投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-10-16 流动性与避险⽀撑延续，⾦银⾼位震荡 伦敦⾦在欧洲时段⼀度刷新纪录⾼位⾄4220美元/盎司后回落⾄4200美元 附近震荡；伦敦银站稳52美元上⽅。美联储降息预期、贸易摩擦升级与地 缘⻛险交织，共同推升避险与配置需求。短线虽处超买区间，但波动率提 升更多体现情绪扩张⽽⾮趋势反转，中期多头逻辑仍稳固。 重点资讯： 1）鲍威尔在费城发表讲话，强调"不过度降息但或将停止缩表"， 平衡就业与通胀目标。市场解读为美联储将以"小步降息+暂停缩 表"的双轨方式应对流动性紧张。 2）中东局势再度升温。以色列对黎巴嫩南部实施空袭，真主党武装 回击导弹袭击北以色列，联合国呼吁各方克制；市场避险情绪显著升 温，推动金价延续高位运行。 4）特朗普威胁中止对中国部分农产品贸易并强化稀土出口限制，IMF 上调全球增速至3.2%但警示贸易战重燃风险。 价格逻辑： 黄金： 鲍威尔讲话被视为"有限降息+流动性维护"的政策信号，美 联储在降息与缩表之间寻求平衡，短期利率下行、美元维持弱势共同 强化黄金支撑。地缘冲突扩散加速避险资金流入，黄金短线超买但 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the energy and chemical products are rated as "oscillating weakly", including crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, etc. Some are rated as "oscillating", such as urea, PVC, and caustic soda [4][7][9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy and chemical sector continues to be in a weak pattern. The crude oil market is under pressure from fundamentals and macro - disturbances, and its price direction is downward, although the rhythm is affected by various factors. The bottom of the petrochemical industry is determined by crude oil, and due to factors such as over - supply and some varieties' capacity expansion, the chemical industry will maintain a weak trend [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Fed's hint of a possible October rate cut and the market's expectation of improved Sino - US relations led to a rebound in the US stock market and a significant rise in the Chinese A - share market on Wednesday. This slightly boosted the crude oil price, which had fallen to a five - month low. The reports from three major energy agencies show that the expected growth in global crude oil demand in 2025 is 700,000 barrels per day, which contradicts the large - scale production increases of OPEC + and some countries [2] 3.2 Sector Logic - Chemical products continue to be in a weak pattern. The measure of imposing port fees on each other's ships by China and the US has little impact on the supply - demand of varieties, only causing some disturbances in the trading process. The bottom of the petrochemical industry is determined by crude oil, and due to factors such as some varieties' good benefits and capacity expansion, the chemical industry will maintain a weak trend [3] 3.3 Variety Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Macro factors affect the rhythm, and the fundamentals are under continuous pressure. The API data shows a significant accumulation of US crude oil inventories last week, and the global supply is in a production - increasing period dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC + production. The oil price is expected to continue to be weakly oscillating [7] - **Asphalt**: The decline has slowed down, and the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate. The geopolitical premium has declined, the supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the over - valuation premium is starting to fall [9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price has entered an oscillating mode. The end of the Palestine - Israel conflict is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, and the demand is still weak [9] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [10] - **PX**: The international oil price is in a stalemate, and PX has limited variables and follows the market to consolidate. The supply and demand are both strong, and the processing fee support is enhanced [12] - **PTA**: The polyester profit has expanded passively, and the sales volume has increased. However, the PTA processing fee is still under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable, and the spot benefit is still under pressure [12] - **Short - Fiber**: The processing fee support is good, and the factory's willingness to sell goods has increased. The overall supply - demand pattern has certain support in the short term [18] - **Bottle Chip**: The short - term processing fee of bottle chips has improved. The upstream polyester raw materials are weakly sorted, and attention should be paid to whether polyester factories increase production due to profit repair [19] - **Methanol**: The port inventory has slightly decreased, and methanol is expected to oscillate widely. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, but considering the possible disturbances in Iran in winter, methanol still has low - buying value [23] - **Urea**: The spot price is firm, but the futures price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" remains unchanged, and the enterprise inventory continues to accumulate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: There are no obvious positive factors, and the supply - demand is relatively under pressure. The futures price is seeking support. There is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in the far - month, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted [16] - **PP**: The oil price is weakly operating, and PP continues to decline. The supply - demand fundamentals support is limited, and the high inventory will suppress the price [29] - **Plastic**: The oil price has fallen, and combined with macro - disturbances, plastic oscillates weakly. The self - fundamental support is limited, and the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory [28] - **Styrene**: The price has broken through the previous low and rebounded slightly after the decline. The high port inventory is the main pressure, and the price is expected to have limited rebound [15] - **PVC**: It has low valuation and weak expectations and oscillates. The macro - level Sino - US tariff disturbance has reappeared, and the micro - level fundamentals are under pressure, with the cost moving down [33] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and the short - position on the futures market should stop profit when the price is low. The short - term spot supply - demand has improved, and future inventory replenishment needs to be concerned [34] 3.4 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, which can reflect the market's expectations for the future price trends of various varieties [35] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety are provided, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the market's delivery situation [36] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data shows the price differences