Group 1: Core View - The weekly EIA data shows that refinery operations declined, and the total inventory pressure remains high. The increase in commercial crude oil inventory, net crude oil exports, and the decrease in crude oil processing volume all had a significant impact on inventory. The domestic focus is on production resilience and the decline in refinery operating rates. The single - week crude oil production estimate increased by 0.7 million barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day, and the refinery operating rate dropped from 92.4% to 85.7%, likely due to seasonal maintenance and a refinery accident in California. Gasoline and diesel showed seasonal inventory declines, while the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products continued to rise, with the single - week data being bearish [2][4]. Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 3.715 million barrels [4][5]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 0.703 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 0.763 million barrels [5]. - US strategic petroleum inventory increased by 0.76 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 0.285 million barrels [5]. - US gasoline inventory decreased by 0.267 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 1.601 million barrels [5]. - US diesel inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 2.018 million barrels [5]. - US jet fuel inventory increased by 0.146 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 0.071 million barrels [5]. - US fuel oil inventory increased by 0.255 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 0.541 million barrels [5]. - The inventory change of US crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) increased by 1.663 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 1.23 million barrels [5]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 13.629 million barrels per day [5]. - US refined oil apparent demand was 19.726 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 21.99 million barrels per day [5]. - US gasoline apparent demand was 8.455 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 8.919 million barrels per day [5]. - US diesel apparent demand was 4.233 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 4.346 million barrels per day [5]. Trade and Processing Data - US crude oil imports were 5.525 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 6.403 million barrels per day [5]. - US crude oil exports were 4.466 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 3.59 million barrels per day [5]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.13 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 16.297 million barrels per day [5]. - US refinery operating rate was 85.7%, and the previous value was 92.4% [5].

Sector Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook of "oscillation" for various products in the black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [8][9][10]. Core Views - The current fundamentals reflected by yesterday's steel inventory data are better than before, and the prices of sector products showed a trend of first falling and then rising during the day. At night, high hot metal production still supports the demand for furnace materials, but the increasing inventory pressure of iron ore makes its price under pressure, while coke and coking coal prices are relatively strong due to further inventory reduction [2][3]. - Recently, the de - stocking of steel and the high level of hot metal production have temporarily alleviated the market's concerns about the negative feedback of the industrial chain, but further price increases depend on the continuous improvement of fundamentals. There are still optimistic expectations for the upcoming domestic major conference [4]. Summary by Product Steel - Core Logic: Spot market transactions are generally weak, but improved compared to yesterday. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, and iron - water production has slightly decreased at a high level. After the National Day, the demand for five major steel products has recovered to some extent, but the recovery height is limited. The inventory of five major steel products has decreased after the festival, but the de - stocking speed is slower than the same period last year, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is still accumulating [8]. - Outlook: The recovery of post - festival demand is limited, and the steel inventory is at a moderately high level, with fundamental pressure still existing. However, there may be positive signals from the major conference at the end of October, and the cost side still has some support under the high hot - metal background. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate at a low level [8]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port transactions decreased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The demand for iron ore still has support under high hot - metal production, but the market's expectation of weakening hot - metal production has increased. The port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore still has support, but the overall pressure is not prominent. There are still macro - expectation disturbances before the important conference, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations restricts the upside space. It is expected that the iron - ore price will oscillate in the short term [9]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has recovered to the pre - festival level, and the demand has increased slightly due to the resumption of some electric furnaces after the festival. Steel enterprises have slightly increased their inventory, and the available days of inventory have increased significantly [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the current pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the scrap - steel price will follow the finished - product price in the short term [10]. Coke - Core Logic: The futures price of coke oscillated strongly. The supply has tightened due to factors such as weak coking profits and enterprise maintenance. The demand has weakened slightly with the decline of hot - metal production, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month [12]. - Outlook: Although there is an expectation of weakening hot - metal production, it is still strong in the short term. The coke supply is difficult to increase, and the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. However, due to the weak steel price, the price increase is difficult to implement. