Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market continues to defend and wait, while the bond market sentiment needs to be restored. Specifically, the trading volume of stock index futures is insufficient to support an upward trend; the market sentiment of stock index options is stable with differentiated volatility; and the sentiment of long - term treasury bond futures remains weak [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: The trading volume is insufficient to support an upward trend. The basis, spread, and position of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed. The Shanghai Composite Index on Thursday showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with a slight gain and continued shrinking volume to 1.72 trillion yuan. The market lacks both trading volume and a clear main line, so it continues to defend and wait. The persistence of popular sectors is limited, and the market logic is scattered. It still awaits event or main - line signals to resume an upward trend. Tactically, it is recommended to continue the dumbbell - shaped allocation in the short term and observe the window for layout adjustment [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in Dividend ETF + IM [7] Stock Index Options - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is stable, and the volatility is differentiated. The total turnover of the options market decreased by 3.20% to 67.21 billion yuan compared with the previous day. After the expiration of ETF options on Wednesday, the put - call ratio in the remaining positions continued to rise, indicating that the market sentiment is still recovering. The volatility of 500ETF and ChiNext ETF has increased to a relatively high - middle position, while other varieties have not changed much and continue to fluctuate at a medium - low level, providing space for volatility - reducing strategies [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold covered call strategies to increase returns [7] Treasury Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment of long - term bonds remains weak. The central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection of 564 billion yuan led to a decline in inter - bank funding rates, and the funding situation has eased, which is relatively favorable for short - term performance. The long - term bonds fluctuated weakly, mainly due to the undetermined new regulations on public fund fees and the lack of positive drivers such as the central bank's loose monetary policy. The stock - bond seesaw effect also exists. In the short term, the impact of the new fund fee regulations on the bond market may continue; before the important meetings in December, policy expectation disturbances may increase. In the medium term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [7][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, expect a strong - side fluctuation. For hedging strategies, pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels. For basis strategies, look for positive arbitrage opportunities and basis widening. For curve strategies, appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [9] Economic Calendar - It lists the economic data of the United States, China, and the EU from November 25th to 27th, 2025, including PPI annual rate, retail sales year - on - year, durable goods order monthly rate, initial jobless claims, industrial enterprise profits, and economic sentiment index [10] Important Information and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting on November 24th to study and formulate standards for identifying costs in disorderly price competition, aiming to manage disorderly price competition among enterprises and maintain a good market price order [11] - Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, mentioned that in the development of the embodied intelligence industry, it is necessary to balance "speed" and "bubble". The scale of the embodied intelligence industry represented by humanoid robots is growing at a rate of over 50%, and it is expected to reach a market scale of tens of billions by 2030. However, there are also risks such as product duplication and compressed R & D space [11] - The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to October, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The profit situations of different types of enterprises and industries vary [12] Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only lists the sub - items of stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific monitoring data is provided [13][17][29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Platinum**: The market has a strong bullish sentiment. It is recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities for platinum. In the long - term, a bullish view is maintained, and a long - platinum and short - palladium strategy is suggested when the platinum - palladium ratio is low [2][4]. - **Palladium**: The price is supported by spot shortages and is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot is scarce [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Platinum - **Market Performance**: On November 27, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 430.3 yuan/gram, with a 6.25% increase. On the first day of listing, the intraday maximum increase reached 12.9% [3][4]. - **Main Logic**: The weak US economic data has revived the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term spot market and long - term supply - demand expectations have not changed significantly, and the domestic market sentiment may be overheated. In the long - term, the supply concentration is high, demand will expand steadily, and the "interest - rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase the price elasticity [4]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive. The platinum price is expected to oscillate upward. Low - buying and long - position opportunities are recommended, and a long - platinum and short - palladium strategy is suggested at a low platinum - palladium ratio [4]. Palladium - **Market Performance**: On November 27, the closing price of the palladium main contract was 370.6 yuan/gram, with a 1.53% increase [3]. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical issue in Russia is the key factor affecting palladium supply. The US is investigating Russian palladium imports. There is a significant structural pressure on demand. