, and the rubber price rebounds with increasing positions at the bottom. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - factors. The outlook is for rubber prices to oscillate and seek the bottom [1][9][10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows the rise of natural rubber. However, due to high production and inventory, the outlook is for the price to oscillate and grind the bottom, with the possibility of hitting a new low this year [11][12]. - **Cotton**: The increase in the purchase price raises the cost, and the cotton price continues to rebound. The market is affected by factors such as production expectations and purchase prices. The outlook is for cotton prices to oscillate within a range and be slightly stronger this week [12][13]. - **Sugar**: In the medium - and long - term, the driving force is downward, and the sugar price oscillates weakly. The market is affected by factors such as global supply and demand and production expectations. The outlook is for sugar prices to oscillate weakly [13]. - **Paper Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the paper pulp price runs at a low level. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - factors. The outlook is for paper pulp prices to oscillate weakly [13][15]. - **Double - Glue Paper**: It is the tender season, and the price of double - glue paper stabilizes. The market is affected by factors such as production, demand, and cost. The outlook is for the price to oscillate [16][17]. - **Logs**: Logs oscillate strongly. The market is affected by factors such as port fees, supply and demand, and inventory. The outlook is to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low positions for the 01 contract in the future weeks [18]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, corn and starch, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, paper pulp and double - glue paper, and logs [20][51][110][123][138][161]. 3. Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards, including "Strong", "Oscillation Strongly", "Oscillation", "Oscillation Weakly", "Weakly", and the corresponding expected price changes and time periods [173].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Global Market Volatility**: There is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets next week. In the overseas market, the catalytic effect of government shutdowns and data vacuums on interest - rate cut expectations is reduced, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline, increasing market volatility. In the domestic market, there are marginal policy changes, and physical work volume may rebound in the fourth quarter. Low - valued domestic commodity assets under pressure may have a rebound opportunity [7]. - **Asset Performance**: Precious metals and equity markets, which were most benefited from liquidity, may face increased short - term volatility. In the domestic market, low - valued commodity assets may rebound [7]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Index and Asset Price Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4577.6, up 1.57% daily, 2.06% weekly, down 0.87% monthly and quarterly, and up 16.75% this year. The SSE 50 futures closed at 3004.8, up 1.16% daily, 1.41% weekly, up 0.53% monthly and quarterly, and up 12.20% this year. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7052.8, with a complex set of fluctuations including a 2.08% daily increase and others [4]. - **Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.372, up 0.04% daily, down 0.01% weekly, and flat monthly and quarterly, down 0.58% this year. The 5 - year treasury bond futures closed at 105.715, up 0.06% daily, down 0.06% weekly, up 0.08% monthly and quarterly, down 0.77% this year [4]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.6219, unchanged daily, up 0.07% weekly, up 0.82% monthly, and down 9.03% this year. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1642, with various pip - based fluctuations [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Overseas, COMEX gold closed at 4374.3, up 2.49% daily, 12.5% monthly, and 65.74% this year. NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 56.93, down 0.56% daily, 8.81% monthly, and 20.79% this year. In the domestic market, the container shipping European line index was at 1769.3, up 5.19% daily, 6.93% weekly, and down 21.61% this year [4][5]. 3.2 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock markets showed a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles. Stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Dovish expectations drive prices up. Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, considering factors such as the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increased risk of the Fed's independence [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline. The container shipping European line is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter fades, and there is a lack of upward - driving force [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The industry's demand data is poor, and it is expected that policies will release positive signals. Steel, iron ore, coke, and other products are expected to fluctuate, with various influencing factors such as policy changes, supply - and - demand situations, and production data [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: They are waiting for the clarity of macro - policies, and basic metals are in a state of shock consolidation. Copper, aluminum, zinc, and other metals have different short - term expectations based on factors such as supply - and - demand, policy, and inventory [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade - tension situation has slightly eased, but the supply - and - demand pattern of energy and chemicals remains weak. Crude oil, LPG, and many other products are expected to fluctuate, with most showing a downward - trending or complex - fluctuating state due to factors such as cost, supply - and - demand, and policy [10]. - **Agriculture**: The mood has warmed up, but the trends are differentiated. Oils, protein meals, and other agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as planting progress, weather, and trade relations [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is affected by alumina production cuts, with the main contract of caustic soda falling 4.37% to 2,344 yuan/ton today [1]. - In the short - term, upstream maintenance of caustic soda is frequent in mid - October, supply pressure eases, and caustic soda spot stabilizes. In the medium - term, supply and demand of caustic soda both increase, and the spot may be in a volatile state [2]. - Looking ahead, supply and demand of caustic soda will both increase, the futures market may enter a wide - range oscillation, and it is advisable to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Caustic soda production starts low and then rises. In mid - October, there are many maintenance activities, and caustic soda production decreases month - on - month; from November to December, there is less maintenance, and production tends to increase. New capacity is concentrated in Q3, and there are still 250,000 tons of capacity to be put into production in Hebei in Q4 [2]. Demand - Alumina production cuts and new production coexist, non - aluminum industry is about to enter the off - season, and exports are average. Specifically: 1) Alumina operating capacity has reached a high level, industry profits are poor, and marginal plants have started to cut production recently; 2) Wenfeng's procurement eases the pressure on 32% caustic soda in Shandong, but Weiqiao's caustic soda receipts are equal to daily consumption, inventory is high, and the purchase price may remain stable; 3) The commissioning of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in 2026 will boost caustic soda demand, and some factories have issued caustic soda procurement tenders; 4) Non - aluminum operating rate is stable, restocking willingness is low, and the operating rate will weaken from November to December. There are no large export orders heard [2]. Valuation - Valuing liquid chlorine at 0 yuan/ton, the comprehensive cost of caustic soda is about 2,250 yuan/ton. The probability of liquid chlorine price decline is high, and the cost center of caustic soda is expected to move up [2].