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [12]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The coking - coal futures price oscillated strongly. The overall supply is stable, and the import volume from Mongolia has returned to normal. The demand for coking coal still has short - term rigid support, and the overall inventory is at a low level [13]. - Outlook: The incremental space for coal mine production is limited, and the sustainability of Mongolian coal imports remains to be observed. The coking - coal price is expected to be supported in the short term due to strong policy expectations [13]. Glass - Core Logic: The market is worried about the supply disruption in Shahe, and the cost may increase after the gas conversion. The demand has weakened, and the inventory has accumulated. The upstream manufacturers are under pressure to reduce prices [14]. - Outlook: The spot sales are weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply is at a moderately high level, and the demand for heavy soda ash is stable and improving, while the demand for light soda ash has weakened significantly. The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the cost support has been strengthened [16]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the soda - ash price will oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and some manufacturers' inventories are accumulating, suppressing the price. The cost of port ores is weak, and the demand has some resilience. The production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the price center may decline after the peak season due to pessimistic supply - demand expectations [17]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost - support expectation has been strengthened, and the supply pressure has accumulated. The demand from steel mills and the metal - magnesium industry has different trends [18]. - Outlook: In the short term, peak demand season, policy expectations, and strong costs support the price, but there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season due to the loosening supply - demand relationship [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for different energy and chemical products, the mid - term outlooks are provided, including "weak and volatile", "volatile", and "weak - trending with volatility". 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal price increases support the coal - chemical industry, while China's port fees on US - related vessels negatively impact US crude oil physicals. The contrast between strong coal and weak oil prices makes the hedging between coal - chemical and oil - chemical industries potentially valuable again [2][3]. - For coal - chemical products, PVC, methanol, and urea are considered for long - positions, with PVC potentially being more stable in terms of cost. For oil - chemical products, olefins are short - positions, and the new styrene production device may face challenges due to high inventory [3]. - Overall, the energy and chemical market still takes crude oil as a reference and is expected to continue its weak - trending with volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Macro - factors affect the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. The EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have accumulated, and refinery operating rates have declined. The global supply is in an increasing period, and there is pressure for accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. - **Asphalt**: The decline has slowed, and the asphalt futures price is expected to be volatile. The geopolitical premium of crude oil has declined, and the supply of asphalt has increased, with high inventory pressure. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued [12]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price has entered a volatile mode. The reduction of geopolitical factors and the increase in supply have affected the price, and it is expected to be volatile [12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil price and is volatile. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [14]. - **Methanol**: Slightly boosted by coal, it is in a wide - range volatile state. There is still value in going long at a low level, but the upside space is limited [25][26]. - **Urea**: The spot price is firm, but the futures price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern is still supply - strong and demand - weak, and it is expected to be volatile [26][27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Supported by coal prices, it rebounds at a low level, but the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure. The inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [20][22]. - **PX**: The futures price stops falling and rebounds, but the increase is limited, and the profit is repaired month - on - month. It is expected to fluctuate with costs and macro - sentiment [15]. - **PTA**: New devices are about to be put into production, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is expected to follow the cost and be weak and volatile [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream speculative stocking promotes inventory reduction. The supply - demand is relatively healthy in the short term, and the processing