between different varieties, which is helpful for cross - variety arbitrage analysis [38] 3.5 Commodity Index - On October 15, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09%; the PPI commodity index was 1321.22, up 0.27%. The energy index was 1122.04, with a daily decline of 0.82%, a 5 - day decline of 4.56%, a 1 - month decline of 6.33%, and a year - to - date decline of 8.62% [280][281]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market rebounded with shrinking volume, and the bond market declined due to disturbances. The short - term trend of the bond market is expected to be volatile, while the stock market shows signs of improvement with the potential for policy - driven rallies [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The market showed a shrinking - volume rebound, and hedging sentiment eased. The growth preference resurfaced, with power equipment, automobiles, and electronics leading the gains among primary industries. The reduction in IC positions on Wednesday exceeded the increase on Tuesday, and the discount narrowed significantly, possibly indicating concentrated short - covering of IC. The U.S. stocks stopped falling, and the domestic technology - related industries rebounded. The September social financing data showed an increase in corporate medium - and long - term loans, indicating a recovery in corporate demand. With an important meeting approaching at the end of the month, policy - boosting expectations are rising. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [1][7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The implied volatility dropped significantly. The underlying market rose across the board in the afternoon. The trading volume of the options market decreased by 24.91% compared to the previous day. The proportion of bullish trading increased slightly, and the short - term trading scale of buyers did not rise. The PCR of open interest rebounded significantly, and the average absolute value of the volatility index of each variety decreased by 1.72%. Sellers were more willing to add positive - delta positions, and the put - buying options from the previous day were mainly for profit - taking or stop - loss. It is recommended to continue with the monthly covered - call strategy and limit the double - selling strategy to intraday trading [2][7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Risk preference disturbances still exist. Most treasury bond futures closed lower on Wednesday, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts falling by 0.14%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively, and the 2 - year main contract remaining flat. The central bank maintained a loose liquidity environment through open - market operations, which supported the bond market. The September inflation and social financing data were in line with market expectations, and the bond market had already priced them in. The improvement in the equity market's risk preference was negative for the bond market. In the short term, the long - end of the bond market is still greatly affected by risk preference, but the impact of tariffs may be lower than that in early April. The short - term bond market trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to adopt a volatile trend strategy, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, look for long - end arbitrage opportunities, and appropriately focus on the steepening of the yield curve [3][8][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The actual values of China's September export annual rate, PPI annual rate, and social financing scale from the beginning of the year to date were 8.3%, - 2.3%, and 30.09 trillion yuan respectively, with the export annual rate and social financing scale exceeding expectations, and the PPI annual rate in line with expectations. The data for the U.S. September non - farm payrolls change is yet to be released [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Social Financing**: As of the end of September, M2 and M1 balances increased by 8.4% and 7.2% year - on - year respectively. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing scale increment was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [13]. - **New Energy**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities in three years. By the end of 2027, 28 million charging facilities will be built nationwide, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity [13]. - **U.S. Finance**: The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the budget deficit is smaller than last year, and the deficit - to - GDP ratio may reach 3%. A trade agreement with South Korea is imminent, and the relationship between the U.S. and Canada has normalized. The U.S. investment boom is sustainable, and the AI boom is in its early stages [14]. - **Consumption Tax Refund**: Starting from November 1, 2025, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will implement the tax - refund policy for overseas tourists' shopping [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Oscillatory [8] - Alumina: Oscillatory [9] - Aluminum: Oscillatory in the short - term, with the central price likely to rise in the medium - term [11] - Aluminum Alloy: Oscillatory in the short - term, suitable for cross - variety arbitrage; oscillatory within a range in the medium - term [12] - Zinc: Oscillatory with a weakening trend [14] - Lead: Oscillatory [16] - Nickel: Widely oscillatory in the short - term, on the sidelines in the medium - and long - term [20] - Stainless Steel: Oscillatory [22] - Tin: Oscillatory [23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, in the short - to - medium term, with scrap and ore supplies tight, there is a high risk of contraction in the smelting sector, and supply - demand is expected to tighten, which supports the prices of base metals. One can continue to cautiously focus on low - buying and long - selling opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. When the copper - aluminum price ratio returns above 4, one can focus on the opportunity for aluminum ingot price to catch up. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions for copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so there are expectations of supply - demand tightening, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1st; the US federal government has shut down; in September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month, a 4.31% decline, and increased by 11.62% year - on - year; as of October 13th, copper inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 17.2 tons; there is a strike risk at Los Pelambres copper mine [7]. - Logic: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff statement reduces market risk appetite and pressures copper prices. In terms of supply - demand, copper mine supply is tight, processing fees are low, and electrolytic copper production is expected to decline. Demand shows resilience [8]. - Outlook: Constraints on copper supply remain, and supply disruptions are increasing. In the long term, the copper price may show an upward - trending pattern, but in the short term, it is affected by US tariffs and is expected to oscillate [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On October 15th, alumina prices in various regions declined; a Shanxi alumina enterprise is undergoing a 7 - day roasting furnace maintenance, affecting about 10,000 tons of production [8][9]. - Logic: The macro sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the supply is still high, and the price is under pressure, but the decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter may limit the downside [9]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On October 15th, the SMM AOO average price was 20,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; on October 13th, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased; some companies' aluminum production increased [10]. - Logic: The macro tone is positive at home and abroad. The supply side has increasing production capacity, and the demand side is expected to improve as the peak season approaches. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the central price may rise in the medium term [11]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On October 15th, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; in September, automobile sales were strong [11][12]. - Logic: The cost is supported, supply - side production is increasing, demand is warming up, and inventory is accumulating. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the ADC12 - A00 spread is rising, suitable for cross - variety arbitrage; in the medium term, supply - demand is weak, but there are raw material disruption risks, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On October 15th, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a discount; as of October 15th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased by 1.29 tons to 16.31 tons; a mine in Australia delayed high - grade zinc ore mining [14]. - Logic: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff statement is negative. The supply of zinc ore has loosened in the short term, and demand is average. In the long term, supply is expected to increase, and demand growth is limited [14]. - Outlook: In October, zinc ingot production will remain high, demand recovery is limited, and inventory may continue to accumulate. Affected by policies and LME zinc trends, the price is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On October 15th, the price of waste batteries was stable, the price of lead ingots increased by 25 yuan, and the social inventory of lead ingots decreased by 0.09 tons on October 13th; after the National Day, the supply of lead will gradually loosen [15]. - Logic: The spot discount is stable, the supply side's production is increasing, and the demand side's battery factory production is also increasing. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. - Outlook: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the dollar may decline. Currently in the peak consumption season, demand is high, supply is loosening, and the cost is rising slightly. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On October 15th, LME nickel inventory exceeded 240,000 tons; Harita Nickel is implementing sustainable development measures; Antam and CATL plan to build a $6 - billion electric vehicle battery supply chain; the application process for the 2026 RKAB mining quota may be delayed [18][19]. - Logic: Market sentiment dominates the price, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel salt prices are slightly lower, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to use a short - term trading strategy [20]. - Outlook: With LME nickel inventory exceeding 240,000 tons, it will oscillate widely in the short term, and it is on the sidelines in the medium - and long - term [20]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 490 tons; on October 15th, the spot price in Foshan had a premium of 340 yuan/ton; a fire occurred at an HPAL project in Indonesia; on October 14th, the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [21][22]. - Logic: Nickel iron prices are weakening, and chromium prices are stable. In September, stainless steel production increased. Social inventory is accumulating, and there may be over - supply pressure after the peak season [22]. - Outlook: Terminal demand is slightly disappointing, and the cost provides some support. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [22]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On October 15th, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 190 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 50 tons; the average price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 300 yuan/ton [22]. - Logic: During the National Day, there were supply disruptions in the tin market. Supply in Wa State, Indonesia, and Africa is tight, and domestic ore supply is also tight. Supply constraints support the tin price [23]. - Outlook: With tight ore supply, the tin price has bottom support and is expected to oscillate [23]. 3.2行情监测 - The report does not provide specific content under this section. 3.3商品指数 - On October 15th, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2452.91, up 0.77% on the day, down 1.38% in the past 5 days, up 3.25% in the past month, and up 6.26% since the beginning of the year [151][152].