1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical industry is in an overall oscillatory pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela continue to disturb the crude oil market. Although China's crude oil imports are at a record high and there are expectations of improved demand, the supply - surplus pattern in the crude oil market still exerts downward pressure. Most chemical products are in a state of oscillation due to factors like high inventory of liquid chemicals and the weak - reality and strong - expectation situation in some regions [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - The chemical industry as a whole is oscillating. The inventory of most liquid chemicals increased on Monday, especially pure benzene. The 05 main contract is far from the delivery time, and the weak spot supply - demand situation has limited immediate negative impact on the futures price. High crude oil imports in China and good refined oil profits may lead to high refinery operation before and after the Spring Festival, which is a concern for the chemical industry [2]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela continue to disturb, and oil prices continue to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The postponed EIA data shows inventory accumulation in US crude oil and refined products. Although the global crude oil inventory pressure has weakened in the past two weeks, the subsequent inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Geopolitical factors are the core of supply expectations, but there is a lack of marginal drivers for both long and short positions. - **Outlook**: There is still significant downward pressure in the next quarter under the supply - surplus situation, but short - term geopolitical disturbances make the decline unsmooth, so it is regarded as oscillatory [6]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices rise following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + increased production in December, and the expectation of raw material supply interruption drives the rise. However, the supply - demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and the high - valuation is being adjusted. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated [8]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices decline following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Although there are expectations of heavy - oil shortage, the demand outlook is suppressed by high - floating storage in the Asia - Pacific and the substitution of fuel - oil power generation by other energy sources. In addition, the refinery processing demand is weak in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Supply - demand is weak [8]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It has a supply - increase and demand - decline trend, but the current valuation is low and it follows the movement of crude oil. - **Outlook**: It follows the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.2.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: The monthly spread weakens ahead of the price, and the short - term price adjusts downward. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are consolidating, and some long - position funds take profits before the holiday. There are also expectations of increased supply due to the expansion of PX production benefits. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to adjust downward. Pay attention to the support around 7000 - 7100 [11]. 3.2.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: It follows the cost to adjust downward in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX adjusts downward, and although the supply - demand pattern changes little, the supply pressure will gradually return with the restart of some devices. - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to adjust and oscillate, and the processing fee runs within a range [11]. 3.2.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The weak reality still suppresses, and the market oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The spot price is slightly supported by downstream export orders and high overseas prices, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the price increase. The far - month contract has the expectation of supply - demand improvement. - **Outlook**: The inventory - accumulation pressure is being realized, and the trading is mainly based on reality [14]. 3.2.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Short - term sentiment dominates the market, and attention is paid to the sustainability of export transactions. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is weak, but there are positive factors such as export expectations and the impact of device maintenance. However, there is a possibility of negative feedback from downstream devices. - **Outlook**: It is about to turn to inventory accumulation, and the export transactions stimulate the rebound periodically [16]. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually realized, and the driving force is general. - **Main Logic**: The price is in a narrow - range consolidation, with continuous inventory accumulation and slow reduction in domestic supply. Overseas imports are expected to decrease in February, and domestic supply will be alleviated in March. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is in a range, and the long - term inventory - accumulation pressure limits the rebound height [18]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The adjustment range is limited, and the processing fee stops falling in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost adjusts downward, but the adjustment range of short - fiber is limited. Due to the off - season, the sales are average. - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to adjust, and the processing fee stops falling in the short term [20]. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: It follows the upstream cost to adjust downward. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures decline, and the price of bottle chips follows. The trading atmosphere is weak, and the fundamentals are slightly weak. - **Outlook**: The absolute value follows the raw material, and the processing fee is under some pressure [21]. 3.2.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The weak reality in coastal areas contrasts with the strong expectation, and inland areas offer discounts before the festival. Methanol is generally regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: There is a significant difference between coastal and inland areas. Inland prices decline due to pre - holiday sales pressure, while coastal areas have the expectation of reduced imports. - **Outlook**: The trading logic in coastal areas dominates in the short term, and it is regarded as oscillatory [23]. 3.2.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: There is no new positive news, and urea is weakly consolidating. - **Main Logic**: The daily production is high, and there is no new positive news in demand, especially in exports. The market is in a stalemate. - **Outlook**: There is supply pressure in the long term and no new positive news in demand. It may decline slightly [24]. 3.2.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the festival, and LLDPE is regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and LLDPE's own fundamentals have some support, but the demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [25]. 3.2.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: The basis support is limited, and PP is regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: PDH profits are under pressure, the oil price oscillates, and the demand is in the off - season with high inventory pressure. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [26]. 3.2.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: Supported by the expectation of PDH maintenance, PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance has a boosting effect, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [27]. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment weakens, and PVC declines. - **Main Logic**: Macro - level factors have a certain impact, and although the supply - demand expectation improves, the high - inventory pressure still exists. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment fades, and PVC may oscillate [28]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda is in an oscillatory state. - **Main Logic**: Macro - level factors affect the market, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment affects the market, and it may oscillate due to low valuation [30]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.42 with a change of 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being - 66 with a change of - 24 [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Different varieties have different basis and warehouse - receipt data, such as asphalt's basis being - 88 with a change of - 13 and a warehouse receipt of 20840 [33]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 233 with a change of - 21 [35]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report only mentions the names of various varieties for basis and spread monitoring but does not provide specific data and analysis. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities is 2339.89, down 0.59%; the 20 - commodity index is 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial - product index is 2258.87, down 0.70% [279]. - **Energy Index**: The energy index on December 29, 2025, is 1088.67, with a daily decline of 1.40%, a 5 - day decline of 0.99%, a 1 - month decline of 4.21%, and a year - to - date decline of 11.34% [281].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - In the stock index futures market, the Shanghai Composite Index narrowly achieved a nine - day consecutive gain, with sentiment returning to rationality. There are four signs of cooling sentiment, and it's expected that there will be no systematic opportunities at the end of the year. Hold long positions and wait for opportunities to increase positions after New Year's Day, with high - dividend and price - increase chains as the main allocation lines, and large - cap stocks preferred over small - cap stocks [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, it is mainly recommended to use covered strategies for defense. The trading volume of each option variety has declined, and the implied volatility has fluctuated strongly. It is speculated that the proportion of investors in directional trend trading has decreased, and the demand for option hedging and risk management is more stable [2][6]. - In the treasury bond futures market, there are disturbances from supply expectations. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the bond market sentiment was under pressure. The central bank's net injection of funds and supply expectations have affected the market. The central bank is friendly to the short - end, while the long - end needs to be more cautious [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Outlook Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell on Monday, with trading volume slightly shrinking. There are four signs of cooling sentiment: the ETF impulse has temporarily ended, market hotspots have shrunk rapidly, the positions of IF, IC, and IM have decreased, and the continuous bullish trend of precious metal commodities has ended. It is expected that there will be no systematic opportunities at the end of the year, and it is recommended to hold long positions and wait for post - holiday opportunities, with high - dividend and price - increase chains as the main allocation lines, and large - cap stocks preferred over small - cap stocks. The operation suggestion is to hold dividend ETFs and IC long positions [1][6]. Stock Index Options - The equity market was volatile and differentiated yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.04%. The trading volume of each option variety declined, and the implied volatility fluctuated strongly but showed an overall upward trend. It is speculated that the proportion of directional trend traders has decreased, and the demand for option hedging and risk management is more stable. It is recommended to continue to hold short - option strategies for defense and enhancement. The operation suggestion is a covered strategy [2][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board yesterday, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.91%, the 10 - year main contract down 0.28%, the 5 - year main contract down 0.18%, and the 2 - year main contract down 0.07%. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose, and the bond market sentiment was under pressure. The central bank's net injection of 415 billion yuan was offset by tightened year - end liquidity. The market is worried about the supply of ultra - long bonds. The central bank is friendly to the short - end, while the long - end needs to be more cautious. Operation suggestions include a trend strategy of range - bound trading, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, paying attention to basis widening, and expecting the yield curve to remain steep [3][7][9]. Economic Calendar - There are economic data release schedules for the US, China, and Europe from December 30, 2025, to January 1, 2026, including indicators such as the Chicago PMI, official manufacturing PMI, initial jobless claims, and M3 money supply growth rate [11]. Important Information and News Tracking - **China Macro**: From January to November, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 75,625.76 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; the total profit was 3,719.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%; and the taxes payable were 5,280.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2% [11]. - **Regulatory Policy**: The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan", which will be implemented on January 1, 2026. It reduces import tariffs on some key components, advanced materials, resource - based commodities, and medical products, and cancels the import provisional tax rates on some commodities [12]. - **Media Services**: Sixteen departments in Shanghai issued measures to further expand service consumption, including promoting the "IP +" model and supporting the use of IP resources to drive consumption [12]. - **Insurance**: The China Banking and Insurance Asset Management Association issued a data classification and grading guide for the insurance asset management industry, which will be implemented on January 1, 2026 [13]. - **Automobile**: In November, the price change index of the sedan market was - 8.16, and the market transaction price was 122,600 yuan. The overall transaction price increased by 5,266 yuan compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.49%. The transaction prices of all sub - markets increased, with the B - level market having a relatively large increase [13]. Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not provided in the given content - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not provided in the given content - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not provided in the given content

需期货有限公司 C Futures Comnany Limited 2025年12月30日 铝产业链日度数据跟踪 一、氧化铝 （1）12月29日国产矿价格为509元/吨，环比0元/吨；29日几内亚进口矿 （1）12月28日SM A00均价22490元/吨，环比+40元/吨，升旧水为于200 （1）12月29日保太地03:价格为21900元/吨，环比"200元/吨; 价格66美元/干吨,环比0美元/干吨; (2) 12月29日现货价格指数为2703元/吨,环比-5元/吨; (3) 12月29日期货库存158419吨,环比-2410吨; (4) 12月29日进口盈亏为-26元/吨,环比-5元/吨; 二、电解铝 元/吨,环比-10元/吨; 三、铝合金 (2) 12月29日生铝精废价差为2039元/吨,环比+255元/吨;29日型材铝 精废价差3006元/吨,环比+362元/吨; (3) 12月29日期货库存为71002吨,环比+571吨; (4) 12月29日进口盈亏为323元/吨,环比+16元/吨; 图表 1: 国产铝土矿价格 - 2024 120 110 100 01/02 01/30 02/28 03/27 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious metals remain strong overall, but there is a clear internal structural differentiation. Gold is in a stable high - level operation, mainly oscillating to digest previous gains, while silver has medium - term support but experiences high volatility and periodic corrections [1]. - The core drivers of gold are global monetary easing expectations, a downward shift in the real interest rate center, and a marginal contraction of the US dollar credit. Gold is more likely to operate in a high - level range, waiting for the next clear macro - variable guidance [3]. - The significant correction of silver is due to its rapid rise outpacing the market's liquidity expansion. High volatility also increases holding costs, leading to continuous selling pressure at high levels [3]. - The previous rise of silver was mainly driven by short - term and momentum funds. When the market shifts from an accelerating uptrend to a high - level oscillation, the trading logic switches from "chasing the rise" to "taking profits", amplifying the correction [6]. - In the short term, silver's pricing power is transferred to liquidity and position structure. It is more likely to release risks through retracement or wide - range oscillation and then find a new balance range [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - China will pay interest on digital RMB starting from January 1, 2026, to promote its popularization [2]. - China's mediation has led to a stage - by - stage consensus on the cease - fire between Cambodia and Thailand, and regional geopolitical risks have marginally eased [2]. - The meeting between Trump and Zelensky did not achieve a substantial breakthrough, and the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation remains in the short term [2] 3.2 Price Logic - Gold: After a significant rise in 2025, it is in the stage of expectation digestion and structure confirmation. The market has priced in the probability of the Fed's continued easing in 2026, and new macro - level positives have a weaker marginal impact on prices. Central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties provide a solid bottom for gold prices [3]. - Silver: After a rapid rise to a high level, the price has corrected significantly. The core reason is that the rise is faster than the market's liquidity expansion. High volatility also increases holding costs, resulting in continuous selling pressure [3]. 3.3 Outlook - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4300, 4600], and the weekly price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [65, 100] [6]. 