Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "volatile" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17] Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the steel industry's steady - growth plan emphasizing crude steel reduction and the approaching military parade leading to production restrictions, the black building materials sector is still subject to short - term disturbances. After the military parade, with low inventory in the industrial chain and restocking demand, there is a driving force for price rebounds. However, weak terminal demand during the peak season may limit the upside space [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - The steel industry's steady - growth plan emphasizes crude steel reduction, and the approaching military parade restricts production. This has a negative impact on the demand for furnace materials, causing the prices of coal, coke, and ore to decline during the day, which in turn drags down steel prices. At night, the sector remains under pressure. After the military parade, steel mills are expected to resume production, and with the pre - National Day restocking demand, the sector may rise [1] 2. Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected [2][9] - Demand: Iron water production decreased slightly. As the military parade approaches, steel mills in Hebei will gradually enter maintenance, and iron water production is expected to decline, but the impact is limited. After the military parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2][9] - Inventory: This week, iron ore ports reduced inventory, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals are supportive, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2][9] - Scrap steel: The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. The pressure on finished product prices has led to low EAF profits, but resources are still tight. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][10] 3. Carbon Element - Coke: As the military parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. In the short term, the coke supply remains tight. Although price increases are difficult to implement, prices are supported before the military parade. After the military parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored [2][11] - Coking coal: Before the military parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the downward price space is expected to be limited [2][11] 4. Alloys - Manganese silicon: Currently, the inventory pressure of manganese silicon manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost side still supports prices in the short term. However, the future market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and prices are under significant downward pressure in the medium - to - long term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [2][16] - Ferrosilicon: The current inventory pressure of ferrosilicon manufacturers is not large, and the cost side still supports prices in the short term. However, the future market supply - demand relationship will become looser, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of power costs in major production areas [2][17] 5. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are high. After trading the delivery contradictions, the far - month contracts still offer a premium. In the medium - to - long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed. If prices return to fundamental trading, they are expected to decline with fluctuations [3][12][13] 6. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After the decline in the futures market, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline, driving capacity reduction [3][15] 7. Specific Product Analysis - Steel: The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the futures market is weak. Before and after the military parade, both supply and demand will be affected. In the short term, the futures market may continue to adjust weakly. After the military parade, the release of restocking demand during the peak season may support prices [8] - Iron ore: Shipments and arrivals increased, and port inventory decreased slightly. The demand is at a high level, and the supply and inventory are stable. The fundamentals are supportive, and the price is expected to fluctuate [9] - Scrap steel: The supply decreased, and the demand from both EAF and blast furnaces declined. The inventory decreased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10] - Coke: It is difficult to implement price increases, and the supply has tightened. Before the military parade, the price is supported, and after the military parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored [11] - Coking coal: The supply has tightened, and the market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to remain stable before the military parade [11] - Glass: The mid - stream sales pressure has squeezed the upstream production and sales. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [12][13] - Soda ash: The supply has been slightly disturbed, and the inventory has decreased rapidly. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and decline in the long term [15] - Manganese silicon: The black chain declined, and the futures price was weak. The short - term cost support remains, but the medium - to - long - term price has significant downward pressure [16] - Ferrosilicon: Market confidence is insufficient, and the futures price center has moved down. The short - term cost support remains, but the medium - to - long - term price center will tend to decline [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but political pressure on the Fed has raised market expectations of interest rate cuts. The dovish stance of Powell at the global central bank annual meeting and Trump's dismissal of a hawkish Fed governor have pushed up these expectations. However, service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about Fed independence are tail - risks. The overseas liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel, which may support the recovery of total demand [7]. - Domestic: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved, and the "anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Recent demand - side policies in first - tier cities may increase trading volume, but the sustainability needs to be observed. After the important events in early September, China may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamentals may play a more important role in asset pricing, especially for short - duration commodity assets [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are stable. Political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts. The dovishness of Powell at the August global central bank annual meeting and Trump's dismissal of a hawkish Fed governor on August 25 have further pushed up these expectations. US consumers' willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating at a low level, and real wage growth is flat. Service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about Fed independence are tail - risks [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved. The "anti - involution" has led to better mid - stream profits in July. From January to July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size has narrowed to - 1.7%. First - tier cities have introduced demand - side policies, but the overall policy strength is relatively weak, with more relaxation for new houses in suburban areas of core cities [7]. - **Asset Views**: Short - term market volatility may increase in early September in China. After important events, China may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamentals may have a greater impact on asset pricing. Overseas, liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel, which may support non - dollar assets [7]. 2. View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: V - shaped rebound and high - level oscillation. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to the decline of incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Hold bull spreads following the market. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The yield curve steepens. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [8]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The US interest rate cut cycle may restart in September, but the impact of market risk appetite needs to be considered. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is a lack of upward drivers. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Supply - demand contradictions are accumulating, and the futures market is weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production is decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: The eighth - round negotiation continues, and supply is tightening. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is tightening, and there is no inventory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and attention is paid to cost adjustments. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply pressure is accumulating, and the futures market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply is still increasing, and peak - season demand needs to be verified. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply fluctuates slightly, and the expectation of oversupply remains. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to soda ash inventory [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The suspension of tariffs between China and the US has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [8]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventory is slightly accumulating, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The decline in black - series prices has led to a decline in zinc prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The continuous increase in nickel - iron prices has led to a correction in the stainless - steel futures market. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected increases in demand [8]. - **Tin**: Raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously changing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The multi - empty game continues, and prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [10]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread is stabilizing, and attention is paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the progress of cost - side factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Shandong spot prices have declined, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical tensions have met with an increase in warehouse receipts, and fuel oil prices first rose and then fell. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are following crude oil prices and oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory is accumulating, and olefin prices are falling. Methanol prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand are mainly loose, waiting for the recovery of autumn demand and the release of exports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the actual implementation of exports [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The low - inventory fundamentals are competing with macro sentiment, and the downward support is relatively strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [10]. - **PX**: The market atmosphere has cooled, and there is insufficient upward support. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak seasons [10]. - **PTA**: The terminal market atmosphere has cooled slightly, but the tight supply - demand situation still supports prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak seasons [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream is in a wait - and - see mood, and the peak - season performance needs to be verified. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythm and unexpected device load reduction [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: Mainstream large - scale manufacturers continue to reduce production, and there is a possibility of further reduction. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected increases in bottle - chip enterprise production and a surge in overseas export orders [10]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows PP fluctuations in the short term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [10]. - **PP**: The pressure of new production capacity is increasing, and PP prices are oscillating weakly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: The fundamental support is limited, and plastic prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality is suppressing, and PVC prices are running weakly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and caustic soda prices are oscillating temporarily. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [10]. Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: There may still be a need for short - term adjustment, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of the lower - level technical support. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The release of state reserves has pushed down soybean meal prices, and point - price trading is expected to keep prices oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Traders are pre - stocking, and sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to less - than - expected demand, the macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pig**: The supply is expected to be abundant, and futures prices are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The overall trend is relatively strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has rebounded to the previous high and is following the trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations [10]. - **Pulp**: There is a differentiation between near - and far - term contracts, and the main pulp contract is weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced positions, and cotton prices have declined within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The driving force is downward, but the short - term downward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to imports [10]. - **Log**: The delivery pressure is still large, and log prices are weakly adjusting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to shipment volume and shipping volume [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for various black building materials, mostly rated as "oscillating". The specific ratings for each variety are as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [8] - Iron ore: Oscillating [9] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [10] - Coke: Oscillating [11] - Coking coal: Oscillating [12] - Glass: Oscillating [14] - Soda ash: Oscillating [18] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [19] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy's mention of stabilizing the growth of the steel industry had a limited positive impact, and the futures market showed a muted reaction. The overall black building materials market is expected to oscillate, with potential for a slight rebound if there are positive drivers. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the coming weeks and the recovery of furnace material supply [1][2]. - The black building materials market's cost has some support, but the expected weak demand during the peak season restricts the upside potential. The market will continue to be affected by factors such as the implementation of policies and the performance of terminal demand [6]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Steel - Core logic: The steel industry's growth - stabilizing plan has led to a slight increase in the futures price. Steel spot trading is average, with more low - price transactions. This week, some steel mills resumed production and increased output, resulting in an increase in rebar production and stable hot - rolled coil production. During the transition between the off - season and peak season, rebar's apparent demand has improved month - on - month but is still lower year - on - year, and inventory continues to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains resilient, and inventory also accumulates under high production. The apparent demand for medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products has weakened, and inventory has increased. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and inventory has continued to accumulate [8]. - Outlook: During the off - season to peak - season transition, steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the market is cautious about the peak - season demand. Supply and demand will be affected around the military parade, and the impact of blast furnace production restrictions may be reflected in next week's data. After the parade, pig iron production may remain at a high level, and the cost side still has some support. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely in the short term. Focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: Port trading volume decreased slightly. The spot market prices increased, and port trading volume decreased. Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, approaching last year's level. Total supply is relatively stable. Pig iron production decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of a decline in pig iron production as some steel mills in Hebei enter maintenance at the end of the month, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level. This week, port inventory decreased, berthing increased, and factory inventory decreased, resulting in a slight decline in total inventory [3][8]. - Outlook: With high iron ore demand, stable supply and inventory, and limited negative fundamental drivers, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased month - on - month this week. Due to the pressure on finished products, the profit of electric arc furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric arc furnaces and blast furnaces has decreased. Factory inventory has slightly decreased, and the available inventory days are at a low level [10]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. Although the profit of electric arc furnaces is low due to the pressure on finished product prices, resources are still tight. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [10]. 3.4 Coke - Core logic: In the futures market, the implementation of the steel growth - stabilizing plan and the ongoing negotiation of the eighth round of price increases have led to an oscillating market. In the spot market, the price in Rizhao Port decreased. As the military parade approaches, the production of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production. Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but due to the military parade, the production of some steel mills in North China will be restricted, and transportation is tightened, resulting in low inventory in local steel mills and common rush - order situations. Some coking enterprises have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, the upstream coking enterprise inventory is still at a low level [11]. - Outlook: As the military parade approaches, the production restrictions on coke are stronger than those on steel mills. In the short term, the coke market will remain tight. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of price increases to be implemented, the futures price will still be supported before the parade [11]. 3.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: In the futures market, due to the tightening of coal mine safety supervision before the military parade and the implementation of the steel growth - stabilizing plan, the market oscillates. In the spot market, the price of some coking coal decreased. On the supply side, the production of some coal mines is restricted due to accidents and other factors, and safety inspections are increasing. Some coal mines have voluntarily reduced production, resulting in a tightening of coal mine production before the parade. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, and the impact of the military parade is currently limited. On the demand side, the eighth round of coke price increases has started, with regional differences. Coking production in some areas is restricted, and the short - term rigid demand for coking coal has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises are mainly purchasing on - demand, and spot trading is weak and stable. Some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, the previous inventory reduction to a low level and a large number of pre - sold orders mean that there is no obvious inventory pressure for now [3][12]. - Outlook: Before the military parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increases to be implemented, the futures price will still be supported before the parade [12]. 3.6 Glass - Core logic: The spot price is stable. The demand in the off - season has decreased, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass have increased significantly to a high level this year. Downstream has limited ability to replenish inventory. As the traditional peak season approaches, some upstream manufacturers are promoting sales by raising prices, and downstream purchasing has stabilized overall. On the supply side, a new production line has been ignited recently, and there are still production lines to be ignited in Shahe. The daily melting volume is expected to increase steadily. As the delivery approaches, the spot price has decreased, and the delivery logic is becoming more dominant. The fundamentals are still weak, and the reverse - spread logic is still stable. It is expected that the futures and spot prices will oscillate widely in the short term [14]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the raw material price is strong. After the delivery contradiction trading, the far - month contract still has a premium. In the long term, capacity reduction through marketization is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [16][17]. 3.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The price of heavy soda ash delivered to Shahe decreased. The sentiment in the domestic commodity market is weakening, and as the delivery approaches, the fundamental logic returns, with a neutral macro - environment. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and long - term pressure remains. In the short term, the production in Alxa is affected, but it is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future. On the demand side, heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid - demand purchasing. There are still some production lines that have not produced glass, and the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has bottomed out and rebounded. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to increase steadily. The downstream purchasing of light soda ash has remained flat, but the overall downstream inventory - replenishment sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. As the shipping problem is resolved, the inventory in the middle reaches has accumulated, and the downstream willingness to receive goods is weak. The futures price may return to fundamental trading [18]. - Outlook: The oversupply situation has not changed. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [18]. 3.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The futures price of manganese silicon first declined weakly and then oscillated upward. In the spot market, a new round of steel procurement has started, and the market is waiting and watching. The spot price adjustment is small. The October manganese ore price quote is flat month - on - month. Recently, port trading has been sluggish, but miners are reluctant to reduce prices, and port ore prices have not fluctuated much. On the demand side, steel mills' profits are good, and finished product production is still at a high level. As the military parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, but in September, as the peak season begins and after the parade, finished product production is expected to increase. On the supply side, manganese silicon production has reached a high level this year, and market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [19]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is temporarily controllable. Due to cost support, the short - term decline in manganese silicon prices is limited. However, as the market supply - demand relationship becomes looser, there is still downward pressure on prices in the long term. Pay attention to the reduction in raw material costs [19]. 