Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the financial market on May 27, 2025, including macro - indicators, commodity prices, and major policy news. It also offers trading suggestions for various commodities and analyzes the stock market situation. The overall market shows a complex trend with different performances in different sectors, and investors need to pay attention to various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations [2][7][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Tracking - **Macro - indicators**: On May 27, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was 41603.07, down 0.612% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index was 18737.21, down 0.996%; the S&P 500 was 5802.82, down 0.671%; the Hang Seng Index was 23282.33, down 1.351%. The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.51, down 3.770%, and the dollar index was 98.96, down 0.015% [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: In the international market, COMEX gold was 3342.20, down 0.462%, and NYMEX crude oil was 61.53, down 0.372%. In the domestic market, gold futures were 779.72, up 0.311%, and zinc futures were 22645.00, up 2.073%. Chemical products like methanol were 2188.00, down 1.619%, and fuel oil was 2976.00, down 2.009% [2][5]. 2. Macro - policy News - **Domestic Policies**: The central government issued multiple policies, including the "Opinions on Improving the Modern Enterprise System with Chinese Characteristics", aiming to improve the enterprise income distribution system; the "Accelerated Action Plan for the Development of Digital and Intelligent Supply Chains" to promote supply - chain development; and the start of the third - round and fourth - batch of central environmental protection inspections [7][8]. - **International News**: US President Trump agreed that the US does not need to bring back textile manufacturing and threatened to withdraw $3 billion in funding from Harvard University [9]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties - **Agricultural Products**: For peanuts, due to low supply and weak demand, it is not recommended to chase high prices. For oils, the market may continue weak adjustment. For sugar, it is recommended to buy low and sell high in the 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton range. For corn, it is advisable to short on rallies, and for eggs, there is short - term stability but medium - term pressure [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: For caustic soda, the price is expected to be temporarily firm, and the 2509 contract continues to operate at a low level. For urea, the price may continue to oscillate weakly, and the UR2509 contract should pay attention to the support at 1800 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industrial Metals**: For copper and aluminum, the prices continue to oscillate and consolidate due to overseas tariff risks. For alumina, the 2509 contract rebounds from a low level, and attention should be paid to the 3200 - 3300 yuan/ton pressure range. For steel products, they continue to show a weak and oscillating trend [13][14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has broken through the key support level, and it is recommended to short on rallies at the 62,000 yuan pressure level [16]. - **Option Finance**: The A - share market may be in a box - shaped oscillation pattern in the short term. For option investors, trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddle options after the volatility drops [18][20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand structure of the steel industry has weakened on a month - on - month basis, and steel prices are under downward pressure. The market is affected by factors such as overseas tariff threats and domestic policy vacuums, with a focus on the changes in the industrial supply - demand structure. The destocking of the five major steel products has slowed down, and the prices of raw materials have declined, dragging down the prices of finished products [3]. - The prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke are also under downward pressure. The supply of iron ore has a potential increase, while demand is weakening. For coking coal and coke, the market is weak due to factors such as reduced mine开工率, low transaction rates, and the expectation of a second price cut for coke [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As the domestic macro - policy entered a vacuum period, the market focus returned to the industrial fundamentals. The five major steel products continued to destock, but the destocking slowed down. With the approaching of the rainy season, the market was hesitant. After the first price cut of coke, the cost reduction further dragged down the steel price [9]. - The prices of various steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke in the spot and futures markets generally showed a downward trend, and there were also corresponding changes in positions, basis, spreads, and inventories [10]. 