Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - After the Fourth Plenary Session and the progress in Sino - US negotiations, market sentiment has improved. Steel and iron ore prices have risen, and the sector is expected to be driven by macro and policy factors. In the short term, prices of various products in the black building materials industry are expected to oscillate [1]. - Although there are signs of recovery in the steel market, the inventory is still at a relatively high level, and the fundamentals have limited highlights. The iron ore fundamentals have slightly weakened, and the scrap steel price is expected to follow the finished products. The supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and the coking coal fundamentals are healthy. The alloy prices are supported by cost and output but face supply - demand pressure. The glass and soda ash prices are in an oscillating and weakening state [1][2] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: Affected by previous concentrated arrivals, the current arrival level has dropped rapidly. Considering the normal growth of shipments, the arrival level is expected to stabilize. The fundamentals of iron ore have slightly weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap steel has no prominent fundamental contradictions. With poor electric furnace profits and steel mill production reduction expectations, its price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [1] Carbon Element - Coke: Environmental protection restrictions affect both supply and demand, but the overall impact is limited. The short - term supply - demand structure is still tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [2] - Coking coal: Supply is difficult to improve, and the middle and lower reaches are actively purchasing. The upstream coal mine inventory is low, but considering the possible seasonal weakening of demand, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: Cost reduction is limited, and steel production is still high, which supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is obvious upward pressure on the price [2] - Ferrosilicon: High steel production and firm cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is expected to be limited [2] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. After the negative feedback between futures and spot, the short - term price shows an oscillating and weakening trend. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [2] - Soda ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro fluctuations, and the long - term price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Steel - The spot market trading volume has improved, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are not good. Steel production has increased, demand has recovered, and inventory has continued to decline but at a slow pace. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to domestic policies and Sino - US trade negotiations [7] Iron Ore - The spot market price is strong. Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased, and port inventory has decreased slightly. The fundamentals have slightly weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to macro and policy factors [8][9] Scrap Steel - The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. With poor electric furnace profits and steel mill production reduction expectations, the price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [10] Coke - The second - round price increase has been implemented. Supply has tightened, and demand may decline slightly. The short - term supply - demand structure is still tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [11] Coking Coal - Supply recovery is slow, and the middle and lower reaches are actively purchasing. The upstream inventory is low, but considering the possible seasonal weakening of demand, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][12] Glass - Manufacturers in Shahe and Hubei have continued to accumulate inventory, and the spot price has continued to decline. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the short - term price shows an oscillating and weakening trend. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed [12] Soda Ash - Production has slightly fluctuated, and downstream procurement is stable. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro fluctuations, and the long - term price center will decline [14] Manganese Silicon - The futures price is strong, but the spot market is cold. Cost reduction is limited, and steel production is high, which supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is obvious upward pressure on the price [14][15] Ferrosilicon - The cost support is strengthened, and the futures price has slightly increased. High steel production and firm cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is expected to be limited [16]