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [5] - Protein Meals: Oscillating [5] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [7] - Pigs: Oscillating weakly [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Cotton: Oscillating weakly [13] - Sugar: Oscillating weakly [14] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [16] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the agricultural market has improved, but the trends are differentiated. For example, NR in natural rubber has rebounded significantly, while other varieties show different degrees of oscillation or weak trends [1][9]. - Due to various factors such as policy, supply - demand relationship, and weather, different agricultural products face different market situations. Some are affected by short - term policies and show short - term rebounds, while others are suppressed by long - term supply and demand and show weak trends [7][13]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: May continue to oscillate, waiting for further information. Due to the uncertainty of US soybean demand, the US soybean and soybean oil markets are in a state of oscillation. The domestic oil market is also affected by factors such as the US government "shutdown", trade situation, and production expectations of Brazil [5]. - **Logic**: From a macro perspective, the US government "shutdown", the repeated Sino - US trade situation, and the strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut affect the market. From an industrial perspective, the suspension of US soybean data updates, the expected reduction of US soybean exports, the expected increase in Brazilian soybean production, and the slow de - stocking of domestic soybean oil all contribute to the oscillation of the oil market [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The market continues to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the changes in Sino - US trade relations. - **Logic**: Internationally, the harvest of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, but the export prospects are not good. Brazil's soybean sowing progress is fast. Domestically, the short - term downstream inventory is not low, and the supply pressure is large. In the long term, the supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily, while rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal [5]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: The State Council's guidance to actively enter the market for procurement boosts sentiment, and the futures price rebounds. - **Logic**: The price of domestic corn is running weakly. The pressure of new grain listing is still there, but the launch of reserve grain procurement provides some support. In the long term, the corn market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [7]. 3.4 Pigs - **View**: A small amount of second - fattening pigs enter the market, and the pig price rebounds at a low level. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply pressure continues to increase, and the demand enters the off - season after the National Day. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy to reduce production is implemented, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [7][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The sentiment has improved, but the trends are differentiated. NR has rebounded significantly. - **Logic**: The performance of NR is stronger than that of RU. The reasons include the low import volume of standard rubber, few warehouse receipts, and strong raw materials. The demand is expected to remain stable, and the macro factors have a greater impact on the price. It is recommended to wait and see or continue to pay attention to narrowing the spread [1][9][10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Driven by natural rubber, it rebounds slightly. - **Logic**: The BR futures price follows the trend of NR. The high production volume throughout the year is a major pressure on the futures price. The growth rate of demand is lower than that of production, and the social inventory remains high. The raw material price is weak, and the supply is abundant, so the price is difficult to improve significantly [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The cotton price oscillates at a low level. - **Logic**: The expected increase in China's cotton production in the 25/26 season has led to a decline in the futures price. After the National Day, the decline has slowed down. Future attention should be paid to the purchase price of new cotton, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the actual production of new cotton [12][13]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The sugar price continues to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Internationally, the export volume of Brazilian sugar is increasing, and the international trade flow is loose. Domestically, the import volume is high, the sales are average, and the industrial inventory is increasing. In the long term, the global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 season [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The weak rebound continues. - **Logic**: The futures price of pulp has increased due to the large virtual - to - real ratio of the 01 contract and the possible shortage of deliverable warehouse receipts. However, there are many negative factors in the fundamentals, and the positive factors in the industrial end have limited driving force [15][16]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: It oscillates in a narrow range. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of offset paper have not changed significantly. The publishing tenders in Shandong and Jiangsu are starting, and there is pressure to reduce prices. The supply is increasing, and the demand is limited, so the paper price may decline slightly after the festival [18]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Affected by the delivery side, the futures price oscillates at a low level. - **Logic**: The main contradictions in the log market are the negative impact of domestic timber delivery in Chongqing and the failure of the peak - season expectation in the fundamentals. The demand is weak, the inventory is not low, and the willingness of buyers to take delivery is not strong. The futures price may oscillate in the range of 790 - 840 [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 15, equity indices rose while most CGB futures fell. Commodities showed mixed performances, with precious metals leading the gains. The national PPI for industrial products in September 2025 decreased by 2.3% YoY and remained flat MoM [3][5][12][15]. - The top three gainers of China's