3.2 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National weekly production of rebar increased to 226.53 tons (month - on - month +1.34%, year - on - year - 3.02%), and that of hot - rolled coil decreased to 311.98 tons (month - on - month - 2.62%, year - on - year - 3.91%). The production of both blast furnace and electric furnace rebar increased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly to 83.69% (month - on - month - 0.55%, year - on - year +2.69%), while the electric furnace operating rate increased to 77.18% (month - on - month +2.63%, year - on - year +5.15%) [16][18][28]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit shrank to +88 yuan/ton (week - on - week - 14.56%, year - on - year - 46.99%), and hot - rolled coil profit improved on a month - on - month basis to +40 yuan/ton (week - on - week +29.03%, year - on - year - 54.55%) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption decreased to 247.13 tons (month - on - month - 5.06%, year - on - year - 1.11%), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption decreased to 313.06 tons (month - on - month - 4.99%, year - on - year - 4.51%). The 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.53 tons (month - on - month - 13.33%, year - on - year - 32.27%) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory decreased to 604.22 tons (month - on - month - 2.52%, year - on - year - 22.94%), with the decline slowing down, the factory inventory slightly increasing, and the social inventory continuing to decline. Hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased to 340.19 tons (month - on - month - 2.12%, year - on - year - 17.66%), with both factory and social inventories decreasing [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 9.81% month - on - month and 0.19% year - on - year, while the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.20% month - on - month and 40.61% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in April 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, down 12.9% and 11.2% month - on - month but up 8.9% and 9.8% year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipping volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased to 2729.2 tons (month - on - month +0.85%, year - on - year - 0.75%), and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased to 2151.3 tons (month - on - month - 5.28%, year - on - year - 11.25%). The iron ore price index was 99.58 (month - on - month - 2.57%, year - on - year - 16.86%) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased to 243.6 tons (month - on - month - 1.17 tons, year - on - year +6.8 tons), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports increased to 327.09 tons (month - on - month +0.99%, year - on - year +12.13%). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.57 days (month - on - month - 0.03%, year - on - year - 8.34%) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased to 13987.83 tons (month - on - month - 1.26%, year - on - year - 5.87%), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 8925.48 tons (month - on - month - 0.40%, year - on - year - 4.43%). The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 22.94 days (month - on - month - 3.57%, year - on - year +2.55%) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines decreased to 86.3% (month - on - month - 3.32%, year - on - year - 1.19%), the operating rate of coal washing plants increased to 62.36% (month - on - month +0.45%, year - on - year - 8.71%), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased to 15.93 tons (month - on - month +2.97%, year - on - year - 10.20%) [77]. - **Transaction Rate**: The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 61.01% (week - on - week +17.01%, year - on - year - 39%), and the weekly transaction rate was 59.98% (week - on - week - 2.09%, year - on - year +7.74%) [79]. - **Coking Enterprise Situation**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 15 yuan/ton (month - on - month - 22 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 49 yuan/ton), and the capacity utilization rate was 75.18% (month - on - month - 0.07%, year - on - year +3.10%). The capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 75.87% [85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants decreased to 737.89 tons (month - on - month - 1.93%, year - on - year - 3.85%), the steel mill coking coal inventory increased to 798.58 tons (month - on - month +0.96%, year - on - year +6.15%), and the coking coal port inventory decreased to 301.56 tons (month - on - month - 1.48%, year - on - year +31.40%) [91]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants increased to 73.1 tons (month - on - month +11.70%, year - on - year +58.19%), the steel enterprise coke inventory decreased to 660.59 tons (month - on - month - 0.48%, year - on - year +18.26%), and the coke port inventory decreased to 223.10 tons (month - on - month - 0.90%, year - on - year +5.09%) [97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of coking coal is weakening, and the first price cut of coke has been implemented. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1230 yuan/ton (week - on - week - 20 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 720 yuan/ton), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1150 yuan/ton (month - on - month - 50 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 650 yuan/ton) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has widened, and the spread between the 10 - 01 contracts of rebar has slightly widened. The 9 - 01 spread of iron ore has slightly shrunk, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has fluctuated within a narrow range [105][111].