Group 1: Report Overview - On October 27, the main contract of log futures decreased with reduced positions, with an intraday decline of over 5% and hitting 780 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 6-meter medium H at Lanshan Port remained unchanged at 800 - 810 yuan/cubic meter, and the foreign quotation was 120 US dollars/JAS with no transactions [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Today's Fluctuation - Information aspect: China imposed counter - measures on the US 301 ship fees on October 14, increasing the whole - ship cost of logs by about 10%, causing the log futures to rise. After the China - US economic and trade consultations on October 25 - 26, the market expected the cancellation of the special port fees, leading to long - position reduction and price decline [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The fundamentals are gradually weakening. Port arrivals are concentrated recently, and traders' active inventory reduction pressures the spot market. The sales of laminated timber have declined, and the price of export - grade timber is under pressure. Also, the foreign quotation of 120 US dollars/UAS is difficult to conclude deals and is expected to be readjusted [3]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - The fundamental situation of the log market remains weak, with no clear positive drivers. The peak - season expectation has weakened, port inventory will gradually increase, and the demand is weak with low trader purchasing willingness. After the peak season in mid - fourth quarter, logs may experience seasonal inventory accumulation again [4]. Group 4: Investment Suggestion - The short - term market sentiment is bearish, and the market will return to a weak operation rhythm. Speculative investors are advised to wait and see, and pay attention to the results of subsequent China - US negotiations on port fees [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The log market is expected to remain weak in the short - term. The combination of information and fundamental factors has intensified the short - term bearish sentiment, and the market has returned to a weak operating rhythm. It is recommended that speculators mainly wait and see, and pay attention to the results of subsequent negotiations on the special port charges [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On October 27, the main contract of log futures decreased with reduced positions, with an intraday decline of over 5% and reaching 780 yuan/cubic meter. In the spot market, the quotation of 6 - meter medium H at Lanshan Port was 800 - 810 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The foreign quotation was 120 US dollars/JAS, with no transactions [2]. Reasons for Market Movement - Information aspect: After China's counter - measures against the US 301 ship charges on October 14, the log futures rose. But after the Sino - US economic and trade consultations on October 25 - 26, the market expected the cancellation of the special port charges, leading to long - position reduction and a decline in the futures price [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The fundamentals are gradually weakening. There is a concentrated arrival of goods at ports recently, and the decline in sales of laminated wood has pressured the price of imported timber. Also, it is difficult to conclude deals at the current foreign quotation, and the quotation is expected to be readjusted [3]. Fundamental Situation - The fundamentals of the log market remain weak, with no clear bullish drivers. The peak - season expectation has weakened, and port inventories are expected to gradually accumulate. Although foreign price increases have boosted valuation, the weak demand and low willingness of traders to take delivery have led to large selling pressure after the price increase. Log imports from New Zealand are seasonally increasing in the fourth quarter, and the inventory level is still relatively high considering the large decline in demand [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 43, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing [3] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of October 26, the issuance progress of new special bonds reached 86.6%, with 112.4 billion yuan issued this week, a week - on - week increase of 92.3 billion yuan, and 154.9 billion yuan planned for next week [4] - As of October 26, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 1.3 billion yuan, with 1.3 billion yuan issued this week, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 billion yuan, and the issuance progress reached 84.1%, with 17 billion yuan planned for next week [5][7] - As of October 26, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 132.5 billion yuan [6] - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 165.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 185.5 billion yuan, and the net financing is expected to be 178 billion yuan next week. As of October 26, the issuance progress of new local bonds reached 86.2% [8] - As of October 26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds reached 84.0% [12] - As of October 26, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance reached 85.0%, and the net financing is expected to be 178 billion yuan next week [15] - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 23.