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot is scarce, and the price has certain support at the bottom [5]. - **Outlook**: With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, the price has strong bottom support. However, it is still suppressed by its weak supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - to - long - term, and is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [5]. Commodity Index - **Special Index**: On November 27, the commodity index was 2241.06 (+0.00%), the commodity 20 index was 2543.53 (+0.00%), the industrial products index was 2200.67 (+0.00%), and the PPI commodity index was 1336.40 (+0.00%) [34]. - **Sector Index**: On November 27, the non - ferrous metal index was 2467.27. The daily increase was +0.00%, the 5 - day increase was +0.90%, the 1 - month decrease was - 1.15%, and the year - to - date increase was +6.89% [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is trading steadily above $4150, with the core driver being the strong consolidation pattern before the December policy path is finalized. The overall situation is in a "strong consolidation - waiting for a catalyst" phase [1]. - The continuous strengthening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year is the core factor for gold to maintain a narrow - range consolidation above $4150. Although the initial jobless claims and durable goods orders in the US are generally strong, they do not change the market's judgment on the December interest rate cut. The weak rebound of the US dollar and the low - level long - term US Treasury yields keep the downward trend of real interest rates stable, providing a clearer medium - term support for gold. In the context of thin holiday liquidity, the market shows the characteristics of "weak pullback and strong support" [3]. - If the December FOMC meeting continues the loose path, the gold price is expected to further break through $4200 and approach the previous high range again [3]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Information - Multiple US policymakers pointed out in public speeches that the slowdown in employment and the decline in inflation will continue to affect the policy direction, and they did not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts in December [2]. - European economic officials said that the eurozone needs to speed up internal capital expenditure and industrial chain adjustment to reduce its structural dependence on external demand, and the EU is studying a new round of industrial and trade coordination plan [2]. - Ukraine and Russia have carried out multiple rounds of communication on border security and infrastructure protection, and Russia reiterated the need to establish a verifiable mechanism for security arrangements to promote subsequent discussions [2]. - As of the week ended November 22, the number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 216,000, the lowest since April this year; the number of continued claims was 1.96 million; the four - week average of initial claims dropped to 223,800 [2]. - In September, non - defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased by 0.9%, orders excluding transportation equipment increased by 0.6%, and orders excluding defense increased by 0.1%. The overall durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5%, with the previous value revised up to 3%, and multiple manufacturing sub - items continued to show signs of recovery [2]. 2. Price Logic - Gold maintains a narrow - range consolidation above $4150, mainly due to the continuous strengthening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year. The strength of initial jobless claims and durable goods orders does not change the market's judgment on the December interest rate cut. The weak rebound of the US dollar and the low - level long - term US Treasury yields keep the downward trend of real interest rates stable, providing a clearer medium - term support for gold. In the context of thin holiday liquidity, the market shows the characteristics of "weak pullback and strong support" [3]. - The stable ETF holdings and continuous central bank gold purchases form a solid bottom for the price. Although there is still short - term technical overbought pressure, the trend momentum is gradually accumulating [3]. 3. Outlook - The weekly range for London gold is maintained at [4030 - 4200], and for London silver at [50 - 55] [4]. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices and sector indices. Among the special indices, the commodity index is 2241.06, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index is 2543.53, up 0.04%; the industrial products index is 2200.67, up 0.03%; the PPI commodity index is 1336.40, down 0.13% [46]. - For the precious metals index on November 26, 2025, the current value is 3370.94, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 1.28%, a 1 - month increase of 4.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 52.36% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and the aromatics pattern being slightly stronger. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the OPEC+ meeting on November 30 are the main factors affecting the crude oil market. The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks may cause crude oil to continue to fluctuate. The decline in the US MX price on the 26th has led to a short - term selling pressure on aromatic varieties. In the next period, the basis and inventory levels may determine the strength of different varieties [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and supply pressure persists. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue has continuously disturbed the crude oil geopolitical premium. The OPEC+ meeting is likely to continue the first - quarter production policy. Global supply surplus and inventory accumulation pressure remain. If geopolitical support weakens, the price is expected to return to a weak pattern [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price may seek lower support. With OPEC+ continuing to increase production in December and the expected Russia - Ukraine framework agreement, the crude oil price may test the important support level of WTI57. The asphalt futures price has broken through the important support of 3000 and may seek lower support. The asphalt market has a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. OPEC+ increasing production in December and the expected Russia - Ukraine agreement have led to a decline in the cracking spread and futures price of high - sulfur fuel oil. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is weak [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. It follows the decline of refined oil products. It is affected by factors such as the decline in Russian refined oil exports, shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure is increasing, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply and demand situation is changing [12]. - **PX**: The price difference between US and Asian aromatics has converged, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the profit support has strengthened under the concession of naphtha. The overall supply - demand situation of PX is relatively stable, and short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuation of blending oil sentiment and cost support [14]. - **PTA**: The sentiment of blending oil has cooled down, but the short - term supply - demand pattern still has support. The PTA load is at a relatively low level, and the high load of downstream polyester provides support. The spot profit has resistance to rebound, but the basis is relatively strong [15]. - **Pure Benzene**: The US gasoline is weak, and pure benzene is mainly in a volatile state. There are many news about pure benzene and styrene, with both positive and negative factors. The driving force of the blending oil narrative is questionable, and attention should be paid to the trend of cracking spreads and price differences between the US and Asia [17][18]. - **Styrene**: The blending oil narrative has faded, and styrene has returned to a volatile state. After the extrusion of the blending oil premium, the downward space of styrene is limited. The balance sheet shows that the contradiction between pure benzene and styrene from December to January is not significant [19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price center is mainly adjusted in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of oil - based plants. The supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has no further positive support, and the port inventory is gradually increasing. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range adjustment in the short term [21][22]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it passively follows the upstream. The upstream polymerization cost has decreased, and the downstream demand is weakening. The inventory of short - fiber has slightly increased [24][25]. - **Bottle Chip**: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is in a stalemate. The upstream polymerization cost has decreased, and the price of bottle chips has followed the decline. The processing fee has expanded passively, but the supply - demand drive is weak, and the profit repair space is limited [26][27]. - **Methanol**: The support from port inventory reduction and import contraction is limited, and it is difficult to continue the upward trend. The overall supply data is still strong, and downstream demand is weak. The upward space after the futures price rebound is limited [29]. - **Urea**: The inventory has significantly decreased, and the bullish sentiment remains. Although the supply - demand pattern of urea is still characterized by strong supply and weak demand, the significant inventory reduction has brought bullish sentiment. The trading volume may slow down after the factory raises the price [30]. - **LLDPE**: The support from maintenance is limited, and LLDPE is in a volatile state. The futures price of LLDPE is affected by factors such as oil price fluctuations, geopolitical premiums, and its own supply - demand situation. The upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [33]. - **PP**: The fundamental pressure still exists, and PP still needs to pay attention to maintenance changes. The current maintenance support is limited, the production release pressure is large, and the mid - stream inventory is at a high level. Future attention should be paid to the changes and sustainability of maintenance [34]. - **PL**: The spot is strong, and PL is in a volatile state. The supply restart is delayed, the overall supply is tight, the enterprise inventory is controllable, and the downstream follow - up is active [35]. - **PVC**: High inventory suppresses the price, and PVC may anchor production reduction. The high - inventory removal of PVC is slow, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production reduction. The production is at a high level, downstream demand is weak, and exports have increased [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand is weak, and the valuation is low. Caustic soda is in a volatile state. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can promote upstream production reduction. High inventory in the upstream and downstream is putting pressure on the spot price [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Price Difference**: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period price differences for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PP, etc. [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis, its change values, and warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is given [40]. - **Inter - variety Price Difference**: The latest values and changes of inter - variety price differences for different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented [42]. - **Chemical Basis and Price Difference Monitoring** - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided for this part.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, it gives outlooks such as "oscillating upward", "oscillating sideways", and "oscillating downward" [7][8][11]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related commodities, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It believes that the overall market shows a pattern of diversified trends, with some commodities expected to be strong, some weak, and others remaining in a range - bound state [7][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Categories Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has stabilized and may continue to oscillate upward [7]. - **Logic**: Macro - environment factors include expected Fed rate cuts in December and potential progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, leading to a weaker US dollar and a rebound in crude oil. From an industrial perspective, attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and the uncertainty of US biodiesel policies. South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and domestic imported soybean arrivals are expected to be at a relatively high level. Palm oil production in Malaysia in November is expected to have a narrowing month - on - month increase, and exports have declined. Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low, and Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. Domestic rapeseed supply is tight, but future supply is expected to increase [7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate upward [7]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to South American weather and consider opportunistically laying out long positions in M2605 [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, La Nina is expected to occur, and South American agricultural regions will face climate differentiation, which may affect the growth of new - season corn and soybeans. The US soybean planting area is expected to expand in 2026, and US soybean exports are expected to decline. Domestically, China's soybean import profit has recovered, and the oil mill's soybean inventory is high, while the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean meal are expected to oscillate upward [8]. Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: There is a short - term supply - demand tightness, and prices will oscillate at a high level [9]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand situation is tight, with factors such as upstream farmers' reluctance to sell, downstream rigid - demand restocking, differences in grain quality and regional price differentials, and traders' rush to buy and transport grains driving up prices. The tight transportation capacity also exacerbates the situation [10]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate at a high level [9]. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions [11]. - **Logic**: In the short term, supply is abundant, and demand is insufficient. In the medium term, there is pressure on large - pig inventory, and prices are in a downward cycle. In the long term, sow production capacity is expected to decline, and supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [11]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate downward. The near - term contracts are weak, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [11]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It will oscillate slightly upward [13]. - **Logic**: Affected by the flood situation in southern Thailand, the market is relatively strong. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market. Demand has not changed significantly recently, and the buying sentiment of downstream enterprises is still acceptable [14]. - **Outlook**: Prices will continue to oscillate widely with high elasticity, and it is difficult to have a trend - based market [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It will maintain range - bound oscillations [15]. - **Logic**: The recent stability of raw material butadiene trading and the strong performance of natural rubber support the market. The butadiene price rebounded after a decline, but there are still some selling pressures at high prices [15]. - **Outlook**: Before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene, it is advisable to short at high prices [15]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Cotton prices fluctuate narrowly, and the upward and downward space is limited [16]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase in production, and the supply is increasing. On the demand side, there is buying support when prices fall. On the inventory side, the commercial inventory is accumulating, and the pressure on prices may decrease after entering the destocking cycle [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate upward, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [17]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Sugar prices rebound, and there is short - term support at the bottom [17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long term, sugar prices are in a downward trend, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. However, in the short term, the 01 contract shows some support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, prices will oscillate downward; in the short term, there is support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the logic of near - term and far - term futures contracts is differentiated [19]. - **Logic**: The recent decline in futures prices is due to the withdrawal of long - position funds. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include potential shortages of delivery warehouse receipts, the upward trend of hardwood pulp prices, and relatively high non - bleached softwood pulp prices. Negative factors include a certain amount of warehouse receipts to be delivered, expected non - reduction of softwood pulp imports, and a decreasing proportion of softwood pulp use [19]. - **Outlook**: Pulp futures will oscillate widely, with the 01 contract having an expected upper pressure range of 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the 03 and 05 contracts having an upper pressure range of 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton [19]. Offset Printing Paper - **Viewpoint**: Offset printing paper will oscillate narrowly [20]. - **Logic**: The continuous decline in raw material prices affects the market sentiment negatively. Social demand is still weak. Supply is stable, downstream printing factory orders are limited, and the cost support from wood pulp is weakening [20]. - **Outlook**: There is still supply pressure. There is price support in the short term due to publishers' pick - up, but it may oscillate downward in the medium term [21]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The valuation is not high, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Logic**: There is no obvious buying intention. The fundamental situation is weak, and there is a lack of upward momentum. New Zealand's shipments to China are increasing, and demand is expected to remain weak. The market is in a state of "weak supply and demand", and the inventory will gradually decrease [22]. - **Outlook**: The supply will remain loose, demand has no expectation of increase, and the spot price is under pressure, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation at the bottom [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: On the evening of November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management