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新世纪期货交易提示(2025-6-9)-20250609
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 06:36
交易提示 交易咨询:0571-85165192,85058093 2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示(2025-6-9) | | | | | 铁矿:本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升,主流矿山发运量保持平稳回升 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 万吨至 | | | | 态势,需求端铁水产量环比回落 0.1 241.8 万吨,连续四周下行, | | | | | | 基本面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库,说明当前 240 的高铁水 | | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹抛空 | 仍旧能驱动港口去库,关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁 | | | | | | 关税至 50%,资金和情绪端表现出偏空,关注市场对关税的消化反应以及 | | | | | | 减产的推进程度,短期受煤焦带动呈现反弹走势,策略上,前期空单建议 | | | | | | 继续持有,情绪性反弹可酌情加仓。 | | | | | | 煤焦:部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产,但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | | 弱需求格局难以缓解。焦煤产量高位,下游补库动力不足,52 ...
集运日报:CMA下调线上6月中下旬运价,多空博弈越激烈,盘面大幅震荡,风险偏好者可考虑轻仓逢高试空-20250606
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 08:54
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes the container shipping market, highlighting factors such as CMA's price cut, fluctuations in freight rate indices, the impact of the US court ruling on the Trump administration, and the need to monitor multiple factors including spot freight rates, tariff policies, and the final ruling result. It also provides short - term, arbitrage, and long - term trading strategies [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Rate Indices - On June 2, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1252.82 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1718.11 points, down 0.1% [3]. - On May 30, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1676.25 points, up 51.55% from the previous period; the European route was 1067.59 points, up 36.25%; the US West route was 3585.23 points, up 89.23% [3]. - On May 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 2072.71 points, up 486.59 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1587 USD/TEU, up 20.50%; the US West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 57.92% [3]. - On May 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1117.61 points, up 0.9% from the previous period; the European route was 1375.62 points, down 1.2%; the US West route was 944.06 points, up 4.0% [3]. Market Analysis - CMA cut the online freight rates for the second half of June, leading to intense long - short competition and significant market fluctuations. Risk - preferring investors can consider lightly shorting at high prices [2]. - The US court's ruling on the Trump administration may boost the macro - sentiment, but the spot market remains weak. There may be a rush - shipping situation due to the potential easing of the Sino - US trade war in 90 days. Attention should be paid to the final result of the court ruling, the 90 - day spot freight rate range, and the terminal demand feedback under the tariff policy easing [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the basis - narrowing logic. For the 2508 contract, when it rebounds above 2250, it is recommended to lightly short with a stop - loss set [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern. Currently, focus on the court ruling result and mainly adopt a positive - spread structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high level, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent trend [4]. Contract Information - On June 5, the main contract 2508 closed at 2146.3, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 73,400 lots and an open interest of 47,300 lots, a decrease of 707 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 was adjusted to 16% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 was adjusted to 26% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]. Other Information - The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 48.9, and composite PMI was 49.5. The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [3]. - The May Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [3]. - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3, service PMI was 52.3, and composite PMI was 52.1 [3]. - China has added over 100 international air freight routes as of the end of May this year, with 26 new routes in May. The new routes are mainly in Asia and Europe, and the main cargo types include cross - border e - commerce goods, electronics, etc. [5].