fee is stable. It can consider long - short hedging operations [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: The improvement of the processing fee stimulates the moderate increase of production. The absolute price follows the upstream cost, and the profit has support at the bottom [23][24]. - **Propylene (PL)**: Affected by weak oil prices and macro - factors, it is weak and volatile [31]. - **PP**: Affected by weak oil prices, it continues to decline. The high inventory suppresses the price, and it is expected to be weak and volatile [30]. - **Plastic**: There is slight support near the previous low, and it is weak and volatile. The fundamental support is limited, and the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory [29]. - **Styrene**: Affected by commodity sentiment and device news, it shows a "V" - shaped trend. The high inventory is the main pressure, and it is expected to try to widen the profit [19][20]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is volatile. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost is moving down, and it is expected to be weak [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the upward driving force is insufficient [32][33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., and their changes [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different products such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., and their changes are presented [37].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Gold prices are in a technical consolidation phase after hitting new all - time highs but remain in a strong range. Multiple factors, including the escalation of Sino - US trade friction, the continuation of the US government shutdown, and the strengthening of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, together provide macro support for the rise of precious metals. With Powell's statement of "not over - cutting interest rates but stopping balance - sheet reduction" and the influence of geopolitical risks and global capital re - allocation, precious metal prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Key Information - Sino - US trade friction has reignited. The market is worried that the negotiations before the November APEC meeting will reach a deadlock, leading to an increase in safe - haven buying. The US government shutdown continues, causing an estimated economic loss of about $15 billion per week, and the BLS has postponed the release of September CPI data. The probability of a 25 - bp interest rate cut in October and December is 95% and 87% respectively according to CME FedWatch. Geopolitical risks are rising, with the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions driving global funds to allocate to gold, silver, and long - term bonds [4]. 2. Price Logic - Gold price increases are driven by three mechanisms: policy, risk - hedging, and capital structure. Policy - wise, Fed's interest rate cut expectations and slower balance - sheet reduction release liquidity repair signals, and the government shutdown makes "no data is bullish" a short - term trading logic. Risk - hedging involves the inflow of safe - haven and allocation funds due to trade and geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases and ETF position increases. In terms of capital structure, speculative long positions are concentrated in London and COMEX contracts, and if the US dollar index remains weak, gold prices may break through. Technically, gold has an over - bought correction risk, with support at $4000 - $4050 and resistance at $4250 - $4300. Silver shows stronger performance due to structural tightness in the London spot market, and its long - term logic remains bullish [5]. 3. Outlook - Against the backdrop of multiple factors, precious metals will maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation. In the short term, interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks provide support, but rapid volatility increase requires caution for short - term adjustments. The focus range for London gold is $4020 - $4500 per ounce, and for London silver is $50 - $55 per ounce [7]. 4. Index Information - On October 15, 2025, the precious metals index rose 2.72% on the day, 5.67% in the past 5 days, 16.59% in the past month, and 53.21% since the beginning of the year. The commodity index was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09% [44][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market is experiencing a period of low - volume consolidation, waiting for policy - related catalysts. The strategy is to hold long positions in IM and wait for policy - driven market movements [1][6]. - The stock index options market maintains a medium - term optimistic sentiment. The operation strategy is to continue with covered calls or intraday double - selling [2][7]. - In the treasury bond futures market, there is an expectation of an active bond switch for 25 Special Bond 6. The short - term trend of the long - end of the bond market is likely to be volatile [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The market is in a low - volume consolidation state. The base spreads and inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed compared to the previous trading day, and their positions have also changed. The market shows a dumbbell - shaped structure, with the dividend index rising for six consecutive days. The impact of tariff increases on the stock market has weakened. As an important meeting approaches next week, there is an expectation of policy intensification. The recommended operation is to hold long positions in IM [1][6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market's optimistic sentiment continues but is somewhat differentiated, with small and medium - cap stocks underperforming large - cap stocks. The trading volume of the options market decreased by 14.01% compared to the previous day, while the liquidity of 50 and 