3.4 Commodity Index - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2258.87, down 0.70% [47]. - The precious metals index on December 29, 2025, was 3978.81, with a daily decline of 0.81%, a 5 - day increase of 2.72%, a 1 - month increase of 13.71%, and a year - to - date increase of 79.84% [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - On December 29, platinum and palladium prices hit the daily limit down at the end of the session. The closing price of the GFEX platinum主力 contract was 634.35 yuan/gram, a 10% decline, and that of the palladium主力 contract was 494.1 yuan/gram, also a 10% decline [2]. - Due to pre - holiday sentiment weakening and capital profit - taking, platinum and palladium prices have significantly corrected, and continued vigilance against large - scale price fluctuations is required [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Platinum - **Main Logic**: After the correction, the domestic - foreign price difference of platinum has narrowed. As of the close on December 29, the GFEX platinum主力 contract had a premium of 39.13 yuan/gram over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included) at the domestic closing time, still higher than the import cost, indicating an arbitrage opportunity and a tendency for the price difference to converge in the future. However, due to issues such as hedging quota limitations, the short - term price difference may remain high. South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather in the future. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with relatively stable demand in the automotive catalyst sector, the hydrogen energy industry as an important future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will further amplify the long - term price elasticity [3]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. In the short term, price fluctuations have intensified. It is advisable to trade cautiously during the holiday period, or take a wait - and - see approach for short - term trading. It is recommended to hold or temporarily take profits on long - platinum short - palladium and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage positions [3]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation in Russia is a key factor affecting the supply of palladium. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. On the demand side, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is expected to ease, the short - term shortage of spot goods keeps the price firm, and with the Fed re - entering the interest rate - cut cycle, the palladium price has some support at the bottom [4]. - **Outlook**: With the short - term shortage of spot and a favorable macro environment, the palladium price is expected to fluctuate upward. However, in the short term, palladium may have entered an adjustment phase. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for short - term trading and wait for the price to correct to an appropriate level. It is recommended to hold or temporarily take profits on long - platinum short - palladium and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage positions [4]. Commodity Indexes (December 29, 2025) - **Comprehensive Indexes**: The comprehensive index was 2339.89, a 0.59% decline; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, a 0.42% decline; the industrial products index was 2258.87, a 0.70% decline [49]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On December 29, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index was 2676.44, with a daily decline of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 3.18%, a 1 - month increase of 6.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.95% [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for most products is "oscillation", indicating a neutral stance on the short - to - medium - term investment in the black building materials industry [4][9][11][12][14][18][19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy in 2026 remains positive with the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy. In the off - season, steel continues to reduce inventory, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. The futures market shows an oscillatory trend. With steel mills resuming production and the expectation of winter storage replenishment, iron ore prices are strong, while the coal - coke industry chain has increasing inventory, and the fourth round of coke price cuts has started, putting pressure on the futures market [3][4] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, and there is an expectation of a price increase from the low level for furnace materials [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Elements - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Steel mills made small - scale replenishments, and there was strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. Spot prices are strong, but after the price increase, spot trading is poor [4][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have high inventory and slow down replenishment. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum. The leading steel enterprises in East China proposed a price cut of 30 yuan/ton last weekend, and the spot market is expected to follow the price cut [4][11] Carbon Elements - **Coke**: The cost side has shown signs of stabilizing. After the fourth - round price cut is implemented, the spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the Chinese New Year approaches, the winter storage intensity increases, and the supply pressure will be relieved [4][12] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally. There is still upward momentum for both futures and spot prices as the overall supply pressure will be alleviated with the improvement of Mongolian coal imports in January [4][13] Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose and is expected to become looser with the release of new production capacity in Inner Mongolia. The cost side currently supports the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the medium term [4][5][18] - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are both weak. Alloy plants reduce production to match the declining demand. The cost of semi - coke still drags down the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4][5][19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply is expected to be disrupted, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [4][5][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [4][5][17] Steel - Spot market transactions are average. The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the decline in the output of five major steel products has slowed down. The demand is seasonally declining, but there is still support. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the mid - level inventory is still high year - on - year. The cost side shows differentiation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the pre - holiday replenishment rhythm [9] Commodity Index - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial product index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The steel industry chain index on the same day had a daily increase of 0.11%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.02%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.27% [105][107]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - Paper pulp: Bullish with oscillations [1][2][15] - Oils and fats: Oscillating [5] - Protein meal: Oscillating [7] - Corn/starch: Bullish with oscillations [9] - Hogs: Oscillating [9] - Natural rubber: Bullish in the short - term [11] - Synthetic rubber: Bullish with oscillations in the medium - term [13] - Cotton: Bullish with oscillations in the long - term [13] - Sugar: Bearish with oscillations in the medium - long term [14] - Double - offset paper: Bullish with oscillations in the short - term [16] - Logs: Range - bound oscillations [19] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, considering factors such as supply and demand, production, policy, and macro - environment. It concludes that most products will show oscillating trends, with some having bullish or bearish tendencies in different time frames. For example, paper pulp has more bullish factors currently, while sugar is under long - term downward pressure due to expected supply surpluses [1][5][7][9][11][13][14][15][16][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: After facing upward pressure, it experiences a phased decline, and its futures trend is affected by capital inflows and outflows. The market is expected to be bullish with oscillations [1][2][15] - **Logic**: Bullish factors include rising阔叶浆 prices, supply reduction expectations from mill shutdowns, potential production cuts by other mills, and relatively high actual demand. Bearish factors are difficulties in cost transfer for downstream paper, seasonal decline in demand starting from January, and high hedging pressure on traders if downstream purchases remain low [1][15] 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The market shows narrow - range oscillations, with the basis of rapeseed oil slightly increasing. It is expected that soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate [5] - **Logic**: Macroeconomic factors such as international crude oil price fluctuations and geopolitical issues affect the market. From an industrial perspective, South American soybeans have a high - yield expectation, US soybean demand is uncertain, domestic soybean supply is relatively sufficient, palm oil has a seasonal production decline and improving exports, and rapeseed oil has short - term supply shortages [5] 3.3 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: US soybean exports face pressure, and domestic soybean auctions put pressure on soybean meal. It is expected that US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal will all oscillate [7] - **Logic**: Internationally, the high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans affects US soybean exports. Domestically, continuous domestic soybean auctions, slow seasonal inventory reduction of soybeans and soybean meal, and weak downstream consumption limit price increases [7] 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: As the delivery approaches, the basis converges, and the price is expected to be bullish with oscillations [9] - **Logic**: The market is in a tight - balance state. Upstream, snow affects the supply rhythm, and downstream, inventory is at a low historical level. After the New Year's Day, there may be inventory - building demand [9] 3.5 Hogs - **Viewpoint**: The supply volume decreases, and the spot and futures prices of hogs rebound. It is expected to oscillate, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9] - **Logic**: In the short - term, there is a supply reduction at the end of the year and increased holiday demand. In the long - term, sow production capacity is being reduced, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [9] 3.6 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The price slightly declines due to commodity market fluctuations. It is expected to be bullish in the short - term [10][11] - **Logic**: The price decline is affected by the overall commodity market adjustment. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market, but demand is weak after the price increase [11] 3.7 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The price of butadiene increases, and the market runs strongly. It is expected to be bullish with oscillations in the medium - term [12][13] - **Logic**: The improvement of butadiene's supply - demand pattern is relatively certain. Although there is short - term upward pressure, the market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [13] 3.8 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The price decreases with reduced positions. It is expected to be bullish with oscillations in the long - term [13] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, cotton consumption is good, and the inventory accumulation is slower than expected. Policy factors also boost the market. In the short - term, the price has a correction due to over - rapid increase [13] 3.9 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The rebound height is limited, and there is still downward pressure. It is expected to be bearish with oscillations in the medium - long term [14] - **Logic**: Globally, major sugar - producing countries are expected to increase production in the 25/26 season, leading to a supply surplus. Domestically, China also expects an increase in production in the new season [14] 3.10 Double - offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment improves, and the price runs strongly. It is expected to be bullish with oscillations in the short - term [16] - **Logic**: Paper mills' price increases boost market sentiment, but the market is squeezed by high costs and weak demand. The effectiveness of price transmission needs to be observed [16] 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The trading is light, and the market oscillates. It is expected to be range - bound with oscillations [19] - **Logic**: The market has a contradiction between weak current fundamentals and strong long - term expectations. The supply pressure will gradually ease, and there is a game point in the 03 contract [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic aggregate in Q3 exceeded expectations, but growth momentum showed signs of marginal slowdown. The consumer confidence index in December dropped to 89.1, lower than the market expectation of 91.0. The Fed is likely to adopt a more cautious and accommodative approach. Factory orders in the manufacturing sector recovered moderately, and the differentiation in high - end manufacturing deepened [6] - **Domestic Macro**: In November, demand recovery was slow, with consumption and investment under pressure, and the year - on - year decline in industrial profits widened. However, the cumulative profits from January to November still showed a slight positive growth, indicating the economy is "stabilizing at a low level" with policy support. There are industry differentiations, with the equipment manufacturing industry leading the growth (+7.2%, some industries with high growth), the raw material manufacturing industry accelerating (+22.1%), the consumer goods industry turning positive, and the automobile industry slightly weakening (-0.3%). Profit improvement mainly relies on supply contraction and price recovery, and may be constrained in the future if demand fails to pick up and the base increases [6] - **Asset Views**: The macro environment is still favorable for the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors, but short - term risks need to be watched out for. In the precious metals sector, the risk of volatility in silver increases after a sharp rise, and further corrections are possible. In the non - ferrous metals sector, there are opportunities to buy on dips for commodities with more supply disruptions, such as copper, aluminum, and tin. Attention should also be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. For the domestic equity sector, a defensive strategy is recommended at the end of the year and during the policy window period [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures all had negative daily and weekly fluctuations, but different monthly, quarterly, and annual changes. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily decline of 0.61%, a weekly decline of 0.61%, a monthly increase of 3.08%, a quarterly decline of 0.17%, and an annual increase of 17.58% [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most Treasury bond futures had negative daily and weekly fluctuations. For example, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decline of 0.07%, a weekly decline of 0.07%, etc [2] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat, and different currency pairs had various changes. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate had no change in pips, and the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate was flat daily but had other period - specific changes [2] - **Interest Rates**: Various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate, 10Y Chinese Treasury bond yield, and 10Y US Treasury bond yield had different fluctuations [2] 3.2 Hot Industries - Different industries in the CITIC industry index had different price changes. The comprehensive finance, national defense and military industry, and petroleum and petrochemical industries had positive daily and weekly changes, while the pharmaceutical, food and beverage, and power equipment and new energy industries had negative daily and weekly changes [2] 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 2.52%, while ICE Brent crude oil had a daily decline of 2.44%. NYMEX natural gas had a daily increase of 3.00%, and ICE UK natural gas was flat [2] - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold and silver had significant increases, with COMEX gold having an annual increase of 72.85% and COMEX silver having a large annual increase [2] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: LME copper, zinc, lead, etc. showed different price trends. LME copper had a flat daily price but positive changes over other periods [2] - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans, wheat, and other agricultural products had different price fluctuations. For example, CBOT soybeans had a daily decline of 0.37% [2] 3.4 Domestic Main Commodities - Different domestic commodities such as shipping (container shipping to Europe), precious metals (gold and silver), non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products had various daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes. For example, container shipping to Europe had a daily decline of 0.09%, and gold had a daily decline of 0.90% [3] 3.5 Viewpoints Summary - **Financial**: The stock market is waiting for a main line, and the bond market has disturbing factors. Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options to fluctuate, and Treasury bond futures to fluctuate [7] - **Precious Metals**: They are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with silver having greater elasticity [7] - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the resumption of voyages in the far - month contracts of container shipping to Europe [7] - **Black Building Materials**: The real - world pressure exists, and the disk performance is under pressure, with most varieties expected to fluctuate [7] - **Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Wait for the macro - level to become clearer, with basic metals in a state of shock and consolidation [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The pattern of strong aromatics and weak olefins remains unchanged, and different chemical varieties have different short - term outlooks, mostly in a state of shock [9] - **Agriculture**: The market is worried about the supply, with different agricultural products having different short - term trends, such as soybean meal leading the near - month contracts to rise [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Neutral (Oscillating) [6] - Polysilicon: Bullish (Oscillating Bullish) [7] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish (Oscillating Bullish) [11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to pre - holiday profit - taking by funds, new energy metals experience significant fluctuations. However, the concern about supply disruptions remains, and there are opportunities to buy low after the price of lithium carbonate stops falling. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price center. The supply and demand surplus of lithium carbonate is expected to narrow, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: As of December 29, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 1.3% month - on - month, with market inventory down 0.5% and factory inventory down 1.8%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 387.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In November, exports increased by 21.8% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January to November decreased by 0.8% year - on - year [6]. - **Demand**: In November, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 75% month - on - month and decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the cumulative installed capacity from January to November increased by 33% year - on - year. In December, the demand from the polysilicon industry was weak, the production of silicone decreased, and the demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry was limited [6]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, but due to the fluctuations in coal prices and market sentiment, the price is expected to oscillate [7]. Polysilicon - **Price and Market Information**: In the week of December 29, the average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 1.32% week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 30. From January to November 2025, the export volume decreased by 32% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 53% year - on - year. The newly added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to November increased by 33% year - on - year. A polysilicon platform company was established, and two new brands were added to the polysilicon futures registration [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the long - term, the anti - involution policy may restrict the supply. The demand for polysilicon has been gradually weakening since November. Although the anti - involution policy is expected to continue to ferment and the downstream prices of photovoltaic have stopped falling and stabilized, the short - term price is expected to be oscillating bullish [8][9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Company News**: On December 29, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 8.96%, and the total open interest decreased. The spot price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate also increased. Several leading cathode material manufacturers announced production line maintenance, which will reduce production in January [10]. - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: Currently, the demand for lithium carbonate is marginally weakening, but the long - term demand expectation is strong. Although the maintenance of material factories in January may lead to demand weakening and increased inventory, the price is expected to be oscillating bullish, and the decline is limited, with opportunities to buy low [11]. Market Indexes - **Comprehensive Indexes**: On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2258.87, down 0.70% [53]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On December 29, 2025, the index was 498.73, with a daily decline of 5.69%, a 5 - day decline of 1.91%, a 1 - month increase of 8.76%, and a year - to - date increase of 20.94% [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to medium - term, before the New Year's Day, funds take profits, causing base metals to rise and then fall. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. After copper, aluminum, and tin stop falling, low - buying and long - position opportunities can be considered. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply and demand, so the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. - Different metals have different price trends: copper prices are expected to be strong due to strong supply contraction expectations; alumina prices are under pressure with weak cost support; aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strong due to positive macro expectations; aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strong with cost support; zinc prices will oscillate with non - ferrous metals due to the divergence of domestic and foreign inventory trends; lead prices may weaken in supply and demand despite rebounding with non - ferrous metals; nickel prices will oscillate due to Indonesian policy expectations; stainless steel prices will oscillate as nickel iron prices rise; tin prices will oscillate at a high level due to the resilience of rigid demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: China's copper smelters set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/pound. In November 