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（92）期 发布日期：2025-05-26 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/5/26 08:00 | 2025/5/23 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 41603.07 | 41859.09 | -256.020 | -0.612 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 18737.21 | 18925.73 | -188.520 | -0.996 | | 标普500 | | 5802.82 | 5842.01 | -39.190 | -0.671 | | 恒生指数 | | 23601.26 | 23544.31 | 56.950 | 0.242 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.57 | 1.47 | 0.10 | 6.826 | | 美元指数 | | 99.07 | 99.12 | -0.058 | -0.058 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.19 | 7.19 | 0 | 0 | | 主力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial markets, including macro - indicators, commodity futures, and stock indices. It provides daily market tracking data, macro - economic news, and morning views on major varieties, aiming to help investors understand market trends and potential investment opportunities [2][6][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro - indicators**: On May 22, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped 1.914% to 41860.44, the Nasdaq Index fell 1.411% to 18872.64, and the S&P 500 declined 1.614% to 5844.61. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.618% to 23827.78. SHIBOR overnight remained unchanged at 1.51, the dollar index increased 0.038% to 99.64, and the dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) rate stayed at 7.21 [2]. - **Foreign and Domestic Futures**: COMEX gold rose 0.729% to 3316.60, COMEX silver increased 0.947% to 33.58. Among domestic metals, silver rose 0.157% to 8285.00, while copper fell 0.423% to 77770.00. In the energy sector, NYMEX crude dropped 1.462% to 61.34, and ICE Brent oil fell 1.555% to 64.58 [2]. 2. Macro - economic News - **Policy Support**: Eight departments including the Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing, aiming to increase loan issuance and regulate lending fees [6]. - **International Trade**: China supports 33 least - developed African countries to use the 100% tariff - free policy, with imports from these countries reaching $21.42 billion from December 1 last year to March this year, a 15.2% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Domestic Economy**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 142 basis points on May 21. Some regions in China introduced policies to support housing consumption and promote regional economic development [7]. 3. Morning Views on Major Varieties - **Agricultural Products**: Peanut prices are strong due to factors like the farming season, but traders' purchasing enthusiasm is low. The oil market is expected to be volatile. Sugar presents a mixed fundamental situation, and corn is in a supply - demand weak pattern [10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The caustic soda market is expected to see a slight price increase in the short term. The urea market may continue to fluctuate at a high level [12]. - **Industrial Metals**: Copper and aluminum face upward pressure. Alumina prices are expected to be strong. Steel products are in a low - level range - bound state. Ferroalloys have a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure [13][15]. - **Options and Finance**: A - share indices rose on May 21. The global stock market was mostly down on Wednesday. The real - estate market is in a downward trend, and investors should focus on structural opportunities in the market [15].

1. Market Index Performance 1.1 Global Stock Indices - The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 331.99 points (0.784%) to 42,654.74 [2]. - The Nasdaq Index increased by 98.78 points (0.517%) to 19,211.10 [2]. - The S&P 500 climbed 41.45 points (0.701%) to 5,958.38 [2]. - The Hang Seng Index fell 108.11 points (-0.461%) to 23,345.05 [2]. 1.2 Other Macro - indicators - SHIBOR overnight rose 0.25 to 1.65, a 17.806% increase [2]. - The US Dollar Index dropped 0.244 points (-0.241%) to 100.74 [2]. - The US Dollar to RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.20 [2]. 1.3 Commodity Futures (International) - COMEX Gold decreased by $38.60 (-1.190%) to $3,205.30 [2]. - COMEX Silver fell $0.36 (-1.098%) to $32.43 [2]. - LME Copper declined $137 (-1.431%) to $9,440.00 [2]. 1.3 Commodity Futures (Domestic) - Gold futures dropped 2.80 (-0.372%) to 749.00 [2]. - Silver futures fell 8.0 (-0.099%) to 8093.00 [2]. - Copper futures decreased 470.0 (-0.601%) to 77670.00 [2]. 