3.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The futures price of ferrosilicon continued to decline. In the spot market, trading was weak, but manufacturers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the spot price adjustment was small. On the supply side, manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated recently, and ferrosilicon production has gradually reached a high level. On the demand side, steel production has remained stable at a high level, and the steel - making demand for ferrosilicon still has some resilience. As the military parade approaches, steel production will decline, but in the peak season, finished product production will gradually increase. In the metal magnesium market, supply pressure has increased, while demand is still weak, and the magnesium ingot price is under pressure [20]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is not large. Due to cost support, the short - term downward adjustment space for ferrosilicon prices is limited. However, the future market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and in the long term, the price center will tend to decline. Pay attention to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in major production areas [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [5] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum: Oscillating [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Oscillating [9] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [12] - Lead: Oscillating [13] - Nickel: Oscillating [16] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating [21] - Tin: Oscillating [22] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by the weak US dollar and tariff games, with base metals oscillating. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the weak demand expectation makes it uncertain whether the inventory will decrease in the peak season in September. In the long term, potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disturbances support base metal prices [1]. - For different metals, their prices are affected by various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: Powell's dovish speech increases the probability of a Fed rate cut in September. The consumer confidence index in the US declined in August. China's electrolytic copper production increased in July. The spot copper price had a certain premium, and the inventory increased slightly [5]. - Logic: The dovish Fed speech boosts copper prices. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, but the inventory accumulation is not obvious. Low inventory supports copper prices in the short term [5]. - Outlook: Copper may oscillate due to supply constraints, low inventory, weakening demand, and the impact of US tariffs [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: The spot price of alumina declined on August 28, and the warehouse receipt increased [6]. - Logic: The smelter's profit is good, the operating capacity is at a high level, the supply - demand balance shows an obvious surplus, and the inventory accumulation trend expands. The price is expected to oscillate under pressure [7]. - Outlook: Oscillate weakly, and consider short - selling opportunities on rallies [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: The price of aluminum declined on August 28, the inventory of aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased slightly. Some aluminum - related companies' performance in the first half of 2025 showed growth [8]. - Logic: The expectation of a US rate cut weakens the US dollar. The supply capacity is high, the demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches, but the terminal consumption is not strong. The inventory accumulates, and the spot is at a discount. The price is expected to oscillate [9]. - Outlook: Oscillate in the short term, and the consumption and inventory accumulation need to be observed [9]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: The price of ADC12 remained unchanged on August 28, the price of AOO aluminum declined, and the difference between them increased. The exchange adjusted the margin and price limit of cast aluminum alloy futures [9]. - Logic: The short - term supply - demand is weak. The cost is supported by the price of scrap aluminum. The supply side's production decreased, and the demand side's procurement is cautious. The factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased. Consider cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [10]. - Outlook: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 will oscillate at a low level in the short term and may rise in the future [10]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: The spot zinc price had a discount on August 28, and the inventory increased [12]. - Logic: The macro - situation is neutral. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the smelter's profit is good, and the production willingness is strong. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the long term [12]. - Outlook: The zinc price will oscillate weakly in the long term, and the inventory may continue to accumulate in August [12]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information: The price of waste batteries and lead ingots declined on August 28, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The transportation was restricted, and some regenerative lead enterprises were under maintenance [13]. - Logic: The spot discount is stable, the supply of waste batteries decreases, the production of lead ingots decreases slightly, and the demand for lead - acid batteries increases slightly. The price is expected to oscillate [14]. - Outlook: The lead price will oscillate due to the increase in demand and the possible decrease in supply, but the incomplete recovery of the battery enterprise's operating rate also puts pressure on the price [14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic warehouse receipt decreased slightly. There were many events in the nickel industry, such as business sales and policy adjustments [16]. - Logic: The market sentiment dominates the market, the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally, the supply of raw materials may be loose, the production of intermediate products recovers, the price of nickel salt weakens slightly, and the inventory accumulates. The price should be traded short - term [19]. - Outlook: The nickel price will oscillate in the short term and be observed in the long term [19]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel warehouse receipt decreased, the spot price had a premium, and the price of nickel pig iron increased. The price of Indonesian domestic trade ore is expected to decline slightly [21]. - Logic: The price of nickel iron rises, the price of chrome iron is stable, the production of stainless steel decreases, the social inventory accumulates slightly, and the warehouse receipt decreases. The price is expected to oscillate [21]. - Outlook: The stainless steel price may oscillate in the short term, and pay attention to the changes in inventory and cost [21]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information: The warehouse receipt of LME and Shanghai tin decreased, and the spot price declined slightly [22]. - Logic: The supply of tin ore is tight, the production and export of tin in some regions are unstable, the smelting start - up rate is low, and the terminal demand weakens marginally. The price has a support at the bottom but lacks upward momentum [22]. - Outlook: The tin price will oscillate, and the volatility may increase in August [22]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of different metals for monitoring, but no specific monitoring content is provided [25][39][51]. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and sector index (non - ferrous metal index) of CITIC Futures are presented. The specialty index increased slightly, and the non - ferrous metal index decreased by 0.22% on August 28 but increased by 0.28% in the past 5 days, 0.45% in the past month, and 2.89% since the beginning of the year [137][139].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Volatile in the short term, with a high probability of stronger performance in the medium term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Volatile with an internal-weak and external-strong pattern. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies for hedging, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Volatile, with a short-term rebound and a long-term expectation of price decline due to increased supply [7][8] - **Pigs**: Volatile. The spot and near-term contracts are expected to remain weak, while the far-term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term [9][10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term [11] - **Cotton**: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term, with a price range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] - **Sugar**: Volatile and tending to weaken in the long term, with a short-term trading range of 5,550 - 5,750 yuan/ton [13] - **Pulp**: Volatile, with the main contract remaining weak [15] - **Logs**: Volatile and tending to weaken, with the option to buy the far-month 11 contract on dips in the range of 790 - 840 [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The continuous expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US exerts pressure on the oils and fats market, but factors such as increased biodiesel demand and potential reduction in US soybean yield may support the market in the medium term [5] - The rapid decline in soybean import crushing margins has led to a focus on the support at the integer level for soybean meal. The market shows an internal-weak and external-strong pattern [7] - The increase in forward orders has led to a rebound in the corn futures market, but the long-term expectation is for prices to decline due to increased supply [7][8] - The pig market is under inventory pressure, with the spot and near-term contracts remaining weak. The far-term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] - The natural rubber market is in a seasonally rising period, with support from both macro and fundamental factors, and is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen in the short term [9][10] - The synthetic rubber market follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the tight supply of its raw material, butadiene [11] - The cotton market has strong support at the current stage due to low inventory and improved demand, but may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] - The sugar market is under pressure from increased supply, with a long-term expectation of price decline and short-term volatility [13] - The pulp market shows a divergence between the near and far contracts, with the main contract remaining weak [15] - The log market has a marginal improvement in fundamentals but faces pressure from new warehouse receipts and low buyer willingness [16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Situation**: US soybean futures were volatile and bearish on Wednesday due to the expectation of a bumper harvest, and domestic oils and fats continued to adjust downward on Thursday, with palm oil being relatively weak [5] - **Macro Environment**: The market is concerned about the impact of US economic data on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. The US dollar rose and then fell on Wednesday, and crude oil prices rose due to a larger-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories [5] - **Industry Analysis**: US soybeans are growing well, and the market is sensitive to weather. The new US biodiesel policy is expected to benefit US soybean oil demand, but the demand has decreased year-on-year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, and soybean oil inventory may peak. Malaysian palm oil is likely to continue to accumulate inventory in August, and the demand for palm oil from Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high year-on-year [5] - **Outlook**: The adjustment pressure on oils and fats remains large in the near term, but there is a high probability of stronger performance in the medium term [5] 3.2 Protein Meal - **Market Data**: On August 28, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes showed different changes. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 89.69 yuan/ton, with a significant week-on-week decline [6] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans has recovered, and the weather in the US soybean-producing areas is generally favorable. Brazilian soybean exports have peaked, and the premium has been falling. Domestically, the import crushing margin has declined rapidly, and the state reserve will auction 164,000 tons of imported soybeans on August 29. The supply gap risk before December has significantly decreased, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7] - **Outlook**: The market maintains an internal-weak and external-strong pattern. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies for hedging, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7] 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Market Information**: The average price of domestic corn was 2,351 yuan/ton, with a slight decline. The closing price of the main contract was 2,185 yuan/ton, with a 0.97% increase [7] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of old corn is tightening, but the supply of new corn will gradually increase. The demand side has some replenishment needs, and there is a risk of a late rebound. The long-term expectation is for prices to decline due to increased supply [7][8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in the destocking of old corn, and there is an expectation of price decline during the peak period of new corn listing. In the long term, the expectation of tight supply supports the idea of low-price buying [7][8] 3.4 Pigs - **Market Information**: On August 28, the price of live pigs in Henan was 13.64 yuan/kg, with a 0.59% increase. The closing price of the futures contract was 13,590 yuan/ton, with a 1.13% decrease [8] - **Logic Analysis**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the inventory pressure is high. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to guide the industry to eliminate excess capacity, but the implementation needs to be observed [8] - **Outlook**: The market is volatile, with the spot and near-term contracts remaining weak and the far-term contracts supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Situation**: The natural rubber futures market was strong on Thursday, with prices rising [9] - **Logic Analysis**: The natural rubber market is in a seasonally rising period, with various speculative themes. The short-term supply of ships may decrease, and the demand is rigid. The supply increase may be postponed due to heavy rainfall in the producing areas [9][10] - **Outlook**: The macro sentiment is favorable, and the fundamentals are supportive in the short term. The rubber price is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen [9][10] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Situation**: The BR futures market rebounded following the trend of natural rubber [11] - **Logic Analysis**: The synthetic rubber market follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the tight supply of its raw material, butadiene. The supply of butadiene has decreased due to some device maintenance and production reduction, and the demand from the main downstream industries is stable [11] - **Outlook**: The price of butadiene is expected to rise slightly in the short term, and the futures market is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen [11] 3.7 Cotton - **Market Information**: As of August 28, the number of registered warehouse receipts for the 24/25 cotton year was 6,720. The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts showed a decline [12] - **Logic Analysis**: The current commercial inventory of cotton is at a relatively low level, and the demand is improving. The expected increase in the purchase price of seed cotton by upstream ginneries will support the futures price. However, the expected increase in production in the new year may put pressure on prices [12] - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen in the short term, with a price range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] 3.8 Sugar - **Market Information**: As of August 28, the closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures contracts showed a decline [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, the new sugar season is expected to have an oversupply situation, with Brazil's sugar production increasing and Thailand and India also expected to have higher yields. Domestically, the import volume of sugar has increased, leading to an increase in supply [13] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the sugar price is expected to decline due to the expected oversupply. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile within the range of 5,550 - 5,750 yuan/ton [13] 3.9 Pulp - **Market Information**: The prices of some pulp varieties in Shandong showed a decline [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The pulp futures market showed a divergence between the near and far contracts, with the main contract continuing to decline. The decline is mainly attributed to the delivery pressure of the 09 contract. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, with the broadleaf pulp market showing a marginal improvement [15] - **Outlook**: The pulp market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract remaining weak [15] 3.10 Logs - **Market Situation**: The log market was weak this week, with the 09 contract adjusting downward [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The fundamentals of the log market have improved marginally, with a reduction in supply pressure and an increase in cost. However, the new warehouse receipts and low buyer willingness may put pressure on the market [16] - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to be volatile and tend to weaken. It is recommended to buy the far-month 11 contract on dips in the range of 790 - 840 [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, it uses descriptions like "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", etc., with specific rating criteria provided at the end of the report [273]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical industry is following the decline of raw materials such as coal and crude oil due to the absence of the expected anti - involution policy. The downstream demand of most chemical products is less than expected during the peak season. Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating mindset and wait for the specific anti - involution policies of China's petrochemical industry [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic of Each Product - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. Geopolitical prospects are uncertain, and the market is under supply pressure from OPEC+ rapid production increase and resilient US production. The high -开工 rate of refineries in China and the US is starting to decline, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [6]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt futures prices oscillate and decline. The supply tension has eased, and the demand is not optimistic. The absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [6][7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. The geopolitical premium has increased and then decreased with the increase of warehouse receipts. The demand has changed, and the cracking spread is still high. Geopolitical upgrades have a short - term impact on prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand to decline, with low valuation and following crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventories are accumulating, but the inventory pressure in the inland is limited. The futures price oscillates. The market buying sentiment is relatively stable, and there may be long - term low - buying opportunities in the far - month [21]. - **Urea**: Foreign media reports have triggered an upward sentiment, but it is difficult to implement in practice. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly and oscillate [21]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Both supply and demand are increasing, and the low inventory provides strong support. The price oscillates within a range, and the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage position can be closed [14][16]. - **PX**: There is selling - short hedging pressure above, and the downstream polyester's willingness to chase the price has slowed down. The price is adjusted in the short term, with a relatively stable pattern and limited adjustment range [11]. - **PTA**: The cost support is insufficient, and the downstream polyester is waiting and watching, with poor purchasing enthusiasm. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 4700 - 5000 [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: After the atmosphere cools down, the sales volume declines, and the price is passively adjusted. The price is expected to oscillate and sort out in the short term [16][17][18]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The production reduction in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary. The price is expected to oscillate, with the absolute value following the raw materials [18][20]. - **PP**: There is still some supply pressure, and it oscillates. The impact of news on production reduction is limited, and the demand is cautious [24][25]. - **Propylene (PL)**: It follows PP to oscillate in the short term. The price is affected by sentiment and inventory, and the processing fee between PP and PL is a key focus [25]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance provides some support, and it oscillates in the short term. The impact of news on production reduction is limited, and the supply pressure persists [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The inventories in the industry chain are all high, and it returns to a weak state. The short - term trend is dominated by sentiment, and it may return to inventory accumulation in the medium term [11][13]. - **Styrene**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and it resumes decline. The supply - demand situation is still bearish in the fundamentals, but short - term short - selling is against the trend [13][14]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment weakens, and it runs weakly. The cost is stable, and the supply is decreasing while the demand has not changed much [28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot rebound slows down, and the market observes the situation. The short - term spot increase slows down, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the long - term [28][29]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for multiple products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in the spread [30]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and inventory status [31]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents inter - variety spread data such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., showing the price differences between different products [32].