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.9 billion yuan, and the net financing is expected to be 0 billion yuan next week. This week, the net financing of government bonds was 189.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 192.5 billion yuan [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, against the backdrop of tight scrap and ore supplies, there is a high risk of contraction in the smelting sector, and the supply - demand balance of base metals is expected to tighten, which supports base metal prices. However, weak demand limits the upside potential of prices. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, copper prices are showing a strong trend. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment has warmed up with the release of the communiqué and the resumption of Sino - US trade negotiations. On the supply - demand side, copper ore supply disruptions are increasing, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have risen, leading to a decline in electrolytic copper production. Although the peak demand season has arrived, high prices have suppressed demand to some extent. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and considering the improved macro - sentiment, copper prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: As the operating capacity of smelters declines, alumina prices are oscillating. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has reduced output, but the reduction is insufficient, and China still maintains a strong inventory build - up trend. Ore prices have shown a slight decline, so there is still pressure on the upside of the disk price. - **Outlook**: Alumina is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the potential increase in volatility [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The risk of Mozal's shutdown has intensified, and aluminum prices have slightly rebounded. - **Logic**: The macro - tone at home and abroad is positive. On the supply side, some replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity and utilization rate are at a high level. On the demand side, orders in the peak season have improved marginally, and social inventories have started to decline. The current copper - aluminum price ratio is above 4.0, and the valuation of aluminum is relatively low. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias. In the medium term, the supply increase is limited, and demand remains resilient, so the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise [11]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: With strong cost support, the disk is oscillating upward. - **Logic**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum is difficult to change in the short term, providing strong cost support. Although some enterprises have slightly reduced production due to unclear policies and weak demand, the overall reduction is not large. Demand has improved marginally, and social inventories and warehouse receipts have continued to rise. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, due to unclear policy implementation and potential raw material disruptions, prices are expected to continue to oscillate [12]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With optimistic macro - expectations and an open export window, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment is optimistic. In the short term, zinc ore supply has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, so their production willingness is strong. Domestic consumption is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand expectations are average. The overall fundamentals are in surplus, but the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc has not ended. - **Outlook**: In October, zinc ingot production will remain high, and demand recovery is limited, so inventories may continue to accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate [14]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Due to supply disruptions in recycled lead and low social inventories, lead prices have risen significantly. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead has increased. On the supply side, the profitability of recycled lead smelters has improved, and production has increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has recovered, and demand remains high. - **Outlook**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar may still decline. After the holidays, lead supply growth has been slightly lower than expected, and demand is in the peak season. Lead prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With LME nickel inventories exceeding 250,000 tons, nickel prices are oscillating widely. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the disk. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Ore supply is relatively loose, and the reality of excess electrolytic nickel is serious, with significant inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely [18]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With low warehouse receipts, the stainless - steel disk is rising. - **Logic**: Nickel - iron prices have weakened, and chromium prices are relatively stable. Stainless - steel production has increased in September, but the sustainability of demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season needs to be monitored. Social inventories have decreased slightly, and warehouse receipts have continued to decline. - **Outlook**: Downstream demand is slightly lower than expected, and cost support has a certain boosting effect on steel prices. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With supply constraints remaining, tin prices are oscillating. - **Logic**: There have been continuous supply disruptions in tin. Indonesia has taken measures to restrict supply, and the resumption of production in the Wa State's Manxiang mining area is slow. The domestic tin ore supply is tight, and the processing fee for tin concentrate remains low. - **Outlook**: With tight supply at the mine end, tin prices are expected to oscillate [23]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index increased by 0.70% to 2250.50, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.58% to 2546.54, the industrial products index increased by 1.12% to 2229.03, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.86% to 1342.15 [148]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 23, 2025, increased by 0.70% on the day, 1.60% in the past 5 days, 3.15% in the past month, and 7.08% since the beginning of the year [149].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are expected to be in a weak or fluctuating state, while others are affected by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, trade relations, and policies [5][6][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1.油脂 - **观点**：继续偏弱运行，关注近期低点支撑有效性，中期展望为豆油、棕油、菜油均震荡偏弱 [5]. - **逻辑**：宏观上，美国联邦政府“停摆”，中美贸易谈判将再度进行，市场对美联储降息预期强等；产业端，美豆数据暂停更新，收获进度达7层，单产下调概率大，巴西新季大豆预期产量增3.6%，种植进度21.7%，国内进口大豆到港量或处高位，豆油去库慢；马棕10月或累库，印尼生柴需求预期增加，印度植物油进口或季节性下降；10月后国内菜油库存或止降回升 [5]. 3.1.2.蛋白粕 - **观点**：空头获利了结，双粕低位大幅反弹，中期展望为豆粕、菜粕震荡 [6]. - **逻辑**：国际上，中美月底会晤前将在马来磋商，阿根廷挤占美豆出口份额，巴西大豆对华出口增加，巴西新作播种进度同比偏快；国内方面，市场采购美豆预期存变数，空头获利了结引发反弹，美豆进口增长预期叠加现实供应压力，期现货价格反弹高度有限，长期四季度国内豆粕供应充足，2026年一季度或有少量缺口，需求端豆粕消费刚需或稳中有增，水产消费淡季菜粕弱于豆粕 [6]. 3.1.3.玉米及淀粉 - **观点**：现货涨跌不一，期货震荡企稳，中期展望为震荡 [7]. - **逻辑**：国内玉米价格涨跌互现，东北丰产预期强，面临卖压冲击，华北受降雨影响，粮质霉变风险高，收割进度受扰，销区用粮企业刚需补库；短期反弹有港口缺货、直属库收购等因素，卖压驱动未完全释放，维持震荡偏弱看法，长期库存趋紧，市场短空长多 [9]. 3.1.4.生猪 - **观点**：下游抵触高价，猪价震荡，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [10]. - **逻辑**：供应上，短期二育少量入场，10月出栏量环比增5%，中期四季度出栏量预计增加，长期能繁母猪产能开始去化；需求为消费淡季，肉猪比价下跌；库存二育小幅累库；短期供需宽松，猪周期下行，长期产能去化后供应压力有望减轻 [10]. 3.1.5.天然橡胶 - **观点**：继续震荡整理运行，中期展望为震荡 [11]. - **逻辑**：天胶阶段性见底和估值偏低带来超跌反弹，RU抛储超预期，01合约仍可能炒作，NR标胶进口量低、仓单少、原料坚挺；基本面无新增信息，供应压力不大，需求端四季度轮胎出口走弱预期内，价格单边难把控，关注增仓上涨持续性 [13]. 3.1.6.合成橡胶 - **观点**：盘面延续窄幅震荡，中期展望为震荡 [15]. - **逻辑**：今年产量偏高是盘面压力，下游需求增加但增速不及产量，社会库存高位；原料丁二烯价格上周跌后整理，宏观消息和刚需买盘提振成交气氛 [15]. 3.1.7.棉花 - **观点**：成本提升抬高郑棉估值，关注贸易磋商动态，中期展望为震荡 [16]. - **逻辑**：国庆前棉价下行，节后跌势放缓反弹，原因一是新疆棉花产量预估下调，二是籽棉收购价坚挺推高皮棉加工成本；短期棉价易涨难跌，四季度上涨后有回调风险，关注中美贸易谈判 [17]. 3.1.8.白糖 - **观点**：外弱内强，糖价低位盘整，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [19]. - **逻辑**：中长期25/26榨季全球糖市供应过剩，主产国产量预计增加，糖价熊市格局；短期巴西中南部食糖产量下降但出口增加，国内销量一般，库存同比提高，进口高值，外盘走低，内盘抗跌，后续北半球新糖供应期糖价走弱压力增大 [19]. 3.1.9.纸浆 - **观点**：期货连续反弹，现货维持弱势，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [20]. - **逻辑**：期货延续反弹，现货清淡，十一后期货底部震荡；供需无明显利多，市场关注纸浆虚实结合比和年底集中注销；基本面难大涨，欧洲消费疲弱，中国刚需稳定，追涨情绪不高，国内经济偏弱，需警惕废纸系影响，01合约低位震荡，偏空交易 [20]. 3.1.10.双胶纸 - **观点**：双胶纸维持窄幅震荡，中期展望为震荡 [21]. - **逻辑**：盘面在4200元一线震荡，10月底招标旺季，现货重心持稳；纸厂排产情况不一，经销商稳价出货，市场订单跟进不足，下游印厂刚需采买，交投不活跃；成本端木浆市场少数下跌，招标季纸价有底部支撑，但华南新产能放量或牵制纸价 [22]. 3.1.11.原木 - **观点**：原木震荡运行，中期展望为震荡 [24]. - **逻辑**：特别港务费出台后盘面短期提振，海运费上涨提高估值，但现货10月末有下调预期；基本面偏弱，重庆国产材交割利空，港口出库量回落，库存累库；四季度新西兰原木进口季节性增长，库存绝对水平不低，房地产需求疲软，交割面暂无明显驱动，关注新西兰发运情况 [24]. 3.2.品种数据监测 - The report lists different product categories such as "油脂油料", "玉米、淀粉", "棉花、棉纱", "白糖", "纸浆及双胶纸", "原木", but no specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3.评级标准 - The report provides a rating standard including "偏强" (expected increase > 2 standard deviations), "震荡偏强" (expected increase 1 - 2 standard deviations), "震荡" (expected increase/decrease within ±1 standard deviation), "震荡偏弱" (expected decrease 1 - 2 standard deviations), "偏弱" (expected decrease > 2 standard deviations), with a time - cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and 1 standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [178]. 3.4.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**：Not provided with specific data. - **特色指数**：The "商品20指数" is 2546.54, up 0.58%; the "工业品指数" is 2229.03, up 1.12%; the "PPI商品指数" is 1342.15, up 0.86% [180]. - **板块指数**：The "农产品指数" on 2025 - 10 - 23 is 928.25, with a daily increase of 0.45%, a 5 - day increase of 1.29%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.42%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.77% [181].