300 - related varieties increased. The call trading on 50ETF and 300ETF was relatively active, but the out - of - the - money degree of call trading decreased. The seller's sentiment in large - cap varieties continued to recover. The recommended operations are covered calls or intraday double - selling [2][7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The closing performance of treasury bond futures was differentiated. The 30 - year main contract rose by 0.42%, the 10 - year main contract rose by 0.06%, and the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.01%. The central bank's open - market operation led to a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan, but the capital market remained relatively loose. The low - volume consolidation of the equity market and the decrease in risk appetite supported the long - end of the bond market. There was an expectation of an active bond switch for 25 Special Bond 6, but it remains to be seen. The short - term trend of the long - end of the bond market is likely to be volatile. Recommended strategies include trend trading with a volatile outlook, short - hedging when the basis is low, long - end arbitrage, and paying attention to the steepening of the yield curve [3][7][8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's export annual rate in September was 8.3% (expected 7.1%, previous 4%); PPI annual rate was - 2.3% (expected - 2.3%, previous - 2.9%); and the social financing scale from the beginning of the year to September was 30.09 trillion yuan (expected 29.91 trillion yuan, previous 26.56 trillion yuan). The data for the US non - farm payrolls in September is yet to be released [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Two new policies: With the implementation of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies, the equipment renewal of industrial enterprises in China has accelerated in the first three quarters of this year. The procurement of mechanical equipment by industrial enterprises increased by 9.4% year - on - year, with high - tech manufacturing and the power, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries showing growth rates of 14% and 10.5% respectively [10]. - US employment: The US job market has shown a significant change. Enterprises are neither hiring nor firing, and there are many applicants for each position. Labor demand and supply are shrinking at the same rate, and productivity seems to be increasing, which may offset some cost pressures. Consumers are still spending but are making choices due to less abundant funds [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different agricultural products: - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating [5] - **Protein Meals**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating [9] - **Hogs**: Oscillating Weakly [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating Weakly [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating Weakly [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating Weakly [17] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating Strongly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex situation with different products having their own supply - demand dynamics, influenced by factors such as macro - environment, trade relations, production, and consumption patterns. Overall, most products are expected to be in an oscillating state, with some showing a weakening or strengthening trend [5][9][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Due to factors like the US government "shutdown", trade tensions, and mixed supply - demand expectations, oils and fats are expected to continue oscillating. Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the inventory situation varies among different types of oils [5]. - **Protein Meals**: US soybean exports face challenges, while Brazilian soybean planting progresses smoothly. In China, short - term supply pressure is high, and long - term supply is expected to increase. Demand for protein meals may be stable or slightly increase [6]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment has improved, with spot prices stabilizing and futures rebounding. However, new - grain supply pressure exists in the short term, and the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [9]. - **Hogs**: Monthly supply - demand is loose, and hog prices are under pressure. In the short and medium term, supply is abundant, while in the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy leads to capacity reduction, supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: NR shows a relatively strong performance, while RU is affected by over - expected state reserve sales. The market is influenced by factors such as raw material prices, import volume, and demand [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is at a low level and has rebounded from the bottom, but the fundamental pressure is large, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [13]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices have stabilized and oscillated. The expected reduction in Xinjiang cotton production and the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations are the main influencing factors [14]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar markets are in a relatively loose supply situation. In the short term, there is some support, but in the medium - long term, prices are expected to decline [15]. - **Pulp**: The market remains weak, and pulp prices are at a low level. Although there are some short - term factors driving up futures prices, the overall fundamental situation is bearish [17]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market maintains a narrow - range oscillation, with supply increasing and demand remaining weak [18]. - **Logs**: The market is affected by the special port fee and weak fundamentals. Although there is a potential for short - term upward movement, the long - term outlook is still under pressure due to weak demand [20]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring section for different varieties, but no specific data details are provided in the content for further summary. 