1.4 Energy and Chemical Futures (Domestic) - Crude oil futures rose 6.30 (1.381%) to 462.50 [4]. - Fuel oil futures increased 19.0 (0.636%) to 3008.00 [4]. - Natural rubber futures dropped 55.0 (-0.369%) to 14850.00 [4]. 1.5 Agricultural Futures (Domestic) - Yellow soybean No.1 futures rose 17.0 (0.408%) to 4185.00 [4]. - White sugar futures fell 14.0 (-0.239%) to 5841.00 [4]. - Cotton No.1 futures dropped 10.0 (-0.075%) to 13380.00 [4]. 2. Macro - economic News 2.1 Domestic News - Central bank officials support Beijing's financial development, including promoting RMB internationalization and strengthening the Beijing Stock Exchange [7]. - China's domestic refined oil prices are expected to drop by about 230 yuan/ton on May 19 [7]. - China - US freight volume has recovered after mutual tariff cuts, and US business cooperation is increasing [7]. - China aims to grow its data industry to 7.5 trillion yuan by 2030 and build a data infrastructure system by 2029 [8]. - China will impose anti - dumping duties on imported copolymerized polyoxymethylene from the US, EU, Taiwan region, and Japan starting May 19 [8]. - China's cold - chain logistics showed growth in Q1 2025, with a 4.0% increase in total value and a 3.9% increase in revenue [8]. 2.2 International News - US President Trump urges the Fed to cut interest rates and criticizes Fed Chair Powell [9]. - US Treasury Secretary responds to Moody's downgrade of US credit rating and plans to attend a G7 meeting [9]. 3. Morning Views on Main Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: Suggest trading in the 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton range, with a key support at 5830 yuan/ton [12]. - Corn: Maintain a short - selling strategy, watch for a break below 2300 yuan/ton [12]. - Eggs: Consider short - selling, with a focus on the price range and potential support [12]. - Hogs: Hold short positions, and use pre - holiday rebounds for shorting [12]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda: Expect stable prices in East China with local fluctuations [14]. - Urea: The market may continue high - level oscillations, with opportunities for positive spreads [14]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: Prices rebounded but faced resistance at previous gaps [14]. - Alumina: Prices are expected to be strong, with a focus on the 3100 - 3200 yuan/ton resistance [14]. 3.4 Others - Steel products: Steel prices may fluctuate at low levels, with specific price ranges for different products [16]. - Ferroalloys: Prices are expected to oscillate at low levels [16]. - Coking coal and coke: Continue weak oscillations in the short term [16]. - Lithium carbonate: Hold short positions, watch for potential technical rebounds [16]. 3.5 Options and Finance - Stock indices: The market is likely to be volatile, with specific trading strategies for futures and options [17][18]. 4. Research Analysts 4.1 Agricultural Products - Li Na (F3060165, Z0016368) and Liu Sikui (F3033884, Z0011291) [22]. 4.2 Industrial Products - Liu Peiyang (F0290318, Z0011155), Peng Bohan (F3076814, Z0016415), and Lin Na (F03099603, Z0020978) [22]. 4.3 Options and Finance - Ding Wen (F3066473, Z0014838) and Li Weihong (F0231193, Z0017182) [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the daily market tracking data of commodity indices, including the performance of macro - indicators,主力合约 of various commodities, and provides morning meeting viewpoints on major varieties, as well as macro - economic news [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro - indicators**: On May 15, 2025, compared with the previous day, the Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 0.212% to 42051.06, the Nasdaq Index increased by 0.719% to 19146.81, the S&P 500 increased by 0.102% to 5892.58, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.304% to 23640.65, SHIBOR overnight decreased by 0.071% to 1.41, the US dollar index decreased by 0.120% to 100.96, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.21 [2]. - **主力合约**: COMEX gold decreased by 2.268% to 3180.70, COMEX silver decreased by 2.115% to 32.39, LME copper decreased by 0.078% to 9592.00, LME aluminum increased by 1.305% to 2522.50, LME zinc increased by 2.089% to 2761.50, LME lead increased by 0.176% to 1992.50, LME tin increased by 0.516% to 32890.00, LME nickel increased by 0.413% to 15800.00, ICE11 -号 sugar decreased by 0.550% to 18.08, ICE2 -号 cotton decreased