投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-11-26 美国零售销售弱于预期，PPI持平预期，宏观信号整体偏鸽，12⽉降息交 易进⼀步巩固。⻩⾦在数据公布后迅速收复此前因俄乌谈判进展传闻带来 的回调，再度站稳4140-4150区间。 重点资讯： 1） 美国和乌克兰官员周一试图缩小双方在结束乌克兰战争计划上的 分歧，此前他们同意修改一份被基辅及其欧洲盟友视为克里姆林宫愿 望清单的美国提案。 2） 美国总统特朗普周一签署行政命令，在政府内部启动一项全面性 的计划，建立整合式人工智能平台，利用联邦科学数据集来训练下一 代技术。 3） 美联储理事沃勒周一表示，现有数据显示，美国就业市场依然疲 软，足以促使美联储在12月9-10日会议上再次降息25个基点。不过， 此后的行动将取决于即将发布的"大量"数据，目前美国统计机构正 在处理因政府停摆而延误的工作。 价格逻辑： 美国9月PPI年率与月率均符合预期（2.7% / 0.3%），对通胀趋势影 响有限；但零售销售明显弱于预期（0.2% vs 0.4%），控制组下降 至-0.1%，并伴随小幅下修。弱消费数据强化市场对12月降息的预 ...

中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-11-26 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 现实供需偏紧，碳酸锂再度领涨新能源 金属 新能源观点：现实供需偏紧，碳酸锂再度领涨新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需双增，供需延续偏紧格局；工业硅和多晶硅供 需趋松。中短期来看，广期所针对碳酸锂限仓且上调日内平今仓手续 费，投资者对供需偏紧的乐观情绪快速降温，碳酸锂一度杀跌，不 过，考虑到碳酸锂现实供需偏紧，短时冲击过后，投资者重新聚焦偏 紧的供需面，碳酸锂再度领涨新能源金属。长期来看，硅供应端收缩 预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶 段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，碳酸锂长期 供需走向需要重新审视。 ⼯业硅观点：过剩压⼒仍在，硅价震荡运⾏ 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅⾼位震荡 碳酸锂观点：需求预期提振，锂价重新⾛强 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号F03093201 投资咨询号Z0020 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: On November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, significantly boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is turning, and it's advisable to follow key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [6]. - Domestic: Domestic endogenous momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The loan prime rate has been stable since May's 10 - basis - point cut. New and second - hand housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but land transactions remain low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [6]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, the Fed's October meeting minutes being hawkish, and strong September non - farm payrolls data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. After the New York Fed President's dovish speech, the market risk appetite may improve in the short term. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a near - term rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Endogenous momentum is weak. Policy - based financial instruments, special bond issuance, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure. The loan prime rate has been stable. Housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but real - estate physical work has declined [6]. - **Asset Views**: Due to Fed policy uncertainties, asset prices were initially pressured. After the dovish speech, market risk appetite may improve. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index has slowed, and hedging forces are taking profits. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention on option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed higher. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on the implementation of monetary policies [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The fundamentals are improving, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly weakened, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policies [7]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand have slightly declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Near - month delivery is under pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weakened with the sector, but cost support remains. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price has declined with the sector, but cost support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Spot losses are increasing, and cold - repair expectations are rising. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Coal prices have fallen, weakening cost support. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to differences within the Fed, copper prices are consolidating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation persists, and prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on ore production and electrolytic aluminum复产 [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory is decreasing, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro risks and zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Social inventory has decreased, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless - steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - **Tin**: Raw - material supply is tight, and prices are strongly supported. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on Wa State's复产 and demand [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply pressure remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and policies [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are volatile, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and domestic photovoltaic policies [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trading sentiment has cooled, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are volatile, and supply pressure continues. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on cost - side developments [9]. - **Asphalt**: The rise of rebar prices has driven up asphalt futures. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The expectation of a Russia - Ukraine agreement has weakened fuel prices. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has followed the weak crude - oil market. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disturbances are confirmed, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro - energy and overseas production stoppages [9]. - **Urea**: Centralized procurement has slowed, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on export quotas and Indian tenders [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and some short - sellers have closed positions. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade [9]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and prices are adjusting. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations, macro events, and aromatics blending [9]. - **PTA**: Fundamentals have improved marginally, and profits are being repaired. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations and macro events [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand is stable, and it follows the upstream market. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on downstream purchasing and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Cost support has increased, and prices have rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on production cuts and new - plant commissioning [9]. - **Propylene**: The spot market is strong, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: Fundamental pressure is priced in, and attention should be paid to maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance has increased slightly, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has faded, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices, macro policies, and plant operations [9]. - **PVC**: High inventory is suppressing prices, and it may be tied to production cuts. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - valuation and weak supply - demand conditions lead to price fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are diverging, with palm oil being weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Rapeseed - meal prices have risen, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to narrow. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Bullish drivers continue, and prices have risen again. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on demand, the macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant, and prices are weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Floods in production areas have boosted bullish sentiment, but the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, raw - material prices, and the macro - economy [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw - material transactions support prices. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices have rebounded, and the 1 - 5 spread has widened. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have continued to rebound. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - **Pulp**: The balance of long and short factors remains, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the macro - economy and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Paper**: It is following the raw - material market and fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on shipments and dispatches [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Protein meal: Bullish [2][3][9] - Corn/starch: Bullish [10] - Live pigs: Bearish [12] - Natural rubber: Neutral [13][15] - Synthetic rubber: Bearish [16] - Cotton: Neutral [16] - Sugar: Bearish [17] - Pulp: Neutral [18] - Offset paper: Neutral [19] - Logs: Bearish [21] - Oils and fats: Mixed (soybean oil - neutral, palm oil - bearish, rapeseed oil - neutral) [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having their own influencing factors and price outlooks [1][6][9] - For protein meal, both international and domestic factors contribute to a bullish outlook, but attention should be paid to factors such as Chinese purchases of US soybeans and South American weather [2][9] - In the oils and fats market, the performance of different oils varies, affected by macro - environment, industrial policies, and supply - demand relationships [6][7] - Corn prices are driven up by multiple factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, rigid demand for replenishment, and transportation issues [10][11] - Live pig prices are weak due to abundant supply in the short - to - medium term, but supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [12] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **International situation**: Multiple factors such as the possible occurrence of La Nina, drought risks in South America, and changes in US and Brazilian soybean exports and压榨量 lead to an expected bullish trend for US soybeans [2][9] - **Domestic situation**: Import profit of Chinese soybeans is restored, oil mill soybean压榨量 is high, and the supply and demand of domestic protein meal are relatively balanced in the short term. Attention should be paid to Chinese purchases of US soybeans, profit repair, and downstream replenishment [2][9] Oils and Fats - **Macro - environment**: Fed officials' dovish remarks boost the expectation of a December interest rate cut, and the impact of the US promoting a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement on crude oil needs to be monitored [6] - **Industrial situation**: Pay attention to China's purchases of US soybeans, US biodiesel policies, South American soybean planting progress, and the supply and demand of different oils [6] Corn/Starch - **Price information**: The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract increased by 1.63% [10] - **Driving factors**: Farmers' reluctance to sell, rigid demand for replenishment, concentrated demand in the Northeast, traders' passive grain - grabbing, and tight transportation capacity drive the price up [11] Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short - to - medium term, the supply is abundant, but the sow production capacity has shown signs of reduction since the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [12] - **Demand**: The demand is insufficient, and the pig - to - meat ratio has declined, with sporadic bacon - curing in the South [12] - **Outlook**: The near - term price is weak, and the far - term price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [12] Natural Rubber - **Market information**: The prices of some rubber products and raw materials have changed, and the export volume of Thailand and Vietnam has decreased year - on - year [13][14] - **Logic**: Although there is speculation about floods in Thailand, the supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand has not changed significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [15] Synthetic Rubber - **Market information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene have changed [16] - **Logic**: The stable成交 of butadiene supports the disk, but the fundamentals and raw material pressure are large. It is recommended to short at high prices [16] Cotton - **Market information**: The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton 01 contract increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Logic**: The supply is increasing, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is