3.3 Commodity Index - On October 16, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of the commodity are presented. The special index shows an increase, while the agricultural product index has a decline in different time - periods [179][181].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-10-16 流动性与避险⽀撑延续，⾦银⾼位震荡 伦敦⾦在欧洲时段⼀度刷新纪录⾼位⾄4220美元/盎司后回落⾄4200美元 附近震荡；伦敦银站稳52美元上⽅。美联储降息预期、贸易摩擦升级与地 缘⻛险交织，共同推升避险与配置需求。短线虽处超买区间，但波动率提 升更多体现情绪扩张⽽⾮趋势反转，中期多头逻辑仍稳固。 重点资讯： 1）鲍威尔在费城发表讲话，强调"不过度降息但或将停止缩表"， 平衡就业与通胀目标。市场解读为美联储将以"小步降息+暂停缩 表"的双轨方式应对流动性紧张。 2）中东局势再度升温。以色列对黎巴嫩南部实施空袭，真主党武装 回击导弹袭击北以色列，联合国呼吁各方克制；市场避险情绪显著升 温，推动金价延续高位运行。 4）特朗普威胁中止对中国部分农产品贸易并强化稀土出口限制，IMF 上调全球增速至3.2%但警示贸易战重燃风险。 价格逻辑： 黄金： 鲍威尔讲话被视为"有限降息+流动性维护"的政策信号，美 联储在降息与缩表之间寻求平衡，短期利率下行、美元维持弱势共同 强化黄金支撑。地缘冲突扩散加速避险资金流入，黄金短线超买但 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the energy and chemical products are rated as "oscillating weakly", including crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, etc. Some are rated as "oscillating", such as urea, PVC, and caustic soda [4][7][9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy and chemical sector continues to be in a weak pattern. The crude oil market is under pressure from fundamentals and macro - disturbances, and its price direction is downward, although the rhythm is affected by various factors. The bottom of the petrochemical industry is determined by crude oil, and due to factors such as over - supply and some varieties' capacity expansion, the chemical industry will maintain a weak trend [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Fed's hint of a possible October rate cut and the market's expectation of improved Sino - US relations led to a rebound in the US stock market and a significant rise in the Chinese A - share market on Wednesday. This slightly boosted the crude oil price, which had fallen to a five - month low. The reports from three major energy agencies show that the expected growth in global crude oil demand in 2025 is 700,000 barrels per day, which contradicts the large - scale production increases of OPEC + and some countries [2] 3.2 Sector Logic - Chemical products continue to be in a weak pattern. The measure of imposing port fees on each other's ships by China and the US has little impact on the supply - demand of varieties, only causing some disturbances in the trading process. The bottom of the petrochemical industry is determined by crude oil, and due to factors such as some varieties' good benefits and capacity expansion, the chemical industry will maintain a weak trend [3] 3.3 Variety Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Macro factors affect the rhythm, and the fundamentals are under continuous pressure. The API data shows a significant accumulation of US crude oil inventories last week, and the global supply is in a production - increasing period dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC + production. The oil price is expected to continue to be weakly oscillating [7] - **Asphalt**: The decline has slowed down, and the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate. The geopolitical premium has declined, the supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the over - valuation premium is starting to fall [9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price has entered an oscillating mode. The end of the Palestine - Israel conflict is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, and the demand is still weak [9] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [10] - **PX**: The international oil price is in a stalemate, and PX has limited variables and follows the market to consolidate. The supply and demand are both strong, and the processing fee support is enhanced [12] - **PTA**: The polyester profit has expanded passively, and the sales volume has increased. However, the PTA processing fee is still under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable, and the spot benefit is still under pressure [12] - **Short - Fiber**: The processing fee support is good, and the factory's willingness to sell goods has increased. The overall supply - demand pattern has certain support in the short term [18] - **Bottle Chip**: The short - term processing fee of bottle chips has improved. The upstream polyester raw materials are weakly sorted, and attention should be paid to whether polyester factories increase production due to profit repair [19] - **Methanol**: The port inventory has slightly decreased, and methanol is expected to oscillate widely. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, but considering the possible disturbances in Iran in winter, methanol still has low - buying value [23] - **Urea**: The spot price is firm, but the futures price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" remains unchanged, and the enterprise inventory continues to accumulate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: There are no obvious positive factors, and the supply - demand is relatively under pressure. The futures price is seeking support. There is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in the far - month, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted [16] - **PP**: The oil price is weakly operating, and PP continues to decline. The supply - demand fundamentals support is limited, and the high inventory will suppress the price [29] - **Plastic**: The oil price has fallen, and combined with macro - disturbances, plastic oscillates weakly. The self - fundamental support is limited, and the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory [28] - **Styrene**: The price has broken through the previous low and rebounded slightly after the decline. The high port inventory is the main