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its volatile upward trend on Thursday. After the release of better - than - expected US Q2 GDP and lower - than - expected weekly initial and continuing jobless claims data, precious metals briefly pulled back but quickly regained ground due to the overall weakness of the US dollar and US Treasury yields. The US dollar gold price showed a more prominent upward trend, while the RMB gold price increase was limited by exchange - rate appreciation. Before the release of next week's non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a 25BP Fed rate cut in September remained stable, and dovish expectations were expected to continue to dominate the market, with the precious metals market likely to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend [1][3]. - The report is optimistic about the medium - term trend of gold but warns that the strengthening of emerging - market equities may suppress its elasticity. The Fed's rate - cut cycle is expected to resume in September. The shadow Fed chairman is likely to align with the president's preferences before taking office, and overseas liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters. The market may also trade the risk of the Fed's independence, which is positive for the gold trend. However, the strong performance of the global equity market, especially in emerging markets, may reduce the attractiveness of the precious metals market. A stagflation combination of rate cuts and a weakening economy is more beneficial to gold, while a rate - cut and recovery combination would limit gold's elasticity and benefit silver more [3]. - The weekly target ranges are [3300, 3500] for London gold spot and [36, 40] for London silver spot [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US Q2 real GDP annualized revised value increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. Real personal consumption expenditure revised value increased by 1.6% quarter - on - quarter, compared with the initial value of 1.4%. The final sales annualized revised value increased by 6.8% quarter - on - quarter, compared with the initial value of 6.3%. US Q2 corporate profits annualized initial value increased by 2% quarter - on - quarter, while the Q1 final value decreased by 3.3% [2]. - US Q2 core PCE price index annualized revised value increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, lower than the expected 2.6% but the same as the initial value; it increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the same as the initial value. The US Q2 PCE price index annualized revised value increased by 2% quarter - on - quarter, compared with the initial value of 2.1%; it increased by 2.4% year - on - year, the same as the initial value [2]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000, and the previous value was revised from 235,000 to 234,000. The four - week average was 228,500, compared with the previous value of 226,250. The number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending August 16 was 1,954,000, lower than the expected 1,970,000, and the previous value was revised from 1,972,000 to 1,961,000 [2]. - Lisa Cook sued Trump for his attempt to remove her from the position of Fed governor [2]. Price Logic - The precious metals market's short - term pullback was due to economic data, but the overall upward trend was maintained because of the weak US dollar and US Treasury yields. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was stable, and dovish expectations dominated. The medium - term outlook for gold was positive, but emerging - market equity strength might pose a challenge. Different economic combinations (rate cuts + weak economy or rate cuts + recovery) would have different impacts on gold and silver [3]. Outlook - The weekly target ranges are [3300, 3500] for London gold spot and [36, 40] for London silver spot [4]. Commodity Index - On August 28, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index data showed that the commodity index was 2215.26, up 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2466.34, up 0.28%; the industrial products index was 2250.61, up 0.27%; the PPI commodity index was 1320.77, down 0.04% [41]. - The precious metals index on August 28, 2025, was 2740.59, with a daily increase of 0.42%, a 5 - day increase of 1.50%, a 1 - month increase of 2.42%, and a year - to - date increase of 23.87% [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The expectation of monetary easing supports market risk appetite. In China, the difficulty of achieving the annual economic target is not high, and market risk appetite may also be supported. Short - term market volatility may increase as important events approach and economic growth slows [7]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. Domestic market sentiment may remain high until early September, after which the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to become looser [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. Powell's speech at the annual meeting was dovish, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. US consumer confidence deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permit issuance continued to decline [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened marginally, but it is still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand remains at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose, providing support for related assets [7]. - **Asset Views**: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high - level sentiment until early September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to enter a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel. Short - term market volatility may increase [7]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is early profit - taking. The decline of incremental funds is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The bearish side has strong betting. The deterioration of option market liquidity is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve steepens. Concerns include unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of a restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September is positive for prices, but the impact of market risk appetite needs attention. Concerns include US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is no driving force for price increases. The rate of price decline in September is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The actual support is limited, and the futures prices are under pressure. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The daily consumption of imported sinter has decreased, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coke**: The eighth - round negotiation continues, and some coke enterprises are reducing production. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The black chain is under pressure, and futures prices are weak. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The sector remains weak, and futures prices are running weakly. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are maintained, and some regions are promoting price stability through price increases. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has decreased in the short - term, and rigid demand remains. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed policies, weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventory has slightly accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and weaker - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black series have fallen, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [8]. - **Lead**: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has been rising, and the stainless - steel futures prices are correcting. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected growth in demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Tin**: Raw material supply remains tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously volatile. Concerns include unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The game between bulls and bears continues, and prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized. Attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have fallen, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are following the decline of crude oil. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating downward following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory has accumulated, but petrochemical news has provided short - term support. Methanol prices are oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea prices are oscillating in the short - term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Low inventory and peak - season expectations resonate, providing strong support for prices at the lower end. Concerns include fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PX**: Emotional stimulation and peak - season promotion. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **PTA**: Supply decreases and demand increases, with an expected inventory reduction from August to October. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. Concerns include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device load reduction. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: Inventory has declined, and processing fees are under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. Concerns include unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Propylene**: In the short - term, it mainly follows the fluctuations of PP. Concerns include oil prices and the domestic macro - environment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PP**: News related to Zhonghan Petrochemical has stimulated the market, but fundamental support is limited. PP prices are oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Plastic**: News of anti - internal competition in the petrochemical industry has provided support, and plastic prices have strengthened slightly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has improved, and PVC prices have weakly stabilized. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Caustic Soda and Oils**: The rebound of spot prices has slowed down, and short - term long positions in the near - month contracts have taken profits. The expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US continues, and there is still significant pressure for oil price adjustments. Concerns include market sentiment, production start - up, demand, US soybean weather, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The import and crushing profit of soybeans has declined rapidly. Attention should be paid to the support at the integer - level mark for soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The decline of spot prices has slowed down, and futures prices have rebounded slightly. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Pigs**: Inventory pressure remains, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Prices are following the market sentiment and falling, with little change in its own situation. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Futures prices are following the decline of natural rubber. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Pulp**: Prices have been continuously declining, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the expected purchase price. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Sugar**: The short - term supply pressure has increased, and sugar prices continue to decline. Concerns include imports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Logs**: Delivery pressure remains high, and log prices are adjusting weakly. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The risk appetite in the market has been restored. The stock index futures showed a V-shaped rebound and are in high-level oscillations. The stock index options suggest continuing to hold bull spreads. The bond market curve of treasury bond futures is steepening [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The market outlook is oscillating with a bullish bias. The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed specific changes in basis, inter - period spreads, and positions. The market sentiment has been repaired, with a preference for technology - growth stocks. It is considered a bull - market oscillation, and dips are good opportunities to add positions. The recommended operation is to allocate IM long positions [7] Stock Index Options - The market outlook is oscillating. The option market turnover remained stable, and the mid - term sentiment is optimistic. The volatility of different varieties varies. It is recommended to continue holding bull spreads [2][8] Treasury Bond Futures - The market outlook is oscillating. The treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yield curve continued to steepen. The central bank's net injection supported the short - end of the bond market, while the long - end was under pressure. Short - term opportunities in long - end arbitrage and curve steepening can be focused on. Different strategies such as trend, hedging, basis, and curve strategies are recommended [8][9][10] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data from the US, China, and Japan, such as new home sales, house price indices, industrial enterprise profits, and unemployment claims [11] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The government released an opinion on promoting high - quality urban development, covering housing construction, community improvement, and urban renewal. Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered RMB deposit rates, and the deposit rates are still under downward pressure. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is involved in international economic and trade negotiations [12][13][14] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [15][19][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 28, equity indices rose, while CGB futures fell. Most commodities declined, with energy and chemical products seeing a significant drop [4][11][13]. - The top three gainers were apple, iron ore, and corn, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), lithium carbonate, and egg [11][12][13]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On August 28, equity indices rose, and CGB futures fell. Most commodities declined, with energy and chemical products having a significant drop. Apple, iron ore, and corn were the top three gainers, and SCFIS(Europe), lithium carbonate, and egg were the top three decliners [11][12][13]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Iron Ore**: On August 28, it increased by 1.7% to 790.5 yuan/ton. Demand remains high, supply and inventories are stable, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the subsequent period [17][19]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil & Steel Rebar**: On August 28, hot - rolled coil increased by 0.8% to 3385 yuan/ton, and steel rebar increased by 0.5% to 3129 yuan/ton. The off - season is ending, steel inventories are accumulating, and the market is cautious about peak - season demand. Short - term futures are expected to fluctuate widely, and future focus should be on mill production restrictions and end - user demand [23][24][27]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Lithium Carbonate**: On August 28, it decreased by 2.3% to 78140 yuan/ton. The emotional impact of mine suspension has ended, and the market is back in the game stage. There is a gradually emerging supply - demand gap, but high prices may stimulate supply release. Be cautious about extreme price movements and consider trading opportunities such as buying near - month contracts on pullbacks [32][35][36]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Li Chenggang, International Trade Negotiation Representative of MOFCOM, led a delegation to visit Canada from the 24th to the 27th and will then go to Washington to meet with relevant U.S. officials [41]. - By the end of July 2025, the total balance of local government debt across the country was RMB 52.7627 trillion, with an average remaining term of 10.3 years and an average interest rate of 2.90% [41]. - Bloomberg reported that Mexico may raise tariffs on some Chinese products in the 2026 budget proposal [41]. 2.2 Industry News - As of August 27, 3290 A - share listed companies have released their 2025 interim reports, and QFII appeared in the top 10 tradable shareholders of 663 companies. QFII increased its A - share allocation in Q2, with a持仓市值 of over 12 billion yuan in the electronics industry and over 5 billion yuan in the non - ferrous metals industry [42].