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-6-6)-20250606
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 08:26
Group 1: Iron Ore - The total global iron ore shipments increased this period, with mainstream mines' shipments steadily rising. Iron - making molten iron production decreased by 0.1 million tons to 2.418 million tons, dropping for four consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand situation is gradually loosening. Port inventories are still decreasing, and it's necessary to monitor the continuous decline of molten iron production. Trump raised steel tariffs to 50%, making the capital and sentiment bearish. The market's reaction to tariffs and the progress of production cuts should be watched. In the short term, it shows a rebound driven by coal and coke. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and add positions during emotional rebounds [2]. Group 2: Coal and Coke - There are rumors that Mongolia will impose a 20% resource tax on coal exports, and some coal mines in China's Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions have stopped or reduced production due to completing monthly production tasks, causing the coal - coke futures to rise significantly. However, coking coal production is at a high level, downstream replenishment motivation is weak, and the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. With the decline of molten iron production and the continuous increase of coking coal supply, the fundamentals are hard to improve. For coke, as coking coal prices fall, coking enterprises' costs decrease, and most are in a profitable state. Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts for coking enterprises, which will shrink their profits. With the arrival of the high - temperature and plum - rain season, downstream demand weakens, steel mills control production more, and coking enterprises' inventory pressure increases. The overall inventory of coke has increased month - on - month, and the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2]. Group 3: Rebar - Trump raised steel tariffs to 50%, weakening the sentiment in the black market. Steel mills' profits are still good, and blast furnaces under maintenance are resuming production, so supply remains high. Construction demand is affected by capital and the plum - rain season, and terminal demand is poor. External demand for exports has been over - consumed in advance, and domestic demand in the manufacturing industries such as automobiles and home appliances has declined seasonally. Real estate investment has declined across the board, and overall demand is unlikely to show an off - season increase. With no increase in annual total demand, a pattern of high - early and low - late will form. The total steel inventory is continuously decreasing, but the decline has slowed down. In June, there will be dual pressures of high production and weak off - season demand, coupled with the negative macro sentiment caused by increased steel tariffs. Overall, rebar prices are more likely to fall than rise [2]. Group 4: Glass - There is no substantial positive news for the glass fundamentals, but the futures market has rebounded due to environmental production restrictions. The operating rate of the float glass industry is 76.01%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68%. The average capacity utilization rate is 78.62%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points compared to the 22nd, and daily production has increased by 0.51% to 157,500 tons, reaching a five - week high. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises has decreased by 0.46% month - on - month to 67.769 million heavy cases, falling from a two - month high for the first time. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, the housing completion area has decreased by 28.2% year - on - year, and glass demand is difficult to increase significantly. As it transitions from the peak season to the off - season, there is a lack of upward momentum in the fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [2]. Group 5: Financial Futures and Bonds - In the previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.23%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.05%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.54%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.72%. Funds flowed into the Internet and communication equipment sectors, and out of the daily chemical and soft drink sectors. After the Geneva talks, China has implemented the agreement seriously, and the US should cancel negative measures against China. The two sides should strengthen exchanges in various fields. China's Caixin Services PMI in May was 51.1, up 0.4 percentage points from April, indicating an accelerated expansion of the service industry. New service orders increased in May, the employment index reached a six - month high, and market confidence improved slightly, but enterprises' profitability is under pressure. The manufacturing PMI and export data reflect China's economic resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. For bonds, the yield of the 10 - year Chinese government bond remained flat, FR007 decreased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 126.