pressure, and the price is expected to have limited rebound [15] - **PVC**: It has low valuation and weak expectations and oscillates. The macro - level Sino - US tariff disturbance has reappeared, and the micro - level fundamentals are under pressure, with the cost moving down [33] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and the short - position on the futures market should stop profit when the price is low. The short - term spot supply - demand has improved, and future inventory replenishment needs to be concerned [34] 3.4 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, which can reflect the market's expectations for the future price trends of various varieties [35] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety are provided, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the market's delivery situation [36] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data shows the price differences between different varieties, which is helpful for cross - variety arbitrage analysis [38] 3.5 Commodity Index - On October 15, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09%; the PPI commodity index was 1321.22, up 0.27%. The energy index was 1122.04, with a daily decline of 0.82%, a 5 - day decline of 4.56%, a 1 - month decline of 6.33%, and a year - to - date decline of 8.62% [280][281]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market rebounded with shrinking volume, and the bond market declined due to disturbances. The short - term trend of the bond market is expected to be volatile, while the stock market shows signs of improvement with the potential for policy - driven rallies [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The market showed a shrinking - volume rebound, and hedging sentiment eased. The growth preference resurfaced, with power equipment, automobiles, and electronics leading the gains among primary industries. The reduction in IC positions on Wednesday exceeded the increase on Tuesday, and the discount narrowed significantly, possibly indicating concentrated short - covering of IC. The U.S. stocks stopped falling, and the domestic technology - related industries rebounded. The September social financing data showed an increase in corporate medium - and long - term loans, indicating a recovery in corporate demand. With an important meeting approaching at the end of the month, policy - boosting expectations are rising. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [1][7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The implied volatility dropped significantly. The underlying market rose across the board in the afternoon. The trading volume of the options market decreased by 24.91% compared to the previous day. The proportion of bullish trading increased slightly, and the short - term trading scale of buyers did not rise. The PCR of open interest rebounded significantly, and the average absolute value of the volatility index of each variety decreased by 1.72%. Sellers were more willing to add positive - delta positions, and the put - buying options from the previous day were mainly for profit - taking or stop - loss. It is recommended to continue with the monthly covered - call strategy and limit the double - selling strategy to intraday trading [2][7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Risk preference disturbances still exist. Most treasury bond futures closed lower on Wednesday, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts falling by 0.14%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively, and the 2 - year main contract remaining flat. The central bank maintained a loose liquidity environment through open - market operations, which supported the bond market. The September inflation and social financing data were in line with market expectations, and the bond market had already priced them in. The improvement in the equity market's risk preference was negative for the bond market. In the short term, the long - end of the bond market is still greatly affected by risk preference, but the impact of tariffs may be lower than that in early April. The short - term bond market trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to adopt a volatile trend strategy, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, look for long - end arbitrage opportunities, and appropriately focus on the steepening of the yield curve [3][8][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The actual values of China's September export annual rate, PPI annual rate, and social financing scale from the beginning of the year to date were 8.3%, - 2.3%, and 30.09 trillion yuan respectively, with the export annual rate and social financing scale exceeding expectations, and the PPI annual rate in line with expectations. The data for the U.S. September non - farm payrolls change is yet to be released [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Social Financing**: As of the end of September, M2 and M1 balances increased by 8.4% and 7.2% year - on - year respectively. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing scale increment was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [13]. - **New Energy**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities in three years. By the end of 2027, 28 million charging facilities will be built nationwide, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity [13]. - **U.S. Finance**: The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the budget deficit is smaller than last year, and the deficit - to - GDP ratio may reach 3%. A trade agreement with South Korea is imminent, and the relationship between the U.S. and Canada has normalized. The U.S. investment boom is sustainable, and the AI boom is in its early stages [14]. - **Consumption Tax Refund**: Starting from November 1, 2025, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will implement the tax - refund policy for overseas tourists' shopping [15].