commodity futures are SCFIS(Europe), poly - silicon, and silver, while the top three decliners are LSFO, crude oil, and glass. Among financial futures, IM increased by 1.8% and TL decreased by 0.1% [13][14][15]. - Coking coal increased by 1.0% on October 15. Its fundamentals have no prominent contradictions for now, and the price is expected to fluctuate later. Iron ore decreased by 1.5%, with limited upward space and expected short - term price fluctuations. Crude oil decreased by 1.8%, and although it may rebound under certain circumstances, it's difficult to reverse the downward trend [20][23][26][30][33][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On October 15, equity indices rose and most CGB futures fell. Commodities had mixed performances, with precious metals leading the gains. The top three gainers of China's commodity futures are SCFIS(Europe) (up 4.2% with open interest down 0.6% MoM), poly - silicon (up 3.4% with open interest down 1.6% MoM), and silver (up 2.3% with open interest up 2.2% MoM). The top three decliners are LSFO (down 1.9% with open interest up 2.3% MoM), crude oil (down 1.8% with open interest down 4.5% MoM), and glass (down 1.7% with open interest up 3.9% MoM). Among financial futures, IM increased by 1.8% and TL decreased by 0.1% [12][13][14][15]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Coking Coal - On October 15, coking coal increased by 1.0% to 1151 yuan/ton. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the macro - environment is favorable. The price is expected to fluctuate later. On the supply side, most coal mines in producing areas have resumed production, but the import of Mongolian coal is affected by customs system malfunctions and port meetings, and the supply at the port is tight. On the demand side, coke output is stable with a slight decrease, downstream coking enterprises purchase based on rigid demand, and the overall inventory is at a low level [20][21][22][23]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Iron Ore**: On October 15, iron ore decreased by 1.5% to 776.5 yuan/ton. The fundamental pressure is not prominent, but macro - expectations and uncertain Sino - US trade relations limit its upward space. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly MoM, while 45 - port arrivals increased significantly. The average daily output of molten iron in the sample decreased slightly MoM, and steel mills' profit margins continued to decline slightly. Port inventory increased, and some steel mills have post - holiday replenishment plans [26][27][28][29][30]. - **Crude Oil**: On October 15, crude oil decreased by 1.8% to 443.7 yuan/barrel. If tariff concerns ease or geopolitical risks emerge, the price may rebound, but it's difficult to reverse the downward trend. The IEA Monthly Report lowered the demand forecast and raised the supply forecast, increasing oversupply concerns. The global supply is in an increase phase, and later it will face crude oil inventory accumulation pressure [33][34][36]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - In September 2025, the national PPI for industrial products decreased by 2.3% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month, and remained flat MoM. The purchasing price index for industrial producers fell by 3.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and rose by 0.1% MoM. The national CPI decreased by 0.3% YoY and rose by 0.1% MoM [39][42][43]. - In the first 8 months of this year, the manufacturing industry enjoyed nearly RMB 1.3 trillion in tax and fee cuts, exemptions, and rebates. The sales revenue of the manufacturing industry in the first three quarters increased by 4.7% YoY, accounting for 29.8% of the total sales revenue of enterprises across the country [40][43]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increment of the social financing scale was RMB 30.09 trillion, an increase of RMB 4.42 trillion compared with the same period of the previous year. At the end of September, M2 balance was RMB 335.38 trillion, up 8.4% YoY, and RMB loans increased by RMB 14.75 trillion in the first three quarters [40][43]. - The EU is reported to consider forcing Chinese companies to transfer technology to European firms, and China opposes such forced technology transfer and protectionist practices [41][43]. - By the end of 2027, 28 million charging facilities will be built nationwide, and 40,000 "ultra - fast combined" charging guns with power over 60kW will be built or renovated at expressway service areas [41][43][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: Focus on Trump's new tariff threats and potential US government shutdown. There's a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October, and a shutdown over 30 days could raise recession risks [6]. - Domestic: Enter the "15th Five - Year Plan" focus period and track incremental policies. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will discuss the plan, and the progress and effectiveness of a 500 - billion new policy - based financial tool are worth following [6]. - Asset Allocation: There's a risk of increased volatility in global major assets this week. Maintain a strategic allocation of precious metals like gold, be cautious about risk assets in the short - term, and hold the view of equities > commodities > bonds in the fourth - quarter mid - term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: Pay attention to Trump's new tariff threats and US government shutdown. There's a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting, and a long - term shutdown may increase recession risks [6]. - Domestic Macro: Enter the "15th Five - Year Plan" focus period and track incremental policies. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will discuss the plan, and the progress of a 500 - billion new policy - based financial tool is worth following [6]. - Asset View: Global major assets may have increased volatility this week. Suggest maintaining a strategic allocation of precious metals, being cautious about risk assets in the short - term, and holding the view of equities > commodities > bonds in the fourth - quarter mid - term [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial - Stock Index Futures: Catalyzed by tech events, the growth style is active. May experience a volatile rise with the concern of overcrowded small - cap funds [7]. - Stock Index Options: Market turnover slightly declined. Expected to be volatile due to concerns about insufficient option market liquidity [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market remains weak. Expected to be volatile with concerns about policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [7]. Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Driven by dovish expectations, prices are rising. Expected to rise with volatility, with attention on US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [7]. Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there's no upward drive. Expected to be volatile, focusing on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. Black Building Materials - Steel: There's pressure on the fundamentals, and cost support is weakening. Expected to be volatile, focusing on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - Iron Ore: Frequent macro disturbances have weakened market sentiment. Expected to be volatile, focusing on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and policy [7]. - Coke: The fundamentals have little change, and the market is volatile. Expected to be volatile, focusing on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking Coal: Most auctions showed price increases, and Mongolian coal customs clearance was briefly affected. Expected to be volatile, focusing on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Trade frictions have caused a short - term decline in copper prices. Expected to be volatile, with concerns about supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policy [7]. - Aluminum: Pay attention to consumption changes, and aluminum prices are high and volatile. Expected to rise with volatility, with concerns about macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by macro disturbances, the fundamentals are under pressure. Expected to decline with volatility, focusing on OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - LPG: Supply is excessive, and low valuations are hard to change. Expected to decline with volatility, focusing on cost factors [9]. - Methanol: Affected by olefins and high inventory, prices are falling. Expected to be volatile, focusing on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. Agriculture - Oils and Fats: Expected to continue to be volatile, waiting for further information. Focus on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [9]. - Protein Meal: The market remains in low - level volatility. Focus on Sino - US trade relations [9]. - Corn/Starch: Market sentiment is boosted by government - guided purchases, and the price rebounds. Expected to be volatile, focusing on demand, macro factors, and weather [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "Oscillation" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings are as follows: - Steel: Oscillation [8] - Iron ore: Oscillation [9] - Scrap steel: Oscillation [10] - Coke: Oscillation [11] - Coking coal: Oscillation [12] - Glass: Oscillation [12] - Soda ash: Oscillation [14] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [15] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [16] 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the industrial side of the black building materials sector is difficult to show improvement, and the fundamentals lack upward drivers. The inventory of steel failed to decline, coal mine supply recovered, and the destocking of upstream inventory slowed down. The "anti - involution" expectation has not strengthened, and the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has increased, leading to a decline in futures prices [1][2]. - In the second half of October, both overseas macro factors and domestic key meetings are expected to improve market confidence again, which may provide phased support for the prices of sector varieties [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The fundamentals of the sector lack upward drivers after the holiday. The steel inventory accumulation is obvious, and the market sentiment is weak. However, there are still positive factors in the second half of October, such as macro - level support [1][2][6]. 3.2 Specific Varieties Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - Core logic: The spot market trading is weak, with low speculative willingness. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, iron - water production is decreasing from a high level, and electric - furnace profits are still poor. Although some electric furnaces resumed production after the holiday, the overall steel supply is still at a relatively high level. After the National Day, demand recovered to a limited extent, and high supply led to significant inventory accumulation, with the current inventory at a moderately high level [8]. - Outlook: In the short term, the steel price on the disk is under pressure. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US relations and the possibility of positive signals from the important meeting at the end of October, and the difficulty of a trend - like decline in the cost side under the high - iron - water background, the downward space of the disk is limited [8]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: The spot market quotation decreased, and the market sentiment was weak. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The exemption of special port dues for ships built in China eased market concerns. The sample daily average iron - water output decreased slightly, and the steel - mill profitability rate continued to decline slightly, but iron - water was still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The port inventory increased due to the significant increase in arrivals, and the steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore is still supported, and the short - term supply is generally stable. There are still macro - level disturbances before the important meeting, but the general performance of building materials demand during the peak season and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations limit the upward space of iron ore prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [9]. 