supported by cost and downstream purchases and pressured by hedging [16] Sugar - **Market information**: The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract increased [17] - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply, and the price has a downward drive. In the short term, the 01 contract has certain support at 5300 yuan/ton [17] Pulp - **Market information**: The prices of some pulp products have changed [17] - **Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. The pulp is expected to fluctuate widely, and different contracts have different pressure and support levels [18] Double - Offset Paper - **Logic**: The continuous decline of raw material prices and weak social demand lead to the low - level weak operation of double - offset paper. The price may be supported in November but may decline in December [19][20] Logs - **Logic**: The fundamentals are weak, the supply is expected to increase in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly around the cost line [21]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives a medium - term outlook for each variety, including "Oscillation", "Oscillation with an upward bias", etc. 2. Core View The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the macro - environment is warm with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December, overseas interest - rate cut expectations, and positive signals from the China - US presidential call. However, as the off - season deepens, the fundamentals have limited highlights, and the rebound momentum of the futures market weakens. Iron ore prices are strong due to expected restocking demand, and coking coal fundamentals are not significantly weakened, with support for far - month contracts. Glass prices are suppressed by high inventory, and soda ash prices are restricted by oversupply despite cost support [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased, arrivals increased this period, and port inventory decreased slightly. Short - term hot metal is expected to be supported, and restocking demand may be released, so iron ore prices are strong. The contradiction is not prominent, and prices are expected to run strongly [4][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply increased and demand was stable. After the price decline, the cost - performance ratio recovered, and the downside space is limited. It is expected to oscillate [4][10]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: After profit repair and environmental protection relaxation, supply stabilized. Short - term steel mill demand supported inventory depletion, but cost support weakened, and there are expectations of price cuts. The futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [4][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic supply remained low, and fundamentals were not significantly weakened. There are restocking expectations for winter storage. Near - month contracts are affected by delivery, expected to oscillate, and far - month contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [4][13]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support remains, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse, and price pressure is high. The futures market is expected to run at a low level [4][16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: High costs support the price bottom, but supply - demand is loose, suppressing the upside. The futures market is expected to run at a low level [7][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply may be disrupted, but mid - and downstream inventory is high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, prices will be suppressed; otherwise, prices will rise. It is expected to oscillate weakly [7][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support, but oversupply restricts price increases. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][16]. 4. Market Data Steel - Spot market transactions were average. Steel mill profitability decreased, but production enthusiasm was high, and output increased slightly. Demand was resilient, and inventory continued to decline, but it was still higher than the same period last year [9]. Iron Ore - Port transactions decreased. Spot prices mostly rose. Off - season hot metal may decline seasonally, but there is short - term support, and restocking demand has not been released. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly [9]. Scrap Steel - Arrivals increased this week, and EAF profits improved. Supply increased, demand was stable, and prices are expected to oscillate [10]. Coke - Futures followed coking coal to oscillate under pressure. Spot prices were stable. Supply increased slightly, demand decreased slightly, and inventory in coking enterprises increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12]. Coking Coal - Futures oscillated under pressure. Spot prices declined. Domestic supply recovery was slow, imports were high, demand weakened, and inventory in mines increased slightly. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate, and far - month contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [13]. Glass - Spot prices were stable. Supply may be disrupted, and mid - and downstream inventory was high. If there is no more cold - repair, prices will be suppressed; otherwise, prices will rise. It is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Soda Ash - Spot prices declined. Supply was flat, demand was weak, and inventory decreased. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [14][16]. Manganese Silicon - Futures prices first rose and then fell. Spot prices were stable. Cost support was strong, but supply - demand was loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [16][17]. Silicon Iron - Futures prices oscillated. Spot prices were stable. High costs supported the price bottom, but supply - demand was loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [18]. 5. Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index all increased on November 25, 2025 [100]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index increased by 0.30% on November 25, 2025, with a 0.08% increase in the past 5 days, a - 1.93% decrease in the past month, and a - 5.92% decrease since the beginning of the year [101].

