Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk appetite has cooled down. In the stock index futures market, leveraged funds are crowded, leading to early profit - taking. In the stock index options market, the bearish side shows strong gaming behavior. In the treasury bond futures market, the bond yield curve has steepened [1]. - For stock index futures, the current pull - back is defined as a shock in a bull market, and the correction is a good opportunity to add positions. For stock index options, it is recommended to use bull spread strategies. For treasury bond futures, short - term bullish sentiment may recover, but medium - term risk preference improvement may disturb bonds, and long - end arbitrage and curve - steepening opportunities can be focused on [9][10][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: Leveraged funds are crowded, leading to early profit - taking. The current pull - back is a shock in a bull market, and the correction is a good opportunity to add positions. The outlook is oscillating with a slight upward trend [9]. - **Logic**: On Wednesday, the equity market rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.76%, the largest single - day decline since the tariff increase in early April, closing barely above 3800 points. "Fixed - income plus" investors redeemed convertible bond funds due to fear of high prices, causing a 2.65% drop in the convertible bond ETF and a record - high trading volume of 21.1 billion yuan. Leveraged funds are in a crowded state, and market risk appetite is likely to cool down. However, the fear - hedging sentiment is not strong, and the futures discount has not expanded abnormally, indicating that it is mainly individual stock profit - taking. Signals of the end of the bull market have not appeared, and the transfer of household deposits is still in progress [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Allocate long positions in IM [9]. Stock Index Options - **Viewpoint**: The bearish side shows strong gaming behavior. The market outlook is oscillating [10]. - **Logic**: The underlying market rebounded in the morning and then dived in the afternoon. Only the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed up. The option market turnover was 18.528 billion yuan, a 30% increase from the previous trading day. The overall bearish trading volume proportion increased marginally, and the market logic tends to bet on a decline. The position PCR did not drop significantly, and the Shanghai 500 ETF even reached a new high. However, the skewness of the 500 ETF increased significantly, indicating that some call options are also betting on the persistence of the overnight decline. The volatility of some small - scale varieties was greatly affected by intraday trading, while other varieties mainly oscillated at a high level, and the inflection point of the downward volatility has not appeared [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Use bull spread strategies [10]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: The bond yield curve has steepened. The short - term bullish sentiment may recover, but the medium - term risk preference improvement may disturb bonds. The market outlook is oscillating [12]. - **Logic**: The treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The short - end bond yields performed better than the long - end, and the curve steepened. The central bank's net withdrawal of 23.61 billion yuan in the open - market operation did not tighten the inter - bank liquidity, which supported the short - end bonds. The stock - bond seesaw effect was not obvious. The upcoming policies to expand service consumption and promote service exports may still disturb the long - end bonds [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, be cautiously oscillating. For hedging strategies, the cost of short - hedging is high, and long - side alternatives can be considered. For basis strategies, focus on the long - end basis convergence. For curve strategies, focus on curve - steepening opportunities [12]. 2. Economic Calendar - The economic data released this week includes the U.S. new home sales in July, the FHFA housing price index in June, the S&P/CS housing price index in 20 major U.S. cities in June, China's industrial enterprise profits in July, the euro - zone economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index in August, and the U.S. initial and continuing jobless claims in August [13]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - **Unified Market Construction**: On August 26, a development planning symposium of the Shanghai market supervision system was held, aiming to build a fair market environment, support the construction of the Yangtze River Delta unified market pilot area, and the international science and technology innovation center [14]. - **Overseas Tourist Tax - Free Shopping**: Starting from September 1, 2025, Jilin Province will implement the overseas tourist tax - free shopping policy [14]. - **Urban Village Renovation**: The Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating urban village renovation, proposing multiple renovation methods [15]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: In July, the operating income of large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year, and the profit decline narrowed. The gross profit turned from a decline in June to an increase in July [15]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions that there are sections for monitoring stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific data content is provided [16][20][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and fats: In the near term, it may continue to fluctuate and adjust, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium term [5] - Protein meal: The market continues the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas, with domestic spot stronger than the futures [1][6][7] - Corn and starch: In the short term, the price fluctuates weakly; there is still a downward expectation during the new crop's concentrated listing period; in the long term, the market supports the idea of low - level absorption in the far - month [7][8] - Pigs: The fundamentals remain loose, with spot and near - month contracts expected to remain weak, and far - month contracts supported by supply - side capacity reduction expectations [9] - Natural rubber: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [11] - Synthetic rubber: The futures may fluctuate strongly in the short term [12] - Cotton: From now to early October, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; it may be under pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [13] - Sugar: In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the short term, it runs in the range of 5550 - 5750 yuan/ton [15] - Pulp: The futures are expected to fluctuate [16] - Logs: The 09 contract has pressure, dragging down far - month contracts [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows different trends. Some products are affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, and policies, resulting in fluctuations in prices. The report provides investment suggestions based on the analysis of various factors of different products [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as US monetary policy, crude oil, and soybean weather, domestic and foreign oil and fat markets fluctuate. The export and production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory and import of domestic oils also have an impact on the market [5] - **Outlook**: In the near term, it may continue to fluctuate and adjust; in the medium term, there is a high probability of continuing to strengthen [5] 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the excellent rate of US soybeans has rebounded, and Brazilian soybean exports have passed the peak. Domestically, the state reserve will auction soybeans, and the spot is stronger than the futures. The supply gap risk before December has weakened, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [1][7] - **Outlook**: The market continues the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas. It is recommended that oil mills sell hedging on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price on dips [1][7] 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is stable with a slight decline. The supply side inventory is digested, and the demand side acceptance of high - priced grain is low. The new crop's production situation is normal, and the supply is expected to increase [7][8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price fluctuates weakly; in the long term, the market supports the far - month low - level absorption idea [7][8] 3.1.4 Pigs - **Logic**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the medium - term supply is expected to increase. The demand may increase with the cooling weather, and the "anti - involution" policy is being promoted [9] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals remain loose, with spot and near - month contracts expected to remain weak, and far - month contracts supported by supply - side capacity reduction expectations [9] 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The price follows the financial market down. The supply and demand side is in the seasonal rising period, with many speculation themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [11] - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [11] 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The futures follow the natural rubber down. The raw material butadiene is short - term tight, providing cost support [12] - **Outlook**: The short - term futures may fluctuate strongly [12] 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The commercial inventory is low, the downstream demand is improving, and the expected purchase price of ginned cotton by upstream ginning mills is increasing [13] - **Outlook**: From now to early October, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; it may be under pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [13] 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: Internationally, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. Domestically, the import volume is increasing [15] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the short term, it runs in the range of 5550 - 5750 yuan/ton [15] 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The futures continue to decline, mainly due to the delivery pressure of bleached softwood kraft pulp. The supply and demand change is not significant, and the short - term weakness continues [16] - **Outlook**: The futures are expected to fluctuate [16] 3.1.10 Logs - **Logic**: The 09 contract has delivery pressure, dragging down far - month contracts. The short - term fundamentals have improved marginally, but there are still delivery product pressures [17] - **Outlook**: The 09 contract has pressure, dragging down far - month contracts [17] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report monitors data of various varieties including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [20][38][51] 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include "strong", "fluctuating strongly", "fluctuating", "fluctuating weakly", "weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and the standard deviation defined as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [167] 3.4 Commodity Index - On August 27, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined. The agricultural product index also declined, with a year - to - date increase of 1.84% [169][171]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend. The dovish expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25BP in September is likely to dominate the market. The research team is optimistic about the medium - term trend of gold but warns that the recovery expectation from the strong performance of emerging - market equities may suppress its elasticity. The Fed is expected to restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, which is favorable for the gold trend. The current weak economic reality has not reversed, and the "interest - rate cut + fundamental downturn" stagflation - like combination is more beneficial to gold. If the situation changes to an "interest - rate cut + recovery" combination, silver will benefit more [2][4][7]. 3) Summary by Related Content Key Information - Trump's executive order to double India's tariffs to 50% took effect. Starting from 00:01 on the 27th Eastern Time, the US imposed an additional 25% ad - valorem tariff on imported Indian goods, causing many US customers to cancel orders. - The Trump administration is considering exerting greater influence on the 12 regional reserve banks of the Fed. Trump claims to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from office, and if approved by the court, he will have the opportunity to control a majority of seats on the seven - member Fed Board of Governors. - Fed's Williams is quite optimistic about the economic situation, stating that the Fed may still maintain a certain degree of restrictiveness after interest - rate cuts, and each meeting is full of uncertainties [3]. Price Logic - On Wednesday, gold continued its moderately strong and volatile trend, while silver weakened slightly. Concerns about the Fed's independence are intensifying, and the doubling of US - India tariffs has increased the long - term stagflation expectation in the US. The late - session decline of the domestic equity market has suppressed silver prices in the short term. Before the release of next week's non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a 25BP interest - rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable [2][4]. Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is expected to be between 3300 and 3500, and for spot London silver, it is expected to be between 36 and 40 [7]. Index Data - On August 27, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity was 2211.28, down 0.50%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2459.50, down 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2244.49, down 0.59%. The precious metals index was 2729.16, with a daily decline of 0.16%, a 5 - day increase of 1.02%, a 1 - month increase of 1.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 23.36% [46][48].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in a "volatile" state, with some being "volatile and weak" or having specific support and resistance levels for trading[4]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical industry will continue to be volatile. The conflict in Ukraine has affected Russia's crude oil supply and refinery production, which will provide some short - term support to the oil product market. The chemical sector is influenced by raw materials, and the decline of chemical products will not exceed that of the raw material end. Asphalt has a relatively healthy pattern[2][3]. - Different products have different trends: crude oil is expected to be volatile and weak; asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil follow the trend of crude oil; methanol, urea, etc. have their own specific trends based on supply, demand, and inventory factors[4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The decline in refinery开工率 and the potential increase in crude oil inventory are concerns. Pay attention to short - term disturbances from the Russia - Ukraine negotiation[10]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt futures prices are volatile and falling. The supply tension has eased, and demand remains unoptimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline[11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. The increase in inventory and the weakening of some demand factors lead to the decline[12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It also follows the decline of crude oil. Facing factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the increase in supply, it is expected to maintain low - valuation operation[13]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures price is volatile and weak. Although there are some policy - related boosts, the actual impact is limited. There may be opportunities to go long in the far - month contract[24][25]. - **Urea**: Some enterprises are under maintenance and shutdown, and the market is in weak consolidation. Wait for positive expectations, and pay attention to actual demand and the new Indian tender[25][26]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: With low inventory, price support is strong. The delay in the restart of near - ocean devices and the expected increase in terminal demand provide support[16][17][19]. - **PX**: Affected by cost, after the seasonal improvement in demand, the bottom support is strong. It is expected to oscillate within a range and wait for the stabilization of oil prices[14]. - **PTA**: Due to insufficient cost support, the polyester sales atmosphere cools down. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4700 - 5000[14]. - **Short - Fiber**: After the atmosphere cools down, sales decline, and prices are passively adjusted. It will oscillate in the short term and follow the trend of raw materials[20][21]. - **Bottle - Chip**: As the cost declines, prices are passively adjusted. It is expected to oscillate and follow the trend of raw materials[21][22]. - **PP**: With the weakening of macro - support, it oscillates and declines. Although there are some short - term news stimuli, the actual impact is limited[29][30]. - **Propylene (PL)**: It follows the oscillation of PP in the short term. The processing fee is a key concern[30][34]. - **Plastic**: Due to the retracement of macro - sentiment, it oscillates in the short term. The supply pressure persists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream demand in the peak season[28][29]. - **Pure Benzene**: With the decline of commodity sentiment and high inventory in the industry chain, it returns to a weak state[14]. - **Styrene**: With the decline of commodity sentiment and prominent inventory pressure, it resumes falling. Although there are short - term emotional supports, the inventory pressure limits the increase[15][16]. - **PVC**: As market sentiment weakens, it operates weakly. The fundamentals are under pressure, and it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation[35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot rebound slows down, and the market is on the sidelines for the moment. In the short term, the spot increase slows down, and in the long term, it is recommended to buy on dips[35][36]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.53, change: 0.01), Dubai (M1 - M2: 1.53, change: 0.12), etc.[37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has its own basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, asphalt (basis: 49, change: 32, warehouse receipts: 71500)[38]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also specific values and changes in inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 95, change: 44), 1 - month TA - EG (343, change: - 37)[39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 27, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose, and commodity futures generally declined, with polysilicon, coking coal, crude oil, and coke leading the drop [10][12] - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption in September [34][35] - From January to July, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide decreased by 1.7% year-on-year [34][35] - In the first seven months of this year, Hong Kong's IPO fundraising surged by over 610% year-on-year to HK$128 billion [36] - From August 14 to 20, allocative foreign capital turned to a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan, indicating an improvement in the attractiveness of RMB assets [36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On August 27, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; commodity futures generally declined, with polysilicon, coking coal, crude oil, and coke leading the decline [10][12] - The top three gainers were apple (up 1.5% with a 23.5% month-on-month increase in open interest), nickel (up 1.2% with a 9.5% month-on-month decrease in open interest), and tin (up 0.8% with a 73.8% month-on-month increase in open interest) [10][12] - The top three decliners were polysilicon (down 4.9% with a 12.4% month-on-month increase in open interest), coking coal (down 3.9% with a 1.0% month-on-month increase in open interest), and crude oil (down 3.6% with a 6.5% month-on-month increase in open interest) [11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Tin - On August 27, tin increased by 0.8% to 271,790 yuan/ton. Under the current tightened mining supply, tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and their volatility may rise [16][20] - The domestic mining end remains tight, and the official resumption of production in Wa State does not change the tight situation. In Indonesia, refined tin exports declined in July, and African tin ore production and export are unstable [17][20] - Smelters face a shortage of raw materials, with low processing fees and a low smelting operating rate. Tin terminal demand has weakened, and inventory destocking is difficult [18][19][20] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Crude Oil - On August 27, crude oil decreased by 3.6% to 479.7 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to short-term disturbances from the Russia-Ukraine issue [23][25] - API data shows a small inventory draw in the US. OPEC+ is accelerating supply release, US production is high, and non-US and non-OPEC+ output is growing steadily, leading to persistent supply pressure [24][25] - The high operating rates of Chinese and US refineries may decline due to the accumulation of refined oil inventories, and oil price rebounds remain weak [24][25] 3.1.3.2 Coking Coal - On August 27, coking coal decreased by 3.9% to 1,154 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions persist, and it is difficult to increase supply before the military parade. The market still has support due to the eighth round of coke price increases [28][31][32] - Futures market sentiment has declined, and the market has pulled back. Some coal mines have resumed production, but output is still restricted. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 trucks [29][32] - The eighth round of coke price increases has started, with regional differentiation. Coking production is restricted in some areas, and short-term rigid demand for coking coal has declined slightly. Downstream enterprises are purchasing on demand, and some coal mines have seen inventory accumulation [30][32] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption in September, aiming to optimize service supply and stimulate new growth in service consumption [34][35] - From January to July, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide were 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profits of these enterprises decreased by 1.5% year-on-year [34][35] 3.2.2 Industry News - In the first seven months of this year, there were 51 IPOs in Hong Kong, and the fundraising amount surged by over 610% year-on-year to HK$128 billion. As of the end of July, over 220 IPO applications were under review [36] - From August 14 to 20, allocative foreign capital turned to a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan, with passive allocative foreign capital having a net inflow of 6.84 billion yuan and active allocative foreign capital having a net inflow of 140 million yuan, indicating an improvement in the attractiveness of RMB assets [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market showed a widespread decline, with the stock index sector generally falling [1]. - Overseas, after the global central bank summit, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has further strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary situation is expected to become looser, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [6]. - In the short term, the high - spirited market sentiment in the domestic market may continue as it approaches important events in early September. After these events, the domestic market may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamental factors may play a more important role in pricing assets, especially short - duration commodity assets. The current differentiation between capital and fundamental performance may lead to increased short - term market volatility [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short term, but there are still employment and inflation pressures in the medium term. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts is strengthening. The consumer confidence in the US deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permits continued to decline [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The profits of Chinese industrial enterprises have improved, and Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline in the profits of national large - scale industrial enterprises narrowed to - 1.7% from - 1.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 2.3%. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand such as consumption and investment is still at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the short term, the domestic market may maintain high - spirited sentiment until after important events in early September. Then, the fundamental factors may have a greater impact on asset pricing. Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary situation is expected to become looser. The current market may face increased short - term volatility [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is a rush to take profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the decline in incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: There is strong betting on the put side. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve is steepening. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September is expanding, which is beneficial to prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the rate of freight rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The real - world support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - making output [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Market sentiment has weakened, and the fundamentals have changed little. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic iron - making production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Supply is restricted in some regions, and the eighth round of price increases is emerging. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has declined, and the futures price has回调 significantly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The black chain is showing a weak trend, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The sector is in a downward adjustment, and the futures price is weakly volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to cost prices and foreign market quotes [7]. - **Glass**: The commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has decreased in the short term, while rigid demand remains stable. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to soda ash inventory [7]. - **Copper**: The suspension of tariffs between China and the US has been extended, and the copper price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [7]. - **Alumina and Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure due to weak and stable spot prices and increasing warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is oscillating at a high level with a slight increase in social inventory. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum production resumption, extreme sector trends, macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has oscillated and declined due to the fall in black - series prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption situation is still unclear, and the lead price has oscillated and declined. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions, slowdown in battery exports, unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions, slowdown in battery exports, unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price has回调. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected increases in demand [7]. - **Tin**: The raw material supply is still tight, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The coal price is fluctuating, and the silicon price is continuously volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The multi - empty game continues, and the price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to OPEC + production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price has oscillated and declined due to the fall in crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil price has risen and then fallen. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has followed the crude oil price and oscillated downward. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory has accumulated, but short - term petrochemical news has provided a boost. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to macro - energy factors and upstream and downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and the export - driven effect is less than expected. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The low inventory level coincides with the peak - season expectation, providing strong support for the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [9]. - **PX**: The price is driven by emotional factors and the peak - season effect. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, unexpected macro - changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [9]. - **PTA**: Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction from August to October. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, unexpected macro - changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device production cuts [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory has decreased, but the processing margin is under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders [9]. - **Propylene**: The price is mainly following the PP price in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic macro - factors [9]. - **PP**: The price is fluctuating due to news from Zhonghan Petrochemical, but the fundamental support is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - factors [9]. - **Plastic**: The plastic price has strengthened slightly due to news from the petrochemical industry. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - factors [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has been boosted, and the PVC price has weakly stabilized. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and short - term long positions have taken profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price is continuing to adjust in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the technical support below. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: The domestic market has declined due to state - reserve auctions, and the domestic market is weaker than the overseas market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and China - US and China - Canada trade disputes [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The decline in the spot price has slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather conditions [9]. - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. 3.2.6 Agriculture - **Rubber**: The rubber price has declined following the market atmosphere, with little change in its own fundamentals. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price has followed the natural rubber price and weakened. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [9]. - **Pulp**: The price has continued to decline, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: The low inventory level combined with improved demand provides strong support for the short - term cotton price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The supply pressure has increased marginally, and the sugar price has continued to decline. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to imports [9]. - **Logs**: The delivery pressure in the September contract is relatively large, dragging down the far - month contracts. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to shipment volume and dispatch volume [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - Specific varieties: iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all rated as "oscillation" [6][7][10][11][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black price is in a weak oscillation. Although the demand is weakly expected in the peak season, the cost supply is disturbed, and there is a driving force for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. The follow - up should focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. - After the decline of the glass futures and spot market sentiment, the supply is expected to be stable, and the short - term is expected to oscillate widely. The long - term price center will decline [13][14]. - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to the same period last year, with relatively stable total supply [2]. - Demand: The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter decreased significantly. There is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased this week, and the total inventory slightly declined [2]. - Outlook: The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - Supply: Production in some mines is restricted, and coal mine safety inspections are increasing. Although the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port remains high, overall, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [2]. - Demand: The eighth round of coke price increase is restarted, and the demand for coking coal has slightly declined in the short term. Downstream purchases on demand, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but there is no obvious inventory pressure [2]. - Outlook: Before the parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increase to be implemented, the futures market is still supported [11]. Coke - Supply: After the seventh - round price increase was fully implemented, the profits of coking enterprises recovered. As the parade approaches, the start - up of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production [10]. - Demand: Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but affected by the parade, the start - up of some steel mills in North China will also be restricted, and the demand is affected [10]. - Outlook: The game of the eighth - round price increase continues. Before the parade, the futures market is still supported, but the actual implementation is difficult [10]. 