by 1.295% to 65.55, CBOT soybeans increased by 0.093% to 1076.00, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.545% to 292.00, CBOT soybean oil increased by 1.065% to 52.20, CBOT corn increased by 0.508% to 444.75, NYMEX crude oil decreased by 1.163% to 62.89, and ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.126% to 65.85 [2]. - **Domestic commodities**: For metals, gold decreased by 1.712% to 748.68, silver decreased by 1.342% to 8085.00, copper decreased by 0.367% to 78650.00, zinc increased by 0.396% to 22800.00, aluminum increased by 0.074% to 20255.00, tin decreased by 0.109% to 265480.00, lead increased by 0.531% to 17025.00, nickel increased by 0.248% to 125540.00, iron ore increased by 0.068% to 737.50, alumina increased by 1.154% to 2979.00, rebar decreased by 0.256% to 3119.00, stainless steel decreased by 0.115% to 13065.00, and hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.337% to 3256.00 [2]. - **Domestic chemical products**: Coke decreased by 0.270% to 1478.00, natural rubber decreased by 0.328% to 15185.00, 20 -号 rubber decreased by 0.384% to 12985.00, plastic increased by 0.177% to 7352.00, polypropylene PP decreased by 0.097% to 7186.00, (PTA) decreased by 0.082% to 4870.00, asphalt decreased by 0.142% to 3516.00, methanol decreased by 0.507% to 2353.00, ethylene glycol decreased by 0.289% to 4493.00, styrene increased by 1.214% to 7840.00, glass decreased by 0.860% to 1037.00, crude oil decreased by 0.411% to 484.60, fuel oil decreased by 0.033% to 3056.00, soda ash decreased by 0.595% to 1337.00, pulp remained unchanged at 5378.00, caustic soda decreased by 0.237% to 2524.00, PX decreased by 0.058% to 6876.00, and LPG decreased by 0.735% to 4324.00 [4]. - **Domestic agricultural products**: Yellow soybean 1 increased by 0.216% to 4183.00, yellow soybean 2 decreased by 0.560% to 3552.00, soybean meal decreased by 0.549% to 2898.00, rapeseed meal decreased by 0.399% to 2499.00, soybean oil decreased by 0.202% to 7898.00, rapeseed oil decreased by 0.064% to 9432.00, palm oil decreased by 0.098% to 8176.00, white sugar decreased by 0.305% to 5888.00, yellow corn decreased by 0.382% to 2347.00, corn starch decreased by 0.259% to 2695.00, No.1 cotton increased by 0.074% to 13455.00, and cotton yarn decreased by 0.152% to 19745.00 [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - China's counter - measures against the US fentanyl - related tariffs remain in effect. The US imposed two rounds of tariffs on China under the pretext of fentanyl, and China took counter - measures in a timely manner [7]. - To implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks, China has suspended the inclusion of 28 US entities in the export control list and 17 US entities in the unreliable entity list for 90 days starting from May 14. The US has adjusted its tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the tariffs and implementing 34% of reciprocal tariffs, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. It has also adjusted the tax on small - value parcels [7]. - In April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, accelerating from the previous month. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of new corporate loans was about 3.2%, about 4 basis points lower than the previous month [8]. - China's first comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut in 2025 has taken effect. Starting from May 15, the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions has been lowered by 0.5 percentage points (excluding those already implementing a 5% reserve requirement ratio), and the reserve requirement ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies has been lowered by 5 percentage points, expected to inject about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the market [8]. - Seven departments, including the central bank and the financial regulatory authority, have jointly issued a document proposing 15 policy measures to promote the development of science and technology finance in seven aspects, providing full - life - cycle and full - chain financial services for scientific and technological innovation [8]. - The director of the National Development and Reform Commission has held a symposium for private enterprises, stating that existing policies will be promoted to take effect earlier, and incremental policies will be studied and reserved according to the situation [9]. - On Wednesday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2083 at 16:30, down 71 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.2090 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 35 basis points to 7.1956, the highest since April 3 [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is relatively stable, with oil mills' demand providing some support. There are few topics for speculation. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - **Oils and fats**: About 15% of the US soybean - growing areas are affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week. Argentina has raised its forecast for the 2024/25 soybean harvest. The external oil market lacks strong support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - **Sugar**: On May 14, the sugar futures contract closed at 5906 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. The supply in Brazil has decreased significantly, while domestic demand is strong. However, the opening of the import profit window may bring pressure. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, with resistance at 5950 yuan/ton and support at 5850 yuan/ton [11]. - **Corn**: On May 14, the corn futures contract closed at 2356 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The supply in the northern ports is decreasing, but wheat substitution suppresses demand. It is recommended to maintain a short - term bearish view, with support at 2340 yuan/ton [11]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price is stable with a slight decline. The supply exceeds demand, and the consumption is weak. The futures contract is oscillating at the bottom of the range. It is recommended to operate intraday [11]. - **Eggs**: The national egg spot price is stable. Food factories' demand for the Dragon Boat Festival is increasing, but the trade volume is decreasing. The egg price has limited room for further increase, and the medium - term capacity pressure remains [11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic soda**: The supply in Shandong is narrowing, but non - aluminum industries' demand is cautious. The 2509 contract has rebounded [13]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price is stable, with high daily production. The inventory has decreased significantly. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is decreasing seasonally, while agricultural demand is increasing. The market may continue to oscillate at a high level [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum have been boosted by the progress of China - US negotiations. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous gap positions [13]. - **Alumina**: Some alumina plants have maintenance and production - reduction plans, and new production capacity is ramping up. The cost has decreased, and the 2509 contract has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 3000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: The spot market has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The steel prices are expected to continue to rebound, with resistance at 3150 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [14]. - **Silicon iron and silicon manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are stable. The steel mills' pressure on prices is obvious. The two products may rebound slightly, with resistance at 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton for silicon iron and 6000 yuan/ton for silicon manganese [14]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The coking coal market is weak, and the coke price is under pressure. The two products are stable in the short term but remain relatively weak [14]. - **Lithium carbonate**: On May 14, the futures contract closed at 65200 yuan/ton, up 3%. The supply has decreased, but the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see the effectiveness of the breakthrough, with resistance at 68000 yuan/ton and support at 63500 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: On May 14, the three major A - share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points. The trading volume was 1.35 trillion yuan. The futures indices of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 all rose with increased positions and volume. The PCR of option trading volume decreased, while the PCR of option positions increased, and the implied volatility increased. Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles after the volatility decreases [17].