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 5, with an operating rate of 1.40%. A total of 266 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan. Market interest rates are consolidating, and government bonds are rebounding slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in government bonds lightly [2][4]. Group 6: Precious Metals - In the context of a high - interest - rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for six consecutive months since November last year. The logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest - rate policy and tariff policy may be short - term disturbing factors. It is expected that this year's interest - rate policy will be more cautious, and changes in tariff policy and geopolitical conflicts will dominate market risk - aversion sentiment. According to the latest US data, the labor market is relatively strong, inflation data has slowed down, but inflation may rise again under the influence of tariffs. In the short term, trade tensions have eased, risk - aversion demand has weakened, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the non - farm payroll data. Gold is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Silver is expected to fluctuate strongly [4][6]. Group 7: Pulp and Logs - The spot market price of pulp was stable in the previous trading day. The latest FOB price of softwood pulp decreased by $30 to $740 per ton, and the latest FOB price of hardwood pulp was not quoted. The decline in cost prices weakens the support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper - making industry is at a low level, paper mills' inventories are accumulating, and their acceptance of high - price pulp is low. Demand has entered the off - season, which is negative for pulp prices. Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports last week was 62,800 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 700 cubic meters. The downstream has entered the off - season, but the easing of exports may make up for part of the off - season gap. It is expected that the average daily shipment volume will remain at around 60,000 cubic meters. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in March was 1.659 million cubic meters, a 32% increase from the previous month. New Zealand has started to reduce production, and log shipments are decreasing. It is expected that the volume of logs arriving in China will start to decrease. The expected arrival volume this week is 339,000 cubic meters, a 21% month - on - month decrease. As of last week, the log inventory at ports was 3.41 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 cubic meters. The spot market price is stable. In the short term, the spot market price is stable, demand has improved month - on - month, the arrival volume has increased month - on - month but is lower than the average level, and supply pressure has eased. The fundamentals of logs have improved, and log prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 8: Oils and Fats - Southeast Asian palm oil is in a seasonal production - increasing cycle. Although the export demand for Malaysian palm oil is strong, due to increased production, Malaysian palm oil inventories are expected to rise for the third consecutive month, possibly reaching the highest level since September last year. Recently, the cost - effectiveness of palm oil has recovered, and India's reduction of import tariffs will increase import demand, providing support for palm oil prices. The B40 policy in Indonesia is undecided, and attention should be paid to changes in Malaysian palm oil production and inventories. China's rapeseed oil inventory is at a multi - year high, and the easing of China - Canada relations is releasing the original supply pressure in the rapeseed oil market. South American soybeans have achieved a record harvest. Domestic soybean oil inventory is increasing rapidly due to a large amount of South American soybeans arriving in China and high - pressure oil - pressing by oil mills. Although domestic palm oil inventory is low, it is suppressed by the production - increasing cycle of palm oil in the producing areas. Currently, oils and fats are in the traditional off - season for consumption. Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6][8]. Group 9: Meal and Grains - The phone call between Chinese and US leaders has boosted the overall grain market. The drought in the US Midwest is gradually easing, but some weather forecasts indicate that warm and dry weather may occur in mid - June, which may threaten newly - sown soybeans. The inventory of new - crop US soybeans may become even tighter, leaving less room for error for US soybeans, whose sown area is already expected to decline. Brazilian soybeans are having a bumper harvest and accelerating exports, and the yield per unit of Argentine soybeans is expected to exceed expectations, but the harvesting work is delayed. In June, the volume of soybeans arriving in China will surge by about 11 million tons, and customs clearance has accelerated recently. The soybean supply situation has become looser, the operating rate of oil mills has generally recovered to over 50%, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing. Demand is rigid. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the weather in North America, Brazilian logistics delays, and the arrival of soybeans [8]. Group 10: Livestock - The price of live pigs has shown a volatile pattern of first falling, then rising, and then falling again, with the weekly average price showing a slight decline. Last week, the average trading price of ternary live pigs was 14.46 yuan per kilogram, a 0.21% decrease, and the price fluctuated between 14.28 - 14.54 yuan per kilogram. On the supply side, the average trading weight of live pigs across the country has decreased slightly, reflecting an adjustment in the market's slaughter rhythm. On the demand side, the operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased, indicating a short - term recovery in slaughter demand. In terms of breeding profits, the average profit per head in the self - breeding and self - raising model across the country is 179.50 yuan, a slight decrease of 3.09 yuan per head from the previous period; the theoretical profit per head from raising piglets to slaughter has shown an upward trend, with an average of 164.95 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 1.86 yuan per head. It is expected that the price of the national live - pig market may rise first and then fall next week. The slaughter volume of breeders may shrink seasonally at