期货有限公司 Futures Company Limited 需求强劲格局未改, 情绪修复下锂价凹汁 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 风险提示 风险因素:供应端超预期复产;需求不及预期;政策变动 研究员: | 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 | 投资咨询号:Z0016667 | 白 帅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 | 投资咨询号:Z0021455 | 王雨欣 | | 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 | 投资咨询号:Z0022534 | 桂 伶 | | 张 远 从业资格号:F03147334 | 投资咨询号:Z0022750 | | 重要是示.. 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到成阅读本报告内容而观相关人员为客户、市场用风险。投资需谨慎。 鱼走青明。除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司（X下简称"中信期货》拥有本报告的版权或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货时于本报告所就的信息。观点以及数据的监狱 性、可靠性、时效 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Silver, Copper, Zinc: Potential [5] - Gold: On hold [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of the silver price difference fell to a neutral level, and the spot market for silver in London is tight, supporting the price difference. The COMEX and LME copper price spread may narrow. The pressure of squeezing zinc on the LME will ease. The DXY in Q4 might be in the range of 95 - 102. Gold and silver prices are in a shock adjustment period, and their internal and external price differences are gradually falling. The London silver squeeze risk has not been completely lifted, and the price of silver in the external market still has support [6][7][15]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold** - Last week, the gold price difference dropped from its peak, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA price difference fluctuated. This week, the gold price continues the shock adjustment period, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets gradually falls. It is recommended to take profit on the strategy of shorting the price difference between domestic and foreign markets at high prices [15]. - **Silver** - Last week, the silver price difference fluctuated and then dropped, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA price difference fluctuated. This week, the risk of a silver squeeze in London has not been completely lifted, the price of silver in the external market still has support, the valuation of the price difference is neutral, and the strategy of shorting the price difference at high prices is maintained [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper** - Last week, the domestic copper inventory was depleted slowly. Considering that the copper import window remained in a loss, the cross - market strategy suggested a short - term wait - and - see approach. This week, cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [25]. - **Aluminum** - Last week, the domestic weekly aluminum ingot inventory first rose and then declined, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased. In the short term, the foreign - exchange ratio remained within a fluctuation range, and cross - market arbitrage is currently on hold [32]. - **Zinc** - Last week, the window for exporting Chinese zinc opened, domestic zinc inventories were depleting, and the LME planned to limit large open interest in near contracts, which is expected to alleviate the squeeze pressure on zinc. This week, it is recommended to go long on SHFE zinc and short on LME zinc [38][43]. - **Lead** - Last week, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, the smelter inventory remained low, the canceled warrants for LME lead increased again, and the destocking continued. This week, cross - market arbitrage for lead is temporarily on hold [44]. - **Nickel** - Last week, the nickel import window was closed, with fluctuations within a numerical range, and the situation of extreme price differences has significantly improved. This week, cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [51]. - **Tin** - Last week, the tin price ratio rebounded, the spot tin import window remained closed, the import loss was 16,328 yuan/ton, and the driving force behind the tin price spread was not obvious. This week, cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [55]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore** - Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers and experienced slight fluctuations. This week, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [61]. Energy - **Crude Oil** - Last week, the SC - Brent price spread edged higher. This week, due to the high volatility of freight rates and the uncertainty of Russian crude oil supply, it is recommended to wait and see [65]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)** - Last week, the price gap continued to decline. The cold wave and the expectation of increased exports continued to push up the price of natural gas in the United States, while in November, the mild temperature and strong wind power output in Europe led to weak gas - power demand, and the increased LNG supply pressured the price. This week, it is recommended to wait and see, and be cautious about short - selling [100]. Agriculturals - **Soybean** - Last week, the import crushing margins of soybeans were bottom - oscillating. With the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, an improved margin is expected. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [71]. - **Sugar** - Last week, the import crushing margins of sugar edged higher, and it is expected that in the medium to long term, the Chinese market likely outperforms ICE. This week, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [75]. - **Natural Rubber** - Last week, there was little change, and the price spread remained in the non - arbitrage range. Globally, as the tapping season begins, there is an expectation of increased supply, but there is no improvement on the demand side, leading to weakness in prices. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [84]. Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper** - Last week, the price divergence between COMEX and LME copper was due to capital outflows to COMEX copper. Currently, with the Fed's decisions diverging and more governors' statements turning hawkish, there is uncertainty about the December rate - cut decision. Gold and silver prices are fluctuating, while COMEX copper continues to accumulate inventory and LME copper depletes inventory. This week, it is recommended to short COMEX copper and long LME copper [85]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS** - Last week, the Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS rebounded. This week, due to the oscillating spot discount of Middle - Eastern crude oil and the high volatility of freight rates, the short - term indication is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [90]. - **WTI - Brent** - Last week, the WTI - Brent price spread fluctuated. This week, with the U.S. refinery operating rate stabilizing and rebounding, low refined - oil inventories, and the expected stable shale - oil production under the background of oscillating oil prices, the price - spread driver is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [96].

