1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in a state of "oscillation" or "oscillation on the weak side," suggesting a relatively cautious view of the energy and chemical industry [3][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's Q3 economic data is strong, but the weakness in the energy and chemical sector mainly stems from the supply side. The good economic data provides some support to the crude oil market, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [1]. - The export of chemical products in September generally maintained a good trend, with polyester products performing particularly well. Expanding overseas markets may be the future hope for the chemical industry [2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical industry is still anchored by crude oil and is expected to continue its weak oscillation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Macroeconomic Situation - China's Q3 GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the GDP growth rate from January to September was 5.2%. In September, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year - on - year. The demand for petroleum in September increased by 6% year - on - year, continuing the positive year - on - year growth since June [1]. - The President of Ukraine stated that the Russia - Ukraine conflict will not end soon, but the pre - conditions for peace have emerged. Russia's oil transportation to India continues [8]. 3.2 Product - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Macroeconomic factors disrupt the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Supply is in an increasing phase dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC+ production. Later, there will be pressure on accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation due to the peak and decline of refinery operations. Although China's inventory has decreased recently, overseas and sea - borne inventories have increased, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still being realized. The fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and macro - risks are fluctuating. Oil prices are expected to continue their weak oscillation. If concerns about tariffs ease or there are temporary geopolitical risks, oil prices may rebound but the downward trend is difficult to reverse [8]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price is testing the 3200 resistance level. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export discount to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the positive impact of China - US negotiations remains. In the short term, crude oil has entered an oscillation mode, and asphalt futures prices will follow the oscillation of crude oil. The asphalt spot price has been continuously falling, the asphalt - fuel oil price difference is expected to continue to decline, the asphalt production plan in October has increased by 19% year - on - year, the supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the driving force supporting the high premium of asphalt has significantly weakened. The pricing power of asphalt futures is expected to return to Shandong. Under the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the pressure on asphalt inventory accumulation is still high. Currently, asphalt is still overvalued compared to crude oil, rebar, low - sulfur fuel oil, and high - sulfur fuel oil, and the overvalued premium is starting to decline [9]. 3.2.3 Fuel Oil - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Viewpoint**: The fuel oil futures price has entered an oscillation mode. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export discount to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled. Among the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil (the Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and the Palestine - Israel conflict), the Palestine - Israel conflict and the Russia - US call have a negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the short term, the fuel oil futures price will follow the oscillation of crude oil. As refinery operations increase, the demand for fuel oil processing by refineries gradually increases, but the demand for gasoline in the US is weak, the demand for residue processing is sluggish, and the peak power - generation season in the Middle East is coming to an end, so the demand for fuel oil is still weak [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has declined following crude oil, and the 3500 resistance level is effective in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and substitution by high - sulfur fuel oil. It is undervalued and is expected to follow the movement of crude oil. Fundamentally, the reduction of export tax rebates for refined oil products in China and the cancellation of export tax rebates for UCO have increased the supply pressure of refined oil products in China. The pressure to reduce oil and increase chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, which is facing a trend of increased supply and decreased demand and may maintain a low - valuation operation [11]. 3.2.4 Chemical Products - **PX** - **Viewpoint**: Cost drags down the absolute price, but the processing margin has been repaired due to the improvement in supply - demand on a month - on - month basis. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are generally oscillating weakly, and the cost support is weak. There is no obvious positive support from its own supply - demand, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited. The import volume of PX in September remained stable with narrow fluctuations. Under the situation of strong supply and demand of PX, and with the expected commissioning of PTA, there is some support for downstream demand, and the downward space for the processing margin is limited [12]. - **PTA** - **Viewpoint**: Under the expectation of new plant commissioning and restart, both the basis and the processing margin are under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost support is average, the atmosphere in the chemical product market is cold, and PTA follows the cost to oscillate and decline. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is stable. The new Fengming plant is about to be commissioned, so there is some supply pressure. The downstream polyester demand is stable, and there is more speculative replenishment at low prices. Polyester factories have enough space to offer promotions after profit repair, and the sales volume has increased slightly. The overall price mainly fluctuates following the upstream and macro - economic sentiment [12]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Viewpoint**: After the profit improvement, there is more room for profit to promote sales, the inventory has decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the support for the low processing margin has increased. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is not good, and the short - fiber price has declined following the cost. In terms of the supply - demand pattern, short - fiber is still generally stronger than the upstream. There is still support at the low processing margin. After the weather turns cold, orders are being placed smoothly, and the export data is strong. There is no expectation of inventory accumulation in the short - fiber industry in the short term, and there is support for demand at the end of the peak season [21]. - **Bottle Chips** - **Viewpoint**: There is not much positive support from the fundamentals, and the low price stimulates the increase in speculative replenishment demand. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is average, and the bottle - chip price has declined following the cost. The spot processing margin has slightly decreased. The export data of polyester bottle chips in September was average, showing a decline compared to August. The demand is in the off - season, and there is no obvious driving force for supply - demand [22]. - **Styrene** - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is weak and inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene resumes its downward trend. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment for pure benzene in the future is still pessimistic. With styrene's own profit at a low level, the number of maintenance operations has increased, and the supply - demand situation has slightly improved. However, the biggest current pressure is the high port inventory. As the end - of - year seasonal inventory accumulation period approaches, the concern about over - inventory persists, dragging down the performance of the industrial chain prices [17]. - **Methanol** - **Viewpoint**: The coal end provides slight support, and methanol is expected to oscillate widely. - **Main Logic**: On October 20, the methanol futures price oscillated and may continue in the short term. The production enterprises are offering discounts to sell, and the downstream purchases on demand. The price is weakly declining. The port inventory of methanol is still at a relatively high level, but considering the high probability of disturbances from Iran approaching winter, methanol still has value for long - position investment at low prices. However, it is restricted by the overall weak sentiment in the energy and chemical industry, and the weakness of downstream olefins also limits the upward space of methanol. Therefore, it is advisable to view it as oscillating in the short term [26]. - **Urea** - **Viewpoint**: The price support of individual spot goods has weakened, and the urea futures price is continuously under pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 20, the mainstream spot prices of urea in Shandong and Hebei declined, and the downstream's follow - up purchases were cautious. Fundamentally, both supply and demand have weakened to a certain extent. The operation rate is at a relatively low level, and the agricultural demand has not improved. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and there is no effective positive support, so the futures price shows a narrow - range oscillation [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)** - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of substantial positive factors, and it is in a low - level range adjustment without fundamental driving forces. - **Main Logic**: The overall atmosphere in the chemical product market is cold, and ethylene glycol oscillates and declines. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is stable. The operation rate of ethylene glycol is at a high level, and multiple integrated plants have restarted. Although there will be maintenance operations at Shell and Fulian plants later, they are all short - term shutdowns with limited impact. The port inventory continues to accumulate gradually, and the price is still under pressure under the expectation of weakening supply - demand [18]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)** - **Viewpoint**: The oil price is still weak, and plastic oscillates on the weak side. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is still weak, the fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and the macro - economic expectation is constantly fluctuating. The indication of the oil price is still pessimistic. The oil price has a limited impact on the expected US production next year, and it is still in the downward - seeking bottom stage. If there are positive macro - economic and geopolitical factors, it will rebound, but the downward trend is difficult to reverse. The fundamental support for plastic itself is still limited. It is now in the second half of the "Golden September and Silver October" period. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of the price. The profit support is limited. The profit of oil - based refineries is stable under the weak oil price, the coal - based profit has slightly declined, and the profit of gas - based ethane is still good. In the short term, the futures price has slightly stabilized near the previous low, and the support strength should be monitored [31]. - **PP** - **Viewpoint**: The weakness of the oil price continues, and PP oscillates on the weak side. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates weakly, the fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and the macro - economic expectation is constantly fluctuating. The indication of the oil price is still pessimistic. The oil price has a limited impact on the expected US production next year, and it is still in the downward - seeking bottom stage. If there are positive macro - economic and geopolitical factors, it will rebound, but the downward trend is difficult to reverse. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Currently, the production continues to increase year - on - year, but the demand support is limited, and the high - level inventory will still suppress the price performance. The profit support is limited. The profit of oil - based refineries is stable under the weak oil price, the coal - based profit has slightly declined, and the profit of gas - based ethane is still good. PP has slightly stabilized near 6600, and the focus of subsequent attention is the change in maintenance operations [32]. - **PVC** - **Viewpoint**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the disturbance of China - US tariffs has resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the negotiations between the two sides at the APEC meeting. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, and the cost is stable. Specifically, the autumn maintenance of upstream plants increased in mid - October, so the PVC production will decline; the downstream operation has recovered stage by stage, and only the low - price purchases have increased; the export order signing of PVC has improved; the operation rate of calcium carbide has decreased, and the number of PVC maintenance operations has increased, so the calcium carbide price is weakly stable; there coexist the marginal production reduction of alumina plants and the stockpiling for new plant commissioning, and the caustic soda spot may fluctuate narrowly. The static cost of PVC is 5190 yuan/ton, and the dynamic cost is expected to remain stable [35]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the disturbance of China - US tariffs has resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the negotiations between the two sides at the APEC meeting. At the micro - level, the medium - and long - term demand growth for caustic soda may be limited, and the production may also increase. The spot price may oscillate narrowly, manifested as: the alumina market remains in surplus, and the industry profit is poor. Recently, marginal plants have started to reduce production; the procurement by Wenfeng has relieved the pressure on 32% caustic soda in Shandong, but the caustic soda receipt volume of Weiqiao is equal to its daily consumption, and the caustic soda inventory of Weiqiao is high; the commissioning of a 4.8 - million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and some factories have issued caustic soda procurement tenders; the non - aluminum operation rate is stable, and the replenishment intention is not high, and the operation rate will decline from November to December; the production of caustic soda in late October is not high, and the production will increase after the end of maintenance and new plant commissioning in the future [36]. 3.3 Product Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., along with their changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are presented, as well as their changes [39]. - **Inter - product Spread**: The inter - product spreads between different products such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, along with their changes [41].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-10-21 供应端政策待明朗，现实供需继续主导 新能源金属盘面 新能源观点：供应端政策待明朗，现实供需继续主导新能源⾦属盘⾯ 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需双增，矿端出现扰动，供需延续偏紧格局；工 业硅和多晶硅供需走势反复，工业硅和多晶硅有累库压力；电解钴延 续过剩格局。中短期来看，供应端政策待明朗，新能源金属价格延续 震荡格局。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重 心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，碳酸锂供应高增将限制锂价 上方高度。 ⼯业硅观点：煤炭价格反复，硅价短期震荡。 多晶硅观点：仓单注册速度加快，多晶硅价格震荡承压。 碳酸锂观点：供需双强背景下，锂价维持震荡。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号F03093201 投资咨询号Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F031 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating, including soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [5] - Protein Meals: Oscillating, covering soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [6] - Hogs: Oscillating weakly [2][8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Cotton: Oscillating within a short - term range, with prices slightly stronger this week [12] - Sugar: Oscillating weakly [13] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [14] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. In the short - term, some products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies, while in the long - term, factors like production capacity changes and consumption trends play important roles. For example, the hog market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, with short - term supply pressure but potential relief in the second half of 2026 [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Continue to oscillate and consolidate, waiting for further information guidance. The market is affected by both macro and industrial factors. Macro factors include the US government "shutdown", expectations of Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Industrial factors involve the suspension of US soybean data updates, expectations of lower US soybean yields, increased expected production of Brazilian new - season soybeans, and the inventory and export situations of palm oil [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate. The market lacks upward momentum due to factors such as the expected accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the suspension of US soybean data updates, and the smooth progress of Brazilian soybean planting [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **View**: Double meals are oscillating at a low level, and selling put options can be attempted. Internationally, US soybean production and exports are affected by policies, and Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly. Domestically, short - term oil mill operations are increasing, and downstream inventory levels are not low. In the medium - term, Sino - US trade relations and downstream replenishment after seasonal destocking need to be monitored. In the long - term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a possible small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate. The market should pay attention to the support level around 2850 - 2900, as well as weather and Sino - US trade trends. Selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [5]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: There is a temporary shortage at ports, leading to a continuous rebound in futures and spot prices. Short - term price increases are due to factors such as bad weather, farmers' reluctance to sell, port shortages, and state - owned reserve purchases. However, the selling pressure has not been fully released, and the market is expected to be oscillating weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. If prices rebound slightly due to recent weather disturbances and inventory shortages, short - selling opportunities can be considered. In the long - term, the expectation of tight annual supply supports the idea of low - buying in the far - month contracts [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Second - fattening replenishment has diverted part of the supply pressure, leading to a rebound in hog futures and spot prices. In the short - term, consumption is in the off - season, and supply is abundant. In the medium - term, the high - level production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 will lead to an increase in hog slaughter in the fourth quarter. In the long - term, sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction, and supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. Near - month contracts are under supply pressure, while far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The hog industry presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention can be paid to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [2][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Return to the oscillating bottom - grinding trend. The recent divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber is due to factors such as the impact of state - reserve sales on RU and the low import volume and limited warehouse receipts of NR. The raw material price of cup rubber is relatively firm, and there are still some weather disturbances in the producing areas. The demand for tires in the fourth quarter is expected to decline [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Due to high macro uncertainty, if the overall commodity performance is poor, rubber prices are expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom [10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market performance is dull, with narrow - range oscillations. High production this year has been a major pressure on the market. Although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than that of production, resulting in high social inventory. The price of butadiene, the raw material, has been fluctuating [11]. - **Outlook**: With high fundamental pressure and a lack of improvement in the raw material end, the market is expected to continue to oscillate and grind the bottom, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The purchase price has increased, leading to a rebound in cotton prices. The expected cotton production in Xinjiang has been adjusted downward, and the firm purchase price of seed cotton has provided cost - side support. In the short - term, the downward driving force of Zhengzhou cotton has weakened, and there is a demand for a rebound [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating within a short - term range, with prices slightly stronger this week. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, and upstream enterprises are advised to hedge actively when prices are high [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are oscillating at a low level, with weak supply and demand. In the medium - and long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, and sugar prices are in a bearish pattern. In the short - term, Brazilian sugar production has passed its peak, but exports have increased, and domestic sales and inventory situations are not optimistic [13]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly as a whole, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [13]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Spot trading is light, and pulp prices are running at a low level. After the National Day, pulp futures have shown a bottom - oscillating trend. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, and the market is concerned about the high ratio of virtual to real pulp and the concentrated cancellation at the end of the year. However, the game sentiment for the 01 contract has weakened. In general, the pulp market is difficult to rise significantly [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The market is dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand conditions, and the weakness of pulp futures is difficult to reverse [14][15]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: With the approaching of tenders, offset paper prices may stabilize. The spot price center of offset paper remains stable, but the market is not active. The cost support is average, and the upcoming tenders have a pessimistic market expectation. Although the supply pressure has been alleviated to some extent, the increase in new production capacity in South China may restrict paper prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. There is a possibility of a slight decline in spot prices in the short - term [16]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Freight rates have increased, leading to the relatively strong operation of logs. The increase in port fees has raised the cost of some ships, affecting the price of logs. The market has been running weakly recently due to factors such as the negative impact of domestic timber delivery in Chongqing and the failure of the peak - season expectation. The inventory level is not low, and the demand in the real - estate market is weak [19]. - **Outlook**: In the next few weeks, due to the disturbance of increased port - fee costs, attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the progress of foreign merchants' replacement of involved ships and the risk of price decline after the relaxation of Sino - US policies [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, precious metal prices may enter a shock adjustment phase, and when gold and silver prices fall below the 5 - day moving average, it can be regarded as a reference for phased profit - taking. In the long run, the contraction of the US dollar credit will drive up the value of physical currency, and the price centers of gold and silver will continue to move upward. The long - term bull market of gold has not reversed, and the silver price center is expected to follow the long - term upward trend of gold [1][3]. - The expected trading range for London gold spot this week is [3900, 4400] US dollars per ounce, and for London silver spot, it is [48, 55] US dollars per ounce [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Key Information - The Bank of Japan may slightly raise its economic growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 at its October policy meeting and maintain the view that the economy is moving towards a mild recovery. Bank of Japan official Takada So said it is necessary to further adjust monetary easing policies, the inflation target has basically been achieved, concerns about the impact of tariffs have eased, attention must be paid to the risk of inflation exceeding expectations in Japan, the process of reducing bond purchases must be cautious and time - consuming, the US economy is unlikely to experience a significant recession, and now is the best time to raise interest rates [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order on October 17 (local time), imposing a new 25% tariff on imported medium - and heavy - duty trucks and parts starting from November 1, and will also impose a 10% tariff on imported passenger cars [2]. - White House economic advisor Hassett said that if the government shutdown does not end, the White House will consider taking stronger measures [2]. 