the end of the month, which will support the market price. However, as June arrives, the slaughter volume of live pigs is expected to gradually recover, and market supply pressure may reappear. Currently, the price difference between standard pigs and fat pigs is continuously narrowing, which significantly reduces breeders' enthusiasm for holding back pigs for weight gain, thereby accelerating the slaughter of second - fattened pigs. Looking forward to the June market, considering the gradually emerging seasonal supply pressure, the spot market generally expects pig prices to still have room to fall, which will continue to suppress the futures market, causing live - pig futures prices to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [8]. Group 11: Rubber - Affected by continuous rainfall, rubber - tapping operations in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas have been hindered, and the tight supply of raw materials has pushed up procurement prices. In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports reached 523,200 tons, a 11.93% month - on - month decrease but a 41.64% year - on - year increase. From January to April this year, the cumulative import volume was 2.2089 million tons, a 24.25% increase from the same period last year, indicating that medium - and long - term supply is still relatively abundant. Currently, the market shows a pattern of short - term supply tightness and medium - and long - term supply looseness. The operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points but 6.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of all - steel tires is 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a 4.11 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. Most enterprises maintain stable production, some increase production slightly due to foreign trade orders, but inventory pressure continues to restrict production capacity release, and some enterprises actively reduce production to control inventory. Terminal demand improvement is limited, enterprises' sales are weak, finished - product inventories are accumulating, and the inventory - reduction progress is slow. Considering inventory pressure and end - of - month maintenance plans, it is expected that the industry's operating rate may decline slightly. China's natural rubber social inventory is 1.342 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons, a 0.96% decrease. China's total social inventory of dark - colored rubber is 818,000 tons, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased by 0.7%. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly in the next period. According to market supply - demand analysis, the general trade inventory in Qingdao may decrease by about 5,000 tons. It is expected that the natural rubber market may remain range - bound in June. Continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas still restricts short - term rubber - tapping progress, but the market's expectation of supply recovery after the rainy season is increasing. Although tire operating rates are gradually recovering, terminal consumption has not shown substantial improvement. Without a clear one - way driving force, rubber prices will continue to be dominated by macro sentiment and policy orientation. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies such as state - reserve purchases on the market [10]. Group 12: PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF - Geopolitical tensions have eased locally, and oil prices may fluctuate within a narrow range. Recently, many domestic and foreign PX plants have restarted or increased their loads, increasing supply. At the same time, the strong sentiment of polyester production cuts has affected PX demand expectations. However, the supply - demand situation in the near - term is still tight, and the PXN spread still has support. PX prices are expected to fluctuate weakly following oil prices. For PTA, its supply - demand situation is okay. After continuous inventory reduction, the liquidity of the current spot market is tight, and the spot basis is strong. However, downstream polyester factories are reducing production, and the spot price will fluctuate within a range following the cost side, with the spot basis remaining strong. Attention should be paid to changes in polyester plants. For MEG, the arrival volume has been low recently, port shipping efficiency is good, and port inventories decreased significantly last week. In June, the available spot for circulation is still tight, and the spot basis will remain strong. The medium - and short - term supply - demand structure of MEG is good, which supports MEG prices. Attention should be paid to changes in polyester loads. For PR, macro - positive factors are boosting the commodity market, raw materials have strong support, and the industry's processing fee is low. Local supply is tight, and polyester bottle - chip prices are expected to rise, but the increase will be limited considering downstream follow - up. For PF, international oil prices have risen, but downstream orders are insufficient, and polyester plants are under great pressure to reduce production. It is expected that the polyester staple - fiber market will fluctuate and consolidate today [10].
集运日报:班轮公司陆续提涨6月下旬运价,关注现货市场落地情况,盘面先抑后扬,风险偏好者可考虑轻仓逢高试空-20250604
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 05:23
2025年6月4日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 欧元区5月制造业PMN初值49.4,预期49.3,前值49; 欧元区5月服务业PMW初值48.9,预期50.3,前值50.1。欧元区5月综合PMWI值49.5. 预期50.7. 前值50.4。欧元区5月Sentix投资者信心指数 -8.1,预期 -11.5,前值 -19.5。 5月财新中国制造业采购经理指数 (PMI) 录得48.3, 较4月下降2.1个百分点,2024年10月来首次跌至临界点以下。 美国5月Markit制造业PMW值52.3,创三个月新高,预期49.9,前值50.2; 服务业PMM初值52.3,创下两个月新高,预期51, 前值50.8; 综合PMI初值 52.1,预期50.3, 前值50.6。 中心 美法院裁定特政府越权,宏观情绪上或有提振,但现货市场挺价上仍 较为疲软,中美贸易战的缓和势必在90天会产生抢运的情况,需要 关注本次法院裁定后的最终结果。综上述,我们认为,一需要关注 90天现货运价区间,二是关税政策缓和下终端需求的反馈,三是裁 定的最终结果。 6月3日主力合约2508收盘2100.2,涨幅为0.76%,成交量8.64万 手,持仓量 ...