| 11 中信期货 | | | 海外装置扰动,甲醇期价反弹 | | 2025/11/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重丹丹 | | 杨家明 | 杨晓宇 | 杨黎 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | 从业资格号:F03142141 | | 从业资格号:F3046931 | 从业资格号:F03086737 | 从业资格号:F03147405 | 证监许可 2012 669 | | ਸਿ | 投资咨询号:Z0021744 | 投资咨询号:Z0015448 | 投资咨询号:Z0020561 | 投资咨询号:Z0022768 | 름 | | 究员 | 陈子昂 | 尹伊君 | 李云旭 | | | | 从业资格号:F03108012 | | 从业资格号:F03107980 | 从业资格号:F03141405 | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0021454 | | 投资咨询亏:Z0021451 | 投资咨询号:Z0021671 | | | 1. 从基本面来看,甲醇整体供需格局偏弱:沿海甲醇库存长期累库下达到历史高位,截止11月19日,已有约143.93万吨, 相比去年同期偏 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of November 20, 2025, the domestic styrene operating rate decreased slightly, while overseas and global styrene operating rates increased, but all were at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs - **Domestic Styrene Situation** - As of November 20, 2025, the domestic styrene operating rate was 68.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3 pct and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 pct [3] - The weekly output was 34.29 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons from the previous period. One unit in East China restarted, and one unit each in Northeast, East, and South China adjusted their loads, resulting in a slight decline in output [3] - **Overseas Styrene Situation** - As of November 24, 2025, the overseas styrene operating rate was 74.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 12.1 pct, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years [3] - The 525,000 - ton US Amsty unit and the 580,000 - ton South Korea Lotte unit restarted [3] - **Global Styrene Situation** - As of November 24, 2025, the global styrene operating rate was 71.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 pct, at the lowest level in the past six years [3]

1. 从基本面来看,甲醇整体供需格局偏弱:沿海甲醇库存长期累库下达到历史高位,截止11月19日,已有约143.93万吨, 相比去年同期偏高。高库存现实压制下,甲醇期价难有上行空间;内地甲醇供应端虽检修扰动多发,但下游烯烃总体偏弱 势,以刚需采购为主,缺乏主动囤货意愿,难以改善总体需求的疲软态势。截止11月21日,国产甲醇开工率位于88.75%的 高位。 | 11 中信期货 | | | 海外装置扰动,甲醇期价反弹 | | 2025/11/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重丹丹 | | 杨家明 | 杨晓宇 | 杨黎 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | 从业资格号:F03142141 | | 从业资格号:F3046931 | 从业资格号:F03086737 | 从业资格号:F03147405 | 证监许可 2012 669 | | ਸਿ | 投资咨询号:Z0021744 | 投资咨询号:Z0015448 | 投资咨询号:Z0020561 | 投资咨询号:Z0022768 | 름 | | 究员 | 陈子昂 | 尹伊君 | 李云旭 | | | | 从业资格号:F03 ...