2. Price Logic - On Monday during the Asian trading session, precious metals fluctuated. Before the opening of the domestic night session, the prices of gold and silver in the overseas market rose slightly, but immediately fell back after the opening of the domestic night trading session, and the domestic market was weaker than the overseas market. After the price volatility in the overseas and domestic markets significantly increased, both COMEX and domestic exchanges increased margin requirements and issued risk warnings, indicating a further over - heating risk in the market [1][3]. - In the short term, the positive factors are gradually being digested. Positive signals from China - US trade negotiations have reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Non - farm and inflation data are to be released this week, which may end the trading logic of "no news is good news" after the National Day. The silver lease rate has declined from its peak, and the overseas spot situation has been alleviated temporarily [3]. - In the long term, debt over - issuance and anti - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the US dollar credit. Gold, as a currency beyond sovereignty, is still the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks. The trend of global central banks' gold purchases remains unchanged, and the long - term bull market of gold has not reversed. The silver trend is still consistent with that of gold, and the value loosening of credit currency has a spill - over effect on physical currency, so the silver price center is expected to follow the long - term upward trend of gold [3]. 3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 20, 2025 is presented, including the characteristic index and the sector index. The commodity index is 2231.41, down 0.06%; the commodity 20 index is 2533.64, down 0.15%; the industrial products index is 2183.97, up 0.37%. For the precious metals index on October 20, 2025, the current value is 3394.67, with a daily decline of 3.31%, a 5 - day increase of 2.88%, a 1 - month increase of 16.11%, and a year - to - date increase of 53.44% [43][44][46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The A-share market does not have a basis for continuous adjustment, and the trend is bullish. It is recommended to hold a dumbbell structure during the volatile period. The option side should focus on selling options to increase income, and the short-term bond market remains cautious [1][2][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views a. Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the equity market opened higher and then fluctuated. The easing of trade frictions boosted market sentiment, but there are still variables. The trading volume remained low, with a full-day turnover of 1.75 trillion yuan, and the futures market showed a trend of reducing positions. Defensive stocks led the rise, indicating a conservative sentiment among funds. In the future, the impact of trade events on A-shares will decrease. It is recommended to hold a dumbbell structure, allocating dividend + IM long positions [1][6]. b. Stock Index Options - The overall market turnover of each option variety decreased by 25.57%, and the liquidity fell below 10 billion again. The implied volatility of options decreased by an average of 1.65%, and the sentiment indicator did not form a unilateral trend, indicating a slow - fluctuating market. It is recommended to focus on selling options to increase income [1][6][7]. c. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The decline was due to the possible weakening of the tariff war expectation and the strong performance of the stock market. The economic data in September and the third quarter were in line with expectations, having limited impact on the bond market. In the short term, the bond market may be greatly affected by policy factors and should remain cautious. It is recommended to adopt a trend strategy of being cautiously volatile, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, basis widening, and the curve may remain steep [2][7][9]. 2. Economic Calendar - On October 20, 2025, China announced a series of economic data, including the unchanged LPR rates, a decline in the year - to - date growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment in September, an increase in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in September, and the unchanged year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail总额. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8% [10]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will expand the scope of tradable varieties for qualified overseas investors from the night session on October 28, 2025. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held on the 20th. China's economy grew by 5.2% in the first three quarters, faster than the same period last year. IBM and Groq established a strategic partnership [11][12]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific data summaries provided in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6][7][8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 20, 2025, the main economic indicators for September were announced. Data in real estate, infrastructure, and other fields related to black building materials remained poor. The prices of leading sector varieties dropped from their intraday highs and remained under pressure at night. The demand side of the industry continued to be weak. With the "15th Five - Year Plan" meeting underway, the market still expects policy benefits to boost confidence [1][2] - Entering late October, the traditional peak season is ending, and with tariff disturbances, the demand side is unlikely to perform well. Although high molten iron still supports the furnace charge in the short term, the market's negative feedback expectation strengthens as the peak season ends. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the "15th Five - Year Plan" meeting releasing sector benefits [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments rebounded slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped from a high level. The demand side saw a slight decline in the average daily output of sample molten iron and the steel mill profitability rate, but molten iron remained at a high level. Port inventories continued to accumulate. The fundamentals of iron ore weakened marginally, but the overall pressure was not prominent. Policy expectations may cause fluctuations, and steel demand improved slightly. The future of Sino - US trade relations is uncertain, so short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume at steel mills decreased, and the electric furnace profit improved slightly. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no obvious contradictions. With the current pressure on finished product prices and poor electric furnace profits, short - term prices are expected to follow finished products [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The short - term supply and demand of coke remained tight. With rising costs, the second price increase was initiated, but steel prices were still weak. The price increase needs time to be implemented, and coke prices are expected to oscillate [2][11][13] - **Coking Coal**: Supply disturbances continued, and the production increment space of coal mines was limited. With low inventories, the fundamentals were healthy. Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate [2][11][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term high costs, peak demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still room for the price center to decline in the future [3][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term peak demand season, policy expectations, and firm costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on prices [3][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are weak. After the negative feedback between futures and spot, short - term prices show an oscillating and weakening trend. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and prices are expected to oscillate downward [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - changes and oscillate widely. In the long run, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [3][14] 3.5 Steel - The fundamentals of steel still have contradictions. After the National Day, the demand for five major steel products recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory level is still moderately high. With the domestic important meeting this week, attention should be paid to policy disturbances, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On October 20, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity 20 index was 2533.64, down 0.15%; the industrial products index was 2183.97, up 0.37%. The steel industry chain index was 1976.21, up 0.55% on the day, up 0.13% in the past 5 days, down 1.65% in the past month, and down 6.26% since the beginning of the year [102][104]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On October 20, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell; commodities showed mixed performances, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [9][12] - The industry presents a pattern of "weak current reality + strong future expectations" for live hogs in the fourth quarter, and the cycle is still in a downward phase in the short term, but supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 if production reduction is implemented [17][18][19] - Coking coal fundamentals remain relatively sound, with short - term support on the futures market, but there is a downside risk if important meetings fail to meet expectations [23][24][27] - Silver entered a correction phase, and long - position holders are advised to take profits in stages, while the central level of silver prices is expected to move upward in the long run [31][32] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On October 20, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell. Commodities showed mixed performances, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [9] - Among China's commodity futures, the top three gainers are live hog (up 2.9% with open interest down 4.1% month - on - month), coking coal (up 2.7% with open interest up 2.0% month - on - month), and apple (up 2.3% with open interest up 11.1% month - on - month). The top three decliners are silver (down 4.0% with open interest down 8.2% month - on - month), poly - silicon (down 3.7% with open interest down 16.7% month - on - month), and glass (down 2.4% with open interest up 4.2% month - on - month) [10][11][12] - Among China's financial futures, equity indices rose, with IC increasing by 0.6%. CGB futures fell, among which TL decreased by 0.4% [12] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Live Hog - On October 20, live hog increased by 2.9% to 12155 yuan/ton. The industry presents a pattern of "weak current reality + strong future expectations" in the fourth quarter [17][20] - In the short term, consumption is in the off - season, monthly slaughter volume increases, and the average weight of live hog remains high. The supply - demand relationship is loose, and the cycle is still in a downward phase. In the long term, if the anti - involution policy to reduce the number of sows by 1 million head is implemented, supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [18][19][20] 1.2.2 Coking Coal - On October 20, coking coal increased by 2.7% to 1216 yuan/ton. Due to frequent coal mine accidents and production inspections, there is limited room for further growth in coal mine production [23][27] - The fundamentals are relatively sound, with short - term support on the futures market, but there is a risk of decline if important meetings fail to meet expectations [24][27] - On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi resumed normal operations, while supply in Inner Mongolia Wuhai is still restricted. Import at Ganqimaodu Port decreased. On the demand side, coke output declined month - on - month, but short - term rigid demand provides support, and overall inventories remain at a low level [25][26][27] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Silver - On October 20, silver decreased by 4.0% to 11742 yuan/kg. Key data disclosure and events such as U.S. non - farm payrolls, inflation, retail data, U.S. government shutdown, and China - U.S. trade negotiations should be focused on [30][32] - With the transfer of silver inventories from New York to London, the spot supply tightness in LBMA has eased. Silver entered a correction phase, and long - position holders are advised to take profits in stages. In the long term, the central level of silver prices is expected to move upward [31][32] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The fourth plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee began in Beijing on the morning of October 20 [36][38][39] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 101.5036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. In the third quarter, GDP was 35.4500 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [36][38][39] - In September 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.1971 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, it was 36.5877 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.5% [38][39] - In September 2025, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size actually increased by 6.5% year - on - year. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% [38][39] - From January to September 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37.1535 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed asset investment fell by 3.1% year - on - year [38][39] 2.2 Industry News - Starting from the night trading session on October 28, 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange will expand the investment scope of Qualified Foreign Investors to LLDPE, PVC, PP Monthly Average Price Futures Contracts [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas macro - aspect, the current volatility level is in a low - lying stage, and the "bad news is good news" logic may be nearing its end. The internal fluctuation energy in the US is being accumulated and may rise periodically. In the domestic macro - aspect, the September economic and financial data showed relative resilience, and policy expectations were further strengthened, which may support low - valued domestic assets in the fourth quarter. - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets. Overseas, the catalytic elasticity of government shutdown and data vacuum on interest - rate cut expectations has decreased, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline. In China, policy changes may lead to a rebound in low - valued domestic commodity assets [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4506.8 with a daily increase of 0.48%, the SSE 50 futures at 2970.4 with a daily increase of 0.25%, the CSI 500 futures at 6909.2 with a daily increase of 0.67%, and the CSI 1000 futures at 7059.2 with a daily increase of 1.15%. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.334 with a daily decrease of 0.04%, the 5 - year at 105.655 with a daily decrease of 0.12%, the 10 - year at 108.11 with a daily decrease of 0.07%, and the 30 - year at 115.3 with a daily decrease of 0.49%. - **Foreign Exchange**: The central parity rate of the US dollar was 7.0973, up 24 pips. - **Interest Rates**: The 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.82%, down 1.6 bp, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, up 3 bp [4]. 3.2 Popular Industry - **Electronics**: The index was 11821, with a daily increase of 2.01% and an annual increase of 51.00%. - **Power Equipment and New Energy**: The index was 11404, with a daily increase of 2.68% and an annual increase of 35.68%. - **Consumer Services**: The index was 6859, with a daily increase of 0.08% and an annual increase of 7.30% [4]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 57.25, up 0.53% daily; ICE Brent crude oil at 61.34, up 0.52% daily. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 4267.9, down 1.76% daily; COMEX silver at 50.625, down 5.25% daily. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper closed at 2778.5, down 0.63% daily; LME zinc at 2942.5, down 0.86% daily [4]. 3.4 Domestic Main Commodities - **Gold**: The price was 970.32, down 2.95% daily and up 57.11% annually. - **Silver**: The price was 11742, up 7.55% daily and up 15.74% annually. - **Coke**: The price was 2.03% higher daily and 5.36% higher weekly [5]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Finance**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles; stock index options are expected to fluctuate; treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September [8]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel products, iron ore, coke, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors for each [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most base metals are expected to fluctuate, waiting for the clarity of macro - policies [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to decline or fluctuate, affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies [10]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show a differentiated trend, with most expected to fluctuate, and some like sugar and pulp expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In the week ending October 19th, the global on - land crude oil inventory decreased slightly, while the floating storage inventory reached the highest level of the year. The full - scope (including in - transit) inventory declined from a high level. Recently, the retroactive adjustment range of in - transit cargoes has been relatively large, and overall, inventory pressure is still evident. Regionally, inventories in China and Russia decreased, while those in India, Europe, and the Middle East increased [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog - **Global Crude Oil Inventory**: The on - land inventory decreased slightly, the floating storage inventory hit a yearly high, and the full - scope inventory dropped from a high. There were large retroactive adjustments for in - transit cargoes, and inventory pressure remained [1]. - **Regional Inventory Changes**: In China and Russia, inventories decreased; in India, Europe, and the Middle East, inventories increased [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 42nd week of 2025, presenting the issuance, net financing scale, and progress of various types of bonds as of October 19, 2025, along with next - week's plans [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Bond Type 3.1 Special Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 2.01 billion yuan, a 2.01 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. As of 10/19, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 84.0%. Next week, 11.24 billion yuan is planned to be issued [4]. - As of 10/19, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 2.01 billion yuan [5]. 3.2 General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 0 yuan, with no change from the previous week. As of 10/19, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0%. Next week, 0.13 billion yuan is planned to be issued [6]. - As of 10/19, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 0 yuan [5]. 3.3 Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was - 1.98 billion yuan, a 0.48 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. As of 10/19, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 84.0%. Next week, the planned net financing is 16.58 billion yuan [7]. 3.4 Government Bonds (Treasury Bonds + Local Bonds) - As of 10/19, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 83.8%. This week, the government bond net financing was - 0.32 billion yuan, a 16.29 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 13.33 billion yuan [11]. 3.5 Treasury Bonds - As of 10/19, the treasury bond net financing progress was 83.6%. This week, the treasury bond net financing scale was 1.66 billion yuan, a 16.77 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is - 3.25 billion yuan [17][18].