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-6-4)-20250604
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 03:39
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weakening fundamentals, with potential for price decline. Attention should be paid to the continued decline of hot metal and the market's reaction to tariffs and production cuts [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Overall, they follow the trend of finished products, with the far - month 09 contract of coking coal continuing to weaken and coke facing profit contraction [2]. - Rebar: Price is likely to fall rather than rise, facing pressure from high production and weak demand in the off - season, as well as the impact of increased tariffs [2]. - Glass: Fundamentals lack upward momentum, with demand difficult to recover significantly, and it is in a weak operation [2]. - Stock index futures/options: It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices, as the market's risk - aversion sentiment has eased [4]. - Treasury bonds: It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly, with a narrow - range rebound in the market [4]. - Gold and silver: They are expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state, with various factors such as trade policies and demand affecting their prices [4]. - Pulp: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by factors such as cost and demand [6]. - Logs: Expected to be in a volatile state, with improved fundamentals and relatively stable prices [6]. - Oils and fats: Expected to be volatile, affected by policies, production, and consumption seasons [6]. - Meal: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by trade and supply - demand factors [6]. - Soybean No. 2: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by trade disputes and supply [6]. - Soybean No. 1: Expected to be in a slightly bearish and volatile state [6]. - Live pigs: Futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, affected by supply and market expectations [8]. - Rubber: Expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state in the short term, affected by supply, demand, and policies [8]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: All in a wait - and - see state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. Core Viewpoints - The global economic situation is complex, with Trump's tariff policy intensifying trade tensions and affecting various industries. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and the economic data shows a certain degree of weakness. However, the logistics demand continues to recover [2][4]. - In the commodity market, different products have different supply - demand situations. Some are affected by production, consumption seasons, and policies, while others are affected by cost and inventory factors. The market sentiment is also affected by trade policies and geopolitical risks [2][4][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global shipments have rebounded, but demand has weakened, with iron - water production declining for three consecutive weeks. Port inventories are still decreasing, but attention should be paid to the continuous decline of iron - water. Trump's tariff increase has a negative impact on the market [2]. - Coking coal and coke: There are rumors of a 20% resource tax on coal exports from Mongolia. Coking coal production is at a high level, and downstream replenishment is weak. Coke supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall trend follows that of finished products [2]. - Rebar: Trump's tariff increase has weakened market sentiment. Supply is at a high level, while demand is poor, with a significant decline in real - estate investment and a seasonal decline in manufacturing demand [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Glass: The fundamentals are not good, with the industry's start - up rate and production increasing, but demand difficult to recover significantly due to the real - estate adjustment [2]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures/options: The performance of major stock indices has been positive, with some sectors having capital inflows and outflows. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has increased slightly, and the market has a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: They are affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, and risk - aversion. The original upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and they are expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state [4]. Forestry Products - Pulp: The cost support has weakened, and demand has entered the off - season, so it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [6]. - Logs: The fundamentals have improved, with relatively stable prices, and it is expected to be in a volatile state [6]. Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: Supply is abundant, and it is in the traditional consumption off - season. They are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as weather and production - sales [6]. - Meal: Affected by trade and supply - demand factors, it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [6]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The market price has fluctuated, with supply and demand showing different trends. Futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [8]. - Rubber: Supply is in a pattern of short - term tightness and long - term looseness, and demand has limited improvement. It is expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state in the short term [8]. Chemical Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: All in a wait - and - see state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9].
集运日报:特变量再出变数,班轮公司继续提涨6月下旬运价,盘面区间震荡,风险偏好者可考虑轻仓逢高试空-20250603
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 10:06
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is filled with a mix of long and short information, causing significant fluctuations in the market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] - It is necessary to focus on the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the court ruling [3] Group 3: Summary of Specific Information Freight Index Information - On June 2, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1252.82 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1718.11 points, down 0.1% from the previous period [2] - On May 30, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1676.25 points, up 51.55% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1067.59 points, up 36.25% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 3585.23 points, up 89.23% from the previous period [2] - On May 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2072.71 points, up 486.59 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1587 USD/TEU, up 20.50% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 57.92% from the previous period [2] - On May 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1117.61 points, up 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1375.62 points, down 1.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 944.06 points, up 4.0% from the previous period [2] Market and Policy Information - The US has restored Trump's tariff policy, indicating that tariffs could reach up to 15%, and then extended partial exemptions for China under Section 301 tariffs. Some shipping companies raised freight rates for mid - to late June [3] - The US court's ruling that the government overstepped its authority may boost macro - sentiment, but the spot market remains weak in price support. The easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush to ship within 90 days [2] Contract Information - On May 30, the main contract 2508 closed at 2075.3, down 0.25%, with a trading volume of 102,700 lots and an open interest of 41,800 lots, a decrease of 4754 lots from the previous day [3] Strategy Information - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where near - term freight rates are stronger than long - term ones. Pay attention to the court's ruling result, and for now, focus on positive arbitrage structures [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4] Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-6-3)-20250603
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 04:31
| 铁矿:本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落,但主流矿山发运量保持平稳回 | 升态势,需求端铁水产量连续三周下行,基本面边际走弱。钢材现实需求 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 继续走弱,五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局,成材下跌使得对原料采购刚 | 铁矿石 | 偏空 | 需减少。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库,说明当前 | 240 | 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港 | | | | | | | | | 口去库,关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁关税至 | 50%, | 资金和情绪端持续表现出偏空,关注市场对关税的消化反应以及减产的推 | | | | | | | | | | | | 进程度,本轮贸易冲突缓和带来的反弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者,则 | 继续持有。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 煤焦:焦煤产量高位,下游补库动力不足,523 | 家样本矿山原煤库存刷出 | 历年新高,随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加,远月 | ...