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - Supply: The production level has reached a high point this year, and the market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profits are good, but as the parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, and the short - term demand for manganese silicon is expected to decline [2]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited due to cost support, but the long - term price center may decline [16]. Ferrosilicon - Supply: Manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated, and production has gradually reached a high level [17]. - Demand: Steel production will decline slightly during the parade, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking will decline. The magnesium market has supply pressure and weak demand [17]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited, but the long - term price center is expected to decline [17][18]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable [2]. - Demand: The demand in the off - season has declined, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month. The inventory days of raw sheets have reached a high point this year, and the mid - stream and downstream lack the ability to replenish inventory [13]. - Outlook: The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price is expected to decline after returning to fundamental trading [13][14]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The long - term supply pressure still exists, and short - term production is affected. It is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future [15]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain stable, and the demand for light soda ash is flat, with weak downstream replenishment sentiment [15]. - Outlook: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [15]. 3.6 Steel - Supply: The production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. The supply of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little [6]. - Demand: The demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains at a high level, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down [6]. - Outlook: The short - term futures market is expected to oscillate widely, and the follow - up should focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [6]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Supply: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased week - on - week [8]. - Demand: The profit of electric furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process furnaces has slightly increased, and the total daily consumption has increased slightly [8]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [5] - **Protein Meal**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Bearish, expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly [12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly [13] - **Cotton**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and bearish when new cotton is listed [13] - **Sugar**: Bearish, expected to fluctuate weakly in the long term and fluctuate within a range in the short term [15] - **Pulp**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [18] - **Logs**: Bullish, recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and international trade. It provides short - and long - term outlooks and investment suggestions for each product, considering both domestic and international factors [5][7][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Due to technical pressure, US soybeans fell on Monday, and domestic oils continued to fluctuate. Macro factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise in crude oil prices, as well as industry factors like high soybean good - rate, uncertain export demand, and different supply - demand situations of different oils, affect the market. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, US soybean good - rate is high, Brazilian exports are peaking, and CFTC net short positions are decreasing. Domestically, spot is stronger than the futures. It is expected that the outer market will rise more than the inner market, and the basis may bottom out. Suggestions include selling hedges for oil mills and buying basis contracts for downstream enterprises [7] - **Corn/Starch**: The price trend is weak. Supply is gradually tightening, but the market expects a low probability of a supply gap. Demand is weak due to low profits in related industries. New - season corn production is normal, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and may attract long - positions in the long term [7][8] - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant in the short, medium, and long term, but there are policies to guide capacity reduction. Demand may increase with the cooling weather, and there was a 10,000 - ton reserve purchase. It is expected to fluctuate, with the spot and near - term contracts remaining weak and the far - term contracts supported by capacity - reduction expectations [9] - **Natural Rubber**: The price may be affected by weather speculation. It is in the seasonal rising period, and there are various positive factors. The short - term supply may decrease, and demand is rigid. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13] - **Cotton**: Supply is tight, and the impact of import quotas is limited. Demand is improving, and the expected purchase price of ginned cotton by ginners is rising. It is expected to fluctuate strongly until October and may decline when new cotton is listed [13][14] - **Sugar**: International production in Brazil is increasing, and exports are at a peak. Domestic imports are rising. Supply is increasing, but the short - term downside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the long term and within a range in the short term [15] - **Pulp**: The market has both positive and negative factors. The recovery of hardwood pulp trading and cost support are positive, while over - supply of paper and delivery pressure are negative. It is expected to fluctuate [18] - **Logs**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, with rising valuation and reduced supply pressure. However, there is delivery pressure. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips within the range of 790 - 840 [20] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - Data monitoring is carried out for various products such as oils and fats, corn, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [22][53][73] 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include categories such as strongly bullish, bullish with fluctuations, neutral with fluctuations, bearish with fluctuations, and strongly bearish, with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method provided [170] 3.4 Commodity Index - On August 26, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all declined. The agricultural products index also declined by 0.49% on that day, with different historical and recent period fluctuations [172][174]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - U.S. economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term, with monetary easing expectations supporting market risk appetite. Domestic economic fundamentals are slightly weaker on a quarterly basis, but it's still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target, and market risk appetite may also be supported. In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment, and external macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. With the approach of important events and economic slowdown pressure, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Powell's annual meeting speech was unexpectedly dovish at the global central bank summit, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. The current fundamental expectations have weakened slightly, with consumer confidence deteriorating in August and housing construction showing mixed trends [9]. - **Domestic Macro**: In China, on one hand, the probability of a significant downturn in external demand has decreased, while domestic demand, such as consumption and investment, is still at a reasonable level. On the other hand, the capital market remains loose. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies [9]. - **Asset View**: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment until after important events, when the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September has strengthened, and the macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. As important events approach and economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3.2 View Highlights - **Finance**: The stock market is trending upwards, and the linkage between stocks and bonds is weakening. Stock index futures and options are expected to rise with fluctuations, while treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Precious Metals**: The expectation of interest rate cuts in September is expanding, which is favorable for the prices of gold and silver, and they are expected to rise with fluctuations [10]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the rate of decline in freight rates for the European container shipping line, which is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Black Building Materials**: With the strengthening of the cost side, black building materials are rebounding from low levels. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. [10]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, but weakening demand also needs attention. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, and zinc is expected to decline with fluctuations [10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the weakening of coking coal has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some are expected to rise or fall with fluctuations, such as PX, PTA are expected to rise with fluctuations, while crude oil is expected to decline with fluctuations [12]. - **Agriculture**: The agricultural product market is oscillating at high levels, waiting for field inspection results. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to rise with fluctuations [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint - On August 26, equity indices fell, while CGB futures rose. Most commodity futures fell, with coking coal, coke, and silicon metal leading the declines. The report also covered macro news and industry news, as well as provided analysis of specific futures varieties [2][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On August 26, equity indices declined, and CGB futures increased. Most commodity futures dropped, with coking coal, coke, and silicon metal having the largest declines. The top three gainers were peanut kernel, log, and TSR 20, while the top three decliners were aluminium oxide, coking coal, and silicon metal [10][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Lead**: On August 26, lead increased by 0.5% to 16,930 yuan/ton. Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole pressured the US dollar, creating a relatively positive macro environment. Lead ingot demand has picked up, and supply - demand is expected to be slightly short this week. However, the incomplete recovery of the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has pressured lead prices. The cost support for secondary lead remains high, and lead prices are fluctuating [16][18]. - **Natural Rubber**: On August 26, it rose by 0.3% to 15,885 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment is decent, and fundamentals provide short - term support. The price is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias in the short term. The Fed rate - cut expectation rose last Friday, and there are self - driven speculative expectations. It is entering the seasonal upward period, and there are many speculative themes. Short - term shipments may decrease, demand is rigid, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has picked up. The increase in supply may be delayed due to expected heavy rainfall in production areas [23][25][26]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Aluminium Oxide**: On August 26, it decreased by 3.5% to 3,069 yuan/ton. Prices may fluctuate with a bearish bias, and the main strategy is to roll short positions when prices rise unilaterally. Smelters are profitable, and their operating capacity has rebounded to a high level. The upstream - downstream balance shows a surplus, the inventory accumulation trend is expanding, and fundamentals are weak. Warehouse receipts and warehousing have increased significantly, but be wary of disruptions at Guinean mines and new production capacity control concerns [31][33]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Trump threatened to impose about 200% tariffs on China over rare earth magnet supply. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has clarified its position on the tariff issue multiple times. The 13th session of the Standing Committee of the 14th CPPCC National Committee was held on August 26, with members speaking on "formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development". China has built the world's largest electric vehicle charging network during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, and the proportion of installed renewable energy power generation capacity has increased from 40% to about 60% [39][40][41]. 3.2.2 Industry News - As of the end of 2024, China's outward investment stock exceeded 3 trillion USD, ranking among the world's top three for 8 consecutive years, and its proportion in global outward investment increased to 7.2%. Since 2012, China's outward investment flow has ranked among the world's top three for 13 consecutive years, and China has established over 50,000 enterprises overseas, covering 190 countries and regions [42].