Report Title - Macro atmosphere rebounds, steel prices rebound from lows - Weekly Report 20250512 [1] Core Views - The implementation of the "package of financial policies" by the State Council Information Office and the substantial progress in the China - US talks have boosted market confidence, and the macro atmosphere has improved. After the holiday, affected by factors, the inventory of the five major steel products has increased. It is expected that the demand will improve on a low - base basis in the week after the holiday, and steel prices will be supported at low levels and show a phased rebound [3]. - The supply of iron ore shows a phased contraction, and the iron ore supply - demand structure has improved, which, combined with the warming macro - atmosphere, leads to a phased rebound of the black series after over - decline. The main iron ore contract should pay attention to the pressure around 730 - 750 [4]. - After the holiday, the overall supply of coking coal remains in a loose pattern, and the online auction turnover rate is still low. The profit of coking enterprises has been repaired, but the second - round price increase of coke has been shelved. With the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, it is stable in the short - term at low levels and should be treated with an oscillatory view [5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - After the holiday, with the implementation of macro - policy expectations, the market returned to the supply - demand fundamentals. Affected by the holiday, the demand for the five major steel products declined significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, the market pessimism rose, the futures prices fell significantly, the spot prices decreased synchronously, and the basis widened [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: The national weekly rebar production was 223.53 tons (down 4.22% month - on - month and 3.07% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil production was 320.38 tons (up 0.34% month - on - month and down 1.46% year - on - year). The production of both blast - furnace and electric - furnace rebar decreased [15][17][18]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast - furnace operating rate remained stable at 84.62% (up 0.34 month - on - month and 4.99% year - on - year), and the electric - furnace operating rate slightly decreased to 72.73% (down 0.27% month - on - month and up 13.32% year - on - year) [23][27]. - **Profit**: The profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils shrank month - on - month. The rebar profit was + 90 yuan/ton (down 29.69% week - on - week and 24.37% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil profit was + 30 yuan/ton (down 39.47 week - on - week and 58.93% year - on - year) [28][31]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 213.9 tons (down 26.67% month - on - month and 26.32% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 309.53 tons (down 6.97% month - on - month and 4.20% year - on - year). The demand for rebar declined significantly, and the demand for hot - rolled coils also decreased [32][36]. - **Inventory**: The total rebar inventory was 653.63 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 26% year - on - year), with the factory inventory increasing and the social inventory decreasing. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 365.12 tons (up 3.06% month - on - month and down 13.37% year - on - year), with the factory inventory slightly decreasing and the social inventory increasing [37][40][41]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 0.89% month - on - month and decreased by 18.97% year - on - year, and the transaction land area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 12.36% month - on - month and 58.37% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2% [46][49][52]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 97.82 (up 0.64% month - on - month and down 15.95% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2422.5 tons (down 4.64% month - on - month and 0.95% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2354.6 tons (down 3.88% month - on - month and up 9.70% year - on - year) [55][60]. - **Demand**: The daily pig - iron output was 245.64 tons (up 0.22 tons month - on - month and 6.39 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.21 tons (down 5.01% month - on - month and up 5.95% year - on - year). The inventory - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.48 days (down 3.94% month - on - month and 9.60% year - on - year) [61][65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 14238.71 tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and 3.83% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8958.98 tons (down 4.03% month - on - month and 3.91% year - on - year) [66][71]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The coking coal mine operating rate was 89.92% (up 0.20% month - on - month and 3.26% year - on - year), the coal - washing plant operating rate was 62.42% (down 0.87% month - on - month and 2.62% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 13.37 tons (up 63.10% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [73][77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was + 1 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month and 62 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 75.05% (down 0.50% month - on - month and up 4.29% year - on - year) [81][85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 775.13 tons (down 4.33% month - on - month and up 7.69% year - on - year), the steel - mill coking coal inventory was 787.41 tons (up 0.36 month - on - month and 6.33% year - on - year), and the port coking coal inventory was 297.81 tons (down 4.48% month - on - month and up 30.91% year - on - year) [86][91]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 65.09 tons (down 2.94% month - on - month and up 43.53% year - on - year), the steel - mill coke inventory was 671.03 tons (down 0.62% month - on - month and up 20.53% year - on - year), and the port coke inventory was 229.08 tons (down 3.80% month - on - month and up 2.97% year - on - year) [92][97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week and 780 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month and down 700 yuan/ton year - on - year) [98][103]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened, and the 10 - 1 spread also widened. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke widened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread widened in the short - term [105][110]