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - Most domestic commodity futures rose, with the black - series leading the gains [1] - The CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.38%, a weekly increase of 28.55, a quarterly decrease of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 16.83% [3] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 futures had a daily increase of 2.05%, a weekly increase of 10.18, and a year - to - date increase of 12.91% [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - The current volatility level in the overseas macro - environment is in a low - level accumulation stage. The "bad news is good news" logic may be coming to an end, and the internal volatility energy in the US is being accumulated, with a possible staged increase [7] - The US economic aggregate showed little growth, with a "K - shaped" structural characteristic. Government shutdown may widen the error and expected difference in inflation data. US regional banks are under pressure again [7] Domestic Macro - China's economic and financial data in September showed relative resilience, with structural highlights. Policy expectations were further strengthened, which is expected to boost physical work volume in the fourth quarter [7] - China's Q3 GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. September's social retail sales increased by 3.0% year - on - year [7] Group 3: Asset Views - There is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets next week. In the overseas market, the catalytic elasticity of government shutdown and data vacuum on interest - rate cut expectations has decreased, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline [7] - In the domestic market, with marginal changes in policy, physical work volume may rebound in the fourth quarter. Low - valued domestic commodity assets that were under pressure may have a rebound opportunity [7] Group 4: View Highlights Financial - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and rise due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles, with concerns about the crowding of small - and micro - cap funds [8] - Stock index options are expected to fluctuate as the overall market turnover declined slightly, with concerns about the insufficient liquidity in the options market [8] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment stage due to geopolitical and trade easing, and are expected to fluctuate, with attention to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8] Shipping - Container shipping on the European line is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward - driving force, with attention to the rate of freight - price decline in September [8] Black Building Materials - Steel is expected to fluctuate as its fundamentals have marginally improved, with attention to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [8] Energy Chemical - Crude oil is expected to fluctuate due to increased geopolitical risks and challenges to Russian oil exports, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [10] Agriculture - Grains and oilseeds are expected to fluctuate. For example, soybean meal had a short - term rebound due to short - covering, with attention to weather, domestic demand, and trade frictions [10]

1. Report Summary - The report provides an overview of China's futures market on October 23, 2025, including price movements of equity indices, CGB futures, and commodities. It also offers comments on lithium carbonate, lead, and RBD palm olein, and covers recent China news [2][4]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Overall Market - On October 23, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell. Most commodities rose, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [2][4][11]. 2.2 Commodity Futures - Top three gainers: coking coal (up 5.1% with 14.4% MoM open interest increase), coke (up 4.2% with 3.3% MoM open interest increase), and lithium carbonate (up 4.2% with 18.7% MoM open interest increase) [12]. - Top three decliners: rapeseed (down 1.2% with 12.1% MoM open interest decrease), RBD palm olein (down 1.0% with 3.3% MoM open interest increase), and rapeseed oil (down 0.8% with 1.0% MoM open interest decrease) [13]. 2.3 Financial Futures - Equity indices rose, with IH increasing by 0.6%. CGB futures fell, with TL decreasing by 0.3% [14]. 3. Daily Raise and Drop Analysis 3.1 Lithium Carbonate - On October 23, it increased by 4.2% to 79940 yuan/ton. Short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, while long - term oversupply expectations suppress prices. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. Supply is increasing slightly, demand is strong, social inventories are being destocked, and warehouse receipts have decreased [19][20][22]. 