may be shifting, and key figures might turn dovish in the next two weeks. Attention should be paid to the speeches of key Fed voting members and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic: The internal driving force remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has remained stable since May, indicating that the central bank may not be in a hurry to further relax policies in the short term. New and second - hand housing sales have rebounded month - on - month, land supply has increased, but land transactions remain low. The demand and production capacity of real - estate front - end and back - end physical work have declined month - on - month [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish Fed October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payroll data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. Global equity sectors and base metals like copper were under pressure. However, the New York Fed President's dovish speech on Friday boosted the December rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4. With the market sentiment lifted, short - term risk appetite may improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to allocate stocks, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, and the Fed's expectation management may shift. Key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks. Focus on key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: The issuance of policy - based financial instruments, special bonds, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has been stable, suggesting no urgent need for short - term policy relaxation. Housing sales have rebounded, but land transactions are low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Fed's mixed signals initially pressured the December rate - cut expectation and boosted the US dollar index. The New York Fed President's speech later changed the situation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4 and look for low - price allocation opportunities in stocks, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Hotspots have limited persistence. Wait for the main line. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on incremental funds [9]. - Stock Index Options: The market is gradually dominated by long - term factors. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on option market liquidity [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term bond market disturbances exist. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policies [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel and Iron Ore: The off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the iron ore price remains resilient. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on special bond issuance, steel exports, iron production, and other factors [9]. - Coke: The cost is decreasing, and there is a strong expectation of price cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - Coking Coal: Coal mines are accumulating inventory, and the market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - Silicon Iron: Market confidence is low, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - Manganese Silicon: Inventory pressure is high, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on cost prices and foreign quotes [9]. - Glass: Cold - repair is uncertain, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on spot sales [9]. - Soda Ash: Production is flat, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The Fed's rate - cut expectation is fluctuating, and the copper price is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policies [9]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation persists, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on ore production and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - Zinc: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - Lead: The delivery of LME lead has slowed down, and the lead price may stop falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - Nickel: Environmental issues in Indonesian MHP production are causing price fluctuations. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on macro - geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies [9]. - Stainless Steel: The rebound of nickel price has driven the recovery of the stainless - steel market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - Tin: Market sentiment has improved, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - Industrial Silicon: The oversupply pressure remains, and the silicon price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and policy changes [9]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations are fluctuating, and the polysilicon price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and domestic photovoltaic policies [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The demand expectation has boosted the lithium price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and supply pressure persists. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [11]. - LPG: Supply is relatively tight, and the basis is at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - Asphalt: The price is oscillating around 3000. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on crude oil prices [11]. - Methanol: The shutdown progress is rapid, and the price may rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - energy and overseas shutdown dynamics [11]. - Urea: Inventory has significantly decreased, and the sentiment is bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on enterprise inventory reduction [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price center is mainly adjusted widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and trade frictions [11]. - PX: The cost is average, and the supply - demand pattern is okay. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and aromatics blending for oil [11]. - PTA: The basis is strong, and the profit is slightly repaired. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes [11]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on downstream yarn - mill purchasing and peak - season demand [11]. - Bottle - Chip: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new - device commissioning [11]. - Propylene: The spot is strong, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [11]. - PP: The fundamental pressure remains, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Plastic: The oil price has fallen, and the maintenance support is limited. The short - term judgment is a weakly volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Styrene: The oil - blending narrative has faded, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - PVC: High inventory is suppressing the price, and it may be linked to production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - Caustic Soda: The value is low, and the supply - demand is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on market sentiment, production, and demand [11]. - Oils and Fats: Market sentiment has stabilized, and the price may continue to be weakly bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - Protein Meal: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the M15 spread is narrowing. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade frictions [11]. - Corn/Starch: The supply - demand is temporarily tight, and the price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on demand, macro - situation, and weather [11]. - Live Pigs: The live - pig spot price is weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - Natural Rubber: The impact of floods in the production area needs further observation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations [11]. - Cotton: There is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the price is oscillating in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand and inventory [11]. - Sugar: In the long - term, the driving force is downward, but the cost provides short - term support. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on imports and Brazilian production [11]. - Pulp: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the futures logic for near - and far - term contracts is different. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [11]. - Offset Paper: The raw material price has fallen, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill production [11]. - Logs: The price of logs has fallen, and it is in a low - valuation area. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on shipping volume and sales volume [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 27, 2025, equity index futures declined while CGB Futures traded sideways; precious metals performed strongly, and the energy and chemical sectors remained weak [2][9][11] - Gold and silver prices are likely to hit the upper limit of the range again if a December rate cut is confirmed and the expectation of Hassett as Fed chair is further consolidated, with silver showing higher elasticity. Short - term, maintain a range - bound bullish bias [16][17] - The resilience of tin's supply - demand fundamentals is pushing the central level of tin prices higher [23][24] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Financial futures: IH fell by 0.11%, IM fell by 0.11%, TL fell by 0.01% [9] - Commodity futures: The top three gainers are Platinum (up 6.2%), Silver (up 3.4% with open interest increasing by 11.1% MoM), and Tin (up 2.1% with open interest increasing by 22.6% MoM). The top three decliners are Lithium Carbonate (down 1.7% with open interest increasing by 6.2% MoM), Bitumen (down 1.4% with open interest increasing by 1.4% MoM), and Polyester Staple Fiber (down 1.2% with open interest decreasing by 3.4% MoM) [10][11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Gold & Silver**: On November 27, Gold rose 0.1% to 947.16 yuan/g, Silver rose 3.4% to 12525 yuan/kg. Gold's rise was driven by a weaker USD, rising odds of a December 25bp rate cut, and forward pricing of the "Hassett Fed" framework. Year - to - date, gold/silver surged over 55%/nearly 80% [15][16][17] - **Tin**: On November 27, Tin rose 2.1% to 302200 yuan/ton. Supply remains tight due to slow resumption in Wa State, reduced exports from Indonesia, and unstable production in Africa. Demand is growing due to the rate - cut cycle in the US and Europe, growth in the semiconductor industry, and inventory restocking [22][23][24] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The US will extend the exemptions from tariffs imposed over issues related to technology transfer and intellectual property rights with China until November 10, 2026 [27] - The NDRC held a symposium on unordered price competition cost identification on Nov 24 to formulate cost identification standards and curb such practices [27] 3.2.2 Industry News - GFE launched Platinum and Palladium Futures/Options on Nov 27, with a combined turnover of 42.28 billion CNY (Platinum: 29.231 billion CNY; Palladium: 13.049 billion CNY) [28]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core View of the Report - Recently, the RMB has experienced a continuous appreciation trend, with the USD/Offshore RMB exchange rate breaking through the 7.08 and 7.07 levels, reaching a low near 7.06. There are three main reasons behind this: the weak Q3 employment data in the US and the deteriorating private - sector job growth in the latest ADP data have increased concerns about a non - linear rise in unemployment rates in October and November, leading to a higher expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, a decline in US Treasury yields, and a narrowing of the China - US interest rate spread, which promotes RMB appreciation; the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has been continuously adjusted in a stronger direction, reaching 7.0796 on November 26, a one - year high, and the positive signal from the China - US high - level call on November 24 has alleviated short - term concerns about tariff escalation; the good performance of the equity market and the continuous net inflow of northbound funds throughout the year have boosted RMB appreciation, and the expected increase in seasonal corporate settlement demand at the end of the year may further consolidate the RMB's appreciation momentum [2] 3) Summary by Related Content - **RMB Appreciation Trend**: The USD/Offshore RMB exchange rate has broken through 7.08 and 7.07, reaching around 7.06 [2] - **Reasons for RMB Appreciation**: - **US Economic Data and Fed Expectations**: Weak US Q3 employment data and deteriorating ADP data on private - sector jobs have increased concerns about unemployment rate hikes in October and November, leading to a higher expectation of a December Fed rate cut, a decline in US Treasury yields, and a narrowing of the China - US interest rate spread [2] - **Central Parity Rate and Diplomatic Signals**: The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar has been adjusted strongly, reaching 7.0796 on November 26, a one - year high. The November 24 China - US high - level call sent positive signals, alleviating short - term tariff concerns [2] - **Equity Market and Capital Flows**: The good performance of the equity market and the continuous net inflow of northbound funds throughout the year have promoted RMB appreciation, and the expected increase in year - end corporate settlement demand may further strengthen the appreciation momentum [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The refinery utilization rate in the US accelerated its recovery. Although the refinery utilization rate continued to rise from the bottom to 92.3%, the processing volume increased by 211,000 barrels per day, and the crude oil production decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 1,381.4 million barrels per day, the net import of crude oil increased by 1.046 million barrels per day, leading to an accumulation of commercial crude oil inventories by 2.774 million barrels in the week ending November 21. After the refinery utilization rate rebounded, both gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, the apparent demand for gasoline rebounded, and the apparent demand for diesel declined. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased slightly, but the single - week data has limited indication [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog US Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Inventory Data - **Commercial Crude Oil Inventory**: Increased by 2.774 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 3.426 million barrels in the previous period [4][6]. - **Cushing Crude Oil Inventory**: Decreased by 68,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 698,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Strategic Petroleum Inventory**: Increased by 498,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 533,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Gasoline Inventory**: Increased by 2.513 million barrels, compared with an increase of 2.327 million barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Diesel Inventory**: Increased by 1.147 million barrels, compared with an increase of 171,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Jet Fuel Inventory**: Increased by 370,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 146,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Fuel Oil Inventory**: Decreased by 531,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 287,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Total Inventory of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (excluding SPR)**: Increased by 1.562 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 2.715 million barrels in the previous period [6]. US Crude Oil Production, Demand and Trade Data - **Crude Oil Production**: Decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 1,381.4 million barrels per day [4][6]. - **Refinery Crude Oil Processing Volume**: Increased by 211,000 barrels per day to 16.443 million barrels per day [4][6]. - **Apparent Demand for Refined Oil Products**: Increased to 20.24 million barrels per day from 20.157 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Apparent Demand for Gasoline**: Increased to 8.726 million barrels per day from 8.528 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Apparent Demand for Diesel**: Decreased to 3.362 million barrels per day from 3.882 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Crude Oil Import**: Increased to 6.436 million barrels per day from 5.95 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Crude Oil Export**: Decreased to 3.598 million barrels per day from 4.158 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Refinery Utilization Rate**: Increased to 92.3% from 90% in the previous period [4][6]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The weakening of the US dollar, the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut, and the enhanced expectation of a more dovish "Hassett Fed" policy have led to a continued strong - oscillating pattern for gold and silver. Geopolitical conflicts and energy - chain risks have added additional support. The mid - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - The weakening US economic data, including retail sales, consumer confidence, employment, and PPI, has increased the market's bet on a December interest rate cut. The probability of a 25bp cut in December is over 80% according to swap contracts [3]. - Gold's structural support is solid. Central bank gold purchases remain high, physical demand is resilient, and there is a potential marginal inflow in the ETF segment. Since the beginning of the year, gold and silver have risen by over 55% and nearly 80% respectively, driven by the decline in global real interest rates, the weakening of the dollar cycle, and central bank purchases [3]. - If the December interest rate cut is realized and the expectation of Hassett becoming the Fed chair is further strengthened, gold and silver prices may hit the upper limit of the range again, with silver having higher elasticity [3]. Group 2: Key Information - US economic data is weak. Retail sales in September only slightly rebounded, consumer confidence had the largest decline this year, and employment and PPI were also mild. The probability of a December interest rate cut continues to rise [2]. - Tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with multiple night attacks between Israel and Gaza. There is a risk of the local war spreading, and the global risk appetite is suppressed [2]. - The European energy chain faces winter uncertainties. Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil and power facilities have made European countries re - evaluate winter gas and power security and discuss additional reserves and supply alternatives [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The weekly price ranges are maintained at [4030 - 4200] for London gold and [50 - 55] for London silver [4]. Group 4: Index Information Special Index - The commodity index is 2241.06, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index is 2543.53, up 0.04%; the industrial products index is 2200.67, up 0.03%; the PPI commodity index is 1336.40, down 0.13% [44]. Sector Index - The precious metals index on November 26, 2025, is up 0.25% today, up 1.28% in the past 5 days, up 4.87% in the past month, and up 52.36% year - to - date [45].