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 碳酸锂市场加速下行，基差扩大叠加库存压 力 --碳酸锂周报2025-05-09 作 者：刘培洋 研 究 助 理 ：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 联 系 方 式：0371-58620083 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂周跌1.72%至65700元/吨，工业级跌1.77%，基差周 | 短期价格或测试 | | | | 60000元/吨整数 | | | 环比激增88.73%至2680元/吨，现货升水结构强化。 | 关口，关注江西 | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约暴跌3.43%至63020元/吨，持仓量逆势增13.27%，波动率 | | | | | 云母提锂成本支 | | | 929显示空头主导。 | | | | 【供应方面】：4月全国产量环比降14.81%，江西锂云母路线同比大增97.06%，青 | 撑力度。 | | | | 风险提示： | | | 海盐湖产量环比增8.33%。 | 1.仓单注 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The release of the joint statement of the China-US economic and trade high-level talks has significantly improved the market sentiment. The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, and many sectors are expected to benefit. The market risk preference has increased, but there are still uncertainties in the future, and investors need to remain cautious [7][18]. Summary by Directory Macro News - The China-US economic and trade high-level talks jointly released a statement, with both sides agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US will cancel 91% of the additional tariffs, and China will cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs. Both sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [6]. - China has launched a special campaign to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals for export and will organize a series of actions. The export control of strategic minerals is crucial for national security and development [6]. - The Minister of Commerce hosted a round - table meeting with foreign trade enterprises, stating that the Ministry will work with relevant departments to help foreign trade enterprises solve difficulties and promote the stable development of foreign trade [6]. - On May 12, the A - share market rose strongly, with over 4100 stocks rising. The macro - economic situation has improved, and the market is optimistic about the export and technology sectors [7]. - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy applications have exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy applications for automobile trade - in reached 3.225 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 53% [7]. - The Bank of China and other departments have issued the "30 Financial Measures for Nansha, Guangzhou" to strengthen financial support for Nansha's construction [8]. - The acquisition of autumn grain in 2024 has been completed, with a cumulative acquisition of 345 million tons, a relatively high level in recent years [8] Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is relatively stable, and the market has entered the stage of speculation on planting area. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - Oils and Fats: The external market lacks strong support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - Sugar: The Brazilian new - crop season has a good start, but the domestic consumption is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips near the support level of 5860 yuan/ton [11]. - Corn: The fundamentals are mixed. It is recommended to go long on dips near the support level of 2350 yuan/ton [11]. - Hogs: The spot price is stable with a weak trend. The futures market is mainly for intraday trading, and beware of basis repair [11][13]. - Eggs: The spot price is rising slightly, but there is still pressure in the medium - term. The futures market follows the spot [13]. Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic spot price is strong. The market may continue to fluctuate at a high level, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunities [13]. - Caustic Soda: The supply is narrowing, and the market sentiment is warming up. The 2509 contract rebounds [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply of coking coal is relatively sufficient, and the spot price may still decline. Due to the improvement of the macro - environment, the double - coking market is stable for the time being [13]. Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Affected by the China - US talks, copper and aluminum are boosted. Pay attention to the pressure at the previous gap [13][14]. - Alumina: The spot price is relatively strong, and the 2509 contract repairs the discount. Pay attention to the pressure at 2900 yuan/ton [14]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The macro - news is positive, and the market demand is improving. The steel price is expected to continue to rebound [14]. - Ferroalloys: Due to the expansion of production cuts in Ningxia and the improvement of the macro - environment, the double - silicon market rebounds and fluctuates in a range [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold short positions near the key pressure level of 64,500 yuan/ton [14][16]. Options and Finance - Stock Index: The trade tension is relieved, and the market may continue to rebound. Focus on the technology sector and pay attention to the opportunities of high - to - low switching between sectors [18][19]. - Options: The A - share market is strong, and the implied volatility of options rises. Trend investors should defend, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles to go long on volatility [20].

晨会纪要 中原期货研究所 2025 第（82）期 发布日期：2025-05-12 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/5/12 | 2025/5/9 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 869.00 | 877.50 | -8.50 | -0.969 | | | 焦炭 | 1,441.00 | 1,446.50 | -5.50 | -0.380 | | | 天然橡胶 | 14,560.00 | 14,620.00 | -60.0 | -0.410 | | | 20号胶 | 12,310.00 | 12,415.00 | -105.0 | -0.846 | | | 塑料 | 6,960.00 | 6,976.00 | -1 ...