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel increased this week, reaching a relatively high level in the same period. The price of finished products is under pressure, electric - furnace valley - electricity profits are negative, but the daily consumption of scrap steel increased slightly after some electric furnaces resumed production. The long - process daily consumption of scrap steel decreased due to the slight decline in iron - water production last week, and the overall daily consumption of 255 steel mills decreased. The inventory decreased slightly during the holiday as steel enterprises consumed inventory [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the price will follow the trend of finished products in the short term [10]. 3.2.4 Coke - Core logic: On the futures side, the disk followed coking coal to oscillate. On the spot side, the price at Rizhao Port increased. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is temporarily stable. The steel - mill maintenance increased, and iron - water decreased slightly but remained at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mills mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the coking enterprises accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level [11]. - Outlook: As the peak season is coming to an end, but there is no expectation of a significant decline in iron - water, the rigid demand support is good. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is difficult to increase significantly. The downstream restocking has weakened, but the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. The coking - coal auction price is rising, but the steel price is still weak. Under the game between coking and steel enterprises, the coke price is temporarily in a stalemate. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [11]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: On the futures side, the strengthening of thermal coal drove the coking - coal market sentiment, and the disk oscillated. On the spot side, the prices remained stable. The supply of domestic coal mines has basically recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the supply is temporarily stable. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port has recovered to over 1200 vehicles, but the external transfer was stopped on the afternoon of October 14th and is expected to resume today. The coke production decreased slightly, and the rigid demand support still exists. The downstream coking enterprises mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the upstream coal mines accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level. The coking - coal auction prices showed an upward trend [11]. - Outlook: In the future, it is difficult for coal mine production to increase significantly. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port is still tight, and it will take time for imports to recover. The coke production can still remain at a high level in the short term. The contradictions in the coking - coal fundamentals are not prominent, and the positive market sentiment driven by the strong performance of thermal coal is expected to keep the price oscillating [12]. 3.2.6 Glass - Core logic: After the holiday, the spot sales and production were weak. The macro environment is neutral, and the supply side has limited changes. The rigid demand is still in the peak season, but the intermediate inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is moderately high, with limited restocking ability. The upstream is under pressure to accumulate inventory and reduce prices, and the overall period - spot price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the price shows an oscillating and weakening trend after the period - spot negative feedback. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12]. 3.2.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The domestic important meeting is approaching, and the macro environment is neutral. The daily production is 10.6 tons, and the overall production is moderately high. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand is stable and improving. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has slowed down, and the apparent demand has weakened significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is expected that the upstream will show inventory accumulation this week. The industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern has not changed. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro changes in the future. In the long term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [14]. 3.2.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The peak season of terminal steel demand is not prosperous, and the black sector is under pressure. The manganese - silicon disk failed to rise strongly, and the futures price rose and then fell. The market is waiting for the steel procurement price. The cost of manganese ore is weakly stable, the demand is still resilient, but the production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of destocking is increasing [15]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, the peak - demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still downward space for the price center of manganese silicon after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the decline range of raw - material costs [15]. 3.2.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The performance of terminal steel demand in the peak season is weak, and the prices of black - chain varieties are under pressure. The ferrosilicon disk rose and then fell, and the price center is still at a low level. The market is waiting for the final steel - procurement price. The supply is at a high level, and the pressure of market supply is accumulating, making it more difficult to destock in the future. The demand from steel mills is still resilient, but the magnesium - ingot price is weak [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, the peak - demand season, policy expectations, and firm costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the reduction of electricity costs in the main production areas [16]. 3.3 Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 15, 2025: The commodity index was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09% [101]. - The steel industry chain index on October 15, 2025: The index was 1960.22, with a daily decline of 0.68%, a decline of 1.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.14% in the past month, and a decline of 7.02% since the beginning of the year [102].