集运日报:宏观情绪整体偏多,叠加多头资金进入,午后快速拉涨,盘面大幅震荡,风险偏好者可考虑逢高试空,端午安康-20250530
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 05:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro sentiment is generally bullish, and with the entry of long - position funds, the market pulled up rapidly in the afternoon with significant volatility. Risk - preferring investors can consider short - selling on rallies [2][3]. - It's necessary to focus on the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies, and the final result of the court ruling [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary Based on Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On May 26, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1247.05 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1719.79 points, up 18.9%. On May 23, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02%; for the European route, it was 783.58 points, up 4.35%; for the US - West route, it was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On May 23, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1586.12 points, up 106.73 points. The SCFI European route price was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12%; the US - West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2%; for the European route, it was 1392.61 points, down 2.6%; for the US - West route, it was 908.14 points, up 3.6% [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - Eurozone: In May, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); the service PMI preliminary value was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [2]. - US: In May, the Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2); the service PMI preliminary value was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8); the composite PMI preliminary value was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [3]. 3.3 Market Conditions - On May 29, the main contract 2508 closed at 2131.0, with a 6.34% increase, a trading volume of 131,600 lots, and an open interest of 46,600 lots, an increase of 2813 lots from the previous day [3]. - Spot freight rates are gradually stabilizing, which supports the market to some extent. However, due to the unclear peak - season momentum, there was intense competition between long and short positions in the morning. In the afternoon, the market price was quickly pulled up and then fluctuated slightly, possibly due to the generally bullish macro situation and the entry of some long - position funds [3]. 3.4 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short - sell when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where near - term freight rates are stronger than long - term ones. It is necessary to pay attention to the result of the court ruling. Currently, the market is volatile, and it is advisable to mainly use positive - spread arbitrage [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies. Wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [4]. 3.5 Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin of the company for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4].
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-5-30)-20250530
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 01:27
交易咨询:0571-85165192,85058093 2025 年 5 月 30 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示(2025-5-30) | | | | 铁矿:前期政策与情绪驱动的上涨动力逐步减弱,短期内回归基本面。钢 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 材现实需求继续走弱,五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局,成材下跌使得对 | | | | | 原料采购刚需减少。当前钢厂盈利率小幅回落,本期日均铁水产量环比回 | | | 铁矿石 | 偏空 | 落 1.69 万吨至 241.91 万吨,铁水减量超市场预期,叠加外需出口提前透 | | | | | 支,在全年总需求无增量的基础下,会形成明显的前高后低格局。铁矿港 | | | | | 口库存水平仍相对偏高,对价格形成一定的压力。本轮贸易冲突缓和带来 | | | | | 的反弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者,则继续持有。 | | | | | 煤焦:焦煤产量高位,五一节后下游补库动力不足,523 家样本矿山原煤 | | | | | 库存刷出历年新高,随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加,远月 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡偏弱 | 09 ...
集运日报:美法院裁定特政府越权关税,今日受宏观因素或反弹,但情绪提振有限,风险偏好者可考虑逢高试空-20250529
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 05:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US court's ruling that the Trump administration overstepped its authority in imposing tariffs may boost macro - sentiment, but the spot market remains weak in price support. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [4]. - The spot freight rate shows a slight shock without an obvious peak - season trend, and the futures market fluctuates downward. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary of Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Indexes - On May 26, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1247.05 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1719.79 points, up 18.9% from the previous period [3]. - On May 23, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 783.58 points, up 4.35% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% from the previous period [3]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1586.12 points on May 23, up 106.73 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95% from the previous period [3]. - On May 23, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1392.61 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 908.14 points, up 3.6% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, the highest in 33 months; the April services PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 50.5). The April composite PMI preliminary value was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [3]. - China's March manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The March Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [3]. - The US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [4]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 28, the main contract 2508 closed at 1949.5, down 4.08%, with a trading volume of 77,000 lots and an open interest of 43,800 lots, an increase of 594 lots from the previous day [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The 2506 contract is based on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly test short positions when it rebounds above 2250 and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate trend. Attention should be paid to the result of the court ruling, and for now, it is mainly in a positive - spread structure [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rallies and wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [5]. 3.5 Contract Rules - The daily price limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16% [5]. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 26% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [5].