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to November was 11.76%. On December 29, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the contract [7]. - Logic: The US economy is resilient, and the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions increase, and the long - term processing fee hits a record low. Chinese copper smelters plan to reduce production, strengthening the supply contraction expectation. Demand is weak in the off - season, and LME's position limit reduces the risk of a short squeeze [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On December 29, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina rose, and the national weighted index also increased. The alumina warehouse receipt decreased [7][8]. - Logic: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity fluctuates, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the inventory is still accumulating. Raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is general. The warehouse receipt is being destocked, but there is pressure on the upper side of the price [8]. - Outlook: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate [8]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On December 29, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods rose. In November 2025, China's unforged aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. South32 raised the offer price of aluminum ingot premiums to Japan [9]. - Logic: The macro outlook is positive. Domestic production capacity is high, while overseas power shortages may tighten supply in the long term. High aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory accumulates [9][10]. - Outlook: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strong. In the medium - term, the price center may rise [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On December 29, the price of Baotai ADC12 increased, and the warehouse receipt increased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started trial production [11]. - Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate increased, but there are still risks of production cuts in the medium - term. Demand may weaken marginally after the end of the automotive seasonal sales rush [11]. - Outlook: In the short - and medium - term, aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On December 29, the spot prices of zinc in different regions had different premiums to the main contract. As of December 29, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. In November 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports increased [12][13]. - Logic: The macro outlook is positive. Short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and smelter profits decline, reducing zinc ingot production. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and demand is average. In the short - term, zinc ingot exports will continue, and social inventory may decline. In the long - term, supply may increase while demand growth is limited [13]. - Outlook: In the short - term, zinc prices will oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, there is a possibility of price decline [13]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On December 29, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots also rose. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the futures warehouse receipt increased slightly [14]. - Logic: The spot premium decreased, and the original - recycled price difference increased. The price of waste batteries rose, expanding the smelting profit of recycled lead, and production is expected to increase. Demand from electric bicycles weakens, and the battery factory's operating rate declines marginally [14][15]. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On December 29, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt increased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased. The average price of high - nickel pig iron rose. Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore RKAB and the mineral benchmark price calculation formula [15][16][17]. - Logic: Domestic nickel production decreased in November, but Indonesian production increased, and overall supply pressure remains. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is weak. If Indonesia's RKAB plan is implemented, the supply - demand balance will improve [18]. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [18]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt decreased. The average price of high - nickel pig iron rose. Some Indonesian nickel mines face fines [19]. - Logic: Nickel iron prices rise, providing cost support. Stainless steel production is expected to decline in December. Inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipt is at a low level [20]. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [21]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On December 29, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt decreased. The spot price of tin ingots rose [21]. - Logic: Tin supply is a major concern. Chinese imports from Myanmar increase, but there are still risks. Indonesian supply may be restricted in Q1 2026. African production is limited. Demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the growth of related industries [21]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [21]. 3.2行情监测 - Copper: No specific monitoring information provided [24]. - Alumina: No specific monitoring information provided [39]. - Aluminum: No specific monitoring information provided [52]. - Aluminum Alloy: No specific monitoring information provided [65]. - Zinc: No specific monitoring information provided [76]. - Lead: No specific monitoring information provided [89]. - Nickel: No specific monitoring information provided [103]. - Stainless Steel: No specific monitoring information provided [119]. - Tin: No specific monitoring information provided [129]. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2676.44, with a daily decline of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 3.18%, a 1 - month increase of 6.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.95% [147][149].