Report Core View - Both the heavyweight stocks of ChiNext Index and STAR 50 have outperformed the benchmark index recently, implying that institutional funds are actively building positions in large technology stocks [2] - The ratio of STAR 50 heavyweight stocks to STAR 50 has a guiding effect on the market trend, implying the intention of institutional funds to actively layout or reduce positions [2] Relevant Data - Ratios of top ten heavyweight stocks to ChiNext Index on different dates: 1.3 (2025 - 09 - 16), 1.2 (2025 - 09 - 16), 1.1 (2025 - 09 - 16) [4] - Ratios of top five heavyweight stocks to STAR 50 on different dates: 1.14 (2025 - 07 - 16), 1.08 (2025 - 08 - 16), 1.05 (2025 - 08 - 16) [4] - Ratios of top five stocks to STAR Market on different dates: 1.25 (2025 - 08 - 16), 1.15 (2025 - 08 - 16) [4] - Ratios of top ten stocks to ChiNext on different dates: 1.12 (2025 - 08 - 16), 1.06 (2025 - 08 - 16) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "Oscillating Weakly", including crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC. Some are rated as "Oscillating", such as PVC and caustic soda [3][7][8] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure. Crude oil's fundamentals are continuously pressured due to the increase in supply and the weakening of geopolitical support. Most energy and chemical products' prices are affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of the macro - environment. New device investment news in the chemical industry also impacts market expectations [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Crude oil futures have broken below the lower edge of the shock platform, and the global crude oil supply is expected to exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2026, creating a record high annual surplus. The price structure of Brent and China's SC has changed to Contango. Chemical industry has new device investment news, such as 3 million tons of new PTA devices and 600,000 tons of new styrene devices, which may be put into production before the end of October [2] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - The IEA月报 slightly lowered the demand forecast and raised the supply forecast, increasing concerns about surplus. The global supply is in an increasing period dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC + production, and there is pressure on crude oil inventory accumulation. Geopolitical support is weakening, and macro - risks are fluctuating [7] Asphalt - The asphalt futures price follows the decline of crude oil. The OPEC + group's production increase, the reduction of Saudi Arabia's export discount to Asia, and the cooling of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in geopolitical premiums. The supply of asphalt is increasing, and the pressure on inventory accumulation is still large [8] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both follow the decline of crude oil. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict is a negative factor, and the demand is still weak. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the increase in supply [8][10] Methanol - Affected by the drag of olefins and high inventory, the price is in a shock - finishing state. The high inventory and the expectation of winter reduction still affect the price. The parking time of Iranian methanol enterprises in winter has been gradually extended in the past three years [2] Urea - The market sentiment has declined, and the price is under pressure. The spot price has increased, but the futures price has decreased due to the weakening of market sentiment [19][20] Ethylene Glycol - The inflection point of port inventory has appeared, and there is pressure on supply - demand expectations. The market is in a state of small inventory accumulation in the short term [13] PX - The decline in oil prices has led to the collapse of costs, and there is no new positive news in supply and demand. The supply side still maintains a high load, and the price is affected by cost disturbances [11] PTA - The news of new device investment has depressed market expectations. Under the resonance of cost and supply - demand, the price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the basis remains weak [11] Short - Fiber - Affected by cost, the price has decreased, but the supply - demand pattern is acceptable, and the processing fee has increased slightly [15] Bottle - Chip - The collapse of cost has led to the decline of price. The processing fee is relatively stable, and the export price has been lowered [16] Propylene - The cost has decreased, and the tariff game has restarted, resulting in a weak shock [25] PP - The support from the raw material side is limited, and the price has decreased. The supply is increasing, and the demand support is limited [24] Plastic - Affected by the decline in oil prices and macro - disturbances, the price is in a weak shock. The upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory, which suppresses the price [23] Styrene - There are still concerns about inventory over - filling. Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved, the high port inventory is still a major pressure [13] PVC - The fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is in a shock state. The cost has decreased, the production has declined due to autumn maintenance, and the downstream demand is weak [26] Caustic Soda - The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price can stop profit when it is low. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but attention should be paid to future inventory replenishment and profit changes [27] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - It includes cross - period spreads, basis and warehouse receipts, and cross - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, reflecting the price differences and changes between different varieties and different periods [29][30][32] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data are not detailed in the text, it is expected to monitor the basis and spread changes of chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [33][45][57] 4. Commodity Index - On October 14, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the commodity index all showed a decline. The energy index also declined, with a daily decline of 0.75%, a 5 - day decline of 5.67%, a 1 - month decline of 6.59%, and a decline of 7.87% since the beginning of the year [274][276]