3.2 Lead - On October 23, it increased by 2.7% to 17615 yuan/ton. Supply growth is slightly lower than expected due to factors like environmental controls and smelter maintenance. Demand still has resilience, but exports are under pressure. Social inventories are declining, and spot supply is tight. Prices are expected to be volatile with an upward trend in the short term [26][29][32]. 3.3 RBD Palm Olein - On October 23, it decreased by 1.0% to 9132 yuan/ton. Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory, and India's vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The macro - environment includes the US government shutdown, China - US trade negotiations, Fed rate - cut expectations, and potential loose fiscal policy in Japan [37][38][40]. 4. China News 4.1 Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee - Held from October 20 - 23, 2025, in Beijing. The session proposed main goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan, including promoting high - level self - reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and boosting consumption and investment [44][45][47]. 4.2 China - US Economic and Trade Consultations - From October 24 - 27, 2025, in Malaysia. Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to consult on important issues in China - US economic and trade relations [46][47]. 4.3 EU Sanctions on Chinese Companies - On October 23, the Foreign Ministry expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition to EU sanctions on 12 Chinese companies, emphasizing China's neutral stance on the Ukraine crisis and commitment to safeguarding its rights [46][47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The market shows signs of emotional repair. High - dividend sectors like coal, petrochemicals, and utilities lead the rise. The "technology + anti - involution" is expected to be the mid - term main line. In the short term, use a dumbbell structure for operation. For options, continue the covered call strategy, and for bonds, pay attention to policy signal releases [1][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday's market showed a V - shaped trend with a significant afternoon rebound. The Wind All - A Index rose slightly by 0.14%. High - dividend sectors led the gains. Although the style was value - oriented, there were signs of emotional repair. The futures positions increased significantly, and the decline of hot topics like semiconductors narrowed in the afternoon. After the Fourth Plenary Session, "technology + anti - involution" is the mid - term main line. Use a dumbbell structure for operation. Suggest holding Red Chip ETF + IM [1][7] Stock Index Options - On Thursday, the trading volume of each option variety recovered compared to Wednesday but remained below 10 billion. The low trading volume on Wednesday implied a recent market trading idea of being inclined to fluctuate. The increase in trading volume on Thursday was due to the morning market decline and the increased hedging demand. The implied volatility of options increased by 0.84%. Currently, continue the covered call strategy [2][7] Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The long - position holders may have strong motivation to leave the market, with the T main contract's position decreasing by 7491 lots. The central bank ended the continuous net injection and had a net withdrawal of 2.35 billion yuan, but the capital was still relatively loose. The bond market adjustment was affected by policies and the stock - bond seesaw. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the Fourth Plenary Session's communiqué was released. In the short term, be cautious and pay attention to policy signals. In the medium term, the expectation of loose money may support the bond market [2][7][9] Economic Calendar - It shows the economic data of China and the US from October 20th, 2025, including China's LPR, urban fixed - asset investment, industrial added - value, retail sales, GDP, and the US's non - farm employment population change [10] Important Information and News Tracking - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025, and relevant reports and suggestions were passed. A Chinese shipbuilding company won a large foreign order for anti - rolling fins. The National People's Congress will continue to review the draft amendment to the Cybersecurity Law. Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th [11][12] Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only lists the sub - items of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific data is provided [13][17][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for most energy and chemical products, the mid - term outlook is "oscillating", which implies a neutral investment stance for the industry in the short - to - medium term. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US sanctions on two major Russian oil producers have led to an increase in energy prices, which in turn boosts the chemical products. The potential reduction in Russian oil supply due to sanctions is difficult to quantify, but it may support oil prices in the short term. The chemical industry, although with high inventory levels, is expected to shift from a downward trend to an oscillating pattern due to autumn maintenance and reduced supply [2][3]. - The supply side of crude oil has entered a stage where the expected reduction in Russian oil is difficult to disprove, and short - term price support is relatively stable. Geopolitical factors are delaying the downward trend of oil prices, and the substitution effect of Middle Eastern crude oil may strengthen the SC - Brent spread [7]. - Most chemical products, including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, etc., are expected to oscillate in the short term, affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **原油** - **观点**：Geopolitical risks increase, and Russian oil exports face new challenges. The market is affected by news such as Trump's statement on Venezuela, Kuwait's oil minister's remarks, the US plan for offshore oil drilling, and the EU's new sanctions on Russia. The short - term price support is relatively stable, and the market is expected to oscillate [6][7]. - **Main Logic**：The supply side has entered a stage where the expected reduction in Russian oil is difficult to disprove. Although Russia's oil exports have been relatively stable under previous sanctions, the new sanctions may have a greater impact. The potential reduction in supply is difficult to quantify, and the impact on the global supply - demand balance is uncertain. Geopolitical factors are delaying the downward trend of oil prices [7]. - **沥青** - **观点**：Geopolitical premium resurfaces, and asphalt prices rise significantly. - **Main Logic**：The increase in oil prices driven by factors such as sanctions and the expectation of US oil reserve purchases has led to a resurgence of the expectation of asphalt raw material supply disruption. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the supply tension has been relieved. The high valuation of asphalt is starting to decline [8]. - **高硫燃油** - **观点**：Geopolitical premium resurfaces, and fuel oil futures prices rise. - **Main Logic**：The increase in oil prices has driven the rebound of high - sulfur fuel oil. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to drive up fuel oil prices. However, the demand for fuel oil is still weak [9]. - **低硫燃油** - **观点**：Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**：Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may decline, but the current valuation is low [10]. - **PX** - **观点**：Oil prices rebound from a low level, and the strengthening of downstream demand supports the expansion of processing fees. - **Main Logic**：The increase in international oil prices and the sanctions on Russian oil companies have affected the supply expectation of crude oil. Naphtha prices have followed the rise of oil prices, providing cost support for PX. The downstream demand for PX has strengthened, and the profit of PX has been significantly repaired. In the short term, PX prices are expected to rebound from an oversold level [11][12]. - **PTA** - **观点**：The increase is less than the cost, and the profit margin is compressed to the lowest level of the year. - **Main Logic**：The upstream cost has strengthened, supporting the upward movement of PTA prices. However, due to the pressure on PTA's supply - demand relationship, the increase is less than that of the upstream, and the processing fee has been compressed. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the price will continue to follow the upstream cost [12][13]. - **纯苯** - **观点**：Geopolitical factors stimulate the rebound of crude oil, and pure benzene oscillates. - **Main Logic**：The low cracking profit, the restart of the Dangote refinery, and the substitution of LPG for naphtha have led to a weak naphtha price. The market is pessimistic about the future of pure benzene, and the supply is still abundant, resulting in weak prices [14][15]. - **苯乙烯** - **观点**：Crude oil rebounds, and styrene oscillates upward during the day. - **Main Logic**：The market is still pessimistic about the future of pure benzene, the main raw material of styrene. Although the supply - demand relationship of styrene has slightly improved due to increased maintenance, the high port inventory is still a major pressure. The price has rebounded due to short - covering and contract - rolling, but the fundamental improvement is limited [15][17]. - **MEG** - **观点**：Cost support drives price rebound, and the moderate improvement in polyester downstream boosts sentiment. - **Main Logic**：The rebound of coal and oil prices provides cost support. The coal - based production load is high, while the integrated oil - based production load has decreased slightly. The downstream demand has some support, and the port inventory has not continued to accumulate. However, the long - term supply - demand relationship is still under pressure [18][19]. - **短纤** - **观点**：Factories focus on sales, and the discount is reduced as the cost strengthens. - **Main Logic**：The increase in upstream prices supports the rise of polyester staple fiber prices. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, and the reduction in discounts has led to a decline in sales. The price will follow the raw material price, and some trading strategies such as long PF short TA or PF12 - 01 positive spread can be considered [19][21]. - **瓶片** - **观点**：Follow the rise of polyester raw materials. - **Main Logic**：The rebound of upstream polyester raw material prices supports the price of polyester bottle chips. The fundamental situation is not significant, and the price will follow the cost. The processing fee has strong support at a low level, and attention can be paid to the PR12 - 01 positive spread [21][22]. - **甲醇** - **观点**：Olefins rebound, and methanol is expected to oscillate widely. - **Main Logic**：The methanol futures price rebounded slightly on October 23. The price in Inner Mongolia has increased slightly, and the upstream inventory is low. The port inventory is still at a high level, but considering the potential disturbance from Iran in winter, methanol still has long - position value. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [26]. - **尿素** - **观点**：Cost support and market sentiment lead to a short - term recovery, but the price is still under pressure. - **Main Logic**：On October 23, the supply - demand relationship of urea was still weak, but the increase in coal prices and positive market sentiment drove the futures price up. However, the supply - demand contradiction needs to be resolved for a real reversal, and the price is expected to oscillate narrowly [27]. - **LLDPE** - **观点**：Oil prices rebound, and the support from maintenance is limited. LLDPE is expected to trade within a range. - **Main Logic**：The LLDPE futures price rebounded slightly on October 23. The rebound of oil prices and the potential reduction in Russian oil supply due to sanctions may relieve the current oversupply situation. However, the fundamental support of LLDPE itself is limited, and the upper price space is restricted by the inventory reduction intention of the upstream and mid - stream [29]. - **PP** - **观点**：Oil prices rebound, and maintenance provides slight support. PP is expected to trade within a range. - **Main Logic**：The PP futures price rebounded slightly on October 23. The rebound of oil prices and the potential reduction in Russian oil supply are positive factors. However, the supply is still high, and the demand support is limited. The high inventory is suppressing the price. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [30][31]. - **PL** - **观点**：The price difference with PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**：On October 23, PL prices oscillated. Enterprises' price concessions were limited, and the market trading atmosphere improved due to increased downstream demand. The PP - PL price difference oscillated around 500, and the volatility of PL has increased [31]. - **PVC** - **观点**：Low valuation and weak expectation, PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**：Macroscopically, the Sino - US tariff issue is a concern. Microscopically, the PVC fundamental situation is under pressure, with stable cost. The production is expected to increase after the autumn maintenance, and the downstream demand is only strong at low prices. The export situation has improved. The price is expected to rebound and then be sold short [33]. - **烧碱** - **观点**：The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**：Macroscopically, the Sino - US tariff issue is a concern. Microscopically, the long - term demand and production of烧碱 may increase. The spot price may oscillate narrowly, affected by factors such as the alumina industry's situation, procurement from some enterprises, and future production changes. The futures price is expected to enter a wide - range oscillation, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [33]. 3.2品种数据监测 - **能化⽇度指标监测** - **跨期价差**：The report provides the latest values and changes of the inter - period spreads of various energy and chemical products, such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [36]. - **基差和仓单**：The report shows the basis and warehouse receipts of different products, including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [37]. - **跨品种价差**：The report presents the price differences between different products, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [39]. - **化⼯基差及价差监测**：The report mentions the basis and price differences of various chemical products, including methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data is not fully presented in the provided text. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**：The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of commodities are presented, including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index, and energy index. The energy index has a daily increase of 2.40% on October 23, 2025, a 5 - day increase of 4.93%, a 1 - month decrease of 6.23%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.84% [280][281][282].